>>from the Cube Studios in Palo Alto and Boston connecting with thought leaders all >>around the world. This is a cube conversation, Everyone. Welcome to this week's Cube insights, powered by ET are My name is Dave Volante, and we've been reporting every week really on the code. 19. Impact on Budgets Docker Korakia is back in with me soccer. It's great to see you really >>again for having >>your very welcome. Soccer is, of course, the director of research, that we are our data partner and man. I mean, you guys have just been digging into the data or a court reiterate We're down, you know, roughly around minus 5% for the year. The thing about what we're doing here and where they want to stress in the audience that that's going to change. The key point is we don't just do ah, placeholder and update you in December. Every time we get new information, we're going to convey it to you. So let's get right into it. What we want to do today is you kind of part two from the takeaways that we did last week. So let's start with the macro guys. If you bring up the first chart, take us through kind of the top three takeaways. And just to reiterate where we're at >>Yeah, no problem. And look, as you mentioned, uh, what we're doing right now is we're collecting the pulse of CIOs. And so things change on and we continue to expect them to change, you know, in the next few weeks, in the next few months, as things change with it. So just kind of give a recap of the survey and then kind of going through some of our top macro takeaways. So in March mid March, we launched our Technology Spending Intention Survey. We had 1250 CIOs approximately. Take that survey. They provided their updated 2020 verse 2019 spending intentions, right? So effectively, they first Davis, those 20 21st 19 spending intentions in January. And then they went ahead and up state of those based on what happened with move it and then in tandem with that, we did this kind of over 19 drill down survey where we asked CEOs to estimate the budget impact off overnight in versus what they originally forecast in the year. And so that leads us to our first take away here, where we essentially aggregated the data from all these CIOs in that Logan 19 drill down survey. And we saw a revision of 900 basis points so down to a decline of 5%. And so coming into the year, the consensus was about 4% growth. Ah, and now you can see we're down about 5% for the year. And again, that's subject to change. And we're going again re measure that a Z kind of get into June July and we have a couple of months under our belt with the folks at night. The second big take away here is, you know, the industries that are really indicating those declines and spend retail, consumer airlines, financials, telco I key services in consulting. Those are the verticals, as we mentioned last week, that we're really seeing some of the largest Pullbacks and spend from consumers and businesses. So it makes sense that they are revising their budgets downwards the most. And then finally, the last thing we captured that we spoke about last week as well as a few weeks before that, and I think that's really been playing out the last kind of week in 1/2 earnings is CIOs are continuing to press the pedal on digital transformation. Right? We saw that with Microsoft, with service now last night, right, those companies continued the post good numbers and you see good demand, what we're seeing and where those declines that we just mentioned earlier are coming from. It's it's the legacy that's the on premise that your place there's such a concentration of loss and deceleration within some of those companies. And we'll kind of get into that more a Z go through more slides. But that's really what kind of here, you know, that's really what we need to focus on is the declines are coming from very select vendors. >>Yeah, and of course you know where we were in earning season now, and we're paying close attention to that. A lot of people say I just ignore the earnings here, you know, you got the over 19 Mulligan, but But that's really not right. I mean, obviously you want to look at balance sheets, you want to look at cash flows, but also we're squinting through some of the data your point about I t services and insulting is interesting. I saw another research firm put out that you know, services and consulting was going to be OK. Our data does, you know, different. Uh, and we're watching. For instance, Jim Kavanaugh on IBM's earnings call was very specific about the metrics that they're watching. They're obviously very concerned about pricing and their ability. The book business. There we saw the cloud guys announced Google was up in the strong fifties. The estimate is DCP was even higher up in the 80% range. Azure, you know, we'll talk about this killing it. I mean, you guys have been all over of Microsoft and its presence, you know, high fifties aws solid at around 34% growth from a larger base. But as we've been reporting, you know, downturns. They've been they've been good to cloud. >>That's right. And I think, you know, based on the data that we've captured, um, you know, it's people are really pressing the pedal on cloud and SAS with this much remote work, you need to