from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante recent earnings reports from key enterprise software and infrastructure players underscore that tech spending remains robust in the post isolation economy especially for those companies that have figured out a cloud strategy now despite covert variant uncertainties and component shortages and hardware most leading tech names outperformed expectations this past week that said investors were not in the mood to reward all names and any variability in product mix or earnings outlook or other nuances were met with a tepid response from the street hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll provide you with commentary and data points on key tech companies that announced this past week including snowflake salesforce workday splunk elastic palo alto networks vmware dell pure storage hp inc and netapp let's start by rolling back a week or so and look at how stocks that are priced to perfection get impacted by any negative news back on august 20th we saw this headline hit snowflake stock falls as analyst says signings growth has slowed the analyst report was put out by a boutique firm cleveland research the stock took a double-digit hit as you can see here i immediately got several texts from investors who know i follow the company asking me what i thought now as a disclaimer i don't give stock picking advice please do your own research but between the cube wikibon and etr we do see a lot of data and i'm happy to share that which i did with this tweet it said lots of talk ahead of snowflake's earnings some analysts have said their data suggests a slowdown etr data looks pretty encouraging and i tagged merv adrian he's a sharp analyst over at gartner who follows data and database he responded i don't speculate about revenues but there's no discernible shift in our client conversations though interest still seems high okay cool but let's let's dig into the etr data a bit and see why we remained positive this is a larger and more detailed version of the chart in the tweet it's a candlestick that shows a time series of the spending data on snowflake using etr's net score methodology the stacked bars represent the percent of customers in the survey that are newly adding the snowflake platform the forest green indicates the number of customers reporting that their spending is increasing by six percent or more the gray is flat spend that's plus or minus five percent the pinkish stack that's decreasing spend by six percent or more and the bright red is where chucking the platform we're leaving now you subtract the reds from the greens and that yields a net score which for snowflake last survey was a very elevated 81.3 percent we've highlighted the spending velocity line that's net score at the top put a picture of that blue line for snowflake in your mind because we're going to come back to it the yellow line down below is market share which is a measure of the pervasiveness in the survey i.e mention share if you will so looking at this chart one might conclude that the lime green i.e new account acquisition is compressing however in further analyzing the data back in january 2019 snowflake's presence in the survey was much lower only 35 accounts in subsequent quarters that number has jumped to over between 120 and 140 snowflake accounts so big much bigger n so while the percentage of respondents may be shrinking the absolute number of new accounts is growing on the snowflake earnings call snowflake said that new customers increased this past quarter to 458 up from 397 in the same period last year what's also telling is the forest green on its very first earnings call as a public company snowflake cfo mike scarpelli said very clearly the company's revenue growth in the near term will come from existing customers and the forest green i.e existing customers spending more is expanding in the etr survey so very strong confirmation of that trend and note the red is virtually non-existent for snowflake so it's no surprise that snowflake handily beat its earnings on the 25th of august which prompted a flurry of texts to me saying you were right thanks don't thank me do your own research we're just one data source okay so here's a snapshot of some of the major players that announced earnings this past week this chart is our popular xy view with net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share or pervasiveness in the survey in the horizontal plane we talked about snowflake already but i'll emphasize they've held that roughly eighty percent net score for ten plus quarterly surveys now and they've continued to move steadily to the right on the horizontal axis let's make some comments on these other names and then dig in a bit more salesforce of course they're the big player amongst these names that we're showing and as we've said in previous breaking analysis segments they have become the next great software company showing 20 plus growth for five consecutive quarters which is quite impressive splunk as we've reported has struggled in the survey but you can see splunk has a great presence in the data set they have an awesome customer base and the acquisition of signal fx plotted on the left with an elevated next net score represents a really good opportunity to enter new markets like observability and pull signalfx to the right to the rest of splunk's customers and that can help accelerate splunk's move toward a subscription model then there's workday we're plotting the company's core hcm business as well as its emerging financial software suite the latter represents