(upbeat music) (upbeat music) >> Hi everybody, welcome back to our coverage of the Cloud Native Security Con. I'm Dave Vellante, here in our Boston studio. We're connecting today with Palo Alto, with John Furrier and Lisa Martin. We're also live from the show floor in Seattle. But right now, I'm here with Andy Thurai who's from Constellation Research, friend of theCUBE, and we're going to discuss the intersection of AI and security, the potential of AI, the risks and the future. Andy, welcome, good to see you again. >> Good to be here again. >> Hey, so let's get into it, can you talk a little bit about, I know this is a passion of yours, the ethical considerations surrounding AI. I mean, it's front and center in the news, and you've got accountability, privacy, security, biases. Should we be worried about AI from a security perspective? >> Absolutely, man, you should be worried. See the problem is, people don't realize this, right? I mean, the ChatGPT being a new shiny object, it's all the craze that's about. But the problem is, most of the content that's produced either by ChatGPT or even by others, it's an access, no warranties, no accountability, no whatsoever. Particularly, if it is content, it's okay. But if it is something like a code that you use for example, one of their site projects that GitHub's co-pilot, which is actually, open AI + Microsoft + GitHub's combo, they allow you to produce code, AI writes code basically, right? But when you write code, problem with that is, it's not exactly stolen, but the models are created by using the GitHub code. Actually, they're getting sued for that, saying that, "You can't use our code". Actually there's a guy, Tim Davidson, I think he's named the professor, he actually demonstrated how AI produces exact copy of the code that he has written. So right now, it's a lot of security, accountability, privacy issues. Use it either to train or to learn. But in my view, it's not ready for enterprise grade yet. >> So, Brian Behlendorf today in his keynotes said he's really worried about ChatGPT being used to automate spearfishing. So I'm like, okay, so let's unpack that a little bit. Is the concern there that it just, the ChatGPT writes such compelling phishing content, it's going to increase the probability of somebody clicking on it, or are there other dimensions? >> It could, it's not necessarily just ChatGPT for that matter, right? AI can, actually, the hackers are using it to an extent already, can use to individualize content. For example, one of the things that you are able to easily identify when you're looking at the emails that are coming in, the phishing attack is, you look at some of the key elements in it, whether it's a human or even if it's an automated AI based system. They look at certain things and they say, "Okay, this is phishing". But if you were to read an email that looks exact copy of what I would've sent to you saying that, "Hey Dave, are you on for tomorrow? Or click on this link to do whatever. It could individualize the message. That's where the volume at scale to individual to masses, that can be done using AI, which is what scares me. >> Is there a flip side to AI? How is it being utilized to help cybersecurity? And maybe you could talk about some of the more successful examples of AI in security. Like, are there use cases or are there companies out there, Andy, that you find, I know you're close to a lot of firms that are leading in this area. You and I have talked about CrowdStrike, I know Palo Alto Network, so is there a positive side to this story? >> Yeah, I mean, absolutely right. Those are some of the good companies you mentioned, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Darktrace is another one that I closely follow, which is a good company as well, that they're using AI for security purposes. So, here's the thing, right, when people say, when they're using malware detection systems, most of the malware detection systems that are in today's security and malware systems, use some sort of a signature and pattern scanning in the malware. You know how many identified malwares are there today in the repository, in the library? More than a billion, a billion. So, if you are to check for every malware in your repository, that's not going to work. The pattern based recognition is not going to work. So, you got to figure out a different way of identification of pattern of usage, not just a signature in a malware, right? Or there are other areas you could use, things like the usage patterns. For example, if Andy is coming in to work at a certain time, you could combine a facial recognition saying, that should he be in here at that time, and should he be doing things, what he is supposed to be doing. There are a lot of things you could do using that, right? And the AIOps use cases, which is one of my favorite areas that I work, do a lot of work, right? That it has use cases for detecting things that are anomaly, that are not supposed to be done in a way that's supposed to be, reducing the noise so it can escalate only the things what you're supposed to. So, AIOps is a great use case to use in security areas which they're not using it to an extent yet. Incident management is another area. >> So, in your malware example, you're saying, okay, known malware, pretty much anybody can deal with that now. That's sort of yesterday's problem. >> The unknown is the problem. >> It's the unknown malware really trying to understand the patterns, and the patterns are going to change. It's not like you're saying a common signature 'cause they're going to use AI to change things up at scale. >> So, here's the problem, right? The malware writers are also using AI now, right? So, they're not going to write the old malware, send it to you. They are actually creating malware on the fly. It is possible entirely in today's world that they can create a malware, drop in your systems and it'll it look for the, let me get that name right. It's called, what are we using here? It's called the TTPs, Tactics, Techniques and procedures. It'll look for that to figure out, okay, am I doing the right pattern? And then malware can sense it saying that, okay, that's the one they're detecting. I'm going to change it on the fly. So, AI can code itself on the fly, rather malware can code itself on the fly, which is going to be hard to detect. >> Well, and when you talk about TTP, when you talk to folks like Kevin Mandia of Mandiant, recently purchased by Google or other of those, the ones that have the big observation space, they'll talk about the most malicious hacks that they see, involve lateral movement. So, that's obviously something that people are looking for, AI's looking for that. And of course, the hackers are going to try to mask that lateral movement, living off the land and other things. How do you see AI impacting the future of cyber? We talked about the risks and the good. One of the things that Brian Behlendorf also mentioned is that, he pointed out that in the early days of the internet, the protocols had an inherent element of trust involved. So, things like SMTP, they didn't have security built in. So, they built up a lot of technical debt. Do you see AI being able to help with that? What steps do you see being taken to ensure that AI based systems are secure? >> So, the major difference between the older systems and the newer systems is the older systems, sadly even today, a lot of them are rules-based. If it's a rules-based systems, you are dead in the water and not able, right? So, the AI-based systems can somewhat learn from the patterns as I was talking about, for example... >> When you say rules-based systems, you mean here's the policy, here's the rule, if it's not followed but then you're saying, AI will blow that away, >> AI will blow that away, you don't have to necessarily codify things saying that, okay, if this, then do this. You don't have to necessarily do that. AI can somewhat to an extent self-learn saying that, okay, if that doesn't happen, if this is not a pattern that I know which is supposed to happen, who should I escalate this to? Who does this system belong to? And the other thing, the AIOps use case we talked about, right, the anomalies. When an anomaly happens, then the system can closely look at, saying that, okay, this is not normal behavior or usage. Is that because system's being overused or is it because somebody's trying to access something, could look at the anomaly detection, anomaly prevention or even prediction to an extent. And that's where AI could be very useful. >> So, how about the developer angle? 'Cause CNCF, the event in Seattle is all around developers, how can AI be integrated? We did a lot of talk at the conference about shift-left, we talked about shift-left and protect right. Meaning, protect the run time. So, both are important, so what steps should be taken to ensure that the AI systems are being developed in a secure and ethically sound way? What's the role of developers in that regard? >> How long do you got? (Both laughing) I think it could go for base on that. So, here's the problem, right? Lot of these companies are trying to see, I mean, you might have seen that in the news that Buzzfeed is trying to hire all of the writers to create the thing that ChatGPT is creating, a lot of enterprises... >> How, they're going to fire their writers? >> Yeah, they replace the writers. >> It's like automated automated vehicles and automated Uber drivers. >> So, the problem is a lot of enterprises still haven't done that, at least the ones I'm speaking to, are thinking about saying, "Hey, you know what, can I replace my developers because they are so expensive? Can I replace them with AI generated code?" There are a few issues with that. One, AI generated code is based on some sort of a snippet of a code that has been already available. So, you get into copyright issues, that's issue number one, right? Issue number two, if AI creates code and if something were to go wrong, who's responsible for that? There's no accountability right now. Or you as a company that's creating a system that's responsible, or is it ChatGPT, Microsoft is responsible. >> Or is the developer? >> Or the developer. >> The individual developer might be. So, they're going to be cautious about that liability. >> Well, so one of the areas where I'm seeing a lot of enterprises using this is they are using it to teach developers to learn things. You know what, if you're to code, this is a good way to code. That area, it's okay because you are just teaching them. But if you are to put an actual production code, this is what I advise companies, look, if somebody's using even to create a code, whether with or without your permission, make sure that once the code is committed, you validate that the 100%, whether it's a code or a model, or even make sure that the data what you're feeding in it is completely out of bias or no bias, right? Because at the end of the day, it doesn't matter who, what, when did that, if you put out a service or a system out there, it is involving your company liability and system, and code in place. You're going to be screwed regardless of what, if something were to go wrong, you are the first person who's liable for it. >> Andy, when you think about the dangers of AI, and what keeps you up at night if you're a security professional AI and security professional. We talked about ChatGPT doing things, we don't even, the hackers are going to get creative. But what worries you the most when you think about this topic? >> A lot, a lot, right? Let's start off with an example, actually, I don't know if you had a chance to see that or not. The hackers used a bank of Hong Kong, used a defect mechanism to fool Bank of Hong Kong to transfer $35 million to a fake account, the money is gone, right? And the problem that is, what they did was, they interacted with a manager and they learned this executive who can control a big account and cloned his voice, and clone his patterns on how he calls and what he talks and the whole name he has, after learning that, they call the branch manager or bank manager and say, "Hey, you know what, hey, move this much money to whatever." So, that's one way of kind of phishing, kind of deep fake that can come. So, that's just one example. Imagine whether business is conducted by just using voice or phone calls itself. That's an area of concern if you were to do that. And imagine this became an uproar a few years back when deepfakes put out the video of Tom Cruise and others we talked about in the past, right? And Tom Cruise looked at the video, he said that he couldn't distinguish that he didn't do it. It is so close, that close, right? And they are doing things like they're using gems... >> Awesome Instagram account by the way, the guy's hilarious, right? >> So, they they're using a lot of this fake videos and fake stuff. As long as it's only for entertainment purposes, good. But imagine doing... >> That's right there but... >> But during the election season when people were to put out saying that, okay, this current president or ex-president, he said what? And the masses believe right now whatever they're seeing in TV, that's unfortunate thing. I mean, there's no fact checking involved, and you could change governments and elections using that, which is scary shit, right? >> When you think about 2016, that was when we really first saw, the weaponization of social, the heavy use of social and then 2020 was like, wow. >> To the next level. >> It was crazy. The polarization, 2024, would deepfakes... >> Could be the next level, yeah. >> I mean, it's just going to escalate. What about public policy? I want to pick your brain on this because I I've seen situations where the EU, for example, is going to restrict the ability to ship certain code if it's involved with critical infrastructure. So, let's say, example, you're running a nuclear facility and you've got the code that protects that facility, and it can be useful against some other malware that's outside of that country, but you're restricted from sending that for whatever reason, data sovereignty. Is public policy, is it aligned with the objectives in this new world? Or, I mean, normally they have to catch up. Is that going to be a problem in your view? >> It is because, when it comes to laws it's always miles behind when a new innovation happens. It's not just for AI, right? I mean, the same thing happened with IOT. Same thing happened with whatever else new emerging tech you have. The laws have to understand if there's an issue and they have to see a continued pattern of misuse of the technology, then they'll come up with that. Use in ways they are ahead of things. So, they put a lot of restrictions in place and about what AI can or cannot do, US is way behind on that, right? But California has done some things, for example, if you are talking to a chat bot, then you have to basically disclose that to the customer, saying that you're talking to a chat bot, not to a human. And that's just a very basic rule that they have in place. I mean, there are times that when a decision is made by the, problem is, AI is a black box now. The decision making is also a black box now, and we don't tell people. And the problem is if you tell people, you'll get sued immediately because every single time, we talked about that last time, there are cases involving AI making decisions, it gets thrown out the window all the time. If you can't substantiate that. So, the bottom line is that, yes, AI can assist and help you in making decisions but just use that as a assistant mechanism. A human has to be always in all the loop, right? >> Will AI help with, in your view, with supply chain, the software supply chain security or is it, it's always a balance, right? I mean, I feel like the attackers are more advanced in some ways, it's like they're on offense, let's say, right? So, when you're calling the plays, you know where you're going, the defense has to respond to it. So in that sense, the hackers have an advantage. So, what's the balance with software supply chain? Are the hackers have the advantage because they can use AI to accelerate their penetration of the software supply chain? Or will AI in your view be a good defensive mechanism? >> It could be but the problem is, the velocity and veracity of things can be done using AI, whether it's fishing, or malware, or other security and the vulnerability scanning the whole nine yards. It's scary because the hackers have a full advantage right now. And actually, I think ChatGPT recently put out two things. One is, it's able to direct the code if it is generated by ChatGPT. So basically, if you're trying to fake because a lot of schools were complaining about it, that's why they came up with the mechanism. So, if you're trying to create a fake, there's a mechanism for them to identify. But that's a step behind still, right? And the hackers are using things to their advantage. Actually ChatGPT made a rule, if you go there and read the terms and conditions, it's basically honor rule suggesting, you can't use this for certain purposes, to create a model where it creates a security threat, as that people are going to listen. So, if there's a way or mechanism to restrict hackers from using these technologies, that would be great. But I don't see that happening. So, know that these guys have an advantage, know that they're using AI, and you have to do things to be prepared. One thing I was mentioning about is, if somebody writes a code, if somebody commits a code right now, the problem is with the agile methodologies. If somebody writes a code, if they commit a code, you assume that's right and legit, you immediately push it out into production because need for speed is there, right? But if you continue to do that with the AI produced code, you're screwed. >> So, bottom line is, AI's going to speed us up in a security context or is it going to slow us down? >> Well, in the current version, the AI systems are flawed because even the ChatGPT, if you look at the the large language models, you look at the core piece of data that's available in the world as of today and then train them using that model, using the data, right? But people are forgetting that's based on today's data. The data changes on a second basis or on a minute basis. So, if I want to do something based on tomorrow or a day after, you have to retrain the models. So, the data already have a stale. So, that in itself is stale and the cost for retraining is going to be a problem too. So overall, AI is a good first step. Use that with a caution, is what I want to say. The system is flawed now, if you use it as is, you'll be screwed, it's dangerous. >> Andy, you got to go, thanks so much for coming in, appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me. >> You're very welcome, so we're going wall to wall with our coverage of the Cloud Native Security Con. I'm Dave Vellante in the Boston Studio, John Furrier, Lisa Martin and Palo Alto. We're going to be live on the show floor as well, bringing in keynote speakers and others on the ground. Keep it right there for more coverage on theCUBE. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)

(upbeat music) >> From theCube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCube and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> While by no means a safe haven, the cybersecurity sector has outpaced the broader tech market by a meaningful margin, that is up until very recently. Cybersecurity remains the number one technology priority for the C-suite, but as we've previously reported the CISO's budget has constraints just like other technology investments. Recent trends show that economic headwinds have elongated sales cycles, pushed deals into future quarters, and just like other tech initiatives, are pacing cybersecurity investments and breaking them into smaller chunks. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis we explain how cybersecurity trends are reverting to the mean and tracking more closely with other technology investments. We'll make a couple of valuation comparisons to show the magnitude of the challenge and which cyber firms are feeling the heat, which aren't. There are some exceptions. We'll then show the latest survey data from ETR to quantify the contraction in spending momentum and close with a glimpse of the landscape of emerging cybersecurity companies, the private companies that could be ripe for acquisition, consolidation, or disruptive to the broader market. First, let's take a look at the recent patterns for cyber stocks relative to the broader tech market as a benchmark, as an indicator. Here's a year to date comparison of the bug ETF, which comprises a basket of cyber security names, and we compare that with the tech heavy NASDAQ composite. Notice that on April 13th of this year the cyber ETF was actually in positive territory while the NAS was down nearly 14%. Now by August 16th, the green turned red for cyber stocks but they still meaningfully outpaced the broader tech market by more than 950 basis points as of December 2nd that Delta had contracted. As you can see, the cyber ETF is now down nearly 25%, year to date, while the NASDAQ is down 27% and change. Now take a look at just how far a few of the high profile cybersecurity names have fallen. Here are six security firms that we've been tracking closely since before the pandemic. We've been, you know, tracking dozens but let's just take a look at this data and the subset. We show for comparison the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, again, just for reference, they're both up since right before the pandemic. They're up relative to right before the pandemic, and then during the pandemic the S&P shot up more than 40%, relative to its pre pandemic level, around February is what we're using for the pre pandemic level, and the NASDAQ peaked at around 65% higher than that February level. They're now down 85% and 71% of their previous. So they're at 85% and 71% respectively from their pandemic highs. You compare that to these six companies, Splunk, which was and still is working through a transition is well below its pre pandemic market value and 44, it's 44% of its pre pandemic high as of last Friday. Palo Alto Networks is the most interesting here, in that it had been facing challenges prior to the pandemic related to a pivot to the Cloud which we reported on at the time. But as we said at that time we believe the company would sort out its Cloud transition, and its go to market challenges, and sales compensation issues, which it did as you can see. And its valuation jumped from 24 billion prior to Covid to 56 billion, and it's holding 93% of its peak value. Its revenue run rate is now over 6 billion with a healthy growth rate of 24% expected for the next quarter. Similarly, Fortinet has done relatively well holding 71% of its peak Covid value, with a healthy 34% revenue guide for the coming quarter. Now, Okta has been the biggest disappointment, a darling of the pandemic Okta's communication snafu, with what was actually a pretty benign hack combined with difficulty absorbing its 7 billion off zero acquisition, knocked the company off track. Its valuation has dropped by 35 billion since its peak during the pandemic, and that's after a nice beat and bounce back quarter just announced by Okta. Now, in our view Okta remains a viable long-term leader in identity. However, its recent fiscal 24 revenue guide was exceedingly conservative at around 16% growth. So either the company is sandbagging, or has such poor visibility that it wants to be like super cautious or maybe it's actually seeing a dramatic slowdown in its business momentum. After all, this is a company that not long ago was putting up 50% plus revenue growth rates. So it's one that bears close watching. CrowdStrike is another big name that we've been talking about on Breaking Analysis for quite some time. It like Okta has led the industry in a key ETR performance indicator that measures customer spending momentum. Just last week, CrowdStrike announced revenue increased more than 50% but new ARR was soft and the company guided conservatively. Not surprisingly, the stock got absolutely crushed as CrowdStrike blamed tepid demand from smaller and midsize firms. Many analysts believe that competition from Microsoft was one factor along with cautious spending amongst those midsize and smaller customers. Notably, large customers remain active. So we'll see if this is a longer term trend or an anomaly. Zscaler is another company in the space that we've reported having great customer spending momentum from the ETR data. But even though the company beat expectations for its recent quarter, like other companies its Outlook was conservative. So other than Palo Alto, and to a lesser extent Fortinet, these companies and others that we're not showing here are feeling the economic pinch and it shows in the compression of value. CrowdStrike, for example, had a 70 billion valuation at one point during the pandemic Zscaler top 50 billion, Okta 45 billion. Now, having said that Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler are all still trading well above their pre pandemic levels that we tracked back in February of 2020. All right, let's go now back to ETR'S January survey and take a look at how much things have changed since the beginning of the year. Remember, this is obviously pre Ukraine, and pre all the concerns about the economic headwinds but here's an X Y graph that shows a net score, or spending momentum on the y-axis, and market presence on the x-axis. The red dotted line at 40% on the vertical indicates a highly elevated net score. Anything above that we think is, you know, super elevated. Now, we filtered the data here to show only those companies with more than 50 responses in the ETR survey. Still really crowded. Note that there were around 20 companies above that red 40% mark, which is a very, you know, high number. It's a, it's a crowded market, but lots of companies with, you know, positive momentum. Now let's jump ahead to the most recent October survey and take a look at what, what's happening. Same graphic plotting, spending momentum, and market presence, and look at the number of companies above that red line and how it's been squashed. It's really compressing, it's still a crowded market, it's still, you know, plenty of green, but the number of companies above 40% that, that key mark has gone from around 20 firms down to about five or six. And it speaks to that compression and IT spending, and of course the elongated sales cycles pushing deals out, taking them in smaller chunks. I can't tell you how many conversations with customers I had, at last week at Reinvent underscoring this exact same trend. The buyers are getting pressure from their CFOs to slow things down, do more with less and, and, and prioritize projects