>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto, and Boston bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella sees a different future for cloud computing over the coming decade. And as Microsoft Ignite keynote, he laid out the five attributes that will define the cloud in the next 10 years. His vision is a cloud platform that is decentralized, ubiquitous, intelligent, sensing, and trusted. One that actually tickles the senses and levels the playing field between consumers and creators by placing tools in the hands of more people around the world. Welcome to this week's wiki buns cube insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis we'll review the highlights of Nadella's Ignite keynote share our thoughts on what it means for the future of cloud specifically, and the tech industry generally. We'll also give you a more tactical view of Microsoft and compare its performance within the ETR's dataset to its peers. Satya Nadella's forward-looking cloud attributes comprised five key vectors that he talked about. The first was ubiquitous and decentralized computing, Nadella made the statement that we've reached peak centralization today that we're witnessing radical changes in computing architecture from the materials used to semiconductors software, and that is going to serve a new frontier that's forming at the edge. Nadella envisions a world where there will be more sovereignty and decentralized control. We couldn't agree more. The cloud universe is expanding and the lines are blurring between what's being done on-prem, across public clouds and the cloud experience which is going to extend everywhere, including the edge. And of course, data is going to be flowing through this hyper decentralized system. Next was sovereign data and ambient intelligence. To us data sovereignty means that whatever the local laws are the system is going to have the intelligence to govern privacy, ensure data provenance, and adhere to corporate edicts. Ambient intelligence is a field of research that leverages pervasive sensor networks and AI to respond to and anticipate humans and machines. Nadella sees the future where a business logic will move from being code that is written to code that is actually learned from data, pretty interesting. He sees this autodidactic system if you will, as fundamental to tackling big problems like personalized medicine or even climate change. Third, he talked about empowered creators and communities everywhere. Nadella said, there'll be increasingly a balance between consumption and creation. His talking about an economic balance essentially he's predicting that creation will be democratized and his vision is to put tools in the hands of people to allow them to tip the scales toward knowledge workers, frontline employees, students, everyone, essentially creating content, applications, code, et cetera power to the people if you will. And underneath this vision is a new form of or emerging new forms of Silicon operating systems and entirely transformative digital experiences. Next was economic opportunity for the global workforce. So picking up on the accelerated themes of remote work that were catalyzed by COVID, Nadella emphasize that the future has to accommodate flexibility in how, when and where people work. He sees a new model of productivity emerging, not necessarily defined by corporate revenue per employee for example, but by the economic advantages that become accessible to everyone through better access to technology, collaboration tools, education, and healthy lifestyles, all enabled by this ubiquitous cloud. Finally, trust by design, Nadella said that ethical principles must govern the design, development and deployment of AI. The system he said must be secure by design with zero trust built in to protect business assets and personal privacy. So this was a big vision that Nadella put forth it, connects the dots between bits and atoms and sets up Microsoft to extend its reach well beyond office productivity tools and cloud infrastructure. He cited the Microsoft cloud as the underpinning of its future and specifically called out Teams, he mentioned 365, HoloLens 2 and the announcement of Microsoft Mesh, a new mixed reality platform. Nadella said Mesh will do for virtual reality what X-Box live did for gaming. Take the experience from single person to multi-person imagine holographic images with no screens, empowering advances in medicine, science, technology, and very importantly social interactions. Now, one of the things that we took away from his talk was this notion of Microsoft as a technology arm's dealer. No, we're not, Nadella avoided slamming the competition directly by name one statement that he made, stood out. He said, " No customer wants to be dependent on a provider that sells them technology on one end and competes with them on the other" And to us this was a direct shot at Amazon, Google and Apple. How so you ask? And what does it tell us? In his book "Seeing Digital" author David Moschella said, "that Silicon Valley broadly defined as a duel disruption agenda." What does that mean? Not only are large tech companies disrupting horizontal layers of the tech stack like compute, storage, networking, database, security, applications, and so forth. But they're also disrupting industries Amazon and media, grocery, logistics, for example. Google and Amazon on healthcare, Google and Apple on automobiles, all three in FinTech. And it's likely this is just the beginning but Nadella's posture suggests that Microsoft for now anyway, is content being mostly a horizontal technology provider, aka arms dealer. Now, there are some examples where you could argue that Microsoft sort of crosses the line maybe as a games developer or as a SAS competitor. Do you really want to, if you're a SAS player do you want to run your system on Azure and compete with Microsoft? Well, it depends if you're vertically oriented or maybe horizontal in their swim lanes, but anyway, these are more natural cohorts to technology than say for example, Amazon's retail business. So I thought that was something that was worth taking a look at. All right, let's take a quick look at how Microsoft compares to a couple of the great tech giants of the past several decades. Here's a financial snapshot of Microsoft compared to Oracle a highly profitable software company and IBM an industry legend. The first two things that jumped right out of Microsoft, size and it's growth rate. Microsoft is twice the revenue of IBM and nearly four extent of Oracle. And yet Microsoft is growing in the mid-teens compared to low single digits for Oracle and IBM continues to shrink so extensible you can grow. Microsoft's gross margin model has been pulled down by its hardware business but its operating margins are unbelievable. Meanwhile, the cash on its balance sheet is immense much larger than Oracles, which is very impressive. It's certainly dwarfs that of IBM, a company that had to take on a lot of debt to acquire Red Hat and has a balance sheet, that increasingly looks more like Dell's than it's historical self. And then on the last two rows Oracle and IBM, both owners of their own cloud have been lapped by Microsoft in terms of CapEx and research & development investment. Ironically, as we pointed out, IBM's R & D spend in 2007 the year after AWS launched the modern era of cloud was comparable to that of Microsoft. Let's now pivot it to some of the ETR survey data and see how Microsoft fares. We'll start by sharing a fundamental basis of the ETR methodology, that is the calculation of net score. Net score is a measure of spending momentum and here's how it's derived. This chart shows the components of Microsoft's net score. It comprises five parts and represents the percentage of customers within the ETR survey with specific spending profiles. The lime green is new adoptions, the forest green is increased spend of 6% or more for 2021 relative to 2020, the gray is flat spend, the pinkish slice is spend declining by more than 6% or 6% or more relative to last year and the bright red is replacing the platform. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get net score. As you can see, Microsoft's net score is 53% which is very high for $150 billion Company. Now let's put that in context and expand the scope here a little bit. This chart shows how Microsoft fares relative to its peers, the vertical axis shows net score against spending velocity and the horizontal axis shows market share. Market share measures pervasiveness in the survey. In the table insert, you can see the vendors they're sorted by net score and the shared end column is there as well, which represents the number of shared accounts in the dataset. On both accounts bigger is better. Now note the red dotted line, that's the 40% watermark which is my personal indicator of an elevated net score anything above that in our view is really solid. Microsoft is as usual off the charts strong well to the right with it's market presence and then an overall net score of 53% as we showed earlier. And then there's Azure, separate from Microsoft overall. We wanted to plot that specifically which of course it doesn't have the presence of Microsoft overall, no surprise, but it's still prominent on the x-axis and it has a net score approaching 70%, which is quite amazing. AWS not surprisingly is highly elevated with a presence that's even larger than Azure. And you can see Zoom, Salesforce and Google Cloud all above the 40% line. Google as we've reported is well off the pace in the horizontal axis and even though its net score is elevated, we would like to see it even higher, given its smaller size relative to AWS and Azure. You know, SAP always stands out because it's a large company and it's got a net score that's hovering just under 30%. It's not above that 40% line, but it's solid. And you can see IBM and Oracle now we're showing here IBM and Oracle overall so it's the whole kitchen sink comparable to Microsoft that turquoise dot, if you will. So you can see why those two are valued much lower Microsoft. The large base of its business that's declining is much, much larger than the pieces of their business that are growing. Now Oracle has some momentum, the Back Aaron's article on February 19th, which declared Oracle a cloud giant and it declared its stock a buy combined with some earnings upgrades including one today from Ramo Lyncho of Barclays has catapulted the stock to all time highs and a valuation over $200 billion. IBM is a different story as we've discussed frequently Arvind has a lot of work to do to get this national treasure back to what's prominent itself. Okay, let now unpack Microsoft's vast portfolio a bit and see where it's doing well and where it's making moves and maybe where it's struggling, some. This graphic shows Microsoft's net score across its entire product portfolio within the ETR taxonomy. And you can see it's pretty much killing it across the board. Microsoft plays in almost every sector in the ETR taxonomy and you can see the 40% red line and how many of its offerings are above that line. The yellow bar being the most recent survey and while there's quite a bit of gray, i.e. flat spend relative to 2020, we're talking about some very tough compares from last year. And yet there's still a huge chunk of the portfolio in the green meaning spending momentum is actually up from last year and some of Microsoft's most important sectors like Cloud and Teams and Analytics. Look only Skype and Microsoft Dynamics are lagging, so really nice story there in our view. Now let's come back and take a look at Microsoft's cloud business specifically as compared to its peers. So Satya basically said that Microsoft's future will build on top of its cloud and looking at this picture it's pretty encouraging for the company. This chart, again, shows net score or spending momentum inside specifically Fortune 500 customers and it's a key bellwether in the ETR dataset, and you can see Azure and Azure functions well above the 40% red line and extremely well positioned relative to AWS and GCP. Importantly, the yellow bar tells us that compared to previous surveys Microsoft's cloud business is actually gaining momentum in this very important sector. Now, other notable call-outs on this chart VMware Cloud, which, it's on-prem hybrid cloud and VMware Cloud on AWS, which is reportedly doing well but off from the momentum of its highs last spring. You can see Oracle jumped up indicating cloud momentum, but still well below the performance of the largest cloud players. The IBM Cloud appears to be a non-factor in the survey and as we previously stated, we'd like to see IBM recalibrate the financials for its cloud business and come up with a reporting framework that better represents the prevailing mental model of cloud computing. We think a cleaner number would allow IBM to build on the Red Hat momentum. I'm not sure what to make of the HPE boost, it looks significant, but in digging into the data it's only 17 data points, but look 17 within the Fortune 500 companies is not terrible. And HPE net score in that sector is more than double its overall cloud net score so that's positive we think. Okay, let's wrap by looking at how customers are thinking about multi-cloud adoption and really this data that we're about to show you simply asking customers about clouds they're using versus any type of long-term vision. So it's a good representation of what's happening today and what CIO is are thinking about in the near future particularly over the next 12 months. The survey asks customers to describe their cloud provider usage and strategy. You can see that only 14% of the survey respondents have exclusively a mono-cloud strategy, but now add in another 22% who were predominantly single cloud and you now have more than a third of the customer base gravitating toward mono-cloud. Another 14% say they're concentrating cloud providers more narrowly. Now on the flip side, you've got a big group, 29% that are moving toward multi-cloud and if you add in the additional 16% who say they are and will continue to be evenly spread, 45% of the survey is solidly headed in that direction so it's a mixed picture. What's the takeaway? Well, we think Andy Jassy is right when he says that while many customers use more than one cloud, they tend to have a primary provider and have something like a 70,30 or even 80,20 split between primary and secondary clouds. Now we think, however that this will change, but only to the extent that the vendor community is adding value on top of the existing hyperscale clouds. What we're saying and have been saying is that there is a real opportunity to create value on top of the cloud infrastructure that's being built out by AWS, Google and Microsoft. Instead of fearing cloud, the vendor community should be embracing it creating a layer on top, abstracting away the underlying complexities associated with cloud native, exploiting cloud native, and then building on top of that. Snowflake's data cloud vision is right on in my view, we can envision virtually every layer of the stack following suit. Even within database there are opportunities to identify more granular segments across clouds. For example, despite Snowflakes early multi-cloud lead you're seeing competitive firms like Teradata begin to architect a system across clouds that can query data warehouses from distributed locations, including on-prem as part of what they refer to as a data fabric, sounds kind of like Snowflakes global data mesh, or maybe better Zhamak Dehghani's data mesh. Yeah, sure but Teradata has capabilities that Snowflake doesn't for example, the ability to do complex joins and we can see plenty of market for both companies to differentiate. And why shouldn't similar vision extend from on-prem, across clouds to the edge for data protection, security, governance, hybrid compute ,analytics, federated applications, its a huge market that the hyperscale providers are likely too busy worrying about their own walled gardens to start building across on top of their competitors clouds. So Dell, HPE, VMware, Cisco, Palo Alto Fortunate, Zscaler or Cohesity, Veeam and hundreds of other tech companies, including by the way IBM and Oracle should be saying thank you to AWS, Google and Microsoft for spending all that money to build out great infrastructure on which they can build value, tap for future growth. And many of you will say, Hey, we're already doing this. Okay, I'll be watching to see the ratio of real versus slideware because generally today, in my opinion the denominator is much larger than the numerator. So when that ratio hits 1X we'll know it started to become real. Okay, that's it for today remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen so please subscribe. I publish weekly on wikibun.com and siliconangle.com. Please comment on my LinkedIn post or you can tweet me @DVellante or feel free to email me at David.Vellante@siliconangle.com. And don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey and data science action. This is Dave Vellante for the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Be well, thanks for watching and we'll see you next time. (relaxing music)

>>Live from Orlando, Florida It's the cue covering Microsoft Ignite Brought to you by Cohee City. >>Hello, everyone. And welcome to the Cubes live coverage of Microsoft Ignite. We're kicking off three days of live coverage here at the Orange County Civic Center Convention Center. Sorry, I'm your host. Rebecca Knight coasting along side of stew Minutemen. Do we have so much to cover? So many new products? So many new strategies. New Emphasis Head knew new buzzwords, tech intensity and democratization. Uh, you were here. You were in the hub. You heard Satya Nadella live on the main stage. I'd like to just get your initial impressions and initial thoughts of of his keynote, and we're gonna dig into all of >>them. Rebecca, it's great to be here second year doing it with you here. Your background, really on business. Productivity. Really enjoyed doing this one within you. Chew said Walter Wall. Three days of covered The place is just buzzing with activity. 26,000 in attendance for a show that's been called soft night for I think it's been about six years. It was tech head back in the day we talked about last year, you know, this was originally, you know, the windows and office. You know, administrators show and has really matured over time. Trust was a big topic of conversation. And you know what? With my general thing, they rearrange some of the logistics of it. I actually, you know, usually I'm sitting with the press and the analyst upfront. Actually, you know, when in the shoes of the attending here, which meant I stood in our for almost two hours waiting to be one of the 3000 out of 26,000 to go get a seat and communication was a little bit weird and we kind of move in. But I did get a nice seat. Such intel was up on front. I thought they covered a lot of ground and it ran well, logistically. For those of us that were watching from the main stage, I heard remotely, you know, as sometimes happens, you know, Internet or things that there could be some calendars. It is with all of these cloud shows that we go to you just get this barrage of so many different things, everything from you know, really interesting as your arc, which we're gonna spend a bunch of time talking about through all of the latest. Aye. Aye. And the power things that they're going on all the way down through dynamics and teams and devices and EJ and on DDE down to the browser and the search engine. So so many different things. You know, Microsoft, Of course. You know, one of the store words in technology, but clearly laying out Ah, lot of announcements, books worth of you work of all of the announcement that go out there. And you know, general, take that I get for most people is they definitely are impressed so far. And they're gonna spend all week digging in tow, learn more, >>So we're gonna We're gonna dig in right now. But But I also just want to say that setting the scene doll, this is October 25th. Microsoft was given the jet, announced it was announced it was given the jet I contract. This was a big surprise. And this is Microsoft, which is a distant number two to AWS. Did Sathya seem on a high from that still or what is your impression? >>Unless I missed it, I didn't catch anything about it. Absolutely. I've talked to some people around the show, Talk to somebody appears in the media and analyst community. That air talking about it absolutely was a big surprise. Anybody that's interested in this go check out John. For years written down on this, David Lantz has done a lot of analysis. We've been looking at this quite a bit. Amazon really had one this deal, and it went through courts and Oracle, you know, pushed against really hard to try to make for the Amazon, did it. General Mattis writes about it in his book that I think you came out recently, You know, from the president down to make sure that Amazon did not get this politics entry. The high level is it's $10 billion over 10 years, but when you look into it, number one is the minimum purchase. In the first years only like a 1,000,000. It's expected to be more like 202 150 million in the 1st 2 years, but it is a big deal. Microsoft really spent a lot of time the last couple of years going deeper into public sector, making sure they've got the governance and the compliance sergeant is Kino talked about the 54 azure regions and what they're doing. They're still work that Microsoft needs to do. They don't have the Level six security yet which Amazon does that They've been given less than a year to get that, to make sure that they can fulfill this. But a lot of pieces and there will be lots of other government contracts, but lots of intrigue there. I think it goes back to thing we mentioned trust. Can the government trust that Microsoft will allow them to do all they need to do? There's a lot of office 3 65 in the government. And, of course, Microsoft does. This other thing. There's a bunch of in the government is they use Oracle. We know that Oracle and Amazon are still butting heads. You don't expect to see Oracle on Amazon, you know, shaking hands on stage any time soon. At Oracle OpenWorld This year you saw Oracle allowing their solution to run on Azure in friendly licensing terms because you can run Oracle on AWS. But oracles gonna do everything you can to make sure that the licensing terms her onerous in that environment, they want you to do it on their infrastructure or on their environment and really opening up to Azure. Now, the government contrast that they can run it there. And for me, that trust resident. When I talk to the partner ecosystem, there definitely is some concern about Amazon's power in the marketplace and what they will do. Amazon, to their credit, has a big ecosystem there. Marketplace is phenomenal and they are open and give customers choice. But obviously, just like if you serve on amazon dot com, if it's a Amazon Basics or Amazon provider solution, they're probably going toe move that them in that way. Every company does this for, you know, Google makes sure that they optimize for their ads and everything like that. Microsoft in the past was known for optimizing their licensing revenue. Today they're more trusted. They're more open. I think Santa leaves that on the from the top. But you know so many things that they need to dig into. So Jet I not something I'd expect to spend a lot of time on this week, But thank you for bringing it up happily undertone. Because what the moral of the stories today cloud is AWS and Azure are the clear leaders. Yes, AWS still has a sizable lead. A measure is slowly eating into that lead. But as a as a user, as an enterprise, as any company out there, you can't be wrong by choosing either of those solutions. And one of Microsoft's embracing is that multi cloud environment going back to art will talk about how do I live in that multi cloud world? Eight of us still leads with their hybrid solution and use eight of us don't use other clouds. Azure is more embracing of a multi cloud world. >>So so let's talk about that now. But I just in terms of the trust at a time where there is such deep and tremendous skepticism, a big tech in government right now, the trust really is a crucial element. We're gonna We're gonna talk about that today with a lot of our guests two developments that you're most interested in. And I really want to dig into here as your ark. We're gonna start azure Arkin Power platform. But as your brand new today, uh, your thoughts, your impressions? >>Yes. So, as your ark, I can automate update with my policies across any environment, not just azure. So where I look at this and say, OK, do I manage azure with this? Absolutely. It's got kubernetes in it, so I should be able to move things around if need be. My my data center. In what? I'm putting their all of the azure stack and EJ hub all of these azure pieces in my data center. Can I manage that with us? Of course. The question is, what about if I'm using Google? Service is if I'm using A W S service is in the demo that they ran. They showed 80 was and said, Oh, we can manage that I said, That's great that they can. But will customers actually do that? There's a certain skill set. There's no way a program for it. And of course, AWS has its tooling that everybody uses their. So we've been trying to get that single pane of glass of, you know, for more than my entire career. And the techies I talked to is that pane of glass is nothing but P a. I n is the joke we always make. So it is great that they've done this by the way it's on Lee in Tech preview right now, so it's great that they have this. We've been saying for years that Microsoft, if you talk about hybrid, has the lead when you talk about thought, leadership and solutions. But really, that hybrid solution is azure and data center, and I've got my APs that live everywhere. So 03 65 or in my data center in there. What we're really hearing here is a comprehensive reimagining of hybrid, as we've been talking about it more recently is I really blur the lines between my data center, the public cloud and even the edge. So it's great to see Microsoft do this. I got a lot of friends that are at the V M World Europe Show in Barcelona this week. We've been talking about this in the V M where environment for last couple of years of the VM, where on AWS via where on Azure V M wear on Google, Oracle, IBM and more. So it's great that Microsoft has stepped up here. In some ways. It makes me really think how I thought about Microsoft because Microsoft has been, in my mind a leader and hybrid and realizing that they need to really, really make a significant change to the portfolio. To really deliver on the promise of hybrid and multi My definition of when we will have a true multi con solution is when the value that extract from the system is greater than the sum of the parts. And absolutely that's not where we are today. Microsoft has a lot of pieces. Absolutely. They have a right to be one of the leaders pulling those pieces together. And really, it is a place where you see Microsoft and IBM, where partnering, but also all going to be that leader in the management of my cloud native environment. And we're gonna spend a lot of time this week talking to the developers because that's another area that sought to spend a lot of time. Those two point 6,000,000 citizen developers, as he calls them. I'm sure you must have really loved Rebecca. 61% of job openings for developers are outside of the tech sector. >>Well, exactly, and that is that is such a huge point and that's what Sathya said. That's always been our sweet spot wear for the citizen developers and we want to democratize computing. We want to make sure that you can bring your best self to work and be your most productive self to work in. So many of the tools that they have introduced today are all about creativity, collaboration, time management, productivity, individual time productivity as well as team productivity. So there's a lot of exciting developments today. Let's talk about power platform. Speaking of the parts and pieces What what does it do? What most interests you and excites you about power platform >>boy. So you know, first, the last thing. The citizen developers. It's funny when most people do, you know, where do I start? And I started to excel. And of course, Microsoft is probably the company that most people I'm old enough now that I remember, you know, using the spreadsheets before Excel was the leader that it was there. But the power platform, The thing I've been looking at is way were here a year ago. There was no power platform. Did we talk a lot about a I Absolutely. We talk about data warehousing and business intelligence and all of these things. So I'm trying to understand how much of This is just the new umbrella. Platt, the new umbrella messaging around it and how much there's new products. I talked to a couple people that dig in straight here. I talked to a couple of Microsoft Mbps. Which way? There are lots of them here. I haven't mentioned it, Rebecca already. But the community at the show is excellent. It is welcoming. It is engaging. Diversity is front and center at this show and Microsoft Great kudos for that because it ties into that citizen developers. But when you talk about the power platform, it's about enabling the citizen developers. So a few announcements in their power automate is really there are p a solution. We've got power virtual agents, which is understanding natural language and conversations. Such actually did a cute little thing. He went toe like universal and fought the demi Gorgon from stranger things. Stranger things, fan. I thought it was really cute and everything. But, he explained, he's like, Okay, here's you know it's understanding my name and saying, Get back to me. It's understanding the movements that I'm doing and turning that into what what's happening so way. Understand that we're still relatively early into gaining the full benefits out of a I hear. But there's a lot of tooling, and from what the people I've talked to is the power platform absolutely is much more than just a rebranding. There are acquisitions that have come in. There are software launches and you know, Microsoft in the agile, continuously shipping code mode that everybody is in these days, you know, is going through a lot of veneration. So I believe that you know that the platform was announced back in the spring, and something that I've seen with Microsoft and many companies like Cisco, that air going heavily of software, a platform of software, actually could be a unifying factor forcing function between all of these groups. So rather than saying, Oh my gosh, Microsoft, you've got, you know, 1000 different software packages that I would by no, no, that's not the way you think about it. You know, they don't come on a CD or disk anymore. Instead, it's there's something that I plug into on it, cloud enabled. It's able to be, you know, purchase interruptible model. So we've got number of guests that that power platform absolutely is. You know, hearing good things in the ecosystem and absolutely, you know, you know, it is a strength of Microsoft when you talk about the leverage and use of data in a business environment, on is their legacy. >>And this is a company that is going from strength to strength right now, really firing on all four senators cylinders, azure office, 3 65 windows. We haven't talked about fortnight and the other gaming elements here, but in terms of, um, usage issues, I know there were There were a couple of hiccups last week. >>Yeah, so you know, outages or something. People are definitely worried about the cloud. There was reported last week that there was some availability and performance issues. They were throttling things back. They were saying you couldn't scale and we're like, Wait, you know, infinite compute, infinite storage on demand. That's what we need. And from some of the things I heard from the community, the gaming platforms actually were impacting this and actually gaming that run across both AWS and azure. So it definitely is a little bit of a red flag. You know, your azure, your your your microsoft, and you want to talk about that you are a leader in the face. You can trust them. We're gonna keep you going. Well, you know, cos have spent decades making sure that their data centers have the up time and reliability that we need. You know, when I talk to the big cloud providers, they have some of the same conversation we were having back in the infrastructure world, You know, 15 years ago about data availability and data loss, You know? D u D E l date on availability and data loss. It was a four letter word. You can't have it. You would have war rooms and make for the things you know. Don't go down so little bit of a red flag especially, you know, will there be any contesting of the government deal? You don't want something sitting there saying Oh, hey, wait. I have a critical you know d o d operation. That needs to happen. Wait, We can't speak out when we need it. You know that. That's a no No. >>Right. Exactly. Well, this is these air, all the topics we're going to get into and then some over the next three days, it's gonna be an action packed show. I'm looking forward to it. A lot of great guests to thanks >>so much. I can't wait. I >>hope you'll stay tuned for more of the cubes. Live coverage of Microsoft IC night coming up in just a little bit.

(upbeat music) >> Live from Orlando, Florida, it's theCUBE covering Microsoft Ignite. Brought to you by Cohesity and theCUBE's ecosystem partners. >> Welcome everyone to day one of theCUBE's live coverage of Microsoft Ignite here at the Orange County Civic Center. I'm here -- I'm Rebecca Knight -- my cohost, Stu Miniman. This is the first CUBE show ever at Microsoft. It's unbelievable! >> Yeah, Rebecca, it's a little surprising. You know, we started back in 2010 doing these events, we've done hundreds of shows, we've done thousands of interviews, we've had lots of Microsoft people, but the first time at a Microsoft show, there's plenty of people I've bumped into that don't know theCUBE. 30,000 people in attendance here, so really excited to dig into this community and ecosystem and show 'em what it's all about. >> We're making history. So today, we had Satya Nadella up there on the main stage. What is your big takeaway from his keynote, Stu? >> Yeah, so Rebecca, Satya Nadella, obviously has really helped turn around Microsoft's -- really, the way people think about Microsoft. 'Cause it's interesting, when I look at the people we're going to be talking this week, lots of them have been with Microsoft ten years, twenty years, or more, so. Microsoft is one of those stalwarts in technology, they are obviously critical in a lot of environments. Everything from the latest Windows 2019 got announced today, there's excitement there, but they're playing in the cloud, they're playing all over the environment but Satya has brought new energy, some change to the culture I know you're going to want to talk about, and really came out talking about the vision for the future and what was interesting to me compared to some other big tech shows that I go to, it wasn't product focused, it wasn't on the new widget. They touched on things like Azure and, of course, AI, and some future things but it was really business productivity at its core is what I think about. If you think about Microsoft, I mean, we've all used the Office Suite and watched that go from Microsoft getting into the apps to being the main apps to pushing people to Office 365, so. I hear things about like business productivity and when they put in the Intelligent Cloud and the Intelligent Edge, it wasn't product categories they went into, but really speaking to broader terms to the business, so. It was interesting and a little bit different from what I would hear at say the companies you compare them to. The Amazons of the world, the VMwares of the world. So, a slightly different messaging. >> I couldn't agree with you more, and just talking about the different kind of energy that Nadella brings to this company. Microsoft, as you said, a lot of the people here are veterans; they've been here ten or twenty years. Microsoft is pushing on forty-five years old. This is a company that's entering middle age in an industry that is all about the new, the fresh, the buzzy. And so, he really does bring that kind of fresh outlook to it. His catchword of the day is "tech intensity" and this is what he talked about how we not only need to be adopting the latest and greatest technology, we also need to be building it. Seems like he was really doubling down on this idea that industry leaders need to be pushing boundaries in whatever industry they may be in. >> And I did like that, 'cause it's interesting. The easy compare, and I hope I don't do it too much, but you look at Amazon: Amazon talks to those builders. That's like the core, what you say when you go to the airports that have their branding, it's all about the builders, so. To the cloud native piece, I want the developer, developer, developer - and Microsoft knows a thing about developers too - but they bridge that gap. When we first talked about the world hybrid cloud, Microsoft's one of the first companies that comes to mind when I think about because they have such a base in the legacy world, they're modernizing that world, and they are helping to build that next generation space. Microsoft isn't one to necessarily chase the new shiny. They've done lots of big acquisitions, I mean, you talk developers, they bought GitHub. That's the center, it's like, if you're a developer, "What's your resume?" "Oh, well just check me out on GitHub, see how many stars I have." That kind of stuff. So that's where Microsoft lives and as you said, right, "tech intensity" - that balance between what are you buying and what are you build. I like that commentary from Satya. What I liked about him is saying, "Look, there are things that have been commoditized out there and you probably shouldn't waste your time building." I always tell companies, "Look, there's things that you suck at, or things that other people do way better. Let them do that. Why are you spending your cycles reinventing the wheel?" The thing I didn't love as much is he was like, "Well, you got to be careful who you partner with, you don't want to necessarily partner with somebody that's going to be your competitor." Come on. When I talked to a couple users coming out and I'm like, "What'd you think of that?" And they're like, "Look, here's the thing: love Microsoft, use Microsoft, but we use Amazon, we're going to use both, it's a multi-cloud world." Lots of SAS, multiple public clouds, and I want to hear about how Microsoft lives in that world. They can't not partner with Amazon. Matter of fact, I was reading one of the press releases. Oh, Skype will be available on the new Amazon Echo Show. So, it's the world of co-opetition. You've got, look around this ecosystem: everybody -- you partner where you can, you try to overlook the places where you fight, and you got to help the customers, and I think Microsoft does a good job, but you can't just say, "Let's not talk about Amazon or AWS because oh, that's going to be competitive." You know, really. >> And also, it's sort of, what he says and what he does, which are two different things. Because he also brought up the CEO of Adobe and the CEO of SAP up there to talk about this new Open Data Initiative. He talked - all three CEOS - talked at length about this small data problem that companies have, which is that they have all of this vast amount of digital information that they are creating and storing and manipulating, but it's all kept in silos. And so, they know a lot, but this end isn't talking to this end. So they want to change that, they're setting out to change it. >> You know, three companies that, if you were to tell me, okay, who's helping and doing well with digital transformation, and understands my data? Well, you couldn't do much better than starting with Microsoft, Adobe, and SAP. Absolutely, great suite. Adobe and SAP both made acquisitions in this phase, they understand the data. And I have to give huge kudos to Microsoft on how they're doing in open source. I've got enough years in the industry that I think back to when things like Linux were going to help try to topple Microsoft. And you see, Microsoft embracing almost half of the workloads in Azure or Linux. They had announcements, they were talking up on stage about partnering with Red Hat. And Microsoft, working with developers, working in the cloud, open source is critically important there. Talk about AI, open source has to be a key piece of these. And the Open Data Initiative: I like what I saw. Big names, there were definitely some surprise out of it. It was kind of the biggest news out of Satya Nadella's keynote this morning. The thing I will drop back on and say okay, we've all seen some of these announcements out there. Would've loved to see a customer or an example. Satya Nadella did a good talking about some of the IOT solutions that are going to get to AI, and I think it was a utility that was like, here they have, they're trialing it out and everything. So how do we measure the success of this? It's extensible and they said absolutely, other partners and other customers can tie into this. But -- is this a year, two years, how long before this becomes reality? Hopefully, three years from now, we look back and say we were there with something really important to help customers own and take their data and take it to the next level, but as of right now, it's a good move by some very strong players. And, of course, Microsoft partnership's key to what they're doing. >> They've identified the problem and that's what today was about. Sort of, we know this is a problem, we're going to work on this together. And I think it's also, talking about the open source angle which you brought up, it really is emblematic of this kinder, gentler Microsoft, which is all about inclusivity, all about helping everyone do better at their job and in their lives. >> Rebecca, I love your take. You talk about diversity, you talk about the culture of change, I mean. Satya leading from the top. We covered a few years ago, he put his foot in his mouth at a Grace Hopper event. But very much a lot of women involved, we're going to have a number of women executives on the program here. What do you see from Microsoft in this space? >> So the incident you're referring to is when he was asked about how a woman should ask for a raise and he basically said, "Oh, you really shouldn't ask - just do your best work and the rewards will come to you." Well, any woman in any industry, regardless of technology, knows that's just not the way it works. And I think, particularly now, he can look back and say, "Oh my gosh, that was a gaff." But even then, he recognized it and he apologized immediately and said, "No, things have got to change and I need to be part of the solution." So he does have a lot of initiatives around diversity in tech and helping women reach leadership positions. In terms of the cultural transformation that you reference at the very beginning of the show, his book is called Hit Refresh and it really is all about the growth mindset. Which is the work that Carol Dweck has done, and Angela Duckworth too. So this is really about this constant learning, this constant curiosity, this constant "don't be a know it all, be a learn it all," be so willing to collaborate and hear other perspectives and don't dismiss other people's perspective out of hand. And that's really, that's the way they want to operate as a company and as a culture. And then they also want to push that out into how its products behave in the workplace and how they help teams work together. >> Yeah, and that "be a learn it all, not a know it all," not only resonates with me but it part of the mission of what we do here on theCUBE. Look, my first Microsoft show. Trust me, I've been studying hard on this. I mean, I've known Microsoft since my earliest days working in the tech community and the like, but first time coming in. We always know that people need to learn, they want to learn, and that's one of the things that we hope our three days of coverage is going to help people understand, get a taste for all the things that are going on in the show. There are hundreds if not thousands of sessions that are all recorded. How do I choose what to go dig into, what announcements mean the most, what am I going to want to dig into? So that's one of the things that I was excited to hear and excited to help bring to our community here. >> Right, so we're going to help our viewers do that and we're going to learn a lot from our great lineup of guests. So Stu, it's really exciting to be here. We're going to kick off three days of coverage in just a little bit. I'm Rebecca Knight for Stu Miniman. Stay tuned to theCUBE here at Microsoft Ignite.

