(upbeat music) >> Hello, everybody. This is Dave Vellante. Welcome back to Supercloud2, where we're exploring the intersection of data analytics and the future of cloud. In this segment, we're going to look at how the Supercloud will support a new class of applications, not just work that runs on multiple clouds, but rather a new breed of apps that can orchestrate things in the real world. Think Uber for many types of businesses. These applications, they're not about codifying forms or business processes. They're about orchestrating people, places, and things in a business ecosystem. And I'm pleased to welcome my colleague and friend, George Gilbert, former Gartner Analyst, Wiki Bond market analyst, former equities analyst as my co-host. And we're thrilled to have Tristan Handy, who's the founder and CEO of DBT Labs and Bob Muglia, who's the former President of Microsoft's Enterprise business and former CEO of Snowflake. Welcome all, gentlemen. Thank you for coming on the program. >> Good to be here. >> Thanks for having us. >> Hey, look, I'm going to start actually with the SuperCloud because both Tristan and Bob, you've read the definition. Thank you for doing that. And Bob, you have some really good input, some thoughts on maybe some of the drawbacks and how we can advance this. So what are your thoughts in reading that definition around SuperCloud? >> Well, I thought first of all that you did a very good job of laying out all of the characteristics of it and helping to define it overall. But I do think it can be tightened a bit, and I think it's helpful to do it in as short a way as possible. And so in the last day I've spent a little time thinking about how to take it and write a crisp definition. And here's my go at it. This is one day old, so gimme a break if it's going to change. And of course we have to follow the industry, and so that, and whatever the industry decides, but let's give this a try. So in the way I think you're defining it, what I would say is a SuperCloud is a platform that provides programmatically consistent services hosted on heterogeneous cloud providers. >> Boom. Nice. Okay, great. I'm going to go back and read the script on that one and tighten that up a bit. Thank you for spending the time thinking about that. Tristan, would you add anything to that or what are your thoughts on the whole SuperCloud concept? >> So as I read through this, I fully realize that we need a word for this thing because I have experienced the inability to talk about it as well. But for many of us who have been living in the Confluence, Snowflake, you know, this world of like new infrastructure, this seems fairly uncontroversial. Like I read through this, and I'm just like, yeah, this is like the world I've been living in for years now. And I noticed that you called out Snowflake for being an example of this, but I think that there are like many folks, myself included, for whom this world like fully exists today. >> Yeah, I think that's a fair, I dunno if it's criticism, but people observe, well, what's the big deal here? It's just kind of what we're living in today. It reminds me of, you know, Tim Burns Lee saying, well, this is what the internet was supposed to be. It was supposed to be Web 2.0, so maybe this is what multi-cloud was supposed to be. Let's turn our attention to apps. Bob first and then go to Tristan. Bob, what are data apps to you? When people talk about data products, is that what they mean? Are we talking about something more, different? What are data apps to you? >> Well, to understand data apps, it's useful to contrast them to something, and I just use the simple term people apps. I know that's a little bit awkward, but it's clear. And almost everything we work with, almost every application that we're familiar with, be it email or Salesforce or any consumer app, those are applications that are targeted at responding to people. You know, in contrast, a data application reacts to changes in data and uses some set of analytic services to autonomously take action. So where applications that we're familiar with respond to people, data apps respond to changes in data. And they both do something, but they do it for different reasons. >> Got it. You know, George, you and I were talking about, you know, it comes back to SuperCloud, broad definition, narrow definition. Tristan, how do you see it? Do you see it the same way? Do you have a different take on data apps? >> Oh, geez. This is like a conversation that I don't know has an end. It's like been, I write a substack, and there's like this little community of people who all write substack. We argue with each other about these kinds of things. Like, you know, as many different takes on this question as you can find, but the way that I think about it is that data products are atomic units of functionality that are fundamentally data driven in nature. So a data product can be as simple as an interactive dashboard that is like actually had design thinking put into it and serves a particular user group and has like actually gone through kind of a product development life cycle. And then a data app or data application is a kind of cohesive end-to-end experience that often encompasses like many different data products. So from my perspective there, this is very, very related to the way that these things are produced, the kinds of experiences that they're provided, that like data innovates every product that we've been building in, you know, software engineering for, you know, as long as there have been computers. >> You know, Jamak Dagani oftentimes uses the, you know, she doesn't name Spotify, but I think it's Spotify as that kind of example she uses. But I wonder if we can maybe try to take some examples. If you take, like George, if you take a CRM system today, you're inputting leads, you got opportunities, it's driven by humans, they're really inputting the data, and then you got this system that kind of orchestrates the business process, like runs a forecast. But in this data driven future, are we talking about the app itself pulling data in and automatically looking at data from the transaction systems, the call center, the supply chain and then actually building a plan? George, is that how you see it? >> I go back to the example of Uber, may not be the most sophisticated data app that we build now, but it was like one of the first where you do have users interacting with their devices as riders trying to call a car or driver. But the app then looks at the location of all the drivers in proximity, and it matches a driver to a rider. It calculates an ETA to the rider. It calculates an ETA then to the destination, and it calculates a price. Those are all activities that are done sort of autonomously that don't require a human to type something into a form. The application is using changes in data to calculate an analytic product and then to operationalize that, to assign the driver to, you know, calculate a price. Those are, that's an example of what I would think of as a data app. And my question then I guess for Tristan is if we don't have all the pieces in place for sort of mainstream companies to build those sorts of apps easily yet, like how would we get started? What's the role of a semantic layer in making that easier for mainstream companies to build? And how do we get started, you know, say with metrics? How does that, how does that take us down that path? >> So what we've seen in the past, I dunno, decade or so, is that one of the most successful business models in infrastructure is taking hard things and rolling 'em up behind APIs. You take messaging, you take payments, and you all of a sudden increase the capability of kind of your median application developer. And you say, you know, previously you were spending all your time being focused on how do you accept credit cards, how do you send SMS payments, and now you can focus on your business logic, and just create the thing. One of, interestingly, one of the things that we still don't know how to API-ify is concepts that live inside of your data warehouse, inside of your data lake. These are core concepts that, you know, you would imagine that the business would be able to create applications around very easily, but in fact that's not the case. It's actually quite challenging to, and involves a lot of data engineering pipeline and all this work to make these available. And so if you really want to make it very easy to create some of these data experiences for users, you need to have an ability to describe these metrics and then to turn them into APIs to make them accessible to application developers who have literally no idea how they're calculated behind the scenes, and they don't need to. >> So how rich can that API layer grow if you start with metric definitions that you've defined? And DBT has, you know, the metric, the dimensions, the time grain, things like that, that's a well scoped sort of API that people can work within. How much can you extend that to say non-calculated business rules or governance information like data reliability rules, things like that, or even, you know, features for an AIML feature store. In other words, it starts, you started pragmatically, but how far can you grow? >> Bob is waiting with bated breath to answer this question. I'm, just really quickly, I think that we as a company and DBT as a product tend to be very pragmatic. We try to release the simplest possible version of a thing, get it out there, and see if people use it. But the idea that, the concept of a metric is really just a first landing pad. The really, there is a physical manifestation of the data and then there's a logical manifestation of the data. And what we're trying to do here is make it very easy to access the logical manifestation of the data, and metric is a way to look at that. Maybe an entity, a customer, a user is another way to look at that. And I'm sure that there will be more kind of logical structures as well. >> So, Bob, chime in on this. You know, what's your thoughts on the right architecture behind this, and how do we get there? >> Yeah, well first of all, I think one of the ways we get there is by what companies like DBT Labs and Tristan is doing, which is incrementally taking and building on the modern data stack and extending that to add a semantic layer that describes the data. Now the way I tend to think about this is a fairly major shift in the way we think about writing applications, which is today a code first approach to moving to a world that is model driven. And I think that's what the big change will be is that where today we think about data, we think about writing code, and we use that to produce APIs as Tristan said, which encapsulates those things together in some form of services that are useful for organizations. And that idea of that encapsulation is never going to go away. It's very, that concept of an API is incredibly useful and will exist well into the future. But what I think will happen is that in the next 10 years, we're going to move to a world where organizations are defining models first of their data, but then ultimately of their business process, their entire business process. Now the concept of a model driven world is a very old concept. I mean, I first started thinking about this and playing around with some early model driven tools, probably before Tristan was born in the early 1980s. And those tools didn't work because the semantics associated with executing the model were too complex to be written in anything other than a procedural language. We're now reaching a time where that is changing, and you see it everywhere. You see it first of all in the world of machine learning and machine learning models, which are taking over more and more of what applications are doing. And I think that's an incredibly important step. And learned models are an important part of what people will do. But if you look at the world today, I will claim that we've always been modeling. Modeling has existed in computers since there have been integrated circuits and any form of computers. But what we do is what I would call implicit modeling, which means that it's the model is written on a whiteboard. It's in a bunch of Slack messages. It's on a set of napkins in conversations that happen and during Zoom. That's where the model gets defined today. It's implicit. There is one in the system. It is hard coded inside application logic that exists across many applications with humans being the glue that connects those models together. And really there is no central place you can go to understand the full attributes of the business, all of the business rules, all of the business logic, the business data. That's going to change in the next 10 years. And we'll start to have a world where we can define models about what we're doing. Now in the short run, the most important models to build are data models and to describe all of the attributes of the data and their relationships. And that's work that DBT Labs is doing. A number of other companies are doing that. We're taking steps along that way with catalogs. People are trying to build more complete ontologies associated with that. The underlying infrastructure is still super, super nascent. But what I think we'll see is this infrastructure that exists today that's building learned models in the form of machine learning programs. You know, some of these incredible machine learning programs in foundation models like GPT and DALL-E and all of the things that are happening in these global scale models, but also all of that needs to get applied to the domains that are appropriate for a business. And I think we'll see the infrastructure developing for that, that can take this concept of learned models and put it together with more explicitly defined models. And this is where the concept of knowledge graphs come in and then the technology that underlies that to actually implement and execute that, which I believe are relational knowledge graphs. >> Oh, oh wow. There's a lot to unpack there. So let me ask the Colombo question, Tristan, we've been making fun of your youth. We're just, we're just jealous. Colombo, I'll explain it offline maybe. >> I watch Colombo. >> Okay. All right, good. So but today if you think about the application stack and the data stack, which is largely an analytics pipeline. They're separate. Do they, those worlds, do they have to come together in order to achieve Bob's vision? When I talk to practitioners about that, they're like, well, I don't want to complexify the application stack cause the data stack today is so, you know, hard to manage. But but do those worlds have to come together? And you know, through that model, I guess abstraction or translation that Bob was just describing, how do you guys think about that? Who wants to take that? >> I think it's inevitable that data and AI are going to become closer together? I think that the infrastructure there has been moving in that direction for a long time. Whether you want to use the Lakehouse portmanteau or not. There's also, there's a next generation of data tech that is still in the like early stage of being developed. There's a company that I love that is essentially Cross Cloud Lambda, and it's just a wonderful abstraction for computing. So I think that, you know, people have been predicting that these worlds are going to come together for awhile. A16Z wrote a great post on this back in I think 2020, predicting this, and I've been predicting this since since 2020. But what's not clear is the timeline, but I think that this is still just as inevitable as it's been. >> Who's that that does Cross Cloud? >> Let me follow up on. >> Who's that, Tristan, that does Cross Cloud Lambda? Can you name names? >> Oh, they're called Modal Labs. >> Modal Labs, yeah, of course. All right, go ahead, George. >> Let me ask about this vision of trying to put the semantics or the code that represents the business with the data. It gets us to a world that's sort of more data centric, where data's not locked inside or behind the APIs of different applications so that we don't have silos. But at the same time, Bob, I've heard you talk about building the semantics gradually on top of, into a knowledge graph that maybe grows out of a data catalog. And the vision of getting to that point, essentially the enterprise's metadata and then the semantics you're going to add onto it are really stored in something that's separate from the underlying operational and analytic data. So at the same time then why couldn't we gradually build semantics beyond the metric definitions that DBT has today? In other words, you build more and more of the semantics in some layer that DBT defines and that sits above the data management layer, but any requests for data have to go through the DBT layer. Is that a workable alternative? Or where, what type of limitations would you face? >> Well, I think that it is the way the world will evolve is to start with the modern data stack and, you know, which is operational applications going through a data pipeline into some form of data lake, data warehouse, the Lakehouse, whatever you want to call it. And then, you know, this wide variety of analytics services that are built together. To the point that Tristan made about machine learning and data coming together, you see that in every major data cloud provider. Snowflake certainly now supports Python and Java. Databricks is of course building their data warehouse. Certainly Google, Microsoft and Amazon are doing very, very similar things in terms of building complete solutions that bring together an analytics stack that typically supports languages like Python together with the data stack and the data warehouse. I mean, all of those things are going to evolve, and they're not going to go away because that infrastructure is relatively new. It's just being deployed by companies, and it solves the problem of working with petabytes of data if you need to work with petabytes of data, and nothing will do that for a long time. What's missing is a layer that understands and can model the semantics of all of this. And if you need to, if you want to model all, if you want to talk about all the semantics of even data, you need to think about all of the relationships. You need to think about how these things connect together. And unfortunately, there really is no platform today. None of our existing platforms are ultimately sufficient for this. It was interesting, I was just talking to a customer yesterday, you know, a large financial organization that is building out these semantic layers. They're further along than many companies are. And you know, I asked what they're building it on, and you know, it's not surprising they're using a, they're using combinations of some form of search together with, you know, textual based search together with a document oriented database. In this case it was Cosmos. And that really is kind of the state of the art right now. And yet those products were not built for this. They don't really, they can't manage the complicated relationships that are required. They can't issue the queries that are required. And so a new generation of database needs to be developed. And fortunately, you know, that is happening. The world is developing a new set of relational algorithms that will be able to work with hundreds of different relations. If you look at a SQL database like Snowflake or a big query, you know, you get tens of different joins coming together, and that query is going to take a really long time. Well, fortunately, technology is evolving, and it's possible with new join algorithms, worst case, optimal join algorithms they're called, where you can join hundreds of different relations together and run semantic queries that you simply couldn't run. Now that technology is nascent, but it's really important, and I think that will be a requirement to have this semantically reach its full potential. In the meantime, Tristan can do a lot of great things by building up on what he's got today and solve some problems that are very real. But in the long run I think we'll see a new set of databases to support these models. >> So Tristan, you got to respond to that, right? You got to, so take the example of Snowflake. We know it doesn't deal well with complex joins, but they're, they've got big aspirations. They're building an ecosystem to really solve some of these problems. Tristan, you guys are part of that ecosystem, and others, but please, your thoughts on what Bob just shared. >> Bob, I'm curious if, I would have no idea what you were talking about except that you introduced me to somebody who gave me a demo of a thing and do you not want to go there right now? >> No, I can talk about it. I mean, we can talk about it. Look, the company I've been working with is Relational AI, and they're doing this work to actually first of all work across the industry with academics and research, you know, across many, many different, over 20 different research institutions across the world to develop this new set of algorithms. They're all fully published, just like SQL, the underlying algorithms that are used by SQL databases are. If you look today, every single SQL database uses a similar set of relational algorithms underneath that. And those algorithms actually go back to system R and what IBM developed in the 1970s. We're just, there's an opportunity for us to build something new that allows you to take, for example, instead of taking data and grouping it together in tables, treat all data as individual relations, you know, a key and a set of values and then be able to perform purely relational operations on it. If you go back to what, to Codd, and what he wrote, he defined two things. He defined a relational calculus and relational algebra. And essentially SQL is a query language that is translated by the query processor into relational algebra. But however, the calculus of SQL is not even close to the full semantics of the relational mathematics. And it's possible to have systems that can do everything and that can store all of the attributes of the data model or ultimately the business model in a form that is much more natural to work with. >> So here's like my short answer to this. I think that we're dealing in different time scales. I think that there is actually a tremendous amount of work to do in the semantic layer using the kind of technology that we have on the ground today. And I think that there's, I don't know, let's say five years of like really solid work that there is to do for the entire industry, if not more. But the wonderful thing about DBT is that it's independent of what the compute substrate is beneath it. And so if we develop new platforms, new capabilities to describe semantic models in more fine grain detail, more procedural, then we're going to support that too. And so I'm excited about all of it. >> Yeah, so interpreting that short answer, you're basically saying, cause Bob was just kind of pointing to you as incremental, but you're saying, yeah, okay, we're applying it for incremental use cases today, but we can accommodate a much broader set of examples in the future. Is that correct, Tristan? >> I think you're using the word incremental as if it's not good, but I think that incremental is great. We have always been about applying incremental improvement on top of what exists today, but allowing practitioners to like use different workflows to actually make use of that technology. So yeah, yeah, we are a very incremental company. We're going to continue being that way. >> Well, I think Bob was using incremental as a pejorative. I mean, I, but to your point, a lot. >> No, I don't think so. I want to stop that. No, I don't think it's pejorative at all. I think incremental, incremental is usually the most successful path. >> Yes, of course. >> In my experience. >> We agree, we agree on that. >> Having tried many, many moonshot things in my Microsoft days, I can tell you that being incremental is a good thing. And I'm a very big believer that that's the way the world's going to go. I just think that there is a need for us to build something new and that ultimately that will be the solution. Now you can argue whether it's two years, three years, five years, or 10 years, but I'd be shocked if it didn't happen in 10 years. >> Yeah, so we all agree that incremental is less disruptive. Boom, but Tristan, you're, I think I'm inferring that you believe you have the architecture to accommodate Bob's vision, and then Bob, and I'm inferring from Bob's comments that maybe you don't think that's the case, but please. >> No, no, no. I think that, so Bob, let me put words into your mouth and you tell me if you disagree, DBT is completely useless in a world where a large scale cloud data warehouse doesn't exist. We were not able to bring the power of Python to our users until these platforms started supporting Python. Like DBT is a layer on top of large scale computing platforms. And to the extent that those platforms extend their functionality to bring more capabilities, we will also service those capabilities. >> Let me try and bridge the two. >> Yeah, yeah, so Bob, Bob, Bob, do you concur with what Tristan just said? >> Absolutely, I mean there's nothing to argue with in what Tristan just said. >> I wanted. >> And it's what he's doing. It'll continue to, I believe he'll continue to do it, and I think it's a very good thing for the industry. You know, I'm just simply saying that on top of that, I would like to provide Tristan and all of those who are following similar paths to him with a new type of database that can actually solve these problems in a much more architected way. And when I talk about Cosmos with something like Mongo or Cosmos together with Elastic, you're using Elastic as the join engine, okay. That's the purpose of it. It becomes a poor man's join engine. And I kind of go, I know there's a better answer than that. I know there is, but that's kind of where we are state of the art right now. >> George, we got to wrap it. So give us the last word here. Go ahead, George. >> Okay, I just, I think there's a way to tie together what Tristan and Bob are both talking about, and I want them to validate it, which is for five years we're going to be adding or some number of years more and more semantics to the operational and analytic data that we have, starting with metric definitions. My question is for Bob, as DBT accumulates more and more of those semantics for different enterprises, can that layer not run on top of a relational knowledge graph? And what would we lose by not having, by having the knowledge graph store sort of the joins, all the complex relationships among the data, but having the semantics in the DBT layer? >> Well, I think this, okay, I think first of all that DBT will be an environment where many of these semantics are defined. The question we're asking is how are they stored and how are they processed? And what I predict will happen is that over time, as companies like DBT begin to build more and more richness into their semantic layer, they will begin to experience challenges that customers want to run queries, they want to ask questions, they want to use this for things where the underlying infrastructure becomes an obstacle. I mean, this has happened in always in the history, right? I mean, you see major advances in computer science when the data model changes. And I think we're on the verge of a very significant change in the way data is stored and structured, or at least metadata is stored and structured. Again, I'm not saying that anytime in the next 10 years, SQL is going to go away. In fact, more SQL will be written in the future than has been written in the past. And those platforms will mature to become the engines, the slicer dicers of data. I mean that's what they are today. They're incredibly powerful at working with large amounts of data, and that infrastructure is maturing very rapidly. What is not maturing is the infrastructure to handle all of the metadata and the semantics that that requires. And that's where I say knowledge graphs are what I believe will be the solution to that. >> But Tristan, bring us home here. It sounds like, let me put pause at this, is that whatever happens in the future, we're going to leverage the vast system that has become cloud that we're talking about a supercloud, sort of where data lives irrespective of physical location. We're going to have to tap that data. It's not necessarily going to be in one place, but give us your final thoughts, please. >> 100% agree. I think that the data is going to live everywhere. It is the responsibility for both the metadata systems and the data processing engines themselves to make sure that we can join data across cloud providers, that we can join data across different physical regions and that we as practitioners are going to kind of start forgetting about details like that. And we're going to start thinking more about how we want to arrange our teams, how does the tooling that we use support our team structures? And that's when data mesh I think really starts to get very, very critical as a concept. >> Guys, great conversation. It was really awesome to have you. I can't thank you enough for spending time with us. Really appreciate it. >> Thanks a lot. >> All right. This is Dave Vellante for George Gilbert, John Furrier, and the entire Cube community. Keep it right there for more content. You're watching SuperCloud2. (upbeat music)

>> From the CUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from the Cube and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> A better than expected earnings report in late August got people excited about Snowflake again, but the negative sentiment in the market is weighed heavily on virtually all growth tech stocks and Snowflake is no exception. As we've stressed many times the company's management is on a long term mission to dramatically simplify the way organizations use data. Snowflake is tapping into a multi hundred billion dollar total available market and continues to grow at a rapid pace. In our view, Snowflake is embarking on its third major wave of innovation data apps, while its first and second waves are still bearing significant fruit. Now for short term traders focused on the next 90 or 180 days, that probably doesn't matter. But those taking a longer view are asking, "Should we still be optimistic about the future of this high flyer or is it just another over hyped tech play?" Hello and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube Insights powered by ETR. Snowflake's Quarter just ended. And in this breaking analysis we take a look at the most recent survey data from ETR to see what clues and nuggets we can extract to predict the near term future in the long term outlook for Snowflake which is going to announce its earnings at the end of this month. Okay, so you know the story. If you've been investor in Snowflake this year, it's been painful. We said at IPO, "If you really want to own this stock on day one, just hold your nose and buy it." But like most IPOs we said there will be likely a better entry point in the future, and not surprisingly that's been the case. Snowflake IPOed a price of 120, which you couldn't touch on day one unless you got into a friends and family Delio. And if you did, you're still up 5% or so. So congratulations. But at one point last year you were up well over 200%. That's been the nature of this volatile stock, and I certainly can't help you with the timing of the market. But longer term Snowflake is targeting 10 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2028. A big number. Is it achievable? Is it big enough? Tell you what, let's come back to that. Now shorter term, our expert trader and breaking analysis contributor Chip Simonton said he got out of the stock a while ago after having taken a shot at what turned out to be a bear market rally. He pointed out that the stock had been bouncing around the 150 level for the last few months and broke that to the downside last Friday. So he'd expect 150 is where the stock is going to find resistance on the way back up, but there's no sign of support right now. He said maybe at 120, which was the July low and of course the IPO price that we just talked about. Now, perhaps earnings will be a catalyst, when Snowflake announces on November 30th, but until the mentality toward growth tech changes, nothing's likely to change dramatically according to Simonton. So now that we have that out of the way, let's take a look at the spending data for Snowflake in the ETR survey. Here's a chart that shows the time series breakdown of snowflake's net score going back to the October, 2021 survey. Now at that time, Snowflake's net score stood at a robust 77%. And remember, net score is a measure of spending velocity. It's a proprietary network, and ETR derives it from a quarterly survey of IT buyers and asks the respondents, "Are you adopting the platform new? Are you spending 6% or more? Is you're spending flat? Is you're spending down 6% or worse? Or are you leaving the platform decommissioning?" You subtract the percent of customers that are spending less or churning from those that are spending more and adopting or adopting and you get a net score. And that's expressed as a percentage of customers responding. In this chart we show Snowflake's in out of the total survey which ranges... The total survey ranges between 1,200 and 1,400 each quarter. And the very last column... Oh sorry, very last row, we show the number of Snowflake respondents that are coming in the survey from the Fortune 500 and the Global 2000. Those are two very important Snowflake constituencies. Now what this data tells us is that Snowflake exited 2021 with very strong momentum in a net score of 82%, which is off the charts and it was actually accelerating from the previous survey. Now by April that sentiment had flipped and Snowflake came down to earth with a 68% net score. Still highly elevated relative to its peers, but meaningfully down. Why was that? Because we saw a drop in new ads and an increase in flat spend. Then into the July and most recent October surveys, you saw a significant drop in the percentage of customers that were spending more. Now, notably, the percentage of customers who are contemplating adding the platform is actually staying pretty strong, but it is off a bit this past survey. And combined with a slight uptick in planned churn, net score is now down to 60%. That uptick from 0% and 1% and then 3%, it's still small, but that net score at 60% is still 20 percentage points higher than our highly elevated benchmark of 40% as you recall from listening to earlier breaking analysis. That 40% range is we consider a milestone. Anything above that is actually quite strong. But again, Snowflake is down and coming back to churn, while 3% churn is very low, in previous quarters we've seen Snowflake 0% or 1% decommissions. Now the last thing to note in this chart is the meaningful uptick in survey respondents that are citing, they're using the Snowflake platform. That's up to 212 in the survey. So look, it's hard to imagine that Snowflake doesn't feel the softening in the market like everyone else. Snowflake is guiding for around 60% growth in product revenue against the tough compare from a year ago with a 2% operating margin. So like every company, the reaction of the street is going to come down to how accurate or conservative the guide is from their CFO. Now, earlier this year, Snowflake acquired a company called Streamlit for around $800 million. Streamlit is an open source Python library and it makes it easier to build data apps with machine learning, obviously a huge trend. And like Snowflake, generally its focus is on simplifying the complex, in this case making data science easier to integrate into data apps that business people can use. So we were excited this summer in the July ETR survey to see that they added some nice data and pick on Streamlit, which we're showing here in comparison to Snowflake's core business on the left hand side. That's the data warehousing, the Streamlit pieces on the right hand side. And we show again net score over time from the previous survey for Snowflake's core database and data warehouse offering again on the left as compared to a Streamlit on the right. Snowflake's core product had 194 responses in the October, 22 survey, Streamlit had an end of 73, which is up from 52 in the July survey. So significant uptick of people responding that they're doing business in adopting Streamlit. That was pretty impressive to us. And it's hard to see, but the net scores stayed pretty constant for Streamlit at 51%. It was 52% I think in the previous quarter, well over that magic 40% mark. But when you blend it with Snowflake, it does sort of bring things down a little bit. Now there are two key points here. One is that the acquisition seems to have gained exposure right out of the gate as evidenced by the large number of responses. And two, the spending momentum. Again while it's lower than Snowflake overall, and when you blend it with Snowflake it does pull it down, it's very healthy and steady. Now let's do a little pure comparison with some of our favorite names in this space. This chart shows net score or spending velocity in the Y-axis, an overlap or presence, pervasiveness if you will, in the data set on the X-axis. That red dotted line again is that 40% highly elevated net score that we like to talk about. And that table inserted informs us as to how the companies are plotted, where the dots set up, the net score, the ins. And we're comparing a number of database players, although just a caution, Oracle includes all of Oracle including its apps. But we just put it in there for reference because it is the leader in database. Right off the bat, Snowflake jumps out with a net score of 64%. The 60% from the earlier chart, again included Streamlit. So you can see its core database, data warehouse business actually is higher than the total company average that we showed you before 'cause the Streamlit is blended in. So when you separate it out, Streamlit is right on top of data bricks. Isn't that ironic? Only Snowflake and Databricks in this selection of names are above the 40% level. You see Mongo and Couchbase, they know they're solid and Teradata cloud actually showing pretty well compared to some of the earlier survey results. Now let's isolate on the database data platform sector and see how that shapes up. And for this analysis, same XY dimensions, we've added the big giants, AWS and Microsoft and Google. And notice that those three plus Snowflake are just at or above the 40% line. Snowflake continues to lead by a significant margin in spending momentum and it keeps creeping to the right. That's that end that we talked about earlier. Now here's an interesting tidbit. Snowflake is often asked, and I've asked them myself many times, "How are you faring relative to AWS, Microsoft and Google, these big whales with Redshift and Synapse and Big Query?" And Snowflake has been telling folks that 80% of its business comes from AWS. And when Microsoft heard that, they said, "Whoa, wait a minute, Snowflake, let's partner up." 'Cause Microsoft is smart, and they understand that the market is enormous. And if they could do better with Snowflake, one, they may steal some business from AWS. And two, even if Snowflake is winning against some of the Microsoft database products, if it wins on Azure, Microsoft is going to sell more compute and more storage, more AI tools, more other stuff to these customers. Now AWS is really aggressive from a partnering standpoint with Snowflake. They're openly negotiating, not openly, but they're negotiating better prices. They're realizing that when it comes to data, the cheaper that you make the offering, the more people are going to consume. At scale economies and operating leverage are really powerful things at volume that kick in. Now Microsoft, they're coming along, they obviously get it, but Google is seemingly resistant to that type of go to market partnership. Rather than lean into Snowflake as a great partner Google's field force is kind of fighting fashion. Google itself at Cloud next heavily messaged what they call the open data cloud, which is a direct rip off of Snowflake. So what can we say about Google? They continue to be kind of behind the curve when it comes to go to market. Now just a brief aside on the competitive posture. I've seen Slootman, Frank Slootman, CEO of Snowflake in action with his prior companies and how he depositioned the competition. At Data Domain, he eviscerated a company called Avamar with their, what he called their expensive and slow post process architecture. I think he actually called it garbage, if I recall at one conference I heard him speak at. And that sort of destroyed BMC when he was at ServiceNow, kind of positioning them as the equivalent of the department of motor vehicles. And so it's interesting to hear how Snowflake openly talks about the data platforms of AWS, Microsoft, Google, and data bricks. I'll give you this sort of short bumper sticker. Redshift is just an on-prem database that AWS morphed to the cloud, which by the way is kind of true. They actually did a brilliant job of it, but it's basically a fact. Microsoft Excel, a collection of legacy databases, which also kind of morphed to run in the cloud. And even Big Query, which is considered cloud native by many if not most, is being positioned by Snowflake as originally an on-prem database to support Google's ad business, maybe. And data bricks is for those people smart enough to get it to Berkeley that love complexity. And now Snowflake doesn't, they don't mention Berkeley as far as I know. That's my addition. But you get the point. And the interesting thing about Databricks and Snowflake is a while ago in the cube I said that there was a new workload type emerging around data where you have AWS cloud, Snowflake obviously for the cloud database and Databricks data for the data science and EML, you bring those things together and there's this new workload emerging that's going to be very powerful in the future. And it's interesting to see now the aspirations of all three of these platforms are colliding. That's quite a dynamic, especially when you see both Snowflake and Databricks putting venture money and getting their hooks into the loyalties of the same companies like DBT labs and Calibra. Anyway, Snowflake's posture is that we are the pioneer in cloud native data warehouse, data sharing and now data apps. And our platform is designed for business people that want simplicity. The other guys, yes, they're formidable, but we Snowflake have an architectural lead and of course we run in multiple clouds. So it's pretty strong positioning or depositioning, you have to admit. Now I'm not sure I agree with the big query knockoffs completely. I think that's a bit of a stretch, but snowflake, as we see in the ETR survey data is winning. So in thinking about the longer term future, let's talk about what's different with Snowflake, where it's headed and what the opportunities are for the company. Snowflake put itself on the map by focusing on simplifying data analytics. What's interesting about that is the company's founders are as you probably know from Oracle. And rather than focusing on transactional data, which is Oracle's sweet spot, the stuff they worked on when they were at Oracle, the founder said, "We're going to go somewhere else. We're going to attack the data warehousing problem and the data analytics problem." And they completely re-imagined the database and how it could be applied to solve those challenges and reimagine what was possible if you had virtually unlimited compute and storage capacity. And of course Snowflake became famous for separating the compute from storage and being able to completely shut down compute so you didn't have to pay for it when you're not using it. And the ability to have multiple clusters hit the same data without making endless copies and a consumption/cloud pricing model. And then of course everyone on the planet realized, "Wow, that's a pretty good idea." Every venture capitalist in Silicon Valley has been funding companies to copy that move. And that today has pretty much become mainstream in table stakes. But I would argue that Snowflake not only had the lead, but when you look at how others are approaching this problem, it's not necessarily as clean and as elegant. Some of the startups, the early startups I think get it and maybe had an advantage of starting later, which can be a disadvantage too. But AWS is a good example of what I'm saying here. Is its version of separating compute from storage was an afterthought and it's good, it's... Given what they had it was actually quite clever and customers like it, but it's more of a, "Okay, we're going to tier to storage to lower cost, we're going to sort of dial down the compute not completely, we're not going to shut it off, we're going to minimize the compute required." It's really not true as separation is like for instance Snowflake has. But having said that, we're talking about competitors with lots of resources and cohort offerings. And so I don't want to make this necessarily all about the product, but all things being equal architecture matters, okay? So that's the cloud S-curve, the first one we're showing. Snowflake's still on that S-curve, and in and of itself it's got legs, but it's not what's going to power the company to 10 billion. The next S-curve we denote is the multi-cloud in the middle. And now while 80% of Snowflake's revenue is AWS, Microsoft is ramping up and Google, well, we'll see. But the interesting part of that curve is data sharing, and this idea of data clean rooms. I mean it really should be called the data sharing curve, but I have my reasons for calling it multi-cloud. And this is all about network effects and data gravity, and you're seeing this play out today, especially in industries like financial services and healthcare and government that are highly regulated verticals where folks are super paranoid about compliance. There not going to share data if they're going to get sued for it, if they're going to be in the front page of the Wall Street Journal for some kind of privacy breach. And what Snowflake has done is said, "Put all the data in our cloud." Now, of course now that triggers a lot of people because it's a walled garden, okay? It is. That's the trade off. It's not the Wild West, it's not Windows, it's Mac, it's more controlled. But the idea is that as different parts of the organization or even partners begin to share data that they need, it's got to be governed, it's got to be secure, it's got to be compliant, it's got to be trusted. So Snowflake introduced the idea of, they call these things stable edges. I think that's the term that they use. And they track a metric around stable edges. And so a stable edge, or think of it as a persistent edge is an ongoing relationship between two parties that last for some period of time, more than a month. It's not just a one shot deal, one a done type of, "Oh guys shared it for a day, done." It sent you an FTP, it's done. No, it's got to have trajectory over time. Four weeks or six weeks or some period of time that's meaningful. And that metric is growing. Now I think sort of a different metric that they track. I think around 20% of Snowflake customers are actively sharing data today and then they track the number of those edge relationships that exist. So that's something that's unique. Because again, most data sharing is all about making copies of data. That's great for storage companies, it's bad for auditors, and it's bad for compliance officers. And that trend is just starting out, that middle S-curve, it's going to kind of hit the base of that steep part of the S-curve and it's going to have legs through this decade we think. And then finally the third wave that we show here is what we call super cloud. That's why I called it multi-cloud before, so it could invoke super cloud. The idea that you've built a PAS layer that is purpose built for a specific objective, and in this case it's building data apps that are cloud native, shareable and governed. And is a long-term trend that's going to take some time to develop. I mean, application development platforms can take five to 10 years to mature and gain significant adoption, but this one's unique. This is a critical play for Snowflake. If it's going to compete with the big cloud players, it has to have an app development framework like Snowpark. It has to accommodate new data types like transactional data. That's why it announced this thing called UniStore last June, Snowflake a summit. And the pattern that's forming here is Snowflake is building layer upon layer with its architecture at the core. It's not currently anyway, it's not going out and saying, "All right, we're going to buy a company that's got to another billion dollars in revenue and that's how we're going to get to 10 billion." So it's not buying its way into new markets through revenue. It's actually buying smaller companies that can complement Snowflake and that it can turn into revenue for growth that fit in to the data cloud. Now as to the 10 billion by fiscal year 28, is that achievable? That's the question. Yeah, I think so. Would the momentum resources go to market product and management prowess that Snowflake has? Yes, it's definitely achievable. And one could argue to $10 billion is too conservative. Indeed, Snowflake CFO, Mike Scarpelli will fully admit his forecaster built on existing offerings. He's not including revenue as I understand it from all the new stuff that's in the pipeline because he doesn't know what it's going to look like. He doesn't know what the adoption is going to look like. He doesn't have data on that adoption, not just yet anyway. And now of course things can change quite dramatically. It's possible that is forecast for existing businesses don't materialize or competition picks them off or a company like Databricks actually is able in the longer term replicate the functionality of Snowflake with open source technologies, which would be a very competitive source of innovation. But in our view, there's plenty of room for growth, the market is enormous and the real key is, can and will Snowflake deliver on the promises of simplifying data? Of course we've heard this before from data warehouse, the data mars and data legs and master data management and ETLs and data movers and data copiers and Hadoop and a raft of technologies that have not lived up to expectations. And we've also, by the way, seen some tremendous successes in the software business with the likes of ServiceNow and Salesforce. So will Snowflake be the next great software name and hit that 10 billion magic mark? I think so. Let's reconnect in 2028 and see. Okay, we'll leave it there today. I want to thank Chip Simonton for his input to today's episode. Thanks to Alex Myerson who's on production and manages the podcast. Ken Schiffman as well. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hove is our Editor in Chief over at Silicon Angle. He does some great editing for us. Check it out for all the news. Remember all these episodes are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me to get in touch David.vallante@siliconangle.com. DM me @dvellante or comment on our LinkedIn post. And please do check out etr.ai, they've got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, thanks for listening and we'll see you next time on breaking analysis. (upbeat music)