to those that absolutely are critical to driving revenue or cutting costs. And that's rippling through all sectors, including cyber. Now, let's do a bit more playing around with the ETR data and take a look at those companies with more than a hundred citations in the survey this quarter. So N, greater than or equal to a hundred. Now remember the followers of Breaking Analysis know that each quarter we take a look at those, what we call four star security firms. That is, those are the, that are in, that hit the top 10 for both spending momentum, net score, and the N, the mentions in the survey, the presence, the pervasiveness in the survey, and that's what we show here. The left most chart is sorted by spending momentum or net score, and the right hand chart by shared N, or the number of mentions in the survey, that pervasiveness metric. that solid red line denotes the cutoff point at the top 10. And you'll note we've actually cut it off at 11 to account for Auth 0, which is now part of Okta, and is going through a go to market transition, you know, with the company, they're kind of restructuring sales so they can take advantage of that. So starting on the left with spending momentum, again, net score, Microsoft leads all vendors, typical Microsoft, very prominent, although it hadn't always done so, it, for a while, CrowdStrike and Okta were, were taking the top spot, now it's Microsoft. CrowdStrike, still always near the top, but note that CyberArk and Cloudflare have cracked the top five in Okta, which as I just said was consistently at the top, has dropped well off its previous highs. You'll notice that Palo Alto Network Palo Alto Networks with a 38% net score, just below that magic 40% number, is healthy, especially as you look over to the right hand chart. Take a look at Palo Alto with an N of 395. It is the largest of the independent pure play security firms, and has a very healthy net score, although one caution is that net score has dropped considerably since the beginning of the year, which is the case for most of the top 10 names. The only exception is Fortinet, they're the only ones that saw an increase since January in spending momentum as ETR measures it. Now this brings us to the four star security firms, that is those that hit the top 10 in both net score on the left hand side and market presence on the right hand side. So it's Microsoft, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, still there even not accounting for a Auth 0, just Okta on its own. If you put in Auth 0, it's, it's even stronger. Adding then in Fortinet and Zscaler. So Microsoft, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, Fortinet, and Zscaler. And as we've mentioned since January, only Fortinet has shown an increase in net score since, since that time, again, since the January survey. Now again, this talks to the compression in spending. Now one of the big themes we hear constantly in cybersecurity is the market is overcrowded. Everybody talks about that, me included. The implication there, is there's a lot of room for consolidation and that consolidation can come in the form of M&A, or it can come in the form of people consolidating onto a single platform, and retiring some other vendors, and getting rid of duplicate vendors. We're hearing that as a big theme as well. Now, as we saw in the previous, previous chart, this is a very crowded market and we've seen lots of consolidation in 2022, in the form of M&A. Literally hundreds of M&A deals, with some of the largest companies going private. SailPoint, KnowBe4, Barracuda, Mandiant, Fedora, these are multi billion dollar acquisitions, or at least billion dollars and up, and many of them multi-billion, for these companies, and hundreds more acquisitions in the cyberspace, now less you think the pond is overfished, here's a chart from ETR of emerging tech companies in the cyber security industry. This data comes from ETR's Emerging Technologies Survey, ETS, which is this diamond in a rough that I found a couple quarters ago, and it's ripe with companies that are candidates for M&A. Many would've liked, many of these companies would've liked to, gotten to the public markets during the pandemic, but they, you know, couldn't get there. They weren't ready. So the graph, you know, similar to the previous one, but different, it shows net sentiment on the vertical axis and that's a measurement of, of, of intent to adopt against a mind share on the X axis, which measures, measures the awareness of the vendor in the community. So this is specifically a survey that ETR goes out and, and, and fields only to track those emerging tech companies that are private companies. Now, some of the standouts in Mindshare, are OneTrust, BeyondTrust, Tanium and Endpoint, Net Scope, which we've talked about in previous Breaking Analysis. 1Password, which has been acquisitive on its own. In identity, the managed security service provider, Arctic Wolf Network, a company we've also covered, we've had their CEO on. We've talked about MSSPs as a real trend, particularly in small and medium sized business, we'll come back to that, Sneek, you know, kind of high flyer in both app security and containers, and you can just see the number of companies in the space this huge and it just keeps growing. Now, just to make it a bit easier on the eyes we filtered the data on these companies with with those, and isolated on those with more than a hundred responses only within the survey. And that's what we show here. Some of the names that we just mentioned are a bit easier to see, but these are the ones that really stand out in ERT, ETS, survey of private companies, OneTrust, BeyondTrust, Taniam, Netscope, which is in Cloud, 1Password, Arctic Wolf, Sneek, BitSight, SecurityScorecard, HackerOne, Code42, and Exabeam, and Sim. All of these hit the ETS survey with more than a hundred responses by, by the IT practitioners. Okay, so these firms, you know, maybe they do some M&A on their own. We've seen that with Sneek, as I said, with 1Password has been inquisitive, as have others. Now these companies with the larger footprint, these private companies, will likely be candidate for both buying companies and eventually going public when the markets settle down a bit. So again, no shortage of players to affect consolidation, both buyers and sellers. Okay, so let's finish with some key questions that we're watching. CrowdStrike in particular on its earnings calls cited softness from smaller buyers. Is that because these smaller buyers have stopped adopting? If so, are they more at risk, or are they tactically moving toward the easy button, aka, Microsoft's good enough approach. What does that mean for the market if smaller company cohorts continue to soften? How about MSSPs? Will companies continue to outsource, or pause on on that, as well as try to free up, to try to free up some budget? Adam Celiski at Reinvent last week said, "If you want to save money the Cloud's the best place to do it." Is the cloud the best place to save money in cyber? Well, it would seem that way from the standpoint of controlling budgets with lots of, lots of optionality. You could dial up and dial down services, you know, or does the Cloud add another layer of complexity that has to be understood and managed by Devs, for example? Now, consolidation should favor the likes of Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, cause they're platform players, and some of the larger players as well, like Cisco, how about IBM and of course Microsoft. Will that happen? And how will economic uncertainty impact the risk equation, a particular concern is increase of tax on vulnerable sectors of the population, like the elderly. How will companies and governments protect them from scams? And finally, how many cybersecurity companies can actually remain independent in the slingshot economy? In so many ways the market is still strong, it's just that expectations got ahead of themselves, and now as earnings forecast come, come, come down and come down to earth, it's going to basically come down to who can execute, generate cash, and keep enough runway to get through the knothole. And the one certainty is nobody really knows how tight that knothole really is. All right, let's call it a wrap. Next week we dive deeper into Palo Alto Networks, and take a look at how and why that company has held up so well and what to expect at Ignite, Palo Alto's big user conference coming up later this month in Las Vegas. We'll be there with theCube. Okay, many thanks to Alex Myerson on production and manages the podcast, Ken Schiffman as well, as our newest edition to our Boston studio. Great to have you Ken. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our EIC over at Silicon Angle. He does some great editing for us. Thank you to all. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com, or you can email me directly David.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @DVellante, or comment on our LinkedIn posts. Please do checkout etr.ai, they got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (upbeat music)

>>From the Cube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr. This is breaking analysis with Dave Ante. >>Have you ever been driving on the highway and traffic suddenly slows way down and then after a little while it picks up again and you're cruising along and you're thinking, Okay, hey, that was weird. But it's clear sailing now. Off we go, only to find out in a bit that the traffic is building up ahead again, forcing you to pump the brakes as the traffic pattern ebbs and flows well. Welcome to the Seesaw economy. The fed induced fire that prompted an unprecedented rally in tech is being purposefully extinguished now by that same fed. And virtually every sector of the tech industry is having to reset its expectations, including the cloud segment. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by etr. In this breaking analysis will review the implications of the earnings announcements from the big three cloud players, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google who announced this week. >>And we'll update you on our quarterly IAS forecast and share the latest from ETR with a focus on cloud computing. Now, before we get into the new data, we wanna review something we shared with you on October 14th, just a couple weeks back, this is sort of a, we told you it was coming slide. It's an XY graph that shows ET R'S proprietary net score methodology on the vertical axis. That's a measure of spending momentum, spending velocity, and an overlap or presence in the dataset that's on the X axis. That's really a measure of pervasiveness. In the survey, the table, you see that table insert there that shows Wiki Bond's Q2 estimates of IAS revenue for the big four hyperscalers with their year on year growth rates. Now we told you at the time, this is data from the July TW 22 ETR survey and the ETR hadn't released its October survey results at that time. >>This was just a couple weeks ago. And while we couldn't share the specific data from the October survey, we were able to get a glimpse and we depicted the slowdown that we saw in the October data with those dotted arrows kind of down into the right, we said at the time that we were seeing and across the board slowdown even for the big three cloud vendors. Now, fast forward to this past week and we saw earnings releases from Alphabet, Microsoft, and just last night Amazon. Now you may be thinking, okay, big deal. The ETR survey data didn't really tell us anything we didn't already know. But judging from the negative reaction in the stock market to these earnings announcements, the degree of softness surprised a lot of investors. Now, at the time we didn't update our forecast, it doesn't make sense for us to do that when we're that close to earning season. >>And now that all the big three ha with all the big four with the exception of Alibaba have announced we've, we've updated. And so here's that data. This chart lays out our view of the IS and PAs worldwide revenue. Basically it's cloud infrastructure with an attempt to exclude any SaaS revenue so we can make an apples to apples comparison across all the clouds. Now the reason that actual is in quotes is because Microsoft and Google don't report IAS revenue, but they do give us clues and kind of directional commentary, which we then triangulate with other data that we have from the channel and ETR surveys and just our own intelligence. Now the second column there after the vendor name shows our previous estimates for q3, and then next to that we show our actuals. Same with the growth rates. And then we round out the chart with that lighter blue color highlights, the full year estimates for revenue and growth. >>So the key takeaways are that we shaved about $4 billion in revenue and roughly 300 basis points of growth off of our full year estimates. AWS had a strong July but exited Q3 in the mid 20% growth rate year over year. So we're using that guidance, you know, for our Q4 estimates. Azure came in below our earlier estimates, but Google actually exceeded our expectations. Now the compression in the numbers is in our view of function of the macro demand climate, we've made every attempt to adjust for constant currency. So FX should not be a factor in this data, but it's sure you know that that ma the the, the currency effects are weighing on those companies income statements. And so look, this is the fundamental dynamic of a cloud model where you can dial down consumption when you need to and dial it up when you need to. >>Now you may be thinking that many big cloud customers have a committed level of spending in order to get better discounts. And that's true. But what's happening we think is they'll reallocate that spend toward, let's say for example, lower cost storage tiers or they may take advantage of better price performance processors like Graviton for example. That is a clear trend that we're seeing and smaller companies that were perhaps paying by the drink just on demand, they're moving to reserve instance models to lower their monthly bill. So instead of taking the easy way out and just spending more companies are reallocating their reserve capacity toward lower cost. So those sort of lower cost services, so they're spending time and effort optimizing to get more for, for less whereas, or get more for the same is really how we should, should, should phrase it. Whereas during the pandemic, many companies were, you know, they perhaps were not as focused on doing that because business was booming and they had a response. >>So they just, you know, spend more dial it up. So in general, as they say, customers are are doing more with, with the same. Now let's look at the growth dynamic and spend some time on that. I think this is important. This data shows worldwide quarterly revenue growth rates back to Q1 2019 for the big four. So a couple of interesting things. The data tells us during the pandemic, you saw both AWS and Azure, but the law of large numbers and actually accelerate growth. AWS especially saw progressively increasing growth rates throughout 2021 for each quarter. Now that trend, as you can see is reversed in 2022 for aws. Now we saw Azure come down a bit, but it's still in the low forties in terms of percentage growth. While Google actually saw an uptick in growth this last quarter for GCP by our estimates as GCP is becoming an increasingly large portion of Google's overall cloud business. >>Now, unfortunately Google Cloud continues to lose north of 850 million per quarter, whereas AWS and Azure are profitable cloud businesses even though Alibaba is suffering its woes from China. And we'll see how they come in when they report in mid-November. The overall hyperscale market grew at 32% in Q3 in terms of worldwide revenue. So the slowdown isn't due to the repatriation or competition from on-prem vendors in our view, it's a macro related trend. And cloud will continue to significantly outperform other sectors despite its massive size. You know, on the repatriation point, it just still doesn't show up in the data. The A 16 Z article from Sarah Wong and Martin Martin Kasa claiming that repatriation was inevitable as a means to lower cost of good sold for SaaS companies. You know, while that was thought provoking, it hasn't shown up in the numbers. And if you read the financial statements of both AWS and its partners like Snowflake and you dig into the, to the, to the quarterly reports, you'll see little notes and comments with their ongoing negotiations to lower cloud costs for customers. >>AWS and no doubt execs at Azure and GCP understand that the lifetime value of a customer is worth much more than near term gross margin. And you can expect the cloud vendors to strike a balance between profitability, near term profitability anyway and customer attention. Now, even though Google Cloud platform saw accelerated growth, we need to put that in context for you. So GCP, by our estimate, has now crossed over the $3 billion for quarter market actually did so last quarter, but its growth rate accelerated to 42% this quarter. And so that's a good sign in our view. But let's do a quick little comparison with when AWS and Azure crossed the $3 billion mark and compare their growth rates at the time. So if you go back to to Q2 2016, as we're showing in this chart, that's around the time that AWS hit 3 billion per quarter and at the same time was growing at 58%. >>Azure by our estimates crossed that mark in Q4 2018 and at that time was growing at 67%. Again, compare that to Google's 42%. So one would expect Google's growth rate would be higher than its competitors at this point in the MO in the maturity of its cloud, which it's, you know, it's really not when you compared to to Azure. I mean they're kind of con, you know, comparable now but today, but, but you'll go back, you know, to that $3 billion mark. But more so looking at history, you'd like to see its growth rate at this point of a maturity model at least over 50%, which we don't believe it is. And one other point on this topic, you know, my business friend Matt Baker from Dell often says it's not a zero sum game, meaning there's plenty of opportunity exists to build value on top of hyperscalers. >>And I would totally agree it's not a dollar for dollar swap if you can continue to innovate. But history will show that the first company in makes the most money. Number two can do really well and number three tends to break even. Now maybe cloud is different because you have Microsoft software estate and the power behind that and that's driving its IAS business and Google ads are funding technology buildouts for, for for Google and gcp. So you know, we'll see how that plays out. But right now by this one measurement, Google is four years behind Microsoft in six years behind aws. Now to the point that cloud will continue to outpace other markets, let's, let's break this down a bit in spending terms and see why this claim holds water. This is data from ET r's latest October survey that shows the granularity of its net score or spending velocity metric. >>The lime green is new adoptions, so they're adding the platform, the forest green is spending more 6% or more. The gray bars spending is flat plus or minus, you know, 5%. The pinkish colors represent spending less down 6% or worse. And the bright red shows defections or churn of the platform. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get what's called net score, which is that blue dot that you can see on each of the bars. So what you see in the table insert is that all three have net scores above 40%, which is a highly elevated measure. Microsoft's net scores above 60% AWS well into the fifties and GCP in the mid forties. So all good. Now what's happening with all three is more customers are keep keeping their spending flat. So a higher percentage of customers are saying, our spending is now flat than it was in previous quarters and that's what's accounting for the compression. >>But the churn of all three, even gcp, which we reported, you know, last quarter from last quarter survey was was five x. The other two is actually very low in the single digits. So that might have been an anomaly. So that's a very good sign in our view. You know, again, customers aren't repatriating in droves, it's just not a trend that we would bet on, maybe makes for a FUD or you know, good marketing head, but it's just not a big deal. And you can't help but be impressed with both Microsoft and AWS's performance in the survey. And as we mentioned before, these companies aren't going to give up customers to try and preserve a little bit of gross margin. They'll do what it takes to keep people on their platforms cuz they'll make up for it over time with added services and improved offerings. >>Now, once these companies acquire a customer, they'll be very aggressive about keeping them. So customers take note, you have negotiating leverage, so use it. Okay, let's look at another cut at the cloud market from the ETR data set. Here's the two dimensional view, again, it's back, it's one of our favorites. Net score or spending momentum plotted against presence. And the data set, that's the x axis net score on the, on the vertical axis, this is a view of et r's cloud computing sector sector. You can see we put that magic 40% dotted red line in the table showing and, and then that the table inserts shows how the data are plotted with net score against presence. I e n in the survey, notably only the big three are above the 40% line of the names that we're showing here. The oth there, there are others. >>I mean if you put Snowflake on there, it'd be higher than any of these names, but we'll dig into that name in a later breaking analysis episode. Now this is just another way of quantifying the dominance of AWS and Azure, not only relative to Google, but the other cloud platforms out there. So we've, we've taken the opportunity here to plot IBM and Oracle, which both own a public cloud. Their performance is largely a reflection of them migrating their install bases to their respective public clouds and or hybrid clouds. And you know, that's fine, they're in the game. That's a point that we've made, you know, a number of times they're able to make it through the cloud, not whole and they at least have one, but they simply don't have the business momentum of AWS and Azure, which is actually quite impressive because AWS and Azure are now as large or larger than IBM and Oracle. >>And to show this type of continued growth that that that Azure and AWS show at their size is quite remarkable and customers are starting to recognize the viability of on-prem hi, you know, hybrid clouds like HPE GreenLake and Dell's apex. You know, you may say, well that's not cloud, but if the customer thinks it is and it was reporting in the survey that it is, we're gonna continue to report this view. You know, I don't know what's happening with H P E, They had a big down tick this quarter and I, and I don't read too much into that because their end is still pretty small at 53. So big fluctuations are not uncommon with those types of smaller ends, but it's over 50. So, you know, we did notice a a a negative within a giant public and private sector, which is often a, a bellwether giant public private is big public companies and large private companies like, like a Mars for example. >>So it, you know, it looks like for HPE it could be an outlier. We saw within the Fortune 1000 HPE E'S cloud looked actually really good and it had good spending momentum in that sector. When you di dig into the industry data within ETR dataset, obviously we're not showing that here, but we'll continue to monitor that. Okay, so where's this Leave us. Well look, this is really a tactical story of currency and macro headwinds as you can see. You know, we've laid out some of the points on this slide. The action in the stock market today, which is Friday after some of the soft earnings reports is really robust. You know, we'll see how it ends up in the day. So maybe this is a sign that the worst is over, but we don't think so. The visibility from tech companies is murky right now as most are guiding down, which indicates that their conservative outlook last quarter was still too optimistic. >>But as it relates to cloud, that platform is not going anywhere anytime soon. Sure, there are potential disruptors on the horizon, especially at the edge, but we're still a long ways off from, from the possibility that a new economic model emerges from the edge to disrupt the cloud and the opportunities in the cloud remain strong. I mean, what other path is there? Really private cloud. It was kind of a bandaid until the on-prem guys could get their a as a service models rolled out, which is just now happening. The hybrid thing is real, but it's, you know, defensive for the incumbents until they can get their super cloud investments going. Super cloud implying, capturing value above the hyperscaler CapEx, you know, call it what you want multi what multi-cloud should have been, the metacloud, the Uber cloud, whatever you like. But there are opportunities to play offense and that's clearly happening in the cloud ecosystem with the likes of Snowflake, Mongo, Hashi Corp. >>Hammer Spaces is a startup in this area. Aviatrix, CrowdStrike, Zeke Scaler, Okta, many, many more. And even the projects we see coming out of enterprise players like Dell, like with Project Alpine and what Pure Storage is doing along with a number of other of the backup vendors. So Q4 should be really interesting, but the real story is the investments that that companies are making now to leverage the cloud for digital transformations will be paying off down the road. This is not 1999. We had, you know, May might have had some good ideas and admittedly at a lot of bad ones too, but you didn't have the infrastructure to service customers at a low enough cost like you do today. The cloud is that infrastructure and so far it's been transformative, but it's likely the best is yet to come. Okay, let's call this a rap. >>Many thanks to Alex Morrison who does production and manages the podcast. Also Can Schiffman is our newest edition to the Boston Studio. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight helped get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Ho is our editor in chief over@siliconangle.com, who does some wonderful editing for us. Thank you. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search breaking analysis podcast. I publish each week on wiki bond.com at silicon angle.com. And you can email me at David dot valante@siliconangle.com or DM me at Dante or comment on my LinkedIn posts. And please do checkout etr.ai. They got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Valante for the Cube Insights powered by etr. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on breaking analysis.

