live from San Francisco it's the cube covering micron inside 2018 brought to you by micron welcome back to San Francisco Bay everybody this is the cube the leader in live tech coverage my name is Dave Valentin I'm here with my co-host David Floria we're covering micron insight 2018 really bring it together memory storage and artificial intelligence talking about AI for good talking about changing the way in which we work new workloads Raj to Lori is here he's the senior vice president and general manager of microns a booming mobile business unit rise I think it's the fastest growing business unit at micron at least of XY's and Keith crescent is here is the senior vice a senior vice president at Qualcomm Keith welcome thank gentlemen thanks for coming on the cube okay thank you so right let's let's start with you what are the big trends that you see that are driving that at 60% growth rate in your business yeah I mean we are finding now that you know mobile phones and use of memory in mobile phones and this is DRAM and also use of storage in mobile phones this is where we actually you know like flash both are growing inside a mobile phone you know we've seen people launch you know four and six gigabyte phones and now we have our customers talking about 8 and 10 and 12 gigabyte phones in the future and one of the big reasons is the applications you know a lot of machine learning and AI applications from the phones and those are driving the need for a lot of increased both storage and memory so we talked about what's changing in your business over the last several years I mean mobile obviously exploded onto the scene but now people are talking about AI and mobile and and and just increase use cases and applications so what's going on from your perspective yeah I think my handset perspective there's been some visual changes right the screens got a little bigger the bezels get smaller phones get a little thinner and so you see some of the visual cues but really the excitement of what's going on underneath the visual cues so the amount of AI processing is accelerating at a rapid pace a lot of advanced cameras you know moving from two three four and now their phones with five cameras cameras to recognize depth perception there's a voice recognition so there's a lot of AI processing and a lot of capability getting into the phone for a variety of applications okay so voice recognition that makes sense you'd use AI for that but you're talking about AI in in visual and in in the handset talk more about that explain how that all works yeah so so actually I would argue that today imaging is probably the primary application of AI so cameras used to be just capturing pixels but now it's about much more than capturing pixels it's about understanding what those pixels are so are they recognizing objects or food or something else or is it facial recognition for things like payments and biometrics and so the cameras now are much more intelligent and with multiple cameras you're adding depth information so then you start to get to much higher levels of realism for things like avatar and gaming and other areas where the camera is capturing and also perceiving so not a hot dog for you fans of the show Silicon Valley so but Raj what does this all mean for the the memory and storage requirements yeah I mean eyes keep mentioned I think you know the mobile phone you know with the process from Qualcomm and and other processor vendors has really gotten to have a lot more camera applications and a lot more AI applications now there's a there's a difference when you actually drive applications that need AI and machine learning versus other applications and the difference is that the compute paradigm in AI and ml is different in the sense that these are like complex neural networks that need a load of lot of data very close to the processor to achieve the result so as more AI applications come in we are actually finding that the customers which are Qualcomm customers and our customers are asking for more processing from the airside but they're also asking for more higher speeds higher density memory to kite to couple tightly with the process so they can realize these AI applications for the consumers and also storage because sometimes you want to store a lot of the images and videos on the card so both storage and memory are increasing as applications come in but I'd like to ask about the gaming side of things and the ante AR that seems to me that is is starting to improve to a level which is frightening linear reality what do you have to do to get it to that stage where you can have true VR and have games for example which exploit that sure so maybe first I'll talk about gaming specifically gaming obviously continues to grow a lot of money in gaming gaming tournaments and so forth the gaming certainly is getting more realistic with better graphics and so forth better displays multiplayer gaming very hot right multiplayer gaming requires you know very fast connections very low latency connections to another source so play multiple players can play at the same time also many times for games you'll have a play with partners maybe you're on a team of five but now in coming soon maybe that team of five you don't need to find that fifth person or that fourth person maybe there's an AI engine that's running similar to the human capability and you're actually playing with a simulated player right from teams so there's in that require opens up a whole new area of processing for the games and then I think for AR and BR AR is a little further out than VR err requires some more advancements with respect to optics and so forth VR is taking you know high-end displays and AI and graphics kind of packaging it all into one to really change the paradigm of how you interact with the computer how does 5g change things is it is it as much of a game changer as people think or is there just so much data that it sort of allows us to keep pace I wonder if you can talk about 5g yeah so so you know every ten years or so there's a G transition 3G and 99 4G in 2009 now 5g in 2019 so it's not a ten-year cadence and every time when you have a G transition you couple that with a transition in computing and it changes the paradigm so what's gonna happen is 5g is gonna bring a lot more capacity a lot lower latency at the same time AI is coming in and that together is going to create a pretty powerful platform for applications for the future and then of course there's just so much more data now how do you guys keep because the you mentioned you know you've been talking to the to the street and you mentioned this morning that the the rate of bit density that is is moderating so how do you guys keep up where are your investments that allow you to keep pace yeah I mean we have a so just maybe a little bit of comment on 5g I think as the bandwidth to the device gets faster and faster there's more and more data that comes in that you can imagine for example one of the things people out of people like to do you know is to you know download content if you look at Netflix if you look at Amazon Prime if you look at even DirecTV and I have all of those you can actually download the content now and watch them offline so as it happens and that content gets to be 4k and an even higher frame rates the amount of storage that's needed to download that is getting more and more like you know you know my wife upgraded her phone the other day and the first thing she said is I want an entire Netflix season on my phone when I'm in the gym so so you know there's simple things like that I've changed a lot you know that's one of the reasons why the storage is getting so much now when you go to 5g and the download speed gets higher you can download like a 4k video really quickly now you got to put it somewhere after you downloaded so that's actually driving the need for this so before people wouldn't like download a 4k video because where would you put it so as we increase storage that kind of stuff comes really fast because you couldn't you know take a long time to download before so as the bandwidth gets higher the storage requirements the memory requirements are getting higher now what we are doing on that front is we're investing a lot you know as Sanjay and Scott talked earlier both in our fab capacity is both in our technology transitions we have a lot of new interesting technologies like new emerging memories they're actually like 3d crosspoint we talked about that kind of blur the line between storage and memory so there's a lot of new interesting technologies that will actually take advantage of that super exciting time so going back to the image processing side of that one of the trends it seems to me is that the processing is going further and further to the edge itself and going inside the camera itself do you talk a little bit about that and what it's going to take to to put that that your memory technology or bandwidth right inside the camera itself sure so so there's no doubt that you want to maximize the capability on the edge as a first step and then you want to reduce the late as much as possible to the cloud as a second step so on the edge you know if you had something for example if I'm taking a picture of you and I want face recognition I don't want to take every frame and send it up to the clouds I'm gonna waste bandwidth so on I want that capability on device and that's true for a variety of different applications you want to maximize the capability on device and then focus on the fast connection so the cloud and the device from a latency and bandwidth perspective are much tightly more tightly coupled you know you think about the evolution of computing you know obviously everything was centralized and then you know pcs the world was about pcs back then it was kind of the the centralization with it was a bit blip on the screen compared to the pcs was everything remember that and then of course mobile drove cloud through the roof and now with the edge and cloud and and mobile you're seeing just this ubiquitous capability that senses now you bring in AI you bring in machine intelligence it what do you guys envision for the for the next 10 years in terms of what the world looks like centralized decentralized distributed intelligent I mean it's just mind-boggling what's your vision well I think if you look at client devices client devices certainly generate a lot of data maybe we get a little bit of data from a sensor and a bridge but maybe we'll get a lot of data from the car traveling across that bridge and what you need to do is you need to make sense of that data locally and then transmit it back to the cloud so you want the cloud to have the most useful data or sorted data right data that can then improve you know automated driving or reduce traffic accidents and so forth but you don't want all the data sent there so what's gonna happen is on the edge there's literally you know a device is going from smartphones where there's about one and a half billion a year to billions even trillions of IOT connected devices any device that has a computing element also is can have a connectivity element also is going to have an AI element so it's gonna be a much more connected world as opposed to just connected people yeah I mean I think kids keep explained it very well you know you know if you step back a little bit I think that the history of technology and evolution has been very similar right in industry for a while but we all remember the times when we said we just did month one mainframe and everyone needs dumb terminals right then we went on to say hey you know what I think distributed computing with everyone having a pcs that I think you do now we are back to maybe we should have everything in the cloud and the edge devices so I actually think in a world goes cyclical and the more you do at the edge the more it drives the need for the cloud and we call it the virtuous cycle and I think the best way to think about it is you want the HD devices to send information not data which means they need to be for data needs to be processed with memory and compute to become information and then you send the information to the edge yeah I guess my point was that you know I've been around a while too and you're going to see the pendulum swing I feel like the pendulum is not swinging anymore it's just exploded inside it's really an exciting time in our industry guys thanks very much for coming thank you appreciate thank you all right keep right there everybody we'll be back at micron insight from the Embarcadero you're watching the cube right back [Music]

>> Announcer: Live from Orlando, Florida, it's theCube, covering Grace Hopper Celebration of Women in Computing. Brought to you by SiliconANGLE media. >> Welcome back to theCube's coverage of Grace Hopper Conference here in Orlando, Florida. I'm your host, Rebecca Knight. We're joined by Vicki Mealer-Burke, she is the Vice-President and Chief Diversity Officer at Qualcomm. Thanks so much for joining us, Vicki. >> Thank you, Rebecca, it's great to be here. >> So, before we the camera's were rolling, you were describing how you've been at Qualcomm for 20 years, but you've been in this job for one year. And you're the first person to ever hold the position. >> That's right. >> So, tell our viewers how it came about. >> Yeah, I have been at Qualcomm almost 21 years now, and mostly in product development, product management, and then, my last role was as a general manager of one of our wholly-owned subsidiaries and I really thought that my run at Qualcomm was done, because we're consolidating a lot of our businesses. I started working on some women's programs while I was shutting down our last business, and it just so happened, it was the same time the company decided to create a chief diversity officer. My initial reaction was, "That's so great, we're going to "get one of those people, and we really need them." I wanted to be a champion for that person, and then I started getting myself interested and thinking that I could really be a change agent and a leader for the company. And kind of leave a legacy back to the company, a company that's actually been really, really good to me. >> So, when you were thinking about this job, you described it as a business problem that needed to be solved. And as someone who'd been at Qualcomm for two decades, how did you define the business problem? >> The way that my brain works is, I'm a problem solver and that's why I got into product management. And so, I really thought that if the company saw this as compliance or some sort of regulatory issue, I would really have no real interest, but I really knew that we could solve the probably by likely re-engineering some of the processes that had been in place. And, Qualcomm has had a tremendous growth over the years, and we've ramped from, I was employee 5,000 to now well over 30,000, so many of our processes really just had to be re-engineered. And I knew that I could speak that language to our leaders, we understand re-engineering problems. So, I really tried to get down to root cause and focus on a couple of the areas that would really make a big difference, and discuss the business value of why we were doing this. >> So, what are the areas that you are focusing on? Just give our viewers of a sense of the the top two or three areas where you think you can have the most impact? >> There's really two levers that I'm focused on. One is talent acquisition, so continuing to bring the best and brightest minds, the most innovative people in the world now to help us move our wireless technology into the 5G world. The possibilities are endless so we need all kinds of bright minds looking at this from all different kinds of directions. That's the diversity piece of it. The second big lever is, once we get them in, we have to keep 'em. I mean, this show shows how talented women engineers are really at premium, and so the more we're hiring, the more we're losing people on the other side. People call that the leaky pipeline or the leaky bucket. So, I'm working on retention programs to make sure that once we get our diverse talent in the door that we can keep them by really supporting, promoting, progressing them, making sure that they have wide variety of opportunities and that they see a bright future for themselves at Qualcomm. >> So, are you starting new programs? Is this about mentorship, is this about making sure there is flexible work? I mean, what are some of the nitty-gritty things that Qualcomm is doing? >> Yeah, we have started a series of sessions with our senior-most leaders, what we call, like, our directors and above. We have terrific support at the C-level at Qualcomm, terrific support. But at a 30,000 person company, you really need to get into that next couple-down layers. And so, we're doing training about, basically, how to run an inclusive team, how to empower. One of the big things that we're training on is the process of, how do you pick people for that next big project? And, like many managers, they go back to the people that have been successful year after year. What we're trying to do is disrupt that and either create, like, a apprenticeship, product leader positions where someone can tag along and lead and understand how those projects were run so well. But that's what we need to do is really try to expand the project opportunities, that's when people get a lot of visibility, a lot of experience, and that's where their own talents will just then accelerate them through our levels. >> You were talking about the need to make sure that a couple rungs down from the senior brass, really understand that there is a real business case for diverse teams that are collaborative. How receptive are these managers in your experience, and what do you say that really tips them over? >> So, Qualcomm is full of extremely bright people. There's an awareness and the benefit of the doubt that we're giving all of our employees is, "Let's give you the "facts, let's make you aware, let's let you drive the "solution, so that we're all working together." We don't have any kind of quotas, we just want to make managers, give them all the data and have them make good decisions, and empower them to be part of the solution. That empowerment need is where we're building trust with those managers. We're not saying, "Oh, you've been doing it wrong for "a million years." We're saying, "Here's what you can do to get better. "Here's what you can do to have a more engaged team. "Here's what you can do to have a more empowered team." That leads to productivity, productivity goes straight to the bottom line, and it makes sense. So, we're trying to do it more in a partnership, giving them the respect that they've earned with the positions that they're in, and empowering them to be the change. >> So, earlier in your career, you worked on some really exciting projects in terms of wearables, in terms of smart-cities, in terms of home-base technology. Do you miss the tech, I mean, do you see yourself going back and working in that? >> Yeah, it's a great question. When you're in the business, there are daily, weekly, incremental successes. We fixed that bug, we got that contract, this is really more, I call it kind of like forming jello, it's hard to get those feelings everyday like you're making progress on something. I do miss the technology, this is the biggest problem I think I've ever been tasked to solve, so that is extremely inspiring, and luckily, I get to work side-by-side with a lot of our best technology leaders. But, I do miss the technology, for sure. >> And working in the business? >> Sure. >> So, you talked about the, sort of, difficulty with measuring incremental progress, and then really we're at a point in time where the Google manifesto and Travis Kalanick's antics are front-page news. Is this discouraging, or is does it make you more excited by the cause and what you're doing? >> There are aspects to it that are discouraging, but I am really a glass half-full type of person, I think shining the light, really shining this big, bright light on the issue makes 99% of the people in our business really say, "Wow, I can't believe that's really going on." So, I actually think it's good, it's allowing us to have these conversations which are uncomfortable and a lot of leaders want to have the conversations but they don't know what to say. So, all of these things coming out in the press just give us that entry to be able to say, "Let's talk about it." And we've been doing that at Qualcomm, we do it with our employees, I want people to feel free to ask questions and not think that they should know it all. This is actually a fairly new area, so we've got to allow all of our leaders to have a level of comfort, but also know they don't have to be perfect in every single thing they say, just be inquisitive and really start the discussions. >> When you are pitching Qualcomm as a potential employer to young women, what is your value proposition? We heard Fei-Fei Li during the keynote talk about there is a real crisis if women are not actively involved in creating the next generation of artificial intelligence, and we're half of the end users, that there is going to be this real disconnect between the technology and how it's used. >> And as a product leader, I have always been fascinated by these public stories of product failures that no one was trying to make them fail but it was very clear that they didn't have a diverse team, because they just had some really big misses. So, one of the things we talk about at Qualcomm, you know, we're a wireless technology company, we started with 3G and now 4GLTE, that whole wireless technology, that backbone of it, is all Qualcomm tech, and it allows us to go into 5G. 5G is where the thing gets exponentially more interesting, more exciting, a much lighter set of problems to solve can be solved through 5G. So, if we don't have a diverse set of people thinking about all the different use-cases, variables, that we can use 5G technology, we'll miss something big. And I know that our CEO believes that, we've talked about it, we are inventors, we are innovators, and we have to have a wider variety of people that are being inventors of the future. >> So, I just want to wrap up here but finally ask you about this conference, this is not your first Grace Hopper, and it's a very young conference and you're really looked at as a veteran, I mean, me, too. We're the old bags about this place. (laughing) Can you just describe a little bit, I know you said that you were introducing one of the keynote speakers and you got to meet a personal hero of yours, just what it's like to be here? >> It's really amazing, last year was my first year. I was not the Chief Diversity Officer a year ago, yet, and I came here and people like, Telle Whitney, who you read about, I've gotten to meet here, I can hug her. >> Rebecca: You'll never was your hand again. >> I know, it's amazing. The women that have been leading this for years and years and years, and now what this has turned out to be, I was talking to one of my colleagues, and I go to a lot of technical conferences and business conferences like CES, CES is almost where we should be here meeting in the middle, a lot more men here, in years to come, and a lot more women at CES. And I think that's when we'll know that we're actually making progress. >> Well, Vicki, thank you so much for joining us. >> Yes, thank you, thanks for having me. >> I'm Rebecca Knight, we'll have more from theCube's coverage of the Grace Hopper just after this. (upbeat music)

(energetic instrumental music) >> Hey, everyone. Welcome to SiliconANGLE CUBE News here from Mobile World Congress. This is a Mobile World Congress news update. Dell in the news here partners with leading infrastructure companies, Dell Technologies, really setting up an ecosystem. Here, Dell, with leading telecom and infrastructure players accelerating the network adoption, announcing that it's launching the Dell's Open Telecom Ecosystem community. A community of multiple telecom partners and communication service providers aimed at becoming a unifying force in the telecom industry. This announcement comes just days after Dell introduced a host of new hardware, platforms designed to help the teleconference build cloud-native open radio network access, also called RAN architectures, using proprietary and sub-components for various suppliers. Dell's Open Telecom Ecosystem community has already partnered with Nokia, Qualcomm, Amdocs and Juniper Networks to create new offerings aimed at accelerating open RAN price performance for communication service providers. This includes creating a new virtual RAN offering using Open Telecom Ecosystem Labs, and as the center for testing and validation, building next-generation 5G virtualized distributed units and deploy and automated validated 5G-SA network with various partners across the ecosystem. Dell's promising that this is just the beginning of the collaboration with the telecom industry as it seeks to accelerate the adoption of 5G networking technologies and solve key industry challenges. More action's on the ground, go to thecube.net, theCUBE is broadcasting live for four days, Dave Vellante, Lisa Martin. I'm in the studios in Palo Alto bringing you the news. Lot of action happening, of course. Go to siliconangle.com to catch all the breaking news. We have a special report. We already got 10 plus stories already flowing. Probably have another 10 today. Day two tomorrow as MWC continues to power more news coverage for the edge and cloud-native technologies. (pensive ambient music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> While never really meant to be a consumer tech event, the rapid ascendancy of smartphones sucked much of the air out of Mobile World Congress over the years, now MWC. And while the device manufacturers continue to have a major presence at the show, the maturity of intelligent devices, longer life cycles, and the disaggregation of the network stack, have put enterprise technologies front and center in the telco business. Semiconductor manufacturers, network equipment players, infrastructure companies, cloud vendors, software providers, and a spate of startups are eyeing the trillion dollar plus communications industry as one of the next big things to watch this decade. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we bring you part two of our ongoing coverage of MWC '23, with some new data on enterprise players specifically in large telco environments, a brief glimpse at some of the pre-announcement news and corresponding themes ahead of MWC, and some of the key announcement areas we'll be watching at the show on theCUBE. Now, last week we shared some ETR data that showed how traditional enterprise tech players were performing, specifically within the telecoms vertical. Here's a new look at that data from ETR, which isolates the same companies, but cuts the data for what ETR calls large telco. The N in this cut is 196, down from 288 last week when we included all company sizes in the dataset. Now remember the two dimensions here, on the y-axis is net score, or spending momentum, and on the x-axis is pervasiveness in the data set. The table insert in the upper left informs how the dots and companies are plotted, and that red dotted line, the horizontal line at 40%, that indicates a highly elevated net score. Now while the data are not dramatically different in terms of relative positioning, there are a couple of changes at the margin. So just going down the list and focusing on net score. Azure is comparable, but slightly lower in this sector in the large telco than it was overall. Google Cloud comes in at number two, and basically swapped places with AWS, which drops slightly in the large telco relative to overall telco. Snowflake is also slightly down by one percentage point, but maintains its position. Remember Snowflake, overall, its net score is much, much higher when measuring across all verticals. Snowflake comes down in telco, and relative to overall, a little bit down in large telco, but it's making some moves to attack this market that we'll talk about in a moment. Next are Red Hat OpenStack and Databricks. About the same in large tech telco as they were an overall telco. Then there's Dell next that has a big presence at MWC and is getting serious about driving 16G adoption, and new servers, and edge servers, and other partnerships. Cisco and Red Hat OpenShift basically swapped spots when moving from all telco to large telco, as Cisco drops and Red Hat bumps up a bit. And VMware dropped about four percentage points in large telco. Accenture moved up dramatically, about nine percentage points in big telco, large telco relative to all telco. HPE dropped a couple of percentage points. Oracle stayed about the same. And IBM surprisingly dropped by about five points. So look, I understand not a ton of change in terms of spending momentum in the large sector versus telco overall, but some deltas. The bottom line for enterprise players is one, they're just getting started in this new disruption journey that they're on as the stack disaggregates. Two, all these players have experience in delivering horizontal solutions, but now working with partners and identifying big problems to be solved, and three, many of these companies are generally not the fastest moving firms relative to smaller disruptive disruptors. Now, cloud has been an exception in fairness. But the good news for the legacy infrastructure and IT companies is that the telco transformation and the 5G buildout is going to take years. So it's moving at a pace that is very favorable to many of these companies. Okay, so looking at just some of the pre-announcement highlights that have hit the wire this week, I want to give you a glimpse of the diversity of innovation that is occurring in the telecommunication space. You got semiconductor manufacturers, device makers, network equipment players, carriers, cloud vendors, enterprise tech companies, software companies, startups. Now we've included, you'll see in this list, we've included OpeRAN, that logo, because there's so much buzz around the topic and we're going to come back to that. But suffice it to say, there's no way we can cover all the announcements from the 2000 plus exhibitors at the show. So we're going to cherry pick here and make a few call outs. Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced an acquisition of an Italian private cellular network company called AthoNet. Zeus Kerravala wrote about it on SiliconANGLE if you want more details. Now interestingly, HPE has a partnership with Solana, which also does private 5G. But according to Zeus, Solona is more of an out-of-the-box solution, whereas AthoNet is designed for the core and requires more integration. And as you'll see in a moment, there's going to be a lot of talk at the show about private network. There's going to be a lot of news there from other competitors, and we're going to be watching that closely. And while many are concerned about the P5G, private 5G, encroaching on wifi, Kerravala doesn't see it that way. Rather, he feels that these private networks are really designed for more industrial, and you know mission critical environments, like factories, and warehouses that are run by robots, et cetera. 'Cause these can justify the increased expense of private networks. Whereas wifi remains a very low cost and flexible option for, you know, whatever offices and homes. Now, over to Dell. Dell announced its intent to go hard after opening up the telco network with the announcement that in the second half of this year it's going to begin shipping its infrastructure blocks for Red Hat. Remember it's like kind of the converged infrastructure for telco with a more open ecosystem and sort of more flexible, you know, more mature engineered system. Dell has also announced a range of PowerEdge servers for a variety of use cases. A big wide line bringing forth its 16G portfolio and aiming squarely at the telco space. Dell also announced, here we go, a private wireless offering with airspan, and Expedo, and a solution with AthoNet, the company HPE announced it was purchasing. So I guess Dell and HPE are now partnering up in the private wireless space, and yes, hell is freezing over folks. We'll see where that relationship goes in the mid- to long-term. Dell also announced new lab and certification capabilities, which we said last week was going to be critical for the further adoption of open ecosystem technology. So props to Dell for, you know, putting real emphasis and investment in that. AWS also made a number of announcements in this space including private wireless solutions and associated managed services. AWS named Deutsche Telekom, Orange, T-Mobile, Telefonica, and some others as partners. And AWS announced the stepped up partnership, specifically with T-Mobile, to bring AWS services to T-Mobile's network portfolio. Snowflake, back to Snowflake, announced its telecom data cloud. Remember we showed the data earlier, it's Snowflake not as strong in the telco sector, but they're continuing to move toward this go-to market alignment within key industries, realigning their go-to market by vertical. It also announced that AT&T, and a number of other partners, are collaborating to break down data silos specifically in telco. Look, essentially, this is Snowflake taking its core value prop to the telco vertical and forming key partnerships that resonate in the space. So think simplification, breaking down silos, data sharing, eventually data monetization. Samsung previewed its future capability to allow smartphones to access satellite services, something Apple has previously done. AMD, Intel, Marvell, Qualcomm, are all in the act, all the semiconductor players. Qualcomm for example, announced along with Telefonica, and Erickson, a 5G millimeter network that will be showcased in Spain at the event this coming week using Qualcomm Snapdragon chipset platform, based on none other than Arm technology. Of course, Arm we said is going to dominate the edge, and is is clearly doing so. It's got the volume advantage over, you know, traditional Intel, you know, X86 architectures. And it's no surprise that Microsoft is touting its open AI relationship. You're going to hear a lot of AI talk at this conference as is AI is now, you know, is the now topic. All right, we could go on and on and on. There's just so much going on at Mobile World Congress or MWC, that we just wanted to give you a glimpse of some of the highlights that we've been watching. Which brings us to the key topics and issues that we'll be exploring at MWC next week. We touched on some of this last week. A big topic of conversation will of course be, you know, 5G. Is it ever going to become real? Is it, is anybody ever going to make money at 5G? There's so much excitement around and anticipation around 5G. It has not lived up to the hype, but that's because the rollout, as we've previous reported, is going to take years. And part of that rollout is going to rely on the disaggregation of the hardened telco stack, as we reported last week and in previous Breaking Analysis episodes. OpenRAN is a big component of that evolution. You know, as our RAN intelligent controllers, RICs, which essentially the brain of OpenRAN, if you will. Now as we build out 5G networks at massive scale and accommodate unprecedented volumes of data and apply compute-hungry AI to all this data, the issue of energy efficiency is going to be front and center. It has to be. Not only is it a, you know, hot political issue, the reality is that improving power efficiency is compulsory or the whole vision of telco's future is going to come crashing down. So chip manufacturers, equipment makers, cloud providers, everybody is going to be doubling down and clicking on this topic. Let's talk about AI. AI as we said, it is the hot topic right now, but it is happening not only in consumer, with things like ChatGPT. And think about the theme of this Breaking Analysis in the enterprise, AI in the enterprise cannot be ChatGPT. It cannot be error prone the way ChatGPT is. It has to be clean, reliable, governed, accurate. It's got to be ethical. It's got to be trusted. Okay, we're going to have Zeus Kerravala on the show next week and definitely want to get his take on private networks and how they're going to impact wifi. You know, will private networks cannibalize wifi? If not, why not? He wrote about this again on SiliconANGLE if you want more details, and we're going to unpack that on theCUBE this week. And finally, as always we'll be following the data flows to understand where and how telcos, cloud players, startups, software companies, disruptors, legacy companies, end customers, how are they going to make money from new data opportunities? 'Cause we often say in theCUBE, don't ever bet against data. All right, that's a wrap for today. Remember theCUBE is going to be on location at MWC 2023 next week. We got a great set. We're in the walkway in between halls four and five, right in Congress Square, stand CS-60. Look for us, we got a full schedule. If you got a great story or you have news, stop by. We're going to try to get you on the program. I'll be there with Lisa Martin, co-hosting, David Nicholson as well, and the entire CUBE crew, so don't forget to come by and see us. I want to thank Alex Myerson, who's on production and manages the podcast, and Ken Schiffman, as well, in our Boston studio. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor-in-chief over at SiliconANGLE.com. He does some great editing. Thank you. All right, remember all these episodes they are available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcasts. I publish each week on Wikibon.com and SiliconANGLE.com. All the video content is available on demand at theCUBE.net, or you can email me directly if you want to get in touch David.Vellante@SiliconANGLE.com or DM me @DVellante, or comment on our LinkedIn posts. And please do check out ETR.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next week at Mobile World Congress '23, MWC '23, or next time on Breaking Analysis. (bright music)