>>From the Cube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr. This is breaking analysis with Dave Ante. >>Have you ever been driving on the highway and traffic suddenly slows way down and then after a little while it picks up again and you're cruising along and you're thinking, Okay, hey, that was weird. But it's clear sailing now. Off we go, only to find out in a bit that the traffic is building up ahead again, forcing you to pump the brakes as the traffic pattern ebbs and flows well. Welcome to the Seesaw economy. The fed induced fire that prompted an unprecedented rally in tech is being purposefully extinguished now by that same fed. And virtually every sector of the tech industry is having to reset its expectations, including the cloud segment. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by etr. In this breaking analysis will review the implications of the earnings announcements from the big three cloud players, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google who announced this week. >>And we'll update you on our quarterly IAS forecast and share the latest from ETR with a focus on cloud computing. Now, before we get into the new data, we wanna review something we shared with you on October 14th, just a couple weeks back, this is sort of a, we told you it was coming slide. It's an XY graph that shows ET R'S proprietary net score methodology on the vertical axis. That's a measure of spending momentum, spending velocity, and an overlap or presence in the dataset that's on the X axis. That's really a measure of pervasiveness. In the survey, the table, you see that table insert there that shows Wiki Bond's Q2 estimates of IAS revenue for the big four hyperscalers with their year on year growth rates. Now we told you at the time, this is data from the July TW 22 ETR survey and the ETR hadn't released its October survey results at that time. >>This was just a couple weeks ago. And while we couldn't share the specific data from the October survey, we were able to get a glimpse and we depicted the slowdown that we saw in the October data with those dotted arrows kind of down into the right, we said at the time that we were seeing and across the board slowdown even for the big three cloud vendors. Now, fast forward to this past week and we saw earnings releases from Alphabet, Microsoft, and just last night Amazon. Now you may be thinking, okay, big deal. The ETR survey data didn't really tell us anything we didn't already know. But judging from the negative reaction in the stock market to these earnings announcements, the degree of softness surprised a lot of investors. Now, at the time we didn't update our forecast, it doesn't make sense for us to do that when we're that close to earning season. >>And now that all the big three ha with all the big four with the exception of Alibaba have announced we've, we've updated. And so here's that data. This chart lays out our view of the IS and PAs worldwide revenue. Basically it's cloud infrastructure with an attempt to exclude any SaaS revenue so we can make an apples to apples comparison across all the clouds. Now the reason that actual is in quotes is because Microsoft and Google don't report IAS revenue, but they do give us clues and kind of directional commentary, which we then triangulate with other data that we have from the channel and ETR surveys and just our own intelligence. Now the second column there after the vendor name shows our previous estimates for q3, and then next to that we show our actuals. Same with the growth rates. And then we round out the chart with that lighter blue color highlights, the full year estimates for revenue and growth. >>So the key takeaways are that we shaved about $4 billion in revenue and roughly 300 basis points of growth off of our full year estimates. AWS had a strong July but exited Q3 in the mid 20% growth rate year over year. So we're using that guidance, you know, for our Q4 estimates. Azure came in below our earlier estimates, but Google actually exceeded our expectations. Now the compression in the numbers is in our view of function of the macro demand climate, we've made every attempt to adjust for constant currency. So FX should not be a factor in this data, but it's sure you know that that ma the the, the currency effects are weighing on those companies income statements. And so look, this is the fundamental dynamic of a cloud model where you can dial down consumption when you need to and dial it up when you need to. >>Now you may be thinking that many big cloud customers have a committed level of spending in order to get better discounts. And that's true. But what's happening we think is they'll reallocate that spend toward, let's say for example, lower cost storage tiers or they may take advantage of better price performance processors like Graviton for example. That is a clear trend that we're seeing and smaller companies that were perhaps paying by the drink just on demand, they're moving to reserve instance models to lower their monthly bill. So instead of taking the easy way out and just spending more companies are reallocating their reserve capacity toward lower cost. So those sort of lower cost services, so they're spending time and effort optimizing to get more for, for less whereas, or get more for the same is really how we should, should, should phrase it. Whereas during the pandemic, many companies were, you know, they perhaps were not as focused on doing that because business was booming and they had a response. >>So they just, you know, spend more dial it up. So in general, as they say, customers are are doing more with, with the same. Now let's look at the growth dynamic and spend some time on that. I think this is important. This data shows worldwide quarterly revenue growth rates back to Q1 2019 for the big four. So a couple of interesting things. The data tells us during the pandemic, you saw both AWS and Azure, but the law of large numbers and actually accelerate growth. AWS especially saw progressively increasing growth rates throughout 2021 for each quarter. Now that trend, as you can see is reversed in 2022 for aws. Now we saw Azure come down a bit, but it's still in the low forties in terms of percentage growth. While Google actually saw an uptick in growth this last quarter for GCP by our estimates as GCP is becoming an increasingly large portion of Google's overall cloud business. >>Now, unfortunately Google Cloud continues to lose north of 850 million per quarter, whereas AWS and Azure are profitable cloud businesses even though Alibaba is suffering its woes from China. And we'll see how they come in when they report in mid-November. The overall hyperscale market grew at 32% in Q3 in terms of worldwide revenue. So the slowdown isn't due to the repatriation or competition from on-prem vendors in our view, it's a macro related trend. And cloud will continue to significantly outperform other sectors despite its massive size. You know, on the repatriation point, it just still doesn't show up in the data. The A 16 Z article from Sarah Wong and Martin Martin Kasa claiming that repatriation was inevitable as a means to lower cost of good sold for SaaS companies. You know, while that was thought provoking, it hasn't shown up in the numbers. And if you read the financial statements of both AWS and its partners like Snowflake and you dig into the, to the, to the quarterly reports, you'll see little notes and comments with their ongoing negotiations to lower cloud costs for customers. >>AWS and no doubt execs at Azure and GCP understand that the lifetime value of a customer is worth much more than near term gross margin. And you can expect the cloud vendors to strike a balance between profitability, near term profitability anyway and customer attention. Now, even though Google Cloud platform saw accelerated growth, we need to put that in context for you. So GCP, by our estimate, has now crossed over the $3 billion for quarter market actually did so last quarter, but its growth rate accelerated to 42% this quarter. And so that's a good sign in our view. But let's do a quick little comparison with when AWS and Azure crossed the $3 billion mark and compare their growth rates at the time. So if you go back to to Q2 2016, as we're showing in this chart, that's around the time that AWS hit 3 billion per quarter and at the same time was growing at 58%. >>Azure by our estimates crossed that mark in Q4 2018 and at that time was growing at 67%. Again, compare that to Google's 42%. So one would expect Google's growth rate would be higher than its competitors at this point in the MO in the maturity of its cloud, which it's, you know, it's really not when you compared to to Azure. I mean they're kind of con, you know, comparable now but today, but, but you'll go back, you know, to that $3 billion mark. But more so looking at history, you'd like to see its growth rate at this point of a maturity model at least over 50%, which we don't believe it is. And one other point on this topic, you know, my business friend Matt Baker from Dell often says it's not a zero sum game, meaning there's plenty of opportunity exists to build value on top of hyperscalers. >>And I would totally agree it's not a dollar for dollar swap if you can continue to innovate. But history will show that the first company in makes the most money. Number two can do really well and number three tends to break even. Now maybe cloud is different because you have Microsoft software estate and the power behind that and that's driving its IAS business and Google ads are funding technology buildouts for, for for Google and gcp. So you know, we'll see how that plays out. But right now by this one measurement, Google is four years behind Microsoft in six years behind aws. Now to the point that cloud will continue to outpace other markets, let's, let's break this down a bit in spending terms and see why this claim holds water. This is data from ET r's latest October survey that shows the granularity of its net score or spending velocity metric. >>The lime green is new adoptions, so they're adding the platform, the forest green is spending more 6% or more. The gray bars spending is flat plus or minus, you know, 5%. The pinkish colors represent spending less down 6% or worse. And the bright red shows defections or churn of the platform. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get what's called net score, which is that blue dot that you can see on each of the bars. So what you see in the table insert is that all three have net scores above 40%, which is a highly elevated measure. Microsoft's net scores above 60% AWS well into the fifties and GCP in the mid forties. So all good. Now what's happening with all three is more customers are keep keeping their spending flat. So a higher percentage of customers are saying, our spending is now flat than it was in previous quarters and that's what's accounting for the compression. >>But the churn of all three, even gcp, which we reported, you know, last quarter from last quarter survey was was five x. The other two is actually very low in the single digits. So that might have been an anomaly. So that's a very good sign in our view. You know, again, customers aren't repatriating in droves, it's just not a trend that we would bet on, maybe makes for a FUD or you know, good marketing head, but it's just not a big deal. And you can't help but be impressed with both Microsoft and AWS's performance in the survey. And as we mentioned before, these companies aren't going to give up customers to try and preserve a little bit of gross margin. They'll do what it takes to keep people on their platforms cuz they'll make up for it over time with added services and improved offerings. >>Now, once these companies acquire a customer, they'll be very aggressive about keeping them. So customers take note, you have negotiating leverage, so use it. Okay, let's look at another cut at the cloud market from the ETR data set. Here's the two dimensional view, again, it's back, it's one of our favorites. Net score or spending momentum plotted against presence. And the data set, that's the x axis net score on the, on the vertical axis, this is a view of et r's cloud computing sector sector. You can see we put that magic 40% dotted red line in the table showing and, and then that the table inserts shows how the data are plotted with net score against presence. I e n in the survey, notably only the big three are above the 40% line of the names that we're showing here. The oth there, there are others. >>I mean if you put Snowflake on there, it'd be higher than any of these names, but we'll dig into that name in a later breaking analysis episode. Now this is just another way of quantifying the dominance of AWS and Azure, not only relative to Google, but the other cloud platforms out there. So we've, we've taken the opportunity here to plot IBM and Oracle, which both own a public cloud. Their performance is largely a reflection of them migrating their install bases to their respective public clouds and or hybrid clouds. And you know, that's fine, they're in the game. That's a point that we've made, you know, a number of times they're able to make it through the cloud, not whole and they at least have one, but they simply don't have the business momentum of AWS and Azure, which is actually quite impressive because AWS and Azure are now as large or larger than IBM and Oracle. >>And to show this type of continued growth that that that Azure and AWS show at their size is quite remarkable and customers are starting to recognize the viability of on-prem hi, you know, hybrid clouds like HPE GreenLake and Dell's apex. You know, you may say, well that's not cloud, but if the customer thinks it is and it was reporting in the survey that it is, we're gonna continue to report this view. You know, I don't know what's happening with H P E, They had a big down tick this quarter and I, and I don't read too much into that because their end is still pretty small at 53. So big fluctuations are not uncommon with those types of smaller ends, but it's over 50. So, you know, we did notice a a a negative within a giant public and private sector, which is often a, a bellwether giant public private is big public companies and large private companies like, like a Mars for example. >>So it, you know, it looks like for HPE it could be an outlier. We saw within the Fortune 1000 HPE E'S cloud looked actually really good and it had good spending momentum in that sector. When you di dig into the industry data within ETR dataset, obviously we're not showing that here, but we'll continue to monitor that. Okay, so where's this Leave us. Well look, this is really a tactical story of currency and macro headwinds as you can see. You know, we've laid out some of the points on this slide. The action in the stock market today, which is Friday after some of the soft earnings reports is really robust. You know, we'll see how it ends up in the day. So maybe this is a sign that the worst is over, but we don't think so. The visibility from tech companies is murky right now as most are guiding down, which indicates that their conservative outlook last quarter was still too optimistic. >>But as it relates to cloud, that platform is not going anywhere anytime soon. Sure, there are potential disruptors on the horizon, especially at the edge, but we're still a long ways off from, from the possibility that a new economic model emerges from the edge to disrupt the cloud and the opportunities in the cloud remain strong. I mean, what other path is there? Really private cloud. It was kind of a bandaid until the on-prem guys could get their a as a service models rolled out, which is just now happening. The hybrid thing is real, but it's, you know, defensive for the incumbents until they can get their super cloud investments going. Super cloud implying, capturing value above the hyperscaler CapEx, you know, call it what you want multi what multi-cloud should have been, the metacloud, the Uber cloud, whatever you like. But there are opportunities to play offense and that's clearly happening in the cloud ecosystem with the likes of Snowflake, Mongo, Hashi Corp. >>Hammer Spaces is a startup in this area. Aviatrix, CrowdStrike, Zeke Scaler, Okta, many, many more. And even the projects we see coming out of enterprise players like Dell, like with Project Alpine and what Pure Storage is doing along with a number of other of the backup vendors. So Q4 should be really interesting, but the real story is the investments that that companies are making now to leverage the cloud for digital transformations will be paying off down the road. This is not 1999. We had, you know, May might have had some good ideas and admittedly at a lot of bad ones too, but you didn't have the infrastructure to service customers at a low enough cost like you do today. The cloud is that infrastructure and so far it's been transformative, but it's likely the best is yet to come. Okay, let's call this a rap. >>Many thanks to Alex Morrison who does production and manages the podcast. Also Can Schiffman is our newest edition to the Boston Studio. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight helped get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Ho is our editor in chief over@siliconangle.com, who does some wonderful editing for us. Thank you. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search breaking analysis podcast. I publish each week on wiki bond.com at silicon angle.com. And you can email me at David dot valante@siliconangle.com or DM me at Dante or comment on my LinkedIn posts. And please do checkout etr.ai. They got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Valante for the Cube Insights powered by etr. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on breaking analysis.

>>Oracle continues to enhance my sequel Heatwave at a very rapid pace. The company is now in its fourth major release since the original announcement in December 2020. 1 of the main criticisms of my sequel, Heatwave, is that it only runs on O. C I. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and as a lock in to Oracle's Cloud. Oracle recently announced that heat wave is now going to be available in AWS Cloud and it announced its intent to bring my sequel Heatwave to Azure. So my secret heatwave on AWS is a significant TAM expansion move for Oracle because of the momentum AWS Cloud continues to show. And evidently the Heatwave Engineering team has taken the development effort from O. C I. And is bringing that to A W S with a number of enhancements that we're gonna dig into today is senior vice president. My sequel Heatwave at Oracle is back with me on a cube conversation to discuss the latest heatwave news, and we're eager to hear any benchmarks relative to a W S or any others. Nippon has been leading the Heatwave engineering team for over 10 years and there's over 100 and 85 patents and database technology. Welcome back to the show and good to see you. >>Thank you. Very happy to be back. >>Now for those who might not have kept up with the news, uh, to kick things off, give us an overview of my sequel, Heatwave and its evolution. So far, >>so my sequel, Heat Wave, is a fully managed my secret database service offering from Oracle. Traditionally, my secret has been designed and optimised for transaction processing. So customers of my sequel then they had to run analytics or when they had to run machine learning, they would extract the data out of my sequel into some other database for doing. Unlike processing or machine learning processing my sequel, Heat provides all these capabilities built in to a single database service, which is my sequel. He'd fake So customers of my sequel don't need to move the data out with the same database. They can run transaction processing and predicts mixed workloads, machine learning, all with a very, very good performance in very good price performance. Furthermore, one of the design points of heat wave is is a scale out architecture, so the system continues to scale and performed very well, even when customers have very large late assignments. >>So we've seen some interesting moves by Oracle lately. The collaboration with Azure we've we've covered that pretty extensively. What was the impetus here for bringing my sequel Heatwave onto the AWS cloud? What were the drivers that you considered? >>So one of the observations is that a very large percentage of users of my sequel Heatwave, our AWS users who are migrating of Aurora or so already we see that a good percentage of my secret history of customers are migrating from GWS. However, there are some AWS customers who are still not able to migrate the O. C. I to my secret heat wave. And the reason is because of, um, exorbitant cost, which was charges. So in order to migrate the workload from AWS to go see, I digress. Charges are very high fees which becomes prohibitive for the customer or the second example we have seen is that the latency of practising a database which is outside of AWS is very high. So there's a class of customers who would like to get the benefits of my secret heatwave but were unable to do so and with this support of my secret trip inside of AWS, these customers can now get all the grease of the benefits of my secret he trip without having to pay the high fees or without having to suffer with the poorly agency, which is because of the ws architecture. >>Okay, so you're basically meeting the customer's where they are. So was this a straightforward lifted shift from from Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to AWS? >>No, it is not because one of the design girls we have with my sequel, Heatwave is that we want to provide our customers with the best price performance regardless of the cloud. So when we decided to offer my sequel, he headed west. Um, we have optimised my sequel Heatwave on it as well. So one of the things to point out is that this is a service with the data plane control plane and the console are natively running on AWS. And the benefits of doing so is that now we can optimise my sequel Heatwave for the E. W s architecture. In addition to that, we have also announced a bunch of new capabilities as a part of the service which will also be available to the my secret history of customers and our CI, But we just announced them and we're offering them as a part of my secret history of offering on AWS. >>So I just want to make sure I understand that it's not like you just wrapped your stack in a container and stuck it into a W s to be hosted. You're saying you're actually taking advantage of the capabilities of the AWS cloud natively? And I think you've made some other enhancements as well that you're alluding to. Can you maybe, uh, elucidate on those? Sure. >>So for status, um, we have taken the mind sequel Heatwave code and we have optimised for the It was infrastructure with its computer network. And as a result, customers get very good performance and price performance. Uh, with my secret he trade in AWS. That's one performance. Second thing is, we have designed new interactive counsel for the service, which means that customers can now provision there instances with the council. But in addition, they can also manage their schemas. They can. Then court is directly from the council. Autopilot is integrated. The council we have introduced performance monitoring, so a lot of capabilities which we have introduced as a part of the new counsel. The third thing is that we have added a bunch of new security features, uh, expose some of the security features which were part of the My Secret Enterprise edition as a part of the service, which gives customers now a choice of using these features to build more secure applications. And finally, we have extended my secret autopilot for a number of old gpus cases. In the past, my secret autopilot had a lot of capabilities for Benedict, and now we have augmented my secret autopilot to offer capabilities for elderly people. Includes as well. >>But there was something in your press release called Auto thread. Pooling says it provides higher and sustained throughput. High concerns concerns concurrency by determining Apple number of transactions, which should be executed. Uh, what is that all about? The auto thread pool? It seems pretty interesting. How does it affect performance? Can you help us understand that? >>Yes, and this is one of the capabilities of alluding to which we have added in my secret autopilot for transaction processing. So here is the basic idea. If you have a system where there's a large number of old EP transactions coming into it at a high degrees of concurrency in many of the existing systems of my sequel based systems, it can lead to a state where there are few transactions executing, but a bunch of them can get blocked with or a pilot tried pulling. What we basically do is we do workload aware admission control and what this does is it figures out, what's the right scheduling or all of these algorithms, so that either the transactions are executing or as soon as something frees up, they can start executing, so there's no transaction which is blocked. The advantage to the customer of this capability is twofold. A get significantly better throughput compared to service like Aurora at high levels of concurrency. So at high concurrency, for instance, uh, my secret because of this capability Uh oh, thread pulling offers up to 10 times higher compared to Aurora, that's one first benefit better throughput. The second advantage is that the true part of the system never drops, even at high levels of concurrency, whereas in the case of Aurora, the trooper goes up, but then, at high concurrency is, let's say, starting, uh, level of 500 or something. It depends upon the underlying shit they're using the troopers just dropping where it's with my secret heatwave. The truth will never drops. Now, the ramification for the customer is that if the truth is not gonna drop, the user can start off with a small shape, get the performance and be a show that even the workload increases. They will never get a performance, which is worse than what they're getting with lower levels of concurrency. So this let's leads to customers provisioning a shape which is just right for them. And if they need, they can, uh, go with the largest shape. But they don't like, you know, over pay. So those are the two benefits. Better performance and sustain, uh, regardless of the level of concurrency. >>So how do we quantify that? I know you've got some benchmarks. How can you share comparisons with other cloud databases especially interested in in Amazon's own databases are obviously very popular, and and are you publishing those again and get hub, as you have done in the past? Take us through the benchmarks. >>Sure, So benchmarks are important because that gives customers a sense of what performance to expect and what price performance to expect. So we have run a number of benchmarks. And yes, all these benchmarks are available on guitar for customers to take a look at. So we have performance results on all the three castle workloads, ol DB Analytics and Machine Learning. So let's start with the Rdp for Rdp and primarily because of the auto thread pulling feature. We show that for the IPCC for attended dataset at high levels of concurrency, heatwave offers up to 10 times better throughput and this performance is sustained, whereas in the case of Aurora, the performance really drops. So that's the first thing that, uh, tend to alibi. Sorry, 10 gigabytes. B B C c. I can come and see the performance are the throughput is 10 times better than Aurora for analytics. We have done a comparison of my secret heatwave in AWS and compared with Red Ship Snowflake Googled inquiry, we find that the price performance of my secret heatwave compared to read ship is seven times better. So my sequel, Heat Wave in AWS, provides seven times better price performance than red ship. That's a very, uh, interesting results to us. Which means that customers of Red Shift are really going to take the service seriously because they're gonna get seven times better price performance. And this is all running in a W s so compared. >>Okay, carry on. >>And then I was gonna say, compared to like, Snowflake, uh, in AWS offers 10 times better price performance. And compared to Google, ubiquity offers 12 times better price performance. And this is based on a four terabyte p PCH workload. Results are available on guitar, and then the third category is machine learning and for machine learning, uh, for training, the performance of my secret heatwave is 25 times faster compared to that shit. So all the three workloads we have benchmark's results, and all of these scripts are available on YouTube. >>Okay, so you're comparing, uh, my sequel Heatwave on AWS to Red Shift and snowflake on AWS. And you're comparing my sequel Heatwave on a W s too big query. Obviously running on on Google. Um, you know, one of the things Oracle is done in the past when you get the price performance and I've always tried to call fouls you're, like, double your price for running the oracle database. Uh, not Heatwave, but Oracle Database on a W s. And then you'll show how it's it's so much cheaper on on Oracle will be like Okay, come on. But they're not doing that here. You're basically taking my sequel Heatwave on a W s. I presume you're using the same pricing for whatever you see to whatever else you're using. Storage, um, reserved instances. That's apples to apples on A W s. And you have to obviously do some kind of mapping for for Google, for big query. Can you just verify that for me, >>we are being more than fair on two dimensions. The first thing is, when I'm talking about the price performance for analytics, right for, uh, with my secret heat rape, the cost I'm talking about from my secret heat rape is the cost of running transaction processing, analytics and machine learning. So it's a fully loaded cost for the case of my secret heatwave. There has been I'm talking about red ship when I'm talking about Snowflake. I'm just talking about the cost of these databases for running, and it's only it's not, including the source database, which may be more or some other database, right? So that's the first aspect that far, uh, trip. It's the cost for running all three kinds of workloads, whereas for the competition, it's only for running analytics. The second thing is that for these are those services whether it's like shit or snowflakes, That's right. We're talking about one year, fully paid up front cost, right? So that's what most of the customers would pay for. Many of the customers would pay that they will sign a one year contract and pay all the costs ahead of time because they get a discount. So we're using that price and the case of Snowflake. The costs were using is their standard edition of price, not the Enterprise edition price. So yes, uh, more than in this competitive. >>Yeah, I think that's an important point. I saw an analysis by Marx Tamer on Wiki Bond, where he was doing the TCO comparisons. And I mean, if you have to use two separate databases in two separate licences and you have to do et yelling and all the labour associated with that, that that's that's a big deal and you're not even including that aspect in in your comparison. So that's pretty impressive. To what do you attribute that? You know, given that unlike, oh, ci within the AWS cloud, you don't have as much control over the underlying hardware. >>So look hard, but is one aspect. Okay, so there are three things which give us this advantage. The first thing is, uh, we have designed hateful foreign scale out architecture. So we came up with new algorithms we have come up with, like, uh, one of the design points for heat wave is a massively partitioned architecture, which leads to a very high degree of parallelism. So that's a lot of hype. Each were built, So that's the first part. The second thing is that although we don't have control over the hardware, but the second design point for heat wave is that it is optimised for commodity cloud and the commodity infrastructure so we can have another guys, what to say? The computer we get, how much network bandwidth do we get? How much of, like objects to a brand that we get in here? W s. And we have tuned heat for that. That's the second point And the third thing is my secret autopilot, which provides machine learning based automation. So what it does is that has the users workload is running. It learns from it, it improves, uh, various premieres in the system. So the system keeps getting better as you learn more and more questions. And this is the third thing, uh, as a result of which we get a significant edge over the competition. >>Interesting. I mean, look, any I SV can go on any cloud and take advantage of it. And that's, uh I love it. We live in a new world. How about machine learning workloads? What? What did you see there in terms of performance and benchmarks? >>Right. So machine learning. We offer three capabilities training, which is fully automated, running in France and explanations. So one of the things which many of our customers told us coming from the enterprise is that explanations are very important to them because, uh, customers want to know that. Why did the the system, uh, choose a certain prediction? So we offer explanations for all models which have been derailed by. That's the first thing. Now, one of the interesting things about training is that training is usually the most expensive phase of machine learning. So we have spent a lot of time improving the performance of training. So we have a bunch of techniques which we have developed inside of Oracle to improve the training process. For instance, we have, uh, metal and proxy models, which really give us an advantage. We use adaptive sampling. We have, uh, invented in techniques for paralysing the hyper parameter search. So as a result of a lot of this work, our training is about 25 times faster than that ship them health and all the data is, uh, inside the database. All this processing is being done inside the database, so it's much faster. It is inside the database. And I want to point out that there is no additional charge for the history of customers because we're using the same cluster. You're not working in your service. So all of these machine learning capabilities are being offered at no additional charge inside the database and as a performance, which is significantly faster than that, >>are you taking advantage of or is there any, uh, need not need, but any advantage that you can get if two by exploiting things like gravity. John, we've talked about that a little bit in the past. Or trainee. Um, you just mentioned training so custom silicon that AWS is doing, you're taking advantage of that. Do you need to? Can you give us some insight >>there? So there are two things, right? We're always evaluating What are the choices we have from hybrid perspective? Obviously, for us to leverage is right and like all the things you mention about like we have considered them. But there are two things to consider. One is he is a memory system. So he favours a big is the dominant cost. The processor is a person of the cost, but memory is the dominant cost. So what we have evaluated and found is that the current shape which we are using is going to provide our customers with the best price performance. That's the first thing. The second thing is that there are opportunities at times when we can use a specialised processor for vaccinating the world for a bit. But then it becomes a matter of the cost of the customer. Advantage of our current architecture is on the same hardware. Customers are getting very good performance. Very good, energetic performance in a very good machine learning performance. If you will go with the specialised processor, it may. Actually, it's a machine learning, but then it's an additional cost with the customers we need to pay. So we are very sensitive to the customer's request, which is usually to provide very good performance at a very low cost. And we feel is that the current design we have as providing customers very good performance and very good price performance. >>So part of that is architectural. The memory intensive nature of of heat wave. The other is A W s pricing. If AWS pricing were to flip, it might make more sense for you to take advantage of something like like cranium. Okay, great. Thank you. And welcome back to the benchmarks benchmarks. Sometimes they're artificial right there. A car can go from 0 to 60 in two seconds. But I might not be able to experience that level of performance. Do you? Do you have any real world numbers from customers that have used my sequel Heatwave on A W s. And how they look at performance? >>Yes, absolutely so the my Secret service on the AWS. This has been in Vera for, like, since November, right? So we have a lot of customers who have tried the service. And what actually we have found is that many of these customers, um, planning to migrate from Aurora to my secret heat rape. And what they find is that the performance difference is actually much more pronounced than what I was talking about. Because with Aurora, the performance is actually much poorer compared to uh, like what I've talked about. So in some of these cases, the customers found improvement from 60 times, 240 times, right? So he travels 100 for 240 times faster. It was much less expensive. And the third thing, which is you know, a noteworthy is that customers don't need to change their applications. So if you ask the top three reasons why customers are migrating, it's because of this. No change to the application much faster, and it is cheaper. So in some cases, like Johnny Bites, what they found is that the performance of their applications for the complex storeys was about 60 to 90 times faster. Then we had 60 technologies. What they found is that the performance of heat we have compared to Aurora was 100 and 39 times faster. So, yes, we do have many such examples from real workloads from customers who have tried it. And all across what we find is if it offers better performance, lower cost and a single database such that it is compatible with all existing by sequel based applications and workloads. >>Really impressive. The analysts I talked to, they're all gaga over heatwave, and I can see why. Okay, last question. Maybe maybe two and one. Uh, what's next? In terms of new capabilities that customers are going to be able to leverage and any other clouds that you're thinking about? We talked about that upfront, but >>so in terms of the capabilities you have seen, like they have been, you know, non stop attending to the feedback from the customers in reacting to it. And also, we have been in a wedding like organically. So that's something which is gonna continue. So, yes, you can fully expect that people not dressed and continue to in a way and with respect to the other clouds. Yes, we are planning to support my sequel. He tripped on a show, and this is something that will be announced in the near future. Great. >>All right, Thank you. Really appreciate the the overview. Congratulations on the work. Really exciting news that you're moving my sequel Heatwave into other clouds. It's something that we've been expecting for some time. So it's great to see you guys, uh, making that move, and as always, great to have you on the Cube. >>Thank you for the opportunity. >>All right. And thank you for watching this special cube conversation. I'm Dave Volonte, and we'll see you next time.

