(upbeat music) >> Good morning everybody. Welcome back to Las Vegas. This is day four of theCUBE's wall-to-wall coverage of our Super Bowl, aka AWS re:Invent 2022. I'm here with my co-host, Paul Gillin. My name is Dave Vellante. Sanjay Poonen is in the house, CEO and president of Cohesity. He's sitting in as our guest market watcher, market analyst, you know, deep expertise, new to the job at Cohesity. He was kind enough to sit in, and help us break down what's happening at re:Invent. But Paul, first thing, this morning we heard from Werner Vogels. He was basically given a masterclass on system design. It reminded me of mainframes years ago. When we used to, you know, bury through those IBM blue books and red books. You remember those Sanjay? That's how we- learned back then. >> Oh God, I remember those, Yeah. >> But it made me think, wow, now you know IBM's more of a systems design, nobody talks about IBM anymore. Everybody talks about Amazon. So you wonder, 20 years from now, you know what it's going to be. But >> Well- >> Werner's amazing. >> He pulled out a 24 year old document. >> Yup. >> That he had written early in Amazon's evolution about synchronous design or about essentially distributed architectures that turned out to be prophetic. >> His big thing was nature is asynchronous. So systems are asynchronous. Synchronous is an illusion. It's an abstraction. It's kind of interesting. But, you know- >> Yeah, I mean I've had synonyms for things. Timeless architecture. Werner's an absolute legend. I mean, when you think about folks who've had, you know, impact on technology, you think of people like Jony Ive in design. >> Dave: Yeah. >> You got to think about people like Werner in architecture and just the fact that Andy and the team have been able to keep him engaged that long... I pay attention to his keynote. Peter DeSantis has obviously been very, very influential. And then of course, you know, Adam did a good job, you know, watching from, you know, having watched since I was at the first AWS re:Invent conference, at time was President SAP and there was only a thousand people at this event, okay? Andy had me on stage. I think I was one of the first guest of any tech company in 2011. And to see now this become like, it's a mecca. It's a mother of all IT events, and watch sort of even the transition from Andy to Adam is very special. I got to catch some of Ruba's keynote. So while there's some new people in the mix here, this has become a force of nature. And the last time I was here was 2019, before Covid, watched the last two ones online. But it feels like, I don't know 'about what you guys think, it feels like it's back to 2019 levels. >> I was here in 2019. I feel like this was bigger than 2019 but some people have said that it's about the same. >> I think it was 60,000 versus 50,000. >> Yes. So close. >> It was a little bigger in 2019. But it feels like it's more active. >> And then last year, Sanjay, you weren't here but it was 25,000, which was amazing 'cause it was right in that little space between Omicron, before Omicron hit. But you know, let me ask you a question and this is really more of a question about Amazon's maturity and I know you've been following them since early days. But the way I get the question, number one question I get from people is how is Amazon AWS going to be different under Adam than it was under Andy? What do you think? >> I mean, Adam's not new because he was here before. In some senses he knows the Amazon culture from prior, when he was running sales and marketing prior. But then he took the time off and came back. I mean, this will always be, I think, somewhat Andy's baby, right? Because he was the... I, you know, sent him a text, "You should be really proud of what you accomplished", but you know, I think he also, I asked him when I saw him a few weeks ago "Are you going to come to re:Invent?" And he says, "No, I want to leave this to be Adam's show." And Adam's going to have a slightly different view. His keynotes are probably half the time. It's a little bit more vision. There was a lot more customer stories at the beginning of it. Taking you back to the inspirational pieces of it. I think you're going to see them probably pulling up the stack and not just focused in infrastructure. Many of their platform services are evolved. Many of their, even application services. I'm surprised when I talk to customers. Like Amazon Connect, their sort of call center type technologies, an app layer. It's getting a lot. I mean, I've talked to a couple of Fortune 500 companies that are moving off Ayer to Connect. I mean, it's happening and I did not know that. So it's, you know, I think as they move up the stack, the platform's gotten more... The data centric stack has gotten, and you know, in the area we're working with Cohesity, security, data protection, they're an investor in our company. So this is an important, you know, both... I think tech player and a partner for many companies like us. >> I wonder the, you know, the marketplace... there's been a big push on the marketplace by all the cloud companies last couple of years. Do you see that disrupting the way softwares, enterprise software is sold? >> Oh, for sure. I mean, you have to be a ostrich with your head in the sand to not see this wave happening. I mean, what's it? $150 billion worth of revenue. Even though the growth rates dipped a little bit the last quarter or so, it's still aggregatively between Amazon and Azure and Google, you know, 30% growth. And I think we're still in the second or third inning off a grand 1 trillion or 2 trillion of IT, shifting not all of it to the cloud, but significantly faster. So if you add up all of the big things of the on-premise world, they're, you know, they got to a certain size, their growth is stable, but stalling. These guys are growing significantly faster. And then if you add on top of them, platform companies the data companies, Snowflake, MongoDB, Databricks, you know, Datadog, and then apps companies on top of that. I think the move to the Cloud is inevitable. In SaaS companies, I don't know why you would ever implement a CRM solution on-prem. It's all gone to the Cloud. >> Oh, it is. >> That happened 15 years ago. I mean, begin within three, five years of the advent of Salesforce. And the same thing in HR. Why would you deploy a HR solution now? You've got Workday, you've got, you know, others that are so some of those apps markets are are just never coming back to an on-prem capability. >> Sanjay, I want to ask you, you built a reputation for being able to, you know, forecast accurately, hit your plan, you know, you hit your numbers, you're awesome operator. Even though you have a, you know, technology degree, which you know, that's a two-tool star, multi-tool star. But I call it the slingshot economy. This is like, I mean I've seen probably more downturns than anybody in here, you know, given... Well maybe, maybe- >> Maybe me. >> You and I both. I've never seen anything like this, where where visibility is so unpredictable. The economy is sling-shotting. It's like, oh, hurry up, go Covid, go, go go build, build, build supply, then pull back. And now going forward, now pulling back. Slootman said, you know, on the call, "Hey the guide, is the guide." He said, "we put it out there, We do our best to hit it." But you had CrowdStrike had issues you know, mid-market, ServiceNow. I saw McDermott on the other day on the, on the TV. I just want to pay, you know, buy from the guy. He's so (indistinct) >> But mixed, mixed results, Salesforce, you know, Octa now pre-announcing, hey, they're going to be, or announcing, you know, better visibility, forward guide. Elastic kind of got hit really hard. HPE and Dell actually doing really well in the enterprise. >> Yep. >> 'Course Dell getting killed in the client. But so what are you seeing out there? How, as an executive, do you deal with such poor visibility? >> I think, listen, what the last two or three years have taught us is, you know, with the supply chain crisis, with the surge that people thought you may need of, you know, spending potentially in the pandemic, you have to start off with your tech platform being 10 x better than everybody else. And differentiate, differentiate. 'Cause in a crowded market, but even in a market that's getting tougher, if you're not differentiating constantly through technology innovation, you're going to get left behind. So you named a few places, they're all technology innovators, but even if some of them are having challenges, and then I think you're constantly asking yourselves, how do you move from being a point product to a platform with more and more services where you're getting, you know, many of them moving really fast. In the case of Roe, I like him a lot. He's probably one of the most savvy operators, also that I respect. He calls these speedboats, and you know, his core platform started off with the firewall network security. But he's built now a very credible cloud security, cloud AI security business. And I think that's how you need to be thinking as a tech executive. I mean, if you got core, your core beachhead 10 x better than everybody else. And as you move to adjacencies in these new platforms, have you got now speedboats that are getting to a point where they are competitive advantage? Then as you think of the go-to-market perspective, it really depends on where you are as a company. For a company like our size, we need partners a lot more. Because if we're going to, you know, stand on the shoulders of giants like Isaac Newton said, "I see clearly because I stand on the shoulders giants." I need to really go and cultivate Amazon so they become our lead partner in cloud. And then appropriately Microsoft and Google where I need to. And security. Part of what we announced last week was, last month, yeah, last couple of weeks ago, was the data security alliance with the biggest security players. What was I trying to do with that? First time ever done in my industry was get Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Wallace, Tenable, CyberArk, Splunk, all to build an alliance with me so I could stand on their shoulders with them helping me. If you're a bigger company, you're constantly asking yourself "how do you make sure you're getting your, like Amazon, their top hundred customers spending more with that?" So I think the the playbook evolves, and I'm watching some of these best companies through this time navigate through this. And I think leadership is going to be tested in enormously interesting ways. >> I'll say. I mean, Snowflake is really interesting because they... 67% growth, which is, I mean, that's best in class for a company that's $2 billion. And, but their guide was still, you know, pretty aggressive. You know, so it's like, do you, you know, when it when it's good times you go, "hey, we can we can guide conservatively and know we can beat it." But when you're not certain, you can't dial down too far 'cause your investors start to bail on you. It's a really tricky- >> But Dave, I think listen, at the end of the day, I mean every CEO should not be worried about the short term up and down in the stock price. You're building a long-term multi-billion dollar company. In the case of Frank, he has, I think I shot to a $10 billion, you know, analytics data warehousing data management company on the back of that platform, because he's eyeing the market that, not just Teradata occupies today, but now Oracle occupies or other databases, right? So his tam as it grows bigger, you're going to have some of these things, but that market's big. I think same with Palo Alto. I mean Datadog's another company, 75% growth. >> Yeah. >> At 20% margins, like almost rule of 95. >> Amazing. >> When they're going after, not just the observability market, they're eating up the sim market, security analytics, the APM market. So I think, you know, that's, you look at these case studies of companies who are going from point product to platforms and are steadily able to grow into new tams. You know, to me that's very inspiring. >> I get it. >> Sanjay: That's what I seek to do at our com. >> I get that it's a marathon, but you know, when you're at VMware, weren't you looking at the stock price every day just out of curiosity? I mean listen, you weren't micromanaging it. >> You do, but at the end of the day, and you certainly look at the days of earnings and so on so forth. >> Yeah. >> Because you want to create shareholder value. >> Yeah. >> I'm not saying that you should not but I think in obsession with that, you know, in a short term, >> Going to kill ya. >> Makes you, you know, sort of myopically focused on what may not be the right thing in the long term. Now in the long arc of time, if you're not creating shareholder value... Look at what happened to Steve Bomber. You needed Satya to come in to change things and he's created a lot of value. >> Dave: Yeah, big time. >> But I think in the short term, my comments were really on the quarter to quarter, but over a four a 12 quarter, if companies are growing and creating profitable growth, they're going to get the valuation they deserve. >> Dave: Yeah. >> Do you the... I want to ask you about something Arvind Krishna said in the previous IBM earnings call, that IT is deflationary and therefore it is resistant to the macroeconomic headwinds. So IT spending should actually thrive in a deflation, in a adverse economic climate. Do you think that's true? >> Not all forms of IT. I pay very close attention to surveys from, whether it's the industry analysts or the Morgan Stanleys, or Goldman Sachs. The financial analysts. And I think there's a gluc in certain sectors that will get pulled back. Traditional view is when the economies are growing people spend on the top line, front office stuff, sales, marketing. If you go and look at just the cloud 100 companies, which are the hottest private companies, and maybe with the public market companies, there's way too many companies focused on sales and marketing. Way too many. I think during a downsizing and recession, that's going to probably shrink some, because they were all built for the 2009 to 2021 era, where it was all about the top line. Okay, maybe there's now a proposition for companies who are focused on cost optimization, supply chain visibility. Security's been intangible, that I think is going to continue to an investment. So I tell, listen, if you are a tech investor or if you're an operator, pay attention to CIO priorities. And right now, in our business at Cohesity, part of the reason we've embraced things like ransomware protection, there is a big focus on security. And you know, by intelligently being a management and a security company around data, I do believe we'll continue to be extremely relevant to CIO budgets. There's a ransomware, 20 ransomware attempts every second. So things of that kind make you relevant in a bank. You have to stay relevant to a buying pattern or else you lose momentum. >> But I think what's happening now is actually IT spending's pretty good. I mean, I track this stuff pretty closely. It's just that expectations were so high and now you're seeing earnings estimates come down and so, okay, and then you, yeah, you've got the, you know the inflationary factors and your discounted cash flows but the market's actually pretty good. >> Yeah. >> You know, relative to other downturns that if this is not a... We're not actually not in a downturn. >> Yeah. >> Not yet anyway. It may be. >> There's a valuation there. >> You have to prepare. >> Not sales. >> Yeah, that's right. >> When I was on CNBC, I said "listen, it's a little bit like that story of Joseph. Seven years of feast, seven years of famine." You have to prepare for potentially your worst. And if it's not the worst, you're in good shape. So will it be a recession 2023? Maybe. You know, high interest rates, inflation, war in Russia, Ukraine, maybe things do get bad. But if you belt tightening, if you're focused in operational excellence, if it's not a recession, you're pleasantly surprised. If it is one, you're prepared for it. >> All right. I'm going to put you in the spot and ask you for predictions. Expert analysis on the World Cup. What do you think? Give us the breakdown. (group laughs) >> As my... I wish India was in the World Cup, but you can't get enough Indians at all to play soccer well enough, but we're not, >> You play cricket, though. >> I'm a US man first. I would love to see one of Brazil, or Argentina. And as a Messi person, I don't know if you'll get that, but it would be really special for Messi to lead, to end his career like Maradonna winning a World Cup. I don't know if that'll happen. I'm probably going to go one of the Latin American countries, if the US doesn't make it far enough. But first loyalty to the US team, and then after one of the Latin American countries. >> And you think one of the Latin American countries is best bet to win or? >> I don't know. It's hard to tell. They're all... What happens now at this stage >> So close, right? >> is anybody could win. >> Yeah. You just have lots of shots of gold. I'm a big soccer fan. It could, I mean, I don't know if the US is favored to win, but if they get far enough, you get to the finals, anybody could win. >> I think they get Netherlands next, right? >> That's tough. >> Really tough. >> But... The European teams are good too, but I would like to see US go far enough, and then I'd like to see Latin America with team one of Argentina, or Brazil. That's my prediction. >> I know you're a big Cricket fan. Are you able to follow Cricket the way you like? >> At god unearthly times the night because they're in Australia, right? >> Oh yeah. >> Yeah. >> I watched the T-20 World Cup, select games of it. Yeah, you know, I'm not rapidly following every single game but the World Cup games, I catch you. >> Yeah, it's good. >> It's good. I mean, I love every sport. American football, soccer. >> That's great. >> You get into basketball now, I mean, I hope the Warriors come back strong. Hey, how about the Warriors Celtics? What do we think? We do it again? >> Well- >> This year. >> I'll tell you what- >> As a Boston Celtics- >> I would love that. I actually still, I have to pay off some folks from Palo Alto office with some bets still. We are seeing unprecedented NBA performance this year. >> Yeah. >> It's amazing. You look at the stats, it's like nothing. I know it's early. Like nothing we've ever seen before. So it's exciting. >> Well, always a pleasure talking to you guys. >> Great to have you on. >> Thanks for having me. >> Thank you. Love the expert analysis. >> Sanjay Poonen. Dave Vellante. Keep it right there. re:Invent 2022, day four. We're winding up in Las Vegas. We'll be right back. You're watching theCUBE, the leader in enterprise and emerging tech coverage. (lighthearted soft music)

>>Hello everyone and welcome back to Las Vegas. I've got my jazz hands because I am very jazzed to be here at AWS Reinvent Live from the show floor all week. My name is Savannah Peterson, joined with the infamous John Farer. John, how you feeling >>After feeling great? Love? What's going on here? The vibe is a cloud, cloud native. Lot of security conversation, data, stuff we love Cloud Native, >>M I >>A L, I mean big news. Security, security, data lake. I mean, who would've thought Amazon have a security data lake? You know, e k s, I mean >>You might have with that tweet you had out >>Inside outside the containers. Reminds me, it feels like coan here. >>It honestly, and there's a lot of overlap and it's interesting that you mention CubeCon because we talked to the next company when we were in Detroit just a couple weeks ago. Teleport E is the CEO and founder F Welcome to the show. How you doing? >>I'm doing well. Thank you for having me today. >>We feel very lucky to have you. We hosted Drew who works on the product marketing side of Teleport. Yeah, we got to talk caddies and golf last time on the show. We'll talk about some of your hobbies a little bit later, but just in case someone's tuning in, unfamiliar with Teleport, you're all about identity. Give us a little bit of a pitch, >>Little bit of our pitch. Teleport is the first identity native infrastructure access platform. It's used by engineers and it's used by machines. So notice that I used very specific choice of words first identity native, what does it mean? Identity native? It consists of three things and we're writing a book about those, but I'll let you know. Stay >>Tuned on that front. >>Exactly, yes, but I can talk about 'em today. So the first component of identity, native access is moving away from secrets towards true identity. The secrets, I mean things like passwords, private keys, browser cookies, session tokens, API keys, all of these things is secrets and they make you vulnerable. The point is, as you scale, it's absolutely impossible to protect all of the seekers because they keep growing and multiplying. So the probability of you getting hacked over time is high. So you need to get rid of secrets altogether that that's the first thing that we do. We use something called True Identity. It's a combination of your biometrics as well as identity of your machines. That's tpms, HSMs, Ubikes and so on, so forth. >>Go >>Ahead. The second component is Zero Trust. Like Teleport is built to not trust the network. So every resource inside of your data center automatically gets configured as if there is no perimeter it, it's as safe as it was on the public network. So that's the second thing. Don't trust the network. And the third one is that we keep access policy in one place. So Kubernetes clusters, databases on stage, rdp, all of these protocols, the access policy will be in one place. That's identity. Okay, >>So I'm, I'm a hacker. Pretend I'm a hacker. >>Easy. That sounds, >>That sounds really good to me. Yeah, I'm supposed to tell 'em you're hacker. Okay. I can go to one place and hack that. >>I get this question a lot. The thing is, you want centralization when it comes to security, think about your house being your AWS account. Okay? Everything inside your furniture, your valuable, like you'll watch collection, like that's your data, that's your servers, paper clusters, so and so forth. Right Now I have a choice and your house is in a really bad neighborhood. Okay, that's the bad internet. Do you wanna have 20 different doors or do you want to have one? But like amazing one, extremely secure, very modern. So it's very easy for you to actually maintain it and enforce policy. So the answer is, oh, you probably need to have >>One. And so you're designing security identity from a perspective of what's best for the security posture. Exactly. Sounds like, okay, so now that's not against the conventional wisdom of the perimeter's dead, the cloud's everywhere. So in a way kind of brings perimeter concepts into the posture because you know, the old model of the firewall, the moat >>It Yeah. Just doesn't scale. >>It doesn't scale. You guys bring the different solution. How do you fit into the new perimeters dead cloud paradigm? >>So the, the way it works that if you are, if you are using Teleport to access your infrastructure, let's just use for example, like a server access perspective. Like that machine that you're accessing doesn't listen on a network if it runs in Teleport. So instead Teleport creates this trusted outbound tunnels to the proxy. So essentially you are managing devices using out going connection. It's kind of like how your phone runs. Yeah. Like your phone is actually ultimate, it's like a teleport like, like I It's >>Like teleporting into your environment. >>Yeah, well play >>Journal. But >>Think about actually like one example of an amazing company that's true Zero trust that we're all familiar with would be Apple. Because every time you get a new iOS on your phone, the how is it different from Apple running massive software deployment into enormous cloud with billions of servers sprinkle all over the world without perimeter. How is it possible That's exactly the kind of technology that Teleports >>Gives you. I'm glad you clarified. I really wanted to get that out on the table. Cuz Savannah, this is, this is the paradigm shift around what an environment is Exactly. Did the Apple example, so, okay, tell 'em about customer traction. Are people like getting it right away? Are their teams ready? Are they go, oh my god this is >>Great. Pretty much you see we kinda lucky like in a, in a, like in this business and I'm walking around looking at all these successful startups, like every single one of them has a story about launching the right thing at just the right like moment. Like in technology, like the window to launch something is extremely short. Like months. I'm literally talking months. So we built Teleport started to work on it in like 2015. It was internal project, I believe it or not, also a famous example. It's really popular like internal project, put it on GitHub and it sat there relatively unnoticed for a while and then it just like took off around 2000 >>Because people start to feel the pain. They needed it. Exactly, >>Exactly. >>Yeah. The timing. Well and And what a great way to figure out when the timing is right? When you do something like that, put it on GitHub. Yeah. >>People >>Tell you what's up >>Yeah's Like a basketball player who can just like be suspended in the air over the hoop for like half the game and then finally his score and wins >>The game. Or video gamer who's lagged, everyone else is lagging and they got the latency thing. Exactly. Thing air. Okay. Talk about the engineering side. Cause I, I like this at co con, you mentioned it at the opening of this segment that you guys are for engineers, not it >>Business people. That's right. >>Explain that. Interesting. This is super important. Explain why and why that's resonating. >>So there is this ongoing shift on more and more responsibilities going to engineers. Like remember back in the day before we even had clouds, we had people actually racking servers, sticking cables into them, cutting their fingers, like trying to get 'em in. So those were not engineers, they were different teams. Yeah. But then you had system administrators who would maintain these machines for you. Now all of these things are done with code. And when these things are done with code and with APIs, that shifts to engineers. That is what Teleport does with policy. So if you want to have a set of rules that govern who or what and when under what circumstances can access what data like on Kubernetes, on databases, on, on servers wouldn't be nice to use code for it. So then you could use like a version control and you can keep track of changes. That's what teleport enables. Traditionally it preferred more kind of clicky graphical things like clicking buttons. And so it's just a different world, different way of doing it. So essentially if you want security as code, that's what Teleport provides and naturally this language resonates with this persona. >>Love that. Security is coding. It's >>A great term. Yeah. Love it. I wanna, I wanna, >>Okay. We coined it, someone else uses it on the show. >>We borrow it >>To use credit. When did you, when did you coin that? Just now? >>No, >>I think I coined it before >>You wanted it to be a scoop. I love that. >>I wish I had this story when I, I was like a, like a poor little 14 year old kid was dreaming about security code but >>Well Dave Ante will testify that I coined data as code before anyone else but it got 10 years ago. You >>Didn't hear it this morning. Jimmy actually brought it back up. Aws, you're about startups and he's >>Whoever came up with lisp programming language that had this concept that data and code are exact same thing, >>Right? We could debate nerd lexicon all day on the cube. In fact, that could even be a segment first >>Of we do. First of all, the fact that Lisp came up on the cube is actually a milestone because Lisp is a very popular language for object-oriented >>Grandfather of everything. >>Yes, yes, grandfather. Good, good. Good catch there. Yeah, well done. >>All right. I'm gonna bring us back. I wanna ask you a question >>Talking about nerd this LIS is really >>No, I think it's great. You know how nerdy we can get here though. I mean we can just hang out in the weeds the whole time. All right. I wanna ask you a question that I asked Drew when we were in Detroit just because I think for some folks and especially the audience, they may not have as distinctive a definition as y'all do. How do you define identity? >>Oh, that's a great question. So identity as a term was, it was always used for security purposes. But most people probably use identity in the context of single signon sso. Meaning that if your company uses identity for access, which instead of having each application have an account for you, like a data entry with your first name, last name emails and your role. Yeah. You instead have a central database, let's say Okta or something like that. Yep. And then you, you use that to access everything that's kind of identity based access because there is a single source of identity. What we say is that we, that needs to be extended because it it no longer enough because that identity can be stolen. So if someone gets access to your Okta account using your credentials, then they can become you. So in order for identity to be attached to you and become your true identity, you have to rely on physical world objects. That's biometrics your facial fingerprint, like your facial print, your fingerprints as well as biometric of your machine. Like your laptops have PPM modules on it. They're absolutely unique. They cannot be cloned stolen. So that is your identity as well. So if you combine whatever is in Octa with the biker chip in this laptop and with your finger that collectively is your true identity, which cannot be stolen. So it's can't be hacked. >>And someone can take my finger like they did in the movies. >>So they would have to do that. And they would also have to They'd >>Steal your match. Exactly, exactly. Yeah. And they'd have to have your eyes >>And they have to, and you have >>Whatever the figure that far, they meant what >>They want. So that is what Drew identity is from telecom and >>Biometric. I mean it's, we're so there right now it's, it's really not an issue. It's only getting faster and better to >>Market. There is one important thing I said earlier that I want to go back to that I said that teleport is not just for engineers, it's also for machines. Cuz machines they also need the identity. So when we talk about access silos and that there are many different doors into your apartment, there are many different ways to access your data. So on the infrastructure side, machines are doing more and more. So we are offloading more and more tasks to them. That's a really good, what do machines use to access each other? Biome? They use API keys, they use private keys, they use basically passwords. Yeah. Like they're secrets and we already know that that's bad, right? Yeah. So how do you extend biometrics to machines? So this is why AWS offers cloud HSM service. HSM is secure hardware security module. That's a unique private key for the machine that is not accessible by anyone. And Teleport uses that to give identities to machines. Does do >>Customers have to enable that themselves or they have that part of a Amazon, the that >>Special. So it's available on aws. It's available actually in good old, like old bare metal machines that have HSMs on them on the motherboard. And it's optional by the way Teleport can work even if you don't have that capability. But the point is that we tried, you >>Have a biometric equivalent for the machines with >>Take advantage of it. Yeah. It's a hardware thing that you have to have and we all have it. Amazon sells it. AWS sells it to us. Yeah. And Teleport allows you to leverage that to enhance security of the infrastructure. >>So that classic hardware software play on that we're always talking about here on the cube. It's all, it's all important. I think this is really fascinating though. So I had an on the way to the show, I just enrolled in Clear and I had used a different email. I enrolled for the second time and my eyes wouldn't let me have two accounts. And this was the first time I had tried to sort of hack my own digital identity. And the girl, I think she was humoring me that was, was kindly helping me, the clear employee. But I think she could tell I was trying to mess with it and I wanted to see what would happen. I wanted to see if I could have two different accounts linked to my biometric data and I couldn't it, it picked it up right away. >>That's your true >>Identity. Yeah, my true identity. So, and forgive me cuz this is kind of just a personal question. It might be a little bit finger finger to the wind, but how, just how much more secure if you could, if you could give us a, a rating or a percentage or a a number. How much more secure is leveraging biometric data for identity than the secrets we've been using historically? >>Look, I could, I played this game with you and I can answer like infinitely more secure, right? Like but you know how security works that it all depends on implementation. So let's say you, you can deploy teleport, you can put us on your infrastructure, but if you're running, let's say like a compromised old copy of WordPress that has vulnerability, you're gonna get a hack through that angle. But >>Happens happens to my personal website all the time. You just touched Yeah, >>But the fact is that we, I I don't see how your credentials will be stolen in this system simply because your TPM on your laptop and your fingerprint, they cannot be downloaded. They like a lot of people actually ask us a slightly different question. It's almost the opposite of it. Like how can I trust you with my biometrics? When I use my fingerprint? That's my information. I don't want the company I work at to get my fingerprint people. I think it's a legit question to ask. >>Yeah. And it's >>What you, the answer to that question is your fingerprint doesn't really leave your laptop teleport doesn't see your fingerprint. What happens is when your fingerprint gets validated, it's it's your laptop is matching what's on the tpm. Basically Apple does it and then Apple simply tells teleport, yep that's F or whoever. And that's what we are really using. So when you are using this form authentication, you're not sharing your biometric with the company you work at. >>It's a machine to human confirmation first and >>Then it's it. It's basically you and the laptop agreeing that my fingerprint matches your TPM and if your laptop agrees, it's basically hardware does validation. So, and teleport simply gets that signal. >>So Ed, my final question for you is here at the show coupon, great conversations there for your company. What's your conversations here like at reinvent? Are you meeting with Amazon people, customers? What are some of the conversations? Because this is a much broader, I mean it's still technical. Yep. But you know, a lot of business kind of discussions, architectural refactoring of organizations. What are some of the things that you're talking about here with Telepo? What are, >>So I will mention maybe two trends I observed. The first one is not even security related. It's basically how like as a cloud becomes more mature, people now actually at different organizations develop their own internal ways of doing cloud properly. And they're not the same. Because when cloud was earlier, like there were this like best practices that everyone was trying to follow and there was like, there was just a maybe lack of expertise in the world and and now finding that different organizations just do things completely different. Like one, like for example, yeah, like some companies love having handful, ideally just one enormous Kubernetes cluster with a bunch of applications on it. And the other companies, they create Kubernetes clusters for different workloads and it's just like all over the map and both of them are believed that they're doing it properly. >>Great example of bringing in, that's Kubernetes with the complexity. And >>That's kind of one trend I'm noticing. And the second one is security related. Is that everyone is struggling with the access silos is that ideally every organization is dreaming about a day, but they have like one place which is which with great user experience that simply spells out this is what policy is to access this particular data. And it gets a automatically enforced by every single cloud provider, but every single application, but every single protocol, but every single resource. But we don't have that unfortunately Teleport is slowly becoming that, of course. Excuse me for plugging >>TelePro. No, no worries. >>But it is this ongoing theme that everyone is can't wait to have that single source of truth for accessing their data. >>The second person to say single source of truth on this stage in the last 24 >>Hours or nerds will love that. I >>Know I feel well, but it's all, it all comes back to that. I keep using this tab analogy, but we all want everything in one place. We don't wanna, we don't wanna have to be going all over the place and to look for >>Both. Because if it's and everything else places, it means that different teams are responsible for it. Yeah. So it becomes this kind of internal information silo as well. So you not even, >>And the risks and liabilities there, depending on who's overseeing everything. That's awesome. Right? So we have a new challenge on the cube specific to this show thing of this as your 30 minute or 30 minute that would be bold. 32nd sizzle reel, Instagram highlight. What is your hot take? Most important thing, biggest theme of the show this year. >>This year. Okay, so here's my thing. Like I want cloud to become something I want it to be. And every time I come here and I'm like, are we closer? Are we closer? So here's what I want. I want all cloud providers collectively to kind of merge. So then when we use them, it feels like we are programming one giant machine. Kind of like in the matrix, right? The movie. So like I want cloud to feel like a computer, like to have this almost intimate experience you have with your laptop. Like you can like, like do this and the laptop like performs the instructions. So, and it feels to me that we are getting closer. So like walking around here and seeing how everything works now, like on the single signon on from a security perspective, there is so that consolidation is finally happening. So it's >>The software mainframe we used to call it back in 2010. >>Yeah, yeah. Just kind of planetary scale thing. Yes. It's not the Zuckerberg that who's building metaverse, it's people here at reinvent. >>Unlimited resource for developers. Just call in. Yeah, yeah. Give me some resource, spin me up some, some compute. >>I would like alter that slightly. I would just basically go and do this and you shouldn't even worry about how it gets done. Just put instructions into this planetary mainframe and mainframe will go and figure this out. Okay. >>We gotta take blue or blue or red pill. I >>Know. I was just gonna say y'all, we are this, this, this, this segment is lit. >>We got made tricks. We got brilliant. We didn't get super cloud in here but we, we can weave that in. We got >>List. We just said it. So >>We got lisp. Oh great con, great conversation. Cloud native. >>Outstanding conversation. And thank you so much for being here. We love having teleport on the show. Obviously we hope to see you back again soon and and Drew as well. And thank all of you for tuning in this afternoon. Live from Las Vegas, Nevada, where we are hanging out at AWS Reinvent with John Furrier. I'm Savannah Peterson. This is the Cube. We are the source for high tech coverage.

from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and ETR this is breaking analysis with Dave vellante the ascendancy of AWS under the leadership of Andy jassy was marked by a tsunami of data and corresponding cloud services to leverage that data now those Services they mainly came in the form of Primitives I.E basic building blocks that were used by developers to create more sophisticated capabilities AWS in the 2020s being led by CEO Adam solipski will be marked by four high-level Trends in our opinion one A Rush of data that will dwarf anything we've previously seen two a doubling or even tripling down on the basic elements of cloud compute storage database security Etc three a greater emphasis on end-to-end integration of AWS services to simplify and accelerate customer adoption of cloud and four significantly deeper business integration of cloud Beyond it as an underlying element of organizational operations hello and welcome to this week's wikibon Cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis we extract and analyze nuggets from John furrier's annual sit-down with the CEO of AWS we'll share data from ETR and other sources to set the context for the market and competition in cloud and we'll give you our glimpse of what to expect at re invent in 2022. now before we get into the core of our analysis Alibaba has announced earnings they always announced after the big three you know a month later and we've updated our Q3 slash November hyperscale Computing forecast for the year as seen here and we're going to spend a lot of time on this as most of you have seen the bulk of it already but suffice to say alibaba's cloud business is hitting that same macro Trend that we're seeing across the board but a more substantial slowdown than we expected and more substantial than its peers they're facing China headwinds they've been restructuring its Cloud business and it's led to significantly slower growth uh in in the you know low double digits as opposed to where we had it at 15 this puts our year-end estimates for 2022 Revenue at 161 billion still a healthy 34 growth with AWS surpassing 80 billion in 2022 Revenue now on a related note one of the big themes in Cloud that we've been reporting on is how customers are optimizing their Cloud spend it's a technique that they use and when the economy looks a little shaky and here's a graphic that we pulled from aws's website which shows the various pricing plans at a high level as you know they're much more granular than that and more sophisticated but Simplicity we'll just keep it here basically there are four levels first one here is on demand I.E pay by the drink now we're going to jump down to what we've labeled as number two spot instances that's like the right place at the right time I can use that extra capacity in the moment the third is reserved instances or RIS where I pay up front to get a discount and the fourth is sort of optimized savings plans where customers commit to a one or three year term and for a better price now you'll notice we labeled the choices in a different order than AWS presented them on its website and that's because we believe that the order that we chose is the natural progression for customers this started on demand they maybe experiment with spot instances they move to reserve instances when the cloud bill becomes too onerous and if you're large enough you lock in for one or three years okay the interesting thing is the order in which AWS presents them we believe that on-demand accounts for the majority of AWS customer spending now if you think about it those on-demand customers they're also at risk customers yeah sure there's some switching costs like egress and learning curve but many customers they have multiple clouds and they've got experience and so they're kind of already up to a learning curve and if you're not married to AWS with a longer term commitment there's less friction to switch now AWS here presents the most attractive plan from a financial perspective second after on demand and it's also the plan that makes the greatest commitment from a lock-in standpoint now In fairness to AWS it's also true that there is a trend towards subscription-based pricing and we have some data on that this chart is from an ETR drill down survey the end is 300. pay attention to the bars on the right the left side is sort of busy but the pink is subscription and you can see the trend upward the light blue is consumption based or on demand based pricing and you can see there's a steady Trend toward subscription now we'll dig into this in a later episode of Breaking analysis but we'll share with you a little some tidbits with the data that ETR provides you can select which segment is and pass or you can go up the stack Etc but so when you choose is and paths 44 of customers either prefer or are required to use on-demand pricing whereas around 40 percent of customers say they either prefer or are required to use subscription pricing again that's for is so now the further mu you move up the stack the more prominent subscription pricing becomes often with sixty percent or more for the software-based offerings that require or prefer subscription and interestingly cyber security tracks along with software at around 60 percent that that prefer subscription it's likely because as with software you're not shutting down your cyber protection on demand all right let's get into the expectations for reinvent and we're going to start with an observation in data in this 2018 book seeing digital author David michella made the point that whereas most companies apply data on the periphery of their business kind of as an add-on function successful data companies like Google and Amazon and Facebook have placed data at the core of their operations they've operationalized data and they apply machine intelligence to that foundational element why is this the fact is it's not easy to do what the internet Giants have done very very sophisticated engineering and and and cultural discipline and this brings us to reinvent 2022 in the future of cloud machine learning and AI will increasingly be infused into applications we believe the data stack and the application stack are coming together as organizations build data apps and data products data expertise is moving from the domain of Highly specialized individuals to Everyday business people and we are just at the cusp of this trend this will in our view be a massive theme of not only re invent 22 but of cloud in the 2020s the vision of data mesh We Believe jamachtagani's principles will be realized in this decade now what we'd like to do now is share with you a glimpse of the thinking of Adam solipsky from his sit down with John Furrier each year John has a one-on-one conversation with the CEO of AWS AWS he's been doing this for years and the outcome is a better understanding of the directional thinking of the leader of the number one Cloud platform so we're now going to share some direct quotes I'm going to run through them with some commentary and then bring in some ETR data to analyze the market implications here we go this is from solipsky quote I.T in general and data are moving from departments into becoming intrinsic parts of how businesses function okay we're talking here about deeper business integration let's go on to the next one quote in time we'll stop talking about people who have the word analyst we inserted data he meant data data analyst in their title rather will have hundreds of millions of people who analyze data as part of their day-to-day job most of whom will not have the word analyst anywhere in their title we're talking about graphic designers and pizza shop owners and product managers and data scientists as well he threw that in I'm going to come back to that very interesting so he's talking about here about democratizing data operationalizing data next quote customers need to be able to take an end-to-end integrated view of their entire data Journey from ingestion to storage to harmonizing the data to being able to query it doing business Intelligence and human-based Analysis and being able to collaborate and share data and we've been putting together we being Amazon together a broad Suite of tools from database to analytics to business intelligence to help customers with that and this last statement it's true Amazon has a lot of tools and you know they're beginning to become more and more integrated but again under jassy there was not a lot of emphasis on that end-to-end integrated view we believe it's clear from these statements that solipsky's customer interactions are leading him to underscore that the time has come for this capability okay continuing quote if you have data in one place you shouldn't have to move it every time you want to analyze that data couldn't agree more it would be much better if you could leave that data in place avoid all the ETL which has become a nasty three-letter word more and more we're building capabilities where you can query that data in place end quote okay this we see a lot in the marketplace Oracle with mySQL Heatwave the entire Trend toward converge database snowflake [ __ ] extending their platforms into transaction and analytics respectively and so forth a lot of the partners are are doing things as well in that vein let's go into the next quote the other phenomenon is infusing machine learning into all those capabilities yes the comments from the michelleographic come into play here infusing Ai and machine intelligence everywhere next one quote it's not a data Cloud it's not a separate Cloud it's a series of broad but integrated capabilities to help you manage the end-to-end life cycle of your data there you go we AWS are the cloud we're going to come back to that in a moment as well next set of comments around data very interesting here quote data governance is a huge issue really what customers need is to find the right balance of their organization between access to data and control and if you provide too much access then you're nervous that your data is going to end up in places that it shouldn't shouldn't be viewed by people who shouldn't be viewing it and you feel like you lack security around that data and by the way what happens then is people overreact and they lock it down so that almost nobody can see it it's those handcuffs there's data and asset are reliability we've talked about that for years okay very well put by solipsky but this is a gap in our in our view within AWS today and we're we're hoping that they close it at reinvent it's not easy to share data in a safe way within AWS today outside of your organization so we're going to look for that at re invent 2022. now all this leads to the following statement by solipsky quote data clean room is a really interesting area and I think there's a lot of different Industries in which clean rooms are applicable I think that clean rooms are an interesting way of enabling multiple parties to share and collaborate on the data while completely respecting each party's rights and their privacy mandate okay again this is a gap currently within AWS today in our view and we know snowflake is well down this path and databricks with Delta sharing is also on this curve so AWS has to address this and demonstrate this end-to-end data integration and the ability to safely share data in our view now let's bring in some ETR spending data to put some context around these comments with reference points in the form of AWS itself and its competitors and partners here's a chart from ETR that shows Net score or spending momentum on the x-axis an overlap or pervasiveness in the survey um sorry let me go back up the net scores on the y-axis and overlap or pervasiveness in the survey is on the x-axis so spending momentum by pervasiveness okay or should have share within the data set the table that's inserted there with the Reds and the greens that informs us to how the dots are positioned so it's Net score and then the shared ends are how the plots are determined now we've filtered the data on the three big data segments analytics database and machine learning slash Ai and we've only selected one company with fewer than 100 ends in the survey and that's databricks you'll see why in a moment the red dotted line indicates highly elevated customer spend at 40 percent now as usual snowflake outperforms all players on the y-axis with a Net score of 63 percent off the charts all three big U.S cloud players are above that line with Microsoft and AWS dominating the x-axis so very impressive that they have such spending momentum and they're so large and you see a number of other emerging data players like rafana and datadog mongodbs there in the mix and then more established players data players like Splunk and Tableau now you got Cisco who's gonna you know it's a it's a it's a adjacent to their core networking business but they're definitely into you know the analytics business then the really established players in data like Informatica IBM and Oracle all with strong presence but you'll notice in the red from the momentum standpoint now what you're going to see in a moment is we put red highlights around databricks Snowflake and AWS why let's bring that back up and we'll explain so there's no way let's bring that back up Alex if you would there's no way AWS is going to hit the brakes on innovating at the base service level what we call Primitives earlier solipsky told Furrier as much in their sit down that AWS will serve the technical user and data science Community the traditional domain of data bricks and at the same time address the end-to-end integration data sharing and business line requirements that snowflake is positioned to serve now people often ask Snowflake and databricks how will you compete with the likes of AWS and we know the answer focus on data exclusively they have their multi-cloud plays perhaps the more interesting question is how will AWS compete with the likes of Specialists like Snowflake and data bricks and the answer is depicted here in this chart AWS is going to serve both the technical and developer communities and the data science audience and through end-to-end Integrations and future services that simplify the data Journey they're going to serve the business lines as well but the Nuance is in all the other dots in the hundreds or hundreds of thousands that are not shown here and that's the AWS ecosystem you can see AWS has earned the status of the number one Cloud platform that everyone wants to partner with as they say it has over a hundred thousand partners and that ecosystem combined with these capabilities that we're discussing well perhaps behind in areas like data sharing and integrated governance can wildly succeed by offering the capabilities and leveraging its ecosystem now for their part the snowflakes of the world have to stay focused on the mission build the best products possible and develop their own ecosystems to compete and attract the Mind share of both developers and business users and that's why it's so interesting to hear solipski basically say it's not a separate Cloud it's a set of integrated Services well snowflake is in our view building a super cloud on top of AWS Azure and Google when great products meet great sales and marketing good things can happen so this will be really fun to watch what AWS announces in this area at re invent all right one other topic that solipsky talked about was the correlation between serverless and container adoption and you know I don't know if this gets into there certainly their hybrid place maybe it starts to get into their multi-cloud we'll see but we have some data on this so again we're talking about the correlation between serverless and container adoption but before we get into that let's go back to 2017 and listen to what Andy jassy said on the cube about serverless play the clip very very earliest days of AWS Jeff used to say a lot if I were starting Amazon today I'd have built it on top of AWS we didn't have all the capability and all the functionality at that very moment but he knew what was coming and he saw what people were still able to accomplish even with where the services were at that point I think the same thing is true here with Lambda which is I think if Amazon were starting today it's a given they would build it on the cloud and I think we with a lot of the applications that comprise Amazon's consumer business we would build those on on our serverless capabilities now we still have plenty of capabilities and features and functionality we need to add to to Lambda and our various serverless services so that may not be true from the get-go right now but I think if you look at the hundreds of thousands of customers who are building on top of Lambda and lots of real applications you know finra has built a good chunk of their market watch application on top of Lambda and Thompson Reuters has built you know one of their key analytics apps like people are building real serious things on top of Lambda and the pace of iteration you'll see there will increase as well and I really believe that to be true over the next year or two so years ago when Jesse gave a road map that serverless was going to be a key developer platform going forward and so lipsky referenced the correlation between serverless and containers in the Furrier sit down so we wanted to test that within the ETR data set now here's a screen grab of The View across 1300 respondents from the October ETR survey and what we've done here is we've isolated on the cloud computing segment okay so you can see right there cloud computing segment now we've taken the functions from Google AWS Lambda and Microsoft Azure functions all the serverless offerings and we've got Net score on the vertical axis we've got presence in the data set oh by the way 440 by the way is highly elevated remember that and then we've got on the horizontal axis we have the presence in the data center overlap okay that's relative to each other so remember 40 all these guys are above that 40 mark okay so you see that now what we're going to do this is just for serverless and what we're going to do is we're going to turn on containers to see the correlation and see what happens so watch what happens when we click on container boom everything moves to the right you can see all three move to the right Google drops a little bit but all the others now the the filtered end drops as well so you don't have as many people that are aggressively leaning into both but all three move to the right so watch again containers off and then containers on containers off containers on so you can see a really major correlation between containers and serverless okay so to get a better understanding of what that means I call my friend and former Cube co-host Stu miniman what he said was people generally used to think of VMS containers and serverless as distinctly different architectures but the lines are beginning to blur serverless makes things simpler for developers who don't want to worry about underlying infrastructure as solipsky and the data from ETR indicate serverless and containers are coming together but as Stu and I discussed there's a spectrum where on the left you have kind of native Cloud VMS in the middle you got AWS fargate and in the rightmost anchor is Lambda AWS Lambda now traditionally in the cloud if you wanted to use containers developers would have to build a container image they have to select and deploy the ec2 images that they or instances that they wanted to use they have to allocate a certain amount of memory and then fence off the apps in a virtual machine and then run the ec2 instances against the apps and then pay for all those ec2 resources now with AWS fargate you can run containerized apps with less infrastructure management but you still have some you know things that you can you can you can do with the with the infrastructure so with fargate what you do is you'd build the container images then you'd allocate your memory and compute resources then run the app and pay for the resources only when they're used so fargate lets you control the runtime environment while at the same time simplifying the infrastructure management you gotta you don't have to worry about isolating the app and other stuff like choosing server types and patching AWS does all that for you then there's Lambda with Lambda you don't have to worry about any of the underlying server infrastructure you're just running code AS functions so the developer spends their time worrying about the applications and the functions that you're calling the point is there's a movement and we saw in the data towards simplifying the development environment and allowing the cloud vendor AWS in this case to do more of the underlying management now some folks will still want to turn knobs and dials but increasingly we're going to see more higher level service adoption now re invent is always a fire hose of content so let's do a rapid rundown of what to expect we talked about operate optimizing data and the organization we talked about Cloud optimization there'll be a lot of talk on the show floor about best practices and customer sharing data solipsky is leading AWS into the next phase of growth and that means moving beyond I.T transformation into deeper business integration and organizational transformation not just digital transformation organizational transformation so he's leading a multi-vector strategy serving the traditional peeps who want fine-grained access to core services so we'll see continued Innovation compute storage AI Etc and simplification through integration and horizontal apps further up to stack Amazon connect is an example that's often cited now as we've reported many times databricks is moving from its stronghold realm of data science into business intelligence and analytics where snowflake is coming from its data analytics stronghold and moving into the world of data science AWS is going down a path of snowflake meet data bricks with an underlying cloud is and pass layer that puts these three companies on a very interesting trajectory and you can expect AWS to go right after the data sharing opportunity and in doing so it will have to address data governance they go hand in hand okay price performance that is a topic that will never go away and it's something that we haven't mentioned today silicon it's a it's an area we've covered extensively on breaking analysis from Nitro to graviton to the AWS acquisition of Annapurna its secret weapon new special specialized capabilities like inferential and trainium we'd expect something more at re invent maybe new graviton instances David floyer our colleague said he's expecting at some point a complete system on a chip SOC from AWS and maybe an arm-based server to eventually include high-speed cxl connections to devices and memories all to address next-gen applications data intensive applications with low power requirements and lower cost overall now of course every year Swami gives his usual update on machine learning and AI building on Amazon's years of sagemaker innovation perhaps a focus on conversational AI or a better support for vision and maybe better integration across Amazon's portfolio of you know large language models uh neural networks generative AI really infusing AI everywhere of course security always high on the list that reinvent and and Amazon even has reinforce a conference dedicated to it uh to security now here we'd like to see more on supply chain security and perhaps how AWS can help there as well as tooling to make the cio's life easier but the key so far is AWS is much more partner friendly in the security space than say for instance Microsoft traditionally so firms like OCTA and crowdstrike in Palo Alto have plenty of room to play in the AWS ecosystem we'd expect of course to hear something about ESG it's an important topic and hopefully how not only AWS is helping the environment that's important but also how they help customers save money and drive inclusion and diversity again very important topics and finally come back to it reinvent is an ecosystem event it's the Super Bowl of tech events and the ecosystem will be out in full force every tech company on the planet will have a presence and the cube will be featuring many of the partners from the serial floor as well as AWS execs and of course our own independent analysis so you'll definitely want to tune into thecube.net and check out our re invent coverage we start Monday evening and then we go wall to wall through Thursday hopefully my voice will come back we have three sets at the show and our entire team will be there so please reach out or stop by and say hello all right we're going to leave it there for today many thanks to Stu miniman and David floyer for the input to today's episode of course John Furrier for extracting the signal from the noise and a sit down with Adam solipski thanks to Alex Meyerson who was on production and manages the podcast Ken schiffman as well Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight helped get the word out on social and of course in our newsletters Rob hoef is our editor-in-chief over at siliconangle does some great editing thank thanks to all of you remember all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen you can pop in the headphones go for a walk just search breaking analysis podcast I published each week on wikibon.com at siliconangle.com or you can email me at david.valante at siliconangle.com or DM me at di vallante or please comment on our LinkedIn posts and do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the Enterprise Tech business this is Dave vellante for the cube insights powered by ETR thanks for watching we'll see it reinvent or we'll see you next time on breaking analysis [Music]

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante snowflake they love the stock at 400 and hated at 165 that's the nature of the business i guess especially in this crazy cycle over the last two years of lockdowns free money exploding demand and now rising inflation and rates but with the fed providing some clarity on its actions the time has come to really dig into the fundamentals of companies and there's no tech company that's more fun to analyze than snowflake hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we look at the action of snowflake stock since its ipo why it's behaved the way it has how some sharp traders are looking at the stock and most importantly what customer demand looks like the stock has really provided some great theater since its ipo i know people who got in at 120 before the open and i know lots of people who kind of held their noses and bought the stock on day one at over 300 a day when it closed at around 240 that first day of trading snowflake hit 164 this week it's all-time low as a public company as my college roommate chip simonton a long time trader told me when great companies trade at all times time lows because of panic it's worth taking a shot he did now of course the stock could go lower there's geopolitical risk and the stock with a 64 billion market cap is expensive for a company that's forecast to do around 2 billion in product revenue this year and remember i don't recommend stocks you shouldn't take my advice and my comments you got to do your own research but i have lots of data and i have opinions and i'm willing to share that with you stocks like snowflake crowdstrike z-scaler octa and companies like this are highly volatile when markets are moving up they're going to move up faster than the mean when they're declining they're going to drop more severely and that's clearly what's happened to snowflake so with a company like this you when you see panic selling you'll also see panic buying sometimes like we we've seen with this name it went from 220 to 320 in a very short period earlier snowflake put in a short-term bottom this week and many traders feel the issue was oversold so they bought okay but not everyone felt this way and you can see this in the headlines snowflake hits low but cloud stocks rise and we're going to come back to that is it a buy don't buy the dip buy the dip and what snowflake investors can learn from microsoft and from the street.com snow stock is sliding on the back of ill-conceived guidance and to that i would say that conservative guidance these days is anything but ill-conceived now let's unpack all this a bit and to do so i reached out to ivana delevska who has been on this program before she's with spear invest a female-led etf that goes deep into understanding supply chains she came on breaking analysis and laid out her thesis to buy the dip on snowflake this is a while ago she told me currently spear still likes snowflake and has doubled its position let me share her analysis she called out two drivers for the downside interest rates you know rising of course in snowflakes guidance which my own publication called weak in that previous chart that i just showed you so let's dig into that a bit snowflake guided for product revenues of 67 year on year which was below buy side expectations but i believe within sell side consensus regardless the guide was nuanced and driven by snowflake's decision to pass along price efficiencies to customers from optimizing processor price performance predominantly from aws's graviton too this is going to hit snowflakes revenue a net of about a hundred million dollars this year but the timing's not precise because it's going to hit 165 million but they're going to make up 65 million in increased demand frank slootman on the earnings call made this very clear he said quote this is not philanthropy this stimulates demand classic slootman the point is spear and other bulls believe that this will result in a gain for snowflake over the medium term and we would agree price goes down roi gets better you throw more projects at snowflakes customers going to buy more snowflake and when that happens and it gives the company an advantage as they continue to build their moat it's a longer term bet on cloud and data which are good bets now some of this could also be competitive pressures there have been you know studies that are out there from competitors attacking snowflakes pricing and price performance and they make comparisons oracle's been pretty aggressive as have others but so far the company's customers continue to consume now at a very fast rate now on on this front what can we learn from microsoft that applies to snowflake that's the headline here from benzinga so the article quoted a wealth manager named josh brown talking about what happened to microsoft after the dot-com bubble burst and how they quadrupled earnings over the next decade and the stock went sideways suggesting the same thing could happen to snowflake now i'd like to make a couple of comments here first at the time microsoft was a 23 billion dollar company and it had a monopoly and was already highly profitable steve ballmer became the ceo of microsoft right after the dot-com bubble burst and he hugged onto windows for dear life and lived off of microsoft's pc software monopoly microsoft became an extremely profitable and remarkably uninteresting caretaker of a pc in on-prem software estate during balmer's tenure so i just don't see the comparison as relevant snowflake you know they're going to make struggle for other reasons but that one didn't really resonate with me what's interesting is this chart it poses the question do cloud and data markets behave differently it's a chart that shows aws growth rates over time and superimposes the revenue in the red in q1 2018 aws generated 5.4 billion dollars in revenue and that was growing at the time at nearly a 50 rate now that rate as you can see decelerated quite significantly as aws grew to a 50 billion dollar run rate company that down below where you see it bottoms now it makes sense right law of large numbers you can't keep growing that fast when you get that big well oops look what happened in 2021 aws's growth rate bottoms in the high 20s and then rockets back up to 40 this past quarter as aws surpasses a 70 billion dollar run rate so you have to ask is cloud different is data different is cloud data different or data cloud different let's put it in the snowflake parlance can cloud because of its consumption model and the speed of innovation and ecosystem depth and breadth enable snowflake to exhibit lots of variability in its growth rates versus a say progressive and somewhat linear decline as the company grows revenue which is what you would expect historically and part of the answer relates to its market size here's a chart we've shared before with some additions it's our version of snowflake's total available market they're tam which snowflake's version that that blue data cloud thing superimposed on the right it shows the various layers of market opportunity that we came up with that that snowflake and others we think have in front of them emerging from the disruption of legacy data lakes and data warehouses to what snowflake refers to as its data cloud we think about the data mesh concept and decentralized data architectures with domain ownership and data product and service builders as consistent with snowflake's data cloud vision where snowflake data stores are nodes they're just simply discoverable nodes on the mesh you could have you know data bricks data lakes you know s3 buckets on that mesh it doesn't matter they can be discovered they can be shared and of course they're governed in a federated model now in snowflake's model it's all inside the snowflake data cloud that's fine then you'll go to the out years it gets a little fuzzy you know from edge locations and ai inference it becomes massive and decision making occurs in real time where machines and machine data take over the world instead of you know clicks and keystrokes sounds out there but it's real and how exactly snowflake plays there at this point is unclear but one thing's for sure there'll be a lot of data and it's going to find its way into snowflake you know snowflake's not a real-time engine it's an analytical system it's moving into the realm of data science and you know we've talked about the need for you know semantic layer between those those two worlds of analytics and data science but expanding the scope further out we think that snowflake is a big role to play in this future and the future is massive okay check you got the big tam now as someone that looks at companies through a fundamentals prism you've got to look obviously at the markets in the tan which we just did but you also want to understand customers and it's not hard to find snowflake customers capital one disney micron alliance sainsbury sonos and hundreds of other companies i've talked to snowflake customers who have also been customers of oracle teradata ibm neteza vertica serious database practitioners and they tell me it's consistent soulflake is different they say it's simpler it's more agile it's less complicated to secure and it's disruptive to their traditional ways of doing data management now of course there are naysayers i've spoken to a number of analysts that feel snowflake is deficient in areas like workload management and course complex joins and it's too specialized in a world where we're seeing the convergence of analytics and transactional workloads our own david floyer believes that what oracle is doing with mysql heatwave is radically disruptive to many of the database architectures and blows away anything out there and he believes that snowflake and the likes of aws are going to have to respond now this the other criticism here is that snowflake is not architected for real-time inference where a lot of that edge activity is is going to happen it's a multi-hundred billion dollar market and so look snowflake has a ton of competition that's the other thing all the major cloud players have very capable and competitive database platforms even though they all partner with snowflake except oracle of course but companies like databricks and have garnered tons of vc other vc funded companies have raised billions of dollars to do this kind of elastic consumption based separate compute from storage stuff so you have to always keep an open mind and be aware of potential blind spots for these companies but to the criticisms i would say look snowflake they got there first and watch their ecosystem it's a real key to its continued success snowflake's not going to go it alone and it's going to use its ecosystem partners to expand its reach and accelerate the network effects and fill those gaps and it will acquire its stock is valuable so it should be doing that just as it did with streamlit a zero revenue company that it bought for 800 million dollars in stock and cash just recently streamlit is an open source python library that gets snowflake further deeper into that data science space that data brick space and look watch what snowflake is doing with snowpark it's an api library for processing data and building data intensive applications we've talked about snowflake essentially being becoming the super cloud and building this sort of path-like layer across clouds rather than trying to do it all themselves it seems snowflake is really staring at the api economy and building its ecosystem to plug those holes so let's come back to the customers here's a chart that shows snowflakes customer spending momentum or net score on the the top line that's the vertical axis and pervasiveness in the data or market share and that bottom brown line snowflake has unprecedented net scores and held them up for many many quarters as you can see here going back you know a couple years all leading to its expanded market penetration and measured as pervasiveness of so-called market share within the etr survey it's not like idc market share it's pervasiveness in the data set now i'll say this i don't see how this is sustainable i've been waiting for this to moderate i wouldn't be surprised to see snowflake come back to earth a little bit i think they'll clearly still be highly elevated based on the data that i've seen but but i could see in in one or more of the etr surveys this year this starting to moderate as they get they get big it's just it has to happen um but i would again expect them to have a high spending velocity score but i think we're going to see snowflake you know maybe porpoise a bit here meaning you know it moderates it comes back up it's just really hard to sustain this piece of momentum and higher train retain and scale without absorbing some some friction and some head woods that's going to slow you down but back to the aws growth example it's entirely possible that we could see a similar dynamic with snowflake that you saw with aws and you kind of see it with salesforce and servicenow very successful large entrenched entrenched companies and it's very possible that snowflake could pull back moderate and then accelerate that growth even though people are concerned about the moderated guidance of 80 percent growth yeah that's that's the new definition of tepid i guess i look i like to look at other some other metrics the one that really called you know my my my attention was the remaining performance obligations this last quarter rpo snowflakes is up to something like 2.6 billion and that is a forward-looking indicator of of future revenues so i want to i'd like to see that growing and it's growing at a fast pace so you're going to see some ups and downs with snowflake i have no doubt but i think things are still looking pretty solid for the company growth companies like snowflake and octa and z scalar those other ones that i mentioned earlier have probably been repriced and refactored by investors while there's always going to be market and of course geopolitical risk especially in these times fundamentals matter you've got huge market well capitalized you got a leadership position great products and strong customer adoption you also have a great team team is something else that we look for we haven't touched on that but i'll leave you with this thought everyone knows about frank slootman mike scarpelli and what they've accomplished in their years of working together that's why the stock you know in ipo was was so overvalued they had seen these guys do it before slootman just documented in all this in his book amp it up which gives great insight into the history of of that though you know that pair and and the teams that they've built the companies that they've built how he thinks about building companies and markets and and how you know total available markets super important but the whole philosophy and culture that that he's building in his management style but you got to wonder right how long is this guy going to keep going what keeps him motivated you know i asked him that one time here's what he said why i mean are you in this for the sport what's the story here uh actually that that's not a bad way of characterizing it i think i am in it uh you know for the sport uh you know the only way to become the best version of yourself is to be uh to be under the gun and uh you know every single day and that's that's certainly uh what we are it sort of has its own rewards building great products building great companies uh you know regardless of you know uh what the spoils may be uh it has its own rewards and i i it's hard for people like us to get off the field and uh you know hang it up so here we are so there you have it he's in it for the sport how great is that he loves building companies and that my opinion that's how frank slootman thinks about success it's not about money money's the byproduct of success as earl nightingale would say success is the progressive realization of a worthy ideal i love that quote building great companies building products that change the world changing people's lives with data and insights creating jobs creating life-altering wealth opportunities not for himself but for thousands of employees and partners i'd say that's a pretty worthy ideal and i hope frank slootman sticks with it for a while okay that's it for today thanks to stephanie chan for the background research she does for breaking analysis alex meyerson on production kristen martin and cheryl knight on social with rob hoff on siliconangle and thanks to ivana delevska of spear invest and my friend chip symington for the angles from the money side of things remember all these episodes are available as podcasts just search breaking analysis podcast i publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data you can reach me at devolante or david.velante siliconangle.com and this is dave vellante for cube insights powered by etrbsafe stay well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante predictions are all the rage at this time of year now on december 29th 2020 in collaboration with eric porter bradley of enterprise technology research etr we put forth our predictions for 2021 and the focus of our prognostications included tech spending remote work productivity apps cyber security ipos specs m a data architecture cloud hybrid cloud multi-cloud ai containers automation and semiconductors we covered a lot of ground now over the past several weeks we've been inundated with literally thousands of inbound emails pitching us on various predictions and trends in these and other areas here's my predictions folder and this is only a portion of the documents that i've received by email obviously printed them out killed a few trees sorry hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we're going to review briefly each of our predictions for this past year 2021 and suggest a grade as to how we did we're going to do this as a little warm up for our 2022 predictions which we'll be doing in the next over the next couple of weeks now before we dig in i want to make an observation many of the predictions that we received they were observations of trends and sometimes not really predictions or you know or not surprising we got a lot of self-serving marketing statements you know predictions in our view they should be measurable so you can look back and say okay did they get it right now granted there are gray areas so that's why we'll use a grading system today now there are also many really well done and thought-provoking predictions and there's an example of one that we received that is strong it's from equinix cio milan waglay who said within the decade data centers will be powered by a hundred percent renewable energy okay so you know that's clear and we can measure that but anyway thanks to all the pr folks who sent along like i said literally thousands of predictions we tried to read them all but the volume over the past week or so was just so overwhelming and we'll try to scan them before we do our 2022 predictions but today we want to do that warm up by evaluating how we did in 2021 so let's get started our first prediction was that tech spending would increase by four percent this year coming off of what we had thought was a contraction in 2020 and depending on which data you look at you know best case maybe was flat we definitely correctly called the continuation into 2022 of the remote work trend and the positive impact it would have on pcs and the like but we underestimated the shape of that rebound that that spend back curve idc has tech spending wrote this year at five and a half percent so we feel like while we called the bounce back it was more pronounced than we had thought in fact you know we think that idc number is probably going to go up even higher and we'll address that in our 2022 predictions so so we'll give ourselves a b minus here okay next prediction was remote worker trends become fossilized settling in at an average of 34 percent by year end 2021. so on average 34 of the workers would be remote by the end of this year now you know we made the call but we missed delta no we missed omacrom we said 34 remote which would be 2x the historical norms now the etr data suggests it was 52 in september and it's probably going to be somewhere in the 40 to 45 range by by the end of this month into december and the thing is 75 of the workforce is probably still working either fully remote or in a hybrid model and hybrid work is probably going to be the dominant trend and we're going to have to revisit that framework or how we think about this whole structure and we'll do that again in our 2022 predictions so we'll give ourselves a c on that one we'll take some credit for the permanence of the trend but the percentage was well off the mark you know thanks to the variance as well as some cultural shifts that whole hybrid notion okay so hey not really a great start for eric and me but we rebound with the next one the productivity increases we said seen in 2020 will lead organizations to double down on the successes and certain productivity apps will benefit so to measure this we said let's take a look at the most recent quarterly earnings and gauge the revenue growth year on year as an indicator docusign was up 42 smartsheet who we also called up was up 46 in revenue twilio up 65 zoom growth was 35 down from 325 confirming our layup call the zoom growth would moderate it had nowhere to go but down and microsoft teams has never been more ubiquitous has never seen greater adoption with hundreds of companies having a hundred thousand or more users and thousands of companies with ten thousand users or more so we really feel like we nailed this one so we're gonna give us give ourselves an a plus okay so now on to cyber it's an area that we've been making calls in for a couple of years now and we're really pleased looking back here we said permanent shifts in cso strategies are going to lead to share shifts in network security now we said to give you more detail maybe that sounds like an easy one but we said specifically identity cloud security and endpoint security would continue to benefit and we specifically named crowdstrike octa zscaler and a few others that are targeting their growth rates now gartner has the security market growing at 11 percent octa and zscaler revenues last quarter grew at 62 percent year over year crowdstrike 63 illumia we also called out they raised 225 million dollars on a 2.75 billion valuation on the strength of its growth that was in september now akamai acquired guardiocor for 600 million dollars another company we called out that they would do it they did that as a ransomware protection play and they paid a huge revenue multiple for the company and it seems the guys listed on the last line are all talking about subscriptions sas arr remaining performance obligations or rpo so we feel very good about this look back we'll take an a on this one no it's not an a plus because we're too conservative on the growth of octa crowdstrike and zscaler topping at 50 they they blew that away by another 10 points or so 10 to 15. but look pretty good call nonetheless okay again the next one you might feel like is a layup but not really so we said the increased tech spend would drive even more ipos spax and m a according to spac analytics ipos were up 109 this year the spac attack continued up 109 percent in 2021 on top of a record 2020 and according to kpmg m a dollar volume was up 19 okay you might say uh that was easy call but there was much more underneath this prediction we called out uipass ipo which was a lock but also said automation anywhere would go public uipath did aa didn't we did correctly call the hashicorp ipo we said they'd either get go ipo or get acquired and cloud flare grew revenue 219 percent last quarter but akamai was not acquired so the degree of difficulty on the overall prediction wasn't high but the automation anywhere in akamai events we made those calls that didn't happen and those were you know obviously tougher calls so we think this still deserves a b grade all right as you know data is one of our favorite subjects and we've reported extensively in the successes and failures of so-called big data we said next in the next prediction that in the 2020s 75 percent of large organizations will re-architect their big data platforms and we said this would occur you know in earnest over the next four to five years now again you may say duh dave but you have to evaluate the prediction based on the underlying comments here the jury is still out on things like snowflakes data cloud but we absolutely believe that it's the right direction but then you have then you have data bricks coming in taking a different approach they're coming at the problem from a data science angle trying to take on traditional bi and then you get snowflake coming from the analytics space and moving into ai and data science and you know we asked at aws aws re invent we asked benoit dejaville on the cube if there needs to be a semantic layer to bring these two worlds together and he said yes and that's what he claims snowflake is building meanwhile you got the big whales like oracle they continue to invest in their capabilities to try to eliminate data movement and then there's aws taking a totally different approach to data where it gives customers maximum optionality of offerings and database and other services and you can't forget microsoft and google so many customers might not take the steps that we predicted because they're comfortable where they are specifically we're talking about here a shift toward domain ownership and data product thinking and the reorganization of hyper-specialized technical teams many of the principles put forth by data mesh and we've said this change is going to take a number of years to play out four to five years so we start noticing in 2021 that that's clearly been the case as we reported on parts of jpmorgan chase uh rethinking its data architecture hellofresh and many others so this is still an incomplete the professor we'll give ourselves an incomplete on this one but we think it's trending in the right direction okay the next one is always fun discussion that's the battle to define hybrid and multi-cloud we said that's going to escalate in 2021 and we'll create bifurcated cio strategies now here we go aws sees the world as bringing its apis and primitives and model to the edge and the data center to aws is just another edge node and the company says that in still believes in the fullness of time that all data will be in the cloud however that's defined and aws awareness would say all this talk about hybrid of connecting on-prem to a cloud they would flat out say adam silipsky told us this that's not cloud is what he said then on the other side of the table you have the likes of cisco dell hpe etc saying hold on cloud is an operating model it's not a place and aws might say yeah and aws along with its customers is defining that operating model and these other guys would say no actually you're not we are with our customers and this battle 100 percent escalated in 2021 with the launch of apex by dell hp e double down on green lake cisco's as the service models and then of course oracle which actually announced a true same same public to on-prem hybrid capability two years before aws announced outpost and of course oracle's executing on that strategy in earnest in 2021 and the other nuance here is a concept that we introduced called super cloud which refers to the notion that look something like for example multi-cloud is not about running within a respective cloud it's not about cloud compatibility rather it's about abstracting the complexity of the underlying cloud primitives and building value on top of those cloud services on top of the investments in capex that the hyperscalers have made now some people didn't like the term super cloud maybe uber cloud would be a better term we're going to continue to use it to describe this capability we think it has meaning and we're seeing new examples like goldman sachs's financial cloud running on top of aws so a super cloud is not as an application or a suite of applications running on a single cloud now if those applications span multiple clouds like like snowflake is trying to do okay that's a service that could span multiple clouds or in the case of goldman sachs it's a portfolio of data tools and software that's made accessible as a service that floats on top of a single or even multiple clouds regardless we feel that this was a correct call given the evidence and we'll give ourselves an a minus taking points off for the somewhat anecdotal and observational measurement system that we apply to look back at this prediction okay the next prediction was we made was cloud containers ai and ml automation uh are gonna power that those big four are gonna power 2021 spending here's a graphic we use to predict that it plots survey data for the various technologies within the etr taxonomy net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share or presence in the data set it's a pervasive measurement on the horizontal axis the one that matters here is the vertical that dotted line of 40 percent anything above that is considered highly elevated and these four areas have held served this year based on recent etr survey data that we're not showing here we'll we'll bring that into our 2022 prediction so this prediction came in correctly for the most recent survey data and that's our measurement system on this one so we're going to take an a for this one too now on the penelope ultimate prediction here we came back to automation saying that the automation mandate accelerates in 2021 uipath and automation anywhere we said would go public but microsoft remains a threat to these pure play rpa vendors well we gave ourselves a b on this one doubling down on automation anywhere going public you know that was wrong but we definitely saw this year companies leaning hard into automation and microsoft despite the fact that it doesn't have as feature rich a product and offering as uipath and automation anywhere microsoft remains a very large presence you know we spoke to a lot of customers at the uipath forward four event in october in las vegas physical event and they confirmed you know this is true but at the same time so they're using power automate from microsoft but also using in this case uipath so they've kind of confirmed that yeah it's not the same we use that for some of our productivity we're an azure customer it's easy for us but they're still leaning heavily and investing heavily into uipath and i think the same can be said for automation anywhere but autom but power automate shows up as a big time leader in the magic gartner magic quadrant so it can't be ignored but clearly the two leaders in rpa have a sizable product advantage relative to the legacy software players now if you look at the comment on pega systems they cooled off a bit as measured by their stock price their revenue grew 13 percent last quarter on a year-on-year basis but perhaps we overestimated the tailwind effect and the company's momentum so we'll take a b on this prediction correct call on the automation trend and the big software vendors piling in ibm et cetera but the chance we took on automation anywhere again was a miss so we'll dig ourselves on that and our last prediction for 2021 was 5g rollouts push new edge iot workloads and necessitate new system architectures now much of this prediction you can see in the underlying bullets here really related to the observation that arm was dominating at the edge it would find its way into the mainstream enterprise workloads and we've been asking a lot of the mainstream you know companies the oems you know what do you what do you see with with arm in the enterprise and they say yeah we don't see it yet but very clearly this came into focus in 2021 is aws announced graviton 3 now and new inference and new training silicon these are different types of workloads that are emerging in the enterprise these are all based on arm microsoft google alibaba oracle and others are now shipping or readying arm-based systems for the enterprise when you look at new storage network and security appliances and other systems they're very offering and often including arm-based processors to assist with the offloads and look intel is definitely under product under pressure as we've predicted many times not just in our predictions post even pat gelsinger has admitted this is a turnaround it's going to take at least five years that's kind of new and recent data that he's made public so we're going to take an a minus on this one we're going to take off some points for the fact that you know 5g rollouts in edge are evolving and this is a longer term trend but the underlying points that we made on this slide are still pretty solid now if we use the following scale where a plus is a hundred out of a hundred a minus is a 90 a b is an 85 a b minus is an 80 and a c is a 75 out of 100 and we exclude that incomplete prediction on data architectures we average out to an 87.8 so that's a solid b plus and so the professor in us said hey little yellow sticky good effort as most of the predictions could be quantified and or you know we tried to object objectively score them there were some layups in there so yeah maybe we'll try to take more risks uh you know or not you know we we we'll see we like winning and so you know you always have to couch some of these things with some obvious ones but but really try to give some detail underneath that's maybe non-obvious um and we'll try to keep it down in the legs we did this year to one or two multi-year predictions so what's next well eric bradley and i were working on our 2022 predictions we're going to release those in the next couple of weeks so stay tuned for that you know what do you think how did we do you know we're grading ourselves here love to know you know for we're off base on base we're too hard on ourselves too easy give us your feedback don't forget these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you do is search breaking analysis podcast check out etr's website at etr dot plus remember we also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can always get in touch with email david.velante at siliconangle.com you can dm me at divalante or comment on our linkedin posts this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week everybody stay safe be well we'll see you next time [Music] you

(bright upbeat music) >> Hello everyone. And we're back at AWS Re:Invent. You're watching theCUBE and we're here, day two. Actually we started Monday night and we got wall-to-wall coverage. We going all the way through Thursday, myself. I'm Dave Volante with the co-host, David Nicholson. Lisa Martin is also here. Of course, John Furrier. Partners, technologists, customers, the whole ecosystem. It's good to be back in the live event. Of course we have hybrid event as well a lot of people watching online. Anshu Sharma is here. He is the co-founder and CEO of Skyflow, new type of privacy company, really interested in this topic. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on. >> Thank you, thanks for bringing me here. >> It's timely, you know. Privacy, security, they're kind of two sides of the same coin. >> Yes. >> Why did you found Skyflow? >> Well, the idea for Skyflow really comes from my background in some ways. I spent my first nine years at Oracle, six years at Salesforce. And whether we were building databases or CRM products, customers would come to us and say, "Hey, you know, I have this very different type of data. It's things like social security numbers, frequent flyer card numbers, card numbers. You know, can you secure it better? Can you help me manage things like GDPR?" And to be honest, there was never a clear answer. There's a lot of technology solutions out there that do one thing at a time, you can walk around the booths here, there's like a hundred companies. And if you use all those hundred things correctly, maybe you could go tell your board that maybe a social security number is not going to be lost anymore. And I was like, "You know, we've simplified everything else. Why is it so hard to protect my social security number? It should be easy. It should be as easy as using Stripe or Twilio." And this idea just never went away and kept coming back till a few years ago, we learned about the Facebook privacy challenges, the Equifax challenges. And I was like, boy, it's the time. It's time to go do it now. >> You started the company in 2019. Right? >> Yes. >> I mean, your timing was pretty good, right? So what are the big sort of Uber trends that you're seeing? Obviously GDPR, the California Consumer Privacy Act. I heard this morning. Did you hear this? That like, if you post a picture on social media now without somebody's permission, you're now violating their privacy. It's like, you can see the smiles on Anshu's face. >> Its like every week, we're like every week, there's a new story that could be like, well, Skyflow. The new story is the question, the answer is Skyflow. But honestly I think what's happened is, the issue is put very simple. You know all we're trying to do is protect people's social security numbers, phone numbers, credit card numbers, things we hold dear. At the same time, it's complex. Like what does it mean to protect your social security number let's say? Does that mean I don't get to use it for filing your taxes? Well, I need your credit card number to process a payment. And we were like, this is just too complicated. Why, how do companies like Apple do it? How do companies like Netflix manage not have as many breaches as my hotel that barely has any data. And the answer is those companies actually have evolved to a completely different architecture, the zero trust data architecture. And that was our inspiration for starting this company. >> Yeah. I mean. How many times have you been asked to give your social security number? And you're like, why? why do you want it? What are you going to do with it? How do you protect it? And they go, "I don't know." >> You know, what's even, my favorite is like, you give your social security number to say TurboTax, how many days of the year do they need to use it? One. How many days of the year do they have it? And the thing is, it's a liability for those CTOs too. >> Yeah right. >> The CTO of Walgreens, the CTO of Intuit. They don't really want that social security number just so they can process your card once a year, or your social security number once a year. It's almost like we're forcing them to hold onto data. And then they have to bear the burden of having these stories. Like, you know, everybody wants to prevent a New York Times story that says, what Robin Hood had a breach, Twitter had a breach. >> So walk us through how Skyflow would address something like that. So take the, you know, take the make a generic version of TurboTax, social security members. There they are right now, they're sitting in a database somewhere. Hopefully there's some security wrapped around it in some way or another. What would you advise a customer like that to do? And what are you actually doing for them? >> So, look, it's very simple. You are not going to put your username passwords in a generic database. You're going to use something like OD Zero or Octa to do it. We're living in a world where we have polyglot data stores. Like there's a key value store. There's a time series database. There is a search database like Elastic. There's a log database like Splunk. But PII data, Somehow we think just fine. If it's in a hundred places and our answer is that we should do the same thing that companies like Apple, Netflix, Google, everybody, does. They take this data. They completely isolate it from the databases. And it gets stored in a custom data store in our case, that would be Skyflow. And essentially we'd give you encrypted tokens back and you can use these encrypted tokens that look like fake social security number. It's called a Format Preserving Encryption. So if you think about all the breakthroughs we've had in homomorphic encryption, on secure elements, like the way your phone works, the credit card number is stored in a secure element. So it's the same idea. There's a secure part of your data stack, which is Skyflow. That basically keeps the data always protected. And because we can compute and search on encrypted data, this is important, everybody can encrypt data at rest. Skyflow is the first company that's come out and said, "Look, you can keep your phone number and social security number, encrypted while I can run an aggregation query." So I can tell you what's the balance of your customer's account balance. And i can run that query without decrypting, a single row of data. The only other company I know that can do that internally is a certain Cupertino based company. >> So think about it. Anybody can walk something up to a certain degree, but allowing frictionless access at the same time. >> While it's encrypted. So how do you make that? Are you, is a strategy to make that a horizontal service? That I can put into my data protection service or my E-commerce service or whatever. >> It's a cloud-based service that runs on AWS and other clouds. We basically given instance just like, you'll get an instance of a post-grad store or you get an API handled to OD Zero. You basically instantiate Skyflow of what gets created. It can be in your AWS environment, dedicated VPC. So it's private to you and then you have a handle and then basically you just start using it. >> So how, how do you, what's the secret sauce? How do you do that? >> The secret source. Well, now that we filed the patents on it, I can reveal the secret sauce. So the holy grail of encryption right now, if you go talk to people at a leading company, is there's something called Fully Homomorphic Encryption. That's fundamentally the foundation on which things like Bitcoin are built actually. But the hard part about Fully Homomorphic Encryption is it works. You can actually do mathematical computations on it without decrypting the data, but it's about a million times slower. >> Yes slower, right. >> So nobody uses it. My insight was that we don't need to do multiplications and additions on phone numbers. You never take my phone number and divide by your social security number. (Dave laughing) These numbers are not numbers, they are data structures. So our insight was if you treat them as specialized data structures, we're all talking about basically about 80 different types of data across the globe. Every human being has an ID, date of birth, height, color of eyes. There's not that many fields. What we can do then is create specialized encryption schemes for each data type. We call this polymorphic data encryption. Poly means multiple. As a result of that, we can actually store the data encrypted and build indexes on it. Since we can index interpret data, it's kind of like, imagine you can run real-time queries on data that's encrypted. Every other data store, When you encrypt the data, it becomes invisible to database. And that's why we had to build this as a full stacked service. Just like the Snowflake guys had to start with the foundation of storage, rethink indexing, and build Snowflake. We did the same thing, except we built it for encrypted indexes Whereas they built it for encrypted, for regular data stores. >> So thinking, if you think about today's tech stack, it's evolving, right? The data protection and security are coming together. Where does this fit? Is it sort of now becoming a fundamental part of the-- >> We think every leading company, whether you're building a new brokerage application or you are the largest bank in the world, and we're talking to some of them right now. They're all going to have an internal service called a PII wall. This wall just like Apple and Google have their own internal walls. You're going to have a wall service in your service oriented architecture, essentially. And it's going to basically be the API. Every other application and database in your company is not going to store my social security number. The SSNs don't belong in 600 databases at a leading bank. They don't belong inside your customer support system. Think about what happened with Robinhood two weeks ago, right? Someone tricked one call center guy into giving the keys up, which is fine happens. But why did the call center guy have access to like a million email addresses? He's never used going to use that. So we think if you isolate the PII, every leading company is going to end up with a PII Wall, as part of their core architecture. Just like today, we have an Alt API, you have a Search API, you have a Logging API, you're going to have a PII API. And that's going to be part of your modern data stack. >> So okay. So this is definitely not a bolt on, right? It's going to be a fundamental company, just like security is, just like backup is. It's now, you got to have it. It's-- >> Yes. I mean, if you think about it, it just logically makes sense. Like you should be isolating this data. You don't keep your money and gold around at home. You put it either in a locker or a bank. I think the same applies for PII. We just haven't done it because companies would pay off a fine for $10,000 or a million dollars. And. >> Yeah. So you've recently raised $45 million to expand your efforts. Obviously that means that people are looking at this and saying there's opportunity, right? What does that look like when you think of growth, where during your go to market strategy at first you're convincing people that it's a good idea to do it. Do you think or hope for, hope one day that there's an inflection point where it's not that people are thinking, you know, let's do this because it's a good idea, but people are like, I have to do this because if I don't, it's irresponsible and I'm going to be penalized for not having it. It becomes something that isn't really a choice. It's something where you just do it. >> So, you know, when we were starting the company, we didn't even have a word to explain what we were trying to do. We would say things like what if there was a cloud service for XYZ. And, but over the last one year, I don't want to take credit for creating this market, but this market has been created in the last year and a half. And you know, we get tons of people, including some of the largest institutions emailing us, saying, "I'm looking to build a PII wall, API service inside my company. Can you tell me why your product meets that need?" And I thought that would take us three to five years to get there. And, you know, we've ended up creating a category, basically just like other companies have. And I think, you know, you don't get, I believe in market permission. You don't get to create a category. The market gives somebody the permission to create a category. Saying, "Look, this makes sense. Something like this should emerge." And if you're there at the right time, like you said. >> Yep. >> You get to take the opportunity. >> So where are you at as a company say for some, some capital is great. When do you scale? >> We're scaling now? So we just doubled our headcount in the last nine to 10 months. We're now 75 people. We think we'll be about 150 to 200 people in the next year. We are hiring across all regions. We just hired a head of Asia pack from segment.com. We just hired our first, you know, lead on international expansion. And in the US, we have an office in Palo Alto. We have an office in Bangalore. We just announced a data residency solution for Europe, data residency solution for India and emerging markets. Because data residency is another one of those things that's just emerging right now. And irrespective of whether you believe in security and privacy. Data residency is one of those things that you are mandated to implement. >> And where are you hiring? Is it combination to go to market? Tell me about your go to market. >> The go to market. We are direct sales organization, but we work with partners. So we haven't announced some of these partnerships, but you're working with some of the companies here who either are large database companies, large security companies. We think there is a win-win relationship between us and some of the partner. >> You're a partner model, partner channel model. >> So, direct sales but partner assisted. >> Yeah. Right. All right. We got to go. Hey, awesome story. Congratulations. Best of luck. >> Very interesting. >> Love to have you back and track the progress. >> Thank you, thank you so much. >> Okay. Thank you for watching theCUBE, the leader in and high-tech coverage. We're at Re-Invent 2021. Be right back (upbeat music)

(upbeat music) >> Welcome back to theCUBE's, ongoing coverage of VMworld 2021. My name is Dave Volante. You know, I've been following VMware since the early days. And what is the one of, one of the most interesting stories in the history of enterprise tech? One of the hallmarks of VMware over the course of its long history has been a strong number two leader, an individual who looked after operations or advanced corporate development and enhanced, if you will, expanded the eyes, the ears, the heart, and the mind of the CEO. You know, at one point last decade, VMware actually had four co presidents. Some of the most accomplished individuals in Silicon valley have held this role. And it's our pleasure to welcome in VMware's newest president, Sumit Dhawan. Sumit welcome back to the cube, good to see you. >> Thank you, Dave. Great to be here. >> Okay, so you've been in this role for just over a hundred days after a 16 month stint as chief customer officer. So that's certainly a nice dovetail into your new role as president, but give us an overview of your new role here at VMware. What are your priorities? What are the key areas of focus? You know, SAS transformation, you got a lot going on, share with us. >> Yeah. You know, I think the main focus for me is to make sure our company's priorities are aligned with our customers. And in the first hundred days, my first objective was to spend as much time as possible with customers because it's, it's a source of learning for us. It's, it's clear speaking with customers, what their challenges are and what we ought to be doing to assist them in addressing those challenges. So I, really my responsibility, obviously I've got all the operations part of the business, which enable our customers to be successful, starting from, you know, ensuring that we chart the right path for them in success, in the sales organization, all the way to making sure that they are successful with the adoption of our solutions, with our services and support organizations. So, so spending time with the customers has been critical. And Dave, what I've learned is that customers are looking for VMware, just like they have in the past, be this trusted foundation for all of their innovation in the prior era pre cloud era to their data center and mobility technologies take that forward into the multicloud era, which is where now is where they're building new applications, taking their existing applications to the power of the cloud and across multiple clouds. And our objective is to make sure we keep providing that trusted foundation for them, for the new multi-cloud era. And I'm excited about it. >> Yeah, me too. Let's do it. We're going to dig into that a little bit. So you're obviously spending time getting close to the customers, of course, remotely, for the most part, some of those big themes you've mentioned, but I'd like to sort of peel the onion on that. Maybe some of the challenges that your customers are facing in terms of actually bringing forth that multi-cloud vision and specifically what's your approach to solving those challenges. >> Yeah. So, you know, as we all know, customers start out with this adopt started out adoption of the cloud. They started building some applications on the cloud. A lot of times these were the applications that were built, which were customer facing. And there was this cloud first thinking at that point of time. But soon the customers have realized and now customers have realized that power of building new innovation doesn't just lie in one cloud because there are certain capabilities like AI and ML that maybe they get from a cloud like Google. There are certain capabilities that may be storage and compute where maybe they prefer AWS productivity and identity maybe coming from Microsoft cloud. So the power comes in by adopting all of these services across cloud. It has lots of benefits, innovation at the fastest possible speed for our customers. Secondly, it helps customers not necessarily risk locking in and helps manage them, manage their costs. But in this multicloud world, it's a fairly complicated, and it can get very complex. Think about all the security networking developer experience control. Now this is where our customers need freedom and yet control to be able to have this multicloud environment managed and enabled for developer experience as best as possible. That's the problem we are committed to solving, and our solution and we call that across cloud services. >> I want to stay on this for a minute because I've been talking about multi-cloud this abstraction layer. This is really your opportunity on the cube last year with John farrier. You said the following quote multicloud doesn't mean you're running two different architectures on two different clouds. That's not multicloud. Multicloud means running a singular architecture on multiple clouds. Now Sumit, you're a technologist at the core. What you described is not trivial, it's a huge technical challenge. Can you talk about what VMware has to do to make that single architecture a reality? >> That's exactly the challenge team because you can adopt multiple clouds, but if you're doing so with different architectures, you're not getting the benefits of the velocity of building new applications fast, security is done in a unified fashion operations, at scale. To me, I would call that not a smart path to multi multiple clouds. The smart path to multiple cloud would be through a unified experience for developers, a control layer, which helps you orchestrate your applications in a unified fashion for your operators and security done in an, in a unified or a consistent fashion so that you know that you have the right governance. That's what I consider the smart path to multicloud. Doing any other way would actually be not fruitful. And that's what customers have had to face with without a solution like VMs. So we provide, that's what I call the smart path to multicloud. >> All right. So don't hate me for this, but I want to, I want to push on this and get your point of view on record if I can, because it's an important topic and you've intimated that choosing a single cloud provider, it's, it's problematic for customers, it's it, it limits the customers flexibility and choice. And I want to unpack that a bit and if I'm mischaracterizing your view, please correct me, but, but I want to understand why this is limiting. For example, if I go to AWS, I got access to primitives and API APIs. I got a range of compute storage, networking options, dozens of databases, open source, I get VMware cloud and AWS. So explain why this is a constraint for a customer. >> Yeah, it's a, it's a constraint for really three major reasons. Number one, different services are available across cloud that provide different capabilities. Sure, AWS provides a very rich set of primitives. So does Azure. So does Google. And in certain cases, when you're dealing with data sovereignty requirements across different countries, so to those clouds. So the, but if you are really looking for the best possible solution for AI and ML that may or may not sit in the cloud that you may have preferred for your compute and storage. If you're looking for identity solutions that integrate really well with the productivity applications that you have, that may not be the same cloud that you may have booked picked for AI and ML. You don't need to make compromises. In fact, developers don't want to make those compromises, but because by making those compromises, you're increasing your cost and lowering their customer experience. That's the power of leveraging innovation across cloud. Secondly, think about now, if you just build all your applications, buy services from one cloud and your entire business gets dependent on it. If there's risk there's cost. And that's why customers are telling us that they have made a decision for multicloud. In fact, we did a recent study Dave, and in the recent study, we found out that 73% of our customers are already running their applications on multi-cloud. If this is no longer a something of a future it's here today, they're just facing these challenges today with multicloud. >> And am I right? That there they're running applications on multiple clouds, but it's your job and your challenge now, to be able to abstract the underlying complexity of those multiple clouds and make it appear as one, I'm assuming that's not fully happening today, maybe that's an understatement, but that is your opportunity and your customer's opportunity, is that a fair statement? >> That's exactly our mission. We are providing our customers that foundation so that they can enable multicloud and drive their own innovation agenda at the pace that they want to. We did that in the past for data center technologies or mobile devices. Remember mobile devices come in different operating systems, different formats and data centers, hardware from servers, storage and network has always come in different flavors. We have abstracted that complexity for our customers in the past to deliver innovation three cloud, we're bringing the same value proposition. Now in the world of multicloud, obviously the applications have changed. They're no longer traditional applications. Now they are more and more cloud native applications. So we have solutions for cloud native enterprise applications that continue to be the heartbeat of more, more, most customers. We have solutions for traditional enterprise applications and the new and emerging edge native applications because of just now people and workforce being anywhere. We have solutions for providing security and providing additional functions for edge native applications. So that's what we are bringing to our customers as a platform that abstracts this complexity of multicloud. >> So much to talk to you about because you're right, the application is, are evolving. It's not just the standard SAP windows, et cetera. There's cloud native applications, there's data intensive applications. But, but I want to ask you, so in order for you to achieve that, you have to be able to exploit those primitives that we were talking about, whether it's AWS or Google Azure, Alibaba, you've got to understand as engineers, how to take advantage of whatever the cloud provider is offering, and then hide that complexity from the customer, and then build that, that layer and to do that it, to accommodate all these new applications. Not only do you have to have traditional, you have to have processor optionality, you got edge, you see arm coming in. If my understanding is, that's a big part of what project Monterrey is all about is offering that optionality around different workloads. Can you, can we dig into that a little bit? >> Yeah. So I think first of all, the people under appreciated or under estimate what it would be required for making sure that the applicant, the complexity of all of these different cloud platforms is, is, you know, abstracted by VMware solution. So customers don't have to think about, you know, what are the-- what is the different storage or server or primitives that are needed on Azure versus AWS? All of that gets hidden from customers in a simplified fashion, so with our solution, okay. So, and yet at the same time, there's no compromise that customers have. They can still leverage all the native primitives and services that the different cloud providers are using seamlessly. So that's very important. Now, in addition, what we are doing is we are continually making sure our platform can run the next generation of applications we are continually innovating to do so. And that's where project Monterey comes in. As customers build new applications, when they want to build those new applications and run emerging services that are highly sort of compute centric or network centric, or are providing rich amount of data. This is where project Monterey comes in. It enables our customers to, A, take all of the traditional applications onto VMware cloud, run it on across any cloud. And then B, when they are trying to expand those capabilities into the applications, the project Monterey enables them to do so by enabling new capabilities being powered in to the VMware cloud foundation. >> Yeah. So essentially you're, you're, you're building what I would look at as a new type of cloud that, that comprises on prem connections to public, to public cloud, across public clouds. And then out to the edge, you've talked a lot about telco, the specialized needs of the telco. Clearly there's different processing requirements. You've talked about 5G where we might not always have connectivity out there. Developers need to be able to write code for that edge. So it's an entirely new world you're essentially building out your own cloud. So you have to build in all that optionality all the tools. And at the same time, if, if just like the big cloud providers, you have to provide your own tooling, but also be open to providing other people's tooling. Am I getting that right? >> Yeah, I think you're right. In terms of the tooling part there, what has happened is standards for controlling. All of the infrastructure has, you know, has become Kubernetes. Okay. So we have embraced that in fact, most the talent that has created the best Kubernetes at this point in time, we have it at VMware. Okay. The most contributions that are being made in terms of that standard, the most interesting ones are coming from VMware. So in terms of Kubernetes, we have embraced it. And what we are seeing is a tooling needs to be done in a way so that our customers can manage from infrastructure to their platform, all via code, all the standard like Kubernetes. And that's what we have embraced while at the same time, this tooling is done in a fashion so that the entire VM-ware cloud and the entire VMware Tansu platform can be controlled in a fashion that fits into customer's entire environment on how they manage it overall. >> Okay. So let's take that conversation to security. I don't know if you're familiar with the Optiva, it's this mind blowing, eye bleeding chart with all the different security tools in there, and I've been watching the moves that you guys have been making, you know, Carbon Black's an obvious one, what you're doing with end user computing and a number of other applications, creating a security, you know, cloud group within VMware. So that's a good example, but at the same time, customers are using all kinds of different, different toolings based on that chart. So are you saying it's the Kubernetes is the, is the secret their API APIs that allow you to, if a customer wants to use Octa or CrowdStrike or whatever it is, you can, you can incorporate that into the framework, or if they want to go all VMware, they can do that as well. Can you help us understand that? >> Yeah, I think our philosophy is that there are two components that are critical for making a solution, help our customers take the smartest path to multicloud, networking and security. So on security front, the philosophy is quite simple. You know, these days when you're going out and buying a car, you're not getting buying the car and outfitting it with airbags and, you know, AB, ABS, and any other sort of safety features, okay, why do we do that in the world of infrastructure and technology? It should just come as an, as an, even an option or a required component within the infrastructure itself, that's our philosophy. And so coming back to, if, if customers say they want to take an approach to multicloud, they want to make sure their developer experience their DevOps capabilities and their infrastructure management capabilities are there across all types of three applications, I mentioned, you know, the, the, the modern apps, the traditional enterprise apps and edge edge native apps. Our approach is quite simple, networking and security. Firstly is built in, okay, it's integrated in, you're not installing agents, you're not managing security thing on top. You're not putting air bags into the car after the purchase, they come with the purchase, you can choose to activate them or not activate them based on your price sensitivity. Second, we tell, we have, they're consistent once you learn them how to do it for traditional enterprise applications, the same capabilities, the same security workbench, the same detection and response capabilities carry forward to cloud native applications and edge native applications. That's the way we are thinking about for security for in our portfolio. >> It is the strategy summit to sort of be an end to end supplier of security, in other words, when you touch all parts of the stack, I mean, obviously with carbon black could do an end point, but, but things like identity and privilege, access and governance, I mean, there's just so many pieces to the value chain. Ca, will you try to try to be best of breed across that chain? Or do you see yourself picking this picking spots? >> No, Our focus is to pick the areas that we have focused on which is to enable customers to run, build and run and secure those, those applications that I mentioned, you know, the cloud native applications, edge native applications and enterprise applications. And our focus is to, to be able to secure those applications in, A, a consistent fashion and, B, built into the infrastructure, so it's not boarded on. So that's a focus on strategy and we still have great partnerships in the ecosystem for the rest of the portfolio, for the security technology to fit in with the rest of it. We just don't think that for the infrastructure that's running these critical business applications, you need, you should have, you know, a requirement to build these applications, build a security on top of it. And that's sort of our commitment to our customers. >> Got it. That makes sense. I mean, you've got a pretty clear swim lane in your infrastructure space. There might be a little gray area there, but you'll let the ecosystem take care of that if it makes sense. So I guess I would say I look back and if it was, first of all, VMware has had amazing engineering over the years, you're, you're very well known for that. You just, you just mentioned some of the best Kubernetes engineers on the planet. And of course, November is a big milestone for VMware, with the spin, you now will become a completely independent company again. And, and that's a big deal in my mind because I think, I think this is going to be expensive. I mean, to actually do this, these are big investments that you have to make. And I've, I feel like you finally going to get control of your own balance sheet, so you can make these investments as you see fit. So that's got to be an exciting time for you. And because I think you're going to need that free cash flow to really drive this in, in addition to the other things that you're going to do with buybacks and stock options, et cetera. >> I think we had excited about this whole upcoming, you know, spin off from Dell. Dell will continue to be a very important partner of ours. In fact, we have quoted and quantified what we are doing with them on innovation, as well as on sales and distribution perspective together. And I think, you know, to be candid just through that agreements that we have put in place without, I think the partnership could even get stronger because we have 15 statements of work where we have defined new innovation projects with Dell, for example. Okay. But at the same time, like you mentioned, we get a little bit more flexibility to be able to chart our own course, which is critical in the world of multicloud. Okay. We need, we are able to, not, not that we were constrained on, but customers still always asked us about how would you continue to sustain the partnerships with the cloud and hyperscalers? That's no longer a question in customers' eyes once you're independent. And secondly, it does give us flexibility on balance sheet to be able to make investments as needed within the agenda that we have on multicloud without having to, you know, sort of negotiate that. >> Yeah, I think it's an awesome move, of course, because I mean, I've certainly since the, the, the Dell acquisition of EMC, your business has even grown more with those combined companies. So we've seen that, but I, you know, I liken it to the, to the coach who has a kid on the team and the coach is extra hard on the kid, you know, and that's kind of almost the way it had to be in that relationship because your posture with the ecosystem had to be, hey, we're an open ecosystem. And so, and that was sometimes kind of weird and uncomfortable. Now it's clean, it's transparent. So I'm really looking forward to the innovation that you can create with Dell, of course, but with other parts of the ecosystem, which you always have, but I'm hoping the ecosystem now leans in even more. It's always had too, because you've got half a million customers and you've got a, such a huge presence in the market, but, but I think now there's going to be a little more comfort level there. So I'm really excited for that Sumit. >> Great. >> Hey, so this was great conversation. I can't wait to have you back really appreciate your time and insights. >> Well, thank you so much, Dave, from our perspective at VMware, you know, as I started with customers, I'm going to end sort of this thing with customers as well, always great times, great to spend time with customers. And we truly believe we have the best platform to give our customers the smartest path to multicloud. And I know, I know the feedback so far has been great. It's always great spending time with you. Thank you for having me. >> It's our pleasure, and we wish you the best. And thank you everybody for watching. This is Dave Volante for the cubes, continuous coverage of VM world 2021. Keep it right there. (upbeat music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante by the dip has been been an effective strategy since the market bottomed in early march last year the approach has been especially successful in tech and even more so for those tech names that one were well positioned for the forced march to digital i sometimes call it i.e remote work online commerce data centric platforms and certain cyber security plays and two already had the cloud figured out the question on investors minds is where to go from here should you avoid some of the high flyers that are richly valued with eye-popping multiples or should you continue to buy the dip and if so which companies that capitalized on the trends from last year will see permanent shifts in spending patterns that make them a solid long-term play hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we shine the spotlight on three companies that may be candidates for a buy the dip strategy and it's our pleasure to welcome in ivana delevco who's the chief investment officer and founder of spear alpha a new research-centric etf focused on industrial technology ivana is a long-time equity analyst with a background in both long and short investing ivana welcome to the program thanks so much for coming on thanks for having me david yeah it's really our pleasure i i want to start with your etf and give the folks a bit more background about you first you know we gotta let people know i'm not an investment pro i'm not an advisor i don't make stock recommendations i don't sell investments so you got to do your own research i have a lot of data so happy to share it but you got to understand your own risks you of course yvonne on the other hand you do offer investment services and so people before investing got to carefully review all the available available investment docs understand what you're getting into before you invest now with that out of the way ivana i have some stats up here on this slide your spear you're a newly launched female lead firm that does deep research into the supply chain we're going to talk about that you try to uncover as i understand it under-appreciated industrial tech firms and some really pretty cool areas that we list here but tell us a little bit more about your background and your etf so thanks for having me david my background is in industrial research and industrial technology investments i've spent the past 15 years covering this space and what we've seen over the past five years is technology changes that are really driving fundamental shifts in industrial manufacturing processes so whether this is 5g connectivity innovation in the software stack increasing compute speeds all of these are major technological advancements that are impacting uh traditional manufacturers so what we try to do is assess speak to these firms and assess who is at the leading and who is at the lagging end of this digital transformation and we're trying to assess what vendors they're using what processes they're implementing and that is how we generate most of our investment ideas okay great and and we show on the bottom of of this sort of intro slide if you will uh so one of the processes that you use and one of the things that that is notable a lot of people compare you uh to kathy woods are investments when you came out uh i think you use a different process i mean maybe there are some similarities in terms of disruption but at the bottom of this slide it shows a mckinsey sort of graphic that that i think informs people as to how you really dig into the supply chain from a research standpoint is that right absolutely so for us it's all about understanding the supply chain going deep in the supply chain and gather data points from primary sources that we can then translate into investment opportunities so if you look at this mckinsey graph uh you will see that there is a lot of opportunity to for these companies to transform themselves both on the front end which means better revenue better products and on their operation side which means lower cost whether it's through better operations or through better processes on the the back end so what we do is we will speak to a traditional manufacturing company and ask them okay well what do you use for better product development and they will give us the name of the firms and give us an assessment of what's the differences between the competitors why they like one versus the other so then we're gonna take the data and we will put it into our financial model and we'll understand the broader market for it um the addressable market the market share that the company has and will project the growth so for these higher growth stocks that that you cover the main alpha generation uh potential here is to understand what the amount of growth these companies will generate over the next 10 to 20 years so it's really all about projecting growth in the next three years in the next five years and where will growth ultimately settle in in the next 10 to 20 years love it we're gonna have a fun conversation because today we're going to get into your thesis for cooper snowflake and z scalar we're going to bring in some of our own data some of our data from etr and and why you think these companies may be candidates for long-term growth and and be buy the dip stock so to do that i hacked up this little comparison slide we're showing here i do this for context our audience knows i'm not a cfa or a valuation expert but we like to do simple comparisons just to give people context and a sense of relative size growth and valuation and so this chart attempts to do that so what i did is i took the most recent quarterly revenue for cooper snowflake and z scalar multiplied it by four to get a run rate we included servicenow in the table just for baseline reference because bill mcdermott as we've reported aspires to make service now the next great enterprise software company alongside with salesforce and oracle and some of the others and and all these companies that we list here that through the three here they aspire to do so in their own domain so we're displaying the market cap from friday morning september 10th we calculated a revenue run rate multiple and we show the quarterly revenue growth and what this data does is gives you a sense of the three companies they're well on their way to a billion dollars in revenue it underscores the relationship between revenue growth and valuation snowflake being the poster child for that dynamic savannah i know you do much more detailed financial analysis but let's talk about these companies in order maybe start with koopa they just crushed their quarter i mean they blew away consensus on the top line what else about the company do you like and why is it on your by the dip list so just to back up david on valuation these companies investors either directly or indirectly value on a dcf basis and what happened at the beginning of the year as interest rates started increasing people started freaking out and once you plug in 100 basis points higher interest rate in your dcf model you get significant price downside so that really drove a lot of the pullback at the beginning of the year right now where we stand today interest rates haven't really moved all that significantly off the bot of the bottom they're still around the same levels maybe a little bit higher but those are not the types of moves that are going to drive significant downside in this stock so as things have stabilized here a lot of these opportunities look pretty attractive on that basis so koopa specifically came out of our um if you go back to that uh the chart of like where the opportunities lie in um in across the manufacturing uh um enterprise koopa is really focused on business pen management so they're really trying to help companies reduce their cost uh and they're a leader in the space uh they're unique uh unique in that they're cloud-based so the feedback we've been hearing from from our companies that use it jetblue uses it train technologies uses it the feedback we've been hearing is that they love the ease of implementation so it's very easy to implement and it drives real savings um savings for these companies so we see in our dcf model we see multiple years of this 30 40 percent growth and that's really driving our price target yeah and we can i can confirm that i mean i mean just anecdotally you know you know we serve a lot of the technology community and many of our clients are saying hey okay you know when you go to do invoicing or whatever you work with procurement it's koopa you know this is some ariba that's kind of the legacy which is sap we'll talk about that a little later but let's talk about snowflake um you know snowflake we've been tracking them very closely we know the management there we've watched them through their last two companies now here and have been following that company early on since since really 2015. tell us why you like snowflake um and and maybe why you think it can continue its rapid growth thanks david so first of all i need to compliment you on your research on the company on the technology side so where we come in is more from understanding where our companies can use soft snowflake and where snowflake can add value so what we've been hearing from our companies is the challenge that they're facing is that everybody's moving to the cloud but it's not as simple as just send your data to the cloud and call aws and they're gonna generate more revenue for your solve your cost problem so what we've been hearing is that companies need to find tools that are easy to use where they can use their own domain expertise and just plug and play so um ansys is one of the companies we covered the dust simulation they've found snowflake to be an extremely useful tool in sales lead generation and within sales crm systems have been around for a while and they're they've really been implemented but analyzing sales numbers is something that is new to this company some some of our companies don't even know what their sales are even when they look back after the quarter is closed so tools like this help um companies do easy analytics and therefore drive revenue and cost savings growth so we see really big runway for for this company and i think the most misunderstood part about it is that people view it as a warehousing data warehousing play while this is all about compute and the company does a good job separating the two and what our their customers like or like the companies that we cover like about it is that it can lower their compute costs um and make it much easier much more easily manageable for them great and we're going to talk about more about each of these companies but let's talk about z-scaler a bit i mean z-scaler is a company we've been very excited about and identified them kind of early on they've definitely benefited from the move to cloud generally and specifically the remote work uh situation with the cyber threats etc but tell us why you like z-scaler so interestingly z-scaler um we like the broader security space um the broader cyber security space and interestingly our companies are not yet spending to the level that is commensurate with the increase in attack rate so we think this is a trend that is really going to accelerate as we go forward um my own board 20 of the time on the last board meeting was spent on cyber security what we're doing and this is a pretty simple operation that that we're running here so you can imagine for a large enterprise with thousands of people all around the world um needing to be on a single simple system z-scaler really fits well here very easy to implement several of our industrial companies use it siemens uses it ge uses it and they've had great great experience with it excellent i just want to take a quick look at how some of these names have performed over the last year and and what if anything this data tells us this is a chart comparing the past 12 months performance of of those four companies uh that we just talked about and we added in you know servicenow z scalar as you can see has outperformed the other despite your commentary on discounted cash flow snowflake is underperformed really precisely for the reasons that you mentioned not to mention the fact that it was pretty highly valued and you can see relative to the nas but it's creeping back lately after very strong earnings even though the stock dropped after it beat earnings because the street wants the cfo to say to guide even higher than maybe as mike scarpelli feels is prudent and you can see cooper has also underperformed relatively speaking i mean it absolutely destroyed consensus this week the stock went up but it's been off with the the weaker market this week i know you like to take a longer term view but but anything you would add here yeah so interestingly both z-scaler and koopa were in the camp of as we went into earnings expectations were already pretty high because few of their competitors reported very strong results so this scalar yesterday their revenue growth was was pretty strong the stock is down today uh and the reason is because people were kind of caught up a little bit in the noise of this quarter growth is 57 last quarter it was 60 like is this a deceleration we don't see it as that at all and the company brought up one point that i thought was extremely interesting which is as their deal sizes are getting larger it takes a little longer time for them to see the revenue come through so it takes a little bit of time to for you to see it into from billings into into revenue same thing with cooper very strong earnings report but i think expectations were already pretty high going into it uh given the service now and um and anna plan as well reported strong results so i think it's all about positioning so we love these setups where you can buy the deep in on this opportunity where like people get caught up in um short-term noise and and it creates good entry points excellent i i want to bring in some data from our partner etr and see if you have any comments ivana so what we're showing here is a two-dimensional chart we like to show this uh very frequently it's based on a survey of between a thousand and fifteen hundred chief information officers and technology buyers every quarter this is from their most recent july survey the vertical axis shows net score which is a measure of spending momentum i mean this it measures the net percentage of customers in the survey that are spending more on a particular product or platform in other words it essentially subtracts the percentage of customers spending less from those spending more which yields a net score it's more granular than that but basically that's what it does the horizontal axis is market share or pervasiveness in the data set it's not revenue market share like you get from idc it's it's a mention market share and now that red dotted line at the 40 percent mark on the vertical represents an elevated level in other words anything above 40 percent we consider notable and we've plotted our three by the dip companies and included some of their competitors for context and you can see we added salesforce servicenow and oracle and that orange ellipse because they're some of the bigger names in the software business so let's take these in alphabetical order ivana starting with koopa in the blue you can see we plotted them next to sap's ariba and you can see cooper has stronger spending momentum but not as much presence in the market so to me my influence is oh that's an opportunity for them to steal share more modern technology you know more facile and of course oracle has products in this space but the oracle dot includes all oracle products not just the procurement stuff but uh maybe your thoughts on this absolutely i love this chart i think that's your spot on this would be the same way i would interpret the chart where um increased spending momentum is is a sign of the company providing products that people like and we we expect to see cooper's share grow market share grow over time as well so let's come back to the chart and i want to i want to really point out the green ellipse this is the data zone if you will uh and we're like a broken record on this program with snowflake has performed unbelievably well in net score and spending momentum every quarter the dtr has captured enough end sample in its survey holding near or above 80 percent its net score consistently is has been up there and we've plotted data bricks in that zone it's been expected right that data bricks is going to do an ipo this year late last month company raised 1.6 billion in a private round so i guess that was either a strategy to delay the ipo or raise a bunch more cash and give late investors a low risk bite at the apple you know pre-ipo as we saw with snowflake last year what we didn't plot here are some of snowflake's biggest competitors ivana who also happen to be their partners most notably the big cloud players all who have their own database offerings aws microsoft and google now you've said snowflake is much more than a database company i wonder if you could add some color here yeah that's a very good point david uh basically the the driver of the thesis in snowflake is all about acceleration and spending and what we are seeing is the customers that are signed up on their platform today they're not even spending they're probably spending less than five percent of what they can ultimately spend on this product and the reason is because they don't yet know what the ultimate applications are for this right so you're gonna start with putting the data in a format you can use and you need to come up with use cases or how are you actually going to use this data so back to the example that i gave with answers the first use case that they found was trying to optimize leads there could be like 100 other use cases and they're coming up with with those on a daily basis so i would expect um this score to keep keep uh keep up pretty high or or go even higher as we as people figure out how they can use this product you know the buy-the-dip thesis on snowflake was great last quarter because the stock pulled back after they announced earnings and when we reported we said you know mike the the company see well cleveland research came out remember they got the dip on that and we looked at the data and we said mike scarpelli said that you know we're going to probably as a percentage of overall customers decelerate the net net new logos but we're going deeper into the customer base and that's exactly what's happening with with snowflake but okay let's bring up the slide again last but not least the z scaler we love z scalar we named z scaler in 2019 as an emerging four-star security company along with crowdstrike and octa and we said these three should be on your radar and as you see we've plotted z scalar with octa who with its it's its recent move into to converging identity and governance uh it gets kind of interesting uh we plotted them with palo alto as well another cyber security player that we've covered extensively we love octa in addition to z-scaler we great respect for palo alto and you'll note all of them are over that 40 percent line these are disruptors they're benefiting well not so much palo alto they're more legacy but the the other two are benefiting from that shift to work from home cloud security modern tech stack uh the acquisition that octa-made of of of auth0 and again z scalar cloud security getting rid of a lot of hardware uh really has a huge tailwind at its back if on a zscaler you know they've benefited from the huge my cloud migration trend what are your thoughts on the company so i actually love all three companies that are there right and the point is people are just going to spend more money whether you are on the cloud of the cloud the data centers need more security as well so i think there is a strong case to be made for all three with this scaler the upside is that it's just very easy to use very easy to implement and if you're somebody that is just setting up infrastructure on the cloud there is no reason for you to call any other competitor right with palo alto the case there is that if you have an established um security platfor if you're on their security platform the databa on the data center side uh they they did introduce through several acquisitions a pretty attractive cloud offering as well so they've been gaining share as well in the space and and the company does look pretty attractive on valiation basis so for us cyber security is really all about rising tide lifts all boats here right so you can have a pure play like this scaler uh that benefits from the cloud but even somebody like palo alto is pretty well positioned um to benefit yeah we think so too over a year ago we reported on the valuation divergence between palo alto and fortinet fortinet was doing a better job moving to the cloud and obviously serves more of a mid-market space palo alto had some go-to-market execution challenges we said at the time they're going to get through those and when we talk to chief information security officers palo alto is like the gold standard they're the thought leader they want to work with them but at the same time they also want to participate in some of these you know modern cloud stacks so i we agree there's plenty of room for all three um just to add a bit more color and drill into the spending data a little bit more this slide here takes that net score and shows the progression since january 2019 and you can see a snowflake just incredible in terms of its ability to maintain that elevated net score as we talked about and the table on the insert it shows you the number of responses and all three of these companies have been getting more mentions over time but snowflake and z scale are now both well over 100 n in the survey each quarter and the other notable piece here and this is really important you can see all three are coming out of the isolation economy with the spending uptick nice upticks shown in the most recent survey so that's again another positive but i want to close ivana with kind of making the bull and bear case and have you address really the risks to the buy the dip scenario so look there are a lot of reasons to like these companies we talked about them cooper they've got earnings momentum you know management on the call side had very strong end market demand this the stock you know has underperformed the nasdaq you know this year snowflake and zscaler they also have momentum snowflake get this enormous tam uh although they were punished for not putting a hard number on it which is ridiculous in my opinion i mean the thing is it's huge um the investors were just kind of you know wanting a little binky baby blanket but they all have modern tech in the cloud and really importantly this shows in the etr surveys you know the momentum that they have so very high retention is the other point i wanted to make the very very low churn of these companies however cooper's management despite the blowout quarter they gave kind of underwhelming guidance they've cited headwinds uh they've with the the the lamisoft uh migration to their cloud platform snowflake is kind of like price to perfection so maybe that's an advantage because every every little negative news is going to going to cause the company to dip but it's you know it's pretty high value because salutman and scarpelli everybody expects them to surpass what happened at servicenow which was a rocket ship and it could be all argued that all three are richly priced and overvalued so but ivana you're looking out as you said a couple of years three years maybe even five years how do you think about the potential downside risks in in your by the dip scenario you buy every dip you looking for bigger dips or what's your framework there so what we try to do is really look every quarter the company reports is there something that's driving fundamental change to the story or is it a one-off situation where people are just misunderstanding what the company is reporting so in the case we kind of addressed some of the earnings that that were reported but with koopa we think the man that management is guiding conservatively as they should so we're not very concerned about their ability to execute on on the guidance and and to exceed the guidance with snowflake price to perfection that's never a good idea to avoid a stock uh because it just shows that there is the company is doing a great job executing right so um we are looking for reports like the cleveland report where they would be like negative on the stock and that would be an entry point uh for us so broadly we apply by the deep philosophy but not not if something fundamentally changes in the story and none of these three are showing any signs of fundamental change okay we're going to leave it right there thanks to my guest today ivana tremendous having you would love to have you back great to see you thank you david and def you definitely want to check out sprx and the spear etf now remember i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com these episodes they're all available as podcasts all you do is search breaking analysis podcasts you can always connect with me on twitter i'm at d vallante or email me at david.vellante at siliconangle.com love the comments on linkedin don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

>>mhm >>Hello welcome to this cube conversation here in Palo alto California and john for with the cube we had a great conversation around the rise of the cloud and the massive opportunities and challenges around analytics data ai suggestion. Air ceo of thought spot is here with me for conversation. Great to see you. Welcome back to the cube. How are you? >>Well john it is so good to be back. I wish that we could do one of those massive set up that you have and do this face to face but zoom is not bad. >>You guys are doing very well. We have been covering you guys been covering the progress um great technology enabled business. You're on the wave of this cloud analytics you're seeing, we've seen massive changes and structural changes for the better. It's a tailwind for anyone in the cloud data business. And you also on the backdrop of all that the Covid and now the covid is looking at coming out of covid with growth strategies. People are building modern or modernizing their infrastructure and data is not just a department, it's everywhere. You guys are in the middle of this. Take us through what's the update on thought spot. What are you guys doing? What do you see the market right now? Honestly, delta variants coming coming strong but we think will be out of this soon. Where where are >>we look I think it all starts with the users like you said the consumers are demanding more and more from the business they are interacting with. You're no longer happy with being served like uh I'm gonna put you all in a bucket and then Delaware services to you. Everyone's like look look at me, I have likes and dislikes that is probably going to be different from someone that you think are similar to me. So unless you get to know me and deliver bespoke services to me, I'm gonna go somewhere else who does that And the call that the way you do that is through the data that I'm giving to you. So the worst thing you can do is to take my data and still treat me like an average and numbers and what's happening with the cloud is that it is now possible and it wasn't okay. So I grew up in India where newspapers will always have stock market summary on like one full page full of takers and prices and the way it used to work is that you wake up in the morning you look at the newspaper, I don't know if you have had the same thing and then you call your broker is based on in place of that. Can you imagine doing that now? I mean the information is at your fingertips. Hurricane IDa either is actually going to enter in Louisiana somewhere. What good is it? Yesterday morning state on this morning state if I'm trying to make a decision on whether I should pack my stuff and move away or you know finding to from home depot supply chain manager. I shouldn't figure out what should I be doing for Louisiana in the next two days, this is all about the information that's available to you. If you plan to use it and deliver better services for your consumer cloud makes it possible. >>You know, it's interesting you mentioned that the old way things were it seems so slow, then you got the 15 minute quotes, then there's now a real time. Everything has to be real time. And clearly there's two major things happening at the same time which makes exciting the business model and the competitive advantages for leaders and business to use data is critical but also on the developer side where apps are being developed if you don't have the data access, the machine learning won't work well. So as machine learning becomes really courted driving ai this modern analytics cloud product that you guys announced brings to bear kind of two major lifts the developer app modernization as well as competitive advantage for the companies that need to deploy this. So you guys have announced this modern approach analytics cloud, so to speak. What are some of the challenges that companies are having? Because you gotta, if you hit both of those you're gonna right a lot of value. What are some of the challenges for people who want to do this modern cloud? >>I think the challenge is basically all inside in the company. If you ask companies why are they failing to modernize? They will point to what's inside, it's not outside the technology is there the stack is the vendors are there, It is sometimes lack of courage at the leadership level which is a huge problem. I'll give an example. Uh, we have recently announced what we call thoughts part everywhere, which is our way of looking at how to modernize and bring the data inside that you're looking forward to where you are because Lord knows we all have enough apps on our Octa or a single sign on. The last thing you need is one more how no matter how good it is, they don't want to log into yet under their tool, whether it's thought spot or not. But the insights that you are talking about needs to be there when you need. And the difference is uh, the fundamental approach of data analytics was built on embedded model. You know what we are proposing is what we call data apps. So the difference between data apps and the typical dashboard being embedded into your analytics model is sort of like think of it. Uh newspapers telephones and the gap in between. So there is newspapers radio that is walkie talkie and telephone. They're all different and newspapers get printed and it comes to you and you read in the morning, you can talk back to it, you can drag and drop, you can change it right walkie talkies on the other hand, you know, you could have one conversation then come back to that. Whereas phone, you can have true direction conversation? They're all different if you think of embedding it is sort of like the newspaper, the information that you can't talk back. So somebody resembling something that came out monday, you're going to a board meeting on Wednesday and you look at that and make decisions. That is not enough in the new world, you just can't do that. It's not about what a lot of tools can actually answer what the real magic the real value for customers are unlocked when you ask three subsequent questions and answer them and they will come down to when you hear what you have to know. So what? Right and then what if and then the last is what next Imagine you can answer those three questions every business person every time no matter how powerful the dashboard is, they will always have the next question. What? So what? Okay the business customers are turning so what is it good, is it bad? Is it normal or the next question is like now what what do I do with it two, the ability to take all these three questions so what and what a fun. Now what? That requires true interactivity, you know, start with an intent and with an action and that is what we are actually proposing with the data apps which is only possible if you're sitting on top of a snowflake or red shift kind of really powerful and massive cloud data warehouse where the data comes and moves with agility. >>So how has this cloud data model rewritten the rules of business? Because what you're bringing up is essentially now full interactivity really getting in, getting questions that are iterating and building on context to each other. But with all this massive cloud data, people are really excited by this. How is it changing business than the rules of business? >>Yeah. So think about, I mean topical things like there is a hurricane able to enter, hit the cost of the United States. It's a moving target. No one knows exactly where it is going to be. There is only 15 models from here. 10, 10 models from Europe that's going to predict which way it's going to take every millimeter change in that map is going to have significant consequences for lives and resources and money. Right. This is true for every business. What cloud does this? Uh you have your proprietary data for example, let's say you're a bank and you have proprietary data, you're launching a new product And the propriety data was 2025 extremely valuable. But what what's not proprietary but what is available to you? Which could make that data so much more relevant if you layer them on top census data, this was a census here. The census data is updated. Do you not want that vaccination leader? We clearly know that purchasing power parity will vary based on vaccinations and county by county. But is that enough? You need to have street by street is county data enough. If you're going to open startup, Mr Starbucks? No, you probably want to know much more granular data. You wanna know traffic. Is the traffic picking up business usually an office space where people are not coming to office or is it more of a shopping mall where people are still showing all of these data is out there for you? What cloud is making it possible? Unlike the old era where you know, your data is an SFP oracle or carry later in your data center, it's available for you with a matter of clicks. What thought sport modern analytics. Cloud is a simple thing. We are the front end to bring all of this data and make sense of it. You can sit on top of any cloud data and then interact with a complete sort of freedom without compromising on security, compliance or relevance. And what happens is the analysts, the people who are responsible for bringing the data and then making sure that it is secure and delivered. They are no longer doing incremental in chart updates and dashboard updates. What they're doing is solving business problems, business people there freely interacting and making bigger decisions. That actually adds value to their consumers. This is what your customers are looking for, your users are looking for and if you're not doing it, your competitor will do that. So this is why cloud is not a choice for you. It's not an option for you. It is the only way and if you fail to take that back the other way is taking the world out of a cliff. >>Yeah, that's I love it. But I want to get this uh topic of thoughts about anywhere, but I want to just close out on this whole idea of modern cloud scale analytics. What technology under the hood do you guys see that customers should pay attention to with thought spot and in general because the scale there. So is it just machine learning? We hear data lakes, you know, you know different configurations of that. Machine learning is always thrown around like a buzzword. What new technology capability should every executive by your customer look for when it comes to really doing analytics, modern in the cloud >>analytics has to be near real time, Which means what two things speed at scale, make sure it's complex, it can deal with complexity in data structure. Data complexity is a huge problem. Now imagine doing that at scale and then delivering with performance. That means you have to rethink Look Tableau grew out of excellent worksheets that is the market leader, it is a $40 billion dollar market with the largest company having only a billion dollars in revenue. This is a massive place where the problems need to be solved differently. So the underlying technology to me are like I said, these three things, number one cannot handle the cloud scale, you will have hundreds of billions of rows of data that you brought. But when you talk about social media sentiment of customers, analysis of traffic and weather patterns, all of these publicly available valuable data. We're talking trillions of rows of data. So that is scale. Now imagine complexity. So financial sector for example, there is health care where you know some data is visible, some data is not visible, some some is public assumption not or you have to take credit data and let it on top of your marketing data. So it becomes more complex. And the last is when you answer ask a question, can you deliver with absolute confidence that you're giving the right answer With extremely high performance and to do that you have to rebuild the entire staff. You cannot take your, you know, stack that was built in 1990s and so now we can do search So search that is built for these three things with the machine learning and ai essentially helping at every step of the way so that you're not throwing all this inside directly to a human, throw it to a i engine and the ai engine curates what is relevant to you, showing it to you. And then based on your interaction with that inside, I improve my own logic so that the next interaction, the next situation is going to be significantly better. My point is you cannot take a triple a map and then try to act like this google maps. One is built presuming and zoom out and learn from you. The other one is built to give you rich information but doesn't talk back. So the staff has to be fundamentally rebuilt for the club. That's what he's doing. >>I love I love to buy direction. I love the interactivity. This topic of thought spot everywhere, which you mentioned at the beginning of this conversation, you mentioned data apps which by the way I love that concept. I want to do a drill down on that. Uh I saw data marketplace is coming somewhat working but I think it's going to get it better. I love that idea of an app um, and using as developers but you also mentioned embedded analytics. You made a comment about that. So I gotta ask you what's the difference between data apps and embedded analytics? >>Embedded analytics means that uh you know the dashboards that you love but the one that doesn't talk back to you is going to be available inside the app that you built for your other So if a supply chain app that was built by let's say accenture inside that you haven't had your dashboard without logging into tablet. Great. But what you do, what's the big deal? It is the same thing. My point is like I said every time a business user sees a chart. The questions are going to come up. The next 10 question is where the values on earth for example on Yelp imagine if you will piece about I'm hungry. I want to find a restaurant and it says go to this burrito place. It doesn't work like that. It's not good enough. The reason why yell towards is because I start with an intent. I'm hungry. Okay show me all restaurants. Okay I haven't had about it for a while. Let me see the photos. Let me read the reviews. Let me see if my friends have eaten, let me see some menu. Can I walk there? I do all of this but just what underneath it. There is a rich set of data that probably helped have their own secret source and reviews and then you have google map powering some of them. But I don't care all of that is coming together to deliver a seamless experience that satisfies my hunger. Which will be very different from if you use the same map at the same place you might go to an italian place. I go to bed right. That is the power of a data app in business people are still sitting with this. I am hungry. I gotta eat burrito. That's not how it should be in the new world. A business user should have the freedom to add exactly what the customers require looking for and solve that problem without delay. That means every application should be power and enriched with the data where you can interact and customized. That is not something that enterprise customers are actually used to and to do that you need like I said a I and search powering like the google map underneath it, but you need an app like a yelp like app, that's what we deliver. So for example, uh just last week we delivered a service now app on snowflake. You know, it just changes the game. You are thinking about customer cases. You're a large company, you have support coming from Philippines and India some places the quality is good. Some places bad dashboards are not good enough saying that okay, 17% of our customers are unhappy but we are good. That's not the world we live in. That is the tyranny of >>average, >>17% were unhappy. You got to solve for them. >>You mentioned snowflake and they had their earnings. David and I were commenting about how some of the analysts got it all wrong. And you bring up a really good point that kind of highlights the real trend. Not so much how many new customers they got. But there do what customers are doing more. Right? So, so what's happening is that you're starting to see with data apps, it does imply Softwares in there because it's it's application. So the software wrapping around data. This is interesting because people that are using the snowflakes of the world and thought spot your software and your platform, they're doing more with data. So it's not so much. I use snowflake, I use snowflake now I'm going to do more with it. That's the scale kicking. So this is an opportunity to look at that more equation. How do you talk >>with >>when you see that? Because that's the real thing is like, okay, that's I bought software as a service. But what's the more that's happening? What do you see >>that is such an important point? Even I haven't thought about it that john but you're absolutely right. That is sometimes people think of snowflake is taking care of it and no. Yeah, yes, Sarah later used to store once and zeros and they're moving it into club. That is not the point. Like I said, marketplace as an example when you are opening it up for for example, bringing the entire world's data with one click accessible to you securely. That is something you couldn't do on number two. You can have like 100 suppliers and all of a sudden you can now take a single copy of data and then make it available to all of them without actually creating multiple copies and control it differently. That's not something without cloudy, potentially could do. So things like that are fundamentally different. It is much more than like one plus one equals two. It is one plus one is 33. Like our view is that when you are re platform ng like that, you have to think from customer first. What does the customer do? The customer care that you meant from Entre into cloud or event from Teradata snowflake. No, they will care if their lives are better. Are they able to get better services are able to get it faster. That's what it is. So to me it is very simple. The destiny of an insight or data information is action, right? Imagine you're driving a car and if your car updates the gas tank every monday morning, imagine how you know, stressful your life will be for the whole week. I have to wait until next monday wanting to figure out what, whether I have enough gas or not, that's not the new world, that information is there, you need to have it real time and act on it. If you go through the Tesla you realize now that you know, I'm never worried about mileage because it is going to take me to the supercharger because it knows what I need to get to, it knows how long it is going to be, how bad the traffic is. It is synthesizing all of that to give me peace of mind. >>So this is a great >>conversation. That's a >>great question. It's a great conversation because it's really kind of brings in kind of what's happening, you see successful companies that are working with cloud scale and data like you're talking about, it's you get in there, you get the data, the data apps and all of a sudden you hit it, you hit the value equation and it's like almost like discovering oil all of a sudden you have a gusher and then people just see massive increase in value. It's not like the outcome, it's kind of there, you've got to kind of get in there and this is the scale piece and you see people having strategies to do that, they say okay we're gonna get in there, we're going to use the data to iterate but also watch the data learn where's that value, This is that more trend and and there's a successful of the developing. So I have to ask you when you, when you talk about people and culture, um that's not the way it used to be, used to be like okay I'm buying an outcome. I deployed some software mechanisms and at the end of the day there's some value there. Maybe I write it off maybe I, you know, overtime charges and some accounting thing. All changed the culture and the people in charge now are transforming the management techniques. What do you see as a successful mindset for a customer as they managed through these new paradigms and new new success formulas. >>I see a fork in leadership when it comes to courage. There are people with the spine and there are people without the spine and the ones with the spine are absolutely killing it. They are unafraid. They are not saying, look, I'm just going to stick with the incumbents that I've known for the last 20 years. Look, I used to drive a Toyota forever because I love the Toyota. And then you know after Nutanix IPO went to Lexus still Toyota because it's reliable. I don't, I'm not a huge card person. It works. But guess what? I knew they were missing Patrick and I care about the environment. I don't want to keep pushing hydrocarbons out there. It's not politics. I just don't like burning stuff into the earth atmosphere. So when Tesla came out, it's not like I love the quality I don't personally like alone mask, you know after that Thailand fiasco of cave rescue and all of that. But I can clearly see that Toyota is not going to catch up to Tesla in the next 10 years. And guess what? My loyalty is much more to doing the right thing for my family and to the world. And I switched this is what business leaders need to know. They can't simply say, well, tabloid as search to. They're not as good as thought sports. We'll just stick with them because they have done with us. That's what weak leaders do and customers suffer for that. What I see like the last two weeks ago when I was in new york. I met with them. A business leader for one of the largest banks in the world with 25,000 people reporting to him. The person walks into the room wearing shorts and t shirts uh, and was so full of energy and so full of excitement. I thought I'm going to learn from him and he was asking questions about how we do our business in bed and learning from me. I was humbled, I was flawed and I realized that's what a modern business leader looks like. Even if it is one of the largest and oldest banks in the world, that's the kind of people are making big difference and it doesn't matter how all the companies, how old their data is they have mainframes or not. I hear this excuses all the type of er, mainframes, we can't move, we have COBOL going on. And guess what? You keep talking about that and hear leaders like him are going to transform those companies And next thing you know, there are some of the most modern companies in the world. >>Well certainly they, we know that they don't have any innovation strategy or any kind of R and D or anything going on that could be caught flat footed in the companies that didn't have that going on, didn't have the spine or the, the, the vision to, to at least try the cloud before Covid when Covid hit, those companies are really either going out of business or they're hurting the people who were in the cloud really move their teams into the cloud quicker to take advantage of uh, the environment that they had to. So this became a skill issue. So, so this is a big deal. This is a big deal. And having the right skills are people skilled, it will be a, I both be running everything for them. What is your take on that? >>This is an important question. You can't just say you got to do more things or new things and not take care of all things. You know, there's only 89, 10 hours so you can work in their uh, analysts in the Atlantic species constantly if your analysts are sitting there and making incremental dashboards and reports change every day and then backlog is growing for 56 days and the users are unhappy because you're not getting answers and then you ask them to go to new things. It's just not going to be enough and you can hire your way out of it. You have to make sure that if you say that I have 20 100 x product already, I don't want 21st guess what? Sometimes to be five products, you need to probably go to 21 you got to do new things to actually take away the gunk off the old and in that context, the re skilling starts with unburdening, unburdening of menial task, unburned routine task. There is nothing more frustrating than making reports and dashboards that people don't even use And 90% of the time analysts, they're amazing experiences completely wasted when they're making incremental change to tabloid reports. I kind of believe thought spot and self service on top of cloud data takes away all of that without compromising security and then you invest the experienced people. Business experience is so critical. So don't just go and hire university students and say, okay, they'll go come and quote everything the experience that they have in knowing what the business is about and what it matters to their users, that domain experience and then uplevel them res kill them and then bring fresh energy to challenge that and then make sure there is a culture that allows that to happen. These three things. That's why I said leadership is not just about hiring event of firing another, it's about cultivating a culture and living that value by saying, look if I am wrong, call me, call me out in public because I want to show you how I deal with conflict. So this is I love this thing because when I see these large companies where they're making these massive changes so fast, it inspires you to say you know what if they can do it, anyone can do it. But then I also see if the top leadership is not aligned to that. They are just trying to retire without the stock tanking too much and let me just get through two more years. The entire company suffers. >>So that's great to chat with you got great energy, love your business, love the energy, love the focus. Um it's a new wave you're on. It's a big wave um and it's it's relevant, it's cool and relevant and it's the modern way and people have to have a spine to be successful if not for the faint of heart, but the rewards are there if you get this right. This is what I I love about this new environment. Um so I gotta ask you just to kind of close it out. How would you plug the company for the folks watching that might want to engage with you guys. What's the elevator pitch? What's the positioning? How would you describe thought spot in a bumper sticker or in a positioning statement. Take a minute to talk about that. >>Remember martin Anderson said that software is eating the world, I think it is now time to update that data is eating everything including software. If you don't have a way to turn data into bespoke action for your customers. Guess what? Your customers are gonna go somewhere where they that's happening right? You may not be in the data business but the data company is going to take your business. Thought spot is very simple. We want to be the friend tent for all cloud data when it comes to structured because that's where business value numbers is world satisfaction and dissatisfaction for reduces allying it is important to move data to action and thought Spot is the pioneer in doing that through search and I >>I really think you guys want something very powerful. Looking forward to chatting with you at the upcoming eight of a startup showcase. I think data is a developer mindset. It's an app, it's part of everything. It will. Everyone's a data company, everyone is a media company. Data is everything you guys are on something really big and people got a program it with it, make experiences whether it's simple scripts, point and click. That is a new kind of developer out there. You guys are tapping into it. Great stuff. Thank >>you for coming on. Thank you john it's good to talk to you. >>Okay. It's a cube conversation here in Palo alto California were remote. We're virtual. That's the cube virtual. I'm sean for your host. Thanks for watching. Mhm. Mhm

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante as you well know by now the cloud is about shifting i.t labor to more strategic initiatives or as andy jassy laid out years ago removing the undifferentiated heavy lifting associated with deploying and managing i.t infrastructure cloud is also about changing the operating model and rapidly scaling a business operation or a company often overlooked with cloud however is the innovation piece of the puzzle a main source of that innovation is venture funded startup companies that have brilliant technologists who are mission driven and have a vision to solve really hard problems and enter a large market at scale to disrupt it hello everyone and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we're pleased to welcome a special guest and author of the elite 80. a report that details the hottest privately held cyber security and i.t infrastructure companies in the world eric suppenger is that author and joins us today from jmp securities eric welcome to the cube thanks for being here thank you very much dave i'm uh i'm looking forward to uh to having a discussion here with you yeah me too this is going to be great so let's dive right into the elite 80. first if you could tell us about jmp securities and fill us in on the report its history your approach to picking the 80 companies out of thousands of choices sure so jmp is a middle markets investment bank we're a full full-service investment bank based in san francisco we were founded in 2000 and we focus on technology health care financial services and real estate i've been with jmp since 2011. um i've uh i've i cover uh cyber security companies public companies uh i cover uh it infrastructure companies uh more broadly and um we have having been based here in san francisco i've long kept uh a good dialogue with uh private companies uh that that compete with the public companies that i cover and so um about seven years ago i i started uh developing this uh this report which is really designed to highlight uh emerging uh private companies that uh that i think are are well positioned to be leaders in their respective markets and uh and over time we've um we've built the list up to about 80 companies and uh and we publish this report every year uh it's designed to uh to keep tabs on on the companies that are doing well and uh and we rotate about uh about 15 to 20 to 25 percent of the companies uh out of the report every year either as they get acquired or they do an ipo or um uh they uh they if we think that they are slowing and others are getting a little bit more uh more exciting and you talk directly to the companies that's part of your methodology as well you do a lot of background research digging into funding but you also talk to the executives at these companies correct yes for the most part we uh we try to talk to the ceos at least the cfos the object here is to build a a relationship with these companies so that we have some good insights into uh into how they're doing and and how the market trends are evolving as they relate to those companies in particular some of the some of the dynamics that go into us selecting companies is one we do have to talk to the management teams uh two we uh we we base our decisions on who we include on how the companies are performing on how their competitors are uh are are discussing those companies their performance uh how other industry contacts talk about those companies and then we we track their hiring and uh and and how they've uh you know other metrics that we can uh we can gauge them by got it okay so i dug into the report a little bit and tried to summarize a few key takeaways so let's take a look at those and if if you allow me just set up the points and then and ask you to add some color so the first two things that really you know jumped out i want to comment on are the perspectives of the technology companies and then of course the other side is the buyers so it seems that the pandemic really got startups to sharpen their focus i remember talking to a number of vcs early on in the shutdown and they were all over their portfolio companies to reset their icp their ideal customer profile and sharpen their uvp their unique value proposition and they wanted them to do that specifically in the context of the pandemic and the new reality and then on the buy side let's face it if you weren't a digital business you were out of business so picking up on those two thoughts eric what can you share with us in terms of the findings that you have well that's that's very uh consistent with what we had found uh basically um when the pandemic first when the lockdown came uh in march we reached out to quite a few companies and industry contacts at that time feedback was uh you know it was uh it was a period of great uncertainty and a lot of a lot of budgets were were tightened pretty quickly but it didn't take very long and a lot of these companies uh you know having been uh innovation engines and and emerging players what they found was that uh the broader market quickly adopted uh digital transformation in response to the pandemic basically that was how they they uh facilitated uh keeping their their doors open so to speak and so um the ones that were able to uh to leverage uh need for emerging technologies because of an acceleration in digital transformation uh they they really stepped up and and quite a few of these companies they kept hiring they kept uh their sales uh did very well and uh and ultimately um a lot of the vcs that had been uh putting on the brakes uh they actually stepped up and uh and and continued funding uh pretty generously yeah we've got some data on that that we wanna look into so thank you for that now let's take a look at some of the the specific date of the study just break that down the elite 80 raised more than three billion dollars last year eclipsing the previous highs in your studies of 2019 and then a big portion of that capital went to pretty small number only 10 of the 80 firms and and most of that went to cyber security plays so what do you make of these numbers especially you know given your history with with this group of elite companies and the high concentration this year this past year so one of the trends that we've seen in the public in the public market or the ipo market is um companies are are waiting until they're a little bit more mature than they used to be so what we've seen is um the the funding for companies uh the the larger rounds are far larger than they used to be these companies typically are waiting until they're of size you know maybe now they're waiting to be uh 200 million uh in annual salary in annual revenues versus a 100 million before and so they are consuming quite a bit the larger rounds are are much bigger than they used to be um in the in the most recent uh report that we published we had uh one round that was over half a billion and another one that was over 400 million and if you go back just a couple of few years ago a large round was over 100 million and you didn't get too many that were over 200 million so that's that's been a distinct change and and i think that's not necessarily just a function of the pandemic but i think the pandemic caused caused some companies to kind of step up the size of their rounds uh and so there were a handful of uh very large rounds uh certainly bigger than what we've ever seen before yeah those are great observations i mean you're right it was 100 million used to be the magic number to go public and now you get so much late money coming in locking in maybe smaller gains but giving that company you know a little more time to get their act together pre-ipo let's take a look at where the money went you know talk about follow the money and eric you and your team you segmented that three billion dollars into a number of different categories as i said most of it go into cyber security uh categories like application security is assessment and risk there's endpoint endpoint boomed during the pandemic same with identity and this chart really shows those categories that you created to better understand these dynamics and sort of figure out where the money went how did you come up with these these categories and what does this data tell you so these categories were basically uh homegrown these are how i um i think of these companies um it's a little bit of uh pulling some information out of uh the likes of gartner but uh for the most part this was how i how i conceptualize the landscape uh in my mind um the interesting thing to me is you know so a lot of that data is skewed by a few large transactions so um you know if you if you think about the the the allocation of those uh those different categories and and the uh investments in those categories it's it's skewed by large transactions and what was most interesting to me was one the application security space is a space that had quite a few additional smaller rounds and i think that's one that's pretty interesting going forward and then the one that was a surprise to me more than that was the data management um outside of cyber security uh data management's a space that's getting uh a lot more attention and uh and it's getting um uh some pretty good uh growth so that's a space that we're uh we're paying some good good attention to as well yeah that's interesting i mean of course data management means a lot of different things to a lot of different people and vc's throwing money at it maybe trying to define it and then and then the the the ai ops and and the that data management piece you know took a took a portion of it but wow the the cyber guys really are are killing it and now as we mentioned ten companies sucked up the lion's share of of the funding and this next chart shows that concentration of those 10 investments so eric some big numbers here one trust secured more than a half a billion dollars four others nabbed more than a quarter billion in funding give us your thoughts on this what do you make of that high concentration well um i i think this is a function of companies that are waiting uh longer than they used to um they're these these companies are getting to be of considerable scale i mean titanium would be a good example that's a company that could have gone public years ago and uh and i don't think they're particularly eager to get out the door uh they provide liquidity to their previous investors by raising money and uh and and buying those shares back um and so they uh they basically uh just continue to uh to grow uh without the uh the burden or or the um uh the demands that being a public company create um so there's this that's that's really a function of of companies just waiting longer before they get out the door got it now here's another view of that that data the so the left side of this chart uh that we we want to show you next um gives you a sense of the size of the companies the revenue in the elite 80 and you know most of these companies have broken through the 100 million dollar revenue mark as you say uh and they're they're still private and so you can see the breakdown and then the right-hand side of the chart shows the most active investors we just pulled out those with three or more transactions and it's it's interesting to see the players there and of course you've got some strategics you got city in there you've got cisco along with a little bit of p and e private equity action maybe your thoughts on on on this data so so to give you a little flavor around the uh the size of these companies when we first started publishing this report a little bit of the goal was to try to keep those categories relatively equal and as you can see they've skewed uh far to the left uh towards the uh to the larger revenue stream you know size so that's that just goes to the point that um uh the the companies that uh you know that are getting that a lot of these private companies uh they're they're of saw considerable size before they uh they really go out the door and and i think that's a reflection of um of the caliber of uh of or the quality of investments that uh that are out there today these are companies that have built very mature businesses and they're not going into the market until um until they can demonstrate uh high confidence and uh and consistency in their performance yeah i mean you i remember when when cloudera took that massive i think it was the 750 billion a million dollar investment from uh from intel you know way back when they that bridged them to ipo and that was sort of if i recall started that that trend and then now you get a ipo last year like snowflake which is price to perfection and you got guys that really know how to do this they've done it a number of times and so it really is somewhat changed that that dynamic uh for ipos which of course came booming back it was so quiet there for so many years but let's look into these markets a bit um i want to talk about the security space and the i.t infrastructure space and here's a chart from optiv which is one of the elite 80 ironically and we've shared this with with our audience before and the point of this is that the cyber security spaces it's highly fragmented we've reported on this a lot it's got hundreds and hundreds of companies in there it's just mosaic of solutions so very complicated and bespoke sets of tooling and combine that with a lack of skilled expertise you know csos tell us the lack of talent is their biggest challenge makes it a really dynamic market and eric this is part of the reason why vcs they want in so the takeaway i get from that chart is we have a lot of um we still have a great need for best of breed um digital transformation uh cloud mobile all these trends are creating such a disruption that there's still a great opportunity for somebody that can deliver a uh you know a real best of the best of breed uh solution uh in spite of uh all the challenges that uh id it departments are having with trying to uh to meet you know security requirements and things like that uh the the world has embraced uh you know digital delivery and uh you are your success is oftentimes dependent on your your digital differentiation and if that's the case then there's always going to be opportunity for a better technology out there so that's that in the end is uh is why uh optiv has a uh a line card that's uh as as long as you can read it i'm glad you brought the point about best of breeze it's an age-old debate in the industry it's do we go best of breed or do we go you know integrated suites you know you look at a company like microsoft obviously that that works very well for them uh companies like cisco but so this next uh set of data we're gonna bring in some etr customer spending data and see where the momentum is and i think it'll really underscore the points that you're making there in terms of best of breed this chart shares a popular view that we like to to share with our community on the vertical axis is net score or that's spending velocity and the horizontal axis shows market share or pervasiveness in the data as we've said before anything above 40 percent that red line on the vertical axis is considered elevated and you can see a lot of companies in cyber security are above that mark now a couple points i want to make here before we bring eric back in first is the market it's fragmented but it's pretty large at over 100 billion dollars depending on which research firm you look at it's growing at you know the low double digits so so nice growth is putting on 10 billion dollars a year into that number and there are some big pure plays like palo alto networks and fortinet but the market includes some other large whales like cisco uh they've built up a sizeable security business microsoft microsoft's in most markets and serves its you know software customers so but you can see how crowded this market is now we've superimposed in the red recent valuations for some of the companies and and the other point we want to make is there's some big numbers here and some divergence between us eric was saying the the best of breed and the integrated suites and the pandemic as we've talked about a lot is fueled a shift in cyber strategies toward endpoint identity and cloud and you can see that in crowdstrike's 50 billion plus valuation octa another best of breed 34 billion dollars in identity they just bought off zero and paid four and a half billion dollars for auth0 to get access to the developer community z scaler at 28 billion proof point is going private at a 12 billion dollar number so you can see why vcs are pouring money into this market some really attractive valuations eric what are your thoughts on this data so my interpretation is that's that's just further validation that uh that these security markets are uh are getting disrupted and uh and the truth of the matter is there's only one um really well positioned uh platform player in there uh uh palo alto the rest of them are are platforms within their respective uh security technology space but uh you know there's there's not very many um you know broad security solution providers today and the reason for that is because we've got such a uh transformation going on uh across uh technology that the need for best of breed is uh is is getting recognized uh day in day out yeah you're right palo alto they're they csos love to work with palo alto they're kind of the high-end gold standard but and we reported last year on the divergence in valuations between fortinet and palo alto networks fortinet was doing a better job you know pivoting to the cloud we said palo alto will get its act together it did but then you see these pure play best of breeds really you know doing well so now let's take a look at the it infrastructure space and it's it's quite different in terms of the dynamics of the market so here's that same view of the etr data and we've cut it by uh three categories we cut on networking servers and storage and this is a very large market it's it's it's over 200 billion dollars but it's much more of an oligopoly in that you've got great concentration at the top you've got some really big companies like cisco and dell which is spinning out vmware so we're going to unlock you know more value of the core dell company dell's valuation is 79 billion and that includes its 80 ownership in vmware so you do the math and figure out what core dell is worth hpe is much smaller it's notable that its valuation is comparable to netapp netapp's around you know one-fifth the size of revenue-wise uh hpe now eric arista they stand out as the lone player that's having some success clearly against cisco what are your thoughts on on the infrastructure space so so a couple things i'll take away from that now first off uh you mentioned arista arista is a bit of an anomaly um a switching company you know a networking company that is in that upper echelon like you've pointed out above 40 percent it is it is unique and and basically they kind of cracked the code they figured out how to beat cisco at cisco's core competency which is traditionally switching switching and routing and they they did that by delivering a very differentiated uh uh hardware product um that that they were able to tap into some markets that uh that even cisco hasn't been able to open up and and those would be the hyperscale uh hyperscale you know hosting vendors like uh google and facebook and microsoft but i would i would put i would put arista kind of in a in a unique situation the other thing that i'll just point out that i think is an interesting takeaway from the um from the the the slide that you showed is there are some uh infrastructure or what i would consider is bordering on data management type companies i mean you look at uh rubric you look at cohesity and nutanix veeam they're they're all kind of bubbling up there and pure storage and i think that comes back to what i was mentioning earlier where there is some pretty interesting innovation going on in data management which has traditionally not had a lot of innovation so i would bet you those names would have bubbled up just in the last uh year or two where that's been a market that hasn't had a lot of innovation and and now there's some interesting things coming down the pipe you know that's interesting comments that you make in there because if you think back to sort of last decade arista obviously broke out the only two other companies in the in the core infrastructure space and this was a hardware game historically but it's obviously becoming a software game but take a look at pure storage and nutanix you can see their valuations at five billion and seven point four billion dollars respectively uh and then to your point cohesity you got them at 3.7 billion just did a recent you know round rubric 3.3 billion that's from 2019 and so you know presumably that's a higher valuation now veeam got taken out last january at five billion by uh inside capital uh and so i think they're doing very well and they're probably uh up from that and susa is going public at uh at a reported seven billion dollar valuation so quite a bit different dynamic in the infrastructure space so eric i want to bring it back to the elite 80 in in in in startups in general my first question to you is is what do you look for from successful startups to make this elite 80 list so a few factors first off uh their performance is uh is is one of the primary uh situations if it's a company that's not growing we'll we'll probably pull it from the list um i would say it is also very much a function of my perception of the quality of management uh we we do meet with all these management teams um if we feel like uh they're they're they're putting together a uh you know a um a leadership team that's gonna be around for a long time and they've got a product position that's uh pretty attractive uh those would certainly be two key aspects of what i look for beyond that uh certainly feedback that we get from competitors uh feedback that we get from industry contacts like resellers and then then i'd also just say my enthusiasm for their respective market that they're in if it's a a market that i think is is going to be difficult or flat or not very interesting then then that would certainly be a a reason to to not include them uh conversely even if it's a small company if it's if it's a sector that i think is going to be uh around for quite a while and it's very differentiated uh then we'll include um a lot of the smaller companies too well a good example that's like a weka i mean i don't want to i don't want to go into these companies but two because we believe we 80 companies are going to leave somebody else but that that's a good example of a smaller company that looks to be disruptive um how should enterprise customers the buyers do you think evaluate and filter startups you have any sense of that well um a couple things that i struggle with that that would be uh you know something that's a lot more readily available to them is uh is just the quality of the product i mean that's obviously uh why why they're looking at it but uh if it's a uh if it's a company that's got a a unique product that uh is is built uh you know that that can that can that works that would be the starting point then then beyond that it's also is it a management team is is the behavior of the company something that uh reflects a management team that's uh that's that's you know a high quality management team if they if they you know are responsive if they're following up if they're not trying to pull in business uh quickly if they're priced appropriately uh metrics like that would certainly be um key aspects that would be readily available to uh to the you know to the the buyers of technology beyond that um you know i think the viability of that market is going to be uh a key aspect as to whether or not that company is going to be around even if it's a good company if uh if it's a highly competitive uh market that's going to have some big big players that can kind of integrate it and to make it a feature across other other product lines then that's going to make it a a tough a tough road to to go for a start-up these days you know the other thing i wanted to to talk about was the risks and the rewards of working with with startup companies and i've had i've had cios and and enterprise architects tell me that they'll when when they have to do an rfp they'll pull out the gartner magic quadrant they'll always you know pick a couple in the top right just to cover their butts but they many say you know what we also pick some of those those in the challenger space because because that are that are really interesting to us and and we run them through the paces and we manage those risks we don't we don't run the company on them but it helps us find these diamonds in the rough i mean think about you know in the in this in the second part of last decade if you picked a snowflake you might have been able to get ahead of some of your competition things like data sharing or or maybe you found that that well you know what octa is going to help me with my identity in in a new way and you're going to be better prepared to be a digital business but do you have any thoughts on how uh people should manage those risks and and how they should think about the upside i don't i don't think today um a a you know a company can work today using legacy technologies i i think the risk the greater risk is falling behind from a a digital transformation perspective this this era i think the pandemic is probably the best proof point of this um you can't you can't go with just a uh a traditional legacy architecture in a in in a key aspect of your business and so the startups um i i think you've got to take the quote-unquote risk of working with a startup that's uh you know that's got a viability concern or sustainability concern uh the risk of of having a um uh an i.t infrastructure that's inadequate is uh is a far greater risk from my perspective so i think that the startups right now are are are in a very strong position and they're well funded that's the last question i wanted to talk about is how will startups kind of penetrate the enterprise in this modern era i mean you know this is really a software world and software is this sort of capital efficient business but yet you're seeing companies raise hundreds of millions of dollars i mean that's not even absurd these days you see companies go to ipo that have raised over a billion dollars and much of that if not most of it goes to promotion and go to market uh so so how maybe you could give us your perspectives on how you see startups getting into the enterprise in these sectors so i one of the really interesting things that we've seen in the last couple years is a lot of changes to sales models and and if you look at the mid market the ability to leverage viral sales models uh has been wildly successful for some companies um it's been um you know a great strategy uh there's a public company ubiquity that did a uh has built a multi-billion dollar uh you know business on on without without a sales organization so there's some pretty interesting um directions that i think sales and go to market is going to uh incur over the over the coming years uh traditional enterprise sales i think are still uh pretty standard today but i i think that the efficiency of um of you know social networking and and uh and and what would the the delivery of uh of products on on a digital for in a digital format is going to change the way that we do sales so i think i think there's a lot of efficiencies that are going to come in uh in sales over the coming years that's interesting because then you'll you know i i think you're right and and and instead of just just pouring money at promotion maybe get more efficient there and pour money in into engineering because that really is the long-term sustainable value that these companies are going to create right yeah i i would absolutely agree with that and um again if you look at the you know if you look at the charts of the well-established players that that you had mentioned those companies are where they are that the ones at the top are where they are because of their technology i mean it's it's not because of uh their go to market it's it's it's because they have something that other people can't uh can't replicate right well eric hey it's been great having you on today thanks so much for joining us really appreciate your time well dave i greatly appreciate it uh it's been a lot of fun so uh so thank you all right hey go get the elite 80 report all you got to do is search jmp elite 80 and it'll it'll come up there's a there's a lot of data out there so it's really a worthwhile reference tool and uh so thank you everybody for watching remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen you can check out etr's website at etr dot plus and we also publish weekly a full report on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can email me david.velante at siliconangle.com or dm me on twitter at divalante hit up hit our linkedin post and really appreciate those comments this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week everybody stay safe and we'll see you next time you

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante the pandemic not only accelerated the shift to digital but also highlighted a rush of cyber criminal sophistication collaboration and chaotic responses by virtually every major company in the planet the solar winds hack exposed supply chain weaknesses and so-called island hopping techniques that are exceedingly difficult to detect moreover the will and aggressiveness of well-organized cyber criminals has elevated to the point where incident responses are now met with counterattacks designed to both punish and extract money from victims via ransomware and other criminal activities the only upshot is the cyber security market remains one of the most enduring and attractive investment sectors for those that can figure out where the market is headed and which firms are best positioned to capitalize hello everyone and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll provide our quarterly update of the security industry and share new survey data from etr and thecube community that will help you navigate through the maze of corporate cyber warfare we'll also share our thoughts on the game of 3d chest that octa ceo todd mckinnon is playing against the market now we all know this market is complicated fragmented and fast moving and this next chart says it all it's an interactive graphic from optiv a denver colorado based si that's focused on cyber security they've done some really excellent research and put together this awesome taxonomy and mapped vendor names therein and this helps users navigate the complex security landscape and there are over a dozen major sectors high-level sectors within the security taxonomy in nearly 60 sub-sectors from monitoring vulnerability assessment identity asset management firewalls automation cloud data center sim threat detection and intelligent endpoint network and so on and so on and so on but this is a terrific resource and can help you understand where players fit and help you connect the dots in the space now let's talk about what's going on in the market the dynamics in this crazy mess of a landscape are really confusing sometimes now since the beginning of cyber time we've talked about the increasing sophistication of the adversary and the back and forth escalation between good and evil and unfortunately this trend is unlikely to stop here's some data from carbon black's annual modern bank heist report this is the fourth and of course now vmware's brand highlights the carbon black study since the acquisition and it catalyzed the creation of vmware's cloud security division destructive malware attacks according to the recent study are up 118 percent from last year now one major takeaway from the report is that hackers aren't just conducting wire fraud they are 57 of the bank surveyed saw an increase in wire fraud but the cyber criminals are also targeting non-public information such as future trading strategies this allows the bad guys to front run large block trades and profit it's become very lucrative practice now the prevalence of so-called island hopping is up 38 from already elevated levels this is where a virus enters a company's supply chain via a partner and then often connects with other stealthy malware downstream these techniques are more common where the malware will actually self-form with other infected parts of the supply chain and create actions with different signatures designed to identify and exfiltrate valuable information it's a really complex problem of major concern is that 63 of banking respondents in the study reported that responses to incidents were then met with retaliation designed to intimidate or initiate ransomware attacks to extract a final pound of flesh from the victim notably the study found that 75 percent of csos reported to the cio which many feel is not the right regime the study called for a rethinking of the right cyber regime where the cso has increased responsibility in a direct reporting line to the ceo or perhaps the co with greater exposure to boards of directors so many thanks to vmware and tom kellerman specifically for sharing this information with us this past week great work by your team now some of the themes that we've been talking about for several quarters are shown in the lower half of the chart cloud of course is the big driver thanks to work from home and the pandemic to pandemic and the interesting corollary of course is we see a rapid rethinking of endpoint and identity access management and the concept of zero trust in a recent esg survey two-thirds of respondents said that their use of cloud computing necessitated a change in how they approach identity access management now as shown in the chart from optiv the market remains highly fragmented and m a is of course way up now based on our research it looks like transaction volume has increased more than 40 percent just in the last five months so let's dig into the m a the merger and acquisition trends for just a moment we took a five month snapshot and we were able to count about 80 deals that were completed in that time frame those transactions represented more than 20 billion dollars in value some of the larger ones are highlighted here the biggest of course being the toma bravo taking proof point private for a 12 plus billion dollar price tag the stock went from the low 130s and is trading in the low 170s based on 176 dollar per share offer so there's your arbitrage folks go for it perhaps the more interesting acquisition was auth 0 by octa for 6.5 billion which we're going to talk about more in a moment there's more private equity action we saw as insight bought armis and iot security play and cisco shelled out 730 million dollars for imi mobile which is more of an adjacency to cyber but it's going to go under cisco's security and applications business run by g2 patel but these are just the tip of the iceberg some of the themes that we see connecting the dots of these acquisitions are first sis like accenture atos and wipro are making moves in cyber to go local they're buying secops expertise as i say locally in places like france germany netherlands canada and australia that last mile that belly-to-belly intimate service israel israeli-based startups chalked up five acquired companies in the space over the last five months also financial services firms are getting into the act with goldman and mastercard making moves to own its own part of the stack themselves to combat things like fraud and identity theft and then finally numerous moves to expand markets octa with zero crowdstrike buying a log management company palo alto picking up devops expertise rapid seven shoring up its kubernetes chops tenable expanding beyond insights and going after identity interesting fortinet filling gaps in a multi-cloud offering sale point extending to governance risk and compliance grc zscaler picked up an israeli firm to fill gaps in access control and then vmware buying mesh 7 to secure modern app development and distribution services so tons and tons of activity here okay so let's look at some of the etr data to put the cyber market in context etr uses the concept of market share it's one of the key metrics which is a measure of pervasiveness in the data set so for each sector it calculates the number of respondents for that sector divided by the total to get a sense for how prominent the sector is within the cio and i.t buyer communities okay this chart shows the full etr sector taxonomy with security highlighted across three survey periods april last year january this year in april this year now you wouldn't expect big moves in market share over time so it's relatively stable by sector but the big takeaway comes from observing which sectors are most prominent so you see that red line that dotted line imposed at the sixty percent level you can see there are only six sectors above that line and cyber security is one of them okay so we know that security is important in a large market but this puts it in the context of the other sectors however we know from previous breaking analysis episodes that despite the importance of cyber and the urgency catalyzed by the pandemic budgets unfortunately are not unlimited and spending is bounded it's not an open checkbook for csos as shown in this chart this is a two-dimensional graphic showing market share in the horizontal axis or pervasiveness and net score in the vertical axis net score is etr's measurement of spending velocity and we've superimposed a red line at 40 percent because anything over 40 percent we consider extremely elevated we've filtered and limited the number of sectors to simplify the graphic and you can see in the sectors that we've highlighted only the big four four are above that forty percent line ai containers rpa and cloud they exceed that sort of forty percent magic water line information security you can see that is highlighted and it's respectable but it competes for budget with other important sectors so this of course creates challenges for organization because not only are they strapped for talent as we've reported they like everyone else in it face ongoing budget pressures research firm cybersecurity ventures estimates that in 2021 6 trillion dollars worldwide will be lost on cyber crime conversely research firm canalis pegs security spending somewhere around 60 billion dollars annually idc has it higher around 100 billion so either way we're talking about spending between one to one point six percent annually of how much the bad guys are taking out that's peanuts really when you consider the consequences so let's double click into the cyber landscape a bit and further look at some of the companies here's that same x y graphic with the company's etr captures from respondents in the cyber security sector that's what's shown on the chart here now the usefulness of the red lines is 20 percent on the horizontal indicates the largest presence in the survey and the magic 40 percent line that we talked about earlier shows those firms with the most elevated momentum only microsoft and palo alto exceed both high water marks of course splunk and cisco are prominent horizontally and there are numerous companies to the left of the 20 percent line and many above that 40 percent high water mark on the vertical axis now in the bottom left quadrant that includes many of the legacy names that have been around for a long time and there are dozens of companies that show spending momentum on their platforms i.e above single digits so that picture is like the first one we showed you very very crowded space but so let's filter it a bit and only include companies in the etr survey that had at least a hundred responses so an n of a hundred or greater so it's a little easy to read but still it's kind of crowded when you think about it okay so same graphic and we've superimposed the data that determined the plot position over in the bottom right there so it's net score and shared n including only companies with more than 100 n so what does this data tell us about the market well microsoft is dominant as always it seems in all dimensions but let's focus on that red line for a moment some of the names that we've highlighted over the past two years show very well here first i want to talk about palo alto networks pre-covet as you might recall we highlighted the valuation divergence between palo alto and fortinet and we said fortinet was executing better on its cloud strategy and palo alto was at the time struggling with the transition especially with its go to market and its sales force compensation and really refreshing its portfolio but we told you that we were bullish on palo alto networks at the time because of its track record and the fact that cios consistently told us that they saw palo alto as a thought leader in the space that they wanted to work with they said that palo alto was the gold standard the best especially larger company cisos so that gave us confidence that palo alto a very well-run company was going to get its act together and perform better and palo alto has just done just that as we expected they've done very well and they've been rapidly moving customers to the next generation of platforms and we're very impressed by the company's execution and the stock has generally reflected that now some other names that hit our radar and the etr data a couple of years ago continue to perform well crowdstrike z-scaler sales sail point and cloudflare a cloudflare just reported and beat earnings but was off the stock fell on headwinds for tech overall the big rotation but the company is doing very well and they're growing rapidly and they have momentum as you can see from the etr data and we put that double star around proof point to highlight that it was worthy of fetching 12 and a half billion dollars from private equity firm so nice exit there supporting the continued control consolidation trend that we've predicted in cyber security now let's turn our attention to octa and auth zero this is where it gets interesting and is a clever play for octa we think and we want to drill into it a bit octa is acquiring auth zero for big money why well we think todd mckinnon octa ceo wants to run the table on identity and then continue to expand his tam he has to do that to justify his lofty valuation so octa's ascendancy around identity and single sign sign-on is notable the fragmented pictures that we've shown you they scream out for simplification and trust and that's what octa brings but it competes with some major players most notably microsoft with active directory so look of course microsoft is going to dominate in its massive customer base but the rest of the market that's like jump ball it's wide open and we think mckinnon saw the opportunity to go dominate that sector now octa comes at this from an enterprise perspective bringing top-down trust to the equation and throwing a big blanket over all the discrete sas platforms and unifying employee access octa's timing was perfect it was founded in 2009 just as the massive sasification trend was happening around crm and hr and service management and cloud etc but the one thing that octa didn't have that auth 0 does is serious developer chops while octa was crushing it with its enterprise sales strategy auth 0 was laser focused on developers and building a bottoms up approach to identity by acquiring auth0 octa can dominate both sides of the barbell and then capture the fat middle so yes it's a pricey acquisition but in our view it's a great move by mckinnon now i don't know mckinnon personally but last week i spoke to arun shrestha who's the ceo of security specialist beyond id they're a platinum services partner of octa and there a zero trust expert he worked for octa for a number of years and shared with me a bit about mckinnon's style and think big approach arun said something that caught my attention he said firewalls used to be the perimeter now people are and while that's self-serving to octa and probably beyond id it's true people apps and data are the new perimeter and they're not in one location and that's the point now unfortunately i had lined up an interview with dia jolly who was the chief product officer at octa in a cube alum for this past week knowing that we were running this segment in this episode but she unfortunately fell ill the day of our interview and had to cancel but i want to follow up with her and understand how she's thinking about connecting the dots with auth 0 with devs and enterprises and really test our thesis there this is a really interesting chess match that's going on let's look a little deeper into that identity space this chart here shows some of the major identity players it has some of the leaders in the identity market and there's a breakdown of etr's net score now net score comprises five elements the lime green is we're adding the platform new the forest green is we're spending six percent or more relative to last year the gray is flat send plus or minus flat spend plus or minus five percent the pinkish is spending less and the bright red is where exiting the platform retiring now you subtract the red from the green and that gets you the result for net score which you can see superimposed on the right hand chart at the bottom that first column there the far column is shared in which informs and indicates the number of responses and is a proxy for presence in the market oh look at the top two players in terms of spending momentum now sales sale point is right there but auth 0 combined with octa's distribution channel will extend octa's lead significantly in our view and then there's microsoft now just a caveat this includes all of microsoft's security offerings not just identity but it's there for context and cyber arc as well includes its acquisition of adaptive but also other parts of cyberarks portfolio so you can see some of the other names that are there many of which you'll find in the gartner magic quadrant for identity and as we said we really like this move by octa it combines positive market forces with lead offerings from very well-run companies that have winning dna and passionate people now to further emphasize emphasize what what's happening here take a look at this this chart shows etr data for octa within sale point and cyber arc accounts out of the 230 cyber and sale point customers in the data set there are 81 octa accounts that's a 35 overlap and the good news for octa is that within that base of sale point in cyber arc accounts octa is shown by the net score line that green line has a very elevated spending and momentum and the kicker is if you read the fine print in the right hand column etr correctly points out that while sailpoint and cyberarc have long been partners with octa at the recent octane 21 event octa's big customer event the company announced that it was expanding into privileged access management pam and identity governance hello and welcome to coopetition in the 2020s now our current thinking is that this bodes very well for octa and cyberark and sailpoint well they're going to have to make some counter moves to fend off the onslaught that is coming now let's wrap up with what has become a tradition in our quarterly security updates looking at those two dimensions of net score and market share we're going to see which companies crack the top 10 for both measures within the etr data set we do this every quarter so here on the left we have the top 20 sorted by net score or spending momentum and on the right we sort by shared n so again top 20 which informs shared end and forms the market share metric or presence in the data set that red horizontal lines those two lines on each separate the top 10 from the remaining 10 within those top 20. in our method what we do is we assign four stars to those companies that crack the top ten for both metrics so again you see microsoft palo alto networks octa crowdstrike and fortinet fortinet by the way didn't make it last quarter they've kind of been in and out and on the bubble but you know this company is very strong and doing quite well only the other four did last quarter there was same four last quarter and we give two stars to those companies that make it in both categories within the top 20 but didn't make the top 10. so cisco splunk which has been steadily decelerating from a spending momentum standpoint and z-scaler which is just on the cusp you know we really like z-scaler and the company has great momentum but that's the methodology it is what it is now you can see we kept carbon black on the rightmost chart it's like kind of cut off it's number 21 only because they're just outside looking in on netscore you see them there they're just below on on netscore number 11. and vmware's presence in the market we think that carbon black is really worth paying attention to okay so we're going to close with some summary and final thoughts last quarter we did a deeper dive on the solar winds hack and we think the ramifications are significant it has set the stage for a new era of escalation and adversary sophistication now major change we see is a heightened awareness that when you find intruders you'd better think very carefully about your next moves when someone breaks into your house if the dog barks or if you come down with a baseball bat or other weapon you might think the intruder is going to flee but if the criminal badly wants what you have in your house and it's valuable enough you might find yourself in a bloody knife fight or worse what's happening is intruders come to your company via island hopping or inside or subterfuge or whatever method and they'll live off the land stealthily using your own tools against you so they can you can't find them so easily so instead of injecting new tools in that send off an alert they just use what you already have there that's what's called living off the land they'll steal sensitive data for example positive covid test results when that was really really sensitive obviously still is or other medical data and when you retaliate they will double extort you they'll encrypt your data and hold it for ransom and at the same time threaten to release the sensitive information to crushing your brand in the process so your response must be as stealthy as their intrusion as you marshal your resources and devise an attack plan you face serious headwinds not only is this a complicated situation there's your ongoing and acute talent shortage that you tell us about all the time many companies are mired in technical debt that's an additional challenge and then you've got to balance the running of the business while actually affecting a digital transformation that's very very difficult and it's risky because the more digital you become the more exposed you are so this idea of zero trust people used to call it a buzzword it's now a mandate along with automation because you just can't throw labor at the problem this is all good news for investors as cyber remains a market that's ripe for valuation increases and m a activity especially if you know where to look hopefully we've helped you squint through the maze a little bit okay that's it for now thanks to the community for your comments and insights remember i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com these episodes they're all available as podcasts all you do is search breaking analysis podcast put in the headphones listen when you're in your car out for your walk or run and you can always connect on twitter at divalante or email me at david.valante at siliconangle.com i appreciate the comments on linkedin and in clubhouse please follow me so you're notified when we start a room and riff on these topics and others and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante recent survey data from etr shows that enterprise tech spending is tracking with projected u.s gdp growth at six to seven percent this year many markers continue to point the way to a strong recovery including hiring trends and the loosening of frozen it project budgets however skills shortages are blocking progress at some companies which bodes well for an increased reliance on external i.t services moreover while there's much to talk about well there's much talk about the rotation out of work from home plays and stocks such as video conferencing vdi and other remote worker tech we see organizations still trying to figure out the ideal balance between funding headquarter investments that have been neglected and getting hybrid work right in particular the talent gap combined with a digital mandate means companies face some tough decisions as to how to fund the future while serving existing customers and transforming culturally hello everyone and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we welcome back eric porter bradley of etr who will share fresh data perspectives and insights from the latest survey data eric great to see you welcome thank you very much dave always good to see you and happy to be on the show again okay we're going to share some macro data and then we're going to dig into some highlights from etr's most recent march covid survey and also the latest april data so eric the first chart that we want to show it shows cio and it buyer responses to expected i.t spend for each quarter of 2021 versus 2020. and you can see here a steady quarterly improvement eric what are the key takeaways from your perspective sure well first of all for everyone out there this particular survey had a record-setting number of uh participation we had uh 1 500 i.t decision makers participate and we had over half of the fortune 500 and over a fifth of the global 1000. so it was a really good survey this is the seventh iteration of the covet impact survey specifically and this is going to transition to an over large macro survey going forward so we could continue it and you're 100 right what we've been tracking here since uh march of last year was how is spending being impacted because of covid where is it shifting and what we're seeing now finally is that there is a real re-acceleration in spend i know we've been a little bit more cautious than some of the other peers out there that just early on slapped an eight or a nine percent number but what we're seeing is right now it's at a midpoint of over six uh about six point seven percent and that is accelerating so uh we are still hopeful that that will continue uh really that spending is going to be in the second half of the year as you can see on the left part of this chart that we're looking at uh it was about 1.7 versus 3 for q1 spending year over year so that is starting to accelerate through the back half you know i think it's prudent to be be cautious relative because normally you'd say okay tech is going to grow a couple of points higher than gdp but it's it's really so hard to predict this year okay the next chart is here that we want to show you is we ask respondents to indicate what strategies they're employing in the short term as a result of coronavirus and you can see a few things that i'll call out and then i'll ask eric to chime in first there's been no meaningful change of course no surprise in tactics like remote work and halting travel however we're seeing very positive trends in other areas trending downward like hiring freezes and freezing i.t deployments downward trend in layoffs and we also see an increase in the acceleration of new i.t deployments and in hiring eric what are your key takeaways well first of all i think it's important to point out here that uh we're also capturing that people believe remote work productivity is still increasing now the trajectory might be coming down a little bit but that is really key i think to the backdrop of what's happening here so people have a perception that productivity of remote work is better than hybrid work and that's from the i.t decision makers themselves um but what we're seeing here is that uh most importantly these organizations are citing plans to increase hiring and that's something that i think is really important to point out it's showing a real thawing and to your point in right in the beginning of the intro uh we are seeing deployments stabilize versus prior survey levels which means early on they had no plans to launch new tech deployments then they said nope we're going to start and now that's stalling and i think it's exactly right what you said is there's an i.t skills shortage so people want to continue to do i.t deployments because they have to support work from home and a hybrid back return to the office but they just don't have the skills to do so and i think that's really probably the most important takeaway from this chart um is that stalling and to really ask why it's stalling yeah so we're going to get into that for sure and and i think that's a really key point is that that that accelerating it deployments is some it looks like it's hit a wall in the survey and so but before before we get deep into the skills let's let's take a look at this next chart and we're asking people here how a return to the new normal if you will and back to offices is going to change spending with on-prem architectures and applications and so the first two bars they're cloud-friendly if you add them up at 63 percent of the respondents say that either they'll stay in the cloud for the most part or they're going to lower the on-prem spend when they go back to the office the next three bars are on-prem friendly if you add those up as 29 percent of the respondents say their on-prem spend is going to bounce back to pre-covert levels or actually increase and of course 12 percent of that number by the way say they they've never altered their on-prem spend so eric no surprise but this bodes well for cloud but but it it isn't it also a positive for on-prem this we've had this dual funding premise meaning cloud continues to grow but neglected data center spend also gets a boost what's your thoughts you know really it's interesting it's people are spending on all fronts you and i were talking in a prep it's like you know we're we're in battle and i've got naval i've got you know air i've got land uh i've got to spend on cloud and digital transformation but i also have to spend for on-prem uh the hybrid work is here and it needs to be supported so this spending is going to increase you know when you look at this chart you're going to see though that roughly 36 percent of all respondents say that their spending is going to remain mostly on cloud so this you know that is still the clear direction uh digital transformation is still happening covid accelerated it greatly um you know you and i as journalists and researchers already know this is where the puck is going uh but spend has always lagged a little bit behind because it just takes some time to get there you know inversely 27 said that their on-prem spending will decrease so when you look at those two i still think that the trend is the friend for cloud spending uh even though yes they do have to continue spending on hybrid some of it's been neglected there are refresh cycles coming up so overall it just points to more and more spending right now it really does seem to be a very strong backdrop for it growth so i want to talk a little bit about the etr taxonomy before we bring up the next chart we get a lot of questions about this and of course when you do a massive survey like you're doing you have to have consistency for time series so you have to really think through what that what the buckets look like if you will so this next chart takes a look at the etr taxonomy and it breaks it down into simple to understand terms so the green is the portion of spending on a vendor's tech within a category that is accelerating and the red is the portion that is decelerating so eric what are the key messages in this data well first of all dave thank you so much for pointing that out we used to do uh just what we call a next a net score it's a proprietary formula that we use to determine the overall velocity of spending some people found it confusing um our data scientists decided to break this sector breakdown into what you said which is really more of a mode analysis in that sector how many of the vendors are increasing versus decreasing so again i just appreciate you bringing that up and allowing us to explain the the the reasoning behind our analysis there but what we're seeing here uh goes back to something you and i did last year when we did our predictions and that was that it services and consulting was going to have a true rebound in 2021 and that's what this is showing right here so in this chart you're going to see that consulting and services are really continuing their recovery uh 2020 had a lot of declines and they have the biggest sector over year-over-year acceleration sector-wise the other thing to point out in this which we'll get to again later is that the inverse analysis is true for video conferencing uh we will get to that so i'm going to leave a little bit of ammunition behind for that one but what we're seeing here is it consulting services being the real favorable and video conferencing uh having a little bit more trouble great okay and then let's let's take a look at that services piece and this next chart really is a drill down into that space and emphasizes eric what you were just talking about and we saw this in ibm's earnings where still more than 60 percent of ibm's business comes from services and the company beat earnings you know in part due to services outperforming expectations i think it had a somewhat easier compare and some of this pen-up demand that we've been talking about bodes well for ibm and in other services companies it's not just ibm right eric no it's not but again i'm going to point out that you and i did point out ibm in our in our predictions one we did in late december so it is nice to see one of the reasons we don't have a more favorable rating on ibm at the moment is because they are in the the process of spinning out uh this large unit and so there's a little bit of you know corporate action there that keeps us off on the sideline but i would also want to point out here uh tata infosys and cognizant because they're seeing year-over-year acceleration in both it consulting and outsourced i t services so we break those down separately and those are the three names that are seeing acceleration in both of those so again a tata emphasis and cognizant are all looking pretty well positioned as well so we've been talking a little bit about this skill shortage and this is what's i think so hard for for forecasters um is that you know on the one hand there's a lot of pent up demand you know it's like scott gottlieb said it's like woodstock coming out of the covid uh but on the other hand if you have a talent gap you've got to rely on external services so there's a learning curve there's a ramp up it's an external company and so it takes time to put those together so so this data that we're going to show you next uh is is really important in my view and ties what we're saying we're saying at the top it asks respondents to comment on their staffing plans the light blue is we're increasing staff the gray is no change in the magenta or whatever whatever color that is that sort of purplish color anyway that color is is decreasing and the picture is very positive across the board full-time staff offshoring contract employees outsourced professional services all up trending upwards and this eric is more evidence of the services bounce back yeah it certainly is david and what happened is when we caught this trend we decided to go one level deeper and say all right we're seeing this but we need to know why and that's what we always try to do here data will tell you what's happening it doesn't always tell you why and that's one of the things that etr really tries to dig in with through the insights interviews panels and also going direct with these more custom survey questions uh so in this instance i think the real takeaway is that 30 of the respondents said that their outsourced and managed services are going to increase over the next three months that's really powerful that's a large portion of organizations in a very short time period so we're capturing that this acceleration is happening right now and it will be happening in real time and i don't see it slowing down you and i are speaking about we have to you know increase cloud spend we have to increase hybrid spend there are refresh cycles coming up and there's just a real skill shortage so this is a long-term setup that bodes very well for it services and consulting you know eric when i came out of college i somebody told me read read read read as much as you can and and so i would and they said read the wall street journal every day and i so i did it and i would read the tech magazines and back then it was all paper and what happens is you begin to connect the dots and so the reason i bring that up is because i've now been had taken a bath in the etr data for the better part of two years and i'm beginning to be able to connect the dots you know the data is not always predictive but many many times it is and so this next data gets into the fun stuff where we name names a lot of times people don't like it because the marketing people and organizations say well the data's wrong of course that's the first thing they do is attack the data but you and i know we've made some really great calls work from home for sure you're talking about the services bounce back uh we certainly saw the rise of crowdstrike octa zscaler well before people were talking about that same thing with video conferencing and so so anyway this is the fun stuff and it looks at positive versus negative sentiment on on companies so first how does etr derive this data and how should we interpret it and what are some of your takeaways [Music] sure first of all how we derive the data or systematic um survey responses that we do on a quarterly basis and we standardize those responses to allow for time series analysis so we can do trend analysis as well we do find that our data because it's talking about forward-looking spending intentions is really more predictive because we're talking about things that might be happening six months three months in the future not things that a lot of other competitors and research peers are looking at things that already happened uh they're looking in the past etr really likes to look into the future and our surveys are set up to do so so thank you for that question it's an enjoyable lead-in but to get to the fun stuff like you said uh what we do here is we put ratings on the data sets i do want to put the caveat out there that our spending intentions really only captures top-line revenue it is not indicative of profit margin or any other line items so this is only going to be viewed as what we are rating the data set itself not the company um you know that's not what we're in the game of doing so i think that's very important for the marketing and the vendors out there themselves when they when they take a look at this we're just talking about what we can control which is our data we're going to talk about a few of the names here on this highlighted vendors list one we're going to go back to that you and i spoke about i guess about six months ago or maybe even earlier which was the observability space um you and i were noticing that it was getting very crowded a lot of new entrants um there was a lot of acquisition from more of the legacy or standard entrance players in the space and that is continuing so i think in a minute we're going to move into that observability space but what we're seeing there is that it's becoming incredibly crowded and we're possibly seeing signs of them cannibalizing each other uh we're also going to move on a little bit into video conferencing where we're capturing some spend deceleration and then ultimately we're going to get into a little bit of a storage refresh cycle and talk about that but yeah these are the highlighted vendors for april um we usually do this once a quarter and they do change based on the data but they're not usually whipsawed around the data doesn't move that quickly yeah so you can see the some of the big names on the left-hand side some of the sas companies that have momentum obviously servicenow has been doing very very well we've talked a lot about snowflake octa crowdstrike z scalar in all very positive as well as you know several others i i guess i'd add some some things i mean i think if thinking about the next decade it's it's cloud which is not going to be like the same cloud as last decade a lot of machine learning and deep learning and ai and the cloud is extending to the edge in the data center data obviously very important data is decentralized and distributed so data architectures are changing a lot of opportunities to connect across clouds and actually create abstraction layers and then something that we've been covering a lot is processor performance is actually accelerating relative to moore's law it's probably instead of doubling every two years it's quadrupling every two years and so that is a huge factor especially as it relates to powering ai and ai inferencing at the edge this is a whole new territory custom silicon is is really becoming in vogue uh and so we're something that we're watching very very closely yeah i completely completely agree on that and i do think that the the next version of cloud will be very different another thing to point out on that too is you can't do anything that you're talking about without collecting the data and and organizations are extremely serious about that now it seems it doesn't matter what industry they're in every company is a data company and that also bodes well for the storage call we do believe that there is going to just be a huge increase in the need for storage um and yes hopefully that'll become portable across multi-cloud and hybrid as well now as eric said the the etr data's it's it's really focused on that top line spend so if you look at the uh on on the right side of that chart you saw you know netapp was kind of negative was very negative right but there's a company that's in in transformation now they've lowered expectations and they've recently beat expectations that's why the stock has been doing better but but at the macro from a spending standpoint it's still challenged so you have big footprint companies like netapp and oracle is another one oracle's stock is at an all-time high but the spending relative to sort of previous cycles or relative to you know like for instance snowflake much much smaller not as high growth but they're managing expectations they're managing their transition they're managing profitability zoom is another one zoom looking looking negative but you know zoom's got to use its market cap now to to transform and increase its tam uh and then splunk is another one we're going to talk about splunk is in transition it acquired signal fx it just brought on this week teresa carlson who was the head of aws public sector she's the president and head of sales so they've got a go to market challenge and they brought in teresa carlson to really solve that but but splunk has been trending downward we called that you know several quarters ago eric and so i want to bring up the data on splunk and this is splunk eric in analytics and it's not trending in the right direction the green is accelerating span the red is and the bars is decelerating spend the top blue line is spending velocity or net score and the yellow line is market share or pervasiveness in the data set your thoughts yeah first i want to go back is a great point dave about our data versus a disconnect from an equity analysis perspective i used to be an equity analyst that is not what we do here and you you may the main word you said is expectations right stocks will trade on how they do compared to the expectations that are set uh whether that's buy side expectations sell side expectations or management's guidance themselves we have no business in tracking any of that what we are talking about is top line acceleration or deceleration so uh that was a great point to make and i do think it's an important one for all of our listeners out there now uh to move to splunk yes i've been capturing a lot of negative commentary on splunk even before the data turned so this has been about a year-long uh you know our analysis and review on this name and i'm dating myself here but i know you and i are both rock and roll fans so i'm gonna point out a led zeppelin song and movie and say that the song remains the same for splunk we are just seeing uh you know recent spending intentions are taking yet another step down both from prior survey levels from year ago levels uh this we're looking at in the analytics sector and spending intentions are decelerating across every single customer group if we went to one of our other slide analysis um on the etr plus platform and you do by customer sub sample in analytics it's dropping in every single vertical it doesn't matter which one uh it's really not looking good unfortunately and you had mentioned this as an analytics and i do believe the next slide is an information security yeah let's bring that up and it's unfortunately it's not doing much better so this is specifically fortune 500 accounts and information security uh you know there's deep pockets in the fortune 500 but from what we're hearing in all the insights and interviews and panels that i personally moderate for etr people are upset they didn't like the the strong tactics that splunk has used on them in the past they didn't like the ingestion model pricing the inflexibility and when alternatives came along people are willing to look at the alternatives and that's what we're seeing in both analytics and big data and also for their sim in security yeah so i think again i i point to teresa carlson she's got a big job but she's very capable she's gonna she's gonna meet with a lot of customers she's a go to market pro she's gonna have to listen hard and i think you're gonna you're gonna see some changes there um okay so there's more sorry there's more bad news on splunk so bring this up is is is net score for splunk in elastic accounts uh this is for analytics so there's 106 elastic accounts that uh in the data set that also have splunk and it's trending downward for splunk that's why it's green for elastic and eric the important call out from etr here is how splunk's performance in elastic accounts compares with its performance overall the elk stack which obviously elastic is a big part of that is causing pain for splunk as is data dog and you mentioned the pricing issue uh is it is it just well is it pricing in your assessment or is it more fundamental you know it's multi-level based on the commentary we get from our itdms that take the survey so yes you did a great job with this analysis what we're looking at is uh the spending within shared accounts so if i have splunk already how am i spending i'm sorry if i have elastic already how is my spending on splunk and what you're seeing here is it's down to about a 12 net score whereas splunk overall has a 32 net score among all of its customers so what you're seeing there is there is definitely a drain that's happening where elastic is draining spend from splunk and usage from them uh the reason we used elastic here is because all observabilities the whole sector seems to be decelerating splunk is decelerating the most but elastic is the only one that's actually showing resiliency so that's why we decided to choose these two but you pointed out yes it's also datadog datadog is cloud native uh they're more devops oriented they tend to be viewed as having technological lead as compared to splunk so that's a really good point a dynatrace also is expanding their abilities and splunk has been making a lot of acquisitions to push their cloud services they are also changing their pricing model right they're they're trying to make things a little bit more flexible moving off ingestion um and moving towards uh you know consumption so they are trying and the new hires you know i'm not gonna bet against them because the one thing that splunk has going for them is their market share in our survey they're still very well entrenched so they do have a lot of accounts they have their foothold so if they can find a way to make these changes then they you know will be able to change themselves but the one thing i got to say across the whole sector is competition is increasing and it does appear based on commentary and data that they're starting to cannibalize themselves it really seems pretty hard to get away from that and you know there are startups in the observability space too that are going to be you know even more disruptive i think i think i want to key on the pricing for a moment and i've been pretty vocal about this i think the the old sas pricing model where essentially you essentially lock in for a year or two years or three years pay up front or maybe pay quarterly if you're lucky that's a one-way street and i think it's it's a flawed model i like what snowflake's doing i like what datadog's doing look at what stripe is doing look what twilio is doing these are cons you mentioned it because it's consumption based pricing and if you've got a great product put it out there and you know damn the torpedoes and i think that is a game changer i i look at for instance hpe with green lake i look at dell with apex they're trying to mimic that model you know they're there and apply it to to infrastructure it's much harder with infrastructure because you got to deploy physical infrastructure but but that is a model that i think is going to change and i think all of the traditional sas pricing is going to is going to come under disruption over the next you know better part of the decades but anyway uh let's move on we've we've been covering the the apm space uh pretty extensively application performance management and this chart lines up some of the big players here comparing net score or spending momentum from the april 20th survey the gray is is um is sorry the the the gray is the april 20th survey the blue is jan 21 and the yellow is april 21. and not only are elastic and data dog doing well relative to splunk eric but everything is down from last year so this space as you point out is undergoing a transformation yeah the pressures are real and it's you know it's sort of that perfect storm where it's not only the data that's telling us that but also the direct feedback we get from the community uh pretty much all the interviews i do i've done a few panels specifically on this topic for anyone who wants to you know dive a little bit deeper we've had some experts talk about this space and there really is no denying that there is a deceleration in spend and it's happening because that spend is getting spread out among different vendors people are using you know a data dog for certain aspects they're using elastic where they can because it's cheaper they're using splunk because they have to but because it's so expensive they're cutting some of the things that they're putting into splunk which is dangerous particularly on the security side if i have to decide what to put in and whatnot that's not really the right way to have security hygiene um so you know this space is just getting crowded there's disruptive vendors coming from the emerging space as well and what you're seeing here is the only bit of positivity is elastic on a survey over survey basis with a slight slight uptick everywhere else year over year and survey over survey it's showing declines it's just hard to ignore and then you've got dynatrace who based on the the interviews you do in the venn you're you know one on one or one on five you know the private interviews that i've been invited to dynatrace gets very high scores uh for their road map you've got new relic which has been struggling you know financially but they've got a purpose built they've got a really good product and a purpose-built database just for this apm space and then of course you've got cisco with appd which is a strong business for them and then as you mentioned you've got startups coming in you've got chaos search which ed walsh is now running you know leave the data in place in aws and really interesting model honeycomb it's going to be really disruptive jeremy burton's company observed so this space is it's becoming jump ball yeah there's a great line that came out of one of them and that was that the lines are blurring it used to be that you knew exactly that app dynamics what they were doing it was apm only or it was logging and monitoring only and a lot of what i'm hearing from the itdm experts is that the lines are blurring amongst all of these names they all have functionality that kind of crosses over each other and the other interesting thing is it used to be application versus infrastructure monitoring but as you know infrastructure is becoming code more and more and more and as infrastructure becomes code there's really no difference between application and infrastructure monitoring so we're seeing a convergence and a blurring of the lines in this space which really doesn't bode well and a great point about new relic their tech gets good remarks uh i just don't know if their enterprise level service and sales is up to snuff right now um as one of my experts said a cto of a very large public online hospitality company essentially said that he would be shocked that within 18 months if all of these players are still uh standalone that there needs to be some m a or convergence in this space okay now we're going to call out some of the data that that really has jumped out to etr in the latest survey and some of the names that are getting the most queries from etr clients which are many of which are investor clients so let's start by having a look at one of the most important and prominent work from home names zoom uh let's let's look at this eric is the ride over for zoom oh i've been saying it for a little bit of a time now actually i do believe it is um i will get into it but again pointing out great dave uh the reason we're presenting today splunk elastic and zoom are they are the most viewed on the etr plus platform uh trailing behind that only slightly is f5 i decided not to bring f5 to the table today because we don't have a rating on the data set um so then i went one deep one below that and it's pure so the reason we're presenting these to you today is that these are the ones that our clients and our community are most interested in which is hopefully going to gain interest to your viewers as well so to get to zoom um yeah i call zoom the pandec pandemic bull market baby uh this was really just one that had a meteoric ride you look back january in 2020 the stock was at 60 and 10 months later it was like like 580. that's in 10 months um that's cooled down a little bit uh into the mid 300s and i believe that cooling down should continue and the reason why is because we are seeing a huge deceleration in our spending intentions uh they're hitting all-time lows it's really just a very ugly data set um more importantly than the spending intentions for the first time we're seeing customer growth in our survey flattened in the past we could we knew that the the deceleration and spend was happening but meanwhile their new customer growth was accelerating so it was kind of hard to really make any call based on that this is the first time we're seeing flattening customer growth trajectory and that uh in tandem with just dominance from microsoft in every sector they're involved in i don't care if it's ip telephony productivity apps or the core video conferencing microsoft is just dominating so there's really just no way to ignore this anymore the data and the commentary state that zoom is facing some headwinds well plus you've pointed out to me that a lot of your private conversations with buyers says that hey we're we're using the freebie version of zoom you know we're not paying them and so in that combined with teams i mean it's it's uh it's i think you know look zoom has to figure it out they they've got to they've got to figure out how to use their elevated market cap to transform and expand their tan um but let's let's move on here's the data on pure storage and we've highlighted a number of times this company is showing elevated spending intentions um pure announces earnings in in may ibm uh just announced storage what uh it was way down actually so sort of still pure more positive but i'll comment on a moment but what does this data tell you eric yeah you know right now we started seeing this data last survey in january and that was the first time we really went positive on the data set itself and it's just really uh continuing so we're seeing the strongest year-over-year acceleration in the entire survey um which is a really good spot to be pure is also a leading position in among its sector peers and the other thing that was pretty interesting from the data set is among all storage players pure has the highest positive public cloud correlation so what we can do is we can see which respondents are accelerating their public cloud spend and then cross-reference that with their storage spend and pure is best positioned so as you and i both know uh you know digital transformation cloud spending is increasing you need to be aligned with that and among all storage uh sector peers uh pure is best positioned in all of those in spending intentions and uh adoptions and also public cloud correlation so yet again just another really strong data set and i have an anecdote about why this might be happening because when i saw the date i started asking in my interviews what's going on here and there was one particular person he was a director of cloud operations for a very large public tech company now they have hybrid um but their data center is in colo so they don't own and build their own physical building he pointed out that doran kovid his company wanted to increase storage but he couldn't get into his colo center due to covert restrictions they weren't allowed you had so 250 000 square feet right but you're only allowed to have six people in there so it's pretty hard to get to your rack and get work done he said he would buy storage but then the cola would say hey you got to get it out of here it's not even allowed to sit here we don't want it in our facility so he has all this pent up demand in tandem with pent up demand we have a refresh cycle the ssd you know depreciation uh you know cycle is ending uh you know ssds are moving on and we're starting to see uh new technology in that space nvme sorry for technology increasing in that space so we have pent up demand and we have new technology and that's really leading to a refresh cycle and this particular itdm that i spoke to and many of his peers think this has a long tailwind that uh storage could be a good sector for some time to come that's really interesting thank you for that that extra metadata and i want to do a little deeper dive on on storage so here's a look at storage in the the industry in context and some of the competitive i mean it's been a tough market for the reasons that we've highlighted cloud has been eating away that flash headroom it used to be you'd buy storage to get you know more spindles and more performance and you were sort of forced to buy more flash gave more headroom but it's interesting what you're saying about the depreciation cycle so that's good news so etr combines just for people's benefit here combines primary and secondary storage into a single category so you have companies like pure and netapp which are really pure play you know primary storage companies largely in the sector along with veeam cohesity and rubric which are kind of secondary data or data protection so my my quick thoughts here are that pure is elevated and remains what i call the one-eyed man in the land of the blind but that's positive tailwinds there so that's good news rubric is very elevated but down it's a big it's big competitor cohesity is way off its highs and i have to say to me veeam is like the steady eddy consistent player here they just really continue to do well in the data protection business and and the highs are steady the lows are steady dell is also notable they've been struggling in storage their isg business which comprises service and storage it's been soft during covid and and during even you know this new product rollout so it's notable with this new mid-range they have in particular the uptick in dell this survey because dell so large a small uptick can be very good for dell hpe has a big announcement next month in storage so that might improve based on a product cycle of course the nimble brand continues to do well ibm as i said just announced a very soft quarter you know down double digits again uh and there in a product cycle shift and netapp is that looks bad in the etr data from a spending momentum standpoint but their management team is transforming the company into a cloud play which eric is why it was interesting that pure has the greatest momentum in in cloud accounts so that is sort of striking to me i would have thought it would be netapp so that's something that we want to pay attention to but i do like a lot of what netapp is doing uh and other than pure they're the only big kind of pure play in primary storage so long winded uh uh intro there eric but anything you'd add no actually i appreciate it was long winded i i'm going to be honest with you storage is not my uh my best sector as far as a researcher and analyst goes uh but i actually think a lot of what you said is spot on um you know we do capture a lot of large organizations spend uh we don't capture much mid and small so i think when you're talking about these large large players like netapp and um you know not looking so good all i would state is that we are capturing really big organizations spending attention so these are names that should be doing better to be quite honest uh in those accounts and you know at least according to our data we're not seeing it and it's long-term depression as you can see uh you know netapp now has a negative spending velocity in this analysis so you know i can go dig around a little bit more but right now the names that i'm hearing are pure cohesity uh um i'm hearing a little bit about hitachi trying to reinvent themselves in the space but you know i'll take a wait-and-see approach on that one but uh pure and cohesity are the ones i'm hearing a lot from our community so storage is transforming to cloud as a service you're seeing things like apex and in green lake from dell and hpe and container storage little so not really a lot of people paying attention to it but pure about a company called portworx which really specializes in container storage and there's many startups there they're trying to really change the way david flynn has a startup in that space he's the guy who started fusion i o so a lot a lot of transformations happening here okay i know it's been a long segment we have to summarize and then let me go through a summary and then i'll give you the last word eric so tech spending appears to be tracking us gdp at six to seven percent this talent shortage could be a blocker to accelerating i.t deployments and that's kind of good news actually for for services companies digital transformation you know it's it remains a priority and that bodes well not only for services but automation uipath went public this week we we profiled that you know extensively that went public last wednesday um organizations they've i said at the top face some tough decisions on how to allocate resources you know running the business growing the business transforming the business and we're seeing a bifurcation of spending and some residual effects on vendors and that remains a theme that we're watching eric your final thoughts yeah i'm going to go back quickly to just the overall macro spending because there's one thing i think is interesting to point out and we're seeing a real acceleration among mid and small so it seems like early on in the covid recovery or kovitz spending it was the deep pockets that moved first right fortune 500 knew they had to support remote work they started spending first round that in the fortune 500 we're only seeing about five percent spent but when you get into mid and small organizations that's creeping up to eight nine so i just think it's important to point out that they're playing catch-up right now uh also would point out that this is heavily skewed to north america spending we're seeing laggards in emea they just don't seem to be spending as much they're in a very different place in their recovery and uh you know i do think that it's important to point that out um lastly i also want to mention i know you do such a great job on following a lot of the disruptive vendors that you just pointed out pure doing container storage we also have another bi-annual survey that we do called emerging technology and that's for the private names that's going to be launching in may for everyone out there who's interested in not only the disruptive vendors but also private equity players uh keep an eye out for that we do that twice a year and that's growing in its respondents as well and then lastly one comment because you mentioned the uipath ipo it was really hard for us to sit on the sidelines and not put some sort of rating on their data set but ultimately um the data was muted unfortunately and when you're seeing this kind of hype into an ipo like we saw with snowflake the data was resoundingly strong we had no choice but to listen to what the data said for snowflake despite the hype um we didn't see that for uipath and we wanted to and i'm not making a large call there but i do think it's interesting to juxtapose the two that when snowflake was heading to its ipo the data was resoundingly positive and for uipath we just didn't see that thank you for that and eric thanks for coming on today it's really a pleasure to have you and uh so really appreciate the the uh collaboration and look forward to doing more of these we enjoy the partnership greatly dave we're very very happy to have you in the etr family and looking forward to doing a lot lot more with you in the future ditto okay that's it for today remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you got to do is search breaking analysis podcast and please subscribe to the series check out etr's website it's etr dot plus we also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com at siliconangle.com you can email me david.velante at siliconangle.com you can dm me on twitter at dvalante or comment on our linkedin post i could see you in clubhouse this is dave vellante for eric porter bradley for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week stay safe be well and we'll see you next time

[Music] from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante top security pros indicate that the solar winds hack on top of the pandemic have further heightened a change in how they think about security not only musciso secure an increasingly distributed workforce and network infrastructure but they now must be wary of software code coming from reputable vendors including the very patches designed to protect them against cyber attacks hello everyone and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll summarize cso sentiments from a recent etr venn session and provide our quarterly update of the cyber security sector now in an upcoming episode we'll be inviting eric bradley of etr to provide deeper analysis and insights on these trends but we wanted to give you a preliminary preview of what's happening in the sector as we start off 2021. now the solar winds attack was like nothing we've ever seen before it's been covered quite widely in the press but in case you don't know the details solarwinds is a company that provides software to monitor many aspects of largely on-prem infrastructure including things like network performance log files configuration data storage servers and the like now as with all software companies solarwinds sends out regular updates and patches hackers were able to infiltrate the update and trojanize the software meaning when customers installed the updates the malware just went along for the ride now the reason this is so insidious is that often hackers they're going to target installations that haven't installed patches or updates and identified vulnerabilities in the infrastructure that haven't been addressed doors that are open that haven't been closed if you will now here the very code designed to protect against the breach actually facilitated that breach now according to experts this was quite a sophisticated attack that most believe was perpetrated by the russian hacker group cozy bear an advanced persistent threat or apt as classified by the u.s government now it's suspected that somehow they fished their way into a github repo and stole username and password access to allow them to penetrate the supply chain of software that's delivered over the internet but public information on this attack it's still spotty people are still learning now what is known is that the attackers have been lurking since march of last year and they exfiltrated lots of information from the u.s government and many other high-profile companies now here's what the csos and the etr van had to say about it let me just read some of the quotes the impact of this breach is profound it really turned a lot of heads and conventions about cyber security i don't think this threat has been exaggerated in the media we're now in a situation where we have to monitor the monitors this attack didn't have any signatures of a previous attack so you got down to the code level 80 to 90 of that code is being downloaded from the internet it's bringing devops security processes and making us rethink how to reinvent security and i'll add my business friend val berkovici said to me on twitter last year that he thinks the government hack is going to have permanent implications on how organizations approach cyber security it seems these cisos agree now the one question is what can be done about this and when you talk to security pros they'll definitely tell you they're rethinking security practices but look there's only so much you can do here's a tag cloud summarizing some of what we hear in the cube community and in the venn from etr practitioners you hear a lot about xero trust many csos are really leaning into identity access management and pam and mandates around two-factor authentication we've talked a lot about firms like octa sale point cyber arc software and microsoft is coming up more and more in this conversation especially as octa is seen as setting a price umbrella there's definitely some frustration amongst csos about octa's pricing strategies and auth 0 which does authentication as a service that's hitting our radar as well now of course endpoint security is something we've talked a lot about as the work from home trend hit during the pandemic it's become much much more important and you can see in the growth of crowdstrike and as you see in a moment we're getting some traction with vmware and carbon black in the survey data and of course titanium is another company that we've talked about csos look they're not just going to rip out what they have so companies like cisco especially with umbrella and duo they come up in the conversation as does palo alto networks we've said many times palo alto is seen as a thought leader csos like them they also like fortinet especially those that may be more cost cost conscious we see that a lot in mid-market and so on with analytics micro-segmentation cloud security with z-scaler and even rpa to automate certain tasks uipath has come up in the conversation more and more in a security context so you look at this tag cloud and there's no one answer as is often the case case with cyber security lots of tools lots of disciplines and a very capable adversary who has learned to as they say live off the land using your own infrastructure and tooling against you now the common narrative is that security is a top priority with cios and csos and budgets are going to be up so let's take a look at that well kind of here's a chart that shows the net scores or spending momentum for various sectors of the etr tech taxonomy and we've highlighted the information security segment yes it's up relative to the october survey but it really doesn't stand out i mean everything's up as we've reported coming off a down year in tech spending minus four percent last year and we're forecasting a plus six to seven percent increase this year really depending on on the pace of their recovery but the point is cyber is one of many budget organizations and organizations they're simply not going to open up a blank check to the cso now part of the reason is they're heavily invested in cyber this graphic shows several sectors in context and we've highlighted security in the red box the vertical axis that shows spending velocity and the horizontal axis is market share or presence in the data set and you can see the security it's got a big presence it's pervasive of course but it lags some of the top sectors in terms of spending velocity because look organizations they've got lots of priorities and as you'll see in a moment this space like most mature markets has some companies with off the charts spending patterns and others that lag so let's dig into that a little bit here you see that same xy graphic and we've plotted a number of security players so there's a couple of points here that we want to make first microsoft as usual is off the charts to the right and amazingly has a net score of 48 percent so highly elevated octa continues to lead this pack in net score as it has the last several surveys it's got a net score of 61.5 percent up from last quarter survey octa crowdstrike cyberark fortinet proof point and splunk are all up nicely from last quarter's survey we also really want to highlight carbon black the company's net score last quarter was 23.9 percent with 134 mentions in this quarter its net score shot up to nearly 38 so a very meaningful and noticeable move for vmware's 2.1 billion dollar acquisition that it made in the summer of 2019. so a number of companies that have momentum which stems from a rebound in tech spending but also a shift in security spend that we've highlighted and you can see a couple of legacy security firms that are also there in the chart losing momentum we've highlighted fireeye and rsa okay so now let's dig deeper into the data and the vendor performance here's a view of the data that we first showed you in 2019 it shows the net score and the shared n which identifies the number of mentions within the sector and it's an indicator of presence in the marketplace the leftmost chart is sorted by netscore and the right-hand chart is sorted by shared n so to make this chart you had to have at least an n of 50 in the survey again you can see octa sale and sale point lead in net score and microsoft has the biggest presence in the right hand side along with cisco and palo alto and something we started two years ago was if a vendor shows up in the top 10 for both net score and shared n we anointed them with four stars so these are the four star companies microsoft palo alto octa and crowdstrike which crouch by the way it fell off but it's back on and i think that was probably a survey anomaly because based on the company's financials there has been no loss of momentum for crowdstrike and we give two stars to those companies that make the top 20 in both categories so cisco because of umbrella and duo splunk proofpoint fortinet z z-scaler cyborg and carbon black vmware carbon black is new to the two-star list due to its rapid rise in net score that we just talked about now just a quick aside on carbon black at vmworld 2019 pat gelsinger told john furrier and me that he felt like he got a great deal picking up carbon black for 2.1 billion dollars now his logic was in part based on the valuation of crowdstrike at the time which is of course carbon black competitor crowdstrike as you can see on this chart had a valuation that was at nine times higher than that of carbon black and you can see from the trailing 12-month revenue that crowdstrike was a significantly larger company by more than 100 million dollars in revenue so the real story though was the company's growth crowdstrike at the time was growing much much faster than carbon black at more than a hundred percent compared to carbon blacks 22 roughly now in vmware's recent earnings call they said that carbon black had good bookings performance so who knows exactly what that means but if it were more than 22 my guess is that vmware vmware would have been more effusive in its commentary so let's assume that since the acquisition carbon black growth has been flattish you know maybe down maybe up but probably flat so vmware they're figuring out how to integrate the company and we think that as it does that it's going to use its channel of distribution and global presence to really drive carbon black sales now nonetheless we would still peg carbon black's valuation of having increased pretty substantially since the time of the acquisition perhaps in the three to five billion range we don't know for sure so but a nice pickup in our view for vmware and it'll likely grow from here based on the etr data then that's very encouraging for carbon black now let's look at how the valuations in this sector have changed since before covid here's an updated view of our valuation matrix since just before the pandemic hit in the u.s as you can see the s p is up 16 from that time frame the nas composite up 43 percent wow now look at the others only splunk really hasn't seen a huge uptick in valuation but the others have either risen noticeably like proof point cyber arc sail point they bounced up like palo alto or fortinet or exploded like crowd chat octa and z scalar you combine all these and you're talking about 114 billion dollar increase in market cap for these so one would think carbon black as a vmware asset has done pretty well along with these names and we would expect that the tech spending rebound this year combined with the heightened concerns over the solar winds hack and the tectonic shifts from the accelerated work from home and digital business transformations will continue to bode well for many of these names for quite some time all right let's wrap it up with some of the things we're watching in this space as we exit the pandemic and experience a new digital reality cyber threats have never been greater look each january if you look back on the prior year you'd be able to say the same thing for the last couple of decades and the reality is the budgets and spending on cyber they're asymmetric to the economic risks we just don't spend enough and probably can't spend enough to solve this problem csos they have to balance their legacy legacy install base security infrastructure with the shift to zero trust accelerated endpoint new access management challenges the ever expanding cloud and dot dot dot lack of talent remains the single biggest challenge for organizations which are stretch thin making investments in automation a trend that is not going to abate anytime soon in cyber all the cliches apply there is no silver bullet there is no rest for the weary the adversary they are well funded and extremely capable and they only have to succeed once to create a business disaster for an organization that has to succeed every day 24 hours a day so expect more of the same with no end in sight in terms of complexity fragmentation and whack-a-mole approaches to fighting cyber crime i hate to say this but it just means the fundamentals for the sector just keep getting better and better sorry okay that's it for this week remember all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen so please subscribe i publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data and the analytics i appreciate the comments on my linkedin post you can dm me at [Music] you