(gentle music) >> Okay, welcome back to Supercloud 2, live here in Palo Alto, California for our live stage performance. Supercloud 2 is our second Supercloud event. We're going to get these out as fast as we can every couple months. It's our second one, you'll see two and three this year. I'm John Furrier, my co-host, Dave Vellante. A panel here to break down the Supercloud momentum, the wave, and the developer impact that we bringing back Vittorio Viarengo, who's a VP for Cross-Cloud Services at VMware. Sarbjeet Johal, industry influencer and Analyst at StackPayne, his company, Cube alumni and Influencer. Sarbjeet, great to see you. Vittorio, thanks for coming back. >> Nice to be here. >> My pleasure. >> Vittorio, you just gave a keynote where we unpacked the cross-cloud services, what VMware is doing, how you guys see it, not just from VMware's perspective, but VMware looking out broadly at the industry and developers came up and you were like, "Developers, developer, developers", kind of a goof on the Steve Ballmer famous meme that everyone's seen. This is a huge star, sorry, I mean a big piece of it. The developers are the canary in the coal mines. They're the ones who are being asked to code the digital transformation, which is fully business transformation and with the market the way it is right now in terms of the accelerated technology, every enterprise grade business model's changing. The technology is evolving, the builders are kind of, they want go faster. I'm saying they're stuck in a way, but that's my opinion, but there's a lot of growth. >> Yeah. >> The impact, they got to get released up and let it go. Those developers need to accelerate faster. It's been a big part of productivity, and the conversations we've had. So developer impact is huge in Supercloud. What's your, what do you guys think about this? We'll start with you, Sarbjeet. >> Yeah, actually, developers are the masons of the digital empires I call 'em, right? They lay every brick and build all these big empires. On the left side of the SDLC, or the, you know, when you look at the system operations, developer is number one cost from economic side of things, and from technology side of things, they are tech hungry people. They are developers for that reason because developer nights are long, hours are long, they forget about when to eat, you know, like, I've been a developer, I still code. So you want to keep them happy, you want to hug your developers. We always say that, right? Vittorio said that right earlier. The key is to, in this context, in the Supercloud context, is that developers don't mind mucking around with platforms or APIs or new languages, but they hate the infrastructure part. That's a fact. They don't want to muck around with servers. It's friction for them, it is like they don't want to muck around even with the VMs. So they want the programmability to the nth degree. They want to automate everything, so that's how they think and cloud is the programmable infrastructure, industrialization of infrastructure in many ways. So they are happy with where we are going, and we need more abstraction layers for some developers. By the way, I have this sort of thinking frame for last year or so, not all developers are same, right? So if you are a developer at an ISV, you behave differently. If you are a developer at a typical enterprise, you behave differently or you are forced to behave differently because you're not writing software.- >> Well, developers, developers have changed, I mean, Vittorio, you and I were talking earlier on the keynote, and this is kind of the key point is what is a developer these days? If everything is software enabled, I mean, even hardware interviews we do with Nvidia, and Amazon and other people building silicon, they all say the same thing, "It's software on a chip." So you're seeing the role of software up and down the stack and the role of the stack is changing. The old days of full stack developer, what does that even mean? I mean, the cloud is a half a stack kind of right there. So, you know, developers are certainly more agile, but cloud native, I mean VMware is epitome of operations, IT operations, and the Tan Zoo initiative, you guys started, you went after the developers to look at them, and ask them questions, "What do you need?", "How do you transform the Ops from virtualization?" Again, back to your point, so this hardware abstraction, what is software, what is cloud native? It's kind of messy equation these days. How do you guys grokel with that? >> I would argue that developers don't want the Supercloud. I dropped that up there, so, >> Dave: Why not? >> Because developers, they, once they get comfortable in AWS or Google, because they're doing some AI stuff, which is, you know, very trendy right now, or they are in IBM, any of the IPA scaler, professional developers, system developers, they love that stuff, right? Yeah, they don't, the infrastructure gets in the way, but they're just, the problem is, and I think the Supercloud should be driven by the operators because as we discussed, the operators have been left behind because they're busy with day-to-day jobs, and in most cases IT is centralized, developers are in the business units. >> John: Yeah. >> Right? So they get the mandate from the top, say, "Our bank, they're competing against". They gave teenagers or like young people the ability to do all these new things online, and Venmo and all this integration, where are we? "Oh yeah, we can do it", and then build it, and then deploy it, "Okay, we caught up." but now the operators are back in the private cloud trying to keep the backend system running and so I think the Supercloud is needed for the primarily, initially, for the operators to get in front of the developers, fit in the workflow, but lay the foundation so it is secure.- >> So, so I love this thinking because I love the rift, because the rift points to what is the target audience for the value proposition and if you're a developer, Supercloud enables you so you shouldn't have to deal with Supercloud. >> Exactly. >> What you're saying is get the operating environment or operating system done properly, whether it's architecture, building the platform, this comes back to architecture platform conversations. What is the future platform? Is it a vendor supplied or is it customer created platform? >> Dave: So developers want best to breed, is what you just said. >> Vittorio: Yeah. >> Right and operators, they, 'cause developers don't want to deal with governance, they don't want to deal with security, >> No. >> They don't want to deal with spinning up infrastructure. That's the role of the operator, but that's where Supercloud enables, to John's point, the developer, so to your question, is it a platform where the platform vendor is responsible for the architecture, or there is it an architectural standard that spans multiple clouds that has to emerge? Based on what you just presented earlier, Vittorio, you are the determinant of the architecture. It's got to be open, but you guys determine that, whereas the nirvana is, "Oh no, it's all open, and it just kind of works." >> Yeah, so first of all, let's all level set on one thing. You cannot tell developers what to do. >> Dave: Right, great >> At least great developers, right? Cannot tell them what to do. >> Dave: So that's what, that's the way I want to sort of, >> You can tell 'em what's possible. >> There's a bottle on that >> If you tell 'em what's possible, they'll test it, they'll look at it, but if you try to jam it down their throat, >> Yeah. >> Dave: You can't tell 'em how to do it, just like your point >> Let me answer your answer the question. >> Yeah, yeah. >> So I think we need to build an architect, help them build an architecture, but it cannot be proprietary, has to be built on what works in the cloud and so what works in the cloud today is Kubernetes, is you know, number of different open source project that you need to enable and then provide, use this, but when I first got exposed to Kubernetes, I said, "Hallelujah!" We had a runtime that works the same everywhere only to realize there are 12 different distributions. So that's where we come in, right? And other vendors come in to say, "Hey, no, we can make them all look the same. So you still use Kubernetes, but we give you a place to build, to set those operation policy once so that you don't create friction for the developers because that's the last thing you want to do." >> Yeah, actually, coming back to the same point, not all developers are same, right? So if you're ISV developer, you want to go to the lowest sort of level of the infrastructure and you want to shave off the milliseconds from to get that performance, right? If you're working at AWS, you are doing that. If you're working at scale at Facebook, you're doing that. At Twitter, you're doing that, but when you go to DMV and Kansas City, you're not doing that, right? So your developers are different in nature. They are given certain parameters to work with, certain sort of constraints on the budget side. They are educated at a different level as well. Like they don't go to that end of the degree of sort of automation, if you will. So you cannot have the broad stroking of developers. We are talking about a citizen developer these days. That's a extreme low, >> You mean Low-Code. >> Yeah, Low-Code, No-code, yeah, on the extreme side. On one side, that's citizen developers. On the left side is the professional developers, when you say developers, your mind goes to the professional developers, like the hardcore developers, they love the flexibility, you know, >> John: Well app, developers too, I mean. >> App developers, yeah. >> You're right a lot of, >> Sarbjeet: Infrastructure platform developers, app developers, yes. >> But there are a lot of customers, its a spectrum, you're saying. >> Yes, it's a spectrum >> There's a lot of customers don't want deal with that muck. >> Yeah. >> You know, like you said, AWS, Twitter, the sophisticated developers do, but there's a whole suite of developers out there >> Yeah >> That just want tools that are abstracted. >> Within a company, within a company. Like how I see the Supercloud is there shouldn't be anything which blocks the developers, like their view of the world, of the future. Like if you're blocked as a developer, like something comes in front of you, you are not developer anymore, believe me, (John laughing) so you'll go somewhere else >> John: First of all, I'm, >> You'll leave the company by the way. >> Dave: Yeah, you got to quit >> Yeah, you will quit, you will go where the action is, where there's no sort of blockage there. So like if you put in front of them like a huge amount of a distraction, they don't like it, so they don't, >> Well, the idea of a developer, >> Coming back to that >> Let's get into 'cause you mentioned platform. Get year in the term platform engineering now. >> Yeah. >> Platform developer. You know, I remember back in, and I think there's still a term used today, but when I graduated my computer science degree, we were called "Software engineers," right? Do people use that term "Software engineering", or is it "Software development", or they the same, are they different? >> Well, >> I think there's a, >> So, who's engineering what? Are they engineering or are they developing? Or both? Well, I think it the, you made a great point. There is a factor of, I had the, I was blessed to work with Adam Bosworth, that is the guy that created some of the abstraction layer, like Visual Basic and Microsoft Access and he had so, he made his whole career thinking about this layer, and he always talk about the professional developers, the developers that, you know, give him a user manual, maybe just go at the APIs, he'll build anything, right, from system engine, go down there, and then through obstruction, you get the more the procedural logic type of engineers, the people that used to be able to write procedural logic and visual basic and so on and so forth. I think those developers right now are a little cut out of the picture. There's some No-code, Low-Code environment that are maybe gain some traction, I caught up with Adam Bosworth two weeks ago in New York and I asked him "What's happening to this higher level developers?" and you know what he is told me, and he is always a little bit out there, so I'm going to use his thought process here. He says, "ChapGPT", I mean, they will get to a point where this high level procedural logic will be written by, >> John: Computers. >> Computers, and so we may not need as many at the high level, but we still need the engineers down there. The point is the operation needs to get in front of them >> But, wait, wait, you seen the ChatGPT meme, I dunno if it's a Dilbert thing where it's like, "Time to tic" >> Yeah, yeah, yeah, I did that >> "Time to develop the code >> Five minutes, time to decode", you know, to debug the codes like five hours. So you know, the whole equation >> Well, this ChatGPT is a hot wave, everyone's been talking about it because I think it illustrates something that's NextGen, feels NextGen, and it's just getting started so it's going to get better. I mean people are throwing stones at it, but I think it's amazing. It's the equivalent of me seeing the browser for the first time, you know, like, "Wow, this is really compelling." This is game-changing, it's not just keyword chat bots. It's like this is real, this is next level, and I think the Supercloud wave that people are getting behind points to that and I think the question of Ops and Dev comes up because I think if you limit the infrastructure opportunity for a developer, I think they're going to be handicapped. I mean that's a general, my opinion, the thesis is you give more aperture to developers, more choice, more capabilities, more good things could happen, policy, and that's why you're seeing the convergence of networking people, virtualization talent, operational talent, get into the conversation because I think it's an infrastructure engineering opportunity. I think this is a seminal moment in a new stack that's emerging from an infrastructure, software virtualization, low-code, no-code layer that will be completely programmable by things like the next Chat GPT or something different, but yet still the mechanics and the plumbing will still need engineering. >> Sarbjeet: Oh yeah. >> So there's still going to be more stuff coming on. >> Yeah, we have, with the cloud, we have made the infrastructure programmable and you give the programmability to the programmer, they will be very creative with that and so we are being very creative with our infrastructure now and on top of that, we are being very creative with the silicone now, right? So we talk about that. That's part of it, by the way. So you write the code to the particle's silicone now, and on the flip side, the silicone is built for certain use cases for AI Inference and all that. >> You saw this at CES? >> Yeah, I saw at CES, the scenario is this, the Bosch, I spoke to Bosch, I spoke to John Deere, I spoke to AWS guys, >> Yeah. >> They were showcasing their technology there and I was spoke to Azure guys as well. So the Bosch is a good example. So they are building, they are right now using AWS. I have that interview on camera, I will put it some sometime later on there online. So they're using AWS on the back end now, but Bosch is the number one, number one or number two depending on what day it is of the year, supplier of the componentry to the auto industry, and they are creating a platform for our auto industry, so is Qualcomm actually by the way, with the Snapdragon. So they told me that customers, their customers, BMW, Audi, all the manufacturers, they demand the diversity of the backend. Like they don't want all, they, all of them don't want to go to AWS. So they want the choice on the backend. So whatever they cook in the middle has to work, they have to sprinkle the data for the data sovereign side because they have Chinese car makers as well, and for, you know, for other reasons, competitive reasons and like use. >> People don't go to, aw, people don't go to AWS either for political reasons or like competitive reasons or specific use cases, but for the most part, generally, I haven't met anyone who hasn't gone first choice with either, but that's me personally. >> No, but they're building. >> Point is the developer wants choice at the back end is what I'm hearing, but then finish that thought. >> Their developers want the choice, they want the choice on the back end, number one, because the customers are asking for, in this case, the customers are asking for it, right? But the customers requirements actually drive, their economics drives that decision making, right? So in the middle they have to, they're forced to cook up some solution which is vendor neutral on the backend or multicloud in nature. So >> Yeah, >> Every >> I mean I think that's nirvana. I don't think, I personally don't see that happening right now. I mean, I don't see the parody with clouds. So I think that's a challenge. I mean, >> Yeah, true. >> I mean the fact of the matter is if the development teams get fragmented, we had this chat with Kit Colbert last time, I think he's going to come on and I think he's going to talk about his keynote in a few, in an hour or so, development teams is this, the cloud is heterogenous, which is great. It's complex, which is challenging. You need skilled engineering to manage these clouds. So if you're a CIO and you go all in on AWS, it's hard. Then to then go out and say, "I want to be completely multi-vendor neutral" that's a tall order on many levels and this is the multicloud challenge, right? So, the question is, what's the strategy for me, the CIO or CISO, what do I do? I mean, to me, I would go all in on one and start getting hedges and start playing and then look at some >> Crystal clear. Crystal clear to me. >> Go ahead. >> If you're a CIO today, you have to build a platform engineering team, no question. 'Cause if we agree that we cannot tell the great developers what to do, we have to create a platform engineering team that using pieces of the Supercloud can build, and let's make this very pragmatic and give examples. First you need to be able to lay down the run time, okay? So you need a way to deploy multiple different Kubernetes environment in depending on the cloud. Okay, now we got that. The second part >> That's like table stakes. >> That are table stake, right? But now what is the advantage of having a Supercloud service to do that is that now you can put a policy in one place and it gets distributed everywhere consistently. So for example, you want to say, "If anybody in this organization across all these different buildings, all these developers don't even know, build a PCI compliant microservice, They can only talk to PCI compliant microservice." Now, I sleep tight. The developers still do that. Of course they're going to get their hands slapped if they don't encrypt some messages and say, "Oh, that should have been encrypted." So number one. The second thing I want to be able to say, "This service that this developer built over there better satisfy this SLA." So if the SLA is not satisfied, boom, I automatically spin up multiple instances to certify the SLA. Developers unencumbered, they don't even know. So this for me is like, CIO build a platform engineering team using one of the many Supercloud services that allow you to do that and lay down. >> And part of that is that the vendor behavior is such, 'cause the incentive is that they don't necessarily always work together. (John chuckling) I'll give you an example, we're going to hear today from Western Union. They're AWS shop, but they want to go to Google, they want to use some of Google's AI tools 'cause they're good and maybe they're even arguably better, but they're also a Snowflake customer and what you'll hear from them is Amazon and Snowflake are working together so that SageMaker can be integrated with Snowflake but Google said, "No, you want to use our AI tools, you got to use BigQuery." >> Yeah. >> Okay. So they say, "Ah, forget it." So if you have a platform engineering team, you can maybe solve some of that vendor friction and get competitive advantage. >> I think that the future proximity concept that I talk about is like, when you're doing one thing, you want to do another thing. Where do you go to get that thing, right? So that is very important. Like your question, John, is that your point is that AWS is ahead of the pack, which is true, right? They have the >> breadth of >> Infrastructure by a lot >> infrastructure service, right? They breadth of services, right? So, how do you, When do you bring in other cloud providers, right? So I believe that you should standardize on one cloud provider, like that's your primary, and for others, bring them in on as needed basis, in the subsection or sub portfolio of your applications or your platforms, what ever you can. >> So yeah, the Google AI example >> Yeah, I mean, >> Or the Microsoft collaboration software example. I mean there's always or the M and A. >> Yeah, but- >> You're going to get to run Windows, you can run Windows on Amazon, so. >> By the way, Supercloud doesn't mean that you cannot do that. So the perfect example is say that you're using Azure because you have a SQL server intensive workload. >> Yep >> And you're using Google for ML, great. If you are using some differentiated feature of this cloud, you'll have to go somewhere and configure this widget, but what you can abstract with the Supercloud is the lifecycle manage of the service that runs on top, right? So how does the service get deployed, right? How do you monitor performance? How do you lifecycle it? How you secure it that you can abstract and that's the value and eventually value will win. So the customers will find what is the values, obstructing in making it uniform or going deeper? >> How about identity? Like take identity for instance, you know, that's an opportunity to abstract. Whether I use Microsoft Identity or Okta, and I can abstract that. >> Yeah, and then we have APIs and standards that we can use so eventually I think where there is enough pain, the right open source will emerge to solve that problem. >> Dave: Yeah, I can use abstract things like object store, right? That's pretty simple. >> But back to the engineering question though, is that developers, developers, developers, one thing about developers psychology is if something's not right, they say, "Go get fixing. I'm not touching it until you fix it." They're very sticky about, if something's not working, they're not going to do it again, right? So you got to get it right for developers. I mean, they'll maybe tolerate something new, but is the "juice worth the squeeze" as they say, right? So you can't go to direct say, "Hey, it's, what's a work in progress? We're going to get our infrastructure together and the world's going to be great for you, but just hang tight." They're going to be like, "Get your shit together then talk to me." So I think that to me is the question. It's an Ops question, but where's that value for the developer in Supercloud where the capabilities are there, there's less friction, it's simpler, it solves the complexity problem. I don't need these high skilled labor to manage Amazon. I got services exposed. >> That's what we talked about earlier. It's like the Walmart example. They basically, they took away from the developer the need to spin up infrastructure and worry about all the governance. I mean, it's not completely there yet. So the developer could focus on what he or she wanted to do. >> But there's a big, like in our industry, there's a big sort of flaw or the contention between developers and operators. Developers want to be on the cutting edge, right? And operators want to be on the stability, you know, like we want governance. >> Yeah, totally. >> Right, so they want to control, developers are like these little bratty kids, right? And they want Legos, like they want toys, right? Some of them want toys by way. They want Legos, they want to build there and they want make a mess out of it. So you got to make sure. My number one advice in this context is that do it up your application portfolio and, or your platform portfolio if you are an ISV, right? So if you are ISV you most probably, you're building a platform these days, do it up in a way that you can say this portion of our applications and our platform will adhere to what you are saying, standardization, you know, like Kubernetes, like slam dunk, you know, it works across clouds and in your data center hybrid, you know, whole nine yards, but there is some subset on the next door systems of innovation. Everybody has, it doesn't matter if you're DMV of Kansas or you are, you know, metaverse, right? Or Meta company, right, which is Facebook, they have it, they are building something new. For that, give them some freedom to choose different things like play with non-standard things. So that is the mantra for moving forward, for any enterprise. >> Do you think developers are happy with the infrastructure now or are they wanting people to get their act together? I mean, what's your reaction, or you think. >> Developers are happy as long as they can do their stuff, which is running code. They want to write code and innovate. So to me, when Ballmer said, "Developer, develop, Developer, what he meant was, all you other people get your act together so these developers can do their thing, and to me the Supercloud is the way for IT to get there and let developer be creative and go fast. Why not, without getting in trouble. >> Okay, let's wrap up this segment with a super clip. Okay, we're going to do a sound bite that we're going to make into a short video for each of you >> All right >> On you guys summarizing why Supercloud's important, why this next wave is relevant for the practitioners, for the industry and we'll turn this into an Instagram reel, YouTube short. So we'll call it a "Super clip. >> Alright, >> Sarbjeet, you want, you want some time to think about it? You want to go first? Vittorio, you want. >> I just didn't mind. (all laughing) >> No, okay, okay. >> I'll do it again. >> Go back. No, we got a fresh one. We'll going to already got that one in the can. >> I'll go. >> Sarbjeet, you go first. >> I'll go >> What's your super clip? >> In software systems, abstraction is your friend. I always say that. Abstraction is your friend, even if you're super professional developer, abstraction is your friend. We saw from the MFC library from C++ days till today. Abstract, use abstraction. Do not try to reinvent what's already being invented. Leverage cloud, leverage the platform side of the cloud. Not just infrastructure service, but platform as a service side of the cloud as well, and Supercloud is a meta platform built on top of these infrastructure services from three or four or five cloud providers. So use that and embrace the programmability, embrace the abstraction layer. That's the key actually, and developers who are true developers or professional developers as you said, they know that. >> Awesome. Great super clip. Vittorio, another shot at the plate here for super clip. Go. >> Multicloud is awesome. There's a reason why multicloud happened, is because gave our developers the ability to innovate fast and ever before. So if you are embarking on a digital transformation journey, which I call a survival journey, if you're not innovating and transforming, you're not going to be around in business three, five years from now. You have to adopt the Supercloud so the developer can be developer and keep building great, innovating digital experiences for your customers and IT can get in front of it and not get in trouble together. >> Building those super apps with Supercloud. That was a great super clip. Vittorio, thank you for sharing. >> Thanks guys. >> Sarbjeet, thanks for coming on talking about the developer impact Supercloud 2. On our next segment, coming up right now, we're going to hear from Walmart enterprise architect, how they are building and they are continuing to innovate, to build their own Supercloud. Really informative, instructive from a practitioner doing it in real time. Be right back with Walmart here in Palo Alto. Thanks for watching. (gentle music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> After a two year hiatus, AWS re:Inforce is back on as an in-person event in Boston next week. Like the All-Star break in baseball, re:Inforce gives us an opportunity to evaluate the cyber security market overall, the state of cloud security and cross cloud security and more specifically what AWS is up to in the sector. Welcome to this week's Wikibon cube insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis we'll share our view of what's changed since our last cyber update in May. We'll look at the macro environment, how it's impacting cyber security plays in the market, what the ETR data tells us and what to expect at next week's AWS re:Inforce. We start this week with a checkpoint from Breaking Analysis contributor and stock trader Chip Simonton. We asked for his assessment of the market generally in cyber stocks specifically. So we'll summarize right here. We've kind of moved on from a narrative of the sky is falling to one where the glass is half empty you know, and before today's big selloff it was looking more and more like glass half full. The SNAP miss has dragged down many of the big names that comprise the major indices. You know, earning season as always brings heightened interest and this time we're seeing many cross currents. It starts as usual with the banks and the money centers. With the exception of JP Morgan the numbers were pretty good according to Simonton. Investment banks were not so great with Morgan and Goldman missing estimates but in general, pretty positive outlooks. But the market also shrugged off IBM's growth. And of course, social media because of SNAP is getting hammered today. The question is no longer recession or not but rather how deep the recession will be. And today's PMI data was the weakest since the start of the pandemic. Bond yields continue to weaken and there's a growing consensus that Fed tightening may be over after September as commodity prices weaken. Now gas prices of course are still high but they've come down. Tesla, Nokia and AT&T all indicated that supply issues were getting better which is also going to help with inflation. So it's no shock that the NASDAQ has done pretty well as beaten down as tech stocks started to look oversold you know, despite today's sell off. But AT&T and Verizon, they blamed their misses in part on people not paying their bills on time. SNAP's huge miss even after guiding lower and then refusing to offer future guidance took that stock down nearly 40% today and other social media stocks are off on sympathy. Meta and Google were off, you know, over 7% at midday. I think at one point hit 14% down and Google, Meta and Twitter have all said they're freezing new hires. So we're starting to see according to Simonton for the first time in a long time, the lower income, younger generation really feeling the pinch of inflation. Along of course with struggling families that have to choose food and shelter over discretionary spend. Now back to the NASDAQ for a moment. As we've been reporting back in mid-June and NASDAQ was off nearly 33% year to date and has since rallied. It's now down about 25% year to date as of midday today. But as I say, it had been, you know much deeper back in early June. But it's broken that downward trend that we talked about where the highs are actually lower and the lows are lower. That's started to change for now anyway. We'll see if it holds. But chip stocks, software stocks, and of course the cyber names have broken those down trends and have been trading above their 50 day moving averages for the first time in around four months. And again, according to Simonton, we'll see if that holds. If it does, that's a positive sign. Now remember on June 24th, we recorded a Breaking Analysis and talked about Qualcomm trading at a 12 X multiple with an implied 15% growth rate. On that day the stock was 124 and it surpassed 155 earlier this month. That was a really good call by Simonton. So looking at some of the cyber players here SailPoint is of course the anomaly with the Thoma Bravo 7 billion acquisition of the company holding that stock up. But the Bug ETF of basket of cyber stocks has definitely improved. When we last reported on cyber in May, CrowdStrike was off 23% year to date. It's now off 4%. Palo Alto has held steadily. Okta is still underperforming its peers as it works through the fallout from the breach and the ingestion of its Auth0 acquisition. Meanwhile, Zscaler and SentinelOne, those high flyers are still well off year to date, with Ping Identity and CyberArk not getting hit as hard as their valuations hadn't run up as much. But virtually all these tech stocks generally in cyber issues specifically, they've been breaking their down trend. So it will now come down to earnings guidance in the coming months. But the SNAP reaction is quite stunning. I mean, the environment is slowing, we know that. Ad spending gets cut in that type of market, we know that too. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise to anyone but as Chip Simonton says, this shows that sellers are still in control here. So it's going to take a little while to work through that despite the positive signs that we're seeing. Okay. We also turned to our friend Eric Bradley from ETR who follows these markets quite closely. He frequently interviews CISOs on his program, on his round tables. So we asked to get his take and here's what ETR is saying. Again, as we've reported while CIOs and IT buyers have tempered spending expectations since December and early January when they called for an 8% plus spending growth, they're still expecting a six to seven percent uptick in spend this year. So that's pretty good. Security remains the number one priority and also is the highest ranked sector in the ETR data set when you measure in terms of pervasiveness in the study. Within security endpoint detection and extended detection and response along with identity and privileged account management are the sub-sectors with the most spending velocity. And when you exclude Microsoft which is just dominant across the board in so many sectors, CrowdStrike has taken over the number one spot in terms of spending momentum in ETR surveys with CyberArk and Tanium showing very strong as well. Okta has seen a big dropoff in net score from 54% last survey to 45% in July as customers maybe put a pause on new Okta adoptions. That clearly shows in the survey. We'll talk about that in a moment. Look Okta still elevated in terms of spending momentum, but it doesn't have the dominant leadership position it once held in spend velocity. Year on year, according to ETR, Tenable and Elastic are seeing the biggest jumps in spending momentum, with SailPoint, Tanium, Veronis, CrowdStrike and Zscaler seeing the biggest jump in new adoptions since the last survey. Now on the downside, SonicWall, Symantec, Trellic which is McAfee, Barracuda and TrendMicro are seeing the highest percentage of defections and replacements. Let's take a deeper look at what the ETR data tells us about the cybersecurity space. This is a popular view that we like to share with net score or spending momentum on the Y axis and overlap or pervasiveness in the data on the X axis. It's a measure of presence in the data set we used to call it market share. With the data, the dot positions, you see that little inserted table, that's how the dots are plotted. And it's important to note that this data is filtered for firms with at least 100 Ns in the survey. That's why some of the other ones that we mentioned might have dropped off. The red dotted line at 40% that indicates highly elevated spending momentum and there are several firms above that mark including of course, Microsoft, which is literally off the charts in both dimensions in the upper right. It's quite incredible actually. But for the rest of the pack, CrowdStrike has now taken back its number one net score position in the ETR survey. And CyberArk and Okta and Zscaler, CloudFlare and Auth0 now Okta through the acquisition, are all above the 40% mark. You can stare at the data at your leisure but I'll just point out, make three quick points. First Palo Alto continues to impress and as steady as she goes. Two, it's a very crowded market still and it's complicated space. And three there's lots of spending in different pockets. This market has too many tools and will continue to consolidate. Now I'd like to drill into a couple of firms net scores and pick out some of the pure plays that are leading the way. This series of charts shows the net score or spending velocity or granularity for Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler and CyberArk. Four of the top pure plays in the ETR survey that also have over a hundred responses. Now the colors represent the following. Bright red is defections. We're leaving the platform. The pink is we're spending less, meaning we're spending 6% or worse. The gray is flat spend plus or minus 5%. The forest green is spending more, i.e, 6% or more and the lime green is we're adding the platform new. That red dotted line at the 40% net score mark is the same elevated level that we like to talk about. All four are above that target. Now that blue line you see there is net score. The yellow line is pervasiveness in the data. The data shown in each bar goes back 10 surveys all the way back to January 2020. First I want to call out that all four again are seeing down trends in spending momentum with the whole market. That's that blue line. They're seeing that this quarter, again, the market is off overall. Everybody is kind of seeing that down trend for the most part. Very few exceptions. Okta is being hurt by fewer new additions which is why we highlighted in red, that red dotted area, that square that we put there in the upper right of that Okta bar. That lime green, new ads are off as well. And the gray for Okta, flat spending is noticeably up. So it feels like people are pausing a bit and taking a breather for Okta. And as we said earlier, perhaps with the breach earlier this year and the ingestion of Auth0 acquisition the company is seeing some friction in its business. Now, having said that, you can see Okta's yellow line or presence in the data set, continues to grow. So it's a good proxy from market presence. So Okta remains a leader in identity. So again, I'll let you stare at the data if you want at your leisure, but despite some concerns on declining momentum, notice this very little red at these companies when it comes to the ETR survey data. Now one more data slide which brings us to our four star cyber firms. We started a tradition a few years ago where we sorted the ETR data by net score. That's the left hand side of this graphic. And we sorted by shared end or presence in the data set. That's the right hand side. And again, we filtered by companies with at least 100 N and oh, by the way we've excluded Microsoft just to level the playing field. The red dotted line signifies the top 10. If a company cracks the top 10 in both spending momentum and presence, we give them four stars. So Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, Fortinet and Zscaler all made the cut this time. Now, as we pointed out in May if you combined Auth0 with Okta, they jumped to the number two on the right hand chart in terms of presence. And they would lead the pure plays there although it would bring down Okta's net score somewhat, as you can see, Auth0's net score is lower than Okta's. So when you combine them it would drag that down a little bit but it would give them bigger presence in the data set. Now, the other point we'll make is that Proofpoint and Splunk both dropped off the four star list this time as they both saw marked declines in net score or spending velocity. They both got four stars last quarter. Okay. We're going to close on what to expect at re:Inforce this coming week. Re:Inforce, if you don't know, is AWS's security event. They first held it in Boston back in 2019. It's dedicated to cloud security. The past two years has been virtual and they announced that reinvent that it would take place in Houston in June, which everybody said, that's crazy. Who wants to go to Houston in June and turns out nobody did so they postponed the event, thankfully. And so now they're back in Boston, starting on Monday. Not that it's going to be much cooler in Boston. Anyway, Steven Schmidt had been the face of AWS security at all these previous events as the Chief Information Security Officer. Now he's dropped the I from his title and is now the Chief Security Officer at Amazon. So he went with Jesse to the mothership. Presumably he dropped the I because he deals with physical security now too, like at the warehouses. Not that he didn't have to worry about physical security at the AWS data centers. I don't know. Anyway, he and CJ Moses who is now the new CISO at AWS will be keynoting along with some others including MongoDB's Chief Information Security Officer. So that should be interesting. Now, if you've been following AWS you'll know they like to break things down into, you know, a couple of security categories. Identity, detection and response, data protection slash privacy slash GRC which is governance, risk and compliance, and we would expect a lot more talk this year on container security. So you're going to hear also product updates and they like to talk about how they're adding value to services and try to help, they try to help customers understand how to apply services. Things like GuardDuty, which is their threat detection that has machine learning in it. They'll talk about Security Hub, which centralizes views and alerts and automates security checks. They have a service called Detective which does root cause analysis, and they have tools to mitigate denial of service attacks. And they'll talk about security in Nitro which isolates a lot of the hardware resources. This whole idea of, you know, confidential computing which is, you know, AWS will point out it's kind of become a buzzword. They take it really seriously. I think others do as well, like Arm. We've talked about that on previous Breaking Analysis. And again, you're going to hear something on container security because it's the hottest thing going right now and because AWS really still serves developers and really that's what they're trying to do. They're trying to enable developers to design security in but you're also going to hear a lot of best practice advice from AWS i.e, they'll share the AWS dogfooding playbooks with you for their own security practices. AWS like all good security practitioners, understand that the keys to a successful security strategy and implementation don't start with the technology, rather they're about the methods and practices that you apply to solve security threats and a top to bottom cultural approach to security awareness, designing security into systems, that's really where the developers come in, and training for continuous improvements. So you're going to get heavy doses of really strong best practices and guidance and you know, some good preaching. You're also going to hear and see a lot of partners. They'll be very visible at re:Inforce. AWS is all about ecosystem enablement and AWS is going to host close to a hundred security partners at the event. This is key because AWS doesn't do it all. Interestingly, they don't even show up in the ETR security taxonomy, right? They just sort of imply that it's built in there even though they have a lot of security tooling. So they have to apply the shared responsibility model not only with customers but partners as well. They need an ecosystem to fill gaps and provide deeper problem solving with more mature and deeper security tooling. And you're going to hear a lot of positivity around how great cloud security is and how it can be done well. But the truth is this stuff is still incredibly complicated and challenging for CISOs and practitioners who are understaffed when it comes to top talent. Now, finally, theCUBE will be at re:Inforce in force. John Furry and I will be hosting two days of broadcast so please do stop by if you're in Boston and say hello. We'll have a little chat, we'll share some data and we'll share our overall impressions of the event, the market, what we're seeing, what we're learning, what we're worried about in this dynamic space. Okay. That's it for today. Thanks for watching. Thanks to Alex Myerson, who is on production and manages the podcast. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they helped get the word out on social and in our newsletters and Rob Hoff is our Editor in Chief over at siliconangle.com. You did some great editing. Thank you all. Remember all these episodes they're available, this podcast. Wherever you listen, all you do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me by emailing avid.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante, or comment on my LinkedIn post and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching and we'll see you in Boston next week if you're there or next time on Breaking Analysis (soft music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Despite fears of inflation, supply chain issues skyrocketing energy and home prices and global instability caused by the Ukraine crisis CIOs and IT buyers continue to expect overall spending to increase more than 6% in 2022. Now, while this is lower than our 8% prediction that we made earlier this year in January, it remains in line with last year's roughly six to 7% growth and is holding firm with the expectations reported by tech executives on the ETR surveys last quarter. Hello and welcome to this week's wiki bond cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis, we'll update you on our latest look at tech spending with a preliminary take from ETR's latest macro drill down survey. We'll share some insights to which vendors have shown the biggest change in spending trajectory. And we'll tap our technical analysts to get a read on what they think it means for technology stocks going forward. The IT spending sentiment among IT buyers remains pretty solid. >> In the past two months, we've had conversations with dozens of CIOs, chief digital officers data executives, IT managers, and application developers, and across the board, they've indicated that for now at least their spending levels remain largely unchanged. The latest ETR drill down data which will share shortly, confirms these anecdotal checks. However, the interpretation of this data it's somewhat nuanced. Part of the reason for the spending levels being you know reasonably strong and holding up is inflation. Stuff costs more so spending levels are higher forcing IT managers to prioritize. Now security remains the number one priority and is less susceptible to cuts, cloud migration, productivity initiatives and other data projects remain top priorities. >> So where are CIO's robbing from Peter to pay Paul to focus on these priorities? Well, we've seen a slight uptick in certain speculative. IT projects being put on hold or frozen for a period of time. And according to ETR survey data we've seen some hiring freezes reported and this is especially notable in the healthcare sector. ETR also surveyed its buyer base to find out where they were adjusting their budgets and the strategies and tactics they were using to do so. Consolidating IT vendors was by far the most cited tactic. Now this makes sense as companies in an effort to negotiate better deals will often forego investments in newer so-called best of breed products and services, and negotiate bundles from larger suppliers. You know, even though they might not be as functional, the buyers >> can get a better deal if they bundle together from one of their larger suppliers. Think Microsoft or a Dell or other, you know, large companies. ETR survey respondents also cited cutting the cloud bill where discretionary spending was in play was another strategy or tactic that they were using. We certainly saw this with some of the largest snowflake customers this past quarter. Where even though they were still growing consumption rapidly certain snowflake customers dialed down their consumption and pushed spending off to future quarters. Now remember in the case of snowflake, anyway, customers negotiate consumption rates and their pricing based on a total commitment over a period of time. So while they may consume less in one quarter, over the lifetime of the contract, snowflake, as do many other cloud companies, have good visibility on the lifetime value of a deal. Now this next chart shows the latest ETR spending expectations among more than 900 respondents. The bars represent spending growth expectations from the periods of December, 2021 that's the gray bars, March of 2022 survey in the blue, and the most recent June data, That's the yellow bar. So you can see spending expectations for the quarter is down slightly in the mid 5% range. But overall for the year expectations remain in the mid 6% range. Now it's down from 8%, 8.3% in December where it looked like 2022 was going to really be a breakout year and have more momentum than even last year. Now, remember this was before Russia invaded Ukraine which occurred in mid-February of this year. So expectations were a little higher. So look, generally speaking CIOs have told us that their CFOs and CEOs have lowered their earnings outlooks and communicated that to Wall Street. They've told us that unless and until these revised forecasts appear at risk, they continue to expect their budget levels to remain pretty constant. Now there's still plenty of momentum and spending velocity on specific vendor platforms. Let's take a look at that. >> This chart shows the companies with the greatest spending momentum as measured by ETRs proprietary net score methodology. Net score essentially measures the net percent of customers spending more on a particular platform. That measurement is shown on the Y axis. The red line there that's inserted that red dotted line at 40%, we consider to be a highly elevated mark. And the green dots are companies in the ETR survey that are near or above that line. The X axis measures the presence in the data set, how much, you know sort of pervasiveness, if you will, is in the data. It's kind of a proxy for market presence. Now, of course we all know Kubernetes is not a company, but it remains an area where organizations are spending lots of resources and time particularly to modernize and mobilize applications. Snowflake remains the company which leads all firms in spending velocity, but as you'll see momentarily, despite its highest position relative to everybody else in the survey, it's still down from its previous levels in the high seventies and low 80% range. AWS is incredibly impressive because it has an elevated level but also a big presence in the data set in the survey. Same with Microsoft, same with ServiceNow which also stands out. And you can see the other smaller vendors like HashiCorp which is increasingly being seen as a strategic cross cloud enabler. They're showing, spending momentum. The RPA vendors you see in there automation anywhere and UI path are in the mix with numerous security companies, CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Netskope, Cloudflare, Tenable Okta, Zscaler Palo Alto networks, Sale Point Fortunate. A big number of cybersecurity firms hovering at or above that 40% mark you can see pure storage remains elevated as do PagerDuty and Coupa. So plenty of good news here, despite the recent tech crash. So that was the good, here's the not so good. So >> there is no 40% line on this chart because all these companies are well below that line. Now this doesn't mean these companies are bad companies. They just don't have the spending velocity of the ones we showed earlier. A good example here is Oracle. Look how they stand out on the X axis with a huge market presence. And Oracle remains an incredibly successful company selling to high end customers and really owning that mission critical data and application space. And remember ETR measures spending activity, but not actual spending dollars. So Oracle is skewed as a result because Oracle customers spend big bucks. But the fact is that Oracle has a large legacy install base that pulls down their growth rates. And that does show up in the ETR survey data. Broadcom is another example. They're one of the most successful companies in the industry, and they're not going after growth at all costs at all. They're going after EBITDA and of course ETR doesn't measure EBIT. So just keep that in mind, as you look at this data. Now another way to look at the data and the survey, is exploring the net score movement over the last period amongst companies. So how are they moving? What's happening to the net score over time. And this chart shows the year over year >> net score change for vendors that participate in at least three sectors within the ETR taxonomy. Remember ETR taxonomy has 12, 15 different segments. So the names above or below the gray dotted line are those companies where the net score has increased or decreased meaningfully. So to the earlier chart, it's all relative, right? Look at Oracle. While having lower net scores has also shown a more meaningful improvement in net score than some of the others, as have SAP and Teradata. Now what's impressive to me here is how AWS, Microsoft, and Google are actually holding that dotted line that gray line pretty well despite their size and the other ironically interesting two data points here are Broadcom and Nutanix. Now Broadcom, of course, as we've reported and dug into, is buying VMware and, and of, of course most customers are concerned about getting hit with higher prices. Once Broadcom takes over. Well Nutanix despite its change in net scores, in a good position potentially to capture some of that VMware business. Just yesterday, I talked to a customer who told me he migrated his entire portfolio off VMware using Nutanix AHV, the Acropolis hypervisor. And that was in an effort to avoid the VTEX specifically. Now this was a smaller customer granted and it's not representative of what I feel is Broadcom's ICP the ideal customer profile, but look, Nutanix should benefit from the Broadcom acquisition. If it can position itself to pick up the business that Broadcom really doesn't want. That kind of bottom of the pyramid. One person's trash is another's treasure as they say, okay. And here's that same chart for companies >> that participate in less than three segments. So, two or one of the segments in the ETR taxonomy. Only three names are seeing positive movement year over year in net score. SUSE under the leadership of amazing CEO, Melissa Di Donato. She's making moves. The company went public last year and acquired rancher labs in 2020. Look, we know that red hat is the big dog in Kubernetes but since the IBM acquisition people have looked to SUSE as a possible alternative and it's showing up in the numbers. It's a nice business. It's going to do more than 600 million this year in revenue, SUSE that is. It's got solid double digit growth in kind of the low teens. It's profitability is under pressure but they're definitely a player that is found a niche and is worth watching. The SolarWinds, What can I say there? I mean, maybe it's a dead cat bounce coming off the major breach that we saw a couple years ago. Some of its customers maybe just can't move off the platform. Constant contact we really don't follow and don't really, you know, focus on them. So, not much to say there. Now look at all the high priced earning stocks or infinite PE stocks that have no E and divide by zero or a negative number and boom, you have infinite PE and look at how their net scores have dropped. We've reported extensively on snowflake. They're still number one as we showed you earlier, net score, but big moves off their highs. Okta, Datadog, Zscaler, SentinelOne Dynatrace, big downward moves, and you can see the rest. So this chart really speaks to the change in expectations from the COVID bubble. Despite the fact that many of these companies CFOs would tell you that the pandemic wasn't necessarily a tailwind for them, but it certainly seemed to be the case when you look back in some of the ETR data. But a big question in the community is what's going to happen to these tech stocks, these tech companies in the market? We reached out to both Eric Bradley of ETR who used to be a technical analyst on Wall Street, and the long time trader and breaking analysis contributor, Chip Symington to get a read on what they thought. First, you know the market >> first point of the market has been off 11 out of the past 12 weeks. And bare market rallies like what we're seeing today and yesterday, they happen from time to time and it was kind of expected. Chair Powell's testimony was broadly viewed as a positive by the street because higher interest rates appear to be pushing commodity prices down. And a weaker consumer sentiment may point to a less onerous inflation outlook. That's good for the market. Chip Symington pointed out to breaking analysis a while ago that the NASDAQ has been on a trend line for the past six months where its highs are lower and the lows are lower and that's a bad sign. And we're bumping up against that trend line here. Meaning if it breaks through that trend it could be a buying signal. As he feels that tech stocks are oversold. He pointed to a recent bounce in semiconductors and cited the Qualcomm example. Here's a company trading at 12 times forward earnings with a sustained 14% growth rate over the next couple of years. And their cash flow is able to support their 2.4, 2% annual dividend. So overall Symington feels this rally was absolutely expected. He's cautious because we're still in a bear market but he's beginning to, to turn bullish. And Eric Bradley added that He feels the market is building a base here and he doesn't expect a 1970s or early 1980s year long sideways move because of all the money that's still in the system. You know, but it could bounce around for several months And remember with higher interest rates there are going to be more options other than equities which for many years has not been the case. Obviously inflation and recession. They are like two looming towers that we're all watching closely and will ultimately determine if, when, and how this market turns around. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to my colleagues, Stephanie Chan, who helps research breaking analysis topics sometimes, and Alex Myerson who is on production in the podcast. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight they help get the word out and do all of our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our Editor in Chief over at siliconangle.com and does some wonderful editing for breaking analysis. Thank you. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search breaking analysis podcasts. I publish each week on wikibon.com and Siliconangle.com. And of course you can reach me by email at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me at DVellante comment on my LinkedIn post and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the CUBE insights powered by ETR. Stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (soft music)

(upbeat music) >> Welcome back, everyone, to theCUBE's coverage here live on the floor at AWS re:MARS 2022. I'm John Furrier, host for theCUBE. Great event, machine learning, automation, robotics, space, that's MARS. It's part of the re-series of events, re:Invent's the big event at the end of the year, re:Inforce, security, re:MARS, really intersection of the future of space, industrial, automation, which is very heavily DevOps machine learning, of course, machine learning, which is AI. We have Luis Ceze here, who's the CEO co-founder of OctoML. Welcome to theCUBE. >> Thank you very much for having me in the show, John. >> So we've been following you guys. You guys are a growing startup funded by Madrona Venture Capital, one of your backers. You guys are here at the show. This is a, I would say small show relative what it's going to be, but a lot of robotics, a lot of space, a lot of industrial kind of edge, but machine learning is the centerpiece of this trend. You guys are in the middle of it. Tell us your story. >> Absolutely, yeah. So our mission is to make machine learning sustainable and accessible to everyone. So I say sustainable because it means we're going to make it faster and more efficient. You know, use less human effort, and accessible to everyone, accessible to as many developers as possible, and also accessible in any device. So, we started from an open source project that began at University of Washington, where I'm a professor there. And several of the co-founders were PhD students there. We started with this open source project called Apache TVM that had actually contributions and collaborations from Amazon and a bunch of other big tech companies. And that allows you to get a machine learning model and run on any hardware, like run on CPUs, GPUs, various GPUs, accelerators, and so on. It was the kernel of our company and the project's been around for about six years or so. Company is about three years old. And we grew from Apache TVM into a whole platform that essentially supports any model on any hardware cloud and edge. >> So is the thesis that, when it first started, that you want to be agnostic on platform? >> Agnostic on hardware, that's right. >> Hardware, hardware. >> Yeah. >> What was it like back then? What kind of hardware were you talking about back then? Cause a lot's changed, certainly on the silicon side. >> Luis: Absolutely, yeah. >> So take me through the journey, 'cause I could see the progression. I'm connecting the dots here. >> So once upon a time, yeah, no... (both chuckling) >> I walked in the snow with my bare feet. >> You have to be careful because if you wake up the professor in me, then you're going to be here for two hours, you know. >> Fast forward. >> The average version here is that, clearly machine learning has shown to actually solve real interesting, high value problems. And where machine learning runs in the end, it becomes code that runs on different hardware, right? And when we started Apache TVM, which stands for tensor virtual machine, at that time it was just beginning to start using GPUs for machine learning, we already saw that, with a bunch of machine learning models popping up and CPUs and GPU's starting to be used for machine learning, it was clear that it come opportunity to run on everywhere. >> And GPU's were coming fast. >> GPUs were coming and huge diversity of CPUs, of GPU's and accelerators now, and the ecosystem and the system software that maps models to hardware is still very fragmented today. So hardware vendors have their own specific stacks. So Nvidia has its own software stack, and so does Intel, AMD. And honestly, I mean, I hope I'm not being, you know, too controversial here to say that it kind of of looks like the mainframe era. We had tight coupling between hardware and software. You know, if you bought IBM hardware, you had to buy IBM OS and IBM database, IBM applications, it all tightly coupled. And if you want to use IBM software, you had to buy IBM hardware. So that's kind of like what machine learning systems look like today. If you buy a certain big name GPU, you've got to use their software. Even if you use their software, which is pretty good, you have to buy their GPUs, right? So, but you know, we wanted to help peel away the model and the software infrastructure from the hardware to give people choice, ability to run the models where it best suit them. Right? So that includes picking the best instance in the cloud, that's going to give you the right, you know, cost properties, performance properties, or might want to run it on the edge. You might run it on an accelerator. >> What year was that roughly, when you were going this? >> We started that project in 2015, 2016 >> Yeah. So that was pre-conventional wisdom. I think TensorFlow wasn't even around yet. >> Luis: No, it wasn't. >> It was, I'm thinking like 2017 or so. >> Luis: Right. So that was the beginning of, okay, this is opportunity. AWS, I don't think they had released some of the nitro stuff that the Hamilton was working on. So, they were already kind of going that way. It's kind of like converging. >> Luis: Yeah. >> The space was happening, exploding. >> Right. And the way that was dealt with, and to this day, you know, to a large extent as well is by backing machine learning models with a bunch of hardware specific libraries. And we were some of the first ones to say, like, know what, let's take a compilation approach, take a model and compile it to very efficient code for that specific hardware. And what underpins all of that is using machine learning for machine learning code optimization. Right? But it was way back when. We can talk about where we are today. >> No, let's fast forward. >> That's the beginning of the open source project. >> But that was a fundamental belief, worldview there. I mean, you have a world real view that was logical when you compare to the mainframe, but not obvious to the machine learning community. Okay, good call, check. Now let's fast forward, okay. Evolution, we'll go through the speed of the years. More chips are coming, you got GPUs, and seeing what's going on in AWS. Wow! Now it's booming. Now I got unlimited processors, I got silicon on chips, I got, everywhere >> Yeah. And what's interesting is that the ecosystem got even more complex, in fact. Because now you have, there's a cross product between machine learning models, frameworks like TensorFlow, PyTorch, Keras, and like that and so on, and then hardware targets. So how do you navigate that? What we want here, our vision is to say, folks should focus, people should focus on making the machine learning models do what they want to do that solves a value, like solves a problem of high value to them. Right? So another deployment should be completely automatic. Today, it's very, very manual to a large extent. So once you're serious about deploying machine learning model, you got a good understanding where you're going to deploy it, how you're going to deploy it, and then, you know, pick out the right libraries and compilers, and we automated the whole thing in our platform. This is why you see the tagline, the booth is right there, like bringing DevOps agility for machine learning, because our mission is to make that fully transparent. >> Well, I think that, first of all, I use that line here, cause I'm looking at it here on live on camera. People can't see, but it's like, I use it on a couple couple of my interviews because the word agility is very interesting because that's kind of the test on any kind of approach these days. Agility could be, and I talked to the robotics guys, just having their product be more agile. I talked to Pepsi here just before you came on, they had this large scale data environment because they built an architecture, but that fostered agility. So again, this is an architectural concept, it's a systems' view of agility being the output, and removing dependencies, which I think what you guys were trying to do. >> Only part of what we do. Right? So agility means a bunch of things. First, you know-- >> Yeah explain. >> Today it takes a couple months to get a model from, when the model's ready, to production, why not turn that in two hours. Agile, literally, physically agile, in terms of walk off time. Right? And then the other thing is give you flexibility to choose where your model should run. So, in our deployment, between the demo and the platform expansion that we announced yesterday, you know, we give the ability of getting your model and, you know, get it compiled, get it optimized for any instance in the cloud and automatically move it around. Today, that's not the case. You have to pick one instance and that's what you do. And then you might auto scale with that one instance. So we give the agility of actually running and scaling the model the way you want, and the way it gives you the right SLAs. >> Yeah, I think Swami was mentioning that, not specifically that use case for you, but that use case generally, that scale being moving things around, making them faster, not having to do that integration work. >> Scale, and run the models where they need to run. Like some day you want to have a large scale deployment in the cloud. You're going to have models in the edge for various reasons because speed of light is limited. We cannot make lights faster. So, you know, got to have some, that's a physics there you cannot change. There's privacy reasons. You want to keep data locally, not send it around to run the model locally. So anyways, and giving the flexibility. >> Let me jump in real quick. I want to ask this specific question because you made me think of something. So we're just having a data mesh conversation. And one of the comments that's come out of a few of these data as code conversations is data's the product now. So if you can move data to the edge, which everyone's talking about, you know, why move data if you don't have to, but I can move a machine learning algorithm to the edge. Cause it's costly to move data. I can move computer, everyone knows that. But now I can move machine learning to anywhere else and not worry about integrating on the fly. So the model is the code. >> It is the product. >> Yeah. And since you said, the model is the code, okay, now we're talking even more here. So machine learning models today are not treated as code, by the way. So do not have any of the typical properties of code that you can, whenever you write a piece of code, you run a code, you don't know, you don't even think what is a CPU, we don't think where it runs, what kind of CPU it runs, what kind of instance it runs. But with machine learning model, you do. So what we are doing and created this fully transparent automated way of allowing you to treat your machine learning models if you were a regular function that you call and then a function could run anywhere. >> Yeah. >> Right. >> That's why-- >> That's better. >> Bringing DevOps agility-- >> That's better. >> Yeah. And you can use existing-- >> That's better, because I can run it on the Artemis too, in space. >> You could, yeah. >> If they have the hardware. (both laugh) >> And that allows you to run your existing, continue to use your existing DevOps infrastructure and your existing people. >> So I have to ask you, cause since you're a professor, this is like a masterclass on theCube. Thank you for coming on. Professor. (Luis laughing) I'm a hardware guy. I'm building hardware for Boston Dynamics, Spot, the dog, that's the diversity in hardware, it's tends to be purpose driven. I got a spaceship, I'm going to have hardware on there. >> Luis: Right. >> It's generally viewed in the community here, that everyone I talk to and other communities, open source is going to drive all software. That's a check. But the scale and integration is super important. And they're also recognizing that hardware is really about the software. And they even said on stage, here. Hardware is not about the hardware, it's about the software. So if you believe that to be true, then your model checks all the boxes. Are people getting this? >> I think they're starting to. Here is why, right. A lot of companies that were hardware first, that thought about software too late, aren't making it. Right? There's a large number of hardware companies, AI chip companies that aren't making it. Probably some of them that won't make it, unfortunately just because they started thinking about software too late. I'm so glad to see a lot of the early, I hope I'm not just doing our own horn here, but Apache TVM, the infrastructure that we built to map models to different hardware, it's very flexible. So we see a lot of emerging chip companies like SiMa.ai's been doing fantastic work, and they use Apache TVM to map algorithms to their hardware. And there's a bunch of others that are also using Apache TVM. That's because you have, you know, an opening infrastructure that keeps it up to date with all the machine learning frameworks and models and allows you to extend to the chips that you want. So these companies pay attention that early, gives them a much higher fighting chance, I'd say. >> Well, first of all, not only are you backable by the VCs cause you have pedigree, you're a professor, you're smart, and you get good recruiting-- >> Luis: I don't know about the smart part. >> And you get good recruiting for PhDs out of University of Washington, which is not too shabby computer science department. But they want to make money. The VCs want to make money. >> Right. >> So you have to make money. So what's the pitch? What's the business model? >> Yeah. Absolutely. >> Share us what you're thinking there. >> Yeah. The value of using our solution is shorter time to value for your model from months to hours. Second, you shrink operator, op-packs, because you don't need a specialized expensive team. Talk about expensive, expensive engineers who can understand machine learning hardware and software engineering to deploy models. You don't need those teams if you use this automated solution, right? Then you reduce that. And also, in the process of actually getting a model and getting specialized to the hardware, making hardware aware, we're talking about a very significant performance improvement that leads to lower cost of deployment in the cloud. We're talking about very significant reduction in costs in cloud deployment. And also enabling new applications on the edge that weren't possible before. It creates, you know, latent value opportunities. Right? So, that's the high level value pitch. But how do we make money? Well, we charge for access to the platform. Right? >> Usage. Consumption. >> Yeah, and value based. Yeah, so it's consumption and value based. So depends on the scale of the deployment. If you're going to deploy machine learning model at a larger scale, chances are that it produces a lot of value. So then we'll capture some of that value in our pricing scale. >> So, you have direct sales force then to work those deals. >> Exactly. >> Got it. How many customers do you have? Just curious. >> So we started, the SaaS platform just launched now. So we started onboarding customers. We've been building this for a while. We have a bunch of, you know, partners that we can talk about openly, like, you know, revenue generating partners, that's fair to say. We work closely with Qualcomm to enable Snapdragon on TVM and hence our platform. We're close with AMD as well, enabling AMD hardware on the platform. We've been working closely with two hyperscaler cloud providers that-- >> I wonder who they are. >> I don't know who they are, right. >> Both start with the letter A. >> And they're both here, right. What is that? >> They both start with the letter A. >> Oh, that's right. >> I won't give it away. (laughing) >> Don't give it away. >> One has three, one has four. (both laugh) >> I'm guessing, by the way. >> Then we have customers in the, actually, early customers have been using the platform from the beginning in the consumer electronics space, in Japan, you know, self driving car technology, as well. As well as some AI first companies that actually, whose core value, the core business come from AI models. >> So, serious, serious customers. They got deep tech chops. They're integrating, they see this as a strategic part of their architecture. >> That's what I call AI native, exactly. But now there's, we have several enterprise customers in line now, we've been talking to. Of course, because now we launched the platform, now we started onboarding and exploring how we're going to serve it to these customers. But it's pretty clear that our technology can solve a lot of other pain points right now. And we're going to work with them as early customers to go and refine them. >> So, do you sell to the little guys, like us? Will we be customers if we wanted to be? >> You could, absolutely, yeah. >> What we have to do, have machine learning folks on staff? >> So, here's what you're going to have to do. Since you can see the booth, others can't. No, but they can certainly, you can try our demo. >> OctoML. >> And you should look at the transparent AI app that's compiled and optimized with our flow, and deployed and built with our flow. That allows you to get your image and do style transfer. You know, you can get you and a pineapple and see how you look like with a pineapple texture. >> We got a lot of transcript and video data. >> Right. Yeah. Right, exactly. So, you can use that. Then there's a very clear-- >> But I could use it. You're not blocking me from using it. Everyone's, it's pretty much democratized. >> You can try the demo, and then you can request access to the platform. >> But you get a lot of more serious deeper customers. But you can serve anybody, what you're saying. >> Luis: We can serve anybody, yeah. >> All right, so what's the vision going forward? Let me ask this. When did people start getting the epiphany of removing the machine learning from the hardware? Was it recently, a couple years ago? >> Well, on the research side, we helped start that trend a while ago. I don't need to repeat that. But I think the vision that's important here, I want the audience here to take away is that, there's a lot of progress being made in creating machine learning models. So, there's fantastic tools to deal with training data, and creating the models, and so on. And now there's a bunch of models that can solve real problems there. The question is, how do you very easily integrate that into your intelligent applications? Madrona Venture Group has been very vocal and investing heavily in intelligent applications both and user applications as well as enablers. So we say an enable of that because it's so easy to use our flow to get a model integrated into your application. Now, any regular software developer can integrate that. And that's just the beginning, right? Because, you know, now we have CI/CD integration to keep your models up to date, to continue to integrate, and then there's more downstream support for other features that you normally have in regular software development. >> I've been thinking about this for a long, long, time. And I think this whole code, no one thinks about code. Like, I write code, I'm deploying it. I think this idea of machine learning as code independent of other dependencies is really amazing. It's so obvious now that you say it. What's the choices now? Let's just say that, I buy it, I love it, I'm using it. Now what do I got to do if I want to deploy it? Do I have to pick processors? Are there verified platforms that you support? Is there a short list? Is there every piece of hardware? >> We actually can help you. I hope we're not saying we can do everything in the world here, but we can help you with that. So, here's how. When you have them all in the platform you can actually see how this model runs on any instance of any cloud, by the way. So we support all the three major cloud providers. And then you can make decisions. For example, if you care about latency, your model has to run on, at most 50 milliseconds, because you're going to have interactivity. And then, after that, you don't care if it's faster. All you care is that, is it going to run cheap enough. So we can help you navigate. And also going to make it automatic. >> It's like tire kicking in the dealer showroom. >> Right. >> You can test everything out, you can see the simulation. Are they simulations, or are they real tests? >> Oh, no, we run all in real hardware. So, we have, as I said, we support any instances of any of the major clouds. We actually run on the cloud. But we also support a select number of edge devices today, like ARMs and Nvidia Jetsons. And we have the OctoML cloud, which is a bunch of racks with a bunch Raspberry Pis and Nvidia Jetsons, and very soon, a bunch of mobile phones there too that can actually run the real hardware, and validate it, and test it out, so you can see that your model runs performant and economically enough in the cloud. And it can run on the edge devices-- >> You're a machine learning as a service. Would that be an accurate? >> That's part of it, because we're not doing the machine learning model itself. You come with a model and we make it deployable and make it ready to deploy. So, here's why it's important. Let me try. There's a large number of really interesting companies that do API models, as in API as a service. You have an NLP model, you have computer vision models, where you call an API and then point in the cloud. You send an image and you got a description, for example. But it is using a third party. Now, if you want to have your model on your infrastructure but having the same convenience as an API you can use our service. So, today, chances are that, if you have a model that you know that you want to do, there might not be an API for it, we actually automatically create the API for you. >> Okay, so that's why I get the DevOps agility for machine learning is a better description. Cause it's not, you're not providing the service. You're providing the service of deploying it like DevOps infrastructure as code. You're now ML as code. >> It's your