workday's tam expansion opportunity and the company appears to be back on track to show sustained growth now let's dig a little deeper into these names and we'll start with salesforce here's the etr spending profile for salesforce salesforce as we showed earlier has a huge and growing presence in the market and a consistently elevated net score in the etr data and while the chart shows much more green than red and a strong uptick in spending momentum from last october survey this doesn't really tell the whole story salesforce's stock price rocketed out of the march 2020 crash and ran up to a peak last august and is on its way back salesforce has made a number of strategic acquisitions including tableau slack mulesoft and several other billion dollar plus buys as well as a number of smaller acquisitions this past quarter saw 23 revenue growth relative to last year with 20 percent plus operating margins that's huge salesforce's acquisition strategy is beginning to demonstrate the company's promised operating leverage and slack in our view will only add to that benefit including continuous improvement and free cash flow sales force revenue will blow through 25 billion dollars this fiscal year it's a company with a 250 billion dollar market cap and appears to be one a name that has meaningful upside opportunity okay let's take a quick look at splunk we're finally seeing an uptick in splunk's spending momentum with within the etr data set eric bradley and i have discussed this in previous breaking analysis segments the key point as we've reported is we see splunk as a company that has been in transition from a traditional license to an arr subscription model and finally the company is showing clarity that there's light at the end of that tunnel investors don't like companies in transition and like salesforce splunk's stock price ran up to an all-time high last august but then came down hard and never fully recovered but it has come off its may lows and there were some real positives this past quarter cloud annual recurring revenue for splunk this past quarter grew 72 percent and its bookings grew 20 29 year on year the company was conservative in its guidance and there still seems to be some uncertainty around cash flow but more clear guidance by splunk on the top line is a welcome sign and now another name that we've been following that announced earnings this week is elastic and as you can see by the etr data that company has an elevated net score with very little red in the bars now note that blue line while it's slowly decelerating it remains very strong and elevated remember the comment earlier i made about freezing that snowflake blue line in your head the reason we said that is because for snowflake to hold its roughly 80 net score position firmly over the past 10 plus quarters is quite astounding and for the most part it's unprecedented in the etr data set in recent memory back to elastic the company grew its top line by 45 which is a healthy beat and that helped operating margins come in above expectations elastic has become the open source poster child for observability but customers often cite challenges related to complexity and scaling with the need often to seek professional services help which sometimes impacts adoption and cost obviously but overall very strong report especially in its cloud business which grew 89 relative to last year all right let's pivot to infrastructure we're going to do that with palo alto networks and then look at a broader more traditional hardware and software players in february of 2020 we reported the valuation of divergence between palo alto networks and fortinet and we cited the challenges that palo alto was having around its shift to cloud that was a clear headwind at the time especially with regard to some of its go to market challenges at the same time we said that we were confident that palo alto would work through these issues and the csos from the etr panels along with other anecdotal information from the cube community suggested that the company would power through these problems well it has palo alto has a huge presence in the market and consistently elevated net scores as you can see here palo alto stock is trading near all-time highs and it reacted very well to its uh to the earnings report this past week where revenue grew nicely at 20 28 year on year the company has consistently impressed despite some hiccups of the past and appears to be well positioned for the emerging hybrid work economy okay now let's take a look at some of the key infrastructure players that announced this past week this chart shows our popular xy view with netscore spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share and or pervasiveness on the horizontal axis we'll start with vmware it has the biggest presence in the market amongst these names vmware's revenue grew nine percent in the quarter which was in line with estimates the company had a solid quarter but only marginally beat expectations and the stock got hit hard it was down 8 percent midday on friday vmware cited stronger than expected perpetual license sales and somewhat softer sas subscription revenue now it's not surprising that we're going to see some lumpiness in those two lines as the company transitions to a subscription model but investors clearly want to see more growth in sas and subscriptions than they do in the traditional perpetual license model vmware cloud on aws grew 80 and that's confirmed in the data here compute was also strong one concern in the etr data is the vmware cloud which is the the core the vm vmr