joined by satya nadella no tell us what about about your your your thoughts on this event in general you know last year was about Big Data this year it's a little bit more focused a little bit broader focus on the modern enterprise as they say what's your take on kind of >> this event it's a great event on this is my first time here as well and having a chance to even see a couple of panels and just participate i think this notion of a modern enterprise is for real i think that it is re-imagination of what does infrastructure mean what do applications mean inside of the enterprise and we're going through this kak tonic shift which we participate in and so to have a forum like this to >> discuss that was just great so let's dig into that a little bit what you know what makes the what makes the moderate enterprise it's it's certainly a cloud and virtualization you've got the Big Data piece kind of the DevOps model of application development how do you kind of define what all bring to bringing together all these different elements >> what makes a modern enterprise yeah one of the things that I like to sort of make sure we focus on I work on the infrastructure business at Microsoft so >> if you're in the infrastructure business the key thing is to be in touch with the applications and it turns out in our own case today we are building a pretty diverse set of applications both consumer and enterprise so we're building vein which is an applied machine learning application real in building office 365 which is an enterprise focus collaboration communication application we're building dynamics and another enterprise crm ERP in the cloud application and what have you so that diversity of applications makes you rethink what is the infrastructure needed from storage compute as well as the network and so we are building a new operating system for the modern enterprise to be able to deploy these modern applications so that's kind of how I conceptualize I would say there are four major elements to it the first one is it's inside of the data center you have much more of a software driven by descent where you're orchestrating your compute storage and network in support of your applications either at the data center or multi data center scale because there's not a single atom rise that's not using some public cloud provider or another service provider in addition to what they already are virtualizing inside their own private cloud so that is all a software control plane and so we are really thinking about what is the modern operating system that enables you to manage the data center a second dimension would be the what is driven through consumerization of IT I like to describe it as transforming IT to be much more people century so you want end-users to adopt the devices they want and still have access to all their applications and data and yet aighty needs to be able to set compliance and policy so how do you really reimagine that is another dimension big data is something you reference there's not going to be a single application that's not a big data application and so those are the major major teams and the last thing I would say is this DevOps so not only have you built the application but it's even the life cycle around the applications being reimagined how developers and operations professionals come together in support of an ongoing improvement and continuous integration these four megatrends I think constitute a modern enterprise >> infrastructure interesting so let's dig into a little bit about what you mentioned about the use of kind of public cloud infrastructure as well as your internal data center so you've got these hybrid environments they're starting to emerge again pretty much software lead a software led infrastructure is what we're calling it a wiki bond how do you go about actually making it possible for for CIOs and their teams and to actually manage those environments in as efficient way as possible you know making decisions about which applications are deployed in the public cloud which it deployed in your data center how they interact potentially applications that are drawing on data from both spots it's obviously can get very complex so you know Microsoft is one of those public cloud providers with windows so how do you approach that product so >> if you sort of take what you just described which is if you you sort of start with the design point that there will be a public cloud there will be a private cloud and a service provider cloud then how you think about the software control is going to be defined by that design so it's not going to be narrowly defined as bring everything into my data center and I'll help you manage it but it is actually distributed so I think of this is the true fruition of distributed computing and we believe in that so then what are the things that matter first is identity so anything whenever things get distributed the most important thing that brings back things together is actually identity of users and identity for resources so active directory was a great resource for many enterprises in terms of how they came the complexity of the previous generation of client server now we have replumbed and reimagined active directory with Azure Active Directory so this consistency in directories helps IT administrators manage this complexity the next one is virtualization so not only would you be able to virtualize on your private cloud you should be able to move the same work cloud workload which is virtualized to any of these other clouds so you need a degree of guarantee that the performance characteristics of a virtualized workload get maintained across all so that's another thing that with our hyper-v investments and our add your investments we are in a making sure that happens the other one would be management so with if you can be sitting on the system center management console in the orchestrator and looking at a workload which could be in fact in 11 of these clouds or in fact the tears of a single app could be split which is the front end is on azure the back end is back in on premise and so that's also very very important to have a management tier which is the control plane that allows you to manage this complexity and lastly it's the consistency of the application platform Excel so if you're building and development you never want to be in the state where you build a great app but you can never check out so if you build it in the public cloud in the case of azure you should be able to take it and run it on a private cloud or on a service provider so these four things are on identity management virtualization and application platform I think is the core investment you've got to make to help enterprises truly adopt the cloud while you know it's >> complex but you gotta tame the complexity and then of course be what you're talking about it really is a lot of data being generated companies of course want to want to start taking an end of that data they want to analyze it they want to actually take those insights and turn them into either applications or perhaps convey them to executives and others in terms of visualization and of course one of those underlying platforms is to do talk about Microsoft's approach to Hadoop I know you're working with Hortonworks you actually kind of discontinued working on your own Big Data technology when you realize I think that you know who Duke was gonna is going to become the de facto standard so talk about how you're making it possible to bring the dip into this environment where more and more companies are looking to ring that it may be as a big data hub kind of store a lot of data and then feeds out to applications different workloads what is your approach to actually making that I guess enterprise ready yep and making it easy to get it get started and then term you know maybe science projects into really production whether the quantity I >> mean this notion of being able to take data and convert it into insights in support of enterprise goals is sort of the holy grail of this moment and so one of the things that we are actively doing is to bring a lot of the traditional value we've always had if you think about the momentum we have with our self-service bi capabilities on the edge of data which is Excel SharePoint sequel analysis services is where all data goes to in order to be able to drive in sites within and you know with it with end users because at the end of the day humans will be involved to be able to drive inside out of all of this data so now the question is how do we take that edge loop and connected with the information production which is upstream and that is where we are completing the story with having HD inside haven't even a relational interface on top of HT insight for in-memory ad-hoc query analysis like a data warehouse on top of it which i think the Hadoop community itself is adopting which is a sequel interface on Hadoop is probably one of the more talked about things nowadays and so this notion of having a complete data platform everything from MapReduce to stream processing to sequel like query interactively and then empowering end-users and workflows with data around their users which share for in Excel where we've invested in things like a power pivot and Power View which are actually powerful in-memory databases in fact I would say the most powerful in-memory database now is power view inside of Excel from where you can issue a sequel I mean basically a hive query to HD inside and populate millions of rows in a tabular column form that you're very familiar with we think that that democratization of big data is going to be very very important to acceptance of it as you said it from science projects or just being in the data science department to bring ubiquitous so we've only got time for >> one more question so just love to get your kind of future outlook what are some of the key priorities for you and your group over the next day 6 to 12 >> months I mean the key thing for us is really bootstrapping our cloud business we've got some fantastic traction with office 365 it's really doing very well in the q3 earnings we talked about how we have known a run rate basis a billion dollars in revenue going to office 365 and many customers who are to office 365 never bought an exchange server from so we're even it's not even zero something really in the short run it please and so we're very glad with that and there is a sure is just a natural complement to any customer who's already got office 365 sharepoint extensions the end user bi Active Directory administration all of these are sort of very natural extensions but agile itself now has got very very significant momentum yesterday we talked about how as urine as your services with all of our service provider partners has also got a billion dollars in revenue so that means when it comes to the core of the enterprise and their move to the cloud which is going to be complimenting a lot of what they're already doing in on premise is something that we're a pretty major player on and if anything we want to be solving the here and now practical problems with a forward-looking vision around identity around consistency of the management plane around virtualization compatibility around the application platforms and I think that that's what we're really up to in the immediate future all right yeah I think you really hit on something there with these gonna be high route deployments they're going to you know just much like in big data you know dupe isn't going to come in and replace your database your relational database and neither is the cloud whenever place your internal data center they've got to work together it sounds like you guys are working hard to kind of make that as seamless of the proposal as possible for your clients so I slept in Delaware Microsoft appreciate you coming on the cube thanks very much well hope you come back and join us about 39 thank you so much we'll be right back from the excel at Stanford symposium with our next guest writing for this

hi everybody welcome back to the Q we're here live at the Stanford accel partners summit I should say event here at Stanford University I am joined by Satya Nadella who is the president of server and tools baby Scholars Program with the Q I thanks so much for coming on appreciate it I think first time here on the cube we've had of course lots of folks on Microsoft on in the past and always a great to get your your take so tell us a little bit about your your your thoughts on this event in general you know last year was about big data this year it's a little bit more focused a little bit broader focus on the modern enterprise as they say what's your take on kind of this events it's a great event down this is my first time here as well and um having a chance to even see a couple of panels and just participate I think this notion of a modern enterprise is for real I think that it is a reimagining of what does infrastructure mean what do applications mean inside of the enterprise and we're going through this tectonic shift which we participate in and so to have a forum like this to discuss that was just great so let's dig into that a little bit what you know what makes the what makes the modern enterprise it's it's certainly a cloud and virtualization you've got the big data piece kind of the DevOps model of application development how do you kind of define what all bring to bringing together all these different elements what makes a modern enterprise yeah one of the things that I like to sort of make sure we focus on I work on the infrastructure business at Microsoft so you're in the infrastructure business the key thing is to be in touch with the applique and it turns out in our own case today we are building a pretty diverse set of applications both consumer and enterprise so they're building Bane which is an applied machine learning application we learn building office 365 which is an enterprise focused collaboration communication application we're building dynamics and another Enterprise CRM ERP in the cloud application and what have you so that diversity of applications makes you rethink what is the infrastructure needed from storage compute as well as the network and so we are building a new operating system for the modern enterprise to be able to deploy these modern applications so that's kind of how I conceptualize I would say there are four major elements to it the first one is it's inside of the data center you have much more of a software driven data set where you're orchestrating your compute storage and network in support of your applications either at the data center or multi data center scale because there's not a single enterprise that's not using some public cloud provider or another service provider in addition to what they already are virtualizing inside their own private cloud so that is all a software control plane and so we are really thinking about what is the modern operating system that enables you to manage the data center a second dimension would be the what is driven through consumerization of IT I like to describe it as transforming IT to be much more people central so you want end-users to adopt the devices they want and still have access to all their applications and data and yet IT needs to be able to set compliance and policy so how do you really arean that is in another dimension big data is something you referenced there's not going to be a single application that's not a big data application and so those are the major Keane's and the last thing I would say is this DevOps so not only have you built the application but it's even the lifecycle around the application is being reimagined how developers and operations professionals come together in support of an ongoing improvement and continuous integration these four mega trends I think constitute a modern enterprise infrastructure matrix so let's dig into a little bit about what you mentioned about the use of kind of public cloud infrastructure as well as your internal data center so you've got these hybrid environments that are starting to emerge again pretty much software lead a software led infrastructure is what we're calling it a wiki bond how do you go about actually making it possible for for CIOs and their teams and to actually manage those environments in an efficient way as possible you know making decisions about which applications are deployed in the public cloud which are deployed in your data center how they interact potentially applications that are drawing on data from both spots it's obviously can get very complex so you know Microsoft is one of those public cloud providers with Windows Azure so how do you approach that problem so if you sort of take what you just described which is if you you sort of start with the design point that there will be a public cloud there will be a private cloud and a service provider cloud then how you think about the software control is going to be defined by that design so it's not going to be narrowly defined as bring everything into my data center and I'll help you manage it but it is actually distributed so if I think of this is the true fruition of distributed computing and we believe in that so then what are the things that matter first is identity so anything whenever things get distributed the most important thing that brings back things together is actually identity of users and identity for resources so Active Directory was a great resource for many enterprises in terms of how they came the complexity of the previous generation of client server now we've replumbed and we my Active Directory with Azure Active Directory so this consistency in directories helps IT administrators manage this complexity the next one is virtualization so not only will you be able to virtualize on your private cloud you should be able to move the same work cloud workload which is virtualized to any of these other clouds so you need a degree of guarantee that the performance characteristics of a virtualized workload get maintained across all so that's another thing that with our hyper-v investments and our agile investments we are making sure that happens the other one would be management so with if you can be sitting on the system center management console and the orchestrator and looking at a workload which could be in fact in one one of these clouds or in fact the tears of a single application could be split which is the front end is on Azure the back end is back in on-premise and so that's also very very important to have a management tier which is the control plane that allows you to manage this complexity and lastly it's the consistency of the application platform itself so if you're building a development you never want to be in the state where you build a great app but you can never check out so you if you build it in the public cloud in the case of azure you should be able to take it and run it on a private cloud or on a service provider cloud so these four things are on identity management virtualization and application platform I think is the core investment you've got to make to help enterprises truly adopt the cloud while you know it's complex but you gotta tame the complexity and then of course what you're talking about it really is a lot of data being generated companies of course want to want to start taking advantage of that data they want to analyze it they want to actually take those insights and turn them into either applications or perhaps convey them to executives and others in terms of visualization and of course one of those underlying platforms is to do talk about Microsoft's approach to Hadoop I know you're working with Hortonworks you actually kind of discontinued working on your own big data technology when you as I think that you know Hadoop was given is going to become the de facto standard so talk about how you're making it possible to bring the dupe into this environment where more and more companies are looking to bring that in maybe as a big data hub kind of store a lot of data and then feeds out to applications different workloads what is your approach actually making that I guess Enterprise ready yeah and making it easy to get and get started and then turn you know maybe science projects into really production whether the point is right I mean this notion of being able to take data and convert it into insights in support of enterprise goals is sort of the holy grail of this moment and so one of the things that we are actively doing is to bring a lot of the traditional value we've always had if you think about the momentum we have with our self-service bi capabilities on the edge of data which is Excel sharepoint sequel analysis services is where all data goes to in order to be able to drive insights within and you know with it with end users because at the end of the day humans will be involved to be able to drive inside out of all of this data so now the question is how do we take that edge loop and connected with the information production which is upstream and that is where we are completing the story with having HD inside having even a relational interface on top of HD insight for in-memory ad hoc query analysis like a data warehouse on top of it which I think the Hadoop community itself is adopting which is a sequel interface on Hadoop is probably one of the more talked about things nowadays and so this notion of having a complete data platform everything from MapReduce to stream processing to sequel like query interactively and then empowering end-users and workflows with data around end users which share or in Excel where we've invested in things like a power pivot and Power View which are actually powerful in-memory databases in fact I would say the most powerful in-memory database now is Power View inside of Excel from where you can issue a sequel I mean basically a hive query to HD inside and populate millions of in a tabular column form that you're very familiar with we think that that democratization of big data is going to be very very important to acceptance of it as you said it from science projects or just being in the data science department to bring ubiquitous so we've only got time for one more question so just love to get your kind of future outlook what are some of the key priorities for you and your group over the next say six to twelve months I mean the key thing for us is really bootstrapping our cloud business we've got some fantastic traction with office 365 it's really doing very well in the q3 earnings we talked about how we have a moving on a run rate basis of billion dollars a revenue going to office 365 and many customers who are coming to office 365 never bought an exchange server from so we're even it's not even 0 some really in the short run at least and so we're very glad with that and there is a j''r is just a natural complement to any customer who's already got office 365 SharePoint extensions the end user bi Active Directory administration all of these are sort of very natural extensions but Azure itself now has got very very significant momentum yesterday we talked about how Azure and Azure services with all of our service provider partners has also got a billion dollars of revenue so that means when it comes to the core of the enterprise and their move to the cloud which is going to be complementing a lot of what they're already doing in on-premise is something that we're a pretty major player on and if anything we want to be solving the here and now practical problems with a forward-looking vision around identity around consistency of the management plane around virtualization compatibility around the application platforms and I think that that's what we are up to in the immediate future alright yeah I think you really hit on something there with these gonna be hybrid deployments they're going to you know just much like in big data you know doop isn't going to come in and replace your database your relational database and neither is the cloud going to replace your internal data center they've got to work together it sounds like you guys are working hard to kind of make that as seamless of the proposal as possible for your clients so Satya Nadella for Microsoft we appreciate you coming on the queue thanks very much well hope you come back and join us about three thank you so much we'll be right back from the Excel Stanford symposium with our next guests ready for this

(upbeat intro music) >> Hello everyone. Welcome to theCUBE's coverage of International Women's Day. I'm your host, John Furrier, here in Palo Alto, California. Got a special remote guest coming in. Teresa Carlson, President and Chief Commercial Officer at Flexport, theCUBE alumni, one of the first, let me go back to 2013, Teresa, former AWS. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on. >> Oh my gosh, almost 10 years. That is unbelievable. It's hard to believe so many years of theCUBE. I love it. >> It's been such a great honor to interview you and follow your career. You've had quite the impressive run, executive level woman in tech. You've done such an amazing job, not only in your career, but also helping other women. So I want to give you props to that before we get started. Thank you. >> Thank you, John. I, it's my, it's been my honor and privilege. >> Let's talk about Flexport. Tell us about your new role there and what it's all about. >> Well, I love it. I'm back working with another Amazonian, Dave Clark, who is our CEO of Flexport, and we are about 3,000 people strong globally in over 90 countries. We actually even have, we're represented in over 160 cities and with local governments and places around the world, which I think is super exciting. We have over 100 network partners and growing, and we are about empowering the global supply chain and trade and doing it in a very disruptive way with the use of platform technology that allows our customers to really have visibility and insight to what's going on. And it's a lot of fun. I'm learning new things, but there's a lot of technology in this as well, so I feel right at home. >> You quite have a knack from mastering growth, technology, and building out companies. So congratulations, and scaling them up too with the systems and processes. So I want to get into that. Let's get into your personal background. Then I want to get into the work you've done and are doing for empowering women in tech. What was your journey about, how did it all start? Like, I know you had a, you know, bumped into it, you went Microsoft, AWS. Take us through your career, how you got into tech, how it all happened. >> Well, I do like to give a shout out, John, to my roots and heritage, which was a speech and language pathologist. So I did start out in healthcare right out of, you know, university. I had an undergraduate and a master's degree. And I do tell everyone now, looking back at my career, I think it was super helpful for me because I learned a lot about human communication, and it has done me very well over the years to really try to understand what environments I'm in and what kind of individuals around the world culturally. So I'm really blessed that I had that opportunity to work in healthcare, and by the way, a shout out to all of our healthcare workers that has helped us get through almost three years of COVID and flu and neurovirus and everything else. So started out there and then kind of almost accidentally got into technology. My first small company I worked for was a company called Keyfile Corporation, which did workflow and document management out of Nashua, New Hampshire. And they were a Microsoft goal partner. And that is actually how I got into big tech world. We ran on exchange, for everybody who knows that term exchange, and we were a large small partner, but large in the world of exchange. And those were the days when you would, the late nineties, you would go and be in the same room with Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer. And I really fell in love with Microsoft back then. I thought to myself, wow, if I could work for a big tech company, I got to hear Bill on stage about saving, he would talk about saving the world. And guess what my next step was? I actually got a job at Microsoft, took a pay cut and a job downgrade. I tell this story all the time. Took like three downgrades in my role. I had been a SVP and went to a manager, and it's one of the best moves I ever made. And I shared that because I really didn't know the world of big tech, and I had to start from the ground up and relearn it. I did that, I just really loved that job. I was at Microsoft from 2000 to 2010, where I eventually ran all of the U.S. federal government business, which was a multi-billion dollar business. And then I had the great privilege of meeting an amazing man, Andy Jassy, who I thought was just unbelievable in his insights and knowledge and openness to understanding new markets. And we talked about government and how government needed the same great technology as every startup. And that led to me going to work for Andy in 2010 and starting up our worldwide public sector business. And I pinch myself some days because we went from two people, no offices, to the time I left we had over 10,000 people, billions in revenue, and 172 countries and had done really amazing work. I think changing the way public sector and government globally really thought about their use of technology and Cloud computing in general. And that kind of has been my career. You know, I was there till 2020, 21 and then did a small stint at Splunk, a small stint back at Microsoft doing a couple projects for Microsoft with CEO, Satya Nadella, who is also an another amazing CEO and leader. And then Dave called me, and I'm at Flexport, so I couldn't be more honored, John. I've just had such an amazing career working with amazing individuals. >> Yeah, I got to say the Amazon One well-documented, certainly by theCUBE and our coverage. We watched you rise and scale that thing. And like I said at a time, this will when we look back as a historic run because of the build out. I mean as a zero to massive billions at a historic time where government was transforming, I would say Microsoft had a good run there with Fed, but it was already established stuff. Federal business was like, you know, blocking and tackling. The Amazon was pure build out. So I have to ask you, what was your big learnings? Because one, you're a Seattle big tech company kind of entrepreneurial in the sense of you got, here's some working capital seed finance and go build that thing, and you're in DC and you're a woman. What did you learn? >> I learned that you really have to have a lot of grit. You, my mom and dad, these are kind of more southern roots words, but stick with itness, you know. you can't give up and no's not in your vocabulary. I found no is just another way to get to yes. That you have to figure out what are all the questions people are going to ask you. I learned to be very patient, and I think one of the things John, for us was our secret sauce was we said to ourselves, if we're going to do something super transformative and truly disruptive, like Cloud computing, which the government really had not utilized, we had to be patient. We had to answer all their questions, and we could not judge in any way what they were thinking because if we couldn't answer all those questions and prove out the capabilities of Cloud computing, we were not going to accomplish our goals. And I do give so much credit to all my colleagues there from everybody like Steve Schmidt who was there, who's still there, who's the CISO, and Charlie Bell and Peter DeSantis and the entire team there that just really helped build that business out. Without them, you know, we would've just, it was a team effort. And I think that's the thing I loved about it was it was not just sales, it was product, it was development, it was data center operations, it was legal, finance. Everybody really worked as a team and we were on board that we had to make a lot of changes in the government relations team. We had to go into Capitol Hill. We had to talk to them about the changes that were required and really get them to understand why Cloud computing could be such a transformative game changer for the way government operates globally. >> Well, I think the whole world and the tech world can appreciate your work and thank you later because you broke down those walls asking those questions. So great stuff. Now I got to say, you're in kind of a similar role at Flexport. Again, transformative supply chain, not new. Computing wasn't new when before Cloud came. Supply chain, not a new concept, is undergoing radical change and transformation. Online, software supply chain, hardware supply chain, supply chain in general, shipping. This is a big part of our economy and how life is working. Similar kind of thing going on, build out, growth, scale. >> It is, it's very much like that, John, I would say, it's, it's kind of a, the model with freight forwarding and supply chain is fairly, it's not as, there's a lot of technology utilized in this global supply chain world, but it's not integrated. You don't have a common operating picture of what you're doing in your global supply chain. You don't have easy access to the information and visibility. And that's really, you know, I was at a conference last week in LA, and it was, the themes were so similar about transparency, access to data and information, being able to act quickly, drive change, know what was happening. I was like, wow, this sounds familiar. Data, AI, machine learning, visibility, common operating picture. So it is very much the same kind of themes that you heard even with government. I do believe it's an industry that is going through transformation and Flexport has been a group that's come in and said, look, we have this amazing idea, number one to give access to everyone. We want every small business to every large business to every government around the world to be able to trade their goods, think about supply chain logistics in a very different way with information they need and want at their fingertips. So that's kind of thing one, but to apply that technology in a way that's very usable across all systems from an integration perspective. So it's kind of exciting. I used to tell this story years ago, John, and I don't think Michael Dell would mind that I tell this story. One of our first customers when I was at Keyfile Corporation was we did workflow and document management, and Dell was one of our customers. And I remember going out to visit them, and they had runners and they would run around, you know, they would run around the floor and do their orders, right, to get all those computers out the door. And when I think of global trade, in my mind I still see runners, you know, running around and I think that's moved to a very digital, right, world that all this stuff, you don't need people doing this. You have machines doing this now, and you have access to the information, and you know, we still have issues resulting from COVID where we have either an under-abundance or an over-abundance of our supply chain. We still have clogs in our shipping, in the shipping yards around the world. So we, and the ports, so we need to also, we still have some clearing to do. And that's the reason technology is important and will continue to be very important in this world of global trade. >> Yeah, great, great impact for change. I got to ask you about Flexport's inclusion, diversity, and equity programs. What do you got going on there? That's been a big conversation in the industry around keeping a focus on not making one way more than the other, but clearly every company, if they don't have a strong program, will be at a disadvantage. That's well reported by McKinsey and other top consultants, diverse workforces, inclusive, equitable, all perform better. What's Flexport's strategy and how are you guys supporting that in the workplace? >> Well, let me just start by saying really at the core of who I am, since the day I've started understanding that as an individual and a female leader, that I could have an impact. That the words I used, the actions I took, the information that I pulled together and had knowledge of could be meaningful. And I think each and every one of us is responsible to do what we can to make our workplace and the world a more diverse and inclusive place to live and work. And I've always enjoyed kind of the thought that, that I could help empower women around the world in the tech industry. Now I'm hoping to do my little part, John, in that in the supply chain and global trade business. And I would tell you at Flexport we have some amazing women. I'm so excited to get to know all. I've not been there that long yet, but I'm getting to know we have some, we have a very diverse leadership team between men and women at Dave's level. I have some unbelievable women on my team directly that I'm getting to know more, and I'm so impressed with what they're doing. And this is a very, you know, while this industry is different than the world I live in day to day, it's also has a lot of common themes to it. So, you know, for us, we're trying to approach every day by saying, let's make sure both our interviewing cycles, the jobs we feel, how we recruit people, how we put people out there on the platforms, that we have diversity and inclusion and all of that every day. And I can tell you from the top, from Dave and all of our leaders, we just had an offsite and we had a big conversation about this is something. It's a drum beat that we have to think about and live by every day and really check ourselves on a regular basis. But I do think there's so much more room for women in the world to do great things. And one of the, one of the areas, as you know very well, we lost a lot of women during COVID, who just left the workforce again. So we kind of went back unfortunately. So we have to now move forward and make sure that we are giving women the opportunity to have great jobs, have the flexibility they need as they build a family, and have a workplace environment that is trusted for them to come into every day. >> There's now clear visibility, at least in today's world, not withstanding some of the setbacks from COVID, that a young girl can look out in a company and see a path from entry level to the boardroom. That's a big change. A lot than even going back 10, 15, 20 years ago. What's your advice to the folks out there that are paying it forward? You see a lot of executive leaderships have a seat at the table. The board still underrepresented by most numbers, but at least you have now kind of this solidarity at the top, but a lot of people doing a lot more now than I've seen at the next levels down. So now you have this leveled approach. Is that something that you're seeing more of? And credit compare and contrast that to 20 years ago when you were, you know, rising through the ranks? What's different? >> Well, one of the main things, and I honestly do not think about it too much, but there were really no women. There were none. When I showed up in the meetings, I literally, it was me or not me at the table, but at the seat behind the table. The women just weren't in the room, and there were so many more barriers that we had to push through, and that has changed a lot. I mean globally that has changed a lot in the U.S. You know, if you look at just our U.S. House of Representatives and our U.S. Senate, we now have the increasing number of women. Even at leadership levels, you're seeing that change. You have a lot more women on boards than we ever thought we would ever represent. While we are not there, more female CEOs that I get an opportunity to see and talk to. Women starting companies, they do not see the barriers. And I will share, John, globally in the U.S. one of the things that I still see that we have that many other countries don't have, which I'm very proud of, women in the U.S. have a spirit about them that they just don't see the barriers in the same way. They believe that they can accomplish anything. I have two sons, I don't have daughters. I have nieces, and I'm hoping someday to have granddaughters. But I know that a lot of my friends who have granddaughters today talk about the boldness, the fortitude, that they believe that there's nothing they can't accomplish. And I think that's what what we have to instill in every little girl out there, that they can accomplish anything they want to. The world is theirs, and we need to not just do that in the U.S., but around the world. And it was always the thing that struck me when I did all my travels at AWS and now with Flexport, I'm traveling again quite a bit, is just the differences you see in the cultures around the world. And I remember even in the Middle East, how I started seeing it change. You've heard me talk a lot on this program about the fact in both Saudi and Bahrain, over 60% of the tech workers were females and most of them held the the hardest jobs, the security, the architecture, the engineering. But many of them did not hold leadership roles. And that is what we've got to change too. To your point, the middle, we want it to get bigger, but the top, we need to get bigger. We need to make sure