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> After a two-year epic run in tech, 2022 has been an epically bad year. Through yesterday, The NASDAQ composite is down 30%. The S$P 500 is off 21%. And the Dow Jones Industrial average 16% down. And the poor holders at Bitcoin have had to endure a nearly 60% decline year to date. But judging by the attendance and enthusiasm, in major in-person tech events this spring. You'd never know that tech was in the tank. Moreover, walking around the streets of Las Vegas, where most tech conferences are held these days. One can't help but notice that the good folks of Main Street, don't seem the least bit concerned that the economy is headed for a recession. Hello, and welcome to this weeks Wiki Bond Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis we'll share our main takeaways from the first half of 2022. And talk about the outlook for tech going forward, and why despite some pretty concerning headwinds we remain sanguine about tech generally, but especially enterprise tech. Look, here's the bumper sticker on why many folks are really bearish at the moment. Of course, inflation is high, other than last year, the previous inflation high this century was in July of 2008, it was 5.6%. Inflation has proven to be very, very hard to tame. You got gas at $7 dollars a gallon. Energy prices they're not going to suddenly drop. Interest rates are climbing, which will eventually damage housing. Going to have that ripple effect, no doubt. We're seeing layoffs at companies like Tesla and the crypto names are also trimming staff. Workers, however are still in short supply. So wages are going up. Companies in retail are really struggling with the right inventory, and they can't even accurately guide on their earnings. We've seen a version of this movie before. Now, as it pertains to tech, Crawford Del Prete, who's the CEO of IDC explained this on theCUBE this very week. And I thought he did a really good job. He said the following, >> Matt, you have a great statistic that 80% of companies used COVID as their point to pivot into digital transformation. And to invest in a different way. And so what we saw now is that tech is now where I think companies need to focus. They need to invest in tech. They need to make people more productive with tech and it played out in the numbers. Now so this year what's fascinating is we're looking at two vastly different markets. We got gasoline at $7 a gallon. We've got that affecting food prices. Interesting fun fact recently it now costs over $1,000 to fill an 18 wheeler. All right, based on, I mean, this just kind of can't continue. So you think about it. >> Don't put the boat in the water. >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. Good luck if ya, yeah exactly. So a family has kind of this bag of money, and that bag of money goes up by maybe three, 4% every year, depending upon earnings. So that is sort of sloshing around. So if food and fuel and rent is taking up more, gadgets and consumer tech are not, you're going to use that iPhone a little longer. You're going to use that Android phone a little longer. You're going to use that TV a little longer. So consumer tech is getting crushed, really it's very, very, and you saw it immediately in ad spending. You've seen it in Meta, you've seen it in Facebook. Consumer tech is doing very, very, it is tough. Enterprise tech, we haven't been in the office for two and a half years. We haven't upgraded whether that be campus wifi, whether that be servers, whether that be commercial PCs as much as we would have. So enterprise tech, we're seeing double digit order rates. We're seeing strong, strong demand. We have combined that with a component shortage, and you're seeing some enterprise companies with a quarter of backlog, I mean that's really unheard of. >> And higher prices, which also profit. >> And therefore that drives up the prices. >> And this is a theme that we've heard this year at major tech events, they've really come roaring back. Last year, theCUBE had a huge presence at AWS Reinvent. The first Reinvent since 2019, it was really well attended. Now this was before the effects of the omicron variant, before they were really well understood. And in the first quarter of 2022, things were pretty quiet as far as tech events go But theCUBE'a been really busy this spring and early into the summer. We did 12 physical events as we're showing here in the slide. Coupa, did Women in Data Science at Stanford, Coupa Inspire was in Las Vegas. Now these are both smaller events, but they were well attended and beat expectations. San Francisco Summit, the AWS San Francisco Summit was a bit off, frankly 'cause of the COVID concerns. They were on the rise, then we hit Dell Tech World which was packed, it had probably around 7,000 attendees. Now Dockercon was virtual, but we decided to include it here because it was a huge global event with watch parties and many, many tens of thousands of people attending. Now the Red Hat Summit was really interesting. The choice that Red Hat made this year. It was purposefully scaled down and turned into a smaller VIP event in Boston at the Western, a couple thousand people only. It was very intimate with a much larger virtual presence. VeeamON was very well attended, not as large as previous VeeamON events, but again beat expectations. KubeCon and Cloud Native Con was really successful in Spain, Valencia, Spain. PagerDuty Summit was again a smaller intimate event in San Francisco. And then MongoDB World was at the new Javits Center and really well attended over the three day period. There were lots of developers there, lots of business people, lots of ecosystem partners. And then the Snowflake summit in Las Vegas, it was the most vibrant from the standpoint of the ecosystem with nearly 10,000 attendees. And I'll come back to that in a moment. Amazon re:Mars is the Amazon AI robotic event, it's smaller but very, very cool, a lot of innovation. And just last week we were at HPE Discover. They had around 8,000 people attending which was really good. Now I've been to over a dozen HPE or HPE Discover events, within Europe and the United States over the past decade. And this was by far the most vibrant, lot of action. HPE had a little spring in its step because the company's much more focused now but people was really well attended and people were excited to be there, not only to be back at physical events, but also to hear about some of the new innovations that are coming and HPE has a long way to go in terms of building out that ecosystem, but it's starting to form. So we saw that last week. So tech events are back, but they are smaller. And of course now a virtual overlay, they're hybrid. And just to give you some context, theCUBE did, as I said 12 physical events in the first half of 2022. Just to compare that in 2019, through June of that year we had done 35 physical events. Yeah, 35. And what's perhaps more interesting is we had our largest first half ever in our 12 year history because we're doing so much hybrid and virtual to compliment the physical. So that's the new format is CUBE plus digital or sometimes just digital but that's really what's happening in our business. So I think it's a reflection of what's happening in the broader tech community. So everyone's still trying to figure that out but it's clear that events are back and there's no replacing face to face. Or as I like to say, belly to belly, because deals are done at physical events. All these events we've been to, the sales people are so excited. They're saying we're closing business. Pipelines coming out of these events are much stronger, than they are out of the virtual events but the post virtual event continues to deliver that long tail effect. So that's not going to go away. The bottom line is hybrid is the new model. Okay let's look at some of the big themes that we've taken away from the first half of 2022. Now of course, this is all happening under the umbrella of digital transformation. I'm not going to talk about that too much, you've had plenty of DX Kool-Aid injected into your veins over the last 27 months. But one of the first observations I'll share is that the so-called big data ecosystem that was forming during the hoop and around, the hadoop infrastructure days and years. then remember it dispersed, right when the cloud came in and kind of you know, not wiped out but definitely dampened the hadoop enthusiasm for on-prem, the ecosystem dispersed, but now it's reforming. There are large pockets that are obviously seen in the various clouds. And we definitely see a ecosystem forming around MongoDB and the open source community gathering in the data bricks ecosystem. But the most notable momentum is within the Snowflake ecosystem. Snowflake is moving fast to win the day in the data ecosystem. They're providing a single platform that's bringing different data types together. Live data from systems of record, systems of engagement together with so-called systems of insight. These are converging and while others notably, Oracle are architecting for this new reality, Snowflake is leading with the ecosystem momentum and a new stack is emerging that comprises cloud infrastructure at the bottom layer. Data PaaS layer for app dev and is enabling an ecosystem of partners to build data products and data services that can be monetized. That's the key, that's the top of the stack. So let's dig into that further in a moment but you're seeing machine intelligence and data being driven into applications and the data and application stacks they're coming together to support the acceleration of physical into digital. It's happening right before our eyes in every industry. We're also seeing the evolution of cloud. It started with the SaaS-ification of the enterprise where organizations realized that they didn't have to run their own software on-prem and it made sense to move to SaaS for CRM or HR, certainly email and collaboration and certain parts of ERP and early IS was really about getting out of the data center infrastructure management business called that cloud 1.0, and then 2.0 was really about changing the operating model. And now we're seeing that operating model spill into on-prem workloads finally. We're talking about here about initiatives like HPE's Green Lake, which we heard a lot about last week at Discover and Dell's Apex, which we heard about in May, in Las Vegas. John Furrier had a really interesting observation that basically this is HPE's and Dell's version of outposts. And I found that interesting because outpost was kind of a wake up call in 2018 and a shot across the bow at the legacy enterprise infrastructure players. And they initially responded with these flexible financial schemes, but finally we're seeing real platforms emerge. Again, we saw this at Discover and at Dell Tech World, early implementations of the cloud operating model on-prem. I mean, honestly, you're seeing things like consoles and billing, similar to AWS circa 2014, but players like Dell and HPE they have a distinct advantage with respect to their customer bases, their service organizations, their very large portfolios, especially in the case of Dell and the fact that they have more mature stacks and knowhow to run mission critical enterprise applications on-prem. So John's comment was quite interesting that these firms are basically building their own version of outposts. Outposts obviously came into their wheelhouse and now they've finally responded. And this is setting up cloud 3.0 or Supercloud, as we like to call it, an abstraction layer, that sits above the clouds that serves as a unifying experience across a continuum of on-prem across clouds, whether it's AWS, Azure, or Google. And out to both the near and far edge, near edge being a Lowes or a Home Depot, but far edge could be space. And that edge again is fragmented. You've got the examples like the retail stores at the near edge. Outer space maybe is the far edge and IOT devices is perhaps the tiny edge. No one really knows how the tiny edge is going to play out but it's pretty clear that it's not going to comprise traditional X86 systems with a cool name tossed out to the edge. Rather, it's likely going to require a new low cost, low power, high performance architecture, most likely RM based that will enable things like realtime AI inferencing at that edge. Now we've talked about this a lot on Breaking Analysis, so I'm not going to double click on it. But suffice to say that it's very possible that new innovations are going to emerge from the tiny edge that could really disrupt the enterprise in terms of price performance. Okay, two other quick observations. One is that data protection is becoming a much closer cohort to the security stack where data immutability and air gaps and fast recovery are increasingly becoming a fundamental component of the security strategy to combat ransomware and recover from other potential hacks or disasters. And I got to say from our observation, Veeam is leading the pack here. It's now claiming the number one revenue spot in a statistical dead heat with the Dell's data protection business. That's according to Veeam, according to IDC. And so that space continues to be of interest. And finally, Broadcom's acquisition of Dell. It's going to have ripple effects throughout the enterprise technology business. And there of course, there are a lot of questions that remain, but the one other thing that John Furrier and I were discussing last night John looked at me and said, "Dave imagine if VMware runs better on Broadcom components and OEMs that use Broadcom run VMware better, maybe Broadcom doesn't even have to raise prices on on VMware licenses. Maybe they'll just raise prices on the OEMs and let them raise prices to the end customer." Interesting thought, I think because Broadcom is so P&L focused that it's probably not going to be the prevailing model but we'll see what happens to some of the strategic projects rather like Monterey and Capitola and Thunder. We've talked a lot about project Monterey, the others we'll see if they can make the cut. That's one of the big concerns because it's how OEMs like the ones that are building their versions of outposts are going to compete with the cloud vendors, namely AWS in the future. I want to come back to the comment on the data stack for a moment that we were talking about earlier, we talked about how the big data ecosystem that was once coalescing around hadoop dispersed. Well, the data value chain is reforming and we think it looks something like this picture, where cloud infrastructure lives at the bottom. We've said many times the cloud is expanding and evolving. And if companies like Dell and HPE can truly build a super cloud infrastructure experience then they will be in a position to capture more of the data value. If not, then it's going to go to the cloud players. And there's a live data layer that is increasingly being converged into platforms that not only simplify the movement in ELTing of data but also allow organizations to compress the time to value. Now there's a layer above that, we sometimes call it the super PaaS layer if you will, that must comprise open source tooling, partners are going to write applications and leverage platform APIs and build data products and services that can be monetized at the top of the stack. So when you observe the battle for the data future it's unlikely that any one company is going to be able to do this all on their own, which is why I often joke that the 2020s version of a sweaty Steve Bomber running around the stage, screaming, developers, developers developers, and getting the whole audience into it is now about ecosystem ecosystem ecosystem. Because when you need to fill gaps and accelerate features and provide optionality a list of capabilities on the left hand side of this chart, that's going to come from a variety of different companies and places, we're talking about catalogs and AI tools and data science capabilities, data quality, governance tools and it should be of no surprise to followers of Breaking Analysis that on the right hand side of this chart we're including the four principles of data mesh, which of course were popularized by Zhamak Dehghani. So decentralized data ownership, data as products, self-serve platform and automated or computational governance. Now whether this vision becomes a reality via a proprietary platform like Snowflake or somehow is replicated by an open source remains to be seen but history generally shows that a defacto standard for more complex problems like this is often going to emerge prior to an open source alternative. And that would be where I would place my bets. Although even that proprietary platform has to include open source optionality. But it's not a winner take all market. It's plenty of room for multiple players and ecosystem innovators, but winner will definitely take more in my opinion. Okay, let's close with some ETR data that looks at some of those major platform plays who talk a lot about digital transformation and world changing impactful missions. And they have the resources really to compete. This is an XY graphic. It's a view that we often show, it's got net score on the vertical access. That's a measure of spending momentum, and overlap or presence in the ETR survey. That red, that's the horizontal access. The red dotted line at 40% indicates that the platform is among the highest in terms of spending velocity. Which is why I always point out how impressive that makes AWS and Azure because not only are they large on the horizontal axis, the spending momentum on those two platforms rivals even that of Snowflake which continues to lead all on the vertical access. Now, while Google has momentum, given its goals and resources, it's well behind the two leaders. We've added Service Now and Salesforce, two platform names that have become the next great software companies. Joining likes of Oracle, which we show here and SAP not shown along with IBM, you can see them on this chart. We've also plotted MongoDB, which we think has real momentum as a company generally but also with Atlas, it's managed cloud database as a service specifically and Red Hat with trying to become the standard for app dev in Kubernetes environments, which is the hottest trend right now in application development and application modernization. Everybody's doing something with Kubernetes and of course, Red Hat with OpenShift wants to make that a better experience than do it yourself. The DYI brings a lot more complexity. And finally, we've got HPE and Dell both of which we've talked about pretty extensively here and VMware and Cisco. Now Cisco is executing on its portfolio strategy. It's got a lot of diverse components to its company. And it's coming at the cloud of course from a networking and security perspective. And that's their position of strength. And VMware is a staple of the enterprise. Yes, there's some uncertainty with regards to the Broadcom acquisition, but one thing is clear vSphere isn't going anywhere. It's entrenched and will continue to run lots of IT for years to come because it's the best platform on the planet. Now, of course, these are just some of the players in the mix. We expect that numerous non-traditional technology companies this is important to emerge as new cloud players. We've put a lot of emphasis on the data ecosystem because to us that's really going to be the main spring of digital, i.e., a digital company is a data company and that means an ecosystem of data partners that can advance outcomes like better healthcare, faster drug discovery, less fraud, cleaner energy, autonomous vehicles that are safer, smarter, more efficient grids and factories, better government and virtually endless litany of societal improvements that can be addressed. And these companies will be building innovations on top of cloud platforms creating their own super clouds, if you will. And they'll come from non-traditional places, industries, finance that take their data, their software, their tooling bring them to their customers and run them on various clouds. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Myerson, who is on production and does the podcast for Breaking Analysis, Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they help get the word out. And Rob Hoofe is our editor and chief over at Silicon Angle who helps edit our posts. Remember all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me directly at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me at dvellante, or comment on my LinkedIn posts. And please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE's Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching be well. And we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (upbeat music)

>>Hi, this is Dave Volonte. We're winding down Day two of the Cubes coverage of Vim on 2022. We're here at the area in Las Vegas. Myself and Dave Nicholson had been going for two days. Everybody's excited about the VM on party tonight. It's It's always epic, and, uh, it's a great show in terms of its energy. Danny Allen is here. He's cto of in his back. He gave the keynote this morning. I say, Danny, you know, you look pretty good up there with two hours of sleep. I >>had three. >>Look, don't look that good, but your energy was very high. And I got to tell you the story you told was amazing. It was one of the best keynotes I've ever seen. Even even the technology pieces were outstanding. But you weaving in that story was incredible. I'm hoping that people will go back and and watch it. We probably don't have time to go into it, but wow. Um, can you give us the the one minute version of that >>long story? >>Sure. Yeah. I read a book back in 2013 about a ship that sank off Portsmouth, Maine, and I >>thought, I'm gonna go find that >>ship. And so it's a long, >>complicated process. Five >>years in the making. But we used data, and the data that found the ship was actually from 15 years earlier. >>And in 20 >>18, we found the bow of the ship. We found the stern of the ship, but what we were really trying to answer was torpedoed. Or did the boilers explode? Because >>the navy said the boilers exploded >>and two survivors said, No, it was torpedoed or there was a German U boat there. >>And so >>our goal was fine. The ship find the boiler. >>So in 20 >>19, Sorry, Uh, it was 2018. We found the bow and the stern. And then in 2019, we found both boilers perfectly intact. And in fact, the rear end of that torpedo wasn't much left >>of it, of course, but >>data found that wreck. And so it, um, it exonerated essentially any implication that somebody screwed >>up in >>the boiler system and the survivors or the Children of the survivors obviously appreciated >>that. I'm sure. Yes, Several >>outcomes to it. So the >>chief engineer was one >>of the 13 survivors, >>and he lived with the weight of this for 75 years. 49 sailors dead because of myself. But I had the opportunity of meeting some of the Children of the victims and also attending ceremonies. The families of those victims received purple hearts because they were killed due to enemy action. And then you actually knew how to do this. I wasn't aware you had experience finding Rex. You've >>discovered several of >>them prior to this one. But >>the interesting connection >>the reason why this keynote was so powerful as we're a >>team, it's a data conference. >>You connected that to data because you you went out and bought a How do you say this? Magnanimous magnetometer. Magnetometer, Magnetometer. I don't know what that >>is. And a side >>scan Sonar, Right? I got that right. That was >>easy. But >>then you know what this stuff is. And then you >>built the model >>tensorflow. You took all the data and you found anomalies. And then you went right to that spot. Found the >>wreck with 12 >>£1000 of dynamite, >>which made your heart >>beat. But >>then you found >>the boilers. That's incredible. And >>but the point was, >>this is data >>uh, let's see, >>a lot of years after, >>right? >>Yeah. Two sets of data were used. One was the original set of side scan sonar >>data by the historian >>who discovered there was a U boat in the area that was 15 years old. >>And then we used, of >>course, the wind and weather and wave pattern data that was 75 years old to figure out where the boiler should be because they knew that the ship had continued to float for eight minutes. And so you had to go back and determine the models of where should the boilers >>be if it exploded and the boilers >>dropped out and it floated along >>for eight minutes and then sank? Where was >>that data? >>It was was a scanned was an electronic was a paper. How did you get that data? So the original side scan sonar data was just hard >>drive >>data by the historian. >>I wish I could say he used them to >>back it up. But I don't know that I can say that. But he still had >>the data. 15 years later, the >>weather and >>wind and wave data, That was all public information, and we actually used that extensively. We find other wrecks. A lot of wrecks off Boston Sunken World War Two. So we were We were used to that model of tracking what happened. Wow. So, yes, imagine if that data weren't available >>and it >>probably shouldn't have been right by all rights. So now fast forward to 2022. We've got Let's talk about just a cloud >>data. I think you said a >>couple of 100 >>petabytes in the >>cloud 2019. 500 in, Uh, >>no. Yeah. In >>20 2200 and 42. Petabytes in 20 2500 Petabytes last year. And we've already done the same as 2020. So >>240 petabytes >>in Q one. I expect >>this year to move an exhibit of >>data into the public cloud. >>Okay, so you got all that data. Who knows what's in there, right? And if it's not protected, who's going to know in 50 60 7100 years? Right. So that was your tie in? Yes. To the to the importance of data protection, which was just really, really well done. Congratulations. Honestly, one of the best keynotes I've ever seen keynotes often really boring, But you did a great job again on two hours. Sleep. So much to unpack here. The other thing that really is. I mean, we can talk about the demos. We can talk about the announcements. Um, so? Well, yeah, Let's see. Salesforce. Uh, data protection is now public. I almost spilled the beans yesterday in the cube. Caught myself the version 12. Obviously, you guys gave a great demo showing the island >>cloud with I think it >>was just four minutes. It was super fast. Recovery in four minutes of data loss was so glad you didn't say zero minutes because that would have been a live demos which, Okay, which I appreciate and also think is crazy. So some really cool demos, Um, and some really cool features. So I have so much impact, but the the insights that you can provide through them it's VM one, uh, was actually something that I hadn't heard you talk about extensively in the past. That maybe I just missed it. But I wonder if you could talk about that layer and why it's critical differentiator for Wien. It's >>the hidden gem >>within the Wien portfolio because it knows about absolutely >>everything. >>And what determines the actions >>that we take is the >>context in which >>data is surviving. So in the context of security, which we are showing, we look for CPU utilisation, memory utilisation, data change rate. If you encrypt all of the data in a file server, it's going to blow up overnight. And so we're leveraging heuristics in their reporting. But even more than that, one of the things in Wien one people don't realise we have this concept of the intelligent diagnostics. It's machine learning, which we drive on our end and we push out as packages intervene one. There's up to 200 signatures, but it helps our customers find issues before they become issues. Okay, so I want to get into because I often time times, don't geek out with you. And don't take advantage of your your technical knowledge. And you've you've triggered a couple of things, >>especially when the >>analysts call you said it again today that >>modern >>data protection has meaning to you. We talked a little bit about this yesterday, but back in >>the days of >>virtualisation, you shunned agents >>and took a different >>approach because you were going for what was then >>modern. Then you >>went to bare metal cloud hybrid >>cloud containers. Super Cloud. Using the analyst meeting. You didn't use the table. Come on, say Super Cloud and then we'll talk about the edge. So I would like to know specifically if we can go back to Virtualised >>because I didn't know >>this exactly how you guys >>defined modern >>back then >>and then. Let's take that to modern today. >>So what do you >>do back then? And then we'll get into cloud and sure, So if you go back to and being started, everyone who's using agents, you'd instal something in the operating system. It would take 10% 15% of your CPU because it was collecting all the data and sending it outside of the machine when we went through a virtual environment. If you put an agent inside that machine, what happens is you would have 100 operating systems all on the same >>server, consuming >>resources from that hyper visor. And so he said, there's a better way of capturing the data instead of capturing the data inside the operating system. And by the way, managing thousands of agents is no fun. So What we did is we captured a snapshot of the image at the hyper visor level. And then over time, we just leverage changed block >>tracking from the hyper >>visor to determine what >>had changed. And so that was modern. Because no more >>managing agents >>there was no impact >>on the operating system, >>and it was a far more >>efficient way to store >>data. You leverage CBT through the A P. Is that correct? Yeah. We used the VCR API >>for data protection. >>Okay, so I said this to Michael earlier. Fast forward to today. Your your your data protection competitors aren't as fat, dumb and happy as they used to be, so they can do things in containers, containers. And we talked about that. So now let's talk about Cloud. What's different about cloud data protection? What defines modern data protection? And where are the innovations that you're providing? >>Let me do one step in >>between those because one of the things that happened between hypervisors and Cloud was >>offline. The capture of the data >>to the storage system because >>even better than doing it >>at the hyper visor clusters >>do it on the storage >>array because that can capture the >>data instantly. Right? So as we go to the cloud, we want to do the same thing. Except we don't have access to either the hyper visor or the storage system. But what they do provide is an API. So we can use the API to capture all of the blocks, all of the data, all of the changes on that particular operating system. Now, here's where we've kind of gone full circle on a hyper >>visor. You can use the V >>sphere agent to reach into the operating system to do >>things like application consistency. What we've done modern data protection is create specific cloud agents that say Forget >>about the block changes. Make sure that I have application consistency inside that cloud operating >>system. Even though you don't have access to the hyper visor of the storage, >>you're still getting the >>operating system consistency >>while getting the really >>fast capture of data. So that gets into you talking on stage about how synapse don't equal data protection. I think you just explained it, but explain why, but let me highlight something that VM does that is important. We manage both snapshots and back up because if you can recover from your storage array >>snapshot. That is the best >>possible thing to recover from right, But we don't. So we manage both the snapshots and we converted >>into the VM portable >>data format. And here's where the super cloud comes into play because if I can convert it into the VM portable data format, I can move >>that OS >>anywhere. I can move it from >>physical to virtual to cloud >>to another cloud back to virtual. I can put it back on physical if I want to. It actually abstracts >>the cloud >>layer. There are things >>that we do when we go >>between clouds. Some use bio, >>some use, um, fee. >>But we have the data in backup format, not snapshot format. That's theirs. But we have been in backup format that we can move >>around and abstract >>workloads across. All of the infrastructure in your >>catalogue is control >>of that. Is that Is >>that right? That is about >>that 100%. And you know what's interesting about our catalogue? Dave. The catalogue is inside the backup, and so historically, one of the problems with backup is that you had a separate catalogue and if it ever got corrupted. All of your >>data is meaningless >>because the catalogue is inside >>the backup >>for that unique VM or that unique instance, you can move it anywhere and power it on. That's why people said were >>so reliable. As long >>as you have the backup file, you can delete our >>software. You can >>still get the data back, so I love this fast paced so that >>enables >>what I call Super Cloud we now call Super Cloud >>because now >>take that to the edge. >>If I want to go to the edge, I presume you can extend that. And I also presume the containers play a role there. Yes, so here's what's interesting about the edge to things on the edge. You don't want to have any state if you can help it, >>and so >>containers help with that. You can have stateless environment, some >>persistent data storage, >>but we not only >>provide the portability >>in operating systems. We also do this for containers, >>and that's >>true if you go to the cloud and you're using SE CKs >>with relational >>database service is already >>asked for the persistent data. >>Later, we can pick that up and move it to G K E or move it to open shift >>on premises. And >>so that's why I call this the super cloud. We have all of this data. Actually, I think you termed the term super thank you for I'm looking for confirmation from a technologist that it's technically feasible. It >>is technically feasible, >>and you can do it today and that's a I think it's a winning strategy. Personally, Will there be >>such a thing as edge Native? You know, there's cloud native. Will there be edge native new architectures, new ways of doing things, new workloads use cases? We talk about hardware, new hardware, architectures, arm based stuff that are going to change everything to edge Native Yes and no. There's going to be small tweaks that make it better for the edge. You're gonna see a lot of iron at the edge, obviously for power consumption purposes, and you're also going to see different constructs for networking. We're not going to use the traditional networking, probably a lot more software to find stuff. Same thing on the storage. They're going to try and >>minimise the persistent >>storage to the smallest footprint possible. But ultimately I think we're gonna see containers >>will lead >>the edge. We're seeing this now. We have a I probably can't name them, but we have a large retail organisation that is running containers in every single store with a small, persistent footprint of the point of sale and local data, but that what >>is running the actual >>system is containers, and it's completely ephemeral. So we were >>at Red Hat, I was saying >>earlier last week, and I'd say half 40 50% of the conversation was edge open shift, obviously >>playing a big role there. I >>know doing work with Rancher and Town Zoo. And so there's a lot of options there. >>But obviously, open shift has >>strong momentum in the >>marketplace. >>I've been dominating. You want to chime in? No, I'm just No, >>I yeah, I know. Sometimes >>I'll sit here like a sponge, which isn't my job absorbing stuff. I'm just fascinated by the whole concept of of a >>of a portable format for data that encapsulates virtual machines and or instances that can live in the containerised world. And once you once you create that common denominator, that's really that's >>That's the secret sauce >>for what you're talking about is a super club and what's been fascinating to watch because I've been paying attention since the beginning. You go from simply V. M. F s and here it is. And by the way, the pitch to E. M. C. About buying VM ware. It was all about reducing servers to files that can be stored on storage arrays. All of a sudden, the light bulbs went off. We can store those things, and it just began. It became it became a marriage afterwards. But to watch that progression that you guys have gone from from that fundamental to all of the other areas where now you've created this common denominator layer has has been amazing. So my question is, What's the singer? What doesn't work? Where the holes. You don't want to look at it from a from a glass half empty perspective. What's the next opportunity? We've talked about edge, but what are the things that you need to fill in to make this truly ubiquitous? Well, there's a lot of services out there that we're not protecting. To be fair, right, we do. Microsoft 3 65. We announced sales for us, but there's a dozen other paths services that >>people are moving data >>into. And until >>we had data protection >>for the assassin path services, you know >>you have to figure out how >>to protect them. Now here's the kicker about >>those services. >>Most of them have the >>ability to dump date >>out. The trick is, do they have the A >>P? I is needed to put data >>back into it right, >>which is which is a >>gap. As an industry, we need to address this. I actually think we need a common >>framework for >>how to manage the >>export of data, but also the import of data not at a at a system level, but at an atomic level of the elements within those applications. >>So there are gaps >>there at the industry, but we'll fill them >>if you look on the >>infrastructure side. We've done a lot with containers and kubernetes. I think there's a next wave around server list. There's still servers and these micro services, but we're making things smaller and smaller and smaller, and there's going to be an essential need to protect those services as well. So modern data protection is something that's going to we're gonna need modern data protection five years from now, the modern will just be different. Do you ever see the day, Danny, where governance becomes an >>adjacency opportunity for >>you guys? It's clearly an opportunity even now if you look, we spent a lot of time talking about security and what you find is when organisations go, for example, of ransomware insurance or for compliance, they need to be able to prove that they have certifications or they have security or they have governance. We just saw transatlantic privacy >>packed only >>to be able to prove what type of data they're collecting. Where are they storing it? Where are they allowed to recovered? And yes, those are very much adjacency is for our customers. They're trying to manage that data. >>So given that I mean, >>am I correct that architecturally you are, are you location agnostic? Right. We are a location agnostic, and you can actually tag data to allowable location. So the big trend that I think is happening is going to happen in in this >>this this decade. >>I think we're >>scratching the surface. Is this idea >>that, you know, leave data where it is, >>whether it's an S three >>bucket, it could be in an Oracle >>database. It could be in a snowflake database. It can be a data lake that's, you know, data, >>bricks or whatever, >>and it stays where >>it is. And it's just a note on the on the call of the data >>mesh. Not my term. Jim >>Octagon coined that term. The >>problem with that, and it puts data in the hands of closer to the domain experts. The problem with that >>scenario >>is you need self service infrastructure, which really doesn't exist today anyway. But it's coming, and the big problem is Federated >>computational >>governance. How do I automate that governance so that the people who should have access to that it can have access to that data? That, to me, seems to be an adjacency. It doesn't exist except in >>a proprietary >>platform. Today. There needs to be a horizontal >>layer >>that is more open than anybody >>can use. And I >>would think that's a perfect opportunity for you guys. Just strategically it is. There's no question, and I would argue, Dave, that it's actually >>valuable to take snapshots and to keep the data out at the edge wherever it happens to be collected. But then Federated centrally. It's why I get so excited by an exhibit of data this year going into the cloud, because then you're centralising the aggregation, and that's where you're really going to drive the insights. You're not gonna be writing tensorflow and machine learning and things on premises unless you have a lot of money and a lot of GPS and a lot of capacity. That's the type of thing that is actually better suited for the cloud. And, I would argue, better suited for not your organisation. You're gonna want to delegate that to a third party who has expertise in privacy, data analysis or security forensics or whatever it is that you're trying to do with the data. But you're gonna today when you think about AI. We talked about A. I haven't had a tonne of talk about AI some >>appropriate >>amount. Most of the >>AI today correct me if you think >>this is not true is modelling that's done in the cloud. It's dominant. >>Don't >>you think that's gonna flip when edge >>really starts to take >>off where it's it's more real time >>influencing >>at the edge in new use cases at the edge now how much of that data >>is going to be >>persisted is a >>point of discussion. But what >>are your thoughts on that? I completely agree. So my expectation of the way >>that this will work is that >>the true machine learning will happen in the centralised location, and what it will do is similar to someone will push out to the edge the signatures that drive the inferences. So my example of this is always the Tesla driving down the road. >>There's no way that that >>car should be figuring it sending up to the cloud. Is that a stop sign? Is it not? It can't. It has to be able to figure out what the stop sign is before it gets to it, so we'll do the influencing at the edge. But when it doesn't know what to do with the data, then it should send it to the court to determine, to learn about it and send signatures back out, not just to that edge location, but all the edge locations within the within the ecosystem. So I get what you're saying. They might >>send data back >>when there's an anomaly, >>or I always use the example of a deer running in front of the car. David Floyd gave me that one. That's when I want to. I do want to send the data back to the cloud because Tesla doesn't persist. A tonne of data, I presume, right, right less than 5% of it. You know, I want to. Usually I'm here to dive into the weeds. I want kind of uplevel this >>to sort of the >>larger picture. From an I T perspective. >>There's been a lot of consolidation going on if you divide the >>world into vendors >>and customers. On the customer side, there are only if there's a finite number of seats at the table for truly strategic partners. Those get gobbled up often by hyper >>scale cloud >>providers. The challenge there, and I'm part of a CEO accreditation programme. So this >>is aimed at my students who >>are CEOs and CIOs. The challenge is that a lot of CEOs and CIOs on the customer side don't exhaustively drag out of their vendor partners like a theme everything that Saveem >>can do for >>them. Maybe they're leveraging a point >>solution, >>but I guarantee you they don't all know that you've got cast in in the portfolio. Not every one of them does yet, let alone this idea of a super >>cloud and and and >>how much of a strategic role you can play. So I don't know if it's a blanket admonition to folks out there, but you have got to leverage the people who are building the solutions that are going to help you solve problems in the business. And I guess, as in the form of >>a question, >>uh, do you Do you see that as a challenge? Now those the limited number of seats at >>the Table for >>Strategic Partners >>Challenge and >>Opportunity. If you look at the types of partners that we've partnered with storage partners because they own the storage of the data, at the end of the day, we actually just manage it. We don't actually store it the cloud partners. So I see that as the opportunity and my belief is I thought that the storage doesn't matter, >>but I think the >>organisation that can centralise and manage that data is the one that can rule the world, and so >>clearly I'm a team. I think we can do amazing things, but we do have key >>strategic partners hp >>E Amazon. You heard >>them on stage yesterday. >>18 different >>integrations with AWS. So we have very strategic partners. Azure. I go out there all the time. >>So there >>you don't need to be >>in the room at the table because your partners are >>and they have a relationship with the customer as well. Fair enough. But the key to this it's not just technology. It is these relationships and what is possible between our organisations. So I'm sorry to be >>so dense on this, but when you talk about >>centralising that data you're talking about physically centralising it or can actually live across clouds, >>for instance. But you've got >>visibility and your catalogues >>have visibility on >>all that. Is that what you mean by centralised obliterated? We have understanding of all the places that lives, and we can do things with >>it. We can move it from one >>cloud to another. We can take, you know, everyone talks about data warehouses. >>They're actually pretty expensive. >>You got to take data and stream it into this thing, and there's a massive computing power. On the other hand, we're >>not like that. You've storage on there. We can ephemeral e. Spin up a database when you need it for five minutes and then destroy it. We can spin up an image when you need it and then destroy it. And so on your perspective of locations. So irrespective of >>location, it doesn't >>have to be in a central place, and that's been a challenge. You extract, >>transform and load, >>and moving the data to the central >>location has been a problem. We >>have awareness of >>all the data everywhere, >>and then we can make >>decisions as to what you >>do based >>on where it is and >>what it is. And that's a metadata >>innovation. I guess that >>comes back to the catalogue, >>right? Is that correct? >>You have data >>about the data that informs you as to where it is and how to get to it. And yes, so metadata within the data that allows you to recover it and then data across the federation of all that to determine where it is. And machine intelligence plays a role in all that, not yet not yet in that space. Now. I do think there's opportunity in the future to be able to distribute storage across many different locations and that's a whole conversation in itself. But but our machine learning is more just on helping our customers address the problems in their infrastructures rather than determining right now where that data should be. >>These guys they want me to break, But I'm >>refusing. So your >>Hadoop back >>in their rooms via, um that's >>well, >>that scale. A lot of customers. I talked to Renee Dupuis. Hey, we we got there >>was heavy lift. You >>know, we're looking at new >>ways. New >>approaches, uh, going. And of course, it's all in the cloud >>anyway. But what's >>that look like? That future look like we haven't reached bottle and X ray yet on our on our Hadoop clusters, and we do continuously examine >>them for anomalies that might happen. >>Not saying we won't run into a >>bottle like we always do at some >>point, But we haven't yet >>awesome. We've covered a lot of We've certainly covered extensively the research that you did on cyber >>security and ransomware. Um, you're kind of your vision for modern >>data protection. I think we hit on that pretty well casting, you know, we talked to Michael about that, and then, you know, the future product releases the Salesforce data protection. You guys, I think you're the first there. I think you were threatened at first from Microsoft. 3 65. No, there are other vendors in the in the salesforce space. But what I tell people we weren't the first to do data capture at the hyper >>visor level. There's two other >>vendors I won't tell you they were No one remembers them. Microsoft 3 65. We weren't the first one to for that, but we're now >>the largest. So >>there are other vendors in the salesforce space. But we're looking at We're going to be aggressive. Danielle, Thanks >>so much for coming to Cuba and letting us pick your brain like that Really great job today. And congratulations on >>being back >>in semi normal. Thank you for having me. I love being on all right. And thank you for watching. Keep it right there. More coverage. Day volonte for Dave >>Nicholson, By >>the way, check out silicon angle dot com for all the written coverage. All the news >>The cube dot >>net is where all these videos We'll we'll live. Check out wiki bond dot com I published every week. I think I'm gonna dig into the cybersecurity >>research that you guys did this week. If I can >>get a hands my hands on those charts which Dave Russell promised >>me, we'll be right back >>right after this short break. Mm.