model, your API, your infrastructure, but all of the convenience of having it ready to go, fully automatic, hands off. >> Cause I think what's interesting about this is that it brings the craftsmanship back to machine learning. Cause it's a craft. I mean, let's face it. >> Yeah. I want human brains, which are very precious resources, to focus on building those models, that is going to solve business problems. I don't want these very smart human brains figuring out how to scrub this into actually getting run the right way. This should be automatic. That's why we use machine learning, for machine learning to solve that. >> Here's an idea for you. We should write a book called, The Lean Machine Learning. Cause the lean startup was all about DevOps. >> Luis: We call machine leaning. No, that's not it going to work. (laughs) >> Remember when iteration was the big mantra. Oh, yeah, iterate. You know, that was from DevOps. >> Yeah, that's right. >> This code allowed for standing up stuff fast, double down, we all know the history, what it turned out. That was a good value for developers. >> I could really agree. If you don't mind me building on that point. You know, something we see as OctoML, but we also see at Madrona as well. Seeing that there's a trend towards best in breed for each one of the stages of getting a model deployed. From the data aspect of creating the data, and then to the model creation aspect, to the model deployment, and even model monitoring. Right? We develop integrations with all the major pieces of the ecosystem, such that you can integrate, say with model monitoring to go and monitor how a model is doing. Just like you monitor how code is doing in deployment in the cloud. >> It's evolution. I think it's a great step. And again, I love the analogy to the mainstream. I lived during those days. I remember the monolithic propriety, and then, you know, OSI model kind of blew it. But that OSI stack never went full stack, and it only stopped at TCP/IP. So, I think the same thing's going on here. You see some scalability around it to try to uncouple it, free it. >> Absolutely. And sustainability and accessibility to make it run faster and make it run on any deice that you want by any developer. So, that's the tagline. >> Luis Ceze, thanks for coming on. Professor. >> Thank you. >> I didn't know you were a professor. That's great to have you on. It was a masterclass in DevOps agility for machine learning. Thanks for coming on. Appreciate it. >> Thank you very much. Thank you. >> Congratulations, again. All right. OctoML here on theCube. Really important. Uncoupling the machine learning from the hardware specifically. That's only going to make space faster and safer, and more reliable. And that's where the whole theme of re:MARS is. Let's see how they fit in. I'm John for theCube. Thanks for watching. More coverage after this short break. >> Luis: Thank you. (gentle music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante semiconductors are the heart of technology innovation for decades technology improvements have marched the cadence of silicon advancements in performance cost power and packaging in the past 10 years the dynamics of the semiconductor industry have changed dramatically soaring factory costs device volume explosions fabulous chip companies greater programmability compressed time to tape out a lot more software content the looming presence of china these and other factors have changed the power structure of the semiconductor business chips today power every aspect of our lives and have led to a global semiconductor shortage that's been well covered but we've never seen anything like it before we believe silicon's success in the next 20 years will be determined by volume manufacturing capabilities design innovation public policy geopolitical dynamics visionary leadership and innovative business models that can survive the intense competition in one of the most challenging businesses in the world hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis it's our pleasure to welcome daniel newman in one of the leading analysts in the technology business and founder of futurum research daniel welcome to the program thanks so much dave great to see you thanks for having me big topic yeah i'll say i'm really looking forward to this and so here's some of the topics that we want to cover today if we have time changes in the semiconductor industry i've said they've been dramatic the shift to nofap companies we're going to talk about volume manufacturing those shifts that have occurred largely due to the arm model we want to cover intel and dig into that and what it has to do to to survive and thrive these changes and then we want to take a look at how alternative processors are impacting the world people talk about is moore's law dead is it alive and well daniel you have strong perspectives on all of this including nvidia love to get your thoughts on on that plus talk about the looming china threat as i mentioned in in the intro but daniel before we get into it do these topics they sound okay how do you see the state of the semiconductor industry today where have we come from where are we and where are we going at the macro level there are a lot of different narratives that are streaming alongside and they're not running in parallel so much as they're running and converging towards one another but it gradually different uh you know degrees so the last two years has welcomed a semiconductor conversation that we really hadn't had and that was supply chain driven the covid19 pandemic brought pretty much unprecedented desire demand thirst or products that are powered by semiconductors and it wasn't until we started running out of laptops of vehicles of servers that the whole world kind of put the semiconductor in focus again like it was just one of those things dave that we as a society it's sort of taken for granted like if you need a laptop you go buy a laptop if you needed a vehicle there'd always be one on the lot um but as we've seen kind of this exponentialism that's taken place throughout the pandemic what we ended up realizing is that semiconductors are eating the world and in fact the next industrial the entire industrial itself the complex is powered by semiconductor technology so everything we we do and we want to do right you went from a vehicle that might have had 50 or 100 worth of semiconductors on a few different parts to one that might have 700 800 different chips in it thousands of dollars worth of semi of semiconductors so you know across the board though yes you're dealing with the dynamics of the shortage you're dealing with the dynamics of innovation you're dealing with moore's law and sort of coming to the end which is leading to new process we're dealing with the foundry versus fab versus invention and product development uh situation so there's so many different concurrent semiconductor narratives that are going on dave and we can talk about any of them and all of them and i'm sure as we do we'll overlap all these different themes you know maybe you can solve this mystery for me there's this this this chip shortage and you can't invent vehicle inventory is so tight but yet when you listen to uh the the ads if the the auto manufacturers are pounding the advertising maybe they're afraid of tesla they don't want to lose their brand awareness but anyway so listen it's by the way a background i want to get a little bit academic here but but bear with me i want to introduce actually reintroduce the concept of wright's law to our audience we know we all know about moore's law but the earlier instantiation actually comes from theodore wright t.p wright he was this engineer in the airplane industry and the math is a little bit abstract to apply but roughly translated says as the cumulative number of units produced doubles your cost per unit declines by a fixed percentage now in airplanes that was around 15 percent in semiconductors we think that numbers more like 20 25 when you add the performance improvements you get from silicon advancements it translates into something like 33 percent cost cost declines when you can double your cumulative volume so that's very important because it confers strategic advantage to the company with the largest volume so it's a learning curve dynamic and it's like andy jassy says daniel there's no compression algorithm for experience and it definitely applies here so if you apply wright's law to what's happening in the industry today we think we can get a better understanding of for instance why tsmc is dominating and why intel is struggling any quick thoughts on that well you have to take every formula like that in any sort of standard mathematics and kind of throw it out the window when you're dealing with the economic situation we are right now i'm not i'm not actually throwing it out the window but what i'm saying is that when supply and demand get out of whack some of those laws become a little bit um more difficult to sustain over the long term what i will say about that is we have certainly seen this found um this fabulous model explode over the last few years you're seeing companies that can focus on software frameworks and innovation that aren't necessarily getting caught up in dealing with the large capital expenditures and overhead the ability to as you suggested in the topics here partner with a company like arm that's developing innovation and then and then um you know offering it uh to everybody right and for a licensee and then they can quickly build we're seeing what that's doing with companies like aws that are saying we're going to just build it alibaba we're just going to build it these aren't chip makers these aren't companies that were even considered chip makers they are now today competing as chip makers so there's a lot of different dynamics going back to your comment about wright's law like i said as we normalize and we figure out this situation on a global scale um i do believe that the who can manufacture the most will certainly continue to have significant competitive advantages yeah no so that's a really interesting point that you're bringing up because one of the things that it leads me to think is that the chip shortage could actually benefit intel i think will benefit intel so i want to introduce this some other data and then get your thoughts on this very simply the chart on the left shows pc shipments which peaked in in 2011 and then began at steady decline until covid and they've the pcs as we know have popped up in terms of volume in the past year and looks like they'll be up again this year the chart on the right is cumulative arm shipments and so as we've reported we think arm wafer volumes are 10x those of x86 volumes and and as such the arm ecosystem has far better cost structure than intel and that's why pat gelsinger was called in to sort of save the day so so daniel i just kind of again opened up this this can of worms but i think you're saying long term volume is going to be critical that's going to confer low cost advantages but in the in in the near to mid-term intel could actually benefit from uh from this chip shortage well intel is the opportunity to position itself as a leader in solving the repatriation crisis uh this will kind of carry over when we talk more about china and taiwan and that relationship and what's going on there we've really identified a massive gap in our uh in america supply chain in the global supply chain because we went from i don't have the stat off hand but i have a rough number dave and we can validate this later but i think it was in like the 30-ish high 30ish percentile of manufacturing of chips were done here in the united states around 1990 and now we're sub 10 as of 2020. so we we offshored almost all of our production and so when we hit this crisis and we needed more manufacturing volume we didn't have it ready part of the problem is you get people like elon musk that come out and make comments to the media like oh it'll be fixed later this year well you can't build a fab in a year you can't build a fab and start producing volume and the other problem is not all chips are the same so not every fab can produce every chip and when you do have fabs that are capable of producing multiple chips it costs millions of dollars to change the hardware and to actually change the process so it's not like oh we're going to build 28 today because that's what ford needs to get all those f-150s out of the lot and tomorrow we're going to pump out more sevens for you know a bunch of hp pcs it's a major overhaul every time you want to retool so there's a lot of complexity here but intel is the one domestic company us-based that has basically raised its hand and said we're going to put major dollars into this and by the way dave the arm chart you showed me could have a very big implication as to why intel wants to do that yeah so right because that's that's a big part of of foundry right is is get those volumes up so i want to hold that thought because i just want to introduce one more data point because one of the things we often talk about is the way in which alternative processors have exploded onto the scene and this chart here if you could bring that up patrick thank you shows the way in which i think you're pointing out intel is responding uh by leveraging alternative fat but once again you know kind of getting getting serious about manufacturing chips what the chart shows is the performance curve it's on a log scale for in the blue line is x86 and the orange line is apple's a series and we're using that as a proxy for sort of the curve that arm is on and it's in its performance over time culminating in the a15 and it measures trillions of operations per second so if you take the traditional x86 curve of doubling every 18 to 24 months that comes out roughly to about 40 percent improvement per year in performance and that's diminishing as we all know to around 30 percent a year because the moore's law is waning the orange line is powered by arm and it's growing at over a hundred percent really 110 per year when you do the math and that's when you combine the cpu the the the neural processing unit the the the xpu the dsps the accelerators et cetera so we're seeing apple use arm aws to you to your point is building chips on on graviton and and and tesla's using our list is long and this is one reason why so daniel this curve is it feels like it's the new performance curve in the industry yeah we are certainly in an era where companies are able to take control of the innovation curve using the development using the open ecosystem of arm having more direct control and price control and of course part of that massive arm number has to do with you know mobile devices and iot and devices that have huge scale but at the same time a lot of companies have made the decision either to move some portion of their product development on arm or to move entirely on arm part of why it was so attractive to nvidia part of the reason that it's under so much scrutiny that that deal um whether that deal will end up getting completed dave but we are seeing an era where we want we i said lust for power i talked about lust for semiconductors our lust for our technology to do more uh whether that's software-defined vehicles whether that's the smartphones we keep in our pocket or the desktop computer we use we want these machines to be as powerful and fast and responsive and scalable as possible if you can get 100 where you can get 30 improvement with each year and generation what is the consumer going to want so i think companies are as normal following the demand of consumers and what's available and at the same time there's some economic benefits they're they're able to realize as well i i don't want to i don't want to go too deep into nvidia arm but what do you handicap that that the chances that that acquisition actually happens oh boy um right now there's a lot of reasons it should happen but there are some reasons that it shouldn't i still kind of consider it a coin toss at this point because fundamentally speaking um you know it should create more competition but there are some people out there that believe it could cause less and so i think this is going to be hung up with regulators a little bit longer than we thought we've already sort of had some previews into that dave with the extensions and some of the timelines that have already been given um i know that was a safe answer and i will take credit for being safe this one's going to be a hard one to call but it certainly makes nvidia an amazing uh it gives amazing prospects to nvidia if they're able to get this deal done yeah i i agree with you i think it's 50 50. okay my i want to pose the question is intel too strategic to fail in march of this year we published this article where we posed that question uh you and i both know pat pretty well we talked about at the time the multi-front war intel is waging in a war with amd the arm ecosystem tsmc the design firms china and we looked at the company's moves which seemed to be right from a strategy standpoint the looking at the potential impact of the u.s government intel's partnership with ibm and what that might portend the us government has a huge incentive to make sure intel wins with onshore manufacturing and that looming threat from china but daniel is intel too strategic to fail and is pat gelsinger making the right moves well first of all i do believe at this current juncture where the semiconductor and supply chain shortage and crisis still looms that intel is too strategic to fail i also believe that intel's demise is somewhat overstated not to say intel doesn't have a slate of challenges that it's going to need to address long term just with the technology adoption curve that you showed being one of them dave but you have to remember the company still has nearly 90 of the server cpu market it still has a significant market share in client and pc it is seeing market share erosion but it's not happened nearly as fast as some people had suggested it would happen with right now with the demand in place and as high as it is intel is selling chips just about as quickly as it can make them and so we right now are sort of seeing the tam as a whole the demand as a whole continue to expand and so intel is fulfilling that need but where are they really too strategic to fail i mean we've seen in certain markets in certain uh process in um you know client for instance where amd has gained of course that's still x86 we've seen uh where the m1 was kind of initially thought to be potentially a pro product that would take some time it didn't take nearly as long for them to get that product in good shape um but the foundry and fab side is where i think intel really has a chance to flourish right now one it can play in the arm space it can build these facilities to be able to produce and help support the production of volumes of chips using arm designs so that actually gives intel and inroads two is it's the company that has made the most outspoken commitment to invest in the manufacturing needs of the united states both here in the united states and in other places across the world where we have friendly ally relationships and need more production capabilities if not in intel b and there is no other logical company that's us-based that's going to meet the regulator and policymakers requirements right now that is also raising their hand and saying we have the know-how we've been doing this we can do more of this and so i think pat is leaning into the right area and i think what will happen is very likely intel will support manufacturing of chips by companies like qualcomm companies like nvidia and if they're able to do that some of the market share losses that they're potentially facing with innovation challenges um and engineering challenges could be offset with growth in their fab and foundry businesses and i think i think pat identified it i think he's going to market with it and you know convincing the street that's going to be a whole nother thing that this is exciting um but i think as the street sees the opportunity here this is an area that intel can really lean into so i think i i think people generally would recognize at least the folks i talk to and it'll be interested in your thoughts who really know this business that intel you know had the best manufacturing process in in the world obviously that's coming to question but but but but for instance people say well intel's 10 nanometer you know is comparable to tsm seven nanometer and that's sort of overstated their their nanometer you know loss but but so so they they were able to point as they were able to sort of hide some of the issues maybe in design with great process and and i i believe that comes down to volume so the question i have then is and i think so i think patrick's pat is doing the right thing because he's going after volume and that's what foundry brings but can he get enough volume or does he need for inst for instance i mean one of the theories i've put out there is that apple could could save the day for intel if the if the us government gets apple in a headlock and says hey we'll back off on break up big tech but you got to give pat some of your foundry volume that puts him on a steeper learning curve do you do you worry sometimes though daniel that intel just even with like qualcomm and broadcom who by the way are competitors of theirs and don't necessarily love them but even even so if they could get that those wins that they still won't have the volume to compete on a cost basis or do you feel like even if they're numbered a number three even behind samsung it's good enough what are your thoughts on that well i don't believe a company like intel goes into a business full steam and they're not new to this business but the obvious volume and expansion that they're looking at with the intention of being number two or three these great companies and you know that's same thing i always say with google cloud google's not out to be the third cloud they're out to be one well that's intel will want to to be stronger if the us government and these investments that it's looking at making this 50 plus billion dollars is looking to pour into this particular space which i don't think is actually enough but if if the government makes these commitments and intel being likely one of the recipients of at least some of these dollars to help expedite this process move forward with building these facilities to make increased manufacturing very likely there's going to be some precedent of law a policy that is going to be put in place to make sure that a certain amount of the volume is done here stateside with companies this is a strategic imperative this is a government strategic imperative this is a putting the country at risk of losing its technology leadership if we cannot manufacture and control this process of innovation so i think intel is going to have that as a benefit that the government is going to most likely require some of this manufacturing to take place here um especially if this investment is made the last thing they're going to want to do is build a bunch of foundries and build a bunch of fabs and end up having them not at capacity especially when the world has seen how much of the manufacturing is now being done in taiwan so i think we're concluding and i i i correctly if i'm wrong but intel is too strategic to fail and and i i sometimes worry they can go bankrupt you know trying to compete with the likes of tsmc and that's why the the the public policy and the in the in the partnership with the u.s government and the eu is i think so important yeah i don't think bankruptcy is an immediate issue i think um but while i follow your train of thought dave i think what you're really looking at more is can the company grow and continue to get support where i worry about is shareholders getting exhausted with intel's the merry-go-round of not growing fast enough not gaining market share not being clearly identified as a leader in any particular process or technology and sort of just playing the role of the incumbent and they the company needs to whether it's in ai whether it's at the edge whether it's in the communications and service provider space intel is doing well you look at their quarterly numbers they're making money but if you had to say where are they leading right now what what which thing is intel really winning uh consistently at you know you look at like ai and ml and people will point to nvidia you look at you know innovation for um client you know and even amd has been super disruptive and difficult for intel uh of course you we've already talked about in like mobile um how impactful arm has been and arm is also playing a pretty big role in servers so like i said the market share and the technology leadership are a little out of skew right now and i think that's where pat's really working hard is identifying the opportunities for for intel to play market leader and technology leader again and for the market to clearly say yes um fab and foundry you know could this be an area where intel becomes the clear leader domestically and i think that the answer is definitely yes because none of the big chipmakers in the us are are doing fabrication you know they're they're all outsourcing it to overseas so if intel can really lead that here grow that large here then it takes some of the pressure off of the process and the innovation side and that's not to say that intel won't have to keep moving there but it does augment the revenue creates a new profit center and makes the company even more strategic here domestically yeah and global foundry tapped out of of sub 10 nanometer and that's why ibm's pseudonym hey wait a minute you had a commitment there the concern i have and this is where again your point is i think really important with the chip shortage you know to go from you know initial design to tape out took tesla and apple you know sub sub 24 months you know probably 18 months with intel we're on a three-year design to tape out cycle maybe even four years so they've got to compress that but that as you well know that's a really hard thing to do but the chip shortage is buying them time and i think that's a really important point that you brought out early in this segment so but the other big question daniel i want to test with you is well you mentioned this about seeing arm in the enterprise not a lot of people talk about that or have visibility on that but i think you're right on so will arm and nvidia be able to seriously penetrate the enterprise the server business in particular clearly jensen wants to be there now this data from etr lays out many of the enterprise players and we've superimposed the semiconductor giants in logos the data is an xy chart it shows net score that's etr's measure of spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal axis market share is not like idc market share its presence in the data set and as we reported before aws is leading the charge in enterprise architecture as daniel mentioned they're they're designing their own chips nitro and graviton microsoft is following suit as is google vmware has project monterey cisco is on the chart dell hp ibm with red hat are also shown and we've superimposed intel nvidia china and arm and now we can debate the position of the logos but we know that one intel has a dominant position in the data center it's got to protect that business it cannot lose ground as it has in pcs because the margin pressure it would face two we know aws with its annapurna acquisition is trying to control its own destiny three we know vmware has project monterey and is following aws's lead to support these new workloads beyond x86 general purpose they got partnerships with pansando and arm and others and four we know cisco they've got chip design chops as does hpe maybe to a lesser extent and of course we know ibm has excellent semiconductor design expertise especially when it comes to things like memory disaggregation as i said jensen's going hard after the data center you know him well daniel we know china wants to control its own destiny and then there's arm it dominates mobile as you pointed out in iot can it make a play for the data center daniel how do you see this picture and what are your thoughts on the future of enterprise in the context of semiconductor competition it's going to take some time i believe but some of the investments and products that have been brought to market and you mentioned that shorter tape out period that shorter period for innovation whether it's you know the graviton uh you know on aws or the aiml chips that uh with trainium and inferentia how quickly aws was able to you know develop build deploy to market an arm-based solution that is being well received and becoming an increasing component of the services and and uh products that are being offered from aws at this point it's still pretty small and i would i would suggest that nvidia and arm in the spirit of trying to get this deal done probably don't necess don't want the enterprise opportunity to be overly inflated as to how quickly the company's going to be able to play in that space because that would somewhat maybe slow or bring up some caution flags that of the regulators that are that are monitoring this at the same time you could argue that arm offering additional options in competition much like it's doing in client will offer new form factors new designs um new uh you know new skus the oems will be able to create more customized uh hardware offerings that might be able to be unique for certain enterprises industries can put more focus you know we're seeing the disaggregation with dpus and how that technology using arm with what aws is doing with nitro but what what these different companies are doing to use you know semiconductor technology to split out security networking and storage and so you start to see design innovation could become very interesting on the foundation of arm so in time i certainly see momentum right now the thing is is most companies in the enterprise are looking for something that's fairly well baked off the shelf that can meet their needs whether it's sap or whether it's you know running different custom applications that the business is built on top of commerce solutions and so intel meets most of those needs and so arm has made a lot of sense for instance with these cloud scale providers but not necessarily as much sense for enterprises especially those that don't want to necessarily look at refactoring all the workloads but as software becomes simpler as refactoring becomes easier to do between different uh different technologies and processes you start to say well arm could be compelling and you know because the the bottom line is we know this from mobile devices is most of us don't care what the processor is the average person the average data you know they look at many of these companies the same in enterprise it's always mattered um kind of like in the pc world it used to really matter that's where intel inside was born but as we continue to grow up and you see these different processes these different companies nvidia amd intel all seen as very worthy companies with very capable technologies in the data center if they can offer economics if they can offer performance if they can offer faster time to value people will look at them so i'd say in time dave the answer is arm will certainly become more and more competitive in the data center like it was able to do at the edge in immobile yeah one of the things that we've talked about is that you know the software-defined data center is awesome but it also created a lot of wasted overhead in terms of offloading storage and and networking security and that much of that is being done with general purpose x86 processors which are more expensive than than for instance using um if you look at what as you mentioned great summary of what aws is doing with graviton and trainium and other other tooling what ampere is doing um in in in oracle and you're seeing both of those companies for example particularly aws get isvs to write so they can run general purpose applications on um on arm-based processors as well it sets up well for ai inferencing at the edge which we know arms dominating the edge we see all these new types of workloads coming into the data center if you look at what companies like nebulon and pensando and and others are doing uh you're seeing a lot of their offloads are going to arm they're putting arm in even though they're still using x86 in a lot of cases but but but they're offloading to arm so it seems like they're coming into the back door i understand your point actually about they don't want to overplay their hand there especially during these negotiations but we think that that long term you know it bears watching but intel they have such a strong presence they got a super strong ecosystem and they really have great relationships with a lot of the the enterprise players and they have influence over them so they're going to use that the the the chip shortage benefits them the uh the relationship with the us government pat is spending a lot of time you know working that so it's really going to be interesting to see how this plays out daniel i want to give you the last word your final thoughts on what we talked about today and where you see this all headed i think the world benefits as a whole with more competition and more innovation pressure i like to see more players coming into the fray i think we've seen intel react over the last year under pat gelsinger's leadership we've seen the technology innovation the angstrom era the 20a we're starting to see what that roadmap is going to look like we've certainly seen how companies like nvidia can disrupt come into market and not just using hardware but using software to play a major role but as a whole as innovation continues to take form at scale we all benefit it means more intelligent software-defined vehicles it puts phones in our hands that are more powerful it gives power to you know cities governments and enterprises that can build applications and tools that give us social networks and give us data-driven experiences so i'm very bullish and optimistic on as a whole i said this before i say it again i believe semiconductors will eat the world and then you know you look at the we didn't even really talk about the companies um you know whether it's in ai uh like you know grok or grav core there are some very cool companies building things you've got qualcomm bought nuvia another company that could you know come out of the blue and offer us new innovations in mobile and personal computing i mean there's so many cool companies dave with the scale of data the uh the the growth and demand and desire for connectivity in the world um it's never been a more interesting time to be a fan of technology the only thing i will say as a whole as a society as i hope we can fix this problem because it does create risks the supply chain inflation the economics all that stuff ties together and a lot of people don't see that but if we can't get this manufacturing issue under control we didn't really talk about china dave and i'll just say taiwan and china are very physically close together and the way that china sees taiwan and the way we see taiwan is completely different we have very little control over what can happen we've all seen what's happened with hong kong so there's just so many as i said when i started this conversation we've got all these trains on the track they're all moving but they're not in parallel these tracks are all converging but the convergence isn't perpendicular so sometimes we don't see how all these things interrelate but as a whole it's a very exciting time love being in technology and uh love having the chance to come out here and talk with you i love the optimism and you're right uh that competition in china that's going to come from china as well xi has made it a part of his legacy i think to you know re-incorporate taiwan that's going to be interesting to see i mean taiwan ebbs and flows with regard to you know its leadership sometimes they're more pro i guess i should say less anti-china maybe that's the better way to say it uh and and and you know china's putting in big fab capacity for nand you know maybe maybe people look at that you know some of that is the low end of the market but you know clay christensen would say well to go take a look at the steel industry and see what happened there so so we didn't talk much about china and that was my oversight but but they're after self-sufficiency it's not like they haven't tried before kind of like intel has tried foundry before but i think they're really going for it this time but but now what are your do you believe that china will be able to get self-sufficiency let's say within the next 10 to 15 years with semiconductors yes i would never count china out of anything if they put their mind to it if it's something that they want to put absolute focus on i think um right now china vacillates between wanting to be a good player and a good steward to the world and wanting to completely run its own show the the politicization of what's going on over there we all saw what happened in the real estate market this past week we saw what happened with tech ed over the last few months we've seen what's happened with uh innovation and entrepreneurship it is not entirely clear if china wants to give the more capitalistic and innovation ecosystem a full try but it is certainly shown that it wants to be seen as a world leader over the last few decades it's accomplished that in almost any area that it wants to compete dave i would say if this is one of gigi ping's primary focuses wanting to do this it would be very irresponsible to rule it out as a possibility daniel i gotta tell you i i love collaborating with you um we met face to face just recently and i hope we could do this again i'd love to have you you back on on the program thanks so much for your your time and insights today thanks for having me dave so daniel's website futuram research that's three use in futurum uh check that out for termresearch.com uh the the this individual is really plugged in he's forward thinking and and a great resource at daniel newman uv is his twitter so go follow him for some great stuff and remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you do is search for breaking analysis podcast we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and by the way daniel thank you for contributing your your quotes to siliconangle the writers there love you uh you can always connect on twitter i'm at divalanto you can email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com appreciate the comments on linkedin and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time you