have you know, that structure in place to maintain productivity. >>Okay, let's bring up the next slide. Now. We've been reporting a lot on this sort of next generation work loads Bob one Dato all about storage and infrastructures of service. Compute. There's an obviously some database, but there's a new analytics workload emerging. Uh, and it's kind of replacing, or at least disinter mediating or disrupting the traditional e d ws. I've said for years. CDW is failed to live up to its expectations of 360 degree insights and real time data, and that's really what we're showing here is some of the traditional CDW guys are getting hit on Some of the emerging guys, um, are looking pretty good. So take us through what we're looking at here. Soccer. >>Yeah, no problem. So we're looking at the database data warehousing sector. What you're looking at here is replacement rates. Um And so, as example, if you see up in with roughly 20% replacement, what that means is one out of five people who took the survey for that particular sector for that vendor indicated that they were replacing, and so you can see here for their data. Cloudera, IBM, Oracle. They have very elevated and accelerating replacement rates. And so when we kind of think about this space. You can really see the bifurcation, right? Look how well positioned the Microsoft AWS is. Google Mongo, Snowflake, low replacements, right low, consistent replacements. And then, of course, on the left hand side of the screen, you're really seeing elevated, accelerating. And so this space is It kind of goes with that theme that we've been talking about that we covered last week by application, right when you think about the declines that you're seeing and spend again, it's very targeted for a lot of these kind of legacy legacy vendors. And we're again. We're seeing a lot of the next gen players that Microsoft AWS in your post very strong data. And so here, looking within database, it's very clear as to which vendors are well positioned for 2020 and which ones look like they're being ripped out and swapped out in the next few months. >>So this to me, is really interesting. So you know, you you've certainly reported on the impact that snowflake is having on Terra data. And in some of IBM's business, the old man, he's a business. You can see that here. You know, it's interesting. During the Hadoop days, Cloudera Horton works when they realize that it didn't really make money on Hadoop. They sort of getting the data management and data database and you're seeing that is under pressure. It's kind of interesting to me. Oracle, you know, is still not what we're seeing with terror data, right, Because they've got a stranglehold on the marketplace That's right, hanging in there. Right? But that snowflake would no replacements is very impressive. Mongo consistent performer. And in Google aws, Microsoft AWS supports with Red Shift. They did a one time license with Park Cell, which was an MPP database. They totally retooled a thing. And now they're sort of interestingly copycatting snowflake separating compute from storage and doing some other moves. And yet they're really strong partners. So interesting >>is going on and even, you know, red shift dynamodb all. They all look good. All these all these AWS products continue screen Very well. Ah, in the data warehousing space, So yeah, to your point, there's a clear divergence of which products CIOs want to use and which ones they no longer want in their stack. >>Yeah, the database market is very much now fragment that it used to be in an Oracle db two sequel server. As you mentioned, you got a lot of choices. The Amazon. I think I counted, you know, 10 data stores, maybe more. Dynamodb Aurora, Red shift on and on and on. So a really interesting space, a lot of activity in that new workload that I'm talking about taking, Ah, analytic databases, bringing data science, pooling into that space and really driving these real time insights that we've been reporting on. So that's that's quite an exciting space. Let's talk about this whole workflow. I t s m a service now. Just just announced, uh, we've been consistently crushing it. The Cube has been following them for many, many years, whether, you know, from the early days of Fred Luddy, Bruce Lukman, the short time John Donahoe. And now Bill McDermott is the CEO, but consistent performance since the AIPO. But what are we actually showing here? Saga? Yeah, You bring up that slot. Thank you. >>So our key take away on kind of the i t m m i t s m i t workflow spaces. Look, it's best in breed, which is service now, or some of the lower cost providers. Right There's really no room for middle of the pack, so >>this is an >>interesting charts. And so what you're looking at here, there's a few directives, so kind of walk you through it and then I'll walk through. The actual results is we're looking within service now accounts. And so we're seeing how these companies are doing within or among customers that are using service. Now, today, where you're looking at on the ex, access is essentially shared market share our shared customers, and then on the Y axis you're seeing essentially the spend velocity off those vendors within service. Now's outs, right? So