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> When Facebook changed its name to Meta last fall, it catalyzed a chain reaction throughout the tech industry. Software firms, gaming companies, chip makers, device manufacturers, and others have joined in hype machine. Now, it's easy to dismiss the metaverse as futuristic hyperbole, but do we really believe that tapping on a smartphone, or staring at a screen, or two-dimensional Zoom meetings are the future of how we work, play, and communicate? As the internet itself proved to be larger than we ever imagined, it's very possible, and even quite likely that the combination of massive processing power, cheap storage, AI, blockchains, crypto, sensors, AR, VR, brain interfaces, and other emerging technologies will combine to create new and unimaginable consumer experiences, and massive wealth for creators of the metaverse. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube Insights, powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis" we welcome in cyber expert, hacker gamer, NFT expert, and founder of ORE System, Nick Donarski. Nick, welcome, thanks so much for coming on theCUBE. >> Thank you, sir, glad to be here. >> Yeah, okay, so today we're going to traverse two parallel paths, one that took Nick from security expert and PenTester to NFTs, tokens, and the metaverse. And we'll simultaneously explore the complicated world of cybersecurity in the enterprise, and how the blockchain, crypto, and NFTs will provide key underpinnings for digital ownership in the metaverse. We're going to talk a little bit about blockchain, and crypto, and get things started there, and some of the realities and misconceptions, and how innovations in those worlds have led to the NFT craze. We'll look at what's really going on in NFTs and why they're important as both a technology and societal trend. Then, we're going to dig into the tech and try to explain why and how blockchain and NFTs are going to lay the foundation for the metaverse. And, finally, who's going to build the metaverse. And how long is it going to take? All right, Nick, let's start with you. Tell us a little bit about your background, your career. You started as a hacker at a really, really young age, and then got deep into cyber as a PenTester. You did some pretty crazy stuff. You have some great stories about sneaking into buildings. You weren't just doing it all remote. Tell us about yourself. >> Yeah, so I mean, really, I started a long time ago. My dad was really the foray into technology. I wrote my first program on an Apple IIe in BASIC in 1989. So, I like to say I was born on the internet, if you will. But, yeah, in high school at 16, I incorporated my first company, did just tech support for parents and teachers. And then in 2000 I transitioned really into security and focused there ever since. I joined Rapid7 and after they picked up Medis boy, I joined HP. I was one of their founding members of Shadowlabs and really have been part of the information security and the cyber community all throughout, whether it's training at various different conferences or talking. My biggest thing and my most awesome moments as various things of being broken into, is really when I get to actually work with somebody that's coming up in the industry and who's new and actually has that light bulb moment of really kind of understanding of technology, understanding an idea, or getting it when it comes to that kind of stuff. >> Yeah, and when you think about what's going on in crypto and NFTs and okay, now the metaverse it's you get to see some of the most innovative people. Now I want to first share a little bit of data on enterprise security and maybe Nick get you to comment. We've reported over the past several years on the complexity in the security business and the numerous vendor choices that SecOps Pros face. And this chart really tells that story in the cybersecurity space. It's an X,Y graph. We've shown it many times from the ETR surveys where the vertical axis, it's a measure of spending momentum called net score. And the horizontal axis is market share, which represents each company's presence in the data set, and a couple of points stand out. First, it's really crowded. In that red dotted line that you see there, that's 40%, above that line on the net score axis, marks highly elevated spending momentum. Now, let's just zoom in a bit and I've cut the data by those companies that have more than a hundred responses in the survey. And you can see here on this next chart, it's still very crowded, but a few call-outs are noteworthy. First companies like SentinelOne, Elastic, Tanium, Datadog, Netskope and Darktrace. They were all above that 40% line in the previous chart, but they've fallen off. They still have actually a decent presence in the survey over 60 responses, but under that hundred. And you can see Auth0 now Okta, big $7 billion acquisition. They got the highest net score CrowdStrike's up there, Okta classic they're kind of enterprise business, and Zscaler and others above that line. You see Palo Alto Networks and Microsoft very impressive because they're both big and they're above that elevated spending velocity. So Nick, kind of a long-winded intro, but it was a little bit off topic, but I wanted to start here because this is the life of a SecOps pro. They lack the talent in a capacity to keep bad guys fully at bay. And so they have to keep throwing tooling at the problem, which adds to the complexity and as a PenTester and hacker, this chaos and complexity means cash for the bad guys. Doesn't it? >> Absolutely. You know, the more systems that these organizations find to integrate into the systems, means that there's more components, more dollars and cents as far as the amount of time and the engineers that need to actually be responsible for these tools. There's a lot of reasons that, the more, I guess, hands in the cookie jar, if you will, when it comes to the security architecture, the more links that are, or avenues for attack built into the system. And really one of the biggest things that organizations face is being able to have engineers that are qualified and technical enough to be able to support that architecture as well, 'cause buying it from a vendor and deploying it, putting it onto a shelf is good, but if it's not tuned properly, or if it's not connected properly, that security tool can just hold up more avenues of attack for you. >> Right, okay, thank you. Now, let's get into the meat of the discussion for today and talk a little bit about blockchain and crypto for a bit. I saw sub stack post the other day, and it was ripping Matt Damon for pedaling crypto on TV ads and how crypto is just this big pyramid scheme. And it's all about allowing criminals to be anonymous and it's ransomware and drug trafficking. And yes, there are definitely scams and you got to be careful and lots of dangers out there, but these are common criticisms in the mainstream press, that overlooked the fact by the way that IPO's and specs are just as much of a pyramid scheme. Now, I'm not saying there shouldn't be more regulation, there should, but Bitcoin was born out of the 2008 financial crisis, cryptocurrency, and you think about, it's really the confluence of software engineering, cryptography and game theory. And there's some really powerful innovation being created by the blockchain community. Crypto and blockchain are really at the heart of a new decentralized platform being built out. And where today, you got a few, large internet companies. They control the protocols and the platform. Now the aspiration of people like yourself, is to create new value opportunities. And there are many more chances for the little guys and girls to get in on the ground floor and blockchain technology underpins all this. So Nick, what's your take, what are some of the biggest misconceptions around blockchain and crypto? And do you even pair those two in the same context? What are your thoughts? >> So, I mean, really, we like to separate ourselves and say that we are a blockchain company, as opposed to necessarily saying(indistinct) anything like that. We leverage those tools. We leverage cryptocurrencies, we leverage NFTs and those types of things within there, but blockchain is a technology, which is the underlying piece, is something that can be used and utilized in a very large number of different organizations out there. So, cryptocurrency and a lot of that negative context comes with a fear of something new, without having that regulation in place, without having the rules in place. And we were a big proponent of, we want the regulation, right? We want to do right. We want to do it by the rules. We want to do it under the context of, this is what should be done. And we also want to help write those rules as well, because a lot of the lawmakers, a lot of the lobbyists and things, they have a certain aspect or a certain goal of when they're trying to get these things. Our goal is simplicity. We want the ability for the normal average person to be able to interact with crypto, interact with NFTs, interact with the blockchain. And basically by saying, blockchain in quotes, it's very ambiguous 'cause there's many different things that blockchain can be, the easiest way, right? The easiest way to understand blockchain is simply a distributed database. That's really the core of what blockchain is. It's a record keeping mechanism that allows you to reference that. And the beauty of it, is that it's quote unquote immutable. You can't edit that data. So, especially when we're talking about blockchain, being underlying for technologies in the future, things like security, where you have logging, you have keeping, whether you're talking about sales, where you may have to have multiple different locations (indistinct) users from different locations around the globe. It creates a central repository that provides distribution and security in the way that you're ensuring your data, ensuring the validation of where that data exists when it was created. Those types of things that blockchain really is. If you go to the historical, right, the very early on Bitcoin absolutely was made to have a way of not having to deal with the fed. That was the core functionality of the initial crypto. And then you had a lot of the illicit trades, those black markets that jumped onto it because of what it could do. The maturity of the technology though, of where we are now versus say back in 97 is a much different world of blockchain, and there's a much different world of cryptocurrency. You still have to be careful because with any fed, you're still going to have that FUD that goes out there and sells that fear, uncertainty and doubt, which spurs a lot of those types of scams, and a lot of those things that target end users that we face as security professionals today. You still get mailers that go out, looking for people to give their social security number over during tax time. Snail mail is considered a very ancient technology, but it still works. You still get a portion of the population that falls for those tricks, fishing, whatever it might be. It's all about trying to make sure that you have fear about what is that change. And I think that as we move forward, and move into the future, the simpler and the more comfortable these types of technologies become, the easier it is to utilize and indoctrinate normal users, to be able to use these things. >> You know, I want to ask you about that, Nick, because you mentioned immutability, there's a lot of misconceptions about that. I had somebody tell me one time, "Blockchain's Bs," and they say, "Well, oh, hold on a second. They say, oh, they say it's a mutable, but you can hack Coinbase, whatever it is." So I guess a couple of things, one is that the killer app for blockchain became money. And so we learned a lot through that. And you had Bitcoin and it really wasn't programmable through its interface. And then Ethereum comes out. I know, you know a lot about Ether and you have solidity, which is a lot simpler, but it ain't JavaScript, which is ubiquitous. And so now you have a lot of potential for the initial ICO's and probably still the ones today, the white papers, a lot of security flaws in there. I'm sure you can talk to that, but maybe you can help square that circle about immutability and security. I've mentioned game theory before, it's harder to hack Bitcoin and the Bitcoin blockchain than it is to mine. So that's why people mine, but maybe you could add some context to that. >> Yeah, you know it goes to just about any technology out there. Now, when you're talking about blockchain specifically, the majority of the attacks happen with the applications and the smart contracts that are actually running on the blockchain, as opposed to necessarily the blockchain itself. And like you said, the impact for whether that's loss of revenue or loss of tokens or whatever it is, in most cases that results from something that was a phishing attack, you gave up your credentials, somebody said, paste your private key in here, and you win a cookie or whatever it might be, but those are still the fundamental pieces. When you're talking about various different networks out there, depending on the blockchain, depends on how much the overall security really is. The more distributed it is, and the more stable it is as the network goes, the better or the more stable any of the code is going to be. The underlying architecture of any system is the key to success when it comes to the overall security. So the blockchain itself is immutable, in the case that the owner are ones have to be trusted. If you look at distributed networks, something like Ethereum or Bitcoin, where you have those proof of work systems, that disperses that information at a much more remote location, So the more disperse that information is, the less likely it is to be able to be impacted by one small instance. If you look at like the DAO Hack, or if you look at a lot of the other vulnerabilities that exist on the blockchain, it's more about the code. And like you said, solidity being as new as it is, it's not JavaScript. The industry is very early and very infantile, as far as the developers that are skilled in doing this. And with that just comes the inexperience and the lack of information that you don't learn until JavaScript is 10 or 12 years old. >> And the last thing I'll say about this topic, and we'll move on to NFTs, but NFTs relate is that, again, I said earlier that the big internet giants have pretty much co-opted the platform. You know, if you wanted to invest in Linux in the early days, there was no way to do that. You maybe have to wait until red hat came up with its IPO and there's your pyramid scheme folks. But with crypto it, which is again, as Nick was explaining underpinning is the blockchain, you can actually participate in early projects. Now you got to be careful 'cause there are a lot of scams and many of them are going to blow out if not most of them, but there are some, gems out there, because as Nick was describing, you've got this decentralized platform that causes scaling issues or performance issues, and people are solving those problems, essentially building out a new internet. But I want to get into NFTs, because it's sort of the next big thing here before we get into the metaverse, what Nick, why should people pay attention to NFTs? Why do they matter? Are they really an important trend? And what are the societal and technological impacts that you see in this space? >> Yeah, I mean, NFTs are a very new technology and ultimately it's just another entry on the blockchain. It's just another piece of data in the database. But how it's leveraged in the grand scheme of how we, as users see it, it can be the classic idea of an NFT is just the art, or as good as the poster on your wall. But in the case of some of the new applications, is where are you actually get that utility function. Now, in the case of say video games, video games and gamers in general, already utilize digital items. They already utilize digital points. As in the case of like Call of Duty points, those are just different versions of digital currencies. You know, World of Warcraft Gold, I like to affectionately say, was the very first cryptocurrency. There was a Harvard course taught on the economy of WOW, there was a black market where you could trade your end game gold for Fiat currencies. And there's even places around the world that you can purchase real world items and stay at hotels for World of Warcraft Gold. So the adoption of blockchain just simply gives a more stable and a more diverse technology for those same types of systems. You're going to see that carry over into shipping and logistics, where you need to have data that is single repository for being able to have multiple locations, multiple shippers from multiple global efforts out there that need to have access to that data. But in the current context, it's either sitting on a shipping log, it's sitting on somebody's desk. All of those types of paper transactions can be leveraged as NFTs on the blockchain. It's just simply that representation. And once you break the idea of this is just a piece of art, or this is a cryptocurrency, you get into a world where you can apply that NFT technology to a lot more things than I think most people think of today. >> Yeah, and of course you mentioned art a couple of times when people sold as digital art for whatever, it was 60, 65 million, 69 million, that caught a lot of people's attention, but you're seeing, I mean, there's virtually infinite number of applications for this. One of the Washington wizards, tokenized portions of his contract, maybe he was creating a new bond, that's really interesting use cases and opportunities, and that kind of segues into the latest, hot topic, which is the metaverse. And you've said yourself that blockchain and NFTs are the foundation of the metaverse, they're foundational elements. So first, what is the metaverse to you and where do blockchain and NFTs, fit in? >> Sure, so, I mean, I affectionately refer to the metaverse just a VR and essentially, we've been playing virtual reality games and all the rest for a long time. And VR has really kind of been out there for a long time. So most people's interpretation or idea of what the metaverse is, is a virtual reality version of yourself and this right, that idea of once it becomes yourself, is where things like NFT items, where blockchain and digital currencies are going to come in, because if you have a manufacturer, so you take on an organization like Nike, and they want to put their shoes into the metaverse because we, as humans, want to individualize ourselves. We go out and we want to have that one of one shoe or that, t-shirt or whatever it is, we're going to want to represent that same type of individuality in our virtual self. So NFTs, crypto and all of those digital currencies, like I was saying that we've known as gamers are going to play that very similar role inside of the metaverse. >> Yeah. Okay. So basically you're going to take your physical world into the metaverse. You're going to be able to, as you just mentioned, acquire things- I loved your WOW example. And so let's stay on this for a bit, if we may, of course, Facebook spawned a lot of speculation and discussion about the concept of the metaverse and really, as you pointed out, it's not new. You talked about why second life, really started in 2003, and it's still around today. It's small, I read recently, it's creators coming back into the company and books were written in the early 90s that used the term metaverse. But Nick, talk about how you see this evolving, what role you hope to play with your company and your community in the future, and who builds the metaverse, when is it going to be here? >> Yeah, so, I mean, right now, and we actually just got back from CES last week. And the Metaverse is a very big buzzword. You're going to see a lot of integration of what people are calling, quote unquote, the metaverse. And there was organizations that were showing virtual office space, virtual malls, virtual concerts, and those types of experiences. And the one thing right now that I don't think that a lot of organizations have grasp is how to make one metaverse. There's no real player one, if you will always this yet, There's a lot of organizations that are creating their version of the metaverse, which then again, just like every other software and game vendor out there has their version of cryptocurrency and their version of NFTs. You're going to see it start to pop up, especially as Oculus is going to come down in price, especially as you get new technologies, like some of the VR glasses that look more augmented reality and look more like regular glasses that you're wearing, things like that, the easier that those technologies become as in adopting into our normal lifestyle, as far as like looks and feels, the faster that stuff's going to actually come out to the world. But when it comes to like, what we're doing is we believe that the metaverse should actually span multiple different blockchains, multiple different segments, if you will. So what ORE system is doing, is we're actually building the underlying architecture and technologies for developers to bring their metaverse too. You can leverage the ORE Systems NFTs, where we like to call our utility NFTs as an in-game item in one game, or you can take it over and it could be a t-shirt in another game. The ability for having that cross support within the ecosystem is what really no one has grasp on yet. Most of the organizations out there are using a very classic business model. Get the user in the game, make them spend their money in the game, make all their game stuff as only good in their game. And that's where the developer has you, they have you in their bubble. Our goal, and what we like to affectionately say is, we want to bring white collar tools and technology to blue collar folks, We want to make it simple. We want to make it off the shelf, and we want to make it a less cost prohibitive, faster, and cheaper to actually get out to all the users. We do it by supporting the technology. That's our angle. If you support the technology and you support the platform, you can build a community that will build all of the metaverse around them. >> Well, and so this is interesting because, if you think about some of the big names, we've Microsoft is talking about it, obviously we mentioned Facebook. They have essentially walled gardens. Now, yeah, okay, I could take Tik Tok and pump it into Instagram is fine, but they're really siloed off. And what you're saying is in the metaverse, you should be able to buy a pair of sneakers in one location and then bring it to another one. >> Absolutely, that's exactly it. >> And so my original kind of investment in attractiveness, if you will, to crypto, was that, the little guy can get an early, but I worry that some of these walled gardens, these big internet giants are going to try to co-op this. So I think what you're doing is right on, and I think it's aligned with the objectives of consumers and the users who don't want to be forced in to a pen. They want to be able to live freely. And that's really what you're trying to do. >> That's exactly it. You know, when you buy an item, say a Skin in Fortnite or Skin in Call of Duty, it's only good in that game. And not even in the franchise, it's only good in that version of the game. In the case of what we want to do is, you can not only have that carry over and your character. So say you buy a really cool shirt, and you've got that in your Call of Duty or in our case, we're really Osiris Protocol, which is our proof of concept video game to show that this all thing actually works, but you can actually go in and you can get a gun in Osiris Protocol. And if we release, Osiris Protocol two, you'll be able to take that to Osiris Protocol two. Now the benefit of that is, is you're going to be the only one in the next version with that item, if you haven't sold it or traded it or whatever else. So we don't lock you into a game. We don't lock you into a specific application. You own that, you can trade that freely with other users. You can sell that on the open market. We're embracing what used to be considered the black market. I don't understand why a lot of video games, we're always against the skins and mods and all the rest. For me as a gamer and coming up, through the many, many years of various different Call of Duties and everything in my time, I wish I could still have some this year. I still have a World of Warcraft account. I wasn't on, Vanilla, Burning Crusade was my foray, but I still have a character. If you look at it that way, if I had that wild character and that gear was NFTs, in theory, I could actually pass that onto my kid who could carry on that character. And it would actually increase in value because they're NFT back then. And then if needed, you could trade those on the open market and all the rest. It just makes gaming a much different thing. >> I love it. All right, Nick, hey, we're out of time, but I got to say, Nick Donarski, thanks so much for coming on the program today, sharing your insights and really good luck to you and building out your technology platform and your community. >> Thank you, sir, it's been an absolute pleasure. >> And thank you for watching. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts, just search "Breaking Analysis Podcast", and you'll find them. I publish pretty much every week on siliconangle.com and wikibond.com. And you can reach me @dvellante on Twitter or comment on my LinkedIn posts. You can always email me david.vellante@siliconangle.com. And don't forget, check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR, happy 2022 be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Every CEO is figuring out the right balance for new hybrid business models. Now, regardless of the chosen approach, which is going to vary, technology executives, they understand they have to accelerate their digital and build resilience as well as optionality into their platforms. Now, this is driving a dramatic shift in IT investments. And at the macro level, we expect total spending to increase at as much as 8% or even more in 2021, compared to last year's contraction. Investments in cybersecurity, cloud collaboration that are enabling hybrid work as well as data, including analytics, AI, and automation are at the top of the spending priorities for CXOs. Hello everyone. And welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we're pleased to welcome back Erik Bradley, who is the chief engagement strategist at our partner, ETR. Now in this segment, we're going to share some of the latest findings from ETR's surveys and provide our commentary on what it means for the markets, for sellers, and for buyers. Erik, great to see you, my friend. Welcome back to Breaking Analysis. >> Thank you for having me, always enjoy it. We've got some fresh data to talk about on this beautiful summer Friday, so I'm ready to go. >> All right. I'm excited too. Okay, last year we saw a contraction in IT spending by at least 5%. And now we're seeing a snapback to, as I said, at least 8% growth relative to last year. You got to go back to 2007 just before the financial crisis to see this type of top line growth. The shift to hybrid work, it's exposed us to new insidious security threats. And we're going to discuss that in a lot more detail. Cloud migration of course picked up dramatically last year, and based on the recent earnings results of the big cloud players, for now we got two quarters of data, that trend continues as organizations are accelerating their digital platform build-outs, and this is bringing a lot of complexity and a greater need for so-called observability solutions, which Erik is going to talk about extensively later on in this segment. Data, we think is entering a new era of de-centralization. We see organizations not only focused on analytics and insights, but actually creating data products. Leading technology organizations like JP Morgan, they're heavily leaning into this trend toward packaging and monetizing data products. And finally, as part of the digital transformation trend, we see no slow down in spending momentum for AI and automation, generally in RPA specifically. Erik, anything you want to add to that top level narrative? >> Yeah, there's a lot to take on the macro takeaways. The first thing I want to state is that that 8, 8.5% number that started off at just 3 to 4% beginning of the year. So as the year has continued, we are just seeing this trend in budgets continue to accelerate, and we don't have any reason to believe that's going to stop. So I think we're going to just keep moving on heading into 2021. And we're going to see a banner year of spend this year and probably next as well. >> All right, now we're going to bring up a chart that shows kind of that progression here of spending momentum. So Erik, I'm going to let you comment on this chart that tracks those projections over time. >> Erik: Yeah. Great. So thank you very much for pulling this up. As you can see in the beginning part of the year, when we asked people, "What do you plan to spend throughout 2021?" They were saying it would be about a 4% increase. Which we were happy with because as you said last year, it was all negative. That continues to accelerate and is only hyper accelerating now as we head into the back half of the year. In addition, after we do this data, I always host a panel of IT end users to kind of get their feedback on what we collected, to a man, every one of them expects continued increase throughout next year. There are some concerns and uncertainty about what we're seeing right now with COVID, but even with that, they're planning their budgets now for 2022 and they're planning for even further increases going forward. >> Dave: Great, thank you. So we circled that 8%. That's really kind of where we thought it was going to land. And so we're happy with that number, but let's take a look at where the action is by technology sector. This chart that we're showing you here, it tracks spending priorities back to last September. When I believe that was the point, Erik, that cyber became the top priority in the survey, ahead of cloud collaboration, analytics, and data, and the other sectors that you see there. Now, Erik, we should explain. These areas, they're the top seven, and they outrank all the other sectors. ETR tracks many, many other sectors, but please weigh in here and share your thoughts on this data. >> Erik: Yeah. Security, security, security. It hasn't changed. It had really hasn't. The hybrid work. The fact that you're behind the firewall one day and then you're outside working from home the next, switching in and out of networks. This is just a field day for bad actors. And we have no choice right now, but to continue to spend, because as you're going to talk about in a minute, hybrid's here to stay. So we have to figure out a way to secure behind the firewall on-prem. We also have to secure our employees and our assets that are not in the office. So it is a main priority. One of the things that point out on this chart, I had a couple of ITN users talk to me about customer experience and automation really need to move from the right part of that chart to the left. So they're seeing more in what you were talking about in RPA and automation, starting to creep up heading into next year. As cloud migration matures, as you know, cybersecurity spending has been ramping up. People are going to see a little bit more on the analytics and a little bit more on the automation side going forward. >> Dave: Great. Now, this next data view- well, first of all, one of the great things about the ETR dataset is that you can ask key questions and get a time series. And I will tell you again, I go back to last March, ETR hit it. They were the first on the work from home trend. And so if you were on that trend, you were able to anticipate it. And a lot of investors I think took advantage of that. Now, but we've shown this before, but there's new data points that we want to introduce. So the data tracks how CIOs and IT buyers have responded to the pandemic since last March. Still 70% of the organizations have employees working remotely, but 39% now have employees fully returning to the office and Erik, the rest of the metrics all point toward positives for IT spending, although accelerating IT deployments there at the right peaked last year, as people realized they had to invest in the future. Your thoughts? >> Erik: Yeah, this is the slide for optimism, without a doubt. Of the entire macro survey we did, this is the most optimistic slide. It's great for overall business. It's great for business travel. This is well beyond just IT. Hiring is up. I've had some people tell me that they possibly can't hire enough people right now. They had to furlough employees, they had to stop projects, and they want to re accelerate those now. But talent is very hard to find. Another point to you about your automation and RPA, another underlying trend for there. The one thing I did want to talk about here is the hybrid workplace, but I believe there's another slide on it. So just to recap on this extremely optimistic, we're seeing a lot of hiring. We're seeing increased spending, and I do believe that that's going to continue. >> Yeah I'm glad you brought that up because a session that you and I did a while ago, we pointed out, it was earlier this year, that the skill shortage is one potential risk to our positive scenario. We'll keep an eye on that, but so I want to show another set of data that we've showed previously, but ETR again, has added some new questions in here. So note here that 60% of employees still work remotely with 33% in a hybrid model currently, and the CIO's expect that to land on about 42% hybrid workforce with around 30% working remotely, which is around, it's been consistent by the way on your surveys, but that's about double the historic norm, Eric. >> Erik: Yeah, and even further to your point Dave, recently I did a panel asking people to give me some feedback on this. And three of those four experts basically said to me, if we had greed run this survey right now, that even more people would be saying remote. That they believe that that number, that's saying they're expecting that number of people to be back in office, is actually too optimistic. They're actually saying that maybe if we had- cause as a survey launched about six, seven weeks ago before this little blip on the radar, before the little COVID hiccup we're seeing now, and they're telling me that they believe if we reran this now that it would be even more remote work, even more hybrid and less returned to the office. So that's just an update I wanted to offer on this slide. >> Dave: Yeah. Thank you for that. I mean, we're still in this kind of day to day, week to week, month to month mode, but I want to do a little double click on this. We're not going to share this data, but there was so much ETR data. We got to be selective. But if you double click on the hybrid models, you'll see that 50% of organizations plan to have time roughly equally split between onsite and remote with again around 30 or 31% mostly remote, with onsite space available if they need it. And Erik, very few don't plan to have some type of hybrid model, at least. >> Yeah, I think it was less than 10% that said it was going to be exclusively onsite. And again, that was a more optimistic scenario six, seven weeks ago than we're seeing right now throughout the country. So I agree with you, hybrid is here to stay. There really is no doubt about it. from everyone I speak to when, you know, I basically make a living talking to IT end users. Hybrid is here to stay. They're planning for it. And that's really the drive behind the spending because you have to support both. You have to give people the option. You have to, from an IT perspective, you also have to support both, right? So if somebody is in office, I need the support staff to be in office. Plus I need them to be able to remote in and fix something from home. So they're spending on both fronts right now. >> Okay. Let's get into some of the vendor performance data. And I want to start with the cloud hyperscalers. It's something that we followed pretty closely. I got some Wiki bond data, that we just had earnings released. So here's data that shows the Q2 revenue shares on the left-hand side in the pie and the growth rates for the big four cloud players on the right hand side. It goes back to Q1 2019. Now the first thing I want to say is these players generated just under $39 billion in the quarter with AWS capturing 50% of that number. I said 39, it was 29 billion, sorry, with AWS capturing 50% of that in the quarter. As you're still tracking around a third in Alibaba and GCP in the, you know, eight or 9% range. But what's most interesting to me, Erik, is that AWS, which generated almost 15 billion in the quarter, was the only player to grow its revenue, both sequentially and year over year. And Erik, I think the street is missing the real story here on Amazon. Amazon announced earnings on Thursday night. The company had a 2% miss on the top line revenues and a meaningful 22% beat on earnings per share. So the retail side of the business missed its revenue targets, so that's why everybody's freaked out. But AWS, the cloud side, saw a 4% revenue beat. So the stock was off more than 70% after hours and into Friday. Now to me, a mix shift toward AWS, that's great news for investors. Now, tepid guidance is a negative, but the shift to a more profitable cloud business is a huge positive. >> Yeah, there's a lot that goes into stock price, right? I remember I was a director of research back in the day. One of my analysts said to me, "Am I crazy for putting a $1,000 target on Amazon?" And I laughed and I said, "No, you're crazy if you don't make it $2,000." (both chuckling) So, you know, at that time it was basically the mix shift towards AWS. You're a thousand percent right. I think the tough year over year comps had something to do with that reaction. That, you know, it's just getting really hard. What's that? The law of large numbers, right? It's really hard to grow at that percentage rate when you're getting this big. But from our data perspective, we're seeing no slowdown in AWS, in cloud, none whatsoever. The only slowdown we're seeing in cloud is GCP. But to, you know, to focus on AWS, extremely strong across the board and not only just in cloud, but in all their data products as well, data and analytics. >> Yeah and I think that the AWS, don't forget folks, that funds Amazon's TAM expansion into so many different places. Okay. As we said at the top, the world of digital and hybrid work, and multi-cloud, it's more complicated than it used to be. And that means if you need to resolve issues, which everybody does, like poor application performance, et cetera, what's happening at the user level, you have to have a better way to sort of see what's going on. And that's what the emergence of the observability space is all about. So Erik, let me set this up and you have a lot of comments here because you've recently had some, and you always have had a lot of round table discussions with CXOs on this topic. So this chart plots net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis, and market share or pervasiveness in the dataset on the horizontal axis. And we inserted a table that shows the data points in detail. Now that red dotted line is just sort of Dave Vellante's subjective mark in the sand for elevated spending levels. And there are three other points here. One is Splunk as well off is two-year peak, as highlighted in the red, but Signal FX, which Splunk acquired, has made a big move northward this last quarter. As has Datadog. So Erik, what can you share with us on this hot, but increasingly crowded space? >> Yeah. I could talk about the space for a long time. As you know, I've gotten some flack over the last year and a half about, you know, kind of pointing out this trend, this negative trend in Splunk. So I do want to be the first one to say that this data set is rebounding. Splunk has been horrific in our data for going back almost two years now, straight downward trend. This is the first time we're seeing any increase, any positivity there. So I do want to be fair and state that because I've been accused of being a little too negative on Splunk in the past. But I would basically say for observability right now, it's a rising tide lifts all boats, if I can use a New England phrase. The data across the board in analytics for these observability players is up, is accelerating. None more so than Datadog. And it's exactly your point, David. The complexity, the increased cloud migration is a perfect setup for Datadog, which is a cloud native. It focuses on microservices. It focuses on cloud observability. Old Splunk was just application monitoring. Don't get me wrong, they're changing, but they were on-prem application monitoring, first and foremost. Datadog came out as cloud native. They, you know, do microservices. This is just a perfect setup for them. And not only is Datadog leading the observability, it's leading the entire analytics sector, all of it. Not just the observability niche. So without a doubt, that is the strongest that we're seeing. It's leading Dynatrace new Relic. The only one that really isn't rebounding is Cisco App Dynamics. That's getting the dreaded legacy word really attached to it. But this space is really on fire, elastic as well, really doing well in this space. New Relic has shown a little bit of improvement as well. And what I heard when I asked my panelists about this, is that because of the maturity of cloud migration, that this observability has to grow. Spending on this has to happen. So they all say the chart looks right. And it's really just about the digital transformation maturity. So that's largely what they think is happening here. And they don't really see it getting, you know, changing anytime soon. >> Yeah, and I would add, and you see that it's getting crowded. You saw a service now acquired LightStep, and they want to get into the game. You mentioned, you know, last deck of the elk stack is, you know, the open source alternative, but then we see a company who's raised a fair amount of money, startup, chaos search, coming in, going after kind of the complexity of the elk stack. You've got honeycomb, which has got a really innovative approach, Jeremy Burton's company observes. So you have venture capital coming in. So we'll see if those guys could be disruptive enough or are they, you know, candidates to get acquired? We'll see how that all- you know that well. The M and A space. You think this space is ripe for M and A? >> I think it's ripe for consolidation, M and A. Something has to shake out. There's no doubt. I do believe that all of these can be standalone. So we shall see what's happened to, you mentioned the Splunk acquisition of Signal FX, just a house cleaning point. That was really nice acceleration by Signal FX, but it was only 20 citations. We'd looked into this a little bit deeper. Our data scientists did. It appears as if the majority of people are just signaling spunk and not FX separately. So moving forward for our data set, we're going to combine those two, so we don't have those anomalies going forward. But that type of acquisition does show what we should expect to see more of in this group going forward. >> Well that's I want to mention. That's one of the challenges that any data company has, and you guys do a great job of it. You're constantly having to reevaluate. There's so much M and A going on in the industry. You've got to pick the right spots in terms of when to consolidate. There's some big, you know, Dell and EMC, for example. You know, you've beautifully worked through that transition. You're seeing, you know, open shift and red hat with IBM. You just got to be flexible. And that's where it's valuable to be able to have a pipeline to guys like Erik, to sort of squint through that. So thank you for that clarification. >> Thank you too, because having a resource like you with industry knowledge really helps us navigate some of those as well for everyone out there. So that's a lot to do with you do Dave, >> Thank you. It's going to be interesting to watch Splunk. Doug Merritt's made some, you know, management changes, not the least of which is bringing in Teresa Carlson to run go to market. So if you know, I'd be interested if they are hitting, bouncing off the bottom and rising up again. They have a great customer base. Okay. Let's look at some of the same dimensions. Go ahead. You got a comment? >> A few of ETR's clients looked at our data and then put a billion dollar investment into it too. So obviously I agree. (Dave laughing) Splunk is looking like it's set for a rebound, and it's definitely something to watch, I agree. >> Not to rat hole in this, but I got to say. When I look back, cause theCUBE gives us kind of early visibility. So companies with momentum and you talk to the customers that all these shows that we go to. I will tell you that three companies stood out last decade. It was Splunk. It was Service Now and Tableau. And you could tell just from just discussions with their customers, the enthusiasm in that customer base. And so that's a real asset, and that helps them build them a moat. So we'll see. All right, let's take a look at the same dimensions now for cyber. This is cybersecurity net score in the vertical, and market share in the horizontal. And I filtered by in greater than a hundred shared in because just gets so crowded. Erik, the only things I would point out here is CrowdStrike and Zscaler continue to shine, CyberArk also showing momentum over that 40% line. Very impressively, Palo Alto networks, which has a big presence in the market. They've bounced back. We predicted that a while back. Your round table suggested people like working with Palo Alto. They're a gold standard. You know, we had reported earlier on that divergence with four to net in terms of valuation and some of the challenges they had in cloud, clearly, you know, back with the momentum. And of course, Microsoft in the upper, right. It's just, they're literally off the charts and obviously a major player here, but your thoughts on cyber? >> Erik: Yeah. Going back to the backdrop. Security, security, security. It has been the number one priority going back to last September. No one sees it changing. It has to happen. The threat vectors are actually expanding and we have no choice but to spend here. So it is not surprising to see. You did name our three favorite names. So as you know, we look at the dataset, we see which ones have the most positive inflections, and we put outlooks on those. And you did mention Zscaler, Okta and CrowdStrike, by far the three standouts that we're seeing. I just recently did a huge panel on Okta talking about their acquisition of Auth Zero. They're pushed into Sale Point space, trying to move just from single sign on and MFA to going to really privileged account management. There is some hurdles there. Really Okta's ability to do this on-prem is something that a little bit of the IT end users are concerned about. But what we're seeing right now, both Okta and Auth Zero are two of the main adopted names in security. They look incredibly well set up. Zscaler as well. With the ZTNA push more towards zero trust, Zscaler came out so hot in their IPO. And everyone was wondering if it was going to trail off just like Snowflake. It's not trailing off. This thing just keeps going up into the right, up into the right. The data supports a lot of tremendous growth for the three names that you just mentioned. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm glad you brought up Auth Zero. We had reported on that earlier. I just feel like that was a great acquisition. You had Okta doing the belly to belly enterprise, you know, selling. And the one thing that they really lacked was that developer momentum. And that's what Auth Zero brings. Just a smart move by Todd McKinnon and company. And I mean, so this, you know, I want to, I want to pull up another chart show a quick snapshot of some of the players in the survey who show momentum and have you comment on this. We haven't mentioned Snowflake so far, but they remain again with like this gold standard of net score, they've consistently had those high marks with regard to spending velocity. But here's some other data. Erik, how should we interpret this? >> Erik: Yeah, just to harp on Snowflake for a second. Right, I mean the rich get richer. They came out- IPO was so hyped, so it was hard for us as a research company to say, "Oh, you know, well, you know, we agree." But we did. The data is incredible. You can't beat the management team. You can't beat what they're doing. They've got so much cash. I can't wait to see what they do with it. And meanwhile, you would expect something that debuted with that high of a net score, that high of spending velocity to trail off. It would be natural. It's not Dave, it's still accelerating. It's gone even higher. It's at all time highs. And we just don't see it stopping anytime soon. It's a really interesting space right now. Maybe another name to look at on here that I think is pretty interesting, kind of a play on return to business is Kupa. It's a great project expense management tool that got hit really hard. Listen, traveling stopped, business expense stopped, and I did a panel on it. And a lot of our guys basically said, "Yeah, it was the first thing I cut." But we're seeing a huge rebound in spending there in that space. So that's a name that I think might be worth being called out on a positive side. Negative, If you look down to the bottom right of that chart, unfortunately we're seeing some issues in RingCentral and Zoom. Anything that's sort of playing in this next, you know, video conferencing, IP telephony space, they seem to be having really decelerating spending. Also now with Zoom's acquisition of five nine. I'm not really sure how RingCentral's going to compete on that. But yeah, that's one where we debuted for the first time with a negative outlook on that name. And looking and asking to some of the people in our community, a lot of them say externally, you still need IP telepany, but internally you don't. Because the You Cast communication systems are getting so sophisticated, that if I have Teams, if I have Slack, I don't need phones anymore. (chuckling) That you and I can just do a Slack call. We can do a Teams call. And many of them are saying I'm truly ripping out my IP Telepany internally as soon as possible because we just don't need it. So this whole collaboration, productivity space is here to stay. And it's got wide ranging implications to some of these more legacy type of tools. >> You know, one of the other things I'd call out on this chart is Accenture. You and I had a session earlier this year, and we had predicted that that skill shortage was going to lead to an uptick in traditional services. We've certainly seen that. I mean, IBM beat its quarter on the strength of services largely. And seeing Accenture on that is I think confirmation. >> Yeah that was our New Year prediction show, right Dave? When we made top 10 predictions? >> That's right. That was part of our predictions show. Exactly, good memory. >> The data is really showing that continue. People want the projects, they need to do the projects, but hiring is very difficult. So obviously the number one beneficiary there are going to be the Accentures of the world. >> All right. So let's do a quick wrap. I'm going to make a few comments and then have you bring us home, Erik. So we laid out our scenario for the tech spending rebound. We definitely believe last year tracked downward, along with GDP contraction. It was interesting. Gardner doesn't believe, at least factions of Gardner don't believe there's a correlation between GDP and tech spending. But, you know, I personally think there generally is some kind of relatively proportional pattern there. And I think we saw contraction last year. People are concerned about inflation. Of course, that adds some uncertainty. And as well, as you mentioned around the Delta variant. But I feel as though that the boards of directors and CEOs, they've mandated that tech execs have to build out digital platforms for the future. They're data centric. They're highly automated, to your earlier points. They're intelligent with AI infused, and that's going to take investment. I feel like the tech community has said, "Look, we know what to do here. We're dealing with hybrid work. We can't just stop doing what we're doing. Let's move forward." You know, and as you say, we're flying again and so forth. You know, getting hybrid right is a major priority that directly impacts strategies. Technology strategies, particularly around security, cloud, the productivity of remote workers with collaboration. And as we've said many times, we are entering a new era of data that's going to focus on decentralized data, building data products, and Erik let's keep an eye on this observability space. Lot of interest there, and buyers have a number of choices. You know, do they go with a specialist, as we saw recently, we've seen in the past, or did they go with the generalist like Service Now with the acquisition of LightStep? You know, it's going to be interesting. A lot of people are going to get into this space, start bundling into larger platforms. And so as you said, there's probably not enough room for all the players. We're going to see some consolidation there. But anyway, let me give you the final word here. >> Yeah, no, I completely agree with all of it. And I think your earlier points are spot on, that analytics and automation are certainly going to be moving more and more to that left of that chart we had of priorities. I think as we continue that survey heading into 2022, we'll have some fresh data for you again in a few months, that's going to start looking at 2022 priorities and overall spend. And the one other area that I keep hearing about over and over and over again is customer experience. There's a transition from good old CRM to CXM. Right now, everything is digital. It is not going away. So you need an omni-channel support to not only track your customer experience, but improve it. Make sure there's a two way communication. And it's a really interesting space. Salesforce is going to migrate into it. We've got Qualtrics out there. You've got Medallia. You've got FreshWorks, you've got Sprinkler. You got some names out there. And everyone I keep talking to on the IT end user side keeps bringing up customer experience. So let's keep an eye on that as well. >> That's a great point. And again, it brings me back to Service Now. We wrote a piece last week that's sort of, Service Now and Salesforce are on a collision course. We've said that for many, many years. And you've got this platform of platforms. They're just kind of sucking in different functions saying, "Hey, we're friends with everybody." But as you know Erik, software companies, they want to own it all. (both chuckling) All right. Hey Erik, thank you so much. I want to thank you for coming back on. It's always a pleasure to have you on Breaking Analysis. Great to see you. >> Love the partnership. Love the collaboration. Let's go enjoy this summer Friday. >> All right. Let's do. Okay, remember everybody, these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis Podcast, click subscribe to the series. Check out ETR's website at etr.plus. They've just launched a new website. They've got a whole new pricing model. It's great to see that innovation going on. Now remember we also publish a full report every week on WikiBond.com and SiliconAngle.com. You can always email me, appreciate the back channel comments, the metadata insights. David.Vellante@SiliconAngle.com. DM me on Twitter @DVellante or comment on the LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley and theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, a good rest of summer, be well. And we'll see you next time. (inspiring music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Mobile World Congress is alive, theCUBE will be there and we'll certainly let you know if it's alive and well when we get on the ground. Now, as we approach a delayed mobile world congress, it's really appropriate to reflect in the state of the telecoms industry. Let's face it. Telcos have done of really good job of keeping us all connected during the pandemic, supporting work from home and that whole pivot, accommodating the rapid shift to landline traffic, securing the network and keeping it up and running but it doesn't change the underlying fundamental dilemma that Telco has faced. Telco is a slow growth, no growth industry, with revenue expectations in the low single digits. And at the same time network traffic continues to grow at 20% annually. And last year it grew at 40% to 50%. Despite these challenges, Telcos are still investing in the future. For example, the Telco industry collectively is selling out more than a trillion dollars in the first half of this decade on 5G and fiber infrastructure. And it's estimated that there are now more than 200 5G networks worldwide. But a lot of questions remain, not the least of which is, can and should Telcos go beyond connectivity and fiber. Can the Telcos actually monetize 5G or whatever's next beyond 5G? Or is that going to be left to the ecosystem? Now what about the ecosystem? How is that evolving? And very importantly, what role will the Cloud Hyperscalers play in Telco? Are they infrastructure on which the Telcos can build or are they going to suck the value out of the market as they have done in the enterprise? Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, it's my pleasure to welcome a long time telecoms industry analyst and colleague, and the founding director of Lewis Insight, Mr. Chris Lewis. Chris, welcome to the program. Thanks for coming on >> Dave, it's a pleasure to be here. Thank you for having me. >> It is really our pleasure. So, we're going to cover a lot of ground today. And first thing, we're going to talk about Mobile World Congress. I've never been, you're an expert at that and what we can expect. And then we're going to review the current state of telecoms infrastructure, where it should go. We're going to dig into transformation. Is it a mandate? Is it aspirational? Can Telcos enter adjacent markets in ways they haven't been able to in the past? And then how about the ecosystem? We're going to talk about that, and then obviously we're going to talk about Cloud as I said, and we'll riff a little bit on the tech landscape. So Chris, let's get into it, Mobile World Congress, it's back on, what's Mobile World Congress typically like? What's your expectation this year for the vibe compared to previous events? >> Well Dave, the issue of Mobile World Congress is always that we go down there for a week into Barcelona. We stress ourselves building a matrix of meetings in 30 minutes slots and we return at the end of it trying to remember what we'd been told all the way through. The great thing is that with the last time we had a live, with around 110,000 people there, you could see anyone and everyone you needed to within the mobile, and increasingly the adjacent industry and ecosystem. So, he gave you that once a year, big download of everything new, obviously because it's the Mobile World Congress, a lot of it around devices, but increasingly over the last few years, we saw many, many stands with cars on them because the connected car became an issue, a lot more software oriented players there, but always the Telcos, always the people providing the network infrastructure. Increasingly in the last few years people provided the software and IT infrastructure, but all of these people contributing to what the network should be in the future, what needs to be connected. But of course the reach of the network has been growing. You mentioned during lockdown about connecting people in their homes, well, of course we've also been extending that connection to connect things whether it's in the home or the different devices, monitoring of doorbells and lights and all that sort of stuff. And in the industry environment, connecting all of the robots and sensors. So, actually the perimeter, the remit of the industry to connect has been expanding, and so is the sort of remit of Mobile World Congress. So, we set an awful lot of different suppliers coming in, trying to attach to this enormous market of roughly $1.5 trillion globally. >> Chris, what's the buzz in the industry in terms of who's going to show up. I know a lot of people have pulled out, I've got the Mobile World Congress app and I can see who's attending. And it looks like quite a few people are going to go but what's your expectation? >> Well, from an analyst point of view, obviously I'm mainly keeping up with my clients and trying to get new clients. I'm looking at it and going most of my clients are not attending in person. Now, of course, we need the DSMA, we need Mobile World Congress for future for the industry interaction. But of course, like many people having adopted and adapted to be online, then they're putting a lot of the keynotes online, a lot of the activities will be online. But of course many of the vendors have also produced their independent content and content to actually deliver to us as analysts. So, I'm not sure who will be there. I like you, but you'll be on the ground. You'll be able to report back and let us know exactly who turned up. But from my point of view, I've had so many pre-briefs already, the difference between this year and previous years, I used to get loads of pre-briefs and then have to go do the briefs as well. So this year I've got the pre-brief so I can sit back, put my feet up and wait for your report to come back as to what's happening on the ground. >> You got it. Okay, let's get into a little bit and talk about Telco infrastructure and the state, where it is today, where it's going, Chris, how would you describe the current state of Telco infrastructure? Where does it need to go? Like, what is the ideal future state look like for Telcos in your view? >> So there's always a bit of an identity crisis when it comes to Telco. I think going forward, the connectivity piece was seen as being table stakes, and then people thought where can we go beyond connectivity? And we'll come back to that later. But actually to the connectivity under the scenario I just described of people, buildings, things, and society, we've got to do a lot more work to make that connectivity extend, to be more reliable, to be more secure. So, the state of the network is that we have been building out infrastructure, which includes fiber to connect households and businesses. It includes that next move to cellular from 4G to 5G. It obviously includes Wi-Fi, wherever we've got that as well. And actually it's been a pretty good state, as you said in your opening comments they've done a pretty good job keeping us all connected during the pandemic, whether we're a fixed centric market like the UK with a lot of mobile on top and like the US, or in many markets in Africa and Asia, where we're very mobile centric. So, the fact is that every country market is different, so we should never make too many assumptions at a very top level, but building out that network, building out the services, focusing on that connectivity and making sure we get that cost of delivery right, because competition is pushing us towards having and not ever increasing prices, because we don't want to pay a lot extra every time. But the big issue for me is how do we bring together the IT and the network parts of this story to make sure that we build that efficiency in, and that brings in many questions that we going to touch upon now around Cloud and Hyperscalers around who plays in the ecosystem. >> Well, as you know, Telco is not my wheelhouse, but hanging around with you, I've learned, you've talked a lot about the infrastructure being fit for purpose. It's easy from an IT perspective. Oh yeah, it's fossilized, it's hardened, and it's not really flexible, but the flip side of that coin is as you're pointing out, it's super reliable. So, the big talk today is, "Okay, we're going to open up the network, open systems, and Open RAN, and open everything and microservices and containers. And so, the question is this, can you mimic that historical reliability in that open platform? >> Well, for me, this is the big trade-off and in my great Telco debate every year, I always try and put people against each other to try and to literally debate the future. And one of the things we looked at was is a more open network against this desire of the Telcos to actually have a smaller supplier roster. And of course, as a major corporation, these are on a national basis, very large companies, not large compared to the Hyperscalers for example, but they're large organizations, and they're trying to slim down their organization, slim down the supplier ecosystem. So actually in some ways, the more open it becomes, the more someone's got to manage and integrate all those pieces together. And that isn't something we want to do necessarily. So, I see a real tension there between giving more and more to the traditional suppliers. The Nokia's, Ericsson's, Huawei's, Amdocs and so on, the Ciscos. And then the people coming in breaking new ground like Mavenir and come in, and the sort of approach that Rakuten and Curve taken in bringing in more open and more malleable pieces of smaller software. So yeah, it's a real challenge. And I think as an industry which is notorious for being slow moving, actually we've begun to move relatively quickly, but not necessarily all the way through the organization. We've got plenty of stuff sitting on major or mainframes still in the back of the organization. But of course, as mobile has come in, we've started to deal much more closely, uninteractively in real time, God forbid, with the customers. So actually, at that front end, we've had to do things a lot more quickly. And that's where we're seeing the quickest adaptation to what you might see in your IT environment as being much more, continuous development, continuous improvement, and that sort of on demand delivery. >> Yeah, and we're going to get to that sort of in the Cloud space, but I want to now touch on Telco transformation which is sort of the main theme of this episode. And there's a lot of discussion on this topic, can Telcos move beyond connectivity and managing fiber? Is this a mandate? Is it a pipe dream that's just aspirational? Can they attack adjacencies to grow beyond the 1% a year? I mean, they haven't been successful historically. What are those adjacencies that might be, an opportunity and how will that ecosystem develop? >> Sure. >> So Chris, can and should Telcos try to move beyond core connectivity? Let's start there. >> I like what you did there by saying pipe dreams. Normally, pipe is a is a negative comment in the telecom world. But pipe dream gives it a real positive feel. So can they move beyond connectivity? Well, first of all, connectivity is growing in terms of the number of things being connected. So, in that sense, the market is growing. What we pay for that connectivity is not necessarily growing. So, therefore the mandate is absolutely to transform the inner workings and reduce the cost of delivery. So, that's the internal perspective. The external perspective is that we've tried in many Telcos around the world to break into those adjacent markets, being around media, being enterprise, being around IOT, and actually for the most part they've failed. And we've seen some very significant recent announcements from AT&T, Verizon, BT, beginning to move away from, owning content and not delivering content, but owning content. And the same as they've struggled often in the enterprise market to really get into that, because it's a well-established channel of delivery bringing all those ecosystem players in. So, actually rather than the old Telco view of we going to move into adjacent markets and control those markets, actually moving into them and enabling fellow ecosystem players to deliver the service is what I think we're beginning to see a lot more of now. And that's the big change, it's actually learning to play with the other people in the ecosystem. I always use a phrase that there's no room for egos in the ecosystem. And I think Telcos went in initially with an ego thinking we're really important, we are on connectivity. But actually now they're beginning to approach the ecosystem things saying, "How can we support partners? How can we support everyone in this ecosystem to deliver the services to consumers, businesses and whomever in this evolving ecosystem?" So, there are opportunities out there, plenty of them, but of course, like any opportunity, you've got to approach it in the right way. You've got to get the right investment in place. You've got to approach it with the right open API so everyone can integrate with your approach, and approach it, do I say with a little bit of humility to say, "Hey, we can bring this to the table, how do we work together? >> Well, it's an enormous market. I think you've shared with me, it's like 1.4 trillion. And I want to stay on these adjacencies for a minute, because one of the obvious things that Telcos will talk about is managed services. And I know we have to be careful of that term in an IT context, that it's different in a, you're talking about managing connectivity, but there's professional services. That's a logical sort of extension of their business and probably a safe adjacency, maybe not even adjacency, but they're not going to get into devices. I mean, they'll resell devices, but they're not going to be, I would presume not go back to trying to make devices, but there's certainly the edge and that's so, it'll define in opaque, but it's huge. If there's 5G, there's the IT component and that's probably a partnership opportunity. And as you pointed out, there's the ecosystem, but I wonder, how do you think about 5G as an adjacency or indoor opportunity? Is it a revenue opportunity for Telcos or is that just something that is really aspirational? >> Oh, absolutely it's a revenue opportunity, but I prefer to think of 5G as being a sort of a metaphor for the whole future of telecom. So, we usually talk, and MWC would normally talk about 5G just as a mobile solution. Of course, what you can get with, you can use this fixed wireless access approach, where the roots that sits in your house or your building. So, it's a potential replacement for some fixed lines. And of course, it's also, gives you the ability to build out, let's say in a manufacturing or a campus environment, a private 5G network. So, many of the early opportunities we're seeing with 5G are actually in that more private network environment addressing those very low latency, and high bandwidth requirements. So yeah, there are plenty of opportunities. Of course, the question here is, is connectivity enough, or especially with your comment around the edge, at the edge we need to manage connectivity, storage, compute, analytics, and of course the applications. So, that's a blend of players. It's not going to be in the hands of one player. So yes, plenty of opportunities but understanding what comes the other way from the customer base, where that's, you and I in our homes or outward as an about, or from a business point of view, an office or a campus environment, that's what should be driving, and not the technology itself. And I think this is the trap that the industry has fallen into many times, is we've got a great new wave of technology coming, how can we possibly deliver it to everybody rather than listening to what the customers really require and delivering it in a way consumable by all those different markets. >> Yeah now, of course all of these topics blend together. We try to keep them separately, but we're going to talk about Cloud, we're going to talk about competition, But one of the areas that we don't have a specific agenda item on is, is data and AI. And of course there's all this data flowing through the network, so presumably it's an opportunity for the Telcos. At the same time, they're not considered AI experts. They do when you talk about Edge, they would appear to have the latency advantage because of the last mile and their proximity, to various end points. But the Cloud is sort of building out as well. How do you think about data and AI as an opportunity for Telco? >> I think the whole data and AI piece for me sits on top of the cake or pie, whatever you want to call it. What we're doing with all this connectivity, what we're doing with all these moving parts and gathering information around it, and building automation into the delivery of the service, and using the analytics, whether you call it ML or AI, it doesn't really matter. But actually using that information to deliver a better service, a better outcome. Now, of course, Telcos have had much of this data for years and years, for decades, but they've never used it. So, I think what's happening is, the Cloud players are beginning to educate many of the Telcos around how valuable this stuff is. And that then brings in that question of how do we partner with people using open APIs to leverage that data. Now, do the Telcos keep hold of all that data? Do they let the Cloud players do all of it? No, it's going to be a combination depending on particular environments, and of course the people owning their devices also have a vested interest in this as well. So, you've always got to look at it end to end and where the data flows are, and where we can analyze it. But I agree that analysis on the device at the Edge, and perhaps less and less going back to the core, which is of course the original sort of mandate of the Cloud. >> Well, we certainly think that most of the Edge is going to be about AI inferencing, and then most of the data is going to stay at the edge. Some will come back for sure. And that is big opportunity for whether you're selling compute or conductivity, or maybe storage as well, but certainly insights at the Edge. >> Everything. >> Yeah. >> Everything, yeah. >> Let's get into the Cloud discussion and talk about the Hyperscalers, the big Hyperscaler elephant in the room. We're going to try to dig into what role the Cloud will play in the transformation of telecoms on Telecom TV at the great Telco debate. You likened the Hyperscalers, Chris, to Dementors from Harry Potter hovering over the industry. So, the question is, are the Cloud players going to suck the value out of the Telcos? Or are they more like Dobby the elf? They're powerful, there's sometimes friendly but they're unpredictable. >> Thank you for extending that analogy. Yes, it got a lot of reaction when I use that, but I think it indicates some of the direction of power shift where, we've got to remember here that Telcos are fundamentally national, and they're restricted by regulation, and the Cloud players are global, perhaps not as global as they'd like be, but some regional restrictions, but the global players, the Hyperscalers, they will use that power and they they will extend their reach, and they are extending their reach. If you think they now command some fantastic global networks, in some ways they've replaced some of the Telco international networks, all the submarine investments that tend to be done primarily for the Hyperscalers. So, they're building that out. So, as soon as you get onto their network, then you suddenly become part of that environment. And that is reducing some of the spend on the longer distances we might have got in the past approaches from the Telcos. Now, does that mean they're going to go all the way down and take over the Telcos? I don't believe so, because it's a fundamentally different business digging fiber in people's streets and delivering to the buildings, and putting antennas up. So, they will be a coexistence. And in fact, what we've already seen with Cloud and the Hyperscalers is that they're working much more close together than people might imagine. Now, you mentioned about data in the previous question, Google probably the best known of the of the AI and ML delivers from the Cloud side, working with many of the Telcos, even in some cases to actually have all the data outsourced into the Google Cloud for analytics purposes. They've got the power, the heavy lifting to do that. And so, we begin to see that, and obviously with shifting of workloads as appropriate within the Telco networking environment, we're seeing that with AWS, and of course with Azure as well. And Azure of course acquired a couple of companies in affirmed and Metro switch, which actually do some of the formal 5G core and the likes there within the connectivity environment. So, it's not clean cuts. And to go back to the analogy, those Dementors are swooping around and looking for opportunities, and we know that they will pick up opportunities, and they will extend their reach as far as they can down to that edge. But of course, the edge is where, as you rightly say, the Telcos have the control, they don't necessarily own the customer. I don't believe anyone owns the customer in this digital environment, because digital allows you to move your allegiance and your custom elsewhere anyway. So, but they do own that access piece, and that's what's important from a national point of view, from an economic point of view. And that's why we've seen some of the geopolitical activity banning Huawei from certain markets, encouraging more innovation through open ecosystem plays. And so, there is a tension there between the local Telco, the local market and the Hyperscaler market, but fundamentally they've got an absolute brilliant way of working together using the best of both worlds to deliver the services that we need as an economy. >> Well, and we've talked about this you and I in the past where the Telcos, portions of the Telco network could move into the Cloud. And there of course the Telcos all run the big data centers, and portions of that IT infrastructure could move into the Cloud. But it's very clear, they're not going to give up the entire family jewels to the Cloud players. Why would they? But there are portions of their IT that they could move into. Particularly, in the front end, they want to build like everybody. They want to build an abstraction layer. They're not going to move their core systems and their backend Oracle databases, they're going to put a brick wall around those, but they wanted abstraction layer, and they want to take advantage of microservices and use that data from those transaction systems. But the web front end stuff makes sense to put into Cloud. So, how do you think about that? >> I think you've hit the nail on the head. So you can't move those big backend systems straight away, gradually over time, you will, but you've got to go for those easy wins. And certainly in the research I've been doing with many of my clients, they're suggested that front end piece, making sure that you can onboard customers more easily, you can get the right mix of services. You can provide the omnichannel interaction from that customer experience that everybody talks about, for which the industry is not very well known at all by the way. So, any improvement on that is going to be good from an MPS point of view. So yeah, leveraging what we might, what we call BSS OSS in the telecom world, and actually putting that into the Cloud, leveraging both the Hyperscalers, but also by the way, many of the traditional players who people think haven't moved Cloud wards, but they are moving Cloud wards and they're embracing microservices and Cloud native. So, what you would have seen if we'd been in person down in Barcelona next week, would be a lot of the vendors who perhaps traditionally seems a bit slow moving, actually have done a lot of work to move their portfolio into the Cloud and into Cloud native environments. And yes, as you say, we can use that front end, we can use the API openness that's developed by people at the TM forum, to actually make sure we don't have to do the backend straight away, do it over time. Because of course the thing that we're not touching upon here, is the revenue stream is a consistent revenue stream. So, just because you don't need to change the backend to keep your revenue stream going, this is on a new, it keeps delivering every month, we keep paying our 50, 40, whatever bucks a month into the Telco pot. That's why it's such a big market, and people aren't going to stop doing that. So, I think the dynamics of the industry, we often spend a lot of time thinking about the inner workings of it and the potential of adjacent markets, whereas actually, we keep paying for this stuff, we keep pushing revenue into the pockets of all the Telcos. So, it's not a bad industry to be in, even if they were just pushed back to be in the access market, it's a great business. We need it more and more. The elasticity of demand is very inelastic, we need it. >> Yeah, it's the mother of old golden geese. We don't have a separate topic on security, and I want to touch on security here, is such an important topic. And it's top of mind obviously for everybody, Telcos, Hyperscalers, the Hyperscalers have this shared responsibility model, you know it well. A lot of times it's really confusing for customers. They don't realize it until there has been a problem. The Telcos are going to be very much tuned into this. How will all this openness, and we're going to talk about technology in a moment, but how will this transformation in your view, in the Cloud, with the shared responsibility model, how will that affect the whole security posture? >> Security is a great subject, and I do not specialize in it. I don't claim to be an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I would say security for me is a bit like AI and analytics. It's everywhere. It's part of everything. And therefore you cannot think of it as a separate add on issue. So, every aspect, every element, every service you build into your micro services environment has to think about how do you secure that connection, that transaction, how do you secure the customer's data? Obviously, sovereignty plays a role in that as well in terms of where it sits, but at every level of every connection, every hop that we look through, every route to jump, we've got to see that security is built in. And in some ways, it's seen as being a separate part of the industry, but actually, as we collapse parts of the network down, we're talking about bringing optical and rooting together in many environments, security should be talked about in the same breath. So when I talked about Edge, when I talked about connectivity, storage, compute, analytics, I should've said security as well, because I absolutely believe that is fundamental to every chain in the link and let's face it, we've got a lot of links in the chain. >> Yeah, 100%. Okay, let's hit on technologies and competition, we kind of blend those together. What technology should we be paying attention to that are going to accelerate this transformation. We hear a lot about 5G, Open RAN. There's a lot of new tech coming in. What are you watching? Who are the players that we maybe should be paying attention to, some that you really like, that are well positioned? >> We've touched upon it in various of the questions that have proceeded this. So, the sort of Cloudification of the networking environment is obviously really important. The automation of the process we've got to move away from bureaucratic manual processes within these large organizations, because we've got to be more efficient, we've got to be more reliable. So, anything which is related to automation. And then the Open RAN question is really interesting. Once again, you raised this topic of when you go down an Open RAN routes or any open route, it ultimately requires more integration. You've got more moving parts from more suppliers. So, therefore there are potential security issues there, depending on how it's defined, but everybody is entering the Open RAN market. There are some names that you will see regularly next week, being pushed, I'm not going to push them anymore, because some of them just attract the oxygen of attention. But there are plenty out there. The good news is, the key vendors who come from the more traditional side are also absolutely embracing that and accept the openness. But I think the piece which probably excites me more, apart from the whole shift towards Cloud and microservices, is the coming together, the openness between the IT environment and the networking environment. And you see it, for example, in the Open RAN, this thing called the RIC, the RAN Interconnection Controller. We're actually, we're beginning to find people come from the IT side able to control elements within the wireless controller piece. Now that that starts to say to me, we're getting a real handle on it, anybody can manage it. So, more specialization is required, but