(upbeat electronic music) >> Okay thanks, Adam, and the studio. We're here on the floor in Cloud City, right in the middle of all the action, the keynotes are going on in the background. It's a packed house. I'm John Furrier. Dave Vellante's on assignment, digging in, getting those stories. He'll have the analysis, he'll be back on theCUBE, but I want to welcome Chloe Richardson, who has been holding down the main stage here in Cloud City with amazing content that she's been hosting. Chloe, great to see you. Thanks for coming on theCUBE, and kicking it off day two with me. >> No, not at all. Thank you for having me! It's very exciting! I love what you guys have got over here, very fun! >> We're inside theCUBE. This is where all the action is, and also, Cloud City is really changing the game. If you look at what's going on here in Cloud City, it's pretty spectacular. >> No, I mean, the atmosphere is absolutely palpable. Isn't it? You can just feel it. People walk in and see what the future looks like for the telecoms industry. Very exciting. >> And you've been doing a great job on the main stage, we're really loving your content. Let's get into some of the content here. After the keynotes are going on, we're going to have DR maybe fly by the set later, we're going to check that out. But let's check out this videotape. This is TelcoDR. You got to check out this reel, and we'll be right back, and we'll talk about it. (smooth electronic music) >> TelcoDR burst onto the global telecom scene this year, making headlines for taking over the huge Erickson space at MWC 21, and for building Cloud City in just a hundred days. But why did the company go to such trouble? And what is their unique offering to the telecoms industry? And what drives their dynamic CEO, Danielle Royston, or DR, as everyone calls her? Cloud City Live caught up with DR, away from the hustle and bustle of the city to find out. (upbeat instrumental music) >> Hi, I'm Danielle Royston, coming to you from beautiful Barcelona! I'm here for MWC 21. About a hundred days ago, I decided to take over the iconic Erickson booth to turn it into Cloud City. Cloud City has over 30 vendors, and 70 demos, to introduce telco to what I think is the future for our industry. We're going to have three awesome experiences. We're going to talk about the new subscriber experience. We're going to talk about what's in store for the new network, and the future of work. And I'm really excited to create a community, and invite awesome telco executives to see this new feature. It's been a really tough 18 months, and we didn't know what MWC 21 was going to be like in terms of attendance. And so from the get-go, we planned this amazing experience that we call Cloud City Live. At Cloud City Live, we have two main components. We have the speaker series, where we have over 50 speakers from Amazon, Google, Microsoft, as well as CSPs, and awesome vendors, talking about the public cloud in telco. The second part of Cloud City Live is theCUBE. Think of this as like an ESPN desk of awesome tech interviews focused on telco and the public cloud, hosted by John furrier and Dave Vallente. Dave and John are going to talk to a variety of guests focused on telco in the public cloud. It's a great way for our virtual participants to feel like they're at the show, experiencing what's going on here. So excited to have them as part of the Cloud City booth. There's a ton of innovation going on in telco, and 20 years ago, Elon Musk set on his mission to Mars. I, like Elon Musk, am on a quest to take telco to the public cloud. Every year at MWC, there's always a flurry of announcements, and this year is no different. At this year's MWC, Totogi, a startup that I invested $1,000,000 in, will be launching. Totogi is introducing two products to the market this week at MWC. The first is at planetary scale charger. More than a charger, it's an engagement, coupling your network data with charging information to drive subscriber engagement, and doubling your ARPU. The second product that Totogi is introducing is a planetary scale BSS system, built on top of the TM Forum Open APIs. Both of these products will be available for viewing in the virtual booth, as well as on the show floor. The public cloud is an unstoppable mega trend that's coming to telco! I'm super excited to bring to you the vendors, the products, the demonstrations, and the speakers, both to people here in Barcelona, and virtually around the world! (upbeat instrumental music) Well, that was a fascinating insight into the origins of TelcoDR, why public cloud is going to truly disrupt the telecoms industry, and why DR herself is so passionate about it. If you'd like to find out more, come and see us at Cloud City. (groovy electronic music) >> Okay, thanks. Just rolling that reel. Chloe, I mean, look at that reel, I mean, DR, Danielle Royston, she's a star. And I've seen a lot of power players in the industry. She's got guts and determination, and she's got a vision, and she's not just, you know, making noise about telco and cloud, there's actually a lot of real good vision there! I mean, it's just so impressive. >> No, it really is. And for me, it's almost like the next moonshot. It's the moonshot of the telco world! She's innovative, she's exciting. And if we've learned anything over the last 18 months, it's that we need that in this industry, to grow for the future of the industry. So, so exciting. I think she's a real inspiration! >> And I love the fact that she's so takes the tiger by the tail. Because the telco industry is being disrupted, she's just driving the bus here. And I remember, I did a story on Teresa Carlson, who was with Amazon Web Services, she was running the public sector, and she was doing the same exact thing in that public sector world in DC, and around the world. She opened up regions in Bahrain, which as a woman, that was an amazing accomplishment. And she wasn't just a woman, she was just a power player! And she was an exceptional leader. I see DR doing the same thing, and people aren't going to like that, I'll tell you right now. People are going to be like, "Whoa, what's going on here?" >> Now of course, it's always that way we pioneers though, isn't it? At the time, people thinking what is going on here, we don't like change, why are being shaken up? But actually, afterwards, in retrospect, they think, "Oh, okay. I see why that happened, and we needed it." So, really exciting stuff. >> Making things happen, that's what we're doing here on theCUBE. Obviously, the main stage's doing a great job. Let's go check out this highlight reel. If you're watching and you missed some of the action, this is obviously the physical event back since 2019 in February, but there's also a hybrid event, a lot of virtual action going on. So, you got theCUBE Virtual, you got a lot of content on virtual sites. But in person here, we're going to go show you a highlight reel from what we did yesterday, and what was happening around the show. Enjoy this quick highlight reel from yesterday. (groovy electronic music) (cheerful instrumental music) (groovy electronic music) Okay. We're back here in theCUBE. We're on the main floor out here with Chloe, who is emceeing, hosting, and driving the content on the Cloud City main stage. Chloe, it's been great here. I mean so far, day one, I was watching your presentations and fireside chats you've been hosting. Awesome content. I mean, people are like jazzed up. >> Yeah, no, for sure. We had Scott Brighton on yesterday, who was our opening keynote on the live stage, and his session was all about the future of work, which is so relevant and so pertinent to now. And he talked about the way it's changing. And in 10 years, it's going to be a trillion dollar industry to be in the cloud at work. So, really interesting! I mean, yeah, the atmosphere here is great. Everyone's excited. It's new content everyday. And that's the thing, it's not stale content! It's stuff that people want to hear. People are here for the new hot trends, the new hot topics. It's very exciting. >> Yeah, the next big thing. And also it's a fiscal event, so since 2019, this Mobile World Congress has been a massive event, and hasn't happened since February, 2019. That's a lot of time that's elapsed in the industry because of COVID, and people are glad to be here. But a lot of stuff's changed! >> Yeah. It's a different world, right? I mean, two years in the telco industry is like a hundred years elsewhere. Everything has changed! Digital transformation migration, obviously cloud, which is what we're talking about over here at Cloud City Live. I'm wondering though, John, I'd like to pick your brains on something. >> John: Sure. >> It has changed in the last two years. We know that! But what about the future of Mobile World Congress? How do you see it changing in the next few years. >> Oh, man. That's a great question. I mean, my observation, I've been coming to the show for a very long time, over a decade and a half, and it's been a nerdy show about networks, and telecom, which is basically radios, and wireless, and then mobile. But it's very global, a lot of networks. But now it's evolving! And many people are saying, and we were talking on theCUBE yesterday, Dave Vellante was commenting, that this show is turning into a consumer like show. So CES is the big consumer electronics show in the US, in Las Vegas every year. This show has got a vibe, because of all the technology from the cloud players, and from the chips, getting smaller, faster, cheaper, more capability, lower power. So people look at the chips, the hardware. It's less about the speeds and feeds, it's more about the consumer experience. We got cars. I was talking to a guy yesterday, he said, "Vehicle e-commerce is coming." I went, "What the hell his vehicle e-commerce?" And you could be on your app driving down the freeway and go, "Hey, I want some food." Instead of having it delivered to you, you order it, you pick it up. So that's kind of what can be happening now in real time, you can do all kinds of other things. So, a lot of new things are happening. >> Yeah, I think so. Do you see that as another disruption for the industry? That is, the fact that it's moving to be more consumer focused? Is there anything we should be worried about in that space? >> Well, I think the incumbents are going to lose their positions. So I think in any new shift, new brands come in out of nowhere. And it's the people that you don't think about. It's the the company that you don't see. (audience in background applauding) And we got DR on the main stage right here, look at this! We saw her walk out with the confidence of a pro. >> Chloe: Yeah, for sure. >> She just walked out there, and she's not afraid. >> Well, as she said in her video, she is ready to wake them up! And you can see as soon as she walks out, that is what she intends to do today. >> I love her mojo. She's got a lot of energy. And back to the show, I mean, she's just an example of what I was saying. Like in every market shift, a new brand emerges. >> Chloe: Yep. >> I mean, even when Apple was tainted, they were about to shut down, they were going to run out of cash, when Steve Jobs brought back Apple, he consolidated and rebooted the company, the iPad was a seminal, iPod, a seminal moment. Then the iPhone, and just, the rest is history. That kind of disruption is coming. You're going to see that now. >> Oh, it's exciting though, isn't it? To be future ready, rather than future proof! But actually I wanted to ask you something as well, because we are seeing all these cloud players getting hot under the collar about telco. Why are they so excited? What's the buzz about wire, as you're on AWS and Google Cloud, why do they want to have a slice of the pie? >> Well, I think they're hot and heavy on the fact that telco is a ripe opportunity. And it used to be this boring, slow moving glacier. It's almost like global warming now, the icebergs are melting, and it's going to just change. And because of the edge, 5G is not a consumer wireless thing, it's not like a better phone. It's a commercial app opportunity, because it's high bandwidth. We've all been to concerts, or football games, or sporting events where a stadium is packed. Everyone gets bars on their wifi, but can't get out. Can't upload their picture to Instagram. Why? Because it's choking them on the network. That's where 5G solves a problem. It brings a lot of bandwidth, and that's going to bring the edge to life, and that's money. So when you got money, and greed, and power, changing hands, if it's on the table, and the wheel's spinning, it could be double zero, or it could be lucky seven. You don't know! >> Oh, for sure. And that's certainly enough to get all the big players hot and bothered about getting involved! And I suppose it circles back to the fact that DR is really leading the charge, and they're probably thinking, "Okay, what's going on here? This is different. We want something new." You did notice it, OpenRAN is something that we've been talking about over the last day or so. We've had quite a few of us speakers over here at Cloud City Live mention OpenRAN. What is it all about, Don? Because why all the buzz if 5G is such a hot topic? Why are we get excited about it? >> That's a great thing. The 5G certainly will drive the main trend, for sure. OpenRAN is essentially an answer to the fact that 5G is popular, and they need more infrastructure. So open source, the Linux Foundation, has been the driver for most of the open source software. So, they're trying to make open software, and open architectures, to create more entrepreneurial activity around hardware, and around infrastructure, because we need more infrastructure, we need more antennas, we need more transceivers, we need more devices. That could be open. So in order to do that, you got to open up the technology, and you want to minimize the licensing, and minimize a lot of these, you know, proprietary aspects. >> What did we look at? So on Wednesday, we've got a great keynote from Phillip Langlois, who is CEO and founder of P1 Security. And he's coming to talk to us about cybersecurity within the cloud, and within telco. So you just mentioned that OpenRAN is all about having open source, about having that space where we can share more efficiently and easily more easily. What does that mean for security though? Is it at risk? >> I think it's going to increase the value of security, and minimize the threats. Because open source, even though it's open, the more people that are working on it, the more secure it could be. So yes, it could be more open in a sense that could be explored by hackers, but open can also protect. And I think we've seen open source, and cloud in particular, be more secure. Because everyone said, cloud is not secure, open source is insecure. And as it turns out, when the collective hive minds of developers work on things, it gets secure. >> And it is interesting, isn't it? Because we have seen that there has been an uptick in cyber security threats, but actually I was speaking to some leaders across various industries, and particularly in tech, and they were saying, actually, there's not been an uptick in attempted threats, there's been an uptick because with this open-source environment, we are able to track them, and measure them, and defend more efficiently. So actually, they're being batted away. But the number is probably the same as it always was, we just didn't know about them before we had this open source environment. >> There's more money in threats, and there's more surface area. So as the tide rises, so to the threats. So on a net basis, it's more, because there's more volume, but it's pretty much the same. And look it, there's money involved, they are organized. There's a business model on attacking and getting the cash out of your bank, or ransomware is at an all time high. >> Yes! >> So this is like a big problem, and it's beyond the government. It's around individual freedom. So, security is huge. And I think open source and cloud are going to be, I think, the answer to that. >> Yeah, for sure. And it's, again, about collaboration, isn't it? Which we talk about all the time, but without collaboration, the industries are going to have to work together to promote this environment. So yeah, it should be good to talk with Phillip on Wednesday. >> I'd just say on security, don't download that PDF, if you don't know who it came from. The phishing is always good. Well, we got some great stuff coming up. We're going to have a great day. We got a video here of Mobile World Live. We're going to show this next segment, and we're going to toss it to a video. And this is really about to give the experience, Chloe, for people who aren't here. To get a feel for what's going on in Barcelona, and all the action. And if you look at the video, enjoy it. >> Hi, I'm Daniel Royston, CEO and founder of TelcoDR. But you can call me DR! Ready for some more straight talk about telco? It's go time! Let's do it. Holy shit! It sure is a great time to be a tech company! I mean, if you're Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Grab, Twilio, Door Dash, or Uber, life's pretty great! Just look at these stock prices over the past five years, with their shareholder value going up and to the right. Totally amazing! But where's telco? Dare I add our stocks to this awesome chart? Let's compare these fabulous tech stocks to AT&T, Vodafone, Telefonica, TIM, America Movil, and Zain Group. Huh. Not so great, right? Yep. I'm talking directly to you, senior telco execs. I'm here to wake you up! Why is it that Wall Street doesn't see you as tech? Why aren't CSPs seen as driving all the tech change? Why is it always Apple, Amazon and Google who get the big buzz? But more importantly, why isn't it you? Before I came to this industry, I always thought of carriers as tech companies. I gave more of my money to AT&T than to Apple, because I really cared about the quality of the network. But I also wondered why on earth the carriers allowed all the other tech companies to take center stage. After spending the last few years in telco, I now understand why. It's because you are network people, you are not customer people! I get it. You have the security blanket. You're a network oligopoly. It's crazy expensive to build a network, and it's expensive to buy spectrum. It takes operational chops to run a killer network, and it takes great skill to convince Wall Street to finance all of it. You telco execs are amazing at all those things. But because you focus on the network, it means you don't focus on the customer. And so far, you haven't had to. Every Telco's KPI is to be less shitty than their next competitor. You don't have to be the best. Just don't be last. Everyone else's NPS is in the thirties too. Their mobile app ratings are just as terrible as yours. Everyone's sucks at customer sat. And it's widely acknowledged and accepted. Let's talk about the cost of that. The cost is not measured on market share against other MNOs. The cost is measured in lost ARPU that the tech guys are getting. Everyone knows about the loss of texting to WeChat, WhatsApp, and the other OTT apps. But it is not just texting. The total adjustable market, or TAM, of the mobile app disruptors is huge! Instead of remaining network focused, you should be leveraging your network into a premier position. And because you're network people, I bet you think I'm talking about coercive network leverage. That is not what I'm talking about! I'm talking about love, customer love. There is one thing the highly valued tech companies all have in common. They all crush it on customer love! They look at every interaction with the customer and say, how do we make the customer love this? Like Netflix has easy monthly cancellation, Amazon does no questions asked returns, Uber gives users a real time view into driver rating and availability. Compare those ideas to the standard telco customer interaction. The highly valued tech companies don't have the network oligopoly to fall back on like you do. To survive, they must make customers love them. So, they focus on it in a big way! And it pays off. Their NPS is close to 70, and they have app ratings of 4.5 or higher. A far cry from your thirties NPS, and app ratings of 3.5. If you want to have those huge tech multiples for yourself, you have to start thinking about these guys as your new competition, not the other telcos in your market. The crazy thing is, if you give up using your network as a crutch, and put all of your focus on the customer, the network becomes an asset worth more than all the super apps. Let's step back and talk about the value of super apps, and becoming customer centered! Retooling around the customer is a huge change, so let's make sure it's worth it. We aren't talking about 25% improvement. I'm going to show you that if you become customer centric, you can double your ARPU, double your valuation multiples, and drive big shareholder value, just like the tech companies on that chart! Now let's talk about the customer focused super apps. There are hundreds of companies in a variety of categories vying for your subscribers' disposable income. Movies, food delivery, financial services. Who are they? And why does Wall Street give them such high valuations and like them so much? Well first, look at what they are telling Wall Street about their TAM. They broadcast ridiculously huge TAMs that are greater than the telco TAMs. You know, who should have a ridiculously huge TAM? You! Hello? What I'm saying is that if you got what's yours, you double in size. And if you take the TAMs they throw around, you'd be five times as big. When I think about the opportunity to double ARPU, without having to double the cap ex to build out the network, I say to myself, hell yeah! We should totally go do it, and do whatever it takes to go get it. For example, let's talk about Grab. Grab is a Southeast Asian super app company with an expected $40 billion valuation. Grab's customer focus started in Rideshare, but then leveraged its customer love into wallet deliveries, hospitality, and investing. Their ARPU is now larger than a Telco's ARPU in countries where they compete, and they have a higher valuation than those telcos too. Imagine if you could combine a great user experience with the valuable services that helped grow your ARPU. That would be huge! So, how do you build a super app? I bet right about now, you're wishing you had a super app. Everyone wants a super app! A lot of money has been unsuccessfully spent by telcos trying to build their own. I bet you're saying to yourself, "DR, your pie in the sky sounds great, but it has no chance of success." Well, I'm betting things are about to change. There is a public cloud startup called to Totogi that is going to help carriers build world-class super apps. To have a successful super app, there is one key metric you need to know. It is the KPI that determines if your super app will be a success or a flop. It's not about the daily active users. It's not the average order value. It's not even gross merchandise value. It's all about the frequency of use per day by the user. That's the metric that matters. How many have you used that metric in your telco apps? Do you have a team driving up user app interactions every day? Most telco apps are used for top-up, or to check a bill. This is a huge missed opportunity. Super app companies excel at building great experiences and driving a huge amount of interactions. They have to, their business depends on it. They have to be customer focused. They have to keep bringing the user back to the app, every day, multiple times a day. And you know what? They do a great job. Customers love their super apps. They have great user experiences. Like Apple credit cards, no information required application process. They have high net promoter scores because of customer friendly policies. Like how Door Dash retroactively credits fees when you move to a better plan. And they have great app store ratings, because they do simple things, like remember your last order, or allow you to use the app, rather than forced you to call customer service. Customers of successful super apps love it when new services are added. And because of the customer love, every time something is added to the app, customers adopt it immediately. New services drive frequent daily user interactions. So our problem in telco is we have an app that is only open once per month, not multiple times per day. And without frequent opens, there is no super app. Hm, what do we have in telco that we could use to help with this problem? I wonder. While you don't currently have a mobile app that subscribers use multiple times a day, you have something that's 10 times better! You have a network. Subscribers already interact with your network. 10 times more frequently than any user with any of the super apps. But telcos don't leverage those interactions into the insanely valuable engagements they could be. Worse, even if you wanted to, your crappy, over customized, on-premise solutions, make it impossible. Thankfully, there's this new tech that's come around, you may have heard of it, the public cloud. When you bring the enabling technology of the public cloud, you can turn your network interactions into valuable super app interactions. And there's a special new startup that's going to help you do it, Totogi! Totogi will leverage all those network interactions, and turn them into valuable customer interactions. Let me repeat that. Totogi will leverage all those network interactions, and turn them into valuable customer interactions. Totogi allows the carrier to leverage its network, and all the network interactions, into customer engagement. This is something that super apps don't have, but will wish they did. But this magic technology is not enough. Telcos also need to move from being network focused to being customer focused. Totogi enables telcos to chase exciting revenue growth without that annoying, massive cap ex investment. Totogi is going to help you transform your sucky mobile apps, with the crappy customer ratings, into something your subscribers want to open multiple times a day, and become a platform for growth. I'm so excited about Totogi, I'm investing $100,000,000 into it. You heard me right. $100,000,000. Is this what it feels like to be SoftBank? I'm investing into Totogi because it's going to enable telcos to leverage their network interactions into super app usage! Which will lead to an improved subscriber experience, and will give you a massive jump in your ARPU. And once you do that, all those telco valuations will go from down here, (buzzes lips) to up here. And so I've been talking to some folks, you know, checking in, feeling them out, getting their thoughts. And I've been asking them, what do you think about telcos building super apps? And the response has been, "Click. Eh." Everyone says, no way. Telcos can't do it. Zero chance. Total goose egg. (egg cracking) One suggested I build a bonfire with a hundred million dollars, because then at least I wouldn't waste years of my life. Well, I think those people are dead wrong! I do believe that telcos can build super apps and make them super successful. The public cloud is changing all parts of telco, and Totogi and super apps are fundamentally changing the customer relationships. In one month at MWC, people will see what Totogi has to offer, and they will understand why I'm making this bold call. Because Totogi takes the value of the network, and the power of the public cloud, to help telcos move from being network centric, to being customer centric. Boom! If you want to make this transformation and reap all the financial benefits, you will have to compete for customers with a whole new set of players. You will no longer compete with the network focused guys, like the other telcos. Instead, you will be competing against the customer focused companies. These players don't have a network to fall back on like your old competitors, they know they have to make customers love them. Their customer loyalty is so off the charts, their customers are called fans. So if you want that big money, you will have to compete on their turf, and make the customers want to choose you. You need Apple level loyalty. That bar is uber high. We'll have to give up the security blanket of the network, and change. Instead of NPS at the thirties, it needs to be in the seventies. Instead of mobile app ratings in the threes, they need to get five stars. I'm betting big that Totogi will make that possible! I'm going to help you every step of the way, starting with my keynote next month at MWC. Join me, and I'll share the secrets to converting your super valuable network interactions to make your super app a massive success. We're going to have an amazing time, and I can't wait to see you there! >> Okay. We're back here in theCUBE here at Mobile World Congress in Cloud City. I'm John Furrier. Chloe Richardson's filling in for Dave Vellante who's out on assignment. He's out getting all the data out there and getting stories. Chloe, what a great keynote by Danielle Royston. We just heard her involving major action, major pump you up, punch in the face, "Wake the heck up cloud people, cloud is here!" She didn't pull any punches. >> No, I mean the thing is, John, there's trillions of dollars on the table, and everyone seems to be fighting for it. >> And you heard her up there, if you're not on the public cloud, you're not going to get access to that money. It's a free for all. And I think the cloud people are like, they might think they're going to walk right in, and the telco industry is going to just give it up. >> No, of course. >> And it's not going to be, it's going to be a fight! Who will win? >> Who will win, but also who will build the next big thing? (John laughing) >> Someone needs to die in the media conversations. It's always a fight. Something's dead. Something's dead but keeps the living. All that kidding aside, this is really about partnering. Think what's happened is Telco's already acknowledged that they need to change. And the 5G edge conversation, the chip acceleration. Look at Apple. They've got their own processors, Nvidia, Amazon makes their own chips, Intel's pumping stuff out, you've got Qualcomm. You've got all these new things. So, the chips are getting faster, and the software's more open source. And I'm telling you, the cloud is just going to drive that bus right down Cloud Street, and it's going to be in Cloud City everywhere. >> And it's going to be peepin' on the board as it drives down. (John laughing) John, I'm not a stalker, but I have read some of the things that you've written, and one of the things you mentioned that was really interesting was the difference between building and operating. Break it down for me, what does that mean? >> That means basically in mature markets, and growing markets, things behave differently, and certainly economics, and the people, and the makeup, and the mindset. So the telco has been kind of this mature market, it's been changing and growing, but not like radically. Cost optimization, make profit. You know, to install a lot of cable, you got to get the rents out of that infrastructure. And that's kind of gone on for too long. Cloud is a growth market. And it's about building, not just operating. And you've got operators, carriers are operating networks. So you're going to see the convergence of operators and builders coming together. Builders being software developers, new technology, and executives that think about building. And you want people on your team that are going to be, I won't say war time, you know, lieutenants or generals, but people who can handle the pace of change. Because the change and the nature is different. And some people want slow and steady, keep the boat from rocking. But in a growth market, it's turbulent, and the ride might not be quiet, first-class ticket to paradise. It's bumpy, but it's thrilling. >> No, of course. Is it similar to the old sales adage of hunter versus farmer? Are there parallels there? >> Yeah. I mean, there's a mindset. If you have a team of people that aren't knocking down new opportunities and building the next big thing, fixing your house, get your house in order, you know, refactor, reset, reboot, replatform with the cloud, and then refactor your business! If you don't have the people thinking like that, you're probably either going to be taken over, or go out of business. And that's what the telcos with all these assets, they're going to get bought, rolled into a SPAC, Special Purpose Acquisition Company, which is super hot in the United States. A lot of roll-ups going on with private equity. So a lot of these telcos, if they don't refactor, or replatform then refactor, they're going to be toast, and they're going to get rolled up, and eaten up by somebody else. >> Yeah, sure. It's interesting though, isn't it? Because when we think of telco in tech, we often think of, obviously we've got the triad, people, process, technology, and we think, process and technology really to the forefront here. But like you said there, people are also so important because if you don't have this right balance, you're not going to be able to drive that change. We had, obviously, Scott Brighton on the stage yesterday, and after his session, somebody came up to me and just said, "I'm interested to hear what that means for education." So how can we establish this new generation of tech and telco leaders from the grassroots with educational associations, establishments. How can we encourage that? I wonder, is this something that you talk about? >> Yeah. I mean, education's huge, and this highlights the change that telco's now part of. Telco used to be a boring industry that ran the networks, or moving packets around, and mobile was there. But once the iPhone came out in 2007, the life has changed, society has changed, education's changed, how people interact has changed. So, you start to see people now aware of the value. And if you look at during COVID, the internet didn't crash, the telcos actually saved our asses, and everyone survived because the network didn't break. Yeah, we had some bad Zoom meetings here and there, and some teleconferences that didn't go well, but for the most part we survived, and they really saved everybody. So, they should get kudos for that. But now they're dependent upon healthcare, education. People care about that stuff, so now you're going to start to see an elevated focus on what telecom is doing. That's why the edge has got trillions of dollars up for grabs. But education, there's negative unemployment in cybersecurity and in cloud. So for the people who say, "Oh, there's no jobs." Or, "I can't work." That's a bunch of BS, because you can just get online, get on YouTube, and just get a degree. You can get a degree. You can get an Amazon job. It pays a hundred thousand dollars a year! American. You can make a hundred thousand pounds, and be unemployed six months, and then be employed. So negative unemployment means, there's more jobs than people to fill them all, in fact. >> Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned that, because I was talking to a cyber security leader who was saying in something, I think there were now 3 million vacancies in cybersecurity. And there's such a skill shortage. There is nobody around to fill it! So it's an interesting problem to have, isn't it? Because it's reversed to what we've been used to for the last few decades! And obviously, telco is in the same space. But what can we do about it do you think, to actually -- >> I think it's going to take leadership, and I'm a big proponent of kids not going to university if they don't have to. Why spend the dough, money, if you don't have to? You can get online. I mean, the data's there. But to me, it's the relationships, the mentorship. You're starting to see a women in tech, and underrepresented minorities in the tech field, where mentorship is more important than curriculum. Community is more important than just going through a linear courseware. Nobody wants to sit online and go through linear courseware. Now, if they have to get a certificate, or degree, and accreditation, no problem. But the communities are out there, so that's a big change over, I'm a big fan of that. And I think people should, you know, get some specialized skills. You can get that online, so why even go to school? So, people are figuring that out. >> For sure. And also, even transferring. I mean, so many skills are transferable nowadays, aren't they, so we could easily be talking to people from other industries, and bringing them into telco, and saying, "Look, bring what you know from your retail background, or your healthcare background, and help us at telco to, again, drive forwards." Just like DR was saying, it's all about the next big thing. >> Well, Danielle is always also driving a lot of change. And if you think about the jobs, and the pedigree of going to a university, oh, Harvard, all the big Ivy Leagues, Oxford in your area. So it's like, if you go to the school like that, and you get a pedigree, you instantly get a job. Now the jobs that are available weren't around five years ago, so there's no like pedigree or track record. There's no like, everyone's equal. >> Yeah. >> So you could, the democratization of the internet now, from a job standpoint, is people are leveling up faster. So it's not about the Ivy League, or the big degree, or silver spoon in your mouth, you've got the entitlement. So you start to see people emerging and making things happen. Entrepreneurship in America, immigrant entrepreneurship. People are billionaires that have no high school diplomas! >> It's interesting you mention that, John, because we can't have more than five years experience in this space, we know that. But in telco, there is a problem. And maybe it's, again, it's a flipped problem where telco recruiters, or talent acquisition leaders, are now asking for kind of 10, 20 years experience when they're sending out job descriptions. So does that mean that we are at fault for not being able to fill all these vacancies? >> I think that's just, I mean I think there's a transition of the new skill set happening, one. But two, I think, you know, to be like a chip engineer, (laughs) you can't learn that online. But if you want to run a cloud infrastructure, you can. But I think embedded systems is an area that I was talking to an engineer, there's a huge shortage of engineers who code on the microprocessors, on the chips. So, embedded systems is a big career. So there's definitely paths you can specialize. Space is another area you've seen a lot of activity on. You see Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk is going to be here on a virtual keynote, trying to go to Mars. And you know, Danielle Royston always says, "What's going to happen first, Mars colony, or telco adopting public cloud?" And some people think Mars will happen first, but. >> What do you think, John? >> I think Telco's going to get cloud. I mean first of all, public cloud is now hybrid cloud, and the edge, this whole internet edge, 5G, is so symbolic and so important, because it's an architectural beachhead. And that's where the trillion dollar baby is. So, the inside baseball, and the inside money, and all the investors are focusing on the edge, because whoever can command the edge, wins all the dollars. So everyone kind of knows, it's a public secret, and it's fun to watch everyone jockey for the positions. >> Yeah no, it really is. But it's also quite funny, isn't it? Because the edge is almost where we were decades ago, but we're putting the control back in the hands of consumers. So, it's an interesting flip. And I wonder if, with the edge, we can really enhance this acceleration of product development, this efficiency, this frictionless system in which we live in. And also, I've heard you say hybrid a few times, John. >> John: Yeah. >> Is hybrid going to be the future of the world no matter what industry you're in? >> Hybrid is everything now. So, we're the hybrid CUBE, we've got hybrid cloud. >> Exactly. >> You got hybrid telco, because now you've got the confluence of online and offline coming together. That is critical dynamic! And you're seeing it. Like virtual reality, for instance, now you're seeing things, I know you guys are doing some great work at your company around creating experiences that are virtual. You got, companies like Roblox went public recently. Metaverse. It's a good time to be in that business, because experiential human relations are coming. So, I think that's going to be powered by 5G. You know, gamers. So, all good stuff. Chloe, great to be with you here on theCUBE, and we're looking forward to seeing your main stage. >> Great. >> And then we're going to send it back to the studio, Adam, and the team. We're waiting for DR to arrive here in Cloud City. And this is theCUBE, from Cloud City, back to you, Adam, and the studio.