cloud foundation vcf which you can see here is well off its january net score highs now it's possible the etr is picking up some of the conservative clients that don't want to move to an ar or subscription model it's unclear but we'll continue to watch that trend overall vmware's business model is solid in our view and very very strong now let's talk about dell next dell in our view had a great quarter it grew top-line revenues by 15 year-on-year its client business grew 27 percent and you can see the elevated dell laptop net net scores in this chart the isg business was up three percent that comprises service and networking which was up six percent and storage which was off one percent the storage business contin continues to struggle but management reported that its mid-range storage revenue was up 17 now the challenge here is that high-end storage it's cyclical it's exposed sometimes you know somewhat to mainframe cycles but but but but the other thing is that a lot of the mid-range capability is eating away at the high end not the least which by the way is is pure storage competing at the higher end but also dell's own mid-range business so that continues to be a drag on revenue the the size of the traditional high-end business that that v-max power max business still is is is quite large and the the new is not growing fast enough to offset the decline in in the old but i mean i saw these numbers from dell i was surprised to see the stock down nearly five percent at midday on friday and i think what's happening is a couple things one is that hpq hp inc which we show here at a lower net score than dell's laptop business cited supply chain issues and component shortages now dell cited the same but maybe it's off on sympathy it's clear to us that dell is doing a much better job than hp with regard to managing component shortages the frustrating thing for these companies is it might be a 50 part holding up a server or in dell's case or a laptop in dell and hpq's case but demand is good which is a positive but the biggest factor in dell stock price we think is it's getting dragged down with vmware in a way if you think about it with vmware's value comprising so much of dell's market cap being down only four percent while vmware is down eight percent implies that the core dell business is viewed positively by the street but i thought with the vmware spin coming later this year investors might gravitate more aggressively toward dell but that didn't happen maybe over time now you see netapp on the chart netapp beat on top line revenue and earnings this past quarter however the company has not performed well in the etr surveys for several quarters and has a negative net score this is due when you tear apart the the math this is due to a low number of new adoptions and a fat middle very big fat middle of flat spending and a pretty high churn in the data set now the company claims they've picked up 1500 new customers in its cloud business so maybe maybe the etr survey is not picking that up or perhaps it's existing customers that are moving to netapp's cloud service that they're counting as new that's unclear but netapp claims that its public cloud business grew 155 in the quarter regardless the street likes netapp's story the stock has been acting very well this year out passing outpacing the s p 500. now you also see pure on the chart with a nicely elevated net score the company beat top and bottom lines this quarter and its ceo charlie giancarlo promised roughly 20 percent revenue growth going forward the street sure liked that that story and the stock shot up nearly 20 percent on that news and you can see here a little drill down the etr spending data trends in the right direction for pure to support this momentum pure's messaging is all around a modern data platform and it's clear from customer conversations that its storage products are easier to use than traditional storage offerings and it has a leg up on the as a service trend which we've been reporting on which pure has been pursuing for a number of years but it's still a much smaller player a couple billion dollars than the dells and the netapps of the storage world but if it can continue on a strong growth trajectory it will of course become a larger custom company the question will be how to continue to expand its total available market now the obvious path has been share gains which over the years it has accomplished and has served them well but that won't be as easy as it was last decade when pure caught emc and netapp flat-footed without strong flash array strategies pure's port works acquisition is something to watch as well as it tries to transition the market to a true cloud-like program programmable infrastructure model infrastructure as code and we'll leave you with this thought about the infrastructure space generally in storage specifically while cloud storage has exploded over the past several years on-prem storage has been extremely soft this in our view has been due to the double whammy that we've reported the combination of cloud stealing share from on-prem and the big flash injection in other words the latter suppressed the need to buy more spinning spindles and controllers for better performance and it hurt demand you don't need to do that when you have all this flash headroom but as we predicted last year we believe that there's pent up demand as people go back to work and headquarters need refresh there's only so much blood that it managers can squeeze from the stone moving storage around optimizing servers and and improving things like utilization while at the same time maintaining adequate performance and doing so within some kind of reasonable window of a day storage is no longer monolithic there are emerging use cases especially ones that are data intensive different storage types are emerging as satya nadella said recently we've reached peak centralization and as such that will create tailwinds for storage offerings that can accommodate cloud and on-prem because it pros understand that moving data is expensive and risky it's best to keep data where it belongs for reasons of performance and of course compliance so it looks like there's a decent chance that the long storage winter is over and the market could return to solid growth even the face of a continued cloud explosion now to circle back quickly to the enterprise software business there seems to be no end in sight to the shift to cloud-based offerings both sas and snowflake-like consumption models of which we're big believers digital transformation initiatives are real they're meaningful and software spending we believe is going to be robust and power these transformations for quite some time okay that's it for today remember these episodes are all available as podcasts all you got to do is search breaking analysis podcast we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can reach me at divalante on twitter or my linkedin posts or email me at david.vellante siliconangle.com please do check check out the etr website at etr.plus and see their new data packages and offerings for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr thanks for watching everybody be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto, in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> SaaS companies have been some of the strongest performers in this COVID era. They finally took a bit of a breather this month, but they remain generally well-positioned for the next several years with their predictable models and cloud platforms. Meanwhile, the demise of on-prem legacy players from COVID shock, seems to have been overstated, in part because of the return of the laptop and in the case of Oracle with some see as a cloud play, Hmm. Then there's Bitcoin which is seeing public companies use their balance sheet liquidity to invest in the cryptocurrency. (chuckles) Wow. What does that all mean? I'll leave that for another day. Hello everyone and welcome to this week on Cube insights powered by ETR. On this breaking analysis, we'll pick out some of the more recent themes from this month and share our thoughts in some major enterprise software players, the future of on-prem, a review of our take on cloud and what cloud will look like in the 2020s. Wow. It's true, trees really don't grow to the moon. As predicted, the stock market has been a little bit crazy this month. February saw some leading SaaS names like Workday, Salesforce, and ServiceNow take a bit of a breather in the second half of the month. Workday and Salesforce announced earnings on the 25th. Workday had its first billion dollar subscription revenue quarter at 16% revenue growth a revenue and earnings beat. And of course the stock closed down Friday, more than 2%. Salesforce had a nearly $6 billion revenue quarter 20% growth, a revenue and earnings beat. And the day after it announced earnings the stock was down more than 6%. The market is worried about rising interest rates, and maybe concerned that an inflation fears are going to kill the stimulus bill. And so any whiff of caution by company managements is met with dampened enthusiasm. Meanwhile, it's looking like some of the big on-prem legacy firms, notably Dell, HPQ and HPE are making it through COVID, and might even come out in the other side stronger maybe. Dell handily beat expectations on the 25th on the strength of 17% growth in its client business. That's PCs. It's the gift that keeps on giving. HPQ had a strong beat as well, and we're anticipating a solid quarter from HPE next week on March 2nd. And then there's Oracle. Barron's had a big article on February 19th, entitled, "Oracle is turning into a cloud giant and why it's stock is a buy". It moved the market. And many investors rotated out of growth stocks, tech growth tech stocks into Oracle, others who had owned Oracle for a while scooped up some profits. Is Oracle a cloud giant? Hmm. We'll discuss that in a moment. And then there's all this Bitcoin mania. You know, our interest there is much more beyond the price fluctuations rather we're interested in the innovations in crypto. Look, we're going to table this for another day, but it's an interesting side note of this February madness. Let's take a look closer look at the February chill for SaaS companies. Here's a chart showing the relative performance of some of the big SaaS names in the latter half of this month. Now despite the strong earnings for Workday and Salesforce you can see the market's negative response on the 26th. Snowflake and ServiceNow they had epic runs last year, and they've been softening although on Friday morning ServiceNow shut down quickly on the open on sympathy with Workday and ServiceNow and then investors, you know, came back in. Very weird action in the market these days, again, not surprising. And look at the reaction investors had to the Barron's article on the 19th. They anointed Oracle as a cloud giant. Kudos to the Oracle PR team for that one. Now, let's take a look at these companies and put them in context. Even though they're not direct competitors it's instructive to model some of the top enterprise software players in positions, and line them up against each other. This chart here shows two dimensions from the ETR data. On the vertical axis is net score or customer spending momentum. And the horizontal axis is market share or pervasiveness in the survey. The table inset shows the net score measurement in the shared end. That's the metric that plots the dots. In both cases bigger is better. Note, that red dotted-line there is the 40% line. 40% to us is the magic number. Anything above that line is considered elevated. So we have ServiceNow and Salesforce they're up to the right. They're both big companies. They have significant market presence amongst the CIO and both have elevated spending velocity in the 50% range. And I've said for years, these two companies are on a collision course and I stand by that. It started happening and McDermott Bill McDermott, new CEO he's going to accelerate that in our view. We put a cloud around Snowflake tongue in cheek, because they are literally in the clouds on this chart. They stand alone, with a solid market presence that continues to grow in an off the charts net score of 83.3% now. For context you can see Oracle Fusion, NetSuite and Taleo. In addition, we put Slack and Coupa on the graphic, two names that have been on the radar lately and SAP, which continues to show decent spending momentum despite its challenges. All right, let me make a few comments on some of these companies. Snowflake, we've talked about a lot. I said earlier that their IPO, that if you really wanted to own it and couldn't wait for a better price, which I thought you'd get. And by the way you did, but then if you really wanted to own it on day one hold your nose and buy it and then wait a few years. So, you know, good luck. And I think you'll, it'll turn out okay for you. Now, the data really continues to show strong demand for Snowflake. There's no signs of them slowing down. So they announced earnings on March 3rd. We didn't have more data there. So we would expect confirmation of our analysis but you never know. Now Workday, here's our take. In our view the market is catching up to Workday. They had about a three-year lead at least in human capital management and the cloud and that whole model. And they had the best product. It was really simple and it was quite disruptive. But now you got Oracle, ADP, Ceridian they're catching up. Workday's expansion into financial management has been much more challenging and as it gets bigger, things get tougher. It's still though an enduring name. Salesforce, we see a bit differently. Salesforce is so big now, it's really hard for it to move the needle. And so it's been on an acquisition binge, and to grow that's likely going to continue. It could work well for the company. I mean, similar to the ways in which Oracle consolidated software names and picked up a lot of customers. Salesforce is a great name, and we think is going to continue to grow. ServiceNow is interesting. It's entering a new chapter under CEO, Bill McDermott, new CEO. He wants to double the company's revenue. And I think he's got a reasonable chance at that through a combination of great go-to-market and expanding the platform and in McDermott style doing acquisitions. SAP's market value tripled under his watch, and he knows the customers. And he's a magnet for attracting talent. Now ServiceNow is not without its challenges. Its customers often complain that ServiceNow is pricing is really high and it's becoming the Oracle of service management. But as McDermott aims more at SAP and Oracle customers, they create a nice umbrella for ServiceNow to work with. And technically, we think ServiceNow has other challenges around its multi-instance. We call it, if you can't fix it feature it architecture. That may present some issues down the road at scale. We don't have time to go into that in detail but suffice it to say that ServiceNow runs on its own cloud. So it's not running on a hyper scale cloud. Yeah. Good news it doesn't have to pay it through that. The bad news is, has got to manage all that infrastructure. It's basically be a cloud supply supplier but it doesn't do multi-tenant which means fundamentally, it has a more expensive cost structure. Okay. Let's turn our attention to what's happening on-prem with some of the big legacy names. Here's the same X Y chart with some of the big names that have a presence on-prem. First you can see VMware and Cisco, Oracle, Dell, IBM and HP. Look at them on the horizontal scale. They've got a large market share of presence in the ETR dataset. Unlike the larger SaaS companies however, none is above that magic 40% net scoreline. Pure, Dell's laptop business, Red Hat, OpenShift. They're above the line with Nutanix just about there at the line. The other major laptop players, Lenovo and HPQ showing momentum from the whole remote work trend. And for context, we put in NetApp so you can get a sense of where they're at. Pure beat its earnings last week but only grew 2% last quarter. Now remember the ETR survey, this is a forward-looking survey. So this potentially bodes well for the companies that are above that 40% line. Okay. So most so sorry of the companies on this chart only IBM and Oracle, those two own a public cloud. And we'll dig further into that in a moment, but virtually every name shown here, even Oracle has a mandate to redefine cloud. Meaning it has to put forth in our view in North star vision and execute on it. That will unify the experience between on-prem, hybrid cloud, public clouds, cross clouds and the edge. Now I say even Oracle, because in my view, Oracle is in a stronger position than the others, because of it's more coherent software architecture. Now the other companies on this chart, they have to architect a platform that abstracts the underlying complexity of clouds, leverage cloud native tooling in the respective public clouds. Connect on-prem infrastructure and build a layer, that stretches out and accommodates edge workloads. I think Oracle will follow suit and is actually ahead of most in a narrower context, i.e hybrid. But it doesn't have to race toward this vision. It can sit back as it often does, watch everyone else fumble around and make mistakes. And then Oracle will keep investing in R&D, watch the market, you know make its own experimental mistakes, and then enter the market and act like we invented it. Now, Cisco will come at this from a strong networking and security perspective. And it has a nice story on programmable infrastructure with Cisco DevNet. But unfortunately it does not own VMware as does Dell, but Dell is in the middle of a fairly remarkable journey. And it will be interesting to see what happens with the VMware spin-out and the cozy commercial relationship that Dell is structuring with VMware as you know, and as we've reported, Dell has used VMware's cash for a lot of this restructuring. And so we'll see, as it exits the current phase and enters a new phase, how it will be able to pursue that vision. It's going to be, whatever it does it's going to be much different than that vertically integrated Oracle approach, which of course brings me to IBM. Potentially Red Hat with OpenShift is the most powerful card in the deck right now. OpenShift I mean, it's open it's everywhere. It has momentum as we showed. And I like their position. My concern is IBM, IBM is still unwinding and restructuring its business. And it's taking a long time as we've seen, with its outsourcing business. And now the Watson health assets, Irvine is continuing that downsizing trend that we saw under Ginny, shedding non-strategic businesses that don't fit, Irvine has a lot to deal with. And I want to point out that this idea of an abstraction layer across clouds is not trivial. First, all of these companies have to stop being so defensive about the public cloud. To a large extent, VMware and Red Hat have found a happy place. But in my view, they all should be thanking AWS, Azure, and Google for building out this great global distributed system, that they can leverage and build on top of. And second, this is going to be expensive. And Cisco, Dell VMware, IBM, they're all really stretched thin from an R&D perspective. They a lot of mouths to feed across the portfolio. So is HPE stretched thin, and it doesn't have the R&D budget at less than $2 billion annually. So my concern is that we're going to have lots of complexity across these obstructions layers by vendor. Now maybe the good news for companies. This may be good news for companies like Hashi or specialists with a vision to do this within a domain like a clumial, or a vast data, but this is big, and they are small. So it's going to take the better part of a decade to play out. Now, let's take a quick look at the cloud players. OMG when I saw that article in Barron's last weekend my mouth dropped. What a headline and it had this illustration of a stout Larry Ellison rising above the clouds. Here's a picture of the ETR data for the cloud players. It's the same X, Y plotting or net score and market share. If you follow this program, you know we believe there are four and only four hyper scale cloud players, with the resources to compete and differentiate as horizontal infrastructure players, which really is how we view the origination of modern cloud computing. AWS created it with S3 and EC2 with 2006. Those four are AWS and Azure, which have a large lead over the pack. Google cloud and Alibaba. And you can see we've circled the on-prem pack which comprises Oracle and IBM along with Dell VMware. And we snuck Google just stuck them at the edge of that circle because the differentiate they're cozying up to companies with strong enterprise sales teams and Google's, they're smart, they're patient. And so we, by no means, count them out. They're spending like mad and they have a lot of cash. They've done some really interesting open source things with containers. And so, you know, no doubt they're a player, but they are behind. Now in that on-prem pack, IBM and Oracle they actually own their own public clouds. IBM, they acquired soft layer which was a bare metal hosting company at the time to get IBM into the game. They retooled the platform over several years. Now here's the thing, try and unpack IBM's cloud business looking at its financial or in earnings reports. It's just a mess. I hope Irvine cuts the nonsense and actually develops and reports a set of metrics that are meaningful to cloud observers and IBM observers, because the way IBM reports its cloud business today is opaque and it's nonsense. It's frankly embarrassing to the company. It needs to end sooner rather than later is fundamentally meaningless to any observers. Now observers of cloud. If you care about the big chunk of whatever then maybe it has meaning. Now Oracle for its part, they announced the public cloud years ago, its version of one datto cloud was crap. And the company, they hired a bunch of really smart cloud engineers and they spent a lot of money to fix that. Now neither IBM nor Oracle have the CapEx resources of the big four, not even close, yet they'll build out data centers and yes they'll have a play, but they're different and that's okay. Now in the Barron's article on Oracle, the author was quite positive on Oracle, noting that quote, "On a recent earnings call CEO Safra Catz said that Oracle cloud infrastructure revenue was up 139% for the quarter". So, (laughs) we have really no sense or a stake in the ground is to up from what? Anyway, noting further the author said, quote, "Alas! Oracle doesn't break out OCI sales and comps can be messy". Hmm, indeed. Oracle is hiding the ball on OCI, that's because if they did break it out, which by the way they used to report, AIS revenue explicitly, but if they did break it out, they would only be highlighting that they are a minor player in AIS. Further, the article continues, quote, "Catz says that hers is the only tech company that has both a global cloud and a full set of enterprise applications". Unquote, bingo. There it is. That's why Oracle is in a better position than many of or most of the on-prem players listed in this chart. By the way, I would argue that Microsoft has a pretty impressive set of enterprise applications in a fairly global cloud. But what Safra is talking about is applications that support the world's most mission critical work. And when it comes to that, Oracle is number one. Don't fool yourself and get caught up in the Oracle lock-in and high pricing narrative, thinking that they're going to get crushed. They're not. Oracle is the best in the mission critical workload game. There is no one better, period. But guys, come on. The big four last year grew 41% and accounted for $86 billion in AIS revenue, AKA real cloud revenue. And they're going to surpass $115 billion this year combined. Real cloud companies don't grow in the single digits today. So talk to me when we reach equilibrium on that front. Okay. So let's wrap by looking at what does a cloud company look like in the 2020s? Now, I'm not saying that the rest of the pack shouldn't redefine cloud they should. But I hope we can all agree by now that modern day cloud computing was defined in business terms by AWS. They are number one in cloud computing, make no mistake. However, AWS is bringing the cloud into the wheelhouse of the on-prem players, cleverly saying that it's bringing AWS to the edge and it looks at the data centers. Just another edge node is great positioning but that is not trivial. Just look it out posts and how AWS has had to evolve its pricing strategy in terms, can't just turn it off like you can, the public cloud. I have an entire rant on all the, SaaS service transformations. It's really interesting to watch as AWS goes out, and the on-prem players come in and go hybrid. I got a lot of thought on what's happening there both in terms of SaaS, which I think is an outdated pricing model, and the infrastructure as a service players that are really getting into this game, we would love to do a session on that sometime. And it's a real disruption I think coming. Anyway, AWS competitors should absolutely try to redefine cloud. By AWS moving to the edge, it's opened up the door to that possibility. Microsoft is obviously in the best position I think by far here. They've earned the right and I'll never accuse them of cloud washing. Google, they got some work to do in this regard, but they probably have the largest physical cloud infrastructure in the world. As I've said, they just need to pull their heads out of their ads and quadruple down on cloud. But this idea of abstracting away the underlying complexity of the cloud, leveraging cloud native capabilities and building on top of the shoulders of the cloud giants such as David Floyer has expressed in this chart, moving from stateless to state full, integrating across clouds, advancing automation not only through the stack, but across domains and ultimately using metadata to govern where workloads should live or be moved, be disintegrated and recombined with low latency and be highly secured. I look at this, I think about this and I say one there is this technically feasible and smart techies tell me yes, so I keep trying to dig here for signs and I definitely see some movement in this direction. And two, I don't think any one vendor is going to do this themselves. They're not going to, it's not going to be owned by one company. I think what's going to happen is you'll get successes within layers of the stack. I mean, think about Snowflakes data cloud. We're going to see that for storage. See it for backup, data management, security maybe security within different domains. You see endpoint and identity access management. Maybe that cloud comes together as cloud security. You see it in applications, but without clear standards, it's going to be a challenge. And with respect to my friends at Snowflake, we might even see it in database sometime LOL, but look you all have a lot of work to do. And to my CIO friends, you know the drill much better than I, technology is going to keep relentlessly coming at you and you can deal with that. It's the people and the change management in the culture. Those are your bigger challenges, but don't screw up the tech. Okay. Thanks for watching. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen, just search breaking analysis podcasts, and please subscribe to the series, we appreciate that. Check out ETR's website at ETR.plus sorry, ETR.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me at David.Vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me on Twitter at DVellante that's @DVellante or comment, excuse me on my LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Stay safe, be well, get the jab if you have an opportunity. And we'll see you next time. (soft music)