if the vendor was doing well, you would see them moving up into the right, right? That means they're having more customer overlap with service now, and they're also accelerating Spend, but you can see if you will get zendesk. If you look at BMC, it's a managed right. You can see there either losing market share and spend within service now accounts or they're losing spend right and zendesk is another example Here, Um, and what's actually interesting is, and we've had a lot of anecdotal evidence from CIOs is that look they start with service. Now it's best in breed, but a few of them have said, Look, it's got expensive, Um, and so they would move over Rezendes. And then they would look at it versus a conference that last year, and we had a few CEO say, Look at last quarter of the price of zendesk. Andi moved away from Zendesk and subsequently well, with last year. And so it's just it's interesting that, you know, during these times where you know CIOs are reducing their budgets on that look, it's either best of breed or low cost. There's really no room in the middle, and so it's actually kind of interesting. In this space, it's It's an interesting dynamic and being usually it's best of breed or low cost. Rarely do you kind of see both win, and I think that's what kind of makes the space interesting. >>I've been following service now for a number of years. I just make a few comments there. First of all, you know, workday was the gold standard in enterprise software for the longest time and, you know, company and and and I I always considered service now to be kind of part of that you know Silicon Valley Mafia with Frank's Loop. But what's happened is, you know, Sluman did a masterful job of identifying the total available market and executing with demand, and now you know, his successors have picking it beyond there. You know, service now has a market cap that's not quite double, but I mean, I think workday last I checked was in the mid thirties. Service now is market valuation is up in the 60 billion range. I mean, they announced, um uh, just recently, very interestingly, they be expectations. They lowered their guidance relative to consensus guide, but I think the street hose, first of all, they beat their numbers and they've got that SAS model, that very predictable model. And I think people are saying, Look there, just leaving meat on the bone so they can continue to be because that's been their sort of m o these last several years. So you got to like their positioning and you get to talk to customers. They are pricey. You do hear complaints about that, and they've got a strong lock spec. But generally I got my experiences. If people can identify business value and clear productivity, they work through the lock in, you know, they'll just fight it out in the negotiations with procurement. >>That's right, and two things on that. So with service now and and even Salesforce, right, they are a platform like approach type of vendors right where you build on them. And that's what makes them such break companies, right? Even if they have, you know, little nicks and knacks here and there. When they report people see past that right, they understand their best of breed. You build your companies on the service now's and the sales forces of the world. And to the second point, you're exactly right. Businesses want to maintain consistent productivity on, and I think that, you know, is it kind of resonates with the theme, right, doubling down on Cloud and sas. Um, as as you have all this remote work, as you have kind of, you know, questionable are curating marquee a macro environment organizations want to make sure that their employees continue to execute that they're generating consistent productivity. And using these kind of best of breed tools is the way to go. >>It's interesting you mentioned, uh, salesforce and service now for years I've been saying they're on a collision course we haven't seen yet because they're both platforms. I still, uh I'm waiting for that to happen. Let's bring up the next card and let's get into networking way talk. Um Ah. Couple of weeks ago, about the whole shift from traditional Mpls moving to SD win. And this sort of really lays it out. Take us through the data here, please. >>Yeah, no problem. So we're just looking at a handful of vendors here. Really? We're looking at networking vendors that have the highest adoption rates within cloud accounts. And so what we did was we looked inside of aws azure GCC, right. We essentially isolated just those customers. And then we said which networking vendors are seeing the best spend data and the most adoptions within those cloud accounts. And so you get you can kind of see some, uh, some themes here, right? SD lan. Right. You can see Iraqi their VM. Where nsx. You see some next gen load balance saying are they're on the cdn side right then. And so you're seeing a theme here of more next gen players on You're not really seeing a lot of the mpls vendors here, right? They're the ones that have more flattening, decreasing and replacing data. And so the reason just kind of going on this slide is you know, when you kind of think about the networking space as a whole, this is where adoptions are going. This is this is where spends billing and expanded, arise it. And what we just talked about >>your networking such a fascinating space to me because you got you got the leader and Cisco That has helped 2/3 of the market for the longest time, despite competitors like Arista, Juniper and others trying to get in the Air Force and NSX. And the big Neisseria acquisition, you know, kind of potentially disrupted that. But you can see, you know, Cisco, they don't go down without a fight. And ah, there, let's take a look at the next card on Cdn. You know, this is interesting. Uh, you know, you think with all this activity around work from home and remote offices, there's a hot area, But what are we looking at here? >>Yeah, no problem. And that's right, right? You would think. And so we're looking at Cdn players here you would think with the uptake in traffic, you would see fantastic. That scores right for all the cdn vendor. So what you're looking at here and again there's a few lenses on here, so I kind of walk. You kind of walk the audience through here is first we isolated only those individuals that were accelerating their budgets due to work from home. Right. So we've had this conversation now for a few weeks where support employees working from home. You did see a decent number of organizations. I think it was 20 or 30% of organizations at the per server that indicated they're actually accelerate instead. So we're looking at those individuals. And then what we're doing is we're seeing how are how's Cloudflare and aka my performing within those accounts, right? And so we're looking at those specific customers and you could just see within Cloudflare and we practice and security and networking which by more the Cdn piece, How consistent elevated the date is right? This is spend in density, right? Not overall market share is obviously aka my you know, their brand father CD ends. They have the most market share and if you look at optimized to the right. Now you can see the spend velocity is not very good. It's actually negative across boats sector. So you know it's not. We're not saying that. Look, there's a changing of the guard that's occurring right now. We're still relatively small compared talk my But there's just such a start on trust here and again, it kind of goes to what we're talking about. Our macro themes, right? CIOs are continuing to invest in next gen Technologies, and better technologies on that is having an impact on some of these legacy. And, you know, grandfather providers. >>Well, I mean, I think as we enter this again, I've said a number of times. It's ironic overhead coming into a new decade. And you're seeing this throughout the I T. Stack, where you've got a lot of disruptors and you've got companies with large install bases, lot of on Prem or a lot of historical legacy. Yeah, and it's very hard for them to show growth. They often times squeeze R and D because they gotta serve Wall Street. And this is the kind of dilemma they're in, and the only good news with a comma here is there is less bad security go from negative 20% to a negative 8% net score. Um, but wow, what a what a contrast, but to your point, much, much smaller base, but still very relevant. We've seen this movie before. Let's let's wrap with another area that we've talked about. What is virtualization? Desktop virtualization? Beady eye again. A beneficiary of the work from home pivot. Um, And we're focused here, right on Fortune 500 net scores. But give us the low down on this start. >>Yeah, So this is something that look, I think it's it's pretty obvious to into the market you're seeing an uptake and spend across the board versus three months ago in a year ago and spending, etc. Among your desktop virtualization players, there's FBI, right? So that's gonna be your VPN right now. Obviously, they reported pretty good numbers there, so this is an obvious slide, but we wanted to kind of throw it in there. Just say, look, you know, these organizations are seeing nice upticks incent, you know, within the virtualization sectors, specifically within Fortune 500 again, that's kind of, you know, work from home spend that we're seeing here, >>right? So, I mean, this is really a 100% net score in the Fortune 500 for workspaces is pretty amazing. And I think the shared in on this that the end was actually quite large. It wasn't like single digits, Many dozens. I remember when Workspaces first came out, it maybe wasn't ready for prime time. But clearly there's momentum there, and we're seeing this across the board saga. Thanks so much for coming in this week. Really appreciate it. We're gonna be in touch with with you with the TR. We're gonna continue to report on this, but start Dr stay safe. And thanks again. >>Thanks again. Appreciate it. Looking for to do another one. >>All right. Thank you. Everybody for watching this Cube insights Powered by ET are this is Dave Volante for Dr Sadaaki. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. I published weekly on wiki bond dot com Uh, and also on silicon angle dot com Don't forget tr dot Plus, Check out all the action there. Thanks for watching everybody. We'll see you next time. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah