from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston connecting with thought leaders all around the world this is a cube conversation as we've been reporting the Koba 19 pandemic has created a bifurcated IT spending picture and over the last several weeks we've reported both on the macro and even some come at it from from a vendor and a sector view I mean for example we've reported on some of the companies that have really continued to thrive we look at the NASDAQ and its you know near at all-time highs companies like oh and in CrowdStrike we've reported on snowflake uipath the sectors are PA some of the analytic databases around AI maybe even to a lesser extent cloud but still has a lot of tailwind relative to some of those on-prem infrastructure plays even companies like Cisco bifurcated in and of themselves where you see this Meraki side of the house you know doing quite well the work from home stuff but maybe some of the traditional networking not as much well now what if you flip that to really try to understand what's going on with the shape of the recovery which is the main narrative right now is it a v-shape does it a u-shape what is what's that what do people expect and now you understand that you really have to look at different industries because different industries are going to come back at a different pace with me again is Sagar khadiyah who's the director of research at EGR Sagar you guys are all over this as usual timely information it's great to see you again hope all is well in New York City thanks so much David it's a pleasure to be back on again yeah so where are we in the cycle we give dividend a great job and very timely ETR was the first to really put out data on the koban impact with the survey that ran from mid-march to to mid-april and now everybody's attention sagar is focused on okay we're starting to come back stores are starting to open people are beginning to to go out again and everybody wants to know what the shape of the recovery looks like so where are we actually in that research cycle for you guys yeah no problem so like you said you know in that kind of march/april timeframe we really want to go out there and get an idea of what we're doing the budget impacts you know as it relates to IT because of kovat 19 right so we kind of ended off there around a decline of 5% and coming into the year the consensus was of growth of 4 or 5% right so we saw about a 900,000 basis points wing you know to the negative side and the public covered in March and April were you know which sectors and vendors were going to benefit as a result of work from home and so now as we kind of fast forward to the research cycle as we kind of go more into May and into the summer rather than asking those exact same question to get again because it's just been you know maybe 40 or 50 days we really want Singh on the recovery type as well as kind of more emerging private vendors right we want to understand what's gonna be the impact on on these vendors that typically rely on you know larger conferences more in-person meetings because these are younger technologies there's not a lot of information about them and so last Thursday we launched our biannual emerging technology study it covers roughly 300 private emerging technologies across maybe 60 sectors of technology and in tandem we've launched a co-ed flash poll right what we wanted to do was kind of twofold one really understand from CIOs the recovery type they had in mind as well as if they were seeing any any kind of permanent changes in their IT stacks IT spend because of koban 19 and so if we kind of look at the first chart here and kind of get more into that first question around recovery type what we asked CIOs and this kind of COBIT flash poll again we did it last Thursday was what type of recovery are you expecting is it v-shaped so kind of a brief decline you know maybe one quarter and then you're gonna start seeing growth in 2 to H 20 is it you shaped so two to three quarters of a decline or deceleration revenue and you're kind of forecasting that growth in revenue as an organization to come back in 2021 is it l-shaped right so maybe three four five quarters of a decline or deceleration and then you know very minimal to moderate growth or none of the above you know your organization is actually benefiting from from from koban 19 as you know we've seen some many reports so those are kind of the options that we gave CIOs and you kind of see it on that first chart here interesting and this is a survey a flash service 700 CIOs or approximately and the interesting thing I really want to point out here is this you know the koban pandemic was it didn't suppress you know all companies you know and in the return it's not going to be a rising tide lifts all ships you really got to do your research you have to understand the different sectors really try to peel back the onion skin and understand why there's certain momentum how certain organizations are accommodating the work from home we heard you know several weeks ago how there's a major change in in networking mindsets we're talking about how security is changing we're going to talk about some of the permanence but it's really really important to try to understand these different trends by different industries which you're going to talk about in a minute but if you take a look at this slide I mean obviously most people expect this u-shaped decline I mean a you know a u-shaped recovery rather so it's two or three quarters followed by some growth next year but as we'll see some of these industries are gonna really go deeper with an l-shape recovery and then it's really interesting that a pretty large and substantial portion see this as a tailwind presumably those with you know strong SAS models some annual recurring revenue models your thoughts if we kind of star on this kind of aggregate chart you know you're looking at about forty four percent of CIOs anticipated u-shaped recovery right that's the largest bucket and then you can see another 15 percent and to say an l-shape recovery 14 on the v-shaped and then 16 percent to your point that are kind of seeing this this tailwind but if we kind of focus on that largest bucket that you shaped you know one of the thing to remember and again when we asked is two CIOs within the within this kind of coded flash poll we also asked can you give us some commentary and so one of the things that or one of the themes that are kind of coming along with this u-shaped recovery is you know CIOs are cautiously optimistic about this u-shaped recovery you know they believe that they can get back on to a growth cycle into 2021 as long as there's a vaccine available we don't go into a second wave of lockdowns economic activity picks up a lot of the government actions you know become effective so there are some kind of let's call it qualifiers with this bucket of CIOs that are anticipating a u-shape recovery what they're saying is that look we are expecting these things to happen we're not expecting that our lock down we are expecting a vaccine and if that takes place then we do expect an uptick in growth or going back to kind of pre coded levels in in 2021 but you know I think it's fair to assume that if one or more of these are apps and and things do get worse as all these states are opening up maybe the recovery cycle gets pushed along so kind of at the aggregate this is where we are right now yeah so as I was saying and you really have to understand the different not only different sectors and all the different vendors but you got to look into the industries and then even within industries so if we pull up the next chart we have the industry to the breakdown and sort of the responses by the industries v-shape you shape or shape I had a conversation with a CIO of a major resort just the other day and even he was saying what was actually I'll tell you it was Windham Resorts public company I mean and obviously that business got a good crush they had their earnings call the other day they talked about how they cut their capex in half but the stock sagar since the March lows is more than doubled yeah and you know that's amazing and now but even there within that sector they're peeling that on you're saying well certain parts are going to come back sooner or certain parts are going to longer depending on you know what type of resort what type of hotel so it really is a complicated situation so take us through what you're seeing by industry sure so let's start with kind of the IT telco retail consumer space Dave to your point there's gonna be a tremendous amount of bifurcation within both of those verticals look if we start on the IT telco side you know you're seeing a very large bucket of individuals right over twenty percent that indicated they're seeing a tail with our additional revenue because of covin 19 and you know Dave we spoke about this all the way back in March right all these work from home vendors you know CIOs were doubling down on cloud and SAS and we've seen how some of these events have reported in April you know with this very good reports all the major cloud vendors right select security vendors and so that's why you're seeing on the kind of telco side definitely more positivity right as it relates to recovery type right some of them are not even going through recovery they're they're seeing an acceleration same thing on the retail consumer side you're seeing another large bucket of people who are indicating what we've benefited and again there's going to be a lot of bifurcation here there's been a lot of retail consumers you just mentioned with the hotel lines that are definitely hurting but you know if you have a good online presence as a retailer and you know you had essential goods or groceries you benefited and and those are the organizations that we're seeing you know really indicate that they saw an acceleration due to Koga 19 so I thought those two those two verticals between kind of the IT and retail side there was a big bucket or you know of people who indicated positivity so I thought that was kind of the first kind of you know I was talking about kind of peeling this onion back you know that was really interesting you know tech continues to power on and I think you know a lot of people try I think that somebody was saying that the record of the time in which we've developed a fit of vaccine previously was like mumps or something and it was I mean it was just like years but now today 2020 we've got a I we've got all this data you've got these great companies all working on this and so you know wow if we can compress that that's going to change the equation a couple other things sagar that jump out at me here in this chart I want to ask you about I mean the education you know colleges are really you know kind of freaking out right now some are coming back I know like for instance my daughter University Arizona they're coming back in the fall evidently others are saying and no you can clearly see the airlines and transportation as the biggest sort of l-shape which is the most negative I'm sure restaurants and hospitality are kind of similar and then you see energy you know which got crushed we had you know oil you know negative people paying it big barrels of oil but now look at that you know expectation of a pretty strong you know you shape recovery as people start driving again and the economy picks up so maybe you could give us some thoughts on on some of those sort of outliers yeah so I kind of bucket you know the the next two outliers as from an l-shaped in a u-shaped so on the l-shaped side like like you said education airlines transportation and probably to a little bit lesser extent industrials materials manufacturing services consulting these verticals are indicating the highest percentages from an l-shaped recovery right so three plus orders of revenue declines and deceleration followed by kind of you know minimal to moderate growth and look there's no surprise here those are the verticals that have been impacted the most by less demand from consumers and and businesses and then as you mentioned on the energy utility side and then I would probably bucket maybe healthcare Pharma those have some of the largest percentages of u-shaped recovery and it's funny like I read a lot of commentary from some of the energy in the healthcare CIOs and they were said they were very optimistic about a u-shaped type of recovery and so it kind of you know maybe with those two issues then you could even kind of lump them into you know probably to a lesser extent but you could probably open into the prior one with the airlines and the education and services consulting and IMM where you know these are definitely the verticals that are going to see the longest longest recoveries it's probably a little bit more uniform versus what we've kind of talked about a few minutes ago with you know IT and and retail consumer where it's definitely very bifurcated you know there's definitely winners and losers there yeah and again it's a very complicated situation a lot of people that I've talked to are saying look you know we really don't have a clear picture that's why all these companies have are not giving guidance many people however are optimistic not only for a vet a vaccine but but but also they're thinking as young people with disposable income they're gonna kind of say dorm damn the torpedoes I'm not really going to be exposed and you know they can come back much stronger you know there seems to be pent up demand for some of the things like elective surgery or even the weather is sort of more important health care needs so that obviously could be a snap back so you know obviously we're really closely looking at this one thing though is is certain is that people are expecting a permanent change and you've got data that really shows that on the on the next chart that's right so one of the one of the last questions that we asked on this you know quick coded flash poll was do you anticipate permanent changes to your kind of IT stack IT spend based on the last few months you know as everyone has been working remotely and you know rarely do you see results point this much in one direction but 92% of CIOs and and kind of IT you know high level ITN users indicated yes there are going to be permanent changes and you know one of the things we talked about in March and look we were really the first ones you know you know in our discussion where we were talking about work from home spend kind of negating or balancing out all these declines right we were saying look yes we are seeing a lot of budgets come down but surprisingly we're seeing 2030 percent of organizations accelerate spent and even the ones that are spending less they even then you know some of their some of their budgets are kind of being negated by this work from home spend right when you think about collaboration tool is an additional VPN and networking bandwidth in laptops and then security all that stuff CIOs now continue to spend on because what what CIO is now understand as productivity has remained at very high levels right in March CIOs were very with the catastrophe and productivity that has not come true so on the margin CIOs and organizations are probably much more positive on that front and so now because there is no vaccine where you know CIOs and just in general the population we don't know when one is coming and so remote work seems to be the new norm moving forward especially that productivity you know levels are are pretty good with people working from home so from that perspective everything that looked like it was maybe going to be temporary just for the next few months as people work from home that's how organizations are now moving forward well and we saw Twitter basically said we're gonna make work from home permanent that's probably cuz their CEO wants to you know live in Africa Google I think is going to the end of the year I think many companies are going to look at a hybrid and give employees a choice say look if you want to work from home and you can be productive you get your stuff done you know we're cool with that I think the other point is you know everybody talks about these digital transformations you know leading into Kovan and I got to tell you I think a lot of companies were sort of complacent they talked the talk but they weren't walking the walk meaning they really weren't becoming digital businesses they really weren't putting data at the core and I think now it's really becoming an imperative there's no question that that what we've been talking about and forecasting has been pulled forward and you you're either going to have to step up your digital game or you're going to be in big trouble and the other thing that's I'm really interested in is will companies sub optimize profitability in the near term in order to put better business resiliency in place and better flexibility will they make those investments and I think if they do you know longer term they're going to be in better shape you know if they don't they could maybe be okay in the near term but I'm gonna put a caution sign a little longer term no look I think everything that's been done in the last few months you know in terms of having those continuation plans because you know do two pandemics all that stuff that is now it look you got to have that in your playbook right and so to your point you know this is where CIOs are going and if you're not transforming yourself or you didn't or you know lesson learned because now you're probably having to move twice as fast to support all your employees so I think you know this pandemic really kind of sped up you know digital transformation initiatives which is why you know you're seeing some companies desks and cloud related companies with very good earnings reports that are guiding well and then you're seeing other companies that are pulling their guidance because of uncertainty but it's it's likely more on the side of they're just not seeing the same levels of spend because if they haven't oriented themselves on that digital transformation side so I think you know events like this they typically you know Showcase winners and losers then you know when when things are going well and you know everything is kind of going up well I think that - there's a big you know discussion around is the ESPY overvalued right now I won't make that call but I will say this then there's a lot of data out there there's data and earnings reports there's data about this pandemic which change continues to change maybe not so much daily but you're getting new information multiple times a week so you got to look to that data you got to make your call pick your spot so you talk about a stock pickers market I think it's very much true here there are some some gonna be really strong companies emerging out of this you know don't gamble but do your research and I think you'll you'll find some you know some Dems out there you know maybe Warren Buffett can't find them okay but the guys at Main Street I think you know the I am I'm optimistic I wonder how you feel about about the recovery I I think we may be tainted by tech you know I'm very much concerned about certain industries but I think the tech industry which is our business is gonna come out of this pretty strong yeah we look at the one thing we we should we should have stated this earlier the majority of organizations are not expecting a v-shaped recovery and yet I still think there's part of the consensus is expecting a v-shaped recovery you can see as we demonstrate in some of the earlier charts the you know almost the majority of organizations are expecting a u-shaped recovery and even then as we mentioned right that you shape there is some cautious up around there and I have it you probably have it where yes if everything goes well it looks like 2021 we can really get back on track but there's so much unknown and so yes that does give I think everyone pause when it comes from an investment perspective and even just bringing on technologies and into your organization right which ones are gonna work which ones are it so I'm definitely on the boat of this is a more u-shaped in a v-shaped recovery I think the data backs that up I think you know when it comes to cloud and SAS players those areas and I think you've seen this on the investment side a lot of money has come out of all these other sectors that we mentioned that are having these l-shaped recoveries a lot of it has gone into the tech space I imagine that will continue and so that might be kind of you know it's tough to sometimes balance what's going on on the investor in the stock market side with you know how organizations are recovering I think people are really looking out in two to three quarters and saying look you know to your point where you set up earlier is there a lot of that pent up demand are things gonna get right back to normal because I think you know a lot of people are anticipating that and if we don't see that I think you know the next time we do some of these kind of coded flash bolts you know I'm interested to see whether or not you know maybe towards the end of the summer these recovery cycles are actually longer because maybe we didn't see some of that stuff so there's still a lot of unknowns but what we do know right now is it's not a v-shaped recovery agree especially on the unknowns there's monetary policy there's fiscal policy there's an election coming up there's a third there's escalating tensions with China there's your thoughts on the efficacy of the vaccine what about therapeutics you know do people who have this yet immunity how many people actually have it what about testing so the point I'm making here is it's very very important that you update your forecast regularly that's why it's so great that I have this partnership with you guys because we you know you're constantly updating the numbers it's not just a one-shot deal so suck it you know thanks so much for coming on looking forward to having you on in in the coming weeks really appreciate it absolutely yeah well I will really start kind of digging into how a lot of these emerging technologies are faring because of kovat 19 so that's I'm actually interested to start thinking through the data myself so yeah well we'll do some reporting in the coming weeks about that as well well thanks everybody for watching this episode of the cube insights powered by ETR I'm Dave Volante for sauger kuraki check out ETR dot plus that's where all the ETR data lives i published weekly on wiki bon calm and silicon angle calm and reach me at evil on Tay we'll see you next time [Music]

from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston connecting with thought leaders all around the world this is a cube conversation [Music] hello everybody and welcome to this week wiki bond cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis we want to update you on the latest spending data from EGR as you know we've been tracking this weekly saga kodachi is here he's the director of research at ET our saga thanks for coming on thanks for having me again Dave really appreciate it yes so so let me remind everybody so we entered the Year this year 2020 with a consensus IT spend for cast of plus 4% once coronavirus hit ET are launched its latest survey in March and we saw those numbers you'll come down last week we reported well the first report we made was it looked like it was flat last week we reported a slight negative and today we want to update you guys on those numbers so saga before we get into the data just give us the high level on where you guys are at in terms of your survey yeah no problem so currently we are forecasting a decline in global IT budgets about negative 4% I think what's happened you know over the last you know 10 or 15 days is you've just seen more and more information released that's given organizations more of an understanding of just how severe this you know epidemic is and so what we've been able to do on our end is kind of do an event study analysis or simulation analysis kind of what you're seeing here a really pinpoint the time period where organizations understood the severity of the epidemic and then really trying to measure the declines in IT budgets from there great so guys bring that slide back up I want to share with our audience what's happening here so what ETR has done is an event-based analysis and what you can see is where the survey launched on 3/11 you could see how sentiment has declined literally daily as the data rolled in then you see the US declared a national emergency you saw that the federal plan leaked for that you know penned pandemic protect projection and obviously New York became a hot spot and then you can see this the stimulus package in it and sagger it looks like there's a slight uptick here but generally speaking it's down now it could be worse but you guys were the first to report the offset from work it worked from home infrastructure we'll talk about that a little bit talk about this event analysis and what you're seeing here and how you compressed the analysis hosting these events no problem so let's start with a blue line here and just so the audience knows the x-axis is going to be date and the y-axis is going to be annual growth or decline in nit budgets what you're seeing here and if we start with the blue line is we started pulling on 3/11 and on that date we started to ask you know fortune 100 is fortune 500 how their budget was going to change based on the impacts of coded nineteen versus their original expectations coming into coming into the year and again consensus estimates coming to the year were positive four percent so if you track that line all the way through you get to a decline of about one percent now what's the issue of starting polling on 3/11 or using that blue line well one of the big issues is a few days later the US declared a national emergency so more information was released right I think organizations that took the survey in the first two days didn't have a complete picture as to what's going on and then effectively a week later you saw federal documents get leaked stating how bad this epidemic was right in terms of the last 18 18 plus months and so what we did was we did it effectively an event based analysis or defuse different simulation where if you take a look at the yellow and red lines to start what we're doing is we're effectively saying okay let's ignore everyone that took the survey prior to that let's take their budgets in terms of how they indicated change versus their original expectations for 2020 and then let's go ahead and map that and if you look at the yellow line as an example that goes to a decline of 2% and then once I think you know the next shoe dropped in terms of organizations understanding this is not going to be a few weeks or this is not the common cold or flu once organizations knew this was going to be an 18 plus epidemic you can see if we started pulling respondents from there how much more negative it gets and of course once NYC became the epicenter you saw a little another shoe drop so now those those scenarios or simulations are taking us between a decline of three and four percent and then of course if we look at that last purple line there when the stimulus got announced what we are seeing is it looks like it may have bottomed down we have to continue tracking it because you know again it's just a few days since the stimulus is was passed and so let's see if the data starts improve a little bit or at least stabilize but I think from the last three events in terms of the the federal plan being leaked NYC becoming the epicenter and the stimulus it looks like the market now is fully aware of what's going on and now we're kind of seeing some stabilization in the data in terms of the declines for 2020 so between the feds action and the the fiscal stimulus we've we've seen some optimism although people are really cautious of course remember folks this would be worse were it not for the shift in spend to work from home infrastructure not just collaboration and visualization tools but other infrastructure around that network bandwidth security desktop virtualization etc so guys if you bring up the next chart I want to set this up we've been reporting this framework for a while now what this shows is what the sentiment is in terms of the budget change and you can see the gray bar now is 35% it started at 40% so that's dropped so the percentage of CIO saying no change the green is held pretty steady at around 20 to 22% that's it's roughly in there and the red you know has been has been shifting and you can see most of the green ie spending more in 2020 is focused on that you know one to two ten percent but but Sagar bring us up to date now we're going to settle in it right now about three and a half to four percent on the negative side give us some color on this chart please yeah no problem so the best way to connect this chart with what we saw earlier is this is a snapshot so this is a single day so this is the data that is feeding the time series chart kind of help the audience understand what's going on so if we were to look at this exact chart Oh since March 11 you would see that midpoint Average effectively coming down every day and that's effectively what's making up that time series in terms of this chart you know Dave you kind of hit it right on the nail you're kind of seeing the positivity remain or be stable and again that's that work from home infrastructure as you as you mentioned right the collaboration pools no the virtualization support services networking bandwidth all that stuff right being more and more security but on the negative side I think what you're seeing is that again as organizations now understand the severity of the epidemic I think as we understand further and we've talked about this you know a few weeks ago that organizations were anticipating less demand they were anticipating an uptick in broken supply chains now you're starting to see some of that play out and as a result you're seeing organizations get more and more negative and that's why that midpoint average it keeps declining that's why those red bars keep going up is the the impacts in you know based on the data are are now starting to be to be seen and so you know let's see if the stimulus stabilizes this data and we'll continue tracking that you know over the next few weeks the next few months okay so basically we're coming in - three and a half to four percent that's where we are today we're not going to get detailed into some of the vendors today we talked a little bit about that last week and go back to last week's breaking analysis you can see some of that vendor commentary I want to talk about what happens next ETR now we'll go into a two-week quite self-imposed quiet period and really start crunching the data at the end of that quiet period they will release to their private clients the their latest thinking in a webcast after that time we at the cube are allowed to share public information and we're gonna drill down into some of the segments that our community is most interested in but-but-but etrs going quiet now so saga maybe you can explain that sequence and fill in any holes that I missed there yeah no problem the next two weeks so we've we've collected a tremendous amount of data you know we're over you know we're at a hundred fortune 100 organizations you know almost three four hundred global two thousand organizations and so we're at a point now where it's time to start aggregating the data start really analyzing it going through this Koga drill down that we conducted but also we conducted a tremendous study on technology spending intentions of crossing over 350 vendors dozens of Technology sectors and so now it's really a time to kind of drill in and you know what what we're looking for or even some of the biggest takeaways from from this Cove it you know drill down is you know if if you started polling before 3:23 chances are your forecast is gonna come in light and I think that's one of the things that we've learned as we're kind of going into this to hear it is we really want to measure the impact starting right around that 3:23 timeframe it looks right around then based on that time series chart that we showed earlier that's when the market fully understood the impact of this epidemic and so as we start over the next two weeks even though we started pulling a little bit early we really want to focus on that second set a second half of responses because that's probably gonna be more indicative of what's going on I think the second thing is gonna be look if condition of conditions continue to deteriorate things can get worse and so we may come out of the next two weeks with this data that we collected and again have to continue indicating that you know the environment has continued coming down and you know maybe we may have to make adjustments as we see fit so I think that's kind of you know this whole situation is so dynamic still and so we're gonna do our best in the next week and a half to kind of get this data to market to at least give everyone an idea here's how everything stands right now and so that people have a good benchmark and then move forward yeah so this is as close to real time really as you can get in some of this IT spending world saga mentioned some of the numbers and in the global 2000 fortune fortune 100 1000 this this end now just the reminder is up over 1200 I believe right Sahra the total and that you've collected this this month that's correct exactly every time we've been doing one of these it's been going up another a couple hundred respondents so yeah we're at a very comfortable level now our sample right now represents five hundred and fifty five billion dollars in annual IP spend you know and global IT spend every year is a little over you know three trillion so this is a significant significant portion of a global IT spend and we feel comfortable at this point kind of going into that quiet period as you mentioned and really start to dig through the results that you know now that we've kind of you know covered the the 10,000 foot or the macro layer so to speak in terms of where budgets are going now it's really time to start drilling down and do the sectors and vendors because this is this is not going to be a every vendors going down or whatever maybe there's so many different dynamics here some vendors are going to do very well because the work for MoMA infrastructure and I think some vendors are gonna do very poorly because one they're not only on the legacy side but they're not really aligned from this whole work from home infrastructure movement so you're gonna see a lot of bifurcation you know as we get into 53 that's right and we're gonna dig into all those segments we're gonna look at the work from home we're gonna look at the traditional stuff we're gonna look at cloud we're gonna drill into specific segments that are that are of interest to our community it's a pleasure to really have you on here Sagar thank you for for sharing giving us access to this data and and stay safe and we will be watching go to ETR dot plus and you know check out what's happening there Silicon Engel Tom will obviously cover this and I published weekly on wiki bond comm again that saga thanks so much for coming on the cube yeah no problem thank you so much and looking forward to catching up in a few weeks all right then thank you for watching everybody this is Dave a latte for the cube or wiki bounce cube insights powered by ETR we'll see you next time [Music]