women globally have opportunities to hold the most precious leadership roles and demonstrate their capabilities at the very top. But that's changed. And I would say the biggest difference is when we show up, we're actually evaluated properly for those kind of roles. We have a ways to go. But again, that part is really changing. >> Can you share, Teresa, first of all, that's great work you've done and I wan to give you props of that as well and all the work you do. I know you champion a lot of, you know, causes in in this area. One question that comes up a lot, I would love to get your opinion 'cause I think you can contribute heavily here is mentoring and sponsorship is huge, comes up all the time. What advice would you share to folks out there who were, I won't say apprehensive, but maybe nervous about how to do the networking and sponsorship and mentoring? It's not just mentoring, it's sponsorship too. What's your best practice? What advice would you give for the best way to handle that? >> Well yeah, and for the women out there, I would say on the mentorship side, I still see mentorship. Like, I don't think you can ever stop having mentorship. And I like to look at my mentors in different parts of my life because if you want to be a well-rounded person, you may have parts of your life every day that you think I'm doing a great job here and I definitely would like to do better there. Whether it's your spiritual life, your physical life, your work life, you know, your leisure life. But I mean there's, and there's parts of my leadership world that I still seek advice from as I try to do new things even in this world. And I tried some new things in between roles. I went out and asked the people that I respected the most. So I just would say for sure have different mentorships and don't be afraid to have that diversity. But if you have mentorships, the second important thing is show up with a real agenda and questions. Don't waste people's time. I'm very sensitive today. If you're, if you want a mentor, you show up and you use your time super effectively and be prepared for that. Sponsorship is a very different thing. And I don't believe we actually do that still in companies. We worked, thank goodness for my great HR team. When I was at AWS, we worked on a few sponsorship programs where for diversity in general, where we would nominate individuals in the company that we felt that weren't, that had a lot of opportunity for growth, but they just weren't getting a seat at the table. And we brought 'em to the table. And we actually kind of had a Chatham House rules where when they came into the meetings, they had a sponsor, not a mentor. They had a sponsor that was with them the full 18 months of this program. We would bring 'em into executive meetings. They would read docs, they could ask questions. We wanted them to be able to open up and ask crazy questions without, you know, feeling wow, I just couldn't answer this question in a normal environment or setting. And then we tried to make sure once they got through the program that we found jobs and support and other special projects that they could go do. But they still had that sponsor and that group of individuals that they'd gone through the program with, John, that they could keep going back to. And I remember sitting there and they asked me what I wanted to get out of the program, and I said two things. I want you to leave this program and say to yourself, I would've never had that experience if I hadn't gone through this program. I learned so much in 18 months. It would probably taken me five years to learn. And that it helped them in their career. The second thing I told them is I wanted them to go out and recruit individuals that look like them. I said, we need diversity, and unless you all feel that we are in an inclusive environment sponsoring all types of individuals to be part of this company, we're not going to get the job done. And they said, okay. And you know, but it was really one, it was very much about them. That we took a group of individuals that had high potential and a very diverse with diverse backgrounds, held 'em up, taught 'em things that gave them access. And two, selfishly I said, I want more of you in my business. Please help me. And I think those kind of things are helpful, and you have to be thoughtful about these kind of programs. And to me that's more sponsorship. I still have people reach out to me from years ago, you know, Microsoft saying, you were so good with me, can you give me a reference now? Can you talk to me about what I should be doing? And I try to, I'm not pray 100%, some things pray fall through the cracks, but I always try to make the time to talk to those individuals because for me, I am where I am today because I got some of the best advice from people like Don Byrne and Linda Zecker and Andy Jassy, who were very honest and upfront with me about my career. >> Awesome. Well, you got a passion for empowering women in tech, paying it forward, but you're quite accomplished and that's why we're so glad to have you on the program here. President and Chief Commercial Officer at Flexport. Obviously storied career and your other jobs, specifically Amazon I think, is historic in my mind. This next chapter looks like it's looking good right now. Final question for you, for the few minutes you have left. Tell us what you're up to at Flexport. What's your goals as President, Chief Commercial Officer? What are you trying to accomplish? Share a little bit, what's on your mind with your current job? >> Well, you kind of said it earlier. I think if I look at my own superpowers, I love customers, I love partners. I get my energy, John, from those interactions. So one is to come in and really help us build even a better world class enterprise global sales and marketing team. Really listen to our customers, think about how we interact with them, build the best executive programs we can, think about new ways that we can offer services to them and create new services. One of my favorite things about my career is I think if you're a business leader, it's your job to come back around and tell your product group and your services org what you're hearing from customers. That's how you can be so much more impactful, that you listen, you learn, and you deliver. So that's one big job. The second job for me, which I am so excited about, is that I have an amazing group called flexport.org under me. And flexport.org is doing amazing things around the world to help those in need. We just announced this new funding program for Tech for Refugees, which brings assistance to millions of people in Ukraine, Pakistan, the horn of Africa, and those who are affected by earthquakes. We just took supplies into Turkey and Syria, and Flexport, recently in fact, just did sent three air shipments to Turkey and Syria for these. And I think we did over a hundred trekking shipments to get earthquake relief. And as you can imagine, it was not easy to get into Syria. But you know, we're very active in the Ukraine, and we are, our goal for flexport.org, John, is to continue to work with our commercial customers and team up with them when they're trying to get supplies in to do that in a very cost effective, easy way, as quickly as we can. So that not-for-profit side of me that I'm so, I'm so happy. And you know, Ryan Peterson, who was our founder, this was his brainchild, and he's really taken this to the next level. So I'm honored to be able to pick that up and look for new ways to have impact around the world. And you know, I've always found that I think if you do things right with a company, you can have a beautiful combination of commercial-ity and giving. And I think Flexport does it in such an amazing and unique way. >> Well, the impact that they have with their system and their technology with logistics and shipping and supply chain is a channel for societal change. And I think that's a huge gift that you have that under your purview. So looking forward to finding out more about flexport.org. I can only imagine all the exciting things around sustainability, and we just had Mobile World Congress for Big Cube Broadcast, 5Gs right around the corner. I'm sure that's going to have a huge impact to your business. >> Well, for sure. And just on gas emissions, that's another thing that we are tracking gas, greenhouse gas emissions. And in fact we've already reduced more than 300,000 tons and supported over 600 organizations doing that. So that's a thing we're also trying to make sure that we're being climate aware and ensuring that we are doing the best job we can at that as well. And that was another thing I was honored to be able to do when we were at AWS, is to really cut out greenhouse gas emissions and really go global with our climate initiatives. >> Well Teresa, it's great to have you on. Security, data, 5G, sustainability, business transformation, AI all coming together to change the game. You're in another hot seat, hot roll, big wave. >> Well, John, it's an honor, and just thank you again for doing this and having women on and really representing us in a big way as we celebrate International Women's Day. >> I really appreciate it, it's super important. And these videos have impact, so we're going to do a lot more. And I appreciate your leadership to the industry and thank you so much for taking the time to contribute to our effort. Thank you, Teresa. >> Thank you. Thanks everybody. >> Teresa Carlson, the President and Chief Commercial Officer of Flexport. I'm John Furrier, host of theCUBE. This is International Women's Day broadcast. Thanks for watching. (upbeat outro music)

(light music) >> Announcer: TheCUBE's live coverage is made possible by funding from Dell Technologies. Creating technologies that drive human progress. (upbeat music) >> Welcome back to the Fira in Barcelona. Dave Vellante with Dave Nicholson. Lisa Martin's been here all week. John Furrier is in our Palo Alto studio, banging out all the news. Don't forget to check out siliconangle.com, thecube.net. This is day four, our last segment, winding down. MWC23, super excited to be here. Wayne Duso, friend of theCUBE, VP of engineering from products at AWS is here with Iyad Tarazi, who's the CEO of Federated Wireless. Gents, welcome. >> Good to be here. >> Nice to see you. >> I'm so stoked, Wayne, that we connected before the show. We texted, I'm like, "You're going to be there. I'm going to be there. You got to come on theCUBE." So thank you so much for making time, and thank you for bringing a customer partner, Federated Wireless. Everybody knows AWS. Iyad, tell us about Federated Wireless. >> We're a software and services company out of Arlington, Virginia, right outside of Washington, DC, and we're really focused on this new technology called Shared Spectrum and private wireless for 5G. Think of it as enterprises consuming 5G, the way they used to consume WiFi. >> Is that unrestricted spectrum, or? >> It is managed, organized, interference free, all through cloud platforms. That's how we got to know AWS. We went and got maybe about 300 products from AWS to make it work. Quite sophisticated, highly available, and pristine spectrum worth billions of dollars, but available for people like you and I, that want to build enterprises, that want to make things work. Also carriers, cable companies everybody else that needs it. It's really a new revolution for everyone. >> And that's how you, it got introduced to AWS. Was that through public sector, or just the coincidence that you're in DC >> No, I, well, yes. The center of gravity in the world for spectrum is literally Arlington. You have the DOD spectrum people, you have spectrum people from National Science Foundation, DARPA, and then you have commercial sector, and you have the FCC just an Uber ride away. So we went and found the scientists that are doing all this work, four or five of them, Virginia Tech has an office there too, for spectrum research for the Navy. Come together, let's have a party and make a new model. >> So I asked this, I'm super excited to have you on theCUBE. I sat through the keynotes on Monday. I saw Satya Nadella was in there, Thomas Kurian there was no AWS. I'm like, where's AWS? AWS is everywhere. I mean, you guys are all over the show. I'm like, "Hey, where's the number one cloud?" So you guys have made a bunch of announcements at the show. Everybody's talking about the cloud. What's going on for you guys? >> So we are everywhere, and you know, we've been coming to this show for years. But this is really a year that we can demonstrate that what we've been doing for the IT enterprise, IT people for 17 years, we're now bringing for telcos, you know? For years, we've been, 17 years to be exact, we've been bringing the cloud value proposition, whether it's, you know, cost efficiencies or innovation or scale, reliability, security and so on, to these enterprise IT folks. Now we're doing the same thing for telcos. And so whether they want to build in region, in a local zone, metro area, on-prem with an outpost, at the edge with Snow Family, or with our IoT devices. And no matter where they want to start, if they start in the cloud and they want to move to the edge, or they start in the edge and they want to bring the cloud value proposition, like, we're demonstrating all of that is happening this week. And, and very much so, we're also demonstrating that we're bringing the same type of ecosystem that we've built for enterprise IT. We're bringing that type of ecosystem to the telco companies, with CSPs, with the ISP vendors. We've seen plenty of announcements this week. You know, so on and so forth. >> So what's different, is it, the names are different? Is it really that simple, that you're just basically taking the cloud model into telco, and saying, "Hey, why do all this undifferentiated heavy lifting when we can do it for you? Don't worry about all the plumbing." Is it really that simple? I mean, that straightforward. >> Well, simple is probably not what I'd say, but we can make it straightforward. >> Conceptually. >> Conceptually, yes. Conceptually it is the same. Because if you think about, firstly, we'll just take 5G for a moment, right? The 5G folks, if you look at the architecture for 5G, it was designed to run on a cloud architecture. It was designed to be a set of services that you could partition, and run in different places, whether it's in the region or at the edge. So in many ways it is sort of that simple. And let me give you an example. Two things, the first one is we announced integrated private wireless on AWS, which allows enterprise customers to come to a portal and look at the industry solutions. They're not worried about their network, they're worried about solving a problem, right? And they can come to that portal, they can find a solution, they can find a service provider that will help them with that solution. And what they end up with is a fully validated offering that AWS telco SAS have actually put to its paces to make sure this is a real thing. And whether they get it from a telco, and, and quite frankly in that space, it's SIs such as Federated that actually help our customers deploy those in private environments. So that's an example. And then added to that, we had a second announcement, which was AWS telco network builder, which allows telcos to plan, deploy, and operate at scale telco network capabilities on the cloud, think about it this way- >> As a managed service? >> As a managed service. So think about it this way. And the same way that enterprise IT has been deploying, you know, infrastructure as code for years. Telco network builder allows the telco folks to deploy telco networks and their capabilities as code. So it's not simple, but it is pretty straightforward. We're making it more straightforward as we go. >> Jump in Dave, by the way. He can geek out if you want. >> Yeah, no, no, no, that's good, that's good, that's good. But actually, I'm going to ask an AWS question, but I'm going to ask Iyad the AWS question. So when we, when I hear the word cloud from Wayne, cloud, AWS, typically in people's minds that denotes off-premises. Out there, AWS data center. In the telecom space, yes, of course, in the private 5G space, we're talking about a little bit of a different dynamic than in the public 5G space, in terms of the physical infrastructure. But regardless at the edge, there are things that need to be physically at the edge. Do you feel that AWS is sufficiently, have they removed the H word, hybrid, from the list of bad words you're not allowed to say? 'Cause there was a point in time- >> Yeah, of course. >> Where AWS felt that their growth- >> They'll even say multicloud today, (indistinct). >> No, no, no, no, no. But there was a period of time where, rightfully so, AWS felt that the growth trajectory would be supported solely by net new things off premises. Now though, in this space, it seems like that hybrid model is critical. Do you see AWS being open to the hybrid nature of things? >> Yeah, they're, absolutely. I mean, just to explain from- we're a services company and a solutions company. So we put together solutions at the edge, a smart campus, smart agriculture, a deployment. One of our biggest deployment is a million square feet warehouse automation project with the Marine Corps. >> That's bigger than the Fira. >> Oh yeah, it's bigger, definitely bigger than, you know, a small section of here. It's actually three massive warehouses. So yes, that is the edge. What the cloud is about is that massive amount of efficiency has happened by concentrating applications in data centers. And that is programmability, that is APIs that is solutions, that is applications that can run on it, where people know how to do it. And so all that efficiency now is being ported in a box called the edge. What AWS is doing for us is bringing all the business and technical solutions they had into the edge. Some of the data may send back and forth, but that's actually a smaller piece of the value for us. By being able to bring an AWS package at the edge, we're bringing IoT applications, we're bringing high speed cameras, we're able to integrate with the 5G public network. We're able to bring in identity and devices, we're able to bring in solutions for students, embedded laptops. All of these things that you can do much much faster and cheaper if you are able to tap in the 4,000, 5,000 partners and all the applications and all the development and all the models that AWS team did. By being able to bring that efficiency to the edge why reinvent that? And then along with that, there are partners that you, that help do integration. There are development done to make it hardened, to make the data more secure, more isolated. All of these things will contribute to an edge that truly is a carbon copy of the data center. >> So Wayne, it's AWS, Regardless of where the compute, networking and storage physically live, it's AWS. Do you think that the term cloud will sort of drift away from usage? Because if, look, it's all IT, in this case it's AWS and federated IT working together. How, what's your, it's sort of a obscure question about cloud, because cloud is so integrated. >> You Got this thing about cloud, it's just IT. >> I got thing about cloud too, because- >> You and Larry Ellison. >> Because it's no, no, no, I'm, yeah, well actually there's- >> There's a lot of IT that's not cloud, just say that okay. >> Now, a lot of IT that isn't cloud, but I would say- >> But I'll (indistinct) cloud is an IT tool, and you see AWS obviously with the Snow fill in the blank line of products and outpost type stuff. Fair to say that you're, doesn't matter where it is, it could be AWS if it's on the edge, right? >> Well, you know, everybody wants to define the cloud as what it may have been when it started. But if you look at what it was when it started and what it is today, it is different. But the ability to bring the experience, the AWS experience, the services, the operational experience and all the things that Iyad had been talking about from the region all to all the way to, you know, the IoT device, if you would, that entire continuum. And it doesn't matter where you start. Like if you start in region and you need to bring your value to other places because your customers are asking you to do so, we're enabling that experience where you need to bring it. If you started at the edge, and- but you want to build cloud value, you know, whether it's again, cost efficiency, scalability, AI, ML or analytics into those capabilities, you can start at the edge with the same APIs, with the same service, the same capabilities, and you can build that value in right from the get go. You don't build this bifurcation or many separations and try to figure out how do I glue them together? There is no gluing together. So if you think of cloud as being elastic, scalable flexible, where you can drive innovation, it's the same exact model on the continuum. And you can start at either end, it's up to you as a customer. >> And I think if, the key to me is the ecosystem. I mean, if you can do for this industry what you've done for the technology- enterprise technology business from an ecosystem standpoint, you know everybody talks about flywheel, but that gives you like the massive flywheel. I don't know what the ratio is, but it used to be for every dollar spent on a VMware license, $15 is spent in the ecosystem. I've never heard similar ratios in the AWS ecosystem, but it's, I go to reinvent and I'm like, there's some dollars being- >> That's a massive ecosystem. >> (indistinct). >> And then, and another thing I'll add is Jose Maria Alvarez, who's the chairman of Telefonica, said there's three pillars of the future-ready telco, low latency, programmable networks, and he said cloud and edge. So they recognizing cloud and edge, you know, low latency means you got to put the compute and the data, the programmable infrastructure was invented by Amazon. So what's the strategy around the telco edge? >> So, you know, at the end, so those are all great points. And in fact, the programmability of the network was a big theme in the show. It was a huge theme. And if you think about the cloud, what is the cloud? It's a set of APIs against a set of resources that you use in whatever way is appropriate for what you're trying to accomplish. The network, the telco network becomes a resource. And it could be described as a resource. We, I talked about, you know, network as in code, right? It's same infrastructure in code, it's telco infrastructure as code. And that code, that infrastructure, is programmable. So this is really, really important. And in how you build the ecosystem around that is no different than how we built the ecosystem around traditional IT abstractions. In fact, we feel that really the ecosystem is the killer app for 5G. You know, the killer app for 4G, data of sorts, right? We started using data beyond simple SMS messages. So what's the killer app for 5G? It's building this ecosystem, which includes the CSPs, the ISVs, all of the partners that we bring to the table that can drive greater value. It's not just about cost efficiency. You know, you can't save your way to success, right? At some point you need to generate greater value for your customers, which gives you better business outcomes, 'cause you can monetize them, right? The ecosystem is going to allow everybody to monetize 5G. >> 5G is like the dot connector of all that. And then developers come in on top and create new capabilities >> And how different is that than, you know, the original smartphones? >> Yeah, you're right. So what do you guys think of ChatGPT? (indistinct) to Amazon? Amazon turned the data center into an API. It's like we're visioning this world, and I want to ask that technologist, like, where it's turning resources into human language interfaces. You know, when you see that, you play with ChatGPT at all, or I know you guys got your own. >> So I won't speak directly to ChatGPT. >> No, don't speak from- >> But if you think about- >> Generative AI. >> Yeah generative AI is important. And, and we are, and we have been for years, in this space. Now you've been talking to AWS for a long time, and we often don't talk about things we don't have yet. We don't talk about things that we haven't brought to market yet. And so, you know, you'll often hear us talk about something, you know, a year from now where others may have been talking about it three years earlier, right? We will be talking about this space when we feel it's appropriate for our customers and our partners. >> You have talked about it a little bit, Adam Selipsky went on an interview with myself and John Furrier in October said you watch, you know, large language models are going to be enormous and I know you guys have some stuff that you're working on there. >> It's, I'll say it's exciting. >> Yeah, I mean- >> Well proof point is, Siri is an idiot compared to Alexa. (group laughs) So I trust one entity to come up with something smart. >> I have conversations with Alexa and Siri, and I won't judge either one. >> You don't need, you could be objective on that one. I definitely have a preference. >> Are the problems you guys solving in this space, you know, what's unique about 'em? What are they, can we, sort of, take some examples here (indistinct). >> Sure, the main theme is that the enterprise is taking control. They want to have their own networks. They want to focus on specific applications, and they want to build them with a skeleton crew. The one IT person in a warehouse want to be able to do it all. So what's unique about them is that they're now are a lot of automation on robotics, especially in warehousing environment agriculture. There simply aren't enough people in these industries, and that required precision. And so you need all that integration to make it work. People also want to build these networks as they want to control it. They want to figure out how do we actually pick this team and migrate it. Maybe just do the front of the house first. Maybe it's a security team that monitor the building, maybe later on upgrade things that use to open doors and close doors and collect maintenance data. So that ability to pick what you want to do from a new processors is really important. And then you're also seeing a lot of public-private network interconnection. That's probably the undercurrent of this show that haven't been talked about. When people say private networks, they're also talking about something called neutral host, which means I'm going to build my own network, but I want it to work, my Verizon (indistinct) need to work. There's been so much progress, it's not done yet. So much progress about this bring my own network concept, and then make sure that I'm now interoperating with the public network, but it's my domain. I can create air gaps, I can create whatever security and policy around it. That is probably the power of 5G. Now take all of these tiny networks, big networks, put them all in one ecosystem. Call it the Amazon marketplace, call it the Amazon ecosystem, that's 5G. It's going to be tremendous future. >> What does the future look like? We're going to, we just determined we're going to be orchestrating the network through human language, okay? (group laughs) But seriously, what's your vision for the future here? You know, both connectivity and cloud are on on a continuum. It's, they've been on a continuum forever. They're going to continue to be on a continuum. That being said, those continuums are coming together, right? They're coming together to bring greater value to a greater set of customers, and frankly all of us. So, you know, the future is now like, you know, this conference is the future, and if you look at what's going on, it's about the acceleration of the future, right? What we announced this week is really the acceleration of listening to customers for the last handful of years. And, we're going to continue to do that. We're going to continue to bring greater value in the form of solutions. And that's what I want to pick up on from the prior question. It's not about the network, it's not about the cloud, it's about the solutions that we can provide the customers where they are, right? And if they're on their mobile phone or they're in their factory floor, you know, they're looking to accelerate their business. They're looking to accelerate their value. They're looking to create greater safety for their employees. That's what we can do with these technologies. So in fact, when we came out with, you know, our announcement for integrated private wireless, right? It really was about industry solutions. It really isn't about, you know, the cloud or the network. It's about how you can leverage those technologies, that continuum, to deliver you value. >> You know, it's interesting you say that, 'cause again, when we were interviewing Adam Selipsky, everybody, you know, all journalists analysts want to know, how's Adam Selipsky going to be different from Andy Jassy, what's the, what's he going to do to Amazon to change? And he said, listen, the real answer is Amazon has changed. If Andy Jassy were here, we'd be doing all, you know, pretty much the same things. Your point about 17 years ago, the cloud was S3, right, and EC2. Now it's got to evolve to be solutions. 'Cause if that's all you're selling, is the bespoke services, then you know, the future is not as bright as the past has been. And so I think it's key to look for what are those outcomes or solutions that customers require and how you're going to meet 'em. And there's a lot of challenges. >> You continue to build value on the value that you've brought, and you don't lose sight of why that value is important. You carry that value proposition up the stack, but the- what you're delivering, as you said, becomes maybe a bigger or or different. >> And you are getting more solution oriented. I mean, you're not hardcore solutions yet, but we're seeing more and more of that. And that seems to be a trend. We've even seen in the database world, making things easier, connecting things. Not really an abstraction layer, which is sort of antithetical to your philosophy, but it creates a similar outcome in terms of simplicity. Yeah, you're smiling 'cause you guys always have a different angle, you know? >> Yeah, we've had this conversation. >> It's right, it's, Jassy used to say it's okay to be misunderstood. >> That's Right. For a long time. >> Yeah, right, guys, thanks so much for coming to theCUBE. I'm so glad we could make this happen. >> It's always good. Thank you. >> Thank you so much. >> All right, Dave Nicholson, for Lisa Martin, Dave Vellante, John Furrier in the Palo Alto studio. We're here at the Fira, wrapping out MWC23. Keep it right there, thanks for watching. (upbeat music)

(uplifting music) >> Hello, welcome back to theCUBE's coverage of CloudNativeSecurityCon, the inaugural event, in Seattle. I'm John Furrier, host of theCUBE, here in the Palo Alto Studios. We're calling it theCUBE Center. It's kind of like our Sports Center for tech. It's kind of remote coverage. We've been doing this now for a few years. We're going to amp it up this year as more events are remote, and happening all around the world. So, we're going to continue the coverage with this segment focusing on the data stack, entrepreneurial opportunities around all things security, and as, obviously, data's involved. And our next guest is a friend of theCUBE, and CUBE alumni from 2013, entrepreneur himself, turned, now, venture capitalist angel investor, with his own firm, Opher Kahane, Managing Director, Sonoma Ventures. Formerly the founder of Origami, sold to Intuit a few years back. Focusing now on having a lot of fun, angel investing on boards, focusing on data-driven applications, and stacks around that, and all the stuff going on in, really, in the wheelhouse for what's going on around security data. Opher, great to see you. Thanks for coming on. >> My pleasure. Great to be back. It's been a while. >> So you're kind of on Easy Street now. You did the entrepreneurial venture, you've worked hard. We were on together in 2013 when theCUBE just started. XCEL Partners had an event in Stanford, XCEL, and they had all the features there. We interviewed Satya Nadella, who was just a manager at Microsoft at that time, he was there. He's now the CEO of Microsoft. >> Yeah, he was. >> A lot's changed in nine years. But congratulations on your venture you sold, and you got an exit there, and now you're doing a lot of investments. I'd love to get your take, because this is really the biggest change I've seen in the past 12 years, around an inflection point around a lot of converging forces. Data, which, big data, 10 years ago, was a big part of your career, but now it's accelerated, with cloud scale. You're seeing people building scale on top of other clouds, and becoming their own cloud. You're seeing data being a big part of it. Cybersecurity kind of has not really changed much, but it's the most important thing everyone's talking about. So, developers are involved, data's involved, a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities. So I'd love to get your take on how you see the current situation, as it relates to what's gone on in the past five years or so. What's the big story? >> So, a lot of big stories, but I think a lot of it has to do with a promise of making value from data, whether it's for cybersecurity, for Fintech, for DevOps, for RevTech startups and companies. There's a lot of challenges in actually driving and monetizing the value from data with velocity. Historically, the challenge has been more around, "How do I store data at massive scale?" And then you had the big data infrastructure company, like Cloudera, and MapR, and others, deal with it from a scale perspective, from a storage perspective. Then you had a whole layer of companies that evolved to deal with, "How do I index massive scales of data, for quick querying, and federated access, et cetera?" But now that a lot of those underlying problems, if you will, have been solved, to a certain extent, although they're always being stretched, given the scale of data, and its utility is becoming more and more massive, in particular with AI use cases being very prominent right now, the next level is how to actually make value from the data. How do I manage the full lifecycle of data in complex environments, with complex organizations, complex use cases? And having seen this from the inside, with Origami Logic, as we dealt with a lot of large corporations, and post-acquisition by Intuit, and a lot of the startups I'm involved with, it's clear that we're now onto that next step. And you have fundamental new paradigms, such as data mesh, that attempt to address that complexity, and responsibly scaling access, and democratizing access in the value monetization from data, across large organizations. You have a slew of startups that are evolving to help the entire lifecycle of data, from the data engineering side of it, to the data analytics side of it, to the AI use cases side of it. And it feels like the early days, to a certain extent, of the revolution that we've seen in transition from traditional databases, to data warehouses, to cloud-based data processing, and big data. It feels like we're at the genesis of that next wave. And it's super, super exciting, for me at least, as someone who's sitting more in the coach seat, rather than being on the pitch, and building startups, helping folks as they go through those motions. >> So that's awesome. I want to get into some of these data infrastructure dynamics you mentioned, but before that, talk to the audience around what you're working on now. You've been a successful entrepreneur, you're focused on angel investing, so, super-early seed stage. What kind of deals are you looking at? What's interesting to you? What is Sonoma Ventures looking for, and what are some of the entrepreneurial dynamics that you're seeing right now, from a startup standpoint? >> Cool, so, at a macro level, this is a little bit of background of my history, because it shapes very heavily what it is that I'm looking at. So, I've been very fortunate with entrepreneurial career. I founded three startups. All three of them are successful. Final two were sold, the first one merged and went public. And my third career has been about data, moving data, passing data, processing data, generating insights from it. And, at this phase, I wanted to really evolve from just going and building startup number four, from going through the same motions again. A 10 year adventure, I'm a little bit too old for that, I guess. But the next best thing is to sit from a point whereby I can be more elevated in where I'm dealing with, and broaden the variety of startups I'm focused on, rather than just do your own thing, and just go very, very deep into it. Now, what specifically am I focused on at Sonoma Ventures? So, basically, looking at what I refer to as a data-driven application stack. Anything from the low-level data infrastructure and cloud infrastructure, that helps any persona in the data universe maximize value for data, from their particular point of view, for their particular role, whether it's data analysts, data scientists, data engineers, cloud engineers, DevOps folks, et cetera. All the way up to the application layer, in applications that are very data-heavy. And what are very typical data-heavy applications? FinTech, cyber, Web3, revenue technologies, and product and DevOps. So these are the areas we're focused on. I have almost 23 or 24 startups in the portfolio that span all these different areas. And this is in terms of the aperture. Now, typically, focus on pre-seed, seed. Sometimes a little bit later stage, but this is the primary focus. And it's really about partnering with entrepreneurs, and helping them make, if you will, original mistakes, avoid the mistakes I made. >> Yeah. >> And take it to the next level, whatever the milestone they're driving with. So I'm very, very hands-on with many of those startups. Now, what is it that's happening right now, initially, and why is it so exciting? So, on one hand, you have this scaling of data and its complexity, yet lagging value creation from it, across those different personas we've touched on. So that's one fundamental opportunity which is secular. The other one, which is more a cyclic situation, is the fact that we're going through a down cycle in tech, as is very evident in the public markets, and everything we're hearing about funding going slower and lower, terms shifting more into the hands of typical VCs versus entrepreneur-friendly market, and so on and so forth. And a very significant amount of layoffs. Now, when you combine these two trends together, you're observing a very interesting thing, that a lot of folks, really bright folks, who have sold a startup to a company, or have been in the guts of the large startup, or a large corporation, have, hands-on, experienced all those challenges we've spoken about earlier, in turf, maximizing value from data, irrespective of their role, in a specific angle, or vantage point they have on those challenges. So, for many of them, it's an opportunity to, "Now, let me now start a startup. I've been laid off, maybe, or my company's stock isn't doing as well as it used to, as a large corporation. Now I have an opportunity to actually go and take my entrepreneurial passion, and apply it to a product and experience as part of this larger company." >> Yeah. >> And you see a slew of folks who are emerging with these great ideas. So it's a very, very exciting period of time to innovate. >> It's interesting, a lot of people look at, I mean, I look at Snowflake as an example of a company that refactored data warehouses. They just basically took data warehouse, and put it on the cloud, and called it a data cloud. That, to me, was compelling. They didn't pay any CapEx. They rode Amazon's wave there. So, a similar thing going on with data. You mentioned this, and I see it as an enabling opportunity. So whether it's cybersecurity, FinTech, whatever vertical, you have an enablement. Now, you mentioned data infrastructure. It's a super exciting area, as there's so many stacks emerging. We got an analytics stack, there's real-time stacks, there's data lakes, AI stack, foundational models. So, you're seeing an explosion of stacks, different tools probably will emerge. So, how do you look at that, as a seasoned entrepreneur, now investor? Is that a good thing? Is that just more of the market? 'Cause it just seems like more and more kind of decomposed stacks targeted at use cases seems to be a trend. >> Yeah. >> And how do you vet that, is it? >> So it's a great observation, and if you take a step back and look at the evolution of technology over the last 30 years, maybe longer, you always see these cycles of expansion, fragmentation, contraction, expansion, contraction. Go decentralize, go centralize, go decentralize, go centralize, as manifested in different types of technology paradigms. From client server, to storage, to microservices, to et cetera, et cetera. So I think we're going through another big bang, to a certain extent, whereby end up with more specialized data stacks for specific use cases, as you need performance, the data models, the tooling to best adapt to the particular task at hand, and the particular personas at hand. As the needs of the data analysts are quite different from the needs of an NL engineer, it's quite different from the needs of the data engineer. And what happens is, when you end up with these siloed stacks, you end up with new fragmentation, and new gaps that need to be filled with a new layer of innovation. And I suspect that, in part, that's what we're seeing right now, in terms of the next wave of data innovation. Whether it's in a service of FinTech use cases, or cyber use cases, or other, is a set of tools that end up having to try and stitch together those elements and bridge between them. So I see that as a fantastic gap to innovate around. I see, also, a fundamental need in creating a common data language, and common data management processes and governance across those different personas, because ultimately, the same underlying data these folks need, albeit in different mediums, different access models, different velocities, et cetera, the subject matter, if you will, the underlying raw data, and some of the taxonomies right on top of it, do need to be consistent. So, once again, a great opportunity to innovate, whether it's about semantic layers, whether it's about data mesh, whether it's about CICD tools for data engineers, and so on and so forth. >> I got to ask you, first of all, I see you have a friend you brought into the interview. You have a dog in the background who made a little cameo appearance. And that's awesome. Sitting right next to you, making sure everything's going well. On the AI thing, 'cause I think that's the hot trend here. >> Yeah. >> You're starting to see, that ChatGPT's got everyone excited, because it's kind of that first time you see kind of next-gen functionality, large-language models, where you can bring data in, and it integrates well. So, to me, I think, connecting the dots, this kind of speaks to the beginning of what will be a trend of really blending of data stacks together, or blending of models. And so, as more data modeling emerges, you start to have this AI stack kind of situation, where you have things out there that you can compose. It's almost very developer-friendly, conceptually. This is kind of new, but kind of the same concept's been working on with Google and others. How do you see this emerging, as an investor? What are some of the things that you're excited about, around the ChatGPT kind of things that's happening? 'Cause it brings it mainstream. Again, a million downloads, fastest applications get a million downloads, even among all the successes. So it's obviously hit a nerve. People are talking about it. What's your take on that? >> Yeah, so, I think that's a great point, and clearly, it feels like an iPhone moment, right, to the industry, in this case, AI, and lots of applications. And I think there's, at a high level, probably three different layers of innovation. One is on top of those platforms. What use cases can one bring to the table that would drive on top of a ChatGPT-like service? Whereby, the startup, the company, can bring some unique datasets to infuse and add value on top of it, by custom-focusing it and purpose-building it for a particular use case or particular vertical. Whether it's applying it to customer service, in a particular vertical, applying it to, I don't know, marketing content creation, and so on and so forth. That's one category. And I do know that, as one of my startups is in Y Combinator, this season, winter '23, they're saying that a very large chunk of the YC companies in this cycle are about GPT use cases. So we'll see a flurry of that. The next layer, the one below that, is those who actually provide those platforms, whether it's ChatGPT, whatever will emerge from the partnership with Microsoft, and any competitive players that emerge from other startups, or from the big cloud providers, whether it's Facebook, if they ever get into this, and Google, which clearly will, as they need to, to survive around search. The third layer is the enabling layer. As you're going to have more and more of those different large-language models and use case running on top of it, the underlying layers, all the way down to cloud infrastructure, the data infrastructure, and the entire set of tools and systems, that take raw data, and massage it into useful, labeled, contextualized features and data to feed the models, the AI models, whether it's during training, or during inference stages, in production. Personally, my focus is more on the infrastructure than on the application use cases. And I believe that there's going to be a massive amount of innovation opportunity around that, to reach cost-effective, quality, fair models that are deployed easily and maintained easily, or at least with as little pain as possible, at scale. So there are startups that are dealing with it, in various areas. Some are about focusing on labeling automation, some about fairness, about, speaking about cyber, protecting models from threats through data and other issues with it, and so on and so forth. And I believe that this will be, too, a big driver for massive innovation, the infrastructure layer. >> Awesome, and I love how you mentioned the iPhone moment. I call it the browser moment, 'cause it felt that way for me, personally. >> Yep. >> But I think, from a business model standpoint, there is that iPhone shift. It's not the BlackBerry. It's a whole 'nother thing. And I like that. But I do have to ask you, because this is interesting. You mentioned iPhone. iPhone's mostly proprietary. So, in these machine learning foundational models, >> Yeah. >> you're starting to see proprietary hardware, bolt-on, acceleration, bundled together, for faster uptake. And now you got open source emerging, as two things. It's almost iPhone-Android situation happening. >> Yeah. >> So what's your view on that? Because there's pros and cons for either one. You're seeing a lot of these machine learning laws are very proprietary, but they work, and do you care, right? >> Yeah. >> And then you got open source, which is like, "Okay, let's get some upsource code, and let people verify it, and then build with that." Is it a balance? >> Yes, I think- >> Is it mutually exclusive? What's your view? >> I think it's going to be, markets will drive the proportion of both, and I think, for a certain use case, you'll end up with more proprietary offerings. With certain use cases, I guess the fundamental infrastructure for ChatGPT-like, let's say, large-language models and all the use cases running on top of it, that's likely going to be more platform-oriented and open source, and will allow innovation. Think of it as the equivalent of iPhone apps or Android apps running on top of those platforms, as in AI apps. So we'll have a lot of that. Now, when you start going a little bit more into the guts, the lower layers, then it's clear that, for performance reasons, in particular, for certain use cases, we'll end up with more proprietary offerings, whether it's advanced silicon, such as some of the silicon that emerged from entrepreneurs who have left Google, around TensorFlow, and all the silicon that powers that. You'll see a lot of innovation in that area as well. It hopefully intends to improve the cost efficiency of running large AI-oriented workloads, both in inference and in learning stages. >> I got to ask you, because this has come up a lot around Azure and Microsoft. Microsoft, pretty good move getting into the ChatGPT >> Yep. >> and the open AI, because I was talking to someone who's a hardcore Amazon developer, and they said, they swore they would never use Azure, right? One of those types. And they're spinning up Azure servers to get access to the API. So, the developers are flocking, as you mentioned. The YC class is all doing large data things, because you can now program with data, which is amazing, which is amazing. So, what's your take on, I know you got to be kind of neutral 'cause you're an investor, but you got, Amazon has to respond, Google, essentially, did all the work, so they have to have a solution. So, I'm expecting Google to have something very compelling, but Microsoft, right now, is going to just, might run the table on developers, this new wave of data developers. What's your take on the cloud responses to this? What's Amazon, what do you think AWS is going to do? What should Google be doing? What's your take? >> So, each of them is coming from a slightly different angle, of course. I'll say, Google, I think, has massive assets in the AI space, and their underlying cloud platform, I think, has been designed to support such complicated workloads, but they have yet to go as far as opening it up the same way ChatGPT is now in that Microsoft partnership, and Azure. Good question regarding Amazon. AWS has had a significant investment in AI-related infrastructure. Seeing it through my startups, through other lens as well. How will they respond to that higher layer, above and beyond the low level, if you will, AI-enabling apparatuses? How do they elevate to at least one or two layers above, and get to the same ChatGPT layer, good question. Is there an acquisition that will make sense for them to accelerate it, maybe. Is there an in-house development that they can reapply from a different domain towards that, possibly. But I do suspect we'll end up with acquisitions as the arms race around the next level of cloud wars emerges, and it's going to be no longer just about the basic tooling for basic cloud-based applications, and the infrastructure, and the cost management, but rather, faster time to deliver AI in data-heavy applications. Once again, each one of those cloud suppliers, their vendor is coming with different assets, and different pros and cons. All of them will need to just elevate the level of the fight, if you will, in this case, to the AI layer. >> It's going to be very interesting, the different stacks on the data infrastructure, like I mentioned, analytics, data lake, AI, all happening. It's going to be interesting to see how this turns into this AI cloud, like data clouds, data operating systems. So, super fascinating area. Opher, thank you for coming on and sharing your expertise with us. Great to see you, and congratulations on the work. I'll give you the final word here. Give a plugin for what you're looking for for startup seats, pre-seeds. What's the kind of profile that gets your attention, from a seed, pre-seed candidate or entrepreneur? >> Cool, first of all, it's my pleasure. Enjoy our chats, as always. Hopefully the next one's not going to be in nine years. As to what I'm looking for, ideally, smart data entrepreneurs, who have come from a particular domain problem, or problem domain, that they understand, they felt it in their own 10 fingers, or millions of neurons in their brains, and they figured out a way to solve it. Whether it's a data infrastructure play, a cloud infrastructure play, or a very, very smart application that takes advantage of data at scale. These are the things I'm looking for. >> One final, final question I have to ask you, because you're a seasoned entrepreneur, and now coach. What's different about the current entrepreneurial environment right now, vis-a-vis, the past decade? What's new? Is it different, highly accelerated? What advice do you give entrepreneurs out there who are putting together their plan? Obviously, a global resource pool now of engineering. It might not be yesterday's formula for success to putting a venture together to get to that product-market fit. What's new and different, and what's your advice to the folks out there about what's different about the current environment for being an entrepreneur? >> Fantastic, so I think it's a great question. So I think there's a few axes of difference, compared to, let's say, five years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years ago. First and foremost, given the amount of infrastructure out there, the amount of open-source technologies, amount of developer toolkits and frameworks, trying to develop an application, at least at the application layer, is much faster than ever. So, it's faster and cheaper, to the most part, unless you're building very fundamental, core, deep tech, where you still have a big technology challenge to deal with. And absent that, the challenge shifts more to how do you manage my resources, to product-market fit, how are you integrating the GTM lens, the go-to-market lens, as early as possible in the product-market fit cycle, such that you reach from pre-seed to seed, from seed to A, from A to B, with an optimal amount of velocity, and a minimal amount of resources. One big difference, specifically as of, let's say, beginning of this year, late last year, is that money is no longer free for entrepreneurs, which means that you need to operate and build startup in an environment with a lot more constraints. And in my mind, some of the best startups that have ever been built, and some of the big market-changing, generational-changing, if you will, technology startups, in their respective industry verticals, have actually emerged from these times. And these tend to be the smartest, best startups that emerge because they operate with a lot less money. Money is not as available for them, which means that they need to make tough decisions, and make verticals every day. What you don't need to do, you can kick the cow down the road. When you have plenty of money, and it cushions for a lot of mistakes, you don't have that cushion. And hopefully we'll end up with companies with a more agile, more, if you will, resilience, and better cultures in making those tough decisions that startups need to make every day. Which is why I'm super, super excited to see the next batch of amazing unicorns, true unicorns, not just valuation, market rising with the water type unicorns that emerged from this particular era, which we're in the beginning of. And very much enjoy working with entrepreneurs during this difficult time, the times we're in. >> The next 24 months will be the next wave, like you said, best time to do a company. Remember, Airbnb's pitch was, "We'll rent cots in apartments, and sell cereal." Boy, a lot of people passed on that deal, in that last down market, that turned out to be a game-changer. So the crazy ideas might not be that bad. So it's all about the entrepreneurs, and >> 100%. >> this is a big wave, and it's certainly happening. Opher, thank you for sharing. Obviously, data is going to change all the markets. Refactoring, security, FinTech, user experience, applications are going to be changed by data, data operating system. Thanks for coming on, and thanks for sharing. Appreciate it. >> My pleasure. Have a good one. >> Okay, more coverage for the CloudNativeSecurityCon inaugural event. Data will be the key for cybersecurity. theCUBE's coverage continues after this break. (uplifting music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> OpenAI The company, and ChatGPT have taken the world by storm. Microsoft reportedly is investing an additional 10 billion dollars into the company. But in our view, while the hype around ChatGPT is justified, we don't believe OpenAI will lock up the market with its first mover advantage. Rather, we believe that success in this market will be directly proportional to the quality and quantity of data that a technology company has at its disposal, and the compute power that it could deploy to run its system. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we unpack the excitement around ChatGPT, and debate the premise that the company's early entry into the space may not confer winner take all advantage to OpenAI. And to do so, we welcome CUBE collaborator, alum, Sarbjeet Johal, (chuckles) and John Furrier, co-host of the Cube. Great to see you Sarbjeet, John. Really appreciate you guys coming to the program. >> Great to be on. >> Okay, so what is ChatGPT? Well, actually we asked ChatGPT, what is ChatGPT? So here's what it said. ChatGPT is a state-of-the-art language model developed by OpenAI that can generate human-like text. It could be fine tuned for a variety of language tasks, such as conversation, summarization, and language translation. So I asked it, give it to me in 50 words or less. How did it do? Anything to add? >> Yeah, think it did good. It's large language model, like previous models, but it started applying the transformers sort of mechanism to focus on what prompt you have given it to itself. And then also the what answer it gave you in the first, sort of, one sentence or two sentences, and then introspect on itself, like what I have already said to you. And so just work on that. So it it's self sort of focus if you will. It does, the transformers help the large language models to do that. >> So to your point, it's a large language model, and GPT stands for generative pre-trained transformer. >> And if you put the definition back up there again, if you put it back up on the screen, let's see it back up. Okay, it actually missed the large, word large. So one of the problems with ChatGPT, it's not always accurate. It's actually a large language model, and it says state of the art language model. And if you look at Google, Google has dominated AI for many times and they're well known as being the best at this. And apparently Google has their own large language model, LLM, in play and have been holding it back to release because of backlash on the accuracy. Like just in that example you showed is a great point. They got almost right, but they missed the key word. >> You know what's funny about that John, is I had previously asked it in my prompt to give me it in less than a hundred words, and it was too long, I said I was too long for Breaking Analysis, and there it went into the fact that it's a large language model. So it largely, it gave me a really different answer the, for both times. So, but it's still pretty amazing for those of you who haven't played with it yet. And one of the best examples that I saw was Ben Charrington from This Week In ML AI podcast. And I stumbled on this thanks to Brian Gracely, who was listening to one of his Cloudcasts. Basically what Ben did is he took, he prompted ChatGPT to interview ChatGPT, and he simply gave the system the prompts, and then he ran the questions and answers into this avatar builder and sped it up 2X so it didn't sound like a machine. And voila, it was amazing. So John is ChatGPT going to take over as a cube host? >> Well, I was thinking, we get the questions in advance sometimes from PR people. We should actually just plug it in ChatGPT, add it to our notes, and saying, "Is this good enough for you? Let's ask the real question." So I think, you know, I think there's a lot of heavy lifting that gets done. I think the ChatGPT is a phenomenal revolution. I think it highlights the use case. Like that example we showed earlier. It gets most of it right. So it's directionally correct and it feels like it's an answer, but it's not a hundred percent accurate. And I think that's where people are seeing value in it. Writing marketing, copy, brainstorming, guest list, gift list for somebody. Write me some lyrics to a song. Give me a thesis about healthcare policy in the United States. It'll do a bang up job, and then you got to go in and you can massage it. So we're going to do three quarters of the work. That's why plagiarism and schools are kind of freaking out. And that's why Microsoft put 10 billion in, because why wouldn't this be a feature of Word, or the OS to help it do stuff on behalf of the user. So linguistically it's a beautiful thing. You can input a string and get a good answer. It's not a search result. >> And we're going to get your take on on Microsoft and, but it kind of levels the playing- but ChatGPT writes better than I do, Sarbjeet, and I know you have some good examples too. You mentioned the Reed Hastings example. >> Yeah, I was listening to Reed Hastings fireside chat with ChatGPT, and the answers were coming as sort of voice, in the voice format. And it was amazing what, he was having very sort of philosophy kind of talk with the ChatGPT, the longer sentences, like he was going on, like, just like we are talking, he was talking for like almost two minutes and then ChatGPT was answering. It was not one sentence question, and then a lot of answers from ChatGPT and yeah, you're right. I, this is our ability. I've been thinking deep about this since yesterday, we talked about, like, we want to do this segment. The data is fed into the data model. It can be the current data as well, but I think that, like, models like ChatGPT, other companies will have those too. They can, they're democratizing the intelligence, but they're not creating intelligence yet, definitely yet I can say that. They will give you all the finite answers. Like, okay, how do you do this for loop in Java, versus, you know, C sharp, and as a programmer you can do that, in, but they can't tell you that, how to write a new algorithm or write a new search algorithm for you. They cannot create a secretive code for you to- >> Not yet. >> Have competitive advantage. >> Not yet, not yet. >> but you- >> Can Google do that today? >> No one really can. The reasoning side of the data is, we talked about at our Supercloud event, with Zhamak Dehghani who's was CEO of, now of Nextdata. This next wave of data intelligence is going to come from entrepreneurs that are probably cross discipline, computer science and some other discipline. But they're going to be new things, for example, data, metadata, and data. It's hard to do reasoning like a human being, so that needs more data to train itself. So I think the first gen of this training module for the large language model they have is a corpus of text. Lot of that's why blog posts are, but the facts are wrong and sometimes out of context, because that contextual reasoning takes time, it takes intelligence. So machines need to become intelligent, and so therefore they need to be trained. So you're going to start to see, I think, a lot of acceleration on training the data sets. And again, it's only as good as the data you can get. And again, proprietary data sets will be a huge winner. Anyone who's got a large corpus of content, proprietary content like theCUBE or SiliconANGLE as a publisher will benefit from this. Large FinTech companies, anyone with large proprietary data will probably be a big winner on this generative AI wave, because it just, it will eat that up, and turn that back into something better. So I think there's going to be a lot of interesting things to look at here. And certainly productivity's going to be off the charts for vanilla and the internet is going to get swarmed with vanilla content. So if you're in the content business, and you're an original content producer of any kind, you're going to be not vanilla, so you're going to be better. So I think there's so much at play Dave (indistinct). >> I think the playing field has been risen, so we- >> Risen and leveled? >> Yeah, and leveled to certain extent. So it's now like that few people as consumers, as consumers of AI, we will have a advantage and others cannot have that advantage. So it will be democratized. That's, I'm sure about that. But if you take the example of calculator, when the calculator came in, and a lot of people are, "Oh, people can't do math anymore because calculator is there." right? So it's a similar sort of moment, just like a calculator for the next level. But, again- >> I see it more like open source, Sarbjeet, because like if you think about what ChatGPT's doing, you do a query and it comes from somewhere the value of a post from ChatGPT is just a reuse of AI. The original content accent will be come from a human. So if I lay out a paragraph from ChatGPT, did some heavy lifting on some facts, I check the facts, save me about maybe- >> Yeah, it's productive. >> An hour writing, and then I write a killer two, three sentences of, like, sharp original thinking or critical analysis. I then took that body of work, open source content, and then laid something on top of it. >> And Sarbjeet's example is a good one, because like if the calculator kids don't do math as well anymore, the slide rule, remember we had slide rules as kids, remember we first started using Waze, you know, we were this minority and you had an advantage over other drivers. Now Waze is like, you know, social traffic, you know, navigation, everybody had, you know- >> All the back roads are crowded. >> They're car crowded. (group laughs) Exactly. All right, let's, let's move on. What about this notion that futurist Ray Amara put forth and really Amara's Law that we're showing here, it's, the law is we, you know, "We tend to overestimate the effect of technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run." Is that the case, do you think, with ChatGPT? What do you think Sarbjeet? >> I think that's true actually. There's a lot of, >> We don't debate this. >> There's a lot of awe, like when people see the results from ChatGPT, they say what, what the heck? Like, it can do this? But then if you use it more and more and more, and I ask the set of similar question, not the same question, and it gives you like same answer. It's like reading from the same bucket of text in, the interior read (indistinct) where the ChatGPT, you will see that in some couple of segments. It's very, it sounds so boring that the ChatGPT is coming out the same two sentences every time. So it is kind of good, but it's not as good as people think it is right now. But we will have, go through this, you know, hype sort of cycle and get realistic with it. And then in the long term, I think it's a great thing in the short term, it's not something which will (indistinct) >> What's your counter point? You're saying it's not. >> I, no I think the question was, it's hyped up in the short term and not it's underestimated long term. That's what I think what he said, quote. >> Yes, yeah. That's what he said. >> Okay, I think that's wrong with this, because this is a unique, ChatGPT is a unique kind of impact and it's very generational. People have been comparing it, I have been comparing to the internet, like the web, web browser Mosaic and Netscape, right, Navigator. I mean, I clearly still remember the days seeing Navigator for the first time, wow. And there weren't not many sites you could go to, everyone typed in, you know, cars.com, you know. >> That (indistinct) wasn't that overestimated, the overhyped at the beginning and underestimated. >> No, it was, it was underestimated long run, people thought. >> But that Amara's law. >> That's what is. >> No, they said overestimated? >> Overestimated near term underestimated- overhyped near term, underestimated long term. I got, right I mean? >> Well, I, yeah okay, so I would then agree, okay then- >> We were off the charts about the internet in the early days, and it actually exceeded our expectations. >> Well there were people who were, like, poo-pooing it early on. So when the browser came out, people were like, "Oh, the web's a toy for kids." I mean, in 1995 the web was a joke, right? So '96, you had online populations growing, so you had structural changes going on around the browser, internet population. And then that replaced other things, direct mail, other business activities that were once analog then went to the web, kind of read only as you, as we always talk about. So I think that's a moment where the hype long term, the smart money, and the smart industry experts all get the long term. And in this case, there's more poo-pooing in the short term. "Ah, it's not a big deal, it's just AI." I've heard many people poo-pooing ChatGPT, and a lot of smart people saying, "No this is next gen, this is different and it's only going to get better." So I think people are estimating a big long game on this one. >> So you're saying it's bifurcated. There's those who say- >> Yes. >> Okay, all right, let's get to the heart of the premise, and possibly the debate for today's episode. Will OpenAI's early entry into the market confer sustainable competitive advantage for the company. And if you look at the history of tech, the technology industry, it's kind of littered with first mover failures. Altair, IBM, Tandy, Commodore, they and Apple even, they were really early in the PC game. They took a backseat to Dell who came in the scene years later with a better business model. Netscape, you were just talking about, was all the rage in Silicon Valley, with the first browser, drove up all the housing prices out here. AltaVista was the first search engine to really, you know, index full text. >> Owned by Dell, I mean DEC. >> Owned by Digital. >> Yeah, Digital Equipment >> Compaq bought it. And of course as an aside, Digital, they wanted to showcase their hardware, right? Their super computer stuff. And then so Friendster and MySpace, they came before Facebook. The iPhone certainly wasn't the first mobile device. So lots of failed examples, but there are some recent successes like AWS and cloud. >> You could say smartphone. So I mean. >> Well I know, and you can, we can parse this so we'll debate it. Now Twitter, you could argue, had first mover advantage. You kind of gave me that one John. Bitcoin and crypto clearly had first mover advantage, and sustaining that. Guys, will OpenAI make it to the list on the right with ChatGPT, what do you think? >> I think categorically as a company, it probably won't, but as a category, I think what they're doing will, so OpenAI as a company, they get funding, there's power dynamics involved. Microsoft put a billion dollars in early on, then they just pony it up. Now they're reporting 10 billion more. So, like, if the browsers, Microsoft had competitive advantage over Netscape, and used monopoly power, and convicted by the Department of Justice for killing Netscape with their monopoly, Netscape should have had won that battle, but Microsoft killed it. In this case, Microsoft's not killing it, they're buying into it. So I think the embrace extend Microsoft power here makes OpenAI vulnerable for that one vendor solution. So the AI as a company might not make the list, but the category of what this is, large language model AI, is probably will be on the right hand side. >> Okay, we're going to come back to the government intervention and maybe do some comparisons, but what are your thoughts on this premise here? That, it will basically set- put forth the premise that it, that ChatGPT, its early entry into the market will not confer competitive advantage to >> For OpenAI. >> To Open- Yeah, do you agree with that? >> I agree with that actually. It, because Google has been at it, and they have been holding back, as John said because of the scrutiny from the Fed, right, so- >> And privacy too. >> And the privacy and the accuracy as well. But I think Sam Altman and the company on those guys, right? They have put this in a hasty way out there, you know, because it makes mistakes, and there are a lot of questions around the, sort of, where the content is coming from. You saw that as your example, it just stole the content, and without your permission, you know? >> Yeah. So as quick this aside- >> And it codes on people's behalf and the, those codes are wrong. So there's a lot of, sort of, false information it's putting out there. So it's a very vulnerable thing to do what Sam Altman- >> So even though it'll get better, others will compete. >> So look, just side note, a term which Reid Hoffman used a little bit. Like he said, it's experimental launch, like, you know, it's- >> It's pretty damn good. >> It is clever because according to Sam- >> It's more than clever. It's good. >> It's awesome, if you haven't used it. I mean you write- you read what it writes and you go, "This thing writes so well, it writes so much better than you." >> The human emotion drives that too. I think that's a big thing. But- >> I Want to add one more- >> Make your last point. >> Last one. Okay. So, but he's still holding back. He's conducting quite a few interviews. If you want to get the gist of it, there's an interview with StrictlyVC interview from yesterday with Sam Altman. Listen to that one it's an eye opening what they want- where they want to take it. But my last one I want to make it on this point is that Satya Nadella yesterday did an interview with Wall Street Journal. I think he was doing- >> You were not impressed. >> I was not impressed because he was pushing it too much. So Sam Altman's holding back so there's less backlash. >> Got 10 billion reasons to push. >> I think he's almost- >> Microsoft just laid off 10000 people. Hey ChatGPT, find me a job. You know like. (group laughs) >> He's overselling it to an extent that I think it will backfire on Microsoft. And he's over promising a lot of stuff right now, I think. I don't know why he's very jittery about all these things. And he did the same thing during Ignite as well. So he said, "Oh, this AI will write code for you and this and that." Like you called him out- >> The hyperbole- >> During your- >> from Satya Nadella, he's got a lot of hyperbole. (group talks over each other) >> All right, Let's, go ahead. >> Well, can I weigh in on the whole- >> Yeah, sure. >> Microsoft thing on whether OpenAI, here's the take on this. I think it's more like the browser moment to me, because I could relate to that experience with ChatG, personally, emotionally, when I saw that, and I remember vividly- >> You mean that aha moment (indistinct). >> Like this is obviously the future. Anything else in the old world is dead, website's going to be everywhere. It was just instant dot connection for me. And a lot of other smart people who saw this. Lot of people by the way, didn't see it. Someone said the web's a toy. At the company I was worked for at the time, Hewlett Packard, they like, they could have been in, they had invented HTML, and so like all this stuff was, like, they just passed, the web was just being passed over. But at that time, the browser got better, more websites came on board. So the structural advantage there was online web usage was growing, online user population. So that was growing exponentially with the rise of the Netscape browser. So OpenAI could stay on the right side of your list as durable, if they leverage the category that they're creating, can get the scale. And if they can get the scale, just like Twitter, that failed so many times that they still hung around. So it was a product that was always successful, right? So I mean, it should have- >> You're right, it was terrible, we kept coming back. >> The fail whale, but it still grew. So OpenAI has that moment. They could do it if Microsoft doesn't meddle too much with too much power as a vendor. They could be the Netscape Navigator, without the anti-competitive behavior of somebody else. So to me, they have the pole position. So they have an opportunity. So if not, if they don't execute, then there's opportunity. There's not a lot of barriers to entry, vis-a-vis say the CapEx of say a cloud company like AWS. You can't replicate that, Many have tried, but I think you can replicate OpenAI. >> And we're going to talk about that. Okay, so real quick, I want to bring in some ETR data. This isn't an ETR heavy segment, only because this so new, you know, they haven't coverage yet, but they do cover AI. So basically what we're seeing here is a slide on the vertical axis's net score, which is a measure of spending momentum, and in the horizontal axis's is presence in the dataset. Think of it as, like, market presence. And in the insert right there, you can see how the dots are plotted, the two columns. And so, but the key point here that we want to make, there's a bunch of companies on the left, is he like, you know, DataRobot and C3 AI and some others, but the big whales, Google, AWS, Microsoft, are really dominant in this market. So that's really the key takeaway that, can we- >> I notice IBM is way low. >> Yeah, IBM's low, and actually bring that back up and you, but then you see Oracle who actually is injecting. So I guess that's the other point is, you're not necessarily going to go buy AI, and you know, build your own AI, you're going to, it's going to be there and, it, Salesforce is going to embed it into its platform, the SaaS companies, and you're going to purchase AI. You're not necessarily going to build it. But some companies obviously are. >> I mean to quote IBM's general manager Rob Thomas, "You can't have AI with IA." information architecture and David Flynn- >> You can't Have AI without IA >> without, you can't have AI without IA. You can't have, if you have an Information Architecture, you then can power AI. Yesterday David Flynn, with Hammersmith, was on our Supercloud. He was pointing out that the relationship of storage, where you store things, also impacts the data and stressablity, and Zhamak from Nextdata, she was pointing out that same thing. So the data problem factors into all this too, Dave. >> So you got the big cloud and internet giants, they're all poised to go after this opportunity. Microsoft is investing up to 10 billion. Google's code red, which was, you know, the headline in the New York Times. Of course Apple is there and several alternatives in the market today. Guys like Chinchilla, Bloom, and there's a company Jasper and several others, and then Lena Khan looms large and the government's around the world, EU, US, China, all taking notice before the market really is coalesced around a single player. You know, John, you mentioned Netscape, they kind of really, the US government was way late to that game. It was kind of game over. And Netscape, I remember Barksdale was like, "Eh, we're going to be selling software in the enterprise anyway." and then, pshew, the company just dissipated. So, but it looks like the US government, especially with Lena Khan, they're changing the definition of antitrust and what the cause is to go after people, and they're really much more aggressive. It's only what, two years ago that (indistinct). >> Yeah, the problem I have with the federal oversight is this, they're always like late to the game, and they're slow to catch up. So in other words, they're working on stuff that should have been solved a year and a half, two years ago around some of the social networks hiding behind some of the rules around open web back in the days, and I think- >> But they're like 15 years late to that. >> Yeah, and now they got this new thing on top of it. So like, I just worry about them getting their fingers. >> But there's only two years, you know, OpenAI. >> No, but the thing (indistinct). >> No, they're still fighting other battles. But the problem with government is that they're going to label Big Tech as like a evil thing like Pharma, it's like smoke- >> You know Lena Khan wants to kill Big Tech, there's no question. >> So I think Big Tech is getting a very seriously bad rap. And I think anything that the government does that shades darkness on tech, is politically motivated in most cases. You can almost look at everything, and my 80 20 rule is in play here. 80% of the government activity around tech is bullshit, it's politically motivated, and the 20% is probably relevant, but off the mark and not organized. >> Well market forces have always been the determining factor of success. The governments, you know, have been pretty much failed. I mean you look at IBM's antitrust, that, what did that do? The market ultimately beat them. You look at Microsoft back in the day, right? Windows 95 was peaking, the government came in. But you know, like you said, they missed the web, right, and >> so they were hanging on- >> There's nobody in government >> to Windows. >> that actually knows- >> And so, you, I think you're right. It's market forces that are going to determine this. But Sarbjeet, what do you make of Microsoft's big bet here, you weren't impressed with with Nadella. How do you think, where are they going to apply it? Is this going to be a Hail Mary for Bing, or is it going to be applied elsewhere? What do you think. >> They are saying that they will, sort of, weave this into their products, office products, productivity and also to write code as well, developer productivity as well. That's a big play for them. But coming back to your antitrust sort of comments, right? I believe the, your comment was like, oh, fed was late 10 years or 15 years earlier, but now they're two years. But things are moving very fast now as compared to they used to move. >> So two years is like 10 Years. >> Yeah, two years is like 10 years. Just want to make that point. (Dave laughs) This thing is going like wildfire. Any new tech which comes in that I think they're going against distribution channels. Lina Khan has commented time and again that the marketplace model is that she wants to have some grip on. Cloud marketplaces are a kind of monopolistic kind of way. >> I don't, I don't see this, I don't see a Chat AI. >> You told me it's not Bing, you had an interesting comment. >> No, no. First of all, this is great from Microsoft. If you're Microsoft- >> Why? >> Because Microsoft doesn't have the AI chops that Google has, right? Google is got so much core competency on how they run their search, how they run their backends, their cloud, even though they don't get a lot of cloud market share in the enterprise, they got a kick ass cloud cause they needed one. >> Totally. >> They've invented SRE. I mean Google's development and engineering chops are off the scales, right? Amazon's got some good chops, but Google's got like 10 times more chops than AWS in my opinion. Cloud's a whole different story. Microsoft gets AI, they get a playbook, they get a product they can render into, the not only Bing, productivity software, helping people write papers, PowerPoint, also don't forget the cloud AI can super help. We had this conversation on our Supercloud event, where AI's going to do a lot of the heavy lifting around understanding observability and managing service meshes, to managing microservices, to turning on and off applications, and or maybe writing code in real time. So there's a plethora of use cases for Microsoft to deploy this. combined with their R and D budgets, they can then turbocharge more research, build on it. So I think this gives them a car in the game, Google may have pole position with AI, but this puts Microsoft right in the game, and they already have a lot of stuff going on. But this just, I mean everything gets lifted up. Security, cloud, productivity suite, everything. >> What's under the hood at Google, and why aren't they talking about it? I mean they got to be freaked out about this. No? Or do they have kind of a magic bullet? >> I think they have the, they have the chops definitely. Magic bullet, I don't know where they are, as compared to the ChatGPT 3 or 4 models. Like they, but if you look at the online sort of activity and the videos put out there from Google folks, Google technology folks, that's account you should look at if you are looking there, they have put all these distinctions what ChatGPT 3 has used, they have been talking about for a while as well. So it's not like it's a secret thing that you cannot replicate. As you said earlier, like in the beginning of this segment, that anybody who has more data and the capacity to process that data, which Google has both, I think they will win this. >> Obviously living in Palo Alto where the Google founders are, and Google's headquarters next town over we have- >> We're so close to them. We have inside information on some of the thinking and that hasn't been reported by any outlet yet. And that is, is that, from what I'm hearing from my sources, is Google has it, they don't want to release it for many reasons. One is it might screw up their search monopoly, one, two, they're worried about the accuracy, 'cause Google will get sued. 'Cause a lot of people are jamming on this ChatGPT as, "Oh it does everything for me." when it's clearly not a hundred percent accurate all the time. >> So Lina Kahn is looming, and so Google's like be careful. >> Yeah so Google's just like, this is the third, could be a third rail. >> But the first thing you said is a concern. >> Well no. >> The disruptive (indistinct) >> What they will do is do a Waymo kind of thing, where they spin out a separate company. >> They're doing that. >> The discussions happening, they're going to spin out the separate company and put it over there, and saying, "This is AI, got search over there, don't touch that search, 'cause that's where all the revenue is." (chuckles) >> So, okay, so that's how they deal with the Clay Christensen dilemma. What's the business model here? I mean it's not advertising, right? Is it to charge you for a query? What, how do you make money at this? >> It's a good question, I mean my thinking is, first of all, it's cool to type stuff in and see a paper get written, or write a blog post, or gimme a marketing slogan for this or that or write some code. I think the API side of the business will be critical. And I think Howie Xu, I know you're going to reference some of his comments yesterday on Supercloud, I think this brings a whole 'nother user interface into technology consumption. I think the business model, not yet clear, but it will probably be some sort of either API and developer environment or just a straight up free consumer product, with some sort of freemium backend thing for business. >> And he was saying too, it's natural language is the way in which you're going to interact with these systems. >> I think it's APIs, it's APIs, APIs, APIs, because these people who are cooking up these models, and it takes a lot of compute power to train these and to, for inference as well. Somebody did the analysis on the how many cents a Google search costs to Google, and how many cents the ChatGPT query costs. It's, you know, 100x or something on that. You can take a look at that. >> A 100x on which side? >> You're saying two orders of magnitude more expensive for ChatGPT >> Much more, yeah. >> Than for Google. >> It's very expensive. >> So Google's got the data, they got the infrastructure and they got, you're saying they got the cost (indistinct) >> No actually it's a simple query as well, but they are trying to put together the answers, and they're going through a lot more data versus index data already, you know. >> Let me clarify, you're saying that Google's version of ChatGPT is more efficient? >> No, I'm, I'm saying Google search results. >> Ah, search results. >> What are used to today, but cheaper. >> But that, does that, is that going to confer advantage to Google's large language (indistinct)? >> It will, because there were deep science (indistinct). >> Google, I don't think Google search is doing a large language model on their search, it's keyword search. You know, what's the weather in Santa Cruz? Or how, what's the weather going to be? Or you know, how do I find this? Now they have done a smart job of doing some things with those queries, auto complete, re direct navigation. But it's, it's not entity. It's not like, "Hey, what's Dave Vellante thinking this week in Breaking Analysis?" ChatGPT might get that, because it'll get your Breaking Analysis, it'll synthesize it. There'll be some, maybe some clips. It'll be like, you know, I mean. >> Well I got to tell you, I asked ChatGPT to, like, I said, I'm going to enter a transcript of a discussion I had with Nir Zuk, the CTO of Palo Alto Networks, And I want you to write a 750 word blog. I never input the transcript. It wrote a 750 word blog. It attributed quotes to him, and it just pulled a bunch of stuff that, and said, okay, here it is. It talked about Supercloud, it defined Supercloud. >> It's made, it makes you- >> Wow, But it was a big lie. It was fraudulent, but still, blew me away. >> Again, vanilla content and non accurate content. So we are going to see a surge of misinformation on steroids, but I call it the vanilla content. Wow, that's just so boring, (indistinct). >> There's so many dangers. >> Make your point, cause we got to, almost out of time. >> Okay, so the consumption, like how do you consume this thing. As humans, we are consuming it and we are, like, getting a nicely, like, surprisingly shocked, you know, wow, that's cool. It's going to increase productivity and all that stuff, right? And on the danger side as well, the bad actors can take hold of it and create fake content and we have the fake sort of intelligence, if you go out there. So that's one thing. The second thing is, we are as humans are consuming this as language. Like we read that, we listen to it, whatever format we consume that is, but the ultimate usage of that will be when the machines can take that output from likes of ChatGPT, and do actions based on that. The robots can work, the robot can paint your house, we were talking about, right? Right now we can't do that. >> Data apps. >> So the data has to be ingested by the machines. It has to be digestible by the machines. And the machines cannot digest unorganized data right now, we will get better on the ingestion side as well. So we are getting better. >> Data, reasoning, insights, and action. >> I like that mall, paint my house. >> So, okay- >> By the way, that means drones that'll come in. Spray painting your house. >> Hey, it wasn't too long ago that robots couldn't climb stairs, as I like to point out. Okay, and of course it's no surprise the venture capitalists are lining up to eat at the trough, as I'd like to say. Let's hear, you'd referenced this earlier, John, let's hear what AI expert Howie Xu said at the Supercloud event, about what it takes to clone ChatGPT. Please, play the clip. >> So one of the VCs actually asked me the other day, right? "Hey, how much money do I need to spend, invest to get a, you know, another shot to the openAI sort of the level." You know, I did a (indistinct) >> Line up. >> A hundred million dollar is the order of magnitude that I came up with, right? You know, not a billion, not 10 million, right? So a hundred- >> Guys a hundred million dollars, that's an astoundingly low figure. What do you make of it? >> I was in an interview with, I was interviewing, I think he said hundred million or so, but in the hundreds of millions, not a billion right? >> You were trying to get him up, you were like "Hundreds of millions." >> Well I think, I- >> He's like, eh, not 10, not a billion. >> Well first of all, Howie Xu's an expert machine learning. He's at Zscaler, he's a machine learning AI guy. But he comes from VMware, he's got his technology pedigrees really off the chart. Great friend of theCUBE and kind of like a CUBE analyst for us. And he's smart. He's right. I think the barriers to entry from a dollar standpoint are lower than say the CapEx required to compete with AWS. Clearly, the CapEx spending to build all the tech for the run a cloud. >> And you don't need a huge sales force. >> And in some case apps too, it's the same thing. But I think it's not that hard. >> But am I right about that? You don't need a huge sales force either. It's, what, you know >> If the product's good, it will sell, this is a new era. The better mouse trap will win. This is the new economics in software, right? So- >> Because you look at the amount of money Lacework, and Snyk, Snowflake, Databrooks. Look at the amount of money they've raised. I mean it's like a billion dollars before they get to IPO or more. 'Cause they need promotion, they need go to market. You don't need (indistinct) >> OpenAI's been working on this for multiple five years plus it's, hasn't, wasn't born yesterday. Took a lot of years to get going. And Sam is depositioning all the success, because he's trying to manage expectations, To your point Sarbjeet, earlier. It's like, yeah, he's trying to "Whoa, whoa, settle down everybody, (Dave laughs) it's not that great." because he doesn't want to fall into that, you know, hero and then get taken down, so. >> It may take a 100 million or 150 or 200 million to train the model. But to, for the inference to, yeah to for the inference machine, It will take a lot more, I believe. >> Give it, so imagine, >> Because- >> Go ahead, sorry. >> Go ahead. But because it consumes a lot more compute cycles and it's certain level of storage and everything, right, which they already have. So I think to compute is different. To frame the model is a different cost. But to run the business is different, because I think 100 million can go into just fighting the Fed. >> Well there's a flywheel too. >> Oh that's (indistinct) >> (indistinct) >> We are running the business, right? >> It's an interesting number, but it's also kind of, like, context to it. So here, a hundred million spend it, you get there, but you got to factor in the fact that the ways companies win these days is critical mass scale, hitting a flywheel. If they can keep that flywheel of the value that they got going on and get better, you can almost imagine a marketplace where, hey, we have proprietary data, we're SiliconANGLE in theCUBE. We have proprietary content, CUBE videos, transcripts. Well wouldn't it be great if someone in a marketplace could sell a module for us, right? We buy that, Amazon's thing and things like that. So if they can get a marketplace going where you can apply to data sets that may be proprietary, you can start to see this become bigger. And so I think the key barriers to entry is going to be success. I'll give you an example, Reddit. Reddit is successful and it's hard to copy, not because of the software. >> They built the moat. >> Because you can, buy Reddit open source software and try To compete. >> They built the moat with their community. >> Their community, their scale, their user expectation. Twitter, we referenced earlier, that thing should have gone under the first two years, but there was such a great emotional product. People would tolerate the fail whale. And then, you know, well that was a whole 'nother thing. >> Then a plane landed in (John laughs) the Hudson and it was over. >> I think verticals, a lot of verticals will build applications using these models like for lawyers, for doctors, for scientists, for content creators, for- >> So you'll have many hundreds of millions of dollars investments that are going to be seeping out. If, all right, we got to wrap, if you had to put odds on it that that OpenAI is going to be the leader, maybe not a winner take all leader, but like you look at like Amazon and cloud, they're not winner take all, these aren't necessarily winner take all markets. It's not necessarily a zero sum game, but let's call it winner take most. What odds would you give that open AI 10 years from now will be in that position. >> If I'm 0 to 10 kind of thing? >> Yeah, it's like horse race, 3 to 1, 2 to 1, even money, 10 to 1, 50 to 1. >> Maybe 2 to 1, >> 2 to 1, that's pretty low odds. That's basically saying they're the favorite, they're the front runner. Would you agree with that? >> I'd say 4 to 1. >> Yeah, I was going to say I'm like a 5 to 1, 7 to 1 type of person, 'cause I'm a skeptic with, you know, there's so much competition, but- >> I think they're definitely the leader. I mean you got to say, I mean. >> Oh there's no question. There's no question about it. >> The question is can they execute? >> They're not Friendster, is what you're saying. >> They're not Friendster and they're more like Twitter and Reddit where they have momentum. If they can execute on the product side, and if they don't stumble on that, they will continue to have the lead. >> If they say stay neutral, as Sam is, has been saying, that, hey, Microsoft is one of our partners, if you look at their company model, how they have structured the company, then they're going to pay back to the investors, like Microsoft is the biggest one, up to certain, like by certain number of years, they're going to pay back from all the money they make, and after that, they're going to give the money back to the public, to the, I don't know who they give it to, like non-profit or something. (indistinct) >> Okay, the odds are dropping. (group talks over each other) That's a good point though >> Actually they might have done that to fend off the criticism of this. But it's really interesting to see the model they have adopted. >> The wildcard in all this, My last word on this is that, if there's a developer shift in how developers and data can come together again, we have conferences around the future of data, Supercloud and meshs versus, you know, how the data world, coding with data, how that evolves will also dictate, 'cause a wild card could be a shift in the landscape around how developers are using either machine learning or AI like techniques to code into their apps, so. >> That's fantastic insight. I can't thank you enough for your time, on the heels of Supercloud 2, really appreciate it. All right, thanks to John and Sarbjeet for the outstanding conversation today. Special thanks to the Palo Alto studio team. My goodness, Anderson, this great backdrop. You guys got it all out here, I'm jealous. And Noah, really appreciate it, Chuck, Andrew Frick and Cameron, Andrew Frick switching, Cameron on the video lake, great job. And Alex Myerson, he's on production, manages the podcast for us, Ken Schiffman as well. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and our newsletters. Rob Hof is our editor-in-chief over at SiliconANGLE, does some great editing, thanks to all. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast, wherever you listen. Publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Want to get in touch, email me directly, david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me at dvellante, or comment on our LinkedIn post. And by all means, check out etr.ai. They got really great survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, We'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (electronic music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> This past week we saw two of the Big 3 cloud providers present the latest update on their respective cloud visions, their business progress, their announcements and innovations. The content at these events had many overlapping themes, including modern cloud infrastructure at global scale, applying advanced machine intelligence, AKA AI, end-to-end data platforms, collaboration software. They talked a lot about the future of work automation. And they gave us a little taste, each company of the Metaverse Web 3.0 and much more. Despite these striking similarities, the differences between these two cloud platforms and that of AWS remains significant. With Microsoft leveraging its massive application software footprint to dominate virtually all markets and Google doing everything in its power to keep up with the frenetic pace of today's cloud innovation, which was set into motion a decade and a half ago by AWS. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we unpack the immense amount of content presented by the CEOs of Microsoft and Google Cloud at Microsoft Ignite and Google Cloud Next. We'll also quantify with ETR survey data the relative position of these two cloud giants in four key sectors: cloud IaaS, BI analytics, data platforms and collaboration software. Now one thing was clear this past week, hybrid events are the thing. Google Cloud Next took place live over a 24-hour period in six cities around the world, with the main gathering in New York City. Microsoft Ignite, which normally is attended by 30,000 people, had a smaller event in Seattle, in person with a virtual audience around the world. AWS re:Invent, of course, is much different. Yes, there's a virtual component at re:Invent, but it's all about a big live audience gathering the week after Thanksgiving, in the first week of December in Las Vegas. Regardless, Satya Nadella keynote address was prerecorded. It was highly produced and substantive. It was visionary, energetic with a strong message that Azure was a platform to allow customers to build their digital businesses. Doing more with less, which was a key theme of his. Nadella covered a lot of ground, starting with infrastructure from the compute, highlighting a collaboration with Arm-based, Ampere processors. New block storage, 60 regions, 175,000 miles of fiber cables around the world. He presented a meaningful multi-cloud message with Azure Arc to support on-prem and edge workloads, as well as of course the public cloud. And talked about confidential computing at the infrastructure level, a theme we hear from all cloud vendors. He then went deeper into the end-to-end data platform that Microsoft is building from the core data stores to analytics, to governance and the myriad tooling Microsoft offers. AI was next with a big focus on automation, AI, training models. He showed demos of machines coding and fixing code and machines automatically creating designs for creative workers and how Power Automate, Microsoft's RPA tooling, would combine with Microsoft Syntex to understand documents and provide standard ways for organizations to communicate with those documents. There was of course a big focus on Azure as developer cloud platform with GitHub Copilot as a linchpin using AI to assist coders in low-code and no-code innovations that are coming down the pipe. And another giant theme was a workforce transformation and how Microsoft is using its heritage and collaboration and productivity software to move beyond what Nadella called productivity paranoia, i.e., are remote workers doing their jobs? In a world where collaboration is built into intelligent workflows, and he even showed a glimpse of the future with AI-powered avatars and partnerships with Meta and Cisco with Teams of all firms. And finally, security with a bevy of tools from identity, endpoint, governance, et cetera, stressing a suite of tools from a single provider, i.e., Microsoft. So a couple points here. One, Microsoft is following in the footsteps of AWS with silicon advancements and didn't really emphasize that trend much except for the Ampere announcement. But it's building out cloud infrastructure at a massive scale, there is no debate about that. Its plan on data is to try and provide a somewhat more abstracted and simplified solutions, which differs a little bit from AWS's approach of the right database tool, for example, for the right job. Microsoft's automation play appears to provide simple individual productivity tools, kind of a ground up approach and make it really easy for users to drive these bottoms up initiatives. We heard from UiPath that forward five last month, a little bit of a different approach of horizontal automation, end-to-end across platforms. So quite a different play there. Microsoft's angle on workforce transformation is visionary and will continue to solidify in our view its dominant position with Teams and Microsoft 365, and it will drive cloud infrastructure consumption by default. On security as well as a cloud player, it has to have world-class security, and Azure does. There's not a lot of debate about that, but the knock on Microsoft is Patch Tuesday becomes Hack Wednesday because Microsoft releases so many patches, it's got so much Swiss cheese in its legacy estate and patching frequently, it becomes a roadmap and a trigger for hackers. Hey, patch Tuesday, these are all the exploits that you can go after so you can act before the patches are implemented. And so it's really become a problem for users. As well Microsoft is competing with many of the best-of-breed platforms like CrowdStrike and Okta, which have market momentum and appear to be more attractive horizontal plays for customers outside of just the Microsoft cloud. But again, it's Microsoft. They make it easy and very inexpensive to adopt. Now, despite the outstanding presentation by Satya Nadella, there are a couple of statements that should raise eyebrows. Here are two of them. First, as he said, Azure is the only cloud that supports all organizations and all workloads from enterprises to startups, to highly regulated industries. I had a conversation with Sarbjeet Johal about this, to make sure I wasn't just missing something and we were both surprised, somewhat, by this claim. I mean most certainly AWS supports more certifications for example, and we would think it has a reasonable case to dispute that claim. And the other statement, Nadella made, Azure is the only cloud provider enabling highly regulated industries to bring their most sensitive applications to the cloud. Now, reasonable people can debate whether AWS is there yet, but very clearly Oracle and IBM would have something to say about that statement. Now maybe it's not just, would say, "Oh, they're not real clouds, you know, they're just going to hosting in the cloud if you will." But still, when it comes to mission-critical applications, you would think Oracle is really the the leader there. Oh, and Satya also mentioned the claim that the Edge browser, the Microsoft Edge browser, no questions asked, he said, is the best browser for business. And we could see some people having some questions about that. Like isn't Edge based on Chrome? Anyway, so we just had to question these statements and challenge Microsoft to defend them because to us it's a little bit of BS and makes one wonder what else in such as awesome keynote and it was awesome, it was hyperbole. Okay, moving on to Google Cloud Next. The keynote started with Sundar Pichai doing a virtual session, he was remote, stressing the importance of Google Cloud. He mentioned that Google Cloud from its Q2 earnings was on a $25-billion annual run rate. What he didn't mention is that it's also on a 3.6 billion annual operating loss run rate based on its first half performance. Just saying. And we'll dig into that issue a little bit more later in this episode. He also stressed that the investments that Google has made to support its core business and search, like its global network of 22 subsea cables to support things like, YouTube video, great performance obviously that we all rely on, those innovations there. Innovations in BigQuery to support its search business and its threat analysis that it's always had and its AI, it's always been an AI-first company, he's stressed, that they're all leveraged by the Google Cloud Platform, GCP. This is all true by the way. Google has absolutely awesome tech and the talk, as well as his talk, Pichai, but also Kurian's was forward thinking and laid out a vision of the future. But it didn't address in our view, and I talked to Sarbjeet Johal about this as well, today's challenges to the degree that Microsoft did and we expect AWS will at re:Invent this year, it was more out there, more forward thinking, what's possible in the future, somewhat less about today's problem, so I think it's resonates less with today's enterprise players. Thomas Kurian then took over from Sundar Pichai and did a really good job of highlighting customers, and I think he has to, right? He has to say, "Look, we are in this game. We have customers, 9 out of the top 10 media firms use Google Cloud. 8 out of the top 10 manufacturers. 9 out of the top 10 retailers. Same for telecom, same for healthcare. 8 out of the top 10 retail banks." He and Sundar specifically referenced a number of companies, customers, including Avery Dennison, Groupe Renault, H&M, John Hopkins, Prudential, Minna Bank out of Japan, ANZ bank and many, many others during the session. So you know, they had some proof points and you got to give 'em props for that. Now like Microsoft, Google talked about infrastructure, they referenced training processors and regions and compute optionality and storage and how new workloads were emerging, particularly data-driven workloads in AI that required new infrastructure. He explicitly highlighted partnerships within Nvidia and Intel. I didn't see anything on Arm, which somewhat surprised me 'cause I believe Google's working on that or at least has come following in AWS's suit if you will, but maybe that's why they're not mentioning it or maybe I got to do more research there, but let's park that for a minute. But again, as we've extensively discussed in Breaking Analysis in our view when it comes to compute, AWS via its Annapurna acquisition is well ahead of the pack in this area. Arm is making its way into the enterprise, but all three companies are heavily investing in infrastructure, which is great news for customers and the ecosystem. We'll come back to that. Data and AI go hand in hand, and there was no shortage of data talk. Google didn't mention Snowflake or Databricks specifically, but it did mention, by the way, it mentioned Mongo a couple of times, but it did mention Google's, quote, Open Data cloud. Now maybe Google has used that term before, but Snowflake has been marketing the data cloud concept for a couple of years now. So that struck as a shot across the bow to one of its partners and obviously competitor, Snowflake. At BigQuery is a main centerpiece of Google's data strategy. Kurian talked about how they can take any data from any source in any format from any cloud provider with BigQuery Omni and aggregate and understand it. And with the support of Apache Iceberg and Delta and Hudi coming in the future and its open Data Cloud Alliance, they talked a lot about that. So without specifically mentioning Snowflake or Databricks, Kurian co-opted a lot of messaging from these two players, such as life and tech. Kurian also talked about Google Workspace and how it's now at 8 million users up from 6 million just two years ago. There's a lot of discussion on developer optionality and several details on tools supported and the open mantra of Google. And finally on security, Google brought out Kevin Mandian, he's a CUBE alum, extremely impressive individual who's CEO of Mandiant, a leading security service provider and consultancy that Google recently acquired for around 5.3 billion. They talked about moving from a shared responsibility model to a shared fate model, which is again, it's kind of a shot across AWS's bow, kind of shared responsibility model. It's unclear that Google will pay the same penalty if a customer doesn't live up to its portion of the shared responsibility, but we can probably assume that the customer is still going to bear the brunt of the pain, nonetheless. Mandiant is really interesting because it's a services play and Google has stated that it is not a services company, it's going to give partners in the channel plenty of room to play. So we'll see what it does with Mandiant. But Mandiant is a very strong enterprise capability and in the single most important area security. So interesting acquisition by Google. Now as well, unlike Microsoft, Google is not competing with security leaders like Okta and CrowdStrike. Rather, it's partnering aggressively with those firms and prominently putting them forth. All right. Let's get into the ETR survey data and see how Microsoft and Google are positioned in four key markets that we've mentioned before, IaaS, BI analytics, database data platforms and collaboration software. First, let's look at the IaaS cloud. ETR is just about to release its October survey, so I cannot share the that data yet. I can only show July data, but we're going to give you some directional hints throughout this conversation. This chart shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and overlap or presence in the data, i.e., how pervasive the platform is. That's on the horizontal axis. And we've inserted the Wikibon estimates of IaaS revenue for the companies, the Big 3. Actually the Big 4, we included Alibaba. So a couple of points in this somewhat busy data chart. First, Microsoft and AWS as always are dominant on both axes. The red dotted line there at 40% on the vertical axis. That represents a highly elevated spending velocity and all of the Big 3 are above the line. Now at the same time, GCP is well behind the two leaders on the horizontal axis and you can see that in the table insert as well in our revenue estimates. Now why is Azure bigger in the ETR survey when AWS is larger according to the Wikibon revenue estimates? And the answer is because Microsoft with products like 365 and Teams will often be considered by respondents in the survey as cloud by customers, so they fit into that ETR category. But in the insert data we're stripping out applications and SaaS from Microsoft and Google and we're only isolating on IaaS. The other point is when you take a look at the early October returns, you see downward pressure as signified by those dotted arrows on every name. The only exception was Dell, or Dell and IBM, which showing slightly improved momentum. So the survey data generally confirms what we know that AWS and Azure have a massive lead and strong momentum in the marketplace. But the real story is below the line. Unlike Google Cloud, which is on pace to lose well over 3 billion on an operating basis this year, AWS's operating profit is around $20 billion annually. Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud generated more than $30 billion in operating income last fiscal year. Let that sink in for a moment. Now again, that's not to say Google doesn't have traction, it does and Kurian gave some nice proof points and customer examples in his keynote presentation, but the data underscores the lead that Microsoft and AWS have on Google in cloud. And here's a breakdown of ETR's proprietary net score methodology, that vertical axis that we showed you in the previous chart. It asks customers, are you adopting the platform new? That's that lime green. Are you spending 6% or more? That's the forest green. Is you're spending flat? That's the gray. Is you're spending down 6% or worse? That's the pinkest color. Or are you replacing the platform, defecting? That's the bright red. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get a net score. Now one caveat here, which actually is really favorable from Microsoft, the Microsoft data that we're showing here is across the entire Microsoft portfolio. The other point is, this is July data, we'll have an update for you once ETR releases its October results. But we're talking about meaningful samples here, the ends. 620 for AWS over a thousand from Microsoft in more than 450 respondents in the survey for Google. So the real tell is replacements, that bright red. There is virtually no churn for AWS and Microsoft, but Google's churn is 5x, those two in the survey. Now 5% churn is not high, but you'd like to see three things for Google given it's smaller size. One is less churn, two is much, much higher adoption rates in the lime green. Three is a higher percentage of those spending more, the forest green. And four is a lower percentage of those spending less. And none of these conditions really applies here for Google. GCP is still not growing fast enough in our opinion, and doesn't have nearly the traction of the two leaders and that shows up in the survey data. All right, let's look at the next sector, BI analytics. Here we have that same XY dimension. Again, Microsoft dominating the picture. AWS very strong also in both axes. Tableau, very popular and respectable of course acquired by Salesforce on the vertical axis, still looking pretty good there. And again on the horizontal axis, big presence there for Tableau. And Google with Looker and its other platforms is also respectable, but it again, has some work to do. Now notice Streamlit, that's a recent Snowflake acquisition. It's strong in the vertical axis and because of Snowflake's go-to-market (indistinct), it's likely going to move to the right overtime. Grafana is also prominent in the Y axis, but a glimpse at the most recent survey data shows them slightly declining while Looker actually improves a bit. As does Cloudera, which we'll move up slightly. Again, Microsoft just blows you away, doesn't it? All right, now let's get into database and data platform. Same X Y dimensions, but now database and data warehouse. Snowflake as usual takes the top spot on the vertical axis and it is actually keeps moving to the right as well with again, Microsoft and AWS is dominant in the market, as is Oracle on the X axis, albeit it's got less spending velocity, but of course it's the database king. Google is well behind on the X axis but solidly above the 40% line on the vertical axis. Note that virtually all platforms will see pressure in the next survey due to the macro environment. Microsoft might even dip below the 40% line for the first time in a while. Lastly, let's look at the collaboration and productivity software market. This is such an important area for both Microsoft and Google. And just look at Microsoft with 365 and Teams up into the right. I mean just so impressive in ubiquitous. And we've highlighted Google. It's in the pack. It certainly is a nice base with 174 N, which I can tell you that N will rise in the next survey, which is an indication that more people are adopting. But given the investment and the tech behind it and all the AI and Google's resources, you'd really like to see Google in this space above the 40% line, given the importance of this market, of this collaboration area to Google's success and the degree to which they emphasize it in their pitch. And look, this brings up something that we've talked about before on Breaking Analysis. Google doesn't have a tech problem. This is a go-to-market and marketing challenge that Google faces and it's up against two go-to-market champs and Microsoft and AWS. And Google doesn't have the enterprise sales culture. It's trying, it's making progress, but it's like that racehorse that has all the potential in the world, but it's just missing some kind of key ingredient to put it over at the top. It's always coming in third, (chuckles) but we're watching and Google's obviously, making some investments as we shared with earlier. All right. Some final thoughts on what we learned this week and in this research: customers and partners should be thrilled that both Microsoft and Google along with AWS are spending so much money on innovation and building out global platforms. This is a gift to the industry and we should be thankful frankly because it's good for business, it's good for competitiveness and future innovation as a platform that can be built upon. Now we didn't talk much about multi-cloud, we haven't even mentioned supercloud, but both Microsoft and Google have a story that resonates with customers in cross cloud capabilities, unlike AWS at this time. But we never say never when it comes to AWS. They sometimes and oftentimes surprise you. One of the other things that Sarbjeet Johal and John Furrier and I have discussed is that each of the Big 3 is positioning to their respective strengths. AWS is the best IaaS. Microsoft is building out the kind of, quote, we-make-it-easy-for-you cloud, and Google is trying to be the open data cloud with its open-source chops and excellent tech. And that puts added pressure on Snowflake, doesn't it? You know, Thomas Kurian made some comments according to CRN, something to the effect that, we are the only company that can do the data cloud thing across clouds, which again, if I'm being honest is not really accurate. Now I haven't clarified these statements with Google and often things get misquoted, but there's little question that, as AWS has done in the past with Redshift, Google is taking a page out of Snowflake, Databricks as well. A big difference in the Big 3 is that AWS doesn't have this big emphasis on the up-the-stack collaboration software that both Microsoft and Google have, and that for Microsoft and Google will drive captive IaaS consumption. AWS obviously does some of that in database, a lot of that in database, but ISVs that compete with Microsoft and Google should have a greater affinity, one would think, to AWS for competitive reasons. and the same thing could be said in security, we would think because, as I mentioned before, Microsoft competes very directly with CrowdStrike and Okta and others. One of the big thing that Sarbjeet mentioned that I want to call out here, I'd love to have your opinion. AWS specifically, but also Microsoft with Azure have successfully created what Sarbjeet calls brand distance. AWS from the Amazon Retail, and even though AWS all the time talks about Amazon X and Amazon Y is in their product portfolio, but you don't really consider it part of the retail organization 'cause it's not. Azure, same thing, has created its own identity. And it seems that Google still struggles to do that. It's still very highly linked to the sort of core of Google. Now, maybe that's by design, but for enterprise customers, there's still some potential confusion with Google, what's its intentions? How long will they continue to lose money and invest? Are they going to pull the plug like they do on so many other tools? So you know, maybe some rethinking of the marketing there and the positioning. Now we didn't talk much about ecosystem, but it's vital for any cloud player, and Google again has some work to do relative to the leaders. Which brings us to supercloud. The ecosystem and end customers are now in a position this decade to digitally transform. And we're talking here about building out their own clouds, not by putting in and building data centers and installing racks of servers and storage devices, no. Rather to build value on top of the hyperscaler gift that has been presented. And that is a mega trend that we're watching closely in theCUBE community. While there's debate about the supercloud name and so forth, there little question in our minds that the next decade of cloud will not be like the last. All right, we're going to leave it there today. Many thanks to Sarbjeet Johal, and my business partner, John Furrier, for their input to today's episode. Thanks to Alex Myerson who's on production and manages the podcast and Ken Schiffman as well. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight helped get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE, who does some wonderful editing. And check out SiliconANGLE, a lot of coverage on Google Cloud Next and Microsoft Ignite. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcast wherever you listen. Just search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. And you can always get in touch with me via email, david.vellante@siliconangle.com or you can DM me at dvellante or comment on my LinkedIn posts. And please do check out etr.ai, the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (gentle music)

(bright music) >> Okay, we're back in theCUBE. We said we were signing off for the night, but during the hallway track, we ran into old friend Stu Miniman who was the Director of Market Insights at Red Hat. Stu, friend of theCUBE done the thousands of CUBE interviews. >> Dave, it's great to be here. Thanks for pulling me on, you and I hosted Red Hat Summit before. It's great to see Paul here. I was actually, I was talking to some of the Red Hatters walking around Boston. It's great to have an event here. Boston's got strong presence and I understand, I think was either first or second year, they had it over... What's the building they're tearing down right down the road here. Was that the World Trade Center? I think that's where they actually held it, the first time they were here. We hosted theCUBE >> So they moved up. >> at the Hines Convention Center. We did theCUBE for summit at the BCEC next door. And of course, with the pandemic being what it was, we're a little smaller, nice intimate event here. It's great to be able to room the hall, see a whole bunch of people and lots watching online. >> It's great, it's around the same size as those, remember those Vertica Big Data events that we used to have here. And I like that you were commenting out at the theater and the around this morning for the keynotes, that was good. And the keynotes being compressed, I think, is real value for the attendees, you know? 'Cause people come to these events, they want to see each other, you know? They want to... It's like the band getting back together. And so when you're stuck in the keynote room, it's like, "Oh, it's okay, it's time to go." >> I don't know that any of us used to sitting at home where I could just click to another tab or pause it or run for, do something for the family, or a quick bio break. It's the three-hour keynote I hope has been retired. >> But it's an interesting point though, that the virtual event really is driving the physical and this, the way Red Hat marketed this event was very much around the virtual attendee. Physical was almost an afterthought, so. >> Right, this is an invite only for in-person. So you're absolutely right. It's optimizing the things that are being streamed, the online audience is the big audience. And we just happy to be in here to clap and do some things see around what you're doing. >> Wonderful see that becoming the norm. >> I think like virtual Stu, you know this well when virtual first came in, nobody had a clue with what they were doing. It was really hard. They tried different things, they tried to take the physical and just jam it into the virtual. That didn't work, they tried doing fun things. They would bring in a famous person or a comedian. And that kind of worked, I guess, but everybody showed up for that and then left. And I think they're trying to figure it out what this hybrid thing is. I've seen it both ways. I've seen situations like this, where they're really sensitive to the virtual. I've seen others where that's the FOMO of the physical, people want physical. So, yeah, I think it depends. I mean, reinvent last year was heavy physical. >> Yeah, with 15,000 people there. >> Pretty long keynotes, you know? So maybe Amazon can get away with it, but I think most companies aren't going to be able to. So what is the market telling you? What are these insights? >> So Dave just talking about Amazon, obviously, the world I live in cloud and that discussion of cloud, the journey that customers are going on is where we're spending a lot of the discussions. So, it was great to hear in the keynote, talked about our deep partnerships with the cloud providers and what we're doing to help people with, you like to call it super cloud, some call it hybrid, or multi-cloud... >> New name. (crosstalk) Meta-Cloud, come on. >> All right, you know if Che's my executive, so it's wonderful. >> Love it. >> But we'll see, if I could put on my VR Goggles and that will help me move things. But I love like the partnership announcement with General Motors today because not every company has the needs of software driven electric vehicles all over the place. But the technology that we build for them actually has ramifications everywhere. We've working to take Kubernetes and make it smaller over time. So things that we do at the edge benefit the cloud, benefit what we do in the data center, it's that advancement of science and technology just lifts all boats. >> So what's your take on all this? The EV and software on wheels. I mean, Tesla obviously has a huge lead. It's kind of like the Amazon of vehicles, right? It's sort of inspired a whole new wave of innovation. Now you've got every automobile manufacturer kind of go and after. That is the future of vehicles is something you followed or something you have an opinion on Stu? >> Absolutely. It's driving innovation in some ways, the way the DOS drove innovation on the desktop, if you remember the 64K DOS limit, for years, that was... The software developers came up with some amazing ways to work within that 64K limit. Then when it was gone, we got bloatware, but it actually does enforce a level of discipline on you to try to figure out how to make software run better, run more efficiently. And that has upstream impacts on the enterprise products. >> Well, right. So following your analogy, you talk about the enablement to the desktop, Linux was a huge influence on allowing the individual person to write code and write software, and what's happening in the EV, it's software platform. All of these innovations that we're seeing across industries, it's how is software transforming things. We go back to the mark end reasons, software's eating the world, open source is the way that software is developed. Who's at the intersection of all those? We think we have a nice part to play in that. I loved tha- Dave, I don't know if you caught at the end of the keynote, Matt Hicks basically said, "Our mission isn't just to write enterprise software. "Our mission is based off of open source because open source unlocks innovation for the world." And that's one of the things that drew me to Red Hat, it's not just tech in good places, but allowing underrepresented, different countries to participate in what's happening with software. And we can all move that ball forward. >> Well, can we declare victory for open source because it's not just open source products, but everything that's developed today, whether proprietary or open has open source in it. >> Paul, I agree. Open source is the development model period, today. Are there some places that there's proprietary? Absolutely. But I had a discussion with Deepak Singh who's been on theCUBE many times. He said like, our default is, we start with open source code. I mean, even Amazon when you start talking about that. >> I said this, the $70 billion business on open source. >> Exactly. >> Necessarily give it back, but that say, Hey, this is... All's fair in tech and more. >> It is interesting how the managed service model has sort of rescued open source, open source companies, that were trying to do the Red Hat model. No one's ever really successfully duplicated the Red Hat model. A lot of companies were floundering and failing. And then the managed service option came along. And so now they're all cloud service providers. >> So the only thing I'd say is that there are some other peers we have in the industry that are built off open source they're doing okay. The recent example, GitLab and Hashicorp, both went public. Hashi is doing some managed services, but it's not the majority of their product. Look at a company like Mongo, they've heavily pivoted toward the managed service. It is where we see the largest growth in our area. The products that we have again with Amazon, with Microsoft, huge growth, lots of interest. It's one of the things I spend most of my time talking on. >> I think Databricks is another interesting example 'cause Cloudera was the now company and they had the sort of open core, and then they had the proprietary piece, and they've obviously didn't work. Databricks when they developed Spark out of Berkeley, everybody thought they were going to do kind of a similar model. Instead, they went for all in managed services. And it's really worked well, I think they were ahead of that curve and you're seeing it now is it's what customers want. >> Well, I mean, Dave, you cover the database market pretty heavily. How many different open source database options are there today? And that's one of the things we're solving. When you look at what is Red Hat doing in the cloud? Okay, I've got lots of databases. Well, we have something called, it's Red Hat Open Database Access, which is from a developer, I don't want to have to think about, I've got six different databases, which one, where's the repository? How does all that happen? We give that consistency, it's tied into OpenShift, so it can help abstract some of those pieces. we've got same Kafka streaming and we've got APIs. So it's frameworks and enablers to help bridge that gap between the complexity that's out there, in the cloud and for the developer tool chain. >> That's really important role you guys play though because you had this proliferation, you mentioned Mongo. So many others, Presto and Starbursts, et cetera, so many other open source options out there now. And companies, developers want to work with multiple databases within the same application. And you have a role in making that easy. >> Yeah, so and that is, if you talk about the question I get all the time is, what's next for Kubernetes? Dave, you and I did a preview for KubeCon and it's automation and simplicity that we need to be. It's not enough to just say, "Hey, we've got APIs." It's like Dave, we used to say, "We've got standards? Great." Everybody's implementation was a little bit different. So we have API Sprawl today. So it's building that ecosystem. You've been talking to a number of our partners. We are very active in the community and trying to do things that can lift up the community, help the developers, help that cloud native ecosystem, help our customers move faster. >> Yeah API's better than scripts, but they got to be managed, right? So, and that's really what you guys are doing that's different. You're not trying to own everything, right? It's sort of antithetical to how billions and trillions are made in the IT industry. >> I remember a few years ago we talked here, and you look at the size that Red Hat is. And the question is, could Red Hat have monetized more if the model was a little different? It's like, well maybe, but that's not the why. I love that they actually had Simon Sinek come in and work with Red Hat and that open, unlocks the world. Like that's the core, it's the why. When I join, they're like, here's a book of Red Hat, you can get it online and that why of what we do, so we never have to think of how do we get there. We did an acquisition in the security space a year ago, StackRox, took us a year, it's open source. Stackrox.io, it's community driven, open source project there because we could have said, "Oh, well, yeah, it's kind of open source and there's pieces that are open source, but we want it to be fully open source." You just talked to Gunnar about how he's RHEL nine, based off CentOS stream, and now developing out in the open with that model, so. >> Well, you were always a big fan of Whitehurst culture book, right? It makes a difference. >> The open organization and right, Red Hat? That culture is special. It's definitely interesting. So first of all, most companies are built with the hierarchy in mind. Had a friend of mine that when he joined Red Hat, he's like, I don't understand, it's almost like you have like lots of individual contractors, all doing their things 'cause Red Hat works on thousands of projects. But I remember talking to Rackspace years ago when OpenStack was a thing and they're like, "How do you figure out what to work on?" "Oh, well we hired great people and they work on what's important to them." And I'm like, "That doesn't sound like a business." And he is like, "Well, we struggle sometimes to that balance." Red Hat has found that balance because we work on a lot of different projects and there are people inside Red Hat that are, you know, they care more about the project than they do the business, but there's the overall view as to where we participate and where we productize because we're not creating IP because it's all an open source. So it's the monetizations, the relationships we have our customers, the ecosystems that we build. And so that is special. And I'll tell you that my line has been Red Hat on the inside is even more Red Hat. The debates and the discussions are brutal. I mean, technical people tearing things apart, questioning things and you can't be thin skinned. And the other thing is, what's great is new people. I've talked to so many people that started at Red Hat as interns and will stay for seven, eight years. And they come there and they have as much of a seat at the table, and when I talk to new people, your job, is if you don't understand something or you think we might be able to do it differently, you better speak up because we want your opinion and we'll take that, everybody takes that into consideration. It's not like, does the decision go all the way up to this executive? And it's like, no, it's done more at the team. >> The cultural contrast between that and your parent, IBM, couldn't be more dramatic. And we talked earlier with Paul Cormier about has IBM really walked the walk when it comes to leaving Red Hat alone. Naturally he said, "Yes." Well what's your perspective. >> Yeah, are there some big blue people across the street or something I heard that did this event, but look, do we interact with IBM? Of course. One of the reasons that IBM and IBM Services, both products and services should be able to help get us breadth in the marketplace. There are times that we go arm and arm into customer meetings and there are times that customers tell us, "I like Red Hat, I don't like IBM." And there's other ones that have been like, "Well, I'm a long time IBM, I'm not sure about Red Hat." And we have to be able to meet all of those customers where they are. But from my standpoint, I've got a Red Hat badge, I've got a Red Hat email, I've got Red Hat benefits. So we are fiercely independent. And you know, Paul, we've done blogs and there's lots of articles been written is, Red Hat will stay Red Hat. I didn't happen to catch Arvin I know was on CNBC today and talking at their event, but I'm sure Red Hat got mentioned, but... >> Well, he talks about Red Hat all time. >> But in his call he's talking backwards. >> It's interesting that he's not here, greeting this audience, right? It's again, almost by design, right? >> But maybe that's supposed to be... >> Hundreds of yards away. >> And one of the questions being in the cloud group is I'm not out pitching IBM Cloud, you know? If a customer comes to me and asks about, we have a deep partnership and IBM will be happy to tell you about our integrations, as opposed to, I'm happy to go into a deep discussion of what we're doing with Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. So that's how we do it. It's very different Dave, from you and I watch really closely the VMware-EMC, VMware-Dell, and how that relationship. This one is different. We are owned by IBM, but we mostly, it does IBM fund initiatives and have certain strategic things that are done, absolutely. But we maintain Red Hat. >> But there are similarities. I mean, VMware crowd didn't want to talk about EMC, but they had to, they were kind of forced to. Whereas, you're not being forced to. >> And then once Dell came in there, it was joint product development. >> I always thought a spin in. Would've been the more effective, of course, Michael Dell and Egon wouldn't have gotten their $40 billion out. But I think a spin in was more natural based on where they were going. And it would've been, I think, a more dominant position in the marketplace. They would've had more software, but again, financially it wouldn't have made as much sense, but that whole dynamic is different. I mean, but people said they were going to look at VMware as a model and it's been largely different because remember, VMware of course was a separate company, now is a fully separate company. Red Hat was integrated, we thought, okay, are they going to get blue washed? We're watching and watching, and watching, you had said, well, if the Red Hat culture isn't permeating IBM, then it's a failure. And I don't know if that's happening, but it's definitely... >> I think a long time for that. >> It's definitely been preserved. >> I mean, Dave, I know I read one article at the beginning of the year is, can Arvin make IBM, Microsoft Junior? Follow the same turnaround that Satya Nadella drove over there. IBM I think making some progress, I mean, I read and watch what you and the team are all writing about it. And I'll withhold judgment on IBM. Obviously, there's certain financial things that we'd love to see IBM succeed. We worry about our business. We do our thing and IBM shares our results and they've been solid, so. >> Microsoft had such massive cash flow that even bomber couldn't screw it up. Well, I mean, this is true, right? I mean, you think about how were relevant Microsoft was in the conversation during his tenure and yet they never got really... They maintained a position so that when the Nadella came in, they were able to reascend and now are becoming that dominant player. I mean, IBM just doesn't have that cash flow and that luxury, but I mean, if he pulls it off, he'll be the CEO of the decade. >> You mentioned partners earlier, big concern when the acquisition was first announced, was that the Dells and the HP's and the such wouldn't want to work with Red Hat anymore, you've sort of been here through that transition. Is that an issue? >> Not that I've seen, no. I mean, the hardware suppliers, the ISVs, the GSIs are all very important. It was great to see, I think you had Accenture on theCUBE today, obviously very important partner as we go to the cloud. IBM's another important partner, not only for IBM Cloud, but IBM Services, deep partnership with Azure and AWS. So those partners and from a technology standpoint, the cloud native ecosystem, we talked about, it's not just a Red Hat product. I constantly have to talk about, look, we have a lot of pieces, but your developers are going to have other tools that they're going to use and the security space. There is no such thing as a silver bullet. So I've been having some great conversations here already this week with some of our partners that are helping us to round out that whole solution, help our customers because it has to be, it's an ecosystem. And we're one of the drivers to help that move forward. >> Well, I mean, we were at Dell Tech World last week, and there's a lot of talk about DevSecOps and DevOps and Dell being more developer friendly. Obviously they got a long way to go, but you can't have that take that posture and not have a relationship with Red Hat. If all you got is Pivotal and VMware, and Tansu >> I was thrilled to hear the OpenShift mention in the keynote when they talked about what they were doing. >> How could you not, how could you have any credibility if you're just like, Oh, Pivotal, Pivotal, Pivotal, Tansu, Tansu. Tansu is doing its thing. And they smart strategy. >> VMware is also a partner of ours, but that we would hope that with VMware being independent, that does open the door for us to do more with them. >> Yeah, because you guys have had a weird relationship with them, under ownership of EMC and then Dell, right? And then the whole IBM thing. But it's just a different world now. Ecosystems are forming and reforming, and Dell's building out its own cloud and it's got to have... Look at Amazon, I wrote about this. I said, "Can you envision the day where Dell actually offers competitive products in its suite, in its service offering?" I mean, it's hard to see, they're not there yet. They're not even close. And they have this high say/do ratio, or really it's a low say/do, they say high say/do, but look at what they did with Nutanix. You look over- (chuckles) would tell if it's the Cisco relationship. So it's got to get better at that. And it will, I really do believe. That's new thinking and same thing with HPE. And, I don't know about Lenovo that not as much of an ecosystem play, but certainly Dell and HPE. >> Absolutely. Michael Dell would always love to poke at HPE and HP really went very far down the path of their own products. They went away from their services organization that used to be more like IBM, that would offer lots of different offerings and very much, it was HP Invent. Well, if we didn't invent it, you're not getting it from us. So Dell, we'll see, as you said, the ecosystems are definitely forming, converging and going in lots of different directions. >> But your position is, Hey, we're here, we're here to help. >> Yeah, we're here. We have customers, one of the best proof points I have is the solution that we have with Amazon. Amazon doesn't do the engineering work to make us a native offering if they didn't have the customer demand because Amazon's driven off of data. So they came to us, they worked with us. It's a lot of work to be able to make that happen, but you want to make it frictionless for customers so that they can adopt that. That's a long path. >> All right, so evening event, there's a customer event this evening upstairs in the lobby. Microsoft is having a little shin dig, and then serves a lot of customer dinners going on. So Stu, we'll see you out there tonight. >> All right, thanks you. >> Were watching a brewing somewhere. >> Keynotes tomorrow, a lot of good sessions and enablement, and yeah, it's great to be in person to be able to bump some people, meet some people and, Hey, I'm still a year and a half in still meeting a lot of my peers in person for the first time. >> Yeah, and that's kind of weird, isn't it? Imagine. And then we kick off tomorrow at 10:00 AM. Actually, Stephanie Chiras is coming on. There she is in the background. She's always a great guest and maybe do a little kickoff and have some fun tomorrow. So this is Dave Vellante for Stu Miniman, Paul Gillin, who's my co-host. You're watching theCUBEs coverage of Red Hat Summit 2022. We'll see you tomorrow. (bright music)

(upbeat music) >> Hey everyone. Welcome back to theCUBE's coverage of Coupa Inspire 2022. We are in Las Vegas at the beautiful Cosmopolitan hotel. I'm your host, Lisa Martin. Brian McKillips joins me next, a managing director at Accenture. Brian, it's great to have you on the program. >> Thanks for having me, I'm glad to be here. >> So you have an interesting, you lead a lot of stuff at Accenture and I want to read this off, so I get it right. You lead the intelligent platform services strategy and the industry and functions platform group. Talk to me about those responsibilities. >> Yeah, so the intelligent platform services is the place in the business where we have kind of our large software partners, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, Workday, Salesforce and Adobe. And we kind of think of ourselves as kind of the engine that powers industry and functional solutions, right? And the way Accenture's gone to market over the last couple of years has been kind of bringing together our breadth of experience all the way from strategy, all the way through operations and these big technology transformations are at the core of that. So that's what we do in intelligent platform services. And we recently launched this what we call the industry and functions platforms group because we realized there's a lot of strategic partners that are critical for us to be have a strong practice around, COUPA being one of them, you know in the supply chain and sourcing and procurement space so that we could create a home to be able to deliver these solutions globally and at scale. So I lead both kind of the strategy across all of IPS and then the new industry and functions platform group. >> Got it. All right. So you're here to talk to me about composable technology. First of all, define that for the audience so they understand what you're talking about. >> Yeah, you bet. So, you know, at Accenture, we're talking a lot about this is the age of compressed transformation, meaning, you know, change is only going to speed up and the need to change and so our clients are really struggling with not only kind of moving fast but that pressure around having to change as dynamics around the world change. So in the age of compressed transformation, we were really talking about how our clients should be kind of reorienting the way they think about their tech stack. And because, you know, historically a lot of us grew up in kind of monolithic implementations with, you know one software provider. But today it's really about composing technology to create new industry, new ways to solve industry problems, functional processes, customer experiences, right? And so composable technology we think about it in three parts. One is a cloud foundation that is, you know, the hyperscalers are a critical part of that. Secondly, our digital core and these are the kind of the historic software packages at the center of a lot of the industry and functional business processes. So you think about SAP and Oracle and Salesforce and things like that. But then around that digital core you have composable elements to be able to plug in. And that could be things like other software packages but it's also kind of industry IP or you know, edge devices, you know think IOT, think smart appliances, think and when you put, pull all those things together you need to be able to not only configure it once but configure and reconfigure as the dynamics of the marketplace change. >> So composable technology isn't necessarily new but has the pandemic been an accelerator of some of the things that you're seeing now in terms of why it's important, what's different about it now as being a foundation for competitive differentiation? >> Yeah, for sure. And it's, you know, I, anybody who's in technology say, you know, you tell them about this idea, they're like, well this isn't new, we've had service oriented architectures for 20 years. >> Right. >> You know, we've been talking about integrating things forever, but the you know, much like we all five to seven years ago we knew that we'd be using our phones to pay for pretty much everything but the tech hadn't caught up, right. Not every restaurant or store that you went to had the point of sale set up, right. So we all kind of knew that was coming. And the same thing has kind of happened around this idea of about composable technology and the three things that are new are one is that the cloud foundation is here, right. >> Yes. >> Where, you know, you now have not only kind of hyperscale high speed compute in at the core you actually have at the edge as well. And the same thing with high speed network, you know you have Starlink, you have 5G rolling out. So you have that cloud foundation that really wasn't there before. The second thing that's happening is the posture of a lot of the ecosystem, major ecosystem players has changed, right. And this started, you know when Satya Nadella took over Microsoft where Microsoft was very much a kind of a closed environment. >> Right. >> Where Satya under his leadership has really kind of changed the posture of being able to integrate into that. And we've seen that really pretty much across the entire landscape. And then lastly, it's become, you know, cheaper and, you know, quicker to be able to integrate with platforms like MuleSoft and others where there's kind of full scale integration platforms. So those are, those are the kind of the things that are new that allows for composable technology to be here in the real world. >> So it's something that's tangible, it's real organizations need to be on this bandwagon I imagine or they're going to be left behind. Gartner had some interesting stats that your team sent over and they were talking about these stats that were very compelling in terms of a seismic shift which always, you hear seismic living in California I think earthquakes, but something substantial. And they said, this seismic shift is going to happen by 2023. And I thought, hang on, that's less than a year away. >> Yeah. >> And they talked about by 2023, organizations that have adopted an intelligent composable approach will outpace competition 80% in the speed of new feature implementation. So if an organization hasn't started on that now is it too late? >> I would say not necessarily too late but they need to look for ways to change their disposition, right. And one of the ways that we've been helping clients do this is through pre-integrated solutions, right. So you know, in the past, the motion would be we would work with a client, they would work with our kind of strategists and consultants and say, what does the the future of supply chain look like for example. And if the client liked it, they would say, okay, I love it, what do I do next? Right. Then there would be another consulting engagement, another consulting engagement and then there would be a blueprint and architecture and at some point there was an implementation and a run. We've actually said we're investing heavily with our ecosystem partners to be able to pre-integrate solutions. So when that supply chain strategist says this is what the post COVID supply chain should look like and the client says, I love it what do I do next, that strategist can turn around and say, well, we've got a pre-integrated solution with SAP at the core sitting on a Microsoft Azure stack integrated with Coupa, wrapped with AI and machine learning and we can drop that and configure it for an environment. So that's how we're working with clients who are in that position that really need to kind of change their disposition is to bring these pre-integrated solutions and drop them in. >> Where are your conversations at the C- Suite level? Because this is, I hear many things in what you just said. Part of it is change management, which is very challenging. There's, people are very resistant to that. >> Brian: Yeah. >> One of the things that we've learned in the last two years is if it's going to come it's going to come but where are your conversations within that executive suite in terms of getting buy-in and going this is the direction we have to go in. >> Brian: Yeah. >> Because our business needs to be not just survive but thrive. >> Yeah. Yeah. These are, I mean, there are certainly of course in kind of traditional channels of tech whether it's, you know, the CIO or the CTO, but increasingly we're seeing this is a CEO discussion and, you know, our CEO Julie Sweet, is very, very market pacing and is having top to top conversations talking about compressed transformation, talking about composable technology because it's no longer just a, you know, a back office function as you know, right. I mean, this is really core to how companies you know, are, change their business models, make money, right. And it's a constant evolution. And that's why we talk about that kind of configuring and reconfiguring, it's not just coming in, implementing once, run it for five years and then when it's time to upgrade, we come back. >> No. >> We really want to be the partner with our clients to basically move in and, you know, across the patch whether it's specific industry processes, specific functional processes, specific customer experiences, we want to be the partner that is constantly tuning and configuring and reconfiguring and composing these solutions from across the ecosystem. >> And helping those businesses in any industry evolve as you talked about this compressed timeline, compressed transformation, such an interesting way of describing it but it's really true, it's what we've been living the last couple of years. >> Brian: Yeah. And so I want to get into Accenture's technology vision. You touched on this a little bit but there was some stats that your team provided that I thought were really, really interesting, a survey that Accenture did, 77% of executives, and we were just talking about the C-suite, state that their tech architecture is becoming critical to the overall success of the organization. So that awareness is there for sure en masse. Another thing that, stat that was interesting was 90% of business and IT execs agree that to be agile we always talk about agility, right, be resilient, organizations need to fast forward this digital transformation at the core. There's that compressed transformation. >> Brian: Yeah. >> Those are very high numbers. >> Brian: Yeah. >> In terms of where organizations say we see where we need to be. What's the vision at Accenture to help organizations get there fast? >> Yeah. Well, I think it's, you know, the thing that came to mind as you were talking is that we have, you know, major clients that have had this had in the, you know consumer packaged goods and apparel space that have had one way that they've done business is directly through retailers, you know, for pretty much their whole existence. Suddenly they need to shift to a direct to consumer model both in terms of marketing, in terms of commerce and that's not, you know, you don't just flip a switch in the back office and, you know, call IT and say hey, hey, can you change around a few things? It's actually shifting the entire core, it touches everything, it touches point of sale, it touches the customer experience, it touches supply chain, it touches employee experience even, right. >> Yeah. >> And so that's why I think it's so important for, you know technology leaders and business leaders to continue to kind of integrate themselves more tightly. >> Yes. >> To be able to make these business model transformations not just, you know, the tech that supports things. >> It's essential. >> Yeah. >> You know, we often in so many shows, Brian, we talk about alignment of business and technology, but it's not trivial. >> Yeah, yeah. >> It's absolutely fundamental to the success of every organization. And they've got to do so and as you said, I'm going to use your, your word, the compressed transformation. >> Yeah. >> A compressed timeframe. So talk to me about some customer examples where you really feel that Accenture and Coupa have helped this organization transform its supply chain to be able to be, use composable technology. >> Brian: Yeah. >> To be a leader in its industry. >> Yeah. Well, one example of that is a major industrial client that we have that has global operations across the world. And they're on a journey to kind of upgrade their digital core ERP that they've been on for a long time. And that's a multi-year journey. But at, you know, today they have needs for sourcing and procurement solutions in specific geographies around the world like Japan, for example. So what we've been able to do and it's a relatively simple example but quickly work with the client and Coupa to identify the right Coupa solution that's born in the cloud that has a great kind of user experience and implement that quickly as well as integrated it into the digital core, right. So they're not separate things. And it becomes part of that architecture, right. It just starts to kind of show the flexibility of when you have, when you come with a kind of composable technology point of view, the way we can help our clients do that. And in some other cases it's even more, you know, more cutting edge. So think about a utilities client, for example that has IOT sensors on their wires and when the, when that wire swings too far they say something's wrong. Automatically it goes back to the digital core cuts a ticket and finds the closest worker. >> Lisa: Okay. >> To then dispatch. The worker then can put on their hollow lens, for example and climb the pole and get directions on how to solve the problem right then and there, right? That's another example of you know, multiple systems, edge devices things coming together in order to create that. And it's only going to get faster, you know, with the metaverse. >> Lisa: Right. >> You know, with web 3.0 coming, with blockchain becoming more and more mainstream, companies need to be thinking about in this age of compressed transformation how to do that composable technology that you can figure and reconfigure. >> Do you think that we're in an age of compressed transformation or is that how it's going to be going forward given the global climate the last two years? >> Yeah. It's definitely going to be that way going forward over the next, you know, probably for the large part of the, the remainder of our career. I mean, we're, our CTO, Paul Daugherty, talks about us being an mega cycle, right? There's so many things changing. And even without these externalities of, you know, political issues and pandemics, you know, the introduction of AI and machine learning, a lot of these technologies I just mentioned, it's, the change is happening in every industry, in every, you know kind of area of the marketplace and in a way that's, you know, that's really exciting, right. And we get to help our clients be able to kind of solve those things not just once, but continually >> There's a tremendous amount of opportunity that's come from compressed transformation, right. A lot of opportunity, a lot of potential. What are some of the things that you're looking forward to say in the next year, as we talked about some of those business and lines of business and IT folks understand we've got to move in this direction. What excites you about the potential that you have to help these organizations really transform? >> Yeah, well, I think, I mean, the, we just came out with our new tech vision which is about the metaverse. And I think that the things that excite me are there's brand new ways like we've lived in a world where transactions take place in a very predictable way with local currencies through a single channel. And that was, that's been sort of fixed for a long time. The fundamentals of the economy or actually in the marketplace are starting to change in terms of how do we transact with things like cryptocurrencies, things like non fungible tokens, you know, all these things that we didn't, you know, they weren't, even the metaverse these were not main line words, even six you know, months ago, 12 months ago. >> Lisa: Right, right. >> Now these things, you know, every it seems like every month there's something new that is, you know, seismic to use your word that is shifting the fundamentals of the marketplace. And I think that's what's really exciting. I mean, that's where, I mean, it's probably one of the most exciting times to be in business, be in the marketplace. It certainly has a lot of challenges. >> Lisa: Yes. >> But, you know, I think we're really about using, you know, the promise of technology to unlock human ingenuity and this is a great time to be able to unlock that human ingenuity. >> And that's such a great alignment with Coupa. I was just in the keynote and there was an Accenture video, Julie Sweet was talking to some other folks about that. Great alignment in the partnership. Brian, thank you for joining me talking about composable technology, what's new, why and the potential that organizations and every business have to use it to unlock competitive advantages. >> Brian: Yeah. >> We appreciate your insights and your time. >> You bet. Pleasure to be here. >> All right. With Brian McKillips, I'm Lisa Martin. You're watching theCUBEe from Coupa Inspire 2022. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto, in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Despite the posture from some that big tech generally and Amazon specifically, should be regulated and/or broken apart, recent survey research suggests that Amazon faces many disruption challenges, independent of any government intervention. Specifically, respondents to our recent survey believe that history will repeat itself in that there's a 60% probability that Amazon Inc. will be disrupted by market forces, including self-inflicted wounds. Amazon faces at least seven significant disruption scenarios of varying likelihood and impact, perhaps leading to the conclusion that the government should just let the market adjudicate Amazon Inc's ultimate destiny. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis and ahead of AWS reinvent, we share the results of our survey designed to assess what if anything, could disrupt Amazon specifically, Amazon Inc. not just AWS. Now here's the background of the survey. Recently, in collaboration with author David Mitchell, the cube initiated a community research project to understand one, what scenarios could disrupt Amazon and two, what's the likelihood that each scenario would occur. We developed the scenarios, we tested them in small samples and then refine the questions and launch the survey. Here are the key findings. The survey asked respondents to rate the likelihood of each scenario disrupting Amazon on a scale of 1-10. As we show here, we have inferred that the ratings are a proxy for probability of disruption. And now in the interest of simplicity, we chose not to have respondents evaluate the impact of the disruption, at this time anyway. Here's the ranking by order of likelihood for each scenario. The end in the survey was just under 600 at 597 respondents. On average, across all scenarios, respondents indicate there's a 60% probability that Amazon will be disrupted. By one of, or some combination of these seven scenarios. Now by a notable margin, respondents felt that complacency, I.e a self-inflicted wound or series of wounds would be the most likely disruption scenario for Amazon. Now history in the industry would support this scenario is leadership in the tech business has proven to be transitory. The likelihood of a technological disruption was rated the lowest at 5.5, although some of the open-ended responses suggested that new models of computing could emerge. Look in the mainframe days, sharing resources in a timeshare model was very popular and then that gave way to a model of dedicated centralized infrastructure. The prevailing model then became distributed computing, which has seeded momentum back to a more centralized cloud. It's not inconceivable that with edge computing, the pendulum could swing back again. Now on balance, the remaining scenarios hovered around 60% likelihood individually, but taken all together The combination of these factors, it could be argued, present a multitude of challenges to Amazon Inc. Now, by looking at the distribution of responses, you can see further evidence of potential to disrupt the company. Here are the distribution results for each scenario and the order of the questions that they were presented. First, was government mandated separation, divestment and/or limits on Amazon's cloud computing, retail, media, credit card, and/or in-house product groups. 47% of the respondents believe there's a 70% or better chance of the government disrupting Amazon. Next question was major companies increasingly choose to do their own cloud computing and/or sell their products directly for competitive costs, security, or other reasons. Think of this as do it yourself cloud. That was not as prominent, but still 42% of respondents gave this a 70% chance or better. So think Walmart, the Walmart cloud or the target cloud. Okay, the next question was environmental policies raise, or the next scenario, environmental policies raise costs, change packaging delivery, recycling rules, and/or consumer preferences. If you think about it Amazon, they ship, you know, they order a toothpaste that comes in a box and every little piece you order every little item that you order comes in its own separate package. So environmental policy intervention showed a similar profile as above with a somewhat less likelihood in that 70% plus range. Okay next scenario was price or trade wars with the U.S and/or China create friction with e-commerce giants. So for instance, the China cloud or/and or e-commerce giants and protectionism would start to favor national players. Think again pricing wars, trade wars, you know, with China and others had a similar profile for likelihood as we just showed you earlier. But you know, what if you went, think about this thought exercise? What if you go on the web to order an item and AWS doesn't have it but Alibaba does. You know, maybe that's not such a huge factor at the U.S because really we don't buy directly from Alibaba but certainly outside of the United States particularly in Asia Pacific, it could be a scenario that disrupts Amazon Inc. Okay, the next scenario, major computing innovations, such as quantum edge or machine-to-machine obsolete today's cloud architectures. Tech disruptions ranked the lowest of all of these scenarios presumably because AWS is seen as on the cutting edge technically. So only 36% of respondents felt there was a 70% or better probability of this scenario disrupting Amazon. Next scenario, software replaces, centralized warehouses as delivery services are directly connected to suppliers and factories. Perhaps this is one of the most interesting scenarios I mean, imagine if Google creates software that upon a search, you can then order the item and have it shipped directly to you, no middle person. You know, like an airline ticket actually is today, except now it's physical goods. This direct model would disrupt Amazon's warehouse approach, but as you can see, it didn't really strike the respondents as highly likely. We think it's actually again, one of the more interesting scenarios, and it's certainly being put to the test by, for instance Alibaba, which really doesn't rely on a massive warehouse infrastructure. Now by far, the most likely scenario as rated by their respondents was this one; Complacency, arrogance, blindness, abusive power, loss of trust, consumer and/or employee backlash/boycotts. Think of it as self-inflicted wounds. More than half of the respondents indicated that there's a better than 70% chance that Amazon Inc. would shoot itself in the foot over time. And again, history would suggest this is consistent in the most likely pattern, especially when new executives come in. I mean, you saw this with famous companies at the time, like Wang, Digital, IBM eventually, Intel going through some of the challenges that we see today, Microsoft under bomber. And you know you see these founder led companies like Dell and Oracle they continue to thrive. Salesforce as well but it could be that today's executives and systems are more tuned to longevity, Andy Jassy is a long time Amazonian, Adam Selipsky the new CEO of AWS, he boomeranged back to AWS from Tableau, he's got a deep understanding of the company and its culture. So it's by no means assured that Amazon is going to trip up, However, taken together in combination, these factors suggest that government intervention may not be necessary. Indeed, the history of government breakups and pressure on big tech has been mixed and arguably futile. AT&T, IBM and Microsoft all came under close government scrutiny. and in the case of AT&T, the company was broken up. Generally these actions led to the US companies being less competitive, certainly was the case with AT&T is international telcos became dominant in the market. And in the case of IBM and Microsoft antitrust actions by the government while a distraction, were less a factor in the challenges that these firms ultimately faced and challenges to their leadership then were market disruptions. Think about an IBM unwittingly and famously handed its monopoly power to Intel and Microsoft in the PC era, and Microsoft under Ballmer, yeah kind of hugged onto its windows past and it became much less relevant in the industry until Satya Nadella initiated Microsoft's current hugely successful strategy, on top of the Azure cloud. The point is, despite the saber rattling of governments, history would suggest that market forces will be much more successful in moderating the power of giants like Amazon. We'll leave you with one last thought. At a $64 billion run rate and a 39% growth rate last quarter, AWS is the profit engine of Amazon. AWS accounts for over a hundred percent of Amazon Incs overall operating profit, so it was surprising to us last quarter when the stock dropped kind of precipitously after Amazon Inc. announced its earnings, its retail business underperformed, but AWS blew away expectations. The profit engine, the stock rebounded since then, and many investors saw it as a buying opportunity by the dip. But the point is that AWS is the most critical part of Amazon Inc. in our opinion. It helps fund Amazon's massive capex investment and gives Amazon a platform to enter other industries like payments, and content and groceries and other industries that Amazon wants to disrupt. So if you look at the ETR data across AWS's vast portfolio, The picture is very solid. This chart shows net score or spending momentum for AWS in its businesses comparing three survey snapshots, October 2020, July 21 and October, 2021, that's the yellow bar. Note, the comments from ETR at every sector, AWS spending velocity's up relative to last year. And we certainly saw that in this year's AWS results, accelerating growth with a much larger revenue base across the board and infrastructure, AI data, database analytics, core cloud, everything is up even chime, which is amazing because chime is horrible compared to other tools that you use of that like, but other than that weak spot, AWS is hitting on all cylinders. So what do you think should the government put the shackles on Amazon Inc? Or should it just let the market forces do their thing? Now, by the way we asked respondents, what else could disrupt Amazon, other than these seven scenarios? And we received some pretty interesting open-ended responses that we'll publish for your enjoyment, including my favorite; God could disrupt the Amazon. Okay, that's it for now, thanks to my colleague, David Mitchell for his excellent work on these scenarios. Don't forget these episodes of Braking Analysis, They're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you're got to do is search Braking Analysis podcast. Don't forget to check out ETR's website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, you can get in touch with me directly David.volante@siliconangle.com or you can DM me at @DVellante. You can comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for The Cube Insights, powered by ETR. Have a great week, be safe, be well and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> Despite all the talk about repatriation, hybrid and multi-Cloud opportunities, and Cloud is an increasingly expensive option for customers, the data continues to show the importance of public Cloud to the digital economy. Moreover, the two leaders, AWS and Azure, are showing signs of accelerated momentum that point to those two giants pulling away from the pack in the years ahead, with each firm's showing broad based momentum across their respective product lines. It's unclear if anything, other than government intervention or self-inflicted wounds will slow these two companies down this decade. Despite their commanding lead, a winning strategy for companies that don't run their own Cloud continues to be innovating on top of their massive CapEx investments. The most notable example here being Snowflake. Hello, everyone. Welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we provide our quarterly market share update for the big four hyperscale Cloud providers. And we'll share some new ETR data from their most recent survey. And we'll drill into some of the reasons for the momentum of these two companies and drill further into the database and data warehouse sector to see what, if anything, has changed in that space. First, let's look at some of the noteworthy comments from AWS and Microsoft in their recent earnings updates. We heard from Amazon, the following, "AWS has seen a reacceleration of revenue growth as customers have expanded their commitment to the Cloud and selected AWS as their Cloud partner." Notably, AWS revenues increased 39% in Q3 2021. That's a thousand basis point increase in growth relative to Q3 2020. That's an astounding milestone for a company that we expect to surpass $60 billion in revenue this year. Further, AWS touted the adoption of its custom silicon, and specifically its Graviton2 processors. AWS is fond of emphasizing Graviton's 40% price performance improvements relative to x86 processors, something we've reported on quite extensively. AWS is investing in custom silicon, encouraging ISVs to port their code to the platform so that customers will experience little or no code changes when they migrate. Again, we believe this is a secret weapon for AWS as its cost structure will continue to improve at a rate faster than competitors that don't have the resources or the skills or the stomach to develop such capabilities. Microsoft, for its part, also saw astoundingly good growth of 48% this past quarter for Azure. This is a company that we forecast will approach $40 billion in IaaS and PaaS public Cloud revenue this year. Microsoft's CEO, Satya Nadella, on its earnings call, emphasized the changing nature of Cloud expanding in a distributed fashion to the edge. He referenced Azure as the world's computer. Building on his statements last year that Microsoft is building out a powerful, ubiquitous, intelligent, sensing and predictive Cloud. Yes, folks, it does feel like we're entering the so-called Metaverse, doesn't it? Okay, to underscore the momentum of these two companies, let's take a look at the ETR breakdown of Net score, which measures spending momentum. This chart will be familiar to our listeners. It shows the breakdown of net score for AWS, with the lime green showing new adoptions. That's 11%. The forest green is spending more than 6% relative to the first half of this year. That's a very robust 53%. The gray is flat spending. That's 30% on a very, very large base. And the pink is spending declines of minus 6% or worse. That's 4%. And the bright red is defections i.e those leaving AWS. That's 1%. That's virtually non-existent. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get a net score of 59. Remember, anything over 40, we can still consider to be elevated. Let's look at that same data for Microsoft again. You have some new ads that lime green, that's 7%. The forest green is at 46% of customers spending more, which is an incredible figure for a company with revenues that will in the near term surpass $200 billion. And the red is in the low single digits. Buffered by its enormous PC software profits over the years, Microsoft is powered through its Window's Dogma and transitioned into a Cloud powerhouse. Let's now share some of our latest numbers for the big four hyperscale players, AWS, Azure, Alibaba and Google. Here, we show data for these companies from 2018 and our estimates for 2021. This data includes our final figures for AWS, Azure and GCP for Q3 with Alibaba yet to report. Remember, only AWS and Alibaba report IaaS revenue cleanly with Microsoft and Google, they give us a little breadcrumb nuggets that allow us to triangulate with our survey data and other intelligence. But it's our attempt to do an apples to apples comparison for those four companies using AWS and it's reporting as a baseline. In Q3, AWS reported more than $16 billion in revenue. We estimate Azure at 10 billion, Alibaba, we expect to come in at just under 3 billion, and GCP at 2.5 billion for the quarter. With three quarters of data in, with the exception of Alibaba, we're forecasting AWS to capture 51% of the big four revenue, the hyperscale revenue. And really we believe these are the only four hyperscalers. AWS will surpass 60 billion with Azure just under 40 billion, Alibaba approaching 11 billion, and Google coming in just under 10 billion for the year is our expectation. We forecast these four will account for $120 billion this year. That's a 41% increase over 2020 and the same collective growth rate as 2020 relative to 2019. We expect Azure to be 63% of the size of AWS revenue. So it is gaining share. Both of those companies, however, saw accelerated growth this past quarter with Alibaba and GCP's growth rates decelerating relative to last year. Now, let's take a closer look at those growth rates. This chart shows the quarterly growth rates for each of the four going back to the beginning of 2019. Both GCP and Alibaba are showing dramatic declines in growth rates, whereas, this past quarter Azure saw accelerated growth and AWS has now seen an increased rate of growth for the past two quarters. In fact, AWS' growth is about where it was in 2019 when it was around half of its current revenue size. And in 2019 growth was decelerating through the quarters as you can see where today that trend has reversed. It's quite amazing. All right, let's take a look at the broader Cloud landscape and bring back some ETR data. This chart that we're showing here, it shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share or presence in the dataset on the horizontal axis. Note that red dotted line, anything above that we can still consider elevated and impressive. As when we've previously shared this data, AWS and Microsoft Azure are up and to the right. Now remember, this chart is not just counting IaaS and PaaS as we showed you earlier, it's however the customers views whatever they think Cloud is. And so they're likely including Microsoft SaaS in this picture. Which is why Microsoft shows larger than AWS despite what we showed you earlier. Nonetheless, these two are well ahead of the pack and the growth rates indicate that they're pulling away. But we've added some of the other players, most notably VMware Cloud on AWS. It's showing momentum as is VMware Cloud, which is VMware Cloud foundation and other on-prem Cloud offerings, even though it's below the red line for the on-prem piece, it's very respectable. The VMware Cloud on AWS has been consistently up above that red line. Has popped beneath it in some quarters, but it's very, very strong. As is, you know, Red Hat OpenShift, it's a little bit below the line, but it is respectable. We've superimposed this by the way. Red Hat OpenShift in the ETR platform is under the container orchestration taxonomy, but we'd like to put it in next to the Cloud players for context. That's how Red Hat sort of thinks about this as well. They think about OpenShift as Cloud. And then you can see the other players. Alibaba has got a small sample in the ETR dataset. Just does not enough presence in China. But Dell and HPE have started to show up in the Cloud taxonomy. So buyers are associating their private Clouds with Cloud. So Dell's Apex, HPE's GreenLake. So that's a positive. And you can see Oracle, which of course is OCI, Oracle Cloud infrastructure. And then IBM with its public Cloud. So, it's a positive that these on-prem players are showing up in this data, but the reality is the hyperscalers are growing collectively at 40% annually and the on-prem players are growing in the low single digits. So, and if you carve out the IaaS business of AWS and Azure, they're larger than most of the on-premises infrastructure players. And all the on-prem players are moving toward an as a service model, as I just alluded to. So, undoubtedly, hybrid multicloud edge are going to present opportunities for the likes of Dell, HPE, Cisco, VMware, IBM, Red Hat, et cetera. But they also present opportunities for the public Cloud players who have vibrant ecosystems and marketplaces much more diverse and deep than the traditional vendors. You know, we have a clearer picture of Microsoft's sort of hybrid and edge strategy because the company has such an enormous legacy business, it really had to think about that much more deeply. It wasn't a blank sheet of paper like AWS. It's going to be interesting at reinvent this year if new CEO, Adam Selipsky, will talk about this. And it will be good to hear how he's thinking about the next decade, how AWS thinks about hybrid and edge, I guarantee that with their developer affinity and custom Silicon capabilities, they're thinking about it differently than traditional enterprise players. And as we've stressed in this segment, they have across the board momentum. Now to quantify that, let's take a look at AWS as portfolio in the spending momentum within its product segments. This chart shows AWS's net scores or spending momentum in the areas where AWS participates in the ETR taxonomy. Again, note that red line. Anything above 40% is considered an elevated watermark. We're showing data from last October, this past July and the latest October 21 survey. That yellow line or a bar. What's notable is the yellow versus the gray bars up across the board for the most part, other than chime... And by the way, other than chime, everything is above the 40% mark as well. Now, we've highlighted database because we feel it's one of the most strategic sectors in a real battleground. So we want to drill into that a bit. Here's our familiar X Y graph showing Net score on the Y axis, remember, that's, again, spending momentum and market share or pervasiveness in the survey on the horizontal axis. This data, by the way, includes on-prem and Cloud database data warehouse. So keep that in mind. Let's start with one of our favorite topics; Snowflake. We've reported again and again and again, that we've never seen anything like this. The company's net score has moderated ever so slightly this quarter, but it's still just below 80%. Very highly elevated. Well, above that 40% mark. It's Snowflake's presence continues to grow as a gain share in the market. Snowflake is growing revenue in the triple digits. It's an insane pace, hence its current $115 billion market cap as of this episode. Now that said, all three US-based Cloud players there are above the 40% line with AWS and Microsoft having significant presence on the horizontal axis. You see Cockroach Labs, Redis, Couchbase, they're all elevated or highly elevated. Couchbase just went public this summer. So that may help with its presence. MongoDB, they're killing it. They have a $37 billion market cap as of this episode. The stock has been on a tear. You see MariaDB was also in the mix. And then of course you have Oracle, the database leader. Look, they continue to invest in making the Oracle database and other software like MySQL, the best solution for mission critical workloads, and they're investing in their Cloud. But you can see overall, they just don't have the momentum from a spending standpoint that the others do because the declines in their legacy business. And they've been around a long time. Those declines are not fully offset by the growth in Cloud database and Cloud migration. But look, Oracle is a financial powerhouse with a $250 billion plus market cap. And the stock has done very well this past year. Up over 60%. Cloudera is going private. So it can hide the pain of the transitions that it's undergoing between the legacy install bases of Cloudera and Hortonworks. It's just a tough situation. When the companies came together, Cloudera essentially had a dead end. Each of those respective platforms and migrate their customers to a more modern stack as part of its Cloud strategy. Ironic that it's name is Cloudera. You know, that's always a difficult thing to do. So as a private company, Cloudera can maybe get off that 90 day shot clock and buy some time to invest without getting hammered by the street. And you know, Teradata consistently has not shown up well in the ETR dataset. It's transitioned to Cloud and cross-Cloud still hasn't shown momentum in the surveys. So, look right now, it's looking like the rich get richer. So just to quantify that a little bit, let's line up some of the database players and look a little bit more closely at net score. This chart shows the spending momentum or lack thereof with the net score or spending velocity granularity that we described before. Remember, green is spending more, red is spending less, bright red is leaving the platform, bright green is adding the platform. You take red, subtract red from the green, and that gives you a net score. Snowflake, as we said, tops the list. You can see the granularity there. You can compare the performance. In a little different view to understand how these scores are derived, look, the ideal profile is a solid lime green, a big forest green, a not too large gray and ideally little or no bright red AKA defections. And you can see the green funnel in the gray increasing prominence as the vendor momentum declines. Interestingly, with the exception of Cloudera and Teradata, defections are all in the single digits or nonexistent. In the case of Snowflake, Redis, red is no red at all, but small sample, Couchbase has no defections and very little defection for the giant Microsoft. Incredibly impressive. This speaks to how hard it is to migrate off of a database no matter how disgruntled you are. The more common scenario is to isolate the database and build new functionality on modern platforms. Okay, so what to watch out for. Well, reinvent this coming up next month. Oh this month. It's the first time someone other than Andy Jassy will be keynoting as CEO. 15 years of Cloud, this is the 10th re-invent, which is always a market for the direction of the industry. I've said many times that the last decade was largely about IT transformation powered by the Cloud. I believe we're entering a new era of business transformation where the Cloud is going to play a significant role. But the Cloud is evolving from a set of remote services out there in the Cloud to an omnipresent platform on top of which many customers and technology companies can innovate. And virtually every industry will be impacted by Cloud. However it evolves in the coming decade. The question will be, how fast can you go? And how will players like AWS and Microsoft and many others that are building on top of these platforms make it easier for you to go fast? That's what I'll be watching for at re-invent and beyond. Okay, that's a wrap for today. Remember, these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcasts. Check out ETR's website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me, david.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me @dvellante or comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, everybody. Stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. We'll see you at re-invent. (soft upbeat music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante recent earnings reports from key enterprise software and infrastructure players underscore that tech spending remains robust in the post isolation economy especially for those companies that have figured out a cloud strategy now despite covert variant uncertainties and component shortages and hardware most leading tech names outperformed expectations this past week that said investors were not in the mood to reward all names and any variability in product mix or earnings outlook or other nuances were met with a tepid response from the street hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll provide you with commentary and data points on key tech companies that announced this past week including snowflake salesforce workday splunk elastic palo alto networks vmware dell pure storage hp inc and netapp let's start by rolling back a week or so and look at how stocks that are priced to perfection get impacted by any negative news back on august 20th we saw this headline hit snowflake stock falls as analyst says signings growth has slowed the analyst report was put out by a boutique firm cleveland research the stock took a double-digit hit as you can see here i immediately got several texts from investors who know i follow the company asking me what i thought now as a disclaimer i don't give stock picking advice please do your own research but between the cube wikibon and etr we do see a lot of data and i'm happy to share that which i did with this tweet it said lots of talk ahead of snowflake's earnings some analysts have said their data suggests a slowdown etr data looks pretty encouraging and i tagged merv adrian he's a sharp analyst over at gartner who follows data and database he responded i don't speculate about revenues but there's no discernible shift in our client conversations though interest still seems high okay cool but let's let's dig into the etr data a bit and see why we remained positive this is a larger and more detailed version of the chart in the tweet it's a candlestick that shows a time series of the spending data on snowflake using etr's net score methodology the stacked bars represent the percent of customers in the survey that are newly adding the snowflake platform the forest green indicates the number of customers reporting that their spending is increasing by six percent or more the gray is flat spend that's plus or minus five percent the pinkish stack that's decreasing spend by six percent or more and the bright red is where chucking the platform we're leaving now you subtract the reds from the greens and that yields a net score which for snowflake last survey was a very elevated 81.3 percent we've highlighted the spending velocity line that's net score at the top put a picture of that blue line for snowflake in your mind because we're going to come back to it the yellow line down below is market share which is a measure of the pervasiveness in the survey i.e mention share if you will so looking at this chart one might conclude that the lime green i.e new account acquisition is compressing however in further analyzing the data back in january 2019 snowflake's presence in the survey was much lower only 35 accounts in subsequent quarters that number has jumped to over between 120 and 140 snowflake accounts so big much bigger n so while the percentage of respondents may be shrinking the absolute number of new accounts is growing on the snowflake earnings call snowflake said that new customers increased this past quarter to 458 up from 397 in the same period last year what's also telling is the forest green on its very first earnings call as a public company snowflake cfo mike scarpelli said very clearly the company's revenue growth in the near term will come from existing customers and the forest green i.e existing customers spending more is expanding in the etr survey so very strong confirmation of that trend and note the red is virtually non-existent for snowflake so it's no surprise that snowflake handily beat its earnings on the 25th of august which prompted a flurry of texts to me saying you were right thanks don't thank me do your own research we're just one data source okay so here's a snapshot of some of the major players that announced earnings this past week this chart is our popular xy view with net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share or pervasiveness in the survey in the horizontal plane we talked about snowflake already but i'll emphasize they've held that roughly eighty percent net score for ten plus quarterly surveys now and they've continued to move steadily to the right on the horizontal axis let's make some comments on these other names and then dig in a bit more salesforce of course they're the big player amongst these names that we're showing and as we've said in previous breaking analysis segments they have become the next great software company showing 20 plus growth for five consecutive quarters which is quite impressive splunk as we've reported has struggled in the survey but you can see splunk has a great presence in the data set they have an awesome customer base and the acquisition of signal fx plotted on the left with an elevated next net score represents a really good opportunity to enter new markets like observability and pull signalfx to the right to the rest of splunk's customers and that can help accelerate splunk's move toward a subscription model then there's workday we're plotting the company's core hcm business as well as its emerging financial software suite the latter represents workday's tam expansion opportunity and the company appears to be back on track to show sustained growth now let's dig a little deeper into these names and we'll start with salesforce here's the etr spending profile for salesforce salesforce as we showed earlier has a huge and growing presence in the market and a consistently elevated net score in the etr data and while the chart shows much more green than red and a strong uptick in spending momentum from last october survey this doesn't really tell the whole story salesforce's stock price rocketed out of the march 2020 crash and ran up to a peak last august and is on its way back salesforce has made a number of strategic acquisitions including tableau slack mulesoft and several other billion dollar plus buys as well as a number of smaller acquisitions this past quarter saw 23 revenue growth relative to last year with 20 percent plus operating margins that's huge salesforce's acquisition strategy is beginning to demonstrate the company's promised operating leverage and slack in our view will only add to that benefit including continuous improvement and free cash flow sales force revenue will blow through 25 billion dollars this fiscal year it's a company with a 250 billion dollar market cap and appears to be one a name that has meaningful upside opportunity okay let's take a quick look at splunk we're finally seeing an uptick in splunk's spending momentum with within the etr data set eric bradley and i have discussed this in previous breaking analysis segments the key point as we've reported is we see splunk as a company that has been in transition from a traditional license to an arr subscription model and finally the company is showing clarity that there's light at the end of that tunnel investors don't like companies in transition and like salesforce splunk's stock price ran up to an all-time high last august but then came down hard and never fully recovered but it has come off its may lows and there were some real positives this past quarter cloud annual recurring revenue for splunk this past quarter grew 72 percent and its bookings grew 20 29 year on year the company was conservative in its guidance and there still seems to be some uncertainty around cash flow but more clear guidance by splunk on the top line is a welcome sign and now another name that we've been following that announced earnings this week is elastic and as you can see by the etr data that company has an elevated net score with very little red in the bars now note that blue line while it's slowly decelerating it remains very strong and elevated remember the comment earlier i made about freezing that snowflake blue line in your head the reason we said that is because for snowflake to hold its roughly 80 net score position firmly over the past 10 plus quarters is quite astounding and for the most part it's unprecedented in the etr data set in recent memory back to elastic the company grew its top line by 45 which is a healthy beat and that helped operating margins come in above expectations elastic has become the open source poster child for observability but customers often cite challenges related to complexity and scaling with the need often to seek professional services help which sometimes impacts adoption and cost obviously but overall very strong report especially in its cloud business which grew 89 relative to last year all right let's pivot to infrastructure we're going to do that with palo alto networks and then look at a broader more traditional hardware and software players in february of 2020 we reported the valuation of divergence between palo alto networks and fortinet and we cited the challenges that palo alto was having around its shift to cloud that was a clear headwind at the time especially with regard to some of its go to market challenges at the same time we said that we were confident that palo alto would work through these issues and the csos from the etr panels along with other anecdotal information from the cube community suggested that the company would power through these problems well it has palo alto has a huge presence in the market and consistently elevated net scores as you can see here palo alto stock is trading near all-time highs and it reacted very well to its uh to the earnings report this past week where revenue grew nicely at 20 28 year on year the company has consistently impressed despite some hiccups of the past and appears to be well positioned for the emerging hybrid work economy okay now let's take a look at some of the key infrastructure players that announced this past week this chart shows our popular xy view with netscore spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share and or pervasiveness on the horizontal axis we'll start with vmware it has the biggest presence in the market amongst these names vmware's revenue grew nine percent in the quarter which was in line with estimates the company had a solid quarter but only marginally beat expectations and the stock got hit hard it was down 8 percent midday on friday vmware cited stronger than expected perpetual license sales and somewhat softer sas subscription revenue now it's not surprising that we're going to see some lumpiness in those two lines as the company transitions to a subscription model but investors clearly want to see more growth in sas and subscriptions than they do in the traditional perpetual license model vmware cloud on aws grew 80 and that's confirmed in the data here compute was also strong one concern in the etr data is the vmware cloud which is the the core the vm vmr cloud foundation vcf which you can see here is well off its january net score highs now it's possible the etr is picking up some of the conservative clients that don't want to move to an ar or subscription model it's unclear but we'll continue to watch that trend overall vmware's business model is solid in our view and very very strong now let's talk about dell next dell in our view had a great quarter it grew top-line revenues by 15 year-on-year its client business grew 27 percent and you can see the elevated dell laptop net net scores in this chart the isg business was up three percent that comprises service and networking which was up six percent and storage which was off one percent the storage business contin continues to struggle but management reported that its mid-range storage revenue was up 17 now the challenge here is that high-end storage it's cyclical it's exposed sometimes you know somewhat to mainframe cycles but but but but the other thing is that a lot of the mid-range capability is eating away at the high end not the least which by the way is is pure storage competing at the higher end but also dell's own mid-range business so that continues to be a drag on revenue the the size of the traditional high-end business that that v-max power max business still is is is quite large and the the new is not growing fast enough to offset the decline in in the old but i mean i saw these numbers from dell i was surprised to see the stock down nearly five percent at midday on friday and i think what's happening is a couple things one is that hpq hp inc which we show here at a lower net score than dell's laptop business cited supply chain issues and component shortages now dell cited the same but maybe it's off on sympathy it's clear to us that dell is doing a much better job than hp with regard to managing component shortages the frustrating thing for these companies is it might be a 50 part holding up a server or in dell's case or a laptop in dell and hpq's case but demand is good which is a positive but the biggest factor in dell stock price we think is it's getting dragged down with vmware in a way if you think about it with vmware's value comprising so much of dell's market cap being down only four percent while vmware is down eight percent implies that the core dell business is viewed positively by the street but i thought with the vmware spin coming later this year investors might gravitate more aggressively toward dell but that didn't happen maybe over time now you see netapp on the chart netapp beat on top line revenue and earnings this past quarter however the company has not performed well in the etr surveys for several quarters and has a negative net score this is due when you tear apart the the math this is due to a low number of new adoptions and a fat middle very big fat middle of flat spending and a pretty high churn in the data set now the company claims they've picked up 1500 new customers in its cloud business so maybe maybe the etr survey is not picking that up or perhaps it's existing customers that are moving to netapp's cloud service that they're counting as new that's unclear but netapp claims that its public cloud business grew 155 in the quarter regardless the street likes netapp's story the stock has been acting very well this year out passing outpacing the s p 500. now you also see pure on the chart with a nicely elevated net score the company beat top and bottom lines this quarter and its ceo charlie giancarlo promised roughly 20 percent revenue growth going forward the street sure liked that that story and the stock shot up nearly 20 percent on that news and you can see here a little drill down the etr spending data trends in the right direction for pure to support this momentum pure's messaging is all around a modern data platform and it's clear from customer conversations that its storage products are easier to use than traditional storage offerings and it has a leg up on the as a service trend which we've been reporting on which pure has been pursuing for a number of years but it's still a much smaller player a couple billion dollars than the dells and the netapps of the storage world but if it can continue on a strong growth trajectory it will of course become a larger custom company the question will be how to continue to expand its total available market now the obvious path has been share gains which over the years it has accomplished and has served them well but that won't be as easy as it was last decade when pure caught emc and netapp flat-footed without strong flash array strategies pure's port works acquisition is something to watch as well as it tries to transition the market to a true cloud-like program programmable infrastructure model infrastructure as code and we'll leave you with this thought about the infrastructure space generally in storage specifically while cloud storage has exploded over the past several years on-prem storage has been extremely soft this in our view has been due to the double whammy that we've reported the combination of cloud stealing share from on-prem and the big flash injection in other words the latter suppressed the need to buy more spinning spindles and controllers for better performance and it hurt demand you don't need to do that when you have all this flash headroom but as we predicted last year we believe that there's pent up demand as people go back to work and headquarters need refresh there's only so much blood that it managers can squeeze from the stone moving storage around optimizing servers and and improving things like utilization while at the same time maintaining adequate performance and doing so within some kind of reasonable window of a day storage is no longer monolithic there are emerging use cases especially ones that are data intensive different storage types are emerging as satya nadella said recently we've reached peak centralization and as such that will create tailwinds for storage offerings that can accommodate cloud and on-prem because it pros understand that moving data is expensive and risky it's best to keep data where it belongs for reasons of performance and of course compliance so it looks like there's a decent chance that the long storage winter is over and the market could return to solid growth even the face of a continued cloud explosion now to circle back quickly to the enterprise software business there seems to be no end in sight to the shift to cloud-based offerings both sas and snowflake-like consumption models of which we're big believers digital transformation initiatives are real they're meaningful and software spending we believe is going to be robust and power these transformations for quite some time okay that's it for today remember these episodes are all available as podcasts all you got to do is search breaking analysis podcast we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can reach me at divalante on twitter or my linkedin posts or email me at david.vellante siliconangle.com please do check check out the etr website at etr.plus and see their new data packages and offerings for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr thanks for watching everybody be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Moore's Law is dead, right? Think again. Massive improvements in processing power combined with data and AI will completely change the way we think about designing hardware, writing software and applying technology to businesses. Every industry will be disrupted. You hear that all the time. Well, it's absolutely true and we're going to explain why and what it all means. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're going to unveil some new data that suggests we're entering a new era of innovation that will be powered by cheap processing capabilities that AI will exploit. We'll also tell you where the new bottlenecks will emerge and what this means for system architectures and industry transformations in the coming decade. Moore's Law is dead, you say? We must have heard that hundreds, if not, thousands of times in the past decade. EE Times has written about it, MIT Technology Review, CNET, and even industry associations that have lived by Moore's Law. But our friend Patrick Moorhead got it right when he said, "Moore's Law, by the strictest definition of doubling chip densities every two years, isn't happening anymore." And you know what, that's true. He's absolutely correct. And he couched that statement by saying by the strict definition. And he did that for a reason, because he's smart enough to know that the chip industry are masters at doing work arounds. Here's proof that the death of Moore's Law by its strictest definition is largely irrelevant. My colleague, David Foyer and I were hard at work this week and here's the result. The fact is that the historical outcome of Moore's Law is actually accelerating and in quite dramatically. This graphic digs into the progression of Apple's SoC, system on chip developments from the A9 and culminating with the A14, 15 nanometer bionic system on a chip. The vertical axis shows operations per second and the horizontal axis shows time for three processor types. The CPU which we measure here in terahertz, that's the blue line which you can't even hardly see, the GPU which is the orange that's measured in trillions of floating point operations per second and then the NPU, the neural processing unit and that's measured in trillions of operations per second which is that exploding gray area. Now, historically, we always rushed out to buy the latest and greatest PC, because the newer models had faster cycles or more gigahertz. Moore's Law would double that performance every 24 months. Now that equates to about 40% annually. CPU performance is now moderated. That growth is now down to roughly 30% annual improvements. So technically speaking, Moore's Law as we know it was dead. But combined, if you look at the improvements in Apple's SoC since 2015, they've been on a pace that's higher than 118% annually. And it's even higher than that, because the actual figure for these three processor types we're not even counting the impact of DSPs and accelerator components of Apple system on a chip. It would push this even higher. Apple's A14 which is shown in the right hand side here is quite amazing. It's got a 64 bit architecture, it's got many, many cores. It's got a number of alternative processor types. But the important thing is what you can do with all this processing power. In an iPhone, the types of AI that we show here that continue to evolve, facial recognition, speech, natural language processing, rendering videos, helping the hearing impaired and eventually bringing augmented reality to the palm of your hand. It's quite incredible. So what does this mean for other parts of the IT stack? Well, we recently reported Satya Nadella's epic quote that "We've now reached peak centralization." So this graphic paints a picture that was quite telling. We just shared the processing powers exploding. The costs consequently are dropping like a rock. Apple's A14 cost the company approximately 50 bucks per chip. Arm at its v9 announcement said that it will have chips that can go into refrigerators. These chips are going to optimize energy usage and save 10% annually on your power consumption. They said, this chip will cost a buck, a dollar to shave 10% of your refrigerator electricity bill. It's just astounding. But look at where the expensive bottlenecks are, it's networks and it's storage. So what does this mean? Well, it means the processing is going to get pushed to the edge, i.e., wherever the data is born. Storage and networking are going to become increasingly distributed and decentralized. Now with custom silicon and all that processing power placed throughout the system, an AI is going to be embedded into software, into hardware and it's going to optimize a workloads for latency, performance, bandwidth, and security. And remember, most of that data, 99% is going to stay at the edge. And we love to use Tesla as an example. The vast majority of data that a Tesla car creates is never going to go back to the cloud. Most of it doesn't even get persisted. I think Tesla saves like five minutes of data. But some data will connect occasionally back to the cloud to train AI models and we're going to come back to that. But this picture says if you're a hardware company, you'd better start thinking about how to take advantage of that blue line that's exploding, Cisco. Cisco is already designing its own chips. But Dell, HPE, who kind of does maybe used to do a lot of its own custom silicon, but Pure Storage, NetApp, I mean, the list goes on and on and on either you're going to get start designing custom silicon or you're going to get disrupted in our view. AWS, Google and Microsoft are all doing it for a reason as is IBM and to Sarbjeet Johal said recently this is not your grandfather's semiconductor business. And if you're a software engineer, you're going to be writing applications that take advantage of all the data being collected and bringing to bear this processing power that we're talking about to create new capabilities like we've never seen it before. So let's get into that a little bit and dig into AI. You can think of AI as the superset. Just as an aside, interestingly in his book, "Seeing Digital", author David Moschella says, there's nothing artificial about this. He uses the term machine intelligence, instead of artificial intelligence and says that there's nothing artificial about machine intelligence just like there's nothing artificial about the strength of a tractor. It's a nuance, but it's kind of interesting, nonetheless, words matter. We hear a lot about machine learning and deep learning and think of them as subsets of AI. Machine learning applies algorithms and code to data to get "smarter", make better models, for example, that can lead to augmented intelligence and help humans make better decisions. These models improve as they get more data and are iterated over time. Now deep learning is a more advanced type of machine learning. It uses more complex math. But the point that we want to make here is that today much of the activity in AI is around building and training models. And this is mostly happening in the cloud. But we think AI inference will bring the most exciting innovations in the coming years. Inference is the deployment of that model that we were just talking about, taking real time data from sensors, processing that data locally and then applying that training that has been developed in the cloud and making micro adjustments in real time. So let's take an example. Again, we love Tesla examples. Think about an algorithm that optimizes the performance and safety of a car on a turn, the model take data on friction, road condition, angles of the tires, the tire wear, the tire pressure, all this data, and it keeps testing and iterating, testing and iterating, testing iterating that model until it's ready to be deployed. And then the intelligence, all this intelligence goes into an inference engine which is a chip that goes into a car and gets data from sensors and makes these micro adjustments in real time on steering and braking and the like. Now, as you said before, Tesla persist the data for very short time, because there's so much of it. It just can't push it back to the cloud. But it can now ever selectively store certain data if it needs to, and then send back that data to the cloud to further train them all. Let's say for instance, an animal runs into the road during slick conditions, Tesla wants to grab that data, because they notice that there's a lot of accidents in New England in certain months. And maybe Tesla takes that snapshot and sends it back to the cloud and combines it with other data and maybe other parts of the country or other regions of New England and it perfects that model further to improve safety. This is just one example of thousands and thousands that are going to further develop in the coming decade. I want to talk about how we see this evolving over time. Inference is where we think the value is. That's where the rubber meets the road, so to speak, based on the previous example. Now this conceptual chart shows the percent of spend over time on modeling versus inference. And you can see some of the applications that get attention today and how these applications will mature over time as inference becomes more and more mainstream, the opportunities for AI inference at the edge and in IOT are enormous. And we think that over time, 95% of that spending is going to go to inference where it's probably only 5% today. Now today's modeling workloads are pretty prevalent and things like fraud, adtech, weather, pricing, recommendation engines, and those kinds of things, and now those will keep getting better and better and better over time. Now in the middle here, we show the industries which are all going to be transformed by these trends. Now, one of the point that Moschella had made in his book, he kind of explains why historically vertically industries are pretty stovepiped, they have their own stack, sales and marketing and engineering and supply chains, et cetera, and experts within those industries tend to stay within those industries and they're largely insulated from disruption from other industries, maybe unless they were part of a supply chain. But today, you see all kinds of cross industry activity. Amazon entering grocery, entering media. Apple in finance and potentially getting into EV. Tesla, eyeing insurance. There are many, many, many examples of tech giants who are crossing traditional industry boundaries. And the reason is because of data. They have the data. And they're applying machine intelligence to that data and improving. Auto manufacturers, for example, over time they're going to have better data than insurance companies. DeFi, decentralized finance platforms going to use the blockchain and they're continuing to improve. Blockchain today is not great performance, it's very overhead intensive all that encryption. But as they take advantage of this new processing power and better software and AI, it could very well disrupt traditional payment systems. And again, so many examples here. But what I want to do now is dig into enterprise AI a bit. And just a quick reminder, we showed this last week in our Armv9 post. This is data from ETR. The vertical axis is net score. That's a measure of spending momentum. The horizontal axis is market share or pervasiveness in the dataset. The red line at 40% is like a subjective anchor that we use. Anything above 40% we think is really good. Machine learning and AI is the number one area of spending velocity and has been for awhile. RPA is right there. Very frankly, it's an adjacency to AI and you could even argue. So it's cloud where all the ML action is taking place today. But that will change, we think, as we just described, because data's going to get pushed to the edge. And this chart will show you some of the vendors in that space. These are the companies that CIOs and IT buyers associate with their AI and machine learning spend. So it's the same XY graph, spending velocity by market share on the horizontal axis. Microsoft, AWS, Google, of course, the big cloud guys they dominate AI and machine learning. Facebook's not on here. Facebook's got great AI as well, but it's not enterprise tech spending. These cloud companies they have the tooling, they have the data, they have the scale and as we said, lots of modeling is going on today, but this is going to increasingly be pushed into remote AI inference engines that will have massive processing capabilities collectively. So we're moving away from that peak centralization as Satya Nadella described. You see Databricks on here. They're seen as an AI leader. SparkCognition, they're off the charts, literally, in the upper left. They have extremely high net score albeit with a small sample. They apply machine learning to massive data sets. DataRobot does automated AI. They're super high in the y-axis. Dataiku, they help create machine learning based apps. C3.ai, you're hearing a lot more about them. Tom Siebel's involved in that company. It's an enterprise AI firm, hear a lot of ads now doing AI and responsible way really kind of enterprise AI that's sort of always been IBM. IBM Watson's calling card. There's SAP with Leonardo. Salesforce with Einstein. Again, IBM Watson is right there just at the 40% line. You see Oracle is there as well. They're embedding automated and tele or machine intelligence with their self-driving database they call it that sort of machine intelligence in the database. You see Adobe there. So a lot of typical enterprise company names. And the point is that these software companies they're all embedding AI into their offerings. So if you're an incumbent company and you're trying not to get disrupted, the good news is you can buy AI from these software companies. You don't have to build it. You don't have to be an expert at AI. The hard part is going to be how and where to apply AI. And the simplest answer there is follow the data. There's so much more to the story, but we just have to leave it there for now and I want to summarize. We have been pounding the table that the post x86 era is here. It's a function of volume. Arm volumes are a way for volumes are 10X those of x86. Pat Gelsinger understands this. That's why he made that big announcement. He's trying to transform the company. The importance of volume in terms of lowering the cost of semiconductors it can't be understated. And today, we've quantified something that we haven't really seen much of and really haven't seen before. And that's that the actual performance improvements that we're seeing in processing today are far outstripping anything we've seen before, forget Moore's Law being dead that's irrelevant. The original finding is being blown away this decade and who knows with quantum computing what the future holds. This is a fundamental enabler of AI applications. And this is most often the case the innovation is coming from the consumer use cases first. Apple continues to lead the way. And Apple's integrated hardware and software model we think increasingly is going to move into the enterprise mindset. Clearly the cloud vendors are moving in this direction, building their own custom silicon and doing really that deep integration. You see this with Oracle who kind of really a good example of the iPhone for the enterprise, if you will. It just makes sense that optimizing hardware and software together is going to gain momentum, because there's so much opportunity for customization in chips as we discussed last week with Arm's announcement, especially with the diversity of edge use cases. And it's the direction that Pat Gelsinger is taking Intel trying to provide more flexibility. One aside, Pat Gelsinger he may face massive challenges that we laid out a couple of posts ago with our Intel breaking analysis, but he is right on in our view that semiconductor demand is increasing. There's no end in sight. We don't think we're going to see these ebbs and flows as we've seen in the past that these boom and bust cycles for semiconductor. We just think that prices are coming down. The market's elastic and the market is absolutely exploding with huge demand for fab capacity. Now, if you're an enterprise, you should not stress about and trying to invent AI, rather you should put your focus on understanding what data gives you competitive advantage and how to apply machine intelligence and AI to win. You're going to be buying, not building AI and you're going to be applying it. Now data as John Furrier has said in the past is becoming the new development kit. He said that 10 years ago and he seems right. Finally, if you're an enterprise hardware player, you're going to be designing your own chips and writing more software to exploit AI. You'll be embedding custom silicon in AI throughout your product portfolio and storage and networking and you'll be increasingly bringing compute to the data. And that data will mostly stay where it's created. Again, systems and storage and networking stacks they're all being completely re-imagined. If you're a software developer, you now have processing capabilities in the palm of your hand that are incredible. And you're going to rewriting new applications to take advantage of this and use AI to change the world, literally. You'll have to figure out how to get access to the most relevant data. You have to figure out how to secure your platforms and innovate. And if you're a services company, your opportunity is to help customers that are trying not to get disrupted are many. You have the deep industry expertise and horizontal technology chops to help customers survive and thrive. Privacy? AI for good? Yeah well, that's a whole another topic. I think for now, we have to get a better understanding of how far AI can go before we determine how far it should go. Look, protecting our personal data and privacy should definitely be something that we're concerned about and we should protect. But generally, I'd rather not stifle innovation at this point. I'd be interested in what you think about that. Okay. That's it for today. Thanks to David Foyer, who helped me with this segment again and did a lot of the charts and the data behind this. He's done some great work there. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen, just search breaking it analysis podcast and please subscribe to the series. We'd appreciate that. Check out ETR's website at ETR.plus. We also publish a full report with more detail every week on Wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, so check that out. You can get in touch with me. I'm dave.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me on Twitter @dvellante or comment on our LinkedIn posts. I always appreciate that. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (bright music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Braking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Intel's big announcement this week underscores the threat that the United States faces from China. The US needs to lead in semiconductor design and manufacturing. And that lead is slipping because Intel has been fumbling the ball over the past several years, a mere two months into the job, new CEO Pat Gelsinger wasted no time in setting a new course for perhaps, the most strategically important American technology company. We believe that Gelsinger has only shown us part of his plan. This is the beginning of a long and highly complex journey. Despite Gelsinger's clear vision, his deep understanding of technology and execution ethos, in order to regain its number one position, Intel we believe we'll need to have help from partners, competitors and very importantly, the US government. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis we'll peel the onion Intel's announcement of this week and explain why we're perhaps not as sanguine as was Wall Street on Intel's prospects. And we'll lay out what we think needs to take place for Intel to once again, become top gun and for us to gain more confidence. By the way this is the first time we're broadcasting live with Braking Analysis. We're broadcasting on the CUBE handles on Twitch, Periscope and YouTube and going forward we'll do this regularly as a live program and we'll bring in the community perspective into the conversation through chat. Now you may recall that in January, we kind of dismissed analysis that said Intel didn't have to make any major strategic changes to its business when they brought on Pat Gelsinger. Rather we said the exact opposite. Our view at time was that the root of Intel's problems could be traced to the fact that it wasn't no longer the volume leader. Because mobile volumes dwarf those of x86. As such we said that Intel couldn't go up the learning curve for next gen technologies as fast as its competitors and it needed to shed its dogma of being highly vertically integrated. We said Intel needed to more heavily leverage outsourced foundries. But more specifically, we suggested that in order for Intel to regain its volume lead, it needed to, we said at the time, spin out its manufacturing, create a joint venture sure with a volume leader, leveraging Intel's US manufacturing presence. This, we still believe with some slight refreshes to our thinking based on what Gelsinger has announced. And we'll talk about that today. Now specifically there were three main pieces and a lot of details to Intel's announcement. Gelsinger made it clear that Intel is not giving up its IDM or integrated device manufacturing ethos. He called this IDM 2.0, which comprises Intel's internal manufacturing, leveraging external Foundries and creating a new business unit called Intel Foundry Services. It's okay. Gelsinger said, "We are not giving up on integrated manufacturing." However, we think this is somewhat nuanced. Clearly Intel can't, won't and shouldn't give up on IDM. However, we believe Intel is entering a new era where it's giving designers more choice. This was not explicitly stated. However we feel like Intel's internal manufacturing arm will have increased pressure to serve its designers in a more competitive manner. We've already seen this with Intel finally embracing EUV or extreme ultraviolet lithography. Gelsinger basically said that Intel didn't lean into EUV early on and that it created more complexity in its 10 nanometer process, which dominoed into seven nanometer and as you know the rest of the story and Intel's delays. But since mid last year, it's embraced the technology. Now as a point of reference, Samsung started applying EUV for its seven nanometer technology in 2018. And it began shipping in early 2020. So as you can see, it takes years to get this technology into volume production. The point is that Intel realizes it needs to be more competitive. And we suspect, it will give more freedom to designers to leverage outsource manufacturing. But Gelsinger clearly signaled that IDM is not going away. But the really big news is that Intel is setting up a new division with a separate PNL that's going to report directly to Pat. Essentially it's hanging out a shingle and saying, we're open for business to make your chips. Intel is building two new Fabs in Arizona and investing $20 billion as part of this initiative. Now well Intel has tried this before earlier last decade. Gelsinger says that this time we're serious and we're going to do it right. We'll come back to that. This organizational move while not a spin out or a joint venture, it's part of the recipe that we saw as necessary for Intel to be more competitive. Let's talk about why Intel is doing this. Look at lots has changed in the world of semiconductors. When you think about it back when Pat was at Intel in the '90s, Intel was the volume leader. It crushed the competition with x86. And the competition at the time was coming from risk chips. And when Apple changed the game with iPod and iPhone and iPad, the volume equation flipped to mobile. And that led to big changes in the industry. Specifically, the world started to separate design from manufacturing. We now see firms going from design to tape out in 12 months versus taking three years. A good example is Tesla and his deal with ARM and Samsung. And what's happened is Intel has gone from number one in Foundry in terms of clock speed, wafer density, volume, lowest cost, highest margin to falling behind. TSMC, Samsung and alternative processor competitors like NVIDIA. Volume is still the maker of kings in this business. That hasn't changed and it confers advantage in terms of cost, speed and efficiency. But ARM wafer volumes, we estimate are 10x those of x86. That's a big change since Pat left Intel more than a decade ago. There's also a major chip shortage today. But you know this time, it feels a little different than the typical semiconductor boom and bust cycles. Semiconductor consumption is entering a new era and new use cases emerging from automobiles to factories, to every imaginable device piece of equipment, infrastructure, silicon is everywhere. But the biggest threat of all is China. China wants to be self-sufficient in semiconductors by 2025. It's putting approximately $60 billion into new chip Fabs, and there's more to come. China wants to be the new economic leader of the world and semiconductors are critical to that goal. Now there are those poopoo the China threat. This recent article from Scott Foster lays out some really good information. But the one thing that caught our attention is a statement that China's semiconductor industry is nowhere near being a major competitor in the global market. Let alone an existential threat to the international order and the American way of life. I think Scotty is stuck in the engine room and can't see the forest of the trees, wake up. Sure. You can say China is way behind. Let's take an example. NAND. Today China is at about 64 3D layers whereas Micron they're at 172. By 2022 China's going to be at 128. Micron, it's going to be well over 200. So what's the big deal? We say talk to us in 2025 because we think China will be at parody. That's just one example. Now the type of thinking that says don't worry about China and semi's reminds me of the epic lecture series that Clay Christiansen gave as a visiting professor at Oxford University on the history of, and the economics of the steel industry. Now if you haven't watched this series, you should. Basically Christiansen took the audience through the dynamics of steel production. And he asked the question, "Who told the steel manufacturers that gross margin was the number one measure of profitability? Was it God?" he joked. His point was, when new entrance came into the market in the '70s, they were bottom feeders going after the low margin, low quality, easiest to make rebar sector. And the incumbents nearly pulled back and their mix shifted to higher margin products and their gross margins went up and life was good. Until they lost the next layer. And then the next, and then the next, until it was game over. Now, one of the things that got lost in Pat's big announcement on the 23rd of March was that Intel guided the street below consensus on revenue and earnings. But the stock went up the next day. Now when asked about gross margin in the Q&A segment of the announcement, yes, gross margin is a if not the key metric in semi's in terms of measuring profitability. When asked Intel CFO George Davis explained that with the uptick in PCs last year there was a product shift to the lower margin PC sector and that put pressure on gross margins. It was a product mix thing. And revenue because PC chips are less expensive than server chips was affected as were margins. Now we shared this chart in our last Intel update showing, spending momentum over time for Dell's laptop business from ETR. And you can see in the inset, the unit growth and the market data from IDC, yes, Dell's laptop business is growing, everybody's laptop business is growing. Thank you COVID. But you see the numbers from IDC, Gartner, et cetera. Now, as we pointed out last time, PC volumes had peaked in 2011 and that's when the long arm of rights law began to eat into Intel's dominance. Today ARM wafer production as we said is far greater than Intel's and well, you know the story. Here's the irony, the very bucket that conferred volume adventures to Intel PCs, yes, it had a slight uptick last year, which was great news for Dell. But according to Intel it pulled down its margins. The point is Intel is loving the high end of the market because it's higher margin and more profitable. I wonder what Clay Christensen would say to that. Now there's more to this story. Intel's CFO blame the supply constraints on Intel's revenue and profit pressures yet AMD's revenue and profits are booming. So RTSMCs. Only Intel can't seem to thrive when there's this massive chip shortage. Now let's get back to Pat's announcement. Intel is for sure, going forward investing $20 billion in two new US-based fabrication facilities. This chart shows Intel's investments in US R&D, US CapEx and the job growth that's created as a result, as well as R&D and CapEx investments in Ireland and Israel. Now we added the bar on the right hand side from a Wall Street journal article that compares TSMC CapEx in the dark green to that of Intel and the light green. You can see TSMC surpass the CapEx investment of Intel in 2015, and then Intel took the lead back again. And in 2017 was, hey it on in 2018. But last year TSMC took the lead, again. And appears to be widening that lead quite substantially. Leading us to our conclusion that this will not be enough. These moves by Intel will not be enough. They need to do more. And a big part of this announcement was partnerships and packaging. Okay. So here's where it gets interesting. Intel, as you may know was late to the party with SOC system on a chip. And it's going to use its packaging prowess to try and leap frog the competition. SOC bundles things like GPU, NPU, DSUs, accelerators caches on a single chip. So better use the real estate if you will. Now Intel wants to build system on package which will dis-aggregate memory from compute. Now remember today, memory is very poorly utilized. What Intel is going to do is to create a package with literally thousands of nodes comprising small processors, big processors, alternative processors, ARM processors, custom Silicon all sharing a pool of memory. This is a huge innovation and we'll come back to this in a moment. Now as part of the announcement, Intel trotted out some big name customers, prospects and even competitors that it wants to turn into prospects and customers. Amazon, Google, Satya Nadella gave a quick talk from Microsoft to Cisco. All those guys are designing their own chips as does Ericsson and look even Qualcomm is on the list, a competitor. Intel wants to earn the right to make chips for these firms. Now many on the list like Microsoft and Google they'd be happy to do so because they want more competition. And Qualcomm, well look if Intel can do a good job and be a strong second sourced, why not? Well, one reason is they compete aggressively with Intel but we don't like Intel so much but it's very possible. But the two most important partners on this slide are one IBM and two, the US government. Now many people were going to gloss over IBM in this announcement, but we think it's one of the most important pieces of the puzzle. Yes. IBM and semiconductors. IBM actually has some of the best semiconductor technology in the world. It's got great architecture and is two to three years ahead of Intel with POWER10. Yes, POWER. IBM is the world's leader in terms of dis-aggregating compute from memory with the ability to scale to thousands of nodes, sound familiar? IBM leads in power density, efficiency and it can put more stuff closer together. And it's looking now at a 20x increase in AI inference performance. We think Pat has been thinking about this for a while and he said, how can I leave leap frog system on chip. And we think he thought and said, I'll use our outstanding process manufacturing and I'll tap IBM as a partner for R&D and architectural chips to build the next generation of systems that are more flexible and performant than anything that's out there. Now look, this is super high end stuff. And guess who needs really high end massive supercomputing capabilities? Well, the US military. Pat said straight up, "We've talked to the government and we're honored to be competing for the government/military chips boundary." I mean, look Intel in my view was going to have to fall down into face not win this business. And by making the commitment to Foundry Services we think they will get a huge contract from the government, as large, perhaps as $10 billion or more to build a secure government Foundry and serve the military for decades to come. Now Pat was specifically asked in the Q&A section is this Foundry strategy that you're embarking on viable without the help of the US government? Kind of implying that it was a handout or a bailout. And Pat of course said all the right things. He said, "This is the right thing for Intel. Independent of the government, we haven't received any commitment or subsidies or anything like that from the US government." Okay, cool. But they have had conversations and I have no doubt, and Pat confirmed this, that those conversations were very, very positive that Intel should head in this direction. Well, we know what's happening here. The US government wants Intel to win. It needs Intel to win and its participation greatly increases the probability of success. But unfortunately, we still don't think it's enough for Intel to regain its number one position. Let's look at that in a little bit more detail. The headwinds for Intel are many. Look it can't just flick a switch and catch up on manufacturing leadership. It's going to take four years. And lots can change in that time. It tells market momentum as well as we pointed out earlier is headed in the wrong direction from a financial perspective. Moreover, where is the volume going to come from? It's going to take years for Intel to catch up for ARMS if it never can. And it's going to have to fight to win that business from its current competitors. Now I have no doubt. It will fight hard under Pat's excellent leadership. But the Foundry business is different. Consider this, Intel's annual CapEx expenditures, if you divide that by their yearly revenue it comes out to about 20% of revenue. TSMC spends 50% of its revenue each year on CapEx. This is a different animal, very service oriented. So look, we're not pounding the table saying Intel's worst days are over. We don't think they are. Now, there are some positives, I'm showing those in the right-hand side. Pat Gelsinger was born for this job. He proved that the other day, even though we already knew it. I have never seen him more excited and more clearheaded. And we agreed that the chip demand dynamic is going to have legs in this decade and beyond with Digital, Edge, AI and new use cases that are going to power that demand. And Intel is too strategic to fail. And the US government has huge incentives to make sure that it succeeds. But it's still not enough in our opinion because like the steel manufacturers Intel's real advantage today is increasingly in the high end high margin business. And without volume, China is going to win this battle. So we continue to believe that a new joint venture is going to emerge. Here's our prediction. We see a triumvirate emerging in a new joint venture that is led by Intel. It brings x86, that volume associated with that. It brings cash, manufacturing prowess, R&D. It brings global resources, so much more than we show in this chart. IBM as we laid out brings architecture, it's R&D, it's longstanding relationships. It's deal flow, it can funnel its business to the joint venture as can of course, parts of Intel. We see IBM getting a nice licensed deal from Intel and or the JV. And it has to get paid for its contribution and we think it'll also get a sweet deal and the manufacturing fees from this Intel Foundry. But it's still not enough to beat China. Intel needs volume. And that's where Samsung comes in. It has the volume with ARM, has the experience and a complete offering across products. We also think that South Korea is a more geographically appealing spot in the globe than Taiwan with its proximity to China. Not to mention that TSMC, it doesn't need Intel. It's already number one. Intel can get a better deal from number two, Samsung. And together these three we think, in this unique structure could give it a chance to become number one by the end of the decade or early in the 2030s. We think what's happening is our take, is that Intel is going to fight hard to win that government business, put itself in a stronger negotiating position and then cut a deal with some supplier. We think Samsung makes more sense than anybody else. Now finally, we want to leave you with some comments and some thoughts from the community. First, I want to thank David Foyer. His decade plus of work and knowledge of this industry along with this collaboration made this work possible. His fingerprints are all over this research in case you didn't notice. And next I want to share comments from two of my colleagues. The first is Serbjeet Johal. He sent this to me last night. He said, "We are not in our grandfather's compute era anymore. Compute is getting spread into every aspect of our economy and lives. The use of processors is getting more and more specialized and will intensify with the rise in edge computing, AI inference and new workloads." Yes, I totally agree with Sarbjeet. And that's the dynamic which Pat is betting and betting big. But the bottom line is summed up by my friend and former IDC mentor, Dave Moschella. He says, "This is all about China. History suggests that there are very few second acts, you know other than Microsoft and Apple. History also will say that the antitrust pressures that enabled AMD to thrive are the ones, the very ones that starved Intel's cash. Microsoft made the shift it's PC software cash cows proved impervious to competition. The irony is the same government that attacked Intel's monopoly now wants to be Intel's protector because of China. Perhaps it's a cautionary tale to those who want to break up big tech." Wow. What more can I add to that? Okay. That's it for now. Remember I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes are all available as podcasts. All you got to do is search for Braking Analysis podcasts and you can always connect with me on Twitter @dvellante or email me at david.vellante, siliconangle.com As always I appreciate the comments on LinkedIn and in clubhouse please follow me so that you're notified when we start a room and start riffing on these topics. And don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)