(upbeat music) >> Okay, thanks Adam in the studio. We're here on the floor in Cloud City, right in the middle of all the action. The keynotes are going on in the background, it's a packed house. I'm John Furrier. Dave Vellante is on assignment, digging in, getting those stories. He'll have the analysis, he'll be back on theCUBE but I want to welcome Chloe Richardson, who has been holding down the main stage here in Cloud City, with amazing content that she's been hosting. Chloe, great to see you. Thanks for coming on theCUBE and kicking it up day two with me. >> No, not at all. Thank you for having me. It's very exciting. I love what you guys have got over here, very fun. >> We're inside theCUBE. This is where all the action is. And also the Cloud City is really changing the game. If you look at what's going on here in Cloud City, it's pretty spectacular. >> Know, I mean the atmosphere is absolutely palpable, isn't it? You can just feel as people walk in and see what the future looks like to the Telecoms industry, it's very exciting. >> And you've been doing a great job on the main stage. We've been really loving your content. Let's get into some of the content here. Actually the keynote is going on, we're going to have DR, maybe fly by the set later, we're going to check that up. But let's check out this videotape of, this is TelcoDR. You got to check out this reel and we'll be right back, we'll talk about it. (upbeat music) >> TelcoDR burst onto the global telecom scene this year, making headlines for taking over the huge Erickson's space at MWC21. And for building Cloud City in just a hundred days. But why did the company go to such trouble? And what is the unique offering to the telecoms industry? And what drives their dynamic CEO, Danielle Royston or DR as everyone calls her? Cloud City Live caught up with DR, away from the hustle and bustle of the city to find out. (upbeat music) >> Hi, I'm Danielle Royston, coming to you from beautiful Barcelona. I'm here for MWC21. About a hundred days ago, I decided to take over the iconic Erickson booth to turn it into Cloud City. Cloud City has over 30 vendors and 70 demos to introduce telco to what I think is the future for our industry. We're going to have three awesome experiences. We're going to talk about the new subscriber experience, we're going to talk about what's in store for the new network and the future of work. I'm really excited to create a community and invite awesome telco executives to see this new future. It's been a really tough 18 months, and we didn't know what MWC21 was going to be like in terms of attendance. And so from the get go we plan this amazing experience that we call, Cloud City Live. At Cloud City Live, we have two main components. We have the speaker series where we have over 50 speakers from Amazon, Google, Microsoft, as well as CSPs and awesome vendors talking about the public cloud in telco. The second part of Cloud City Live, is theCUBE. Think of this as like an ESPN desk of awesome tech interviews focused on telco and the public cloud hosted by John Furrier and Dave Vellante. Dave and John are going to talk to a variety of guests, focused on telco and the public cloud. It's a great way for our virtual participants to feel like they're at the show, experiencing what's going on here. So excited to have them as part of the Cloud City booth. There's a ton of innovation going on in telco. And 20 years ago, Elon Musk set on his mission to Mars. I, like Elon Musk, I'm on a quest to take telco to the public cloud. Every year at MWC, there's always a flurry of announcements and this year is no different. At this year's MWC, Totogi, a startup that I invested a hundred million dollars in, will be launching. Totogi is introducing two products to the market, this week at MWC. The first is a planetary scale charger. More than a charger, it's an engagement coupling dual network data with charging information to drive subscriber engagement and doubling your ARPU. The second product that Totogi is introducing, is a planetary scale BSS system built on top of the TM forum, open APIs. Both of these products will be available for viewing in the virtual booth, as well as on the show for. The public cloud is an unstoppable mega trend that's coming to telco. I'm super excited to bring to you, the vendors, the products, the demonstrations, and the speakers, both to people here in Barcelona and virtually around the world. (upbeat music) >> Well, that was a fascinating insight into the origins of TelcoDR, why public cloud is going to truly disrupt the telecoms industry and why DR herself is so passionate about it. If you'd like to find out more, come and see us at Cloud City. (upbeat music) >> Okay, thanks. Just roll on that reel. Chloe, I mean, look at that reel. I mean, DR, Danielle Royston, she's a star and I've seen a lot of power players in the industry. She's got guts and determination, and she's got a vision and she's not just, you know, making noise about telco and cloud, there's actually a lot of real good vision there. I mean, it's just so impressive. >> No, really isn't. And for me, it's almost like the next moonshot. It's the moonshot of the telco world. She's innovative, she's exciting and if we've learned anything over the last 18 months is that we need to in this industry to grow and for the future of the industry. So, it's so exciting. I think she's a real inspiration. >> And I love the fact that she's so, takes a tiger by the tail, because the telco industry is being disrupted. She's just driving the bus here and I remember I did a story on Teresa Carlson, who was with Amazon web services, she was running the public sector and she was doing the same exact thing in that public sector world in DC and around the world. She opened up regions in Bahrain, which as a woman, that was an amazing accomplishment. And she wasn't just a woman, she was just a power player. And she was exceptional leader. I see DR doing the same thing and people aren't going to like that, I'll tell you right now. People are going to be like, whoa, what's going on here? >> And of course, it's always the way we pioneers though, isn't it? At the time people thinking what's going, we don't like change, why are we being shaken up. But actually afterwards, in retrospect, they think, oh, okay, I see why that happened and we needed it. So really exciting stuff. >> Making things happen, that's what we're doing here in theCUBE. Obviously the main stage's doing a great job. Let's go check out this highlight reel. If you're watching and you miss some of the action, this is, I'll see the physical event back since 2019 in February, but there's also a Hybrid event. A lot of virtual action going on. So you got theCUBE virtual, you got a lot of content on virtual sites, but in person here, we're going to go show you a highlight reel from what we did yesterday, what was happening around the show? Enjoy this quick highlight reel from yesterday. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) Okay. We're back here in theCUBE. We're the main floor out here with Chloe Richardson, who is emceeing, hosting and driving the content on the Cloud City main stage. Chloe, it's been great here. I mean, so far day one, I was watching your presentations and inspire site chats you've been hosting. Awesome content. I mean, people are like jazzed up. >> Yeah, I know for sure. We had Scott Brighton on yesterday, who was our opening keynote on the live stage. And his session was all about the future of work, which is so relevant and so pertinent to now. And he talked about the way it's changing and in 10 years it's going to be a trillion dollar industry to be in the cloud at work. So really interesting. I mean, yeah, the atmosphere here is great, everyone's excited, there's new content everyday. And that's the thing, it's not stale content. It's stuff that people want to hear. People are here for the new hot trends, the new hot topics. Really exciting. >> Yeah, the next big thing. And also it's a fiscal event. So since 2019, this Mobile World Congress has been a massive event and hasn't happened since February, 2019. That's a lot of time that's elapsed in the industry cause of COVID and people are glad to be here, but a lot of stuff's changed. >> Yeah, it's a different world, right? I mean, two years in the telco industry is like a hundred years elsewhere. Everything has changed, digital transformation migration, obviously cloud, which is what we're talking about over here at Cloud City Live. I'm wondering though John, I'd like to pick your brains on something. >> Sure. >> It has changed in the last two years, we know that, but what about the future of Mobile World Congress? How do you see it changing in the next few years? >> Oh man, that's a great question. I mean, my observation, I've been coming to the show for a very long time, over a decade and a half, and it's been a nerdy show about networks and telecom, which is basically radios and wireless and then mobile. It's very global, a lot of networks, but now it's evolving and many people are saying, and we were talking on theCUBE yesterday, Dave Vellante was commenting that this show is turning into a consumer like show. So CES is the big consumer electronics show in the US, in Las Vegas every year. This show has got a vibe because what's all the technology from the cloud players and from the chips, are getting smaller, faster, cheaper, more capability, lower power. So if you look at the chips, the hardware, it's less about the speeds and feeds. It's more about the consumer experience. You got cars. I was talking to a guy yesterday, he said, "Vehicle e-commerce is coming." I'm like, "What the hell his vehicle e-commerce?" And you could be on your app, driving down the freeway and go, "Hey, I want some food." Instead of having it delivered to you, if you order it you pick it up. So that's kind of can be happening now in real time, you can do all kinds of other things. so a lot of new things are happening. >> Yeah, I think so. Do you see that as another disruption for the industry that is the fact that it's moving to be more consumer focused? Is that anything we should be worried about in that space? >> Well I think the incumbents are going to lose their position. So I think in any new shift, new brands come in out of nowhere. >> For sure. >> And it's the people that you don't think about. It's the company that's not, that you don't see. And we got DR on the main stage right here, look at this. You saw her walk out with the confidence of a pro. She just walked out there and she's not afraid. >> No. Well, as she said in her video, she is ready to wake them up and you can see as soon as she worked out. That is what she intends to do. >> I love her mojo, she's got a lot of energy. And back to the show, I mean, she's just an example of what I was saying. Like in every market shift, a new brand emerges. >> Yep. >> I mean, even when apple was tainted, they were about to shut down, they were going to run out of cash. When Steve Jobs brought back apple, he consolidated and rebooted the company. The iPad was a similar moment, then the iPhone and just the rest is history. That kind of disruption's coming. You're going to see that here. >> Yeah. Oh, it's exciting though isn't it? To be future ready rather than future proof but actually I wanted to ask you something as well, because we are seeing all these cloud players getting hot under the collar about telco. Why are they so excited? What's the buzz about why, as you're in MWS and Google Cloud? Why do they want to have a slice of the pie? >> Well, I think they're hot, hot and heavy on the fact that telco is a ripe opportunity and it used to be this boring, slow moving glacier. >> Okay. >> It's almost like global warming now. The icebergs are melting and it's going to just change and because of the edge, 5G is not a consumer wireless thing. It's not like a better phone, it's a commercial app opportunity cause it's high bandwidth. We've all been to concerts or football games or sporting events where a stadium is packed. Everyone gets bars on their wifi, but can't get out, can't upload their pictures on Instagram. Why? Because it's choking them in the network. That's where 5G solves the problem. It brings a lot of bandwidth and that's going to bring the edge to life and that's money. So when you got money and greed and power changing hands, it's every, it's on the table and the wheel's spinning, and it could be double zero, or it could be lucky seven. You don't know. >> Yeah, for sure. And that's certainly enough to get all the big players hot and bothered about getting involved. And I suppose it circles back to the fact that, DR is really leading the charge and they're probably thinking, okay, what's going on here? This is different, we want something new. You didn't know it's an open run or something that we've been talking about over the last day or so. We've had quite a few of us speakers over here constantly. I've mentioned open run. What is it all about John? Because why all the bars, if 5G is such a hot topic? Why are we getting excited about it? >> That's a great thing. 5G certainly is Google Drive the main trend for sure. OpenRent is essentially an answer to the fact that 5G is popular and they need more infrastructure. So open source, the Linux Foundation has been the driver for most of the open source software. So they're trying to bring software and open architectures to create more entrepreneurial activity around hardware and around infrastructure because we need more infrastructure. We need more antennas, we need more transceivers, we need more devices that could be open. So in order to do that, you got to open up the technology and you want to minimize the licensing and minimize a lot of these, you know, proprietary aspects. >> What if we look at, so on Wednesday, we've got a great keynote from Philippe Langlois, who is CEO and founder of P1 Security. And he's coming to talk to us about cybersecurity within the cloud and within telco. So you just mentioned that. Open mind, it's all about having open source, about having that space where we can share more efficiently and easy, more easily. What does that mean for security though? Is it a risk? >> I think that's going to increase the value of security and minimize the threats. Because open source, even though it's open, the more people that are working on it, the more secure it could be. So yes, it could be more open in sense that could be explored by hackers, but it can be open to also protect. And I think we've seen open source and cloud in particular be more secure because everyone said, "Cloud is not secure, open source is not secure." And as it turns out when the collective hive minds of developers work on things, it gets secure. >> And it is interesting, isn't it? Because we have seen that there has been an uptick in cyber security and threats. But actually I was speaking to some leaders in across various industries and particularly in tech. And they were saying, "Actually there's not been an uptick in attempted threats, there's been an uptick because with this open source environment. We are able to track them and measure them and defend more efficiently. So actually they're being battered away, but the number is probably the same as it always was. We just didn't know about them before we had this open source environment. >> There's more money in threats and there's more surface area. So as the tide rises, so do the threats. So on a net basis it's more because there's more volume, but it's pretty much the same. And look at it, there's money involved, they're organized, there's a business model on attacking and getting the cash out of your bank or ransomwares at an all time high. So this is like a big problem and it's beyond the government, it's our individual freedom. So security its huge and I think open source and cloud are going to be, I think the answer to that. >> Yeah, for sure. And it's again about collaboration, isn't it? Which we talk about all the time but without collaboration that the industries aren't going to have to work together to promote this environment. So yeah, it should be good to talk with Phillip on Wednesday. >> I just say in security, don't download that PDF if you don't know who came from. The fishing is always good. Well, we got some great stuff coming up. We're going to have a great day. We got a video here on Mobile World Live, we're going to show this next segment and we're going to toss it to a video. And this is really about to give the experience Chloe, for people who aren't here, right? >> Yeah. >> To get a feel for what's going on in Barcelona and all the actions. And if you look at the video, enjoy it. >> Hi, I'm Danielle Royston, CEO and founder of TelcoDr, but you can call me DR. Ready for some more straight talk about telco? It's go time, let's do it. Holy shit. It sure is a great time to be a tech company. I mean, if you're Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Grab, Twilio, DoorDash or Uber, life's pretty great. Just look at these stock prices over the past five years with their shareholder value going up into the right. Totally amazing. But where's telco? There I add our stocks to this awesome chart. Let's compare these fabulous tech stocks to AT&T, Vodafone, Telefonica, Tim, America Movil and Zain group. Huh, not so great, right? Yep. I'm talking directly to you senior telco execs. I'm here to wake you up. Why is it that Wall Street doesn't see you as tech? Why aren't CSPs seen as driving all the tech change? Why is it always Apple, Amazon and Google who get the big buzz? But more importantly, why isn't it you? Before I came to this industry, I always thought of carriers as tech companies. I gave more of my money to AT&T and to Apple because I really cared about the quality of the network. But I also wondered why on earth, the carriers allowed all the other tech companies to take center stage. After spending the last few years in telco, I now understand why. It's because you are network people, you are not customer people. I get it, you have the security blanket, you're a network oligopoly. It's crazy expensive to build a network and it's expensive to buy spectrum. It takes operational chops to run a killer network and it takes great skill to convince Wall Street, to finance all of it. You telco execs are amazing at all those things, but because you focus on the network, it means you don't focus on the customer. And so far you haven't had to. Every telco's KPI is to be less shitty than their next competitor. You don't have to be the best, just don't be last. Everyone else's NPS, is in the thirties too. Their mobile app ratings are just as terrible as yours. Everyone's sucks at customer sat and it's widely acknowledged and accepted. Let's talk about the cost of that. The cost is not measured on market share against other MNOs. The cost is measured in lost ARPU that the tech guys are getting. Everyone knows about the loss of texting, to WeChat, WhatsApp and the other OTT apps, but it is not just texting. The total adjustable market or term of the mobile app disruptors is huge. Instead of remaining network focused, you should be leveraging your network into a premier position. And because you're a network people, I bet you think I'm talking about coercive network leverage. That is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about love, customer love. There is one thing the highly valued tech companies all have in common. They all crush it on customer love. They look at every interaction with the customer and say, "How do we make the customer love this?" Like Netflix has easy monthly cancellation, Amazon does no questions asked returns, Uber gives users a real time view into driver rating and availability. Compare those ideas to the standard telco customer interaction. The highly valued tech companies, don't have the network oligopoly to fall back on like you do. To survive they must make customers love them. So they focus on it in a big way and it pays off. Their NPS is close to 70 and they have app ratings of 4.5 or higher. A far cry from your thirties NPS and app ratings of 3.5. If you want to have those huge tech multiples for yourself, you have to start thinking about these guys as your new competition, not the other telcos in your market. The crazy thing is, if you give up using your network as a crutch and put all of your focus on the customer, the network becomes an asset worth more than all the super apps. Let's step back and talk about the value of super apps and becoming customer centric. Retooling around the customer is a huge change. So let's make sure it's worth it. We aren't talking about 25% improvement. I'm going to show you that if you become customer centric, you can double your ARPU, double your valuation multiples and drive big shareholder value just like the tech companies on that chart. Now let's talk about the customer focused super apps. There are hundreds of companies and a variety of categories vying for your subscriber's disposable income. Movies, food delivery, financial services, who are they? And why does Wall Street give them such high evaluations and like them so much? Well first, look at what they are telling Wall Street about their TAM. They broadcast ridiculously huge TAMs that are greater than the telco TAMs. You know, who should have a ridiculously huge TAM? You. Hello. What I'm saying is that if you got what's yours, you double in size. And if you take the TAAMs they throw around, you'll be five times as big. When I think about the opportunity to double ARPU, without having to double the CapEx, to build out the network, I say to myself, "Hell yeah, we should totally go do it and do whatever it takes to go get." For example, let's talk about Grab. Grab is a southeast Asian super app company with an expected $40 billion valuation. Grab's customer focused started in rideshare, but then leverage its customer love into wallet deliveries, hospitality, and investing. Their ARPU is now larger than a telco's ARPU in countries where they compete, and they have a higher valuation than those telcos too. Imagine if you could combine a great user experience with a valuable services that helped grow your ARPU, that would be huge. So how do you build a super app? I bet right about now, you're wishing you had a super app. Everyone wants a super app. A lot of money has been unsuccessfully spent by telcos trying to build their own. I bet you're saying to yourself, "DR, your pie in the sky sounds great but it has no chance of success." Well, I'm betting things are about to change. There is a public cloud startup called Totogi that is going to help carriers build world class super apps. To have a successful super app, there is one key metric you need to know. It is the KPI that determines if your super app will be a success or a flop. It's not about the daily active users, it's not the average order value, it's not even gross merchandise value. It's all about the frequency of use per day by the user, that's the metric that matters. How many of you use that metric in your telco apps? Do you have a team driving up user app interactions every day? Most telco apps are used for top up or to check a bill. This is a huge missed opportunity. Super app companies excel at building great experiences and driving a huge amount of interactions. They have to, their business depends on it. They have to be customer focused. They have to keep bringing the user back to the app, every day, multiple times a day. And you know what? They do a great job. Customers love their super apps. They have great user experiences like Apple credit cards, no information required, application process. They have high net promoter scores because of customer friendly policies, like how DoorDash retroactively credits fees when you move to a better plan. And they have great app store ratings because they do simple things like remember your last order, or allow you to use the app rather than force you to call customer service. Customers of successful super apps love it when new services are added. And because of the customer love, every time something is added to the app, customers adopt it immediately. New services drive frequent daily user interactions. So our problem in telco is we have an app that is only open once per month, not multiple times per day. And without frequent opens, there is no super app. What do we do we have in telco that we could use to help with this problem? I wonder, why you don't currently have a mobile app that subscribers use multiple times a day. You have something that's 10 times better. You have a network. Subscribers already interact with your network 10 times more frequently than any user with any of the super apps. But telcos don't leverage those interactions into the insanely valuable engagements they could be. Worse, even if you wanted to your crappy over customized on premise solutions, make it impossible. Thankfully, there's this new tech that's come around, you may have heard of it. The public cloud. When you bring the enabling technology of the public cloud, you can turn your network interactions into valuable super app interactions. And there's a special new startup that's going to help you do it, Totogi. Totogi will leverage all those network interactions and turn them into valuable customer interactions. Let me repeat that. Totogi will leverage all those network interactions and turn them into valuable customer interactions. Totogi allows the carrier to leverage its network and all the network interactions into customer engagement. This is something the super apps don't have but will wish they did. But this magic technology is not enough. Telcos also need to move from being network focus to being customer focused. Totogi enables telcos to chase exciting revenue growth without that annoying massive CapEx investment. Totogi is going to help you transform your sucky mobile apps with the crappy customer ratings, into something your subscribers want to open multiple times a day and become a platform for growth. I'm so excited about Totogi, I'm investing $100 million into it. You heard me right, $100 million. Is this what it feels like to be soft bank? I'm investing in Totogi because it's going to enable telcos to leverage the network interactions into super app usage. Which will lead to an improved subscriber experience and will give you a massive jump in your ARPU. And once you do that, all those Telco valuations will go from down here to up here. And so I've been talking to some folks, you know, checking in, feeling them out, getting their thoughts, and I've been asking them, what do you think about telcos building super apps? And the response has been, click, everyone says, "No way, telcos can't do it." Zero chance, total goose egg. One suggested I build a bonfire with 100 million dollars, because then at least I wouldn't waste years of my life. Well I think those people are dead wrong. I do believe that telcos can build super apps and make them super successful. The public cloud is changing all parts of telco and Totogi and super apps are fundamentally changing, the customer relationships. In one month at MWC, people will see what Totogi has to offer, and they will understand why I'm making this bold call. Because the Totogi takes the value of the network and the power of the public cloud to help telcos move from being network centric, to being customer centric. Boom! If you want to make this transformation and reap all the financial benefits, you will have to compete for customers with a whole new set of players. You will no longer compete with the network focus guys like the other telcos, instead you will be competing against the customer focused companies. These players don't have a network to fall back on like your old competitors. They know they have to make customers love them. Their customer loyalty is so off the charts, their customers are called fans. So if you want that big money, you will have to compete on their turf and make the customers want to choose you, you need Apple level loyalty. That bar is uber high. We will have to give up the security blanket of the network and change. Instead of NPS of the thirties, it needs to be in the 70s. Instead of mobile app ratings in the threes, they need to get five stars. I'm betting big that Totogi will make that possible. I'm going to help you every step of the way, starting with my keynote next month at MWC. Join me and I'll share the secrets to converting your super valuable network interactions to make your super app a massive success. We're going to have an amazing time and I can't wait to see you there. >> Okay. We're back here in theCUBE here at Mobile World Congress in Cloud City. I'm John Furrier, Chloe Richardson filling it for Dave Vellante who's out on assignment. He's out getting all the data out there and getting stories. Chloe, what a great keynote by Danielle Royston. We just heard her and while with major action, major pump me up, punch in the face, wake the heck up cloud people, cloud is here. She didn't pull any punches. >> No, I mean the thing is John, there's trillions of dollars on the table and everyone seems to be fighting for it. >> And you heard her up there, if you're not on the public cloud, you're not going to get access to that money. It's a free for all. And I think the cloud people are like, they might think they're going to walk right in and the telco industry is going to just give it up. >> No, of course. >> There's not going to be, it's going to be a fight, who will win. >> Who will win but also who will build the next big thing? >> Someone needs to die in the media conversation, it's always a fight, something's dead, something's dead but keeps the living. All that kidding aside, this is really about partnering. I think what's happened is, telco's already acknowledged that they need to change in the 5G edge conversation, the chip acceleration. Look at Apple, they've got their own processors, Nvidia, Amazon makes their own chips, Intel's pumping stuff out, you've got Qualcomm, you've got all these new things. So the chips are getting faster and the software's more open source and I'm telling you, cloud is just going to drive that bus right down clouds street and it's going to be in Cloud City everywhere. >> And it's going to be peeping on the board as it drives down. John, I'm not a stalker, but I have read some of the things that you've written. And one of the things you mentioned that was really interesting was the difference between building and operating. Break it down for me. What does that mean? >> That means basically in mature markets and growing markets things behave differently and certainly economics and the people and the makeup and the mindset. >> Okay. >> So the telco has been kind of this mature market. It's been changing and growing but not like radically. Cost optimization, make profit, you know, install a lot of cable. You got to get the rents out of that infrastructure and that's kind of gone on for too long. Cloud is a growth market, and it's about building, not just operating and you've got operators, carriers are operating networks. So you're going to see the convergence of operators and builders coming together, builders being software developers, new technology and executives that think about building. And you want people on your team that are going to be, I won't say war time, you know, lieutenants or generals, but people who can handle the pace of change. >> Okay. >> Because the change and the nature is different. And some people want slow and steady, keep the boat from rocking, but in a growth market, it's turbulent and ride might not be quiet, first class ticket to paradise, but it's bumpy, but it's thrilling. >> No, of course. Is it similar to the old sales adage of hunter versus farmer and the parallels? >> Yeah. I mean, the mindset. If you have a team of people that aren't knocking down new opportunities and building the next big thing, fixing your house, get your house in order, you know, refactor, reset, reboot, re platform with the cloud and then refactor your business. If you don't have the people thinking like that, you're probably either going to be taken over or go out of business. And that's what the telco with all these assets, they're going to get bought roll into a SPAC, special purpose acquisition company was a super hot in the United States. A lot of roll ups going on with Private equity. So a lot of these telcos, if they don't refactor or re platform, then refactor, they're going to be toast and they're going to get rolled up and eaten up by somebody else. >> Yeah, sure. It's interesting though, isn't it? Because when we think of telco in tech, we often think of, obviously we've got the triad. People process technology, and we think process and technology really take the forefront here but like you said there, people are also so important because if you don't have this right balance, you're not going to be able to drive that change. We had, obviously Scott Brighton on the stage yesterday and after his session, somebody came up to me and just said, "I'm interested to hear what that means for education." So how can we establish this new generation of tech and telco leaders from the grassroots with educational associations establishments? How can we encourage that? I wonder, is this something that you talk about often? >> Yeah. I mean, education is huge and this highlights the change that telcos now part of. Telco used to be a boring industry that ran the networks, or moving packets around and mobile was there, but once the iPhone came out in 2007, the life has changed, society has changed, education's changed, how people interact has changed. So you start to see people now aware of the value and if you look at the, during the COVID, the internet didn't crash, the telcos actually saved our asses and everyone was, survive because the network didn't break. Yeah, we had some bad zoom meetings here and there and some teleconferences that didn't go well but for the most part we survived and they really saved everybody, my goodness. So they should get kudos for that. But now they're dependent upon healthcare, education, people care about that stuff. So now you're going to start to see an elevated focus on what telecom is doing. That's why The Edge has checked trillions of dollars up for grabs. But education, there's negative unemployment in cybersecurity and in cloud. So for the people who say, oh, there's no jobs or I can't work, that's a bunch of BS because you can just get online, get on YouTube and just get a degree. You can get a degree, you can get an Amazon job, it pays a hundred thousand dollars a year, American. You can make a hundred thousand pounds and be unemployed six months and then be employed. So negative unemployment means there's more jobs than people to fill them qualify. >> Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned that because I was talking to a cyber security leader who was saying in some of the things there were now 3 million vacancies in cybersecurity and there's such a skill shortage, there is nobody around to fill it. So it's an interesting problem to have isn't it? Cause it's reversed to what we've been used to for the last few decades and obviously telco is in the same space. What can we do about it? Do you think it will actually bring people in? >> I think it's going to take leadership and I'm a big proponent of kids not going to university, they don't have to. Why spend the dough, money if you don't have to? You can get online. I mean, the data's there, but to me it's the relationships, the mentorship. You starting to see women in tech and underrepresented minorities in the tech field, where mentorship is more important than curriculum. Community is more important than just going through a linear course where nobody wants to sit online and go through linear courseware. Now, if they have to get a certificate or degree and accreditation no problem, but communities are out there. So that's a big change over, I'm a big fan of that and I think people should, you know, get some specialized skills, you can get that online. So why even go to school? So people are figuring that out. >> For sure. And also even transferring, I mean, so many skills are transferable nowadays, aren't there? So we could easily be talking to people from other industries and bringing them into telco and saying, look, bring what you know from your retail background or your healthcare background and help us at telco to again, drive forward, just like DR is saying it's all about the next big thing. >> Danielle, I was also driving a lot of change and if you think about the jobs and a pedigree of going to a university, oh, Harvard, all the big Ivy leagues, Oxford in your area. So it's like, if you go to a school like that and you get a pedigree, you instantly get a job. Now, the jobs that are available, weren't around five years ago. So there's no like pedigree or track record, there's no like, everyone's equal. >> Yeah. >> So you could, the democratization of the internet now is, from a job standpoint is, people are leveling up faster. So it's not about the Ivy league or the big degree or silver spoon in your mouth, you've got the entitlement. So you start to see people emergent and make things happen, entrepreneurship in America, immigrant entrepreneurship. People are billionaires that have no high school diplomas. >> It's interesting you mentioned that John, because we can have more than five years experience in this space, we know that but in telco there is a problem and maybe it's, again it's a flipped problem where, telco recruiters or talent acquisition leaders, are now asking for kind of 10, 20 years experience when they're sending out job descriptions. So does that mean that we are at fault for not being able to fill all these vacancies? >> Well, I mean, I think that's just, I mean, I think there's a transition of the new skill set happening one, but two, I think, you know, you've got to be like a chip engineer, you can't learn that online, but if you want to run a cloud infrastructure, you can. But I think embedded systems is an area that I was talking to an engineer, there's a huge shortage of engineers who code on the microprocessors, on the chips. So embedded systems is a big career. So there's definitely parts, you can specialize, space is another area you've seen a lot of activity on, obviously Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk is going to be here on virtual keynote, trying to go to Mars. And, you know, Danielle Royston always says, who's going to happen first, Mars, colony, or telco adopting public cloud? Some people think Mars will happen first but. >> What do you think John? >> I think telco's going to get cloud. I mean, first of all, public cloud is now hybrid cloud and the edge, this whole internet edge, 5G, is so symbolic and so important because it's an architectural beachhead. >> Yeah. >> And that's where the trillion dollar baby is. >> Of course. >> So the inside baseball and the inside money and all the investors are focusing on the edge because whoever can command the edge, wins all the dollars. So everyone kind of knows it's a public secret and it's fun to watch, everyone jockey for the positions. >> Yeah, know, it really is. But it's also quite funny, isn't it? Because the edge is almost where we were decades ago, but we're putting the control back in the hands of consumers. So it's an interesting flip and I wonder if with the edge, we can really enhance this acceleration of product development its efficiency, this frictionless system in which we live in. And also, I've heard you say hybrid a few times John. >> Yeah. >> Is hybrid going to be the future of the world no matter what industry you're in? >> Hybrid is everything now. So it's, we're the hybrid cube, we've got hybrid cloud. >> Exactly. >> You got hybrid telco, because now you've got the confluence of online and offline coming together. >> Yeah. >> That is critical dynamic, and you seeing it. Like virtual reality for instance, now you seeing things, I know you guys are doing some great work at your company around creating experiences that are virtual. >> Exactly. >> You got, like Roblox went public recently. >> Yeah. >> Metaverse is a good time to be in that business because experiential human relations are coming. So I think that's going to be powered by 5G, you know, gamers. So all good stuff, Chloe, great to be with you here in theCUBE. >> Thank you. >> And we're looking forward to seeing your main stage. >> Great. >> And then we're going to send it back to the studio, Adam and the team, we're waiting for DR to arrive here in Cloud City and this is theCUBE, from Cloud City back to you, Adam in the studio.

>>Welcome back to HPD discovered 2021. The virtual edition. My name is Dave Volonte and you're watching the cubes continuous coverage of H. P. S. Big customer event. Patrick Moorehead is here of moor insights and strategy is the number one analyst in the research analyst. Business. Patrick. Always a pleasure. Great to see you, >>David. Great to see you too. And I know you're you're up there fighting for that number one spot to. It's great to see you and it's great to see you in the meetings that were in. But it's even more fun to be here on the cube. I love to be on the cube and every once in a while you'll even call me a friend of the cube, >>unquestionably my friend and so and I can't wait second half. I mean you're traveling right now. We're headed to Barcelona to mobile World Congress later on this month. So so we're gonna we're gonna see each other face to face this year. 100%. So looking forward to that. So, you know, let's get into it. Um you know, before we get into H. P. E. Let's talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the market. We've got, you know, we we we finally, it feels like the on prem guys are finally getting their cloud act together. Um, it's maybe taken a while, but we're seeing as a service models emerge. I think it's resonating with customers. The clearly not everything is moving to the cloud. There's this hybrid model emerging. Multi cloud is real despite what, you know, >>some some >>cloud players want to say. And then there's this edges like jump ball, what are you seeing in the marketplace? >>Yeah. Davis, as exciting as ever in. Just to put in perspective, I mean, the public cloud has been around for about 10 years and still only 20%. Around 20% of the data in 20% of the applications are there now, albeit very important ones. And I'm certainly not a public cloud denier, I never have been, but there are some missing pieces that need to come together. And you know, even five years ago we were debating dave the hybrid cloud and I feel like when Amazon brought out outposts, the conversation was over right now, what you have is cloud native folks building out hybrid and on prem capabilities, you have the classic on prem folks building out hybrid and as a service capabilities. And I really think it boils down 22 things. I mean it's wanting to have more flexibility and you know, I hate to use it because it sounds like a marketing word, but agility, the ability to spin up things and spin down things in a very quick way. And uh, you know what they've learned. The veterans also know, hey, let's do this in a way that doesn't lock us in too much into a certain vendor. And I've been around for a long time. David and I'm a realist too. Well, you have to lock yourself into something. It just depends on what do you want to lock yourself into, but super exciting. And what H. P. E. When they threw the acts in the sea with Green Lake, I think it was four years ago, I think really started to stir the pot. >>You know, you mentioned the term cloud denial, but you know, and I feel like the narrative from, I like to determine is I think you should use the term veteran. You know, it's very, they're ours is the only industry patrick where legacy is a pejorative, but but but so but the point I want to make is I feel like there's been a lot of sort of fear from the veteran players, but I look at it differently. I wonder what you're taking. I think, I think, I think I calculated that the Capex spending by the big four public clouds including Alibaba last year was $100 billion. That's like a gift to the world. Here, we're going to spend $100 billion like the internet here you go build. And and so I, and I feel like companies like HP are finally saying, yeah, we're gonna build, we're gonna build a layer and we're gonna hide the complexity and we're gonna add value on top. What do you think about that? >>Yeah. So I think it's now, I wish, I wish the on prem folks like HP, you would have done it 10 years ago, but I don't think anybody expected the cloud to be as big as it's become over the last 10 years. I think we saw companies like salesforce with sas taking off, but I think it is the right direction because there are advantages to having workloads on prem and if you add an as a service capability on top of the top of that, and let's say even do a Coehlo or a managed service, it's pretty close to being similar to the public cloud with the exception, that you can't necessarily swipe a credit card for a bespoke workload if you're a developer and it is a little harder to scale out. But that is the next step in the equation day, which is having, having these folks make capital expenditures, make them in a polo facility and then put a layer to swipe a credit card and you literally have the public cloud. >>Yeah. So that's, that's a great point and that's where it's headed, isn't it? Um, so let's, let's talk about the horses on the track. Hp. As you mentioned, I didn't realize it was four years ago. I thought it was, wow, That's amazing. So everybody's followed suit. You see, Dallas announced, Cisco has announced, uh, Lenovo was announced, I think IBM as well. So we, so everybody started following suit there. The reality is, is it's taken some time to get this stuff standardized. What are you seeing from, from HP? They've made some additional announcements, discover what's your take on all this. >>Yeah. So HPD was definitely the rabbit here and they were first in the market. It was good to see, first off some of their, Um, announcements on, on how it's going. And they talked about 4, $28 billion 1200 customers over 900 partners and 95% retention. And I think that's important anybody who's in the lead and remember what Aws used to do with the slide with the amount of customers would just get bigger and bigger and bigger and that's a good way to show momentum. I like the retention part two which is 95%. And I think that that says a lot uh probably the more important announcements that they made is they talked about the G. A. Of some of their solutions on Green Lake and whether it was S. A. P. Hana Ml apps HPC with Francis V. I was Citrus in video but they also brought more of what I would call a vertical layer and I'm sure you've seen the vertical ization of all of these cloud and as a service workloads. But what they're doing with Epic with EMR and looseness, with financial payments and Splunk and intel with data and risk analysis and finally, a full stack for telco five G. One of the biggest secrets and I covered this about five years ago is HPV actually has a full stack that western european carriers use and they're now extending that to five G. And um, so more horizontal uh and and more vertical. That was the one of the big swipes uh that I saw that there was a second though, but maybe we can talk about these. >>Yeah. Okay, Okay. So, so the other piece of that of course is standardization right there there because there was a, there was, there was a lot of customization leading up to this and everybody sort of, everybody always had some kind of financial game they can play and say, hey, there's an adversary as a service model, but this is definitely more of a standardized scalable move that H P E. Is making with what they call Lighthouse, Right? >>Yeah, that's exactly right. And I've talked to some Green Lake customers and they obviously gave it kudos or they wouldn't have HP wouldn't have served them up and they wouldn't have been buying it. But they did say, um, it took, it took a while, took some paperwork to get it going. It's not 100% of push button, but that's partially because hp allows you to customize the hardware. You want a one off network adapter. Hp says yes, right. You want to integrate a different type of storage? They said yes. But with Green Lake Lighthouse, it's more of a, what you see is what you get, which by the way is very much like the public cloud or you go to a public cloud product sheet or order sheet. You're picking from a list and you really don't know everything that's underneath the covers, aside from, let's say the speed of the network, the type of the storage and the amount of the storage you get. You do get to pick between, let's say, an intel processor, Graviton two or an M. D processor. You get to pick your own GPU. But that's pretty much it. And HP Lighthouse, sorry, Green Lake Lighthouse uh, is bringing, I think a simplification to Green Lake that it needs to truly scale beyond, let's say, the white house customers at HP. Yeah, >>Well done. So, you know, and I hear your point about 10 years in, you know, plus and to me this is like a mandate. I mean, this is okay. Good, good job guys about time. But if I had a, you know, sort of look at the big players, like, can we have an oligopoly here in this, in this business? It's HP, Cisco, you got Dell Lenovo, you've got, you know, IBM, they're all doing this and they all have a different little difference, you know, waste of skin of catch. And your point about simplicity, it seems like HP HP is all in Antonio's like, okay, here's what we're going to announce that, you know, while ago, so, and they seem to have done a good job with Wall Street and they get a simple model, you know, Dell's obviously bigger portfolio, much more complicated. IBM is even more complicated than that. I don't know so much about Lenovo and in Cisco of course, has acquired a ton of SAAS companies and sort of they've got a lot of bespoke products that they're trying to put together, so they've got, but they do have SAS models. So each of them is coming at it from a different perspective. How do you think? And so and the other point we got lighthouse, which is sort of Phase one, get product market fit. Phase two now is scale codify standardized and then phase three is the moat build your unique advantage that protects your business. What do you see as HP? Es sort of unique value proposition and moat that they can build longer term. >>That's a great, great question. And let me rattle off kind of what I'm seeing that some of these these players here. So Cisco, ironically, has sells the most software of any of those players that you mentioned, uh with the exception of IBM. Um, and yeah, C >>ICSDB two. Yeah, >>yeah, they're the they're the number two security player, uh, Microsoft, number one. So and I think the evaluation on the street uh indicate that shows that I feel like uh Deltek is a is a very broad play because not only do they have servers, storage, networking and security, but they also have Pcs and devices, so it's a it's a scale and end play with a focus on VM ware solutions, not exclusively, of course. Uh And um then you've got Lenovo who is just getting into the as a service game and are gosh, they're doing great in hyper scale, they've got scale there vertically integrated. I don't know if if too many people talk about that, but Lenovo does a lot of their own manufacturing and they actually manufacture Netapp storage solutions as well. So yeah, each of these folks brings a different game to the table, I think with h P E, what your bring to the table is nimble. When HP and HP split, the number one thing that I said was that uh huh H P E is going to have to be so much faster than it offsets the scale that Dell technology has and the HBs credit, although there, I don't think we're getting credit for this in the stock market yet. Um, and I know you and I are both industry folks, not financial folks, but I think their biggest thing is speed and the ability to move faster and that is what I've seen as it relates to the moat, which is a unique uh, competitive advantage. Quite frankly, I'm still looking for that day in, in, in what that is and I think in this industry it's nearly impossible and I would posit that that any, even the cloud folks, if you say, is there something that AWS can do that Azure can't, if it put it put its mind to it or G C P. I don't think so. I think it's more of a kind of land and expand and I think for H P E, when it comes to high performance computing and I'm not just talking about government installations, I'm talking about product development, drug development, I think that is a landing place where H P E already does pretty well can come in and expand its footprint, >>you know, that's really interesting um, observations. So, and I would agree with you, it's kind of like, this is a copycat industry, it's like the west coast offense, like the NFL >>and >>so, so the moat comes from, you know, brand execution and your other point about when HP and HP split, that was a game changer, because all of a sudden you saw companies like them, you always had a long term relationship with H P E but or HP, but then they came out of the woodworks and started to explode. And so it really opened up opportunities. So it really >>is an execution, >>isn't it? But go ahead, please >>Dave if I had to pick something that I think HP HPV needs to always be ahead and as a service and listen, you know, I both know announcements don't mean delivery, but there is correlation between if you start four years ahead of somebody that other company is going to have to put just, I mean they're gonna have to turn that ship and many of its competitors really big ships to be able to get there. So I think what Antonio needs to do is run like hell, right, Because it, it, I think it is in the lead and as a service holistically doesn't mean they're going to be there forever, but they have to stay ahead. They have to add more horizontal solutions. They have to add more vertical solutions. And I believe that at some point it does need to invest in some Capex at somebody like ANna Quinn x play credit card swiper on top of that. And Dave, you have the public, you have the public cloud, you don't have all the availability zones, but you have a public cloud. >>Yeah, that's going to happen. I think you're right on. So we see this notion of cloud expanding. It's no longer just remote set of services. Somewhere out in the cloud. It's as you said, outpost was the sort of signal. Okay, We're coming on prem clearly the on prem, uh, guys are connecting to the cloud. Multi cloud exists, we know this and then there's the edge but but but that brings me to that sort of vision and everybody's laying out of this this this seamless integration hiding the complexity log into my cloud and then life will be good. But the edge is different. Right? It's not just, you know, retail store or a race track. I mean there's the far edge, there's the Tesla car, there's gonna be compute everywhere. And that sort of ties into the data. The data flows, you know the real time influencing at the edge ai new semiconductor models. You you came out of the semiconductor industry, you know it inside and out arm is exploding is dominating in the edge with with with apple and amazon Alexa and things like that. That's really where the action is. So this is a really interesting cocktail and soup that we have going on. How do you >>say? Well, you know, Dave if the data most data, I think one thing most everybody agrees on is that most of the data will be created on the edge. Whether that's a moving edge a car, a smartphone or what I call an edge data center without tile flooring. Like that server that's bolted to the wall of Mcdonald's. When you drive through, you can see it versus the walmart. Every walmart has a raised tile floor. It's the edge to economically and performance wise, it doesn't make any sense to send all that data to the mother ships. Okay. And whether that's unproven data center or the giant public cloud, more efficient way is to do the compute at the closest way possible. But what it does, it does bring up challenges. The first challenge is security. If I wanted to, I could walk in and I could take that server off the Mcdonald's or the Shell gas station wall. So I can't do that in a big data center. Okay, so security, Physical security is a challenge. The second is you don't have the people to go in there and fix stuff that are qualified. If you have a networking problem that goes wrong and Mcdonald's, there's nobody there that can help uh, they can they can help you fix that. So this notion of autonomy and management and not keeping hyper critical data sitting out there and it becomes it becomes a security issue becomes a management issue. Let me talk about the benefits though. The benefits are lower latency. You want you want answers more quickly when that car is driving down the road and it has a five G V two X communication cameras can't see around corners, but that car communicating ahead, that ran into the stop sign, can I through vi to X. Talk to the car behind it and say, hey, something is going on there, you can't go to, you can't go to the big data center in the sky to make that happen, that is to be in near real time and that computer has to happen on the edge. So I think this is a tremendous opportunity and ironically the classic on prem guys, they own this, they own this space aside from smartphones of course, but if you look at compute on a light pole, companies like Intel have built Complete architectures to do that, putting compute into 5G base stations. Heck, I just, there was an announcement this week of google cloud in its gaming solution putting compute in a carrier edge to give lower latency to deliver a better experience. >>Yeah, so there, of course there is no one edge, it's highly fragmented, but I'm interested in your thoughts on kind of who's stack actually can play at the edge. And I've been sort of poking uh H P E about this. And the one thing that comes back consistently is Aruba, we we can take a room but not only to the, to the near edge, but to the far edge. And and that, do you see that as a competitive advantage? >>Oh gosh, yes. I mean, I would say the best acquisition That hp has made in 10 years has been aruba it's fantastic. And they also managed it in the right way. I mean, it was part of HB but it was it was managed a lot more loosely then, you know, a company that might get sucked into the board. And I think that paid off tremendously. They're giving Cisco on the edge a absolute run for their money, their first with new technologies. But it's about the solution. What I love about what a ruble looks at is it's looking at entertainment solutions inside of a stadium, um a information solution inside of an airport as opposed to just pushing the technology forward. And then when you integrate compute with with with Aruba, I think that's where the real magic happens. Most of the data on a permanent basis is actually video data. And a lot of it's for security uh for surveillance. And quite frankly, people taking videos off, they're off their smartphones and downloading video. I I just interviewed the chief network officer of T mobile and their number one bit of data is video, video uploaded, video download. But that's where the magic happens when you put that connectivity and the compute together and you can manage it in a, in an orderly and secure fashion >>while I have you, we have a ton of time here, but I I don't pick your brain about intel, the future of intel. I know you've been following it quite closely, you always have Intel's fighting a forefront war. You got there, battling A. M. D. There, battling your arm slash and video. They're they're taking on TSMC now and in foundry and, and I'll add china for the looming threat there. So what's your prognosis for for intel? >>Yeah, I liked bob the previous Ceo and I think he was doing a lot of of the right things, but I really think that customers and investors and even their ecosystem wanted somebody leading the company with a high degree of technical aptitude and Pat coming, I mean, Pat had a great job at VM or, I mean, he had a great run there and I think it is a very positive move. I've never seen the energy At Intel probably in the last 10 years that I've seen today. I actually got a chance to talk with pat. I visited pat uhh last month and and talk to him about pretty much everything and where he wanted to take the company the way you looked at technology, what was important, what's not important. But I think first off in the world of semiconductors, there are no quick fixes. Okay. Intel has a another two years Before we see what the results are. And I think 2023 for them is gonna be a huge year. But even with all this competition though, Dave they still have close to 85% market share in servers and revenue share for client computing around 90%. Okay. So and they've built out there networking business, they build out a storage business um with with obtain they have the leading Aid as provider with Mobileye. And and listen I was I was one of Intel's biggest, I was into one of Intel's biggest, I was Intel's biggest customer when I was a compact. I was their biggest competitor at AMG. So um I'm not obviously not overly pushing or there's just got to wait and see. They're doing the right things. They have the right strategy. They need to execute. One of the most important things That Intel did is extend their alliance with TSMC. So in 2023 we're going to see Intel compute units these tiles, they integrate into the larger chips called S. O. C S B. Manufactured by TSMC. Not exclusively, but we could see that. So literally we could have AMG three nanometer on TSMC CPU blocks, competing with intel chips with TSMC three nanometer CPU blocks and it's on with regard to video. I mean in video is one of these companies that just keeps going charging, charging hard and I'm actually meeting with Jensen wang this week and Arms Ceo Simon Segers to talk about this opportunity and that's a company that keeps on moving interestingly enough in video. If the arm deal does go through will be the largest chip license, see CPU licensee and have the largest CPU footprint on the planet. So here we have AMG who's CPU and Gpu and buying an F. P. G. A company called Xilinx, you have Intel, Cpus, Gpus machine learning accelerators and F. P. G. S. And then you've got arms slashing video bit with everything as well. We have three massive ecosystems. They're gonna be colliding here and I think it's gonna be great for competition. Date. Competition is great. You know, when there's not competition in CPUs and Gpus, we know what happens right. Uh, the beach just does not go on and we start to stagnate. And I did, I do feel like the industry on CPU started to stagnate when intel had no competition. So bring it on. This is gonna be great for for enterprises then customers to and then, oh, by the way, you have the custom Chip providers. WS has created no less than 15 custom semiconductors started with networking and nitro and building out an edge that surrounded the general computer. And then it moved to Inferential for inference trainee um, is about to come out for training Graviton and Gravitas to for general purpose CPU and then you've got apple. So innovation is huge and I love to always make fun of the software is eating the world. I always say yeah but has to run on something. And so I think the combination of semiconductors software and cloud is just really a magical combination. >>Real quick handicap the video arm acquisition. What what are the odds that that they will be successful? They say it's on track. You got a 2 to 13 to 1 10 to 1. >>I say 75%. Yes 25%. No China is always the has been the odd odd man out for the last three years. They scuttled the Qualcomm NXp deal. You just don't know what china is going to do. I think the EU with some conditions is going to let this fly. I think the U. S. Is absolutely going to let this fly. And even though the I. P. Will still stay over in the UK, I think the U. S. Wants to see wants to see this happen, Japan and Korea I think we'll allow this china is the odd man out. >>In a word, the future of h p. E is blank >>as a service >>patrick Moorehead. Always a pleasure. My friend. Great to see you. Thanks so much for coming back in the cube. >>Yeah, Thanks for having me on. I appreciate that. >>Everybody stay tuned for more great coverage from HP discover 21 this is day Volonte for the cube. The leader and enterprise tech coverage. We'll be right back.

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Braking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Intel's big announcement this week underscores the threat that the United States faces from China. The US needs to lead in semiconductor design and manufacturing. And that lead is slipping because Intel has been fumbling the ball over the past several years, a mere two months into the job, new CEO Pat Gelsinger wasted no time in setting a new course for perhaps, the most strategically important American technology company. We believe that Gelsinger has only shown us part of his plan. This is the beginning of a long and highly complex journey. Despite Gelsinger's clear vision, his deep understanding of technology and execution ethos, in order to regain its number one position, Intel we believe we'll need to have help from partners, competitors and very importantly, the US government. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis we'll peel the onion Intel's announcement of this week and explain why we're perhaps not as sanguine as was Wall Street on Intel's prospects. And we'll lay out what we think needs to take place for Intel to once again, become top gun and for us to gain more confidence. By the way this is the first time we're broadcasting live with Braking Analysis. We're broadcasting on the CUBE handles on Twitch, Periscope and YouTube and going forward we'll do this regularly as a live program and we'll bring in the community perspective into the conversation through chat. Now you may recall that in January, we kind of dismissed analysis that said Intel didn't have to make any major strategic changes to its business when they brought on Pat Gelsinger. Rather we said the exact opposite. Our view at time was that the root of Intel's problems could be traced to the fact that it wasn't no longer the volume leader. Because mobile volumes dwarf those of x86. As such we said that Intel couldn't go up the learning curve for next gen technologies as fast as its competitors and it needed to shed its dogma of being highly vertically integrated. We said Intel needed to more heavily leverage outsourced foundries. But more specifically, we suggested that in order for Intel to regain its volume lead, it needed to, we said at the time, spin out its manufacturing, create a joint venture sure with a volume leader, leveraging Intel's US manufacturing presence. This, we still believe with some slight refreshes to our thinking based on what Gelsinger has announced. And we'll talk about that today. Now specifically there were three main pieces and a lot of details to Intel's announcement. Gelsinger made it clear that Intel is not giving up its IDM or integrated device manufacturing ethos. He called this IDM 2.0, which comprises Intel's internal manufacturing, leveraging external Foundries and creating a new business unit called Intel Foundry Services. It's okay. Gelsinger said, "We are not giving up on integrated manufacturing." However, we think this is somewhat nuanced. Clearly Intel can't, won't and shouldn't give up on IDM. However, we believe Intel is entering a new era where it's giving designers more choice. This was not explicitly stated. However we feel like Intel's internal manufacturing arm will have increased pressure to serve its designers in a more competitive manner. We've already seen this with Intel finally embracing EUV or extreme ultraviolet lithography. Gelsinger basically said that Intel didn't lean into EUV early on and that it created more complexity in its 10 nanometer process, which dominoed into seven nanometer and as you know the rest of the story and Intel's delays. But since mid last year, it's embraced the technology. Now as a point of reference, Samsung started applying EUV for its seven nanometer technology in 2018. And it began shipping in early 2020. So as you can see, it takes years to get this technology into volume production. The point is that Intel realizes it needs to be more competitive. And we suspect, it will give more freedom to designers to leverage outsource manufacturing. But Gelsinger clearly signaled that IDM is not going away. But the really big news is that Intel is setting up a new division with a separate PNL that's going to report directly to Pat. Essentially it's hanging out a shingle and saying, we're open for business to make your chips. Intel is building two new Fabs in Arizona and investing $20 billion as part of this initiative. Now well Intel has tried this before earlier last decade. Gelsinger says that this time we're serious and we're going to do it right. We'll come back to that. This organizational move while not a spin out or a joint venture, it's part of the recipe that we saw as necessary for Intel to be more competitive. Let's talk about why Intel is doing this. Look at lots has changed in the world of semiconductors. When you think about it back when Pat was at Intel in the '90s, Intel was the volume leader. It crushed the competition with x86. And the competition at the time was coming from risk chips. And when Apple changed the game with iPod and iPhone and iPad, the volume equation flipped to mobile. And that led to big changes in the industry. Specifically, the world started to separate design from manufacturing. We now see firms going from design to tape out in 12 months versus taking three years. A good example is Tesla and his deal with ARM and Samsung. And what's happened is Intel has gone from number one in Foundry in terms of clock speed, wafer density, volume, lowest cost, highest margin to falling behind. TSMC, Samsung and alternative processor competitors like NVIDIA. Volume is still the maker of kings in this business. That hasn't changed and it confers advantage in terms of cost, speed and efficiency. But ARM wafer volumes, we estimate are 10x those of x86. That's a big change since Pat left Intel more than a decade ago. There's also a major chip shortage today. But you know this time, it feels a little different than the typical semiconductor boom and bust cycles. Semiconductor consumption is entering a new era and new use cases emerging from automobiles to factories, to every imaginable device piece of equipment, infrastructure, silicon is everywhere. But the biggest threat of all is China. China wants to be self-sufficient in semiconductors by 2025. It's putting approximately $60 billion into new chip Fabs, and there's more to come. China wants to be the new economic leader of the world and semiconductors are critical to that goal. Now there are those poopoo the China threat. This recent article from Scott Foster lays out some really good information. But the one thing that caught our attention is a statement that China's semiconductor industry is nowhere near being a major competitor in the global market. Let alone an existential threat to the international order and the American way of life. I think Scotty is stuck in the engine room and can't see the forest of the trees, wake up. Sure. You can say China is way behind. Let's take an example. NAND. Today China is at about 64 3D layers whereas Micron they're at 172. By 2022 China's going to be at 128. Micron, it's going to be well over 200. So what's the big deal? We say talk to us in 2025 because we think China will be at parody. That's just one example. Now the type of thinking that says don't worry about China and semi's reminds me of the epic lecture series that Clay Christiansen gave as a visiting professor at Oxford University on the history of, and the economics of the steel industry. Now if you haven't watched this series, you should. Basically Christiansen took the audience through the dynamics of steel production. And he asked the question, "Who told the steel manufacturers that gross margin was the number one measure of profitability? Was it God?" he joked. His point was, when new entrance came into the market in the '70s, they were bottom feeders going after the low margin, low quality, easiest to make rebar sector. And the incumbents nearly pulled back and their mix shifted to higher margin products and their gross margins went up and life was good. Until they lost the next layer. And then the next, and then the next, until it was game over. Now, one of the things that got lost in Pat's big announcement on the 23rd of March was that Intel guided the street below consensus on revenue and earnings. But the stock went up the next day. Now when asked about gross margin in the Q&A segment of the announcement, yes, gross margin is a if not the key metric in semi's in terms of measuring profitability. When asked Intel CFO George Davis explained that with the uptick in PCs last year there was a product shift to the lower margin PC sector and that put pressure on gross margins. It was a product mix thing. And revenue because PC chips are less expensive than server chips was affected as were margins. Now we shared this chart in our last Intel update showing, spending momentum over time for Dell's laptop business from ETR. And you can see in the inset, the unit growth and the market data from IDC, yes, Dell's laptop business is growing, everybody's laptop business is growing. Thank you COVID. But you see the numbers from IDC, Gartner, et cetera. Now, as we pointed out last time, PC volumes had peaked in 2011 and that's when the long arm of rights law began to eat into Intel's dominance. Today ARM wafer production as we said is far greater than Intel's and well, you know the story. Here's the irony, the very bucket that conferred volume adventures to Intel PCs, yes, it had a slight uptick last year, which was great news for Dell. But according to Intel it pulled down its margins. The point is Intel is loving the high end of the market because it's higher margin and more profitable. I wonder what Clay Christensen would say to that. Now there's more to this story. Intel's CFO blame the supply constraints on Intel's revenue and profit pressures yet AMD's revenue and profits are booming. So RTSMCs. Only Intel can't seem to thrive when there's this massive chip shortage. Now let's get back to Pat's announcement. Intel is for sure, going forward investing $20 billion in two new US-based fabrication facilities. This chart shows Intel's investments in US R&D, US CapEx and the job growth that's created as a result, as well as R&D and CapEx investments in Ireland and Israel. Now we added the bar on the right hand side from a Wall Street journal article that compares TSMC CapEx in the dark green to that of Intel and the light green. You can see TSMC surpass the CapEx investment of Intel in 2015, and then Intel took the lead back again. And in 2017 was, hey it on in 2018. But last year TSMC took the lead, again. And appears to be widening that lead quite substantially. Leading us to our conclusion that this will not be enough. These moves by Intel will not be enough. They need to do more. And a big part of this announcement was partnerships and packaging. Okay. So here's where it gets interesting. Intel, as you may know was late to the party with SOC system on a chip. And it's going to use its packaging prowess to try and leap frog the competition. SOC bundles things like GPU, NPU, DSUs, accelerators caches on a single chip. So better use the real estate if you will. Now Intel wants to build system on package which will dis-aggregate memory from compute. Now remember today, memory is very poorly utilized. What Intel is going to do is to create a package with literally thousands of nodes comprising small processors, big processors, alternative processors, ARM processors, custom Silicon all sharing a pool of memory. This is a huge innovation and we'll come back to this in a moment. Now as part of the announcement, Intel trotted out some big name customers, prospects and even competitors that it wants to turn into prospects and customers. Amazon, Google, Satya Nadella gave a quick talk from Microsoft to Cisco. All those guys are designing their own chips as does Ericsson and look even Qualcomm is on the list, a competitor. Intel wants to earn the right to make chips for these firms. Now many on the list like Microsoft and Google they'd be happy to do so because they want more competition. And Qualcomm, well look if Intel can do a good job and be a strong second sourced, why not? Well, one reason is they compete aggressively with Intel but we don't like Intel so much but it's very possible. But the two most important partners on this slide are one IBM and two, the US government. Now many people were going to gloss over IBM in this announcement, but we think it's one of the most important pieces of the puzzle. Yes. IBM and semiconductors. IBM actually has some of the best semiconductor technology in the world. It's got great architecture and is two to three years ahead of Intel with POWER10. Yes, POWER. IBM is the world's leader in terms of dis-aggregating compute from memory with the ability to scale to thousands of nodes, sound familiar? IBM leads in power density, efficiency and it can put more stuff closer together. And it's looking now at a 20x increase in AI inference performance. We think Pat has been thinking about this for a while and he said, how can I leave leap frog system on chip. And we think he thought and said, I'll use our outstanding process manufacturing and I'll tap IBM as a partner for R&D and architectural chips to build the next generation of systems that are more flexible and performant than anything that's out there. Now look, this is super high end stuff. And guess who needs really high end massive supercomputing capabilities? Well, the US military. Pat said straight up, "We've talked to the government and we're honored to be competing for the government/military chips boundary." I mean, look Intel in my view was going to have to fall down into face not win this business. And by making the commitment to Foundry Services we think they will get a huge contract from the government, as large, perhaps as $10 billion or more to build a secure government Foundry and serve the military for decades to come. Now Pat was specifically asked in the Q&A section is this Foundry strategy that you're embarking on viable without the help of the US government? Kind of implying that it was a handout or a bailout. And Pat of course said all the right things. He said, "This is the right thing for Intel. Independent of the government, we haven't received any commitment or subsidies or anything like that from the US government." Okay, cool. But they have had conversations and I have no doubt, and Pat confirmed this, that those conversations were very, very positive that Intel should head in this direction. Well, we know what's happening here. The US government wants Intel to win. It needs Intel to win and its participation greatly increases the probability of success. But unfortunately, we still don't think it's enough for Intel to regain its number one position. Let's look at that in a little bit more detail. The headwinds for Intel are many. Look it can't just flick a switch and catch up on manufacturing leadership. It's going to take four years. And lots can change in that time. It tells market momentum as well as we pointed out earlier is headed in the wrong direction from a financial perspective. Moreover, where is the volume going to come from? It's going to take years for Intel to catch up for ARMS if it never can. And it's going to have to fight to win that business from its current competitors. Now I have no doubt. It will fight hard under Pat's excellent leadership. But the Foundry business is different. Consider this, Intel's annual CapEx expenditures, if you divide that by their yearly revenue it comes out to about 20% of revenue. TSMC spends 50% of its revenue each year on CapEx. This is a different animal, very service oriented. So look, we're not pounding the table saying Intel's worst days are over. We don't think they are. Now, there are some positives, I'm showing those in the right-hand side. Pat Gelsinger was born for this job. He proved that the other day, even though we already knew it. I have never seen him more excited and more clearheaded. And we agreed that the chip demand dynamic is going to have legs in this decade and beyond with Digital, Edge, AI and new use cases that are going to power that demand. And Intel is too strategic to fail. And the US government has huge incentives to make sure that it succeeds. But it's still not enough in our opinion because like the steel manufacturers Intel's real advantage today is increasingly in the high end high margin