understanding how the end to end flow works. What we will see of course is announcements about new devices, the big guys like Apple and Samsung do their own thing during the year, and don't interrupt their beat with it with MWC, but you'll see a lot of devices being pushed by many other providers, and you'll see many players trying to break into the different elements of the market. But I think mostly, you'll see the people approaching it from more and more Cloudified angle where things are much more leveraging, that Cloud capability and not relying on the sort of rigid and stodgy infrastructure that we've seen in the past >> Which is kind of interesting because Cloud, a lot of the Clouds are Walled Gardens, at the same time they host a lot of open technologies, and I think as these two worlds collide, IT and the Telco industry, it's going to be interesting to see how the Telco developer ecosystem evolves. And so, that's something that we definitely want to watch. You've got a comment there? >> Yeah, I think the Telco developer they've not traditionally been very big in that area at all, have they? They've had their traditional, if you go back to when you and I were kids, the plain old telephone service was a, they were a one trick pony, and they've moved onto that. In some ways, I'd like them to move on and to have the one trick of plain old broadband that we just get broadband delivered everywhere. So, there are some issues about delivering service to all parts of every country, and obviously the globe, whether we do that through satellite, we might see some interesting satellite stuff coming out during NWC. There's an awful lot of birds flying up there trying to deliver signal back to the ground. Traditionally, that's not been very well received, with the change in generation of satellite might help do that. But we've known traditionally that a lot of developer activity in there, what it does bring to the four though, Dave, is this issue of players like the Ciscos and Junipers, and all these guys of the world who bring a developer community to the table as well. This is where the ecosystem play comes in, because that's where you get the innovation in the application world, working with channels, working with individual applications. And so it's opening up, it's basically building a massive fabric that anybody can tap into, and that's what becomes so exciting. So, the barriers to entry come down, but I think it will see us settling down, a stabilization of relationship between the Telcos and the Hyperscalers, because they need each other as we talked about previously, then the major providers, the Ciscos, Nokias, Ericssons, Huawei's, the way they interact with the Telcos. And then allowing that level of innovation coming in from the smaller players, whether it's on a national or a global basis. So, it's actually a really exciting environment. >> So I want to continue that theme and just talk about Telco in the enterprise. And Chris, on this topic, I want to just touch on some things and bring in some survey data from ETR, Enterprise Technology Research, our partner. And of course the Telcos, they've got lots of data centers. And as we talked about, they're going to be moving certain portions into the Cloud, lots of the front end pieces in particular, but let's look at the momentum of some of the IT players within the ETR dataset, and look at how they compare to some of the Telcos that ETR captures specifically within the Telco industry. So, we filtered this data on the Telco industry. So, this is our X, Y graph that we show you oftentimes on the vertical axis, is net score which measures spending momentum, and in the horizontal axis is market share, which is a measure of pervasiveness in the dataset. Now, this data is for shared accounts just in the Telco sector. So we filtered on certain sectors, like within the technology sectors, Cloud, networking, and so it's narrow, it's a narrow slice of the 1500. It respondents, it represents about 133 shared accounts. And a couple of things to jump right out. Within the Telco industry, it's no surprise, but Azure and AWS have massive presence on the horizontal axis, but what's notable as they score very highly in the vertical axis, with elevated spending velocity on their platforms within Telco. Google Cloud doesn't have as much of a presence, but it's elevated as well. Chris was talking about their data posture before, Arista and Verizon, along with VMware are also elevated, as is Aruba, which is HPEs networking division, but they don't have the presence on the horizontal axis. And you got Red Hat OpenStack is actually quite prominent in Telco as we've reported in previous segments. Is no surprise You see Akamai there. Now remember, this survey is weighted toward enterprise IT, so you have to take that into consideration, but look at Cisco, very strong presence, nicely elevated as is Equinox, both higher than many of the others including Dell, but you could see Dell actually has pretty respectable spending in Telco. It's an area that they're starting to focus on more. And then you got that cluster below, your Juniper, AT&T, Oracle, the rest of HPE TELUM and Lumen which is formerly, century link via IBM. Now again, I'm going to caution you. This is an enterprise IT heavy survey, but the big takeaway is the Cloud players have a major presence inside of firms that say they're in the telecommunications industry. And certain IT players like Cisco, VMware and Red Hat appear to be well positioned inside these accounts. So Chris, I'm not sure if any of this commentary resonates with you, but it seems that the Telcos would love to partner up with traditional IT vendors and Cloud players, and maybe find ways to grow their respective businesses. >> I think some of the data points you brought out there are very important. So yes, we've seen a Microsoft Azure and AWS very strong working with Telcos. We've seen Google Cloud platform actually really aggressively pushed into the market certainly the last 12, 24 months. So yeah, they're well positioned, and they all come from a slightly different background. As I said, the Google with this, perhaps more data centric approach in its analytics, tools very useful, AWS with this outpost reaching out, connecting out, and as you'll, with its knowledge of the the Microsoft business market certainly pushing into private networks as well, by the way. So yeah, and Cisco, of course in there does have, and it's a mass scale division, a lot of activity there, some of the people collapsing, some of that rooting an obstacle together, their big push on Silicon. So, what you've got here is a sort of cross representation of many of the different sorts of suppliers who are active in this market. Now Telcos is a big spenders, the telecom market, as we said, a $1.4 trillion market, they spend a lot, they probably have to double bubble spend at the moment to get over the hump of 5G investment, to build out fiber where they need to build out. So, any anything that relates to that is of course a major spending opportunity, a major market opportunity for players. And we know when you need the infrastructure behind it, whether it's in data centers or in their own data centers or in the Cloud to deliver against it. So, what I do like about this as an analyst, a lot of people would focus on one particular piece of the market. So you specialize on handsets, people specialize on home markets and home gateways. So, I tend to sit back and try and look at the big picture, the whole picture. And I think we're beginning to see some very good momentum where people are, where companies are building upon, of course their core business within the telecom industry, extending it out. But the lines of demarcation are blurring between enterprise, Telco, and indeed moving down into small business. And you think about the SD-WAN Market, which came from nowhere to build a much more flexible solution for connecting people over the wide area network, which has been brilliant during the pandemic, because it's allowed us to extend that to home, but be of course, build a campus ready for the future as well. So there are plenty of opportunities out there. I think the big question in my mind is always about from going into the Telco, as I said, whether they wannna reduce the number of suppliers on the roster. So that puts a question mark against some of the open approaches, and then from the Telco to the end customer, because it goes to the Telcos, 30% of their revenue comes from the enterprise market, 60% from the consumer market. How do they leverage the channel? Which includes all the channels, we talked about security, all of the IT stuff that you've already touched upon and the Cloud. It's going to be a very interesting mix and balancing act between different channels to get the services that the customers want. And I think increasingly, customers are more aware of the opportunities open to them to reach back into this ecosystem and say, "Yeah, I want a piece of humans to Telco, but I want it to come to me through my local integrated channel, because I need a bit of their expertise on security." So, fascinating market, and I think not telecom's no longer considered in isolation, but very much as part of that broader digital ecosystem. >> Chris, it's very hard to compress an analysis of a $1.4 trillion business into 30 or 35 minutes, but you're just the guy to help me do it. So, I got to really thank you for participating today and bringing your knowledge. Awesome. >> Do you know, it's my pleasure. I love looking at this market. Obviously I love analogies like Harry Potter, which makes it bring things to life. But at the end of the day, we as people, we want to be connected, we as business, we want to be connected, in society we want to be connected. So, the fundamental of this industry are unbelievably strong. Let's hope that governments don't mess with it too much. And let's hope that we get the right technology comes through, and help support that world of connectivity going forward. >> All right, Chris, well, I'll be texting you from Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, and many thanks to my colleague, Chris Lewis, he brought some serious knowledge today and thank you. And remember, I publish each week on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com. And these episodes are all available as podcasts. You just got to search for Breaking Analysis podcasts. You can always connect with me on twitter @dvellante or email me at dave.vellante@siliconangle.com. And you can comment on my LinkedIn post, and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante, for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>>from around the globe. It's the Cube with digital coverage of AWS reinvent 2020 sponsored by Intel, AWS and our community partners. >>Everyone welcome to the cubes Live coverage of AWS reinvent 2020 virtual were virtual this year We are the Cube Virtual I'm your host John for a joint day Volonte for keynote analysis Andy Jassy just delivered his live keynote. This is our live keynote analysis. Dave. Great to see you, Andy Jassy again. You know their eight year covering reinvent their ninth year. We're virtual. We're not in person. We're doing it. >>Great to see you, John. Even though we're 3000 miles apart, we both have the covert here. Do going Happy birthday, my friend. >>Thank you. Congratulations. Five years ago I was 50 and they had the cake on stage and on the floor. There's no floor, this year's virtual and I think one of the things that came out of Andy Jessie's keynote, obviously, you know, I met with him earlier. Telegraph some of these these moves was one thing that surprised me. He came right out of the gate. He acknowledged that social change, the cultural shift. Um, that was interesting but he went in and did his normal end to end. Slew of announcements, big themes around pivoting. And he brought kind of this business school kind of leadership vibe to the table early talking about what people are experiencing companies like ourselves and others around the change and cultural change around companies and leadership. It takes for the cloud. And this was a big theme of reinvent, literally like, Hey, don't hold on to the old And I kept thinking to myself, David, you and I both are Historians of the tech industry remind me of when I was young, breaking into the business, the mainframe guys and gals, they were hugging onto those mainframes as long as they could, and I looked at it like That's not gonna be around much longer. And they kept No, it's gonna be around. This is this is the state of the art, and then the extinction. Instantly this feels like cloud moment, where it's like it's the wake up call. Hey, everyone doing it the old way. You're done. This is it. But you know, this is a big theme. >>Yes. So, I mean, how do you curate 2.5 3 hours of Andy Jassy. So I tried to break it down at the three things in addition to what you just mentioned about him acknowledging the social unrest and and the inequalities, particularly with black people. Uh, but so I had market leadership. And there's some nuance there that if we have time, I'd love to talk about, uh, the feature innovation. I mean, that was the bulk of his presentation, and I was very pleased. I wrote a piece this weekend. As you know, talk about Cloud 2030 and my main focus was the last 10 years about I t transformation the next 10 years. They're gonna be about organizational and business and industry transformation. I saw a lot of that in jazz ces keynote. So you know, where do you wanna go? We've only got a few minutes here, John, >>but let's break. Let's break down the high level theme before we get into the announcement. The thematic part was, it's about reinventing 2020. The digital transformation is being forced upon us. Either you're in the cloud or you're not in the cloud. Either way, you got to get to the cloud for to survive in this post covert error. Um, you heard a lot about redefining compute new chips, custom chips. They announced the deal with Intel, but then he's like we're better and faster on our custom side. That was kind of a key thing, this high idea of computing, I think that comes into play with edge and hybrid. The other thing that was notable was Jessie's almost announcement of redefining hybrid. There's no product announcement, but he was essentially announcing. Hybrid is changed, and he was leaning forward with his definition of redefining what hybrid cloud is. And I think that to me was the biggest, um, signal. And then finally, what got my attention was the absolute overt call out of Microsoft and Oracle, and, you know, suddenly, behind the scenes on the database shift we've been saying for multiple times. Multiple databases in the cloud he laid that out, said there will be no one thing to rule anything. No databases. And he called out Microsoft would look at Microsoft. Some people like cloud wars. Bob Evans, our good friend, claims that Microsoft been number one in the cloud for like like year, and it's just not true right. That's just not number one. He used his revenue a za benchmark. And if you look at Microsoft's revenue, bulk of it is from propped up from Windows Server and Sequel Server. They have Get up in there that's new. And then a bunch of professional services and some eyes and passed. If you look at true cloud revenue, there's not much there, Dave. They're definitely not number one. I think Jassy kind of throws a dagger in there with saying, Hey, if you're paying for licenses mawr on Amazon versus Azure that's old school shenanigans or sales tactics. And he called that out. That, to me, was pretty aggressive. And then So I finally just cove in management stuff. Democratizing machine learning. >>Let me pick up on a couple things. There actually were a number of hybrid announcements. Um, E C s anywhere E k s anywhere. So kubernetes anywhere containers anywhere smaller outposts, new local zones, announced 12 new cities, including Boston, and then Jesse rattle them off and made a sort of a joke to himself that you made that I remembered all 12 because the guy uses no notes. He's just amazing. He's up there for three hours, no notes and then new wavelength zones for for the five g edge. So actually a lot of hybrid announcements, basically, to your point redefining hybrid. Basically, bringing the cloud to the edge of which he kind of redefined the data center is just sort of another edge location. >>Well, I mean, my point was Is that my point is that he Actually, Reid said it needs to be redefined. Any kind of paused there and then went into the announcements. And, you know, I think you know, it's funny how you called out Microsoft. I was just saying which I think was really pivotal. We're gonna dig into that Babel Babel Fish Open source thing, which could be complete competitive strategy, move against Microsoft. But in a way, Dave Jassy is pulling and Amazon's pulling the same move Microsoft did decades ago. Remember, embrace and extend right Bill Gates's philosophy. This is kind of what they're doing. They have embraced hybrid. They have embraced the data center. They're extending it out. You're seeing outpost, You see, five g, You're seeing these I o t edge points. They're putting Amazon everywhere. That was my take away. They call it Amazon anywhere. I think it's everywhere. They want cloud operations everywhere. That's the theme that I see kind of bubbling out there saying, Hey, we're just gonna keep keep doing this. >>Well, what I like about it is and I've said this for a long time now that the edge is gonna be one by developers. And so they essentially taking AWS and the data center is an AP, and they're bringing that data center is an A P I virtually everywhere. As you're saying, I wanna go back to something you said about leadership and Microsoft and the numbers because I've done a lot of homework on this Aziz, you know, And so Jassy made the point. He makes this point a lot that it's not about the the actual growth rate. Yeah, the other guys, they're growing faster. But there were growing from a much larger base and I want to share with you a nuance because he said he talked about how AWS grew incrementally 10 billion and only took him 12 months. I have quarterly forecast and I've published these on Wiki Bond, a silicon angle. And if you look at the quarterly numbers and now this is an estimate, John. But for Q four, I've got Amazon growing at 25%. That's a year on year as you're growing to 46% and Google growing at 50% 58%. So Google and and Azure much, much higher growth rates that than than Amazon. But what happens when you look at the absolute numbers? From Q three to Q four, Amazon goes from 11.6 billion to 12.4 billion. Microsoft actually stays flat at around 6.76 point eight billion. Google actually drops sequentially. Now I'm talking about sequentially, even though they have 58% growth. So the point of the Jazz is making is right on. He is the only company growing at half the growth rate year on year, but it's sequential. Revenues are the only of the Big Three that are growing, so that's the law of large numbers. You grow more slowly, but you throw off more revenue. Who would you rather be? >>I think I mean, it's clearly that Microsoft's not number one. Amazon's number one cloud certainly infrastructure as a service and pass major themes in the now so we won't go through. We're digging into the analyst Sessions would come at two o'clock in three o'clock later, but they're innovating on those two. They want they one that I would call this member. Jasio says, Oh, we're in the early innings Inning one is I as and pass. Amazon wins it all. They ran the table, No doubt. Now inning to in the game is global. I t. That was a really big part of the announcement. People might have missed that. If you if you're blown away by all the technical and complexity of GP three volumes for EBS and Aurora Surveillance V two or sage maker Feature store and Data Wrangler Elastic. All that all that complex stuff the one take away is they're going to continue to innovate. And I, as in past and the new mountain that they're gonna Klima's global I t spin. That's on premises. Cloud is eating the world and a W s is hungry for on premises and the edge. You're going to see massive surge for those territories. That's where the big spend is gonna be. And that's why you're seeing a big focus on containers and kubernetes and this kind of connective tissue between the data machine layer, modern app layer and full custom. I as on the on the bottom stack. So they're kind of just marching along to the cadence of, uh, Andy Jassy view here, Dave, that, you know, they're gonna listen to customers and keep sucking it in Obama's well and pushing it out to the edge. And and we've set it on the Cube many years. The data center is just a big edge. And that's what Jassy is basically saying here in the keynote. >>Well, and when when Andy Jassy gets pushed on Well, yes, you listen to customers. What about your partners? You know, he'll give examples of partners that are doing very well. And of course we have many. But as we've often said in the Cube, John, if you're a partner in the ecosystem, you gotta move fast. There were three interesting feature announcements that I thought were very closely related to other things that we've seen before. The high performance elastic block storage. I forget the exact name of it, but SAN in a cloud the first ever SAN in the cloud it reminds me of something that pure storage did last year and accelerate so very, very kind of similar. And then the aws glue elastic views. It was sort of like snowflake's data cloud. Now, of course, AWS has many, many more databases that they're connecting, You know, it, uh, stuff like as one. But the way AWS does it is they're copying and moving data and doing change data management. So what snowflake has is what I would consider a true global mesh. And then the third one was quicksight que That reminded me of what thought spots doing with search and analytics and AI. So again, if you're an ecosystem partner, you gotta move fast and you've got to keep innovating. Amazon's gonna do what it has to for customers. >>I think Amazon's gonna have their playbooks when it's all said and done, you know, Do they eat the competition up? I think what they do is they have to have the match on the Amazon side. They're gonna have ah, game and play and let the partners innovate. They clearly need that ecosystem message. That's a key thing. Um, love the message from them. I think it's a positive story, but as you know it's Amazons. This is their Kool Aid injection moment, David. Educational or a k A. Their view of the world. My question for you is what's your take on what wasn't said If you were, you know, as were in the virtual audience, what should have been talk about? What's the reality? What's different? What didn't they hit home? What could they have done? What, your critical analysis? >>Well, I mean, I'm not sure it should have been said, but certainly what wasn't said is the recognition that multi cloud is an opportunity. And I think Amazon's philosophy or belief at the current time is that people aren't spreading workloads, same workload across multiple clouds and splitting them up. What they're doing is they're hedging bets. Maybe they're going 70 30 90 10, 60 40. But so multi cloud, from Amazon standpoint is clearly not the opportunity that everybody who doesn't have a cloud or also Google, whose no distant third in cloud says is a huge opportunity. So it doesn't appear that it's there yet, so that was I wouldn't call it a miss, but it's something that, to me, was a take away that Amazon does not currently see that there's something that customers are clamoring for. >>There's so many threads in here Were unpacked mean Andy does leave a lot of, you know, signature stories that lines in there. Tons of storylines. You know, I thought one thing that that mass Amazon's gonna talk about this is not something that promotes product, but trend allies. I think one thing that I would have loved to Seymour conversation around is what I call the snowflake factor. It snowflake built their business on Amazon. I think you're gonna see a tsunami of kind of new cloud service providers. Come on the scene building on top of AWS in a major way of like, that kind of value means snowflake went public, uh, to the level of no one's ever seen ever in the history of N Y s e. They're on Amazon. So I call that the the next tier cloud scale value. That was one thing I'd like to see. I didn't hear much about the global i t number penetration love to hear more about that and the thing that I would like to have heard more. But Jassy kind of touched a little bit on it was that, he said at one point, and when he talked about the verticals that this horizontal disruption now you and I both know we've been seeing on the queue for years. It's horizontally scalable, vertically specialized with the data, and that's kind of what Amazon's been doing for the past couple of years. And it's on full display here, horizontal integration value with the data and then use machine learning with the modern applications, you get the best of both worlds. He actually called that out on this keynote. So to me, that is a message to all entrepreneurs, all innovators out there that if you wanna change the position in the industry of your company, do those things. There's an opportunity right now to integrate with the cloud to disrupt horizontally, but then on the vertical. So that will be very interesting to see how that plays out. >>And eventually you mentioned Snowflake and I was talking about multi cloud snowflake talks about multi cloud a lot, but I don't even think what they're doing is multi cloud. I think what they're doing is building a data cloud across clouds and their abstracting that infrastructure and so to me, That's not multi Cloud is in. Hey, I run on Google or I run on the AWS or I run on Azure ITT's. I'm abstracting that making that complexity disappeared, I'm creating an entirely new cloud at scale. Quite different. >>Okay, we gotta break it there. Come back into our program. It's our live portion of Cube Live and e. K s Everywhere day. That's multi cloud. If they won't say, that's what I'll say it for them, but the way we go, more live coverage from here at reinvent virtual. We are virtual Cuban John for Dave a lot. They'll be right back.

>>from the Cube Studios in Palo Alto and Boston connecting with thought leaders all >>around the world. This is a cube conversation, Everyone. Welcome to this week's Cube insights, powered by ET are My name is Dave Volante, and we've been reporting every week really on the code. 19. Impact on Budgets Docker Korakia is back in with me soccer. It's great to see you really >>again for having >>your very welcome. Soccer is, of course, the director of research, that we are our data partner and man. I mean, you guys have just been digging into the data or a court reiterate We're down, you know, roughly around minus 5% for the year. The thing about what we're doing here and where they want to stress in the audience that that's going to change. The key point is we don't just do ah, placeholder and update you in December. Every time we get new information, we're going to convey it to you. So let's get right into it. What we want to do today is you kind of part two from the takeaways that we did last week. So let's start with the macro guys. If you bring up the first chart, take us through kind of the top three takeaways. And just to reiterate where we're at >>Yeah, no problem. And look, as you mentioned, uh, what we're doing right now is we're collecting the pulse of CIOs. And so things change on and we continue to expect them to change, you know, in the next few weeks, in the next few months, as things change with it. So just kind of give a recap of the survey and then kind of going through some of our top macro takeaways. So in March mid March, we launched our Technology Spending Intention Survey. We had 1250 CIOs approximately. Take that survey. They provided their updated 2020 verse 2019 spending intentions, right? So effectively, they first Davis, those 20 21st 19 spending intentions in January. And then they went ahead and up state of those based on what happened with move it and then in tandem with that, we did this kind of over 19 drill down survey where we asked CEOs to estimate the budget impact off overnight in versus what they originally forecast in the year. And so that leads us to our first take away here, where we essentially aggregated the data from all these CIOs in that Logan 19 drill down survey. And we saw a revision of 900 basis points so down to a decline of 5%. And so coming into the year, the consensus was about 4% growth. Ah, and now you can see we're down about 5% for the year. And again, that's subject to change. And we're going again re measure that a Z kind of get into June July and we have a couple of months under our belt with the folks at night. The second big take away here is, you know, the industries that are really indicating those declines and spend retail, consumer airlines, financials, telco I key services in consulting. Those are the verticals, as we mentioned last week, that we're really seeing some of the largest Pullbacks and spend from consumers and businesses. So it makes sense that they are revising their budgets downwards the most. And then finally, the last thing we captured that we spoke about last week as well as a few weeks before that, and I think that's really been playing out the last kind of week in 1/2 earnings is CIOs are continuing to press the pedal on digital transformation. Right? We saw that with Microsoft, with service now last night, right, those companies continued the post good numbers and you see good demand, what we're seeing and where those declines that we just mentioned earlier are coming from. It's it's the legacy that's the on premise that your place there's such a concentration of loss and deceleration within some of those companies. And we'll kind of get into that more a Z go through more slides. But that's really what kind of here, you know, that's really what we need to focus on is the declines are coming from very select vendors. >>Yeah, and of course you know where we were in earning season now, and we're paying close attention to that. A lot of people say I just ignore the earnings here, you know, you got the over 19 Mulligan, but But that's really not right. I mean, obviously you want to look at balance sheets, you want to look at cash flows, but also we're squinting through some of the data your point about I t services and insulting is interesting. I saw another research firm put out that you know, services and consulting was going to be OK. Our data does, you know, different. Uh, and we're watching. For instance, Jim Kavanaugh on IBM's earnings call was very specific about the metrics that they're watching. They're obviously very concerned about pricing and their ability. The book business. There we saw the cloud guys announced Google was up in the strong fifties. The estimate is DCP was even higher up in the 80% range. Azure, you know, we'll talk about this killing it. I mean, you guys have been all over of Microsoft and its presence, you know, high fifties aws solid at around 34% growth from a larger base. But as we've been reporting, you know, downturns. They've been they've been good to cloud. >>That's right. And I think, you know, based on the data that we've captured, um, you know, it's people are really pressing the pedal on cloud and SAS with this much remote work, you need to have you know, that structure in place to maintain productivity. >>Okay, let's bring up the next slide. Now. We've been reporting a lot on this sort of next generation work loads Bob one Dato all about storage and infrastructures of service. Compute. There's an obviously some database, but there's a new analytics workload emerging. Uh, and it's kind of replacing, or at least disinter mediating or disrupting the traditional e d ws. I've said for years. CDW is failed to live up to its expectations of 360 degree insights and real time data, and that's really what we're showing here is some of the traditional CDW guys are getting hit on Some of the emerging guys, um, are looking pretty good. So take us through what we're looking at here. Soccer. >>Yeah, no problem. So we're looking at the database data warehousing sector. What you're looking at here is replacement rates. Um And so, as example, if you see up in with roughly 20% replacement, what that means is one out of five people who took the survey for that particular sector for that vendor indicated that they were replacing, and so you can see here for their data. Cloudera, IBM, Oracle. They have very elevated and accelerating replacement rates. And so when we kind of think about this space. You can really see the bifurcation, right? Look how well positioned the Microsoft AWS is. Google Mongo, Snowflake, low replacements, right low, consistent replacements. And then, of course, on the left hand side of the screen, you're really seeing elevated, accelerating. And so this space is It kind of goes with that theme that we've been talking about that we covered last week by application, right when you think about the declines that you're seeing and spend again, it's very targeted for a lot of these kind of legacy legacy vendors. And we're again. We're seeing a lot of the next gen players that Microsoft AWS in your post very strong data. And so here, looking within database, it's very clear as to which vendors are well positioned for 2020 and which ones look like they're being ripped out and swapped out in the next few months. >>So this to me, is really interesting. So you know, you you've certainly reported on the impact that snowflake is having on Terra data. And in some of IBM's business, the old man, he's a business. You can see that here. You know, it's interesting. During the Hadoop days, Cloudera Horton works when they realize that it didn't really make money on Hadoop. They sort of getting the data management and data database and you're seeing that is under pressure. It's kind of interesting to me. Oracle, you know, is still not what we're seeing with terror data, right, Because they've got a stranglehold on the marketplace That's right, hanging in there. Right? But that snowflake would no replacements is very impressive. Mongo consistent performer. And in Google aws, Microsoft AWS supports with Red Shift. They did a one time license with Park Cell, which was an MPP database. They totally retooled a thing. And now they're sort of interestingly copycatting snowflake separating compute from storage and doing some other moves. And yet they're really strong partners. So interesting >>is going on and even, you know, red shift dynamodb all. They all look good. All these all these AWS products continue screen Very well. Ah, in the data warehousing space, So yeah, to your point, there's a clear divergence of which products CIOs want to use and which ones they no longer want in their stack. >>Yeah, the database market is very much now fragment that it used to be in an Oracle db two sequel server. As you mentioned, you got a lot of choices. The Amazon. I think I counted, you know, 10 data stores, maybe more. Dynamodb Aurora, Red shift on and on and on. So a really interesting space, a lot of activity in that new workload that I'm talking about taking, Ah, analytic databases, bringing data science, pooling into that space and really driving these real time insights that we've been reporting on. So that's that's quite an exciting space. Let's talk about this whole workflow. I t s m a service now. Just just announced, uh, we've been consistently crushing it. The Cube has been following them for many, many years, whether, you know, from the early days of Fred Luddy, Bruce Lukman, the short time John Donahoe. And now Bill McDermott is the CEO, but consistent performance since the AIPO. But what are we actually showing here? Saga? Yeah, You bring up that slot. Thank you. >>So our key take away on kind of the i t m m i t s m i t workflow spaces. Look, it's best in breed, which is service now, or some of the lower cost providers. Right There's really no room for middle of the pack, so >>this is an >>interesting charts. And so what you're looking at here, there's a few directives, so kind of walk you through it and then I'll walk through. The actual results is we're looking within service now accounts. And so we're seeing how these companies are doing within or among customers that are using service. Now, today, where you're looking at on the ex, access is essentially shared market share our shared customers, and then on the Y axis you're seeing essentially the spend velocity off those vendors within service. Now's outs, right? So if the vendor was doing well, you would see them moving up into the right, right? That means they're having more customer overlap with service now, and they're also accelerating Spend, but you can see if you will get zendesk. If you look at BMC, it's a managed right. You can see there either losing market share and spend within service now accounts or they're losing spend right and zendesk is another example Here, Um, and what's actually interesting is, and we've had a lot of anecdotal evidence from CIOs is that look they start with service. Now it's best in breed, but a few of them have said, Look, it's got expensive, Um, and so they would move over Rezendes. And then they would look at it versus a conference that last year, and we had a few CEO say, Look at last quarter of the price of zendesk. Andi moved away from Zendesk and subsequently well, with last year. And so it's just it's interesting that, you know, during these times where you know CIOs are reducing their budgets on that look, it's either best of breed or low cost. There's really no room in the middle, and so it's actually kind of interesting. In this space, it's It's an interesting dynamic and being usually it's best of breed or low cost. Rarely do you kind of see both win, and I think that's what kind of makes the space interesting. >>I've been following service now for a number of years. I just make a few comments there. First of all, you know, workday was the gold standard in enterprise software for the longest time and, you know, company and and and I I always considered service now to be kind of part of that you know Silicon Valley Mafia with Frank's Loop. But what's happened is, you know, Sluman did a masterful job of identifying the total available market and executing with demand, and now you know, his successors have picking it beyond there. You know, service now has a market cap that's not quite double, but I mean, I think workday last I checked was in the mid thirties. Service now is market valuation is up in the 60 billion range. I mean, they announced, um uh, just recently, very interestingly, they be expectations. They lowered their guidance relative to consensus guide, but I think the street hose, first of all, they beat their numbers and they've got that SAS model, that very predictable model. And I think people are saying, Look there, just leaving meat on the bone so they can continue to be because that's been their sort of m o these last several years. So you got to like their positioning and you get to talk to customers. They are pricey. You do hear complaints about that, and they've got a strong lock spec. But generally I got my experiences. If people can identify business value and clear productivity, they work through the lock in, you know, they'll just fight it out in the negotiations with procurement. >>That's right, and two things on that. So with service now and and even Salesforce, right, they are a platform like approach type of vendors right where you build on them. And that's what makes them such break companies, right? Even if they have, you know, little nicks and knacks here and there. When they report people see past that right, they understand their best of breed. You build your companies on the service now's and the sales forces of the world. And to the second point, you're exactly right. Businesses want to maintain consistent productivity on, and I think that, you know, is it kind of resonates with the theme, right, doubling down on Cloud and sas. Um, as as you have all this remote work, as you have kind of, you know, questionable are curating marquee a macro environment organizations want to make sure that their employees continue to execute that they're generating consistent productivity. And using these kind of best of breed tools is the way to go. >>It's interesting you mentioned, uh, salesforce and service now for years I've been saying they're on a collision course we haven't seen yet because they're both platforms. I still, uh I'm waiting for that to happen. Let's bring up the next card and let's get into networking way talk. Um Ah. Couple of weeks ago, about the whole shift from traditional Mpls moving to SD win. And this sort of really lays it out. Take us through the data here, please. >>Yeah, no problem. So we're just looking at a handful of vendors here. Really? We're looking at networking vendors that have the highest adoption rates within cloud accounts. And so what we did was we looked inside of aws azure GCC, right. We essentially isolated just those customers. And then we said which networking vendors are seeing the best spend data and the most adoptions within those cloud accounts. And so you get you can kind of see some, uh, some themes here, right? SD lan. Right. You can see Iraqi their VM. Where nsx. You see some next gen load balance saying are they're on the cdn side right then. And so you're seeing a theme here of more next gen players on You're not really seeing a lot of the mpls vendors here, right? They're the ones that have more flattening, decreasing and replacing data. And so the reason just kind of going on this slide is you know, when you kind of think about the networking space as a whole, this is where adoptions are going. This is this is where spends billing and expanded, arise it. And what we just talked about >>your networking such a fascinating space to me because you got you got the leader and Cisco That has helped 2/3 of the market for the longest time, despite competitors like Arista, Juniper and others trying to get in the Air Force and NSX. And the big Neisseria acquisition, you know, kind of potentially disrupted that. But you can see, you know, Cisco, they don't go down without a fight. And ah, there, let's take a look at the next card on Cdn. You know, this is interesting. Uh, you know, you think with all this activity around work from home and remote offices, there's a hot area, But what are we looking at here? >>Yeah, no problem. And that's right, right? You would think. And so we're looking at Cdn players here you would think with the uptake in traffic, you would see fantastic. That scores right for all the cdn vendor. So what you're looking at here and again there's a few lenses on here, so I kind of walk. You kind of walk the audience through here is first we isolated only those individuals that were accelerating their budgets due to work from home. Right. So we've had this conversation now for a few weeks where support employees working from home. You did see a decent number of organizations. I think it was 20 or 30% of organizations at the per server that indicated they're actually accelerate instead. So we're looking at those individuals. And then what we're doing is we're seeing how are how's Cloudflare and aka my performing within those accounts, right? And so we're looking at those specific customers and you could just see within Cloudflare and we practice and security and networking which by more the Cdn piece, How consistent elevated the date is right? This is spend in density, right? Not overall market share is obviously aka my you know, their brand father CD ends. They have the most market share and if you look at optimized to the right. Now you can see the spend velocity is not very good. It's actually negative across boats sector. So you know it's not. We're not saying that. Look, there's a changing of the guard that's occurring right now. We're still relatively small compared talk my But there's just such a start on trust here and again, it kind of goes to what we're talking about. Our macro themes, right? CIOs are continuing to invest in next gen Technologies, and better technologies on that is having an impact on some of these legacy. And, you know, grandfather providers. >>Well, I mean, I think as we enter this again, I've said a number of times. It's ironic overhead coming into a new decade. And you're seeing this throughout the I T. Stack, where you've got a lot of disruptors and you've got companies with large install bases, lot of on Prem or a lot of historical legacy. Yeah, and it's very hard for them to show growth. They often times squeeze R and D because they gotta serve Wall Street. And this is the kind of dilemma they're in, and the only good news with a comma here is there is less bad security go from negative 20% to a negative 8% net score. Um, but wow, what a what a contrast, but to your point, much, much smaller base, but still very relevant. We've seen this movie before. Let's let's wrap with another area that we've talked about. What is virtualization? Desktop virtualization? Beady eye again. A beneficiary of the work from home pivot. Um, And we're focused here, right on Fortune 500 net scores. But give us the low down on this start. >>Yeah, So this is something that look, I think it's it's pretty obvious to into the market you're seeing an uptake and spend across the board versus three months ago in a year ago and spending, etc. Among your desktop virtualization players, there's FBI, right? So that's gonna be your VPN right now. Obviously, they reported pretty good numbers there, so this is an obvious slide, but we wanted to kind of throw it in there. Just say, look, you know, these organizations are seeing nice upticks incent, you know, within the virtualization sectors, specifically within Fortune 500 again, that's kind of, you know, work from home spend that we're seeing here, >>right? So, I mean, this is really a 100% net score in the Fortune 500 for workspaces is pretty amazing. And I think the shared in on this that the end was actually quite large. It wasn't like single digits, Many dozens. I remember when Workspaces first came out, it maybe wasn't ready for prime time. But clearly there's momentum there, and we're seeing this across the board saga. Thanks so much for coming in this week. Really appreciate it. We're gonna be in touch with with you with the TR. We're gonna continue to report on this, but start Dr stay safe. And thanks again. >>Thanks again. Appreciate it. Looking for to do another one. >>All right. Thank you. Everybody for watching this Cube insights Powered by ET are this is Dave Volante for Dr Sadaaki. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. I published weekly on wiki bond dot com Uh, and also on silicon angle dot com Don't forget tr dot Plus, Check out all the action there. Thanks for watching everybody. We'll see you next time. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah

from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston connecting with thought leaders all around the world this is a cube conversation [Music] hello everybody and welcome to this week wiki bond cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis we want to update you on the latest spending data from EGR as you know we've been tracking this weekly saga kodachi is here he's the director of research at ET our saga thanks for coming on thanks for having me again Dave really appreciate it yes so so let me remind everybody so we entered the Year this year 2020 with a consensus IT spend for cast of plus 4% once coronavirus hit ET are launched its latest survey in March and we saw those numbers you'll come down last week we reported well the first report we made was it looked like it was flat last week we reported a slight negative and today we want to update you guys on those numbers so saga before we get into the data just give us the high level on where you guys are at in terms of your survey yeah no problem so currently we are forecasting a decline in global IT budgets about negative 4% I think what's happened you know over the last you know 10 or 15 days is you've just seen more and more information released that's given organizations more of an understanding of just how severe this you know epidemic is and so what we've been able to do on our end is kind of do an event study analysis or simulation analysis kind of what you're seeing here a really pinpoint the time period where organizations understood the severity of the epidemic and then really trying to measure the declines in IT budgets from there great so guys bring that slide back up I want to share with our audience what's happening here so what ETR has done is an event-based analysis and what you can see is where the survey launched on 3/11 you could see how sentiment has declined literally daily as the data rolled in then you see the US declared a national emergency you saw that the federal plan leaked for that you know penned pandemic protect projection and obviously New York became a hot spot and then you can see this the stimulus package in it and sagger it looks like there's a slight uptick here but generally speaking it's down now it could be worse but you guys were the first to report the offset from work it worked from home infrastructure we'll talk about that a little bit talk about this event analysis and what you're seeing here and how you compressed the analysis hosting these events no problem so let's start with a blue line here and just so the audience knows the x-axis is going to be date and the y-axis is going to be annual growth or decline in nit budgets what you're seeing here and if we start with the blue line is we started pulling on 3/11 and on that date we started to ask you know fortune 100 is fortune 500 how their budget was going to change based on the impacts of coded nineteen versus their original expectations coming into coming into the year and again consensus estimates coming to the year were positive four percent so if you track that line all the way through you get to a decline of about one percent now what's the issue of starting polling on 3/11 or using that blue line well one of the big issues is a few days later the US declared a national emergency so more information was released right I think organizations that took the survey in the first two days didn't have a complete picture as to what's going on and then effectively a week later you saw federal documents get leaked stating how bad this epidemic was right in terms of the last 18 18 plus months and so what we did was we did it effectively an event based analysis or defuse different simulation where if you take a look at the yellow and red lines to start what we're doing is we're effectively saying okay let's ignore everyone that took the survey prior to that let's take their budgets in terms of how they indicated change versus their original expectations for 2020 and then let's go ahead and map that and if you look at the yellow line as an example that goes to a decline of 2% and then once I think you know the next shoe dropped in terms of organizations understanding this is not going to be a few weeks or this is not the common cold or flu once organizations knew this was going to be an 18 plus epidemic you can see if we started pulling respondents from there how much more negative it gets and of course once NYC became the epicenter you saw a little another shoe drop so now those those scenarios or simulations are taking us between a decline of three and four percent and then of course if we look at that last purple line there when the stimulus got announced what we are seeing is it looks like it may have bottomed down we have to continue tracking it because you know again it's just a few days since the stimulus is was passed and so let's see if the data starts improve a little bit or at least stabilize but I think from the last three events in terms of the the federal plan being leaked NYC becoming the epicenter and the stimulus it looks like the market now is fully aware of what's going on and now we're kind of seeing some stabilization in the data in terms of the declines for 2020 so between the feds action and the the fiscal stimulus we've we've seen some optimism although people are really cautious of course remember folks this would be worse were it not for the shift in spend to work from home infrastructure not just collaboration and visualization tools but other infrastructure around that network bandwidth security desktop virtualization etc so guys if you bring up the next chart I want to set this up we've been reporting this framework for a while now what this shows is what the sentiment is in terms of the budget change and you can see the gray bar now is 35% it started at 40% so that's dropped so the percentage of CIO saying no change the green is held pretty steady at around 20 to 22% that's it's roughly in there and the red you know has been has been shifting and you can see most of the green ie spending more in 2020 is focused on that you know one to two ten percent but but Sagar bring us up to date now we're going to settle in it right now about three and a half to four percent on the negative side give us some color on this chart please yeah no problem so the best way to connect this chart with what we saw earlier is this is a snapshot so this is a single day so this is the data that is feeding the time series chart kind of help the audience understand what's going on so if we were to look at this exact chart Oh since March 11 you would see that midpoint Average effectively coming down every day and that's effectively what's making up that time series in terms of this chart you know Dave you kind of hit it right on the nail you're kind of seeing the positivity remain or be stable and again that's that work from home infrastructure as you as you mentioned right the collaboration pools no the virtualization support services networking bandwidth all that stuff right being more and more security but on the negative side I think what you're seeing is that again as organizations now understand the severity of the epidemic I think as we understand further and we've talked about this you know a few weeks ago that organizations were anticipating less demand they were anticipating an uptick in broken supply chains now you're starting to see some of that play out and as a result you're seeing organizations get more and more negative and that's why that midpoint average it keeps declining that's why those red bars keep going up is the the impacts in you know based on the data are are now starting to be to be seen and so you know let's see if the stimulus stabilizes this data and we'll continue tracking that you know over the next few weeks the next few months okay so basically we're coming in - three and a half to four percent that's where we are today we're not going to get detailed into some of the vendors today we talked a little bit about that last week and go back to last week's breaking analysis you can see some of that vendor commentary I want to talk about what happens next ETR now we'll go into a two-week quite self-imposed quiet period and really start crunching the data at the end of that quiet period they will release to their private clients the their latest thinking in a webcast after that time we at the cube are allowed to share public information and we're gonna drill down into some of the segments that our community is most interested in but-but-but etrs going quiet now so saga maybe you can explain that sequence and fill in any holes that I missed there yeah no problem the next two weeks so we've we've collected a tremendous amount of data you know we're over you know we're at a hundred fortune 100 organizations you know almost three four hundred global two thousand organizations and so we're at a point now where it's time to start aggregating the data start really analyzing it going through this Koga drill down that we conducted but also we conducted a tremendous study on technology spending intentions of crossing over 350 vendors dozens of Technology sectors and so now it's really a time to kind of drill in and you know what what we're looking for or even some of the biggest takeaways from from this Cove it you know drill down is you know if if you started polling before 3:23 chances are your forecast is gonna come in light and I think that's one of the things that we've learned as we're kind of going into this to hear it is we really want to measure the impact starting right around that 3:23 timeframe it looks right around then based on that time series chart that we showed earlier that's when the market fully understood the impact of this epidemic and so as we start over the next two weeks even though we started pulling a little bit early we really want to focus on that second set a second half of responses because that's probably gonna be more indicative of what's going on I think the second thing is gonna be look if condition of conditions continue to deteriorate things can get worse and so we may come out of the next two weeks with this data that we collected and again have to continue indicating that you know the environment has continued coming down and you know maybe we may have to make adjustments as we see fit so I think that's kind of you know this whole situation is so dynamic still and so we're gonna do our best in the next week and a half to kind of get this data to market to at least give everyone an idea here's how everything stands right now and so that people have a good benchmark and then move forward yeah so this is as close to real time really as you can get in some of this IT spending world saga mentioned some of the numbers and in the global 2000 fortune fortune 100 1000 this this end now just the reminder is up over 1200 I believe right Sahra the total and that you've collected this this month that's correct exactly every time we've been doing one of these it's been going up another a couple hundred respondents so yeah we're at a very comfortable level now our sample right now represents five hundred and fifty five billion dollars in annual IP spend you know and global IT spend every year is a little over you know three trillion so this is a significant significant portion of a global IT spend and we feel comfortable at this point kind of going into that quiet period as you mentioned and really start to dig through the results that you know now that we've kind of you know covered the the 10,000 foot or the macro layer so to speak in terms of where budgets are going now it's really time to start drilling down and do the sectors and vendors because this is this is not going to be a every vendors going down or whatever maybe there's so many different dynamics here some vendors are going to do very well because the work for MoMA infrastructure and I think some vendors are gonna do very poorly because one they're not only on the legacy side but they're not really aligned from this whole work from home infrastructure movement so you're gonna see a lot of bifurcation you know as we get into 53 that's right and we're gonna dig into all those segments we're gonna look at the work from home we're gonna look at the traditional stuff we're gonna look at cloud we're gonna drill into specific segments that are that are of interest to our community it's a pleasure to really have you on here Sagar thank you for for sharing giving us access to this data and and stay safe and we will be watching go to ETR dot plus and you know check out what's happening there Silicon Engel Tom will obviously cover this and I published weekly on wiki bond comm again that saga thanks so much for coming on the cube yeah no problem thank you so much and looking forward to catching up in a few weeks all right then thank you for watching everybody this is Dave a latte for the cube or wiki bounce cube insights powered by ETR we'll see you next time [Music]

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, connecting with our leaders all around the world, this is theCUBE Conversation. >> Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're changing the format a little bit, we're going right to the new data from ETR. You might recall that last week, ETR received survey results from over 1000 CIOs and IT practitioners. And they made a call at that time, which said that actually surprisingly, a large number of respondents about 40% said they didn't expect a change in their 2020 IT spending. At the same time about 20% of the survey said they're going to spend more largely related to Work From Home infrastructure. ETR was really the first to report on this. And it wasn't just collaboration tool like zoom and video conferencing. It was infrastructure around that security, network bandwidth and other types of infrastructure to support Work From Home like desktop virtualization. ETR made the call at that time, that it looked like budgets, were going to be flat for 2020. Now, you also might recall consensus estimates for 2020 came into the year at about 4%, slightly ahead of GDP. Obviously, that's all is changed. Last week, ETR took the forecast down, and we're going to update you today. We're now gone slightly negative. And with me to talk about that again, is Sagar Kadakia, who's the Director of Research at ETR. Sagar, great to see you again, thank you for coming on. >> Thanks for having me again David, really appreciate it. >> Let's get right into it. I mean, if you look at the time series chart that we showed last week, you can see how sentiment changed over time. That blue line was basically people who responded to the survey starting at 3/11. Now you've updated that, that forecast, really tracking after the COVID-19 really kicked in. Can you explain what we're seeing here in this chart? >> Yeah, no problem. The last time we spoke, we were around an N or sample size of about 1000. And we were right around that zero percent growth rate. One of the unique things that we've done is we've left this survey open. And so what that allows us to do is really track the impact on annual IP growth, essentially daily. And so as things have progressed, as you look at that blue line, you can really see the growth rate has continued to trend downwards. And as of just a day or two ago, we're now below zero. And so I think because of what's occurring right now, the overall current climate continues to slightly deteriorate. You're seeing that in a lot of the CIOs responses. >> If you bring that slide back up Andrew, I want to just sort of stay on this for a second. What I really like about what you guys are doing is you're essentially bringing event analysis in this. So if you see that blue line, you see on 3/13, a national emergency was declared and that's really when the blue line started to decline. What ETR has done is kind of reset that, reset the data since 3/13. Because it's now a more accurate reflection of what's actually happening happening in the market. Notice in the upper right, it says the US approved... The Senate last night approved a stimulus package. Actually, they're calling it an Aid Package. It's really not a stimulus package. It's an aid package that they're injecting to help. A number of our workers actually sounds like existing workers and small businesses and even large businesses like Boeing. Boeing was up significantly yesterday powering the Dow and potentially airlines. As you can see ETR is going to continue to monitor the impact, and roll this out. Really ETR is the only company that I know of anyway, that can track this stuff on a daily basis. So Sagar, that event analysis is really key, and you're going to be watching the impact of this stimulus slash aid packet. >> Yeah, so here's what we're doing on that chart. If you look at that yellow line again, effectively what you're seeing is, if we remove the first I think six or seven 100 respondents that took the survey and start tracking how budgets are changing as a 3/13, that's when the US declared a national emergency. We can recalculate the growth rate. And we can see it's around... It's almost negative one and a half. And so the beauty of doing this, really polling daily, is it allows us to be just as dynamic, as a lot of these organizations are. I think one of the things we talked about the last time was some of these budget changes are going to be temporary. And organizations are figuring out what they're doing day by day. And a lot of that is dictated based on government actions. And so uniquely here, what we're able to do is kind of give people a range and also say, "based on these events, "this is how things are changing."" And so I think we think the first biggest event was on 3/13, where the US effectively declared a national emergency over COVID-19. And now what we're going to start tracking between today and over the weekend, and Monday is: Are people getting more positive? Is there no change? Or is there further deterioration because of this aid package that got passed this morning? >> Now I want to share with our audience. I've been down to ETR's headquarters in New York, it's staffed with a number of data scientists and statistical experts. The ends here are well over 1000. I think we're over 1100 now, is that correct? What is the end that we're at today? >> That's right. Yeah, we're we're pushing right over 1200. And we're going to expect a few more hundred respondents. The good thing is it's balanced, which is important. All these events that are occurring, we want to make sure that we have at least a few hundred more CIOs and IT executives answering. And so every week as we kind of continue to do some of these breaking analysis, there are going to be a few more hundred CIOs. And we'll really be able to zero in or hone in on what they're saying. The growth rate on the IT side, it's going to continue to fluctuate. It's going to continue to be dynamic over the next few weeks, but right now versus (murmurs). We are in negative territory now. >> I want to also explain I mean, the end is important. But in and of itself, it's not the be all end all, what's important about the end, the larger it is, the more cuts you can make. And I want to share... You guys have been doing this for the better part of a decade. And so you have firm level data. And you've got indicators and markers that you've tracked over the years. For example, one of the things that ETR tracks is Giant Public and Private GDP we call it. And that's for example, I'm not saying that, that Mars is one of the companies but Mars is a huge private company, UPS before they went public, huge private company. ETR tracks firm level data, they of course anonymize that, but they can see markers and trackers and trends, and probably have, I don't know dozens of those types of segments. So the bigger the end is, the more... The higher the end within those buckets, and the better the confidence interval. And you guys are experts at really digging into that in trying to understand and read the tea leaves. >> That's right. The key to this survey is, it's not anonymous, we know who is taking the survey. Now to your point, we do anonymize and aggregate it when we display those results. But one of the unique capabilities is we're able to see all of these trend lines. The entire drill down survey that we did on COVID-19 through the lenses of different verticals so we can take a look at industrials materials manufacturing, healthcare, pharma, airlines, delivery services, health, and all these other verticals and get a feel for which ones are deteriorating the most, which ones look stable. And, we talked about last week and it continues to remain true this week. And again, the ends have gone up on all these verticals on the supply chain side. Industrials, materials manufacturing, healthcare, pharma, they continue and they also anticipate to see these things in the next few months, broken supply chains and on the demand side, it's really retail consumer airlines delivery services. That's coming down quite substantial. And I think, based on what United and some of these other airlines have done these last few days in terms of cutting capacity, that's just a reflection of what we're seeing. >> Let's dig into the data a little bit more and bring up the next chart. Last week, we're about 40% actually, exactly 40% where that gray line that said: CIOs and IT practitioners said, "no change." They're like the budget of the green. The green was actually at about 20 21%. So it's slightly up now at 22%. And you can see, most of the the green is in that one to 10% range. And you can see in the left hand side, it's obviously changing. Now we're at 37% in the gray line, slightly up in the green, and a little bit more down and in the red. So take us through what's changed Sagar. >> Yeah, to reiterate what we were talking about last week, and then I'll kind of talk about some of the change is, I think the market and a lot of our clients, they were expecting the growth rate to be more negative. Last week when we talked about zero percent. The reason that, it wasn't more negative is because we saw all these organizations accelerating spend because they had to keep employees productive. They don't want to catastrophe in productivity. And so you saw this acceleration, as you mentioned earlier in the interview around Work From Home tools, like collaboration tools, increasing bandwidth on the VPN networking side, laptops, MDM, so forth and so on. That continues to hold true today. Again, if we use the same example that we talked about last week, (mumbles) organizations, they have 40 50 60,000 employees or more working from home. You have to be able to support these individuals and that's why we're actually seeing some organizations accelerate spend and the majority organizations even though they are declining spend, some of that is still being offset by having to spend more on what we're calling kind of this Work From Home infrastructure. But I will say this: you are seeing more organizations versus last week, which is why the growth rate has come down, moving more and more towards the negative buckets. Again, there is some offset there. But the offset we talked about last week, Work From Home infrastructure is not a one-for-one when it comes to taking down your IT budget, and that continues to hold true. >> Let's talk a little bit about some of the industries retail, airlines, industrials, pharma, healthcare, what are you seeing in terms of the industry impact, particularly when it relates to supply chains, but other industry data that went through? >> I think the biggest takeaway is that healthcare pharma, industry materials, manufacturing organizations, they've indicated the highest levels of broken supply chains today. And they think in three months from now, it's actually going to get worse. And so we spoke about this last time, I don't think this is going to be a V shaped recovery from the standpoint of things are going to get better in the next few weeks or the next month or two. CIOs are indicating that they expect conditions to worsen over the next three months on the supply chain side and even demand the ones that are getting hit the hardest on the retail consumer side airlines, delivery services, they are again indicating that they anticipate demand to be worse three months from now. The goal is to continue serving and pulling these individuals over the next few weeks and months and to see if we can get a better timeline as we get into two edge but for the next few months, conditions look like they're going to get worse. >> I want to highlight some of the industries and let's make some comments here. Retail... You guys called out retail airlines, delivery services, industrials, materials, manufacturing, pharma and healthcare, there's some of the highest impact. I'll just make a few comments here. I think retail really, this accelerates the whole digital transformation. We already saw this starting, I think you'll see further consolidation and some permanence in the way in which companies are pivoting to digital. Obviously, the big guys like Walmart and the like are competing very effectively with Amazon. But, there's going to be some more consolidation there. I would say potentially the same thing in airlines that really are closely watching what the government is going to do. But, do we need this this many airlines? Do we need all this capacity? Maybe yes, maybe no. So watching that. And of course, healthcare right now, as I said last week in the braking analysis, they're just too distracted right now to buy anything. And they're overwhelmed. Now, of course, pharma, they're manufacturing, so they've got disruptions in supply chain and obviously the business. But there could be an upside down the road as COVID-19 vaccines come to the market. >> On the upside, I think you kind of hit it, right on the nail. When you get these type of events that occur. Sometimes it speeds up digital transformation. one of the things that the team and I have been talking about internally is: this is not your father's Keep The Lights On strategy so to speak. Organizations are very focused on maintaining productivity versus significantly cutting costs. What does that mean? Maybe three to five years ago, if this had occurred, you would have seen a lot of infrastructure as a service platform, as a service... A lot of these cloud providers, you'd have seen those projects decline as organization spent more on on plan. And we're not seeing that. We're seeing continued elevated budgets on the Cloud side and Micron just reported this morning and again, cited strong demand on the Cloud and data center side. That just goes to show that organizations are trying to maintain productivity. They want to continue these IT roadmaps and they're going to cut budgets where they can, but it's not going to be on the Cloud side. >> You know what, that's a really important point. This is not post Y2K, not 2008, 2007, 2008, 2009 because we've, pretended but a 10 year bull market, companies are doing pretty well, balance sheets are generally strong. They somewhat in whether, it was used to stronger companies, whether they're so they're not focused right now anyway, on cut cut cut as it was in the last few downturns. Let's go into some of the vendor data and some of the sector data, Andrew if you'd bring up the next chart. What we're showing here is really comparing the the blue is the January survey to the current survey in the yellow, and you're seeing some of the sectors that are up taking. You've identified mobile device management, big data and Cloud, some of the productivity, you mentioned DocuSign, Adobe zoom, Citrix, even VMware with the desktop virtualization. We've talked about security, you've got marketing and LinkedIn, my LinkedIn inbound is going through the roof as people are probably signing up for a LinkedIn premium. Let's talk about this a little bit. What you're seeing... Help us interpret this data. >> Yeah, sure. One of the things that everybody wants to know is, okay, so Work From Home infrastructures getting more spend for the vendors that are benefiting the most. One of the unique things that we can do is because we're kind of collecting all the DNA, from a tech stack aside from these organizations, we can overlap, how they're spending on these vendors. And also with the data that they provide in terms of whether they are increasing or decelerating their IT budgets because of COVID-19. What you're looking at here, is we isolated to all of those organizations and customers that indicated that they're increasing their budgets because of COVID-19. Because of the Work From Home infrastructure. And what we're doing is we're then isolating to vendors that are getting the most upticks in spend. This actually really nicely aligns with a lot of the themes that we were talking about collaboration tools. You see that VMware, they're all right on the virtualization side, MDM with Microsoft. And you're seeing a lot of other vendors with Citrix and Zoom and Adobe. These are the ones that we think are going to benefit from this kind of Work From home infrastructure movement. And again, it's all very... It's not just the qualitative and the commentary. This is all analytics, we really went in and analyzed every single one of these organizations that were increasing their budgets and tried to pinpoint using different data analysis techniques, and to see which vendors were really getting the majority or the largest, pie of that span. >> We had Sanjay Poonen, who's the CEO of VMware on yesterday and he was very sensitive but not trying to hear as your ambulance chasing because obviously they do desktop virtualization and VDI big workload. At the same time. I think he was also being cautious because there's probably portions of their business that are going to get hit, Michael Dell similarly, I think he was quoted in CRN as saying, "hey, are we seeing momentum in our laptop "business in our mobile business?" But as you guys pointed out, the flip side of that is their on prem business is probably going to suffer somewhat. It's a kind of like the Work From Home is a partial offset, but it's not a total offset. You're seeing that with a lot of these companies. Obviously, Microsoft, AWS, a lot of the cloud companies are very well positioned, how about some of the guys that are going to get impacted? Obviously, as I said that the on-prem folks, you guys talked about earlier it's not your father's Keep Your Lights On strategy. Okay but this... You asked the question, is this a reprieve for the legacy guys? Not quite, was your conclusion. What did you mean by that? >> I think a lot of times when you have these sub-events, the clients a lot of the market think okay, "some of the legacy vendors are going to do well "because, we're in malicious times, "and we don't want to keep on this kind "of next generation strategy." We're not seeing that and to the point that you highlighted earlier. There are... Even though these companies like Dell, like Cisco, where they're seeing some products accelerate, there are products to your point that are not doing as well The desktops, right? As an example for Dell or the storage. On the negative side or the legacy side where we're just not seeing any traction, the IBM's the Oracle on-prem, Symantec, which got acquired by Broadcom, checkpoint MicroStrategy. And there's another half dozen other vendors that we're seeing where they are not capitalizing. There is no reprieve for these legacy names. And we don't anticipate them getting additional spend, because of this Work From Home infrastructure kind of movement. >> Let's unpack that a little bit. It's interesting Symantec and checkpoint in security, security you think would get an uplift there, but what you're seeing here is... Let me just tell the audience who you called out. Symantec Teradata MicroStrategy, NET app Checkpoint Oracle and IBM, and I know there are others. But I would say this: These are companies that are getting impacted in a big way by the Cloud. Particularly like Symantec and checkpoint. That's a Cloud security companies are actually probably still doing pretty well. You take Teradata, their data is getting impact by the Cloud from folks like Snowflake and Redshift, MicroStrategy a lot of modern BI coming out. NetApp here's a company that's embraced the Cloud, but the vast majority of the business changess to be on-prem. I think IBM and Oracle are interesting. They're somewhat different. Actually a lot different IBM has services exposure, and you guys call that out, particularly around outsourcing. At the same time, it's going to be interesting to see IBM is going to get a lot of resources. Going to be interesting to see if they start coming out with corona virus related services. So watching for that, and then Oracle, their whole story is, "okay, we got Gen 2 Cloud and Mission Critical in the Cloud, but they're on-prem businesses, I think clearly going to be affected here is kind of what you guys pointed out, and I would agree with your thoughts. >> I think what we're seeing is organizations they had a Cloud roadmap, and that roadmap is continuing. The one thing that is changing in some of that roadmap is we need to be able to support employees as they work from home as we achieve this roadmap. And so that's why we're not seeing a reprieve on the legacy side. But we are seeing upticks and spin where we just wouldn't anticipate them right on maybe on Citrix, on Dell laptops, Adobe and a few other areas. Now, in terms of security side, some of the next gen security vendors like CrowdStrike APi, which is an MFA, those vendors are doing well. It makes sense, where you have more people working from home, you have more devices that are connecting to data applications. Just a component itself. And so you would expect spend to continue going up as you need more authentication, more Endpoint Protection. Cisco Meraki they do Cloud Networking. That piece is looking very good, even though Hardware networking is not looking very good at all. The Cloud Networking is looking good, which again makes sense, as you're increasing bandwidth on that side. >> Definitely stories of two sides of that coin. >> That's right >> I want to... Andrew, if you want to... If you wouldn't mind bringing up the next job, we're going to go back to the first one that we showed you with the time series. This is a very important point. Again, we can't stress it enough. We want to understand the impact of the stimulus or aid package. And ETR is going to continue to track that. What can we expect from you guys over the next week or so? >> The goal is to determine whether or not the stimulus is having an impact on how people are responding to our survey as a relates to how they're changing their budgets. The next four or five days, if we start seeing an uptick in this yellow and blue lines here, I think that's a positive. I think that shows that people are kind of wrapping their heads around, great government is taking action here. There is a roadmap in place to help us get out of this. But if the line continues coming down, it just may be that the last few weeks or the last month or so, there was just so much damage. There's not really... There's no coming back from this at least in the near term. So we are kind of watching out for that. >> Well, the Fed is definitely active. >> They're doing right what they can, they're pushing liquidity into the marketplace. People think out of bullets. I don't agree with the Fed. Fed has a quite a bit of of headroom and some dry powder, (murmurs) which is awesome. But the Fed itself, can't do it. You needed to have this fiscal stimulus. So we're excited to see that come to market. I think what I would say to our audiences, my concern is uncertainty. The markets don't like uncertainty and right now there's a lot of uncertainty. If you saw the piece on medium of The Hammer And The Dance it lays out some scenarios about what could happen to the healthcare system. You see people who say, "hey, we should shut down for 10 weeks." The president saying, "hey, we want "to get back to work by by April." The big concern that I have is: okay, maybe we can stamp it out in the near term and get back to work by late April, early May. But then what happens? Are people going to start traveling again? Are people going to start holding events again? And I think there's going to be some real question marks around that. That uncertainty I think, is something that we obviously have to watch. I think there is light at the end of the tunnel, when you look at China and some of the other things that are happening around the world, but we still don't know how long that tunnel is. I'll give you final thoughts before we wrap. >> I think and that's the biggest thing here is the uncertainty, which is why we're doing a lot of this event analysis. We're trying to figure out: after each one of these big events, is there more certainty in people's responses? And just we were talking about, sectors and verticals and vendors that are not doing well. Because the uncertainty we're seeing a lot of down ticks and spend amongst outsource IT and IT consulting vendors. And as long as the uncertainty continues, you're going to see more and more IT projects frozen, less and less spend on those outsource IT and IT consulting vendors and others. And until there's something really in place here where people feel comfortable, you're going to probably see budgets remain where they are, which right now they're negative. >> Folks as we said last week, Sagar and I, ETR is committed, theCUBE is committed to keep you updated on a regular basis. Right now on a weekly cadence. As we have new information, we will bring it to you. Sagar, thanks so much for coming on and supporting us. >> You're welcome and thanks for having me again. >> You're welcome. Thank you for watching this CUBE Insights powered by ETR. And remember all these breaking analysis available on podcast, go to etr.plus that's where all the action is in terms of the survey work. siliconangle.comm covers these breaking analysis and I published weekly on wikibond.com. Thanks for watching everybody. Stay safe. And we'll see you next time.