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The technology spending outlook is not pretty and very much unpredictable right now. The negative sentiment is of course being driven by the macroeconomic factors in earnings forecasts that have been coming down all year in an environment of rising interest rates. And what's worse, is many people think earnings estimates are still too high. But it's understandable why there's so much uncertainty. I mean, technology is still booming, digital transformations are happening in earnest, leading companies have momentum and they got cash runways. And moreover, the CEOs of these leading companies are still really optimistic. But strong guidance in an environment of uncertainty is somewhat risky. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights Powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we share takeaways from ETR'S latest spending survey, which was released to their private clients on October 21st. Today, we're going to review the macro spending data. We're going to share where CIOs think their cloud spend is headed. We're going to look at the actions that organizations are taking to manage uncertainty and then review some of the technology companies that have the most positive and negative outlooks in the ETR data set. Let's first look at the sample makeup from the latest ETR survey. ETR captured more than 1300 respondents in this latest survey. Its highest figure for the year and the quality and seniority of respondents just keeps going up each time we dig into the data. We've got large contributions as you can see here from sea level executives in a broad industry focus. Now the survey is still North America centric with 20% of the respondents coming from overseas and there is a bias toward larger organizations. And nonetheless, we're still talking well over 400 respondents coming from SMBs. Now ETR for those of you who don't know, conducts a quarterly spending intention survey and they also do periodic drilldowns. So just by the way of review, let's take a look at the expectations in the latest drilldown survey for IT spending. Before we look at the broader technology spending intentions survey data, followers of this program know that we reported on this a couple of weeks ago, spending expectations that peaked last December at 8.3% are now down to 5.5% with a slight uptick expected for next year as shown here. Now one CIO in the ETR community said these figures could be understated because of inflation. Now that's an interesting comment. Real GDP in the US is forecast to be around 1.5% in 2022. So these figures are significantly ahead of that. Nominal GDP is forecast to be significantly higher than what is shown in that slide. It was over 9% in June for example. And one would interpret that survey respondents are talking about real dollars which reflects inflationary factors in IT spend. So you might say, well if nominal GDP is in the high single digits this means that IT spending is below GDP which is usually not the case. But the flip side of that is technology tends to be deflationary because prices come down over time on a per unit basis, so this would be a normal and even positive trend. But it's mixed right now with prices on hard to find hardware, they're holding more firms. Software, you know, software tends to be driven by lock in and competition and switching costs. So you have those countervailing factors. Services can be inflationary, especially now as wages rise but certain sectors like laptops and semis and NAND are seeing less demand and maybe even some oversupply. So the way to look at this data is on a relative basis. In other words, IT buyers are reporting 280 basis point drop in spending sentiment from the end of last year. Now, something that we haven't shared from the latest drilldown survey which we will now is how IT bar buyers are thinking about cloud adoption. This chart shows responses from 419 IT execs from that drilldown and depicts the percentage of workloads their organizations have in the cloud today and what the expectation is through years from now. And you can see it's 27% today and it's nearly 50% in three years. Now the nuance is if you look at the question, that ETRS, it's they asked about IaaS and PaaS, which to some could include on-prem. Now, let me come back to that. In particular, financial services, IT, telco and retail and services industry cited expectations for the future for three years out that we're well above the average of the mean adoption levels. Regardless of how you interpret this data there's most certainly plenty of public cloud in the numbers. And whether you believe cloud is an operating environment or a place out there in the cloud, there's plenty of room for workloads to move into a cloud model well beyond mid this decade. So you know, as ho hum as we've been toward recent as-a-service models announced from the likes of HPE with GreenLake and Dell with APEX, the timing of those offerings may be pretty good actually. Now let's expand on some of the data that we showed a couple weeks ago. This chart shows responses from 282 execs on actions their organizations are taking over the next three months. And the Deltas are quite traumatic from the early part of this charter than the left hand side. The brown line is hiring freezes, the black line is freezing IT projects, and the green line is hiring increases and that red line is layoffs. And we put a box around the sort of general area of the isolation economy timeframe. And you can see the wild swings on this chart. By mid last summer, people were kickstarting things and more hiring was going on and the black line shows IT project freezes, you know, came way down. And now, or on the way back up as our hiring freezes. So we're seeing these wild swings in organizational actions and strategies which underscores the lack of predictability. As with supply chains around the world, this is likely due to the fact that organizations, pre pandemic they were optimized for efficiency, not a lot of waste rather than business resilience. Meaning, you know, there's again not a lot of fluff in the system or if there was it got flushed out during the pandemic. And so the need for productivity and automation is becoming increasingly important, especially as actions that solely rely on headcount changes are very, very difficult to manage. Now, let's dig into some of the vendor commentary and take a look at some of the names that have momentum and some of the others possibly facing headwinds. Here's a list of companies that stand out in the ETR survey. Snowflake, once again leads the pack with a positive spending outlook. HashiCorp, CrowdStrike, Databricks, Freshworks and ServiceNow, they round out the top six. Microsoft, they seem to always be in the mix, as do a number of other security and related companies including CyberArk, Zscaler, CloudFlare, Elastic, Datadog, Fortinet, Tenable and to a certain extent Akamai, you can kind of put them sort of in that group. You know, CDN, they got to worry about security. Everybody worries about security, but especially the CDNs. Now the other software names that are highlighted here include Workday and Salesforce. On the negative side, you can see Dynatrace saw some negatives in the latest survey especially around its analytics business. Security is generally holding up better than other sectors but it's still seeing greater levels of pressure than it had previously. So lower spend. And defections relative to its observability peers, that's really for Dynatrace. Now the other one that was somewhat surprising is IBM. You see the IBM was sort of in that negative realm here but IBM reported an outstanding quarter this past week with double digit revenue growth, strong momentum in software, consulting, mainframes and other infrastructure like storage. It's benefiting from the Kyndryl restructuring and it's on track IBM to deliver 10 billion in free cash flow this year. Red Hat is performing exceedingly well and growing in the very high teens. And so look, IBM is in the midst of a major transformation and it seems like a company that is really focused now with hybrid cloud being powered by Red Hat and consulting and a decade plus of AI investments finally paying off. Now the other big thing we'll add is, IBM was once an outstanding acquire of companies and it seems to be really getting its act together on the M&A front. Yes, Red Hat was a big pill to swallow but IBM has done a number of smaller acquisitions, I think seven this year. Like for example, Turbonomic, which is starting to pay off. Arvind Krishna has the company focused once again. And he and Jim J. Kavanaugh, IBM CFO, seem to be very confident on the guidance that they're giving in their business. So that's a real positive in our view for the industry. Okay, the last thing we'd like to do is take 12 of the companies from the previous chart and plot them in context. Now these companies don't necessarily compete with each other, some do. But they are standouts in the ETR survey and in the market. What we're showing here is a view that we like to often show, it's net score or spending velocity on the vertical axis. And it's a measure, that's a measure of the net percentage of customers that are spending more on a particular platform. So ETR asks, are you spending more or less? They subtract less from the mores. I mean I'm simplifying, but that's what net score is. Now in the horizontal axis, that is a measure of overlap which is which measures presence or pervasiveness in the dataset. So bigger the better. We've inserted a table that informs how the dots in the companies are positioned. These companies are all in the green in terms of net score. And that right most column in the table insert is indicative of their presence in the dataset, the end. So higher, again, is better for both columns. Two other notes, the red dotted line there you see at 40%. Anything over that indicates an highly elevated spending momentum for a given platform. And we purposefully took Microsoft out of the mix in this chart because it skews the data due to its large size. Everybody else would cluster on the left and Microsoft would be all alone in the right. So we take them out. Now as we noted earlier, Snowflake once again leads with a net score of 64%, well above the 40% line. Having said that, while adoption rates for Snowflake remains strong the company's spending velocity in the survey has come down to Earth. And many more customers are shifting from where they were last year and the year before in growth mode i.e. spending more year to year with Snowflake to now shifting more toward flat spending. So a plus or minus 5%. So that puts pressure on Snowflake's net score, just based on the math as to how ETR calculates, its proprietary net score methodology. So Snowflake is by no means insulated completely to the macro factors. And this was seen especially in the data in the Fortune 500 cut of the survey for Snowflake. We didn't show that here, just giving you anecdotal commentary from the survey which is backed up by data. So, it showed steeper declines in the Fortune 500 momentum. But overall, Snowflake, very impressive. Now what's more, note the position of Streamlit relative to Databricks. Streamlit is an open source python framework for developing data driven, data science oriented apps. And it's ironic that it's net score and shared in is almost identical to those of data bricks, as the aspirations of Snowflake and Databricks are beginning to collide. Now, however, the Databricks net score has held up very well over the past year and is in the 92nd percentile of its machine learning and AI peers. And while it's seeing some softness, like Snowflake in the Fortune 500, Databricks has steadily moved to the right on the X axis over the last several surveys even though it was unable to get to the public markets and do an IPO during the lockdown tech bubble. Let's come back to the chart. ServiceNow is impressive because it's well above the 40% mark and it has 437 shared in on this cut, the largest of any company that we chose to plot here. The only real negative on ServiceNow is, more large customers are keeping spending levels flat. That's putting a little bit pressure on its net score, but that's just conservatives. It's kind of like Snowflakes, you know, same thing but in a larger scale. But it's defections, the ServiceNow as in Snowflake as well. It's defections remain very, very low, really low churn below 2% for ServiceNow, in fact, within the dataset. Now it's interesting to also see Freshworks hit the list. You can see them as one of the few ITSM vendors that has momentum and can potentially take on ServiceNow. Workday, on this chart, it's the other big app player that's above the 40% line and we're only showing Workday HCM, FYI, in this graphic. It's Workday Financials, that offering, is below the 40% line just for reference. Now let's talk about CrowdStrike. We attended Falcon last month, CrowdStrike's user conference and we're very impressed with the product visio, the company's execution, it's growing partnerships. And you can see in this graphic, the ETR survey data confirms the company's stellar performance with a net score at 50%, well above the 40% mark. And importantly, more than 300 mentions. That's second only to ServiceNow, amongst the 12 companies that we've chosen to highlight here. Only Microsoft, which is not shown here, has a higher net score in the security space than CrowdStrike. And when it comes to presence, CrowdStrike now has caught up to Splunk in terms of pervasion in the survey. Now CyberArk and Zscaler are the other two security firms that are right at that 40% red dotted line. CyberArk for names with over a hundred citations in the security sector, is only behind Microsoft and CrowdStrike. Zscaler for its part in the survey is seeing strong momentum in the Fortune 500, unlike what we said for Snowflake. And its pervasion on the X-axis has been steadily increasing. Again, not that Snowflake and CrowdStrike compete with each other but they're too prominent names and it's just interesting to compare peers and business models. Cloudflare, Elastic and Datadog are slightly below the 40% mark but they made the sort of top 12 that we showed to highlight here and they continue to have positive sentiment in the survey. So, what are the big takeaways from this latest survey, this really quick snapshot that we've taken. As you know, over the next several weeks we're going to dig into it more and more. As we've previously reported, the tide is going out and it's taking virtually all the tech ships with it. But in many ways the current market is a story of heightened expectations coming down to Earth, miscalculations about the economic patterns and the swings and imperfect visibility. Leading Barclays analyst, Ramo Limchao ask the question to guide or not to guide in a recent research note he wrote. His point being, should companies guide or should they be more cautious? Many companies, if not most companies, are actually giving guidance. Indeed, when companies like Oracle and IBM are emphatic about their near term outlook and their visibility, it gives one confidence. On the other hand, reasonable people are asking, will the red hot valuations that we saw over the last two years from the likes of Snowflake, CrowdStrike, MongoDB, Okta, Zscaler, and others. Will they return? Or are we in for a long, drawn out, sideways exercise before we see sustained momentum? And to that uncertainty, we add elections and public policy. It's very hard to predict right now. I'm sorry to be like a two-handed lawyer, you know. On the one hand, on the other hand. But that's just the way it is. Let's just say for our part, we think that once it's clear that interest rates are on their way back down and we'll stabilize it under 4% and we have clarity on the direction of inflation, wages, unemployment and geopolitics, the wild swings and sentiment will subside. But when that happens is anyone's guess. If I had to peg, I'd say 18 months, which puts us at least into the spring of 2024. What's your prediction? You know, it's almost that time of year. Let's hear it. Please keep in touch and let us know what you think. Okay, that's it for now. Many thanks to Alex Myerson. He is on production and he manages the podcast for us. Ken Schiffman as well is our newest addition to the Boston Studio. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hoff is our EIC, editor-in-chief over at SiliconANGLE. He does some wonderful editing for us. Thank you all. Remember all these episodes, they are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search breaking analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante. Or feel free to comment on our LinkedIn posts. And please do check out etr.ai. They've got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. If you haven't checked that out, you should. It'll give you an advantage. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights Powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. Be well and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (soft upbeat music)

>> From the Cube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Is the glass half full or half empty? Well, it depends on how you want to look at it. CIOs are tapping the breaks on spending, that's clear. The latest macro survey data from ETR quantifies what we already know to be true, that IT spend is decelerating. CIOs and IT buyers forecast that their tech spend will grow by 5.5% this year. That's a meaningful deceleration from near year end 2021 expectations. But these levels are still well above historical norms. So while the feel good factor may be in some jeopardy, overall things are pretty good, at least for now. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we update you in the latest macro tech spending data from Enterprise Technology Research, including strategies that organizations are employing to cut costs, and which project categories continue to see the most traction. Now, CIOs were much more optimistic at the end of last year than they are today. Back then they thought their aggregates spend would increase by more than 8%. Of course, at that time the expectation was that the economy was ready to make a semi ordered return to normal, and that didn't happen as you well know. And you can see here the expectation for spending this year is down to 5.5% growth, as we said, and this is based on the most recent ETR CIO and IT buyer survey, which includes more than 1100 responses. So we started the year above 8% then made a meaningful decline into the mid sixes and nine months into the year, we're now in the mid fives, but this is still two to 300 basis points above historical norms for IT spending. And looking ahead to next year, CIOs are expecting accelerated growth edging back up toward that 6% level. Now as noted here, the visibility on this is probably less clear than pre COVID years of course, but the bottom line is digital transformations are continuing to push it spending above historical levels. Now the problem as we know, is earning estimates are coming down and forecasts are being lowered every day. I mean, as the saying goes the first disappointment is rarely the last. Even the semiconductor industry is seeing softness. Just this past week we saw AMD lower its quarterly revenue forecast by more than a billion dollars, as PC demand in the second half has significantly softened. But again, that's relative to some pretty amazing PC growth in the past couple of years thanks to the isolation economy. So we do see CIOs tapping the brakes, and these data points here tell an interesting story. ETR asked respondents about various actions that they're taking and these two stood out. The top line is, "We're accelerating new IT projects," and the bottom line is, "We're freezing IT projects," and you can see the convergence of those two lines, which of course signals the down. But again, these are not alarming data points. If you think about history. If you go back to Q1 2020, for example, just before the pandemic, that top line that was at 12% versus where it is today at 25%. And if you look at project freezes, they were at 22% in Q1 of 2020, which is significantly higher than today. So relatively speaking the spending dynamic is still strong. It just doesn't feel that way because we're coming out of an historic anomaly. Now, ETR asked a follow up question to respondents that indicated that spending would be down this quarter relative to the same quarter last year. So they wanted to better understand the most common actions that organizations would take to save money, and that's what this chart shows. The most common approach is still to consolidate redundant vendors across the lines of business. That was over 30%, as you can see here in the first set of bars. So presumably CIOs now have the latitude to go after so-called shadow projects, shadow IT, and implement standards across the organization via vendor consolidation. As well, there's a big jump in the survey from 14% to 20% of respondents saying that they were going after the Cloud bill, and that relates to the fourth set of bars which is scrutinizing consumption based services. So combined, 45% of respondents are looking at reducing their on demand spend. Now, some of that may be SaaS related, but most of the SaaS spend is committed, so pre-committed, but we do see organizations doing more audits and trying to eliminate or reduce orphaned licenses. Now the last data point that we want to focus on is the technology sectors that are of the highest priority. You can see here on the set of bars on the left while cybersecurity remains the top technology area, even this sector is showing a little bit of softness. What's really notable is the uptick in data related areas, that second set of bars, this category is now the second most cited, taking over from Cloud, which as you can see, remain strong, and of course Cloud continues to be a key component of digital transformations. As we've previously reported, machine learning, AI, and RPA are somewhat more strategic and more discretionary, and they've dropped below the 40% mark in terms of net score in the overall survey. We're not showing that data here, but we covered this in our last Breaking Analysis ahead of our UI path event. Now you have to remember these are the top seven sectors, and there are dozens in the ETR taxonomy, so making this list is goodness from a spending perspective. So even though there's some softness in most of these categories, these are the ones CIOs are most focused on addressing. So the big takeaways of this data are spending targets are coming down to the mid 5% range, but this is meaningfully higher than historical norms. And while CIOs, they are pumping the brakes on projects, they're still moving forward at rates faster than pre COVID levels and they're freezing fewer projects. Remember, this as well, this could be a skill shortage in play, but the slowdown is more likely related to the economic uncertainty. You know, we're seeing the two-sided coin of pay by the drink consumption models, right? You can dial it up as as you need to but you can also dial it down, and that's one of the alluring features of on demand. And we're seeing firms give more scrutiny to the Cloud bill, why wouldn't they? And there's a bit of unsurprising backlash to the flaws in today's SaaS pricing model that locks you in for specified terms. So people, when their term comes up are really going to scrutinize whether or not they have orphan licenses and try to reduce those. And it appears that the real savings can come from eliminating redundant vendors. That seems to be the biggest, you know, number one strategy, and that could favor some of the larger firms, think Oracle, Dell, Salesforce ServiceNow, IBM, HPE, Cisco, and others, you know, they may benefit from having more of larger footprint across the organization. You know, having that one throat to choke, you know one back to pat, as some like to say, but they could benefit those larger companies in least in the near term. Now having said that, we do see an uptick in data related areas as a priority for CIOs, and that could mean companies like Snowflake are in a strong position and can continue to thrive. You know, even though as we reported a couple of weeks ago, virtually all companies and sectors in the ETR data set are showing some softness related to spending a momentum from previous quarters. ETR will have its... will release its results next week and then we'll dig into the specific vendor action relative to previous quarters. So look, it feels like a meaningful slowdown but the sky is by no means falling. There are these kind of out of our control factors like interest rates, and Ukraine, and oil supply, and wages, et cetera, that are creating this uncertainty and causing firms to be more cautious. But generally we remain optimistic as leading tech companies are pretty well managed and have a lot of runway on the balance sheets, and can adjust costs to reflect the uncertain environment and remain flexible in their business models in doing so. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Myerson who's on production and he also manages the podcast for Breaking Analysis. Ken Schiffman is also out of our Boston studio as well. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight, they help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters, and Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at Silicon Angle who posts our Breaking Analysis and does some great editing. So thank you to all. Remember all these episodes are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen all you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, and you can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante, or feel free to comment on our LinkedIn posts. And please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave for the theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (relaxing music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> New data from ETR's soon to be released April survey, shows a clear deceleration in spending and a more cautious posture from technology buyers. Just this week, we saw sell side downgrades in hardware companies like Dell and HP and revised guidance from high flyer UiPath, citing exposures to Russia, Europe and certain sales execution challenges, but these headlines, we think are a canary in the coal mine. According to ETR analysis and channel checks in theCUBE, the real story is these issues are not isolated. Rather we're seeing signs of caution from buyers across the board in enterprise tech. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we are the bearers of bad news. Don't shoot the messenger. We'll share a first look at fresh data that suggests a tightening in tech spending calling for 6% growth this year which is below our January prediction of 8% for 2022. Now, unfortunately the party may be coming to an end at least for a while. You know, it's really not surprising, right? We've had a two year record run in tech spending and meteoric rises in high flying technology stocks. Hybrid work, equipping and securing remote workers. The forced march to digital that we talk about sometimes. These were all significant tailwinds for tech companies. The NASDAQ peaked late last year and then as you can see in this chart, bottomed in mid-March of 2022, and it made a nice run up through the 29th of last month, but the mini rally appears to be in jeopardy with FED rate hikes, Russia, supply chain challenges. There's a lot of uncertainty so we should expect the C-suite to be saying, hey, wait slow down. Now we don't think the concerns are confined to companies with exposure to Russia and Europe. We think it's more broad based than that and we're seeing caution from technology companies and tech buyers that we think is prudent, given the conditions. You know, looks like the two year party has ended and as my ETR colleague Erik Bradley said, a little hangover shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. So let's get right to the new spending data. I'm limited to what I can share with you today because ETR is in its quiet period and hasn't released full results yet outside of its client base. But, they did put out an alert today and I can share this slide. It shows the expectation on spending growth from more than a thousand CIOs and IT buyers who responded in the most recent survey. It measures their expectations for spending. The key focus areas that I want you to pay attention to in this data are the yellow bars. The most recent survey is the yellow compared to the blue and the gray bars, which are the December and September '21 surveys respectively. And you can see a steep drop from last year in Q1, lowered expectations for Q2 in the far right, a drop from nearly 9% last September to around 6% today. Now you may think a 200 basis point downgrade from our prediction in January of 8% seems somewhat benign, but in a $4 trillion IT market, that's 80 billion coming off the income statements of some tech companies. Now the good news is that 6% growth is still very healthy and higher than pre pandemic spending levels. And the buyers we've talked to this week are saying, look, we're still spending money. We just have to be more circumspect about where and how fast. Now, there were a few other callouts in the ETR data and in my discussions today with Erik Bradley on this. First, it looks like in response to expected supply chain constraints that buyers pulled forward their orders late last year and earlier this year. You remember when we couldn't buy toilet paper, people started the stockpile and it created this rubber banding effect. So we see clear signs of receding momentum in the PC and laptop market. But as we said, this is not isolated to PCs, UiPath's earning guidance confirm this but the story doesn't end there. This isn't isolated to UiPath in our view, rather it's a more based slowdown. The other big sign is spending in outsourced IT which is showing a meaningful deceleration in the last survey, showing a net score drop from 13% in January to 6% today. Net score remember is a measure of the net percentage of customers in the survey that on balance are spending more than last survey. It's derived by subtracting the percent of customers spending less from those spending more. And there's a, that's a 700 basis point drop in three months. This isn't a market where you can't hire enough people. The percent of companies hiring has gone from 10% during the pandemic to 50% today according to recent data from ETR. And we know there's still an acute skills shortage. So you would expect more IT outsourcing, but you don't see that in the data, it's down. And as this quote from Erik Bradley explains, historically, when outsourced IT drops like this, especially in a tight labor market, it's not good news for IT spending. All right, now, the other interesting callout from ETR were some specific company names that appear to be seeing the biggest change in spending momentum. Here's the list of those companies that all have meaningful exposure to Europe. That's really where the focus was. SAP has big exposure to on-premises installations and of course, Europe as well. ServiceNow has European exposure and also broad based exposure in IT in across the globe, especially in the US. Zoom didn't go to the moon, no surprise there given the quasi return to work and Zoom fatigue. McAfee is a bit of a concern because security seemed to be one of those areas, when you look at some of the other data, that is per actually insulated from all the spending caution. Of course we saw the Okta hack and we're going to cover that next week with hopefully some new data from ETR, but generally security's been holding up pretty well. You look at CrowdStrike, you look at Zscaler in particular. Adobe's another company that's had a nice bounce in the last couple of weeks. Accenture, again, speaks to that outsourcing headwinds that we mentioned earlier. And now the Google Cloud platform is a bit of a concern. It's still elevated overall, you know but down and well down in Europe. Under that magic, you know we often show that magic 40% dotted line, that red dotted line of net score anything above that we cite as elevated. Well, some important callouts to hear that you see companies that have Euro exposure. And again, we see this as just not confined to Europe and this is something we're going to pay close attention to and continue to report on in the next several weeks and months. All right, so what should we expect from here? The Ark investment stocks of Cathie Wood fame have been tracking in a downward trend since last November, meaning, you know, these high PE stocks are making lower lows and higher, sorry, lower highs and lower lows since then, right? The trend is not their friend. Investors I talk to are being much more cautious about buying the dip. They're raising cash and being a little bit more patient. You know, traders can trade in this environment but unless you can pay attention to in a minute by minute you're going to get whipsawed. Investors tell me that they're still eyeing big tech even though Apple has been on a recent tear and has some exposure with supply change challenges, they're looking for maybe entry points in, within that chop for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. And look, as I've been stressing, 6% spending growth is still very solid. It's a case of resetting the outlook relative to previous expectations. So when you zoom out and look at the growth in data, getting digital right, security investments, automation, cloud, AI containers, all the fundamentals are really strong and they have not changed. They're all powering this new digital economy and we believe it's just prudence versus a shift in the importance of IT. Now, one point of caution is there's a lot of discussion around a shift in global economies. Supply chain uncertainty, persistent semiconductor shortages especially in areas like, you know driver ICs and boring things like parts for displays and analog and micro controllers and power regulators. Stuff that's, you know, just not playing nice these days and wreaking havoc. And this creates uncertainty, which sometimes can pick up momentum in a snowballing effect. And that's something that we're watching closely and we're going to be vigilant reporting to you when we see changes in the data and in our forecast even when we think our forecast are wrong. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Merson who does the production and podcasts for Breaking Analysis and Stephanie Chan who provides background research. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, and all theCUBE writers they help get the word out, and thanks to Rob Hof, our EIC over at SiliconANGLE. Remember I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcasts. etr.ai that's where you can get access to all this survey data and make your own cuts. It's awesome, check that out. Keep in touch with me. You can email me at dave.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can hit me up on LinkedIn. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Be safe, stay well, and we'll see you next time. (gentle music)

(upbeat music) >> Welcome back, everyone, to theCUBE's live coverage, day one wrap-up. I'm John Furrier, with Dave Vellante. We have Jerry Chen, special guest who's been with us every year on theCUBE since inception. Certainly every AWS re:Invent, nine years straight. Jerry Chen, great to see you for our guest analyst's wrap up VC general partner, Greylock partners, good to see you. >> John, Dave, it's great to see you guys. Thanks for having me again. It wouldn't be re:Invent without the three of us sitting here and we missed last year, right, because of COVID. So we have to make up for lost time. >> John: We did a virtual one- >> Dave: we did virtual stuff= >> John: wasn't the same as in-person. >> Dave: Definitely not the same. >> Jerry: Not the same thing. So, it's good to see you guys again in person, and less than 6 feet apart. >> Cheers, yeah. >> And 7,000 people here, showing that the event's still relevant. >> Jerry: Yeah. >> Some people would kill for those numbers, it's a bad year for Amazon, down from 60,000. >> Jerry: Yeah. >> So, ecosystem's booming. Okay, let's get to it. Day one in the books, new CEO, new sheriff in town, his name's Adam Selipsky. Your take? >> Well, Adam's new, but he's old, right? Something, you know, like something new, something old, something blue, right? It's so, Adam was early Amazon, so he had that founding DNA. Left, you know, CEO of Tableau, acquired by Salesforce, came back few months ago. So I think it was a great move, because one, he's got the history and culture under Jassy, so he's definitely the Bezos Jassy tree of leadership, but yet he's been outside the bubble. Right? So he actually knows what it means to run a company not on the Amazon platform. So, I think Adam's a great choice to lead AWS for what we call it, like maybe act two, right? Act one, the first X years with Jassy, and maybe this is the second act under Adam. >> Yeah. And he's got- and he was very technical, hung around all the techies, James Hamilton, DeSantis, all the engineers, built that core primitives. Now, as they say, this cloud next gen's here, act two, it's about applications. >> Jerry: Yeah. >> Infrastructure as code is in place. Interesting area. Where's the growth come from? So, look, you know, the ecosystem has got to build these super clouds, or as you say, Castles on the Cloud, which you coined, but you brought this up years ago, that the moats and the value has to be in there somewhere. Do you want to revise that prediction now that you see what's coming from Selipsky? >> Okay, well, so let's refresh. Greylock.com/castles has worked out, like we did, but a lot of thought leadership and the two of you, have informed my thinking at Castles in the Cloud, how to compete against Amazon in the cloud. So you'd argue act one, the startup phase, the first, you know, X years at Amazon was from 2008 to, you know, 2021, the first X years, building the platform, digging the moats. Right? So what did you have? You have castle the platform business, economies of scale, which means decreasing marginal costs and natural network effects. So once the moat's in place and you had huge market share, what do you for act two, right? Now the moats are in place, you can start exploring the moats for I think, Adam talked about in your article, horizontal and verticals, right? Horizontal solutions up the stack, like Amazon Connect, CRM solutions, right? Horizontal apps, maybe the app layer, and verticals, industrials, financials, healthcare, et cetera. So, I think Jassy did a foundation of the castle and now we're seeing, you know, what Adam and his generation would do for act two. >> So he's, so there's almost like an act one A, because if you take the four hyperscalers, they're about, maybe do 120 billion this year, out of, I don't know, pick a number, it's many hundreds of billions, at least in infrastructure. >> Jerry: Correct. >> And those four hyperscalers growing at 35% collectively, right? So there's some growth there, but I feel like there's got to be deeper business integration, right? It's not just about IT transformation, it's about deeper- So that's maybe where this Connect like stuff comes, but are there enough of those? You know, I didn't, I haven't, I didn't hear a lot of that this morning. I heard a little bit, ML- >> Jerry: Sure. >> AI into Connect, but where's the next Connect, right? They've got to do dozens of those in order to go deeper. >> Either, Dave, dozens of those Connects or more of those premise, so the ML announcement was today. So you look at what Twilio did by buying Segment, right? Deconstruct a CRM to compete against Adam Selipsky's old acquire of Salesforce.com. They bought Segment, so Twilio now has communicates, like texting, messaging, email, but all the data come from Segment. >> Dave: With consumption-based pricing. >> With consumption-based pricing. So, right? So that's an example of kind of what the second act of cloud looks like. It may not look like full SaaS apps like Salesforce.com, but these primitives, both horizontally vertically, because again, what does Amazon have as an asset that other guys don't? Install based developers. Developers aren't going to necessarily build or consume SaaS apps, but they're going to consume things like these API's and primitives. And so you look around, what's cloud act two look like? It may not be VM's or containers. It may be API's like Stripe and Billing, Twilio messaging, right? Concepts like that. So, we'll see what the next act at cloud looks like. And they announced a bunch of stuff today, serverless for the data analytics, right? So serverless is this move towards not consuming raw compute and storage, but APIs. >> What about competition? Microsoft is nipping at the heels of AWS. >> Dave: John put them out of business earlier today. [John and Dave Laugh] >> No, I said, quote, I'll just- let me rephrase. I said, if Amazon goes unchecked- >> Jerry: Sure. >> They'll annihilate Microsoft's ecosystem. Because if you're an ISV, why wouldn't you want to run on the best platform? >> Jerry: Sure. >> Speeds and feeds matter when you have these shifts of software development. >> Jerry: You want them both. >> So, you know, I mean, you thought about the 80's, if you were at database, you wanted the best processor. So I think this Annapurna vertical integrated stacks are interesting because if my app runs better and I have a platform, prefabricated or purpose-built platform, to be there for me, I'm going to build a great SaaS app. If it runs faster and it cost less, I'm going to flop to Amazon. That's just, that's my prediction. >> So I think better changes, right? And so I think if you're Amazon, you say cheaper, better, faster, and they're investing in chips, proprietary silicon to run better, faster, their machine learning training chips, but if you're Azure or Google, you got to redefine what better is. And as a startup investor, we're always trying to do category definition, right? Like here's a category by spin. So now, if you're Azure or Google, there are things you can say that are better, and Google argued their chips, their TensorFlow, are better. Azure say our regions, our security, our enterprise readiness is better. And so all of a sudden, the criteria "what's better" changes. So from faster and cheaper to maybe better compliance, better visibility, better manageability, different colors, I don't know, right? You have to change the game , because if you play the same game on Amazon's turf, to your point, John, it- it's game over because they have economies of scale. But I think Azure and Google and other clouds, the superclouds, or subclouds are changing the game, what it means to compete. And so I think what's going on, just two more seconds, from decentralized cloud, being Web 3 and crypto, that's a whole 'nother can of worms, to Edge compute, what Cloudflare are doing with R2 and storage, they're trying to change the name of the game. >> Well, that's right. If you go frontal against Amazon, you're got to get decimated. You got to move the goalposts for better. And I think that's a good way to look at it, Dave. What does better mean? So that's the question that's on the table. What does that look like? And I think that's an unknown, that's coming. Okay, back to the start-ups. Category definition. That's an awesome term. That to me is a key thing. How do you look at what a category is on your sub- on your Castles of the Cloud, you brought up how many categories of- >> Jerry: 33 markets and a bunch of submarkets, yeah. >> Yeah. Explain that concept. >> So, we did Castle in the Clouds where my team looked at all the services offered at Azure, Google, and Amazon. We downloaded the services and recategorized them to like, 30 plus markets and a bunch of submarkets. Because, the reason why is apples to apples, you know, Amazon, Google, Azure all have databases, but they might call them different things. And so I think first things first is, let's give developers and customers kind of apples to apples comparisons. So I think those are known markets. The key in investing in the cloud, or investing in general, is you're either investing in budget replacement, replacing a known market, cheaper, better database, to your point, or a net new market, right? Which is always tricky. So I think the biggest threat to a lot of the startups and incumbents, the biggest threat by startups and incumbents, is either one, do something cheaper, better in a current market, or find a net new market that they haven't thought about yet. And if you can win that net new market before the rest, then that's unbelievable. We call it the, you know, the blue ocean strategy, >> Dave: Is that essentially what Snowflake has done, started with cheaper, better, and now they're building the data cloud? >> Jerry: I think there's- it's evolution, correct. So they said cheaper, better. And the Castle in the Cloud, we talked about, they actually built deep IP. So they went a known category, data warehouses, right? You had Teradata, Redshift, Snowflake cheaper, better, faster. And now let's say, okay, once you have the customers, let's change the name of the game and create a data cloud. And it's TBD whether or not Snowflake can win data cloud. Like we talked about Rockset, one of my investments that's actually move the goalpost saying, oh, data cloud is nice, but real time data is where it's at, and Snowflake and those guys can't play in real time. >> Dave: No, they're not in a position to play in real time data. >> Jerry: Right. >> Dave: I mean, that's right. >> So again, so that's an example of a startup moving the goalpost on what previously was a startup that moved the goalpost on an incumbent. >> Dave: And when you think about Edge, it's going to be real-time AI inferencing at the Edge, and you're right, Snowflake's not set up well at all for that. >> John: So competition wise, how do the people compete? Because this is what Databricks did the same exact thing. I have Ali on the record going back years, "Well, we love Amazon. We're only on Amazon." Now he's talking multicloud. >> So, you know, once you get there, you kind of change your tune cause you've got some scale, but then you got new potential entrants coming in, like Rockset. >> Jerry: Correct. >> So. >> Dave: But then, and if you add up the market caps of just those two companies, Databricks and Snowflake, it's much larger than the database market. So this, we're defining new markets now. >> Jerry: I think there's market cap, especially Snowflake that's in the public market, Databricks is still private, is optimism that there's a second or third act in the database space left to be unlocked. And you look at what's going on in that space, these real-time analytics or real-time apps, for sure there's optimism there. But, but to John's point, you're right, like you earn the right to play the next act, but it's tricky because startups disrupt incumbents and become incumbents, and they're also victims their own success, right? So you're- there's technical debt, there's also business model debt. So you're victims of your own business model, victims of your own success. And so what got you here may not get you to the next phase. And so I think for Amazon, that's a question. For Databricks and Snowflake, that's a question, is what got them here? Can they play to the next act? And look, Apple did it, multiple acts. >> John: Well, I mean, I think I- [Crosstalk] >> John: I think it's whether you take shortcuts or not, if you have debt, you make it a little bit of a shortcut bet. >> Jerry: Yeah. >> Okay. That's cool. But ultimately what you're getting at here is beachhead thinking. Get a beachhead- >> Jerry: Correct. >> Get in the market, and then sequence to a different position. Classic competitive strategy, 101. That's hard to do because you want to win the beachhead- >> I know. >> John: And take a little technical debt and business model debt, cheat a little bit, and then, is it not fortified yet? So beachhead to expansion is the question. >> Jerry: That's every board meeting, John and Dave, that we're in, right? It's called you need a narrow enough wedge to land. And it is like, I don't want the tip of the spear, I want the poison on the tip of a spear, right? [Dave and John Laugh] >> You want, especially in this cloud market, a super focused wedge to land. And the problem is, as a founder, as investor, you're always thinking about the global max, right? Like the ultimate platform winner, but you don't get the right to play the early- the late innings if you don't make it out of the early innings. And so narrow beachhead, sharp wedge, but you got to land in a space, a place of real estate with adjacent tan, adjacent markets, right? Like Uber, black cars, taxi's, food, whatever, right? Snowflake, data warehouse, data cloud. And so I think the key with all startups is you'll hit some ceiling of market size. Is there a second ramp? >> Dave: So it's- the art is when to scale and how fast to scale. >> Right. Picking when, how fast, in which- which best place, it was tough. And so, the best companies are always thinking about their second or third act while the first act's still going. >> John: Yeah. And leveraging cloud to refactor, I think that's the key to Snowflake, was they had the wedge with data warehouse, they saw the position, but refactored and in the cloud with services that they knew Teradata wouldn't use. >> Jerry: Correct. >> And they're in. From there, it's just competitive IP, crank, go to market. >> And then you have the other unnatural things. You have channel, you have installed base of customers, right? And then you start selling more stuff to the same channel, to the same customers. That's what Amazon's doing. All the incumbent's do that. Amazon's got, you know, 300 services now, launching more this week, so now they have channel distribution, right? Every credit card for all the developers, and they have installed base of customers. And so they will just launch new things and serve the customers. So the startups had to disrupt them somehow. >> Well, it's always great to chat with Jerry. Every year we discover and we riff and we identify, in real time, new stuff. We were talking about this whole vertical, horizontal scale and kind of castles early on, years ago. And now it's happened. You were right. Congratulations. That's a great thesis. There's real advantages to build on a cloud. You can get the- you can build a business there. >> Jerry: Right. >> John: That's your thesis. And by the way, these markets are changing. So if you're smart, you can actually compete. >> Jerry: I think you beat, and to Dave's earlier point, you have to adapt, right? And so what's the Darwin thing, it's not the strongest, but the most adaptable. So both- Amazon's adapt and the startups who are the most adaptable will win. >> Dave: Where are you, you guys might've talked about this, where do you stand on the cost of goods sold issue? >> Jerry: Oh, I think everything's true, right? I think you can save money at some scale to repatriate your cloud, but again, Wall Street rewards growth versus COGS, right? So I think you've got a choice between a dollar of growth versus a dollar reducing COGS, people choose growth right now. That may not always be the case, but at some point, if you're a company at some scale and the dollars of growth is slowing down, you definitely have to reduce the dollars in cost. And so you start optimizing cloud costs, and that could be going to Amazon, Azure, or Google, reducing COGS. >> Dave: Negotiate, yeah. >> John: Or, you have no visibility on new net new opportunities. So growth is about new opportunities. >> Correct. >> If you repatriating things, there's no growth. >> Jerry: It's not either, or- >> That's my opinion. >> Jerry: COGS or growth, right? But they're both valid, definitely, so you can do both. And so I don't think- it's what's your priorities, you can't do everything at once. So if I'm a founder or CEO or in this case investor, and I said, "Hey, Dave, and John, if you said I can either save you 25 basis points in gross margin, or I can increase another 10% top line this year", I'm going to say increase the top line, we'll deal with the gross margin later. Not that it's not important, but right now the early phase- >> Priorities. >> Jerry: It's growth. >> Yeah. All right, Jerry Chen, great to see you. Great to have you on, great CUBE alumni, great guest analyst. Thanks for breaking it down. CUBE coverage here in Las Vegas for re:Invent, back in person. Of course, it's a virtual event, we've got a hybrid event for Amazon, as well as theCUBE. I'm John Furrier, you're watching the leader in worldwide tech coverage. Thanks for watching. (Gentle music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante by the dip has been been an effective strategy since the market bottomed in early march last year the approach has been especially successful in tech and even more so for those tech names that one were well positioned for the forced march to digital i sometimes call it i.e remote work online commerce data centric platforms and certain cyber security plays and two already had the cloud figured out the question on investors minds is where to go from here should you avoid some of the high flyers that are richly valued with eye-popping multiples or should you continue to buy the dip and if so which companies that capitalized on the trends from last year will see permanent shifts in spending patterns that make them a solid long-term play hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we shine the spotlight on three companies that may be candidates for a buy the dip strategy and it's our pleasure to welcome in ivana delevco who's the chief investment officer and founder of spear alpha a new research-centric etf focused on industrial technology ivana is a long-time equity analyst with a background in both long and short investing ivana welcome to the program thanks so much for coming on thanks for having me david yeah it's really our pleasure i i want to start with your etf and give the folks a bit more background about you first you know we gotta let people know i'm not an investment pro i'm not an advisor i don't make stock recommendations i don't sell investments so you got to do your own research i have a lot of data so happy to share it but you got to understand your own risks you of course yvonne on the other hand you do offer investment services and so people before investing got to carefully review all the available available investment docs understand what you're getting into before you invest now with that out of the way ivana i have some stats up here on this slide your spear you're a newly launched female lead firm that does deep research into the supply chain we're going to talk about that you try to uncover as i understand it under-appreciated industrial tech firms and some really pretty cool areas that we list here but tell us a little bit more about your background and your etf so thanks for having me david my background is in industrial research and industrial technology investments i've spent the past 15 years covering this space and what we've seen over the past five years is technology changes that are really driving fundamental shifts in industrial manufacturing processes so whether this is 5g connectivity innovation in the software stack increasing compute speeds all of these are major technological advancements that are impacting uh traditional manufacturers so what we try to do is assess speak to these firms and assess who is at the leading and who is at the lagging end of this digital transformation and we're trying to assess what vendors they're using what processes they're implementing and that is how we generate most of our investment ideas okay great and and we show on the bottom of of this sort of intro slide if you will uh so one of the processes that you use and one of the things that that is notable a lot of people compare you uh to kathy woods are investments when you came out uh i think you use a different process i mean maybe there are some similarities in terms of disruption but at the bottom of this slide it shows a mckinsey sort of graphic that that i think informs people as to how you really dig into the supply chain from a research standpoint is that right absolutely so for us it's all about understanding the supply chain going deep in the supply chain and gather data points from primary sources that we can then translate into investment opportunities so if you look at this mckinsey graph uh you will see that there is a lot of opportunity to for these companies to transform themselves both on the front end which means better revenue better products and on their operation side which means lower cost whether it's through better operations or through better processes on the the back end so what we do is we will speak to a traditional manufacturing company and ask them okay well what do you use for better product development and they will give us the name of the firms and give us an assessment of what's the differences between the competitors why they like one versus the other so then we're gonna take the data and we will put it into our financial model and we'll understand the broader market for it um the addressable market the market share that the company has and will project the growth so for these higher growth stocks that that you cover the main alpha generation uh potential here is to understand what the amount of growth these companies will generate over the next 10 to 20 years so it's really all about projecting growth in the next three years in the next five years and where will growth ultimately settle in in the next 10 to 20 years love it we're gonna have a fun conversation because today we're going to get into your thesis for cooper snowflake and z scalar we're going to bring in some of our own data some of our data from etr and and why you think these companies may be candidates for long-term growth and and be buy the dip stock so to do that i hacked up this little comparison slide we're showing here i do this for context our audience knows i'm not a cfa or a valuation expert but we like to do simple comparisons just to give people context and a sense of relative size growth and valuation and so this chart attempts to do that so what i did is i took the most recent quarterly revenue for cooper snowflake and z scalar multiplied it by four to get a run rate we included servicenow in the table just for baseline reference because bill mcdermott as we've reported aspires to make service now the next great enterprise software company alongside with salesforce and oracle and some of the others and and all these companies that we list here that through the three here they aspire to do so in their own domain so we're displaying the market cap from friday morning september 10th we calculated a revenue run rate multiple and we show the quarterly revenue growth and what this data does is gives you a sense of the three companies they're well on their way to a billion dollars in revenue it underscores the relationship between revenue growth and valuation snowflake being the poster child for that dynamic savannah i know you do much more detailed financial analysis but let's talk about these companies in order maybe start with koopa they just crushed their quarter i mean they blew away consensus on the top line what else about the company do you like and why is it on your by the dip list so just to back up david on valuation these companies investors either directly or indirectly value on a dcf basis and what happened at the beginning of the year as interest rates started increasing people started freaking out and once you plug in 100 basis points higher interest rate in your dcf model you get significant price downside so that really drove a lot of the pullback at the beginning of the year right now where we stand today interest rates haven't really moved all that significantly off the bot of the bottom they're still around the same levels maybe a little bit higher but those are not the types of moves that are going to drive significant downside in this stock so as things have stabilized here a lot of these opportunities look pretty attractive on that basis so koopa specifically came out of our um if you go back to that uh the chart of like where the opportunities lie in um in across the manufacturing uh um enterprise koopa is really focused on business pen management so they're really trying to help companies reduce their cost uh and they're a leader in the space uh they're unique uh unique in that they're cloud-based so the feedback we've been hearing from from our companies that use it jetblue uses it train technologies uses it the feedback we've been hearing is that they love the ease of implementation so it's very easy to implement and it drives real savings um savings for these companies so we see in our dcf model we see multiple years of this 30 40 percent growth and that's really driving our price target yeah and we can i can confirm that i mean i mean just anecdotally you know you know we serve a lot of the technology community and many of our clients are saying hey okay you know when you go to do invoicing or whatever you work with procurement it's koopa you know this is some ariba that's kind of the legacy which is sap we'll talk about that a little later but let's talk about snowflake um you know snowflake we've been tracking them very closely we know the management there we've watched them through their last two companies now here and have been following that company early on since since really 2015. tell us why you like snowflake um and and maybe why you think it can continue its rapid growth thanks david so first of all i need to compliment you on your research on the company on the technology side so where we come in is more from understanding where our companies can use soft snowflake and where snowflake can add value so what we've been hearing from our companies is the challenge that they're facing is that everybody's moving to the cloud but it's not as simple as just send your data to the cloud and call aws and they're gonna generate more revenue for your solve your cost problem so what we've been hearing is that companies need to find tools that are easy to use where they can use their own domain expertise and just plug and play so um ansys is one of the companies we covered the dust simulation they've found snowflake to be an extremely useful tool in sales lead generation and within sales crm systems have been around for a while and they're they've really been implemented but analyzing sales numbers is something that is new to this company some some of our companies don't even know what their sales are even when they look back after the quarter is closed so tools like this help um companies do easy analytics and therefore drive revenue and cost savings growth so we see really big runway for for this company and i think the most misunderstood part about it is that people view it as a warehousing data warehousing play while this is all about compute and the company does a good job separating the two and what our their customers like or like the companies that we cover like about it is that it can lower their compute costs um and make it much easier much more easily manageable for them great and we're going to talk about more about each of these companies but let's talk about z-scaler a bit i mean z-scaler is a company we've been very excited about and identified them kind of early on they've definitely benefited from the move to cloud generally and specifically the remote work uh situation with the cyber threats etc but tell us why you like z-scaler so interestingly z-scaler um we like the broader security space um the broader cyber security space and interestingly our companies are not yet spending to the level that is commensurate with the increase in attack rate so we think this is a trend that is really going to accelerate as we go forward um my own board 20 of the time on the last board meeting was spent on cyber security what we're doing and this is a pretty simple operation that that we're running here so you can imagine for a large enterprise with thousands of people all around the world um needing to be on a single simple system z-scaler really fits well here very easy to implement several of our industrial companies use it siemens uses it ge uses it and they've had great great experience with it excellent i just want to take a quick look at how some of these names have performed over the last year and and what if anything this data tells us this is a chart comparing the past 12 months performance of of those four companies uh that we just talked about and we added in you know servicenow z scalar as you can see has outperformed the other despite your commentary on discounted cash flow snowflake is underperformed really precisely for the reasons that you mentioned not to mention the fact that it was pretty highly valued and you can see relative to the nas but it's creeping back lately after very strong earnings even though the stock dropped after it beat earnings because the street wants the cfo to say to guide even higher than maybe as mike scarpelli feels is prudent and you can see cooper has also underperformed relatively speaking i mean it absolutely destroyed consensus this week the stock went up but it's been off with the the weaker market this week i know you like to take a longer term view but but anything you would add here yeah so interestingly both z-scaler and koopa were in the camp of as we went into earnings expectations were already pretty high because few of their competitors reported very strong results so this scalar yesterday their revenue growth was was pretty strong the stock is down today uh and the reason is because people were kind of caught up a little bit in the noise of this quarter growth is 57 last quarter it was 60 like is this a deceleration we don't see it as that at all and the company brought up one point that i thought was extremely interesting which is as their deal sizes are getting larger it takes a little longer time for them to see the revenue come through so it takes a little bit of time to for you to see it into from billings into into revenue same thing with cooper very strong earnings report but i think expectations were already pretty high going into it uh given the service now and um and anna plan as well reported strong results so i think it's all about positioning so we love these setups where you can buy the deep in on this opportunity where like people get caught up in um short-term noise and and it creates good entry points excellent i i want to bring in some data from our partner etr and see if you have any comments ivana so what we're showing here is a two-dimensional chart we like to show this uh very frequently it's based on a survey of between a thousand and fifteen hundred chief information officers and technology buyers every quarter this is from their most recent july survey the vertical axis shows net score which is a measure of spending momentum i mean this it measures the net percentage of customers in the survey that are spending more on a particular product or platform in other words it essentially subtracts the percentage of customers spending less from those spending more which yields a net score it's more granular than that but basically that's what it does the horizontal axis is market share or pervasiveness in the data set it's not revenue market share like you get from idc it's it's a mention market share and now that red dotted line at the 40 percent mark on the vertical represents an elevated level in other words anything above 40 percent we consider notable and we've plotted our three by the dip companies and included some of their competitors for context and you can see we added salesforce servicenow and oracle and that orange ellipse because they're some of the bigger names in the software business so let's take these in alphabetical order ivana starting with koopa in the blue you can see we plotted them next to sap's ariba and you can see cooper has stronger spending momentum but not as much presence in the market so to me my influence is oh that's an opportunity for them to steal share more modern technology you know more facile and of course oracle has products in this space but the oracle dot includes all oracle products not just the procurement stuff but uh maybe your thoughts on this absolutely i love this chart i think that's your spot on this would be the same way i would interpret the chart where um increased spending momentum is is a sign of the company providing products that people like and we we expect to see cooper's share grow market share grow over time as well so let's come back to the chart and i want to i want to really point out the green ellipse this is the data zone if you will uh and we're like a broken record on this program with snowflake has performed unbelievably well in net score and spending momentum every quarter the dtr has captured enough end sample in its survey holding near or above 80 percent its net score consistently is has been up there and we've plotted data bricks in that zone it's been expected right that data bricks is going to do an ipo this year late last month company raised 1.6 billion in a private round so i guess that was either a strategy to delay the ipo or raise a bunch more cash and give late investors a low risk bite at the apple you know pre-ipo as we saw with snowflake last year what we didn't plot here are some of snowflake's biggest competitors ivana who also happen to be their partners most notably the big cloud players all who have their own database offerings aws microsoft and google now you've said snowflake is much more than a database company i wonder if you could add some color here yeah that's a very good point david uh basically the the driver of the thesis in snowflake is all about acceleration and spending and what we are seeing is the customers that are signed up on their platform today they're not even spending they're probably spending less than five percent of what they can ultimately spend on this product and the reason is because they don't yet know what the ultimate applications are for this right so you're gonna start with putting the data in a format you can use and you need to come up with use cases or how are you actually going to use this data so back to the example that i gave with answers the first use case that they found was trying to optimize leads there could be like 100 other use cases and they're coming up with with those on a daily basis so i would expect um this score to keep keep uh keep up pretty high or or go even higher as we as people figure out how they can use this product you know the buy-the-dip thesis on snowflake was great last quarter because the stock pulled back after they announced earnings and when we reported we said you know mike the the company see well cleveland research came out remember they got the dip on that and we looked at the data and we said mike scarpelli said that you know we're going to probably as a percentage of overall customers decelerate the net net new logos but we're going deeper into the customer base and that's exactly what's happening with with snowflake but okay let's bring up the slide again last but not least the z scaler we love z scalar we named z scaler in 2019 as an emerging four-star security company along with crowdstrike and octa and we said these three should be on your radar and as you see we've plotted z scalar with octa who with its it's its recent move into to converging identity and governance uh it gets kind of interesting uh we plotted them with palo alto as well another cyber security player that we've covered extensively we love octa in addition to z-scaler we great respect for palo alto and you'll note all of them are over that 40 percent line these are disruptors they're benefiting well not so much palo alto they're more legacy but the the other two are benefiting from that shift to work from home cloud security modern tech stack uh the acquisition that octa-made of of of auth0 and again z scalar cloud security getting rid of a lot of hardware uh really has a huge tailwind at its back if on a zscaler you know they've benefited from the huge my cloud migration trend what are your thoughts on the company so i actually love all three companies that are there right and the point is people are just going to spend more money whether you are on the cloud of the cloud the data centers need more security as well so i think there is a strong case to be made for all three with this scaler the upside is that it's just very easy to use very easy to implement and if you're somebody that is just setting up infrastructure on the cloud there is no reason for you to call any other competitor right with palo alto the case there is that if you have an established um security platfor if you're on their security platform the databa on the data center side uh they they did introduce through several acquisitions a pretty attractive cloud offering as well so they've been gaining share as well in the space and and the company does look pretty attractive on valiation basis so for us cyber security is really all about rising tide lifts all boats here right so you can have a pure play like this scaler uh that benefits from the cloud but even somebody like palo alto is pretty well positioned um to benefit yeah we think so too over a year ago we reported on the valuation divergence between palo alto and fortinet fortinet was doing a better job moving to the cloud and obviously serves more of a mid-market space palo alto had some go-to-market execution challenges we said at the time they're going to get through those and when we talk to chief information security officers palo alto is like the gold standard they're the thought leader they want to work with them but at the same time they also want to participate in some of these you know modern cloud stacks so i we agree there's plenty of room for all three um just to add a bit more color and drill into the spending data a little bit more this slide here takes that net score and shows the progression since january 2019 and you can see a snowflake just incredible in terms of its ability to maintain that elevated net score as we talked about and the table on the insert it shows you the number of responses and all three of these companies have been getting more mentions over time but snowflake and z scale are now both well over 100 n in the survey each quarter and the other notable piece here and this is really important you can see all three are coming out of the isolation economy with the spending uptick nice upticks shown in the most recent survey so that's again another positive but i want to close ivana with kind of making the bull and bear case and have you address really the risks to the buy the dip scenario so look there are a lot of reasons to like these companies we talked about them cooper they've got earnings momentum you know management on the call side had very strong end market demand this the stock you know has underperformed the nasdaq you know this year snowflake and zscaler they also have momentum snowflake get this enormous tam uh although they were punished for not putting a hard number on it which is ridiculous in my opinion i mean the thing is it's huge um the investors were just kind of you know wanting a little binky baby blanket but they all have modern tech in the cloud and really importantly this shows in the etr surveys you know the momentum that they have so very high retention is the other point i wanted to make the very very low churn of these companies however cooper's management despite the blowout quarter they gave kind of underwhelming guidance they've cited headwinds uh they've with the the the lamisoft uh migration to their cloud platform snowflake is kind of like price to perfection so maybe that's an advantage because every every little negative news is going to going to cause the company to dip but it's you know it's pretty high value because salutman and scarpelli everybody expects them to surpass what happened at servicenow which was a rocket ship and it could be all argued that all three are richly priced and overvalued so but ivana you're looking out as you said a couple of years three years maybe even five years how do you think about the potential downside risks in in your by the dip scenario you buy every dip you looking for bigger dips or what's your framework there so what we try to do is really look every quarter the company reports is there something that's driving fundamental change to the story or is it a one-off situation where people are just misunderstanding what the company is reporting so in the case we kind of addressed some of the earnings that that were reported but with koopa we think the man that management is guiding conservatively as they should so we're not very concerned about their ability to execute on on the guidance and and to exceed the guidance with snowflake price to perfection that's never a good idea to avoid a stock uh because it just shows that there is the company is doing a great job executing right so um we are looking for reports like the cleveland report where they would be like negative on the stock and that would be an entry point uh for us so broadly we apply by the deep philosophy but not not if something fundamentally changes in the story and none of these three are showing any signs of fundamental change okay we're going to leave it right there thanks to my guest today ivana tremendous having you would love to have you back great to see you thank you david and def you definitely want to check out sprx and the spear etf now remember i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com these episodes they're all available as podcasts all you do is search breaking analysis podcasts you can always connect with me on twitter i'm at d vallante or email me at david.vellante at siliconangle.com love the comments on linkedin don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante by our estimates aws will generate around nine billion dollars in storage revenue this year and is now the second largest supplier of enterprise storage behind dell we believe aws storage revenue will hit 11 billion in 2022 and continue to outpace on-prem storage growth by more than a thousand basis points for the next three to four years at its third annual storage day event aws signaled a continued drive to think differently about data storage and transform the way customers migrate manage and add value to their data over the next decade hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll give you a brief overview of what we learned at aws's storage day share our assessment of the big announcement of the day a deal with netapp to run ontap natively in the cloud as a managed service and we'll share some new data on how we see the market evolving with aws executive perspectives on its strategy how it thinks about hybrid and where it fits into the emerging data mesh conversation let's start with a snapshot of the announcements made at storage day now as with most aws events this one had a number of announcements and introduced them at a pace that was predictably fast and oftentimes hard to follow here's a quick list of most of them with some comments on each the big big news is the announcement with netapp netapp and aws have engineered a solution which ports the rich netapp stack onto aws and will be delivered as a fully managed service this is a big deal because previously customers either had they had to make a trade-off they had a settle for cloud-based file service with less functionality than you could get with netapp on-prem or it had to lose the agility and elasticity of the cloud and the whole pay-by-the-drink model now customers can get access to a fully functional netapp stack with services like data reduction snaps clones the full multi-protocol support replication all the services ontap delivers in the cloud as a managed service through the aws console our estimate is that 80 of the data on-prem is stored in file format and that's not the revenue but that's the data and we all know about s3 object storage but the biggest market from a capacity standpoint is file storage you know this announcement reminds us quite a bit of the vmware cloud on aws deal but applied to storage netapp's aunt anthony lai told me dave this is bigger and we're going to come back to that in a moment aws announced s3 multi-region access points it's a service that optimizes storage performance it takes into account latency network congestion and the location of data copies to deliver data via the best route to ensure our best performance this is something we've talked about for quite some time using metadata to optimize that that access aws also announced improvements to s3 tiering where it will no longer charge for small objects of less than 128k so for example customers won't be charged for most metadata and other smaller objects remember aws years ago hired a bunch of emc engineers and those guys built a lot of tiering functionality into their boxes and we'll come back to that later in this episode aws also announced backup and monitoring tools to ensure backups are in compliance with regulations and corporate edicts this frankly is table stakes and was was overdue in my view aws also made a number of other announcements that have been well covered in the press around block storage and simplified data migration tools so we'll leave that to your perusal through other outlets i want to come back to the big picture on the market dynamics now as we've reported in previous breaking analysis segments aws storage revenue is on a path to 10 billion dollars we reported this last year this chart puts the market in context it shows our estimates for worldwide enterprise storage revenue in the calendar year 2021. this data is meant to include all storage revenue including primary secondary and archival storage and related maintenance services dell is the leader in the 60 billion market with aws now hot on its tail with 15 of the market in terms of the way we've cut it now in the pre-cloud days customers would tell us our storage strategy is the following we buy emc for block and netapp for file keeping it simple while remnants of this past habit continue the market is definitely changing as you can see here the companies highlighted in red represent the growing hyperscaler presence and you can see in the pi on the right they now account for around 25 percent of the market and they're growing much much faster than the on-prem vendors well over that thousand basis points when you combine them all a couple of other things to note in the data we're excluding kindrel from ibm's figures that's ibm spinout but including our estimates of storage software for example spectrums protect that is sold as part of the ibm cloud but not reported in ibm's income statement by the way pre-kindred spin ibm storage business we believe would approach the size of netapp's business now in the yellow we've highlighted the portion of hyper-converged that comprises storage this includes vmware nutanix cisco and others vmware and nutanix are the largest hci players but in total the storage piece of that market is less than two billion okay so the way to look at this market is changing traditional on-prem is vying for budgets with cloud storage services which are rapidly gaining presence in the market and we're seeing the on-prem piece evolve of course into as a service models with hpe's green lake dell's apex and other on-prem cloud-like models now let's come back to the netapp aws deal netapp as we know is the gold standard for file services they've been the market leader for a long long time and other than pure which is considerably smaller netapp is the one company that consistently was able to beat emc in the market emc developed its its nas business and developed on its own nasdaq and it bought isilon to compete with netapp with isilon's excellent global file system but generally netapp remains the best file storage company today now emerging disruptors like cumulo vast weka they would take issue with this statement and rightly so as they have really promising technology but netapp remains the king of the file hill you can't debate that now netapp however has had some serious headwinds as the largest independent storage player as seen in this etr chart the data shows a nine-year view of netapp's presence in the etr survey presence is referred to by etr as market share it's not traditional market share it measures the pervasiveness of responses in the etr survey over a thousand customers each quarter so the percentage of mentions essentially that netapp is getting and you can see well netapp remains a leader it has had a difficult time expanding its tam and it's become frankly less relevant in the eye in the grand scheme and the grand eyes of it buyers the company hit headwinds when it began migrating its base to ontap 8 and was late riding a number of new waves including flash but generally it is recovered from those headwinds and it's really now focused on the cloud opportunity opportunity as evidenced by this deal with aws now as i said earlier netapp evp anthony lai told me that this deal is bigger than vmware cloud on aws like me you may be wondering how can that be vmware is the leader in the data center it has half a million customers its deal with aws has been a tremendous success as seen in this etr chart the data here shows spending momentum or net score from when vmware cloud on aws was picked up in the etr surveys with a meaningful n which today is approaching 100 responses in the survey the yellow line is there for context it's vmware's overall business so repeat it buyers who responded vmware versus specifically vmware cloud on aws so you see vmware overall has a huge presence in the survey more than 600 n the red line is vmware cloud on aws and that red dotted line you see that that's that's my magic 40 mark anything above that line we consider elevated net score or spending velocity and while we saw some deceleration earlier this year in that line that top line for vmware cloud vmware cloud and aws has been consistently showing well in the survey well above that 40 percent line so could this netapp deal be bigger than vmware cloud on aws well probably not in our view but we like the strategy of netapp going cloud native on aws and aws's commitment to deliver this as a managed service now where could get interesting is across clouds in other words if netapp can take a page out of snowflake and build an abstraction layer that hides the underlying complexity of not only the aws cloud but also gcp and azure where you log into the netapp cloud netapp data cloud if you will just go ahead and steal steal it from snowflake and then netapp optimizes your on-prem your aws your azure and or your gcp file storage we see that as a winning strategy that could dramatically expand netapp's tam politically it may not sit well with aws but so what netapp has to go multi-cloud to expand that tam when the vmware deal was announced many people felt it was a one-way street where all the benefit would eventually accrue to aws in reality this has certainly been a near-term winner for aws and vmware and of course importantly vmware and aws join customers now longer term it's going to clearly be a win for aws because it gets access to vmware's customer base but we also think it will serve vmware well because it gives the company a clear and concise cloud strategy especially if it can go across clouds and eventually get to the edge so with this netapp aws deal will it be as big probably not in our view but it is big netapp in our view just leapfrogged the competition because of the deep engineering commitment aws has made this isn't a marketplace deal it's a native managed service and we think that's pretty huge okay we're going to close with a few thoughts on aws storage strategy and some other thoughts on hybrid talk about capturing mission critical workloads and where aws fits in the overall data mesh conversation which is one of our favorite topics first let's talk about aws's storage strategy overall as with other services aws approach is to give builders access to tools at a very granular level that means it does mean a lot of apis and access to primitives that are essentially building blocks while this may require greater developer skills it also allows aws to get to market quickly and add functionality faster than the competition enterprises however where they will pay up for solutions so this leaves some nice white space for partners and also competitors and especially the on-prem folks but let's hear from an aws executive i spoke to milan thompson bucheveck an aws vp on the cube and asked her to describe aws's storage strategy here's what she said play the clip we are dynamically and constantly evolving our aws storage services based on what the application and the customer want that is fundamentally what we do every day we talked a little bit about those deployments that are happening right now dave that is something that idea of constant dynamic evolution just can't be replicated by on-premises where you buy a box and it sits in your data center for three or more years and what's unique about us among the cloud services is again that perspective of the 15 years where we are building applications in ways that are unique because we have more customers and we have more customers doing more things so you know i i've said this before uh it's all about speed of innovation dave time and change wait for no one and if you're a business and you're trying to transform your business and base it on a set of technologies that change rapidly you have to use aws services i mean if you look at some of the launches that we talk about today and you think about s3's multi-region access points that's a fundamental change for customers that want to store copies of their data in any number of different regions and get a 60 performance improvement by leveraging the technology that we've built up over over time the the ability for us to route to intelligently router requests across our network that and fsx for netapp ontap nobody else has these capabilities today and it's because we are at the forefront of talking to different customers and that dynamic evolution of storage that's the core of our strategy so as you hear and can see by milan's statements how these guys think outside the box mentality at the end of the day customers want rock solid storage that's dirt cheap and lightning fast they always have and they always will but what i'm hearing from aws is they think about delivering these capabilities in the broader context of an application or a business think deeper business integration not the traditional suppliers don't think about that as well but the services mentality the cloud services mentality is different than dropping off a box at a loading dock turning it over to a professional services organization and then moving on to the next deal now i also had a chance to speak with wayne dusso he's another aws vp in the storage group wayne do so is a long time tech athlete for years he was responsible for building storage arrays at emc aws as i said hired a bunch of emcs years ago and those guys did a lot of tiered storage so i asked wayne what's the difference in mentality when you're building boxes versus cloud services here's what he said you have physical constraints you have to worry about the physical resources on that device for the life of that device which is years think about what changes in three or five years think about the last two years alone and what's changed can you imagine having being constrained by only uh having boxes available to you during this last two years versus having the cloud and being able to expand or contract based on your business needs that would be really tough right and it has been tough and that's why we've seen customers from every industry accelerate uh their use of the cloud during these last two years so i get that so what's your mindset when you're building storage services and data services so so each of the surfaces that we have in object block file movement services data services each of them provides very specific customer value in each are deeply integrated with the rest of aws so that when you need object services you start using them the integrations come along with you when if you're using traditional block we talked about ebs io2 block express when using file just the example alone today with ontap you know you get to use what you need when you need it and the way that you're used to using it without any concern so so the big difference is no constraints in the box but lots of opportunities to blend in with other services now all that said there are cases where the box is gonna win because of locality and and physics and latency issues you know particularly where latency is king that's where a box is gonna be advantageous and we'll come back to that in a bit okay but what about hybrid how does aws think about hybrid and on-prem here's my take and then let's hear from milan again the cloud is expanding it's moving out to the edge and aws looks at the data center as just another edge node and it's bringing its infrastructure as code mentality to that edge and of course to data centers so if aws is truly customer centric which we believe it is it will naturally have to accommodate on-prem use cases and it is doing just that here's how milan thompson-bucheveck explained how aws is thinking about hybrid roll the clip for us dave it always comes back to what the customer is asking for and we were talking to customers and they were talking about their edge and what they wanted to do with it we said how are we going to help and so if i just take s3 for outposts as an example or ebs and outposts you know we have customers like morningstar and morningstar wants outposts because they are using it as a step in their journey to being on the cloud if you take a customer like first adudabi bank they're using outposts because they need data residency for their compliance requirements and then we have other customers that are using outposts to help like dish networks as an example to place the storage as close as account to the applications for low latency all of those are customer driven requirements for their architecture for us dave we think in the fullness of time every customer and all applications are going to be on the cloud because it makes sense and those businesses need that speed of innovation but when we build things like our announcement today of fxs for netapp ontap we build them because customers asked us to help them with their journey to the cloud just like we built s3 and evs for outposts for the same reason so look this is a case where the box or the appliance wins latency matters as we said and aws gets that this is where matt baker of dell is right it's not a zero-sum game this is especially accurate as it pertains to the cloud versus on-prem discussion but a budget dollar is a budget dollar and the dollar can't go to two places so the battle will come down to who has the best solution the best relationships and who can deliver the most rock solid storage at the lowest cost and highest performance let's take a look at mission critical workloads for a second we're seeing aws go after these it's doing a database it's doing it with block storage we're talking about oracle sap microsoft sql server db2 that kind of stuff high volume oltp transactions mission critical work now there's no doubt that aws is picking up a lot of low hanging fruit with business critical workloads but the really hard to move work isn't going without a fight frankly it's not going that fast aws and mace has made some improvements to block storage to remove some of the challenges related but generally we see this is a very long road ahead for aws and other cloud suppliers oracle is the king of mission critical work along with ibm mainframes and those infrastructures generally it's not easy to move to the cloud it's too risky it's too expensive and the business case oftentimes isn't there because very frequently you have to freeze applications to do so what generally what people are doing is they're building an abstraction layer over that putting that abstraction layer maybe in the cloud building new apps that can connect to the back end and the into the cloud but that back end is largely cemented and fossilized look it's all in the definition no doubt there's plenty of mission critical work that is going to move but just really depends on how you define it even aws struggles to move its most critical transaction systems off of oracle but we'll continue to keep an open mind there it's just that today we define the most mission-critical workloads as we define them we don't see a lot of movement to the hyperscale clouds and we're going to close with some thoughts on data mesh so one of our favorite topics we've written extensively about this and interviewed and are collaborating with jamaa dagani who has coined the term and we've announced a media collaboration with the data mesh community and believe it's a strong direction for the industry so we wanted to understand how aws thinks about data mesh and where it fits in the conversation here's what milan had to say about that play the clip we have customers today that are taking the data mesh architectures and implementing them with aws services and dave i want to go back to the start of amazon when amazon first began we grew because the amazon technologies were built in microservices fundamentally a data match is about separation or abstraction of what individual components do and so if i look at data mesh really you're talking about two things you're talking about separating the data storage and the characteristics of data from the data services that interact and operate on that storage and with data mesh it's all about making sure that the businesses the decentralized business model can work with that data now our aws customers are putting their storage in a centralized place because it's easier to track it's easier to view compliance and it's easier to predict growth and control costs but we started with building blocks and we deliberately built our storage services separate from our data services so we have data services like lake formation and glue we have a number of these data services that our customers are using to build that customized data mesh on top of that centralized storage so really it's about at the end of the day speed it's about innovation it's about making sure that you can decentralize and separate your data services from your storage so businesses can go faster so it's very true that aws has customers that are implementing data mess data mesh data mess data mesh can be a data mess if you don't do it right jpmorgan chase is a firm that is doing that we've we've covered that they've got a great video out there check out the breaking analysis archive you'll see that hellofresh has also initiated a data mesh architecture in the cloud and several others are starting to pop up i think the point is the issues and challenges around data mesh are more organizational and process related and less focused on the technology platform look data by its very nature is decentralized so when mylan talks about customers building on centralized storage that's a logical view of the storage but not necessarily physically centralized it may be in a in a hybrid device it may be a copy that lives outside of that same physical location this is an important point as jpmorgan chase pointed out the data mesh must accommodate data products and services that are in the cloud and also on-prem it's got to be inclusive the data mesh looks at the data store as a node on the data mesh it shouldn't be confined by the technology whether it's a data warehouse a data hub a data mart or an s3 bucket so i would say this while people think of the cloud as a centralized walled garden and in many respects it is that very same cloud is expanding into a massively distributed architecture and that fits with the data mesh architectural model as i say the big challenges of data mesh are less technical and more cultural and we're super excited to see how data mesh plays out over time and we're really excited to be part of part of the the community and a media partner of the data mesh community okay that's it for now remember i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and these episodes they're all available as podcasts all you do is search for breaking analysis podcasts you can always connect on twitter i'm at d vellante or email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com i appreciate the comments you guys make on linkedin and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> ServiceNow is a company that investors love to love, but there's caution in the investor community right now is confusion about transitory inflation and higher interest rates looms. ServiceNow also suffers from a perfection syndrome of sorts. The company has seen that the slightest misstep can cause many freak outs from the investor community. So what it's done is it's architected a financial and communications model that allows it to beat expectations and raise its outlook on a consistent basis. Regardless, ServiceNow appears to be on track to vie for what its CEO Bill McDermott refers to as the next great enterprise software company. Wait, I thought Marc Benioff had his hands on that steering wheel. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we'll dig into one of the companies we began following almost 10 years ago and provide some thoughts on ServiceNow's March to 15 billion by 2026, which we think is a highly probable achievement. In 2020, despite the contraction in IT spending, SeviceNow outperformed both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, but here's a view of 2021. And you can see while the stock has done well since it saw a softness in May and again in early June, and it bounced off that double bottom, it's performance is well below those other benchmarks. This is not a big surprise given the fact that this is a high growth stock and we all know that those names with high multiples get hurt in an inflationary environment, but still the gaps are notable. This is especially true given the performance of the company. It's not often that you see a company with four to $5 billion in revenue growing at a 30% clip, throwing off billions of dollars in free cash flow and increasing operating margins at 100 basis points a year and promising to do that over the next several years. In fact, I don't think we've ever seen that before. I remember years ago, when the trade press was criticizing SeviceNow for its lofty valuation, despite the fact that it was losing money, then CEO, Frank Slootman said to me, "Dave, we can be highly profitable tomorrow if we want it to be, but this is a marathon and we're planning to go big." So essentially Slootman was telling me that this company was going to be an ATM machine that prints money. And that seems to be how it's shaping up. I happened to be at SeviceNow headquarters in 2017, literally the first day on the job for John Donahoe, the CEO replaced Slootman, and I remember while I was there thinking Donahoe was certainly capable, but why the heck I said, would the board let Frank Slootman get away? You know what? It turned great for Slootman, he's at snowflake. Donahoe, I always felt was a consumer guy anyway, and not long for SeviceNow. And now you have this guy, new CEO, Bill McDermott at the helm. He's not a more qualified CEO for the company in my view. About two months ago, McDermott led a virtual investor day. We've had McDermott on theCUBE a couple of times back when he was CEO of SAP and this individual is very compelling. He's got JFK like looks and charisma, but more than that, he's passionate and convincing. And he obviously knows enterprise software. And with conviction, he laid the groundwork for how SeviceNow will get to $10 billion in revenue by 2024 on its way to 15 billion two years thereafter. And one of the big things McDermott's stressed was they're going to get there without any big M&A moves. And that's important because previously the door was left open for that possibility. And now the company is assuring investors that it can get there organically, even with slower growth. So this chart implies no big M&A, and you can see Slootman handed over the reigns at that year one tick on the horizontal axis. This was not a turnaround story. It was a rocket ship at the time. And look at the logos on this chart. This is a revenue view and SeviceNow is aiming to be the fastest to get to 10 billion in software industry history. SeviceNow is valuation just to sort of shift gears here for a minute blew by workdays years ago. Its sites are now set on SAP which is currently valued at 170 billion. And then there's Oracle and Salesforce. They're at around 250 billion and 225 billion in valuation respectively. And these lines back to revenue show the trajectory that these companies took to get to 10 billion. And you can see how SeviceNow plans to get there with those dotted lines. And this is why I call this a collision course with Salesforce, because I think Marc Benioff might say, "Hey, we are ready." Are the next great enterprise software company. We have no plans to give up that post, that mantle anytime soon. I want to share a clip from four years ago. something we've been saying for a long, long time. Roll the clip. >> As they say their goal now is to be four billion by 2020. It feels like, you know, when we first covered SeviceNow knowledge, we said, wow, this company reminds us a lot of the early days of Salesforce. They've got this platform you can develop on this platform, you know, call it paths or, you know, whatever you want to call it, but we at the time said, they're on a collision course with Salesforce. Now there's plenty of room for both of those companies in the marketplace. Salesforce obviously focused predominantly on Salesforce automation, SeviceNow really on workflow automation, but you can see those sort of two markets coming together. >> Now you may be thinking isn't Salesforce's revenue like 5X that of SeviceNow? And yes it is. But I would say a couple of things. One is that Salesforce has gotten to where it is with a lot of M&A, more than 60 acquisitions. At some high profile wants to like slack and Tableau as well as MuleSoft and Heroku back in the day and many others. So we'll see how far McDermott can get before he reverts to his inquisitive self that we saw at SAP. But the second thing I'll say is serviceNow positions itself as the platform of platforms. And the thing is it runs its own cloud. And when it does acquisitions, it replatforms the acquiree into the now platform so that it can drive integrations more seamlessly. That's fundamentally part of its value proposition, a big part of its value proposition. And that means it's somewhat limited on the acquisitions it can make, it has to be pretty selective. Otherwise it's got to do a heavy lift to get it the now platform. It's the power of the models, especially if customers can get to a single CMDB, that configuration database management system, which by the way, a lot of customers never get to that kind of skirt that, but remember SeviceNow is like the ERP for IT. So the more you can get to a single data model, the more effective you're going to be, especially in this data era where you got to put data at the core of your organization, something we've talked about a lot. And the third thing I'll mention the SeviceNow wants to use this platform to attack what it sees as a very large TAM as shown here. Now, a couple of things I want to point out. One is when SeviceNow IPO in 2012, a lot of the analysts said that they were way overvalued because they were in a market. It was help desk and writing tickets was a $2 billion business that was in decline and BMC remedy. Wasn't really that big of a base to attack. In 2013, the Wikibon team took a stab at sizing the TAM. I dug back into the old Wiki. We had well over 30 billion at the time and we expected the company to move deeper into IT and then beyond IT into lines of business and line of business management. Yeah, we felt we were being conservative. We thought the number could be as big as 100 billion, but we felt like putting that number out there, was too aggressive but, you know, it turns out from SeviceNow standpoint, it sees these new software opportunities coming together. And SeviceNow in a way they can double dip both in and beyond their current markets. What I mean by that is it can partner with, for instance, HCM vendors and then at the same time offer employee workflows. They can partner or even purchase RPA tools from specialists like UI path or automation anywhere. And it can go acquire a company which it did like Intel a bot and integrate what I would consider lighter-weight RPA into its platform. So it can manage workflows for best of breed and pick off functionality throughout the software stack. Now what's interesting in this chart is first, the size of the TAM that SeviceNow sees 175 billion, but also how it's now reorganizing its business around workflows, which you see in the left-hand side. This was done of course, to simplify the many, many, many things that you can buy from SeviceNow. But there's also speculation that SeviceNow is leveraging its orchestration and service catalog capabilities, which are meaningful from a revenue standpoint and using them to power these workflows because the way it was organized was both confusing and not as effective as it could be. Now, it's well known that SeviceNow has ITSM this comprises the biggest piece of its revenue pie, probably a couple billion. And it's adding to that with ITSM pro and ITSM enterprise going deeper, deeper into the ITSM space. And it's ITAM business is also doing well against the likes of Datadog and Elastic and Splunk and others and its acquisition of LightStep. It's going to push it further into this space, which is both crowded is morphing into observability as we've been reporting. What's unclear though is how well, for instance, HR and the CSM businesses are doing as sort of standalone businesses, you might remember they used to be standalone businesses with standalone GMs. They've sort of changed that up a little bit. So this is potentially not only a way to simplify, but also shuffle the deck chairs a bit and maybe prop up the non IT workflows, which then allows SeviceNow to show this chart, which essentially says to the street, see, we have this huge TAM and our TAM expansion strategy is working as the overall business is growing nicely yet the mix is shifting toward customer, employee and creator workflows. See how awesome our business is and see how smart we are. So this is possibly a way to hide some of the warts and accentuate the growth. Look, there's not a lot to criticize SeviceNow about, but they've been pretty good at featuring what some perceive as weaknesses. Like for instance, the way it marketed it's a multi-instance and turned that into an advantage as a better model. Even though the whole cloud world was going multitenant and within a ServiceNow you got to really plan new releases, which they drop every six months, although CJ decide. So he's SeviceNows head of products. He did say at the investor meeting, that event that they held last May, that they do certain releases now bi-monthly and even some bi-weekly. So, yeah, maybe a little bit of nitpicking here, but I always liked to question when such changes are made to the reporting structures to the street. And if workflows are the new black, so to speak, I wonder will SeviceNow start pricing by workflows versus what really has been a legacy of, you know, what's your ticket volume and how many agents need access to the model and we'll charge you accordingly? Now, I'm not a service pricing expert and they don't make it easy to figure out that pricing. So let's dig a little bit more on that and keep an eye on it. Now I want to turn to the customers survey data from ETR on ServiceNow. First, here's the latest update on IT spending from ETR, something that we've been tracking for quite some time. We've been consistently saying to expect this year a seven to 8% growth for 2021 IT spend off of last year's contraction. And the latest ETR survey data puts it right at 8%. So we really liked that number. You know, could even be higher push 10% this year. Now, let's look at the spending profile within the ETR dataset. Of the 1100 plus respondents to this quarter, there were 377 SeviceNow customers, and this chart shows the breakdown of net score or spending velocity among those respondents. Remember, net score is a measure of that spending momentum. What it does is it takes the lime green bar, which is adopting new, that says 11% of that 377 customers are adopting ServiceNow for the first time. It takes that lime green and it adds the forest green bar that's growth in spending of 6% or more this half relative to the first half. That's 43% of the customers that have been surveyed here. And then it subtracts out the reds, which is that pinkish is spending less, that's 3%, small number of spending less. And then the bright red is we're leaving the platform. That's a minuscule 1% of the respondents. And you can see the rest in that gray area is flat spending, which is ignored. And so what this does is it calculates out, you'd take the greens minus the reds. It calculates out to a net score 50% for SeviceNow, which is well above that magic 40% elevated mark that we'd like to see. It's rare for a company of this size, except for the hyperscalers. You see AWS and Microsoft and Google are up that high and oh, there's another great enterprise software company at the 45% net score level. Guess who that is, salesforce.com. But anyway, it's rare to see that large of a company have that much spending momentum in the ETR surveys. Now let's take a look at the time series data for ServiceNow. This chart shows the net score granularity over time. So you see the bars, that time series, the blue line is net score. And you can see that it was dragged down during last year's lockdown. As, even though SeviceNow did pretty well last year and it's now spiking back to pre-COVID levels, which is a very positive sign for the company. That red call-out that ETR makes it shows market share. That's an indicator of pervasiveness in the dataset. I'm not overlyconcern there that downturn. I don't think it's a meaningful indicator because ServiceNow revenue is skewed towards a big spender accounts and this is an account unit indicator, if you will not spending level metric. And okay, and here's another reason and why I'm not concerned about SeviceNow is a so-called market share number in the ETR dataset as ETR defines it. This is an X, Y Z view chart that we'd like to show here. We've got net score on the vertical axis and market share in the horizontal plane. This is focusing on enterprise software. So remember that 40% red line is the magic level, anything above that is really indicative of momentum. Oh look, there's Salesforce and ServiceNow on that little collision course that I talked about. Now, CEO McDermott, I would say as by the way, would his predecessors, look, we're a platform of platforms and we partner with other companies, we'll meet at the customer level and sure we'll integrate functions where we think it can add value to customers. But we also understand we have to work with the vendors that our customers are using. So it's all good, plenty of room for growth for all of us, which by the way is true. But I would say this, anyone who's ever been in the enterprise software industry knows that enterprise software execs and their salespeople believe that every dollar spent on software should go to them. And if it's a good market with momentum and growth, they believe they can either organically write software to deliver customer function and value, or they can acquire to fill gaps. So, well, what McDermott would say is true. The likes of Oracle, Microsoft, SAP, Salesforce, Infor, et cetera, they all want as big of a budget piece as possible in the enterprise software space. That's just the way it is. Now, we're going to close with some anecdotal comments from ETR insights, formerly called VENN, which is a round table discussion with CXOs. You can read the summaries when we post on Wikibon and SiliconANGLE but let me summarize. This first comment comes from an assistant VP in retail who says SeviceNow is a key part of their digital transformation. They moved off of BMC remedy two years ago for the global ticketing system. And this person is saying that while the platform is extremely powerful, you got to buy into specific modules to just get one feature that you want. You may not need a lot of the other features, so it starts to get expensive. The other thing this individual is saying is initially, it's a very services heavy project. And so I'll tell you, when you look at the SeviceNow ecosystem the big SIs, the big names, they have big appetites. They love to eat at the trough as I sometimes say, and they want big clients with big budgets. So if you're not one of those top 500 or 700 customers, the big name SIs, you know, they might not be for you. They're not going to pay attention to you. They're going after the big prizes. So what I would suggest is you call up someone like Jason Wojahn of third era, he's the CEO over there and he's got a lot of experience in this space or some more specialized SeviceNow consultancy like them because you're going to get better value for the money. And you're going to get short-term ROI faster with a long-term sustainable ROI as a measurable objective. And I think this last comment sums it up nice, let me to skip over the second one and go just jump to the third one. This basically says the platform is integrated. It's like a mesh. It's not a bunch of stovepipes and cul-de-sacs. Yes it's expensive, but people love it. And like the iPhone, it just works. And their feature pace is accelerating. So pretty strong testimonials, but I want to keep an eye on price transparency any possible backlash there and how the ecosystem evolves. It's something that we called out early on. It's an indicator and SeviceNow needs to continue to invest in that partner network is especially as it builds out its vertical industry practices and expands internationally. Okay, we'll leave it there for now. Remember I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes they're all available as podcasts. All you got to do is search for breaking analysis podcast. You can always connect with me on Twitter @DVellante or email me @david.vellantesiliconangle.com. Appreciate the comments on LinkedIn. And don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

(upbeat music) >> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto, in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is braking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Database is the heart of enterprise computing. The market is both exploding and it's evolving. The major force is transforming the space include Cloud and data, of course, but also new workloads, advanced memory and IO capabilities, new processor types, a massive push towards simplicity, new data sharing and governance models, and a spate of venture investment. Snowflake stands out as the gold standard for operational excellence and go to market execution. The company has attracted the attention of customers, investors, and competitors and everyone from entrenched players to upstarts once in the act. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we'll share our most current thinking on the database marketplace and dig into Snowflake's execution. Some of its challenges and we'll take a look at how others are making moves to solve customer problems and try to get a piece of the growing database pie. Let's look at some of the factors that are driving market momentum. First, customers want lower license costs. They want simplicity. They want to avoid database sprawl. They want to run anywhere and manage new data types. These needs often are divergent and they pull vendors and technologies in different direction. It's really hard for any one platform to accommodate every customer need. The market is large and it's growing. Gardner has it at around 60 to 65 billion with a CAGR of somewhere around 20% over the next five years. But the market, as we know it is being redefined. Traditionally, databases have served two broad use cases, OLTP or transactions and reporting like data warehouses. But a diversity of workloads and new architectures and innovations have given rise to a number of new types of databases to accommodate all these diverse customer needs. Many billions have been spent over the last several years in venture money and it continues to pour in. Let me just give you some examples. Snowflake prior to its IPO, raised around 1.4 billion. Redis Labs has raised more than 1/2 billion dollars so far, Cockroach Labs, more than 350 million, Couchbase, 250 million, SingleStore formerly MemSQL, 238 million, Yellowbrick Data, 173 million. And if you stretch the definition of database a little bit to including low-code or no-code, Airtable has raised more than 600 million. And that's by no means a complete list. Now, why is all this investment happening? Well, in a large part, it's due to the TAM. The TAM is huge and it's growing and it's being redefined. Just how big is this market? Let's take a look at a chart that we've shown previously. We use this chart to Snowflakes TAM, and it focuses mainly on the analytics piece, but we'll use it here to really underscore the market potential. So the actual database TAM is larger than this, we think. Cloud and Cloud-native technologies have changed the way we think about databases. Virtually 100% of the database players that they're are in the market have pivoted to a Cloud first strategy. And many like Snowflake, they're pretty dogmatic and have a Cloud only strategy. Databases has historically been very difficult to manage, they're really sensitive to latency. So that means they require a lot of tuning. Cloud allows you to throw virtually infinite resources on demand and attack performance problems and scale very quickly, minimizing the complexity and tuning nuances. This idea, this layer of data as a service we think of it as a staple of digital transformation. Is this layer that's forming to support things like data sharing across ecosystems and the ability to build data products or data services. It's a fundamental value proposition of Snowflake and one of the most important aspects of its offering. Snowflake tracks a metric called edges, which are external connections in its data Cloud. And it claims that 15% of its total shared connections are edges and that's growing at 33% quarter on quarter. This notion of data sharing is changing the way people think about data. We use terms like data as an asset. This is the language of the 2010s. We don't share our assets with others, do we? No, we protect them, we secure or them, we even hide them. But we absolutely don't want to share those assets but we do want to share our data. I had a conversation recently with Forrester analyst, Michelle Goetz. And we both agreed we're going to scrub data as an asset from our phrasiology. Increasingly, people are looking at sharing as a way to create, as I said, data products or data services, which can be monetized. This is an underpinning of Zhamak Dehghani's concept of a data mesh, make data discoverable, shareable and securely governed so that we can build data products and data services that can be monetized. This is where the TAM just explodes and the market is redefining. And we think is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Let's talk a little bit about the diversity of offerings in the marketplace. Again, databases used to be either transactional or analytic. The bottom lines and top lines. And this chart here describe those two but the types of databases, you can see the middle of mushrooms, just looking at this list, blockchain is of course a specialized type of database and it's also finding its way into other database platforms. Oracle is notable here. Document databases that support JSON and graph data stores that assist in visualizing data, inference from multiple different sources. That's is one of the ways in which adtech has taken off and been so effective. Key Value stores, log databases that are purpose-built, machine learning to enhance insights, spatial databases to help build the next generation of products, the next automobile, streaming databases to manage real time data flows and time series databases. We might've missed a few, let us know if you think we have, but this is a kind of pretty comprehensive list that is somewhat mind boggling when you think about it. And these unique requirements, they've spawned tons of innovation and companies. Here's a small subset on this logo slide. And this is by no means an exhaustive list, but you have these companies here which have been around forever like Oracle and IBM and Teradata and Microsoft, these are the kind of the tier one relational databases that have matured over the years. And they've got properties like atomicity, consistency, isolation, durability, what's known as ACID properties, ACID compliance. Some others that you may or may not be familiar with, Yellowbrick Data, we talked about them earlier. It's going after the best price, performance and analytics and optimizing to take advantage of both hybrid installations and the latest hardware innovations. SingleStore, as I said, formerly known as MemSQL is a very high end analytics and transaction database, supports mixed workloads, extremely high speeds. We're talking about trillions of rows per second that could be ingested in query. Couchbase with hybrid transactions and analytics, Redis Labs, open source, no SQL doing very well, as is Cockroach with distributed SQL, MariaDB with its managed MySQL, Mongo and document database has a lot of momentum, EDB, which supports open source Postgres. And if you stretch the definition a bit, Splunk, for log database, why not? ChaosSearch, really interesting startup that leaves data in S-3 and is going after simplifying the ELK stack, New Relic, they have a purpose-built database for application performance management and we probably could have even put Workday in the mix as it developed a specialized database for its apps. Of course, we can't forget about SAP with how not trying to pry customers off of Oracle. And then the big three Cloud players, AWS, Microsoft and Google with extremely large portfolios of database offerings. The spectrum of products in this space is very wide, with you've got AWS, which I think we're up to like 16 database offerings, all the way to Oracle, which has like one database to do everything not withstanding MySQL because it owns MySQL got that through the Sun Acquisition. And it recently, it made some innovations there around the heat wave announcement. But essentially Oracle is investing to make its database, Oracle database run any workload. While AWS takes the approach of the right tool for the right job and really focuses on the primitives for each database. A lot of ways to skin a cat in this enormous and strategic market. So let's take a look at the spending data for the names that make it into the ETR survey. Not everybody we just mentioned will be represented because they may not have quite the market presence of the ends in the survey, but ETR that capture a pretty nice mix of players. So this chart here, it's one of the favorite views that we like to share quite often. It shows the database players across the 1500 respondents in the ETR survey this past quarter and it measures their net score. That's spending momentum and is shown on the vertical axis and market share, which is the pervasiveness in the data set is on the horizontal axis. The Snowflake is notable because it's been hovering around 80% net score since the survey started picking them up. Anything above 40%, that red line there, is considered by us to be elevated. Microsoft and AWS, they also stand out because they have both market presence and they have spending velocity with their platforms. Oracle is very large but it doesn't have the spending momentum in the survey because nearly 30% of Oracle installations are spending less, whereas only 22% are spending more. Now as a caution, this survey doesn't measure dollar spent and Oracle will be skewed toward the big customers with big budgets. So you got to consider that caveat when evaluating this data. IBM is in a similar position although its market share is not keeping up with Oracle's. Google, they've got great tech especially with BigQuery and it has elevated momentum. So not a bad spot to be in although I'm sure it would like to be closer to AWS and Microsoft on the horizontal axis, so it's got some work to do there. And some of the others we mentioned earlier, like MemSQL, Couchbase. As shown MemSQL here, they're now SingleStore. Couchbase, Reddis, Mongo, MariaDB, all very solid scores on the vertical axis. Cloudera just announced that it was selling to private equity and that will hopefully give it some time to invest in this platform and get off the quarterly shot clock. MapR was acquired by HPE and it's part of HPE's Ezmeral platform, their data platform which doesn't yet have the market presence in the survey. Now, something that is interesting in looking at in Snowflakes earnings last quarter, is this laser focused on large customers. This is a hallmark of Frank Slootman and Mike Scarpelli who I know they don't have a playbook but they certainly know how to go whale hunting. So this chart isolates the data that we just showed you to the global 1000. Note that both AWS and Snowflake go up higher on the X-axis meaning large customers are spending at a faster rate for these two companies. The previous chart had an end of 161 for Snowflake, and a 77% net score. This chart shows the global 1000, in the end there for Snowflake is 48 accounts and the net score jumps to 85%. We're not going to show it here but when you isolate the ETR data, nice you can just cut it, when you isolate it on the fortune 1000, the end for Snowflake goes to 59 accounts in the data set and Snowflake jumps another 100 basis points in net score. When you cut the data by the fortune 500, the Snowflake N goes to 40 accounts and the net score jumps another 200 basis points to 88%. And when you isolate on the fortune 100 accounts is only 18 there but it's still 18, their net score jumps to 89%, almost 90%. So it's very strong confirmation that there's a proportional relationship between larger accounts and spending momentum in the ETR data set. So Snowflakes large account strategy appears to be working. And because we think Snowflake is sticky, this probably is a good sign for the future. Now we've been talking about net score, it's a key measure in the ETR data set, so we'd like to just quickly remind you what that is and use Snowflake as an example. This wheel chart shows the components of net score, that lime green is new adoptions. 29% of the customers in the ETR dataset that are new to Snowflake. That's pretty impressive. 50% of the customers are spending more, that's the forest green, 20% are flat, that's the gray, and only 1%, the pink, are spending less. And 0% zero or replacing Snowflake, no defections. What you do here to get net scores, you subtract the red from the green and you get a net score of 78%. Which is pretty sick and has been sick as in good sick and has been steady for many, many quarters. So that's how the net score methodology works. And remember, it typically takes Snowflake customers many months like six to nine months to start consuming it's services at the contracted rate. So those 29% new adoptions, they're not going to kick into high gear until next year, so that bodes well for future revenue. Now, it's worth taking a quick snapshot at Snowflakes most recent quarter, there's plenty of stuff out there that you can you can google and get a summary but let's just do a quick rundown. The company's product revenue run rate is now at 856 million they'll surpass $1 billion on a run rate basis this year. The growth is off the charts very high net revenue retention. We've explained that before with Snowflakes consumption pricing model, they have to account for retention differently than what a SaaS company. Snowflake added 27 net new $1 million accounts in the quarter and claims to have more than a hundred now. It also is just getting its act together overseas. Slootman says he's personally going to spend more time in Europe, given his belief, that the market is huge and they can disrupt it and of course he's from the continent. He was born there and lived there and gross margins expanded, do in a large part to renegotiation of its Cloud costs. Welcome back to that in a moment. Snowflake it's also moving from a product led growth company to one that's more focused on core industries. Interestingly media and entertainment is one of the largest along with financial services and it's several others. To me, this is really interesting because Disney's example that Snowflake often puts in front of its customers as a reference. And it seems to me to be a perfect example of using data and analytics to both target customers and also build so-called data products through data sharing. Snowflake has to grow its ecosystem to live up to its lofty expectations and indications are that large SIS are leaning in big time. Deloitte cross the $100 million in deal flow in the quarter. And the balance sheet's looking good. Thank you very much with $5 billion in cash. The snarks are going to focus on the losses, but this is all about growth. This is a growth story. It's about customer acquisition, it's about adoption, it's about loyalty and it's about lifetime value. Now, as I said at the IPO, and I always say this to young people, don't buy a stock at the IPO. There's probably almost always going to be better buying opportunities ahead. I'm not always right about that, but I often am. Here's a chart of Snowflake's performance since IPO. And I have to say, it's held up pretty well. It's trading above its first day close and as predicted there were better opportunities than day one but if you have to make a call from here. I mean, don't take my stock advice, do your research. Snowflake they're priced to perfection. So any disappointment is going to be met with selling. You saw that the day after they beat their earnings last quarter because their guidance in revenue growth,. Wasn't in the triple digits, it sort of moderated down to the 80% range. And they pointed, they pointed to a new storage compression feature that will lower customer costs and consequently, it's going to lower their revenue. I swear, I think that that before earnings calls, Scarpelli sits back he's okay, what kind of creative way can I introduce the dampen enthusiasm for the guidance. Now I'm not saying lower storage costs will translate into lower revenue for a period of time. But look at dropping storage prices, customers are always going to buy more, that's the way the storage market works. And stuff like did allude to that in all fairness. Let me introduce something that people in Silicon Valley are talking about, and that is the Cloud paradox for SaaS companies. And what is that? I was a clubhouse room with Martin Casado of Andreessen when I first heard about this. He wrote an article with Sarah Wang, calling it to question the merits of SaaS companies sticking with Cloud at scale. Now the basic premise is that for startups in early stages of growth, the Cloud is a no brainer for SaaS companies, but at scale, the cost of Cloud, the Cloud bill approaches 50% of the cost of revenue, it becomes an albatross that stifles operating leverage. Their conclusion ended up saying that as much as perhaps as much as the back of the napkin, they admitted that, but perhaps as much as 1/2 a trillion dollars in market cap is being vacuumed away by the hyperscalers that could go to the SaaS providers as cost savings from repatriation. And that Cloud repatriation is an inevitable path for large SaaS companies at scale. I was particularly interested in this as I had recently put on a post on the Cloud repatriation myth. I think in this instance, there's some merit to their conclusions. But I don't think it necessarily bleeds into traditional enterprise settings. But for SaaS companies, maybe service now has it right running their own data centers or maybe a hybrid approach to hedge bets and save money down the road is prudent. What caught my attention in reading through some of the Snowflake docs, like the S-1 in its most recent 10-K were comments regarding long-term purchase commitments and non-cancelable contracts with Cloud companies. And the companies S-1, for example, there was disclosure of $247 million in purchase commitments over a five plus year period. And the company's latest 10-K report, that same line item jumped to 1.8 billion. Now Snowflake is clearly managing these costs as it alluded to when its earnings call. But one has to wonder, at some point, will Snowflake follow the example of say Dropbox which Andreessen used in his blog and start managing its own IT? Or will it stick with the Cloud and negotiate hard? Snowflake certainly has the leverage. It has to be one of Amazon's best partners and customers even though it competes aggressively with Redshift but on the earnings call, CFO Scarpelli said, that Snowflake was working on a new chip technology to dramatically increase performance. What the heck does that mean? Is this Snowflake is not becoming a hardware company? So I going to have to dig into that a little bit and find out what that it means. I'm guessing, it means that it's taking advantage of ARM-based processes like graviton, which many ISVs ar allowing their software to run on that lower cost platform. Or maybe there's some deep dark in the weeds secret going on inside Snowflake, but I doubt it. We're going to leave all that for there for now and keep following this trend. So it's clear just in summary that Snowflake they're the pace setter in this new exciting world of data but there's plenty of room for others. And they still have a lot to prove. For instance, one customer in ETR, CTO round table express skepticism that Snowflake will live up to its hype because its success is going to lead to more competition from well-established established players. This is a common theme you hear it all the time. It's pretty easy to reach that conclusion. But my guess is this the exact type of narrative that fuels Slootman and sucked him back into this game of Thrones. That's it for now, everybody. Remember, these episodes they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search braking analysis podcast and please subscribe to series. Check out ETR his website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikinbon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me, Email is David.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me at DVelante on Twitter or comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week everybody, be well and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante cloud repatriation is a term often used by technology companies the ones that don't operate a public cloud the marketing narrative most typically implies that customers have moved work to the public cloud and for a variety of reasons expense performance security etc are disillusioned with the cloud and as a result are repatriating workloads back to their safe comfy and cost-effective on-premises data center while we have no doubt this does sometimes happen the data suggests that this is a single digit de minimis phenomenon hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr some have written about the repatriation myth but in this breaking analysis we'll share hard data that we feel debunks the narrative and is currently being promoted by some we'll also take this opportunity to do our quarterly cloud revenue update and share with you our latest figures for the big four cloud vendors let's start by acknowledging that the definition of cloud is absolutely evolving and in this sense much of the vendor marketing is valid no longer is cloud just a distant set of remote services that lives up there in the cloud the cloud is increasingly becoming a ubiquitous sensing thinking acting set of resources that touches nearly every aspect of our lives the cloud is coming on prem and work is being done to connect clouds to each other and the cloud is extending to the near and far edge there's little question about that today's cloud is not just compute storage connectivity and spare capacity but increasingly it's a variety of services to analyze data and predict slash anticipate changes monitor and interpret streams of information apply machine intelligence to data to optimize business outcomes it's tooling to share data protect data visualize data and bring data to life supporting a whole new set of innovative applications notice there's a theme there data increasingly the cloud is where the high value data lives from a variety of sources and it's where organizations go to mine it because the cloud vendors have the best platforms for data and this is part of why the repatriation narrative is somewhat dubious actually a lot dubious because the volume of data in the cloud is growing at rates much faster than data on prem at least by a couple thousand basis points by our estimates annually so cloud data is where the action is and we'll talk about the edge in a moment but a new era of application development is emerging with containers at the center the concept of write wants run anywhere allows developers to take advantage of systems that run on-prem say a transaction system and tap data from multiple sources in various locations there might be multiple clouds or at the edge or wherever and combine that with immense cheap processing power that we've discussed extensively in previous breaking analysis episodes and you see this new breed of apps emerging that's powered by ai those are hitting the market so this is not a zero-sum game the cloud vendors have given the world an infrastructure gift by spending like crazy on capex more than a hundred billion last year on capex for example for the big four and in our view the players that don't own a cloud should stop being so defensive about it they should thank the hyperscalers and lay out a vision as to how they'll create a new abstraction layer on top of the public cloud and you know that's what they're doing and they'll certainly claim to be actively working on this vision but consider the pace of play between the hyperscalers and their traditional on-prem providers we believe the innovation gap is actually widening meaning the public cloud players are accelerating their innovation lead and will 100 compete for hybrid applications they have the resources the developer affinity they're doing custom silicon and have the expertise there and the tam expansion goals that loom large so while it's not a zero-sum game and hybrid is definitely real we think the cloud vendors continue to gain share most rapidly unless the hybrid crowd can move faster now of course there's the edge and that is a wild card but it seems that again the cloud players are very well positioned to innovate with custom silicon programmable infrastructure capex build-outs at the edge and new thinking around system architectures but let's get back to the core story here and take a look at cloud adoptions you hear many marketing messages that call into question the public cloud at its recent think conference ibm ceo arvind krishna said that only about 25 of workloads had moved into the public cloud and he made the statement that you know this might surprise you implying you might think it should be much higher than that well we're not surprised by that figure especially especially if you narrow it to mission critical work which ibm does in its annual report actually we think that's probably high for mission critical work moving to the cloud we think it's a lot lower than that but regardless we think there are other ways to measure cloud adoption and this chart here from david michelle's book c seeing digital shows the adoption rates for major technological innovations over the past century and the number of years how many years it took to get to 50 percent household adoption electricity took a long time as did telephones had that infrastructure that last mile build out radios and tvs were much faster given the lower infrastructure requirements pcs actually took a long time and the web around nine years from when the mosaic browser was introduced we took a stab at estimating the pace of adoption of public cloud and and within a decade it reached 50 percent adoption in top enterprises and today that figures easily north of 90 so as we said at the top cloud adoption is actually quite strong and that adoption is driving massive growth for the public cloud now we've updated our quarterly cloud figures and want to share them with you here are our latest estimates for the big four cloud players with only alibaba left to report now remember only aws and alibaba report clean or relatively clean i ass figures so we use survey data and financial analysis to estimate the actual numbers for microsoft in google it's a subset of what they report in q121 we estimate that the big 4is and pas revenue approached 27 billion that's q121 that figure represents about 40 growth relative to q1 2020. so our trailing 12-month calculation puts us at 94 billion so we're now on roughly 108 billion dollar run rate as you may recall we've predicted that figure will surpass 115 billion by year end when it's all said and done aws it remains the leader amongst the big four with just over half of the market that's down from around 63 percent for the full year of 2018. unquestionably as we've reported microsoft they're everywhere they're ubiquitous in the market and they continue to perform very well but anecdotally customers and partners in our community continue to report to us that the quality of the aws cloud is noticeably better in terms of reliability and overall security etc but it doesn't seem to change the trajectory of the share movements as microsoft's software dominance makes doing business with azure really easy now as of this recording alibaba has yet to report but we'll update these figures once their earnings are released let's dig into the growth rates associated with these revenue figures and make some specific comments there this chart here shows the growth trajectory for each of the big four google trails the pack in revenue but it's growing faster than the others from of course a smaller base google is being very aggressive on pricing and customer acquisition to that we say good google needs to grow faster in our view and they most certainly can afford to be aggressive as we said combined the big four are growing revenue at 40 on a trailing 12-month basis and that compares with low single-digit growth for on-prem infrastructure and we just don't see this picture changing in the near to midterm like storage growth revenue from the big public cloud players is expected to outpace spending on traditional on on-prem platforms by at least 2 000 basis points for the foreseeable future now interestingly while aws is growing more slowly than the others from a much larger 54 billion run rate we actually saw sequential quarterly growth from aws and q1 which breaks a two-year trend from where aws's q1 growth rate dropped sequentially from q4 interesting now of course at aws we're watching the changing of the guards andy jassy becoming ceo of amazon adam silipsky boomeranging back to aws from a very successful stint at tableau and max peterson taking over for for aws public sector replacing teresa carlson who is now president and heading up go to market at splunk so lots of changes and we think this is actually a real positive for aws as it promotes from within we like that it taps previous amazon dna from tableau salesforce and it promotes the head of aws to run all of amazon a signal to us that amazon will dig its heels in and further resist calls to split aws from the mothership so let's dig in a little bit more to this repatriation mythbuster theme the revenue numbers don't tell the entire story so it's worth drilling down a bit more let's look at the demand side of the equation and pull in some etr survey data now to set this up we want to explain the fundamental method used by etr around its net score metric net score measures spending momentum and measures five factors as shown in this wheel chart that shows the breakdown of spending for the aws cloud it shows the percentage of customers within the platform that are either one adopting the platform new that's the lime green in this wheel chart two increasing spending by more than five percent that's the forest green three flat spending between plus or minus five percent that's the gray and four decreasing spend by six percent or more that's the pink and finally five replacing the platform that's the bright red now dare i say that the bright red is a proxy for or at least an indicator of repatriation sure why not let's say that now net score is derived by subtracting the reds from the greens anything above 40 percent we consider to be elevated aws is at 57 so very high not much sign of leaving the cloud nest there but we know it's nuanced and you can make an argument for corner cases of repatriation but come on the numbers just don't bear out that narrative let's compare aws with some of the other vendors to test this theory theory a bit more this chart lines up net score granularity for aws microsoft and google it compares that to ibm and oracle now other than aws and google these figures include the entire portfolio for each company but humor me and let's make an assumption that cloud defections are lower than the overall portfolio average because cloud has more momentum it's getting more spend spending so just stare at the red bars for a moment the three cloud players show one two and three percent replacement rates respectively but ibm and oracle while still in the single digits which is good show noticeably higher replacement rates and meaningfully lower new adoptions in the lime green as well the spend more category in the forest green is much higher within the cloud companies and the spend less in the pink is notably lower and you can see the sample sizes on the right-hand side of the chart we're talking about many hundreds over 1300 in the case of microsoft and if we look if we put hpe or dell in the charts it would say several hundred responses many hundreds it would look similar to ibm and oracle where you have higher reds a bigger fat middle of gray and lower greens it's just the way it is it shouldn't surprise anyone and it's you know these are respectable but it's just what happens with mature companies so if customers are repatriating there's little evidence here we believe what's really happening is that vendor marketing people are talking to customers who are purposefully spinning up test and dev work in the cloud with the intent of running a workload or portions of that workload on prem and when they move into production they're counting that as repatriation and they're taking liberties with the data to flood the market okay well that's fair game and all's fair in tech marketing but that's not repatriation that's experimentation or sandboxing or testing and deving it's not i'm leaving the cloud because it's too expensive or less secure or doesn't perform for me we're not saying that those things don't happen but it's certainly not visible in the numbers as a meaningful trend that should factor into buying decisions now we perfectly recognize that organizations can't just refactor their entire applications application portfolios into the cloud and migrate and we also recognize that lift and shift without a change in operating model is not the best strategy in real migrations they take a long time six months to two years i used to have these conversations all the time with my colleague stu miniman and i spoke to him recently about these trends and i wanted to see if six months at red hat and ibm had changed his thinking on all this and the answer was a clear no but he did throw a little red hat kool-aid at me saying saying that the way they think about the cloud blueprint is from a developer perspective start by containerizing apps and then the devs don't need to think about where the apps live whether they're in the cloud whether they're on prem where they're at the edge and red hat the story is brings a consistency of operations for developers and operators and admins and the security team etc or any plat on any platform but i don't have to lock in to a platform and bring that everywhere with me i can work with anyone's platform so that's a very strong story there and it's how arvin krishna plans to win what he calls the architectural battle for hybrid cloud okay so let's take a take a look at how the big cloud vendors stack up with the not so big cloud platforms and all those in between this chart shows one of our favorite views plotting net score or spending velocity on the vertical axis and market share or pervasiveness in the data set on the horizontal axis the red shaded area is what we call the hybrid zone and the dotted red lines that's where the elite live anything above 40 percent net score on the on on the vertical axis we consider elevated anything to the right of 20 on the horizontal axis implies a strong market presence and by those kpis it's really a two horse race between aws and microsoft now as we suggested google still has a lot of work to do and if they're out buying market share that's a start now you see alibaba shown in the upper left hand corner high spending momentum but from a small sample size as etr's china respondent level is obviously much lower than it is in the u.s and europe and the rest of apac now that shaded res red zone is interesting and gives credence to the other big non-cloud owning vendor narrative that is out there that is the world is hybrid and it's true over the past several quarters we've seen this hybrid zone performing well prominent examples include vmware cloud on aws vmware cloud which would include vcf vmware cloud foundation dell's cloud which is heavily based on vmware and red hat open shift which perhaps is the most interesting given its ubiquity as we were talking about before and you can see it's very highly elevated on the net score axis right there with all the public cloud guys red hat is essentially the switzerland of cloud which in our view puts it in a very strong position and then there's a pack of companies hovering around the 20 vertical axis level that are hybrid that by the way you see openstack there that's from a large telco presence in the data set but any rate you see hpe oracle and ibm ibm's position in the cloud just tells you how important red hat is to ibm and without that acquisition you know ibm would be far less interesting in this picture oracle is oracle and actually has one of the strongest hybrid stories in the industry within its own little or not so little world of the red stack hpe is also interesting and we'll see how the big green lake ii as a service pricing push will impact its momentum in the cloud category remember the definition of cloud here is whatever the customer says it is so if a cio says we're buying cloud from hpe or ibm or cisco or dell or whomever we take her or his word for it and that's how it works cloud is in the eye of the buyer so you have the cloud expanding into the domain of on-premises and the on-prem guys finally getting their proverbial acts together with hybrid that they've been talking about since 2009 but it looks like it's finally becoming real and look it's true you're not going to migrate everything into the cloud but the cloud folks are in a very strong position they are on the growth flywheel as we've shown they each have adjacent businesses that are data based disruptive and dominant whether it's in retail or search or a huge software estate they are winning the data wars as well that seems to be pretty clear to us and they have a leg up in ai and i want to look at that can we all agree that ai is important i think we can machine intelligence is being infused into every application and today much of the ai work is being done in the cloud as modeling but in the future we see ai moving to the edge in real time and real-time inferencing is a dominant workload but today again 90 of it is building models and analyzing data a lot of that work happens in the cloud so who has the momentum in ai let's take a look here's that same xy graph with the net score against market share and look who has the dominant mind share and position and spending momentum microsoft aws and google you can see in the table insert in the lower right hand side they're the only three in the data set of 1 500 responses that have more than 100 n aws and microsoft have around 200 or even more in the case of microsoft and their net scores are all elevated above the 60 percent level remember that 40 percent that red line indicates the elevation mark the high elevation mark so the hyperscalers have both the market presence and the spend momentum so we think the rich get richer now they're not alone there are several companies above the 40 line databricks is bringing ai and data science to the world of data lakes with its managed services and it's executing very well salesforce is infusing infusing ai into its platform via einstein you got sap on there anaconda is kind of the gold standard that platform for data science and you can see c3 dot ai is tom siebel's company going after enterprise ai and data robot which like c3 ai is a small sample in the data set but they're highly elevated and they're simplifying machine learning now there's ibm watson it's actually doing okay i mean sure we'd like to see it higher given that ginny rometty essentially bet ibm's future on watson but it has a decent presence in the market and a respectable net score and ibm owns a cloud so okay at least it's a player not the dominance that many had hoped for when watson beat ken jennings in jeopardy back 10 years ago but it's okay and then is oracle they're now getting into the act like it always does they want they watched they waited they invested they spent money on r d and then boom they dove into the market and made a lot of noise and acted like they invented the concept oracle is infusing ai into its database with autonomous database and autonomous data warehouse and look that's what oracle does it takes best of breed industry concepts and technologies to make its products better you got to give oracle credit it invests in real tech and it runs the most mission critical apps in the world you can hate them if you want but they smoke everybody in that game all right let's take a look at another view of the cloud players and see how they stack up and where the big spenders live in the all-important fortune 500 this chart shows net score over time within the fortune 500 aws is particularly interesting because its net score overall is in the high 50s but in this large big spender category aws net score jumps noticeably to nearly 70 percent so there's a strong indication that aws the largest player also has momentum not just with small companies and startups but where it really counts from a revenue perspective in the largest companies so we think that's a very positive sign for aws all right let's wrap the realities of cloud repatriation are clear corner cases exist but it's not a trend to take to the bank although many public cloud users may think about repatriation most will not act on it those that do are the exception not the rule and the etr data shows that test and dev in the clouds is part of the cloud operating model even if the app will ultimately live on prem that's not repatriation that's just smart development practice and not every workload is will or should live in the cloud hybrid is real we agree and the big cloud players know it and they're positioning to bring their stacks on prem and to the edge and despite the risk of a lock-in and higher potential monthly bills and concerns over control the hyperscalers are well com positioned to compete in hybrid to win hybrid the legacy vendors must embrace the cloud and build on top of those giants and add value where the clouds aren't going to or can't or won't they got to find places where they can move faster than the hyperscalers and so far they haven't shown a clear propensity to do that hey that's how we see it what do you think okay well remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen you do a search breaking analysis podcast and please subscribe to the series check out etr's website at dot plus we also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com a lot of ways to get in touch you can email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com or dm me at dvalante on twitter comment on our linkedin post i always appreciate that this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week everybody stay safe be well and we'll see you next time you

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Last year in 2020 it was good to be in tech and even better to be in the cloud, as organizations had to rely on remote cloud services to keep things running. We believe that tech spending will increase seven to 8% in 2021. But we don't expect investments in cloud computing to sharply attenuate, when workers head back to the office. It's not a zero sum game, and we believe that pent up demand in on-prem data centers will complement those areas of high growth that we saw last year, namely cloud, AI, security, data and automation. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis we'll provide our take on the latest ETR COVID survey, and share why we think the tech boom will continue, well into the future. So let's take a look at the state of tech spending. Fitch Ratings has upped its outlook for global GDP to 6.1% for January's 5.3% projection. We've always expected tech spending to outperform GDP by at least 100 to 200 basis points, so we think 2021 could see 8% growth for the tech sector. That's a massive swing from last year's,5% contraction, and it's being powered by spending in North America, a return of small businesses, and, the massive fiscal stimulus injection from the U.S led central bank actions. As we'll show you, the ETR survey data suggests that cloud spending is here to stay, and a dollar spent back in the data center doesn't necessarily mean less spending on digital initiatives, generally and cloud specifically. Moreover, we see pent up demand for core on-prem data center infrastructure, especially networking. Now one caveat, is we continue to have concerns for the macro on-prem data storage sector. There are pockets of positivity, for example, pure storage seems to have accelerating momentum. But generally the data suggests the cloud and flash headroom, continue, to pressure spending on storage. Now we don't expect the stock market's current rotation out of tech. We don't expect that that changes the fundamental spending dynamic. We see cloud, AI and ML, RPA, cybersecurity and collaboration investments still hovering above, that 40% net score. Actually cybersecurity is not quite there, but it is a priority area for CIOs. We'll talk about that more later. And we expect that those high growth sectors will stay steady in ETRs April survey along with continued spending on application modernization in the form of containers. Now let me take a moment to comment on the recent action in tech stocks. If you've been following the market, you know that the rate on the 10-year Treasury note has been rising. This is important, because the 10 years of benchmark, and it affects other interest rates. As interest rates rise, high growth tech stocks, they become less attractive. And that's why there's been a rotation, out of the big tech high flyer names of 2020. So why do high growth stocks become less attractive to investors when interest rates rise? Well, it's because investors are betting on the future value of cash flows for these companies, and when interest rates go up, the future values of those cash flows shrink, making the valuations less attractive. Let's take an example. Snowflake is a company with a higher revenue multiple than pretty much any other stock, out there in the tech industry. Revenues at the company are growing more than 100%, last quarter, and they're projected to have a revenue of a billion dollars next year. Now on March 8th, Snowflake was valued at around $80 billion and was trading at roughly 75x forward revenue. Today, toward the middle the end of March. Snowflake is valued at about 50 billion or roughly 45x forward revenue. So lower growth companies that throw off more cash today, become more attractive in a rising rate climate because, the cash they throw off today is more valuable than it was in a low rate environment. The cash is there today versus, a high flying tech company where the cash is coming down the road and doesn't have to be discounted on a net present value basis. So the point is, this is really about math, not about fundamental changes in spending. Now the ETR spending data has shown, consistent upward momentum, and that cycle is continuing, leading to our sanguine outlook for the sector. This chart here shows the progression of CIO expectations on spending over time, relative to previous years. And you can see the steady growth in expectations each quarter, hitting 6% growth in 2021 versus 2020 for the full year. ETR estimates show and they do this with a 95% confidence level, that spending is going to be up between 5.1 to 6.8% this year. We are even more up optimistic accounting for recent upward revisions in GDP. And spending outside the purview of traditional IT, which we think will be a tailwind, due to digital initiatives and shadow tech spending. ETR covers some of that, but it is really a CIO heavy survey. So there's some parts that we think can grow even faster, than ETR survey suggests. Now the positive spending outlook, it's broad based across virtually all industries that ETR tracks. Government spending leads the pack by a wide margin, which probably gives you a little bit of heartburn. I know it does for me, yikes. Healthcare is interesting. Perhaps due to pent up demand, healthcare has been so busy saving lives, that it has some holes to fill. But look at the sectors at 5% or above. Only education really lags notably. Even energy which got crushed last year, showing a nice rebound. Now let's take a look at some of the strategies that organizations have employed during COVID, and see how they've changed. Look, the picture is actually quite positive in our view. This data shows the responses over five survey snapshots, starting in March of 2020. Most people are still working from home that really hasn't changed much. But we're finally seeing some loosening of the travel restrictions imposed last year, is a notable drop in canceled business trips. It's still high, but it's very promising trend. Quick aside, looks like Mobile World Congress is happening in late June in Barcelona. The host of the conference just held a show in Shanghai and 20,000 attendees showed up. theCube is planning to be there in Barcelona along with TelcoDr, Who took over Ericsson's 65,000 square foot space, when Ericsson tapped out of the conference. We are good together we're going to lay out the future of the digital telco, in a hybrid: physical slash virtual event. With the ecosystem of telcos, cloud, 5G and software communities. We're very excited to be at the heart of reinventing the event experience for the coming decade. Okay, back to the data. Hiring freezes, way down. Look at new IT deployments near flat from last quarter, with big uptick from a year ago. Layoffs, trending downward, that's really a positive. Hiring momentum is there. So really positive signs for tech in this data. Now let's take a look at the work from home, survey data. We've been sharing this for several quarters now, remember, the data showed that pre pandemic around 15 to 16% of employees worked remotely. And we had been sharing the CIO is expected that figure to slowly decline from the 70% pandemic levels and come into the spring in the summer, hovering in the 50% range. But then eventually landing in the mid 30s. Now the current survey shows 31%. So, essentially, it's exactly double from the pre COVID levels. It's going to be really interesting to see because across the board organizations are reporting, big increases in productivity as a result of how they've responded to COVID in the remote work practices and the infrastructure that's been put in place. And look, a lot of workers are expecting to stay remote. So we'll see where this actually lands. My personal feelings, the number is going to be higher than the low 30s. Perhaps well into the mid to upper 30s. Now let's take a look at the cloud and on-prem MCS. So were a little bit out on a limb here with a can't have a cake and eat it too scenario. Meaning pent up demand for data center infrastructure on-prem is going to combine with the productivity benefits of cloud in the digital imperative. So that means that technology budgets are going to get a bigger piece of the overall spending pie, relative to other initiatives. At least for the near term. ETR asked respondents about how the return to physical, is going to impact on-prem architectures and applications. You can see 63% of the respondents, had a cloud friendly answer, as shown in the first two bars. Whereas 30% had an on-prem friendly answer, as shown in the next three bars. Now, what stands out, is that only 5% of respondents plan to increase their on-prem spend to above pre COVID levels. Sarbjeet Johal pinged me last night and asked me to jump into a clubhouse session with Martin Casado and the other guys from Andreessen Horowitz. They were having this conversation about the coming cloud backlash. And how cloud native companies are spending so much, too much, in their opinion, on AWS and other clouds. And at some point, as they scale, they're going to have to claw back technology infrastructure on-prem, due to their AWS vague. I don't know. This data, it certainly does not suggest that that is happening today. So the cloud vendors, they keep getting more volume, you would think they're going to have better prices and better economies of scales than we'll see on-prem. And as we pointed out, the repatriation narrative that you hear from many on-prem vendors is kind of dubious. Look, if AWS Azure, and Google can't provide IT infrastructure and better security than I can on-prem, then something is amiss. Now however, they are creating an oligopoly. And if they get too greedy and get hooked on the margin crack, of cloud, they'd better be careful, or they're going to become the next regulated utility? So, it's going to be interesting to see if the Andreessen scenario has (laughs) legs, maybe they have another agenda, maybe a lot of their portfolio companies, have ideas are around doing things to help on-prem? Why are we so optimistic that we'll see a stronger 2021 on-prem spend if the cloud continues to command so much attention? Well, first, because nearly 20% of customers say there will be an uptick in on-prem spending. Second, we saw in 2020, that the big on-prem players, Dell, VMware, Oracle, and SAP in particular, and even IBM made it through, okay. And they've managed to figure out how to work through the crisis. And finally, we think that the lines between on-prem and cloud, and hybrid and cross cloud and edge will blur over the next five years. We've talked about this a lot, that abstraction layer that we see coming, and there's some real value opportunities there. It'll take some time. But we do see there, that the traditional vendors, are going to attack those new opportunities and create value across clouds and hybrid systems and out to the edge. Now, as those demarcation lines become more gray, a hybrid world is emerging that is going to require hardware and software investments that reduce latency and are proximate to users buildings and distributed infrastructure. So we see spending in certain key areas, continuing to be strong across the board, will require connecting on-prem to cloud in edge workloads. Here's where it CIOs see the action, asked to cite the technologies that will get the most attention in the next 12 months. These seven stood out among the rest. No surprise that cyber comes out as top priority, with cloud pretty high as well. But interesting to see the uptick in collaboration in networking. Execs are seeing the importance of collaboration technologies for remote workers. No doubt, there's lots of Microsoft Teams in that bar. But there's some pent up demand it seems for networking, we find that very interesting. Now, just to put this in context, in a spending context. We'll share a graphic from a previous breaking analysis episode. This chart shows the net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis. And the market share or pervasiveness in the ETR data set on the horizontal axis. The big four areas of spend momentum are cloud, ML and AI, containers in RPA. This is from the January survey, we don't expect a big change in the upcoming April data, we'll see. But these four stand out above the 40% line that we've highlighted, which to us is an indicator of elevated momentum. Now, note on the horizontal axis only cloud, cloud is the only sector that enjoys both greater than 60% market share on the x axis, and is above the 40% net score line and the y axis. So even though security is a top priority as we were talking about earlier. It competes with other budget items, still right there certainly on the horizontal axis, but it competes with other initiatives for that spend momentum. Okay, so key takeaways. Seven to 8% tech spending growth expected for 2021. Cloud is leading the charge, it's big and it has spending momentum, so we don't expect a big rotation out of cloud back to on-prem. Now, having said that, we think on-prem will benefit from a return to a post isolation economy. Because of that pent up demand. But we caution we think there are some headwinds, particularly in the storage sector. Rotation away from tech in the stock market is not based on a fundamental change in spending in our view, or demand, rather it's stock market valuation math. So there should be some good buying opportunities for you in the coming months. As money moves out of tech into those value stocks. But the market is very hard to predict. Oh 2020 was easy to make money. All you had to do is buy high growth and momentum tech stocks on dips. 2021 It's not that simple. So you got to do your homework. And as we always like to stress, formulate a thesis and give it time to work for you. Iterate and improve when you feel like it's not working for you. But stay current, and be true to your strategy. Okay, that's it for today. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. So please subscribe. I publish weekly in siliconangle.com and wikibond.com and always appreciate the comments on LinkedIn. You can DM me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. Don't forget to check out etr.plus where all the survey data science actually resides. Some really interesting things that they're about to launch. So do follow that. This is Dave vellante. Thanks for watching theCube Insights powered by ETR. Good health to you, be safe and we'll see you next time.

>> Narrator: From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto, in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Tech spending is poised to rebound as the economy reopens in 2021. CIOs and IT buyers, they expect a 4% increase in 2021 spending based on ETR's latest surveys. And we believe that number will actually be higher, in the six to 7% range even. The big drivers are continued fine tuning of, and investment in digital strategies, for example, cloud security, AI data and automation. Application modernization initiatives continue to attract attention, and we also expect more support with work from home demand, for instance laptops, et cetera. And we're even seeing pent-up demand for data center infrastructure and other major risks to this scenario, they remain the pace of the reopening, of course, no surprise there, however, even if there are speed bumps to the vaccine rollout and achieving herd immunity, we believe tech spending will grow at least two points faster than GDP, which is currently forecast at 4.1%. Hello and welcome to this week's (indistinct) on Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we want to update you on our latest macro view of the market, and then highlight a few key sectors that we've been watching, namely cloud with a particular drill down on Microsoft and AWS, security, database, and then we'll look at Dell and VMware as a proxy for the data center. Now here's a look at what IT buyers and CIOs think. This chart shows the latest survey data from ETR and it compares the December results with the year earlier survey. Consistent with our earlier reporting, we see a kind of a swoosh-like recovery with a slower first half and accelerating in the second half. And we think that CIOs are being prudently conservative, 'cause if GDP grows at 4% plus, we fully expect tech spending to outperform. Now let's look at the factors that really drive some of our thinking on that. This is data that we've shown before it asks buyers if they're initiating any of the following strategies in the coming quarter, in the face of the pandemic and you can see there's no change in work from home, really no change in business travel, but hiring freezes, freezing new deployments, these continue to trend down. New deployments continue to be up, layoffs are trending down and hiring is also up. So these are all good signs. Now having said that, one part of our scenario assumes workers return and the current 75% of employees that work from home will moderate by the second half to around 35%. Now that's double the historical average, and that large percentage, that will necessitate continued work from home infrastructure spend, we think and drive HQ spending as well in the data center. Now the caveat of course is that lots of companies are downsizing corporate headquarters, so that could weigh on this dual investment premise that we have, but generally with the easy compare in these tailwinds, we expect solid growth in this coming year. Now, what sectors are showing growth? Well, the same big four that we've been talking about for 10 months, machine intelligence or AI/ML, RPA and broader automation agendas, these lead the pack along with containers and cloud. These four, you can see here above that red dotted line at 40%, that's a 40% net score which is a measure of spending momentum. Now cloud, it's the most impressive because what you see in this chart is spending momentum or net score in the vertical axis and market share or pervasiveness in the data center on the horizontal axis. Now cloud it stands out, as it's has a large market share and it's got spending velocity tied to it. So, I mean that is really impressive for that sector. Now, what we want to do here is do a quick update on the big three cloud revenue for 2020. And so we're looking back at 2020, and this really updates the chart that we showed last week at our CUBE on Cloud event, the only differences Azure, Microsoft reported and this chart shows IaaS estimates for the big three, we had had Microsoft Azure in Q4 at 6.8 billion, it came in at 6.9 billion based on our cloud model. Now the points we previously made on this chart, they stand out. AWS is the biggest, and it's growing more slowly but it throws off more absolute dollars, Azure grew 48% sent last quarter, we had it slightly lower and so we've adjusted that and that's incredible. And Azure continues to close that gap on AWS and we'll see how AWS and Google do when they report next week. We definitely think based on Microsoft result that AWS has upside to these numbers, especially given the Q4 push, year end, and the continued transition to cloud and even Google we think can benefit. Now what we want to do is take a closer look at Microsoft and AWS and drill down into those two cloud leaders. So take a look at this graphic, it shows ETR's survey data for net score across Microsoft's portfolio, and we've selected a couple of key areas. Virtually every sector is in the green and has forward momentum relative to the October survey. Power Automate, which is RPA, Teams is off the chart, Azure itself we've reported on that, is the linchpin of Microsoft's innovation strategy, serverless, AI analytics, containers, they all have over 60% net scores. Skype is the only dog and Microsoft is doing a fabulous job of transitioning its customers to Teams away from Skype. I think there are still people using Skype. Yes, I know it's crazy. Now let's take a look at the AWS portfolio drill down, there's a similar story here for Amazon and virtually all sectors are well into the 50% net scores or above. Yeah, it's lower than Microsoft, but still AWS, very, very large, so across the board strength for the company and it's impressive for a $45 billion cloud company. Only Chime is lagging behind AWS and maybe, maybe AWS needs a Teams-like version to migrate folks off of Chime. Although you do see it's an uptick there relative to the last survey, but still not burning the house down. Now let's take a look at security. It's a sector that we've highlighted for several quarters, and it's really undergoing massive change. This of course was accelerated by the work from home trend, and this chart ranks the CIO and CSO priorities for security, and here you see identity access management stands out. So this bodes well for the likes of Okta and SailPoint, of course endpoint security also ranks highly, and that's good news for a company like CrowdStrike or Forescout, Carbon Black, which was acquired by VMware. And you can see network security is right there as well, I mean, it's all kind of network security but Cisco, Palo Alto, Fortinet are some of the names that we follow closely there, and cloud security, Microsoft, Amazon and Zscaler also stands out. Now, what we want to do now is drill in a little bit and take a look at the vendor map for security. So this chart shows one of our favorite views, it's getting net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal. Okta, note in the upper right of that little chart there that table, Okta remains the highest net score of all the players that we're showing here, SailPoint and CrowdStrike definitely looming large, Microsoft continues to be impressive because of its both presence, you can see that dot in the upper right there and it's momentum, and you know, for context, we've included some of the legacy names like RSA and McAfee and Symantec, you could see them in the red as is IBM, and then the rest of the pack, they're solidly in the green, we've said this before security remains a priority, it's a very strong market, CIOs and CSOs have to spend on it, they're accelerating that spending, and it's a fragmented space with lots of legitimate players, and it's undergoing a major change, and with the SolarWinds hack, it's on everyone's radar even more than we've seen with earlier high profile breaches, we have some other data that we'll share in the future, on that front, but in the interest of time, we'll press on here. Now, one of the other sectors that's undergoing significant changes, database. And so if you take a look at the latest survey data, so we're showing that same xy-view, the first thing that we call your attention to is Snowflake, and we've been reporting on this company for years now, and sharing ETR data for well over a year. The company continues to impress us with spending momentum, this last survey it increased from 75% last quarter to 83% in the latest survey. This is unbelievable because having now done this for quite some time, many, many quarters, these numbers are historically not sustainable and very rarely do you see that kind of increase from the mid-70s up into the '80s. So now AWS is the other big call out here. This is a company that has become a database powerhouse, and they've done that from a standing start and they've become a leader in the market. Google's momentum is also impressive, especially with it's technical chops, it gets very, very high marks for things like BigQuery, and so you can see it's got momentum, it does not have the presence in the market to the right, that for instance AWS and Microsoft have, and that brings me to Microsoft is also notable, because it's so large and look at the momentum, it's got very, very strong spending momentum as well, so look, this database market it's seeing dramatically different strategies. Take Amazon for example, it's all about the right tool for the right job, they get a lot of different data stores with specialized databases, for different use cases, Aurora for transaction processing, Redshift for analytics, I want a key value store, hey, some DynamoDB, graph database? You got little Neptune, document database? They've got that, they got time series database, so very, very granular portfolio. You got Oracle on the other end of the spectrum. It along with several others are converging capabilities and that's a big trend that we're seeing across the board, into, sometimes we call it a mono database instead of one database fits all. Now Microsoft's world kind of largely revolves around SQL and Azure SQL but it does offer other options. But the big difference between Microsoft and AWS is AWS' approach is really to maximize the granularity in the technical flexibility with fine-grained access to primitives and APIs, that's their philosophy, whereas Microsoft with synapse for example, they're willing to build that abstraction layer as a means of simplifying the experiences. AWS, they've been reluctant to do this, their approach favors optionality and their philosophy is as the market changes, that will give them the ability to move faster. Microsoft's philosophy favors really abstracting that complexity, now that adds overhead, but it does simplify, so these are two very interesting counter poised strategies that we're watching and we think there's room for both, they're just not necessarily one better than the other, it's just different philosophies and different approaches. Now Snowflake for its part is building a data cloud on top of AWS, Google and Azure, so it's another example of adding value by abstracting away the underlying infrastructure complexity and it obviously seems to be working well, albeit at a much smaller scale at this point. Now let's talk a little bit about some of the on-prem players, the legacy players, and we'll use Dell and VMware as proxies for these markets. So what we're showing here in this chart is Dell's net scores across select parts of its portfolio and it's a pretty nice picture for Dell, I mean everything, but Desktop is showing forward momentum relative to previous surveys, laptops continue to benefit from the remote worker trend, in fact, PCs actually grew this year if you saw our spot on Intel last week, PCs had peaked, PC volume at peaked in 2011 and it actually bumped up this year but it's not really, we don't think sustainable, but nonetheless it's been a godsend during the pandemic as data center infrastructure has been softer. Dell's cloud is up and that really comprises a bunch of infrastructure along with some services, so that's showing some strength that both, look at storage and server momentum, they seem to be picking up and this is really important because these two sectors have been lagging for Dell. But this data supports our pent-up demand premise for on-prem infrastructure, and we'll see if the ETR survey which is forward-looking translates into revenue growth for Dell and others like HPE. Now, what about Dell's favorite new toy over at VMware? Let's take a look at that picture for VMware, it's pretty solid. VMware cloud on AWS, we've been reporting on that for several quarters now, it's showing up in the ETR survey and it is well, it's somewhat moderating, it's coming down from very high spending momentum, so it's still, we think very positive. NSX momentum is coming back in the survey, I'm not sure what happened there, but it's been strong, VMware's on-prem cloud with VCF VMware Cloud Foundation, that's strong, Tanzu was a bit surprising because containers are very hot overall, so that's something we're watching, seems to be moderating, maybe the market says okay, you did great VMware, you're embracing containers, but Tanzu is maybe not the, we'll see, we'll see how that all plays out. I think it's the right strategy for VMware to embrace that container strategy, but we said remember, everybody said containers are going to kill VMware, well, VMware rightly, they've embraced cloud with VMware cloud on AWS, they're embracing containers. So we're seeing much more forward-thinking strategies and management philosophies. Carbon Black, that benefits from the security tailwind, and then the core infrastructure looks good, vSAN, vSphere and VDI. So the big thing that we're watching for VMware, is of course, who's going to be the next CEO. Is it going to be Zane Rowe, who's now the acting CEO? And of course he's been the CFO for years. Who's going to get that job? Will it be Sanjay Poonen? The choice I think is going to say much about the direction of VMware going forward in our view. Succeeding Pat Gelsinger is like, it's going to be like following Peyton Manning at QB, but this summer we expect Dell to spin out VMware or do some other kind of restructuring, and restructure both VMware and Dell's balance sheet, it wants to get both companies back to investment grade and it wants to set a new era in motion or it's going to set a new era in motion. Now that financial transaction, maybe it does call for a CFO in favor of such a move and can orchestrate such a move, but certainly Sanjay Poonen has been a loyal soldier and he's performed very well in his executive roles, not just at VMware, but previous roles, SAP and others. So my opinion there's no doubt he's ready and he's earned it, and with, of course with was no offense to Zane Rowe by the way, he's an outstanding executive too, but the big questions for Dell and VMware's what will the future of these two companies look like? They've dominated, VMware especially has dominated the data center for a decade plus, they're responding to cloud, and some of these new trends, they've made tons of acquisitions and Gelsinger has orchestrated TAM expansion. They still got to get through paying down the debt so they can really double down on an innovation agenda from an R&D perspective, that's been somewhat hamstrung and to their credit, they've done a great job of navigating through Dell's tendency to take VMware cash and restructure its business to go public, and now to restructure both companies to do the pivotal acquisition, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera and clean up it's corporate structure. So it's been a drag on VMware's ability to use its free cash flow for R&D, and again it's been very impressive what it's been able to accomplish there. On the Dell side of the house, it's R&D largely has gone to kind of new products, follow-on products and evolutionary kind of approach, and it would be nice to see Dell be able to really double down on the innovation agenda especially with the looming edge opportunity. Look R&D is the lifeblood of a tech company, and there's so many opportunities across the clouds and at The Edge we've talked this a lot, I haven't talked much about or any about IBM, we wrote a piece last year on IBM's innovation agenda, really hinges on its R&D. It seems to be continuing to favor dividends and stock buybacks, that makes it difficult for the company to really invest in its future and grow, its promised growth, Ginni Rometty promised growth, that never really happened, Arvind Krishna is now promising growth, hopefully it doesn't fall into the same pattern of missed promises, and my concern there is that R&D, you can't just flick a switch and pour money and get a fast return, it takes years to get that. (Dave chuckles) We talked about Intel last week, so similar things going on, but I digress. Look, these guys are going to require in my view, VMware, Dell, I'll put HPE in there, they're going to require organic investment to get back to growth, so we're watching these factors very, very closely. Okay, got to wrap up here, so we're seeing IT spending growth coming in as high as potentially 7% this year, and it's going to be powered by the same old culprits, cloud, AI, automation, we'll be doing an RPA update soon here, application modernization, and the new work paradigm that we think will force increased investments in digital initiatives. The doubling of the expectation of work from home is significant, and so we see this hybrid world, not just hybrid cloud but hybrid work from home and on-prem, this new digital world, and it's going to require investment in both cloud and on-prem, and we think that's going to lift both boats but cloud, clearly the big winner. And we're not by any means suggesting that their growth rates are going to somehow converge, they're not, cloud will continue to outpace on-prem by several hundred basis points, throughout the decade we think. And AWS and Microsoft are in the top division of that cloud bracket. Security markets are really shifting and we continue to like the momentum of companies in identity and endpoint and cloud security, especially the pure plays like CrowdStrike and Okta and SailPoint, and Zscaler and others that we've mentioned over the past several quarters, but CSOs tell us they want to work with the big guys too, because they trust them, especially Palo Alto networks, Cisco obviously in the mix, their security business continues to outperform the balance of Cisco's portfolio, and these companies, they have resources to withstand market shifts and we'll do a deeper drill down at the security soon and update you on other trends, on other companies in that space. Now the database world, it continues to heat up, I used to say on theCUBE all the time that decade and a half ago database was boring and now database is anything but, and thank you to cloud databases and especially Snowflake, it's data cloud vision, it's simplicity, we're seeing lots of different ways though, to skin the cat, and while there's disruption, we believe Oracle's position is solid because it owns Mission-Critical, that's its stronghold, and we really haven't seen those workloads migrate into the cloud, and frankly, I think it's going to be hard to rest those away from Oracle. Now, AWS and Microsoft, they continue to be the easy choice for a lot of their customers. Microsoft migrating its software state, AWS continues to innovate, we've got a lot of database choices, the right tool for the right job, so there's lots of innovation going on in databases beyond these names as well, and we'll continue to update you on these markets shortly. Now, lastly, it's quite notable how well some of the legacy names have navigated through COVID. Sure, they're not rocketing like many of the work-from-home stocks, but they've been able to thus far survive, and in the example of Dell and VMware, the portfolio diversity has been a blessing. The bottom line is the first half of 2021 seems to be shaping up as we expected, momentum for the strongest digital plays, low interest rates helping large established companies hang in there with strong balance sheets, and large customer bases. And what will be really interesting to see is what happens coming out of the pandemic. Will the rich get richer? Yeah, well we think so. But we see the legacy players adjusting their business models, embracing change in the market and steadily moving forward. And we see at least a dozen new players hitting the radar that could become leaders in the coming decade, and as always, we'll be highlighting many of those in our future episodes. Okay, that's it for now, listen, these episodes remember, they're all available as podcasts, all you got to do is search for Breaking Analysis Podcasts and you'll you'll get them so please listen, like them, if you like them, share them, really, I always appreciate that, I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, and really would appreciate your comments and always do in my LinkedIn posts, or you can always DM me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com, and tell me what you think is happening out there. Don't forget to check out ETR+ for all the survey action, this is David Vellante, thanks for watching theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Stay safe, we'll see you next time. (downbeat music)