business. And without volume, China is going to win this battle. So we continue to believe that a new joint venture is going to emerge. Here's our prediction. We see a triumvirate emerging in a new joint venture that is led by Intel. It brings x86, that volume associated with that. It brings cash, manufacturing prowess, R&D. It brings global resources, so much more than we show in this chart. IBM as we laid out brings architecture, it's R&D, it's longstanding relationships. It's deal flow, it can funnel its business to the joint venture as can of course, parts of Intel. We see IBM getting a nice licensed deal from Intel and or the JV. And it has to get paid for its contribution and we think it'll also get a sweet deal and the manufacturing fees from this Intel Foundry. But it's still not enough to beat China. Intel needs volume. And that's where Samsung comes in. It has the volume with ARM, has the experience and a complete offering across products. We also think that South Korea is a more geographically appealing spot in the globe than Taiwan with its proximity to China. Not to mention that TSMC, it doesn't need Intel. It's already number one. Intel can get a better deal from number two, Samsung. And together these three we think, in this unique structure could give it a chance to become number one by the end of the decade or early in the 2030s. We think what's happening is our take, is that Intel is going to fight hard to win that government business, put itself in a stronger negotiating position and then cut a deal with some supplier. We think Samsung makes more sense than anybody else. Now finally, we want to leave you with some comments and some thoughts from the community. First, I want to thank David Foyer. His decade plus of work and knowledge of this industry along with this collaboration made this work possible. His fingerprints are all over this research in case you didn't notice. And next I want to share comments from two of my colleagues. The first is Serbjeet Johal. He sent this to me last night. He said, "We are not in our grandfather's compute era anymore. Compute is getting spread into every aspect of our economy and lives. The use of processors is getting more and more specialized and will intensify with the rise in edge computing, AI inference and new workloads." Yes, I totally agree with Sarbjeet. And that's the dynamic which Pat is betting and betting big. But the bottom line is summed up by my friend and former IDC mentor, Dave Moschella. He says, "This is all about China. History suggests that there are very few second acts, you know other than Microsoft and Apple. History also will say that the antitrust pressures that enabled AMD to thrive are the ones, the very ones that starved Intel's cash. Microsoft made the shift it's PC software cash cows proved impervious to competition. The irony is the same government that attacked Intel's monopoly now wants to be Intel's protector because of China. Perhaps it's a cautionary tale to those who want to break up big tech." Wow. What more can I add to that? Okay. That's it for now. Remember I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes are all available as podcasts. All you got to do is search for Braking Analysis podcasts and you can always connect with me on Twitter @dvellante or email me at david.vellante, siliconangle.com As always I appreciate the comments on LinkedIn and in clubhouse please follow me so that you're notified when we start a room and start riffing on these topics. And don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Much of the discussion around Intel's current challenges, is focused on manufacturing issues and it's ongoing market share skirmish with AMD. Of course, that's very understandable. But the core issue Intel faces is that it has lost the volume game forever. And in Silicon volume is king. As such incoming CEO Pat Gelsinger faces some difficult decisions. I mean, on the one hand he could take some logical steps to shore up the company's execution, maybe outsource a portion of its manufacturing. Make some incremental changes that would unquestionably please Wall Street and probably drive shareholder value when combined with the usual stock buybacks and dividends. On the other hand, Gelsinger could make much more dramatic moves shedding it's vertically integrated heritage and transforming Intel into a leading designer of chips for the emerging multi-trillion dollar markets that are highly fragmented and generally referred to as the edge. We believe Intel has no choice. It must create a deep partnership in our view with a semiconductor manufacturer with aspirations to manufacture on US soil and focus Intel's resources on design. Hello, everyone. And welcome to this week's Wikibon's Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis will put forth our prognosis for what Intel's future looks like and lay out what we think the company needs to do not only to maintain its relevance but to regain the position it once held as perhaps the most revered company in tech. Let's start by looking at some of the fundamental factors that we've been tracking and that have shaped and are shaping Intel and our thinking around Intel today. First, it's really important to point out that new CEO Gelsinger is walking into a really difficult situation. Intel's ascendancy and its dominance it was created by PC volumes. And its development of an ecosystem that the company created around the x86 instruction set. In semiconductors volume is everything. The player with the highest volumes has the lowest manufacturing costs. And the math around learning curves is very clear and it's compelling. It's based on Wright's law named after Theodore Wright T.P Wright. He was an aeronautical engineer and he discovered that for every cumulative doubling of units manufactured, costs are going to fall by a constant percentage. Now in semiconductor way for manufacturing that cost is roughly around 22% declines. And when you consider the economics of manufacturing a next generation technology, for example going from ten nanometers to seven nanometers this becomes huge. Because the cost of making seven nanometer tech for example is much higher relative to 10 nanometers. But if you can fit more circuits on a chip your wafer costs can drop by 30% or even more. Now this learning curve benefit is why volume is so important. If the time it takes to double volume is elongated then the learning curve benefit they get elongated as well and it become less competitive from a cost standpoint. And that's exactly what is happening to Intel. You see x86 PC volumes, they peaked in 2011 and that marked the beginning of the end of Intel's dominance from manufacturing and cost standpoint. You know, ironically HDD hard disk drive volumes peaked around the same time and you're seeing a similar fundamental shift in that market relative to flash. Now because Intel has a vertically integrated model it's designers are limited by the constraints in the manufacturing process. What used to be Intel's ace in the hole its process manufacturing has become a hindrance, frustrating Intel's chip designers and really seeding advantage to a number of competitors including AMD, ARM and Nvidia. Now, during this time we've seen high profile innovators adapting alternative processors companies like Apple which chose its own design based on ARM for the M1. Tesla is a fascinating case study where Intel was really not in the running. AWS probably Intel's largest customer is developing its own chips. You know through Intel, a little bone at the recent reinvent it announced its use of Intel's Habana chips in a practically the same sentence that talked about how it was developing a similar chip that would provide even better price performance. And just last month it was reported that Microsoft Intel's monopoly partner in the PC era was developing its own ARM-based chips for the surface PCs and for its servers. Intel's Zenith was marked by those peak PC volumes that we talked about. Now to stress this point this chart shows x86 PC volumes over time. That red highlighted area shows the peak years. Now, volumes actually grew in 2020 in part due to COVID which is not really reflected in this chart but the volume game was lost for Intel. When it has been widely reported that in 2005 Steve Jobs approached Intel as it was replacing IBM microprocessors with with Intel processors for the Mac and asked Intel to develop the chip for the iPhone Intel passed and the die was cast. Now to the earlier point, PC markets are actually quite good if you're Dell. Here's some ETR data that shows Dell's laptop net score. Net score is a measure of spending momentum for 2020 and into 2021. Dell's client business has been very good and profitable and frankly, it's been a pleasant surprise. You know, PCs they're doing well. And as you can see in this chart, Dell has momentum. There's approximately 275 million maybe as high as 300 million PC units shipped worldwide in 2020, you know up double digits by some estimates. However, ARM chip units shipped exceeded 20 billion units last year worldwide. And it's not apples to apples. You know, we're comparing x86 based PCs to ARM chips. So this excludes x86 servers, but the way for volume for ARM dwarfs that of x86 probably by a factor of 10 times. Back to Wright's law, how long is it going to take Intel to double wafer volumes? It's not going to happen. And trust me, Pat Gelsinger understands this dynamic probably better than anyone in the world and certainly better than I do. And as you look out to the future, the story for Intel and it's vertically integrated approach it's even tougher. This chart shows Wikibon's 2020 forecast for ARM based compared to x86 based PCs. It also includes some other devices but as you can see what happens by the end of the decade is ARM really starts to eat in to x86. As we've seen with the M1 at Apple, ARM is competing in PCs in much better position for these emerging devices that support things like video and virtual reality systems. And we think even will start to eat into the enterprise. So again, the volume game is over for Intel, period. They're never going to win it back. Well, you might ask what about revenue? Intel still dominates in the data center right? Well, yes. And that is much higher revenue per unit but we still believe that revenue from ARM-based systems are going to surpass that of x86 by the end of the decade. Arm compute revenue is shown in the orange area in this chart with x86 in the blue. This means to us that Intel's last mot is going to be its position in the data center. It has to protect that at all costs. Now the market knows this. It knows something's wrong with Intel. And you can see that is reflected in the valuations of semiconductor companies. This chart compares the trailing 12 month revenue in the market valuations for Intel, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm. And you can see at a trailing 12 month multiple revenue with 3 X compared to about 22 X for Nvidia about 10 X for AMT and Qualcomm, Intel is lagging behind in the street's view. And Intel, as you can see here, it's now considered a cheap stock by many, you know. Here's a graph that shows the performance over the past 12 months compared to the NASDAQ which you can see that major divergence. NASDAQ has been powered part by COVID and all the new tech and the work from home. The stock reacted very well to the appointment of Gelsinger. That's no surprise. The question people are asking is what's next for Intel? How will Pat turn the company's fortunes around? How long is it going to take? What moves can he and should he make? How will they be received by the market? And internally, very importantly, within Intel's culture. These are big chewy questions and people are split on what should be done. I've heard everything from Pat should just clean up the execution issues. It's no.. This is, you know, very workable and not make any major strategic moves all the way to Intel should do a hybrid outsourced model to Intel should aggressively move out of manufacturing. Let me read some things from Barron's and some other media. Intel has fallen behind rivals and the rest of tech Intel is replacing Bob Swan. Investors are cheering the move. Intel would likely turn to Taiwan semiconductor for chips. Here's who benefits most. So let's take a look at some of the opinions that are inside these articles. So, first one I'm going to pull out Intel has indicated a willingness to try new things and investors expect the company to announce a hybrid manufacturing approach in January. Now, if you take a look at that and you quote a CEO Swan, he says, what has changed is that we have much more flexibility in our designs. And with that type of design we have the ability to move things in and move things out. And that gives us a little more flexibility about what we will make and what we might take from the outside. So let's unpack that a little bit. The new Intel, we know is a highly vertically integrated workflow from design to manufacturing production. But to me, the designers are the artists and the flexibility you would think would come from outsourcing manufacturer to give designers more flexibility to take advantage of say seven nanometer or five nanometer process technologies versus having to wait for Intel to catch up. It used to be that Intel's process was the industry's best and it could supercharge a design or even mask certain design challenges so that Intel could maintain its edge but that's no longer the case. Here's a sentiment from an analyst, Daniel Donnelly. Donnelly is at Citi. It says he's confident. Donnelly is confident that Intel's decision to outsource more of its production won't result in the company divesting its entire manufacturing segment. And he cited three reasons. One, it would take roughly three years to bring a chip to market. And two, Intel would have to share IP. And three, it would hurt Intel's profit margins. He said it would negatively impact gross margins by 10 points and would cause a 25% decline in EPS. Now I don't know about this. I would... To that I would say one, Intel needs to reduce its current cycle time, to go from design to production from let's say three to four years where it is today. It's got to get it under you know, at least at two years maybe even less. Second, I would say is what good is intellectual property if it's not helping you win in the market? And three, I think profitability is nuance. So here's another take from a UBS analyst. His name is Timothy Arcuri. And he says, quote, We see but no option but for Intel to aggressively pursue an outsourcing strategy. He wrote that Intel could be 80% outsourced by 2026. And just by going to 50% outsourcing, he said would save the company $4 billion annually in CapEx and 25% would drop to free cashflow. So look, maybe Gelsinger has to sacrifice some gross margin in EPS for the time being. Reduce the cost of goods sold by outsourcing manufacturing lower its CapEx and fund innovation in design with free cash flow. Here's our take, Pat Gelsinger needs to look in the mirror and ask what would Andy Grove do? You know, Grove's quote that only the paranoid survive its famous less well-known are the words that proceeded that quote. Success breeds complacency and complacency breeds failure. Intel in our view is headed on a path to a long drawn out failure if it doesn't act aggressively. It simply can't compete on cost as an integrated manufacturer because it doesn't have the volume. So what will Pat Gelsinger do? You know, we've probably done 30 Cube interviews with Pat and I just don't think he's taking the job to make some incremental changes to Intel to get the stock price back up. Why would that excite Pat Gelsinger? Trends, markets, people, society, he's a dot connector and he loves Intel deeply. And he's a legend at the company. Here's what we strongly believe. We think Intel has to do a deal with TSM or maybe Samsung perhaps some kind of joint venture or other innovative structure that both protects its IP and secures its future. You know, both of these manufacturers would love to have a stronger US presence. In markets where Intel has many manufacturing facilities they may even be willing to take a loss to get this started and deeply partner with Intel for some period of time This would allow Intel to better compete on a cost basis with AMD. It would protect its core data center revenue and allow it to fight the fight in PCs with better cost structures. Maybe even gain some share that could count for, you know another $10 billion to the top line. Intel should focus on reducing its cycle times and unleashing its designers to create new solutions. Let a manufacturing partner who has the learning curve advantages enable Intel designers to innovate and extend ecosystems into new markets. Autonomous vehicles, factory floor use cases, military security, distributed cloud the coming telco explosion with 5G, AI inferencing at the edge. Bite the bullet, give up on yesterday's playbook and reinvent Intel for the next 50 years. That's what we'd like to see. And that's what we think Gelsinger will conclude when he channels his mentor. What do you think? Please comment on my LinkedIn posts. You can DM me at dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes remember are also available as podcasts for your listening pleasure. Just search Breaking Analysis podcast. Many thanks to my friend and colleague David Floyer who contributed to this episode and that has done great work in the last better part of the last decade and has really thought through some of the cost factors that we talked about today. Also don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action. Thanks for watching this episode of the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Be well. And we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

(upbeat music) >> Hi, and welcome to theCUBE, the leading source for insights into the world of technology and innovation. I'm your host Donald Klein, and today's topic is the market for autonomous vehicles and the ecosystem suppliers looking to tap into this brave new world of autonomous capabilities in our daily commute. To have this conversation I'm joined by Rudy Burger, managing partner at Woodside Capital. Rudy, welcome to the show. >> Thanks Don, it's great to be here. >> Great, so look, why don't we start off Rudy, why don't you tell us a little bit about Woodside Capital and your role there? >> Great, so I founded Woodside Capital about 20 years ago having started five different companies of my own, one of which I took public. We are a specialist M&A advisor. We work with so-called growth stage often venture-backed companies and help them find buyers that are usually much larger public companies. Our clients are usually US or European companies and we find buyers in the US, Europe, or Asia. >> Excellent, excellent, okay. And why don't you talk a little bit about your kind of specialty areas? >> So I focused my career, and certainly the work at Woodside Capital, on imaging technologies and as an enabling technology, and the products and markets that are enabled by imaging and increasingly computer vision. So nowadays that is autonomous vehicles, consumer technology, security surveillance, and digital health. So enabling technologies, the computer vision is the theme that binds those together. >> Okay, well, the thing that's on everybody's mind these days is autonomous vehicles, when are we going to get them? Very high profile for sure. Before the show we talking about the kind of two key ingredients to making this happen, the AI software which is kind of the brains of the operation and then also the sensors which enable all of the AI. So why don't we talk about the sensor world first, okay? Lot of discussion about there, so sort of does the brave new world of vehicles need lidar? Does it not need lidar? Are there other types of sensors coming along? What's your sense of that market and how it's looking for all of the different players in it? >> So, Don, I look at it from a sort of fairly basic standpoint. Humans have two very capable image sensors and a very powerful processor, and the degree to which the automotive manufacturers and so-called Robo-Taxi developers have decided it's necessary to sprinkle every sensor known to man, and I'm talking lidar, radar, ultrasound, thermal, and of course cameras, is to some extent a degree to which, you know, image sensors are not as good as our eyes today. Now, there are some areas in which we will probably always have technology as a help. For example, humans are not very good at seeing in the dark whereas a thermal technology can do that very well. But my overall belief is that it's never a good idea to bet against an incumbent technology, and in this case I'm talking about so-called CMOS image sensors which are the sensor that goes into pretty much every camera in the world now. It's never a good idea to bet against the incumbent technology being able to scale into a new market. Every time people have done that, they've been wrong. Back in the early days the debate was whether CMOS image sensors would ever be good enough to replace CCDs as the sensor technology, and of course now, you know, everything uses CMOS image sensors. In other markets there was a long period of time in which people were thinking that LCD panels would never be large enough to replace, you know, for television, for example, 50 inch and so forth. It was never going to happen, so we needed plasma TVs, we needed rear-projection TVs. But slowly but surely the incumbent technology, LCDs, expanded to that market. So my belief is that CMOS image sensors will evolve to a point at which they will replace the need for lidar in most applications. >> Interesting, so that's a very controversial statement, right? Because you've certainly seen a lot of emphasis on the development of new generation lidar capability. >> Over 100 lidar companies started over the last three, four years, and of course many of them will not be happy to hear me say that. There are two distinct markets and one is the so-called Robo-Taxi market, and the other is more of the consumer vehicle ADAS market, and I think we need to think about those separately because the economics behind both are very different. If you look at the Robo-Taxi market, those vehicles tend to be much more expensive and are relatively price-insensitive. So if they can improve safety a little bit by putting a lidar on there, you know, great, let's do it, multiple lidars because these vehicles will be in operation 24 by seven, and if each vehicle costs 200,000, $250,000, fine. When we talk about the mass market for automobiles, type of car that you and I might go down and buy, very different thing. And, you know, auto makers sweat the pennies, and so putting a one or $200 lidar in a vehicle, big decision. And to the extent that they can replace the need for that lidar with a much less expensive camera system, that's what they'll do. Bear in mind that Mobileye, which has been the biggest success story, acquired by Intel for $13.5 billion, second largest acquisition Intel ever made, they for the most part still run on one camera, forward-looking camera. That's it, no radar, no lidar, no thermal, one camera. So the clever use of image processing, computer vision, and one image sensor can do a great deal. >> Interesting, okay. Well, so I want to talk about the software in just a second, but just to kind of finish this point, so if you were advising a sensor company that's developing some next gen capabilities, whether lidar or other related technologies, is the point you're making here that there are certain segments of this industry which are going to be more attractive to your technology than others? >> Absolutely, yes. I mean, the first thing to recognize is that the automotive industry has never really been a particularly comfortable fit with the economics and timeline of venture capital. VCs need to invest and recoup and redeploy back to their LPs on an eight-year cycle. But the automotive industry moves quite slowly, perhaps Tesla are excepted, and what the first piece of advice I would give these companies is it's probably going to be three, four, five years before, even if you have the right technology, before that technology really starts generating any significant volume and revenue. So for many venture-backed companies, that's too long. So the first piece of advice is find pockets of revenue, right, beachheads if you will, where you can land your technology and start generating revenue before you get to the automotive market. And many of these lidar companies we just talked about are not going to last long enough to get to the automotive market because not only does the automotive market move slowly but the autonomous vehicle market keeps on getting pushed out to the right as the industry realizes that this is a big, hairy problem. And so I would say, what is it that your technology can do an order of magnitude better than any other technology? Focus on that and find some opportunities for revenue outside the automotive industry that will sustain the company on its way to the holy grail. >> Interesting, yeah, so find that alternative revenue source to get you to base camp, and then when the market's ready, climb that Everest to-- >> I've seen so many companies basically go out of business because they've set their sights on either the automotive market, and it's go for broke. We're not interested in, all these other things are distractions. You know, entrepreneurs don't have a plan B. Or this. We're going to get our technology into a smartphone, that's it. And there are possibly some other opportunities but it takes so long and it's so difficult to get your technology into a smartphone that they go out of business before they ever get to that point. >> Interesting, okay. So good advice for people looking to kind of apply their technology in this kind of a very difficult market, right, very complicated market. All right, well, then let's switch to the other side of it. So we were kind of talking about the key ingredients, right? Sensors but also AI and the software around that, okay, and there are some very big players developing the software. Tesla's had their Autonomy Day where they've showcased their technology. You've obviously got Google with their capabilities developing software. How do you make sense of this overall landscape because we do see a lot of smaller providers also trying to develop software here. >> So the first thing that I find fascinating about the automotive industry is that for the most part there is no software market. There's perhaps one exception of any scale, that's BlackBerry that sells the QNX software. They found a point within the entertainment console where they can license their software. But for all of the development and capital invested into automotive software, nobody is actually generating revenue, making a living, by licensing software. And one of the main reasons for that is that, you know, the automotive market, really since inception, has been a hardware business. This is a business of bending sheet metal, internal combustion engines, and software has really not played that big a role up until relatively recently. So even those companies that do have software technology have ended up selling it into the automotive supply chain as a piece of silicon, embedded on a piece of silicon, not as, you know, here's my software on a USB stick, right? I think that the whole software licensing model hasn't so far fit well, fit comfortably, with the automotive industry. And the other reason is that there's no standard platform. If I were to develop a piece of software, I can, in the PC industry, I can develop for Windows, I can develop for Mac, I can develop for an iPhone. There's no such thing in the automotive industry, and particularly in this new world of autonomous vehicles there is no standard platform. There are many different processors, Nvidia has staked an early claim there. And the reason that most of the companies developing autonomous vehicle technology have developed the so-called full-stack solution, everything from code running on the processor, integrated through the sensors and so forth, is for that reason, there is no standard platform. So each company has developed the whole solution for themselves, and there are many of them around here that have raised hundreds of millions of dollars, some cases billions of dollars, for that purpose. So there is, today, no software market for automotive in the same way that we think about it in other industries. >> Understood, understood. But in terms of the companies that are actually pushing the envelope on these kind of capabilities, right, so we're taking the best of AI, we're applying it to big data sets, and then hopefully being able to extract that to create capabilities for these vehicles, right? What's your sense of how far that's come along in-- >> Well, it's come a long way but, here I'm going to push the boat out a little bit. I don't believe that the so-called deep learning technology, which is the current state of the art for AI, it's the technology that has allowed computers to beat humans at chess, at Go, I don't think that that flavor of AI, that approach to AI, is ever going to get us to safe enough autonomous vehicles. And that's because it works extremely well in fairly well-bounded rules, rule-bounded games or any scenario like that, but can you imagine trying to teach your 16-year-old how to drive by showing them images of every situation that they might encounter, right? Impossible. It's an infinite, it's not a well-bounded set. And that's so difficult because we really haven't developed the technology to allow computers to learn, to have things like common sense, to infer, you know, well, this happened, so this is likely to happen. So I think we are going to need a whole new breakthrough in AI before we get to what is generally considered safe enough vehicles. >> Interesting, well then, maybe if we kind of apply your previous thought about sort of Robo-Taxis as maybe being the segment where you're going to see the most use of these newer sensor technologies. >> Rudy: Near term, yes. >> Exactly, what about maybe, is that sort of the same rules apply there for maybe the AI providers, that they're-- >> I think so and that's why they're all focused on that. I mean, from Uber to Waymo, they've all made the same calculation which is if you're running a fleet of vehicles, and so for example in Uber's case, the driver takes 80% of the fare and only 20% goes back to Uber, but if you can replace the driver with a computer, you can keep that vehicle on the road 24 by seven and you can keep 100% of the revenue. You don't need to pay the computer. So that's the calculus that they're all going through. But I think that many of them are making a fundamental mistake and I predicted recently that I think Uber, my prediction for 2020 is that Uber is going to divest its autonomous vehicle business and get back to the business that it should be focused on. Uber generates about $14 billion a year in gross revenue, so 20% of that, which is the piece that Uber keeps after the drivers take their 80, is what, 2.8 billion. Uber should be able to be an extremely profitable business on 2.8 billion of net revenue, but they're spending a huge chunk of money every year on R&D. Now, I would argue that Hertz and Avis have successful businesses. They're in the service, they're in the transportation business, but they didn't decide that they had to build their own cars in order to be in that business. My view, personal view, is that what Uber should be doing is saying, that's not our business, right? We are the world's best at managing this sort of peer-to-peer network crowdsourced transportation, if you will. And when some company, some Silicon Valley startup, comes out with safe enough technology, great, we'll use it, but we don't have to develop that ourselves. >> Well then, maybe just to play devil's advocate here for a second, what about it's a Robo-Taxi-type technologies being applied in bounded areas within metropolitan areas where the rules-- >> That's where it will start. >> Could be more-- >> I think that's where it will start, but I think part of the problem is that we have, perhaps in part due to all of the media hype around autonomous vehicles, we've been misdirected to thinking about autonomous vehicles as a replacement for the car we drive to work every day and I think that's the wrong way to think about it. I think that autonomous vehicles are going to show up in the market as an extension of public transportation. Right, you know, I get off the train and there's an autonomous vehicle waiting to take me for the last couple of miles to my office. >> And those last couple of miles would be sort of a regulated space. >> Rudy: May well be. >> Where the AI is more than capable of functioning. >> Right, and that, you know, yes. And so it's better to think about autonomous vehicles as not being a revolutionary technology but much more of an evolutionary technology. And in fact, most of these technologies are showing up in so-called ADAS technologies which are designed to make driving your regular car safer, lane assist, keeping you a safe distance. >> Donald: Maybe just explain that word, ADAS, and what that means. >> So ADAS stands for automated driver-assistance systems. So one of the first was cruise control, right, everybody's familiar with cruise control. And so to some extent ADAS is just building on cruise control. In addition to maintaining a constant speed, you can now stay in the lane. In addition to maintaining a constant speed, it will now automatically slow down if you get too close to the car in front. And so you can see ADAS as, you know, collision avoidance and so forth, not full autonomy, still have to have a driver in the driver's seat, but evolving year by year until one year we wake up and, yep, my car will actually drive me all the way from home to work without me intervening. Right, it's going to happen in that way. >> So incremental improvements. >> Incremental improvement. >> To ADAS as opposed to kind of revolution of autonomy. >> An overnight sensation. >> Yeah, right, coming from nowhere. Okay, understood. Well then, let's pivot from that then, okay. So let's talk about the automotive industry as a whole and sort of your thoughts on how this is all going to play out. >> Yeah, so there are some very interesting dynamics playing out in the automotive industry. Firstly, as good news, as a result of all of this money and innovation in the automotive industry, Detroit's actually coming back. I go there once or twice a year and you can feel the economy coming back in Detroit, but it's not going to come back around, you know, bending sheet metal. And the challenge that the automotive companies have is so much of their infrastructure and expertise has been built on construction, building a car, production lines to bend the metal, install the engine, and the internal combustion engine itself. And by complete coincidence, to some extent, we've got this confluence of all of these autonomous technologies and electric vehicles happening at the same time. Electric vehicles are much easier to make than internal combustion engines. Far fewer parts. It's one of the reasons that China has spun up about 20 different electric vehicle companies recently. So I think that long term, my prediction is that the automobile industry will go the same way that the personal computer industry went. When the PC first, you know, it was born by IBM, or Apple in some sense before that. There were dozens of companies producing different PCs and it was very much, they were expensive products, and, you know, relatively unusual. As the industry matured, the supply chains matured, and it became apparent there were really only two companies that were making a lot of money out of the PC industry. The companies that developed the software, operating system, and the companies that developed the processor, and all of the manufacturing went over to, in the PC's case, in Taiwan, right? And I think that exactly the same thing is going to happen with the automotive industry. Tesla today still actually makes cars, but I don't see them long term being in the car business because they're really a technology company. It's the reason I don't think Apple is ever going to get into the car industry. They make fantastic margins selling computer products. The gross margin selling a car, it's miserable. It can be single digits or teens. That would completely tank Apple's blended gross margin. So my prediction for the industry is there will be a few small pockets of very profitable businesses, particularly around the operating system, by which I mean the intelligence or the AI intelligence, and then the processor, whether it's a Qualcomm processor or a Nvidia processor or an Intel processor. And as with the PC industry, most of the profit will go there and most of the manufacturing will end up getting outsourced because that's not the value-add, you know, bending metal and so forth. >> Interesting, well, so in the kind of compute market today, right, we have this notion of sort of cloud-native, right, okay, and that many of the companies that are developing apps as relying on cloud-native infrastructure have a kind of technology lead that's going to be hard for some of the legacy providers to actually catch up on. Now, other people say that that's not necessarily the case and et cetera, right? Can you make the same argument for the electric car market, that some of the electric-natives might have a kind of sustainable advantage here? >> I should've added, today the cloud infrastructure companies, cloud services, SaaS companies, in the PC world, you know, very profitable, and I can see a similar cloud services model developing for the automotive industry. However, other than Tesla, it's very difficult to change the automotive channel to support that. I'll give you one example. Everyone that owns a Tesla is very used to the idea that, sometimes on a daily basis, a new bunch of software, operating system software, is downloaded overnight to your vehicle. You wake up in the morning and some new feature's been turned on, right? Tesla can do that because they bypass the entire dealership channel that has a complete lock on the rest of the industry. So for example, if GM wants to do the same thing as Tesla and do sort of what's called over-the-air, OTA, updates, software updates, they can't do that because their contract with the dealership network states that if there is service to be done on the vehicle, the vehicle has to be brought back to the dealership, and the dealerships consider updating the software on the vehicle as service. So their contract with the dealers actually prevent them from doing something that basic. So it's not just a technology issue. The whole channel and way vehicles get sold is going to have to change. >> Interesting, so that's the advantage that some of the new generation of vehicle manufacturers-- >> I would say that Tesla has a five year lead, technology lead, because they, like Apple, are vertically integrated. They're doing everything from user interface, fit and function, all the way down to the semiconductor. They're developing their own semiconductors now. So they have become a fearsome competitor in the electronic vehicle space because they've been doing it for longer than the other major auto companies. They've figured out a lot of the, you know, tricks and techniques of how to extend mileage and so forth. And so they have a substantial lead in the industry at this point, despite the fact that over the next 12, 18 months, every automotive company is going to be coming out with their own flavor of electronic vehicle. >> So then it's more than just about having electric drivetrains, et cetera, right? It's about the whole suite of capabilities. >> It's a systems engineering challenge. >> Interesting, okay. All right, well Rudy, we're going to have to leave it there, okay, but I think everything you've told us is, it sounds like some good news for some of the Tesla stock holders at the moment. >> I think so. >> Okay, well. (laughs) We'll pass on making an opinion about that, but great conversation, thank you for your insights. Okay, this is Donald Klein, host of theCUBE, here with Rudy Burger, managing partner at Woodside Capital. >> Rudy: Great, thank you, Don. (upbeat music)