>>from the Silicon Angle Media office in Boston, Massachusetts. It's the Cube now here's your host, Dave Vellante. >>Hello, everyone. And welcome to this breaking analysis. We're here to assess the VM Ware v Sphere seven announcement, which is the general availability of so called Project Pacific. VM Ware has called this the biggest change to V sphere in the last 10 years. Now Project Specific Pacific supports kubernetes and natively in VM Ware environments. Why is this important? This is critical for multi and hybrid cloud because Kubernetes and its surrounding orchestration enable application portability and management. Yeah, as we've been reporting, VM Ware is one of the big players eyeing multi cloud, along with a crowded field of aspirants that include IBM with Red hat, Microsoft, Cisco, Google and a host of specialists in the ecosystem. Like how she and rancher as well play. Some players have focused in their respective stack swim lanes like security and data protection, storage, networking, etcetera. And with me to dig into this announcement is stew. Minutemen's Do is a senior analyst at Wiki Bond and co host of The Cube is too good to see you and let's get into it great to talk about this state. Okay, so the Sphere seven, what is being announced? And why is it relevant? >>Yes. So, David, as you said in the open, this is the general availability of what they talked about at VM World 2019 as Project Pacific. So it really is integrating kubernetes into V sphere. The VM ware, of course, will position this is that they're now enabling, you know, the 90% of the data centers around the world that have VM ware. Hey, your kubernetes enabled. Congratulations. You're cloud native. Everything like that. Only being a little facetious here. But this is very important. How do we get from where we were to live in this more cloud? Native environments. So containers in general and kubernetes specifically are being a first class citizen. There's a lot of work, Dave, and my understanding this has been going on for a number of years. You know, it's not like they just started working at this six months ago. A overhaul to how this works. Because it's not just we're going to stick a couple of containers on top of, you know, the guest operating system in the virtual machine. But there is a supervisor cluster for kubernetes at the hyper visor level. And there's a lot of, you know, in the weeds things that we're all trying to understand and figure out because you've got you know, we've got a hyper visor and you've got VM. And now you've got the containers and kubernetes on. Some of them are living in my data center. Some VM ware, of course, lives on multiple clouds like the VM ware on AWS. Solutions of this will go there on and, you know, how do I manage that? How does this impact my operations? You know, how did this change my application portfolio? Because, you know, the early value proposition for VM Ware always was. Hey, you're gonna put VM ware on there. You don't need to touch your applications. Everything runs like it did before you were running windows APS on a physical server. You move into virtual. It's all great. There's a lot of nuance and complexity. So when VM Ware says this is the biggest change in a decade probably is, I think back to you know, I remember when the fx 2.0, rolled out in V motion really changed the landscape. That was big V balls. Move to really ah storage. To really understand that architecture and really fix storage was was a huge undertaking that took many years. This this definitely stacks up with some of those previous changes to really change the way that we think about VM Ware. I think the advertising you have even seen from being where some places is don't think of them as VM ware their cloud where our container ware with like because vm zehr still there. But VM Ware is much more than VMS today, >>so this feels like it's bm were trying to maintain its relevance in a cloud native world and really solidify its because, let's face it, VM Ware is a platform that Pat Gelsinger's has ride. The Waves tried many times in many angles to try to ride the cloud wave, and it's finally settled on the partnerships with AWS specifically. But others on DSO really Is this their attempt to become cloud native, not get left behind and be cloud naive? His many say >>Yeah, great question, David. Absolutely. There's the question as to you know what's happening with my applications, you know lots of customers. They say, Well, I'm just going to satisfy the environments. Watched the huge growth of companies like service now workday. Those applications, well, customers don't even know what they live on. Do they live on virtualization? Environment is a containers I don't need to worry about because SAS takes care of that. If I'm building modern applications, well, I'm probably not starting with VMS. Containers are the way that most people are doing that. Or they might even be going serverless now if we take these environments. So how does VM ware make sure that they have the broadest application support? Kubernetes really won the container orchestration wars on. And this is a way that VM ware now can enable customers to move down that path to modernize their environments on. And what they wanna have is really some consistency between what's happening in the cloud and happening in the environments that they control >>themselves. Vm ware saying that containers in our first class citizen within v sphere what does that mean? Why is that important? First of all, are they really And what does that mean? And why is that important? >>Yes. So, Dave, my understanding is, you know, absolutely. It's their, You know, the nuances that you will put there is. You know, we're not just running bare metal servers with Lennox and running containers on top of it. It is. You're still sitting on top of the hyper visors. One of the things I'm trying to understand when you dig down is you know what? The device driver level VM ware always looked a little bit like Linux. But the people that use it and operate it, they're not letting people Dave, these, you know, the OS. The number one os that always ran on VM ware was Windows and the traditional applications that ran there. So when we talk about containers and we're enabling that in a kubernetes environment, there are some questions about how do we make sure that my applications get certified? Dave, you got a lot of history knowing things like s ap and Oracle. I need to make sure that we've tested everything in this works. This is not what we were running traditionally in VM ware and VM ware. Just thanks. Hey, v Sphere seven, turn the crank. Everything certified Well, I would tell customers make sure you understand that your application has been tested, that your Eyes V has certified this environment because this is definitely, as VM Ware says, a huge architectural change. So therefore, there's some ripple effects to make sure that what I'm doing in this environment stays fully supported. Of course, I'm sure VM Ware is working with their huge ecosystem to make sure that all the pieces or environment you mentioned things like data protection. We absolutely know that VM Ware is making sure the day one the data protection plugs in and supported in these environments when you're using the kind of kubernetes persona or containers solutions in V sphere. >>Well, this brings me to my next question. I mean, we were talking to Bernard Golden the other day and he was saying, You know, Kubernetes is necessary for multi cloud, but it's insufficient. And so this seems to me to be a first step and, as I say, VM ware maintaining and growing its relevance. But there's gonna be a roadmap here that goes beyond just containers and portability. There's other management factors you mentioned security of enabling the ecosystem to plug in. So maybe talk about that a little bit in terms of what's necessary to really build this out over the next >>decade. And actually, it's a great point. So, first of all, you know, V. Sphere, of course, is the core of VM Ware's business. But there's only a piece of the overall portfolio said this lives in. I believe they would consider this part of what they call their Tansu family. Tando is their cloud native overarching piece of it, and one of the updates is their product hands admission control. Which of the existing product really came out of the Hep D Oh acquisition is how we can really manage any kubernetes anywhere, and this is pure software. Dave. I'm sure you saw the most recent earnings announcement from VM Ware, and you know what's going sass. What's going subscription? VM Ware is trying to build out some of their software portfolio that that isn't kind of the more traditional shrink wrap software, so Tan Xue can manage any kubernetes environment. So, of course, day one Hey, obviously or seven, it's a kubernetes distribution. Absolutely. It's going to manage this environment and but also if I've got Cooper days from azure kubernetes from Amazon communities from other environment. Tanja can manage across all of those environments. So when when you're what VM Ware has always done. If you think back in the early days of virtualization, I had a lot of different servers. How do I manage across those environments? Well, VM ware was a layer that lived across them. VM Ware is trying to do the same thing in the cloud. Talk about multi cloud. And how do I manage that? How do we get value across them? Well, there's certain pieces that you know VM Ware is looking to enable with their management software to go across them. But there are a lot of other companies, you know, Amazon Google actually not Amazon yet for multi cloud. But Microsoft and Google absolutely spent a lot of time talking about that in the last year. A swell as you mentioned. Companies like Rancher and Hashi Corp absolutely play across What Lots of these multi cloud. Well, >>let's talk about the competition. Who do you see is the number one competitors >>Well, so the number one competitor absolutely has to be red hat, Dave. So you know, when I've been in the kubernetes ecosystem for a number of years for many years. When I talk to practitioners, the number one, you know what kubernetes you're using? Well, the answer for many years was, Well, I'm grabbing it, you know, the open source and I'm building my own stack. And the reason customers did that was because there wasn't necessarily maturity, and this was kind of leading edge, bleeding edge customers in this space. The number two besides build my own was Red Hat was because I'm a red hat customer, a lot of Lennox tooling the way of building things the way my application developers do. Things fit in that environment. And therefore, that's why Red Hat has over 2000 open shift customers leading distribution for Kubernetes. And you know, this seems purely directly targeted at that market. That red hat did you know it was a big reason why IBM spent $34 billion on the Red Hat acquisition is to go after this multi cloud opportunity. So you know, absolutely this shot across the bow because Red Hat is a partner of VM Ware's, but absolutely is also a competitive >>Well, Maritz told me years ago that's true. We're with everybody and you could see that playing out. What if you look at what VM Ware could do and some of their options if they gave it away, that would really be a shot across the bow at open shift, wouldn't it? >>Yeah, absolutely, Dave, because kubernetes is not free if you're enabling kubernetes on my Google environment, I, you know, just within the last week's awesome things that were like, Okay, wait. If you're testing an environment, yes, it is free. But, you know, started talking about the hourly charges for the management layer of kubernetes. So you know kubernetes again. A color friend, Cory Quinn. Communities absolutely is not free, and he will give you an earful and his thoughts on it s o in Amazon or Google. And absolutely, Dave, it's an important revenue stream for red hat. So if I'm vm ware and you know, maybe for some period of time, you make it a line item, it's part of my l. A. You know, a good thing for customers to look out for is when you're renegotiating your l a toe, understand? If you're going to use this, what is the impact? Because absolutely, you know, from a financial standpoint, you know, Pat Gelsinger on the VM Ware team has been doing a lot of acquisitions. Many of those Dave have been targeted at this space. You know, not to step Geo, but a bit NAMI. And even the pivotal acquisition all fit in this environment. So they've spent billions of dollars. It shouldn't be a net zero revenue to the top line of what VM Ware is doing in the space. >>So that would be an issue from Wall Street's perspective. But at the same time, it's again, they're playing the long game here. Do we have any pricing data at this point? >>So I still have not gotten clear data as to how they're doing pricing now. >>Okay, Um, and others that are in there and in the mix. We talked about Red Hat. Certainly Microsoft is in there with Arc. I've mentioned many times Cisco coming at this from a networking perspective. But who else do you see and then Antos with Google? >>Yeah. And you know, Dave, all the companies we're talking about here, you know, Pat Gelsinger has had to leverage his intel experience to how to balance that line between a partner with everybody but slowly competing against everybody. So, you know, we've spent many hours talking about the VM Ware Amazon relationship. Amazon does not admit the multi cloud a solution yet and does not have a management tool for supporting all of the kubernetes environment. But absolutely Microsoft and Google do. Cisco has strong partnerships with all the cloud environment and is doing that hybrid solution and Dave Justice nothingto expand on a little bit there. If you talk about V sphere, you say, Okay, Visa or seven trolling out Well, how long will it take most of the customer base to roll to this environment? There will be some that absolutely want to take advantage of kubernetes and will go there. But we know that is typically a multi year process to get most of the install base over onto this. And if you extend that out to where VM Ware is putting their solution into cloud environments, there's that tension between, you know, Is there a match actually, between what I have in my data center and what is in the managed environment managed by VM Ware and Amazon, or manage for to support some of the other cloud environment. So the positioning always is that you're going to do VM Ware everywhere, and therefore it's going to be consistent everywhere. Well, the devil's in the details because I have control on what's in my data center, and I might have a little bit less control to some of those managed services that I'm consuming. So absolutely something to keep a close eye on. And not just for VM, where everybody is having these concerns. Even if you talk about the native kubernetes distributions, most of the kubernetes services from the cloud providers are not, you know, immediately on the latest revision of kubernetes, >>right, So Okay, well, let's let's talk about that. Remember when open Stack first came out? It was a Hail Mary against Amazon. Yeah, well, the new Hail Mary and looks like it has more teeth is kubernetes right, because it allows portability and and and of course, you know Amazon doesn't publicly say this, but it's not. That's not good for Amazon. If you're reporting things, applications, moving things around, moving them out of the Amazon cloud, and that makes it easier. Of course, Amazon does support kubernetes right, But you've got >>alternatives. So, David, it's fascinating. So I've talked to many practitioners that have deployed kubernetes and one of the top reasons that they say that why they're using Kubernetes is so they have options with the cloud. When you also ask them what cloud they're running, they're running Amazon. Did they have planned to move off of it? Well, probably not. I had a great customer that I didn't interview with that one of the Cube con shows, and they actually started out with Azure just because it was a little further head with kubernetes and then for the services they wanted. They ended up moving to AWS and Dave. It's not a click a button and you move from one kubernetes to another. You need toe match up and say, Okay, here's the five or six services I'm using. What are the equivalent? What changes do I need to make? Multi cloud is not simple. Today, I mentioned Hashi Corp is one of those companies that help people across these environments. If you have haji solution and you're managing across multiple clouds, you look in the code and you understand that there's a lot of difference between those different clouds, and they simplify that. But don't eliminate it. Just it is not. There is not a way today. This is not a utility when you talk about the public cloud. So you know Kubernetes absolutely is existentially a little bit of a threat to Amazon but Amazon still going strong in that space. And you know that the majority of customers that have deployed kubernetes in the public cloud are doing it on Amazon just because of their position in the marketplace and what they're. >>So let's double click on that. So Jassy, an exclusive interview with John Furrier before last year's re invent, said, Look, we understand there's a lot of reasons why people might choose multiple clouds, you know, go through them in a developer preference. And I think I think, you know, people want o optionality and reduce lock in potentially. But I've always said, by the way, just as an aside, that that the risk of lock in it is far down on the list relative to business value, people will choose business value over over, you know, no lock in every time. About 15% of the customers you might not agree. Nonetheless, Jassy claimed that typically when you get into a multiple cloud environment, he didn't use the term multi cloud that it's it's not a 50 50. It's a premier primary cloud supplier. So might be 70 30 or 80 20 or even 90 10. But it's really that kind of, you know, imbalance. First of all, do you see that? And then what does that mean for how they approach of this space? Multi cloud and in particular. >>So I'm sorry. You're asking how Amazon should approach the space. And you've said that I don't think they'll >>eventually enter this market place. >>Yeah, you know, absolutely, Dave. You know, first of all, in general, yes, I do agree. It is not. There are certain financial companies that, you know, have always chosen two of everything. Because for regulation and you know certain we need to protect ourselves. We're gonna have to suppliers. We're going to keep them as even as possible. But that is a corner case. Most customers I have a primary cloud. That's what I'm doing. That what I t tries to get everybody on and you need to have Is there a reason why you want to use a secondary or tertiary cloud because there's a service that they need. Of course, Google. You often run it. It's like, Oh, well, there's certain data services that they're doing well And, of course, the business productivity solutions that Microsoft's doing where the relationship with Oracle that are driving people towards Microsoft. But just as we saw Amazon soften on their hybrid solutions, we spent a lot of time at re invent talking about all the various hybrid solutions. Um, since their customers are going to have multiple clouds on and even you take most of their customers that have M and a involved you buy another company, they might be using another cloud. As Microsoft's position in the marketplace has grown, you would expect that Amazon would have not just migration services but management services to match what customers need, especially in this kubernetes environment, seems that it seems a natural fit for them. It's possible they might just leverage, you know, partnerships with red hat VM ware, you know, in some of the other players for the time being. But if the market gets big enough and customers are asking for it, that's usually when Amazon response >>So let's let's wrap with what this means to the customer. And I've said that last decade really multi cloud was a symptom of multi vendor and not so much of the strategy that's changing. You know, clearly, jokes CIOs are being called in to clean up the crime scene on do you know, put in edicts corporate edicts around security and governance and compliance and so forth. So it started to become a complicated situation for a lot of companies. We've said that multi cloud is gonna it's gonna be they're going. People are going to put the right war load and the right cloud, etcetera, and this advantages to certain clouds. But what should customers be thinking specifically as it relates to v. Sphere seven? >>Yes. So, Dave, the biggest thing I would say that people need to look at it is that understanding in your organization that that boundary and line between infrastructure and application people have often looked at you looked at the ascendancy of VM Ware, Andi V. M's and then what's happening with cloud and containers. And we think of it from an infrastructure standpoint that I'm just changing the underlying pieces. This is where it lives and where I put things. But the really important thing is it's about my data and my applications, Dave. So if I'm moving an application to a new environment, how do I take advantage of it? You know, we don't just move it to a new environment and run it the same way we were doing it. I need to take advantage of those new environments. Kubernetes is involved in infrastructure, but the real piece is how I have my application, my developers, my app. Dev's working on this environment and therefore it might be that if VM Ware's the right environment, I'm doing a lot of it that the development team says, Hey, I need you to give me a pool and provisioned this for me and I can have my sandbox where I can move really fast. But VM Ware helped initially customers when they went from physical to virtual, move faster. From an infrastructure standpoint, what it needs to do to really enable this environment is help me move faster on the application side. And that's a big gap from VM. Ware's history is where the pivotal people and hefty O people and bit NAMI and all the new people are helping along to help that whole cloud native team. But that is a big shift from customers. So for this to be successful, it's not just, oh, the virtualization admin. He upgraded to the new thing. He made some changes and said, Okay, hey, I can give you a kubernetes cluster when you need it. It's really understanding what's going to happen on the application side in a lot of that is going to be very similar to what you're doing in cloud environments. And I think this is Dave often where your customers, they say, Oh, well, I did that cloud and it was too expensive and it was too hard, and I repatriated. Everything else is, well, you probably didn't plan properly and you didn't understand what you're getting yourself into. And you jumped into the deep end of the pool and oh, wait, I forgot how to learn how to swim. So you know, that is where we are. You know, Dave, you know the technology parts. Always the easiest piece. It's getting all of the organizational and political things sorted out. And you know the developer we know how important that is, we're seeing. It's great to see VM Ware pushing faster in this environment. Kudos to them for how fast they moved. Project Pacific to G. A. That is really impressive to see and can't wait to hear the customers roll out because if this is successful, we should be hearing great transformation stories from customers as to how this is enabling their business, enabling them to move faster on. You know, that has been what, one of the favorite stories that I've been telling with customers on the Cube last couple of years. >>The vast majority of VM Ware's business, of course, is on print, and essentially they're doing here is enabling developers in their customer base and the half a 1,000,000 customers to really develop in a cloud native manner. The question is, you know, from a ah, from a cultural standpoint, is that actually gonna happen? Or the developers gonna reject the organ and say, No, I want to develop in AWS or Microsoft in the cloud. I think VM Ware would say, We're trying to embrace no matter where they want to develop, but they're still going to be. That's interesting organizational tension or developer attention in terms of what their primary choices is. They're not. >>Yeah, Dave, Absolutely. We've been saying for years. That cloud is not a location. It is an operating model. So this is helping to enable that operating model more in the data center. There's still questions and concerns, of course around, you know, consumption on demand versus you know, whether whether you've bought the entire thing as more and more services become available in the public cloud, are those actually enabled to be able to be used, you know, in my data center hosted environment. So you know, this story is not completed, but we're definitely ready. I believe we're saying it's the multi clouds Chapter three of what? We've been watching >>you and you're seeing a major tam expansion yet again from VM Ware that started with the NSX. And then, of course, went in tow networking and storage. And now they've got a cloud security division. We're talking about the the cloud native capabilities here and and on and on, it goes to thanks for helping us break this VC seven announcement down and good job fixed. All right. And thank you for watching everybody. This is Dave Volante for stew Minimum. We'll see you next time on the Cube. >>Yeah,

>>live from Barcelona, Spain. It's the Cube covering Cisco Live 2020 right to you by Cisco and its ecosystem partners. >>Live on Welcome to the Cube. 2020 is the first Cube segment and session for 2020 next 10 years. This is the 10th year the Cube has been in operation. We're here in Barcelona for Cisco Live, but we're going to spend the next few minutes talking about the Enterprise Tech trends for 2020 and beyond. Really looking back at the past 10 years and then forward 10 years, I'm John Furrier, host of The Cube with Dave Vellante, Stew Minimum and The Cube team. The analysts want to analyze Enterprise tech. You know we love to do that day, but I think more notable is this is our first interview in 2020 for the year. We're kicking off our 10th year as we close down the Cube for 10 year anniversary in May. Quite an evolution. A lot of things we got right with Wiki bond research and the Cuban sites. Ah, lot of things we saw early, and that's the benefit of the Cube. And now, more than ever, it's more complex. It's a lot of noise. A lot of people talking about value propositions here. They're a lot of cloud. I think the reality is set in Cloud is here. It's not a question of why and when it's now. And the impact is just hitting mainstream Tech and Enterprises now leading the category in investments, venture capital, private equity M and A over consumer companies seeing much more focused emphasis on what's going on in the enterprise, which is business. Incredible opportunity ahead. 2020. What's in store? >>Well, you know, the last decade we obviously saw the consumer ization of i t. There was all that social media hype, and I think you're right, John. The enterprises now where the action is. But the last 10 years have been all about Cloud. What got us here to 2020 is not what's going to power through the next 10 years. I think it's not only Cloud, it's cloud plus data, which we definitely bet on it, right. But now the injection of machine intelligence on that data, which, of course, is running in the cloud for scale. So the real big question now is what's gonna happen in the cloud guys Amazon and Azure and clearly have momentum. Google actually beginning to pick it up a little bit, but particularly the case of Amazon who dominated the last decade. Yeah, it's gonna be not as easy for them going forward, You know, everybody now realizes. Wow, they got it right. You said many times they were misunderstood. Well, I think now people are beginning to realize how powerful they are. And the enterprise players have really begun to respond. And they don't like to give up their position to be really interesting to see how that goes. And, of course, you know we're going to talk more about Cisco, but still what? Your thoughts? >>Yeah. So, John, I think some of the things that we looked at as bleeding edge over the last 10 years are becoming a bit more mainstream. The role of the developer. We know the developers, the new king maker. You look where we are in the DEV Net zone. Definite zone. A couple years ago was small and there was people were kind of exciting everything. You look at it today, it looks much more like the regular show. It has really become mainstream. Dave said Cloud Cloud is mainstream developers mainstream that connection between the business enterprise, tech talk about and these other pieces really coming together. That's where the data really is the next fly wheel for what's happening and obviously machine learning the application developer. And still, it's about moving faster that companies are looking to do, and that is what all of the last 10 years has been building for. And now it's the new normal >>great, and I want to get into some of the ways I think when you look at this, because we can always rattle into any kind of technology. But you know, one things that we love to do is look at the ways what waves are going to come where you get your thoughts on that. But I think just let's reflect on what's going on around us right now. The Cube is the 10th year finishing up its 10th year. We're in the media business had a comment from someone here, a distinguished engineer at Cisco said. I can't believe you guys are a technology company. I had tweeted out yesterday on Barcelona about our Cube alumni list. It's turning into an expert network If you look at what's going on with Facebook and with Trump and the impeachment, you're seeing a changing of the guard in the media business. So we as media with Cube, it's looking angle has become interesting, and I think I bring this up because that's kind of out our new model that we've been doing for 10 years. But if you look at how people share information, misinformation, quality information, you're starting to see a paradigm where you don't know what the trust vendor A says they could do this vendor b so they could do that. Amazon says. This Azure says that. So I think the practitioners and consumers of I t in Enterprise Tech, the buyer's Where's the truth day? I mean, the models are completely changing. I've heard comments in the analyst firms are struggling to get modern press outlets are being dwindled down to a handful in the enterprise that new networks are being formed. The expert APS are out there. So this is a tell sign, Yeah, that the world more complex and different than ever before. >>The authentic community doesn't lie right, And your peers at the other day when you have private conversations. That's where the truth comes out. To the extent that you can like to bring that to the Cuban sessions like this, that's really where you say, extract the signal from the noise. We try to do that. We try to do it for 10 years, and I think that's part of the reason why we've been so successful. But at the same time, Look way no were funded by sponsors, which is great. We really appreciate their support, but at the end of the day, we've always gotta put forth what we think is actually happening out there. >>Let's get into some of the ways because it sets the context. So as you have these networks forming, you have cloud technology. You know, Os, I model looks, but I look back at the nineties, and I think this is a proposed to the Cisco show at that time. Dave, During the mini computer wave that set the stage for what became the PC revolution and then ultimately inter networking category, you had proprietary network operating systems, IBM s and a digital equipment corporation deck net, etcetera, etcetera and incomes. The open systems interconnect seven layer stack that changed the industry. In today's world, we have open source, but people are chirping about open core. There seems to be a trend towards proprietary now. Amazon is the big proprietary cloud. >>I don't >>mean proprietary in the sense of you can work with it, but scale is the new proprietary. So you almost have this revert back to old tactics of differentiation, and I think that's not good for customers. I think you look at the customer situation, it creates more complexity. And so I think that's why we're seeing multi Cloud really be a trend, because whoever can connect all the clouds and do that seamlessly is going to win big. And I think that's a TCP I peed like Dynamic >>John. It's a really interesting point because open source in general is more important than ever before. Enterprise companies are contributing. The big vendor community is spending more time on open source than they are on standards anymore. Over. If you look at the big projects out there limits kubernetes like more than half of the contributors have full time jobs. They work for big companies, but as you said, how am I consuming that get hub is a company at the core of open source. But get the platform itself is a proprietary, that open core model that you talked about. And of course, Microsoft built them for a big number. And some people have a little bit concerned >>when might get Lab is there >>and get lab right. Of course, similar they deliver their application itself. Is that open core model so open source is there. Open core is the model that they're doing. Absolutely. It is interesting because, as you said, open source is more pervasive than ever. But I'm consuming it more as >>a service >>from Amazon or from these >>providers face to the bitching and moaning that's going on the open source because there is kind of a lot of chirping going on around. Well, you know, if I build this in the open, is it truly open being co opted by? So the big clouds and you got Microsoft Microsoft Open Office 3 65 That's not gonna go away for the next 10 years. They've SAS ified, their core offering almost like a lock in. I mean, so so it seems to be just >>it smells >>like that old nasty >>habit. Everything we're entering this decade with four trillion years of Amazon hit Trillionaire Club in 2018. Drop town lost Akamas, Russ Hanneman would say, But but Apple, Google, Microsoft and an Amazon they looking vulnerable, don't in the trillions club. But I mean, I would point out, You're saying John, there will be a backlash. Open source Open, open distributed computing tier networks. I don't think I mean history would suggest that these big whales, they're not invulnerable. They can be taken down and open. Source is is one way out? >>Well, it's interesting. One of the things you look at one of the big threat for Cisco for a long time was like, Oh, STN is going to take over what Cisco's doing Well, Cisco still doing just fine with software defined networking and what that having the open compute model for networking is also a threat. If I look at Microsoft, Azure is leveraging their model that the big hyper scaler aren't necessarily coming to Cisco for gear. They're shifting as to where Cisco will be involved. When we talk about cloud models, they're spending much more time up the stack. John in the layer four through seven, they are down in their traditional Vera to three. >>The pressure on these monopolies, historically to continue to perform as public companies, has been enormous, and they get more proprietary to your point, John. And eventually the open markets has hold on. You know that opens up new opportunities. It takes a while, but it's always happened. >>I don't think I think your point about the big incumbent. Players are not going to yield to just being rolled over by the incumbent growing cloud companies. But you cannot deny the fact that, say, Amazon. Dave, I want to get your thoughts on this because what Amazon did to compute change the game in my mind, they completely changed the capabilities. The consumption models, the cost structures. All the economics were changed with compute looking outpost wavelengths. When things are getting in, they have their own networking. So the question is, if you have the cloud ification of the Holy Trinity of infrastructure, which is storage, compute networking. Okay, you can see almost the cloud guys almost changing radically. All three of them computes Already done. Stories is already done. Networking is left, so you have networking battleground because you got to move the packets around. You don't need Mpls route routes because you just go through the cloud. How things are stored data, backup recovery. The list goes on and on. Ultimately, that's the infrastructure as code ethos that's going to change the application environment. So it will. Amazon will Google Will azure commoditized or change networking? >>Yeah. I mean, John, we already see that happening when we came two years ago. One of the challenges for most network engineers is what I need to manage. A large part of it I can't actually touch. I have to rely on third party. It's outside. I don't control it. But if something goes wrong, I'm on the hook for it. And if you go look forward a little bit, you know, if I'm deploying serverless architectures, is their networking involved? Yes. So I know what it is. I know my platform underneath it is going to take care of it, you know, sitting here talking about that transformation of the workforce, Dave, you wrote about it in your piece. That future of work is if you're you know, really, you know, putting together, You know, I'm a CCP my job is being a Cisco certified engineer, and my role will be racking, stacking, configuring and changing and managing those boxes today, it's well, I better get involved in the security side or the application side, because that's where I'm actually connected to the business and the data of things. Because if I'm just concerned about the moving packets around, yeah, there's gonna be either automation or clarification or combination of those things. They take that away from a >>couple thoughts on this. John, you were the very first to report trillion dollar opportunity for Andy Jassy and Amazon, and there was a 35 billion, so they have a long way to go. So I think a big theme for Amazon is gonna be tam. Expansion in one of those areas is, of course, networking, and you've seen the cloud slowly eat away reported this in my Wiki Bond post from the data because slowly eating away over the last 10 years. It's the networking share, and one practitioner said, as we put our data into the cloud, we're going to spend less on traditional networking, so it's clearly a threat. So Cisco, obviously diversifying its portfolio, we're gonna talk about that this week. But but more focused, as we've said do under the leadership of Chuck Robbins than it was. >>Well, Dave, here's a question for you because if you look at enterprise spend, they're increasing their spend on public cloud. But their data center stuff. It has stayed relatively solid. We haven't yet seen the erosion there. So are you saying networking is going to road before the rest of it? Because you know the story of data gravity? What? >>I think you're seeing the networking road not necessarily in terms of shrinking Cisco, although there guiding to a flat to down quarter. But you've certainly seen their growth slowdown, and especially in their core networking space. I mean, they've tried to double down on their switching and routing, and they just made new announcements in that space that John, you know well, but unquestionably the cloud is that it had an impact on Cisco's business. >>Well, 20 point, let's look ahead to the next 10 years. We've got a lot going on, so I think wait and see the big wave. So, to me, the big wave will start David on the ways I think the big wave is value proposition. Is the business model evolution? I think that's going to be a way that will constantly be the North Star or transformation. If whatever people are buying or operating, whether it's their infrastructure or their operating model, it has to have direct contribution to the business model, the company. So I think that's 12 I think AI and data will continue to power a lot of the value. And I think networking is going to be cloud ified. And the impact of that is going to be that as cloud and hybrid computing becomes a technical solution that achieves cheese, the operation model of companies you're going to start to see Multi Cloud emerged as a solution of that meaning Multi cloud isn't a technology. It's an outcome of hybrid combination of cloud. And that's going to change how packets are routed, how packets are networked. I think data ai and a complete transformation of the of the engine of business is gonna happen the next 10 years more than we've ever seen before. And I call this Dev Ops 234 point. Oh, do this. Is it a complete new engine of innovation. Technically, with storage, compute networking, where the application focus is going to be business driven, almost dynamic, almost real time. I think that will be a 10 year horizon. I wrote a Twitter post on this just a few minutes ago, and the lead architect for Azure tweeted back and said late, See, Layton sees never changes >>John. The innovation cocktail, as you said, is, What's the driver going forward, Right? >>Yes, exactly The speed of light. You can't solve that problem without putting points of presence all over, but >>the network architecture is what defines. It's, too, and I've been talking about network automation. We talked about Dev ops. But if you think of hybrid as a technical solution, how you work with public and private premises, Edge is just now a new network configuration that is going to be a very instrumental engineering task, which will actually impact how the software engineers, >>to your point, the latency that's physics and that's the plumbing and the plumbing is going to be there. But I do feel like we're exiting the cloud era into a new era of this innovation cocktail that you talk about the sandwich, which is cloud data plus AI plus digital services. And that's really what we're gonna be talking about 8 to 10 years from now is how organizations are applying those digital services and which companies, whether they're cloud native companies or guys like Cisco and IBM, HP Deli, EMC, how they're leveraging those waves and applying them >>to their business. And I'd be curious. See how the standards evolve around, whether it's de facto standards around interoperability around data, >>and you could look at what's >>happening with data privacy. You start to see the tell signs that data is going to be starting managed, just like packets are managed. It's like a whole interesting dynamic. >>But really what? This is the payoff for what company has been working on to be able to move faster. It was before was okay, used to take 18 months, and now I could do it a few months. But now I can react to that business between the automation, the machine learning, you know, putting together cloud, and you're gonna be able to refocus your workforce to be able to respond to the business and drive new value. >>All right, guys, we got to wrap up guest coming up. Appreciate the commentary. I'll just say that Dave Tesla. You mentioned one of your bringing analysis what Tesla did to the automobile company. I think there's going to be someone in the enterprise that comes out of the woodwork that changes the game on everybody. I think opportunity for that kind of new entrant >>in the same way Amazon. >>Did you think? >>I think Amazon is now an incumbent. I mean, look at the size and scale of it is always an opportunity for that bowl start up company. So it takes a kind of new dynamic electricity with cars, so we'll see. Okay, that's a wrap up. This is a cube conversation here in Barcelona for Cisco Live. I'm John. First Minutemen. Dave Vellante breaking down the Enterprise for the next 10 >>years. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah