Peter Adderton, Mobile X Global, Inc. & Nicolas Girard, OXIO | Cloud City Live 2021
>> Okay. We're back here. theCube and all the action here in Mobile World Congress, cloud city, I'm John ferry, host of the cube. We've got a great remote interviews. Of course, it's a hybrid event here in the cube. And of course, cloud city's bringing all the physical face-to-face and we're going to get the remote interviews. Peter Adderton, founder, chairman, CEO of Mobile X Global. Nicholas Gerrard, founder and CEO of OxyGo. Gentlemen, thank you for coming in remotely onto the cube here in the middle of cloud city. You missed Bon Jovi last night, he was awesome. The little acoustic unplugged and all the action. Thanks for coming on. >> Yeah, thanks for having us. >> All right, Peter and Nicholas, if you don't mind, just take a quick 30 seconds to set the table on what you guys do, your business and your focus here at Mobile World Congress. >> So I'll jump in quickly. Being the Australian, I'll go first, but just quick by way of background, I founded a company called Boost Mobile, which is one of the, is now the fourth largest mobile brand in, in America. And I spent a lot of time managing effort in that, in that space and now launching Mobile X, which is kind of the first cloud AI platform that we're going to build for mobile. >> Awesome. Nicholas. >> So I'm a founder of a company called, Ox Fuel where we do is basically a telecommunity service platform for brands to basically incorporate telecom as part of their services and learn from their customers through what we call a telecom business intelligence. So basically making sense of the telecom data to improve their business across retail, financial services or in-demand economy. >> Awesome. Well, thanks for the setup. Peter, I want to ask you first, if you don't mind, the business models in the telecom area is really becoming, not just operate, but build and build new software enabled software defined just cloud-based software. And this has been a change in mindset, not so much a change so much in the actual topologies per se, or the actual investments, but as a change in personnel. What's your take on this whole cloud powering the change in the future of telco? >> Well, I think you've got to look at where the telcos have come from in order to understand where they're going in the future. And where they've come from is basically using other people's technology to try to create a differentiation. And I think that that's the struggle that they're going to have. They talk about wanting to convert themselves from telcos into techcos. I just think it's a leap too far for the carriers to do that. So I think we're going to see, you know, them pushing 5G, which you see they're doing out there right now. Then they start talking about open rand and cloud and, and at the end of the day, all they want to do is basically sell you a plan, give you a phone attached to that and try to make as much money out of you as they possibly can. And they disguise that basically in the whole technology 5G open rand discussion, but they really, I don't think care. And at the end of the day, I don't think the consumers care, their model isn't built around technology. The model is built around selling your data and, and that's their fundamental principle and how they do that. And I've seen them go through from 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G. Every G we see come out has a promise of something new and incredible. But what we basically get is a data plan with the minutes. Right? >> Yeah, yeah I totally right on. And I think we're going to get into the whole edge piece of what that's going to open up when you start thinking about what, what the capabilities are and this new stakeholders who are going to have an interest in the trillions of dollars on the table right now, up for grabs. But Nicholas wanted to get to you on this whole digital-first thing, because one of the things we've been saying on theCube and interviewing folks and riffing on is: If digital drives more value and there's new use cases that are going to bring on, that's going to enabled by software. There's now new stakeholders coming and saying, Hey, you know what? I need more than just a pipe. I need more than just the network. I need to actually run healthcare. I need to run education on the edge. These are now industrial and consumer related use cases. I mean, this is software. This is where software and apps shine. So cloud native can enable that. So what's your take on the industry as they start to wake up and say, holy shit, this is going to be pretty massive when you look at what's coming. Not so much what's going to be replatformed, but what's coming. >> Yeah, no, I think it's a, it's where I kind join Peter on this. There's been pretty significant, heavy innovation on the carrier side for, you know, if you think about it 30 years or so of like just reselling plans effectively, which is a virtual slice of the network that built. And all of a sudden they started competing against, you know, the heavyweights on the internet. We had, putting the bar really high in terms of, you know, latency in terms of expectation, in terms of APIs, right? We've we've heard about telecom APIs for 15 years, right? It's- nothing comes close to what you could get if you start building on top of a Stripe or a Google. So I think, it's going to be hard for a lot of those companies. What we do with our show is we try to bridge that gap. Right, we try to build on top of their infrastructure to be able to expose modern APIs, to be able to open up a programmatic interface so that innovators like Peter's are able to actually really take the user experience forward and start, building those specialized businesses across healthcare, financial services, and whatnot. >> Yeah, David Blanca and I were on the, on theCube yesterday talking about how Snowflake, a company that basically sits on top of Amazon built almost nothing on the infrastructure. Built on top of it and was successful. Peter, this is a growth thing. One of the things I want to get your thoughts on is you've had experiences in growing companies. How do you look at the growth coming into this market, Peter, because you know, you got to have new opportunities coming in. It's a growth play too. It's not just take share from someone. It's net new capabilities. >> Yeah. Here's the issue you've got with the wireless industry is that there's only a very few amount of them that actually have that last mile covered. So if you're going to build something on top of it, you're going to have to deal with the carrier, and the carrier as out of like a duopoly slash monopoly, because without their access to their network, you're not going to be able to do these incredible things. So I think we've got a real challenge there where you're going to have to get the carriers to innovate. Now you've got the CEO of Deutsche Telekom coming out yesterday saying that the OTT players aren't paying their fair share. Right, and I sit back and go, well, hang on. You're selling data to customers who basically are using that data to use apps and OTT. And now he's saying, well, they should pay as well. So not only the consumer pay, but now the OTT players should pay. It's a mixed message. So what you're going to have to do, and what we're going to have to do as a, as a growth industry is we're going to have to allow it to grow. And the only way to do that is that the carriers are going to have to have better access, allow more access to their networks, as Nico said, let the APIs has become more available. I just think that that's a leap too far. So I think we're going to be handicapped in our growth based on these carriers. And it's going to take regulators and it's going to take innovation and consumers demanding carriers, do it, otherwise, you know, you're still going to deal with the three carriers in your world. >> Yeah, That's interesting about- I was just talking to Danielle Royce, the DR here at TelcoDR. And she said, I was talking about ORAN and there's more infrastructure than needed. She said, oh, it's more software. I don't disagree with her. I do agree with it. But I also think that the ORAN points to, Nicholas, kind of this idea that there's more surface area to be had on the scale side. So standardizing hardware creates a lower fixed cost, so you can get some cost reduction. And then with standardized software, you get more enablement for hardened openness. I mean, open source is already proven. You can still be secure. And obviously Cloud was once said, could never be secure and most, is probably more secure than anything. What's your take on this whole ORAN commodity standardization mission- efforts? >> I think it's a, I mean, it goes along to the second phase, right? Of what the differentiation in telecom was, you know. Early on, specialized boxes that are very expensive. You know, that you, you, you, you get from a few vendors, then you have the transition over to a software. We lower the price, as you were mentioning. It can run on off the shelf hardware. And then we're in the transition, which is what Danielle is, is evangelizing, right. Transition towards the cloud and specifically the public cloud, because there's no such thing as a private cloud really. And, and so up and running is just another, another piece where you can make the Legos connect better effectively and just have more flexibility. And generally the, the, the game here is to also break the agenda when you- from, from the vendors, right? Because now you have a standard, so you don't necessarily need to buy the entire stack from, from the same vendors. You have a lot more flexibility. You know, you've probably followed the same debate that we've all seen, right. With a push against Huawei, for instance. Th-this is extremely hard for an operator, to start ripping out an entire vendor, because most of the time, they, they own the entire stack. But something like ORAN, now you can start mixing and matching with different vendors, but generally this is also a trend that's going to accelerate the move towards the public cloud. >> That's awesome. Peter, I want to get your thoughts because you're basically building on the cloud. And if you don't mind chime it in to kind of end the segment on this one point. People are trying to really get their minds around what refactoring means. And we've been saying, and talking about, you know, the three phases of, of waking up to the world. Reset your business, or reboot. Replatform to the cloud, and then refactor, which means take advantage of cloud enabled things, whether it's AI and other things. But first get on the platform, understand the economics, and then replatform. So the question, Peter, we'll start with you. What does refactoring actually mean and look like in a successful future execution or playbook? Can you share your thoughts, because this is what people want to get to because that's where the value will come from. That's where the iteration gets you. What's your take on this refactoring? >> Yeah, yeah. So I always, I mean, we're in the consumer business, so I'm always about what is the difference going to make for the consumer? So, whether you're, and when you look at refactoring and you look at what's happening in the space. Is what is the difference that's going to, what are the consumers going to see that's different and are they willing to pay for that? And so we can strip away the technical layers and we all get caught up in the industry with these buzzwords and terms, and we get, and at the end of the day, when it moves to the consumer, the consumer just sits there and says, so what's the value? How much am I paying? And so what we're trying to do at MobileX is, we're trying to use the cloud and we're trying to use kind of innovation into create a better experience for the consumer. One way to do that is to basically help the customer, understand their usage patents. You know, right now today, they don't understand that. Right if I asked you how much you paid for your mobile bill, you will tell me my cell phone bill is $150, but I'm going to ask you the next question How much data do you use? You go, I don't know, right? >> John: unlimited. >> And then I'd say why am I started- well you'd say limited, right. I will go. I'd go, I don't know. So I sit back and go, most customers are like you. You're basically paying for a service that you have no clear, no idea what you're getting. And it's designed by the carriers to scare you into thinking you need it. So I think we've got to get away from the buzzwords that we use as an industry and just dumb that down to what, what does that mean for a consumer? And I think that the cloud is going to allow us to create some very unique ways for consumers to interact with their device and their usage of that device. And I think that that's the holy grail for me. >> Yeah. That's a great point. And it's worth calling out because I think if the cloud can get you a 10X value at, at a reduction in costs compared to the competition, that's one benefit that people will pay for. And the other one is just, Hey, that's really cool. I want I'll, I value that, that's a valuable thing. I'll pay for it. So it's interesting that the cloud scale there, it's just a good mindset. >> Yeah. So it's always, I always like say to people, you know, I've spoken a lot to the Dish guys about what open rand is going to do and I keep saying to them, so what's the value that I'm going to get from a consumer. And they'll say, oh it's flexible pricing plans. They're now starting to talk about, okay, what the end product is of this technology. You look at ECM, right? ECM has been around for a long time. It's only now that we're to see ECM technology, get enabled. The carriers fought that for a long, long time. So there's a monumental shift that needs to take place. And it's in the four or five carriers in our counties. >> Awesome. Nicholas, what's your take on refactoring? Obviously, you know, you've got APIs, you've got all this cool software enabled. How do you get to refactoring and how do you execute through that? >> I mean, it's a little bit of a, what Peter was saying as well, right? There's the, the advantage of that point is to be, you know, all our stuff basically lives in the cloud, right. So it's opportunity to, to get that closer, you know, just having better latency, making sure that, you know, you're not losing your, your photos and your data as you lose your phone and yep. Just bet- better access in general. I, I think ultimately like the, the push to the cloud right now is it's mostly just a cost reduction. The back tick, as far as the carriers are concerned, right. They don't necessarily see how they can build that break. And then from there start interacting with the rest of the OTT world and, and, you know, Netflix is built on Amazon and companies like that, right? Like, so as you're able to get closer as a carrier to that cloud where the data lives, this is also just empowering better digital experience. >> Yeah I think that's where the that's, the proof point will be there, as they say, that's where the rubber will meet the road or proof is in the pudding, whatever expression. Once they get to that cost reduction, if they can wake up to that, whoa we can actually do something better here and make m- or if they don't someone else will. Right. That's the whole point. So, final question as we wrap up, ecosystem changeover. Lot more ecosystem action. I mean, there's a lot of vendors here at Mobile Congress, but real quick, Peter, Nicholas, your take on the future of ecosystem around this new telco. Peter, we'll start with you. >> Yeah, I look, I mean, it, it, again, it keeps coming back to, to, to where I say that consumers have driven all the ecosystems that have ever existed. And when I say consumers also to IOT as well, right? So it's not just the B to C it's also B to B. So look to the consumer and look to the business to see what pain points you can solve. And that will create the ecosystems. None of us bet on Uber, none of us bet on Airbnb. Otherwise we'd all be a lot richer than we are today. So none of us took that platform- and by the way, we've been in mobile and wireless and any kind of that space smartphone space for a long time. And we will miss those applications. And if you ask a CEO today of a telco, what's the 5G killer application, that's going to send 5G into the next atmosphere, they can't answer the question. They'll talk about drones and robotic surgeries and all things that basically will never have any value to a consumer at the end of the day. So I think we've got to go back to the consumer and that's where my focus is and say, how do we make their lives better? And that will create the ecosystem. >> Yeah, I mean, they go for the low hanging fruit. Low latency and, and whatnot. But yeah, let's, it's going to be, it's going to be, we'll see what happens. Nicolas your take on ecosystems as they develop. A lot more integrations and not customization. What's your thoughts? >> Yeah, I think so too. I mean, I think going back to, you know, again like 20- 20 years ago, the network was the product conductivity to the product. Today it's a, it's a building block, right? Something that you integrate that's part of your experience. So the same way we're seeing like conversions between telecom and financial services. Right? You see a lot of telcos trying to be banks. Banks and fintechs trying to be telcos. It's, it's a blending of that, right? So it, at the end of the day, it's like, why, what is the experience? What is the above and beyond the conductivity? Because customers, at this point, it's just not differentiated based on conductivity, kind of become just a busy commodity. So even as you look at what Peter is building, right, this, what is the experience above and beyond just buying a plan that I get out of it, or if you are a media company, you know, how do I pair my content or resolve real problems? Like for instance, we work a lot to the NBA and TikTok. They get into markets where, you know, having a video product at the end and people not being well-connected, that's a problem, right? So it's an opportunity for them to bring the building block into their ecosystem and start offering solutions that are a different shape. >> Awesome. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Both of you, both experienced entrepreneurs and executives riding the wave on the right side of history, I believe. Thanks for coming on theCube, I appreciate it. >> Thanks for having us. >> If you're not riding the wave the right way, you're driftwood. And we're going to toss it back to the studio. Adam and the team, take it from here.
SUMMARY :
ferry, host of the cube. on what you guys do, is now the fourth largest Awesome. sense of the telecom data in the actual topologies for the carriers to do that. I need to run education on the edge. heavy innovation on the carrier side for, you know, One of the things I want that the carriers are going to on the scale side. the game here is to also So the question, Peter, but I'm going to ask you the next question and just dumb that down to what, And the other one is just, I always like say to people, you know, and how do you execute that point is to be, you know, the proof point will to see what pain points you can solve. for the low hanging fruit. I mean, I think going back to, you know, riding the wave on the right Adam and the team, take it from here.
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Democratizing AI and Advanced Analytics with Dataiku x Snowflake
>>My name is Dave Volonte, and with me are two world class technologists, visionaries and entrepreneurs. And Wa Dodgeville is the he co founded Snowflake, and he's now the president of the product division. And Florian Duetto is the co founder and CEO of Data Aiko. Gentlemen, welcome to the Cube to first timers. Love it. >>Great to be here >>now, Florian you and Ben Wa You have a number of customers in common. And I have said many times on the Cube that you know, the first era of cloud was really about infrastructure, making it more agile, taking out costs. And the next generation of innovation is really coming from the application of machine intelligence to data with the cloud is really the scale platform. So is that premise your relevant to you? Do you buy that? And and why do you think snowflake and data ICU make a good match for customers? >>I think that because it's our values that are aligned when it's all about actually today allowing complexity for customers. So you close the gap or the democratizing access to data access to technology. It's not only about data data is important, but it's also about the impact of data. Who can you make the best out of data as fast as possible as easily as possible within an organization. And another value is about just the openness of the platform building the future together? Uh, I think a platform that is not just about the platform but also full ecosystem of partners around it, bringing the level off accessibility and flexibility you need for the 10 years away. >>Yeah, so that's key. But it's not just data. It's turning data into insights. Have been why you came out of the world of very powerful but highly complex databases. And we know we all know that you and the snowflake team you get very high marks for really radically simplifying customers lives. But can you talk specifically about the types of challenges that your customers air using snowflake to solve? >>Yeah, so So the really the challenge, you know, be four. Snowflake. I would say waas really? To put all the data, you know, in one place and run all the computers, all the workloads that you wanted to run, You know, against that data and off course, you know, existing legacy platforms. We're not able to support. You know that level of concurrency, Many workload. You know, we we talk about machine learning that a science that are engendering, you know, that our house big data were closed or running in one place didn't make sense at all. And therefore, you know what customers did is to create silos, silos of data everywhere, you know, with different system having a subset of the data. And of course, now you cannot analyze this data in one place. So, snowflake, we really solve that problem by creating a single, you know, architectural where you can put all the data in the cloud. So it's a really cloud native we really thought about You know how to solve that problem, how to create, you know, leverage, Cloud and the lessee cc off cloud to really put all the die in one place, but at the same time not run all workload at the same place. So each workload that runs in Snowflake that is dedicated, You know, computer resource is to run, and that makes it very Ajai, right? You know, Floyd and talk about, you know, data scientists having to run analysis, so they need you know a lot of compute resources, but only for, you know, a few hours on. Do you know, with snowflake they can run these new work lord at this workload to the system, get the compute resources that they need to run this workload. And when it's over, they can shut down. You know that their system, it will be automatically shut down. Therefore, they would not pay for the resources that they don't use. So it's a very Ajai system where you can do this, analyzes when you need, and you have all the power to run all this workload at the same time. >>Well, it's profound what you guys built to me. I mean, of course, everybody's trying to copy it now. It was like, remember that bringing the notion of bringing compute to the data and the Hadoop days, and I think that that Asai say everybody is sort of following your suit now are trying to Florian I gotta say the first data scientist I ever interviewed on the Cube was amazing. Hilary Mason, right after she started a bit Lee. And, you know, she made data science that sounds so compelling. But data science is hard. So same same question for you. What do you see is the biggest challenges for customers that they're facing with data science. >>The biggest challenge, from my perspective, is that owns you solve the issue of the data. Seidel with snowflake, you don't want to bring another Seidel, which would be a side off skills. Essentially, there is to the talent gap between the talented label of the market, or are it is to actually find recruits trained data scientist on what needs to be done. And so you need actually to simplify the access to technologies such as every organization can make it, whatever the talent, by bridging that gap and to get there, there is a need of actually breaking up the silos. And in a collaborative approach where technologists and business work together and actually put some their hands into those data projects together, >>it makes sense for flooring. Let's stay with you for a minute. If I can your observation spaces, you know it's pretty, pretty global, and and so you have a unique perspective on how companies around the world might be using data and data science. Are you seeing any trends may be differences between regions or maybe within different industries. What are you seeing? >>Yes. Yeah, definitely. I do see trends that are not geographic that much, but much more in terms of maturity of certain industries and certain sectors, which are that certain industries invested a lot in terms of data, data access, ability to start data in the last few years and no age, a level of maturity where they can invest more and get to the next steps. And it's really rely on the ability of certain medial certain organization actually to have built this long term strategy a few years ago and no start raping up the benefits. >>You know, a decade ago, Florian Hal Varian, we, you know, famously said that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians. And then everybody sort of change that to data scientists and then everybody. All the statisticians became data scientists, and they got a raise. But data science requires more than just statistics acumen. What what skills >>do >>you see as critical for the next generation of data science? >>Yeah, it's a good question because I think the first generation of the patient is became the licenses because they could done some pipe and quickly on be flexible. And I think that the skills or the next generation of data sentences will definitely be different. It will be first about being able to speak the language of the business, meaning, oh, you translate data inside predictive modeling all of this into actionable insight or business impact. And it would be about you collaborate with the rest of the business. It's not just a farce. You can build something off fast. You can do a notebook in python or your credit models off themselves. It's about, oh, you actually build this bridge with the business. And obviously those things are important. But we also has become the center of the fact that technology will evolve in the future. There will be new tools and technologies, and they will still need to keep this level of flexibility and get to understand quickly, quickly. What are the next tools they need to use the new languages or whatever to get there. >>As you look back on 2020 what are you thinking? What are you telling people as we head into next year? >>Yeah, I I think it's Zaveri interesting, right? We did this crisis, as has told us that the world really can change from one day to the next. And this has, you know, dramatic, you know, and perform the, you know, aspect. For example, companies all the sudden, you know, So their revenue line, you know, dropping. And they had to do less meat data. Some of the companies was the reverse, right? All the sudden, you know, they were online, like in stock out, for example, and their business, you know, completely, you know, change, you know, from one day to the other. So this GT off, You know, I, you know, adjusting the resource is that you have tow the task a need that can change, you know, using solution like snowflakes, you know, really has that. And we saw, you know, both in in our customers some customers from one day to the to do the next where, you know, growing like big time because they benefited, you know, from from from from co vid and their business benefited, but also, as you know, had to drop. And what is nice with with with cloud, it allows to, you know, I just compute resources toe, you know, to your business needs, you know, and really adjusted, you know, in our, uh, the the other aspect is is understanding what is happening, right? You need to analyze the we saw all these all our customers basically wanted to understand. What is that going to be the impact on my business? How can I adapt? How can I adjust? And and for that, they needed to analyze data. And, of course, a lot of data which are not necessarily data about, you know, their business, but also data from the outside. You know, for example, coffee data, You know, where is the States? You know, what is the impact? You know, geographic impact from covitz, You know, all the time and access to this data is critical. So this is, you know, the promise off the data crowd, right? You know, having one single place where you can put all the data off the world. So our customers, all the Children you know, started to consume the cov data from our that our marketplace and and we had the literally thousands of customers looking at this data analyzing this data, uh, to make good decisions So this agility and and and this, you know, adapt adapting, you know, from from one hour to the next is really critical. And that goes, you know, with data with crowding adjusting, resource is on and that's, you know, doesn't exist on premise. So So So indeed, I think the lesson learned is is we are living in a world which machines changing all the time and we have for understanding We have to adjust and and And that's why cloud, you know, somewhere it's great. >>Excellent. Thank you. You know the kid we like to talk about disruption, of course. Who doesn't on And also, I mean, you look at a I and and the impact that is beginning to have and kind of pre co vid. You look at some of the industries that were getting disrupted by, you know, we talked about digital transformation and you had on the one end of the spectrum industries like publishing which are highly disrupted or taxis. And you could say Okay, well, that's, you know, bits versus Adam, the old Negroponte thing. But then the flip side of that look at financial services that hadn't been dramatically disrupted. Certainly healthcare, which is ripe for disruption Defense. So the number number of industries that really hadn't leaned into digital transformation If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Not on my watch. There was this complacency and then, >>of >>course, co vid broke everything. So, florian, I wonder if you could comment? You know what industry or industries do you think you're gonna be most impacted by data science and what I call machine intelligence or a I in the coming years and decades? >>Honestly, I think it's all of them artist, most of them because for some industries, the impact is very visible because we're talking about brand new products, drones like cars or whatever that are very visible for us. But for others, we are talking about sport from changes in the way you operate as an organization, even if financial industry itself doesn't seems to be so impacted when you look it from the consumer side or the outside. In fact, internally, it's probably impacted just because the way you use data on developer for flexibility, you need the kind off cost gay you can get by leveraging the latest technologies is just enormous, and so it will actually transform the industry that also and overall, I think that 2020 is only a where, from the perspective of a I and analytics, we understood this idea of maturity and resilience, maturity, meaning that when you've got a crisis, you actually need data and ai more than before. You need to actually call the people from data in the room to take better decisions and look for a while and not background. And I think that's a very important learning from 2020 that will tell things about 2021 and the resilience it's like, Yeah, Data Analytics today is a function consuming every industries and is so important that it's something that needs to work. So the infrastructure is to work in frustration in super resilient. So probably not on prime on a fully and prime at some point and the kind of residence where you need to be able to plan for literally anything like no hypothesis in terms of behaviors can be taken for granted. And that's something that is new and which is just signaling that we're just getting to the next step for the analytics. >>I wonder, Benoit, if you have anything to add to that. I mean, I often wonder, you know, winter machine's gonna be able to make better diagnoses than doctors. Some people say already, you know? Well, the financial services traditional banks lose control of payment systems. Uh, you know what's gonna happen to big retail stores? I mean, maybe bring us home with maybe some of your final thoughts. >>Yeah, I would say, you know, I I don't see that as a negative, right? The human being will always be involved very closely, but the machine and the data can really have, you know, see, Coalition, you know, in the data that that would be impossible for for for human being alone, you know, you know, to to discover so So I think it's going to be a compliment, not a replacement on. Do you know everything that has made us you know faster, you know, doesn't mean that that we have less work to do. It means that we can doom or and and we have so much, you know, to do, uh, that that I would not be worried about, You know, the effect off being more efficient and and and better at at our you know, work. And indeed, you know, I fundamentally think that that data, you know, processing off images and doing, you know, I ai on on on these images and discovering, you know, patterns and and potentially flagging, you know, disease, where all year that then it was possible is going toe have a huge impact in in health care, Onda and And as as as Ryan was saying, every you know, every industry is going to be impacted by by that technology. So So, yeah, I'm very optimistic. >>Great guys. I wish we had more time. I gotta leave it there. But so thanks so much for coming on. The Cube was really a pleasure having you.
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Democratizing AI & Advanced Analytics with Dataiku x Snowflake | Snowflake Data Cloud Summit
>> My name is Dave Vellante. And with me are two world-class technologists, visionaries and entrepreneurs. Benoit Dageville, he co-founded Snowflake and he's now the President of the Product Division, and Florian Douetteau is the Co-founder and CEO of Dataiku. Gentlemen, welcome to the cube to first timers, love it. >> Yup, great to be here. >> Now Florian you and Benoit, you have a number of customers in common, and I've said many times on theCUBE, that the first era of cloud was really about infrastructure, making it more agile, taking out costs. And the next generation of innovation, is really coming from the application of machine intelligence to data with the cloud, is really the scale platform. So is that premise relevant to you, do you buy that? And why do you think Snowflake, and Dataiku make a good match for customers? >> I think that because it's our values that aligned, when it gets all about actually today, and knowing complexity of our customers, so you close the gap. Where we need to commoditize the access to data, the access to technology, it's not only about data. Data is important, but it's also about the impacts of data. How can you make the best out of data as fast as possible, as easily as possible, within an organization. And another value is about just the openness of the platform, building a future together. Having a platform that is not just about the platform, but also for the ecosystem of partners around it, bringing the level of accessibility, and flexibility you need for the 10 years of that. >> Yeah, so that's key, that it's not just data. It's turning data into insights. Now Benoit, you came out of the world of very powerful, but highly complex databases. And we know we all know that you and the Snowflake team, you get very high marks for really radically simplifying customers' lives. But can you talk specifically about the types of challenges that your customers are using Snowflake to solve? >> Yeah, so the challenge before snowflake, I would say, was really to put all the data in one place, and run all the computes, all the workloads that you wanted to run against that data. And of course existing legacy platforms were not able to support that level of concurrency, many workload, we talk about machine learning, data science, data engineering, data warehouse, big data workloads, all running in one place didn't make sense at all. And therefore be what customers did this to create silos, silos of data everywhere, with different system, having a subset of the data. And of course now, you cannot analyze this data in one place. So Snowflake, we really solved that problem by creating a single architecture where you can put all the data into cloud. So it's a really cloud native. We really thought about how solve that problem, how to create, leverage cloud, and the elasticity of cloud to really put all the data in one place. But at the same time, not run all workload at the same place. So each workload that runs in Snowflake, at its dedicated compute resources to run. And that makes it agile, right? Florian talked about data scientist having to run analysis, so they need a lot of compute resources, but only for a few hours. And with Snowflake, they can run these new workload, add this workload to the system, get the compute resources that they need to run this workload. And then when it's over, they can shut down their system, it will automatically shut down. Therefore they would not pay for the resources that they don't use. So it's a very agile system, where you can do this analysis when you need, and you have all the power to run all these workload at the same time. >> Well, it's profound what you guys built. I mean to me, I mean of course everybody's trying to copy it now, it was like, I remember that bringing the notion of bringing compute to the data, in the Hadoop days. And I think that, as I say, everybody is sort of following your suit now or trying to. Florian, I got to say the first data scientist I ever interviewed on theCUBE, it was the amazing Hillary Mason, right after she started at Bitly, and she made data sciences sounds so compelling, but data science is a hard. So same question for you, what do you see as the biggest challenges for customers that they're facing with data science? >> The biggest challenge from my perspective, is that once you solve the issue of the data silo, with Snowflake, you don't want to bring another silo, which will be a silo of skills. And essentially, thanks to the talent gap, between the talent available to the markets, or are released to actually find recruits, train data scientists, and what needs to be done. And so you need actually to simplify the access to technologies such as, every organization can make it, whatever the talent, by bridging that gap. And to get there, there's a need of actually backing up the silos. Having a collaborative approach, where technologies and business work together, and actually all puts up their ends into those data projects together. >> It makes sense, Florain let's stay with you for a minute, if I can. Your observation space, it's pretty, pretty global. And so you have a unique perspective on how can companies around the world might be using data, and data science. Are you seeing any trends, maybe differences between regions, or maybe within different industries? What are you seeing? >> Yeah, definitely I do see trends that are not geographic, that much, but much more in terms of maturity of certain industries and certain sectors. Which are, that certain industries invested a lot, in terms of data, data access, ability to store data. As well as experience, and know region level of maturity, where they can invest more, and get to the next steps. And it's really relying on the ability of certain leaders, certain organizations, actually, to have built these long-term data strategy, a few years ago when no stats reaping of the benefits. >> A decade ago, Florian, Hal Varian famously said that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians. And then everybody sort of changed that to data scientist. And then everybody, all the statisticians became data scientists, and they got a raise. But data science requires more than just statistics acumen. What skills do you see as critical for the next generation of data science? >> Yeah, it's a great question because I think the first generation of data scientists, became data scientists because they could have done some Python quickly, and be flexible. And I think that the skills of the next generation of data scientists will definitely be different. It will be, first of all, being able to speak the language of the business, meaning how you translates data insight, predictive modeling, all of this into actionable insights of business impact. And it would be about how you collaborate with the rest of the business. It's not just how fast you can build something, how fast you can do a notebook in Python, or do predictive models of some sorts. It's about how you actually build this bridge with the business, and obviously those things are important, but we also must be cognizant of the fact that technology will evolve in the future. There will be new tools, new technologies, and they will still need to keep this level of flexibility to understand quickly what are the next tools they need to use a new languages, or whatever to get there. >> As you look back on 2020, what are you thinking? What are you telling people as we head into next year? >> Yeah, I think it's very interesting, right? This crises has told us that the world really can change from one day to the next. And this has dramatic and perform the aspects. For example companies all of a sudden, show their revenue line dropping, and they had to do less with data. And some other companies was the reverse, right? All of a sudden, they were online like Instacart, for example, and their business completely changed from one day to the other. So this agility of adjusting the resources that you have to do the task, and need that can change, using solution like Snowflake really helps that. Then we saw both in our customers. Some customers from one day to the next, were growing like big time, because they benefited from COVID, and their business benefited. But others had to drop. And what is nice with cloud, it allows you to adjust compute resources to your business needs, and really address it in house. The other aspect is understanding what happening, right? You need to analyze. We saw all our customers basically, wanted to understand what is the going to be the impact on my business? How can I adapt? How can I adjust? And for that, they needed to analyze data. And of course, a lot of data which are not necessarily data about their business, but also they are from the outside. For example, COVID data, where is the States, what is the impact, geographic impact on COVID, the time. And access to this data is critical. So this is the premise of the data cloud, right? Having one single place, where you can put all the data of the world. So our customer obviously then, started to consume the COVID data from that our data marketplace. And we had delete already thousand customers looking at this data, analyzing these data, and to make good decisions. So this agility and this, adapting from one hour to the next is really critical. And that goes with data, with cloud, with interesting resources, and that doesn't exist on premise. So indeed I think the lesson learned is we are living in a world, which is changing all the time, and we have to understand it. We have to adjust, and that's why cloud some ways is great. >> Excellent thank you. In theCUBE we like to talk about disruption, of course, who doesn't? And also, I mean, you look at AI, and the impact that it's beginning to have, and kind of pre-COVID. You look at some of the industries that were getting disrupted by, everyone talks about digital transformation. And you had on the one end of the spectrum, industries like publishing, which are highly disrupted, or taxis. And you can say, okay, well that's Bits versus Adam, the old Negroponte thing. But then the flip side of, you say look at financial services that hadn't been dramatically disrupted, certainly healthcare, which is ripe for disruption, defense. So there a number of industries that really hadn't leaned into digital transformation, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Not on my watch. There was this complacency. And then of course COVID broke everything. So Florian I wonder if you could comment, what industry or industries do you think are going to be most impacted by data science, and what I call machine intelligence, or AI, in the coming years and decade? >> Honestly, I think it's all of them, or at least most of them, because for some industries, the impact is very visible, because we have talking about brand new products, drones, flying cars, or whatever that are very visible for us. But for others, we are talking about a part from changes in the way you operate as an organization. Even if financial industry itself doesn't seem to be so impacted, when you look at it from the consumer side, or the outside insights in Germany, it's probably impacted just because the way you use data (mumbles) for flexibility you need. Is there kind of the cost gain you can get by leveraging the latest technologies, is just the numbers. And so it's will actually comes from the industry that also. And overall, I think that 2020, is a year where, from the perspective of AI and analytics, we understood this idea of maturity and resilience, maturity meaning that when you've got to crisis you actually need data and AI more than before, you need to actually call the people from data in the room to take better decisions, and look for one and a backlog. And I think that's a very important learning from 2020, that will tell things about 2021. And the resilience, it's like, data analytics today is a function transforming every industries, and is so important that it's something that needs to work. So the infrastructure needs to work, the infrastructure needs to be super resilient, so probably not on prem or not fully on prem, at some point. And the kind of resilience where you need to be able to blend for literally anything, like no hypothesis in terms of BLOs, can be taken for granted. And that's something that is new, and which is just signaling that we are just getting to a next step for data analytics. >> I wonder Benoir if you have anything to add to that. I mean, I often wonder, when are machines going to be able to make better diagnoses than doctors, some people say already. Will the financial services, traditional banks lose control of payment systems? What's going to happen to big retail stores? I mean, maybe bring us home with maybe some of your finals thoughts. >> Yeah, I would say I don't see that as a negative, right? The human being will always be involved very closely, but then the machine, and the data can really help, see correlation in the data that would be impossible for human being alone to discover. So I think it's going to be a compliment not a replacement. And everything that has made us faster, doesn't mean that we have less work to do. It means that we can do more. And we have so much to do, that I will not be worried about the effect of being more efficient, and bare at our work. And indeed, I fundamentally think that data, processing of images, and doing AI on these images, and discovering patterns, and potentially flagging disease way earlier than it was possible. It is going to have a huge impact in health care. And as Florian was saying, every industry is going to be impacted by that technology. So, yeah, I'm very optimistic. >> Great, guys, I wish we had more time. I've got to leave it there, but so thanks so much for coming on theCUBE. It was really a pleasure having you.
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Fernando Alvarez, X by Orange | KubeCon + CloudNativeCon EU 2019
>> Live, from Barcelona, Spain, it's theCUBE, covering KubeCon CloudNativeCon Europe 2019. Brought to you by Red Hat, the CloudNative computing foundation and ecosystem partners. >> Welcome back to theCUBE here in Barcelona, Spain. It's KubeCon CloudNativeCon 2019, I'm Stu Miniman, and my cohost for two days wall-to-wall coverage is Corey Quinn. And we're always thrilled when we get to speak to a user, and not just any user but Fernando Alvarez, who is a cloud architect at X by Orange. Fernando, muchas gracias for joining us, Sir. >> It's a pleasure. >> So Orange, we are familiar and many people are. X by Orange though, maybe you could explain to our audience a little bit what this group is, inside of a large global brand. >> X by Orange is a subsidiary from Orange Spain, and from a Orange telecom group in France, and what we try to do is to reinvent the way that telco companies operates. Going more natural of a way than the traditional way. So it's more or less what we're trying to do, and we started operations in September of last year, just with a different proposal, to see if it could make it viable for the small and medium businesses in Spain. >> Yeah, so digital transformation, you know, many people talk about it, but I've had some really good conversations with customers in the last year or so. Data is so important to businesses these days. Being data-driven, and being software at the core of what you do. So, it's sometimes overstated that every company will be a software company some time in the future. But you have done these transformations before, and that's what brought you into X by Orange. So, tell us a little a bit, your role as a cloud architect, what's your mission and what's your role in the org? >> Well, my mission is to make all the different pieces inside the whole IT stack to work together, especially in a cloud environment. So from the designing from the whole ecosystem that supports the platform, and at the same time supports the whole company as a tech operator, or multiple tech operators. What my role is to make sure that everything fits together. We're trying to accomplish it and we're very happy to have it in a cloud environment, in public cloud and using Kubernetes, as our continuing orchestration engine. >> So, can you lay out are you in one public cloud? Many public clouds, data centers? What is your-- >> We are now in one public cloud in AWS but having this cloud orchestration layer allows us to move to, or to go multicloud or hybrid cloud as soon as we want to do it. But I think that we have to keep it simple from the beginning. Having a tight schedule to start operations is key to (stuttering) have our value proposal into the market and to do so we have to do it in a simple way so going first in one public cloud, going public cloud first because it's not a logical movement in a big company even though we are in Spain now but normally, big enterprises want to do in their own way in a private data center so what we want is to be very fast and to do so the election is clearly logical to go public cloud and to have an orchestration engine like Kubernetes to do everything, no? >> Do you find that making decisions that enable portability in the future if you want to move to alternate clouds or go hybrid, is in any way constraining what you're able to do or the speed you're able to innovate with? >> Yeah, but I think benefits are way better than the drawbacks of that. Normally every single decision you have to make about the architecture of NEPs, one of the key aspects is to see if it involves vendor blocking for any of the components on the stack for example in the public cloud. But I think it's worth the effort because most things that you can design as an engineer or as an architect can be solved not only using (stuttering) A specific solution from a specific cloud provider but using a more generic way. In this way then you can assure that you can move more or less easier to other cloud or to other infrastructure. >> All right, so I guess it begs the question, you said it's AWS today and Kubernetes, it's OpenShift yes? >> Yes. >> That is the, the Kubernetes platform? How did you come about choosing that and you know, obviously Red Hat, one of their strengths is working in lots of different environments so as you go to that hybrided multicloud was that the driver for them? Or were you a Red Hat customer? How did you end up with OpenShift? >> Yeah, that was one of the drivers. And the other was the support for the platform. We were in a really tight schedule and we knew Kubernetes well enough but we weren't sure if our knowledge were enough to be in operations in only nine months. So for that we get Red Hat on board, to have all their knowledge in terms of support and the professional services to help us to define how to do things with their platform on OpenShift and because OpenShift is like Kubernetes distribution we were sure enough that we share the Kubernetes way of doing things so that for us was a logical election. >> What was it that drove your move to the public cloud in the first place? And I guess your entire digital transformation by extension? >> Did you say what, sorry? >> What drove your entire decision to first go to the public cloud and secondly, to go I guess as part of your larger digital transformation? >> The main reason probably was the speed. At the beginning the whole company was started thinking that we were going to build our platform on a private cloud, but once we made the numbers and see that that needed one more year to start operations, with zero value to the customer, the decision was pretty easy. Let's go public cloud and let's think about this, if it really adds value in the future. >> All right. So Fernando if I heard you right you said nine months from you know, >> Yeah. >> when you went to deployment. Big companies aren't necessarily known for their speed of change. >> (laughing) Yeah. >> Talk a little bit about the organizational dynamics. How much internal ramp up there was versus relying on your partners and your vendors to be able to help you meet those schedules. >> The good news is that we had the full Orange support to start a new company and we started as a separate company recently because we wanted to be very fast. So instead of having all the processes from the big company to do something that maybe it will fail, or maybe it will affect the brand, we decided to start a new company from scratch, with Orange in its name because we have all the (stuttering) well-known, All the brand is well-known in the world, but at the same time we wanted to start from scratch. That's why we started with a little people, with most of them were coming from, some were industry instead of the telco industry and we started to build from scratch the whole company and that we were 20 in February 2018 and now we are more than 200 and we started operations in nine months from January 2018. So I think it was a really completely success in terms of speed. >> If you were going to do it all again starting over, what would you do differently? >> That's a really good question. Probably I will put even more effort in transmitting the right culture because when you grow a lot you have to be very carefully in transmitting the right culture to the new commerce. Because it's very easy to let dissipate the culture that you create at the beginning when you are only 10 or 20 people and it's very difficult to maintain it when you are 200. And then if you are 200 with a wrong culture you are transforming yourself in a big company with a small revenue so, that's something that needs to be taken into account. >> Okay, so what's the road map from here? Does the 200 then help infuse into the rest of the company? How do things work going forward? >> Well, what are we doing now is to, we build up a completely new IT stack, that was from the beginning multi tenant to host multiple telco operators and now we are hosting our second telco operator. That's Orange Spain branch for small and medium enterprises, that is now coming to our stack, so this is in our run up for this year, what we are doing is integrating all the stack from Orange Spain to the new one. And at the same time, trying to complete our portfolio with new products. And these new products could be managed and commercialized by X by Orange as a telco provider and also by Orange Spain as another telco provider. >> Right. When people look this show there are so many projects going on and so many different pieces. We sometimes hear "There's a lot of choices, how do I make them?" How did X by Orange, how did you figure out what pieces of the stack was Red Hat, mostly prescriptive as to how you do, or were you choosing the service mesh and all the other various pieces and what can you tell us about your stack? >> Well what I can tell you is that we put a lot of effort on designing the stack by ourselves, not having any turnkey solutions, because we think that this is key for the success of the company. Because normally telco operators put a lot of effort in their core network but they don't put so much effort in the software technology, but now things are changing a lot and we really think that the software layer is as much as important as it was the network. And here is the real perceived value from the customer now resides in the software pack, so we designed each part individually and we selected the right partners for starting the development of each part and then make altogether to work. Instead of going of a full stack provided by a unique company. >> Perfect. As you've gone down this path have you started to look down the serverless environment at all? Or are you strictly in a more container based approach? Let me broaden that a bit. Are you looking into functions as a service and other serverless technologies? Or are you mostly keeping it to more commonplace things that are half a step back? >> Well, in telco industry what is traditionally the vendor, the traditional vendor for the telco industry are the network vendors that are more in their way of virtualization instead of their continuation on not even to mention the deploying serverless. So we are putting a lot of effort on making them to understand and some of them they are understanding it really, really well, that it's key to have their products be able to make an extreme automation. So it's a pity that we don't have enough time (stuttering) to use technologies like serverless. We use them for little operations in our internal stack but we are not at the point of using it in products that we have because what we are doing is trying to, for example, to move the management part of the network services to the containers and now our efforts are in that place. >> And to be very clear, that's absolutely the right answer. You have to meet your customers where they are with things that are appropriate fits for the problems that they have. And average gating for a technology stack because, oh, it seemed like the right answer when I polled a bunch of people on stack overflow or something, is never the right answer to solve those problems, unless "How do I make people "on stack overflow happy?" is the question. Spoiler, you can't. >> Yeah, that's completely true, yeah. >> So Fernando one last question I had for you is here at a big show, what are you looking to get out of the show? What excited you to bring you to the event? And any other things around your experience so far, what you're hoping to do that you could share? >> I think that the most important thing when we're talking about the internal structural transformation for any sized company is the people and the mentality of the people. So I can never say enough times that we really need to invest time with people to embrace the change, to embrace the kind of culture that is behind... The CloudNative mentality because if not, if we don't do so, what we are doing is just transporting our old stack to a new technology without changing anything. So put in that effort, talk with people, make this change happen together with people that is working already in big companies is key for the success of any story. >> All right, well Fernando Alvarez, really appreciate you sharing your story. Congratulations on the progress so far. >> Thank you very much. >> And best of luck in the future. >> Thank you. >> All right. For Corey Quinn, I'm Stu Miniman. We'll be back with lots more. Thank you for watching theCUBE. (upbeat techno music)
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Brought to you by Red Hat, Welcome back to theCUBE here in Barcelona, Spain. to our audience a little bit what this group is, to reinvent the way that telco companies operates. at the core of what you do. and at the same time supports the whole company and to do so we have to do it in a simple way one of the key aspects is to see if it involves and the professional services to help us to define At the beginning the whole company was started So Fernando if I heard you right when you went to deployment. to be able to help you meet those schedules. but at the same time we wanted to start from scratch. the right culture to the new commerce. all the stack from Orange Spain to the new one. and what can you tell us about your stack? and then make altogether to work. Or are you mostly keeping it to more of the network services to the containers is never the right answer to solve those problems, and the mentality of the people. really appreciate you sharing your story. Thank you for watching theCUBE.
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Billie Whitehouse, Wearable X | theCUBE NYC 2018
>> Live from New York, it's theCUBE. Covering theCUBE New York City 2018. Brought to you by Silicon Angle Media and its ecosystem partners. >> Hi, welcome back. I'm your host Sonia Tagare with my cohost Dave Vellante, and we're here at theCUBE NYC covering everything big data, AI, and the cloud. And this week is also New York Fashion Week, and with us today we have a guest who intersects both of those technologies, so Billie Whitehouse, CEO of Wearable X, thank you so much for being on. >> It's a pleasure, thank you for having me. >> Great to see you. >> Thank you. >> So your company Wearable X, which intersects fashion and technology, tell us more about that. >> So Wearable X started five years ago. And we started by building clothes that had integrated haptic feedback, which is just vibrational feedback on the body. And we really believe that we can empower clothing with technology to do far more than it ever has for you before, and to really give you control back of your life. >> That's amazing. So can you tell us more about the haptic, how it works and what the technology is about? >> Absolutely. So the haptics are integrated with accelerometers and they're paired through conductive pathways around the body, and specifically this is built for yoga in a line called NadiX. And Nadi is spelled N-A-D-I. I know that I have a funny accent so sometimes it helps to spell things out. They connect and understand your body orientation and then from understanding your body orientation we pair that back with your smartphone and then the app guides you with audio, how to move into each yoga pose, step by step. And at the end we ask you to address whether you made it into the pose or not by reading the accelerometer values, and then we give you vibrational feedback where to focus. >> And the accelerometer is what exactly? It's just a tiny device... Does it protrude or is it just...? >> I mean it's as invisibly integrated as we can get it so that we can make it washable and tumble-dryable. >> So I know I rented a car recently, big SUV with the family and when I started backing up or when I get close to another car, it started vibrating. So is it that kind of sensation? It was sort of a weird warning but then after a while I got used to it. It was kind of training me. Is that-- >> Precisely. >> Sort of the same thing? And it's just the pants or the leggings, or is it the top as well? >> So it's built in through the ankles, behind the knees and in the hip of the yoga pants, and then we will release upper body work as well. >> Alright, so let's double click on this. So if I'm in a crescent pose and I'm leaning too far forward, will it sort of correct me or hit me in the calf and say, "Put your heel down," or how would that work? >> Exactly. So the audio instructions will give you exactly the kind of instructions you would get if you were in a class. And then similarly to what you would get if you had a personal instructor, the vibrations will show you where to isolate and where to ground down, or where to lift up, or where to rotate, and then at the end of the pose, the accelerometer values are read and we understand whether you made it into the pose or whether you didn't quite get there, and whether you're overextended or not. And then we ask you to either go back and work on the pose again or move forward and move on to the next pose. >> That is amazing. I usually have to ask my daughters or my wife, "Is this right?" And then they'll just shake their heads. Now what do you do with the data? Do you collect the data and can I review and improve, feed it back? How does that all work? >> So the base level membership, which is free, is you don't see your progress tracking as yet. But we're about to release our membership, where you pay $10 a month, and with that you get progress tracking as a customer. Us on the back end, we can see how often people make it into particular poses. We can also see which ones they don't make it into very well, but we don't necessarily share that. >> And so presumably it tracks other things besides, like frequency, duration of the yoga? >> Exactly. Minutes of yoga, precisely right. >> Different body parts, or not necessarily? >> So the accelerometers are just giving us an individual value, and then we determine what pose you're in, so I don't know what you mean by different body parts? >> In other words, which parts of my body I'm working out or maybe need to work on? >> Oh precisely. Yeah if you're overextending a particular knee or an ankle, we can eventually tell you that very detailed. >> And how long have you been doing this? >> It's five years. >> Okay. And so what have you learned so far from all this data that you've collected? >> Well I mean, I'm going to start from a human learning first, and then I'll give you the data learnings. The human learning for me is equally as interesting. The language on the body and how people respond to vibration was learning number one. And we even did tests many years ago with a particular product, an upper body product, with kids, so aged between eight and 13, and I played a game of memory with them to see if they could learn and understand different vibrational sequences and what they meant. And it was astounding. They would get it every single time without fail. They would understand what the vibrations meant and they would remember it. For us, we are then trying to replicate that for yoga. And that has been a really interesting learning, to see how people need and understand and want to have audio cues with their vibrational feedback. From a data perspective, the biggest learning for us is that people are actually spending between 13 to 18 minutes inside the app. So they don't necessarily want an hour and a half class, which is what we originally thought. They want short, quick, easy-to-digest kind of flows. And that for me was very much a learning. They're also using it at really interesting times of the day. So it's before seven AM, in the middle of the day between 11 and three, and then after nine PM. And that just so happens to be when studios are shut. So it makes sense that they want to use something that's quick and easy for them, whether it's early morning when they have a big, full day, or late night 'cause they need to relax. >> Sounds like such a great social impact. Can you tell us more about why you decided to make this? >> Yeah, for me there was a personal problem. I was paying an extraordinary amount to go to classes, I was often in a class with another 50 people and not really getting any of the attention that I guess I thought I deserved, so I was frustrated. I was frustrated that I was paying so much money to go into class and not getting the attention, had been working with haptic feedback for quite some time at that point, realized that there was this language on the body that was being really underutilized, and then had this opportunity to start looking at how we could do it for yoga. Don't get me wrong, I had several engineers tell me this wasn't possible about three and a half years ago, and look at us now, we're shipping product and we're in retail and it's all working, but it took some time. >> So you're not an engineer, I take it? >> I am not an engineer. >> You certainly don't dress like an engineer, but you never know. What's your background? >> My background is in design. And I truly think that design, for us, has always come first. And I hope that it continues to be that way. I believe that designers have an ability to solve problems in, dare I say, in a horizontal way. We can understand pockets of things that are going on, whether it's the problem, whether it's ways to solve the solutions, and we can combine the two. It's not just about individual problem solving on a minute level; it's very much a macro view. And I hope that more and more designers go into this space because I truly believe that they have an ability to solve really interesting problems by asking empathetic questions. >> And how does the tech work? I mean, what do you need besides the clothing and the accelerometers to make this work? >> So we have a little device called the pulse. And the pulse has our Bluetooth module and our battery and our PCB, and that clips just behind the left knee. Now that's also the one spot on the body that during yoga doesn't get in the way, and we have tested that on every body shape you can imagine across five different continents, because we wanted to make sure that the algorithms that we built to understand the poses were going to be fair for everybody. So in doing that, that little pulse, you un-clip when you want to wash and dry. >> And is that connected to the app as well? >> Exactly, that's connected via Bluetooth to your app. >> That's great. So you have all your data in your hand and you know exactly what kind of yoga poses you're doing, where you need to strengthen up. >> Exactly. >> That's great. >> And is it a full program? In other words, are there different yoga programs I can do, or am I on my own for that? How does that work? >> So with the base level membership, you can choose different yoga instructors around New York that you'd like to follow, and then you can get progress tracking, you can get recommendations, and they are timed between that 10 to 20 minutes. If you want to pay the slightly more premium membership, you can actually build your own playlists, and that's something that our customers have said they're really interested in. It means that you can build a sequence of poses that is really defined by you, that is good for your body. So that means instead of going to a class where you end up getting a terrible teacher, or music that you don't like, you can actually build your own class and then share that with your friends as well. >> Is it a Spotify-like model, where the teachers get compensation at the back end, or how does that all work? >> Exactly. Yes, precisely. >> And what do you charge for this? >> So the pants are $250, and then the base level membership is $10 a month, and then the slightly more premium is $30 a month. >> If you think about how much you would spend for a yoga class, that actually seems like a pretty good deal. >> And trust me, when you start calculating, when you go to yoga at least once a week, and it's $20 a week and then you're like, "Oh, and I went every week this year," you realize that it racks up very quickly. >> Well plus the convenience of doing it... I love having... To be able to do it at six a.m. without having to go to a class, especially where I live in Boston, when it's cold in the winter, you don't even want to go out. (all laughing) >> So what do you think the future of the wearable industry is? >> This is a space that I get really excited about. I believe in a version of the future, which has been titled "enchanted objects." And the reason I sort of put it in inverted commas is I think that often has sometimes a magical element to it that people think is a little too far forward. But for me, I really believe that this is possible. So not only do I believe that we will have our own body area network, which I like to call an app store for the body, but I believe every object will have this. And there was a beautiful Wired article last month that actually described why the Japanese culture are adopting robotics and automation in a way that western culture often isn't. And that is because the Shinto religion is the predominant religion in Japan, and they believe that every object has a soul. And if in believing that, you're designing for that object to have a soul and a personality and an ecosystem, and dare we call it, a body area network for each object, then that area network can interface with yours or mine or whoever's, and you can create this really interesting communication that is enchanted and delightful, and not about domination. It's not about screens taking over the world and being in charge of you, and us being dominated by them, as often we see in culture now. It's about having this really beautiful interface between technology and objects. And I really believe that's going to be the version of the future. >> And looking good while you do it. >> Precisely. >> You've got visions to take this beyond yoga, is that right? Other sports, perhaps cycling and swimming and skiing, I can think of so many examples. >> Exactly. Well for us, we're focused on yoga to start with. And certainly areas that I would say are in the gaps. I like to think of our products as being very touch-focused and staying in areas of athleisure or sports that are around touch. So where you would get a natural adjustment from a coach or a teacher, our products can naturally fit into that space. So whether it is squats or whether it is Pilates, they're certainly in our pipeline. But in the immediate future, we're certainly looking at the upper body and in meditation, and how we can remind you to roll your shoulders back and down, and everyone sits up straight. And then longer term, we're looking at how we can move this into physiotherapy, and so as you mentioned, you can enter in that you have a left knee injury, and we'll be able to adjust what you should be working on because of that. >> Is there a possibility of a breathing component, or is that perhaps there today? Such an important part of yoga is breathing. >> 100%. That is very much part of what we're working on. I would say more silently, but very much will launch soon. >> Well it sounds like it's going to have such a positive impact on so many people and that it's going to be in so many different industries. >> I hope so. Yeah that's the plan. >> Well Billie Whitehouse, thank you so much for being on theCUBE, and Dave, thank you. We're here at theCUBE NYC, and stay tuned, don't go anywhere, we'll be back. (inquisitive electronic music)
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Breaking Analysis: Cloud players sound a cautious tone for 2023
>> From the Cube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from the Cube and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The unraveling of market enthusiasm continued in Q4 of 2022 with the earnings reports from the US hyperscalers, the big three now all in. As we said earlier this year, even the cloud is an immune from the macro headwinds and the cracks in the armor that we saw from the data that we shared last summer, they're playing out into 2023. For the most part actuals are disappointing beyond expectations including our own. It turns out that our estimates for the big three hyperscaler's revenue missed by 1.2 billion or 2.7% lower than we had forecast from even our most recent November estimates. And we expect continued decelerating growth rates for the hyperscalers through the summer of 2023 and we don't think that's going to abate until comparisons get easier. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we share our view of what's happening in cloud markets not just for the hyperscalers but other firms that have hitched a ride on the cloud. And we'll share new ETR data that shows why these trends are playing out tactics that customers are employing to deal with their cost challenges and how long the pain is likely to last. You know, riding the cloud wave, it's a two-edged sword. Let's look at the players that have gone all in on or are exposed to both the positive and negative trends of cloud. Look the cloud has been a huge tailwind for so many companies like Snowflake and Databricks, Workday, Salesforce, Mongo's move with Atlas, Red Hats Cloud strategy with OpenShift and so forth. And you know, the flip side is because cloud is elastic what comes up can also go down very easily. Here's an XY graphic from ETR that shows spending momentum or net score on the vertical axis and market presence in the dataset on the horizontal axis provision or called overlap. This is data from the January 2023 survey and that the red dotted lines show the positions of several companies that we've highlighted going back to January 2021. So let's unpack this for a bit starting with the big three hyperscalers. The first point is AWS and Azure continue to solidify their moat relative to Google Cloud platform. And we're going to get into this in a moment, but Azure and AWS revenues are five to six times that of GCP for IaaS. And at those deltas, Google should be gaining ground much faster than the big two. The second point on Google is notice the red line on GCP relative to its starting point. While it appears to be gaining ground on the horizontal axis, its net score is now below that of AWS and Azure in the survey. So despite its significantly smaller size it's just not keeping pace with the leaders in terms of market momentum. Now looking at AWS and Microsoft, what we see is basically AWS is holding serve. As we know both Google and Microsoft benefit from including SaaS in their cloud numbers. So the fact that AWS hasn't seen a huge downward momentum relative to a January 2021 position is one positive in the data. And both companies are well above that magic 40% line on the Y-axis, anything above 40% we consider to be highly elevated. But the fact remains that they're down as are most of the names on this chart. So let's take a closer look. I want to start with Snowflake and Databricks. Snowflake, as we reported from several quarters back came down to Earth, it was up in the 80% range in the Y-axis here. And it's still highly elevated in the 60% range and it continues to move to the right, which is positive but as we'll address in a moment it's customers can dial down consumption just as in any cloud. Now, Databricks is really interesting. It's not a public company, it never made it to IPO during the sort of tech bubble. So we don't have the same level of transparency that we do with other companies that did make it through. But look at how much more prominent it is on the X-axis relative to January 2021. And it's net score is basically held up over that period of time. So that's a real positive for Databricks. Next, look at Workday and Salesforce. They've held up relatively well, both inching to the right and generally holding their net scores. Same from Mongo, which is the brown dot above its name that says Elastic, it says a little gets a little crowded which Elastic's actually the blue dot above it. But generally, SaaS is harder to dial down, Workday, Salesforce, Oracles, SaaS and others. So it's harder to dial down because commitments have been made in advance, they're kind of locked in. Now, one of the discussions from last summer was as Mongo, less discretionary than analytics i.e. Snowflake. And it's an interesting debate but maybe Snowflake customers, you know, they're also generally committed to a dollar amount. So over time the spending is going to be there. But in the short term, yeah maybe Snowflake customers can dial down. Now that highlighted dotted red line, that bolded one is Datadog and you can see it's made major strides on the X-axis but its net score has decelerated quite dramatically. Openshift's momentum in the survey has dropped although IBM just announced that OpenShift has a a billion dollar ARR and I suspect what's happening there is IBM consulting is bundling OpenShift into its modernization projects. It's got a, that sort of captive base if you will. And as such it's probably not as top of mind to the respondents but I'll bet you the developers are certainly aware of it. Now the other really notable call out here is CloudFlare, We've reported on them earlier. Cloudflare's net score has held up really well since January of 2021. It really hasn't seen the downdraft of some of these others, but it's making major major moves to the right gaining market presence. We really like how CloudFlare is performing. And the last comment is on Oracle which as you can see, despite its much, much lower net score continues to gain ground in the market and thrive from a profitability standpoint. But the data pretty clearly shows that there's a downdraft in the market. Okay, so what's happening here? Let's dig deeper into this data. Here's a graphic from the most recent ETR drill down asking customers that said they were going to cut spending what technique they're using to do so. Now, as we've previously reported, consolidating redundant vendors is by far the most cited approach but there's two key points we want to make here. One is reducing excess cloud resources. As you can see in the bars is the second most cited technique and it's up from the previous polling period. The second we're not showing, you know directly but we've got some red call outs there. Reducing cloud costs jumps to 29% and 28% respectively in financial services and tech telco. And it's much closer to second. It's basically neck and neck with consolidating redundant vendors in those two industries. So they're being really aggressive about optimizing cloud cost. Okay, so as we said, cloud is great 'cause you can dial it up but it's just as easy to dial down. We've identified six factors that customers tell us are affecting their cloud consumption and there are probably more, if you got more we'd love to hear them but these are the ones that are fairly prominent that have hit our radar. First, rising mortgage rates mean banks are processing fewer loans means less cloud. The crypto crash means less trading activity and that means less cloud resources. Third lower ad spend has led companies to reduce not only you know, their ad buying but also their frequency of running their analytics and their calculations. And they're also often using less data, maybe compressing the timeframe of the corpus down to a shorter time period. Also very prominent is down to the bottom left, using lower cost compute instances. For example, Graviton from AWS or AMD chips and tiering storage to cheaper S3 or deep archived tiers. And finally, optimizing based on better pricing plans. So customers are moving from, you know, smaller companies in particular moving maybe from on demand or other larger companies that are experimenting using on demand or they're moving to spot pricing or reserved instances or optimized savings plans. That all lowers cost and that means less cloud resource consumption and less cloud revenue. Now in the days when everything was on prem CFOs, what would they do? They would freeze CapEx and IT Pros would have to try to do more with less and often that meant a lot of manual tasks. With the cloud it's much easier to move things around. It still takes some thinking and some effort but it's dramatically simpler to do so. So you can get those savings a lot faster. Now of course the other huge factor is you can cut or you can freeze. And this graphic shows data from a recent ETR survey with 159 respondents and you can see the meaningful uptick in hiring freezes, freezing new IT deployments and layoffs. And as we've been reporting, this has been trending up since earlier last year. And note the call out, this is especially prominent in retail sectors, all three of these techniques jump up in retail and that's a bit of a concern because oftentimes consumer spending helps the economy make a softer landing out of a pullback. But this is a potential canary in the coal mine. If retail firms are pulling back it's because consumers aren't spending as much. And so we're keeping a close eye on that. So let's boil this down to the market data and what this all means. So in this graphic we show our estimates for Q4 IaaS revenues compared to the "actual" IaaS revenues. And we say quote because AWS is the only one that reports, you know clean revenue and IaaS, Azure and GCP don't report actuals. Why would they? Because it would make them look even, you know smaller relative to AWS. Rather, they bury the figures in overall cloud which includes their, you know G-Suite for Google and all the Microsoft SaaS. And then they give us little tidbits about in Microsoft's case, Azure, they give growth rates. Google gives kind of relative growth of GCP. So, and we use survey data and you know, other data to try to really pinpoint and we've been covering this for, I don't know, five or six years ever since the cloud really became a thing. But looking at the data, we had AWS growing at 25% this quarter and it came in at 20%. So a significant decline relative to our expectations. AWS announced that it exited December, actually, sorry it's January data showed about a 15% mid-teens growth rate. So that's, you know, something we're watching. Azure was two points off our forecast coming in at 38% growth. It said it exited December in the 35% growth range and it said that it's expecting five points of deceleration off of that. So think 30% for Azure. GCP came in three points off our expectation coming in 35% and Alibaba has yet to report but we've shaved a bid off that forecast based on some survey data and you know what maybe 9% is even still not enough. Now for the year, the big four hyperscalers generated almost 160 billion of revenue, but that was 7 billion lower than what what we expected coming into 2022. For 2023, we're expecting 21% growth for a total of 193.3 billion. And while it's, you know, lower, you know, significantly lower than historical expectations it's still four to five times the overall spending forecast that we just shared with you in our predictions post of between 4 and 5% for the overall market. We think AWS is going to come in in around 93 billion this year with Azure closing in at over 71 billion. This is, again, we're talking IaaS here. Now, despite Amazon focusing investors on the fact that AWS's absolute dollar growth is still larger than its competitors. By our estimates Azure will come in at more than 75% of AWS's forecasted revenue. That's a significant milestone. AWS is operating margins by the way declined significantly this past quarter, dropping from 30% of revenue to 24%, 30% the year earlier to 24%. Now that's still extremely healthy and we've seen wild fluctuations like this before so I don't get too freaked out about that. But I'll say this, Microsoft has a marginal cost advantage relative to AWS because one, it has a captive cloud on which to run its massive software estate. So it can just throw software at its own cloud and two software marginal costs. Marginal economics despite AWS's awesomeness in high degrees of automation, software is just a better business. Now the upshot for AWS is the ecosystem. AWS is essentially in our view positioning very smartly as a platform for data partners like Snowflake and Databricks, security partners like CrowdStrike and Okta and Palo Alto and many others and SaaS companies. You know, Microsoft is more competitive even though AWS does have competitive products. Now of course Amazon's competitive to retail companies so that's another factor but generally speaking for tech players, Amazon is a really thriving ecosystem that is a secret weapon in our view. AWS happy to spin the meter with its partners even though it sells competitive products, you know, more so in our view than other cloud players. Microsoft, of course is, don't forget is hyping now, we're hearing a lot OpenAI and ChatGPT we reported last week in our predictions post. How OpenAI is shot up in terms of market sentiment in ETR's emerging technology company surveys and people are moving to Azure to get OpenAI and get ChatGPT that is a an interesting lever. Amazon in our view has to have a response. They have lots of AI and they're going to have to make some moves there. Meanwhile, Google is emphasizing itself as an AI first company. In fact, Google spent at least five minutes of continuous dialogue, nonstop on its AI chops during its latest earnings call. So that's an area that we're watching very closely as the buzz around large language models continues. All right, let's wrap up with some assumptions for 2023. We think SaaS players are going to continue to be sticky. They're going to be somewhat insulated from all these downdrafts because they're so tied in and customers, you know they make the commitment up front, you've got the lock in. Now having said that, we do expect some backlash over time on the onerous and generally customer unfriendly pricing models of most large SaaS companies. But that's going to play out over a longer period of time. Now for cloud generally and the hyperscalers specifically we do expect accelerating growth rates into Q3 but the amplitude of the demand swings from this rubber band economy, we expect to continue to compress and become more predictable throughout the year. Estimates are coming down, CEOs we think are going to be more cautious when the market snaps back more cautious about hiring and spending and as such a perhaps we expect a more orderly return to growth which we think will slightly accelerate in Q4 as comps get easier. Now of course the big risk to these scenarios is of course the economy, the FED, consumer spending, inflation, supply chain, energy prices, wars, geopolitics, China relations, you know, all the usual stuff. But as always with our partners at ETR and the Cube community, we're here for you. We have the data and we'll be the first to report when we see a change at the margin. Okay, that's a wrap for today. I want to thank Alex Morrison who's on production and manages the podcast, Ken Schiffman as well out of our Boston studio getting this up on LinkedIn Live. Thank you for that. Kristen Martin also and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our Editor-in-Chief over at siliconangle.com. He does some great editing for us. Thank you all. Remember all these episodes are available as podcast. Wherever you listen, just search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com, at siliconangle.com where you can see all the data and you want to get in touch. Just all you can do is email me david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante if you if you got something interesting, I'll respond. If you don't, it's either 'cause I'm swamped or it's just not tickling me. You can comment on our LinkedIn post as well. And please check out ETR.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (gentle upbeat music)
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Breaking Analysis: re:Invent 2022 marks the next chapter in data & cloud
from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and ETR this is breaking analysis with Dave vellante the ascendancy of AWS under the leadership of Andy jassy was marked by a tsunami of data and corresponding cloud services to leverage that data now those Services they mainly came in the form of Primitives I.E basic building blocks that were used by developers to create more sophisticated capabilities AWS in the 2020s being led by CEO Adam solipski will be marked by four high-level Trends in our opinion one A Rush of data that will dwarf anything we've previously seen two a doubling or even tripling down on the basic elements of cloud compute storage database security Etc three a greater emphasis on end-to-end integration of AWS services to simplify and accelerate customer adoption of cloud and four significantly deeper business integration of cloud Beyond it as an underlying element of organizational operations hello and welcome to this week's wikibon Cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis we extract and analyze nuggets from John furrier's annual sit-down with the CEO of AWS we'll share data from ETR and other sources to set the context for the market and competition in cloud and we'll give you our glimpse of what to expect at re invent in 2022. now before we get into the core of our analysis Alibaba has announced earnings they always announced after the big three you know a month later and we've updated our Q3 slash November hyperscale Computing forecast for the year as seen here and we're going to spend a lot of time on this as most of you have seen the bulk of it already but suffice to say alibaba's cloud business is hitting that same macro Trend that we're seeing across the board but a more substantial slowdown than we expected and more substantial than its peers they're facing China headwinds they've been restructuring its Cloud business and it's led to significantly slower growth uh in in the you know low double digits as opposed to where we had it at 15 this puts our year-end estimates for 2022 Revenue at 161 billion still a healthy 34 growth with AWS surpassing 80 billion in 2022 Revenue now on a related note one of the big themes in Cloud that we've been reporting on is how customers are optimizing their Cloud spend it's a technique that they use and when the economy looks a little shaky and here's a graphic that we pulled from aws's website which shows the various pricing plans at a high level as you know they're much more granular than that and more sophisticated but Simplicity we'll just keep it here basically there are four levels first one here is on demand I.E pay by the drink now we're going to jump down to what we've labeled as number two spot instances that's like the right place at the right time I can use that extra capacity in the moment the third is reserved instances or RIS where I pay up front to get a discount and the fourth is sort of optimized savings plans where customers commit to a one or three year term and for a better price now you'll notice we labeled the choices in a different order than AWS presented them on its website and that's because we believe that the order that we chose is the natural progression for customers this started on demand they maybe experiment with spot instances they move to reserve instances when the cloud bill becomes too onerous and if you're large enough you lock in for one or three years okay the interesting thing is the order in which AWS presents them we believe that on-demand accounts for the majority of AWS customer spending now if you think about it those on-demand customers they're also at risk customers yeah sure there's some switching costs like egress and learning curve but many customers they have multiple clouds and they've got experience and so they're kind of already up to a learning curve and if you're not married to AWS with a longer term commitment there's less friction to switch now AWS here presents the most attractive plan from a financial perspective second after on demand and it's also the plan that makes the greatest commitment from a lock-in standpoint now In fairness to AWS it's also true that there is a trend towards subscription-based pricing and we have some data on that this chart is from an ETR drill down survey the end is 300. pay attention to the bars on the right the left side is sort of busy but the pink is subscription and you can see the trend upward the light blue is consumption based or on demand based pricing and you can see there's a steady Trend toward subscription now we'll dig into this in a later episode of Breaking analysis but we'll share with you a little some tidbits with the data that ETR provides you can select which segment is and pass or you can go up the stack Etc but so when you choose is and paths 44 of customers either prefer or are required to use on-demand pricing whereas around 40 percent of customers say they either prefer or are required to use subscription pricing again that's for is so now the further mu you move up the stack the more prominent subscription pricing becomes often with sixty percent or more for the software-based offerings that require or prefer subscription and interestingly cyber security tracks along with software at around 60 percent that that prefer subscription it's likely because as with software you're not shutting down your cyber protection on demand all right let's get into the expectations for reinvent and we're going to start with an observation in data in this 2018 book seeing digital author David michella made the point that whereas most companies apply data on the periphery of their business kind of as an add-on function successful data companies like Google and Amazon and Facebook have placed data at the core of their operations they've operationalized data and they apply machine intelligence to that foundational element why is this the fact is it's not easy to do what the internet Giants have done very very sophisticated engineering and and and cultural discipline and this brings us to reinvent 2022 in the future of cloud machine learning and AI will increasingly be infused into applications we believe the data stack and the application stack are coming together as organizations build data apps and data products data expertise is moving from the domain of Highly specialized individuals to Everyday business people and we are just at the cusp of this trend this will in our view be a massive theme of not only re invent 22 but of cloud in the 2020s the vision of data mesh We Believe jamachtagani's principles will be realized in this decade now what we'd like to do now is share with you a glimpse of the thinking of Adam solipsky from his sit down with John Furrier each year John has a one-on-one conversation with the CEO of AWS AWS he's been doing this for years and the outcome is a better understanding of the directional thinking of the leader of the number one Cloud platform so we're now going to share some direct quotes I'm going to run through them with some commentary and then bring in some ETR data to analyze the market implications here we go this is from solipsky quote I.T in general and data are moving from departments into becoming intrinsic parts of how businesses function okay we're talking here about deeper business integration let's go on to the next one quote in time we'll stop talking about people who have the word analyst we inserted data he meant data data analyst in their title rather will have hundreds of millions of people who analyze data as part of their day-to-day job most of whom will not have the word analyst anywhere in their title we're talking about graphic designers and pizza shop owners and product managers and data scientists as well he threw that in I'm going to come back to that very interesting so he's talking about here about democratizing data operationalizing data next quote customers need to be able to take an end-to-end integrated view of their entire data Journey from ingestion to storage to harmonizing the data to being able to query it doing business Intelligence and human-based Analysis and being able to collaborate and share data and we've been putting together we being Amazon together a broad Suite of tools from database to analytics to business intelligence to help customers with that and this last statement it's true Amazon has a lot of tools and you know they're beginning to become more and more integrated but again under jassy there was not a lot of emphasis on that end-to-end integrated view we believe it's clear from these statements that solipsky's customer interactions are leading him to underscore that the time has come for this capability okay continuing quote if you have data in one place you shouldn't have to move it every time you want to analyze that data couldn't agree more it would be much better if you could leave that data in place avoid all the ETL which has become a nasty three-letter word more and more we're building capabilities where you can query that data in place end quote okay this we see a lot in the marketplace Oracle with mySQL Heatwave the entire Trend toward converge database snowflake [Â __Â ] extending their platforms into transaction and analytics respectively and so forth a lot of the partners are are doing things as well in that vein let's go into the next quote the other phenomenon is infusing machine learning into all those capabilities yes the comments from the michelleographic come into play here infusing Ai and machine intelligence everywhere next one quote it's not a data Cloud it's not a separate Cloud it's a series of broad but integrated capabilities to help you manage the end-to-end life cycle of your data there you go we AWS are the cloud we're going to come back to that in a moment as well next set of comments around data very interesting here quote data governance is a huge issue really what customers need is to find the right balance of their organization between access to data and control and if you provide too much access then you're nervous that your data is going to end up in places that it shouldn't shouldn't be viewed by people who shouldn't be viewing it and you feel like you lack security around that data and by the way what happens then is people overreact and they lock it down so that almost nobody can see it it's those handcuffs there's data and asset are reliability we've talked about that for years okay very well put by solipsky but this is a gap in our in our view within AWS today and we're we're hoping that they close it at reinvent it's not easy to share data in a safe way within AWS today outside of your organization so we're going to look for that at re invent 2022. now all this leads to the following statement by solipsky quote data clean room is a really interesting area and I think there's a lot of different Industries in which clean rooms are applicable I think that clean rooms are an interesting way of enabling multiple parties to share and collaborate on the data while completely respecting each party's rights and their privacy mandate okay again this is a gap currently within AWS today in our view and we know snowflake is well down this path and databricks with Delta sharing is also on this curve so AWS has to address this and demonstrate this end-to-end data integration and the ability to safely share data in our view now let's bring in some ETR spending data to put some context around these comments with reference points in the form of AWS itself and its competitors and partners here's a chart from ETR that shows Net score or spending momentum on the x-axis an overlap or pervasiveness in the survey um sorry let me go back up the net scores on the y-axis and overlap or pervasiveness in the survey is on the x-axis so spending momentum by pervasiveness okay or should have share within the data set the table that's inserted there with the Reds and the greens that informs us to how the dots are positioned so it's Net score and then the shared ends are how the plots are determined now we've filtered the data on the three big data segments analytics database and machine learning slash Ai and we've only selected one company with fewer than 100 ends in the survey and that's databricks you'll see why in a moment the red dotted line indicates highly elevated customer spend at 40 percent now as usual snowflake outperforms all players on the y-axis with a Net score of 63 percent off the charts all three big U.S cloud players are above that line with Microsoft and AWS dominating the x-axis so very impressive that they have such spending momentum and they're so large and you see a number of other emerging data players like rafana and datadog mongodbs there in the mix and then more established players data players like Splunk and Tableau now you got Cisco who's gonna you know it's a it's a it's a adjacent to their core networking business but they're definitely into you know the analytics business then the really established players in data like Informatica IBM and Oracle all with strong presence but you'll notice in the red from the momentum standpoint now what you're going to see in a moment is we put red highlights around databricks Snowflake and AWS why let's bring that back up and we'll explain so there's no way let's bring that back up Alex if you would there's no way AWS is going to hit the brakes on innovating at the base service level what we call Primitives earlier solipsky told Furrier as much in their sit down that AWS will serve the technical user and data science Community the traditional domain of data bricks and at the same time address the end-to-end integration data sharing and business line requirements that snowflake is positioned to serve now people often ask Snowflake and databricks how will you compete with the likes of AWS and we know the answer focus on data exclusively they have their multi-cloud plays perhaps the more interesting question is how will AWS compete with the likes of Specialists like Snowflake and data bricks and the answer is depicted here in this chart AWS is going to serve both the technical and developer communities and the data science audience and through end-to-end Integrations and future services that simplify the data Journey they're going to serve the business lines as well but the Nuance is in all the other dots in the hundreds or hundreds of thousands that are not shown here and that's the AWS ecosystem you can see AWS has earned the status of the number one Cloud platform that everyone wants to partner with as they say it has over a hundred thousand partners and that ecosystem combined with these capabilities that we're discussing well perhaps behind in areas like data sharing and integrated governance can wildly succeed by offering the capabilities and leveraging its ecosystem now for their part the snowflakes of the world have to stay focused on the mission build the best products possible and develop their own ecosystems to compete and attract the Mind share of both developers and business users and that's why it's so interesting to hear solipski basically say it's not a separate Cloud it's a set of integrated Services well snowflake is in our view building a super cloud on top of AWS Azure and Google when great products meet great sales and marketing good things can happen so this will be really fun to watch what AWS announces in this area at re invent all right one other topic that solipsky talked about was the correlation between serverless and container adoption and you know I don't know if this gets into there certainly their hybrid place maybe it starts to get into their multi-cloud we'll see but we have some data on this so again we're talking about the correlation between serverless and container adoption but before we get into that let's go back to 2017 and listen to what Andy jassy said on the cube about serverless play the clip very very earliest days of AWS Jeff used to say a lot if I were starting Amazon today I'd have built it on top of AWS we didn't have all the capability and all the functionality at that very moment but he knew what was coming and he saw what people were still able to accomplish even with where the services were at that point I think the same thing is true here with Lambda which is I think if Amazon were starting today it's a given they would build it on the cloud and I think we with a lot of the applications that comprise Amazon's consumer business we would build those on on our serverless capabilities now we still have plenty of capabilities and features and functionality we need to add to to Lambda and our various serverless services so that may not be true from the get-go right now but I think if you look at the hundreds of thousands of customers who are building on top of Lambda and lots of real applications you know finra has built a good chunk of their market watch application on top of Lambda and Thompson Reuters has built you know one of their key analytics apps like people are building real serious things on top of Lambda and the pace of iteration you'll see there will increase as well and I really believe that to be true over the next year or two so years ago when Jesse gave a road map that serverless was going to be a key developer platform going forward and so lipsky referenced the correlation between serverless and containers in the Furrier sit down so we wanted to test that within the ETR data set now here's a screen grab of The View across 1300 respondents from the October ETR survey and what we've done here is we've isolated on the cloud computing segment okay so you can see right there cloud computing segment now we've taken the functions from Google AWS Lambda and Microsoft Azure functions all the serverless offerings and we've got Net score on the vertical axis we've got presence in the data set oh by the way 440 by the way is highly elevated remember that and then we've got on the horizontal axis we have the presence in the data center overlap okay that's relative to each other so remember 40 all these guys are above that 40 mark okay so you see that now what we're going to do this is just for serverless and what we're going to do is we're going to turn on containers to see the correlation and see what happens so watch what happens when we click on container boom everything moves to the right you can see all three move to the right Google drops a little bit but all the others now the the filtered end drops as well so you don't have as many people that are aggressively leaning into both but all three move to the right so watch again containers off and then containers on containers off containers on so you can see a really major correlation between containers and serverless okay so to get a better understanding of what that means I call my friend and former Cube co-host Stu miniman what he said was people generally used to think of VMS containers and serverless as distinctly different architectures but the lines are beginning to blur serverless makes things simpler for developers who don't want to worry about underlying infrastructure as solipsky and the data from ETR indicate serverless and containers are coming together but as Stu and I discussed there's a spectrum where on the left you have kind of native Cloud VMS in the middle you got AWS fargate and in the rightmost anchor is Lambda AWS Lambda now traditionally in the cloud if you wanted to use containers developers would have to build a container image they have to select and deploy the ec2 images that they or instances that they wanted to use they have to allocate a certain amount of memory and then fence off the apps in a virtual machine and then run the ec2 instances against the apps and then pay for all those ec2 resources now with AWS fargate you can run containerized apps with less infrastructure management but you still have some you know things that you can you can you can do with the with the infrastructure so with fargate what you do is you'd build the container images then you'd allocate your memory and compute resources then run the app and pay for the resources only when they're used so fargate lets you control the runtime environment while at the same time simplifying the infrastructure management you gotta you don't have to worry about isolating the app and other stuff like choosing server types and patching AWS does all that for you then there's Lambda with Lambda you don't have to worry about any of the underlying server infrastructure you're just running code AS functions so the developer spends their time worrying about the applications and the functions that you're calling the point is there's a movement and we saw in the data towards simplifying the development environment and allowing the cloud vendor AWS in this case to do more of the underlying management now some folks will still want to turn knobs and dials but increasingly we're going to see more higher level service adoption now re invent is always a fire hose of content so let's do a rapid rundown of what to expect we talked about operate optimizing data and the organization we talked about Cloud optimization there'll be a lot of talk on the show floor about best practices and customer sharing data solipsky is leading AWS into the next phase of growth and that means moving beyond I.T transformation into deeper business integration and organizational transformation not just digital transformation organizational transformation so he's leading a multi-vector strategy serving the traditional peeps who want fine-grained access to core services so we'll see continued Innovation compute storage AI Etc and simplification through integration and horizontal apps further up to stack Amazon connect is an example that's often cited now as we've reported many times databricks is moving from its stronghold realm of data science into business intelligence and analytics where snowflake is coming from its data analytics stronghold and moving into the world of data science AWS is going down a path of snowflake meet data bricks with an underlying cloud is and pass layer that puts these three companies on a very interesting trajectory and you can expect AWS to go right after the data sharing opportunity and in doing so it will have to address data governance they go hand in hand okay price performance that is a topic that will never go away and it's something that we haven't mentioned today silicon it's a it's an area we've covered extensively on breaking analysis from Nitro to graviton to the AWS acquisition of Annapurna its secret weapon new special specialized capabilities like inferential and trainium we'd expect something more at re invent maybe new graviton instances David floyer our colleague said he's expecting at some point a complete system on a chip SOC from AWS and maybe an arm-based server to eventually include high-speed cxl connections to devices and memories all to address next-gen applications data intensive applications with low power requirements and lower cost overall now of course every year Swami gives his usual update on machine learning and AI building on Amazon's years of sagemaker innovation perhaps a focus on conversational AI or a better support for vision and maybe better integration across Amazon's portfolio of you know large language models uh neural networks generative AI really infusing AI everywhere of course security always high on the list that reinvent and and Amazon even has reinforce a conference dedicated to it uh to security now here we'd like to see more on supply chain security and perhaps how AWS can help there as well as tooling to make the cio's life easier but the key so far is AWS is much more partner friendly in the security space than say for instance Microsoft traditionally so firms like OCTA and crowdstrike in Palo Alto have plenty of room to play in the AWS ecosystem we'd expect of course to hear something about ESG it's an important topic and hopefully how not only AWS is helping the environment that's important but also how they help customers save money and drive inclusion and diversity again very important topics and finally come back to it reinvent is an ecosystem event it's the Super Bowl of tech events and the ecosystem will be out in full force every tech company on the planet will have a presence and the cube will be featuring many of the partners from the serial floor as well as AWS execs and of course our own independent analysis so you'll definitely want to tune into thecube.net and check out our re invent coverage we start Monday evening and then we go wall to wall through Thursday hopefully my voice will come back we have three sets at the show and our entire team will be there so please reach out or stop by and say hello all right we're going to leave it there for today many thanks to Stu miniman and David floyer for the input to today's episode of course John Furrier for extracting the signal from the noise and a sit down with Adam solipski thanks to Alex Meyerson who was on production and manages the podcast Ken schiffman as well Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight helped get the word out on social and of course in our newsletters Rob hoef is our editor-in-chief over at siliconangle does some great editing thank thanks to all of you remember all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen you can pop in the headphones go for a walk just search breaking analysis podcast I published each week on wikibon.com at siliconangle.com or you can email me at david.valante at siliconangle.com or DM me at di vallante or please comment on our LinkedIn posts and do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the Enterprise Tech business this is Dave vellante for the cube insights powered by ETR thanks for watching we'll see it reinvent or we'll see you next time on breaking analysis [Music]
SUMMARY :
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Breaking Analysis: Survey Says! Takeaways from the latest CIO spending data
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The technology spending outlook is not pretty and very much unpredictable right now. The negative sentiment is of course being driven by the macroeconomic factors in earnings forecasts that have been coming down all year in an environment of rising interest rates. And what's worse, is many people think earnings estimates are still too high. But it's understandable why there's so much uncertainty. I mean, technology is still booming, digital transformations are happening in earnest, leading companies have momentum and they got cash runways. And moreover, the CEOs of these leading companies are still really optimistic. But strong guidance in an environment of uncertainty is somewhat risky. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights Powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we share takeaways from ETR'S latest spending survey, which was released to their private clients on October 21st. Today, we're going to review the macro spending data. We're going to share where CIOs think their cloud spend is headed. We're going to look at the actions that organizations are taking to manage uncertainty and then review some of the technology companies that have the most positive and negative outlooks in the ETR data set. Let's first look at the sample makeup from the latest ETR survey. ETR captured more than 1300 respondents in this latest survey. Its highest figure for the year and the quality and seniority of respondents just keeps going up each time we dig into the data. We've got large contributions as you can see here from sea level executives in a broad industry focus. Now the survey is still North America centric with 20% of the respondents coming from overseas and there is a bias toward larger organizations. And nonetheless, we're still talking well over 400 respondents coming from SMBs. Now ETR for those of you who don't know, conducts a quarterly spending intention survey and they also do periodic drilldowns. So just by the way of review, let's take a look at the expectations in the latest drilldown survey for IT spending. Before we look at the broader technology spending intentions survey data, followers of this program know that we reported on this a couple of weeks ago, spending expectations that peaked last December at 8.3% are now down to 5.5% with a slight uptick expected for next year as shown here. Now one CIO in the ETR community said these figures could be understated because of inflation. Now that's an interesting comment. Real GDP in the US is forecast to be around 1.5% in 2022. So these figures are significantly ahead of that. Nominal GDP is forecast to be significantly higher than what is shown in that slide. It was over 9% in June for example. And one would interpret that survey respondents are talking about real dollars which reflects inflationary factors in IT spend. So you might say, well if nominal GDP is in the high single digits this means that IT spending is below GDP which is usually not the case. But the flip side of that is technology tends to be deflationary because prices come down over time on a per unit basis, so this would be a normal and even positive trend. But it's mixed right now with prices on hard to find hardware, they're holding more firms. Software, you know, software tends to be driven by lock in and competition and switching costs. So you have those countervailing factors. Services can be inflationary, especially now as wages rise but certain sectors like laptops and semis and NAND are seeing less demand and maybe even some oversupply. So the way to look at this data is on a relative basis. In other words, IT buyers are reporting 280 basis point drop in spending sentiment from the end of last year. Now, something that we haven't shared from the latest drilldown survey which we will now is how IT bar buyers are thinking about cloud adoption. This chart shows responses from 419 IT execs from that drilldown and depicts the percentage of workloads their organizations have in the cloud today and what the expectation is through years from now. And you can see it's 27% today and it's nearly 50% in three years. Now the nuance is if you look at the question, that ETRS, it's they asked about IaaS and PaaS, which to some could include on-prem. Now, let me come back to that. In particular, financial services, IT, telco and retail and services industry cited expectations for the future for three years out that we're well above the average of the mean adoption levels. Regardless of how you interpret this data there's most certainly plenty of public cloud in the numbers. And whether you believe cloud is an operating environment or a place out there in the cloud, there's plenty of room for workloads to move into a cloud model well beyond mid this decade. So you know, as ho hum as we've been toward recent as-a-service models announced from the likes of HPE with GreenLake and Dell with APEX, the timing of those offerings may be pretty good actually. Now let's expand on some of the data that we showed a couple weeks ago. This chart shows responses from 282 execs on actions their organizations are taking over the next three months. And the Deltas are quite traumatic from the early part of this charter than the left hand side. The brown line is hiring freezes, the black line is freezing IT projects, and the green line is hiring increases and that red line is layoffs. And we put a box around the sort of general area of the isolation economy timeframe. And you can see the wild swings on this chart. By mid last summer, people were kickstarting things and more hiring was going on and the black line shows IT project freezes, you know, came way down. And now, or on the way back up as our hiring freezes. So we're seeing these wild swings in organizational actions and strategies which underscores the lack of predictability. As with supply chains around the world, this is likely due to the fact that organizations, pre pandemic they were optimized for efficiency, not a lot of waste rather than business resilience. Meaning, you know, there's again not a lot of fluff in the system or if there was it got flushed out during the pandemic. And so the need for productivity and automation is becoming increasingly important, especially as actions that solely rely on headcount changes are very, very difficult to manage. Now, let's dig into some of the vendor commentary and take a look at some of the names that have momentum and some of the others possibly facing headwinds. Here's a list of companies that stand out in the ETR survey. Snowflake, once again leads the pack with a positive spending outlook. HashiCorp, CrowdStrike, Databricks, Freshworks and ServiceNow, they round out the top six. Microsoft, they seem to always be in the mix, as do a number of other security and related companies including CyberArk, Zscaler, CloudFlare, Elastic, Datadog, Fortinet, Tenable and to a certain extent Akamai, you can kind of put them sort of in that group. You know, CDN, they got to worry about security. Everybody worries about security, but especially the CDNs. Now the other software names that are highlighted here include Workday and Salesforce. On the negative side, you can see Dynatrace saw some negatives in the latest survey especially around its analytics business. Security is generally holding up better than other sectors but it's still seeing greater levels of pressure than it had previously. So lower spend. And defections relative to its observability peers, that's really for Dynatrace. Now the other one that was somewhat surprising is IBM. You see the IBM was sort of in that negative realm here but IBM reported an outstanding quarter this past week with double digit revenue growth, strong momentum in software, consulting, mainframes and other infrastructure like storage. It's benefiting from the Kyndryl restructuring and it's on track IBM to deliver 10 billion in free cash flow this year. Red Hat is performing exceedingly well and growing in the very high teens. And so look, IBM is in the midst of a major transformation and it seems like a company that is really focused now with hybrid cloud being powered by Red Hat and consulting and a decade plus of AI investments finally paying off. Now the other big thing we'll add is, IBM was once an outstanding acquire of companies and it seems to be really getting its act together on the M&A front. Yes, Red Hat was a big pill to swallow but IBM has done a number of smaller acquisitions, I think seven this year. Like for example, Turbonomic, which is starting to pay off. Arvind Krishna has the company focused once again. And he and Jim J. Kavanaugh, IBM CFO, seem to be very confident on the guidance that they're giving in their business. So that's a real positive in our view for the industry. Okay, the last thing we'd like to do is take 12 of the companies from the previous chart and plot them in context. Now these companies don't necessarily compete with each other, some do. But they are standouts in the ETR survey and in the market. What we're showing here is a view that we like to often show, it's net score or spending velocity on the vertical axis. And it's a measure, that's a measure of the net percentage of customers that are spending more on a particular platform. So ETR asks, are you spending more or less? They subtract less from the mores. I mean I'm simplifying, but that's what net score is. Now in the horizontal axis, that is a measure of overlap which is which measures presence or pervasiveness in the dataset. So bigger the better. We've inserted a table that informs how the dots in the companies are positioned. These companies are all in the green in terms of net score. And that right most column in the table insert is indicative of their presence in the dataset, the end. So higher, again, is better for both columns. Two other notes, the red dotted line there you see at 40%. Anything over that indicates an highly elevated spending momentum for a given platform. And we purposefully took Microsoft out of the mix in this chart because it skews the data due to its large size. Everybody else would cluster on the left and Microsoft would be all alone in the right. So we take them out. Now as we noted earlier, Snowflake once again leads with a net score of 64%, well above the 40% line. Having said that, while adoption rates for Snowflake remains strong the company's spending velocity in the survey has come down to Earth. And many more customers are shifting from where they were last year and the year before in growth mode i.e. spending more year to year with Snowflake to now shifting more toward flat spending. So a plus or minus 5%. So that puts pressure on Snowflake's net score, just based on the math as to how ETR calculates, its proprietary net score methodology. So Snowflake is by no means insulated completely to the macro factors. And this was seen especially in the data in the Fortune 500 cut of the survey for Snowflake. We didn't show that here, just giving you anecdotal commentary from the survey which is backed up by data. So, it showed steeper declines in the Fortune 500 momentum. But overall, Snowflake, very impressive. Now what's more, note the position of Streamlit relative to Databricks. Streamlit is an open source python framework for developing data driven, data science oriented apps. And it's ironic that it's net score and shared in is almost identical to those of data bricks, as the aspirations of Snowflake and Databricks are beginning to collide. Now, however, the Databricks net score has held up very well over the past year and is in the 92nd percentile of its machine learning and AI peers. And while it's seeing some softness, like Snowflake in the Fortune 500, Databricks has steadily moved to the right on the X axis over the last several surveys even though it was unable to get to the public markets and do an IPO during the lockdown tech bubble. Let's come back to the chart. ServiceNow is impressive because it's well above the 40% mark and it has 437 shared in on this cut, the largest of any company that we chose to plot here. The only real negative on ServiceNow is, more large customers are keeping spending levels flat. That's putting a little bit pressure on its net score, but that's just conservatives. It's kind of like Snowflakes, you know, same thing but in a larger scale. But it's defections, the ServiceNow as in Snowflake as well. It's defections remain very, very low, really low churn below 2% for ServiceNow, in fact, within the dataset. Now it's interesting to also see Freshworks hit the list. You can see them as one of the few ITSM vendors that has momentum and can potentially take on ServiceNow. Workday, on this chart, it's the other big app player that's above the 40% line and we're only showing Workday HCM, FYI, in this graphic. It's Workday Financials, that offering, is below the 40% line just for reference. Now let's talk about CrowdStrike. We attended Falcon last month, CrowdStrike's user conference and we're very impressed with the product visio, the company's execution, it's growing partnerships. And you can see in this graphic, the ETR survey data confirms the company's stellar performance with a net score at 50%, well above the 40% mark. And importantly, more than 300 mentions. That's second only to ServiceNow, amongst the 12 companies that we've chosen to highlight here. Only Microsoft, which is not shown here, has a higher net score in the security space than CrowdStrike. And when it comes to presence, CrowdStrike now has caught up to Splunk in terms of pervasion in the survey. Now CyberArk and Zscaler are the other two security firms that are right at that 40% red dotted line. CyberArk for names with over a hundred citations in the security sector, is only behind Microsoft and CrowdStrike. Zscaler for its part in the survey is seeing strong momentum in the Fortune 500, unlike what we said for Snowflake. And its pervasion on the X-axis has been steadily increasing. Again, not that Snowflake and CrowdStrike compete with each other but they're too prominent names and it's just interesting to compare peers and business models. Cloudflare, Elastic and Datadog are slightly below the 40% mark but they made the sort of top 12 that we showed to highlight here and they continue to have positive sentiment in the survey. So, what are the big takeaways from this latest survey, this really quick snapshot that we've taken. As you know, over the next several weeks we're going to dig into it more and more. As we've previously reported, the tide is going out and it's taking virtually all the tech ships with it. But in many ways the current market is a story of heightened expectations coming down to Earth, miscalculations about the economic patterns and the swings and imperfect visibility. Leading Barclays analyst, Ramo Limchao ask the question to guide or not to guide in a recent research note he wrote. His point being, should companies guide or should they be more cautious? Many companies, if not most companies, are actually giving guidance. Indeed, when companies like Oracle and IBM are emphatic about their near term outlook and their visibility, it gives one confidence. On the other hand, reasonable people are asking, will the red hot valuations that we saw over the last two years from the likes of Snowflake, CrowdStrike, MongoDB, Okta, Zscaler, and others. Will they return? Or are we in for a long, drawn out, sideways exercise before we see sustained momentum? And to that uncertainty, we add elections and public policy. It's very hard to predict right now. I'm sorry to be like a two-handed lawyer, you know. On the one hand, on the other hand. But that's just the way it is. Let's just say for our part, we think that once it's clear that interest rates are on their way back down and we'll stabilize it under 4% and we have clarity on the direction of inflation, wages, unemployment and geopolitics, the wild swings and sentiment will subside. But when that happens is anyone's guess. If I had to peg, I'd say 18 months, which puts us at least into the spring of 2024. What's your prediction? You know, it's almost that time of year. Let's hear it. Please keep in touch and let us know what you think. Okay, that's it for now. Many thanks to Alex Myerson. He is on production and he manages the podcast for us. Ken Schiffman as well is our newest addition to the Boston Studio. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hoff is our EIC, editor-in-chief over at SiliconANGLE. He does some wonderful editing for us. Thank you all. Remember all these episodes, they are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search breaking analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante. Or feel free to comment on our LinkedIn posts. And please do check out etr.ai. They've got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. If you haven't checked that out, you should. It'll give you an advantage. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights Powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. Be well and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (soft upbeat music)
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Breaking Analysis: CEO Nuggets from Microsoft Ignite & Google Cloud Next
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> This past week we saw two of the Big 3 cloud providers present the latest update on their respective cloud visions, their business progress, their announcements and innovations. The content at these events had many overlapping themes, including modern cloud infrastructure at global scale, applying advanced machine intelligence, AKA AI, end-to-end data platforms, collaboration software. They talked a lot about the future of work automation. And they gave us a little taste, each company of the Metaverse Web 3.0 and much more. Despite these striking similarities, the differences between these two cloud platforms and that of AWS remains significant. With Microsoft leveraging its massive application software footprint to dominate virtually all markets and Google doing everything in its power to keep up with the frenetic pace of today's cloud innovation, which was set into motion a decade and a half ago by AWS. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we unpack the immense amount of content presented by the CEOs of Microsoft and Google Cloud at Microsoft Ignite and Google Cloud Next. We'll also quantify with ETR survey data the relative position of these two cloud giants in four key sectors: cloud IaaS, BI analytics, data platforms and collaboration software. Now one thing was clear this past week, hybrid events are the thing. Google Cloud Next took place live over a 24-hour period in six cities around the world, with the main gathering in New York City. Microsoft Ignite, which normally is attended by 30,000 people, had a smaller event in Seattle, in person with a virtual audience around the world. AWS re:Invent, of course, is much different. Yes, there's a virtual component at re:Invent, but it's all about a big live audience gathering the week after Thanksgiving, in the first week of December in Las Vegas. Regardless, Satya Nadella keynote address was prerecorded. It was highly produced and substantive. It was visionary, energetic with a strong message that Azure was a platform to allow customers to build their digital businesses. Doing more with less, which was a key theme of his. Nadella covered a lot of ground, starting with infrastructure from the compute, highlighting a collaboration with Arm-based, Ampere processors. New block storage, 60 regions, 175,000 miles of fiber cables around the world. He presented a meaningful multi-cloud message with Azure Arc to support on-prem and edge workloads, as well as of course the public cloud. And talked about confidential computing at the infrastructure level, a theme we hear from all cloud vendors. He then went deeper into the end-to-end data platform that Microsoft is building from the core data stores to analytics, to governance and the myriad tooling Microsoft offers. AI was next with a big focus on automation, AI, training models. He showed demos of machines coding and fixing code and machines automatically creating designs for creative workers and how Power Automate, Microsoft's RPA tooling, would combine with Microsoft Syntex to understand documents and provide standard ways for organizations to communicate with those documents. There was of course a big focus on Azure as developer cloud platform with GitHub Copilot as a linchpin using AI to assist coders in low-code and no-code innovations that are coming down the pipe. And another giant theme was a workforce transformation and how Microsoft is using its heritage and collaboration and productivity software to move beyond what Nadella called productivity paranoia, i.e., are remote workers doing their jobs? In a world where collaboration is built into intelligent workflows, and he even showed a glimpse of the future with AI-powered avatars and partnerships with Meta and Cisco with Teams of all firms. And finally, security with a bevy of tools from identity, endpoint, governance, et cetera, stressing a suite of tools from a single provider, i.e., Microsoft. So a couple points here. One, Microsoft is following in the footsteps of AWS with silicon advancements and didn't really emphasize that trend much except for the Ampere announcement. But it's building out cloud infrastructure at a massive scale, there is no debate about that. Its plan on data is to try and provide a somewhat more abstracted and simplified solutions, which differs a little bit from AWS's approach of the right database tool, for example, for the right job. Microsoft's automation play appears to provide simple individual productivity tools, kind of a ground up approach and make it really easy for users to drive these bottoms up initiatives. We heard from UiPath that forward five last month, a little bit of a different approach of horizontal automation, end-to-end across platforms. So quite a different play there. Microsoft's angle on workforce transformation is visionary and will continue to solidify in our view its dominant position with Teams and Microsoft 365, and it will drive cloud infrastructure consumption by default. On security as well as a cloud player, it has to have world-class security, and Azure does. There's not a lot of debate about that, but the knock on Microsoft is Patch Tuesday becomes Hack Wednesday because Microsoft releases so many patches, it's got so much Swiss cheese in its legacy estate and patching frequently, it becomes a roadmap and a trigger for hackers. Hey, patch Tuesday, these are all the exploits that you can go after so you can act before the patches are implemented. And so it's really become a problem for users. As well Microsoft is competing with many of the best-of-breed platforms like CrowdStrike and Okta, which have market momentum and appear to be more attractive horizontal plays for customers outside of just the Microsoft cloud. But again, it's Microsoft. They make it easy and very inexpensive to adopt. Now, despite the outstanding presentation by Satya Nadella, there are a couple of statements that should raise eyebrows. Here are two of them. First, as he said, Azure is the only cloud that supports all organizations and all workloads from enterprises to startups, to highly regulated industries. I had a conversation with Sarbjeet Johal about this, to make sure I wasn't just missing something and we were both surprised, somewhat, by this claim. I mean most certainly AWS supports more certifications for example, and we would think it has a reasonable case to dispute that claim. And the other statement, Nadella made, Azure is the only cloud provider enabling highly regulated industries to bring their most sensitive applications to the cloud. Now, reasonable people can debate whether AWS is there yet, but very clearly Oracle and IBM would have something to say about that statement. Now maybe it's not just, would say, "Oh, they're not real clouds, you know, they're just going to hosting in the cloud if you will." But still, when it comes to mission-critical applications, you would think Oracle is really the the leader there. Oh, and Satya also mentioned the claim that the Edge browser, the Microsoft Edge browser, no questions asked, he said, is the best browser for business. And we could see some people having some questions about that. Like isn't Edge based on Chrome? Anyway, so we just had to question these statements and challenge Microsoft to defend them because to us it's a little bit of BS and makes one wonder what else in such as awesome keynote and it was awesome, it was hyperbole. Okay, moving on to Google Cloud Next. The keynote started with Sundar Pichai doing a virtual session, he was remote, stressing the importance of Google Cloud. He mentioned that Google Cloud from its Q2 earnings was on a $25-billion annual run rate. What he didn't mention is that it's also on a 3.6 billion annual operating loss run rate based on its first half performance. Just saying. And we'll dig into that issue a little bit more later in this episode. He also stressed that the investments that Google has made to support its core business and search, like its global network of 22 subsea cables to support things like, YouTube video, great performance obviously that we all rely on, those innovations there. Innovations in BigQuery to support its search business and its threat analysis that it's always had and its AI, it's always been an AI-first company, he's stressed, that they're all leveraged by the Google Cloud Platform, GCP. This is all true by the way. Google has absolutely awesome tech and the talk, as well as his talk, Pichai, but also Kurian's was forward thinking and laid out a vision of the future. But it didn't address in our view, and I talked to Sarbjeet Johal about this as well, today's challenges to the degree that Microsoft did and we expect AWS will at re:Invent this year, it was more out there, more forward thinking, what's possible in the future, somewhat less about today's problem, so I think it's resonates less with today's enterprise players. Thomas Kurian then took over from Sundar Pichai and did a really good job of highlighting customers, and I think he has to, right? He has to say, "Look, we are in this game. We have customers, 9 out of the top 10 media firms use Google Cloud. 8 out of the top 10 manufacturers. 9 out of the top 10 retailers. Same for telecom, same for healthcare. 8 out of the top 10 retail banks." He and Sundar specifically referenced a number of companies, customers, including Avery Dennison, Groupe Renault, H&M, John Hopkins, Prudential, Minna Bank out of Japan, ANZ bank and many, many others during the session. So you know, they had some proof points and you got to give 'em props for that. Now like Microsoft, Google talked about infrastructure, they referenced training processors and regions and compute optionality and storage and how new workloads were emerging, particularly data-driven workloads in AI that required new infrastructure. He explicitly highlighted partnerships within Nvidia and Intel. I didn't see anything on Arm, which somewhat surprised me 'cause I believe Google's working on that or at least has come following in AWS's suit if you will, but maybe that's why they're not mentioning it or maybe I got to do more research there, but let's park that for a minute. But again, as we've extensively discussed in Breaking Analysis in our view when it comes to compute, AWS via its Annapurna acquisition is well ahead of the pack in this area. Arm is making its way into the enterprise, but all three companies are heavily investing in infrastructure, which is great news for customers and the ecosystem. We'll come back to that. Data and AI go hand in hand, and there was no shortage of data talk. Google didn't mention Snowflake or Databricks specifically, but it did mention, by the way, it mentioned Mongo a couple of times, but it did mention Google's, quote, Open Data cloud. Now maybe Google has used that term before, but Snowflake has been marketing the data cloud concept for a couple of years now. So that struck as a shot across the bow to one of its partners and obviously competitor, Snowflake. At BigQuery is a main centerpiece of Google's data strategy. Kurian talked about how they can take any data from any source in any format from any cloud provider with BigQuery Omni and aggregate and understand it. And with the support of Apache Iceberg and Delta and Hudi coming in the future and its open Data Cloud Alliance, they talked a lot about that. So without specifically mentioning Snowflake or Databricks, Kurian co-opted a lot of messaging from these two players, such as life and tech. Kurian also talked about Google Workspace and how it's now at 8 million users up from 6 million just two years ago. There's a lot of discussion on developer optionality and several details on tools supported and the open mantra of Google. And finally on security, Google brought out Kevin Mandian, he's a CUBE alum, extremely impressive individual who's CEO of Mandiant, a leading security service provider and consultancy that Google recently acquired for around 5.3 billion. They talked about moving from a shared responsibility model to a shared fate model, which is again, it's kind of a shot across AWS's bow, kind of shared responsibility model. It's unclear that Google will pay the same penalty if a customer doesn't live up to its portion of the shared responsibility, but we can probably assume that the customer is still going to bear the brunt of the pain, nonetheless. Mandiant is really interesting because it's a services play and Google has stated that it is not a services company, it's going to give partners in the channel plenty of room to play. So we'll see what it does with Mandiant. But Mandiant is a very strong enterprise capability and in the single most important area security. So interesting acquisition by Google. Now as well, unlike Microsoft, Google is not competing with security leaders like Okta and CrowdStrike. Rather, it's partnering aggressively with those firms and prominently putting them forth. All right. Let's get into the ETR survey data and see how Microsoft and Google are positioned in four key markets that we've mentioned before, IaaS, BI analytics, database data platforms and collaboration software. First, let's look at the IaaS cloud. ETR is just about to release its October survey, so I cannot share the that data yet. I can only show July data, but we're going to give you some directional hints throughout this conversation. This chart shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and overlap or presence in the data, i.e., how pervasive the platform is. That's on the horizontal axis. And we've inserted the Wikibon estimates of IaaS revenue for the companies, the Big 3. Actually the Big 4, we included Alibaba. So a couple of points in this somewhat busy data chart. First, Microsoft and AWS as always are dominant on both axes. The red dotted line there at 40% on the vertical axis. That represents a highly elevated spending velocity and all of the Big 3 are above the line. Now at the same time, GCP is well behind the two leaders on the horizontal axis and you can see that in the table insert as well in our revenue estimates. Now why is Azure bigger in the ETR survey when AWS is larger according to the Wikibon revenue estimates? And the answer is because Microsoft with products like 365 and Teams will often be considered by respondents in the survey as cloud by customers, so they fit into that ETR category. But in the insert data we're stripping out applications and SaaS from Microsoft and Google and we're only isolating on IaaS. The other point is when you take a look at the early October returns, you see downward pressure as signified by those dotted arrows on every name. The only exception was Dell, or Dell and IBM, which showing slightly improved momentum. So the survey data generally confirms what we know that AWS and Azure have a massive lead and strong momentum in the marketplace. But the real story is below the line. Unlike Google Cloud, which is on pace to lose well over 3 billion on an operating basis this year, AWS's operating profit is around $20 billion annually. Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud generated more than $30 billion in operating income last fiscal year. Let that sink in for a moment. Now again, that's not to say Google doesn't have traction, it does and Kurian gave some nice proof points and customer examples in his keynote presentation, but the data underscores the lead that Microsoft and AWS have on Google in cloud. And here's a breakdown of ETR's proprietary net score methodology, that vertical axis that we showed you in the previous chart. It asks customers, are you adopting the platform new? That's that lime green. Are you spending 6% or more? That's the forest green. Is you're spending flat? That's the gray. Is you're spending down 6% or worse? That's the pinkest color. Or are you replacing the platform, defecting? That's the bright red. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get a net score. Now one caveat here, which actually is really favorable from Microsoft, the Microsoft data that we're showing here is across the entire Microsoft portfolio. The other point is, this is July data, we'll have an update for you once ETR releases its October results. But we're talking about meaningful samples here, the ends. 620 for AWS over a thousand from Microsoft in more than 450 respondents in the survey for Google. So the real tell is replacements, that bright red. There is virtually no churn for AWS and Microsoft, but Google's churn is 5x, those two in the survey. Now 5% churn is not high, but you'd like to see three things for Google given it's smaller size. One is less churn, two is much, much higher adoption rates in the lime green. Three is a higher percentage of those spending more, the forest green. And four is a lower percentage of those spending less. And none of these conditions really applies here for Google. GCP is still not growing fast enough in our opinion, and doesn't have nearly the traction of the two leaders and that shows up in the survey data. All right, let's look at the next sector, BI analytics. Here we have that same XY dimension. Again, Microsoft dominating the picture. AWS very strong also in both axes. Tableau, very popular and respectable of course acquired by Salesforce on the vertical axis, still looking pretty good there. And again on the horizontal axis, big presence there for Tableau. And Google with Looker and its other platforms is also respectable, but it again, has some work to do. Now notice Streamlit, that's a recent Snowflake acquisition. It's strong in the vertical axis and because of Snowflake's go-to-market (indistinct), it's likely going to move to the right overtime. Grafana is also prominent in the Y axis, but a glimpse at the most recent survey data shows them slightly declining while Looker actually improves a bit. As does Cloudera, which we'll move up slightly. Again, Microsoft just blows you away, doesn't it? All right, now let's get into database and data platform. Same X Y dimensions, but now database and data warehouse. Snowflake as usual takes the top spot on the vertical axis and it is actually keeps moving to the right as well with again, Microsoft and AWS is dominant in the market, as is Oracle on the X axis, albeit it's got less spending velocity, but of course it's the database king. Google is well behind on the X axis but solidly above the 40% line on the vertical axis. Note that virtually all platforms will see pressure in the next survey due to the macro environment. Microsoft might even dip below the 40% line for the first time in a while. Lastly, let's look at the collaboration and productivity software market. This is such an important area for both Microsoft and Google. And just look at Microsoft with 365 and Teams up into the right. I mean just so impressive in ubiquitous. And we've highlighted Google. It's in the pack. It certainly is a nice base with 174 N, which I can tell you that N will rise in the next survey, which is an indication that more people are adopting. But given the investment and the tech behind it and all the AI and Google's resources, you'd really like to see Google in this space above the 40% line, given the importance of this market, of this collaboration area to Google's success and the degree to which they emphasize it in their pitch. And look, this brings up something that we've talked about before on Breaking Analysis. Google doesn't have a tech problem. This is a go-to-market and marketing challenge that Google faces and it's up against two go-to-market champs and Microsoft and AWS. And Google doesn't have the enterprise sales culture. It's trying, it's making progress, but it's like that racehorse that has all the potential in the world, but it's just missing some kind of key ingredient to put it over at the top. It's always coming in third, (chuckles) but we're watching and Google's obviously, making some investments as we shared with earlier. All right. Some final thoughts on what we learned this week and in this research: customers and partners should be thrilled that both Microsoft and Google along with AWS are spending so much money on innovation and building out global platforms. This is a gift to the industry and we should be thankful frankly because it's good for business, it's good for competitiveness and future innovation as a platform that can be built upon. Now we didn't talk much about multi-cloud, we haven't even mentioned supercloud, but both Microsoft and Google have a story that resonates with customers in cross cloud capabilities, unlike AWS at this time. But we never say never when it comes to AWS. They sometimes and oftentimes surprise you. One of the other things that Sarbjeet Johal and John Furrier and I have discussed is that each of the Big 3 is positioning to their respective strengths. AWS is the best IaaS. Microsoft is building out the kind of, quote, we-make-it-easy-for-you cloud, and Google is trying to be the open data cloud with its open-source chops and excellent tech. And that puts added pressure on Snowflake, doesn't it? You know, Thomas Kurian made some comments according to CRN, something to the effect that, we are the only company that can do the data cloud thing across clouds, which again, if I'm being honest is not really accurate. Now I haven't clarified these statements with Google and often things get misquoted, but there's little question that, as AWS has done in the past with Redshift, Google is taking a page out of Snowflake, Databricks as well. A big difference in the Big 3 is that AWS doesn't have this big emphasis on the up-the-stack collaboration software that both Microsoft and Google have, and that for Microsoft and Google will drive captive IaaS consumption. AWS obviously does some of that in database, a lot of that in database, but ISVs that compete with Microsoft and Google should have a greater affinity, one would think, to AWS for competitive reasons. and the same thing could be said in security, we would think because, as I mentioned before, Microsoft competes very directly with CrowdStrike and Okta and others. One of the big thing that Sarbjeet mentioned that I want to call out here, I'd love to have your opinion. AWS specifically, but also Microsoft with Azure have successfully created what Sarbjeet calls brand distance. AWS from the Amazon Retail, and even though AWS all the time talks about Amazon X and Amazon Y is in their product portfolio, but you don't really consider it part of the retail organization 'cause it's not. Azure, same thing, has created its own identity. And it seems that Google still struggles to do that. It's still very highly linked to the sort of core of Google. Now, maybe that's by design, but for enterprise customers, there's still some potential confusion with Google, what's its intentions? How long will they continue to lose money and invest? Are they going to pull the plug like they do on so many other tools? So you know, maybe some rethinking of the marketing there and the positioning. Now we didn't talk much about ecosystem, but it's vital for any cloud player, and Google again has some work to do relative to the leaders. Which brings us to supercloud. The ecosystem and end customers are now in a position this decade to digitally transform. And we're talking here about building out their own clouds, not by putting in and building data centers and installing racks of servers and storage devices, no. Rather to build value on top of the hyperscaler gift that has been presented. And that is a mega trend that we're watching closely in theCUBE community. While there's debate about the supercloud name and so forth, there little question in our minds that the next decade of cloud will not be like the last. All right, we're going to leave it there today. Many thanks to Sarbjeet Johal, and my business partner, John Furrier, for their input to today's episode. Thanks to Alex Myerson who's on production and manages the podcast and Ken Schiffman as well. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight helped get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE, who does some wonderful editing. And check out SiliconANGLE, a lot of coverage on Google Cloud Next and Microsoft Ignite. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcast wherever you listen. Just search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. And you can always get in touch with me via email, david.vellante@siliconangle.com or you can DM me at dvellante or comment on my LinkedIn posts. And please do check out etr.ai, the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (gentle music)
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Breaking Analysis: How CrowdStrike Plans to Become a Generational Platform
>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> In just over 10 years, CrowdStrike has become a leading independent security firm with more than 2 billion in annual recurring revenue, nearly 60% ARR growth, and approximate $40 billion market capitalization, very high retention rates, low churn, and a path to 5 billion in revenue by mid decade. The company has joined Palo Alto Networks as a gold standard pure play cyber security firm. It has achieved this lofty status with an architecture that goes beyond a point product. With outstanding go to market and financial execution, some sharp acquisitions and an ever increasing total available market. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis" and ahead of Falcon, Fal.Con, CrowdStrike's user conference, we take a deeper look into CrowdStrike, its performance, its platform, and survey data from our partner ETR. Now, the general consensus is that spending on Cyber is non-discretionary and is held up better than other technology sectors. While this is generally true, as this data shows, it's nuanced. Let's explore this a bit. First, this is a year-to-date chart of the stock performance of CrowdStrike relative to Palo Alto, the BUG ETF, which is a Cyber index, the NASDAQ and SentinelOne, a relatively new entrant to the IPO public markets. Now, as you can see the security sector as evidenced by the orange line, that Cyber ETF, is holding up better than the overall NASDAQ which is off 28% year-to-date. Palo Alto has held up incredibly well, the best, being off only around 4% year-to-date. Whereas CrowdStrike is off in the double digits this year. But up as we talked about in one of our last "Breaking Analysis" on Cyber, up from its lows this past May. Now, CrowdStrike had a very nice beat and raise on August 30th. But the stop didn't respond well initially. We asked "Breaking Analysis" contributor, Chip Simonton for his technical take and he stated that CrowdStrike has bounced around for the last three months in its current range. He said that Cyber stocks have held up better than the rest of the market, as we're showing. And now might be a good time to take a shot but he is cautious. FedEx had a warning today of a global recession and that's obvious case for a concern. You know, maybe some of these quality Cyber stocks like Palo Alto and CrowdStrike and Zscaler will outperform in a recession, but that play is not for the faint of heart. In fact, it's feeling like a longer, more drawn out tech lash than many had hoped. Perhaps as much as 12 to 18 months of bouncing around with sellers still in control, is generally the sentiment from Simonton. So in terms of Cyber spending being non-discretionary, we'd say it's less discretionary than other it sectors but the CISO still does not have an open wallet, as we've reported before. We've seen that spending momentum has decelerated in all sectors throughout the year. This is an across the board trend. Now, independent of the stock price, George Kurtz, CEO of CrowdStrike, he's running a marathon, not a sprint. And this company is running at a nice pace despite tough macro headwinds. The company is free cash flow positive and is in the black, or a non-GAAP operating profit basis and yet it's growing ARR at nearly 60%. Frank Slootman uses the term inherent profitability, meaning that the company could drive more profits if it wanted to dial down expenses especially in go to market costs. But that would be a mistake for a company like CrowdStrike, in our opinion. While it has an impressive nearly 20,000 customers, there are hundreds of thousands of customers that CrowdStrike could penetrate. So like Snowflake and Slootman, Kurtz is not taking its foot off the gas. Now, the fundamental strength of CrowdStrike and its secret sauce is its architecture and platform, in our view, so let's take a deeper look. CrowdStrike believes that the unstoppable breach is a myth. Now, CISOs don't agree with that because they assume they're going to get breached, but that's CrowdStrike's point of view, so lofty vision. CrowdStrike's mission is to consolidate the patchwork of solutions by introducing modules that go beyond point products. CrowdStrike has more than 20 modules, I think 22, that span a range of capabilities as shown in this table. Now, there are a few critical aspects of the CrowdStrike architecture that bear mentioning. First is the lightweight agent, that is fundamental. You know, we're used to thinking that agentless is good and agent is bad, but in this case, a powerful but small, slim and easy to install but unobtrusive agent has its advantages because it supports multiple CrowdStrike modules. The second point is CrowdStrike from the beginning has been dogmatic about getting all the telemetry data into the cloud. It sort of shunned doing bespoke on prem so that all the data could be analyzed. So the more agents that CrowdStrike installs around the world, the more data it has access to and the better its intelligence. Few companies have access to more data, perhaps Microsoft given it scale and size is an exception in that endpoint space. CrowdStrike has developed a purpose-built threat graph and analytics platform that allows it to quickly ingest in near real time key telemetry data and detect not only known malware, that's pretty straightforward, pretty much anybody could do that. But using machine intelligence, it can also detect unknown malware and other potentially malicious behavior using indicators of attack, IOC, or IOAs. Humio is shown here as a company that CrowdStrike bought for around 400 million in early 2020, early 2021. It's the company's Splunk killer and will serve as an observability platform. It's really starting to take off, that's a great market for them to go after. CrowdStrike, to try to put it into sort of a summary, uses a three pronged approach. First is it's next generation anti-virus, meaning it's SaaS base. SAS based solution that can do fast lookups to telemetry data and that data lives in the cloud. And this leverages cloud strikes proprietary threat graph. Now, the second is endpoint detection and response. CrowdStrike sends all endpoint activity to the cloud and can process the data in real time. CrowdStrike EDR allows you to search data history and its partners with threat intelligent platforms who push the data into CrowdStrike, the CrowdStrike cloud. This increases CloudStrike's observation space. It also has containment capabilities in EDR to fence off compromised system. Now, the third leg of the stool is CrowdStrike's world class manage hunting approach. Like many firms, CrowdStrike has a crack team of experts that is looking at the data, but CrowdStrike's advantage is the amount of data, that observation space that we just talked about, and near real time capabilities of the architecture thanks to that proprietary database that they've developed. And all this is built in the cloud and so it enables global scale. And of course, agility. Now, let's dig into some of the survey data and take a look at what ETR respondents are saying about the spending momentum for CrowdStrike in context with its peers. Here's a very recent dataset, the October preliminary data from the October dataset in ETR's survey. Eric Bradley shared with us, ETR's head of strategy, and he runs the round tables, he's a frequent "Breaking Analysis" contributor. This is an XY graph with Netcore or spending momentum on the vertical axis and the overlap or pervasiveness in the survey on the horizontal axis. That dotted red line at 40% indicates an elevated level of spending velocity. Anything above that, we consider really impressive. Note the CrowdStrike progression since the pandemic started. The two notable points are one, that CrowdStrike has remained consistently above that 40% mark and two, it has made notable progress to the right. You can see that sort of squiggly line consistently increasing its share with one little anomaly there in the early days of over a two-year period. The other call out here is Microsoft in the upper-right. We circled Microsoft as usual. Microsoft messes up the data because it's such a dominant player and has referenced earlier as a massive scale and very quality telemetry from its endpoints. Unlike AWS, Microsoft is a direct competitor of CrowdStrike's. Nonetheless, the sector remains very strong with lots of players. Cyber is a large and expanding TAM with too many point tools that CrowdStrike is well positioned to consolidate, in our view. Now, here's a more narrow view of that same XY graph. What it does is it takes out Microsoft to kind of normalize the data a bit and it compares a number of firms that specialize in endpoint, along with CrowdStrike such as Tanium which also has a lightweight agent, by the way, and appears to be doing pretty well. SentinelOne did a relatively recent IPO, took off, stock hasn't done as well since, as you saw earlier. Carbon Black which VMware bought for around $2 billion and Cylance which is the Blackberry pivot. Now, we've also for context included Palo Alto and Cisco because they are major players with the big presence in security and they've got solutions that compete with CrowdStrike. But you can see how CrowdStrike looms large with a higher net score than these others. Although Palo Alto is very impressive, as is Cisco, steady. But Palo Alto also, sorry, CrowdStrike also has a very steady posture instead of just looming on that X axis. Let's now take a look at XDR, extended detection and response. XDR is kind of this bit of a buzzword but CrowdStrike seems to be taking the mantle and trying to sort of own the category and define it, in our view. It's a natural evolution of endpoint detection and response, EDR. In a recent ETR Roundtable hosted by our colleague, Eric Bradley, the sentiment among several CIOs is that existing SIEM, security information and event management platforms are inadequate and some see XDR as a replacement for, or at least a strong compliment to SIEM. CISOs want a single view of their data. Hmm, you haven't heard that before. They want help prioritizing potentially high impact breaches and they want to automate the low level stuff because the problem is sometimes too much information becomes information overload and you can't prioritize. So they want to consolidate platforms. They want better co consistency. They have too many dashboards, too many stove pipes. They have difficulty scaling and they have inconsistent telemetry data. As one CISO said, it's a call out here. "If the regulatory requirement isn't there, I absolutely would get rid of my SIEM." So CrowdStrike, we feel, is in a good position to continue to gain, share and disrupt this space. And that's what Dave Nicholson and I will be looking for next week when theCUBE is at Fal.Con, CrowdStrike's user conference. We'll be there for two days at the area in Vegas. In addition to CrowdStrike CEO, we'll hear from government cyber experts. We always hear that at security conferences and the CEO of Mandiant. Google just the other day closed its $5 billion plus acquisition of Mandiant, which is a threat intelligence expert and MSSP. I'm going to hear a lot about MSSPs by the way. CrowdStrike is a growing MSSP base. We think that's a really interesting sector because many companies don't have a SOC. As many as 50% of companies in the United States don't have a security operations center. So they need help, that's where MSPs come in. At the conference, there'll be a real focus on the Falcon platform. And we expect CrowdStrike to educate the audience on its multiple modules and how to take advantage of the capabilities beyond endpoint. And we'll also be watching for the ecosystem conversations. We saw this at reinforced, for example, where CrowdStrike and Okta were presenting together to show how these companies products compliment each other in the marketplace. Sometimes it gets confusing when you hear that CrowdStrike has an identity product. Okta, of course, is the identity specialist. So we'll be helping extract that signal from the noise. Because a generational company must have a strong ecosystem. CrowdStrike is evolving and our belief is that it has some work to do to create a stronger partner flywheel, and we're eager to dig into that next week. So if you're at the event, please do stop by theCUBE, say hello to Dave Nicholson and myself. Okay, we're going to leave it there today. Many thanks to Chip Simonton and Eric Bradley for their input and contributions to today's episode. Thanks to Alex Myerson, who does production, he also manages our podcast, Ken Schiffman as well, in our Boston studios, Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and our newsletters, and Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at siliconangle.com. He does some wonderful editing and I really appreciate that. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen, just search "Breaking Analysis" Podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and you can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @DVellante or comment on our LinkedIn post. And please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time on "Breaking Analysis". (upbeat music)
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Breaking Analysis: VMware Explore 2022 will mark the start of a Supercloud journey
>> From the Cube studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> While the precise direction of VMware's future is unknown, given the plan Broadcom acquisition, one thing is clear. The topic of what Broadcom plans will not be the main focus of the agenda at the upcoming VMware Explore event next week in San Francisco. We believe that despite any uncertainty, VMware will lay out for its customers what it sees as its future. And that future is multi-cloud or cross-cloud services, what we call Supercloud. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we drill into the latest survey data on VMware from ETR. And we'll share with you the next iteration of the Supercloud definition based on feedback from dozens of contributors. And we'll give you our take on what to expect next week at VMware Explorer 2022. Well, VMware is maturing. You can see it in the numbers. VMware had a solid quarter just this week, which was announced beating earnings and growing the top line by 6%. But it's clear from its financials and the ETR data that we're showing here that VMware's Halcion glory days are behind it. This chart shows the spending profile from ETR's July survey of nearly 1500 IT buyers and CIOs. The survey included 722 VMware customers with the green bars showing elevated spending momentum, ie: growth, either new or growing at more than 6%. And the red bars show lower spending, either down 6% or worse or defections. The gray bars, that's the flat spending crowd, and it really tells a story. Look, nobody's throwing away their VMware platforms. They're just not investing as rapidly as in previous years. The blue line shows net score or spending momentum and subtracts the reds from the greens. The yellow line shows market penetration or pervasiveness in the survey. So the data is pretty clear. It's steady, but it's not remarkable. Now, the timing of the acquisition, quite rightly, is quite good, I would say. Now, this next chart shows the net score and pervasiveness juxtaposed on an XY graph and breaks down the VMware portfolio in those dimensions, the product portfolio. And you can see the dominance of respondents citing VMware as the platform. They might not know exactly which services they use, but they just respond VMware. That's on the X axis. You can see it way to the right. And the spending momentum or the net score is on the Y axis. That red dotted line at 4%, that indicates elevated levels and only VMware cloud on AWS is above that line. Notably, Tanzu has jumped up significantly from previous quarters, with the rest of the portfolio showing steady, as you would expect from a maturing platform. Only carbon black is hovering in the red zone, kind of ironic given the name. We believe that VMware is going to be a major player in cross cloud services, what we refer to as Supercloud. For months, we've been refining the concept and the definition. At Supercloud '22, we had discussions with more than 30 technology and business experts, and we've gathered input from many more. Based on that feedback, here's the definition we've landed on. It's somewhat refined from our earlier definition that we published a couple weeks ago. Supercloud is an emerging computing architecture that comprises a set of services abstracted from the underlying primitives of hyperscale clouds, e.g. compute, storage, networking, security, and other native resources, to create a global system spanning more than one cloud. Supercloud is three essential properties, three deployment models, and three service models. So what are those essential elements, those properties? We've simplified the picture from our last report. We show them here. I'll review them briefly. We're not going to go super in depth here because we've covered this topic a lot. But supercloud, it runs on more than one cloud. It creates that common or identical experience across clouds. It contains a necessary capability that we call a superPaaS that acts as a cloud interpreter, and it has metadata intelligence to optimize for a specific purpose. We'll publish this definition in detail. So again, we're not going to spend a ton of time here today. Now, we've identified three deployment models for Supercloud. The first is a single instantiation, where a control plane runs on one cloud but supports interactions with multiple other clouds. An example we use is Kubernetes cluster management service that runs on one cloud but can deploy and manage clusters on other clouds. The second model is a multi-cloud, multi-region instantiation where a full stack of services is instantiated on multiple clouds and multiple cloud regions with a common interface across them. We've used cohesity as one example of this. And then a single global instance that spans multiple cloud providers. That's our snowflake example. Again, we'll publish this in detail. So we're not going to spend a ton of time here today. Finally, the service models. The feedback we've had is IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS work fine to describe the service models for Supercloud. NetApp's Cloud Volume is a good example in IaaS. VMware cloud foundation and what we expect at VMware Explore is a good PaaS example. And SAP HANA Cloud is a good example of SaaS running as a Supercloud service. That's the SAP HANA multi-cloud. So what is it that we expect from VMware Explore 2022? Well, along with what will be an exciting and speculation filled gathering of the VMware community at the Moscone Center, we believe VMware will lay out its future architectural direction. And we expect it will fit the Supercloud definition that we just described. We think VMware will show its hand on a set of cross-cloud services and will promise a common experience for users and developers alike. As we talked about at Supercloud '22, VMware kind of wants to have its cake, eat it too, and lose weight. And by that, we mean that it will not only abstract the underlying primitives of each of the individual clouds, but if developers want access to them, they will allow that and actually facilitate that. Now, we don't expect VMware to use the term Supercloud, but it will be a cross-cloud multi-cloud services model that they put forth, we think, at VMworld Explore. With IaaS comprising compute, storage, and networking, a very strong emphasis, we believe, on security, of course, a governance and a comprehensive set of data protection services. Now, very importantly, we believe Tanzu will play a leading role in any announcements this coming week, as a purpose-built PaaS layer, specifically designed to create a common experience for cross clouds for data and application services. This, we believe, will be VMware's most significant offering to date in cross-cloud services. And it will position VMware to be a leader in what we call Supercloud. Now, while it remains to be seen what Broadcom exactly intends to do with VMware, we've speculated, others have speculated. We think this Supercloud is a substantial market opportunity generally and for VMware specifically. Look, if you don't own a public cloud, and very few companies do, in the tech business, we believe you better be supporting the build out of superclouds or building a supercloud yourself on top of hyperscale infrastructure. And we believe that as cloud matures, hyperscalers will increasingly I cross cloud services as an opportunity. We asked David Floyer to take a stab at a market model for super cloud. He's really good at these types of things. What he did is he took the known players in cloud and estimated their IaaS and PaaS cloud services, their total revenue, and then took a percentage. So this is super set of just the public cloud and the hyperscalers. And then what he did is he took a percentage to fit the Supercloud definition, as we just shared above. He then added another 20% on top to cover the long tail of Other. Other over time is most likely going to grow to let's say 30%. That's kind of how these markets work. Okay, so this is obviously an estimate, but it's an informed estimate by an individual who has done this many, many times and is pretty well respected in these types of forecasts, these long term forecasts. Now, by the definition we just shared, Supercloud revenue was estimated at about $3 billion in 2022 worldwide, growing to nearly $80 billion by 2030. Now remember, there's not one Supercloud market. It comprises a bunch of purpose-built superclouds that solve a specific problem. But the common attribute is it's built on top of hyperscale infrastructure. So overall, cloud services, including Supercloud, peak by the end of the decade. But Supercloud continues to grow and will take a higher percentage of the cloud market. The reasoning here is that the market will change and compute, will increasingly become distributed and embedded into edge devices, such as automobiles and robots and factory equipment, et cetera, and not necessarily be a discreet... I mean, it still will be, of course, but it's not going to be as much of a discrete component that is consumed via services like EZ2, that will mature. And this will be a key shift to watch in spending dynamics and really importantly, computing economics, the things we've talked about around arm and edge and AI inferencing and new low cost computing architectures at the edge. We're talking not the near edge, like, Lowes and Home Depot, we're talking far edge and embedded devices. Now, whether this becomes a seamless part of Supercloud remains to be seen. Look, if that's how we see it, the current and the future state of Supercloud, and we're committed to keeping the discussion going with an inclusive model that gathers input from all parts of the industry. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Morrison, who's on production, and he also manages the podcast. Ken Schiffman, as well, is on production in our Boston office. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they help us get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hoffe is our editor in chief over at Silicon Angle and does some helpful editing. Thank you, all. Remember these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis Podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me directly at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @Dvellante or comment on our LinkedIn posts. Please do check out etr.ai. They've got some great enterprise survey research. So please go there and poke around, And if you need any assistance, let them know. This is Dave Vellante for the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (lively music)
SUMMARY :
From the Cube studios and subtracts the reds from the greens.
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Breaking Analysis: What we hope to learn at Supercloud22
>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The term Supercloud is somewhat new, but the concepts behind it have been bubbling for years, early last decade when NIST put forth a definition of cloud computing it said services had to be accessible over a public network essentially cutting the on-prem crowd out of the cloud conversation. Now a guy named Chuck Hollis, who was a field CTO at EMC at the time and a prolific blogger objected to that criterion and laid out his vision for what he termed a private cloud. Now, in that post, he showed a workload running both on premises and in a public cloud sharing the underlying resources in an automated and seamless manner. What later became known more broadly as hybrid cloud that vision as we now know, really never materialized, and we were left with multi-cloud sets of largely incompatible and disconnected cloud services running in separate silos. The point is what Hollis laid out, IE the ability to abstract underlying infrastructure complexity and run workloads across multiple heterogeneous estates with an identical experience is what super cloud is all about. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon cube insights powered by ETR and this breaking analysis. We share what we hope to learn from super cloud 22 next week, next Tuesday at 9:00 AM Pacific. The community is gathering for Supercloud 22 an inclusive pilot symposium hosted by theCUBE and made possible by VMware and other founding partners. It's a one day single track event with more than 25 speakers digging into the architectural, the technical, structural and business aspects of Supercloud. This is a hybrid event with a live program in the morning running out of our Palo Alto studio and pre-recorded content in the afternoon featuring industry leaders, technologists, analysts and investors up and down the technology stack. Now, as I said up front the seeds of super cloud were sewn early last decade. After the very first reinvent we published our Amazon gorilla post, that scene in the upper right corner here. And we talked about how to differentiate from Amazon and form ecosystems around industries and data and how the cloud would change IT permanently. And then up in the upper left we put up a post on the old Wikibon Wiki. Yeah, it used to be a Wiki. Check out my hair by the way way no gray, that's how long ago this was. And we talked about in that post how to compete in the Amazon economy. And we showed a graph of how IT economics were changing. And cloud services had marginal economics that looked more like software than hardware at scale. And this would reset, we said opportunities for both technology sellers and buyers for the next 20 years. And this came into sharper focus in the ensuing years culminating in a milestone post by Greylock's Jerry Chen called Castles in the Cloud. It was an inspiration and catalyst for us using the term Supercloud in John Furrier's post prior to reinvent 2021. So we started to flesh out this idea of Supercloud where companies of all types build services on top of hyperscale infrastructure and across multiple clouds, going beyond multicloud 1.0, if you will, which was really a symptom, as we said, many times of multi-vendor at least that's what we argued. And despite its fuzzy definition, it resonated with people because they knew something was brewing, Keith Townsend the CTO advisor, even though he frankly, wasn't a big fan of the buzzy nature of the term Supercloud posted this awesome Blackboard on Twitter take a listen to how he framed it. Please play the clip. >> Is VMware the right company to make the super cloud work, term that Wikibon came up with to describe the taking of discreet services. So it says RDS from AWS, cloud compute engines from GCP and authentication from Azure to build SaaS applications or enterprise applications that connect back to your data center, is VMware's cross cloud vision 'cause it is just a vision today, the right approach. Or should you be looking towards companies like HashiCorp to provide this overall capability that we all agree, or maybe you don't that we need in an enterprise comment below your thoughts. >> So I really like that Keith has deep practitioner knowledge and lays out a couple of options. I especially like the examples he uses of cloud services. He recognizes the need for cross cloud services and he notes this capability is aspirational today. Remember this was eight or nine months ago and he brings HashiCorp into the conversation as they're one of the speakers at Supercloud 22 and he asks the community, what they think, the thing is we're trying to really test out this concept and people like Keith are instrumental as collaborators. Now I'm sure you're not surprised to hear that mot everyone is on board with the Supercloud meme, in particular Charles Fitzgerald has been a wonderful collaborator just by his hilarious criticisms of the concept. After a couple of super cloud posts, Charles put up his second rendition of "Supercloudifragilisticexpialidoucious". I mean, it's just beautiful, but to boot, he put up this picture of Baghdad Bob asking us to just stop, Bob's real name is Mohamed Said al-Sahaf. He was the minister of propaganda for Sadam Husein during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And he made these outrageous claims of, you know US troops running in fear and putting down their arms and so forth. So anyway, Charles laid out several frankly very helpful critiques of Supercloud which has led us to really advance the definition and catalyze the community's thinking on the topic. Now, one of his issues and there are many is we said a prerequisite of super cloud was a super PaaS layer. Gartner's Lydia Leong chimed in saying there were many examples of successful PaaS vendors built on top of a hyperscaler some having the option to run in more than one cloud provider. But the key point we're trying to explore is the degree to which that PaaS layer is purpose built for a specific super cloud function. And not only runs in more than one cloud provider, Lydia but runs across multiple clouds simultaneously creating an identical developer experience irrespective of a state. Now, maybe that's what Lydia meant. It's hard to say from just a tweet and she's a sharp lady, so, and knows more about that market, that PaaS market, than I do. But to the former point at Supercloud 22, we have several examples. We're going to test. One is Oracle and Microsoft's recent announcement to run database services on OCI and Azure, making them appear as one rather than use an off the shelf platform. Oracle claims to have developed a capability for developers specifically built to ensure high performance low latency, and a common experience for developers across clouds. Another example we're going to test is Snowflake. I'll be interviewing Benoit Dageville co-founder of Snowflake to understand the degree to which Snowflake's recent announcement of an application development platform is perfect built, purpose built for the Snowflake data cloud. Is it just a plain old pass, big whoop as Lydia claims or is it something new and innovative, by the way we invited Charles Fitz to participate in Supercloud 22 and he decline saying in addition to a few other somewhat insulting things there's definitely interesting new stuff brewing that isn't traditional cloud or SaaS but branding at all super cloud doesn't help either. Well, indeed, we agree with part of that and we'll see if it helps advanced thinking and helps customers really plan for the future. And that's why Supercloud 22 has going to feature some of the best analysts in the business in The Great Supercloud Debate. In addition to Keith Townsend and Maribel Lopez of Lopez research and Sanjeev Mohan from former Gartner analyst and principal at SanjMo participated in this session. Now we don't want to mislead you. We don't want to imply that these analysts are hopping on the super cloud bandwagon but they're more than willing to go through the thought experiment and mental exercise. And, we had a great conversation that you don't want to miss. Maribel Lopez had what I thought was a really excellent way to think about this. She used TCP/IP as an historical example, listen to what she said. >> And Sanjeev Mohan has some excellent thoughts on the feasibility of an open versus de facto standard getting us to the vision of Supercloud, what's possible and what's likely now, again, I don't want to imply that these analysts are out banging the Supercloud drum. They're not necessarily doing that, but they do I think it's fair to say believe that something new is bubbling and whether it's called Supercloud or multicloud 2.0 or cross cloud services or whatever name you choose it's not multicloud of the 2010s and we chose Supercloud. So our goal here is to advance the discussion on what's next in cloud and Supercloud is meant to be a term to describe that future of cloud and specifically the cloud opportunities that can be built on top of hyperscale, compute, storage, networking machine learning, and other services at scale. And that is why we posted this piece on Answering the top 10 questions about Supercloud. Many of which were floated by Charles Fitzgerald and others in the community. Why does the industry need another term what's really new and different? And what is hype? What specific problems does Supercloud solve? What are the salient characteristics of Supercloud? What's different beyond multicloud? What is a super pass? Is it necessary to have a Supercloud? How will applications evolve on superclouds? What workloads will run? All these questions will be addressed in detail as a way to advance the discussion and help practitioners and business people understand what's real today. And what's possible with cloud in the near future. And one other question we'll address is who will build super clouds? And what new entrance we can expect. This is an ETR graphic that we showed in a previous episode of breaking analysis, and it lays out some of the companies we think are building super clouds or in a position to do so, by the way the Y axis shows net score or spending velocity and the X axis depicts presence in the ETR survey of more than 1200 respondents. But the key callouts to this slide in addition to some of the smaller firms that aren't yet showing up in the ETR data like Chaossearch and Starburst and Aviatrix and Clumio but the really interesting additions are industry players Walmart with Azure, Capital one and Goldman Sachs with AWS, Oracle, with Cerner. These we think are early examples, bubbling up of industry clouds that will eventually become super clouds. So we'll explore these and other trends to get the community's input on how this will all play out. These are the things we hope you'll take away from Supercloud 22. And we have an amazing lineup of experts to answer your question. Technologists like Kit Colbert, Adrian Cockcroft, Mariana Tessel, Chris Hoff, Will DeForest, Ali Ghodsi, Benoit Dageville, Muddu Sudhakar and many other tech athletes, investors like Jerry Chen and In Sik Rhee the analyst we featured earlier, Paula Hansen talking about go to market in a multi-cloud world Gee Rittenhouse talking about cloud security, David McJannet, Bhaskar Gorti of Platform9 and many, many more. And of course you, so please go to theCUBE.net and register for Supercloud 22, really lightweight reg. We're not doing this for lead gen. We're doing it for collaboration. If you sign in you can get the chat and ask questions in real time. So don't miss this inaugural event Supercloud 22 on August 9th at 9:00 AM Pacific. We'll see you there. Okay. That's it for today. Thanks for watching. Thank you to Alex Myerson who's on production and manages the podcast. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight. They help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE. Does some really wonderful editing. Thank you to all. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen, just search breaking analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and Siliconangle.com. And you can email me at David.Vellantesiliconangle.com or DM me at Dvellante, comment on my LinkedIn post. Please do check out ETR.AI for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. And we'll see you next week in Palo Alto at Supercloud 22 or next time on breaking analysis. (calm music)
SUMMARY :
This is breaking analysis and buyers for the next 20 years. Is VMware the right company is the degree to which that PaaS layer and specifically the cloud opportunities
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Breaking Analysis: AWS re:Inforce marks a summer checkpoint on cybersecurity
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> After a two year hiatus, AWS re:Inforce is back on as an in-person event in Boston next week. Like the All-Star break in baseball, re:Inforce gives us an opportunity to evaluate the cyber security market overall, the state of cloud security and cross cloud security and more specifically what AWS is up to in the sector. Welcome to this week's Wikibon cube insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis we'll share our view of what's changed since our last cyber update in May. We'll look at the macro environment, how it's impacting cyber security plays in the market, what the ETR data tells us and what to expect at next week's AWS re:Inforce. We start this week with a checkpoint from Breaking Analysis contributor and stock trader Chip Simonton. We asked for his assessment of the market generally in cyber stocks specifically. So we'll summarize right here. We've kind of moved on from a narrative of the sky is falling to one where the glass is half empty you know, and before today's big selloff it was looking more and more like glass half full. The SNAP miss has dragged down many of the big names that comprise the major indices. You know, earning season as always brings heightened interest and this time we're seeing many cross currents. It starts as usual with the banks and the money centers. With the exception of JP Morgan the numbers were pretty good according to Simonton. Investment banks were not so great with Morgan and Goldman missing estimates but in general, pretty positive outlooks. But the market also shrugged off IBM's growth. And of course, social media because of SNAP is getting hammered today. The question is no longer recession or not but rather how deep the recession will be. And today's PMI data was the weakest since the start of the pandemic. Bond yields continue to weaken and there's a growing consensus that Fed tightening may be over after September as commodity prices weaken. Now gas prices of course are still high but they've come down. Tesla, Nokia and AT&T all indicated that supply issues were getting better which is also going to help with inflation. So it's no shock that the NASDAQ has done pretty well as beaten down as tech stocks started to look oversold you know, despite today's sell off. But AT&T and Verizon, they blamed their misses in part on people not paying their bills on time. SNAP's huge miss even after guiding lower and then refusing to offer future guidance took that stock down nearly 40% today and other social media stocks are off on sympathy. Meta and Google were off, you know, over 7% at midday. I think at one point hit 14% down and Google, Meta and Twitter have all said they're freezing new hires. So we're starting to see according to Simonton for the first time in a long time, the lower income, younger generation really feeling the pinch of inflation. Along of course with struggling families that have to choose food and shelter over discretionary spend. Now back to the NASDAQ for a moment. As we've been reporting back in mid-June and NASDAQ was off nearly 33% year to date and has since rallied. It's now down about 25% year to date as of midday today. But as I say, it had been, you know much deeper back in early June. But it's broken that downward trend that we talked about where the highs are actually lower and the lows are lower. That's started to change for now anyway. We'll see if it holds. But chip stocks, software stocks, and of course the cyber names have broken those down trends and have been trading above their 50 day moving averages for the first time in around four months. And again, according to Simonton, we'll see if that holds. If it does, that's a positive sign. Now remember on June 24th, we recorded a Breaking Analysis and talked about Qualcomm trading at a 12 X multiple with an implied 15% growth rate. On that day the stock was 124 and it surpassed 155 earlier this month. That was a really good call by Simonton. So looking at some of the cyber players here SailPoint is of course the anomaly with the Thoma Bravo 7 billion acquisition of the company holding that stock up. But the Bug ETF of basket of cyber stocks has definitely improved. When we last reported on cyber in May, CrowdStrike was off 23% year to date. It's now off 4%. Palo Alto has held steadily. Okta is still underperforming its peers as it works through the fallout from the breach and the ingestion of its Auth0 acquisition. Meanwhile, Zscaler and SentinelOne, those high flyers are still well off year to date, with Ping Identity and CyberArk not getting hit as hard as their valuations hadn't run up as much. But virtually all these tech stocks generally in cyber issues specifically, they've been breaking their down trend. So it will now come down to earnings guidance in the coming months. But the SNAP reaction is quite stunning. I mean, the environment is slowing, we know that. Ad spending gets cut in that type of market, we know that too. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise to anyone but as Chip Simonton says, this shows that sellers are still in control here. So it's going to take a little while to work through that despite the positive signs that we're seeing. Okay. We also turned to our friend Eric Bradley from ETR who follows these markets quite closely. He frequently interviews CISOs on his program, on his round tables. So we asked to get his take and here's what ETR is saying. Again, as we've reported while CIOs and IT buyers have tempered spending expectations since December and early January when they called for an 8% plus spending growth, they're still expecting a six to seven percent uptick in spend this year. So that's pretty good. Security remains the number one priority and also is the highest ranked sector in the ETR data set when you measure in terms of pervasiveness in the study. Within security endpoint detection and extended detection and response along with identity and privileged account management are the sub-sectors with the most spending velocity. And when you exclude Microsoft which is just dominant across the board in so many sectors, CrowdStrike has taken over the number one spot in terms of spending momentum in ETR surveys with CyberArk and Tanium showing very strong as well. Okta has seen a big dropoff in net score from 54% last survey to 45% in July as customers maybe put a pause on new Okta adoptions. That clearly shows in the survey. We'll talk about that in a moment. Look Okta still elevated in terms of spending momentum, but it doesn't have the dominant leadership position it once held in spend velocity. Year on year, according to ETR, Tenable and Elastic are seeing the biggest jumps in spending momentum, with SailPoint, Tanium, Veronis, CrowdStrike and Zscaler seeing the biggest jump in new adoptions since the last survey. Now on the downside, SonicWall, Symantec, Trellic which is McAfee, Barracuda and TrendMicro are seeing the highest percentage of defections and replacements. Let's take a deeper look at what the ETR data tells us about the cybersecurity space. This is a popular view that we like to share with net score or spending momentum on the Y axis and overlap or pervasiveness in the data on the X axis. It's a measure of presence in the data set we used to call it market share. With the data, the dot positions, you see that little inserted table, that's how the dots are plotted. And it's important to note that this data is filtered for firms with at least 100 Ns in the survey. That's why some of the other ones that we mentioned might have dropped off. The red dotted line at 40% that indicates highly elevated spending momentum and there are several firms above that mark including of course, Microsoft, which is literally off the charts in both dimensions in the upper right. It's quite incredible actually. But for the rest of the pack, CrowdStrike has now taken back its number one net score position in the ETR survey. And CyberArk and Okta and Zscaler, CloudFlare and Auth0 now Okta through the acquisition, are all above the 40% mark. You can stare at the data at your leisure but I'll just point out, make three quick points. First Palo Alto continues to impress and as steady as she goes. Two, it's a very crowded market still and it's complicated space. And three there's lots of spending in different pockets. This market has too many tools and will continue to consolidate. Now I'd like to drill into a couple of firms net scores and pick out some of the pure plays that are leading the way. This series of charts shows the net score or spending velocity or granularity for Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler and CyberArk. Four of the top pure plays in the ETR survey that also have over a hundred responses. Now the colors represent the following. Bright red is defections. We're leaving the platform. The pink is we're spending less, meaning we're spending 6% or worse. The gray is flat spend plus or minus 5%. The forest green is spending more, i.e, 6% or more and the lime green is we're adding the platform new. That red dotted line at the 40% net score mark is the same elevated level that we like to talk about. All four are above that target. Now that blue line you see there is net score. The yellow line is pervasiveness in the data. The data shown in each bar goes back 10 surveys all the way back to January 2020. First I want to call out that all four again are seeing down trends in spending momentum with the whole market. That's that blue line. They're seeing that this quarter, again, the market is off overall. Everybody is kind of seeing that down trend for the most part. Very few exceptions. Okta is being hurt by fewer new additions which is why we highlighted in red, that red dotted area, that square that we put there in the upper right of that Okta bar. That lime green, new ads are off as well. And the gray for Okta, flat spending is noticeably up. So it feels like people are pausing a bit and taking a breather for Okta. And as we said earlier, perhaps with the breach earlier this year and the ingestion of Auth0 acquisition the company is seeing some friction in its business. Now, having said that, you can see Okta's yellow line or presence in the data set, continues to grow. So it's a good proxy from market presence. So Okta remains a leader in identity. So again, I'll let you stare at the data if you want at your leisure, but despite some concerns on declining momentum, notice this very little red at these companies when it comes to the ETR survey data. Now one more data slide which brings us to our four star cyber firms. We started a tradition a few years ago where we sorted the ETR data by net score. That's the left hand side of this graphic. And we sorted by shared end or presence in the data set. That's the right hand side. And again, we filtered by companies with at least 100 N and oh, by the way we've excluded Microsoft just to level the playing field. The red dotted line signifies the top 10. If a company cracks the top 10 in both spending momentum and presence, we give them four stars. So Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, Fortinet and Zscaler all made the cut this time. Now, as we pointed out in May if you combined Auth0 with Okta, they jumped to the number two on the right hand chart in terms of presence. And they would lead the pure plays there although it would bring down Okta's net score somewhat, as you can see, Auth0's net score is lower than Okta's. So when you combine them it would drag that down a little bit but it would give them bigger presence in the data set. Now, the other point we'll make is that Proofpoint and Splunk both dropped off the four star list this time as they both saw marked declines in net score or spending velocity. They both got four stars last quarter. Okay. We're going to close on what to expect at re:Inforce this coming week. Re:Inforce, if you don't know, is AWS's security event. They first held it in Boston back in 2019. It's dedicated to cloud security. The past two years has been virtual and they announced that reinvent that it would take place in Houston in June, which everybody said, that's crazy. Who wants to go to Houston in June and turns out nobody did so they postponed the event, thankfully. And so now they're back in Boston, starting on Monday. Not that it's going to be much cooler in Boston. Anyway, Steven Schmidt had been the face of AWS security at all these previous events as the Chief Information Security Officer. Now he's dropped the I from his title and is now the Chief Security Officer at Amazon. So he went with Jesse to the mothership. Presumably he dropped the I because he deals with physical security now too, like at the warehouses. Not that he didn't have to worry about physical security at the AWS data centers. I don't know. Anyway, he and CJ Moses who is now the new CISO at AWS will be keynoting along with some others including MongoDB's Chief Information Security Officer. So that should be interesting. Now, if you've been following AWS you'll know they like to break things down into, you know, a couple of security categories. Identity, detection and response, data protection slash privacy slash GRC which is governance, risk and compliance, and we would expect a lot more talk this year on container security. So you're going to hear also product updates and they like to talk about how they're adding value to services and try to help, they try to help customers understand how to apply services. Things like GuardDuty, which is their threat detection that has machine learning in it. They'll talk about Security Hub, which centralizes views and alerts and automates security checks. They have a service called Detective which does root cause analysis, and they have tools to mitigate denial of service attacks. And they'll talk about security in Nitro which isolates a lot of the hardware resources. This whole idea of, you know, confidential computing which is, you know, AWS will point out it's kind of become a buzzword. They take it really seriously. I think others do as well, like Arm. We've talked about that on previous Breaking Analysis. And again, you're going to hear something on container security because it's the hottest thing going right now and because AWS really still serves developers and really that's what they're trying to do. They're trying to enable developers to design security in but you're also going to hear a lot of best practice advice from AWS i.e, they'll share the AWS dogfooding playbooks with you for their own security practices. AWS like all good security practitioners, understand that the keys to a successful security strategy and implementation don't start with the technology, rather they're about the methods and practices that you apply to solve security threats and a top to bottom cultural approach to security awareness, designing security into systems, that's really where the developers come in, and training for continuous improvements. So you're going to get heavy doses of really strong best practices and guidance and you know, some good preaching. You're also going to hear and see a lot of partners. They'll be very visible at re:Inforce. AWS is all about ecosystem enablement and AWS is going to host close to a hundred security partners at the event. This is key because AWS doesn't do it all. Interestingly, they don't even show up in the ETR security taxonomy, right? They just sort of imply that it's built in there even though they have a lot of security tooling. So they have to apply the shared responsibility model not only with customers but partners as well. They need an ecosystem to fill gaps and provide deeper problem solving with more mature and deeper security tooling. And you're going to hear a lot of positivity around how great cloud security is and how it can be done well. But the truth is this stuff is still incredibly complicated and challenging for CISOs and practitioners who are understaffed when it comes to top talent. Now, finally, theCUBE will be at re:Inforce in force. John Furry and I will be hosting two days of broadcast so please do stop by if you're in Boston and say hello. We'll have a little chat, we'll share some data and we'll share our overall impressions of the event, the market, what we're seeing, what we're learning, what we're worried about in this dynamic space. Okay. That's it for today. Thanks for watching. Thanks to Alex Myerson, who is on production and manages the podcast. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they helped get the word out on social and in our newsletters and Rob Hoff is our Editor in Chief over at siliconangle.com. You did some great editing. Thank you all. Remember all these episodes they're available, this podcast. Wherever you listen, all you do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me by emailing avid.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante, or comment on my LinkedIn post and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching and we'll see you in Boston next week if you're there or next time on Breaking Analysis (soft music)
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Breaking Analysis: Answering the top 10 questions about supercloud
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vallante. >> Welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. As we exited the isolation economy last year, Supercloud is a term that we introduced to describe something new that was happening in the world of cloud. In this "Breaking Analysis," we address the 10 most frequently asked questions we get around Supercloud. Okay, let's review these frequently asked questions on Supercloud that we're going to try to answer today. Look at an industry that's full of hype and buzzwords. Why the hell does anyone need a new term? Aren't hyperscalers building out Superclouds? We'll try to answer why the term Supercloud connotes something different from hyperscale clouds. And we'll talk about the problems that Superclouds solve specifically, and we'll further define the critical aspects of a Supercloud architecture. We often get asked, "Isn't this just multi-cloud?" Well, we don't think so, and we'll explain why in this "Breaking Analysis." Now, in an earlier episode, we introduced the notion of super PaaS. Well, isn't a plain vanilla PaaS already a super PaaS? Again, we don't think so, and we'll explain why. Who will actually build and who are the players currently building Superclouds? What workloads and services will run on Superclouds? And eight A or number nine, what are some examples that we can share of Supercloud? And finally, we'll answer what you can expect next from us on Supercloud. Okay, let's get started. Why do we need another buzzword? Well, late last year ahead of re:Invent, we were inspired by a post from Jerry Chen called castles in the cloud. Now, in that blog post, he introduced the idea that there were submarkets emerging in cloud that presented opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs. That the cloud wasn't going to suck the hyperscalers, weren't going to suck all the value out of the industry. And so we introduced this notion of Supercloud to describe what we saw as a value layer emerging above the hyperscalers CAPEX gift, we sometimes call it. Now, it turns out that we weren't the only ones using the term, as both Cornell and MIT, have used the phrase in somewhat similar, but different contexts. The point is, something new was happening in the AWS and other ecosystems. It was more than IS and PaaS, and wasn't just SaaS running in the cloud. It was a new architecture that integrates infrastructure, platform and software as services, to solve new problems that the cloud vendors, in our view, weren't addressing by themselves. It seemed to us that the ecosystem was pursuing opportunities across clouds that went beyond conventional implementations of multi-cloud. And we felt there was a structural change going on at the industry level. The Supercloud metaphorically was highlighting. So that's the background on why we felt a new catch phrase was warranted. Love it or hate it, it's memorable and it's what we chose. Now, to that last point about structural industry transformation. Andy Rapaport is sometimes and often credited with identifying the shift from the vertically integrated IBM mainframe era to the fragmented PC microprocesor based era in his HBR article in 1991. In fact, it was David Moschella, who at the time was an IDC analyst who first introduced the concept in 1987, four years before Rapaport's article was published. Moschella saw that it was clear that Intel, Microsoft, Seagate and others would replace the system vendors and put that forth in a graphic that looked similar to the first two on this chart. We don't have to review the shift from IBM as the center of the industry to Wintel. That's well understood. What isn't as well known or accepted is what Moschella put out in his 2018 book called "Seeing Digital" which introduced the idea of the matrix that's shown on the right hand side of this chart. Moschella posited that new services were emerging, built on top of the internet and hyperscale clouds that would integrate other innovations and would define the next era of computing. He used the term matrix, because the conceptual depiction included, not only horizontal technology rows, like the cloud and the internet, but for the first time included connected industry verticals, the columns in this chart. Moschella pointed out that, whereas historically, industry verticals had a closed value chain or stack and ecosystem of R&D and production and manufacturing and distribution. And if you were in that industry, the expertise within that vertical generally stayed within that vertical and was critical to success. But because of digital and data, for the first time, companies were able to traverse industries jump across industries and compete because data enabled them to do that. Examples, Amazon and content, payments, groceries, Apple and payments, and content and so forth. There are many examples. Data was now this unifying enabler and this marked a change in the structure of the technology landscape. And Supercloud is meant to imply more than running in hyperscale clouds. Rather, it's the combination of multiple technologies, enabled by cloud scale with new industry participants from those verticals; financial services, and healthcare, and manufacturing, energy, media, and virtually all and any industry. Kind of an extension of every company is a software company. Basically, every company now has the opportunity to build their own cloud or Supercloud. And we'll come back to that. Let's first address what's different about Superclouds relative to hyperscale clouds. Now, this one's pretty straightforward and obvious, I think. Hyperscale clouds, they're walled gardens where they want your data in their cloud and they want to keep you there. Sure, every cloud player realizes that not all data will go to their particular cloud. So they're meeting customers where their data lives with initiatives like Amazon Outposts and Azure Arc and Google Antos. But at the end of the day, the more homogeneous they can make their environments, the better control, security, costs, and performance they can deliver. The more complex the environment, the more difficult it is to deliver on their brand promises. And, of course, the less margin that's left for them to capture. Will the hyperscalers get more serious about cross cloud services? Maybe, but they have plenty of work to do within their own clouds and within enabling their own ecosystems. They have a long way to go, a lot of runway. So let's talk about specifically, what problems Superclouds solve. We've all seen the stats from IDC or Gartner or whomever, that customers on average use more than one cloud, two clouds, three clouds, five clouds, 20 clouds. And we know these clouds operate in disconnected silos for the most part. And that's a problem, because each cloud requires different skills, because the development environment is different as is the operating environment. They have different APIs, different primitives, and different management tools that are optimized for each respective hyperscale cloud. Their functions and value props don't extend to their competitors' clouds for the most part. Why would they? As a result, there's friction when moving between different clouds. It's hard to share data. It's hard to move work. It's hard to secure and govern data. It's hard to enforce organizational edicts and policies across these clouds and on-prem. Supercloud is an architecture designed to create a single environment that enables management of workloads and data across clouds in an effort to take out complexity, accelerate application development, streamline operations, and share data safely, irrespective of location. It's pretty straightforward, but non-trivial, which is why I always ask a company's CEO and executives if stock buybacks and dividends will yield as much return as building out Superclouds that solve really specific and hard problems and create differential value. Okay, let's dig a bit more into the architectural aspects of Supercloud. In other words, what are the salient attributes of Supercloud? So, first and foremost, a Supercloud runs a set of specific services designed to solve a unique problem, and it can do so in more than one cloud. Superclouds leverage the underlying cloud native tooling of a hyperscale cloud, but they're optimized for a specific objective that aligns with the problem that they're trying to solve. For example, Supercloud might be optimized for lowest cost or lowest latency or sharing data or governing or securing that data or higher performance for networking, for example. But the point is, the collection of services that is being delivered is focused on a unique value proposition that is not being delivered by the hyperscalers across clouds. A Supercloud abstracts the underlying and siloed primitives of the native PaaS layer from the hyperscale cloud, and then using its own specific platform as a service tooling, creates a common experience across clouds for developers and users. And it does so in the most efficient manner, meaning it has the metadata knowledge and management capabilities that can optimize for latency, bandwidth, or recovery or data sovereignty, or whatever unique value that Supercloud is delivering for the specific use case in their domain. And a Supercloud comprises a super PaaS capability that allows ecosystem partners through APIs to add incremental value on top of the Supercloud platform to fill gaps, accelerate features, and of course, innovate. The services can be infrastructure related, they could be application services, they could be data services, security services, user services, et cetera, designed and packaged to bring unique value to customers. Again, that hyperscalers are not delivering across clouds or on premises. Okay, so another common question we get is, "Isn't that just multi-cloud?" And what we'd say to that is yeah, "Yes, but no." You can call it multi-cloud 2.0, if you want. If you want to use, it's kind of a commonly used rubric. But as Dell's Chuck Whitten proclaimed at Dell Technologies World this year, multi-cloud, by design, is different than multi-cloud by default. Meaning, to date, multi-cloud has largely been a symptom of what we've called multi-vendor or of M&A. You buy a company and they happen to use Google cloud. And so you bring it in. And when you look at most so-called multi-cloud implementations, you see things like an on-prem stack, which is wrapped in a container and hosted on a specific cloud. Or increasingly, a technology vendor has done the work of building a cloud native version of their stack and running it on a specific cloud. But historically, it's been a unique experience within each cloud, with virtually no connection between the cloud silos. Supercloud sets out to build incremental value across clouds and above hyperscale CAPEX that goes beyond cloud compatibility within each cloud. So, if you want to call it multi-cloud 2.0, that's fine, but we chose to call it Supercloud. Okay, so at this point you may be asking, "Well isn't PaaS already a version of Supercloud?" And again, we would say, "No." That Supercloud and its corresponding super PaaS layer, which is a prerequisite, gives the freedom to store, process, and manage and secure and connect islands of data across a continuum with a common experience across clouds. And the services offered are specific to that Supercloud and will vary by each offering. OpenShift, for example, can be used to construct a super PaaS, but in and of itself, isn't a super PaaS, it's generic. A super PaaS might be developed to support, for instance, ultra low latency database work. It would unlikely, again, taking the OpenShift example, it's unlikely that off the shelf OpenShift would be used to develop such a low latency, super PaaS layer for ultra low latency database work. The point is, Supercloud and its inherent super PaaS will be optimized to solve specific problems like that low latency example for distributed databases or fast backup in recovery for data protection and ransomware, or data sharing or data governance. Highly specific use cases that the Supercloud is designed to solve for. Okay, another question we often get is, "Who has a Supercloud today and who's building a Supercloud and who are the contenders?" Well, most companies that consider themselves cloud players will, we believe, be building or are building Superclouds. Here's a common ETR graphic that we like to show with net score or spending momentum on the Y axis, and overlap or pervasiveness in the ETR surveys on the X axis. And we've randomly chosen a number of players that we think are in the Supercloud mix. And we've included the hyperscalers because they are enablers. Now, remember, this is a spectrum of maturity. It's a maturity model. And we've added some of those industry players that we see building Superclouds like Capital One, Goldman Sachs, Walmart. This is in deference to Moschella's observation around the matrix and the industry structural changes that are going on. This goes back to every company being a software company. And rather than pattern match and outdated SaaS model, we see new industry structures emerging where software and data and tools specific to an industry will lead the next wave of innovation and bring in new value that traditional technology companies aren't going to solve. And the hyperscalers aren't going to solve. We've talked a lot about Snowflake's data cloud as an example of Supercloud. After being at Snowflake Summit, we're more convinced than ever that they're headed in this direction. VMware is clearly going after cross cloud services, perhaps creating a new category. Basically, every large company we see either pursuing Supercloud initiatives or thinking about it. Dell showed Project Alpine at Dell Tech World. That's a Supercloud. Snowflake introducing a new application development capability based on their super PaaS, our term, of course. They don't use the phrase. Mongo, Couchbase, Nutanix, Pure Storage, Veeam, CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler. Yeah, all of those guys. Yes, Cisco and HPE. Even though on theCUBE at HPE Discover, Fidelma Russo said on theCUBE, she wasn't a fan of cloaking mechanisms. (Dave laughing) But then we talked to HPE's head of storage services, Omer Asad, and he's clearly headed in the direction that we would consider Supercloud. Again, those cross cloud services, of course, their emphasis is connecting as well on-prem. That single experience, which traditionally has not existed with multi-cloud or hybrid. And we're seeing the emergence of smaller companies like Aviatrix and Starburst and Clumio and others that are building versions of Superclouds that solve for a specific problem for their customers. Even ISVs like Adobe, ADP, we've talked to UiPath. They seem to be looking at new ways to go beyond the SaaS model and add value within their cloud ecosystem, specifically around data as part of their and their customer's digital transformations. So yeah, pretty much every tech vendor with any size or momentum, and new industry players are coming out of hiding and competing, building Superclouds that look a lot like Moschella's matrix, with machine intelligence and blockchains and virtual realities and gaming, all enabled by the internet and hyperscale cloud CAPEX. So it's moving fast and it's the future in our opinion. So don't get too caught up in the past or you'll be left behind. Okay, what about examples? We've given a number in the past but let's try to be a little bit more specific. Here are a few we've selected and we're going to answer the two questions in one section here. What workloads and services will run in Superclouds and what are some examples? Let's start with analytics. Our favorite example of Snowflake. It's one of the furthest along with its data cloud, in our view. It's a Supercloud optimized for data sharing and governance, and query performance, and security, and ecosystem enablement. When you do things inside of that data cloud, what we call a super data cloud. Again, our term, not theirs. You can do things that you could not do in a single cloud. You can't do this with Redshift. You can't do this with SQL server. And they're bringing new data types now with merging analytics or at least accommodate analytics and transaction type data and bringing open source tooling with things like Apache Iceberg. And so, it ticks the boxes we laid out earlier. I would say that a company like Databricks is also in that mix, doing it, coming at it from a data science perspective trying to create that consistent experience for data scientists and data engineering across clouds. Converge databases, running transaction and analytic workloads is another example. Take a look at what Couchbase is doing with Capella and how it's enabling stretching the cloud to the edge with arm based platforms and optimizing for low latency across clouds, and even out to the edge. Document database workloads, look at Mongo DB. A very developer friendly platform that where the Atlas is moving toward a Supercloud model, running document databases very, very efficiently. How about general purpose workloads? This is where VMware comes into play. Very clearly, there's a need to create a common operating environment across clouds and on-prem and out to the edge. And I say, VMware is hard at work on that, managing and moving workloads and balancing workloads, and being able to recover very quickly across clouds for everyday applications. Network routing, take a look at what Aviatrix is doing across clouds. Industry workloads, we see Capital One. It announced its cost optimization platform for Snowflake, piggybacking on Snowflake's Supercloud or super data cloud. And in our view, it's very clearly going to go after other markets. It's going to test it out with Snowflake, optimizing on AWS, and it's going to expand to other clouds as Snowflake's business and those other clouds grows. Walmart working with Microsoft to create an on-premed Azure experience that's seamless. Yes, that counts, on-prem counts. If you can create that seamless and continuous experience, identical experience from on-prem to a hyperscale cloud, we would include that as a Supercloud. We've written about what Goldman is doing. Again, connecting its on-prem data and software tooling, and other capabilities to AWS for scale. And you can bet dollars to donuts that Oracle will be building a Supercloud in healthcare with its Cerner acquisition. Supercloud is everywhere you look. So I'm sorry, naysayers, it's happening all around us. So what's next? Well, with all the industry buzz and debate about the future, John Furrier and I have decided to host an event in Palo Alto. We're motivated and inspired to further this conversation. And we welcome all points of view, positive, negative, multi-cloud, Supercloud, HyperCloud, all welcome. So theCUBE on Supercloud is coming on August 9th out of our Palo Alto studios. We'll be running a live program on the topic. We've reached out to a number of industry participants; VMware, Snowflake, Confluent, Skyhigh Security, G. Written House's new company, HashiCorp, CloudFlare. We've hit up Red Hat and we expect many of these folks will be in our studios on August 9th. And we've invited a number of industry participants as well that we're excited to have on. From industry, from financial services, from healthcare, from retail, we're inviting analysts, thought leaders, investors. We're going to have more detail in the coming weeks, but for now, if you're interested, please reach out to me or John with how you think you can advance the discussion, and we'll see if we can fit you in. So mark your calendars, stay tuned for more information. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Myerson who handles production and manages the podcast for "Breaking Analysis." And I want to thank Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight. They help get the word out on social and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE, who does a lot of editing and appreciate you posting on SiliconANGLE, Rob. Thanks to all of you. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search, breaking analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me directly at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. Or DM me @DVallante, or comment on my LinkedIn post. And please, do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. We'll be at AWS NYC summit next Tuesday, July 12th. So if you're there, please do stop by and say hello to theCUBE. It's at the Javits Center. This is Dave Vallante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. And we'll see you next time on "Breaking Analysis." (slow music)
SUMMARY :
This is "Breaking Analysis" stretching the cloud to the edge
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Breaking Analysis: Tech Spending Intentions are Holding Despite Macro Concerns
>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Despite fears of inflation, supply chain issues skyrocketing energy and home prices and global instability caused by the Ukraine crisis CIOs and IT buyers continue to expect overall spending to increase more than 6% in 2022. Now, while this is lower than our 8% prediction that we made earlier this year in January, it remains in line with last year's roughly six to 7% growth and is holding firm with the expectations reported by tech executives on the ETR surveys last quarter. Hello and welcome to this week's wiki bond cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis, we'll update you on our latest look at tech spending with a preliminary take from ETR's latest macro drill down survey. We'll share some insights to which vendors have shown the biggest change in spending trajectory. And we'll tap our technical analysts to get a read on what they think it means for technology stocks going forward. The IT spending sentiment among IT buyers remains pretty solid. >> In the past two months, we've had conversations with dozens of CIOs, chief digital officers data executives, IT managers, and application developers, and across the board, they've indicated that for now at least their spending levels remain largely unchanged. The latest ETR drill down data which will share shortly, confirms these anecdotal checks. However, the interpretation of this data it's somewhat nuanced. Part of the reason for the spending levels being you know reasonably strong and holding up is inflation. Stuff costs more so spending levels are higher forcing IT managers to prioritize. Now security remains the number one priority and is less susceptible to cuts, cloud migration, productivity initiatives and other data projects remain top priorities. >> So where are CIO's robbing from Peter to pay Paul to focus on these priorities? Well, we've seen a slight uptick in certain speculative. IT projects being put on hold or frozen for a period of time. And according to ETR survey data we've seen some hiring freezes reported and this is especially notable in the healthcare sector. ETR also surveyed its buyer base to find out where they were adjusting their budgets and the strategies and tactics they were using to do so. Consolidating IT vendors was by far the most cited tactic. Now this makes sense as companies in an effort to negotiate better deals will often forego investments in newer so-called best of breed products and services, and negotiate bundles from larger suppliers. You know, even though they might not be as functional, the buyers >> can get a better deal if they bundle together from one of their larger suppliers. Think Microsoft or a Dell or other, you know, large companies. ETR survey respondents also cited cutting the cloud bill where discretionary spending was in play was another strategy or tactic that they were using. We certainly saw this with some of the largest snowflake customers this past quarter. Where even though they were still growing consumption rapidly certain snowflake customers dialed down their consumption and pushed spending off to future quarters. Now remember in the case of snowflake, anyway, customers negotiate consumption rates and their pricing based on a total commitment over a period of time. So while they may consume less in one quarter, over the lifetime of the contract, snowflake, as do many other cloud companies, have good visibility on the lifetime value of a deal. Now this next chart shows the latest ETR spending expectations among more than 900 respondents. The bars represent spending growth expectations from the periods of December, 2021 that's the gray bars, March of 2022 survey in the blue, and the most recent June data, That's the yellow bar. So you can see spending expectations for the quarter is down slightly in the mid 5% range. But overall for the year expectations remain in the mid 6% range. Now it's down from 8%, 8.3% in December where it looked like 2022 was going to really be a breakout year and have more momentum than even last year. Now, remember this was before Russia invaded Ukraine which occurred in mid-February of this year. So expectations were a little higher. So look, generally speaking CIOs have told us that their CFOs and CEOs have lowered their earnings outlooks and communicated that to Wall Street. They've told us that unless and until these revised forecasts appear at risk, they continue to expect their budget levels to remain pretty constant. Now there's still plenty of momentum and spending velocity on specific vendor platforms. Let's take a look at that. >> This chart shows the companies with the greatest spending momentum as measured by ETRs proprietary net score methodology. Net score essentially measures the net percent of customers spending more on a particular platform. That measurement is shown on the Y axis. The red line there that's inserted that red dotted line at 40%, we consider to be a highly elevated mark. And the green dots are companies in the ETR survey that are near or above that line. The X axis measures the presence in the data set, how much, you know sort of pervasiveness, if you will, is in the data. It's kind of a proxy for market presence. Now, of course we all know Kubernetes is not a company, but it remains an area where organizations are spending lots of resources and time particularly to modernize and mobilize applications. Snowflake remains the company which leads all firms in spending velocity, but as you'll see momentarily, despite its highest position relative to everybody else in the survey, it's still down from its previous levels in the high seventies and low 80% range. AWS is incredibly impressive because it has an elevated level but also a big presence in the data set in the survey. Same with Microsoft, same with ServiceNow which also stands out. And you can see the other smaller vendors like HashiCorp which is increasingly being seen as a strategic cross cloud enabler. They're showing, spending momentum. The RPA vendors you see in there automation anywhere and UI path are in the mix with numerous security companies, CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Netskope, Cloudflare, Tenable Okta, Zscaler Palo Alto networks, Sale Point Fortunate. A big number of cybersecurity firms hovering at or above that 40% mark you can see pure storage remains elevated as do PagerDuty and Coupa. So plenty of good news here, despite the recent tech crash. So that was the good, here's the not so good. So >> there is no 40% line on this chart because all these companies are well below that line. Now this doesn't mean these companies are bad companies. They just don't have the spending velocity of the ones we showed earlier. A good example here is Oracle. Look how they stand out on the X axis with a huge market presence. And Oracle remains an incredibly successful company selling to high end customers and really owning that mission critical data and application space. And remember ETR measures spending activity, but not actual spending dollars. So Oracle is skewed as a result because Oracle customers spend big bucks. But the fact is that Oracle has a large legacy install base that pulls down their growth rates. And that does show up in the ETR survey data. Broadcom is another example. They're one of the most successful companies in the industry, and they're not going after growth at all costs at all. They're going after EBITDA and of course ETR doesn't measure EBIT. So just keep that in mind, as you look at this data. Now another way to look at the data and the survey, is exploring the net score movement over the last period amongst companies. So how are they moving? What's happening to the net score over time. And this chart shows the year over year >> net score change for vendors that participate in at least three sectors within the ETR taxonomy. Remember ETR taxonomy has 12, 15 different segments. So the names above or below the gray dotted line are those companies where the net score has increased or decreased meaningfully. So to the earlier chart, it's all relative, right? Look at Oracle. While having lower net scores has also shown a more meaningful improvement in net score than some of the others, as have SAP and Teradata. Now what's impressive to me here is how AWS, Microsoft, and Google are actually holding that dotted line that gray line pretty well despite their size and the other ironically interesting two data points here are Broadcom and Nutanix. Now Broadcom, of course, as we've reported and dug into, is buying VMware and, and of, of course most customers are concerned about getting hit with higher prices. Once Broadcom takes over. Well Nutanix despite its change in net scores, in a good position potentially to capture some of that VMware business. Just yesterday, I talked to a customer who told me he migrated his entire portfolio off VMware using Nutanix AHV, the Acropolis hypervisor. And that was in an effort to avoid the VTEX specifically. Now this was a smaller customer granted and it's not representative of what I feel is Broadcom's ICP the ideal customer profile, but look, Nutanix should benefit from the Broadcom acquisition. If it can position itself to pick up the business that Broadcom really doesn't want. That kind of bottom of the pyramid. One person's trash is another's treasure as they say, okay. And here's that same chart for companies >> that participate in less than three segments. So, two or one of the segments in the ETR taxonomy. Only three names are seeing positive movement year over year in net score. SUSE under the leadership of amazing CEO, Melissa Di Donato. She's making moves. The company went public last year and acquired rancher labs in 2020. Look, we know that red hat is the big dog in Kubernetes but since the IBM acquisition people have looked to SUSE as a possible alternative and it's showing up in the numbers. It's a nice business. It's going to do more than 600 million this year in revenue, SUSE that is. It's got solid double digit growth in kind of the low teens. It's profitability is under pressure but they're definitely a player that is found a niche and is worth watching. The SolarWinds, What can I say there? I mean, maybe it's a dead cat bounce coming off the major breach that we saw a couple years ago. Some of its customers maybe just can't move off the platform. Constant contact we really don't follow and don't really, you know, focus on them. So, not much to say there. Now look at all the high priced earning stocks or infinite PE stocks that have no E and divide by zero or a negative number and boom, you have infinite PE and look at how their net scores have dropped. We've reported extensively on snowflake. They're still number one as we showed you earlier, net score, but big moves off their highs. Okta, Datadog, Zscaler, SentinelOne Dynatrace, big downward moves, and you can see the rest. So this chart really speaks to the change in expectations from the COVID bubble. Despite the fact that many of these companies CFOs would tell you that the pandemic wasn't necessarily a tailwind for them, but it certainly seemed to be the case when you look back in some of the ETR data. But a big question in the community is what's going to happen to these tech stocks, these tech companies in the market? We reached out to both Eric Bradley of ETR who used to be a technical analyst on Wall Street, and the long time trader and breaking analysis contributor, Chip Symington to get a read on what they thought. First, you know the market >> first point of the market has been off 11 out of the past 12 weeks. And bare market rallies like what we're seeing today and yesterday, they happen from time to time and it was kind of expected. Chair Powell's testimony was broadly viewed as a positive by the street because higher interest rates appear to be pushing commodity prices down. And a weaker consumer sentiment may point to a less onerous inflation outlook. That's good for the market. Chip Symington pointed out to breaking analysis a while ago that the NASDAQ has been on a trend line for the past six months where its highs are lower and the lows are lower and that's a bad sign. And we're bumping up against that trend line here. Meaning if it breaks through that trend it could be a buying signal. As he feels that tech stocks are oversold. He pointed to a recent bounce in semiconductors and cited the Qualcomm example. Here's a company trading at 12 times forward earnings with a sustained 14% growth rate over the next couple of years. And their cash flow is able to support their 2.4, 2% annual dividend. So overall Symington feels this rally was absolutely expected. He's cautious because we're still in a bear market but he's beginning to, to turn bullish. And Eric Bradley added that He feels the market is building a base here and he doesn't expect a 1970s or early 1980s year long sideways move because of all the money that's still in the system. You know, but it could bounce around for several months And remember with higher interest rates there are going to be more options other than equities which for many years has not been the case. Obviously inflation and recession. They are like two looming towers that we're all watching closely and will ultimately determine if, when, and how this market turns around. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to my colleagues, Stephanie Chan, who helps research breaking analysis topics sometimes, and Alex Myerson who is on production in the podcast. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight they help get the word out and do all of our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our Editor in Chief over at siliconangle.com and does some wonderful editing for breaking analysis. Thank you. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search breaking analysis podcasts. I publish each week on wikibon.com and Siliconangle.com. And of course you can reach me by email at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me at DVellante comment on my LinkedIn post and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the CUBE insights powered by ETR. Stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (soft music)
SUMMARY :
bringing you data driven by tech executives on the and across the board, they've and the strategies and tactics and the most recent June in the data set, how much, you know and the survey, is exploring That kind of bottom of the pyramid. in kind of the low teens. and the lows are lower
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Breaking Analysis: What you May not Know About the Dell Snowflake Deal
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto, in Boston bringing you Data Driven Insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> In the pre-cloud era hardware companies would run benchmarks, showing how database and or application performance ran better on their systems relative to competitors or previous generation boxes. And they would make a big deal out of it. And the independent software vendors, you know they'd do a little golf clap if you will, in the form of a joint press release it became a game of leaprog amongst hardware competitors. That was pretty commonplace over the years. The Dell Snowflake Deal underscores that the value proposition between hardware companies and ISVs is changing and has much more to do with distribution channels, volumes and the amount of data that lives On-Prem in various storage platforms. For cloud native ISVs like Snowflake they're realizing that despite their Cloud only dogma they have to grit their teeth and deal with On-premises data or risk getting shut out of evolving architectures. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we unpack what little is known about the Snowflake announcement from Dell Technologies World and discuss the implications of a changing Cloud landscape. We'll also share some new data for Cloud and Database platforms from ETR that shows Snowflake has actually entered the Earth's orbit when it comes to spending momentum on its platform. Now, before we get into the news I want you to listen to Frank's Slootman's answer to my question as to whether or not Snowflake would ever architect the platform to run On-Prem because it's doable technically, here's what he said, play the clip >> Forget it, this will only work in the Public Cloud. Because it's, this is how the utility model works, right. I think everybody is coming through this realization, right? I mean, excuses are running out at this point. You know, we think that it'll, people will come to the Public Cloud a lot sooner than we will ever come to the Private Cloud. It's not that we can't run a private Cloud. It's just diminishes the potential and the value that we bring. >> So you may be asking yourselves how do you square that circle? Because basically the Dell Snowflake announcement is about bringing Snowflake to the private cloud, right? Or is it let's get into the news and we'll find out. Here's what we know at Dell Technologies World. One of the more buzzy announcements was the, by the way this was a very well attended vet event. I should say about I would say 8,000 people by my estimates. But anyway, one of the more buzzy announcements was Snowflake can now run analytics on Non-native Snowflake data that lives On-prem in a Dell object store Dell's ECS to start with. And eventually it's software defined object store. Here's Snowflake's clark, Snowflake's Clark Patterson describing how it works this past week on theCUBE. Play the clip. The way it works is I can now access Non-native Snowflake data using what materialized views, external tables How does that work? >> Some combination of the, all the above. So we've had in Snowflake, a capability called External Tables, which you refer to, it goes hand in hand with this notion of external stages. Basically there's a through the combination of those two capabilities, it's a metadata layer on data, wherever it resides. So customers have actually used this in Snowflake for data lake data outside of Snowflake in the Cloud, up until this point. So it's effectively an extension of that functionality into the Dell On-Premises world, so that we can tap into those things. So we use the external stages to expose all the metadata about what's in the Dell environment. And then we build external tables in Snowflake. So that data looks like it is in Snowflake. And then the experience for the analyst or whomever it is, is exactly as though that data lives in the Snowflake world. >> So as Clark explained, this capability of External tables has been around in the Cloud for a while, mainly to suck data out of Cloud data lakes. Snowflake External Tables use file level metadata, for instance, the name of the file and the versioning so that it can be queried in a stage. A stage is just an external location outside of Snowflake. It could be an S3 bucket or an Azure Blob and it's soon will be a Dell object store. And in using this feature, the Dell looks like it lives inside of Snowflake and Clark essentially, he's correct to say to an analyst that looks exactly like the data is in Snowflake, but uh, not exactly the data's read only which means you can't do what are called DML operations. DML stands for Data Manipulation Language and allows for things like inserting data into tables or deleting and modifying existing data. But the data can be queried. However, the performance of those queries to External Tables will almost certainly be slower. Now users can build things like materialized views which are going to speed things up a bit, but at the end of the day, it's going to run faster than the Cloud. And you can be almost certain that's where Snowflake wants it to run, but some organizations can't or won't move data into the Cloud for a variety of reasons, data sovereignty, compliance security policies, culture, you know, whatever. So data can remain in place On-prem, or it can be moved into the Public Cloud with this new announcement. Now, the compute today presumably is going to be done in the Public Cloud. I don't know where else it's going to be done. They really didn't talk about the compute side of things. Remember, one of Snowflake's early innovations was to separate compute from storage. And what that gave them is you could more efficiently scale with unlimited resources when you needed them. And you could shut off the compute when you don't need us. You didn't have to buy, and if you need more storage you didn't have to buy more compute and vice versa. So everybody in the industry has copied that including AWS with Redshift, although as we've reported not as elegantly as Snowflake did. RedShift's more of a storage tiering solution which minimizes the compute required but you can't really shut it off. And there are companies like Vertica with Eon Mode that have enabled this capability to be done On-prem, you know, but of course in that instance you don't have unlimited elastic compute scale on-Prem but with solutions like Dell Apex and HPE GreenLake, you can certainly, you can start to simulate that Cloud elasticity On-prem. I mean, it's not unlimited but it's sort of gets you there. According to a Dell Snowflake joint statement, the companies the quote, the companies will pursue product integrations and joint go to market efforts in the second half of 2022. So that's a little vague and kind of benign. It's not really clear when this is going to be available based on that statement from the two first, but, you know, we're left wondering will Dell develop an On-Prem compute capability and enable queries to run locally maybe as part of an extended apex offering? I mean, we don't know really not sure there's even a market for that but it's probably a good bet that again, Snowflake wants that data to land in the Snowflake data Cloud kind of makes you wonder how this deal came about. You heard Sloop on earlier Snowflake has always been pretty dogmatic about getting data into its native snowflake format to enable the best performance as we talked about but also data sharing and governance. But you could imagine that data architects they're building out their data mesh we've reported on this quite extensively and their data fabric and those visions around that. And they're probably telling Snowflake, Hey if you want to be a strategic partner of ours you're going to have to be more inclusive of our data. That for whatever reason we're not putting in your Cloud. So Snowflake had to kind of hold its nose and capitulate. Now the good news is it further opens up Snowflakes Tam the total available market. It's obviously good marketing posture. And ultimately it provides an on ramp to the Cloud. And we're going to come back to that shortly but let's look a little deeper into what's happening with data platforms and to do that we'll bring in some ETR data. Now, let me just say as companies like Dell, IBM, Cisco, HPE, Lenovo, Pure and others build out their hybrid Clouds. The cold hard fact is not only do they have to replicate the Cloud Operating Model. You will hear them talk about that a lot, but they got to do that. So it, and that's critical from a user experience but in order to gain that flywheel momentum they need to build a robust ecosystem that goes beyond their proprietary portfolios. And, you know, honestly they're really not even in the first inning most companies and for the likes of Snowflake to sort of flip this, they've had to recognize that not everything is moving into the Cloud. Now, let's bring up the next slide. One of the big areas of discussion at Dell Tech World was Apex. That's essentially Dell's nascent as a service offering. Apex is infrastructure as a Service Cloud On-prem and obviously has the vision of connecting to the Cloud and across Clouds and out to the Edge. And it's no secret that database is one of the most important ingredients of infrastructure as a service generally in Cloud Infrastructure specifically. So this chart here shows the ETR data for data platforms inside of Dell accounts. So the beauty of ETR platform is you can cut data a million different ways. So we cut it. We said, okay, give us the Cloud platforms inside Dell accounts, how are they performing? Now, this is a two dimensional graphic. You got net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and what ETR now calls Overlap formally called Market Share which is a measure of pervasiveness in the survey. That's on the horizontal axis that red dotted line at 40% represents highly elevated spending on the Y. The table insert shows the raw data for how the dots are positioned. Now, the first call out here is Snowflake. According to ETR quote, after 13 straight surveys of astounding net scores, Snowflake has finally broken the trend with its net score dropping below the 70% mark among all respondents. Now, as you know, net score is measured by asking customers are you adding the platform new? That's the lime green in the bar that's pointing from Snowflake in the graph and or are you increasing spend by 6% or more? That's the forest green is spending flat that's the gray is you're spend decreasing by 6% or worse. That's the pinkish or are you decommissioning the platform bright red which is essentially zero for Snowflake subtract the reds from the greens and you get a net score. Now, what's somewhat interesting is that snowflakes net score overall in the survey is 68 which is still huge, just under 70%, but it's net score inside the Dell account base drops to the low sixties. Nonetheless, this chart tells you why Snowflake it's highly elevated spending momentum combined with an increasing presence in the market over the past two years makes it a perfect initial data platform partner for Dell. Now and in the Ford versus Ferrari dynamic. That's going on between the likes of Dell's apex and HPE GreenLake database deals are going to become increasingly important beyond what we're seeing with this recent Snowflake deal. Now noticed by the way HPE is positioned on this graph with its acquisition of map R which is now part of HPE Ezmeral. But if these companies want to be taken seriously as Cloud players, they need to further expand their database affinity to compete ideally spinning up databases as part of their super Clouds. We'll come back to that that span multiple Clouds and include Edge data platforms. We're a long ways off from that. But look, there's Mongo, there's Couchbase, MariaDB, Cloudera or Redis. All of those should be on the short list in my view and why not Microsoft? And what about Oracle? Look, that's to be continued on maybe as a future topic in a, in a Breaking Analysis but I'll leave you with this. There are a lot of people like John Furrier who believe that Dell is playing with fire in the Snowflake deal because he sees it as a one way ticket to the Cloud. He calls it a one way door sometimes listen to what he said this past week. >> I would say that that's a dangerous game because we've seen that movie before, VMware and AWS. >> Yeah, but that we've talked about this don't you think that was the right move for VMware? >> At the time, but if you don't nurture the relationship AWS will take all those customers ultimately from VMware. >> Okay, so what does the data say about what John just said? How is VMware actually doing in Cloud after its early missteps and then its subsequent embracing of AWS and other Clouds. Here's that same XY graphic spending momentum on the Y and pervasiveness on the X and the same table insert that plots the dots and the, in the breakdown of Dell's net score granularity. You see that at the bottom of the chart in those colors. So as usual, you see Azure and AWS up and to the right with Google well behind in a distant third, but still in the mix. So very impressive for Microsoft and AWS to have both that market presence in such elevated spending momentum. But the story here in context is that the VMware Cloud on AWS and VMware's On-Prem Cloud like VMware Cloud Foundation VCF they're doing pretty well in the market. Look, at HPE, gaining some traction in Cloud. And remember, you may not think HPE and Dell and VCF are true Cloud but these are customers answering the survey. So their perspective matters more than the purest view. And the bad news is the Dell Cloud is not setting the world on fire from a momentum standpoint on the vertical axis but it's above the line of zero and compared to Dell's overall net score of 20 you could see it's got some work to do. Okay, so overall Dell's got a pretty solid net score to you know, positive 20, as I say their Cloud perception needs to improve. Look, Apex has to be the Dell Cloud brand not Dell reselling VMware. And that requires more maturity of Apex it's feature sets, its selling partners, its compensation models and it's ecosystem. And I think Dell clearly understands that. I think they're pretty open about that. Now this includes partners that go beyond being just sellers has to include more tech offerings in the marketplace. And actually they got to build out a marketplace like Cloud Platform. So they got a lot of work to do there. And look, you've got Oracle coming up. I mean they're actually kind of just below the magic 40% in the line which is pro it's pretty impressive. And we've been telling you for years, you can hate Oracle all you want. You can hate its price, it's closed system all of that it's red stack shore. You can say it's legacy. You can say it's old and outdated, blah, blah, blah. You can say Oracle is irrelevant in trouble. You are dead wrong. When it comes to mission critical workloads. Oracle is the king of the hill. They're a founder led company that knows exactly what it's doing and they're showing Cloud momentum. Okay, the last point is that while Microsoft AWS and Google have major presence as shown on the X axis. VMware and Oracle now have more than a hundred citations in the survey. You can see that on the insert in the right hand, right most column. And IBM had better keep the momentum from last quarter going, or it won't be long before they get passed by Dell and HP in Cloud. So look, John might be right. And I would think Snowflake quietly agrees that this Dell deal is all about access to Dell's customers and their data. So they can Hoover it into the Snowflake Data Cloud but the data right now, anyway doesn't suggest that's happening with VMware. Oh, by the way, we're keeping an eye close eye on NetApp who last September ink, a similar deal to VMware Cloud on AWS to see how that fares. Okay, let's wrap with some closing thoughts on what this deal means. We learned a lot from the Cloud generally in AWS, specifically in two pizza teams, working backwards, customer obsession. We talk about flywheel all the time and we've been talking today about marketplaces. These have all become common parlance and often fundamental narratives within strategic plans investor decks and customer presentations. Cloud ecosystems are different. They take both competition and partnerships to new heights. You know, when I look at Azure service offerings like Apex, GreenLake and similar services and I see the vendor noise or hear the vendor noise that's being made around them. I kind of shake my head and ask, you know which movie were these companies watching last decade? I really wish we would've seen these initiatives start to roll out in 2015, three years before AWS announced Outposts not three years after but Hey, the good news is that not only was Outposts a wake up call for the On-Prem crowd but it's showing how difficult it is to build a platform like Outposts and bring it to On-Premises. I mean, Outpost isn't currently even a rounding era in the marketplace. It really doesn't do much in terms of database support and support of other services. And, you know, it's unclear where that that is going. And I don't think it has much momentum. And so the Hybrid Cloud Vendors they've had time to figure it out. But now it's game on, companies like Dell they're promising a consistent experience between On-Prem into the Cloud, across Clouds and out to the Edge. They call it MultCloud which by the way my view has really been multi-vendor Chuck, Chuck Whitten. Who's the new co-COO of Dell called it Multi-Cloud by default. (laughing) That's really, I think an accurate description of that. I call this new world Super Cloud. To me, it's different than MultiCloud. It's a layer that runs on top of hyperscale infrastructure kind of hides the underlying complexity of the Cloud. It's APIs, it's primitives. And it stretches not only across Clouds but out to the Edge. That's a big vision and that's going to require some seriously intense engineering to build out. It's also going to require partnerships that go beyond the portfolios of companies like Dell like their own proprietary stacks if you will. It's going to have to replicate the Cloud Operating Model and to do that, you're going to need more and more deals like Snowflake and even deeper than Snowflake, not just in database. Sure, you'll need to have a catalog of databases that run in your On-Prem and Hybrid and Super Cloud but also other services that customers can tap. I mean, can you imagine a day when Dell offers and embraces a directly competitive service inside of apex. I have trouble envisioning that, you know not with their historical posture, you think about companies like, you know, Nutanix, you know, or Cisco where they really, you know those relationships cooled quite quickly but you know, look, think about it. That's what AWS does. It offers for instance, Redshift and Snowflake side by side happily and the Redshift guys they probably hate Snowflake. I wouldn't blame them, but the EC Two Folks, they love them. And Adam SloopesKy understands that ISVs like Snowflake are a key part of the Cloud ecosystem. Again, I have a hard time envisioning that occurring with Dell or even HPE, you know maybe less so with HPE, but what does this imply that the Edge will allow companies like Dell to a reach around on the Cloud and somehow create a new type of model that begrudgingly accommodates the Public Cloud but drafts of the new momentum of the Edge, which right now to these companies is kind of mostly telco and retail. It's hard to see that happening. I think it's got to evolve in a more comprehensive and inclusive fashion. What's much more likely is companies like Dell are going to substantially replicate that Cloud Operating Model for the pieces that they own pieces that they control which admittedly are big pieces of the market. But unless they're able to really tap that ecosystem magic they're not going to be able to grow much beyond their existing install bases. You take that lime green we showed you earlier that new adoption metric from ETR as an example, by my estimates, AWS and Azure are capturing new accounts at a rate between three to five times faster than Dell and HPE. And in the more mature US and mere markets it's probably more like 10 X and a major reason is because of the Cloud's robust ecosystem and the optionality and simplicity of transaction that that is bringing to customers. Now, Dell for its part is a hundred billion dollar revenue company. And it has the capability to drive that kind of dynamic. If it can pivot its partner ecosystem mindset from kind of resellers to Cloud services and technology optionality. Okay, that's it for now? Thanks to my colleagues, Stephanie Chan who helped research topics for Breaking Analysis. Alex Myerson is on the production team. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight and Rob Hof, on editorial they helped get the word out and thanks to Jordan Anderson for the new Breaking Analysis branding and graphics package. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you do is search Breaking Analysis podcasts. You could check out ETR website @etr.ai. We publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You want to get in touch. @dave.vellente @siliconangle.com. You can DM me @dvellante. You can make a comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)
SUMMARY :
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Breaking Analysis: The Ever expanding Cloud Continues to Storm the IT Universe
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Despite a mixed bag of earnings reports from tech companies, negative GDP growth this past quarter, and rising inflation, the cloud continues its relentless expandtion on the IT landscape. AWS, Microsoft, and Alphabet of all reported earnings, and when you include Alibaba Cloud in the mix, the Big 4 hyperscalers are on track to generate 167 billion in revenue this year based on our projections. But as we said many times on theCUBE, the definition of cloud is expanding and hybrid environments are becoming the norm at major organizations. We're seeing the largest enterprise tech companies focus on solving for hybrid, and every public cloud company now has a strategy to bring their environments closer to where customers workloads live, at data centers, and at the edge. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis will update you on our latest cloud projections and outlook. We'll share some fresh ETR data and commentary on what's happening in the hybrid zone of cloud. Let's start with the market data for the Big 4 hyperscalers. In this chart, we share our Big 4 cloud share for IaaS and PaaS for 2020, 2021, and the first quarter of 2022, and our estimate for 2022 full year and growth. Remember, only AWS and Alibaba report relatively clean IaaS and PaaS figures, whereas Microsoft and Google, they bundled their cloud infrastructure in with their SaaS numbers. We both firms, however, they do give guidance and we use survey data and other tidbits to create an apples to apples comparison, and that's what we show here. For the quarter, the Big 4 approach to 37 billion in revenue as a group. Azure's growth rate is reported by Microsoft but the absolute revenue is not. Azure growth accelerated sequentially by 49% to just over 13 billion in the quarter by our estimates while AWS's growth moderated, sequentially, but revenue still hit 18.4 billion. Azure, by our estimates, now is more than 2/3 the size of AWS's cloud business. Google and Alibaba are fighting for the bronze medal, but well behind the two leaders. Microsoft's Azure acceleration is quite remarkable for such a large revenue base, but it's not unprecedented as we've seen this pattern before with AWS. Nonetheless, the fact that Azure is growing at the same rate as GCP is quite impressive. Now, a couple of other tidbits of information. Amazon, its stock is getting hammered today because of inflation and slowing growth rates at the top line. But AWS continues to beat Wall Street's expectations. A look at Amazon's operating income this quarter tells the story. Amazon overall had operating income of -3.66 billion and AWS's operating income with 6.5 billion. AWS's operating margin grew sequentially from nearly 30% last quarter to 35.3%. That's an astoundingly profitable figure. This is comparable to insanely profitable companies like Oracle and Microsoft. These are software companies with software marginal economics. Is that level of sustainable? Probably not for AWS, but it's eye opening, nonetheless. ETR survey data shows why these companies are doing so well with customers. This chart shows the net score granularity for the Big 4 cloud players. Net score, remember, measures spending momentum by asking customers, are you adopting new? That's the lime green. Increasing spend by 6% or more, that's the forest green. Flats spend is the gray. Spending dropping by 6% or worse is the light pink. And the red is decommissioning the platform. Subtract the reds from the greens and you get a net score which is shown on the right. Anything, by the way, over 40% we consider highly elevated. Now some key points here. Microsoft includes its entire business in this chart, we are including, ETR is including Microsoft's entire business, not just its cloud. Its Azure-only net score is 67%, higher than even AWS's, and that's huge. Google Cloud, on the other hand, while still elevated is well behind the two leaders. Alibaba's data sample in the ETR survey is small and China has had its foot on the neck of Big Tech for a while so we can't read too much into a net score of 26. But notice the replacements in red across the boards single digits for all and low single digits for the two giants, 1% for Amazon and Azure. Very impressive. Now the other really telling reality check is CapEx spending on cloud. CapEx spend tends to be a pretty good indicator of scale. And Charles Fitzgerald who runs the Platformonomics blog spends a fair amount of his time on this topic and we borrowed this chart from a recent post he did, and then we put in some estimates of our own. It shows CapEx spend over time for five cloud companies, the Big 3 US firms that we just talked about, plus IBM and Oracle. And it's always astounding to me to go back to the pre-cloud era and look at IBM. They were in a great position prior to 2006 to really dominate this notion of as a service and the transition to what is now known as cloud. But they really couldn't get their head out of professional services and their outsourcing business. There was some conflicts there as well. And so, you know, IBM you see is that dark blue or black line and spent significantly more than the others way back when, not anymore. Charles is kind of a snark. He loves to make fun of our super cloud concept even though I'm confident it's evolving and is real. But his point above in this chart is right on, the Big 3 US players spend far more on CapEx than IBM and Oracle. He states that Oracle's uptick in CapEx spend puts them past IBM, but the two of them are battling to distance themselves and differentiate from the X-axis. Funny guy, Charles. In its recent earnings report, Amazon stated that around 40% of its CapEx goes to infrastructure and most of that goes to AWS. It expects CapEx to grow this year and around 50% will go toward infrastructure. So we've superimposed our rough estimate of where AWS lands when you subtract out all of Amazon's warehouses for retail. And once again, Microsoft is notable because unlike Amazon, it doesn't have a zillion warehouses to ship products to consumers. And while Google spending is massive, it's mostly on servers to power its ad network. But there's no question that GCP can leverage that infrastructure and the tech behind it, and it does. And by the way, so can everyone else, by the way, leverage all this CapEx spend. We're going to come back to that and talk about super cloud in a moment. Okay, let's close by looking at the ever-expanding cloud landscape. This chart shows a two-dimensional view of the ETR data for cloud computing. On the vertical-axis is net score or spending momentum, and in the horizontal-axis is pervasiveness in the data set. It's like market share within the survey, if you will. The chart insert shows the data for how the dots are plotted on each axis. The red dotted line at 40%, remember, indicates a highly elevated position with net score and significant spending momentum. And the green arrows show the movement for some companies relative to three months ago. Okay, so Microsoft and AWS, they're kind of circled way up in the right-hand corner, very impressive. Just to reduce the clutter, we're not showing AWS Lambda here and some other highly elevated services which would push up, ticked up AWS's net score but it's still really, really good. As is azure, they're both moving solidly to the right relative to last quarters survey. So gaining presence in the data set and presumably in the market as well. Google is, as we've said, well behind and has much work to do. It was announced this past week that the head of sales at Google Cloud, Rob Enslin, is leaving to join UiPath, so some interesting news there. We've highlighted the hybrid zone. Now to the theme of this Breaking Analysis, the ever-expanding cloud, AWS announced that it's completed the launch of 16 local zones in the US and there are 32 more coming across 26 countries. Local zones basically bring cloud infrastructure to regions where there's a lot of IT that isn't going to move. And for proximity and latency reasons, they have to move closer, move the cloud closer, the cloud operating model if you will, closer to the customers. And there's that CapEx build out showing its head again. Now the reason this hybrid zone becomes interesting is you're seeing the large enterprise players finally go after the hybrid cloud in Earnest. It's almost like the AWS outposts announcement in 2018 was a wake up call to infrastructure players like Dell, HPE, and IBM. It took a while, but Oracle is kind of skipping to its own tune, but they're in that hybrid zone as well. IBM had a really good quarter and the Red Hat acquisition seems to be working to support its hybrid cloud strategy. Now VMware several years ago clean up its fuzzy cloud strategy and partnered up with AWS and everyone else. And you see VMware Cloud on AWS doing well as is VMware Cloud, its on-prem offering. Even though it's somewhat lower on the X-axis, based on that green arrow was showing relative to last quarter. It's moving to the right with a greater presence in the data set so that we see that as a positive sign. Now, Dell and HP are interesting. Both companies are going hard after as a service with APEX and GreenLake, respectively. HPE, based on the survey data from ETR, seems to have a lead in spending momentum while Dell has a larger presence in the market, naturally, as a much bigger company. HPE is climbing up on the X-axis, as is Dell, although, not as quickly. And the point we come back to often is the definition of cloud is in the eye of the customer. AWS can say, "No, no that's not cloud." And the on-prem crowd can say, "Ooh, we have cloud too." It really doesn't matter. What matters is what the customer thinks and which platforms they choose to invest. And I'll close by circling back to the idea of super cloud. You are seeing it evolve and you're going to hear more and more about it. Yeah, maybe not the term, many don't like it. We're going to continue to use it as a metaphor for a layer that leverages the CapEx build, the gift that the hyperscalers are providing the industry. This is a real opportunity for the likes of Dell, HPE, IBM, Cisco, and dozens of other companies providing compute and storage infrastructure, networking, security, database, and other parts of the stack. By hiding the underlying complexity of the cloud, dealing with all the API and primitive muck, creating singular experience across on-prem, across clouds, and out to the edge is a definite need from customers. This is a new battle that's shaping up and it's going to be expensive to build and it require an ecosystem cooperating across this API economy, as some like to call it. It's going to have to do that to make it a reality. Now there's a definite, as I say, customer need for this common experience, and in our view, we're seeing it manifest in pockets today and in strategies and in R&D projects, both within startups and established players. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Stephanie Chan who helps research Breaking Analysis topics. Alex Myerson is on production and he also manages the Breaking Analysis podcast. Kristen and Martin and Cheryl Knight get the word out on social. Thanks to all, including Rob Hof, our editor in chief at SiliconANGLE. Remember these episodes are all available as podcast wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. Check out ETR website at etr.ai. We publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me directly at david.vellante@siliconangle.com, or DM me @dvellante or comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, stay safe, be well and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)
SUMMARY :
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Breaking Analysis: Cyber Stocks Caught in the Storm While Private Firms Keep Rising
>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The pandemic precipitated what is shaping up to be a permanent shift in cybersecurity spending patterns. As a direct result of hybrid work, CSOs have vested heavily in endpoint security, identity access management, cloud security, and further hardening the network beyond the headquarters. We've reported on this extensively in this Breaking Analysis series. Moreover, the need to build security into applications from the start rather than bolting protection on as an afterthought has led to vastly high heightened awareness around DevSecOps. Finally, attacking security as a data problem with automation and AI is fueling new innovations in cyber products and services and startups. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we present our quarterly findings in the security industry, and share the latest ETR survey data on the spending momentum and market movers. Let's start with the most recent news in cybersecurity. Nary a week goes by without more concerning news. The latest focus in the headlines is, of course, Russia's relentless cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in the Ukraine, including banking, government websites, weaponizing information. The hacker group, BlackByte, put a double whammy on the San Francisco 49ers, meaning they exfiltrated data and they encrypted the organization's files as part of its ransomware attack. Then there's the best Super Bowl ad last Sunday, the Coinbase floating QR code. Did you catch that? As people rushed to scan the code and participate in the Coinbase Bitcoin giveaway, it highlights yet another exposure, meaning we're always told not to click on links that we don't trust or we've never seen, but so many people activated this random QR code on their smartphones that it crashed Coinbase's website. What does that tell you? In other news, Securonix raised a billion dollars. They did this raise on top of Lacework's massive $1.3 billion raise last November. Both of these companies are attacking security with data automation and APIs that can engage machine intelligence. Securonix, specifically in the announcement, mentioned the uptake from MSSPs, managed security service providers, something we've talked about in this series. And that's a trend that we see as increasingly gaining traction as customers are just drawing in and drowning in security incidents. Peter McKay's company, Snyk, acquired Fugue, a company focused on making sure security policies are consistent throughout the software development life cycle. It's a really an example of a developer-defined security approach where policy can be checked at the dev, deployment, and production phases to ensure the same policies are in place at all stages, including monitoring at runtime. Fugue, according to Crunchbase, had raised $85 million to date. In some other company news, Cisco was rumored to be acquiring Splunk for not much more than Splunk is worth today. And the talks reportedly broke down. This would be a major move in security by Cisco and underscores the pressure to consolidate. Cisco would get an extremely strong customer base and through efficiencies could improve Splunk's profitability, but it seems like the premium Cisco was willing to pay was not enough to entice board to act. Splunk board, that is. Datadog blew away its earnings, and the stock was up 12%. It's pulled back now, thanks to Putin, but it's one of those companies that is disrupting Splunk. Datadog is less than half the size of Splunk, revenue-wise, but its valuation is more than 2 1/2 times greater. Finally, Elastic, another Splunk disruptor, settled its trademark dispute with AWS, and now AWS will now stop using the name Elasticsearch. All right, let's take a high level look at how cyber companies have performed in the stock market over time. Here's a graph of the Cyber ETF, and you can see the March 1st crosshairs of 2020 signifying the start of the lockdown. The trajectory of cybersecurity stocks is shown by the orange and blue lines, and it surely has steepened post March of 2020. And, of course, it's been down with the market lately, but the run up, as you can see, was substantial and eclipsed the trajectory of the previous cycles over the last couple of years, owing much of the momentum to the spending dynamics that we talked about at our open. Let's now drill into some of the names that we've been following over the last few years and take a look at the firm level. This chart shows some data that we've been tracking since before the pandemic. The top rows show the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ prices, and the bottom rows show specific stocks. The first column is the index price or the market cap of the company just before the pandemic, then the same data one year later. Then the next column shows the peak value during the pandemic, and then the current value. Then it shows in the next column where it is today, in percentage terms, i.e., how far has it pulled back from the peak, then the delta from pre-pandemic, in other words, how much did the issue earn or lose during the pandemic for investors? We then compare the pre-pandemic revenue multiple using a trailing 12-month revenue metric. Sorry, that's what we used. It's easy to get. (laughs) And that's the revenue multiple compared to the August in 2020, when multiples were really high, and where they are today, and then a recent quarterly growth rate guide based on the last earnings report. That's the last column. Okay, so I'm throwing a lot of data at you here, but what does it tell us? First, the S&P and the NAS are well up from pre-pandemic levels, yet they're off 9% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks today. That was earlier on Friday morning. Now let's look at the names more closely. Splunk has been struggling. It definitely had a tailwind from the pandemic as all boats seem to rise, but its execution has been lacking. It's now 30% off from its pre-pandemic levels. (groans) And it's multiple is compressing, and perhaps Cisco thought it could pick up the company for a discount. Now let's talk about Palo Alto Networks. We had reported on some of the challenges the company faced moving into a cloud-friendly model. that was before the pandemic. And we talked about the divergence between Palo Alto's stock price and the valuations relative to Fortinet, and we said at the time, we fully expected Palo Alto to rebound, and that's exactly what happened. It rode the tailwinds of the last two years. It's up over 100% from its pre-COVID levels, and its revenue multiple is expanding, owing to the nice growth rates. Now Fortinet had been doing well coming into the pandemic. In fact, we said it was executing on a cloud strategy better than Palo Alto Networks, hence that divergence in valuations at the time. So it didn't get as much of a boost from the pandemic. Didn't get that momentum at first, but the company's been executing very well. And as you can see, with 155% increase in valuation since just before the pandemic, it's going more than okay for Fortinet. Now, Okta is a name that we've really followed closely, the identity access management specialist that rocketed. But since it's Auth0 acquisition, it's pulled back. Investors are concerned about its guidance and its profitability. And several analyst have downgraded their price targets on Okta. We still really like the company. The Auth0 acquisition gives Okta a developer vector, and we think the company is going hard after market presence and is willing to sacrifice short-term profitability. We actually like that posture. It's very Frank Slupin-like. This company spends a lot of money on R&D and go-to-market. The question is, does Okta have inherent profitability? The company, as they say, spends a ton in some really key areas but it looks to us like it's going to establish a footprint. It's guiding revenue CAGR in the mid-30s over the mid to long-term and near term should beat that benchmark handily. But you can see the red highlights on Okta. And even though Okta is up 59% from its pre-pandemic levels, it's far behind its peers shown in the chart, especially CrowdStrike and Zscaler, the latter being somewhat less impacted by the pullback in stocks recently, of course, due to the fears of inflation and interest rates, and, of course, Russian invasion escalation. But these high flyers, they were bound to pull back. The question is can they maintain their category leadership? And for the most part, we think they can. All right, let's get into some of the ETR data. Here's our favorite XY view with net score, or spending momentum on the Y-axis, and market share or pervasiveness in the data center on the horizontal axis. That red 40% line, that indicates a highly elevated spending level. And the chart inserts to the right, that shows how the data is plotted with net score and shared N in each of the columns by each company. Okay, so this is an eye chart, but there really are three main takeaways. One is that it's a crowded market. And this shows only the companies ETR captures in its survey. We filtered on those that had more than 50 mentions. So there's others in the ETR survey that we're not showing here, and there are many more out there which don't get reported in the spending data in the ETR survey. Secondly, there are a lot of companies above the 40% mark, and plenty with respectable net scores just below. Third, check out SentinelOne, Elastic, Tanium, Datadog, Netskope, and Darktrace. Each has under 100 N's but we're watching these companies closely. They're popping up in the survey, and they're catching our attention, especially SentinelOne, post-IPO. So we wanted to pare this back a bit and filter the data some more. So let's look at companies with more than 100 mentions in the same chart. It gets a little cleaner this picture, but it's still crowded. Auth0 leads everyone in net score. Okta is also up there, so that's very positive sign since they had just acquired Auth0. CrowdStrike SalePoint, Cyberark, CloudFlare, and Zscaler are all right up there as well. And then there's the bigger security companies. Palo Alto Network, very impressive because it's well above the 40% mark, and it has a big presence in the survey, and, of course, in the market. And Microsoft as well. They're such a big whale. They skew the data for everybody else to kind of mess up these charts. And the position of Cisco and Splunk make for an interesting combination. They get both decent net scores, not above the 40% line but they got a good presence in the survey as well. Thinking about the acquisition, Al Shugart was the CEO of of Seagate, and founder. Brilliant Silicon valley icon and engineer. Great business person. I was asking him one time, hey, you thinking about buying this company or that company? And of course, he's not going to tell me who he's thinking about buying or acquiring. He said, let me just tell you this. If you want to know what I'm thinking, ask yourself if it were free, would you take it? And he said the answer's not always obviously yes, because acquisitions can be messy and disruptive. In the case of Cisco and Splunk, I think the answer would be a definitive yes It would expand Cisco's portfolio and make it the leader in security, with an opportunity to bring greater operating leverage to Splunk. Cisco's just got to pay more if it wants that asset. It's got to pay more than the supposed $20 billion offer that it made. It's going to have to get kind of probably north of 23 billion. I pinged my ETR colleague, Erik Bradley, on this, and he generally agreed. He's very close to the security space. He said, Splunk isn't growing the customer base but the customers are sticky. I totally agree. Cisco could roll Splunk into its security suite. Splunk is the leader in that space, security information and event management, and Cisco really is missing that piece of the pie. All right, let's filter the data even more and look at some of the companies that have moved in the survey over the past year and a half. We'll go back here to July 2020. Same two-dimensional chart. And we're isolating here Auth0, Okta, SalePoint CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Cyberark, Fortinet, and Cisco. No Microsoft. That cleans up the chart. Okay, why these firms? Because they've made some major moves to the right, and some even up since last July. And that's what this next chart shows. Here's the data from the January 2022 survey. The arrow start points show the position that we just showed you earlier in July 2020, and all these players have made major moves to the right. How come? Well, it's likely a combination of strong execution, and the fact that security is on the radar of every CEO, CIO, of course, CSOs, business heads, boards of directors. Everyone is thinking about security. The market momentum is there, especially for the leaders. And it's quite tremendous. All right, let's now look at what's become a bit of a tradition with Breaking Analysis, and look at the firms that have earned four stars. Four-star firms are leaders in the ETR survey that demonstrate both a large presence, that's that X-axis that we showed you, and elevated spending momentum. Now in this chart, we filter the N's. Has to be greater than 100. And we isolate on those companies. So more than 100 responses in the survey. On the left-hand side of the chart, we sort by net score or spending velocity. On the right-hand side, we sort by shared N's or presence in the dataset. We show the top 20 for each of the categories. And the red line shows the top 10 cutoffs. Companies that show up in the top 10 for both spending momentum and presence in the data set earn four stars. If they show up in one, and make the top 10 in one, and make the top 20 in the other, they get two stars. And we've added a one-star category as honorable mention for those companies that make the top 20 in both categories. Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Okta make the four-star grade. Okta makes it even without Auth0, which has the number one net score in this data set with 115 shared N to boot. So you can add that to Okta. The weighted average would pull Okta's net score to just above Cyberark's into fourth place. And its shared N would bump Okta up to third place on the right-hand side of the chart Cisco, Splunk, Proofpoint, KnowBe4, Zscaler, and Cyberark get two stars. And then you can see the honorable mentions with one star. Now thinking about a Cisco, Splunk combination. You'd get an entity with a net score in the mid-20s. Yeah, not too bad, definitely respectable. But they'd be number one on the right-hand side of this chart, with the largest market presence in the survey by far. Okay, let's wrap. The trends around hybrid work, cloud migration and the attacker escalation that continue to drive cybersecurity momentum and they're going to do so indefinitely. And we've got some bullet points here that you're seeing private companies, (laughs) they're picking up gobs of money, which really speaks to the fact that there's no silver bullet in this market. It's complex, chaotic, and cash-rich. This idea of MSSPs on the rise is going to continue, we think. About half the mid-size and large organization in the US don't have a SecOps, a security operation center, and outsourcing to one that can be tapped on a consumption basis, cloud-like, as a service just makes sense to us. We see the momentum that companies that we've highlighted over the many quarters of Breaking Analysis are forming. They're forming a strong base in the market. They're going for market share and footprint, and they're focusing on growth, at bringing in new talent. They have good balance sheets and strong management teams and we think they'll be leading companies in the future, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Okta, SentinelOne, Cyberark, SalePoint, over time, joining the ranks of billion dollar cyber firms, when I say billion dollar, billion dollar revenue like Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, and Splunk, if it doesn't get acquired. These independent firms that really focus on security. Which underscores the pressure and consolidation and M&A in the whole space. It's almost assured with the fragmentation of companies and so many new entrants fighting for escape velocity that this market is going to continue with robust M&A and consolidation. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to my colleague, Stephanie Chan, who helped research this week's topics, and Alex Myerson on the production team. He also manages the Breaking Analysis podcast. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, who get the word out. Thank you to all. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. Check out ETR's website at etr.ai. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. @dvellante is my DM. Comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week. Be safe, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)
SUMMARY :
in Palo Alto and Boston, and M&A in the whole space.
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Breaking Analysis: The Hybrid Cloud Tug of War Gets Real
>> From the theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Well, it looks like hybrid cloud is finally here. We've seen a decade of posturing, marchitecture, slideware and narrow examples of hybrid cloud, but there's little question that the definition of cloud is expanding to include on-premises workloads in hybrid models. Now depending on which numbers you choose to represent IT spending, public cloud only accounts for actually less than 5% of the total pie. So the big question is, how will this now evolve? Customers want control, they want governance, they want security, flexibility and a feature-rich set of services to build their digital businesses. It's unlikely that they can buy all that, so they're going to have to build it with partners, specifically vendors, SI's, consultancies and their own developers. The tug of war to win the new cloud day has finally started in earnest between the hyperscalers and the largest enterprise tech companies in the world. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we'll walk you through how we see the battle for hybrid cloud, how we got here, where we are and where it's headed. First, I want to go back to 2009, in a blog post by a man named Chuck Hollis. Chuck Hollis, at the time, was a CTO and marketing guru inside of EMC who, remember, owned VMware. Chuck was kind of this hybrid, multi-tool player, pun intended. EMC at the time had a big stake, a lot at stake, as the ascendancy of AWS was threatening the historical models, which had defined enterprise IT. Now around that time, NIST published its first draft of a cloud computing definition which, as I recall, included language, something to the effect of accessing remote services over the public network, i.e., public IP networks. Now, NIST has essentially or since evolved that definition, but the original draft was very favorable to the public cloud. And the vendor community, the traditional vendor community, said hang on, we're in this game too. So that was 2009 when Chuck Hollis published this slide. He termed it Private Cloud, a term which he saw buried inside of a Gartner research post or research note that was not really fleshed out and defined. The idea was pretty compelling. The definition of cloud centered on control, where you, as the customer, had on-prem workloads that could span public and on-prem clouds, if you will, with federated security and a data plan that spanned the states. Essentially, you had an internal and an external cloud with a single point of control. This is basically what the hybrid cloud vision has become. An abstraction layer that spans on-prem and public clouds and we can extend that across clouds and out to the edge, where a customer has a single point of control and federated governance and security. Now we know this is still aspirational, but we're now seeing vendor offerings that put forth this promise and a roadmap to get there from different points of view, that we're going to talk about today. The NIST definition now reads cloud computing is a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources, e.g., network server storage, applications and services, that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. So there you have it, that is inclusive of on-prem, but it took the industry a decade plus to actually get where we are today. And they did so by essentially going to school with the public cloud offerings. Now in 2018, AWS announced Outposts and that was another wake up call to the on-prem community. Externally, they pointed to the validation that hybrid cloud was real. Hey, AWS is doing it so clearly they've capitulated, but most on-prem vendors at the time didn't have a coherent offering for hybrid, but the point is the on-prem vendors responded as they saw AWS moving past the demilitarized zone into enemy lines. And here's what the competitive landscape of hybrid offerings looks like today. All three US-based hyperscalers have an offering or multiple offerings in various forms, Outposts from Amazon and other services that they offer, Google Anthos and Azure Arc, they're all so prominent, but the real action today is coming from the on-prem vendors. Every major company has an offering. Now most of these stemmed from services-led and finance-led initiatives, but they're evolving to true Azure Service models. HPE GreenLake is prominent and the company's CEO, Antonio Neri, is putting the whole company behind Azure Service. HPE claims to be the first, it uses that in its marketing, with such an Azure Service offering, but actually Oracle was their first with Cloud@Customer. You know, possibly Microsoft could make a claim to being early as well, but it really doesn't matter. Let's see, Dell has responded with Apex and is going hard after this opportunity. Cisco has Cisco Plus and Lenovo has TruScale. IBM also has a long services and finance-led history and has announced pockets of Azure Service in areas like storage. And Pure Storage is an example that we chose of a segment player, of course within storage, that has a strong Azure Service offering, and there are others like that. So the landscape is getting very busy. And so, let's break this down a bit. AWS is bringing its programmable infrastructure model and its own hardware to what it calls the edge. And it looks at on-prem data centers as just another edge node. So that's how they're de-positioning the on-prem crowd, but the fact is, when you really look at what Outposts can do today, it's limited, but AWS will move quickly so expect a continued rapid evolution of their model and the services that are supported on Outposts. Azure gets its hardware from partners and has relationships with virtually everyone that matters. Anthos is, as well, a software layer and Google created Kubernetes as the great equalizer in cloud. And it was a nice open source gift to the industry and has obviously taken off. So the cloud guys have the advantage of owning a cloud. The pure on-prem players, they don't, but the on-prem crowd has rich stacks, much richer and more mature in a lot of areas, as it relates to supporting on-premises workloads and much more so than the cloud players, but they don't have mature cloud stacks. They're kind of just getting started with things like subscription billing and API-based microservices offerings. They got to figure out Salesforce compensation and just the overall Azure service mentality versus the historical product box mentality, and that takes time. And they're each coming at this from their respective different points of view and points of strength. HPE is doing a very good job of marketing and go-to market. It probably has the cleanest model, enabled by the company's split from HP, but it has some gaps that it's needed to fill and it's doing so through acquisitions. Ezmeral, for example, is it's new data play. It just bought Zerto to facilitate backup as a service. And it's expanded partnerships to fill gaps in the portfolio. Some partnerships, which they couldn't do before because it created conflicts inside of HPE or HP. Dell is all about the portfolio, the breadth of the portfolio, the go-to-market prowess and its supply chain advantage. It's very serious about Azure Service with Apex and it's driving hard to win that day. Cisco comes at this from a huge portfolio and of course, a point of strength and networking, which maybe is a bit tougher to offer as a service, but Cisco has a large and fast growing subscription business in collaborations, security and other areas, so it's cloud-like in that regard. And Oracle, of course, has the huge advantage of an extremely rich functional stack and it owns a cloud, which has dramatically improved in the past few years, but Oracle is narrow to the red stack, at least today. Oracle, if it wanted to, we think, could dominate the database cloud, it could be the database cloud, especially if it decided to open its cloud to competitive database offerings and run them in the Oracle cloud. Hmm. Wonder if Oracle will ever move in that direction. Now a big part of this shift is the appeal of OPEX versus CAPEX. Let's take a look at some ETR data that digs a bit deeper into this topic. This data is from an August ETR drill down, asking CIOs and IT buyers how their budgets are split between OPEX and CAPEX. The mid point of the yellow line shows where we are today, 57% OPEX, expecting to grow to 63% one year from now. That's not a huge difference, there's not a huge difference when you drill into global 2000, which kind of surprised me. I thought global 2000 would be heavier CAPEX, but they seem to be accelerating the shift to OPEX slightly faster than the overall base, but not really in a meaningful way. So I didn't really discern big differences there. Now, when you dig further into industries and look at subscription versus consumption models for OPEX, you see about 60/40 favoring subscription models, with most industry slowly moving toward consumption or usage based models over time. There are a couple of outliers, but generally speaking, that's the trend. What's perhaps more interesting is when you drill into subscription versus usage based models by product area, and that's what this chart shows. It shows by tech segment, the percent subscription, that's the blue, versus consumption or usage based, that's the gray bars, yellow being indifferent or maybe it's I don't know. What stands out are two areas that are more usage heavy, consumption heavy. That's database, data warehousing, and IS. So database is surely weighted by companies like Snowflake and offerings like Redshift and other cloud databases from Azure and Google and other managed services, but the IS piece, while not surprising, is, we think, relevant because most of the legacy vendor Azure Service offerings are borrowing from a SaaS-oriented subscription model with a hardware twist. In other words, as a customer, you're committing to a term and a minimum spend over the life of that term. You're locked in for a year or three years, whatever it is, to account for the hardware and headroom the vendor has to install because they want to allow you to increase your usage. So that's the usage based model. See, you're then paying by the drink for that consumption above that minimum threshold. So it's a hybrid subscription consumption model, which is actually quite interesting. And we've been saying, what would really be cool is if one of the on-prem penguins on the iceberg would actually jump in and offer a true consumption model right out of the box, as a disruptive move to the industry and to the cloud players, and take that risk. And I think that might happen once they feel comfortable with the financial model and they have nailed the product market fit, but right now, the model is what it is. And even AWS without post requires a threshold and a minimum commitment. So we'd love to see someone take that chance and offer true cloud consumption pricing to facilitate more experimentation and lower risk for the customer entry points. Now let's take a look at some of these players and see what kind of spending momentum they have. This is our popular XY chart-view that plots net score or spending velocity on the x-axis and market share or pervasiveness in the data set on the... Oh, sorry, net score or spending momentum on the y-axis and pervasiveness or market share on the x-axis. Now this is cut by cloud computing vendors, as defined by the customers responding. There were nearly 1500 respondents in the ETR survey, so a couple of points here. Note the red line is the elevated line. In other words, anything above that is considered really robust momentum. And no surprise, Azure, AWS and Google are above that line. Azure and AWS always battle it out for top share of voice in the x-axis in this survey. Now this, remember, is the July survey, but ETR, they gave me a sneak peek at the October results that they're going to be releasing in the coming week and Dell cloud and VMware cloud, which is VCF and maybe some other components, not VMware cloud and AWS, that's a separate beast, but those two are moving up in the y-axis. So they're demonstrating spending momentum. IBM is moving down and Oracle is at a respectable 20% on the y-axis. Now, interestingly, HPE and Lenovo don't show up in the cloud taxonomy, in that cloud cut, and neither does Cisco. I believe I'm correct in that this is an open-ended question, i.e., who are your cloud suppliers? So the customers are not resonating with that messaging yet, but I'm going to double check on that. Now to widen the aperture a bit, we said let's do a cut of the on-prem and cloud players within cloud accounts, so we can include HPE and Cisco and see how they're doing inside of cloud accounts. So that's what this chart does. It's a filter on 975 customers who identify themselves as cloud accounts. So here we were able to add in Cisco and HPE. Now, Lenovo still doesn't show up on the data. It shows up in laptops and desktops, but not as prominent in the enterprise, not prominent at all, but HPE Ezmeral did show up and it's moving forward in the October survey, again, part of the sneak peek. Ezmeral is HPE's data platform that they've introduced, combining the assets of MapR, BlueData and some other organic development. Now, as you can see, HPE and Cisco, they show up on the chart, as I said, and you can see the rope in the tug of war is starting to get a little bit more taut. The cloud guys have momentum and big account presence, but the on-prem folks also have big footprints, rich stacks and many have strong services arms, and a lot of customer affinity. So let's wrap with some comments about how this will shake out and what's some of the markers we can watch. Now, the first thing I'll say is we're starting to hear the right language come out of the vendor community. The idea that they're investing in a layer to abstract the underlying complexity of the clouds and on-prem infrastructure and turning the world into, essentially, a programmable interface to resources. The question is, what about giving access through that layer to underlying primitives in the public cloud? VMware has been very clear on this. They will facilitate that access. I believe Red Hat as well. So watch to the degree in which the large on-prem players are enabling that access for developers. We believe this is the right direction overall, but it's also very hard and it's going to require lots of resources and R & D. I would say at this point that each company has its respective strengths and weaknesses. I see HPE mostly focused today on making its on-prem offerings work like a cloud, whereas some of the others, VMware, Dell and Cisco, are stressing to a greater degree, in my view, enabling multi-cloud and edge connections, cross connections. Not that HPE isn't open to that when you ask them about it, but its marketing is more on-prem leaning, in my opinion. Now all of the traditional vendors, in my view, are still defensive about the cloud, although I would say much less so each day. Increasingly, they look at the public cloud as an opportunity to build value on top of that abstraction layer, if you will. As I said earlier, these on-prem guys, they all have ways to go. They're in the early stages of figuring out what a cloud operating model looks like, how it works, what services to offer, how to pay sellers and partners, but the public cloud vendors, they're miles ahead in that regard, but at the same time, they're navigating into on-prem territory. And they're very immature, in most cases. So how do they service all this stuff? How do they establish partnerships and so forth? And how do they build stacks on prem that are as rich as they are in the cloud? And what's their motivation to do that? Are they getting pulled, digging their heels in? Or are they really serious about it? Now, in some respects, Oracle is in the best position here in terms of hybrid maturity, but again, it's narrowly focused on the Red Stack. I would say the same for Pure Storage, more mature as a service, but narrowly focused, of course, on storage. Let's talk marketplace and ecosystems. One of the hallmarks of public clouds is optionality of tooling. Just all you do is go to the AWS Marketplace and you'll see what I mean. It's got this endless bevy of choices. It's got one of everything in there and you can buy directly from your AWS Console. So watch how the hybrid cloud plays out in terms of partner inclusion and ease of doing business, that's another sign of maturity. Let's talk developers and edge. This is by far the most important and biggest hole in the hybrid portfolios, outside the public cloud players. If you're going to build infrastructure as code, who do you expect to code it? How are the on-prem players cultivating developer communities? IBM paid 34 billion to buy its way in. Actually, in today's valuation terms, you might say that's looking like a good play, but still, that cash outlay is equal to one third of IBM's revenue. So big, big bet on OpenShift, but IBM's infrastructure strategy is fragmented and its cloud business, as IBM reports in its financial statements, is a services-heavy, kitchen sink set of offerings. It's very confusing. So they got to still do some clean up there, but they're serious about the architectural battle for hybrid cloud, as Arvind Krishna calls it. Now VMware, by cobbling together the misfit developer toys of the remnants from the EMC Federation, including Pivotal, is trying to get there. You know, but when you talk to customers, they're still not all in on VMware's developer affinity. Now Cisco has DevNet, but that's basically CCIE's and other trained networking engineers learning to code in languages like Python. It's not necessarily true devs, although they're upskilling. It's a start and they're investing, Cisco, that is, investing in the community, leveraging their champions, and I would say Dell could do the same with, for example, the numerous EMC storage admins that are out there. Now Oracle bought Sun to get Java, and that's a large community of developers, but even so, when you compare AWS and Microsoft ecosystems to the others, it's not even close in terms of developer affinity. So lots of work to be done there. One other point is Pure's acquisition of Portworx, again, while narrowly focused, is a good move and instructive of the changes going on in infrastructure. Now how does this all relate to the edge? Well, I'm not going to talk much about that today, but suffice to say, developers, in our view, will win the edge. And right now, they're coding in the cloud. Now they're often coding in the cloud and moving work on prem, wrapping them in containers, but watch how sticky that model is for the respective players. The other thing to watch is cadence of offerings. Another hallmark of cloud is a rapid expansion of features. The public cloud players don't appear to be slowing down and the on-prem folks seem to be accelerating. I've been watching HPE and GreenLake and their cadence of offerings, and watch how quickly the newbies of Azure Service can add functionality, I have no doubt Dell is going to be right there as well, as is Cisco and others. Also pay attention to financial metrics, watch how Azure Service impacts the income statements and how the companies deal with that because as you shift to deferred revenue models, it's going to hurt profitability. And I'm not worried about that at all because it won't hurt cashflow, or at least it shouldn't. As long as the companies communicate to Wall Street and they're transparent, i.e., they don't shift reporting definitions every year and a half or two years, but watch for metrics around retention and churn, RPO or Remaining Performance Obligations, billing versus bookings, increased average contract values, cohort selling, the impact on both gross margin and operating margin. These are the things you watch with SaaS companies and essentially, these big hardware players are becoming Azure Service slash SaaS companies. These are going to be the key indicators of success and the proof in the pudding of the transition to Azure Service. It should be positive for these companies, assuming they get the product market fit right, and can create a flywheel effect with their respective ecosystems and partner channels. Now I'm sure you can think of other important factors to watch, but I'm going to leave it here for now. Remember these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast and please subscribe, check out ETR's website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me, email david.vellante@siliconangle.com or you can DM me @dvellante. You can comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, everybody, stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (soft music)
SUMMARY :
From the theCUBE Studios and a data plan that spanned the states.
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Breaking Analysis: Chasing Snowflake in Database Boomtown
(upbeat music) >> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto, in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is braking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Database is the heart of enterprise computing. The market is both exploding and it's evolving. The major force is transforming the space include Cloud and data, of course, but also new workloads, advanced memory and IO capabilities, new processor types, a massive push towards simplicity, new data sharing and governance models, and a spate of venture investment. Snowflake stands out as the gold standard for operational excellence and go to market execution. The company has attracted the attention of customers, investors, and competitors and everyone from entrenched players to upstarts once in the act. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we'll share our most current thinking on the database marketplace and dig into Snowflake's execution. Some of its challenges and we'll take a look at how others are making moves to solve customer problems and try to get a piece of the growing database pie. Let's look at some of the factors that are driving market momentum. First, customers want lower license costs. They want simplicity. They want to avoid database sprawl. They want to run anywhere and manage new data types. These needs often are divergent and they pull vendors and technologies in different direction. It's really hard for any one platform to accommodate every customer need. The market is large and it's growing. Gardner has it at around 60 to 65 billion with a CAGR of somewhere around 20% over the next five years. But the market, as we know it is being redefined. Traditionally, databases have served two broad use cases, OLTP or transactions and reporting like data warehouses. But a diversity of workloads and new architectures and innovations have given rise to a number of new types of databases to accommodate all these diverse customer needs. Many billions have been spent over the last several years in venture money and it continues to pour in. Let me just give you some examples. Snowflake prior to its IPO, raised around 1.4 billion. Redis Labs has raised more than 1/2 billion dollars so far, Cockroach Labs, more than 350 million, Couchbase, 250 million, SingleStore formerly MemSQL, 238 million, Yellowbrick Data, 173 million. And if you stretch the definition of database a little bit to including low-code or no-code, Airtable has raised more than 600 million. And that's by no means a complete list. Now, why is all this investment happening? Well, in a large part, it's due to the TAM. The TAM is huge and it's growing and it's being redefined. Just how big is this market? Let's take a look at a chart that we've shown previously. We use this chart to Snowflakes TAM, and it focuses mainly on the analytics piece, but we'll use it here to really underscore the market potential. So the actual database TAM is larger than this, we think. Cloud and Cloud-native technologies have changed the way we think about databases. Virtually 100% of the database players that they're are in the market have pivoted to a Cloud first strategy. And many like Snowflake, they're pretty dogmatic and have a Cloud only strategy. Databases has historically been very difficult to manage, they're really sensitive to latency. So that means they require a lot of tuning. Cloud allows you to throw virtually infinite resources on demand and attack performance problems and scale very quickly, minimizing the complexity and tuning nuances. This idea, this layer of data as a service we think of it as a staple of digital transformation. Is this layer that's forming to support things like data sharing across ecosystems and the ability to build data products or data services. It's a fundamental value proposition of Snowflake and one of the most important aspects of its offering. Snowflake tracks a metric called edges, which are external connections in its data Cloud. And it claims that 15% of its total shared connections are edges and that's growing at 33% quarter on quarter. This notion of data sharing is changing the way people think about data. We use terms like data as an asset. This is the language of the 2010s. We don't share our assets with others, do we? No, we protect them, we secure or them, we even hide them. But we absolutely don't want to share those assets but we do want to share our data. I had a conversation recently with Forrester analyst, Michelle Goetz. And we both agreed we're going to scrub data as an asset from our phrasiology. Increasingly, people are looking at sharing as a way to create, as I said, data products or data services, which can be monetized. This is an underpinning of Zhamak Dehghani's concept of a data mesh, make data discoverable, shareable and securely governed so that we can build data products and data services that can be monetized. This is where the TAM just explodes and the market is redefining. And we think is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Let's talk a little bit about the diversity of offerings in the marketplace. Again, databases used to be either transactional or analytic. The bottom lines and top lines. And this chart here describe those two but the types of databases, you can see the middle of mushrooms, just looking at this list, blockchain is of course a specialized type of database and it's also finding its way into other database platforms. Oracle is notable here. Document databases that support JSON and graph data stores that assist in visualizing data, inference from multiple different sources. That's is one of the ways in which adtech has taken off and been so effective. Key Value stores, log databases that are purpose-built, machine learning to enhance insights, spatial databases to help build the next generation of products, the next automobile, streaming databases to manage real time data flows and time series databases. We might've missed a few, let us know if you think we have, but this is a kind of pretty comprehensive list that is somewhat mind boggling when you think about it. And these unique requirements, they've spawned tons of innovation and companies. Here's a small subset on this logo slide. And this is by no means an exhaustive list, but you have these companies here which have been around forever like Oracle and IBM and Teradata and Microsoft, these are the kind of the tier one relational databases that have matured over the years. And they've got properties like atomicity, consistency, isolation, durability, what's known as ACID properties, ACID compliance. Some others that you may or may not be familiar with, Yellowbrick Data, we talked about them earlier. It's going after the best price, performance and analytics and optimizing to take advantage of both hybrid installations and the latest hardware innovations. SingleStore, as I said, formerly known as MemSQL is a very high end analytics and transaction database, supports mixed workloads, extremely high speeds. We're talking about trillions of rows per second that could be ingested in query. Couchbase with hybrid transactions and analytics, Redis Labs, open source, no SQL doing very well, as is Cockroach with distributed SQL, MariaDB with its managed MySQL, Mongo and document database has a lot of momentum, EDB, which supports open source Postgres. And if you stretch the definition a bit, Splunk, for log database, why not? ChaosSearch, really interesting startup that leaves data in S-3 and is going after simplifying the ELK stack, New Relic, they have a purpose-built database for application performance management and we probably could have even put Workday in the mix as it developed a specialized database for its apps. Of course, we can't forget about SAP with how not trying to pry customers off of Oracle. And then the big three Cloud players, AWS, Microsoft and Google with extremely large portfolios of database offerings. The spectrum of products in this space is very wide, with you've got AWS, which I think we're up to like 16 database offerings, all the way to Oracle, which has like one database to do everything not withstanding MySQL because it owns MySQL got that through the Sun Acquisition. And it recently, it made some innovations there around the heat wave announcement. But essentially Oracle is investing to make its database, Oracle database run any workload. While AWS takes the approach of the right tool for the right job and really focuses on the primitives for each database. A lot of ways to skin a cat in this enormous and strategic market. So let's take a look at the spending data for the names that make it into the ETR survey. Not everybody we just mentioned will be represented because they may not have quite the market presence of the ends in the survey, but ETR that capture a pretty nice mix of players. So this chart here, it's one of the favorite views that we like to share quite often. It shows the database players across the 1500 respondents in the ETR survey this past quarter and it measures their net score. That's spending momentum and is shown on the vertical axis and market share, which is the pervasiveness in the data set is on the horizontal axis. The Snowflake is notable because it's been hovering around 80% net score since the survey started picking them up. Anything above 40%, that red line there, is considered by us to be elevated. Microsoft and AWS, they also stand out because they have both market presence and they have spending velocity with their platforms. Oracle is very large but it doesn't have the spending momentum in the survey because nearly 30% of Oracle installations are spending less, whereas only 22% are spending more. Now as a caution, this survey doesn't measure dollar spent and Oracle will be skewed toward the big customers with big budgets. So you got to consider that caveat when evaluating this data. IBM is in a similar position although its market share is not keeping up with Oracle's. Google, they've got great tech especially with BigQuery and it has elevated momentum. So not a bad spot to be in although I'm sure it would like to be closer to AWS and Microsoft on the horizontal axis, so it's got some work to do there. And some of the others we mentioned earlier, like MemSQL, Couchbase. As shown MemSQL here, they're now SingleStore. Couchbase, Reddis, Mongo, MariaDB, all very solid scores on the vertical axis. Cloudera just announced that it was selling to private equity and that will hopefully give it some time to invest in this platform and get off the quarterly shot clock. MapR was acquired by HPE and it's part of HPE's Ezmeral platform, their data platform which doesn't yet have the market presence in the survey. Now, something that is interesting in looking at in Snowflakes earnings last quarter, is this laser focused on large customers. This is a hallmark of Frank Slootman and Mike Scarpelli who I know they don't have a playbook but they certainly know how to go whale hunting. So this chart isolates the data that we just showed you to the global 1000. Note that both AWS and Snowflake go up higher on the X-axis meaning large customers are spending at a faster rate for these two companies. The previous chart had an end of 161 for Snowflake, and a 77% net score. This chart shows the global 1000, in the end there for Snowflake is 48 accounts and the net score jumps to 85%. We're not going to show it here but when you isolate the ETR data, nice you can just cut it, when you isolate it on the fortune 1000, the end for Snowflake goes to 59 accounts in the data set and Snowflake jumps another 100 basis points in net score. When you cut the data by the fortune 500, the Snowflake N goes to 40 accounts and the net score jumps another 200 basis points to 88%. And when you isolate on the fortune 100 accounts is only 18 there but it's still 18, their net score jumps to 89%, almost 90%. So it's very strong confirmation that there's a proportional relationship between larger accounts and spending momentum in the ETR data set. So Snowflakes large account strategy appears to be working. And because we think Snowflake is sticky, this probably is a good sign for the future. Now we've been talking about net score, it's a key measure in the ETR data set, so we'd like to just quickly remind you what that is and use Snowflake as an example. This wheel chart shows the components of net score, that lime green is new adoptions. 29% of the customers in the ETR dataset that are new to Snowflake. That's pretty impressive. 50% of the customers are spending more, that's the forest green, 20% are flat, that's the gray, and only 1%, the pink, are spending less. And 0% zero or replacing Snowflake, no defections. What you do here to get net scores, you subtract the red from the green and you get a net score of 78%. Which is pretty sick and has been sick as in good sick and has been steady for many, many quarters. So that's how the net score methodology works. And remember, it typically takes Snowflake customers many months like six to nine months to start consuming it's services at the contracted rate. So those 29% new adoptions, they're not going to kick into high gear until next year, so that bodes well for future revenue. Now, it's worth taking a quick snapshot at Snowflakes most recent quarter, there's plenty of stuff out there that you can you can google and get a summary but let's just do a quick rundown. The company's product revenue run rate is now at 856 million they'll surpass $1 billion on a run rate basis this year. The growth is off the charts very high net revenue retention. We've explained that before with Snowflakes consumption pricing model, they have to account for retention differently than what a SaaS company. Snowflake added 27 net new $1 million accounts in the quarter and claims to have more than a hundred now. It also is just getting its act together overseas. Slootman says he's personally going to spend more time in Europe, given his belief, that the market is huge and they can disrupt it and of course he's from the continent. He was born there and lived there and gross margins expanded, do in a large part to renegotiation of its Cloud costs. Welcome back to that in a moment. Snowflake it's also moving from a product led growth company to one that's more focused on core industries. Interestingly media and entertainment is one of the largest along with financial services and it's several others. To me, this is really interesting because Disney's example that Snowflake often puts in front of its customers as a reference. And it seems to me to be a perfect example of using data and analytics to both target customers and also build so-called data products through data sharing. Snowflake has to grow its ecosystem to live up to its lofty expectations and indications are that large SIS are leaning in big time. Deloitte cross the $100 million in deal flow in the quarter. And the balance sheet's looking good. Thank you very much with $5 billion in cash. The snarks are going to focus on the losses, but this is all about growth. This is a growth story. It's about customer acquisition, it's about adoption, it's about loyalty and it's about lifetime value. Now, as I said at the IPO, and I always say this to young people, don't buy a stock at the IPO. There's probably almost always going to be better buying opportunities ahead. I'm not always right about that, but I often am. Here's a chart of Snowflake's performance since IPO. And I have to say, it's held up pretty well. It's trading above its first day close and as predicted there were better opportunities than day one but if you have to make a call from here. I mean, don't take my stock advice, do your research. Snowflake they're priced to perfection. So any disappointment is going to be met with selling. You saw that the day after they beat their earnings last quarter because their guidance in revenue growth,. Wasn't in the triple digits, it sort of moderated down to the 80% range. And they pointed, they pointed to a new storage compression feature that will lower customer costs and consequently, it's going to lower their revenue. I swear, I think that that before earnings calls, Scarpelli sits back he's okay, what kind of creative way can I introduce the dampen enthusiasm for the guidance. Now I'm not saying lower storage costs will translate into lower revenue for a period of time. But look at dropping storage prices, customers are always going to buy more, that's the way the storage market works. And stuff like did allude to that in all fairness. Let me introduce something that people in Silicon Valley are talking about, and that is the Cloud paradox for SaaS companies. And what is that? I was a clubhouse room with Martin Casado of Andreessen when I first heard about this. He wrote an article with Sarah Wang, calling it to question the merits of SaaS companies sticking with Cloud at scale. Now the basic premise is that for startups in early stages of growth, the Cloud is a no brainer for SaaS companies, but at scale, the cost of Cloud, the Cloud bill approaches 50% of the cost of revenue, it becomes an albatross that stifles operating leverage. Their conclusion ended up saying that as much as perhaps as much as the back of the napkin, they admitted that, but perhaps as much as 1/2 a trillion dollars in market cap is being vacuumed away by the hyperscalers that could go to the SaaS providers as cost savings from repatriation. And that Cloud repatriation is an inevitable path for large SaaS companies at scale. I was particularly interested in this as I had recently put on a post on the Cloud repatriation myth. I think in this instance, there's some merit to their conclusions. But I don't think it necessarily bleeds into traditional enterprise settings. But for SaaS companies, maybe service now has it right running their own data centers or maybe a hybrid approach to hedge bets and save money down the road is prudent. What caught my attention in reading through some of the Snowflake docs, like the S-1 in its most recent 10-K were comments regarding long-term purchase commitments and non-cancelable contracts with Cloud companies. And the companies S-1, for example, there was disclosure of $247 million in purchase commitments over a five plus year period. And the company's latest 10-K report, that same line item jumped to 1.8 billion. Now Snowflake is clearly managing these costs as it alluded to when its earnings call. But one has to wonder, at some point, will Snowflake follow the example of say Dropbox which Andreessen used in his blog and start managing its own IT? Or will it stick with the Cloud and negotiate hard? Snowflake certainly has the leverage. It has to be one of Amazon's best partners and customers even though it competes aggressively with Redshift but on the earnings call, CFO Scarpelli said, that Snowflake was working on a new chip technology to dramatically increase performance. What the heck does that mean? Is this Snowflake is not becoming a hardware company? So I going to have to dig into that a little bit and find out what that it means. I'm guessing, it means that it's taking advantage of ARM-based processes like graviton, which many ISVs ar allowing their software to run on that lower cost platform. Or maybe there's some deep dark in the weeds secret going on inside Snowflake, but I doubt it. We're going to leave all that for there for now and keep following this trend. So it's clear just in summary that Snowflake they're the pace setter in this new exciting world of data but there's plenty of room for others. And they still have a lot to prove. For instance, one customer in ETR, CTO round table express skepticism that Snowflake will live up to its hype because its success is going to lead to more competition from well-established established players. This is a common theme you hear it all the time. It's pretty easy to reach that conclusion. But my guess is this the exact type of narrative that fuels Slootman and sucked him back into this game of Thrones. That's it for now, everybody. Remember, these episodes they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search braking analysis podcast and please subscribe to series. Check out ETR his website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikinbon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me, Email is David.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me at DVelante on Twitter or comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week everybody, be well and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)
SUMMARY :
This is braking analysis and the net score jumps to 85%.
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Breaking Analysis: Tech Spending Powers the Roaring 2020s as Cloud Remains a Staple of Growth
>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Last year in 2020 it was good to be in tech and even better to be in the cloud, as organizations had to rely on remote cloud services to keep things running. We believe that tech spending will increase seven to 8% in 2021. But we don't expect investments in cloud computing to sharply attenuate, when workers head back to the office. It's not a zero sum game, and we believe that pent up demand in on-prem data centers will complement those areas of high growth that we saw last year, namely cloud, AI, security, data and automation. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis we'll provide our take on the latest ETR COVID survey, and share why we think the tech boom will continue, well into the future. So let's take a look at the state of tech spending. Fitch Ratings has upped its outlook for global GDP to 6.1% for January's 5.3% projection. We've always expected tech spending to outperform GDP by at least 100 to 200 basis points, so we think 2021 could see 8% growth for the tech sector. That's a massive swing from last year's,5% contraction, and it's being powered by spending in North America, a return of small businesses, and, the massive fiscal stimulus injection from the U.S led central bank actions. As we'll show you, the ETR survey data suggests that cloud spending is here to stay, and a dollar spent back in the data center doesn't necessarily mean less spending on digital initiatives, generally and cloud specifically. Moreover, we see pent up demand for core on-prem data center infrastructure, especially networking. Now one caveat, is we continue to have concerns for the macro on-prem data storage sector. There are pockets of positivity, for example, pure storage seems to have accelerating momentum. But generally the data suggests the cloud and flash headroom, continue, to pressure spending on storage. Now we don't expect the stock market's current rotation out of tech. We don't expect that that changes the fundamental spending dynamic. We see cloud, AI and ML, RPA, cybersecurity and collaboration investments still hovering above, that 40% net score. Actually cybersecurity is not quite there, but it is a priority area for CIOs. We'll talk about that more later. And we expect that those high growth sectors will stay steady in ETRs April survey along with continued spending on application modernization in the form of containers. Now let me take a moment to comment on the recent action in tech stocks. If you've been following the market, you know that the rate on the 10-year Treasury note has been rising. This is important, because the 10 years of benchmark, and it affects other interest rates. As interest rates rise, high growth tech stocks, they become less attractive. And that's why there's been a rotation, out of the big tech high flyer names of 2020. So why do high growth stocks become less attractive to investors when interest rates rise? Well, it's because investors are betting on the future value of cash flows for these companies, and when interest rates go up, the future values of those cash flows shrink, making the valuations less attractive. Let's take an example. Snowflake is a company with a higher revenue multiple than pretty much any other stock, out there in the tech industry. Revenues at the company are growing more than 100%, last quarter, and they're projected to have a revenue of a billion dollars next year. Now on March 8th, Snowflake was valued at around $80 billion and was trading at roughly 75x forward revenue. Today, toward the middle the end of March. Snowflake is valued at about 50 billion or roughly 45x forward revenue. So lower growth companies that throw off more cash today, become more attractive in a rising rate climate because, the cash they throw off today is more valuable than it was in a low rate environment. The cash is there today versus, a high flying tech company where the cash is coming down the road and doesn't have to be discounted on a net present value basis. So the point is, this is really about math, not about fundamental changes in spending. Now the ETR spending data has shown, consistent upward momentum, and that cycle is continuing, leading to our sanguine outlook for the sector. This chart here shows the progression of CIO expectations on spending over time, relative to previous years. And you can see the steady growth in expectations each quarter, hitting 6% growth in 2021 versus 2020 for the full year. ETR estimates show and they do this with a 95% confidence level, that spending is going to be up between 5.1 to 6.8% this year. We are even more up optimistic accounting for recent upward revisions in GDP. And spending outside the purview of traditional IT, which we think will be a tailwind, due to digital initiatives and shadow tech spending. ETR covers some of that, but it is really a CIO heavy survey. So there's some parts that we think can grow even faster, than ETR survey suggests. Now the positive spending outlook, it's broad based across virtually all industries that ETR tracks. Government spending leads the pack by a wide margin, which probably gives you a little bit of heartburn. I know it does for me, yikes. Healthcare is interesting. Perhaps due to pent up demand, healthcare has been so busy saving lives, that it has some holes to fill. But look at the sectors at 5% or above. Only education really lags notably. Even energy which got crushed last year, showing a nice rebound. Now let's take a look at some of the strategies that organizations have employed during COVID, and see how they've changed. Look, the picture is actually quite positive in our view. This data shows the responses over five survey snapshots, starting in March of 2020. Most people are still working from home that really hasn't changed much. But we're finally seeing some loosening of the travel restrictions imposed last year, is a notable drop in canceled business trips. It's still high, but it's very promising trend. Quick aside, looks like Mobile World Congress is happening in late June in Barcelona. The host of the conference just held a show in Shanghai and 20,000 attendees showed up. theCube is planning to be there in Barcelona along with TelcoDr, Who took over Ericsson's 65,000 square foot space, when Ericsson tapped out of the conference. We are good together we're going to lay out the future of the digital telco, in a hybrid: physical slash virtual event. With the ecosystem of telcos, cloud, 5G and software communities. We're very excited to be at the heart of reinventing the event experience for the coming decade. Okay, back to the data. Hiring freezes, way down. Look at new IT deployments near flat from last quarter, with big uptick from a year ago. Layoffs, trending downward, that's really a positive. Hiring momentum is there. So really positive signs for tech in this data. Now let's take a look at the work from home, survey data. We've been sharing this for several quarters now, remember, the data showed that pre pandemic around 15 to 16% of employees worked remotely. And we had been sharing the CIO is expected that figure to slowly decline from the 70% pandemic levels and come into the spring in the summer, hovering in the 50% range. But then eventually landing in the mid 30s. Now the current survey shows 31%. So, essentially, it's exactly double from the pre COVID levels. It's going to be really interesting to see because across the board organizations are reporting, big increases in productivity as a result of how they've responded to COVID in the remote work practices and the infrastructure that's been put in place. And look, a lot of workers are expecting to stay remote. So we'll see where this actually lands. My personal feelings, the number is going to be higher than the low 30s. Perhaps well into the mid to upper 30s. Now let's take a look at the cloud and on-prem MCS. So were a little bit out on a limb here with a can't have a cake and eat it too scenario. Meaning pent up demand for data center infrastructure on-prem is going to combine with the productivity benefits of cloud in the digital imperative. So that means that technology budgets are going to get a bigger piece of the overall spending pie, relative to other initiatives. At least for the near term. ETR asked respondents about how the return to physical, is going to impact on-prem architectures and applications. You can see 63% of the respondents, had a cloud friendly answer, as shown in the first two bars. Whereas 30% had an on-prem friendly answer, as shown in the next three bars. Now, what stands out, is that only 5% of respondents plan to increase their on-prem spend to above pre COVID levels. Sarbjeet Johal pinged me last night and asked me to jump into a clubhouse session with Martin Casado and the other guys from Andreessen Horowitz. They were having this conversation about the coming cloud backlash. And how cloud native companies are spending so much, too much, in their opinion, on AWS and other clouds. And at some point, as they scale, they're going to have to claw back technology infrastructure on-prem, due to their AWS vague. I don't know. This data, it certainly does not suggest that that is happening today. So the cloud vendors, they keep getting more volume, you would think they're going to have better prices and better economies of scales than we'll see on-prem. And as we pointed out, the repatriation narrative that you hear from many on-prem vendors is kind of dubious. Look, if AWS Azure, and Google can't provide IT infrastructure and better security than I can on-prem, then something is amiss. Now however, they are creating an oligopoly. And if they get too greedy and get hooked on the margin crack, of cloud, they'd better be careful, or they're going to become the next regulated utility? So, it's going to be interesting to see if the Andreessen scenario has (laughs) legs, maybe they have another agenda, maybe a lot of their portfolio companies, have ideas are around doing things to help on-prem? Why are we so optimistic that we'll see a stronger 2021 on-prem spend if the cloud continues to command so much attention? Well, first, because nearly 20% of customers say there will be an uptick in on-prem spending. Second, we saw in 2020, that the big on-prem players, Dell, VMware, Oracle, and SAP in particular, and even IBM made it through, okay. And they've managed to figure out how to work through the crisis. And finally, we think that the lines between on-prem and cloud, and hybrid and cross cloud and edge will blur over the next five years. We've talked about this a lot, that abstraction layer that we see coming, and there's some real value opportunities there. It'll take some time. But we do see there, that the traditional vendors, are going to attack those new opportunities and create value across clouds and hybrid systems and out to the edge. Now, as those demarcation lines become more gray, a hybrid world is emerging that is going to require hardware and software investments that reduce latency and are proximate to users buildings and distributed infrastructure. So we see spending in certain key areas, continuing to be strong across the board, will require connecting on-prem to cloud in edge workloads. Here's where it CIOs see the action, asked to cite the technologies that will get the most attention in the next 12 months. These seven stood out among the rest. No surprise that cyber comes out as top priority, with cloud pretty high as well. But interesting to see the uptick in collaboration in networking. Execs are seeing the importance of collaboration technologies for remote workers. No doubt, there's lots of Microsoft Teams in that bar. But there's some pent up demand it seems for networking, we find that very interesting. Now, just to put this in context, in a spending context. We'll share a graphic from a previous breaking analysis episode. This chart shows the net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis. And the market share or pervasiveness in the ETR data set on the horizontal axis. The big four areas of spend momentum are cloud, ML and AI, containers in RPA. This is from the January survey, we don't expect a big change in the upcoming April data, we'll see. But these four stand out above the 40% line that we've highlighted, which to us is an indicator of elevated momentum. Now, note on the horizontal axis only cloud, cloud is the only sector that enjoys both greater than 60% market share on the x axis, and is above the 40% net score line and the y axis. So even though security is a top priority as we were talking about earlier. It competes with other budget items, still right there certainly on the horizontal axis, but it competes with other initiatives for that spend momentum. Okay, so key takeaways. Seven to 8% tech spending growth expected for 2021. Cloud is leading the charge, it's big and it has spending momentum, so we don't expect a big rotation out of cloud back to on-prem. Now, having said that, we think on-prem will benefit from a return to a post isolation economy. Because of that pent up demand. But we caution we think there are some headwinds, particularly in the storage sector. Rotation away from tech in the stock market is not based on a fundamental change in spending in our view, or demand, rather it's stock market valuation math. So there should be some good buying opportunities for you in the coming months. As money moves out of tech into those value stocks. But the market is very hard to predict. Oh 2020 was easy to make money. All you had to do is buy high growth and momentum tech stocks on dips. 2021 It's not that simple. So you got to do your homework. And as we always like to stress, formulate a thesis and give it time to work for you. Iterate and improve when you feel like it's not working for you. But stay current, and be true to your strategy. Okay, that's it for today. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. So please subscribe. I publish weekly in siliconangle.com and wikibond.com and always appreciate the comments on LinkedIn. You can DM me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. Don't forget to check out etr.plus where all the survey data science actually resides. Some really interesting things that they're about to launch. So do follow that. This is Dave vellante. Thanks for watching theCube Insights powered by ETR. Good health to you, be safe and we'll see you next time.
SUMMARY :
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Deep Dive into ThoughtSpot One | Beyond.2020 Digital
>>Yeah, >>yeah. Hello and welcome to this track to creating engaging analytics experiences for all. I'm Hannah Sinden Thought spots Omiya director of marketing on. I'm delighted to have you here today. A boy Have we got to show for you now? I might be a little bit biased as the host of this track, but in my humble opinion, you've come to a great place to start because this track is all about everything. Thought spot. We'll be talking about embedded search in a I thought spot one spot I. Q. We've got great speakers from both thoughts about andare customers as well as some cool product demos. But it's not all product talk. We'll be looking at how to leverage the tech to give your users a great experience. So first up is our thoughts about one deep dive. This session will be showing you how we've built on our already superb search experience to make it even easier for users across your company to get insight. We've got some great speakers who are going to be telling you about the cool stuff they've been working on to make it really fantastic and easy for non technical people to get the answers they need. So I'm really delighted to introduce Bob Baxley s VP of design and experience That thought spot on Vishal Kyocera Thought spots director of product management. So without further ado, I'll hand it over to Bob. Thanks, >>Hannah. It's great to be here with everybody today and really excited to be able to present to you thought spot one. We've been working on this for months and months and are super excited to share it before we get to the demo with Shawl, though, I just want to set things up a little bit to help people understand how we think about design here. A thought spot. The first thing is that we really try to think in terms of thought. Spot is a consumer grade product, terms what we wanted. Consumer grade you x for an analytics. And that means that for reference points rather than looking at other enterprise software companies, we tend to look at well known consumer brands like Google, YouTube and WhatsApp. We firmly believe that people are people, and it doesn't matter if they're using software for their own usage or thought are they're using software at work We wanted to have a great experience. The second piece that we were considering with thoughts about one is really what we call the desegregation of bundles. So instead of having all of your insights wraps strictly into dashboards, we want to allow users to get directly to individual answers. This is similar to what we saw in music. Were instead of you having to buy the entire album, of course, you could just buy individual songs. You see this in iTunes, Spotify and others course. Another key idea was really getting rid of gate keepers and curators and kind of changing people from owning the information, helping enable users to gather together the most important and interesting insights So you can follow curator rather than feeling like you're limited in the types of information you can get. And finally, we wanted to make search the primary way, for people are thinking about thought spot. As you'll see, we've extended search from beyond simply searching for your data toe, also searching to be able to find pin boards and answers that have been created by other people. So with that, I'll turn it over to my good friend Rachel Thio introduce more of thought, spot one and to show you a demo of the product. >>Thank you, Bob. It's a pleasure to be here to Hello, everyone. My name is Michelle and Andy, product management for Search. And I'm really, really excited to be here talking about thoughts about one our Consumer analytics experience in the Cloud. Now, for my part of the talk, we're gonna first to a high level overview of thoughts about one. Then we're going to dive into a demo, and then we're gonna close with just a few thoughts about what's coming next. So, without any today, let's get started now at thought spot. Our mission is to empower every user regardless of their expertise, to easily engage with data on make better data driven decisions. We want every user, the nurse, the neighborhood barista, the teacher, the sales person, everyone to be able to do their jobs better by using data now with thoughts about one. We've made it even more intuitive for all these business users to easily connect with the insights that are most relevant for them, and we've made it even easier for analysts to do their jobs more effectively and more efficiently. So what does thoughts about one have? There's a lot off cool new features, but they all fall into three main categories. The first main category is enhanced search capabilities. The second is a brand new homepage that's built entirely for you, and the third is powerful tools for the analysts that make them completely self service and boost their productivity. So let's see how these work Thought Spot is the pioneer for search driven analytics. We invented search so that business users can ask questions of data and create new insights. But over the years we realized that there was one key piece off functionality that was missing from our search, and that was the ability to discover insights and content that had already been created. So to clarify, our search did allow users to create new content, but we until now did not have the ability to search existing content. Now, why does that matter? Let's take an example. I am a product manager and I am always in thought spot, asking questions to better understand how are users are using the product so we can improve it now. Like me, A lot of my colleagues are doing the same thing. Ah, lot of questions that I asked have already been answered either completely are almost completely by many of my colleagues, but until now there's been no easy way for me to benefit from their work. And so I end up recreating insights that already exists, leading to redundant work that is not good for the productivity off the organization. In addition, even though our search technology is really intuitive, it does require a little bit of familiarity with the underlying data. You do need to know what metric you care about and what grouping you care about so that you can articulate your questions and create new insights. Now, if I consider in New employees product manager who joins Hotspot today and wants to ask questions, then the first time they use thought spot, they may not have that data familiarity. So we went back to the drawing board and asked ourselves, Well, how can we augment our search so that we get rid off or reduced the redundant work that I described? And in addition, empower users, even new users with very little expertise, maybe with no data familiarity, to succeed in getting answers to their questions the first time they used Hot Spot, and we're really proud and excited to announce search answers. Search answers allows users to search across existing content to get answers to their questions, and its a great compliment to search data, which allows them to search the underlying data directly to create new content. Now, with search answers were shipping in number of cool features like Answer Explainer, Personalized search Results, Answer Explorer, etcetera that make it really intuitive and powerful. And we'll see how all of these work in action in the demo. Our brand new homepage makes it easier than ever for all these business users to connect with the insights that are most relevant to them. These insights could be insights that these users already know about and want to track regularly. For example, as you can see, the monitor section at the top center of the screen thes air, the KP eyes that I may care most about, and I may want to look at them every day, and I can see them every day right here on my home page. By the way, there's a monitoring these metrics in the bankrupt these insights that I want to connect with could also be insights that I want to know more about the search experience that I just spoke about ISS seamlessly integrated into the home page. So right here from the home page, I can fire my searchers and ask whatever questions I want. Finally, and most interestingly, the homepage also allows me to connect with insights that I should know about, even if I didn't explicitly ask for them. So what's an example? If you look at the panel on the right, I can discover insights that are trending in my organization. If I look at the panel on the left, I can discover insights based on my social graph based on the people that I'm following. Now you might wonder, How do we create this personalized home page? Well, our brand new, personalized on boarding experience makes it a piece of cake as a new business user. The very first time I log into thought spot, I pay three people I want to follow and three metrics that I want to follow, and I picked these from a pool of suggestions that Ai has generated. And just like that, the new home page gets created. And let's not forget about analysts. We have a personalized on boarding experience specifically for analysts that's optimized for their needs. Now, speaking of analysts, I do want to talk about the tools that I spoke off earlier that made the analysts completely self service and greatly boost their productivity's. We want analysts to go from zero to search in less than 30 minutes, and with our with our new augmented data modeling features and thoughts about one, they can do just that. They get a guided experience where they can connect, model and visualize their data. With just a few clicks, our AI engine takes care off a number of tasks, including figuring out joints and, you know, cleaning up column names. In fact, our AI engine also helps them create a number of answers to get started quickly so that these analysts can spend their time and energy on what matters most answering the most complicated and challenging and impactful questions for the business. So I spoke about a number of different capabilities off thoughts about one, but let's not forget that they are all packaged in a delightful user experience designed by Bob and his team, and it powers really, really intuitive and powerful user flows, from personalized on boarding to searching to discover insights that already exist on that are ranked based on personalized algorithms to making refinements to these insights with a assistance to searching, to create brand new insights from scratch. And finally sharing all the insights that you find interesting with your colleagues so that it drives conversations, decisions and, most importantly, actions so that your business can improve. With that said, let's drive right into the demo for this demo. We're going to use sales data set for a company that runs a chain off retail stores selling apparel. Our user is a business user. Her name is Charlotte. She's a merchandiser, She's new to this company, and she is going to be leading the genes broader category. She's really excited about job. She wants to use data to make better decisions, so she comes to thought spot, and this is what she sees. There are three main sections on the home page that she comes to. The central section allows you to browse through items that she has access to and filter them in various ways. Based for example, on author or on tags or based on what she has favorited. The second section is this panel on the right hand side, which allows her to discover insights that are trending within her company. This is based on what other people within her company are viewing and also personalized to her. Finally, there's this search box that seamlessly integrated into the home page. Now Charlotte is really curious to learn how the business is doing. She wants to learn more about sales for the business, so she goes to the search box and searches for sales, and you can see that she's taken to a page with search results. Charlotte start scanning the search results, and she sees the first result is very relevant. It shows her what the quarterly results were for the last year, but the result that really catches her attention is regional sales. She'd love to better understand how sales are broken down by regions. Now she's interested in the search result, but she doesn't yet want to commit to clicking on it and going to that result. She wants to learn more about this result before she does that, and she could do that very easily simply by clicking anywhere on the search result card. Doing that reveals our answer. Explain our technology and you can see this information panel on the right side. It shows more details about the search results that she selected, and it also gives her an easy to understand explanation off the data that it contains. You can see that it tells her that the metrics sales it's grouped by region and splitter on last year. She can also click on this preview button to see a preview off the chart that she would see if she went to that result. It shows her that region is going to be on the X axis and sales on the Y axis. All of this seems interesting to her, and she wants to learn more. So she clicks on this result, and she's brought to this chart now. This contains the most up to date data, and she can interact with this data. Now, as she's looking at this data, she learns that Midwest is the region with the highest sales, and it has a little over $23 million in sales, and South is the region with the lowest sales, and it has about $4.24 million in sales. Now, as Charlotte is looking at this chart, she's reminded off a conversation she had with Suresh, another new hire at the company who she met at orientation just that morning. Suresh is responsible for leading a few different product categories for the Western region off the business, and she thinks that he would find this chart really useful Now she can share this chart with Suresh really easily from right here by clicking the share button. As Charlotte continues to look at this chart and understand the data, she thinks, uh, that would be great for her to understand. How do these sales numbers across regions look for just the genes product category, since that's the product category that she is going to be leading? And she can easily narrow this data to just the genes category by using her answer Explorer technology. This panel on the right hand side allows her to make the necessary refinements. Now she can do that simply by typing in the search box, or she can pick from one off the AI generated suggestions that are personalized for her now. In this case, the AI has already suggested genes as a prototype for her. So with just a single click, she can narrow the data to show sales data for just jeans broken down by region. And she can see that Midwest is still the region with the highest sales for jeans, with $1.35 million in sales. Now let's spend a minute thinking about what we just saw. This is the first time that Charlotte is using Thought spot. She does not know anything about the data sources. She doesn't know anything about measures or attributes. She doesn't know the names of the columns. And yet she could get to insights that are relevant for her really easily using a search interface that's very much like Google. And as she started interacting with search results, she started building a slightly better understanding off the underlying data. When she found an insight that she thought would be useful to a colleague offers, it was really seamless for her to share it with that colleague from where she Waas. Also, even though she's searching over content that has already been created by her colleagues in search answers. She was in no way restricted to exactly that data as we just saw. She could refine the data in an insight that she found by narrowing it. And there's other things you can do so she could interact with the data for the inside that she finds using search answers. Let's take a slightly more complex question that Charlotte may have. Let's assume she wanted to learn about sales broken down by, um, by category so that she can compare her vertical, which is jeans toe other verticals within the company. Again, she can see that the very first result that she gets is very relevant. It shows her search Sorry, sales by category for last year. But what really catches her attention about this result is the name of the author. She's thrilled to note that John, who is the author of this result, was also an instructor for one off for orientation sessions and clearly someone who has a lot of insight into the sales data at this company. Now she would love to see mawr results by John, and to do that, all she has to do is to click on his name now all of the search results are only those that have been authored by John. In fact, this whole panel at the top of the results allow her to filter her search results or sort them in different ways. By clicking on these authors filter, she can discover other authors who are reputed for the topic that she's searching for. She can also filter by tags, and she can sort these results in different ways. This whole experience off doing a search and then filtering search results easily is similar to how we use e commerce search engines in the consumer world. For example, Amazon, where you may search for a product and then filter by price range or filter by brand. For example, Let's also spend a minute talking about how do we determine relevance for these results and how they're ranked. Um, when considering relevance for these results, we consider three main categories of things. We want to first make sure that the result is in fact relevant to the question that the user is asking, and for that we look at various fields within the result. We look at the title, the author, the description, but also the technical query underpinning that result. We also want to make sure that the results are trustworthy, because we want users to be able to make business decisions based on the results that they find. And for that we look at a number of signals as well. For example, how popular that result is is one of those signals. And finally, we want to make sure the results are relevant to the users themselves. So we look at signals to personalize the result for that user. So those are all the different categories of signals that we used to determine overall ranking for a search result. You may be wondering what happens if if Charlotte asks a question for which nobody has created any answer, so no answers exist. Let's say she wants to know what the total sales of genes for last year and no one's created that well. It's really easy for her to switch from searching for answers, which is searching for content that has already been created to searching the data directly so she can create a new insight from scratch. Let's see how that works. She could just click here, and now she's in the search data in her face and for the question that I just talked about. She can just type genes sales last year. And just like that, she could get an answer to her question. The total sales for jeans last year were almost $4.6 million. As you can see, the two modes off search searching for answers and searching, the data are complementary, and it's really easy to switch from one to the other. Now we understand that some business users may not be motivated to create their own insights from scratch. Or sometimes some of these business users may have questions that are too complicated, and so they may struggle to create their own inside from scratch. Now what happens usually in these circumstances is that these users will open a ticket, which would go to the analyst team. The analyst team is usually overrun with these tickets and have trouble prioritizing them. And so we started thinking, How can we make that entire feedback loop really efficient so that analysts can have a massive impact with as little work as possible? Let me show you what we came up with. Search answers comes with this system generated dashboard that analysts can see to see analytics on the queries that business users are asking in search answers so it contains high level K P. I is like, You know how many searches there are and how many users there are. It also contains one of the most popular queries that users are asking. But most importantly, it contains information about what are popular queries where users are failing. So the number on the top right tells you that about 10% off queries in this case ended with no results. So the user clearly failed because there were no results on the table. Right below it shows you here are the top search queries for original results exist. So, for example, the highlighted row there says jean sales with the number three, which tells the analysts that last week there were three searches for the query jean sales and the resulted in no results on search answers. Now, when an analyst sees a report like this, they can use it to prioritize what kind of content they could be creating or optimizing. Now, in addition to giving them inside into queries which led to no results or zero results. This dashboard also contains reports on creatives that lead to poor results because the user did get some results but didn't click on anything, meaning that they didn't get the answer that they were looking for. Taking all these insights, analysts can better prioritize and either create or optimize their content to have maximum impact for their business users with the least amount of for. So that was the demo. As you can see with search answers, we've created a very consumer search interface that any business user can use to get the answers to their questions by leveraging data or answers that have already been created in the system by other users in their organization. In addition, we're creating tools that allow analysts toe create or optimized content that can have the highest impact for these business users. All right, so that was the demo or thoughts about one and hope you guys liked it. We're really excited about it. Now Let me just spend a minute talking about what's coming next. As I've mentioned before, we want to connect every business user with the insights that are most relevant for them, and for that we will continue to invest in Advanced AI and personalization, and some of the ways you will see it is improved relevance in ranking in recommendations in how we understand your questions across the product within search within the home page everywhere. The second team that will continue to invest in is powerful analyst tools. We talked about tools and, I assure you, tools that make the analysts more self service. We are committed to improving the analyst experience so that they can make the most off their time. An example of a tool that we're really excited about is one that allows them to bridge the vocabulary difference that this even business user asks questions. A user asked a question like revenue, but the column name for the metric in the data set its sales. Now analysts can get insights into what are the words that users air using in their questions that aren't matching anything in the data set and easily create synonyms so that that vocabulary difference gets breached. But that's just one example of how we're thinking about empowering the analysts so that with minimal work, they can amplify their impact and help their business users succeed. So there's a lot coming, and we're really excited about how we're planning to evolve thoughts about one. With all that said, Um, there's just, well, one more thing that my friend Bob wants to talk to you guys about. So back to you, Bob. >>Thanks, Michelle. It's such a great demo and so fun to see all the new work that's going on with thought. Spot one. All the happenings for the new features coming out that will be under the hood. But of course, on the design side, we're going to continue to evolve the front end as well, and this is what we're hoping to move towards. So here you'll see a new log in screen and then the new homepage. So compared to the material that you saw just a few minutes ago, you'll notice this look is much lighter. A little bit nicer use of color up in the top bar with search the features over here to allow you to switch between searching against answers at versus creating new answers, the settings and user profile controls down here and then on the search results page itself also lighter look and feel again. Mork color up in the search bar up the top. A little bit nicer treatments here. We'll continue to evolve the look and feel the product in coming months and quarters and look forward to continue to constantly improving thoughts about one Hannah back to you. >>Thanks, Bob, and thank you both for showing us the next generation of thought spot. I'd love to go a bit deeper on some of the points you touched on there. I've got a couple of questions here. Bob, how do you think about designing for consumer experience versus designing for enterprise solutions? >>Yes, I mentioned Hannah. We don't >>really try to distinguish so much between enterprise users and consumer users. It's really kind of two different context of use. But we still always think that users want some product and feature and experience that's easy to use and makes sense to them. So instead of trying to think about those is two completely different design processes I think about it may be the way Frank Lloyd Wright would approached architecture. >>Er I >>mean, in his career, he fluidly moved between residential architecture like falling water and the Robie House. But he also designed marquis buildings like the Johnson wax building. In each case, he simply looked at the requirements, thought about what was necessary for those users and designed accordingly. And that's really what we do. A thought spot. We spend time talking to customers. We spend time talking to users, and we spent a lot of time thinking through the problem and trying to solve it holistically. And it's simply a possible >>thanks, Bob. That's a beautiful analogy on one last question for you. Bischel. How frequently will you be adding features to this new experience, >>But I'm glad you asked that, Hannah, because this is something that we are really really excited about with thoughts about one being in the cloud. We want to go really, really fast. So we expect to eventually get to releasing new innovations every day. We expect that in the near future, we'll get to, you know, every month and every week, and we hope to get to everyday eventually fingers crossed on housing. That can happen. Great. Thanks, >>Michelle. And thank you, Bob. I'm so glad you could all join us this morning to hear more about thoughts about one. Stay close and get ready for the next session. which will be beginning in a few minutes. In it will be introduced to thoughts for >>everywhere are >>embedded analytics product on. We'll be hearing directly from our customers at Hayes about how they're using embedded analytics to help healthcare providers across billing compliance on revenue integrity functions. To make more informed decisions on make effective actions to avoid risk and maximize revenue. See you there.
SUMMARY :
I'm delighted to have you here today. It's great to be here with everybody today and really excited to be able to present to you thought spot one. And she can see that Midwest is still the region with the highest sales for jeans, So compared to the material that you saw just a few minutes ago, you'll notice this look is much lighter. I'd love to go a bit deeper on some of the points you touched on there. We don't that's easy to use and makes sense to them. In each case, he simply looked at the requirements, thought about what was necessary for those users and designed How frequently will you be adding features to this new experience, We expect that in the near future, and get ready for the next session. actions to avoid risk and maximize revenue.
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Breaking Analysis: Spending Shifts in Cyber Security Predicted to be Permanent
>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE at ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante >> As we've reported extensively, the pandemic has affected cybersecurity markets perhaps more than any other. Remote work has caused CISOs, chief information security officers to shift spending priorities toward identity access management endpoint and cloud security. COVID has been a benefactor for next gen security companies that participate in these sectors. Notably, we believe tactical responses to the coronavirus have resulted in productivity improvements that will create permanent change in the way organizations defend themselves against cyber threats. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we'll provide you with our quarterly update of the cybersecurity space and share fresh ETR data on the market. We also have some results from Eric Bradley's most recent Venn round table conducted with three senior chief information security officers. Let's start by looking at this notion of a single pane of glass. Now, despite the aspiration, there is no silver bullet to protect organizations from cyber attacks. The complexities of security, they're enormous and they require a layered defense approach. They range from securing internal networks to end points, to DMZ subnets, external traffic security, data in motion, data at rest, protecting from ransomware, dealing with web traffic, emails, phishing, not to mention threats from internal employees and contractors. As we mentioned at the open, there are three areas in particular that have seen significantly elevated spending momentum that is translated into the valuation increases for several companies, including CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler and several others. Zero trust security has gone from buzzword to reality. And spending shifts to these technologies have siphoned off demand from traditional hardware based firewalls. Although CISOs seem to be hedging their bets, at some point, they realized that people are actually going to come back to the office, so they have to remain agile. Lack of talent. Well, that remains one of the CISOs biggest challenges to securing applications and data. And automation while sometimes viewed as risky, is becoming increasingly important. Several companies have hit our radar this quarter and were highlighted in the CISO Panel, including Elastic which has seen momentum as an open source alternative to Splunk and notably multiple CIOs in the panel, they cited concerns related to Splunk's pricing and their sales tactics. They actually compared those of Splunk to those of EMC in the past, if anybody remembers how aggressive EMC salespeople could be. CloudFlare also broke into the top 10 in the ETR survey based on net score which is a measure of spending momentum. And that was for those companies with more than 50 mentions in the survey. CloudFlare is a CDN and provides security for websites. Also Netskope, a cloud security specialist cracked the top 10 in terms of net score and received high marks from the CISO panel, particularly with respect to it's vision and roadmap. Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, Okta, CrowdStrike Cisco, CyberArk, SailPoint, Zscaler and Proofpoint remain focus vendors for us in the ETR survey as measured by spending momentum and their presence in the data set, what we call market share. And we'll talk more about those companies in a moment. Now finally, even CISOs that were skeptical about the permanence of the effects of COVID, they're seeing business benefits that suggest many of these shifts are circular, and not cyclical. Indeed, prior to the pandemic, ETR survey data showed that about 16% of organizations workers were primarily remote. CIOs expect that number to more than double post pandemic to 34%. Let's say you look at some of the cybersecurity vendors. We'll plot some, we don't have enough room to plot all of them, there are so many. But this chart shows one of our favorite XY views. On the Y axis, we measure net score. And that measures against spending velocity by looking at the net percentage of customers that are spending more versus those that are spending less within the ETR survey. The X axis measures market share or pervasiveness in the survey. Now we've included a select list of companies for this view and only include those with more than 50 responses, or 50 Ns, shared Ns, if you will, in the data set. In the upper right, you can see a table that shows the data sorted by both net score and shared Ns for each vendor. Now, as we indicated, Elastic has taken the top spot, just barely edging out Okta who took over from CrowdStrike in the last survey. And you can see the significant market presence of Palo Alto and Splunk and the most pervasive vendor here is Cisco. Note that Cisco also owns Umbrella and Duo which both have meaningful Ns in the survey. Now, if we were to combine these into one view, a single view of Cisco, all three of those, it would pull the company even further up into the right. Security is one of the bright spots in Cisco's portfolio and shows consistent year-on-year growth each quarter. Now having said that, some CISOs complained that Cisco's propensity to rely on acquisitions to fill gaps has caused them integration challenges in the past. Let's go back to Palo Alto for a moment. We'll make some comments later regarding their position relative to Fortinet, but we wanted to call them out here. Look, CISOs, they really liked Palo Alto. They trust the Palo Alto Networks. They consider Palo Alto as a trusted leader with a very strong portfolio and vision. Now let's turn our attention to the pack here, as we mentioned, Okta's momentum is notably elevated and it's meaningfully higher than the others. Its presence continues to increase up to the right, as does CrowdStrike's, or to the right, not necessarily up to the right, but to the right. But CrowdStrike has come off its net score high, so it's coming down actually in the vertical axis. And we're not super concerned about that because they're dramatically increasing their presence on the X axis each survey. But so is Okta, so that's something to watch. In other words, CrowdStrike's coming down in net score while it's increasing its presence, Okta is holding its net score while at the same time increasing its presence, which is really a strong sign. Now that they compete, they don't compete against each other directly, but it's they're still in the same sector. We've also included Carbon Black here because because of their VMware acquisition and VMware CEO, Pat Gelsinger, he's on a mission to fix security and the company has made a number of moves in cyber. VMware has a really good track record could of execution and while fixing Curity is highly aspirational. With its install base and history of success, we wanted to include them here because they're getting more attention of the CISOs in the ETR panel. So we're keeping an eye on VMware and Carbon Black. It's going to take some time, but we'll keep watching them. Now let's take a look at how the players have moved this year over the quarters. We're going to show you four tables here and we're going to compare the net scores and market share of the cyber companies for January, April, July, and October surveys. So pre-COVID and throughout the year. So let's look first at the pre-COVID positions. The left most chart is sorted by net score or spending momentum and the right most chart is the shared Ns, which is the number of mentions in the survey, which is what drives the horizontal axis that I showed you earlier. Now, when you go back to the January survey, you see CrowdStrike was already doing very well with an elevated net score of 68.3% and 123 mentions. By the way, please ignore those companies with less than 50 Ns, I didn't filter the data back then. I was kind of still learning how to use the ETR software platform. Okta was also elevated and you can see the others there as well. Now, last year, we came up with a method to assign stars to those companies that had both top net scores and large shared Ns in the survey. So spending momentum and strong market share. And you can see Microsoft, Splunk, Palo Alto Networks, Proofpoint, CrowdStrike, Zscaler and CyberArk made the cut and all received four stars. And we gave two stars to Cisco and Fortinet because they had strong net scores and very high presence in the survey. Now let's go forward and look at April when the lockdown was in full swing. Okay, so we tightened things up in April and on the presentation of the survey did and only included those companies with more than 50N. And we cut the top 10, that's the red line and we put in their Dell EMC which is RSA and IBM for context. And you can see CrowdStrike, they shot to the top with a 68% net score and increased it's shared N, and you can see the stars right. Now, let's just jump ahead to the July survey. So now we're well into the pandemic. Maybe things are calming down a little bit in the summer. People feeling a little bit more freedom, maybe not as concerned about the work-from-home peace, that's sort of settling in, and CISOs, they had a little time to respond here and that's kind of the picture in the summer. Okta jumped way up on the left, you see in spending momentum and CrowdStrike, they moderated a bit, although they remained elevated. And again, they're not direct competitors, but it's instructive to compare these two firms, 'cause they're both hot and growing. And you see the green lines, they show the direction of the momentum of the net score. CrowdStrike was a bit of a concern because its net score dropped and its presence in the dataset kind of moderated. But the company continued to report strong revenue during its earnings calls and the stock remain a darling. So some mixed signals in the data, one quarter doesn't necessarily make a trend. But Okta, Microsoft, Cisco, Palo Alto, Splunk and several others, they remained very, very strong. Now let's go into the most recent October survey. So again, we continue to fine tune our presentation analysis here. And you can see there are two red lines. The top one is the top 10 cutoff. And the second line is the top 20. As we said, Elastic hit the radar for net score but still not pervasive enough in the dataset on the right to earn some stars with the shared Ns. So Okta in our view continues to hold that top spot for momentum and made the top 10 cut for shared N, two very positive signs. It's shared N, for example, jumped from 139 to 185. So more and more mentions, people are increasingly relying on Okta for identity access management. Now for the green arrows here, the momentum lines, we've tried to take into consideration the shared N. So even though, for example CrowdStrike's net score dropped from 50 down to 43%, it's shared N, or again, the number of mentions, it jumped from 119 to 162. So that's a 36% increase and you might be thinking, well, why is that significant? Well, CIOs and IT buyers in the ETR survey, they're asked to choose the areas with which they are most familiar and then they answer questions on which vendors they use. So the fact that companies like Okta and Palo Alto and CrowdStrike and several others that we've highlighted are increasing their presence in the data set and still maintaining a very strong net score is a really good signal in our view. That's why, for example, take Zscaler, we still give them two stars, even though on a relative basis, it didn't make the top 10 cut. It's net score held relatively firm and it's shared N jumped by 39%. So we continue to like names like Zscaler, Okta, CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Proofpoint Fortinet and of course Microsoft, which consistently shines brightly. Let's look at a comment that underscores the CISOs sentiment and I think the market overall. Here's a comment from a CISO of a global travel and hospitality company. It's a name you would recognize and obviously this individual's business was hit hard by the pandemic. So there's an inherent bias toward hope anyway, toward a return to the normal. But look at the comment, I'll read it. "I was a skeptic on the permanence of the changes due to COVID, but I've seen firsthand, there are legitimate structural changes that are taking place, and that's going to fundamentally shift where companies are investing in cyber. Building leases are expiring, people, they're productive working from home. Products that enable work from home and that are cloud first, that trend will continue and be permanent." And you know what? We agree. Okay, here's a chart that we've been updating since right before the pandemic and it compares the performance of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq with specific security companies that are public. And we've been tracking the revenue multiples on a trailing 12 month revenue basis over time to get a sense of how these companies compare. And we prefer to use forward looking revenue, but find TTM to be more consistent and frankly easier to access quickly. So that's what we're using. Now note that Splunk, Octa, CrowdStrike and Zscaler, those are the guys I've highlighted in red, they have yet to report as of this publication. A couple of points here are worth noting. First, we've been talking a lot about the divergence in valuation between Palo Alto and Fortinet and we'll show some more data on that in a moment but we want to share some CISO comments about Fortinet. People sometimes refer to Fortinet as Forti knife, as in Swiss army knife. They're a Swiss army knife of cyber, Forti everything is what one CISO called it. Fortinet is more price attractive, especially for mid-sized companies who don't have the resources of larger firms that might gravitate toward Palo Alto Networks. And the companies around for awhile and has earned the trust of CISOs because of their portfolio and their track record. Now, the other notable item in this data is the rise in value for Okta, CrowdStrike and Zscaler which have seen values increase 78%, 128%, 124% respectively in the time period we show here. You can see the very highly elevated revenue multiples compared to some of the more mature companies. Splunk, they're a bit of an outlier here 'cause we're showing negative growth in that right-hand column. And that's because of its transition toward a subscription model. That really messes up the income statement. And we just wanted to cite that. Splunk's been doing a good job communicating to the street. There are some concerns in the ETR dataset, which we've talked about. They've sort of moderated lately. There's also concerns about pricing that CISOs have mentioned, but generally there's a real bifurcation in the market in terms of valuations. And we think that while there's a lot of discussion about the so-called stay-at-home stocks and a shift back away from those when the pandemic subsides, we believe that the productivity benefits of remote work are becoming more clear and these next gen security companies are going to continue to thrive. Now let's take a moment to look at the relative performance of Palo Alto and Fortinet. Back in February of this year, we noted that there was a valuation divergence occurring between these two companies. And we cited three factors at the time for this gap. First, we said the Palo Alto was trying to cloud proof its business, and as such, it was in transition. And second, it had some challenges with regard to the pace of that transition, including sales incentives, actually that's part of the first point. That was kind of one A. Secondly, we said that the shift away from appliance-based firewalls was accelerating and that was pressuring Palo Alto's valuation. They were kind of underperforming in that segment. And finally we said the Palo Alto was facing some very tough compares in 2019 relative to 2018. And that was causing investors to pause as Palo Alto began shifting to an annual recurring revenue model. Now we said at the time that CISOs really, they really liked Palo Alto and we felt it would... the company would deal with these issues in 2020. And this chart really shows that and they've begun to reverse this trend. The yellow line is Fortinet. The blue line is Palo Alto and it's showing this sort of relative performance here. And you can see that gap coming into 2020 which extended into the meat of 2020. But now it's starting to compress, thanks to a nice earnings report that beat EPS on revenue this month, as we're talking about Palo Alto. So we continue to believe that Fortinet has done a good job and a better job of moving to the cloud model. And Palo Alto has largely relied on acquisitions to accelerate this trend. And we'll see if they can continue to thrive during this transition to cloud. But there's little doubt that CISOs want to work with Palo Alto networks and they remain committed to having a strategic relationship with the company. Alright, let's wrap. The shift to the subscription model is well underway in the cybersecurity space and it's buoyed by cloud and next generation SAS-based security players. Splunk is in transition. Cisco and Palo Alto emphasize the importance of this trend and virtually all historically on-prem players are being forced to respond. Survey data and anecdotal information from theCUBE community supports what the ETR Venn CISOs are saying, that the internet is becoming the new private network and these trends toward cloud-based and remote worker support are delivering benefits that CEOs and CFOs are going to continue to push to operationalize. CISOs, they got to continue to take a multi-layered approach to defending their data, their applications and their users. And it's such a fragmented market with specialists is going to continue for quite some time. Now, despite these clear trends, CISOs face a real challenge, the timing of the return to semi normal, it's really uncertain. And we still don't have a clear picture of what that future will look like. As such incumbent firms with hardened networks, they're going to have to remain in a hybrid holding pattern to accommodate whatever happens. Why is that important? Well, this means that budgets are going to be stretched. Look, while security remains a top priority, you can't expect an open checkbook going to SecOps team. Throwing money at the problem wouldn't really solve it anyway. Rather CISOs have to take a balanced portfolio of investments, continuing with automation and data analytics and of course, good security practice practices. That's going to be the pattern. Alright, well, thanks everyone for watching this episode of theCUBE insights powered by ETR. There are many ways to get in touch. @dvellante on Twitter, david.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can comment on my LinkedIn posts. I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and always appreciate the feedback from our community. These episodes, by the way, are all available as podcasts. So you can listen while you multitask and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action. This is Dave Vellante. Have a great Thanksgiving, be smart, stay safe and we'll see you next time. (light melodic music)
SUMMARY :
in Palo Alto in Boston, of the changes due to COVID,
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Breaking Analysis: Cloud Revenue Accelerates in the COVID Era
from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante as we watch an historic election unfold before our eyes we look back at the early days of the millennium with the memorable presidential race of 2000 that decade of course was defined by 911 which permanently reshaped our thinking and we exited that decade at the tail end of a massive financial crisis only to enter the 2010s with the hope and the momentum of fiscal stimulus a flat globe job growth and very importantly the ascendancy of the cloud cloud computing unquestionably powered the innovation engine over the last 10 years and the pandemic marks a new era where adoption of cloud data and ai have been accelerated by at least two to three years and that's what's going to shape the future of the technology industry and frankly all businesses and organizations hello everyone and welcome to this week's episode of thecube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we're going to update you on our latest cloud market share and dig in to some fresh october survey data from our partners over at etr let me start just with a brief summary of the latest action that's going on in cloud now quite interestingly each of the big three cloud players they showed nearly identical year-on-year growth rates in q3 as they did in q2 now we're going to dig into that in a moment but our data suggests that these three companies combined will account for more than 75 billion dollars in infrastructure as a service and platform as a service revenue in 2020 and they're potentially on track to hit 100 billion in 2021. customer survey data indicates that cio's top two infrastructure priorities remain security and cloud migration now that said as we previously reported the cloud it's not immune to the pandemic the remote worker pivot well it's a positive for cloud hasn't completely eradicated certain headwinds now what i mean here is that because the cloud vendors are now so large they're somewhat exposed to the softness in the overall i.t spending climate and also industries that have been hit hardest by the pandemic now would the cloud growth have been better if the pandemic didn't hit we'll never know for sure but our data suggests no covet has definitely been a benefactor to cloud in our view cloud will remain at the center of technological innovation for the foreseeable future the economics of cloud are becoming so compelling that we think the power of the big cloud companies will only increase this decade now importantly we're talking about the costs of running hyper-distributed systems we're not commenting here on what they charge customers that's a different story we believe the cost structure for the hyperscalers is superior to alternative approaches and we believe this advantage will only accelerate over the next several years we also believe that competition is going to continue to drive competitive pricing and innovation all right let's look at our latest market share numbers for the big three this chart shows our estimates of aws azure and the google cloud platform now viewers of this program know that these are is and pass figures and you also know that aws is the only company that provides clean numbers on that sector whereas azure and gcp are estimates that we make based on tidbits of guidance that the companies give us and survey data that we capture and other modeling that we do now as we've said we'll end this year it's about 75 billion in revenue or maybe even a little bit more note that for these three note that we've we've slightly restated some of our earlier estimates for azure to reconcile some differences that we had between constant currency and actual growth we try to keep things in constant currency where possible sorry for that but sometimes that happens azure according to our estimates as we reported last week is now 18 of microsoft's overall revenue number we had it at 19 that last week but when i dug in we made some adjustments so we toned it down a bit aws represents a much smaller percentage of course of amazon's revenues at about 12 percent but it represents 56 percent of amazon's profits gcp on the other hand accounts for less than five percent of google's overall revenue which as we've stated a few weeks ago needs more attention from google but look at the growth rates for these three platforms and the respective size of their is and pass businesses hear all this talk about repatriation i.e that what i mean by that is people go to the cloud but they're unhappy or the bill is too high it's too expensive so then they come back on prem well you just don't see that in the numbers so you gotta be careful when vendor a vendor tries to sell you on that trend i don't buy it except for selective situations now let's bring in some of the etr data and compare the spending momentum for each of the big three you've seen these wheel graphs before they show the breakdown of net score for aws microsoft and google now one note these figures represent these three companies overall within the etr technology taxonomy so for example they don't include amazon's retail business of course but they do include for example microsoft's entire tech portfolio not just the cloud the green portion of the wheel represents increases in spending via new adoptions and increased spending whereas the red sections show decreases via lower spending and defections net score which i've highlighted in the orange is calculated by subtracting the two reds from the two true greens in other words adoptions and increase minus decrease and replacements the takeaway here is these are all pretty strong with aws leading the pack microsoft is exceptionally strong as we pointed out last last week because they're so huge and they still have net scores comparable to aws which is a pure play gcp is a laggard and is showing softness in the data despite a sanguine outlook that we had back in 2019 based on survey data i don't know perhaps google's smaller presence muted their customers ability to take advantage of the platform the thinking there is the customers maybe needed to pivot to the cloud so quickly and aws and azure were the incumbents and that was maybe the most expedient path hence the higher increases in the spend more category but you do see gcp um they had 13 new adoptions which is pretty good so we'll keep looking at that regardless again these are not pure play cloud comparisons but they give a good indication of spending momentum i'd also note that all three show very low defections well each is showing solid increases in new adoptions especially google as i mentioned so that's kind of interesting to see but again google much much smaller you would expect that now i want to turn our attention to one of the hottest areas in cloud which is serverless and this is a pure play comparison so serverless let me start there it's a strange term because it's not really accurate but it's stuck serverless computing is a model where the cloud platform dynamically delivers services as the application requires so so you don't have to configure the compute and the containers for example rather when an application needs resources it goes and gets them and you only pay for when the services are actually invoked and in use so it's really good for workloads that spin up and spin down very frequently it kind of reminds me in concept anyway of the component tree that we saw in the days of soa if you remember that services oriented architecture but now this is cloud it's cloud native it's a whole new world and it's increasingly a popular model and as we'll show in a moment there's a lot of spending momentum in this area but before we do that i want to share some comments made by andy jassy a while back about serverless take a listen it's a good question and you know i really the comment i made was really about um directionally what amazon would do you know in this in the very earliest days of aws jeff used to say a lot if i were starting amazon today i'd have built it on top of aws we didn't have all the capability and all the functionality at that very moment but he knew what was coming and he saw what people were still able to accomplish even with where the services were at that point i think the same thing is true here with lambda which is i think if amazon were starting today it's a given they would build it on the cloud and i think with a lot of the applications that comprise amazon's consumer business we would build those on on our serverless capabilities now now lambda of course jesse referring to lambda that's amazon's serverless offering and if you think about amazon's retail business and take for example the frequent spin up and spin down of resources for something like black monday serverless would be a much more cost effective approach same for a managed data warehouse service for example where you know you don't want to pay for the compute if it's idle the app just calls for the compute when it's needed so it's a very popular model and it's got increased momentum today and you see that in this slide it shows the net score breakdown for serverless for azure aws is lambda which is again is their serverless offering and google cloud functions again you're shipping functions to the application that's why it's called functions look at the net scores azure functions nearly 70 aws at 65 google again lagging and that's a bit of a concern because this is a really really hot space all right let's move on and look at the competitive landscape as we like to do often and update you on that this xy graph is one of our favorites and it shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal market share is a measure of pervasiveness in the data set in the upper right you also see a table that ranks each vendor my net score and it includes the shared n in other words the number of mentions in this sector for each vendor now you can you can see up top in the middle i've selected on the cloud computing category so this represents only the cloud businesses for each of these players there's a little bit of nuance here and that we've selected on microsoft azure there's a category in the etr taxonomy for that and we're comparing that with aws overall so there's there are things in the aws overall number that fit into the other parts of the taxonomy like maybe ai collaboration etc whereas azures and gcp are just the cloud segments so i i know it's a bit strange because aws is all cloud but don't get caught up in the taxonomical nuance the point is it's good to be azure in aws it's shown there when you look at the upper right of the chart here they stand out and they stand alone in cloud leadership google cloud is they have nice elevated levels but they're much much smaller they don't have the presence in the market now look at that hybrid cloud zone emerging we've talked about this sometimes in the past and and i want to call it vmware cloud on aws red hat open shift and vmware cloud itself like vmware cloud foundation and their other cloud services all of these appear to be gaining traction and you can see in the number of occurrences in the upper right that shared end that i talked about we're starting to see real numbers that are meaningful in this space vmware cloud on aws for example has a net score of 53 percent with 116 accounts within that total respondent sample that you see there in the middle left of 1438 that's how many cios and technology buyers responded to the etr survey in october you look at open shift at 45 net score and that's with 82 accounts now openshift is in beta with what looked to be some really strong offerings on aws and you can see for context i've added dell emc's cloud offerings hpe's cloud offerings and the oracle cloud and ibm cloud and also rackspace dell actually pretty strong with a net score of 20 and 185 shared accounts much much higher than dell overall which is kind of in the red zone oracle ibm you see those rackspace you know organizing not killing it rackspace is kind of in the big negative so that's a concern but anyway we'd like for these guys we'd like to see the data match the marketing rhetoric for the the guys that are in the red and look alibaba is starting to to show up in the server there's only 26 shared ends but we thought we'd we'd put it in there those three key points again aws and microsoft keep on trucking google needs to do better hybrid is becoming real and that bodes well for multi-cloud and the legacy on-prem guys they got a lot of work to do they're under a lot of pressure the pivot to cloud has not been easy for them uh and it's still a case where they're i've talked about this a lot they're they're declines in their on-premises offerings they're not being offset by the new stuff the cloud momentum all right i want to close out by sharing some of the conversations and thoughts that we've had in the community around sas and its impact on cloud we really have been focusing on ias and pass of the sas layer obviously up the stack so let me first share that there's a lot of talk around and has been for years about aws they're slowing growth rates and whether or not they'll have to enter the sas market to expand their total available market and i've said consistently while i never say never about aws i don't think so at least not yet this chart plots the big three cloud players note aws is a bigger piece of this pie now that i've turned off the cloud computing filter and i know more nuances but the data wonks will will find you know see this and they'll ask me about it this is all of aws portfolio and again it's only the microsoft azure portfolio so you see it aws now overtakes azure on the x-axis i.e market share now we've plotted some of the major sas vendors and you can see servicenow and salesforce both very large and they have really strong spending momentum and servicenow's you know pushing 100 billion dollars in market value they've surpassed workday quite some time ago workday's got less presence but they've got really really solid net score and i got to say i'm impressed with sap despite some of the earnings challenges that they've been having they're right up there with splunk and tableau splunk has softened in recent surveys and i've i've also plotted in there netsuite and oracle fusion which are just okay and that is i think for now anyway aws is going to position as the best place and the most friendly and highest quality cloud in which to run your sas for example workday runs on aws aws is salesforce's preferred infrastructure platform so my premise here is just like retail companies might want not want to run on aws a number of sas companies that compete with microsoft they might think twice about running on azure so aws would be better off for now trying to attract those sas players and drive their services and sticking to infrastructure and the pass layer snowflake is actually kind of interesting and i've added them for context because their netscore is always kind of a bellwether it's really off the charts and they're an isv running on the cloud they're different from some of the other sas players and the snowflake is a database okay and most of snowflake's business runs on aws and aws competes with snowflake with redshift but aws has the best cloud and drives a lot of business for snowflake and vice versa so it's kind of interesting snow snowflake to redshift and a much smaller example is kind of like netflix to amazon prime video to compete they both thrive so i think aws is going to continue to grow by attracting sas players as the preferred platform and they'll also attract developers and try to disrupt sas players like servicenow which runs on its own cloud i remember years ago david floyer and i said that servicenow was it was awesome but at some point its infrastructure cost structure its infrastructure cost structure is going to be less competitive than those companies that are running on hyperscale clouds certainly the hyperscale clouds themselves and servicenow they have this multi-instance architecture which just can't easily port over to the cloud but it can charge a lot which it does now at some point some sharp developers are going to look at all this and say whoa see that service now i can build this for less and they'll attack servicenow and their seat base license model maybe with the consumption pricing model and a platform that's perhaps or a set of services that are perhaps less expensive you're seeing this to a you know a certain degree with like elastic inside the application performance management space so there's some some things to watch there but there are those who firmly believe that aws will and must enter the sas space directly we talked last week about how beneficial microsoft's application business is for azure and what a flywheel that is but for me i think we're not there yet let's give it some time i think maybe four to five years before aws may even start to think about filling some of the space up the stack now maybe they'll find some unique opportunities to do that for instance at the edge but i think that's way off okay so bottom line it's good to be in tech these days it's even better to be in the cloud and it's best if you're aws and microsoft and i don't see that changing for a while now remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can get in touch with me through email it's david at siliconangle.com feel free to dm me on twitter at d vallante i post on linkedin love your comments there thank you and don't forget to check out etr plus for all the survey action thanks for watching this episode of thecube insights powered by etr this is dave vellante stay safe stay sane and we'll see you next time you
SUMMARY :
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Breaking Analysis: Cloud Remains Strong but not Immune to COVID
from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante while cloud computing is generally seen as a bright spot in tech spending the sector is not immune from the effects of covid19 look it's better to be cloud than not cloud no question but recent survey data shows that the v-shaped recovery in the stock market looks much more like a square root sign for it spending in 2020 and even the cloud is going to be negatively impacted albeit much less so than many other sectors hello everyone and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr i'm dave vellante and in this breaking analysis we want to update you on our latest data and thinking around the cloud computing market with an emphasis on infrastructure as a service we'll also update our latest quarterly estimates of the big three show you our typical trailing 12-month view of revenue let's start with the macro picture the reality is that the latest etr survey of nearly 1200 respondents shows that the vast majority of companies is the covet is hitting i.t budgets notably 59 of respondents have frozen hiring that's up from 26 in the last survey which was taken in march and april at the height of the u.s lockdown 24 percent have laid off employees that's up from four percent 41 percent froze new i.t deployments that's nearly double the percentage from the last survey now on the plus side there are some shops 23 percent that are accelerating i t deployments and that's up significantly from last quarter now as we've reported that's coming from the work from home and coveted tailwind segments and cloud computing is obviously one of those but these spending shifts are not enough to offset the overall outlook for 2020 and likely that's going to continue into 2021. because the big cloud players especially aws and azure are so large they're exposed to industries that have been hard hit by the pandemic as such we see pockets of spending deceleration even at these companies now the other piece of data that has our attention is the hybrid and multi-cloud market it's beginning to show some spending momentum this is particularly notable within vmware and red hat accounts and we've even seen a bit of momentum for oracle that we'll talk about in a moment now before we dig into the numbers let's hear the sentiment from some of the customers what we're showing here are some of the verbatim comments from etr customers one of the things i love about this survey is it includes quantitative and qualitative data that i can sort by industry so i've just pulled up a few examples that underscore some of the broad-based pain that companies are facing education minimum 15 cut across the organization engine energy and utilities we cut projects 10 15 across the board financials we've been asked to cut 20 out of our budget government hiring freeze larger constraints on spending health care and farmer much more scrutiny from upper management industrials materials and manufacturing slowing down is not all projects can be done remotely i.t telco head count and projects on hold and pushed into 2021 retail consumer budget cuts we lost three months of cash flow services and consulting all discretionary projects are frozen now these comments predominantly come from large companies that are big spenders now in fairness there are plenty of positives in the anecdotes but i have to say in squinting through the hundreds and hundreds of comments this pretty much sums up the sentiment now this is especially true in the all-important u.s market where we heard in cisco's earnings call this week the theme is uncertainty related to the pandemic and this is hitting i.t budgets now cloud spending remains at elevated levels but there's definitely pressure what we're showing here is the net score for the big three cloud players microsoft amazon and google in the three surveys of 2020 net scores etr's measure of spending momentum in each quarter etr asks buyers are you spending more or less on a particular platform and net score essentially subtracts the lesses from the mores it's a bit more complicated that but but that is really the essence and you can see the deceleration in all three big cloud platforms now it's important to point out that these are at elevated levels and they represent strength but there's clear pressure and headwinds on spending even in the cloud no sector is immune now there are pockets like video conferencing and security that are winning but even in these sectors it's bifurcated it's often a story of a firm that is well positioned to gain share like say a zoom or we've talked a lot about an octa or a crowdstrike or z scale or a sail point that we've highlighted in previous breaking analysis segments now this slide shows data from the etr survey the pies compare the spring survey to the summer asking buyers will covert impact your i.t budgets in 2020. in the latest covent survey 78 say yes now that's up from 63 percent see the bar chart below that answers your next obvious question which is how will your budget be impacted and can you see the distribution of the growth yes there it is you could see the decline 22 percent say no change but the red bars that decline are much bigger than the green bars and that's why we continue to forecast i.t spending declines of five to eight percent in 2020. we think this is even going to spill into the first half of 2020 who knows we'll see if it goes beyond now let's put the cloud in context despite my dire outlook we have to remember that it's all relative this chart shows you know one of our favorite views it plots net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis against the market share on the horizontal axis market share is a measure of pervasiveness in the survey and calculates the penetration of the sector as a percent of the overall survey so what this view tells us is the degree of spending momentum on the vertical axis cloud is elevated relative to other sectors that we're showing here and it shows the penetration of cloud in the data set on the horizontal axis so cloud shows spending momentum and high penetration relative to other priorities in i.t note there are dozens of other sectors but we've cherry picked a few here for context to wit other than containers ai and rpa cloud is outpacing all sectors shown for the net score and only analytics bi and big data is more pervasive so cloud very strong no doubt cloud is the place to be but the pandemic has created spending friction even in cloud and what we showed earlier the decline of the the net scores for the big three now again we're still holding here at elevated levels what this chart shows is the sectors of infrastructure as a service that show increasing next net scores relative to the last survey and you can see there are only five areas that show positive increase in net score this is out of dozens and dozens reading the bars left to right you see vmware cloud on aws with a very impressive net score of 66 percent that's up 700 basis points since the last survey next you see red hat open shift with a 44 net score that's up 600 basis points and then vmware cloud which comprises vmware cloud foundation and other hybrid and multi-cloud services from vmware it shows a net score of 42 which is up 400 basis points now after that is red hat openstack yes openstack with a 40 net score up 1200 basis points since the last survey red hat sells and supports its openstack distro now prior to the ibm acquisition red hat would frequently cite openstack as a growth business on its earnings calls and this data confirms that there's actually some momentum there as an example red hat is selling into the telco sector to service providers that want to stand up a private cloud why well the big cloud players may not have a local presence and there may be a data sovereignty requirement in that country you know that's just one example and then finally on the chart we have oracle now for sure there's some sas in there and you know oracle's net score is really not inspiring at 12 percent but it's up from the last survey so these are the only five areas showing net score expansion from the last survey we're talk which talks to the impacts of covid that we discussed earlier now let's take a look at a more granular set of data that cloud services and how they stack up what we show here are the top ten cloud services measured by net score or spending momentum this is for the july survey of respondents the first point is these are solid net scores so while i'm a bit of a davey downer today these are very strong relative to most other parts of the technology stack most companies would kill to have this type of momentum you see azure functions and azure platform they lead the pack but look at vmware cloud on aws we've seen this popping up showing strong in recent surveys and it's gaining presence and momentum in the data set then there's aws lambda you know functions or serverless this remains strong as you can see it does google functions and there's aws that's the aws overall and even though it's a bit off in net score terms from previous quarters as we'll talk about in a moment this is a 40 billion dollar business with net scores that remain elevated remember the net scores they can't grow to the moon they're going to fluctuate and the larger the base the harder it is to maintain high net score so this is very very impressive for aws google cloud platform is next and you know frankly i'd like to see stronger net scores from google gcp is around an eighth of the size of aws yet aws still maintains a notably higher net score in each survey google continues to struggle with selling into the enterprise now look at the last three in the chart you know cloud purists like aws might say that these hybrid or multi-cloud services aren't in a real cloud you know but to me this is a customer survey if the customer says their cloud i'm gonna go with that now forgetting about the semantics here the point is we've been talking about hybrid and multi-cloud for a while and we see vmware and red hat with openshift two companies that we've predicted are in a strong position to compete for hybrid and multi and they're showing up on customers spending radar i should also mention that microsoft is also a leader if not the leader in hybrid multi-cloud because it has a massive public cloud presence and numerous relevant services particularly in the hybrid space but they don't show up necessarily as discrete services in the etr taxonomy but they are in the numbers for sure probably just peanut butter spread over a number of categories now let's put this into context here's our old friend the xy graph it's one of our favorites this time we show specific named vendors in cloud on the x and the y axis axis is net score or spending velocity and the x axis is market share or pervasiveness so as usual we see aws and azure separating from the pac this is such a huge market it's really not a winner takes all space you know maybe not even a winner takes most and as you can see in the players that we've highlighted in the hybrid multi-zone you got you know google's kind of on that bubble but any player here with a net score above 40 percent in the green as you can see in the upper right hand corner is doing well red hat vmware cloud google and and look at vmware cloud on aws this service is getting a lot of traction and it better given the effort that both companies have put behind this aws has created a special bare metal instance to run this service on its cloud vmware talks about aws as its preferred partner this has been a winner for both companies aws gets access to a half a million vmware customers and vmware gets a really solid cloud play look where this goes in the future it's going to be interesting to watch when this service was announced several years ago it didn't take long for aws to also announce its vmware migration services but for now it's a win-win for the companies and a win for the customers now for context we've included both oracle and ibm cloud services and you can see where they stand relative to the rest they're not setting the world on fire but hey as i've said many times they at least are in the cloud game and importantly both companies are in a good position to migrate their customers mission critical workloads to their own respective clouds all right i want to wrap by looking at the big three performance this quarter as has been our custom we like to share our estimates of how the big three u.s cloud players stack up from a revenue standpoint this chart shows our is and pas revenue estimates for aws azure and google cloud platform the data shows 2018 19 2019 growth and the first two quarters of 2020 with a trailing 12-month view and here are the key points now as always remember aws reports clean numbers the others we have to squint through 10ks and 10qs and triangulate with survey data to come up with the reasonable apples to apple's estimate in comparison first point aws is now 40 billion wow combined the big three now account for nearly 70 billion dollars in is and pass revenue you know that's more than a sizable chunk of the data center business which is not all this hasn't been necessarily incremental growth to the it market there's been a share shift going on in other words that share shift is going from on-prem into the cloud now the third point is growth is strong but not surprisingly the bigger you get the slower the growth rate rate in 2018 aws revenue was 2.7 times greater than that of microsoft for the first time however aws revenue has dropped below 2x that of microsoft said another way microsoft's is revenue is now about 57 of aws's revenue google's growth rate at its size appears to be lagging where aws and azure's growth was at earlier points in their respective journeys for example when aws put up nearly 8 billion in 2015 in revenue it grew over 70 percent that year azure as you can see at 16 billion in 2019 grew at 65 percent now google grew 72 last quarter and 59 this quarter so you know it's no slouch but it's size with its but it's at its size with its resources we'd like to see google pick up the pace and you may have to wait until post covid but despite the coveted headwinds in the overall it market there's no question that this is a cloud world and we just happen to live in it [Music]
SUMMARY :
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59 | QUANTITY | 0.99+ |
42 | QUANTITY | 0.99+ |
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26 | QUANTITY | 0.98+ |
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