(upbeat music) >> From theCube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCube and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> While by no means a safe haven, the cybersecurity sector has outpaced the broader tech market by a meaningful margin, that is up until very recently. Cybersecurity remains the number one technology priority for the C-suite, but as we've previously reported the CISO's budget has constraints just like other technology investments. Recent trends show that economic headwinds have elongated sales cycles, pushed deals into future quarters, and just like other tech initiatives, are pacing cybersecurity investments and breaking them into smaller chunks. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis we explain how cybersecurity trends are reverting to the mean and tracking more closely with other technology investments. We'll make a couple of valuation comparisons to show the magnitude of the challenge and which cyber firms are feeling the heat, which aren't. There are some exceptions. We'll then show the latest survey data from ETR to quantify the contraction in spending momentum and close with a glimpse of the landscape of emerging cybersecurity companies, the private companies that could be ripe for acquisition, consolidation, or disruptive to the broader market. First, let's take a look at the recent patterns for cyber stocks relative to the broader tech market as a benchmark, as an indicator. Here's a year to date comparison of the bug ETF, which comprises a basket of cyber security names, and we compare that with the tech heavy NASDAQ composite. Notice that on April 13th of this year the cyber ETF was actually in positive territory while the NAS was down nearly 14%. Now by August 16th, the green turned red for cyber stocks but they still meaningfully outpaced the broader tech market by more than 950 basis points as of December 2nd that Delta had contracted. As you can see, the cyber ETF is now down nearly 25%, year to date, while the NASDAQ is down 27% and change. Now take a look at just how far a few of the high profile cybersecurity names have fallen. Here are six security firms that we've been tracking closely since before the pandemic. We've been, you know, tracking dozens but let's just take a look at this data and the subset. We show for comparison the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, again, just for reference, they're both up since right before the pandemic. They're up relative to right before the pandemic, and then during the pandemic the S&P shot up more than 40%, relative to its pre pandemic level, around February is what we're using for the pre pandemic level, and the NASDAQ peaked at around 65% higher than that February level. They're now down 85% and 71% of their previous. So they're at 85% and 71% respectively from their pandemic highs. You compare that to these six companies, Splunk, which was and still is working through a transition is well below its pre pandemic market value and 44, it's 44% of its pre pandemic high as of last Friday. Palo Alto Networks is the most interesting here, in that it had been facing challenges prior to the pandemic related to a pivot to the Cloud which we reported on at the time. But as we said at that time we believe the company would sort out its Cloud transition, and its go to market challenges, and sales compensation issues, which it did as you can see. And its valuation jumped from 24 billion prior to Covid to 56 billion, and it's holding 93% of its peak value. Its revenue run rate is now over 6 billion with a healthy growth rate of 24% expected for the next quarter. Similarly, Fortinet has done relatively well holding 71% of its peak Covid value, with a healthy 34% revenue guide for the coming quarter. Now, Okta has been the biggest disappointment, a darling of the pandemic Okta's communication snafu, with what was actually a pretty benign hack combined with difficulty absorbing its 7 billion off zero acquisition, knocked the company off track. Its valuation has dropped by 35 billion since its peak during the pandemic, and that's after a nice beat and bounce back quarter just announced by Okta. Now, in our view Okta remains a viable long-term leader in identity. However, its recent fiscal 24 revenue guide was exceedingly conservative at around 16% growth. So either the company is sandbagging, or has such poor visibility that it wants to be like super cautious or maybe it's actually seeing a dramatic slowdown in its business momentum. After all, this is a company that not long ago was putting up 50% plus revenue growth rates. So it's one that bears close watching. CrowdStrike is another big name that we've been talking about on Breaking Analysis for quite some time. It like Okta has led the industry in a key ETR performance indicator that measures customer spending momentum. Just last week, CrowdStrike announced revenue increased more than 50% but new ARR was soft and the company guided conservatively. Not surprisingly, the stock got absolutely crushed as CrowdStrike blamed tepid demand from smaller and midsize firms. Many analysts believe that competition from Microsoft was one factor along with cautious spending amongst those midsize and smaller customers. Notably, large customers remain active. So we'll see if this is a longer term trend or an anomaly. Zscaler is another company in the space that we've reported having great customer spending momentum from the ETR data. But even though the company beat expectations for its recent quarter, like other companies its Outlook was conservative. So other than Palo Alto, and to a lesser extent Fortinet, these companies and others that we're not showing here are feeling the economic pinch and it shows in the compression of value. CrowdStrike, for example, had a 70 billion valuation at one point during the pandemic Zscaler top 50 billion, Okta 45 billion. Now, having said that Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler are all still trading well above their pre pandemic levels that we tracked back in February of 2020. All right, let's go now back to ETR'S January survey and take a look at how much things have changed since the beginning of the year. Remember, this is obviously pre Ukraine, and pre all the concerns about the economic headwinds but here's an X Y graph that shows a net score, or spending momentum on the y-axis, and market presence on the x-axis. The red dotted line at 40% on the vertical indicates a highly elevated net score. Anything above that we think is, you know, super elevated. Now, we filtered the data here to show only those companies with more than 50 responses in the ETR survey. Still really crowded. Note that there were around 20 companies above that red 40% mark, which is a very, you know, high number. It's a, it's a crowded market, but lots of companies with, you know, positive momentum. Now let's jump ahead to the most recent October survey and take a look at what, what's happening. Same graphic plotting, spending momentum, and market presence, and look at the number of companies above that red line and how it's been squashed. It's really compressing, it's still a crowded market, it's still, you know, plenty of green, but the number of companies above 40% that, that key mark has gone from around 20 firms down to about five or six. And it speaks to that compression and IT spending, and of course the elongated sales cycles pushing deals out, taking them in smaller chunks. I can't tell you how many conversations with customers I had, at last week at Reinvent underscoring this exact same trend. The buyers are getting pressure from their CFOs to slow things down, do more with less and, and, and prioritize projects to those that absolutely are critical to driving revenue or cutting costs. And that's rippling through all sectors, including cyber. Now, let's do a bit more playing around with the ETR data and take a look at those companies with more than a hundred citations in the survey this quarter. So N, greater than or equal to a hundred. Now remember the followers of Breaking Analysis know that each quarter we take a look at those, what we call four star security firms. That is, those are the, that are in, that hit the top 10 for both spending momentum, net score, and the N, the mentions in the survey, the presence, the pervasiveness in the survey, and that's what we show here. The left most chart is sorted by spending momentum or net score, and the right hand chart by shared N, or the number of mentions in the survey, that pervasiveness metric. that solid red line denotes the cutoff point at the top 10. And you'll note we've actually cut it off at 11 to account for Auth 0, which is now part of Okta, and is going through a go to market transition, you know, with the company, they're kind of restructuring sales so they can take advantage of that. So starting on the left with spending momentum, again, net score, Microsoft leads all vendors, typical Microsoft, very prominent, although it hadn't always done so, it, for a while, CrowdStrike and Okta were, were taking the top spot, now it's Microsoft. CrowdStrike, still always near the top, but note that CyberArk and Cloudflare have cracked the top five in Okta, which as I just said was consistently at the top, has dropped well off its previous highs. You'll notice that Palo Alto Network Palo Alto Networks with a 38% net score, just below that magic 40% number, is healthy, especially as you look over to the right hand chart. Take a look at Palo Alto with an N of 395. It is the largest of the independent pure play security firms, and has a very healthy net score, although one caution is that net score has dropped considerably since the beginning of the year, which is the case for most of the top 10 names. The only exception is Fortinet, they're the only ones that saw an increase since January in spending momentum as ETR measures it. Now this brings us to the four star security firms, that is those that hit the top 10 in both net score on the left hand side and market presence on the right hand side. So it's Microsoft, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, still there even not accounting for a Auth 0, just Okta on its own. If you put in Auth 0, it's, it's even stronger. Adding then in Fortinet and Zscaler. So Microsoft, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Okta, Fortinet, and Zscaler. And as we've mentioned since January, only Fortinet has shown an increase in net score since, since that time, again, since the January survey. Now again, this talks to the compression in spending. Now one of the big themes we hear constantly in cybersecurity is the market is overcrowded. Everybody talks about that, me included. The implication there, is there's a lot of room for consolidation and that consolidation can come in the form of M&A, or it can come in the form of people consolidating onto a single platform, and retiring some other vendors, and getting rid of duplicate vendors. We're hearing that as a big theme as well. Now, as we saw in the previous, previous chart, this is a very crowded market and we've seen lots of consolidation in 2022, in the form of M&A. Literally hundreds of M&A deals, with some of the largest companies going private. SailPoint, KnowBe4, Barracuda, Mandiant, Fedora, these are multi billion dollar acquisitions, or at least billion dollars and up, and many of them multi-billion, for these companies, and hundreds more acquisitions in the cyberspace, now less you think the pond is overfished, here's a chart from ETR of emerging tech companies in the cyber security industry. This data comes from ETR's Emerging Technologies Survey, ETS, which is this diamond in a rough that I found a couple quarters ago, and it's ripe with companies that are candidates for M&A. Many would've liked, many of these companies would've liked to, gotten to the public markets during the pandemic, but they, you know, couldn't get there. They weren't ready. So the graph, you know, similar to the previous one, but different, it shows net sentiment on the vertical axis and that's a measurement of, of, of intent to adopt against a mind share on the X axis, which measures, measures the awareness of the vendor in the community. So this is specifically a survey that ETR goes out and, and, and fields only to track those emerging tech companies that are private companies. Now, some of the standouts in Mindshare, are OneTrust, BeyondTrust, Tanium and Endpoint, Net Scope, which we've talked about in previous Breaking Analysis. 1Password, which has been acquisitive on its own. In identity, the managed security service provider, Arctic Wolf Network, a company we've also covered, we've had their CEO on. We've talked about MSSPs as a real trend, particularly in small and medium sized business, we'll come back to that, Sneek, you know, kind of high flyer in both app security and containers, and you can just see the number of companies in the space this huge and it just keeps growing. Now, just to make it a bit easier on the eyes we filtered the data on these companies with with those, and isolated on those with more than a hundred responses only within the survey. And that's what we show here. Some of the names that we just mentioned are a bit easier to see, but these are the ones that really stand out in ERT, ETS, survey of private companies, OneTrust, BeyondTrust, Taniam, Netscope, which is in Cloud, 1Password, Arctic Wolf, Sneek, BitSight, SecurityScorecard, HackerOne, Code42, and Exabeam, and Sim. All of these hit the ETS survey with more than a hundred responses by, by the IT practitioners. Okay, so these firms, you know, maybe they do some M&A on their own. We've seen that with Sneek, as I said, with 1Password has been inquisitive, as have others. Now these companies with the larger footprint, these private companies, will likely be candidate for both buying companies and eventually going public when the markets settle down a bit. So again, no shortage of players to affect consolidation, both buyers and sellers. Okay, so let's finish with some key questions that we're watching. CrowdStrike in particular on its earnings calls cited softness from smaller buyers. Is that because these smaller buyers have stopped adopting? If so, are they more at risk, or are they tactically moving toward the easy button, aka, Microsoft's good enough approach. What does that mean for the market if smaller company cohorts continue to soften? How about MSSPs? Will companies continue to outsource, or pause on on that, as well as try to free up, to try to free up some budget? Adam Celiski at Reinvent last week said, "If you want to save money the Cloud's the best place to do it." Is the cloud the best place to save money in cyber? Well, it would seem that way from the standpoint of controlling budgets with lots of, lots of optionality. You could dial up and dial down services, you know, or does the Cloud add another layer of complexity that has to be understood and managed by Devs, for example? Now, consolidation should favor the likes of Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, cause they're platform players, and some of the larger players as well, like Cisco, how about IBM and of course Microsoft. Will that happen? And how will economic uncertainty impact the risk equation, a particular concern is increase of tax on vulnerable sectors of the population, like the elderly. How will companies and governments protect them from scams? And finally, how many cybersecurity companies can actually remain independent in the slingshot economy? In so many ways the market is still strong, it's just that expectations got ahead of themselves, and now as earnings forecast come, come, come down and come down to earth, it's going to basically come down to who can execute, generate cash, and keep enough runway to get through the knothole. And the one certainty is nobody really knows how tight that knothole really is. All right, let's call it a wrap. Next week we dive deeper into Palo Alto Networks, and take a look at how and why that company has held up so well and what to expect at Ignite, Palo Alto's big user conference coming up later this month in Las Vegas. We'll be there with theCube. Okay, many thanks to Alex Myerson on production and manages the podcast, Ken Schiffman as well, as our newest edition to our Boston studio. Great to have you Ken. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our EIC over at Silicon Angle. He does some great editing for us. Thank you to all. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search Breaking Analysis podcast. I publish each week on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com, or you can email me directly David.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @DVellante, or comment on our LinkedIn posts. Please do checkout etr.ai, they got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> When Facebook changed its name to Meta last fall, it catalyzed a chain reaction throughout the tech industry. Software firms, gaming companies, chip makers, device manufacturers, and others have joined in hype machine. Now, it's easy to dismiss the metaverse as futuristic hyperbole, but do we really believe that tapping on a smartphone, or staring at a screen, or two-dimensional Zoom meetings are the future of how we work, play, and communicate? As the internet itself proved to be larger than we ever imagined, it's very possible, and even quite likely that the combination of massive processing power, cheap storage, AI, blockchains, crypto, sensors, AR, VR, brain interfaces, and other emerging technologies will combine to create new and unimaginable consumer experiences, and massive wealth for creators of the metaverse. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube Insights, powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis" we welcome in cyber expert, hacker gamer, NFT expert, and founder of ORE System, Nick Donarski. Nick, welcome, thanks so much for coming on theCUBE. >> Thank you, sir, glad to be here. >> Yeah, okay, so today we're going to traverse two parallel paths, one that took Nick from security expert and PenTester to NFTs, tokens, and the metaverse. And we'll simultaneously explore the complicated world of cybersecurity in the enterprise, and how the blockchain, crypto, and NFTs will provide key underpinnings for digital ownership in the metaverse. We're going to talk a little bit about blockchain, and crypto, and get things started there, and some of the realities and misconceptions, and how innovations in those worlds have led to the NFT craze. We'll look at what's really going on in NFTs and why they're important as both a technology and societal trend. Then, we're going to dig into the tech and try to explain why and how blockchain and NFTs are going to lay the foundation for the metaverse. And, finally, who's going to build the metaverse. And how long is it going to take? All right, Nick, let's start with you. Tell us a little bit about your background, your career. You started as a hacker at a really, really young age, and then got deep into cyber as a PenTester. You did some pretty crazy stuff. You have some great stories about sneaking into buildings. You weren't just doing it all remote. Tell us about yourself. >> Yeah, so I mean, really, I started a long time ago. My dad was really the foray into technology. I wrote my first program on an Apple IIe in BASIC in 1989. So, I like to say I was born on the internet, if you will. But, yeah, in high school at 16, I incorporated my first company, did just tech support for parents and teachers. And then in 2000 I transitioned really into security and focused there ever since. I joined Rapid7 and after they picked up Medis boy, I joined HP. I was one of their founding members of Shadowlabs and really have been part of the information security and the cyber community all throughout, whether it's training at various different conferences or talking. My biggest thing and my most awesome moments as various things of being broken into, is really when I get to actually work with somebody that's coming up in the industry and who's new and actually has that light bulb moment of really kind of understanding of technology, understanding an idea, or getting it when it comes to that kind of stuff. >> Yeah, and when you think about what's going on in crypto and NFTs and okay, now the metaverse it's you get to see some of the most innovative people. Now I want to first share a little bit of data on enterprise security and maybe Nick get you to comment. We've reported over the past several years on the complexity in the security business and the numerous vendor choices that SecOps Pros face. And this chart really tells that story in the cybersecurity space. It's an X,Y graph. We've shown it many times from the ETR surveys where the vertical axis, it's a measure of spending momentum called net score. And the horizontal axis is market share, which represents each company's presence in the data set, and a couple of points stand out. First, it's really crowded. In that red dotted line that you see there, that's 40%, above that line on the net score axis, marks highly elevated spending momentum. Now, let's just zoom in a bit and I've cut the data by those companies that have more than a hundred responses in the survey. And you can see here on this next chart, it's still very crowded, but a few call-outs are noteworthy. First companies like SentinelOne, Elastic, Tanium, Datadog, Netskope and Darktrace. They were all above that 40% line in the previous chart, but they've fallen off. They still have actually a decent presence in the survey over 60 responses, but under that hundred. And you can see Auth0 now Okta, big $7 billion acquisition. They got the highest net score CrowdStrike's up there, Okta classic they're kind of enterprise business, and Zscaler and others above that line. You see Palo Alto Networks and Microsoft very impressive because they're both big and they're above that elevated spending velocity. So Nick, kind of a long-winded intro, but it was a little bit off topic, but I wanted to start here because this is the life of a SecOps pro. They lack the talent in a capacity to keep bad guys fully at bay. And so they have to keep throwing tooling at the problem, which adds to the complexity and as a PenTester and hacker, this chaos and complexity means cash for the bad guys. Doesn't it? >> Absolutely. You know, the more systems that these organizations find to integrate into the systems, means that there's more components, more dollars and cents as far as the amount of time and the engineers that need to actually be responsible for these tools. There's a lot of reasons that, the more, I guess, hands in the cookie jar, if you will, when it comes to the security architecture, the more links that are, or avenues for attack built into the system. And really one of the biggest things that organizations face is being able to have engineers that are qualified and technical enough to be able to support that architecture as well, 'cause buying it from a vendor and deploying it, putting it onto a shelf is good, but if it's not tuned properly, or if it's not connected properly, that security tool can just hold up more avenues of attack for you. >> Right, okay, thank you. Now, let's get into the meat of the discussion for today and talk a little bit about blockchain and crypto for a bit. I saw sub stack post the other day, and it was ripping Matt Damon for pedaling crypto on TV ads and how crypto is just this big pyramid scheme. And it's all about allowing criminals to be anonymous and it's ransomware and drug trafficking. And yes, there are definitely scams and you got to be careful and lots of dangers out there, but these are common criticisms in the mainstream press, that overlooked the fact by the way that IPO's and specs are just as much of a pyramid scheme. Now, I'm not saying there shouldn't be more regulation, there should, but Bitcoin was born out of the 2008 financial crisis, cryptocurrency, and you think about, it's really the confluence of software engineering, cryptography and game theory. And there's some really powerful innovation being created by the blockchain community. Crypto and blockchain are really at the heart of a new decentralized platform being built out. And where today, you got a few, large internet companies. They control the protocols and the platform. Now the aspiration of people like yourself, is to create new value opportunities. And there are many more chances for the little guys and girls to get in on the ground floor and blockchain technology underpins all this. So Nick, what's your take, what are some of the biggest misconceptions around blockchain and crypto? And do you even pair those two in the same context? What are your thoughts? >> So, I mean, really, we like to separate ourselves and say that we are a blockchain company, as opposed to necessarily saying(indistinct) anything like that. We leverage those tools. We leverage cryptocurrencies, we leverage NFTs and those types of things within there, but blockchain is a technology, which is the underlying piece, is something that can be used and utilized in a very large number of different organizations out there. So, cryptocurrency and a lot of that negative context comes with a fear of something new, without having that regulation in place, without having the rules in place. And we were a big proponent of, we want the regulation, right? We want to do right. We want to do it by the rules. We want to do it under the context of, this is what should be done. And we also want to help write those rules as well, because a lot of the lawmakers, a lot of the lobbyists and things, they have a certain aspect or a certain goal of when they're trying to get these things. Our goal is simplicity. We want the ability for the normal average person to be able to interact with crypto, interact with NFTs, interact with the blockchain. And basically by saying, blockchain in quotes, it's very ambiguous 'cause there's many different things that blockchain can be, the easiest way, right? The easiest way to understand blockchain is simply a distributed database. That's really the core of what blockchain is. It's a record keeping mechanism that allows you to reference that. And the beauty of it, is that it's quote unquote immutable. You can't edit that data. So, especially when we're talking about blockchain, being underlying for technologies in the future, things like security, where you have logging, you have keeping, whether you're talking about sales, where you may have to have multiple different locations (indistinct) users from different locations around the globe. It creates a central repository that provides distribution and security in the way that you're ensuring your data, ensuring the validation of where that data exists when it was created. Those types of things that blockchain really is. If you go to the historical, right, the very early on Bitcoin absolutely was made to have a way of not having to deal with the fed. That was the core functionality of the initial crypto. And then you had a lot of the illicit trades, those black markets that jumped onto it because of what it could do. The maturity of the technology though, of where we are now versus say back in 97 is a much different world of blockchain, and there's a much different world of cryptocurrency. You still have to be careful because with any fed, you're still going to have that FUD that goes out there and sells that fear, uncertainty and doubt, which spurs a lot of those types of scams, and a lot of those things that target end users that we face as security professionals today. You still get mailers that go out, looking for people to give their social security number over during tax time. Snail mail is considered a very ancient technology, but it still works. You still get a portion of the population that falls for those tricks, fishing, whatever it might be. It's all about trying to make sure that you have fear about what is that change. And I think that as we move forward, and move into the future, the simpler and the more comfortable these types of technologies become, the easier it is to utilize and indoctrinate normal users, to be able to use these things. >> You know, I want to ask you about that, Nick, because you mentioned immutability, there's a lot of misconceptions about that. I had somebody tell me one time, "Blockchain's Bs," and they say, "Well, oh, hold on a second. They say, oh, they say it's a mutable, but you can hack Coinbase, whatever it is." So I guess a couple of things, one is that the killer app for blockchain became money. And so we learned a lot through that. And you had Bitcoin and it really wasn't programmable through its interface. And then Ethereum comes out. I know, you know a lot about Ether and you have solidity, which is a lot simpler, but it ain't JavaScript, which is ubiquitous. And so now you have a lot of potential for the initial ICO's and probably still the ones today, the white papers, a lot of security flaws in there. I'm sure you can talk to that, but maybe you can help square that circle about immutability and security. I've mentioned game theory before, it's harder to hack Bitcoin and the Bitcoin blockchain than it is to mine. So that's why people mine, but maybe you could add some context to that. >> Yeah, you know it goes to just about any technology out there. Now, when you're talking about blockchain specifically, the majority of the attacks happen with the applications and the smart contracts that are actually running on the blockchain, as opposed to necessarily the blockchain itself. And like you said, the impact for whether that's loss of revenue or loss of tokens or whatever it is, in most cases that results from something that was a phishing attack, you gave up your credentials, somebody said, paste your private key in here, and you win a cookie or whatever it might be, but those are still the fundamental pieces. When you're talking about various different networks out there, depending on the blockchain, depends on how much the overall security really is. The more distributed it is, and the more stable it is as the network goes, the better or the more stable any of the code is going to be. The underlying architecture of any system is the key to success when it comes to the overall security. So the blockchain itself is immutable, in the case that the owner are ones have to be trusted. If you look at distributed networks, something like Ethereum or Bitcoin, where you have those proof of work systems, that disperses that information at a much more remote location, So the more disperse that information is, the less likely it is to be able to be impacted by one small instance. If you look at like the DAO Hack, or if you look at a lot of the other vulnerabilities that exist on the blockchain, it's more about the code. And like you said, solidity being as new as it is, it's not JavaScript. The industry is very early and very infantile, as far as the developers that are skilled in doing this. And with that just comes the inexperience and the lack of information that you don't learn until JavaScript is 10 or 12 years old. >> And the last thing I'll say about this topic, and we'll move on to NFTs, but NFTs relate is that, again, I said earlier that the big internet giants have pretty much co-opted the platform. You know, if you wanted to invest in Linux in the early days, there was no way to do that. You maybe have to wait until red hat came up with its IPO and there's your pyramid scheme folks. But with crypto it, which is again, as Nick was explaining underpinning is the blockchain, you can actually participate in early projects. Now you got to be careful 'cause there are a lot of scams and many of them are going to blow out if not most of them, but there are some, gems out there, because as Nick was describing, you've got this decentralized platform that causes scaling issues or performance issues, and people are solving those problems, essentially building out a new internet. But I want to get into NFTs, because it's sort of the next big thing here before we get into the metaverse, what Nick, why should people pay attention to NFTs? Why do they matter? Are they really an important trend? And what are the societal and technological impacts that you see in this space? >> Yeah, I mean, NFTs are a very new technology and ultimately it's just another entry on the blockchain. It's just another piece of data in the database. But how it's leveraged in the grand scheme of how we, as users see it, it can be the classic idea of an NFT is just the art, or as good as the poster on your wall. But in the case of some of the new applications, is where are you actually get that utility function. Now, in the case of say video games, video games and gamers in general, already utilize digital items. They already utilize digital points. As in the case of like Call of Duty points, those are just different versions of digital currencies. You know, World of Warcraft Gold, I like to affectionately say, was the very first cryptocurrency. There was a Harvard course taught on the economy of WOW, there was a black market where you could trade your end game gold for Fiat currencies. And there's even places around the world that you can purchase real world items and stay at hotels for World of Warcraft Gold. So the adoption of blockchain just simply gives a more stable and a more diverse technology for those same types of systems. You're going to see that carry over into shipping and logistics, where you need to have data that is single repository for being able to have multiple locations, multiple shippers from multiple global efforts out there that need to have access to that data. But in the current context, it's either sitting on a shipping log, it's sitting on somebody's desk. All of those types of paper transactions can be leveraged as NFTs on the blockchain. It's just simply that representation. And once you break the idea of this is just a piece of art, or this is a cryptocurrency, you get into a world where you can apply that NFT technology to a lot more things than I think most people think of today. >> Yeah, and of course you mentioned art a couple of times when people sold as digital art for whatever, it was 60, 65 million, 69 million, that caught a lot of people's attention, but you're seeing, I mean, there's virtually infinite number of applications for this. One of the Washington wizards, tokenized portions of his contract, maybe he was creating a new bond, that's really interesting use cases and opportunities, and that kind of segues into the latest, hot topic, which is the metaverse. And you've said yourself that blockchain and NFTs are the foundation of the metaverse, they're foundational elements. So first, what is the metaverse to you and where do blockchain and NFTs, fit in? >> Sure, so, I mean, I affectionately refer to the metaverse just a VR and essentially, we've been playing virtual reality games and all the rest for a long time. And VR has really kind of been out there for a long time. So most people's interpretation or idea of what the metaverse is, is a virtual reality version of yourself and this right, that idea of once it becomes yourself, is where things like NFT items, where blockchain and digital currencies are going to come in, because if you have a manufacturer, so you take on an organization like Nike, and they want to put their shoes into the metaverse because we, as humans, want to individualize ourselves. We go out and we want to have that one of one shoe or that, t-shirt or whatever it is, we're going to want to represent that same type of individuality in our virtual self. So NFTs, crypto and all of those digital currencies, like I was saying that we've known as gamers are going to play that very similar role inside of the metaverse. >> Yeah. Okay. So basically you're going to take your physical world into the metaverse. You're going to be able to, as you just mentioned, acquire things- I loved your WOW example. And so let's stay on this for a bit, if we may, of course, Facebook spawned a lot of speculation and discussion about the concept of the metaverse and really, as you pointed out, it's not new. You talked about why second life, really started in 2003, and it's still around today. It's small, I read recently, it's creators coming back into the company and books were written in the early 90s that used the term metaverse. But Nick, talk about how you see this evolving, what role you hope to play with your company and your community in the future, and who builds the metaverse, when is it going to be here? >> Yeah, so, I mean, right now, and we actually just got back from CES last week. And the Metaverse is a very big buzzword. You're going to see a lot of integration of what people are calling, quote unquote, the metaverse. And there was organizations that were showing virtual office space, virtual malls, virtual concerts, and those types of experiences. And the one thing right now that I don't think that a lot of organizations have grasp is how to make one metaverse. There's no real player one, if you will always this yet, There's a lot of organizations that are creating their version of the metaverse, which then again, just like every other software and game vendor out there has their version of cryptocurrency and their version of NFTs. You're going to see it start to pop up, especially as Oculus is going to come down in price, especially as you get new technologies, like some of the VR glasses that look more augmented reality and look more like regular glasses that you're wearing, things like that, the easier that those technologies become as in adopting into our normal lifestyle, as far as like looks and feels, the faster that stuff's going to actually come out to the world. But when it comes to like, what we're doing is we believe that the metaverse should actually span multiple different blockchains, multiple different segments, if you will. So what ORE system is doing, is we're actually building the underlying architecture and technologies for developers to bring their metaverse too. You can leverage the ORE Systems NFTs, where we like to call our utility NFTs as an in-game item in one game, or you can take it over and it could be a t-shirt in another game. The ability for having that cross support within the ecosystem is what really no one has grasp on yet. Most of the organizations out there are using a very classic business model. Get the user in the game, make them spend their money in the game, make all their game stuff as only good in their game. And that's where the developer has you, they have you in their bubble. Our goal, and what we like to affectionately say is, we want to bring white collar tools and technology to blue collar folks, We want to make it simple. We want to make it off the shelf, and we want to make it a less cost prohibitive, faster, and cheaper to actually get out to all the users. We do it by supporting the technology. That's our angle. If you support the technology and you support the platform, you can build a community that will build all of the metaverse around them. >> Well, and so this is interesting because, if you think about some of the big names, we've Microsoft is talking about it, obviously we mentioned Facebook. They have essentially walled gardens. Now, yeah, okay, I could take Tik Tok and pump it into Instagram is fine, but they're really siloed off. And what you're saying is in the metaverse, you should be able to buy a pair of sneakers in one location and then bring it to another one. >> Absolutely, that's exactly it. >> And so my original kind of investment in attractiveness, if you will, to crypto, was that, the little guy can get an early, but I worry that some of these walled gardens, these big internet giants are going to try to co-op this. So I think what you're doing is right on, and I think it's aligned with the objectives of consumers and the users who don't want to be forced in to a pen. They want to be able to live freely. And that's really what you're trying to do. >> That's exactly it. You know, when you buy an item, say a Skin in Fortnite or Skin in Call of Duty, it's only good in that game. And not even in the franchise, it's only good in that version of the game. In the case of what we want to do is, you can not only have that carry over and your character. So say you buy a really cool shirt, and you've got that in your Call of Duty or in our case, we're really Osiris Protocol, which is our proof of concept video game to show that this all thing actually works, but you can actually go in and you can get a gun in Osiris Protocol. And if we release, Osiris Protocol two, you'll be able to take that to Osiris Protocol two. Now the benefit of that is, is you're going to be the only one in the next version with that item, if you haven't sold it or traded it or whatever else. So we don't lock you into a game. We don't lock you into a specific application. You own that, you can trade that freely with other users. You can sell that on the open market. We're embracing what used to be considered the black market. I don't understand why a lot of video games, we're always against the skins and mods and all the rest. For me as a gamer and coming up, through the many, many years of various different Call of Duties and everything in my time, I wish I could still have some this year. I still have a World of Warcraft account. I wasn't on, Vanilla, Burning Crusade was my foray, but I still have a character. If you look at it that way, if I had that wild character and that gear was NFTs, in theory, I could actually pass that onto my kid who could carry on that character. And it would actually increase in value because they're NFT back then. And then if needed, you could trade those on the open market and all the rest. It just makes gaming a much different thing. >> I love it. All right, Nick, hey, we're out of time, but I got to say, Nick Donarski, thanks so much for coming on the program today, sharing your insights and really good luck to you and building out your technology platform and your community. >> Thank you, sir, it's been an absolute pleasure. >> And thank you for watching. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts, just search "Breaking Analysis Podcast", and you'll find them. I publish pretty much every week on siliconangle.com and wikibond.com. And you can reach me @dvellante on Twitter or comment on my LinkedIn posts. You can always email me david.vellante@siliconangle.com. And don't forget, check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR, happy 2022 be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Despite the more than $100 billion spent each year fighting Cyber-crime. When we do an end-of-the year look back and ask "How did we do?" The answer is invariably the same, "Worse than last year." Pre pandemic, the picture was disheartening, but since March of 2020 the situation has only worsened as cyber-criminals have become increasingly sophisticated, better funded and more brazen. SecOps pros continue to fight, but unlike conventional wars, this one has no end. Now the flip side of course, is that markets continue to value cybersecurity firms at significant premiums. Because this huge market will continue to grow by double digits for the foreseeable future. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we look at the state of cybersecurity in 2021 and beyond. We'll update you with the latest survey data from enterprise technology research and share the fundamentals that have investors piling into the security space like never before. Let's start with the customer view. Cybersecurity remains the number one priority for CIOs and CSOs. This latest ETR survey, once again asked IT buyers to rank their top priorities for the next 12 months. Now the last three polling period dating back to last March. Cybersecurity has outranked every top spending category, including cloud, data analytics, productivity software, networking, AI, and automation or RPA. Now this shouldn't surprise anybody, but it underscores the challenges that organizations face. Not only are they in the midst of a non-optional digital transformation, but they have to also fund a cyber war that has no ceasefires, no truces, and no exit path. Now there's much more going on in cybersecurity than ransomware, but certainly that has the attention of executives. And it's becoming more and more lucrative for attackers. Here's a snapshot of some of the more well-documented attacks this decade many which have occurred in very recent months. CNA Financial, they got hit earlier this year and paid a $40 million ransom. The Ireland Health Service also got hit this year and refused to pay the ransom, but it's estimated that the cost to recover and the damage to the organization exceeded half a billion dollars. The request was for a $20 million ransom. The JBS meat company hack, they paid $11 million. CWT travel paid $5 million. The disruption from the Colonial Pipeline company, was widely reported they paid more than $4 million, as the Brenntag, the chemical company. The NBA got hit. Computer makers, Quanta and Acer also. More than 2,000 random attacks were reported to the FBI in the first seven months of 2021. Up more than 60% from 2020. Now, as I've said many times, you don't have to be a genius to be a ransomware as today. Anyone can go on the dark web, tap into ransomware as a service. Attackers, they have insidious names like darkside, evil, the cobalt, crime gang, wizard spider, the Lazarus gang, and numerous others. Criminals they have negotiation services is most typically the attackers, they'll demand a specific amount of money but they're willing to compromise in an exchange of cryptocurrency for decryption keys. And as mentioned, it's not just ransomware supply chain attacks like the solar winds hack hit organizations within the U.S government and companies like Mimecast this year. Now, while these attacks often do end up in a ransom situation. The attackers sometimes find it more lucrative to live off the land and stealth fashion and ex filtrates sensitive data that can be sold or in the case of many financial institution attacks they'll steal information from say a chief investment officer that signals an upcoming trading strategy and then the attackers will front run that trade in the stock market. Now, of course phishing, remains one of the most prominent threats. Only escalated by the work from home trend as users bring their own devices and of course home networks are less secure. So it's bad, worse than ever before. But you know, if there's a problem, entrepreneurs and investors, they're going to be there to solve it. So here's a LinkedIn post from one of the top investors in the business, Mike Speiser. He was a founding investor in Snowflake. He helped get pure storage to escape velocity and many, many other successes. This hit my LinkedIn feed the other day, his company Sutter Hill Ventures is co-leading a 1.3 Series D on an $8.3 billion valuation. They're putting in over $200 million. Now Lacework is a threat detection software company that looks at security as a data problem and they monitor exposures across clouds. So very timely. So watch that company. They're going to soar. Now the right hand chart shows venture investments in cybersecurity over the past several years. You can see it exploded in 2019 to $7.6 billion. And people thought the market was peaking at that time, if you recall. But then investments rose a little bit to $7.8 billion in 2020 right in the middle of lockdown. And then the hybrid work, the cloud, the new normal thesis kicked in big time. It's in full gear this year. You can see nearly $12 billion invested in cybersecurity in the first half of 2021 alone. So the money keeps coming in as the problem gets worse and the market gets more crowded. Now we'd like to show this slide from Optiv, it's their security taxonomy. It'll make your eyes cross. It's so packed with companies in different sectors. We'll put a link in our posts, so you can stare at this. We've used this truck before. It's pretty good. It's comprehensive and it's worth spending some time to see what that landscape looks like. But now let's reduce this down a bit and bring in some of the ETR data. This is survey data from October that shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share or pervasiveness in the dataset on the horizontal axis. That's a measure of mentioned share if you will. Now this is just isolated on the information security sector within the ETR taxonomies. No filters in terms of the number of responses. So it's every company that ETR picks up in cybersecurity from its buyer surveys. Now companies above that red line, we consider them to have a highly elevated spending momentum for their products and services. And you can see, there are a lot of companies that are in this map first of all, and several above that magic mark. So you can see the momentum of Microsoft and Palo Alto. That's most impressive because of their size, their pervasiveness in the study, Cisco and Splunk are also quite prominent. They don't have as much spending momentum, but they're pretty respectable. And you can see the companies that have been real movers in this market that we've been reporting on for a while. Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, CyberArk, SailPoint, Authzero, all companies that we've extensively covered in previous breaking analysis episodes as the up and comers. And isn't it interesting that Datadog is now showing up in the vertical axis. You see that in the left-hand side up high, they're becoming more and more competitive to Splunk in this space as an alternative and lines are blurring between observability, log analytics, security, and as we previously reported even backup and recovery. But now let's simplify this picture a bit more and filter down a little bit further. This chart shows the same X, Y view. Same data construct and framework, but we required more than a hundred responses to hit the chart. So the companies, they have to have a notable market presence in the ETR survey. It's perhaps a bit less crowded, but still very packed. Isn't it? You can see firms that are less prominent in the space like Datadog fell off. The big companies we mentioned, obviously still prominent Microsoft, Palo Alto, Cisco and Splunk and then those with real momentum, they stand out a little bit. There's somewhat smaller, but they're gaining traction in the market. As we felt they would Okta and Auth zero, which Okta acquired as we reported on earlier this year, both showing strength as our CrowdStrike, Zscaler, CyberArk, which does identity and competition with Okta and SentinelOne, which went public mid this year. The company SentinelOne uses AI to do threat detection and has been doing quite well. SalePoint and Proofpoint are right on that red elevated line and then there's a big pack in the middle. Look, this is not an easy market to track. It's virtually every company plays in security. Look, AWS says some of the most advanced security in the business but they're not in the chart specifically, but you see Microsoft is. Because much of AWS security is built into services. Amazon customers heavily rely on the Amazon ecosystem which is in the Amazon marketplace for security products. And often they associate their security spend with those partners and not necessarily Amazon. And you'll see networking companies you see right there, like Juniper and the bottom there and in the ETR data set and the players like VMware in the middle of the pack. They've been really acquisitive for example, with carbon black. And the, of course, you've got a lot of legacy players like McAfee and RSA and IBM. Look, virtually every company has a security story and that will only become more common in the coming years. Now here's another look at the ETR data it's in the raw form, but it'll give you a sense of two things; One is how the data from the previous chart is plotted. And two, it gives you a time series of the data. So the data lists the top companies in the ETR data sets sorted by the October net score in the right most column. Again, that measures spending momentum. So to make the cut here, you had to have more than a hundred mentions which is shown on the left-hand side of the chart that shared N, IE that's shared accounts in the dataset. And you can track the data from last October, July of this year and the most recent October, 2021 survey. So we, drew that red line just about at the 40% net score market coincidentally, there are 10 companies that are over that figure over that bar. We sometimes call out the four star companies. We give four stars to those companies that both are in the top 10 and spending momentum and the top in prominence are shared N in the dataset. So some of these 10 would fit into that profile by that methodology, specifically, Microsoft, Okta, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto networks. They would be the four star companies. Now a couple of other things to point out here, DDoS attacks, they're still relevant, and they're real threat. So a company like CloudFlare which is just above that red line they play in that space. Now we've also shaded the companies in the fat middle. A lot of these companies like Cisco and Splunk for example, they're major players in the security space with very strong offerings and customer affinity. We sometimes give them two stars. So this is what makes this market so interesting. It's not like the high end discourage market where literally every vendor in the Gartner magic quadrant is up in the right, okay. And there's only five or four or five, six vendors there. This market is diverse with many, many segments and sub segments, and it's such a vital space. And there's so many holes to fill with an ever changing threat landscape as we've seen in the last two years. So this is in part which makes it such a good market for investors. There's a lot of room for growth and not just from stealing market share. That's certainly an opportunity there, but things like cloud, multi-cloud, shifting end points, the edge ,and so forth make this space really ripe for investments. And to underscore this, we put together this little chart of some of the pure play security firms to see how their stock performance has done recently. So you can see that here, you know, it's a little hard to read, but it's not hard to see that Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler on the left have been big movers. These charts where possible all show a cross here, starting at the lockdown last year. The only exception is SentinelOne which IPO mid this year. So that's the point March, 2020 when the whole world changed and security priorities really started to shift to accommodate the work from home. But it's quite obvious that since the pandemic, these six companies have been on a tear for the fundamental reason that hybrid work has created a shift in spending priorities for CSOs. No longer are organizations just spending on hardening a perimeter, that perimeter has been blown away. The network is flattening. Work is what you do, it's no longer a place. As such threats are on the rise and cloud, endpoint security, identity access tools there become increasingly vital and the vendors who provide them are on the rise. So it's no surprise that the players that we've listed here which play quite prominently in those markets are all on fire. So now in summary, I want to stress that while the picture is sometimes discouraging. The entire world is becoming more and more tuned in to the cyber threat. And that's a good thing. Money is pouring in. Look, technology got us into this problem and technology is a defensive weapon that will help us continue this fight. But it's going to take more than technology. And I want to share something. We get dozens and dozens of in bounds this time of the year because we do an annual predictions posts. So folks and they want to help us out. So now most of the in bounds and the predictions that we get, they're just kind of observations or frankly, non predictions that can't really be measured as like where you right, or where you're wrong. So for the most part I like predictions that are binary. For example, last December we predicted their IT spending in 2021 would rebound and grow at 4% relative to 2020. Well, it did rebound but that prediction really wasn't as accurate as I'd like. It was frankly wrong. We think it's actually the market's going to actually grow. Spending's going to grow more like 7% this year. Not to worry plenty of our predictions came true, but we'll leave that for another day. Anyway, I got an email from Dean Fisk of Fisk partners. It's a PR firm representing an individual named Lyndon Brown chief of strategy officer of Pondurance. Pondurance is a security consultancy. And the email had the standard, Hey, in case you're working on a predictions post this year end, blah, blah, blah. But instead of sharing with me, a bunch of non predictions, the notes said here's some trends in cybersecurity that might be worth thinking about. And there were a few predictions sprinkled in there, but I wanted to call it a couple of the comments from Linden Brown, whom I don't know, I never met the guy, but I really thought his trends were spot on. The first was a stat I'll share that the United Nations report cyber crime is up 600% due to the pandemic. If as if I couldn't feel worse already. His first point though was that the hybrid workplace will be the new frontier for cyber. Yes, we totally agree. There are permanent shifts taking place. And we actually predicted that last year, but he further cited that many companies went from zero to full digital transformation overnight and many are still on that journey. And his point is that hybrid work is going to require a complete overhaul of how we think about security. We think this is very true. Now the other point that stood out is that governments are going to crack down on this behavior. And we've seen this where criminals have had their critical infrastructure dismantled by governments. No doubt the U.S government has the capabilities to do so. And it is very much focused on this issue. But it's tricky as Robert Gates, who was the former defense secretary, told me a few years back in theCUBE. He said, well, we have the best offense. We also have the most to lose. So we have to be very careful, but Linden's key point was you are going to see a much more forward and aggressive public policy and new laws that give crime fighters more latitude . Again, it's tricky kind of like the Patriot act was tricky but it's coming. Now, another call-out from Linden shares his assertion that natural disasters will bring increased cyber risk. And I thought this was a really astute point because natural disasters they're on the rise. And when there's chaos, there's cash opportunities for criminals. And I'll add to this that the supply chain risk is far from over. This is going to be continuing theme this coming year and beyond. And one of the things that Linden Brown said in his note to me is essentially you can't take humans out of the equation. Automation alone can't solve the problem, but some companies operate as though they can. Just as bad human behavior, can tramp good security, Good human education and behavior is going to be a key weapon in this endless war. Now the last point is we're going to see continued escalation government crackdowns are going to bring retaliation and to Gates' point. The U.S has a lot at stake. So expect insurance premiums are going to go through the roof. That's assuming you can even get cyber insurance. And so we got to hope for the best, but for sure, we have to plan for the worst because it's coming. Deploy technology aggressively but people in process will ultimately be the other ingredients that allow us to live to battle for another day. Okay. That's a wrap for today. Remember these episodes they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen just search "breaking analysis" podcast. Check out ETR his website at ETR.plus. We also publish a full report every week on Wikibond.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch. Email me @david.volante@tsiliconangle.com or you can DM me @dvellante. Comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Have a great week. everybody stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (techno music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> Cisco is a company at the crossroads. It's transitioning from a high margin hardware business to a software subscription-based model, which also should be high margin through both organic moves and targeted acquisitions. It's doing so in the context of massive macro shifts to digital in the cloud. We believe Cisco's dominant position in networking combined with a large market opportunity and a strong track record of earning customer trust, put the company in a good position to capitalize on cloud momentum. However, there are clear challenges ahead for Cisco, not the least of which is the growing complexity of its portfolio, a large legacy business, and the mandate to maintain its higher profitability profile as it transitions into a new business model. Hello and welcome to this week's Wiki-bond cube insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we welcome in Zeus Kerravala, who's the founder and principal analyst at ZK Research, long time Cisco watcher who together with me crafted the premise of today's session. Zeus, great to see you welcome to the program. >> Thanks Dave. It's always a pleasure to be with you guys. >> Okay, here's what we're going to talk about today, set the agenda. The catalyst for this session, Zeus and I attended Cisco's financial analyst day. We received a day and a half of firehose presentations, drill downs, interactions, Q and A with Cisco execs and one key customer. So we're going to share our takeaways from these sessions and add our additional thoughts. Now, in particular, we're going to talk about Cisco's TAM, its transformation to a subscription-based model, and how we see that evolving. As always, we're going to bring in some ETR spending data for context and get Zeus' take on what that tells us. And we'll end with a summary of Cisco's cloud strategy and outlook for how it could win in the cloud. So let's talk about Cisco's sort of structure and TAM opportunities. First, Zeus, Cisco has four main lines of business where it's organized it's executives around sort of four product areas. And it's got a large service component as well. Network equipment, SP routing, data center, collaboration that security, and as I say services, that's not necessarily how it's going to market, but that's kind of the way it organizes its ELT, its executive leadership team. >> Yeah, the in fact, the ELT has been organized around those products, as you said. It used to report to the street three product segments, infrastructure platforms, which was by far the biggest, it was all their networking equipment, then applications, and then security. Now it's moved to five new segments, secure agile networks, hybrid work, end to end security, internet for the future and optimized app experiences. And I think what Cisco's trying to do is align their, the way they report along the lines of the way customers buy. 'Cause I think before, you know, they had a very simplistic model before. It was just infrastructure, apps, and security. The ELT is organized around product roadmap and the product innovation, but that's not necessarily the way customers purchase things and so, purchase things so I think they've tried to change things a little bit there. When you look at those segments though, you know, by, it's interesting. They're all big, right? So, by far the biggest distilled networking, which is almost a hundred billion dollar TAM as they reported and they have it growing a about a 9% CAGR as reported by other analyst firms. And when you think about how mature networking is Dave, the fact that that's still growing at high single digit CAGR is still pretty remarkable. So I think that's one of those things that, you know, watchers of Cisco historically have been calling for the network to be commoditized for decades. For as long as I've been watching Cisco, we've been, people have been waiting for the network to be commoditized. My thesis has always been, if you can drive enough innovation into things, you can stave off commoditization and that's what they've done. But that's really the anchor for them to sell all their other products, some of which are higher margin, some which are a little bit sore, but they're all good high margin businesses to your point. >> Awesome. We're going to dig into that. So, so they flattened the organization when Geckler left. You've got Todd Nightingale, Jonathan Davidson, Liz Centoni, and Jeetu Patel who we heard from and we'll make some comments on what we heard from them. One of the big takeaways at the financial analysts meeting was on the TAM, as you just mentioned. Liz Centoni who also is heavily involved in strategy and the CFO Scott Herren, showed this slide, which speaks to the company's TAM and the organizational structure that you were just talking about. So the big message was that Cisco has got a large and growing market, you know, no shortage of available market. Somewhere between eight and 900 billion, depending on which of the slides you pull out of the deck. And ironically Zeus, when you look at the current markets number here on the right hand side of this slide, 260 billion, it just about matches the company's market cap. Maybe an interesting coincidence, but at any rate, what was your takeaway from this data? >> Well, I think, you know, the big takeaway from the data is there's still a lot of room ahead for Cisco to grow, right? Again, this is a, it's a company that I think most people would put in the camp of legacy IT vendor, just because of how long they've been around. But they have done a very good job of staving off innovation. And part of that is just these markets that they play in continue to grow and they continue to have challenges that they can solve. I think one of the things Cisco has done though, since the arrival of Chuck Robbins, is they don't fight these trends anymore, Dave. I know prior to Chuck's arrival, they really fought the tide of software defined networking and you know, trends like that, and even cloud to some extent. And I remember one of the first meetings I had with Chuck, I asked him about that and he said that Cisco will never do that again. That under his watch, if customers are going through a market transition, Cisco wants to lead them through it, not try and hold them back. And I think for that reason, they're able to look at, all of those trends and try and take a leadership position in them, even though you might look at some of those and feel that some of them might be detrimental to Cisco's business in the short term. So something like software defined WANs, which you would throw into secure agile networks, certainly doesn't, may not carry the same kind of RPOs and margins with it that their traditional routers did, but ultimately customers are going to buy it and Cisco would like to be the ones to sell it to them. >> You know, you bring up a great point. This industry is littered, there's a graveyard of executives who fought the trend. Many people, some people remember Ken Olson of Digital Equipment Corporation. "Unix is snake oil," is what he said. IBM mainframe guys said, "PCs are a toy." And of course the history, they were the wrong side of history. The other big takeaway was the shift to software in subscription. They really made a big point of this. Here's a chart Cisco showed a couple of times to make the point that it's one of the largest software companies in the world. You know, in the top 10. They also made the point that Chuck Robbins, when he joined in 2015, and since that time, it's nearly 4x'ed it's subscription software revenue, and roughly doubled its software sales. And it now has an RPO, remaining performance obligations, that exceeds 30 billion. And it's committing to grow its subscription business in the forward-looking statements by 15 to 17% CAGR through 25, which would imply about a doubling of these, the blue lines. Zeus, it's unclear if that forward-looking forecast is just software. I presume it includes some services, but as Herren pointed out, over time, these services will be bundled into the product revenue, same way SAS companies do it. But the point is Cisco is committed, like many of their peers, to moving to an ARR model. But please, share your thoughts on Cisco's move to software subscriptions and how you see the future of consumption-based pricing. >> Yeah, this has been a big shift for Cisco, obviously. It's one that's highly disruptive. It's one that I know gave their partners a lot of angst for a long time because when you sell things upfront, you get a big check for selling that, right? And when you sell things in a subscription model, you get a much smaller check for a number of months over the period of the contract. It also changes the way you deal with the customer. When you sell a one-time product, you basically wipe your hands. You come back in three or four years and say, "it's time to upgrade." When you sell a subscription, now, the one thing that I've tried to talk to Cisco and its partners about is customers don't renew things they don't use. And so it becomes incumbent on the partner, it becomes incumbent upon Cisco to make sure that things that the customer is subscribing to, that they do use. And so Cisco's had to create a customer success organization. They've had to help their partners create those customer success organizations. So it's really changed the model. And Cisco not only made the shift, they've done it faster than they actually had originally forecast. So during the financial analyst day, they actually touted their execution on software, noting that it hit it's 30% revenue as percent of total target well before it was supposed to, it's actually exceeded its targets. And now it's looking to increase that to, it actually raised its guidance in this area a little bit by a few percentage points, looking out over the next few years. And so it's moved to the subscription model, Dave, the thing that you brought up, which I do see as somewhat of a challenge is the shift to consumption-based pricing. So subscription is one thing in that I write you a check every month for the same amount. When I go to the consumption-based pricing, that's easy to do for cloud services, things like WebEx or Duo or, you know, CloudLock, some of the security products. That that shift should be relatively simple. If customers want to buy it that way. It's unclear as to how you do that when you're selling on-prem equipment with the software add-on to it because in that case, you have to put metering technology in to understand how much they're using. You have to have a minimum baseline to start with. They've done it in some respects. The old HCS product that they sold, the Telcos, actually was sold with a minimum commit and then they tacked on a utilization on top of that. So maybe they move into that kind of model. But I know it's something that they've, they get asked about a lot. I know they're still thinking about it, but it's something that I believe is coming and it's going to come pretty fast. >> I want to pick up on that because I think, you know, they made the point that we're one of the top 10 software companies in the world. It's very difficult for hardware companies to make the transition to software. You know, HP couldn't do it. >> Well, no one's done it. >> Well, IBM has kind of done it, but they really struggle. It's kind of this mishmash of tooling and software products that aren't really well-integrated. But, I would say this, everybody now, Cisco, Dell, HPE with GreenLake, Lenovo, pretty much all the traditional hardware players are trying to move to an as a service model or at least for a portion of their business. HPE's all in, Dell transitioning. And for the most part, I would make the following observation. And I'd love to get your thoughts on this. They're pretty much following a SAS like model, which in my view is outdated and kind of flawed from a customer standpoint. All these guys say, "Hey, we're doing this because "this is what the customers want." I think the cloud is really a true consumption based model. And if you look at modern SAS companies, a lot of the startups, they're moving to a consumption based model. You see that with Snowflake, you see that with Stripe. Now they will offer incentives. But most of the traditional enterprise players, they're saying, "Okay, pay us upfront, "commit to some base level. "If you go over it, you know, "we'll charge you for it. "If you go under it, you're still going to pay "for that base level." So it's not true consumption base. It's not really necessarily the customer's best interest. So that's, I think there's some learnings there that are going to have to play out. >> Yeah, the reason customers are shying away from that SAS type model, I think during the pandemic, the one thing we learned, Dave, is that the business will ebb and flow greatly from month to month sometimes. And I was talking with somebody that worked for one of the big hotel chains, and she was telling me that what their CRM providers, she wouldn't tell me who it was, except said it rhymed with Shmalesforce, that their utilization of it went from, you know, from a nice steady level to spiking really high when customers started calling in to cancel hotel rooms. And then it dropped down to almost nothing as we went through that period of stay at home. And now it's risen back up. And so for her, she wanted to move to a consumption-based model because what happens otherwise is you wind up buying for peak utilization, your software subscriptions go largely underutilized the majority of the year, and you wind up paying, you know, a lot more than you need to. If you go to more of a true consumption model, it's harder to model out from a financial perspective 'cause there's a lot of ebbs and flows in the business, but over a longer period of time, it's more cost-effective, right? And so the, again, what the pandemic taught us was we don't really know what we're going to need from a consumption standpoint, you know, nevermind a year from now, maybe even six months from now. And consumption just creates a lot more flexibility and agility. You can scale up, you can scale down. You can bring in users, you can take out users, you can add consultants, things like that. And it just, it's much more aligned with the way businesses are run today. >> Yeah, churn is a silent killer of a software company. And so there's retention is the key here. So again, I think there's lots of learning. Let's put Cisco into context with some of its peers. So this chart we developed compares five companies to Cisco. Core Dell, meaning Dell, without VMware. VMware, HPE, IBM, we've put an AWS, and then Cisco as, IBM, AWS and Cisco is the integrated plays. So the chart shows the latest quarterly revenue multiplied by four to get a run rate, a three-year growth outlook, gross margin percentage, market cap, and revenue multiple. And the key points here are that one, Cisco has got a pretty awesome business model. It's got 60% gross margin, strong operating margins, not shown here, but in the mid twenties, 25%. It's got a higher growth rate than most of its peers. And as such, a much better, multiple than say, for instance, Core Dell gets 33 cents on the revenue dollar. HPE is double that. IBM's below two X. Cisco's revenue multiple rivals VMware, which is a pure software company. Now in a large part that's because VMware stock took a hit recently, but still the point is obvious. Cisco's got a great business. Now for context, we've added AWS, which blows away any company on this chart. We've inferred a market cap of nearly 600 billion, which frankly is conservative at a 10 X revenue multiple given it's inferred margins and growth rate. Now Zeus, if AWS were a separate company, it could have a market cap that approached 800 billion in my view. But what does this data tell you? >> Well, it just tells me that Cisco continues to be a very well-run company that has staved off commoditization, despite the calling for it for years. And I think the big lesson, and I've talked to financial analysts about this over the years, is that if, I don't really believe anything in this world is a commodity, Dave. I think even when Cisco went to the server market, if you remember back then, they created a new way of handling memory management. They were getting well above average margins for service, albeit less than Cisco's network margins, but still above average for server margins. And so I think if you can continue to innovate, you will see the margin stay where they are. You will see customers continue to buy and refresh. And I think one of the challenges Cisco's had in the past, and this is where the subscription business will help, is getting customers to stay with the latest and greatest. Prior to this refresh of network equipment, some of the stuff that I've seen in the fields, 10, 15 years old, once you move to that sell me a box and then tack on the subscription revenue that you pay month by month, you do drive more consistent refresh. Think about the way you just handle your own mobile phone. If you had to go pay, you know, a thousand dollars every three years, you might not do it at that three-year cycle. If you pay 40 bucks a month, every time there's a new phone, you're going to take it, right? So I think Cisco is able to drive greater, better refresh, keep their customers current, keep the features in there. And we've seen that with a lot of the new products. The new Cat 9,000, some of the new service provider products, the new wifi products, they've all done very well. In fact, they've all outpaced their previous generation products as far as growth rate goes. And so I think that is a testament to the way they've run the business. But I do think when people bucket Cisco in with HP and Dell, and I understand why they do, their businesses were similar at one time, it's really not a true comparison anymore. I think Cisco has completely changed their business and they're not trying to commoditize markets, they're trying to drive innovation and keep the margins up, where I think HP and Dell tend to really compete on price versus innovation. >> Well, and we are going to get to this point about the tailwinds and headwinds and cloud, and how Cisco to do it. But, to your point about, you know, the cell phone analogy. To the extent that Cisco can make that seamless for customers could hide that underlying complexity, that's going to be critical for the cloud. Now, but before we get there, I want to talk about one of the reasons why Cisco such a high multiple, and has been able to preserve its margins, to your point, not being commoditized. And it's been able to grow both organically, but also has a strong history of M and A. It's this chart shows a dominant position in core networking. So this shows, so ETR data within the Fortune 500. It plots companies in the ETR taxonomy in two dimensions, net score on the vertical axis, which is a measure of spending velocity, and market share on the horizontal axis, which is a measure of presence in the survey. It's not like IDC market share, it's mentioned market share if you will. The point is Cisco is far and away the most pervasive player in the market, it's generally held its dominant position. Although, it's been under pressure in the last few years in core networking, but it retains or maintains a very respectable net score and consistently performs well for such a large company. Zeus, anything you'd add with respect to Cisco's core networking business? >> Yeah, it's maintained a dominant network position historically. I think part of because it drives good products, but also because the competitive landscape, historically has been pretty weak, right? We saw companies like 3Com and Nortel who aren't around anymore. It'll be interesting to see moving forward now that companies like VMware are involved in networking. AWS is interested in networking. Arista is a much stronger company. You know, Juniper bought Mist and is in better position. Even Extreme Networks who most people thought was dead a few years ago has made a number of acquisitions and is now a billion dollar company. So while Cisco has done a great job of execution, they've done a great job on the innovation side, their competitive landscape, looking out over the next five years, I think is going to be more difficult than it has been over the previous five years. And largely, Dave, I think that's good for Cisco. I think whenever Cisco's pressed a little bit from competition, they tend to step on the innovation gas a little bit more. And I look back and even just the transition when VMware bought Nicira, that got Cisco's SDN business into gear, like nothing else could have, right? So competition for that company, they always seem to respond well to it. >> So, let's break down Cisco's net score a little bit. Explain why the company has been able to hold its spending momentum despite its large size. This will give you a little insight to the survey. So this chart shows the granular components of net score. The lime green is new adoptions to Cisco. The forest green is spending more than 6%. The gray is flat plus or minus 5%. The pink is spending drops by more than 5%. And the red is we're chucking the platform, we're getting off. And Cisco's overall net score here is 25%, which for a company of its size speaks to the relationships that it has with customers. It's of course got a fat middle in the gray area, like all sort of large established companies. But very low defections as well, it's got low new adoptions. But very respectable. So that is background, Zeus. Let's look at spending momentum over time across Cisco's portfolio. So this chart shows Cisco's net score by that methodology within the ETR taxonomy for Cisco over three survey periods. And what jumps out is Meraki on the left, very strong. Virtualization business, its core networking, analytics and security, all showing upward momentum. AppD is a little bit concerning, but that could be related to Cisco's sort of pivot to full stack observability. So maybe AppD is being bundled there. Although some practitioners have cited to us some concerns in that space. And then WebEx at the end of the chart, it's showing some relative strength, but not that high. Zeus, maybe you could comment on Meraki and any other takeaways across the portfolio. >> Yeah, Meraki has proven to be an excellent acquisition for Cisco. In fact, you might, I think it's arguable to say it's its best acquisition in history going all the way back to camp Kalpana and Grand Junction, the ones that brought up catalyst switches. So, in fact, I think Meraki's revenue might be larger than security now. So, that shows you the momentum it has. I think one of the lessons it brought to Cisco was that simpler is better, sometimes. I think when they first bought Meraki, the way Meraki's deployed, it's very easy to set up. There's a lot of engineering work though that goes into making a product simple to use. And I think a lot of Cisco engineers historically looked at Meraki as, that's a little bit of a toy. It's meant for small businesses, things like that, but it's not for enterprise. But, Rocky's done a nice job of expanding the portfolio, of leveraging the cloud for analytics and showing you a lot of things that you wouldn't necessarily get from traditional networking equipment. And one of the things that I was really delighted to see was when they put Todd Nightingale in charge of all the networking business, because that showed to me that Chuck Robbins understood that the things Meraki were doing were right and they infuse a little bit of Meraki into the rest of the company. You know, that's certainly a good thing. The other areas that you showed on the chart, not really a surprise, Dave. When you think of the shift hybrid work and you think of the, some of the other transitions going on, I think you would expect to see the server business in decline, the storage business, you know, maybe in a little bit of decline, just because people aren't building out data centers. Where the other ones are related more to hybrid working, hybrid cloud, things like that. So it is what you would expect. The WebEx one was interesting too, because it did show somewhat of a dip and then a rise. And I think that's indicative of what we've seen in the collaboration space since the pandemic came about. Companies like Zoom and RingCentral really got a lot of the headlines. Again, when you, the comment I made on competition, Cisco got caught a little bit flat-footed, they've caught up in features and now they really stepped on the gas there. Chuck joked that he gave the WebEx team a bit of a blank check to go do what it had to do. And I don't think that was a joke. I think he actually did that because they've added more features into WebEx in the last year then I think they did the previous five years before that. >> Well, let's just drill into video conferencing real quick here, if we could. Here's that two dimensional view, again, showing net score against market share or pervasiveness of mentions, and you can see Microsoft Teams in the upper right. I mean, it's off the chart, literally. Zoom's well ahead of Cisco in terms of, you know, mentions presence. And that could be a spate of freemium, you know, but it's basically a three horse race in this game. And Cisco, I don't think is trying to take Zoom head on, rather it seems to be making WebEx a core part of its broader collaboration agenda. But Zeus, maybe you could comment. >> Well, it's all coming together, right? So, it's hard to decouple calling from video from meetings. All of the vendors, including Teams, are going after the hybrid work experience. And if you believe the future is hybrid and not just work from home, then Cisco does have a pretty interesting advantage because it's the only one that makes its own end points, where Teams and Zoom doesn't. And so that end to end experience it can deliver. The Microsoft Teams one's interesting because that product, frankly, when you talk to users, it doesn't have a great user score, like as far as user satisfaction goes, but the one thing Microsoft has done a very good job of is bundling it in to the Office365 licenses, making it very easy for IT to deploy. Zoom is a little bit in the middle where they've appealed to the users. They've done a better job of appealing to IT, but there is a, there is a battleground now going on where video's not just video. It includes calling, includes meetings, includes room systems now, and I think this hybrid work friend is going to change the way we think about these meeting tools. >> Now we'd be remiss if we didn't spend a moment talking about security as a key part of Cisco's business. And we have a graphic on this same kind of X, Y. And it's been, we've seen several quarters of growth. Although, the last quarter security growth was in the low single digits, but Cisco is a major player in security. And this X, Y graph shows, they've got both a large presence and a solid spending momentum. Not nearly as much momentum as Okta or Zscaler or a CrowdStrike and some of the smaller companies, but they're, these guys are on a rocket ship, but others that we featured in these episodes, but much more than respectable for Cisco. And security is critical to the strategy. It's a big part of the subscriber base. And the last thing, Zeus, I'll say about Cisco made the point in analyst day, that this market is crowded. You can see that in this chart. And their goal is to simplify this picture and make it easier for customers to secure their data and apps. But that's not easy, Zeus. What are your thoughts on Cisco's security opportunities? >> Yeah, I've been waiting for Cisco go to break up in security a little more than it has. I do think, I was talking with a CSO the other day, Dave, that said to me he's starting to understand that you don't have to have best of breed everywhere to have best in class threat protection. In fact, there's a lot of buyers now will tell you that if you try and have best of breed everywhere, it actually creates a negative when it comes to threat protection because keeping all the policies and things up to date is very, very difficult. And so the industry is moving more to a platform model, right? Now, the challenge for Cisco is how do you get that, the customer to think of the network as part of the platform? Because while the platform model, I think, is starting to gain traction, FloridaNet, Palo Alto, even McAfee, companies like that also have their own version of a security platform. And if you look at the financial performance of companies like FloridaNet and Palo Alto over the past, you know, over the past couple of years, they've been through the roof, right? And so I think an interesting and unique challenge for Cisco is can they convince the security buyer that the network is as important a part of that platform as any other component? If they can do that, I think they can break away from the pack. If not, then they'll stay mixed in with those, you know, Palo, FloridaNet, Checkpoint, and, you know, and Cisco, in that mix. But I do think that may present their single biggest needle moving opportunity just because of how big the security TAM is, and the fact that there is no de facto leader in security today. If they could gain the same kind of position in security as they have a networking, who, I mean, that would move the needle like no other market would. >> Yeah, it's really interesting that they're coming at security, obviously from a position of networking strength. You've got, to your point, you've got best of breed, Okta in identity, you got CrowdStrike in endpoint, Zscaler in cloud security. They're all growing like crazy. And you got Cisco and you know, Palo Alto, CSOs tell us they want to work with Palo Alto because they're the thought leader and they're obviously a major player here. You mentioned FloridaNet, there's a zillion others. We could talk all day about security. But let's bring it back to cloud. We've talked about a number of the piece in Cisco's portfolio, and we haven't really spent any time on full stack observability, which is a big push for Cisco with AppD, Intersight and the ThousandEyes acquisition. And that plays into this equation. But my take, Zeus, is Cisco has a number of cloud knobs that it can turn, it sells core networking equipment to hyperscalers. It can be the abstraction layer to connect on-prem to the cloud and hybrid and across clouds. And it's in a good position with Telcos too, to go after the 5G. But let's use this chart to talk about Cisco's cloud prospects. It's an ETR cut of the cloud customer spending. So we cut it by cloud customers. And they're are, I don't know, 800 or so in the survey. And then looking at various companies performance within that cut. So these are companies that compete, or in the case of HashiCorp, partner with Cisco at some level. Let me just set this up and get your take. So the insert on the chart by the way shows the raw data that positions each dot, the net score and the shared n, i.e. the number of accounts in the survey that responded. The key points, first of all, Azure and AWS, dominant players in cloud. GCP is a distant third. We've reported on that a lot. Not only are these two companies big, they have spending momentum on their platforms. They're growing, they are on that flywheel. Second point, VMware and Cisco are very prominent. They have huge customer bases. And while they're often on a collision course, there's lots of room in cloud for multiple players. When we plotted some other Cisco properties like AppD and Meraki, which as we said, is strong. And then for context, we've placed Dell, HPE, Aruba, IBM and Oracle. And also VMware cloud and AWS, which is notable on its elevation. And as I say, we've added HashiCorp because they're critical partner of Cisco and it's a multi-cloud play. Okay, Zeus, there's the setup. What does Cisco have to do to make the cloud a tailwind? Let's talk about strategy, tailwinds, headwinds, competition, and bottom line it for us. >> Yeah, well, I do think, well, I talked about security being the biggest needle mover for Cisco, I think its biggest challenge is convincing Wall Street in particular, that the cloud is a tailwind. I think if you look at the companies with the really high multiples to their stock, Dave, they're all ones where they're viewed as, they go along with the cloud ride, Right? So the, if you can associate yourself with the cloud and then people believe that the cloud is going to, more cloud equals more business, that obviously creates a better multiple because the cloud has almost infinite potential ahead of it. Now with respect to Cisco, I do think cloud has presented somewhat of a double-edged sword for Cisco. I don't believe the current consumption model for cloud is really a tailwind for Cisco, not really a headwind, but it doesn't really change Cisco's business. But I do think the very definition of cloud is changing before our eyes, Dave. And it's shifting away from centralized clouds. If you think of the way customers bought cloud before, it might have used AWS, it might've used Azure, but it really, that's not really multi-cloud, it's just multiple clouds in which I put things in these centralized resources. It's shifting more to this concept of distributed cloud in which a single application can be built using resources from your private cloud, for AWS, from Azure, from Edge locations, all the cloud providers have built their portfolios to support this concept of distributed cloud and what becomes important there, is a highly agile dynamic network. And in that case with distributed cloud, that is a tailwind for Cisco because now the network is that resource that ties all those distributed cloud components together. Now the network itself has to change. It needs to become a lot more agile and microservices and container friendly itself so I can spin up resources and, you know, in an Edge location, as fast as I can on-prem and things like that. But I do think it creates another wave of innovation and networking, and in that case, I think it does act as a tailwind for Cisco, aside from just the work it's done with the web scalers, you know, those types of companies. So, but I do think that Cisco needs to rethink its delivery model on network services somewhat to take advantage of that. >> At the analyst meeting, Cisco made the point that it does sell to the hyperscalers. It talked about the top six hyperscalers. You know, you had mentioned to me, maybe IBM and Oracle were in there. I always talk about four hyperscalers and only four, but that's fine. Here's my question. Practitioners have told me, buyers have told me, the more money and more workloads I put in the cloud, the less I spend with Cisco. Now, even though that might be Cisco gear powering those clouds, do you see that as a potential threat in that they don't own that relationship anymore and value will confer to the cloud players? >> Yeah, that's, I've heard that too. And I don't, I believe that's true when it comes to general purpose compute. You're probably not buying as many UCS servers and things like that because you are putting them in the cloud. But I do think you do need a refresh the network. I think the network becomes a very important role, plays a very important role there. The variant, the really interesting trend will be, what is your WAM look like? Do you have thousands of workers scattered all over the place, or do you just have a few centralized locations? So I think also, you know, Cisco will wind up providing connectivity within the cloud. If you think of the transition we've seen in other industries, Dave, as far as cloud goes, you think of, you know, F5, a company like that. People thought that AWS would commoditize F5's business because AWS provides their own load balancers, right? But what AWS provides is a very basic, very basic functionality and then use F5's virtual edition or a cloud edition for a lot of the advanced capabilities. And I think you'll see the same thing with the cloud that customers will start buying versions of Cisco that go in the cloud to drive a lot of those advanced capabilities that only Cisco delivers. And so I think you wind up buying more Cisco over time, although the per unit price of what you buy might be a little bit lower. If that makes sense here. >> It does, I think it makes a lot of sense and that fits into the cloud model. You know, you bring up a good point, the conversation with the customer was Rakuten. And that individual was essentially sharing with us, somebody was asking, one of the analysts was asking, "Well, what about the cloud guys? "Aren't they going to really threaten the whole Telco "industry and disrupt it?" And his point was, "Look at, this stuff is not trivial." So to your point, you know, maybe they'll provide some basic functionality. Kind of like they do in a lot of different areas. Data protection is another good example. Security is another good example. Where there's plenty of room for partners, competitors, of on-prem players to add value. And I've always said, "Look, the opportunity "is the cloud players spend 100 billion dollars a year "on CapEx." It's a gift to companies like Cisco who can build an abstraction layer that connects on-prem, cloud for hybrid, across clouds, out to the edge, and really be that layer that is that layer that takes advantage of cloud native, but also delivers that experience, I don't want to use the word seamlessly, but that experience across those clouds as the cloud expands. And that's fundamentally Cisco's cloud strategy, isn't it? >> Oh yeah. And I think people have underestimated over the years, how hard it is to build good networking products. Anybody can go get some silicon and build a product to connect two things together. The question is, can you do it at scale? Can you do it securely? And lots of companies have tried to commoditize networking, you know, White Boxes was looked at as the existential threat to Cisco. Huawei was looked at as the big threat to Cisco. And all of those have kind of come and gone because building high quality network equipment that scales is tough. And it's tougher than most people realize. And your other point on the cloud providers as well, they will provide a basic level of functionality. You know, AWS network equipment doesn't work in Azure. And Azure stuff doesn't work in Google, and Google doesn't work in AWS. And so you do need a third party to come in and act as almost the cloud middleware that can connect all those things together with a consistent set of policies. And that's what Cisco does really well. They did that, you know back when they were founded with routing protocols and you can think this is just an extension of what they're doing just up at the cloud layer. >> Excellent. Okay, Zeus, we're going to leave it there. Thanks to my guest today, Zeus Kerravala. Great analysis as always. Would love to have you back. Check out ZKresearch.com to reach him. Thank you again. >> Thank you, Dave. >> Now, remember I publish each week on Wikibond.com and siliconangle.com. All these episodes are available as podcasts, just search "Braking Analysis" podcast, and you can connect on Twitter at DVallante or email me David.Vallante@siliconangle.com. Thanks for the comments on LinkedIn. Check out etr.plus for all the survey action. This is Dave Vallante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Be well and we'll see you next time. (light music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is braking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Techniques to protect sensitive data have evolved over thousands of years, literally. The pace of modern data protection is rapidly accelerating and presents both opportunities and threats for organizations. In particular, the amount of data stored in the cloud combined with hybrid work models, the clear and present threat of cyber crime, regulatory edicts, and the ever expanding edge and associated use cases should put CXOs on notice that the time is now to rethink your data protection strategies. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're going to explore the evolving world of data protection and share some information on how we see the market changing in the competitive landscape for some of the top players. Steve Kenniston, AKA the Storage Alchemist, shared a story with me, and it was pretty clever. Way back in 4000 BC, the Sumerians invented the first system of writing. Now, they used clay tokens to represent transactions at that time. Now, to prevent messing with these tokens, they sealed them in clay jars to ensure that the tokens, i.e the data, would remain secure with an accurate record that was, let's call it quasi, immutable, and lived in a clay vault. And since that time, we've seen quite an evolution of data protection. Tape, of course, was the main means of protecting data and backing data up during most of the mainframe era. And that carried into client server computing, which really accentuated and underscored the issues around backup windows and challenges with RTO, recovery time objective and RPO recovery point objective. And just overall recovery nightmares. Then in the 2000's data reduction made disk-based backup more popular and pushed tape into an archive last resort media. Data Domain, then EMC, now Dell still sell many purpose-built backup appliances as do others as a primary backup target disc-based. The rise of virtualization brought more changes in backup and recovery strategies, as a reduction in physical resources squeezed the one application that wasn't under utilizing compute, i.e, backup. And we saw the rise of Veem, the cleverly-named company that became synonymous with data protection for virtual machines. Now, the cloud has created new challenges related to data sovereignty, governance, latency, copy creep, expense, et cetera. But more recently, cyber threats have elevated data protection to become a critical adjacency to information security. Cyber resilience to specifically protect against attacks is the new trend being pushed by the vendor community as organizations are urgently looking for help with this insidious threat. Okay, so there are two major disruptors that we're going to talk about today, the cloud and cyber crime, especially around ransoming your data. Every customer is using the cloud in some way, shape, or form. Around 76% are using multiple clouds, that's according to a recent study by Hashi Corp. We've talked extensively about skill shortages on theCUBE, and data protection and security concerns are really key challenges to address, given that skill shortage is a real talent gap in terms of being able to throw people at solving this problem. So what customers are doing, they're either building out or they're buying really mostly building abstraction layers to hide the underlying cloud complexity. So what this does... The good news is it's simplifies provisioning and management, but it creates problems around opacity. In other words, you can't see sometimes what's going on with the data. These challenges fundamentally become data problems, in our view. Things like fast, accurate, and complete backup recovery, compliance, data sovereignty, data sharing. I mentioned copy creep, cyber resiliency, privacy protections. These are all challenges brought to fore by the cloud, the advantages, the pros, and the cons. Now, remote workers are especially vulnerable. And as clouds span rapidly, data protection technologies are struggling to keep pace. So let's talk briefly about the rapidly-expanding public cloud. This chart shows worldwide revenue for the big four hyperscalers. As you can see, we projected that they're going to surpass $115 billion in revenue in 2021. That's up from 86 billion last year. So it's a huge market, it's growing in the 35% range. The interesting thing is last year, 80-plus billion dollars in revenue, but 100 billion dollars was spent last year by these firms in cap ex. So they're building out infrastructure for the industry. This is a gift to the balance of the industry. Now to date, legacy vendors and the surrounding community have been pretty defensive around the cloud. Oh, not everything's going to move to the cloud. It's not a zero sum game we hear. And while that's all true, the narrative was really kind of a defensive posture, and that's starting to change as large tech companies like Dell, IBM, Cisco, HPE, and others see opportunities to build on top of this infrastructure. You certainly see that with Arvind Krishna comments at IBM, Cisco obviously leaning in from a networking and security perspective, HPE using language that is very much cloud-like with its GreenLake strategy. And of course, Dell is all over this. Let's listen to how Michael Dell is thinking about this opportunity when he was questioned on the queue by John Furrier about the cloud. Play the clip. So in my view, Michael nailed it. The cloud is everywhere. You have to make it easy. And you have to admire the scope of his comments. We know this guy, he thinks big. He said, "Enables everything." He's basically saying is that technology is at the point where it has the potential to touch virtually every industry, every person, every problem, everything. So let's talk about how this informs the changing world of data protection. Now, we all know, we've seen with the pandemic, there's an acceleration in toward digital, and that has caused an escalation, if you will, in the data protection mandate. So essentially what we're talking about here is the application of Michael Dell's cloud everywhere comments. You've got on-prem, private clouds, hybrid clouds. You've got public clouds across AWS, Azure, Google, Alibaba. Really those are the big four hyperscalers. You got many clouds that are popping up all their place. But multi-cloud, to that Hashi Corp data point, 75, 70 6%. And then you now see the cloud expanding out to the edge, programmable infrastructure heading out to the edge. So the opportunity here to build the data protection cloud is to have the same experiences across all these estates with automation and orchestration in that cloud, that data protection cloud, if you will. So think of it as an abstraction layer that hides that underlying complexity, you log into that data protection cloud, it's the same experience. So you've got backup, you've got recovery, you can handle bare metal. You can do virtualized backups and recoveries, any cloud, any OS, out to the edge, Kubernetes and container use cases, which is an emerging data protection requirement. And you've got analytics, perhaps you've got PII, personally identifiable information protection in there. So the attributes of this data protection cloud, again, abstracts the underlying cloud primitives, takes care of that. It also explodes cloud native technologies. In other words, it takes advantage of whether it's machine learning, which all the big cloud players have expertise in, new processor models, things like graviton, and other services that are in the cloud natively. It doesn't just wrap it's on-prem stack in a container and shove it into the cloud, no. It actually re architects or architects around those cloud native services. And it's got distributed metadata to track files and volumes and any organizational data irrespective of location. And it enables sets of services to intelligently govern in a federated governance manner while ensuring data integrity. And all this is automated and an orchestrated to help with the skills gap. Now, as it relates to cyber recovery, air-gap solutions must be part of the portfolio, but managed outside of that data protection cloud that we just briefly described. The orchestration and the management must also be gaped, if you will. Otherwise, (laughs) you don't have an air gap. So all of this is really a cohort to cyber security or your cybersecurity strategy and posture, but you have to be careful here because your data protection strategy could get lost in this mess. So you want to think about the data protection cloud as again, an adjacency or maybe an overlay to your cybersecurity approach. Not a bolt on, it's got to be fundamentally architectured from the bottom up. And yes, this is going to maybe create some overheads and some integration challenges, but this is the way in which we think you should think about it. So you'll likely need a partner to do this. Again, we come back to the skill skills gap if we're seeing the rise of MSPs, managed service providers and specialist service providers. Not public cloud providers. People are concerned about lock-in, and that's really not their role. They're not high-touch services company. Probably not your technology arms dealer, (clear throat) excuse me, they're selling technology to these MSPs. So the MSPs, they have intimate relationships with their customers. They understand their business and specialize in architecting solutions to handle these difficult challenges. So let's take a look at some of the risk factors here, dig a little bit into the cyber threat that organizations face. This is a slide that, again, the Storage Alchemists, Steve Kenniston, shared with me. It's based on a study that IBM funds with the Panmore Institute, which is a firm that studies these things like cost of breaches and has for many, many, many years. The slide shows the total cost of a typical breach within each dot and on the Y axis and the frequency in percentage terms on the horizontal axis. Now, it's interesting. The top two compromise credentials and phishing, which once again proves that bad user behavior trumps good security every time. But the point here is that the adversary's attack vectors are many. And specific companies often specialize in solving these problems often with point products, which is why the slide that we showed from Optiv earlier, that messy slide, looks so cluttered. So there's a huge challenge for companies. And that's why we've seen the emergence of cyber recovery solutions from virtually all the major players. Ransomware and the solar winds hack have made trust the number one issue for CIOs and CISOs and boards of directors. Shifting CISO spending patterns are clear. They're shifting largely because they're catalyzed by the work from home. But outside of the moat to endpoint security, identity and access management, cloud security, the horizontal network security. So security priorities and spending are changing. And that's why you see the emergence of disruptors like we've covered extensively, Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler. And cyber resilience is top of mind, and robust solutions are required. And that's why companies are building cyber recovery solutions that are most often focused on the backup corpus because that's a target for the bad guys. So there is an opportunity, however, to expand from just the backup corpus to all data and protect this kind of 3, 2, 1, or maybe it's 3, 2, 1, 1, three copies, two backups, a backup in the cloud and one that's air gaped. So this can be extended to primary storage, copies, snaps, containers, data in motion, et cetera, to have a comprehensive data protection strategy. And customers, as I said earlier, are increasingly looking to manage service providers and specialists because of that skills gap. And that's a big reason why automation is so important in orchestration. And automation and orchestration, I'll emphasize, on the air gap solutions should be separated physically and logically. All right, now let's take a look at some of the ETR data and some of the players. This is a chart that we like to show often. It's a X-Y axis. And the Y axis is net score, which is a measure of spending momentum. And the horizontal axis is market share. Now, market share is an indicator of pervasiveness in the survey. It's not spending market share, it's not market share of the overall market, it's a term that ETR uses. It's essentially market share of the responses within the survey set. Think of it as mind share. Okay, you've got the pure plays here on this slide, in the storage category. There is no data protection or backup category. So what we've done is we've isolated the pure plays or close to pure plays in backup and data protection. Now notice that red line, that red is kind of our subjective view of anything that's over that 40% line is elevated. And you can see only Rubrik, and the July survey is over that 40% line. I'll show you the ends in a moment. Smaller ends, but still, Rubrik is the only one. Now, look at Cohesity and Rubrik in the January 2020. So last year, pre-pandemic, Cohesity and Rubrik, they've come well off their peak for net score. Look at Veeam. Veeam, having studied this data for the last say 24 hours months, Veeam has been steady Eddy. It is really always in the mid to high 30s, always shows a large shared end, so it's coming up in the survey. Customers are mentioning Veeam. And it's got a very solid net score. It's not above that 40% line, but it's hovering just below consistently. That's very impressive. Commvault has steadily been moving up. Sanjay Mirchandani has made some acquisitions. He did the Hedvig acquisition. They launched Metallic, that's driving cloud affinity within Commvault's large customer base. So it's good example of a legacy player pivoting and evolving and transforming itself. Veritas, it continues to under perform in the ETR surveys relative to the other players. Now, for context, let's add IBM and Dell to the chart. Now just note, this is IBM and Dell's full storage portfolio. The category in the taxonomy at ETR is all storage. Just previous slide, I isolated on the pure plays. But this now adds in IBM and Dell. It probably representative of where they would be. Probably Dell larger on the horizontal axis than IBM, of course. And you could see the spending momentum accordingly. So you can see that in the data chart that we've inserted. So some smaller ends for Rubrik and Cohesity. But still enough to pay attention, it's not like one or two. When you're 20-plus, 15-plus 25-plus, you can start to pay attention to trends. Veeam, again, is very impressive. It's net score is solid, it's got a consistent presence in the dataset, it's clear leader here. SimpliVity is small, but it's improving relative to last several surveys. And we talked about Convolt. Now, I want to emphasize something that we've been hitting on for quite some time now. And that's the Renaissance that's coming in compute. Now, we all know about Moore's Law, the doubling of transistor density every two years, 18 to 24 months. And that leads to a doubling of performance in that timeframe. X86, that x86 curve is in the blue. And if you do the math, this is expressed in trillions of operations per second. The orange line is representative of Apples A series, culminating in the A15, most recently. The A series is what Apple is now... Well, it's the technology basis for what's inside M1, the new Apple laptops, which is replacing Intel. That's that that orange line there, we'll come back to that. So go back to the blue line for a minute. If you do the math on doubling performance every 24 months, it comes out to roughly 40% annual improvement in processing power per year. That's now moderated. So Moore's Law is waning in one sense, so we wrote a piece Moore's Law is not dead. So I'm sort of contradicting myself there. But the traditional Moore's Law curve on x86 is waning. It's probably now down to around 30%, low 30s. But look at the orange line. Again, using the A series as an indicator, if you combine then the CPU, the NPU, which neuro processing unit, XPU, pick whatever PU you want, the accelerators, the DSPs, that line is growing at 100% plus per year. It's probably more accurately around 110% a year. So there's a new industry curve occurring, and it's being led by the Arm ecosystem. The other key factor there, and you're seeing this in a lot of use cases, a lot of consumer use cases, Apple is an example, but you're also seeing it in things like Tesla, Amazon with AWS graviton, the Annapurna acquisition, building out graviton and nitro, that's based on Arm. You can get from design to tape out in less than two years. Whereas the Intel cycles, we know, they've been running it four to five years now. Maybe Pat Gelsinger is compressing those. But Intel is behind. So organizations that are on that orange curve are going to see faster acceleration, lower cost, lower power, et cetera. All right, so what's the tie to data protection. I'm going to leave you with this chart. Arm has introduced it's confidential, compute architecture and is ushering in a new era of security and data protection. Zero trust is the new mandate. And what Arm has it's done with what they call realms is create physical separation of the vulnerable components by creating essentially physical buckets to put code in and to put data in, separate from the OS. Remember, the OS is the most valuable entry point for hackers or one of them because it contains privileged access, and it's a weak link because of things like memory leakages and vulnerabilities. And malicious code can be placed by bad guys within data in the OS and appear benign, even though it's anything but. So in this, all the OS does is create API calls to the realm controller. That's the only interaction. So it makes it much harder for bad actors to get access to the code and the data. And importantly, very importantly, it's an end-to-end architecture. So there's protection throughout. If you're pulling data from the edge and bringing it back to the on-prem or the cloud, you've got that end to end architecture and protection throughout. So the link to data protection is that backup software vendors need to be the most trusted of applications. Backup software needs to be the most trusted of applications because it's one of the most targeted areas in a cyber attack. Realms provide an end-to-end separation of data and code from the OS and it's a better architectural construct to support zero trust and confidential computing and critical use cases like data protection/backup and other digital business apps. So our call to action is backup software vendors, you can lead the charge. Arm is several years ahead at the moment, ahead of Intel, in our view. So you've got to pay attention to that, research that. We're not saying over rotate, but go investigate that. And use your relationships with Intel to accelerate its version of this architecture. Or ideally, the industry should agree on common standards and solve this problem together. Pat Gelsinger told us in theCUBE that if it's the last thing he's going to do in his industry life, he's going to solve this security problem. That's when he was at VMware. Well, Pat, you're even in a better place to do it now. You don't have to solve it yourself, you can't, and you know that. So while you're going about your business saving Intel, look to partner with Arm. I know it sounds crazy to use these published APIs and push to collaborate on an open source architecture that addresses the cyber problem. If anyone can do it, you can. Okay, that's it for today. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts. All you got to do is search Braking Analysis Podcast. I publish weekly on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can reach me @dvellante on Twitter, email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. And don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey and data action. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, everybody. Be well, and we'll see you next time. (gentle music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Every CEO is figuring out the right balance for new hybrid business models. Now, regardless of the chosen approach, which is going to vary, technology executives, they understand they have to accelerate their digital and build resilience as well as optionality into their platforms. Now, this is driving a dramatic shift in IT investments. And at the macro level, we expect total spending to increase at as much as 8% or even more in 2021, compared to last year's contraction. Investments in cybersecurity, cloud collaboration that are enabling hybrid work as well as data, including analytics, AI, and automation are at the top of the spending priorities for CXOs. Hello everyone. And welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we're pleased to welcome back Erik Bradley, who is the chief engagement strategist at our partner, ETR. Now in this segment, we're going to share some of the latest findings from ETR's surveys and provide our commentary on what it means for the markets, for sellers, and for buyers. Erik, great to see you, my friend. Welcome back to Breaking Analysis. >> Thank you for having me, always enjoy it. We've got some fresh data to talk about on this beautiful summer Friday, so I'm ready to go. >> All right. I'm excited too. Okay, last year we saw a contraction in IT spending by at least 5%. And now we're seeing a snapback to, as I said, at least 8% growth relative to last year. You got to go back to 2007 just before the financial crisis to see this type of top line growth. The shift to hybrid work, it's exposed us to new insidious security threats. And we're going to discuss that in a lot more detail. Cloud migration of course picked up dramatically last year, and based on the recent earnings results of the big cloud players, for now we got two quarters of data, that trend continues as organizations are accelerating their digital platform build-outs, and this is bringing a lot of complexity and a greater need for so-called observability solutions, which Erik is going to talk about extensively later on in this segment. Data, we think is entering a new era of de-centralization. We see organizations not only focused on analytics and insights, but actually creating data products. Leading technology organizations like JP Morgan, they're heavily leaning into this trend toward packaging and monetizing data products. And finally, as part of the digital transformation trend, we see no slow down in spending momentum for AI and automation, generally in RPA specifically. Erik, anything you want to add to that top level narrative? >> Yeah, there's a lot to take on the macro takeaways. The first thing I want to state is that that 8, 8.5% number that started off at just 3 to 4% beginning of the year. So as the year has continued, we are just seeing this trend in budgets continue to accelerate, and we don't have any reason to believe that's going to stop. So I think we're going to just keep moving on heading into 2021. And we're going to see a banner year of spend this year and probably next as well. >> All right, now we're going to bring up a chart that shows kind of that progression here of spending momentum. So Erik, I'm going to let you comment on this chart that tracks those projections over time. >> Erik: Yeah. Great. So thank you very much for pulling this up. As you can see in the beginning part of the year, when we asked people, "What do you plan to spend throughout 2021?" They were saying it would be about a 4% increase. Which we were happy with because as you said last year, it was all negative. That continues to accelerate and is only hyper accelerating now as we head into the back half of the year. In addition, after we do this data, I always host a panel of IT end users to kind of get their feedback on what we collected, to a man, every one of them expects continued increase throughout next year. There are some concerns and uncertainty about what we're seeing right now with COVID, but even with that, they're planning their budgets now for 2022 and they're planning for even further increases going forward. >> Dave: Great, thank you. So we circled that 8%. That's really kind of where we thought it was going to land. And so we're happy with that number, but let's take a look at where the action is by technology sector. This chart that we're showing you here, it tracks spending priorities back to last September. When I believe that was the point, Erik, that cyber became the top priority in the survey, ahead of cloud collaboration, analytics, and data, and the other sectors that you see there. Now, Erik, we should explain. These areas, they're the top seven, and they outrank all the other sectors. ETR tracks many, many other sectors, but please weigh in here and share your thoughts on this data. >> Erik: Yeah. Security, security, security. It hasn't changed. It had really hasn't. The hybrid work. The fact that you're behind the firewall one day and then you're outside working from home the next, switching in and out of networks. This is just a field day for bad actors. And we have no choice right now, but to continue to spend, because as you're going to talk about in a minute, hybrid's here to stay. So we have to figure out a way to secure behind the firewall on-prem. We also have to secure our employees and our assets that are not in the office. So it is a main priority. One of the things that point out on this chart, I had a couple of ITN users talk to me about customer experience and automation really need to move from the right part of that chart to the left. So they're seeing more in what you were talking about in RPA and automation, starting to creep up heading into next year. As cloud migration matures, as you know, cybersecurity spending has been ramping up. People are going to see a little bit more on the analytics and a little bit more on the automation side going forward. >> Dave: Great. Now, this next data view- well, first of all, one of the great things about the ETR dataset is that you can ask key questions and get a time series. And I will tell you again, I go back to last March, ETR hit it. They were the first on the work from home trend. And so if you were on that trend, you were able to anticipate it. And a lot of investors I think took advantage of that. Now, but we've shown this before, but there's new data points that we want to introduce. So the data tracks how CIOs and IT buyers have responded to the pandemic since last March. Still 70% of the organizations have employees working remotely, but 39% now have employees fully returning to the office and Erik, the rest of the metrics all point toward positives for IT spending, although accelerating IT deployments there at the right peaked last year, as people realized they had to invest in the future. Your thoughts? >> Erik: Yeah, this is the slide for optimism, without a doubt. Of the entire macro survey we did, this is the most optimistic slide. It's great for overall business. It's great for business travel. This is well beyond just IT. Hiring is up. I've had some people tell me that they possibly can't hire enough people right now. They had to furlough employees, they had to stop projects, and they want to re accelerate those now. But talent is very hard to find. Another point to you about your automation and RPA, another underlying trend for there. The one thing I did want to talk about here is the hybrid workplace, but I believe there's another slide on it. So just to recap on this extremely optimistic, we're seeing a lot of hiring. We're seeing increased spending, and I do believe that that's going to continue. >> Yeah I'm glad you brought that up because a session that you and I did a while ago, we pointed out, it was earlier this year, that the skill shortage is one potential risk to our positive scenario. We'll keep an eye on that, but so I want to show another set of data that we've showed previously, but ETR again, has added some new questions in here. So note here that 60% of employees still work remotely with 33% in a hybrid model currently, and the CIO's expect that to land on about 42% hybrid workforce with around 30% working remotely, which is around, it's been consistent by the way on your surveys, but that's about double the historic norm, Eric. >> Erik: Yeah, and even further to your point Dave, recently I did a panel asking people to give me some feedback on this. And three of those four experts basically said to me, if we had greed run this survey right now, that even more people would be saying remote. That they believe that that number, that's saying they're expecting that number of people to be back in office, is actually too optimistic. They're actually saying that maybe if we had- cause as a survey launched about six, seven weeks ago before this little blip on the radar, before the little COVID hiccup we're seeing now, and they're telling me that they believe if we reran this now that it would be even more remote work, even more hybrid and less returned to the office. So that's just an update I wanted to offer on this slide. >> Dave: Yeah. Thank you for that. I mean, we're still in this kind of day to day, week to week, month to month mode, but I want to do a little double click on this. We're not going to share this data, but there was so much ETR data. We got to be selective. But if you double click on the hybrid models, you'll see that 50% of organizations plan to have time roughly equally split between onsite and remote with again around 30 or 31% mostly remote, with onsite space available if they need it. And Erik, very few don't plan to have some type of hybrid model, at least. >> Yeah, I think it was less than 10% that said it was going to be exclusively onsite. And again, that was a more optimistic scenario six, seven weeks ago than we're seeing right now throughout the country. So I agree with you, hybrid is here to stay. There really is no doubt about it. from everyone I speak to when, you know, I basically make a living talking to IT end users. Hybrid is here to stay. They're planning for it. And that's really the drive behind the spending because you have to support both. You have to give people the option. You have to, from an IT perspective, you also have to support both, right? So if somebody is in office, I need the support staff to be in office. Plus I need them to be able to remote in and fix something from home. So they're spending on both fronts right now. >> Okay. Let's get into some of the vendor performance data. And I want to start with the cloud hyperscalers. It's something that we followed pretty closely. I got some Wiki bond data, that we just had earnings released. So here's data that shows the Q2 revenue shares on the left-hand side in the pie and the growth rates for the big four cloud players on the right hand side. It goes back to Q1 2019. Now the first thing I want to say is these players generated just under $39 billion in the quarter with AWS capturing 50% of that number. I said 39, it was 29 billion, sorry, with AWS capturing 50% of that in the quarter. As you're still tracking around a third in Alibaba and GCP in the, you know, eight or 9% range. But what's most interesting to me, Erik, is that AWS, which generated almost 15 billion in the quarter, was the only player to grow its revenue, both sequentially and year over year. And Erik, I think the street is missing the real story here on Amazon. Amazon announced earnings on Thursday night. The company had a 2% miss on the top line revenues and a meaningful 22% beat on earnings per share. So the retail side of the business missed its revenue targets, so that's why everybody's freaked out. But AWS, the cloud side, saw a 4% revenue beat. So the stock was off more than 70% after hours and into Friday. Now to me, a mix shift toward AWS, that's great news for investors. Now, tepid guidance is a negative, but the shift to a more profitable cloud business is a huge positive. >> Yeah, there's a lot that goes into stock price, right? I remember I was a director of research back in the day. One of my analysts said to me, "Am I crazy for putting a $1,000 target on Amazon?" And I laughed and I said, "No, you're crazy if you don't make it $2,000." (both chuckling) So, you know, at that time it was basically the mix shift towards AWS. You're a thousand percent right. I think the tough year over year comps had something to do with that reaction. That, you know, it's just getting really hard. What's that? The law of large numbers, right? It's really hard to grow at that percentage rate when you're getting this big. But from our data perspective, we're seeing no slowdown in AWS, in cloud, none whatsoever. The only slowdown we're seeing in cloud is GCP. But to, you know, to focus on AWS, extremely strong across the board and not only just in cloud, but in all their data products as well, data and analytics. >> Yeah and I think that the AWS, don't forget folks, that funds Amazon's TAM expansion into so many different places. Okay. As we said at the top, the world of digital and hybrid work, and multi-cloud, it's more complicated than it used to be. And that means if you need to resolve issues, which everybody does, like poor application performance, et cetera, what's happening at the user level, you have to have a better way to sort of see what's going on. And that's what the emergence of the observability space is all about. So Erik, let me set this up and you have a lot of comments here because you've recently had some, and you always have had a lot of round table discussions with CXOs on this topic. So this chart plots net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis, and market share or pervasiveness in the dataset on the horizontal axis. And we inserted a table that shows the data points in detail. Now that red dotted line is just sort of Dave Vellante's subjective mark in the sand for elevated spending levels. And there are three other points here. One is Splunk as well off is two-year peak, as highlighted in the red, but Signal FX, which Splunk acquired, has made a big move northward this last quarter. As has Datadog. So Erik, what can you share with us on this hot, but increasingly crowded space? >> Yeah. I could talk about the space for a long time. As you know, I've gotten some flack over the last year and a half about, you know, kind of pointing out this trend, this negative trend in Splunk. So I do want to be the first one to say that this data set is rebounding. Splunk has been horrific in our data for going back almost two years now, straight downward trend. This is the first time we're seeing any increase, any positivity there. So I do want to be fair and state that because I've been accused of being a little too negative on Splunk in the past. But I would basically say for observability right now, it's a rising tide lifts all boats, if I can use a New England phrase. The data across the board in analytics for these observability players is up, is accelerating. None more so than Datadog. And it's exactly your point, David. The complexity, the increased cloud migration is a perfect setup for Datadog, which is a cloud native. It focuses on microservices. It focuses on cloud observability. Old Splunk was just application monitoring. Don't get me wrong, they're changing, but they were on-prem application monitoring, first and foremost. Datadog came out as cloud native. They, you know, do microservices. This is just a perfect setup for them. And not only is Datadog leading the observability, it's leading the entire analytics sector, all of it. Not just the observability niche. So without a doubt, that is the strongest that we're seeing. It's leading Dynatrace new Relic. The only one that really isn't rebounding is Cisco App Dynamics. That's getting the dreaded legacy word really attached to it. But this space is really on fire, elastic as well, really doing well in this space. New Relic has shown a little bit of improvement as well. And what I heard when I asked my panelists about this, is that because of the maturity of cloud migration, that this observability has to grow. Spending on this has to happen. So they all say the chart looks right. And it's really just about the digital transformation maturity. So that's largely what they think is happening here. And they don't really see it getting, you know, changing anytime soon. >> Yeah, and I would add, and you see that it's getting crowded. You saw a service now acquired LightStep, and they want to get into the game. You mentioned, you know, last deck of the elk stack is, you know, the open source alternative, but then we see a company who's raised a fair amount of money, startup, chaos search, coming in, going after kind of the complexity of the elk stack. You've got honeycomb, which has got a really innovative approach, Jeremy Burton's company observes. So you have venture capital coming in. So we'll see if those guys could be disruptive enough or are they, you know, candidates to get acquired? We'll see how that all- you know that well. The M and A space. You think this space is ripe for M and A? >> I think it's ripe for consolidation, M and A. Something has to shake out. There's no doubt. I do believe that all of these can be standalone. So we shall see what's happened to, you mentioned the Splunk acquisition of Signal FX, just a house cleaning point. That was really nice acceleration by Signal FX, but it was only 20 citations. We'd looked into this a little bit deeper. Our data scientists did. It appears as if the majority of people are just signaling spunk and not FX separately. So moving forward for our data set, we're going to combine those two, so we don't have those anomalies going forward. But that type of acquisition does show what we should expect to see more of in this group going forward. >> Well that's I want to mention. That's one of the challenges that any data company has, and you guys do a great job of it. You're constantly having to reevaluate. There's so much M and A going on in the industry. You've got to pick the right spots in terms of when to consolidate. There's some big, you know, Dell and EMC, for example. You know, you've beautifully worked through that transition. You're seeing, you know, open shift and red hat with IBM. You just got to be flexible. And that's where it's valuable to be able to have a pipeline to guys like Erik, to sort of squint through that. So thank you for that clarification. >> Thank you too, because having a resource like you with industry knowledge really helps us navigate some of those as well for everyone out there. So that's a lot to do with you do Dave, >> Thank you. It's going to be interesting to watch Splunk. Doug Merritt's made some, you know, management changes, not the least of which is bringing in Teresa Carlson to run go to market. So if you know, I'd be interested if they are hitting, bouncing off the bottom and rising up again. They have a great customer base. Okay. Let's look at some of the same dimensions. Go ahead. You got a comment? >> A few of ETR's clients looked at our data and then put a billion dollar investment into it too. So obviously I agree. (Dave laughing) Splunk is looking like it's set for a rebound, and it's definitely something to watch, I agree. >> Not to rat hole in this, but I got to say. When I look back, cause theCUBE gives us kind of early visibility. So companies with momentum and you talk to the customers that all these shows that we go to. I will tell you that three companies stood out last decade. It was Splunk. It was Service Now and Tableau. And you could tell just from just discussions with their customers, the enthusiasm in that customer base. And so that's a real asset, and that helps them build them a moat. So we'll see. All right, let's take a look at the same dimensions now for cyber. This is cybersecurity net score in the vertical, and market share in the horizontal. And I filtered by in greater than a hundred shared in because just gets so crowded. Erik, the only things I would point out here is CrowdStrike and Zscaler continue to shine, CyberArk also showing momentum over that 40% line. Very impressively, Palo Alto networks, which has a big presence in the market. They've bounced back. We predicted that a while back. Your round table suggested people like working with Palo Alto. They're a gold standard. You know, we had reported earlier on that divergence with four to net in terms of valuation and some of the challenges they had in cloud, clearly, you know, back with the momentum. And of course, Microsoft in the upper, right. It's just, they're literally off the charts and obviously a major player here, but your thoughts on cyber? >> Erik: Yeah. Going back to the backdrop. Security, security, security. It has been the number one priority going back to last September. No one sees it changing. It has to happen. The threat vectors are actually expanding and we have no choice but to spend here. So it is not surprising to see. You did name our three favorite names. So as you know, we look at the dataset, we see which ones have the most positive inflections, and we put outlooks on those. And you did mention Zscaler, Okta and CrowdStrike, by far the three standouts that we're seeing. I just recently did a huge panel on Okta talking about their acquisition of Auth Zero. They're pushed into Sale Point space, trying to move just from single sign on and MFA to going to really privileged account management. There is some hurdles there. Really Okta's ability to do this on-prem is something that a little bit of the IT end users are concerned about. But what we're seeing right now, both Okta and Auth Zero are two of the main adopted names in security. They look incredibly well set up. Zscaler as well. With the ZTNA push more towards zero trust, Zscaler came out so hot in their IPO. And everyone was wondering if it was going to trail off just like Snowflake. It's not trailing off. This thing just keeps going up into the right, up into the right. The data supports a lot of tremendous growth for the three names that you just mentioned. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm glad you brought up Auth Zero. We had reported on that earlier. I just feel like that was a great acquisition. You had Okta doing the belly to belly enterprise, you know, selling. And the one thing that they really lacked was that developer momentum. And that's what Auth Zero brings. Just a smart move by Todd McKinnon and company. And I mean, so this, you know, I want to, I want to pull up another chart show a quick snapshot of some of the players in the survey who show momentum and have you comment on this. We haven't mentioned Snowflake so far, but they remain again with like this gold standard of net score, they've consistently had those high marks with regard to spending velocity. But here's some other data. Erik, how should we interpret this? >> Erik: Yeah, just to harp on Snowflake for a second. Right, I mean the rich get richer. They came out- IPO was so hyped, so it was hard for us as a research company to say, "Oh, you know, well, you know, we agree." But we did. The data is incredible. You can't beat the management team. You can't beat what they're doing. They've got so much cash. I can't wait to see what they do with it. And meanwhile, you would expect something that debuted with that high of a net score, that high of spending velocity to trail off. It would be natural. It's not Dave, it's still accelerating. It's gone even higher. It's at all time highs. And we just don't see it stopping anytime soon. It's a really interesting space right now. Maybe another name to look at on here that I think is pretty interesting, kind of a play on return to business is Kupa. It's a great project expense management tool that got hit really hard. Listen, traveling stopped, business expense stopped, and I did a panel on it. And a lot of our guys basically said, "Yeah, it was the first thing I cut." But we're seeing a huge rebound in spending there in that space. So that's a name that I think might be worth being called out on a positive side. Negative, If you look down to the bottom right of that chart, unfortunately we're seeing some issues in RingCentral and Zoom. Anything that's sort of playing in this next, you know, video conferencing, IP telephony space, they seem to be having really decelerating spending. Also now with Zoom's acquisition of five nine. I'm not really sure how RingCentral's going to compete on that. But yeah, that's one where we debuted for the first time with a negative outlook on that name. And looking and asking to some of the people in our community, a lot of them say externally, you still need IP telepany, but internally you don't. Because the You Cast communication systems are getting so sophisticated, that if I have Teams, if I have Slack, I don't need phones anymore. (chuckling) That you and I can just do a Slack call. We can do a Teams call. And many of them are saying I'm truly ripping out my IP Telepany internally as soon as possible because we just don't need it. So this whole collaboration, productivity space is here to stay. And it's got wide ranging implications to some of these more legacy type of tools. >> You know, one of the other things I'd call out on this chart is Accenture. You and I had a session earlier this year, and we had predicted that that skill shortage was going to lead to an uptick in traditional services. We've certainly seen that. I mean, IBM beat its quarter on the strength of services largely. And seeing Accenture on that is I think confirmation. >> Yeah that was our New Year prediction show, right Dave? When we made top 10 predictions? >> That's right. That was part of our predictions show. Exactly, good memory. >> The data is really showing that continue. People want the projects, they need to do the projects, but hiring is very difficult. So obviously the number one beneficiary there are going to be the Accentures of the world. >> All right. So let's do a quick wrap. I'm going to make a few comments and then have you bring us home, Erik. So we laid out our scenario for the tech spending rebound. We definitely believe last year tracked downward, along with GDP contraction. It was interesting. Gardner doesn't believe, at least factions of Gardner don't believe there's a correlation between GDP and tech spending. But, you know, I personally think there generally is some kind of relatively proportional pattern there. And I think we saw contraction last year. People are concerned about inflation. Of course, that adds some uncertainty. And as well, as you mentioned around the Delta variant. But I feel as though that the boards of directors and CEOs, they've mandated that tech execs have to build out digital platforms for the future. They're data centric. They're highly automated, to your earlier points. They're intelligent with AI infused, and that's going to take investment. I feel like the tech community has said, "Look, we know what to do here. We're dealing with hybrid work. We can't just stop doing what we're doing. Let's move forward." You know, and as you say, we're flying again and so forth. You know, getting hybrid right is a major priority that directly impacts strategies. Technology strategies, particularly around security, cloud, the productivity of remote workers with collaboration. And as we've said many times, we are entering a new era of data that's going to focus on decentralized data, building data products, and Erik let's keep an eye on this observability space. Lot of interest there, and buyers have a number of choices. You know, do they go with a specialist, as we saw recently, we've seen in the past, or did they go with the generalist like Service Now with the acquisition of LightStep? You know, it's going to be interesting. A lot of people are going to get into this space, start bundling into larger platforms. And so as you said, there's probably not enough room for all the players. We're going to see some consolidation there. But anyway, let me give you the final word here. >> Yeah, no, I completely agree with all of it. And I think your earlier points are spot on, that analytics and automation are certainly going to be moving more and more to that left of that chart we had of priorities. I think as we continue that survey heading into 2022, we'll have some fresh data for you again in a few months, that's going to start looking at 2022 priorities and overall spend. And the one other area that I keep hearing about over and over and over again is customer experience. There's a transition from good old CRM to CXM. Right now, everything is digital. It is not going away. So you need an omni-channel support to not only track your customer experience, but improve it. Make sure there's a two way communication. And it's a really interesting space. Salesforce is going to migrate into it. We've got Qualtrics out there. You've got Medallia. You've got FreshWorks, you've got Sprinkler. You got some names out there. And everyone I keep talking to on the IT end user side keeps bringing up customer experience. So let's keep an eye on that as well. >> That's a great point. And again, it brings me back to Service Now. We wrote a piece last week that's sort of, Service Now and Salesforce are on a collision course. We've said that for many, many years. And you've got this platform of platforms. They're just kind of sucking in different functions saying, "Hey, we're friends with everybody." But as you know Erik, software companies, they want to own it all. (both chuckling) All right. Hey Erik, thank you so much. I want to thank you for coming back on. It's always a pleasure to have you on Breaking Analysis. Great to see you. >> Love the partnership. Love the collaboration. Let's go enjoy this summer Friday. >> All right. Let's do. Okay, remember everybody, these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis Podcast, click subscribe to the series. Check out ETR's website at etr.plus. They've just launched a new website. They've got a whole new pricing model. It's great to see that innovation going on. Now remember we also publish a full report every week on WikiBond.com and SiliconAngle.com. You can always email me, appreciate the back channel comments, the metadata insights. David.Vellante@SiliconAngle.com. DM me on Twitter @DVellante or comment on the LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley and theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, a good rest of summer, be well. And we'll see you next time. (inspiring music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Mobile World Congress is alive, theCUBE will be there and we'll certainly let you know if it's alive and well when we get on the ground. Now, as we approach a delayed mobile world congress, it's really appropriate to reflect in the state of the telecoms industry. Let's face it. Telcos have done of really good job of keeping us all connected during the pandemic, supporting work from home and that whole pivot, accommodating the rapid shift to landline traffic, securing the network and keeping it up and running but it doesn't change the underlying fundamental dilemma that Telco has faced. Telco is a slow growth, no growth industry, with revenue expectations in the low single digits. And at the same time network traffic continues to grow at 20% annually. And last year it grew at 40% to 50%. Despite these challenges, Telcos are still investing in the future. For example, the Telco industry collectively is selling out more than a trillion dollars in the first half of this decade on 5G and fiber infrastructure. And it's estimated that there are now more than 200 5G networks worldwide. But a lot of questions remain, not the least of which is, can and should Telcos go beyond connectivity and fiber. Can the Telcos actually monetize 5G or whatever's next beyond 5G? Or is that going to be left to the ecosystem? Now what about the ecosystem? How is that evolving? And very importantly, what role will the Cloud Hyperscalers play in Telco? Are they infrastructure on which the Telcos can build or are they going to suck the value out of the market as they have done in the enterprise? Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, it's my pleasure to welcome a long time telecoms industry analyst and colleague, and the founding director of Lewis Insight, Mr. Chris Lewis. Chris, welcome to the program. Thanks for coming on >> Dave, it's a pleasure to be here. Thank you for having me. >> It is really our pleasure. So, we're going to cover a lot of ground today. And first thing, we're going to talk about Mobile World Congress. I've never been, you're an expert at that and what we can expect. And then we're going to review the current state of telecoms infrastructure, where it should go. We're going to dig into transformation. Is it a mandate? Is it aspirational? Can Telcos enter adjacent markets in ways they haven't been able to in the past? And then how about the ecosystem? We're going to talk about that, and then obviously we're going to talk about Cloud as I said, and we'll riff a little bit on the tech landscape. So Chris, let's get into it, Mobile World Congress, it's back on, what's Mobile World Congress typically like? What's your expectation this year for the vibe compared to previous events? >> Well Dave, the issue of Mobile World Congress is always that we go down there for a week into Barcelona. We stress ourselves building a matrix of meetings in 30 minutes slots and we return at the end of it trying to remember what we'd been told all the way through. The great thing is that with the last time we had a live, with around 110,000 people there, you could see anyone and everyone you needed to within the mobile, and increasingly the adjacent industry and ecosystem. So, he gave you that once a year, big download of everything new, obviously because it's the Mobile World Congress, a lot of it around devices, but increasingly over the last few years, we saw many, many stands with cars on them because the connected car became an issue, a lot more software oriented players there, but always the Telcos, always the people providing the network infrastructure. Increasingly in the last few years people provided the software and IT infrastructure, but all of these people contributing to what the network should be in the future, what needs to be connected. But of course the reach of the network has been growing. You mentioned during lockdown about connecting people in their homes, well, of course we've also been extending that connection to connect things whether it's in the home or the different devices, monitoring of doorbells and lights and all that sort of stuff. And in the industry environment, connecting all of the robots and sensors. So, actually the perimeter, the remit of the industry to connect has been expanding, and so is the sort of remit of Mobile World Congress. So, we set an awful lot of different suppliers coming in, trying to attach to this enormous market of roughly $1.5 trillion globally. >> Chris, what's the buzz in the industry in terms of who's going to show up. I know a lot of people have pulled out, I've got the Mobile World Congress app and I can see who's attending. And it looks like quite a few people are going to go but what's your expectation? >> Well, from an analyst point of view, obviously I'm mainly keeping up with my clients and trying to get new clients. I'm looking at it and going most of my clients are not attending in person. Now, of course, we need the DSMA, we need Mobile World Congress for future for the industry interaction. But of course, like many people having adopted and adapted to be online, then they're putting a lot of the keynotes online, a lot of the activities will be online. But of course many of the vendors have also produced their independent content and content to actually deliver to us as analysts. So, I'm not sure who will be there. I like you, but you'll be on the ground. You'll be able to report back and let us know exactly who turned up. But from my point of view, I've had so many pre-briefs already, the difference between this year and previous years, I used to get loads of pre-briefs and then have to go do the briefs as well. So this year I've got the pre-brief so I can sit back, put my feet up and wait for your report to come back as to what's happening on the ground. >> You got it. Okay, let's get into a little bit and talk about Telco infrastructure and the state, where it is today, where it's going, Chris, how would you describe the current state of Telco infrastructure? Where does it need to go? Like, what is the ideal future state look like for Telcos in your view? >> So there's always a bit of an identity crisis when it comes to Telco. I think going forward, the connectivity piece was seen as being table stakes, and then people thought where can we go beyond connectivity? And we'll come back to that later. But actually to the connectivity under the scenario I just described of people, buildings, things, and society, we've got to do a lot more work to make that connectivity extend, to be more reliable, to be more secure. So, the state of the network is that we have been building out infrastructure, which includes fiber to connect households and businesses. It includes that next move to cellular from 4G to 5G. It obviously includes Wi-Fi, wherever we've got that as well. And actually it's been a pretty good state, as you said in your opening comments they've done a pretty good job keeping us all connected during the pandemic, whether we're a fixed centric market like the UK with a lot of mobile on top and like the US, or in many markets in Africa and Asia, where we're very mobile centric. So, the fact is that every country market is different, so we should never make too many assumptions at a very top level, but building out that network, building out the services, focusing on that connectivity and making sure we get that cost of delivery right, because competition is pushing us towards having and not ever increasing prices, because we don't want to pay a lot extra every time. But the big issue for me is how do we bring together the IT and the network parts of this story to make sure that we build that efficiency in, and that brings in many questions that we going to touch upon now around Cloud and Hyperscalers around who plays in the ecosystem. >> Well, as you know, Telco is not my wheelhouse, but hanging around with you, I've learned, you've talked a lot about the infrastructure being fit for purpose. It's easy from an IT perspective. Oh yeah, it's fossilized, it's hardened, and it's not really flexible, but the flip side of that coin is as you're pointing out, it's super reliable. So, the big talk today is, "Okay, we're going to open up the network, open systems, and Open RAN, and open everything and microservices and containers. And so, the question is this, can you mimic that historical reliability in that open platform? >> Well, for me, this is the big trade-off and in my great Telco debate every year, I always try and put people against each other to try and to literally debate the future. And one of the things we looked at was is a more open network against this desire of the Telcos to actually have a smaller supplier roster. And of course, as a major corporation, these are on a national basis, very large companies, not large compared to the Hyperscalers for example, but they're large organizations, and they're trying to slim down their organization, slim down the supplier ecosystem. So actually in some ways, the more open it becomes, the more someone's got to manage and integrate all those pieces together. And that isn't something we want to do necessarily. So, I see a real tension there between giving more and more to the traditional suppliers. The Nokia's, Ericsson's, Huawei's, Amdocs and so on, the Ciscos. And then the people coming in breaking new ground like Mavenir and come in, and the sort of approach that Rakuten and Curve taken in bringing in more open and more malleable pieces of smaller software. So yeah, it's a real challenge. And I think as an industry which is notorious for being slow moving, actually we've begun to move relatively quickly, but not necessarily all the way through the organization. We've got plenty of stuff sitting on major or mainframes still in the back of the organization. But of course, as mobile has come in, we've started to deal much more closely, uninteractively in real time, God forbid, with the customers. So actually, at that front end, we've had to do things a lot more quickly. And that's where we're seeing the quickest adaptation to what you might see in your IT environment as being much more, continuous development, continuous improvement, and that sort of on demand delivery. >> Yeah, and we're going to get to that sort of in the Cloud space, but I want to now touch on Telco transformation which is sort of the main theme of this episode. And there's a lot of discussion on this topic, can Telcos move beyond connectivity and managing fiber? Is this a mandate? Is it a pipe dream that's just aspirational? Can they attack adjacencies to grow beyond the 1% a year? I mean, they haven't been successful historically. What are those adjacencies that might be, an opportunity and how will that ecosystem develop? >> Sure. >> So Chris, can and should Telcos try to move beyond core connectivity? Let's start there. >> I like what you did there by saying pipe dreams. Normally, pipe is a is a negative comment in the telecom world. But pipe dream gives it a real positive feel. So can they move beyond connectivity? Well, first of all, connectivity is growing in terms of the number of things being connected. So, in that sense, the market is growing. What we pay for that connectivity is not necessarily growing. So, therefore the mandate is absolutely to transform the inner workings and reduce the cost of delivery. So, that's the internal perspective. The external perspective is that we've tried in many Telcos around the world to break into those adjacent markets, being around media, being enterprise, being around IOT, and actually for the most part they've failed. And we've seen some very significant recent announcements from AT&T, Verizon, BT, beginning to move away from, owning content and not delivering content, but owning content. And the same as they've struggled often in the enterprise market to really get into that, because it's a well-established channel of delivery bringing all those ecosystem players in. So, actually rather than the old Telco view of we going to move into adjacent markets and control those markets, actually moving into them and enabling fellow ecosystem players to deliver the service is what I think we're beginning to see a lot more of now. And that's the big change, it's actually learning to play with the other people in the ecosystem. I always use a phrase that there's no room for egos in the ecosystem. And I think Telcos went in initially with an ego thinking we're really important, we are on connectivity. But actually now they're beginning to approach the ecosystem things saying, "How can we support partners? How can we support everyone in this ecosystem to deliver the services to consumers, businesses and whomever in this evolving ecosystem?" So, there are opportunities out there, plenty of them, but of course, like any opportunity, you've got to approach it in the right way. You've got to get the right investment in place. You've got to approach it with the right open API so everyone can integrate with your approach, and approach it, do I say with a little bit of humility to say, "Hey, we can bring this to the table, how do we work together? >> Well, it's an enormous market. I think you've shared with me, it's like 1.4 trillion. And I want to stay on these adjacencies for a minute, because one of the obvious things that Telcos will talk about is managed services. And I know we have to be careful of that term in an IT context, that it's different in a, you're talking about managing connectivity, but there's professional services. That's a logical sort of extension of their business and probably a safe adjacency, maybe not even adjacency, but they're not going to get into devices. I mean, they'll resell devices, but they're not going to be, I would presume not go back to trying to make devices, but there's certainly the edge and that's so, it'll define in opaque, but it's huge. If there's 5G, there's the IT component and that's probably a partnership opportunity. And as you pointed out, there's the ecosystem, but I wonder, how do you think about 5G as an adjacency or indoor opportunity? Is it a revenue opportunity for Telcos or is that just something that is really aspirational? >> Oh, absolutely it's a revenue opportunity, but I prefer to think of 5G as being a sort of a metaphor for the whole future of telecom. So, we usually talk, and MWC would normally talk about 5G just as a mobile solution. Of course, what you can get with, you can use this fixed wireless access approach, where the roots that sits in your house or your building. So, it's a potential replacement for some fixed lines. And of course, it's also, gives you the ability to build out, let's say in a manufacturing or a campus environment, a private 5G network. So, many of the early opportunities we're seeing with 5G are actually in that more private network environment addressing those very low latency, and high bandwidth requirements. So yeah, there are plenty of opportunities. Of course, the question here is, is connectivity enough, or especially with your comment around the edge, at the edge we need to manage connectivity, storage, compute, analytics, and of course the applications. So, that's a blend of players. It's not going to be in the hands of one player. So yes, plenty of opportunities but understanding what comes the other way from the customer base, where that's, you and I in our homes or outward as an about, or from a business point of view, an office or a campus environment, that's what should be driving, and not the technology itself. And I think this is the trap that the industry has fallen into many times, is we've got a great new wave of technology coming, how can we possibly deliver it to everybody rather than listening to what the customers really require and delivering it in a way consumable by all those different markets. >> Yeah now, of course all of these topics blend together. We try to keep them separately, but we're going to talk about Cloud, we're going to talk about competition, But one of the areas that we don't have a specific agenda item on is, is data and AI. And of course there's all this data flowing through the network, so presumably it's an opportunity for the Telcos. At the same time, they're not considered AI experts. They do when you talk about Edge, they would appear to have the latency advantage because of the last mile and their proximity, to various end points. But the Cloud is sort of building out as well. How do you think about data and AI as an opportunity for Telco? >> I think the whole data and AI piece for me sits on top of the cake or pie, whatever you want to call it. What we're doing with all this connectivity, what we're doing with all these moving parts and gathering information around it, and building automation into the delivery of the service, and using the analytics, whether you call it ML or AI, it doesn't really matter. But actually using that information to deliver a better service, a better outcome. Now, of course, Telcos have had much of this data for years and years, for decades, but they've never used it. So, I think what's happening is, the Cloud players are beginning to educate many of the Telcos around how valuable this stuff is. And that then brings in that question of how do we partner with people using open APIs to leverage that data. Now, do the Telcos keep hold of all that data? Do they let the Cloud players do all of it? No, it's going to be a combination depending on particular environments, and of course the people owning their devices also have a vested interest in this as well. So, you've always got to look at it end to end and where the data flows are, and where we can analyze it. But I agree that analysis on the device at the Edge, and perhaps less and less going back to the core, which is of course the original sort of mandate of the Cloud. >> Well, we certainly think that most of the Edge is going to be about AI inferencing, and then most of the data is going to stay at the edge. Some will come back for sure. And that is big opportunity for whether you're selling compute or conductivity, or maybe storage as well, but certainly insights at the Edge. >> Everything. >> Yeah. >> Everything, yeah. >> Let's get into the Cloud discussion and talk about the Hyperscalers, the big Hyperscaler elephant in the room. We're going to try to dig into what role the Cloud will play in the transformation of telecoms on Telecom TV at the great Telco debate. You likened the Hyperscalers, Chris, to Dementors from Harry Potter hovering over the industry. So, the question is, are the Cloud players going to suck the value out of the Telcos? Or are they more like Dobby the elf? They're powerful, there's sometimes friendly but they're unpredictable. >> Thank you for extending that analogy. Yes, it got a lot of reaction when I use that, but I think it indicates some of the direction of power shift where, we've got to remember here that Telcos are fundamentally national, and they're restricted by regulation, and the Cloud players are global, perhaps not as global as they'd like be, but some regional restrictions, but the global players, the Hyperscalers, they will use that power and they they will extend their reach, and they are extending their reach. If you think they now command some fantastic global networks, in some ways they've replaced some of the Telco international networks, all the submarine investments that tend to be done primarily for the Hyperscalers. So, they're building that out. So, as soon as you get onto their network, then you suddenly become part of that environment. And that is reducing some of the spend on the longer distances we might have got in the past approaches from the Telcos. Now, does that mean they're going to go all the way down and take over the Telcos? I don't believe so, because it's a fundamentally different business digging fiber in people's streets and delivering to the buildings, and putting antennas up. So, they will be a coexistence. And in fact, what we've already seen with Cloud and the Hyperscalers is that they're working much more close together than people might imagine. Now, you mentioned about data in the previous question, Google probably the best known of the of the AI and ML delivers from the Cloud side, working with many of the Telcos, even in some cases to actually have all the data outsourced into the Google Cloud for analytics purposes. They've got the power, the heavy lifting to do that. And so, we begin to see that, and obviously with shifting of workloads as appropriate within the Telco networking environment, we're seeing that with AWS, and of course with Azure as well. And Azure of course acquired a couple of companies in affirmed and Metro switch, which actually do some of the formal 5G core and the likes there within the connectivity environment. So, it's not clean cuts. And to go back to the analogy, those Dementors are swooping around and looking for opportunities, and we know that they will pick up opportunities, and they will extend their reach as far as they can down to that edge. But of course, the edge is where, as you rightly say, the Telcos have the control, they don't necessarily own the customer. I don't believe anyone owns the customer in this digital environment, because digital allows you to move your allegiance and your custom elsewhere anyway. So, but they do own that access piece, and that's what's important from a national point of view, from an economic point of view. And that's why we've seen some of the geopolitical activity banning Huawei from certain markets, encouraging more innovation through open ecosystem plays. And so, there is a tension there between the local Telco, the local market and the Hyperscaler market, but fundamentally they've got an absolute brilliant way of working together using the best of both worlds to deliver the services that we need as an economy. >> Well, and we've talked about this you and I in the past where the Telcos, portions of the Telco network could move into the Cloud. And there of course the Telcos all run the big data centers, and portions of that IT infrastructure could move into the Cloud. But it's very clear, they're not going to give up the entire family jewels to the Cloud players. Why would they? But there are portions of their IT that they could move into. Particularly, in the front end, they want to build like everybody. They want to build an abstraction layer. They're not going to move their core systems and their backend Oracle databases, they're going to put a brick wall around those, but they wanted abstraction layer, and they want to take advantage of microservices and use that data from those transaction systems. But the web front end stuff makes sense to put into Cloud. So, how do you think about that? >> I think you've hit the nail on the head. So you can't move those big backend systems straight away, gradually over time, you will, but you've got to go for those easy wins. And certainly in the research I've been doing with many of my clients, they're suggested that front end piece, making sure that you can onboard customers more easily, you can get the right mix of services. You can provide the omnichannel interaction from that customer experience that everybody talks about, for which the industry is not very well known at all by the way. So, any improvement on that is going to be good from an MPS point of view. So yeah, leveraging what we might, what we call BSS OSS in the telecom world, and actually putting that into the Cloud, leveraging both the Hyperscalers, but also by the way, many of the traditional players who people think haven't moved Cloud wards, but they are moving Cloud wards and they're embracing microservices and Cloud native. So, what you would have seen if we'd been in person down in Barcelona next week, would be a lot of the vendors who perhaps traditionally seems a bit slow moving, actually have done a lot of work to move their portfolio into the Cloud and into Cloud native environments. And yes, as you say, we can use that front end, we can use the API openness that's developed by people at the TM forum, to actually make sure we don't have to do the backend straight away, do it over time. Because of course the thing that we're not touching upon here, is the revenue stream is a consistent revenue stream. So, just because you don't need to change the backend to keep your revenue stream going, this is on a new, it keeps delivering every month, we keep paying our 50, 40, whatever bucks a month into the Telco pot. That's why it's such a big market, and people aren't going to stop doing that. So, I think the dynamics of the industry, we often spend a lot of time thinking about the inner workings of it and the potential of adjacent markets, whereas actually, we keep paying for this stuff, we keep pushing revenue into the pockets of all the Telcos. So, it's not a bad industry to be in, even if they were just pushed back to be in the access market, it's a great business. We need it more and more. The elasticity of demand is very inelastic, we need it. >> Yeah, it's the mother of old golden geese. We don't have a separate topic on security, and I want to touch on security here, is such an important topic. And it's top of mind obviously for everybody, Telcos, Hyperscalers, the Hyperscalers have this shared responsibility model, you know it well. A lot of times it's really confusing for customers. They don't realize it until there has been a problem. The Telcos are going to be very much tuned into this. How will all this openness, and we're going to talk about technology in a moment, but how will this transformation in your view, in the Cloud, with the shared responsibility model, how will that affect the whole security posture? >> Security is a great subject, and I do not specialize in it. I don't claim to be an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I would say security for me is a bit like AI and analytics. It's everywhere. It's part of everything. And therefore you cannot think of it as a separate add on issue. So, every aspect, every element, every service you build into your micro services environment has to think about how do you secure that connection, that transaction, how do you secure the customer's data? Obviously, sovereignty plays a role in that as well in terms of where it sits, but at every level of every connection, every hop that we look through, every route to jump, we've got to see that security is built in. And in some ways, it's seen as being a separate part of the industry, but actually, as we collapse parts of the network down, we're talking about bringing optical and rooting together in many environments, security should be talked about in the same breath. So when I talked about Edge, when I talked about connectivity, storage, compute, analytics, I should've said security as well, because I absolutely believe that is fundamental to every chain in the link and let's face it, we've got a lot of links in the chain. >> Yeah, 100%. Okay, let's hit on technologies and competition, we kind of blend those together. What technology should we be paying attention to that are going to accelerate this transformation. We hear a lot about 5G, Open RAN. There's a lot of new tech coming in. What are you watching? Who are the players that we maybe should be paying attention to, some that you really like, that are well positioned? >> We've touched upon it in various of the questions that have proceeded this. So, the sort of Cloudification of the networking environment is obviously really important. The automation of the process we've got to move away from bureaucratic manual processes within these large organizations, because we've got to be more efficient, we've got to be more reliable. So, anything which is related to automation. And then the Open RAN question is really interesting. Once again, you raised this topic of when you go down an Open RAN routes or any open route, it ultimately requires more integration. You've got more moving parts from more suppliers. So, therefore there are potential security issues there, depending on how it's defined, but everybody is entering the Open RAN market. There are some names that you will see regularly next week, being pushed, I'm not going to push them anymore, because some of them just attract the oxygen of attention. But there are plenty out there. The good news is, the key vendors who come from the more traditional side are also absolutely embracing that and accept the openness. But I think the piece which probably excites me more, apart from the whole shift towards Cloud and microservices, is the coming together, the openness between the IT environment and the networking environment. And you see it, for example, in the Open RAN, this thing called the RIC, the RAN Interconnection Controller. We're actually, we're beginning to find people come from the IT side able to control elements within the wireless controller piece. Now that that starts to say to me, we're getting a real handle on it, anybody can manage it. So, more specialization is required, but understanding how the end to end flow works. What we will see of course is announcements about new devices, the big guys like Apple and Samsung do their own thing during the year, and don't interrupt their beat with it with MWC, but you'll see a lot of devices being pushed by many other providers, and you'll see many players trying to break into the different elements of the market. But I think mostly, you'll see the people approaching it from more and more Cloudified angle where things are much more leveraging, that Cloud capability and not relying on the sort of rigid and stodgy infrastructure that we've seen in the past >> Which is kind of interesting because Cloud, a lot of the Clouds are Walled Gardens, at the same time they host a lot of open technologies, and I think as these two worlds collide, IT and the Telco industry, it's going to be interesting to see how the Telco developer ecosystem evolves. And so, that's something that we definitely want to watch. You've got a comment there? >> Yeah, I think the Telco developer they've not traditionally been very big in that area at all, have they? They've had their traditional, if you go back to when you and I were kids, the plain old telephone service was a, they were a one trick pony, and they've moved onto that. In some ways, I'd like them to move on and to have the one trick of plain old broadband that we just get broadband delivered everywhere. So, there are some issues about delivering service to all parts of every country, and obviously the globe, whether we do that through satellite, we might see some interesting satellite stuff coming out during NWC. There's an awful lot of birds flying up there trying to deliver signal back to the ground. Traditionally, that's not been very well received, with the change in generation of satellite might help do that. But we've known traditionally that a lot of developer activity in there, what it does bring to the four though, Dave, is this issue of players like the Ciscos and Junipers, and all these guys of the world who bring a developer community to the table as well. This is where the ecosystem play comes in, because that's where you get the innovation in the application world, working with channels, working with individual applications. And so it's opening up, it's basically building a massive fabric that anybody can tap into, and that's what becomes so exciting. So, the barriers to entry come down, but I think it will see us settling down, a stabilization of relationship between the Telcos and the Hyperscalers, because they need each other as we talked about previously, then the major providers, the Ciscos, Nokias, Ericssons, Huawei's, the way they interact with the Telcos. And then allowing that level of innovation coming in from the smaller players, whether it's on a national or a global basis. So, it's actually a really exciting environment. >> So I want to continue that theme and just talk about Telco in the enterprise. And Chris, on this topic, I want to just touch on some things and bring in some survey data from ETR, Enterprise Technology Research, our partner. And of course the Telcos, they've got lots of data centers. And as we talked about, they're going to be moving certain portions into the Cloud, lots of the front end pieces in particular, but let's look at the momentum of some of the IT players within the ETR dataset, and look at how they compare to some of the Telcos that ETR captures specifically within the Telco industry. So, we filtered this data on the Telco industry. So, this is our X, Y graph that we show you oftentimes on the vertical axis, is net score which measures spending momentum, and in the horizontal axis is market share, which is a measure of pervasiveness in the dataset. Now, this data is for shared accounts just in the Telco sector. So we filtered on certain sectors, like within the technology sectors, Cloud, networking, and so it's narrow, it's a narrow slice of the 1500. It respondents, it represents about 133 shared accounts. And a couple of things to jump right out. Within the Telco industry, it's no surprise, but Azure and AWS have massive presence on the horizontal axis, but what's notable as they score very highly in the vertical axis, with elevated spending velocity on their platforms within Telco. Google Cloud doesn't have as much of a presence, but it's elevated as well. Chris was talking about their data posture before, Arista and Verizon, along with VMware are also elevated, as is Aruba, which is HPEs networking division, but they don't have the presence on the horizontal axis. And you got Red Hat OpenStack is actually quite prominent in Telco as we've reported in previous segments. Is no surprise You see Akamai there. Now remember, this survey is weighted toward enterprise IT, so you have to take that into consideration, but look at Cisco, very strong presence, nicely elevated as is Equinox, both higher than many of the others including Dell, but you could see Dell actually has pretty respectable spending in Telco. It's an area that they're starting to focus on more. And then you got that cluster below, your Juniper, AT&T, Oracle, the rest of HPE TELUM and Lumen which is formerly, century link via IBM. Now again, I'm going to caution you. This is an enterprise IT heavy survey, but the big takeaway is the Cloud players have a major presence inside of firms that say they're in the telecommunications industry. And certain IT players like Cisco, VMware and Red Hat appear to be well positioned inside these accounts. So Chris, I'm not sure if any of this commentary resonates with you, but it seems that the Telcos would love to partner up with traditional IT vendors and Cloud players, and maybe find ways to grow their respective businesses. >> I think some of the data points you brought out there are very important. So yes, we've seen a Microsoft Azure and AWS very strong working with Telcos. We've seen Google Cloud platform actually really aggressively pushed into the market certainly the last 12, 24 months. So yeah, they're well positioned, and they all come from a slightly different background. As I said, the Google with this, perhaps more data centric approach in its analytics, tools very useful, AWS with this outpost reaching out, connecting out, and as you'll, with its knowledge of the the Microsoft business market certainly pushing into private networks as well, by the way. So yeah, and Cisco, of course in there does have, and it's a mass scale division, a lot of activity there, some of the people collapsing, some of that rooting an obstacle together, their big push on Silicon. So, what you've got here is a sort of cross representation of many of the different sorts of suppliers who are active in this market. Now Telcos is a big spenders, the telecom market, as we said, a $1.4 trillion market, they spend a lot, they probably have to double bubble spend at the moment to get over the hump of 5G investment, to build out fiber where they need to build out. So, any anything that relates to that is of course a major spending opportunity, a major market opportunity for players. And we know when you need the infrastructure behind it, whether it's in data centers or in their own data centers or in the Cloud to deliver against it. So, what I do like about this as an analyst, a lot of people would focus on one particular piece of the market. So you specialize on handsets, people specialize on home markets and home gateways. So, I tend to sit back and try and look at the big picture, the whole picture. And I think we're beginning to see some very good momentum where people are, where companies are building upon, of course their core business within the telecom industry, extending it out. But the lines of demarcation are blurring between enterprise, Telco, and indeed moving down into small business. And you think about the SD-WAN Market, which came from nowhere to build a much more flexible solution for connecting people over the wide area network, which has been brilliant during the pandemic, because it's allowed us to extend that to home, but be of course, build a campus ready for the future as well. So there are plenty of opportunities out there. I think the big question in my mind is always about from going into the Telco, as I said, whether they wannna reduce the number of suppliers on the roster. So that puts a question mark against some of the open approaches, and then from the Telco to the end customer, because it goes to the Telcos, 30% of their revenue comes from the enterprise market, 60% from the consumer market. How do they leverage the channel? Which includes all the channels, we talked about security, all of the IT stuff that you've already touched upon and the Cloud. It's going to be a very interesting mix and balancing act between different channels to get the services that the customers want. And I think increasingly, customers are more aware of the opportunities open to them to reach back into this ecosystem and say, "Yeah, I want a piece of humans to Telco, but I want it to come to me through my local integrated channel, because I need a bit of their expertise on security." So, fascinating market, and I think not telecom's no longer considered in isolation, but very much as part of that broader digital ecosystem. >> Chris, it's very hard to compress an analysis of a $1.4 trillion business into 30 or 35 minutes, but you're just the guy to help me do it. So, I got to really thank you for participating today and bringing your knowledge. Awesome. >> Do you know, it's my pleasure. I love looking at this market. Obviously I love analogies like Harry Potter, which makes it bring things to life. But at the end of the day, we as people, we want to be connected, we as business, we want to be connected, in society we want to be connected. So, the fundamental of this industry are unbelievably strong. Let's hope that governments don't mess with it too much. And let's hope that we get the right technology comes through, and help support that world of connectivity going forward. >> All right, Chris, well, I'll be texting you from Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, and many thanks to my colleague, Chris Lewis, he brought some serious knowledge today and thank you. And remember, I publish each week on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com. And these episodes are all available as podcasts. You just got to search for Breaking Analysis podcasts. You can always connect with me on twitter @dvellante or email me at dave.vellante@siliconangle.com. And you can comment on my LinkedIn post, and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data. This is Dave Vellante, for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Last year in 2020 it was good to be in tech and even better to be in the cloud, as organizations had to rely on remote cloud services to keep things running. We believe that tech spending will increase seven to 8% in 2021. But we don't expect investments in cloud computing to sharply attenuate, when workers head back to the office. It's not a zero sum game, and we believe that pent up demand in on-prem data centers will complement those areas of high growth that we saw last year, namely cloud, AI, security, data and automation. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis we'll provide our take on the latest ETR COVID survey, and share why we think the tech boom will continue, well into the future. So let's take a look at the state of tech spending. Fitch Ratings has upped its outlook for global GDP to 6.1% for January's 5.3% projection. We've always expected tech spending to outperform GDP by at least 100 to 200 basis points, so we think 2021 could see 8% growth for the tech sector. That's a massive swing from last year's,5% contraction, and it's being powered by spending in North America, a return of small businesses, and, the massive fiscal stimulus injection from the U.S led central bank actions. As we'll show you, the ETR survey data suggests that cloud spending is here to stay, and a dollar spent back in the data center doesn't necessarily mean less spending on digital initiatives, generally and cloud specifically. Moreover, we see pent up demand for core on-prem data center infrastructure, especially networking. Now one caveat, is we continue to have concerns for the macro on-prem data storage sector. There are pockets of positivity, for example, pure storage seems to have accelerating momentum. But generally the data suggests the cloud and flash headroom, continue, to pressure spending on storage. Now we don't expect the stock market's current rotation out of tech. We don't expect that that changes the fundamental spending dynamic. We see cloud, AI and ML, RPA, cybersecurity and collaboration investments still hovering above, that 40% net score. Actually cybersecurity is not quite there, but it is a priority area for CIOs. We'll talk about that more later. And we expect that those high growth sectors will stay steady in ETRs April survey along with continued spending on application modernization in the form of containers. Now let me take a moment to comment on the recent action in tech stocks. If you've been following the market, you know that the rate on the 10-year Treasury note has been rising. This is important, because the 10 years of benchmark, and it affects other interest rates. As interest rates rise, high growth tech stocks, they become less attractive. And that's why there's been a rotation, out of the big tech high flyer names of 2020. So why do high growth stocks become less attractive to investors when interest rates rise? Well, it's because investors are betting on the future value of cash flows for these companies, and when interest rates go up, the future values of those cash flows shrink, making the valuations less attractive. Let's take an example. Snowflake is a company with a higher revenue multiple than pretty much any other stock, out there in the tech industry. Revenues at the company are growing more than 100%, last quarter, and they're projected to have a revenue of a billion dollars next year. Now on March 8th, Snowflake was valued at around $80 billion and was trading at roughly 75x forward revenue. Today, toward the middle the end of March. Snowflake is valued at about 50 billion or roughly 45x forward revenue. So lower growth companies that throw off more cash today, become more attractive in a rising rate climate because, the cash they throw off today is more valuable than it was in a low rate environment. The cash is there today versus, a high flying tech company where the cash is coming down the road and doesn't have to be discounted on a net present value basis. So the point is, this is really about math, not about fundamental changes in spending. Now the ETR spending data has shown, consistent upward momentum, and that cycle is continuing, leading to our sanguine outlook for the sector. This chart here shows the progression of CIO expectations on spending over time, relative to previous years. And you can see the steady growth in expectations each quarter, hitting 6% growth in 2021 versus 2020 for the full year. ETR estimates show and they do this with a 95% confidence level, that spending is going to be up between 5.1 to 6.8% this year. We are even more up optimistic accounting for recent upward revisions in GDP. And spending outside the purview of traditional IT, which we think will be a tailwind, due to digital initiatives and shadow tech spending. ETR covers some of that, but it is really a CIO heavy survey. So there's some parts that we think can grow even faster, than ETR survey suggests. Now the positive spending outlook, it's broad based across virtually all industries that ETR tracks. Government spending leads the pack by a wide margin, which probably gives you a little bit of heartburn. I know it does for me, yikes. Healthcare is interesting. Perhaps due to pent up demand, healthcare has been so busy saving lives, that it has some holes to fill. But look at the sectors at 5% or above. Only education really lags notably. Even energy which got crushed last year, showing a nice rebound. Now let's take a look at some of the strategies that organizations have employed during COVID, and see how they've changed. Look, the picture is actually quite positive in our view. This data shows the responses over five survey snapshots, starting in March of 2020. Most people are still working from home that really hasn't changed much. But we're finally seeing some loosening of the travel restrictions imposed last year, is a notable drop in canceled business trips. It's still high, but it's very promising trend. Quick aside, looks like Mobile World Congress is happening in late June in Barcelona. The host of the conference just held a show in Shanghai and 20,000 attendees showed up. theCube is planning to be there in Barcelona along with TelcoDr, Who took over Ericsson's 65,000 square foot space, when Ericsson tapped out of the conference. We are good together we're going to lay out the future of the digital telco, in a hybrid: physical slash virtual event. With the ecosystem of telcos, cloud, 5G and software communities. We're very excited to be at the heart of reinventing the event experience for the coming decade. Okay, back to the data. Hiring freezes, way down. Look at new IT deployments near flat from last quarter, with big uptick from a year ago. Layoffs, trending downward, that's really a positive. Hiring momentum is there. So really positive signs for tech in this data. Now let's take a look at the work from home, survey data. We've been sharing this for several quarters now, remember, the data showed that pre pandemic around 15 to 16% of employees worked remotely. And we had been sharing the CIO is expected that figure to slowly decline from the 70% pandemic levels and come into the spring in the summer, hovering in the 50% range. But then eventually landing in the mid 30s. Now the current survey shows 31%. So, essentially, it's exactly double from the pre COVID levels. It's going to be really interesting to see because across the board organizations are reporting, big increases in productivity as a result of how they've responded to COVID in the remote work practices and the infrastructure that's been put in place. And look, a lot of workers are expecting to stay remote. So we'll see where this actually lands. My personal feelings, the number is going to be higher than the low 30s. Perhaps well into the mid to upper 30s. Now let's take a look at the cloud and on-prem MCS. So were a little bit out on a limb here with a can't have a cake and eat it too scenario. Meaning pent up demand for data center infrastructure on-prem is going to combine with the productivity benefits of cloud in the digital imperative. So that means that technology budgets are going to get a bigger piece of the overall spending pie, relative to other initiatives. At least for the near term. ETR asked respondents about how the return to physical, is going to impact on-prem architectures and applications. You can see 63% of the respondents, had a cloud friendly answer, as shown in the first two bars. Whereas 30% had an on-prem friendly answer, as shown in the next three bars. Now, what stands out, is that only 5% of respondents plan to increase their on-prem spend to above pre COVID levels. Sarbjeet Johal pinged me last night and asked me to jump into a clubhouse session with Martin Casado and the other guys from Andreessen Horowitz. They were having this conversation about the coming cloud backlash. And how cloud native companies are spending so much, too much, in their opinion, on AWS and other clouds. And at some point, as they scale, they're going to have to claw back technology infrastructure on-prem, due to their AWS vague. I don't know. This data, it certainly does not suggest that that is happening today. So the cloud vendors, they keep getting more volume, you would think they're going to have better prices and better economies of scales than we'll see on-prem. And as we pointed out, the repatriation narrative that you hear from many on-prem vendors is kind of dubious. Look, if AWS Azure, and Google can't provide IT infrastructure and better security than I can on-prem, then something is amiss. Now however, they are creating an oligopoly. And if they get too greedy and get hooked on the margin crack, of cloud, they'd better be careful, or they're going to become the next regulated utility? So, it's going to be interesting to see if the Andreessen scenario has (laughs) legs, maybe they have another agenda, maybe a lot of their portfolio companies, have ideas are around doing things to help on-prem? Why are we so optimistic that we'll see a stronger 2021 on-prem spend if the cloud continues to command so much attention? Well, first, because nearly 20% of customers say there will be an uptick in on-prem spending. Second, we saw in 2020, that the big on-prem players, Dell, VMware, Oracle, and SAP in particular, and even IBM made it through, okay. And they've managed to figure out how to work through the crisis. And finally, we think that the lines between on-prem and cloud, and hybrid and cross cloud and edge will blur over the next five years. We've talked about this a lot, that abstraction layer that we see coming, and there's some real value opportunities there. It'll take some time. But we do see there, that the traditional vendors, are going to attack those new opportunities and create value across clouds and hybrid systems and out to the edge. Now, as those demarcation lines become more gray, a hybrid world is emerging that is going to require hardware and software investments that reduce latency and are proximate to users buildings and distributed infrastructure. So we see spending in certain key areas, continuing to be strong across the board, will require connecting on-prem to cloud in edge workloads. Here's where it CIOs see the action, asked to cite the technologies that will get the most attention in the next 12 months. These seven stood out among the rest. No surprise that cyber comes out as top priority, with cloud pretty high as well. But interesting to see the uptick in collaboration in networking. Execs are seeing the importance of collaboration technologies for remote workers. No doubt, there's lots of Microsoft Teams in that bar. But there's some pent up demand it seems for networking, we find that very interesting. Now, just to put this in context, in a spending context. We'll share a graphic from a previous breaking analysis episode. This chart shows the net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis. And the market share or pervasiveness in the ETR data set on the horizontal axis. The big four areas of spend momentum are cloud, ML and AI, containers in RPA. This is from the January survey, we don't expect a big change in the upcoming April data, we'll see. But these four stand out above the 40% line that we've highlighted, which to us is an indicator of elevated momentum. Now, note on the horizontal axis only cloud, cloud is the only sector that enjoys both greater than 60% market share on the x axis, and is above the 40% net score line and the y axis. So even though security is a top priority as we were talking about earlier. It competes with other budget items, still right there certainly on the horizontal axis, but it competes with other initiatives for that spend momentum. Okay, so key takeaways. Seven to 8% tech spending growth expected for 2021. Cloud is leading the charge, it's big and it has spending momentum, so we don't expect a big rotation out of cloud back to on-prem. Now, having said that, we think on-prem will benefit from a return to a post isolation economy. Because of that pent up demand. But we caution we think there are some headwinds, particularly in the storage sector. Rotation away from tech in the stock market is not based on a fundamental change in spending in our view, or demand, rather it's stock market valuation math. So there should be some good buying opportunities for you in the coming months. As money moves out of tech into those value stocks. But the market is very hard to predict. Oh 2020 was easy to make money. All you had to do is buy high growth and momentum tech stocks on dips. 2021 It's not that simple. So you got to do your homework. And as we always like to stress, formulate a thesis and give it time to work for you. Iterate and improve when you feel like it's not working for you. But stay current, and be true to your strategy. Okay, that's it for today. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. So please subscribe. I publish weekly in siliconangle.com and wikibond.com and always appreciate the comments on LinkedIn. You can DM me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. Don't forget to check out etr.plus where all the survey data science actually resides. Some really interesting things that they're about to launch. So do follow that. This is Dave vellante. Thanks for watching theCube Insights powered by ETR. Good health to you, be safe and we'll see you next time.

>> From the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube in ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> There are four A players, in the IS slash pass hyperscale cloud services space, AWS, Azure, Alibaba, and alphabet, pretty clever, huh? In our view, these four have the resources, the momentum, and stamina to outperform all others virtually indefinitely. Now combined, we believe these companies will generate more than $115 billion in 2021 IaaS and PaaS revenue. That is a substantial chunk of market opportunity that is growing as a whole in the mid 30% range in 2021. Welcome to this week's Wiki bond cube insights, powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we are initiating coverage of Alibaba for our IaaS and PaaS market segments. And we'll update you on the latest hyperscale cloud market data, and survey data from ETR. Big week in hyperscale cloud land, Amazon and alphabet reported earnings and AWS CEO Andy Jassy was promoted to lead Amazon overall. I interviewed John Furrier on the cube this week. John has a close relationship with Jassy and a unique perspective on these developments. And we simulcast the interview on clubhouse, and then hosted a two hour clubhouse room that brought together all kinds of great perspectives on the topic. And then, we took the conversation to Twitter. Now in that discussion, we were just riffing on our updated cloud estimates and our numbers. And here's this tweet that inspired the addition of Alibaba. Now this gentleman is a tech journalist out of New Delhi and he pointed out that we were kind of overlooking Alibaba and I responded that no, we do not just discounting them but we just need to do more homework in the company's cloud business. He also said we're ignoring IBM, but really they're not in this conversation as a hyperscale IaaS competitor to the big four in our view. And we'll just leave it at that for now on IBM, but, back to Alibaba and the big four, we actually did some homework. So thank you for that suggestion. And this chart shows our updated IaaS figures and includes the full year 2020 which was pretty close to our Q4 projections. You know, the big change is we've added Alibaba in the mix. Now these four companies last year, accounted for $86 billion in revenue, and they grew it 41% rate combined relative to 2019. Now, notably as your revenue for the first time is more than half of that of AWS's revenue which of course hit over $45 billion. AWS's revenue, over top 45 billion last year, which is just astounding. Alibaba you'll note, is larger than Google cloud. The Google cloud platform, I should say GCP, at just over eight billion for Alibaba. Now, the reason Baba is such a formidable competitor, is because the vast majority of its revenue comes from China inside that country. And the company do have plans to continue their international expansion, so we see Alibaba as a real force here. Their cloud business showed positive EBITDA for the first time in the history of the company last quarter. So that has people excited. Now, Google, as we've often reported, is far behind AWS and Azure, despite its higher growth rates Google's overall cloud business lost 5.6 billion in 2020 which has some people concerned. We on the other hand are thrilled, because as we've reported in our view, Google needs to get its head out of its ads cloud is it's future. And we're very excited about the company pouring investments into its cloud business. Look with $120 billion essentially in the balance sheet, we can think of a better use of its cash. Now, I want to stress that these figures are our best efforts to create an apples to apples comparison across all four clouds. Many people have asked about, how much of these figures represent, for example, Microsoft office 365 or Google G suite, which by the way now is called workspaces. And the answer is our intention is $0. These are our estimates of worldwide IaaS in PaaS revenue. You know, some of said, we're too low. Some of said, we're too high. Hey, if you have better numbers, Please share them, happy to have a look. Now you maybe asking, what are the drivers of these figures and the growth that we're showing here? Well, all four of these companies, of course, they're benefiting from an accelerated shift to digital as a result to COVID, but each one has other tailwinds. You know, for example, AWS, it's Capitalizing on its a large headstart. It's created tremendous brand value. And as well, despite the fact that, while we estimate that more than 75% of AWS revenue comes from compute and storage, AWS is feature and functional differentiation combined with this large ecosystem is a very much a driving force of it's growth. In the case of Azure, in addition to its captive software application estate, the company on its earnings calls cited strong growth in its consumption based business across all of its industries and customer segments. As we've said, many times, Microsoft makes it really easy for customers to tap into Azure and a true consumption pricing model, with no minimums and cancel any time. Those kinds of terms make it extremely attractive to experiment and get hooked. We certainly saw this with AWS over the years. Now for Google it's growth is being powered by its outstanding technology, and in particular its prowess in AI and analytics. As well we suspect that much of the losses in Google cloud are coming from large go to market investments for Google cloud platform, and they're paying growth dividends. Now, as Tim Crawford said on Twitter, 6 billion, you know that's not too shabby. Also Google cited wins at Wayfair in Etsy, that Google is putting forth in our view to signal that many retailers they might be are you reluctant to do business with Amazon, was of course a big retailer competitor. These are two high profile names, we'd like to see more in future quarters and likely will. Now let's give you another view of this data and paint a picture of, how the pie is being carved out in the market. Actually we'll use bars because my, millennials sounding boards they hate pie charts. And I like to pay attention, to these emerging voices. At any rate amongst these four, AWS has more than half of the market. AWS and Azure are well ahead of the rest. And we think we'll continue to hold serve for quite some time. Now while we're impressed with Alibaba, they're currently constrained to doing business mostly in China. And we think it'll take many years for Baba and GCP to close that gap on the two leaders if they'll ever even get there. Now let's take a look at, what the customers are saying within the ETR survey data. The chart that we're showing here, this is X, Y chart that we show all the time. It's got net score or spending moments on the vertical axis, and market share or the pervasiveness in the datasets in the survey on the horizontal axis. Now on the upper right, you can see the net scores and the number of mentions for each company and the detailed behind this data. And what we've done here is cut the January survey data of 1,262 respondents, you can see that in filtered in there on the left, and we've filtered the data by cloud meaning the respondents are answering about the companies, cloud computing offerings only. So we're filtering out anything of the non-cloud spend. That's a nice little capability of the ETR platform. Azure is really quite amazing to us. It's got a net score of 72.6%, and that's across 572 responses out of the 1262. AWS is the next most pervasive in the data set with 492 shared accounts and a net score of 57.1%. Now, you may be wondering, well, why is Azure bigger in the dataset than AWS? And when we just told you that the opposite is the case in the market in the previous slide. And the answer is, like this is a survey and it's a lot of Microsoft out there, they're everywhere. And I have no doubt that the respondants notion of cloud doesn't directly map into IaaS and PaaS views of the world, but the trends are clear and consistent. Amazon and Azure, they dominate in this market space. Now for context, we've included functions in the form of AWS Lambda as your functions and Google cloud functions. Because, as you can see, there's a lot of spending momentum in these capabilities in these services. You'll also note, that we've added Alibaba to this chart, and it's got a respectable 63.6% net Score, but there are only 11 shared responses in the data. So they'll go into the bank on these numbers, but look, 11 data points, we'll take it. It's better than zero data points. We've also added VMware cloud on AWS in this chart, and you can see that, that capability that service, that has the momentum and you can see those ones that we've highlighted above the 40% red dotted line, that's where the real action in the market is. So all of those offerings have very strong or strong spending velocity in the ETR data set. Now, for context, we've put Oracle and IBM in the chart. And you can see, they both have, you know they've got a decent presence in the data set. They have 132 mentions and 81 responses respectively. So Oracle, they've got a positive net score of 16.7%, and IBM is in a negative 6.2%. Now, remember this is for their cloud offerings, as the respondents in the data set see them. So what does this mean? It says that among the 132 survey respondents answering that they use Oracle cloud, 16.7% more customers are spending more on Oracle's cloud than are spending less. In the case of IBM, it says more customers are spending less than spending more. Both companies are in the red zone, and show far less momentum than the leaders. Look, I've said many times that the good news is, that Oracle and IBM at least have clouds. But they're not direct competitors of the big four in our view, there just not. They have a large software business, and they can migrate their customers, to their respective clouds and market hybrid cloud services. Their definition of cloud is most certainly different than that of AWS, which is fine, but both companies use what I call a kitchen sink method of reporting their cloud business. Oracle includes, cloud and license support, often with revenue recognition at the time of contract, With a term that's renewable and, it also includes on-prem fees, for things like database and middleware, and if, you want to call that cloud, fine. IBM is just as bad, maybe they're worse and includes so much legacy stuff and its cloud number to hide the ball. It's just not even worth trying to unpack for this episode, I have previously and frankly, it's just not a good use of time. Now, as I've said before, both companies they're in the game that can make good money provisioning infrastructure to support their respective software businesses. I just don't consider them hyperscale class clouds which are defined by the big four, and really only those four. And I'm sure I'll get hate mail about that statement, and I'm happy to defend that position, so please reach out. Okay, but one other important thing that we want to discuss is something that came up this week in our Twitter conversation. Here's a tweet from Matt Baker who had strategic planning for Dell. He was responding to someone who commented on our cloud data, basically saying that, with all that cloud revenue who took the hit, which pockets did it come out of, and Matt was saying, look, it's coming out of customer pockets, but can we please end this zero sum game narrative. In other words, it's not a dollar for cloud that doesn't translate into a lost dollar from on-prem for the legacy companies. So let's take a look at that. For first I would agree, with Matt Baker, it's not a one for one swap of spend but there's definitely been an impact. And here's some data from ETR that can, maybe give us some insight here. What this chart shows is a cut of 915 hyperscale cloud accounts. So within those big four, and within those accounts we show the spending velocity or net score cut within further sectors representative of these on-prem players. So servers, storage and networking, so we cut the data on those three segments. And we're looking here at, VMware, Cisco, Dell, HPE, and IBM, for 2020 and into 2021. It's kind of an interesting picture, it shows the net scores for the January of 20 April, July and October 20 surveys and the January 21 surveys. Now all the on-prem players, they were of course impacted by COVID, IBM seems to be that counter trend line. Not that they weren't impacted, but they have this notable mainframe cycle thing going on. And you know, they're in a down cycle now. So it's kind of opposite of the other guys in terms of the survey momentum. And you can see pretty much, all the others are showing upticks headed into 2021, Cisco, you know kind of flattish, but stable and held up a bit. So to Matt Baker's point, despite the 35% or so growth expected for the big four and 2021 the on-prem leaders are showing some signs of positive spending momentum. So let's dig into this a little bit further, 'cause we're not saying cloud hasn't hurt on prem spending. You know, of course it has. Here's that same picture, over a 10 year view. So you're seeing this long, slow, decline occur, and it's no surprise. If you think about the prevailing model for servers, storage, and networking, on prem in particular. Servers have been perpetually under utilized, even with virtualization. You know, with the exception of like backup jobs, there aren't many workloads that can max out server utilization. So we kept buying more servers to give us performance headroom and ran at 20, 30% utilization, you know in a good day. Yes I know some folks can get up over 50%, but generally speaking servers are well under utilized in storage my gosh, it's kind of the same story, maybe even worse. Because for years it was powered by a mechanical system. So more spindles are required to gain performance, lots of copying going on, lots of, you know, pre-flash waste. And in networking it was a story of got to buy more ports. You've got to buy more ports. In the case of these segments, customers will just defense essentially, forced in this endless cycle of planning, procuring, you know, first planning. They got to get the secure the CapEx, and then they procure, and then they over-provision, and then they manage, you know, ongoing. So then along comes AWS, and says, try this on for size and you can see from that chart, the impact of cloud on those bellwether on-prem infrastructure players. Now, just to give you a little bit more insight on this topic, here's a picture of the wheel charts from the ETR data set. For AWS Microsoft, Google, and we brought in VMware to compare them. A wheel chart shows the percent of customers saying they'll either add a platform new that's the lime green. Increased spending by more than 5%, that's the forest green spend flat relative to last year. That's the gray spend less by more than 5% down, that's the pinkish or leave the platform, that's the Bright red. You subtract the red from the green and you get a percentage that represents net score, AWS with a net score of 60% is off the charts good. Microsoft remember, this includes the entire Microsoft business portfolio, not just Azure, so it's still really strong. Google, frankly, we'd like to see higher net scores and VMware's, you know, so there's a gold standard for on-prem. So we include them, so you can see for reference the strong, but notice they got a much, much bigger flat spending, which is what you would expect from some of these more mature players. Now let's compare these scores to the other, on-prem Kings. So this is not surprising to see, but the greens, they go down, the flats that gray area goes up compared to the cloud guys and the red which is virtually non-existent within AWS, goes into the high teens with the exception of Cisco which despite its exposure to virtually all industries including those hard hit by COVID shows pretty low read scores. So that's, that's good. And I got to share one other, look at this wheel chart for pure storage. We're not really not sure what's happening here, but this is impressive. We're seeing a huge rebound, and you can see we've superimposed as candlestick over comparing previous quarters surveys and, look at the huge up check in the January survey for pure that blue line. That's highlighted in that red dot at ellipse, jumps to a 63% net score from below 20% last quarter. You know, we'll see, I've never seen that kind of uptick before for an established company. And, you know, maybe it's pent up demand or some other anomaly in the data. We'll find out when pure reports in 2021, because remember these are forward looking surveys. But the point is, you still see action going on in hybrid and on-prem, and despite the freight train that is cloud, coming at the legacy players. You know, not that pure is legacy, but it's, you know, it's no longer a lanky teenager. And I think the bottom line, coming back to Matt Baker's point, is there are opportunities that the on-prem players can pursue in hybrid and multi-cloud, and we've talked about this a lot where you're building abstraction layer, on top of the hyperscale clouds and letting them build out their data center presence worldwide, spend on capex, they're going to outspend everybody. And these guys, these on-prem, and hybrid and multi-cloud folks they're going to have to add value on top of that. Now if they move fast, you no doubt there'll be acquiring startups to make that happen. They're going to have to put forth the value proposition and execute on that, in a way that adds clear value above and beyond what the hyperscalers are going to do. Now, the challenge, is picking those right spots, moving fast enough and balancing wall street promises with innovation. There's that same old dilemma. Let's face It. Amazon for years could lose tons of money and not get killed in the street. Google, they got so much cash, they can't spend it fast enough and Microsoft after years of going sideways is finally figured out and the some. Alibaba they're new to our analysis, but it's looking like you know, it's the Amazon of China, Plus ANT despite its regulatory challenges with the Chinese government. So all four of these players, are in the driver's seat in our view. And they're leading in not only cloud, but AI. And of course the data keeps flowing into their cloud. So they're really are in a strong position. Bottom line is we're still early into the cloud platform era and it's morphing. It's from a collection of remote cloud services, into this ubiquitous, sensing, thinking, anticipatory system, that's increasingly automated and working towards full automation. It's intelligent and it's hyper decentralizing toward the edge. One thing's for sure, the next 10 years, they're not going to be the same as the past 10. Okay, that's it for now. Remember I publish each week on Wikibond.com and siliconANGLE.com, these episodes they're all available as podcasts just search for breaking analysis podcast. You can always connect on Twitter. I'm @dvellante or email me at david.Vellante@siliconANGLE.com. I love the comments on LinkedIn and of course in clubhouse the new social app. So please follow me, so that you can get notified when we start a room and riff on these topics. And don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action. This is Dave Vellante for the cube insights powered by ETR be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCube studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCube in ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> New data suggests the tech spending will be higher than we previously thought for 2021. COVID learnings, a faster than expected vaccine rollout, productivity gains in the last 10 months, and broad-based cloud leverage lead us to raise our outlook for next year. We now expect a three to 5% increase in 2021 technology spending, roughly double our previously forecasted growth rate of 2%. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's we keep on Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're going to share new spending data from ETR partners and take a preliminary look at which sectors and which companies are showing momentum heading into next year. Let's get right into it. The data is pointing to a strong 2021 rebound. A latest survey from ETR and the information from theCube Community suggests that the accelerated pace of the vaccine rollout pent up demand for normalcy and learnings from COVID will boost 2021 tech spending higher than previously anticipated. Now a key factor we've cited is that the forced March to digital transformation due to the pandemic created a massive proof of concept for what works and what doesn't in a digital business. CIOs are planning to bet on those sure things to drive continued productivity improvements and new business opportunities. Now, speaking of productivity, nearly 80% of respondents in the latest ETR survey indicate that productivity either stayed the same or improved over the past three months. Now of those, the vast majority, more than 80% cited improvements in productivity. This has been a common theme throughout the year. As well, the expectation among CIOs is that many workers will return to the office in the second half of the year, which we expect will drive new spending in the infrastructure needs of company HQs, which have been neglected over the past 10 months. Now, despite the expectation that many workers will return to the office, 2020 has shown us that working remotely, hey, it's here to stay, and a much larger number of employees are going to be permanently remote working than pre pandemic. ETR survey data shows that that number is going to be approximately double over the longterm. We'll look at some of that specific data. In addition, cloud computing, it became the staple of business viability in 2020. Those that were up the cloud adoption ramp, well, they benefited greatly, those that weren't well, they had to learn fast. Now, along with remote work cloud necessitated new thinking around network security, and as we've reported identity access management, endpoint security and cloud security with the beneficiaries. Companies like Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, a number of others continue to ride this wave. Larger established security companies like Cisco, Palo Alto Networks, F5, Fortunate and others, they have major portions of their business that are benefiting from the tailwinds in the shift and network traffic, as a result of cloud and remote work. Now, despite all the momentum in the market and the expect of improvements in 2021, these tailwinds are not expected to be evenly distributed, far from it. We think Q4 is going to remain soft relative to last year and Q1 2021 is going to be flat, maybe up slightly. Remember the COVID impact was definitely felt in March of this year. So based on the earnings that we saw, there may be some upside in Q1, given that organizations are still being cautious in Q4, and really there's still some uncertainty in Q1. Let's look at some of the survey responses and you'll see why we're more optimistic than we've previously reported. This chart shows the responses to key questions around spending trajectories from the March, June, September, and December surveys of this year. Now it's no surprise that there's been little change in remote workers and limiting business travel. But look at the other categories, seeing a dramatic reduction in hiring freezes. The percentage of companies freezing new IT deployments continues to drop throughout the year. And then conversely, the percentage of companies accelerating new it deployments that's sharply up to 34% from the March low of 12%. And look at the headcount trends. The percentage of companies instituting layoffs. It continues its downward trajectory while accelerated hiring is now up to 17%. So there's a lot to be excited about in these results. Now let's look the remote worker trend. How do CIO see that shift in the near to midterm? This chart shows the work from home data and it's amazingly consistent from the September survey drill down. You can see CIO's is indicate that on average, 15 to 60% of workers were remote prior to the pandemic, and that jumped up to 72 to 73% currently, and is expected to stay in the high fifties until the summer of 2021. Thereafter, organizations expect that the number of employees that work remotely on a permanent basis is going to more than double to 34% long term. By the way, I've talked to a number of executives, CEOs, CIOs, and CFOs that expect that number to be higher than these especially in the technology sector. They expect more than half of their workers to be remote and are looking to consolidate facilities cost to save money. As we've said, cloud computing has been the most significant contributor to business resilience and digital transformation this year. So let's look at cloud strategies and see how CIOs expect those to evolve. This chart shows responses to how organizations see multi-cloud evolving. It's interesting to note the ETR call-out, which concludes that the narrative around multi-cloud multi-cloud is real, and it is. But I want to talk to you about a flip side to this notion in that, as many customers have, or are planning to increasingly concentrate workloads in the cloud. This actually makes some sense. Sure, virtually every major company uses multiple clouds, but more often than not, it concentrate work on a primary cloud. CIO strategies, they're not generally evenly distributed across clouds. The data shows that this is the case for less than 20% of the respondents, rather organizations are typically going to apply an 80, 20 or a 70, 30 rule for their multi-cloud approach. Meaning they pick a primary cloud on which most work is done, and then they use alternative clouds as either a hedge or maybe for specific workloads or maybe even data protection purposes. Now, if you think about it, optimizing on a primary cloud allows organizations to simplify their security and governance and consolidate their skills. At this point in the cloud evolution, it seems CIOs feel there's more value that is going to come from leveraging the cloud to change their operating models, and maybe broadly spreading the wealth to reduce risk or maybe cut costs, or maybe even to tap specialized capabilities. What's more in thinking about AWS and Microsoft respectively. Each can make a very strong case from MANO cloud. AWS has more features than any other cloud, and as such can handle most workloads. Microsoft can make a similar argument for its customers that have an affinity and a largest state of Microsoft software. The key for multi-cloud in our view will be the degree to which technology vendors can abstract the underlying cloud complexity and create a layer that floats above the clouds and adds incremental value. Snowflakes data cloud is one of the best examples of this, and we've covered that pretty extensively. Now, clearly VMware and Red Hat have aspirations at the infrastructure layer in a similar fashion. Pure storage, and NetApp are a couple of the largest storage players with similar visions. And then Qumulo and Clumio are two other examples with promising technologies, but they have a much smaller install base. Take a look at Cisco, Dell, IBM and HPE. They have a lot to gain and a lot to lose in this cloud game. So multi-cloud is an imperative for these leaders, but for them it's much more complicated because of the complexity and vastness of their portfolios. And notably Dell has VMware and IBM of course has Red Hat, which are key assets that can be leveraged for this multi-cloud game. HPE has a channel and a large install base, but all of these firms, they have to spread R&D much more thinly than some of these other companies that we mentioned for example. The bottom line is that multi-cloud has to be more than just plugging into an operating well on any of the clouds. It require... Which is by the way, this is mostly where we are today. It requires an incremental value proposition that solves a clear problem, and at the same time runs efficiently, meaning it takes advantage of cloud native services at scale. What sectors are showing momentum heading into 2021? And who are some of the names that are looking strong? We've reported a lot that cloud containers and container orchestration, machine intelligence and automation are by far the hottest sectors, the biggest areas of investment with the greatest spending momentum. Now we measure this in ETR parlance, remember by net score. But here's the good news, almost every other sector in the ETR taxonomy with the notable exception of IT outsourcing and IT consulting is showing positive spending momentum relative to previous surveys this year. Yeah, maybe not, it's not a shock, but it appears that the tech spending recovery will be broad-based. It's also worth noting that there are several vendors that stand out and we show a number of them here. CrowdStrike, Microsoft has had consistent performance in the dataset throughout this year. Okta, we called out those guys last year and they've clearly performed as you can see in their earnings reports. Pure storage, interestingly, big acceleration and a turnaround from last quarter in the dataset, and of course, snowflake has been off the charts as we reported many times. These guys are all seeing highly accelerated momentum. UiPath just announced its intent to IPO, AWS, Google, Zscaler, SailPoint, ServiceNow, and Elastic, these all continue to trend up. And so, there are some real positives that we're looking for a member of the ETR surveys, they're forward-looking. So we'll see, as we catch up next quarter. Now, before we wrap, I want to say a few words on security, and maybe it's a bit of a non-sequitur here, but I think it's relevant to the trends that we've been discussing, especially as we talk about moving to the cloud. And as you know, we've reported many times on the security space, basically updating you quarterly with our scenarios and the spending and the technology trends and highlighting our four-star companies. Four-star company's insecurity on those with both momentum and significant market presence. And last year we put CrowdStrike, Okta and Zscaler, and some others on the radar. And we've closely track the cyber business of larger companies with a security portfolio like Palo Alto and Cisco, and more recently, VMware has made some acquisitions. Now the government hacked that became news this week. It really underscores the importance of security. It remains the most challenging area for organizations because well, failure's not an option, skills are short, tools are abundant, the adversaries are very well-funded and extremely capable yet failure is common as we saw this week. And there's a misconception that cloud solves the security problem, and it's important to point out that it does not. Cloud is a shared responsibility model, meaning the cloud provider is going to secure the infrastructure for example, but it's up to you as the customer to configure things properly and deal with application security. It's ultimately on you. And the example of S3 is instructive because we've seen a number S3 breaches over the years where the customer didn't properly configure the S3 bucket. We're talking about companies like Honda and Capital One, not just small businesses that don't have the SecOps resources. And generally it was because a non-security person was configuring things. Maybe they were Or developers who are not focused on security, and perhaps permission set too broadly, and access was given to far too many people. Whatever the issue, it took some breaches and subsequent education to increase awareness of this problem and tighten it up. We see some similar trends occurring with new workloads, especially in cloud databases. It's becoming so easy to spin up new data warehouses for example, and we believe that there are exposures out there due the lack of awareness or inconsistent corporate governance being applied to these new data stores. As well, even though important areas like threat intelligence and database security are important, SecOps budgets are stretched thin. And when you ask companies where the priorities are, these fall lower down the list, these areas specifically have taken a back seat, the endpoint, identity and cloud security. And we bring this up because it's a potential blind spot as we saw this week with the US government hack. It was stealthy, it wasn't detected for many, many months. Who knows maybe even years. And not to be a buzzkill, but the point is, cloud enthusiasm has to be concompetent with security vigilant. Enough preaching, let's wrap up here. As we enter 2020, this year, we said the cloud was going to be the force that drove innovation along with data and AI. And as we look in the rear view mirror and put 2020 behind us, I know many of you want to do that, it was the cloud that enabled businesses to not only continue to operate, but to actually increase productivity. Nonetheless, we still see IT spending declines of four to 5% this year with an expectation of a tepid Q4 relative to the last year. We see Q1 slowly rebounding and kind of a swoosh, let me try that again, recovery in the subsequent quarters with tech spending rebounding in 2021 to a positive three to 5%, let's call it 4%. Now supporting us scenario, the pandemic forced a giant Petri dish for digital. And we see some real successes and learnings that organizations will apply in 2021 to bet on sure things. These are cloud, containers, AI, ML, machine intelligence pieces and automation. For sure, along with upticks for virtually every other sector of technology because spending has been so depressed. The two exceptions are outsourcing and IT consulting and related services which continue to be a drag on overall spending. Priorities must be focused on security and governance and further improvements in applying corporate edicts in a cloud world. We also see new data architectures emerging where domain knowledge becomes central to data platforms. We'll be covering this in more detail on top of the work that we've already done in this area. Now, automation is not only an opportunity, it's become a mandate. Yes, RPA, but also broader automation agendas be on point tools. And importantly, we're not talking about paving the cow path here by automating existing processes. Rather we're talking about rethinking processes across the entire organization for a new digital reality where many of these processes are being invented. The work of Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee on the second machine age. It was pressured back in 2014 and the conclusions they drew, they're becoming increasingly important in the 2020s, meaning that look machines have always replaced humans throughout time. But for the first time in history, it's happening for cognitive functions, and a huge base of workers is going to be, or as being marginalized, unless they're retrained. Education and public policy that supports this transition is critical. And I for one would like to see a much more productive discussion that goes beyond the cult of break up big tech. Rather I'd like to see governments partner with big tech to truly do good and help drive the re-skilling of workers for the digital age. Now cloud remains the underpinning of the digital business mandate, but the path forward isn't really always crystal clear. This is evidenced by the virtual dead heat between those organizations that are consolidating workloads in a cloud workloads versus those that are hedging bets on a multi-cloud strategy. One thing is clear cloud is the linchpin for our growth scenarios and will continue to be the substrate for innovation in the coming decade. Remember, these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen, all you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast, and please subscribe to the series, appreciate that. Check out ETR's website at ETR.plus. We also publish full report every week on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com and get in touch with me at David.vallante, siliconangle.Com, you can DM me at D. Vellante. And please by all means comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCube Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week everybody, Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah, happy Kwanzaa, or happy, whatever holiday you celebrate. Stay safe, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From the CUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from the CUBE in ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Earlier these week, the U S department of justice, along with attorneys general from 11 States filed a long expected antitrust lawsuit, accusing Google of being a monopoly gatekeeper for the internet. The suit draws on section two of the Sherman antitrust act, which makes it illegal to monopolize trade or commerce. Of course, Google is going to fight the lawsuit, but in our view, the company has to make bigger moves to diversify its business and the answer we think lies in the cloud and at the edge. Hello everyone. This is Dave Vellante and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we want to do two things. First we're going to review a little bit of history, according to Dave Vollante of the monopolistic power in the computer industry. And then next, we're going to look into the latest ETR data. And we're going to make the case that Google's response to the DOJ suit should be to double or triple its focus on cloud and edge computing, which we think is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity. So let's start by looking at the history of monopolies in technology. We start with IBM. In 1969 the U S government filed an antitrust lawsuit against Big Blue. At the height of its power. IBM generated about 50% of the revenue and two thirds of the profits for the entire computer industry, think about that. IBM has monopoly on a relative basis, far exceeded that of the virtual Wintel monopoly that defined the 1990s. IBM had 90% of the mainframe market and controlled the protocols to a highly vertically integrated mainframe stack, comprising semiconductors, operating systems, tools, and compatible peripherals like terminal storage and printers. Now the government's lawsuit dragged on for 13 years before it was withdrawn in 1982, IBM at one point had 200 lawyers on the case and it really took a toll on IBM and to placate the government during this time and someone after IBM made concessions such as allowing mainframe plug compatible competitors to access its code, limiting the bundling of application software in fear of more government pressure. Now the biggest mistake IBM made when it came out of antitrust was holding on to its mainframe past. And we saw this in the way it tried to recover from the mistake of handing its monopoly over to Microsoft and Intel. The virtual monopoly. What it did was you may not remember this, but it had OS/2 and Windows and it said to Microsoft, we'll keep OS/2 you take Windows. And the mistake IBM was making with sticking to the PC could be vertically integrated, like the main frame. Now let's fast forward to Microsoft. Microsoft monopoly power was earned in the 1980s and carried into the 1990s. And in 1998 the DOJ filed the lawsuit against Microsoft alleging that the company was illegally thwarting competition, which I argued at the time was the case. Now, ironically, this is the same year that Google was started in a garage. And I'll come back to that in a minute. Now, in the early days of the PC, Microsoft they were not a dominant player in desktop software, you had Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect. You had this company called Harvard Presentation Graphics. These were discreet products that competed very effectively in the market. Now in 1987, Microsoft paid $14 million for PowerPoint. And then in 1990 launched Office, which bundled Spreadsheets, Word Processing, and presentations into a single suite. And it was priced far more attractively than the some of the alternative point products. Now in 1995, Microsoft launched Internet Explorer, and began bundling its browser into windows for free. Windows had a 90% market share. Netscape was the browser leader and a high flying tech company at the time. And the company's management who pooed Microsoft bundling of IE saying, they really weren't concerned because they were moving up the stack into business software, now they later changed that position after realizing the damage that Microsoft bundling would do to its business, but it was too late. So in similar moves of ineptness, Lotus refuse to support Windows at its launch. And instead it wrote software to support the (indistinct). A mini computer that you probably have never even heard of. Novell was a leader in networking software at the time. Anyone remember NetWare. So they responded to Microsoft's move to bundle network services into its operating systems by going on a disastrous buying spree they acquired WordPerfect, Quattro Pro, which was a Spreadsheet and a Unix OS to try to compete with Microsoft, but Microsoft turned the volume and kill them. Now the difference between Microsoft and IBM is that Microsoft didn't build PC hardware rather it partnered with Intel to create a virtual monopoly and the similarities between IBM and Microsoft, however, were that it fought the DOJ hard, Okay, of course. But it made similar mistakes to IBM by hugging on to its PC software legacy. Until the company finally pivoted to the cloud under the leadership of Satya Nadella, that brings us to Google. Google has a 90% share of the internet search market. There's that magic number again. Now IBM couldn't argue that consumers weren't hurt by its tactics. Cause they were IBM was gouging mainframe customers because it could on pricing. Microsoft on the other hand could argue that consumers were actually benefiting from lower prices. Google attorneys are doing what often happens in these cases. First they're arguing that the government's case is deeply flawed. Second, they're saying the government's actions will cause higher prices because they'll have to raise prices on mobile software and hardware, Hmm. Sounds like a little bit of a threat. And of course, it's making the case that many of its services are free. Now what's different from Microsoft is Microsoft was bundling IE, that was a product which was largely considered to be crap, when it first came out, it was inferior. But because of the convenience, most users didn't bother switching. Google on the other hand has a far superior search engine and earned its rightful place at the top by having a far better product than Yahoo or Excite or Infoseek or even Alta Vista, they all wanted to build portals versus having a clean user experience with some non-intrusive of ads on the side. Hmm boy, is that part changed, regardless? What's similar in this case with, as in the case with Microsoft is the DOJ is arguing that Google and Apple are teaming up with each other to dominate the market and create a monopoly. Estimates are that Google pays Apple between eight and $11 billion annually to have its search engine embedded like a tick into Safari and Siri. That's about one third of Google's profits go into Apple. And it's obviously worth it because according to the government's lawsuit, Apple originated search accounts for 50% of Google search volume, that's incredible. Now, does the government have a case here? I don't know. I'm not qualified to give a firm opinion on this and I haven't done enough research yet, but I will say this, even in the case of IBM where the DOJ eventually dropped the lawsuit, if the U S government wants to get you, they usually take more than a pound of flesh, but the DOJ did not suggest any remedies. And the Sherman act is open to wide interpretation so we'll see. What I am suggesting is that Google should not hang too tightly on to it's search and advertising past. Yes, Google gives us amazing free services, but it has every incentive to appropriate our data. And there are innovators out there right now, trying to develop answers to that problem, where the use of blockchain and other technologies can give power back to us users. So if I'm arguing that Google shouldn't like the other great tech monopolies, hang its hat too tightly on the past, what should Google do? Well, the answer is obvious, isn't it? It's cloud and edge computing. Now let me first say that Google understandably promotes G Suite quite heavily as part of its cloud computing story, I get that. But it's time to move on and aggressively push into the areas that matters in cloud core infrastructure, database, machine intelligence containers and of course the edge. Not to say that Google isn't doing this, but there are areas of greatest growth potential that they should focus on. And the ETR data shows it. But let me start with one of our favorite graphics, which shows the breakdown of survey respondents used to derive net score. Net score remembers ETR's quarterly measurement of spending velocity. And here we show the breakdown for Google cloud. The lime green is new adoptions. The forest green is the percentage of customers increasing spending more than 5%. The gray is flat and the pinkish is decreased by 6% or more. And the bright red is we're replacing or swapping out the platform. You subtract the reds from the greens and you get a net score at 43%, which is not off the charts, but it's pretty good. And compares quite favorably to most companies, but not so favorite with AWS, which is at 51% and Microsoft which is at 49%, both AWS and Microsoft red scores are in the single digits. Whereas Google's is at 10%, look all three are down since January, thanks to COVID, but AWS and Microsoft are much larger than Google. And we'd like to see stronger across the board scores from Google. But there's good news in the numbers for Google. Take a look at this chart. It's a breakdown of Google's net scores over three survey snapshots. Now we skip January in this view and we do that to provide a year of a year context for October. But look at the all important database category. We've been watching this very closely, particularly with the snowflake momentum because big query generally is considered the other true cloud native database. And we have a lot of respect for what Google is doing in this area. Look at the areas of strength highlighted in the green. You've got machine intelligence where Google is a leader AI you've got containers. Kubernetes was an open source gift to the industry, and linchpin of Google's cloud and multi-cloud strategy. Google cloud is strong overall. We were surprised to see some deceleration in Google cloud functions at 51% net scores to be on honest with you, because if you look at AWS Lambda and Microsoft Azure functions, they're showing net scores in the mid to high 60s. But we're still elevated for Google. Now. I'm not that worried about steep declines, and Apogee and Looker because after an acquisitions things kind of get spread out around the ETR taxonomy so don't be too concerned about that. But as I said earlier, G Suite may just not that compelling relative to the opportunity in other areas. Now I won't show the data, but Google cloud is showing good momentum across almost all interest industries and sectors with the exception of consulting and small business, which is understandable, but notable deceleration in healthcare, which is a bit of a concern. Now I want to share some customer anecdotes about Google. These comments come from an ETR Venn round table. The first comment comes from an architect who says that "it's an advantage that Google is "not entrenched in the enterprise." Hmm. I'm not sure I agree with that, but anyway, I do take stock in what this person is saying about Microsoft trying to lure people away from AWS. And this person is right that Google essentially is exposed its internal cloud to the world and has ways to go, which is why I don't agree with the first statement. I think Google still has to figure out the enterprise. Now the second comment here underscores a point that we made earlier about big query customers really like the out of the box machine learning capabilities, it's quite compelling. Okay. Let's look at some of the data that we shared previously, we'll update this chart once the company's all report earnings, but here's our most recent take on the big three cloud vendors market performance. The key point here is that our data and the ETR data reflects Google's commentary in its earning statements. And the GCP is growing much faster than its overall cloud business, which includes things that are not apples to apples with AWS the same thing is true with Azure. Remember AWS is the only company that provides clear data on its cloud business. Whereas the others will make comments, but not share the data explicitly. So these are estimates based on those comments. And we also use, as I say, the ETR survey data and our own intelligence. Now, as one of the practitioners said, Google has a long ways to go as buddy an eighth of the size of AWS and about a fifth of the size of Azure. And although it's growing faster at this size, we feel that its growth should be even higher, but COVID is clear a factor here so we have to take that into consideration. Now I want to close by coming back to antitrust. Google spends a lot on R&D, these are quick estimates but let me give you some context. Google shells out about $26 billion annually on research and development. That's about 16% of revenue. Apple spends less about 16 billion, which is about 6% of revenue, Amazon 23 billion about 8% of the top line, Microsoft 19 billion or 13% of revenue and Facebook 14 billion or 20% of revenue, wow. So Google for sure spends on innovation. And I'm not even including CapEx in any of these numbers and the hype guys as you know, spend tons on CapEx building data centers. So I'm not saying Google cheaping out, they're not. And I got plenty of cash in there balance sheet. They got to run 120 billion. So I can't criticize they're roughly $9 billion in stock buybacks the way I often point fingers at what I consider IBM's overly wall street friendly use of cash, but I will say this and it was Jeff Hammerbacher, who I spoke with on the Cube in the early part of last decade at a dupe world, who said "the best minds of my generation are spending there time, "trying to figure out how to get people to click on ads." And frankly, that's where much of Google's R&D budget goes. And again, I'm not saying Google doesn't spend on cloud computing. It does, but I'm going to make a prediction. The post cookie apocalypse is coming soon, it may be here. iOS 14 makes you opt in to find out everything about you. This is why it's such a threat to Google. The days when Google was able to be the keeper of all of our data and to house it and to do whatever it likes with that data that ended with GDPR. And that was just the beginning of the end. This decade is going to see massive changes in public policy that will directly affect Google and other consumer facing technology companies. So my premise is that Google needs to step up its game and enterprise cloud and the edge much more than it's doing today. And I like what Thomas Kurian is doing, but Google's undervalued relative to some of the other big tech names. And I think it should tell wall street that our future is in enterprise cloud and edge computing. And we're going to take a hit to our profitability and go big in those areas. And I would suggest a few things, first ramp up R&D spending and acquisitions even more. Go on a mission to create cloud native fabric across all on-prem and the edge multicloud. Yes, I know this is your strategy, but step it up even more forget satisfying investors. You're getting dinged in the market anyway. So now's the time the moon wall street and attack the opportunity unless you don't see it, but it's staring you right in the face. Second, get way more cozy with the enterprise players that are scared to death of the cloud generally. And they're afraid of AWS in particular, spend the cash and go way, way deeper with the big tech players who have built the past IBM, Dell, HPE, Cisco, Oracle, SAP, and all the others. Those companies that have the go to market shops to help you win the day in enterprise cloud. Now, I know you partner with these companies already, but partner deeper identify game-changing innovations that you can co-create with these companies and fund it with your cash hoard. I'm essentially saying, do what you do with Apple. And instead of sucking up all our data and getting us to click on ads, solve really deep problems in the enterprise and the edge. It's all about actually building an on-prem to cloud across cloud, to the edge fabric and really making that a unified experience. And there's a data angle too, which I'll talk about now, the data collection methods that you've used on consumers, it's incredibly powerful if applied responsibly and correctly for IOT and edge computing. And I don't mean to trivialize the complexity at the edge. There really isn't one edge it's Telcos and factories and banks and cars. And I know you're in all these places Google because of Android, but there's a new wave of data coming from machines and cars. And it's going to dwarf people's clicks and believe me, Tesla wants to own its own data and Google needs to put forth a strategy that's a win-win. And so far you haven't done that because your head is an advertising. Get your heads out of your ads and cut partners in on the deal. Next, double down on your open source commitment. Kubernetes showed the power that you have in the industry. Ecosystems are going to be the linchpin of innovation over the next decade and transcend products and platforms use your money, your technology, and your position in the marketplace to create the next generation of technology leveraging the power of the ecosystem. Now I know Google is going to say, we agree, this is exactly what we're doing, but I'm skeptical. Now I think you see either the cloud is a tiny little piece of your business. You have to do with Satya Nadella did and completely pivot to the new opportunity, make cloud and the edge your mission bite the bullet with wall street and go dominate a multi-trillion dollar industry. Okay, well there you have it. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts, so please subscribe wherever you listen. I publish weekly on Wikibond.com and Siliconangle.com and I post on LinkedIn each week as well. So please comment or DM me @DVollante, or you can email me @David.Vollante @Siliconangle.com. And don't forget to check out etr.plus that's where all the survey action is. This is Dave Vollante for the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching everybody be well. And we'll see you next. (upbeat instrumental)

(upbeat music) >> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, connecting with thought leaders all around the world, this is a Cube Conversation. >> As we've been reporting, the COVID-19 pandemic has created a bifurcated IT spending picture. And over the last several weeks, we've reported both in the macro and even some come at it from a vendor and a sector view. I mean, for example, we've reported on some of the companies that have really continued to thrive, we look at the NASDAQ and its near a toll-time hard. Companies like Okta and CrowdStrike, we've reported on Snowflake, UiPath. The sectors, RPA, some of the analytic databases around AI, maybe even to a lesser extent Cloud but still has a lot tailwinds relative to some of those on-prem infrastructure plays. Even companies like Cisco, bifurcated in and of themselves, where you see this more rocky side of the house doing quite well. The work-from-home stuff but maybe some of the traditional networking not as much. Well, now what if you flip that to really try to understand what's going on with the shape of the recovery which is the main narrative right now. Is it a V shape? Is it a U shape? What do people expect? And now to understand that, you really have to look at different industries because different industries are going to come back at a different pace. With me again is Sagar Kadakia, who's the Director of Research at ETR. Sagar, you guys are all over this, as usual timely information, it's great to see you again. Hope all is well in New York City. >> Thanks so much David, it's a pleasure to be back on again. >> Yeah, so where are we in the cycle? You've done a great job and very timely, ETR was the first to really put out data on the Covid impact with the server that ran from mid March to mid April. And now everybody's attention Sagar, is focused on, okay, we've started to come back, stores are starting to open, people are beginning to go out again and everybody wants to know what the shape of the recovery looks like. So, where are we actually in that research cycle for you guys? >> Yeah, no problem. So, like you said, in that kind of March, April timeframe, we really want to go out there and get an idea of what are going to be the budget impacts as it relates to IT because of COVID-19, right? So, we kind of ended off there around a decline of 5%. And coming into the year, the consensus was a growth of 4% or 5%, right? So, we saw about a 900 or 1000 base point swing, to the negative side. And then (murmurs) topic we covered in March and April were which sectors of vendors were going to benefit as a result of work-from-home. And so, now as we kind of fast forward to the research cycle as we kind of go more into May and into the summer, rather than asking those exact same question again, because it's just been maybe 40 or 50 days. We really want to (murmurs) on the recovery type as well as well as kind of more emerging private vendors, right? We want it to understand what's going to be the impact on these vendors that typically rely on larger conferences, more in person meetings, because these are younger technologies. There's not a lot of information about them. And so, last Thursday we launched our biannual emerging technology study. It covers roughly 300 private emerging technologies across maybe 60 sectors of technology. And in tandem, we've launched a COVID Flash Poll, right? What we want to do was kind of twofold. One really understand from CIOs the recovery type they had in mind, as well as if they were seeing any kind of permanent changes in their IT, stacks IT spend because of COVID-19. And so, if we kind of look at the first chart here, and kind of get more into that first question around recovery type, what we asked CIOs in this kind of COVID Flash Poll, again, we did it last Thursday was, what type of recovery are you expecting? Is it V-shaped so kind of of a brief decline, maybe 1/4, and then you're going to start seeing growth into 2 each 20. Is it U-shaped? So two to 3/4 of a decline or deceleration revenue, and you're kind of forecasting that growth in revenue as an organization to come back in 2021. Is it L-shaped, right? So, maybe three, four or 5/4 of a decline or deceleration. And very minimal to moderate growth or none of the above, your organization is actually benefiting from COVID-19, as we've seen some many reports. So, those are kind of the options that we gave CIOs and you kind of see them at first chart here. >> Well, interesting. And this is a survey, a flash of survey, 700 CIOs or approximately. And the interesting thing I really want to point out here is, the COVID pandemic, it didn't suppress all companies, and the return is it's not going to be a rising tide that lifts all ships. You really got to do your research. You have to understand the different sectors, really try to peel back the onion skin and understand why there are certain momentum, how certain organizations are accommodating the work from home. We heard several weeks ago, how there's a major change in networking mindsets we're talking about how security is changing. We're going to talk about some of the permanents, but it's really, really important to try to understand these different trends by different industries, which we're going to talk about in a minute. But if you take a look at this slide, I mean, obviously most people expect this U-shape decline. I mean, U-shape recovery rather. So it's two or 3/4 followed by some growth next year. But as we'll see, some of these industries are going to really go deeper with an L-shape recovery. And then it's really interesting that a pretty large and substantial portion see this as a tailwind, presumably those with strong SAS models, annual recurring revenue models, your thoughts? >> If we kind of start on this kind of aggregate chart, you're looking at about 44% of CEO's anticipate a U-shaped recovery, right? That's the largest bucket. Then you can see another 15% anticipate an L-shape recovery 14 on the V-shaped, and then 16% to your point that are kind of seeing this tailwind. But if we kind of focus on that largest bucket that U-shaped, one of the things to remember and again, when we asked this to CIOs within this kind of COVID Flash Poll, we also asked, can you give us some commentary? And so, one of the things that, or one of the themes that are kind of coming along with this U-shape recovery is CIOs are cautiously optimistic about this U-shape recovery. They believe that they can get back onto a growth cycle, into 2021, as long as there's a vaccine available. We don't go into a second wave of lockdowns. Economic activity picks up, a lot of the government actions become effective. So there are some kind of let's call it qualifiers, with this bucket of CIOs that are anticipating a U-shape recovery. What they're saying is that, "look, we are expecting these things to happen, "we're not expecting a lockdown, "we are expecting a vaccine. "And if that takes place, "then we do expect an uptake in growth, "or going back to kind of pre COVID levels in 2021." But I think it's fair to assume that if one or more of these are ups and things do get worse as all these States are opening up, maybe the recovery cycle gets pushed along. So kind of at the aggregate, this is where we are right now. >> Yeah. So as I was saying, you really have to understand the different, not only different sectors not only the different vendors, but you can really get to look into the industries, and then even within industries. So if we pull up the next chart, we have the industry sort of break down, and sort of the responses by the industry's V-shape, U-shape or L-shape. I had a conversation with a CIO of a major resort, just the other day. And even he was saying, well, it was actually, I'll tell you it was Wyndham Resorts, public company. I mean, and obviously that business got crushed. They had their earnings call the other day. They talked about how they cut their capex in half. But the stock, Sagar, since the March loss is more than doubled. >> Yeah. >> It was just amazing. And now, but even there, within that sector, they're appealing that on you are doing well, certain parts are going to come back sooner, certain parts are going to take longer, depending on, what type of resort, what type of hotel. So, it really is a complicated situation. So, take us through what you're seeing by industry. >> Yeah, sure. So let's start with kind of the IT-Telco, retail, consumer space. Dave to your point, there's going to be a tremendous amount of bifurcation within both of those verticals. Look, if we start on the IT-Telco side, you're seeing a very large bucket of individuals, right over 20%? That indicated they're seeing a tailwind or additional revenue because of COVID-19 and Dave, we spoke about this all the way back in March, right? All these work from home vendors. CIOs were doubling down on Cloud and SAS and we've seen how some of these vendors have reported in April, with very good reports, all the major Cloud vendors, right? Like Select Security vendors. And so, that's why you're seeing on the kind of Telco side, definitely more positivity, right? As you relates to recovery type, right? Some of them are not even going through recovery. They're seeing an acceleration, same thing on the retail consumer side. You're seeing another large bucket of people who are indicating, "look, we've benefited." And again, there's going to be a lot of bifurcation, there's been a lot of retail consumers. You just mentioned with the hotel lines, that are definitely hurting. But if you have a good online presence as a retailer, and you had essential goods or groceries, you benefited. And those are the organizations that we're seeing really indicate that they saw an acceleration due to COVID-19. So, I thought those two verticals between kind of the IT and retail side, there was a big bucket of people who indicated positivity. So I thought that was kind of the first kind of as we talked about kind of feeling this onion back. That was really interesting. >> Tech continues to power on, and I think a lot of people try, I think somebody was saying that the record time in which we've developed a vaccine previously was like mumps or something. I mean, it was just like years. But now today, 2020, we've got AI, we've got all this data, you've got these great companies all working on this. And so, wow, if we can compress that, that's going to change the equation. A couple of other things Sagar that jump out at me here in this chart that I want to ask you about. I mean, the education, the colleges, are really kind of freaking out right now, some are coming back. I know, like for instance, my daughter at University of Arizona, they're coming back in the fall indefinitely, others are saying, no. You can clearly see the airlines and transportation, has the biggest sort of L-shape, which is the most negative. I'm sure restaurants and hospitality are kind of similar. And then you see energy which got crushed. We had oil (laughs) negative people paying it, big barrels of oil. But now look at that, expectation of a pretty strong, U-shape recovery as people start driving again, and the economy picks up. So, maybe you could give us some thoughts on some of those sort of outliers. >> Yeah. So I kind of bucket the next two outliers as from an L-shaped and a U-shaped. So on the L-shaped side, like you said, education airlines, transportation, and probably to a little bit lesser extent, industrials materials, manufacturing services consulting. These verticals are indicating the highest percentages from an L-shaped recovery, right? So, three plus 1/4 of revenue declines in deceleration, followed by kind of minimal to moderate growth. And look, there's no surprise here. Those are the verticals that have been impacted the most, by less demand from consumers and businesses. And then as you mentioned on the energy utility side, and then I would probably bucket maybe healthcare, pharma, those have some of the largest, percentages of U-shaped recovery. And it's funny, like I read a lot of commentary from some of the energy and the healthcare CIOs, and they were saying they were very optimistic (laughs) about a U-shaped type of recovery. And so it kind of, maybe with those two issues that we could even kind of lump them into, probably to a lesser extent, but you could probably lump it into the prior one with the airlines and the education and services consulting, and IMM, where these are definitely the verticals that are going to see the longest, longest recoveries. And it's probably a little bit more uniform, versus what we've kind of talked about a few minutes ago with IT and retail consumer where it's definitely very bifurcated. There's definitely winners and losers there. >> Yeah. And again, it's a very complicated situation. A lot of people that I've talked to are saying, "look, we really don't have a clear picture, "that's why all these companies are not giving guidance." Many people, however, are optimistic only for a vaccine, but also their thinking is young people with disposable income, they're going to kind of say,"Damn the torpedoes, "I'm not really going to be exposed." >> And they could come back much stronger, there seems to be pent up demand for some of the things like elective surgery, or even some other sort of more important, healthcare needs. So, that obviously could be a snapback. So, obviously we're really closely looking at this, one thing though is certain, is that people are expecting a permanent change, and you've got data that really shows that on the next chart. >> That's right. So, one of the last questions that we ask kind of this quick COVID Flash Poll was, do you anticipate permanent changes to your kind of IT stack, IT spend, based on the last few months? As everyone has been working remotely, and rarely do you see results point this much in one direction, but 92% of CIOs and kind of high level IT end users indicated yes, there are all going to be permanent changes. And one of the things we talked about in March, and look, we were really the first ones, in our discussion, where we were talking about work from home spend, kind of negating or bouncing out all these declines, right? We were saying, look, yes, we are seeing a lot of budgets come down, but surprisingly, we're seeing 20,30% of organizations accelerate spend. And even the ones that are spending less, even them, some of their budgets are kind of being negated by this work from home spend, right? When you think about collaboration tools and additional VPN and networking bandwidth, and laptops and then security, all that stuff. CIOs now continue to spend on, because what CIOs now understand is productivity has remained at very high levels, right? In March CIOs were very concerned with the catastrophe and productivity that has not come true. So on the margin CIOs and organizations are probably much more positive on that front. And so now, because there is no vaccine, where we know CIOs and just in general, the population, we don't know when one is coming. And so remote work seems to be the new norm moving forward, especially that productivity levels are pretty good with people working from home. So, from that perspective, everything that looked like it was maybe going to be temporary, just for the next few months, as people work from home, that's how organizations are now moving forward. >> Well, and we saw Twitter, basically said, "we're going to make work from home permanent." That's probably because their CEO wants to live in Africa. Google, I think, is going to the end of the year. >> I think many companies are going to look at a hybrid, and give employees a choice, say, "look, if you want to work from home "and you can be productive, you get your stuff done, we're cool with that." I think the other point is, everybody talks about these digital transformations leading into COVID. I got to tell you, I think a lot of companies were sort of complacent. They talk the talk, but they weren't walking the walk, meaning they really weren't becoming digital businesses. They really weren't putting data at the core. And I think now it's really becoming an imperative. And there's no question that what we've been talking about and forecasting has been pulled forward, and you're either going to have to step up your digital game or you're going to be in big trouble. And the other thing I'm really interested in is will companies sub-optimize profitability in the near term, in order to put better business resiliency in place, and better flexibility, will they make those investments? And I think if they do, longer term, they're going to be in better shape. If they don't, they could maybe be okay in the near term, but I'm going to put up a caution sign, although the longer term. >> Now look, I think everything that's been done in the last few months, in terms of having those continuation plans, due to pandemics and all that stuff, look, you got to have that in your playbook, right? And so to your point, this is where CIOs are going and if you're not transforming yourself or you didn't before, lesson learned, because now you're probably having to move twice as fast to support all your employees. So I think this pandemic really kind of sped up digital transformation initiatives, which is why, you're seeing some companies, SAS and Cloud related companies, with very good earnings reports that are guiding well. And then you're seeing other companies that are pulling their guidance because of uncertainty, but it's likely more on the side if they're just not seeing the same levels of spend, because if they haven't oriented themselves, on that digital transformation side. So I think events like this, they typically showcase winners and losers than when things are going well. and everything's kind of going up. >> Well, I think that too, there's a big discussion around is the S&P over valued right now. I won't make that call, but I will say this, that there's a lot of data out there. There's data in earnings reports, there's data about this pandemic, which it continues to change. Maybe not so much daily, but we're getting new information, multiple times a week. So you got to look to that data. You got to make your call, pick your spots, earlier you talk about a stock pickers market. I think it's very much true here. There are some going to be really strong companies. emerging out of this, don't gamble but do your research. And I think you'll find some gems out there, maybe Warren buffet can't find them okay. (laughs) But the guys at main street. I'm optimistic, I wonder how you feel about the recovery. I think I maybe tainted by tech. (laughs). I'm very much concerned about certain industries, but I think the tech industry, which is our business's, going to come out of this pretty strong? >> Yeah. Look, the one thing we should have stated this earlier, the majority of organizations are not expecting a V-shaped recovery. And yet I still think there's part of the consensus is expecting a V-shaped recovery. You can see as we demonstrate in some of the earlier charts, That U-shaped, there is some cautious optimism around there, almost the majority of organizations are expecting a U-shape recovery. And even then, as we mentioned, right? That U-shape, there is some cautious optimism around there, and I have it, you probably have it where. Yes, if everything goes well, it looks like 2021 we can really get back on track. But there's so much unknown. And so yes, that does give I think everyone pause when it comes from an investment perspective, and even just bringing on technologies. into your organization, right? Which ones are going to work, which ones aren't? So, I'm definitely on the boat of, this is a more U-shaped in a V-shape recovery. I think the data backs that up. I think when it comes to Cloud and SAS players, those areas, and I think you've seen this on the investment side, a lot of money has come out of all these other sectors that we mentioned that are having these L-shaped recoveries. A lot of it has gone into the text-based. I imagine that will continue. And so that might be kind of, it's tough to sometimes balance what's going on, on the investment that stock market side, with how organizations are recovering. I think people are really looking out into two, 3/4 and saying, look to your point where you said that earlier, is there a lot of that pent up demand, are things going to get right back to normal? Because I think a lot of people are anticipating that. And if we don't see that, I think the next time we do some of these kind of COVID Flash Polls I'm interested to see whether or not, maybe towards the end of the summer, these recovery cycles are actually longer because maybe we didn't see some of that stuff. So there's still a lot of unknowns. But what we do know right now is it's not a V-shaped recovery. >> I agree, especially on the unknowns, there's monetary policy, there's fiscal policy, there's an election coming up. >> That's fine. >> There's escalating tensions with China. There's your thoughts on the efficacy of the vaccine? what about therapeutics? Do people who've had this get immunity? How many people actually have it? What about testing? So the point I'm making here is it's very, very important that you update your forecast regularly That's why it's so great to have this partnership with you guys, because you're constantly updating the numbers. It's not just a one shot deal. So Sagar, thanks so much for coming on. I'm looking forward to having you on in the coming weeks. Really appreciate it. >> Absolutely. Yeah, we'll really start kind of digging into how a lot of these emerging technologies are fairing because of COVID-19. So, I'm actually interested to start digging through the data myself. So yeah, we'll do some reporting in the coming weeks about that as well. >> Well, thanks everybody for watching this episode of theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. I'm Dave Vellante for Sagar Kadakia, check out etr.plus, that's where all the ETR data lives, I publish weekly on wikibond.com and siliconangle.com. And you can reach me @dvellante. We'll see you next time. (gentle music).

>> Automation is being viewed as increasingly strategic by business executives. A prominent example can be seen in the form of robotic process automation, RPA. Despite the pandemic, RPA continues to show strong growth in the market, and that's really confirmed in the survey data from our partner, ETR. Hi everybody, this is Dave Vellante, and welcome to this special presentation from the CUBE team with support from UI Path. Earlier this month UI Path had a big launch event and today we're going to provide some perspective and analysis of the market. We're also going to interview some of the UI Path execs to get a better understanding of the market trends and the competitive environment. Let me lay out the program. It's going to start with my independent, unsponsored breaking analysis segment. This is pure editorial. In this first video we're going to discuss some of the RPA challenges and early issues that customers had with RPA. And we're going to update you on the market, we're going to look at the latest ETR spending data. We have some comments on the competition. And we're particularly going to focus on of course, UI path, but also automation anywhere, Blue Prism, and we even have some thoughts on Pega Systems. Now you can go to wikibond.com and read the full analysis of that breaking analysis. It's also on siliconangle.com if you really want more details on this data. After that, we have four UI Path execs that we interview including the CMO, Bobby Patrick, Ted Cumert their new head of products. He's going to talk to us about software development and platform architectures. And then we also interview Terek Madcore about RPA in the cloud. And then we're going to close with Brandon Knott. And I'm going to push Brandon a little bit on how much of that UI Path vision, i/e a robot for every person. How much of that is real, how much of that is marketing hype, and what can we expect going forward in terms of that adoption? So thanks for watching everybody. I hope you enjoy the program.

>> Narrator: From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, connecting with thought leaders all around the world, this is theCUBE conversation. >> Hi everybody, this is Dave Vellante and welcome to this week's CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're going to bring in Sagar Kadakia who's the Director of Research at ETR. He's been away for the last couple of weeks, he's really digging into the latest data set, ETR of course it was in it's quiet period. And today, what we want to do is give you three of the macro takeaways from that last two-week analysis and drill into to some of the sectors. So Sagar, that's for coming on, great to see you again. Let's get right into it. >> Let's do it, thanks for having me. >> You've been crazy busy, we started the year at a plus 4%, consensus IT spend. We reported for several weeks and ended up at minus 4%. We're now at minus 5%, after you've gone through and done some additional analysis. So bring us up to date the IT spend projection. >> Yeah no problem, and that's our first macro takeaway, is we're seeing declines in IT budget, a decline of 5%. And remember, coming into the year as you mentioned, consensus assessments were right around that 4% number. And so we've seen this kind of 900 basis point shift downward so that's kind of where we are today, if we kind of look at that chart that we've been tracking for the last few weeks. And then for those that have seen this chart before, you've kind of seen where we've been kind of going the last two, three weeks. And for those that haven't seen the chart, I'll kind of go through it now. So, as many of you know, kind of launched its COVID-19 drill down survey to measure the impact that the virus was going to have on total spend this year and so we kind of launched that drill down on March 11th and so if you kind of look at that blue line there, what you're looking at, is we asked individuals, estimate what percentage impact you think the virus is going to have on your budget versus your original expectations. And since we launched this on March 11th, on that blue line that you're looking at, we got a lot of positivity in the beginning. And so if you look at the blue line all the way through, you follow that, you get about zero percent growth. Now the issue is, as I just mentioned is, we launched on the 11th, and there wasn't a tremendous amount of information available as to how severe the virus was, and so we kind of did this in Venn analysis and we talked about this last time, on the last breaking analysis, where it's probably more appropriate to look at a start date closer to 3/17 or 3/23 when the market really understood the severity of COVID-19. NYC became the epicenter. And if we look at just those customers who indicated a spend impact after that date, you can see it's coming out to about four or 5% decline. And so that's kind of one of our big macro takeaways, and the other thing on this chart, kind of focus on is, and even though we're not looking at, some of the vendors here, is when you think about declines, it's not across the full IT stack, and I think that's really important for the audience to understand. We're seeing focused declines among on-prem legacy pure plays. You're still seeing CIO spend on cloud and SaaS. In fact, they're doubling down there. And so when you kind of think about how things are going to shape up the next three, six, nine months, there's going to be a lot of bifurcation. And we think cloud and SaaS are going to be well positioned with a lot of legacy and on-prem. That's where you're going to see a majority of those declines that you're seeing here kind of play out. >> I've made the case, statement many times that cloud is good, or downturns have been to cloud. You saw this in 2008, 2009 with the shift from CapEx to OpEx. We came out of 2009 into the decade of cloud. And very clearly we're seeing some similar things here as people shift to that work-from-home. We had one CIO on the recent Venns that I want to just delete my data centers. Unfortunately, he's not going to be able to do that overnight, but I think, as Eric Bradley pointed out last week, a lot of customers who weren't even thinking about cloud, or really were sort of reticent to go all in, really have flipped and changed their tune. Let's talk about some of the industries that are impacted by this COVID-19 and the stay-at-home. This slide really kind of underscores that. Why don't you take us through it? >> Yeah, no problem. So on the last slide, you were looking at kind of our COVID-19 drill-down study. On this slide, what we're now going to focus on is a study that we did in tandem, which is called our Technology Spending Intentions Survey. And specifically we conducted this in April. What we did is we asked CIOs to update their 2020 spending intentions versus how they spent in '19. So this survey was originally posed in January and then we're essentially asking for a three-month update now. So we're trying to get an understanding of how much has changed in the last three months because of COVID-19. And when we asked these CIOs, we give them essentially a list of 400 vendors. And they're able to then indicate which ones they're flattening on, decreasing on, maybe accelerating on. And so what you're looking at here is we've aggregated that data by industry. And if you look at the X-axis here, you're going to look at spend intensity versus three months ago. And the Y-axis will be spend intensity versus a year ago. And so what you're seeing here is over the last three months, look at how much verticals, like retail/consumer, airlines, delivery services, financials/insurance, IT/TelCo, services/consulting. Those have really seen some of the largest pullbacks in spend versus three months ago. And those are also some of the industries that have indicated the largest pullback in demand from consumers and businesses. And so this is where we think a lot of the declines that we showed you earlier really kind of focus on some of these verticals. And that's how, when you kind of think about which organization are going to be hurt, which ones might see the most impact, three, six months from now, this is a really good chart to view. >> Yeah, a couple of points I would make on this data. Retail and consumer, again, even that's bifurcated. Obviously the physical stores getting crushed. You see Amazon now trading at all-time highs. Target announced today, I think they said a 200% increase in online shopping, which, of course, is fulfilled. 85% of Target's demand is fulfilled by their stores. So that's kind of mixed. You're going to see an accelerated move toward digital transformation there. Airlines, it's really unclear what's going to happen there. IT/TelCo, on one of the last Venns we talked about MPLS, people trying to get off of MPLS, really moving toward a SD-WAN. Healthcare, pharma, healthcare doesn't have time to do anything right now. No time to take a breather. Financials is interesting. I mean, they're down right now, but they still have a lot of cash. Liquidity is good. And then energy, I mean oil, I've just never seen anything like it. We're concerned obviously about credit risk there and oil companies being able to pay off their debts. So it's really not a pretty picture, is it? >> Yeah, and if focus on energy, even though you're not seeing a huge pullback versus three months ago in energy, it's really important to understand when we did this survey in January, energy was all the way on the left side of that chart. And so it already looked really bad coming into the year. So it got worse. But because of the severity versus last year, like they're just not seeing that much more of a negative impact now. This was before, this survey closed before everything happened the last few days with oil prices. So it is very possible that that data is going to get worse. And we'll know if it gets really-- >> We're not laughing a lot these days, but if you haven't filled up your car in a while, I mean it's, Anyway, let's go into the security piece. We talked about, you guys were really the first to report this work-from-home pivot. Others have sort of more recently coming to that conclusion. And it wasn't just Zoom and WebEx and video collaboration, Teams, et cetera. It really was all kinds of infrastructure, including security. So we can bring up the next chart, guys. Let's sort of get into this. We're going to talk about the sector and some of the vendors in here. Let's go. >> Yeah, no problem, so if we kind of step away from the macro and really start getting into the sectors and vendors in here. If we start with security, what we're really saying is that, look, a remote workforce is really kind of revealing best-in-breed. And we think it's going to lead to the permanent changes. So what you're looking at here is these are the net scores for each individual vendor currently versus three months ago as well as a year ago levels. The yellow bars will be what's currently. And the way to think about net score is just kind of spend intensity. And so the higher your net score, the more spend intensity, the more spend velocity you're seeing from enterprise customers. And what we're really seeing here, if you kind of look at the vendors on the left, you're seeing a lot of acceleration among secure web gateway end point, mobile security, cloud SaaS application security, identity, and these make sense. As we mentioned earlier, as you really accelerate your cloud and SaaS spend, you're going to want to use vendors that best protect those areas. And so if you look to the left here, Okta and Zscaler, Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, some of these really look best positioned moving forward. Palo Alto looks good longer term. Splunk at this point also looked good longer term. And then the other thing to kind of hit on here is the other side in terms of, we talked about the bifurcation that we expect. We're seeing significant declines in net scores among a lot of these legacy vendors. Check points come down quite a bit. Juniper, Trend Micro, Broadcom, Barracuda Networks, SonicWALL, and so you can see the disparity here. It's pretty clear on the image. But we think there's some pretty clear winners and losers here. And I think we may see permanent changes moving forward. >> Yeah, so Twistlock, of course, is now owned by Palo Alto. CrowdStrike, they're a hot company in the sector. Okta, I have the Chief Product Officer coming on shortly here for part of my CXO series. We've talked about Palo Alto and how they sort of fell behind a little bit in the cloud. But you talk to customers, they really see Palo Alto as in the mix. Zscaler came up in the Venn as, to your point, securing gateways and doing a really good job in that space. And so I think the fragmentation, the fragmentation probably continues, but there's also bifurcation, as you pointed out. Let's talk about cloud. As you've said and I said, downturns have been good to cloud. People are obviously looking more toward cloud, whether it's SaaS or cloud type of consumption. Let's bring up the next slide, which looks at the big three, Azure, AWS, and GCP. First of all, all three have very strong net scores. Up in the 60% plus range. But you have Azure pulling away. I'd love to hear your thoughts on that. >> Yeah, that's right, and we've kind of been using this analogy of kind of a horse race. Just kind of as context, coming into January you see really GCP accelerating. And so one of the things we said in January was it's becoming more of a three-horse race. Even though GCP doesn't have the same type of market share as the other two, you are seeing the spend intensity increase. And now what you're seeing is Azure pulling away a little bit because of, we think, COVID-19. When you look at Azure's data set, it really looks robust and healthy across all verticals, across most regions. And that is what you're seeing here where it's continuing to kind of accelerate. It looks good. AWS, GCP, it also looks good here, but you're not seeing the same uniform strength. There's a couple verticals for AWS where we're seeing a little bit of a pullback in spend, like retail and industrials. For GCP we're seeing a pullback in mid-size and small enterprises. So that's causing a couple of cracks here and there. Even though they look overall healthy, but we did want to kind of indicate here on cloud where, look one vendor looks like they're pulling away when it comes to spend velocity. >> It's going to be interesting to see. I mean, we reported on the sort of deltas between Azure and AWS and the cloud, the quality of the cloud. I think we're going to carefully watch the quarterly reports. You always have to kind of squint through the Azure numbers to see what's in there. But there's no question that Microsoft, across the board, is really very, very strong. All right, let's talk about collaboration, productivity, video conferencing. I mean, we've certainly seen upticks. But as shown on this slide, you guys, if you could bring the next slide up. You know, it's not all rosy. Talk about this a little bit. >> Yeah, I think, look, there's been a lot of coverage around which vendors look best. And so I kind of want to take the opposite view on this chart for the audience, and say hey look, which vendors are not benefiting? And this is kind of like a hodgepodge sector of productivity and collaboration, video conferencing. What we're saying is it's now of never, so to speak. And you're looking at replacement rates. So if you look at, if you see something on this chart that says 20% replacement, that means one out of five customers indicated for that vendor in our survey, indicated a replacement for them, which is not good. And so you're seeing vendors here like Dropbox, Box and Slack having elevated or accelerating replacement levels. And these vendors, pitch themselves as collaboration tools. And if they're not doing well now and they're seeing elevated replacements, especially as everyone is working from home, that doesn't bode well for the future. >> I think people who know me know I'm not a huge fan of Box and Slack. They drive me crazy. And so this is interesting to see. I mean, we're a Zoom shop, so obviously you Zoom, you like Zoom. I had my first experience very recently with Microsoft teams. I was quite impressed. I thought it was easy to use. Skype, hell was just terrible. And so, much, much improved. Very interesting cut on that one. So again, it's a bifurcated story. Let's drill into teams a little bit. Guys, have you bring up the next slide, Movements reporting. And you guys are really again, first on this, how strong Microsoft is across the board. But really going after it and collaboration. >> On that previous slide you saw that, Dropbox and Slack, we're all seeing replacements. So again, a lot of customers like where was all that spend going? Well, it's going to Microsoft Teams. It's going to One Drive. This is a Slack drilled out, or sorry, a Slack and teams drill down. That we did, earlier this year. And what we're trying to do is measure, how these products were going to do in the next 12 months. And so what you're looking at here is Fortune 500 organizations. What we did is we asked them how much of your organization, is using Microsoft Teams today. What percentage of your organization is going to be using Microsoft Teams 12 months from now? That's going to be in the yellow bars. And you can see the big upticks in 12 months. And we took some mid point averages. Look at how much Microsoft Teams is going to grow, within Fortune 500 accounts in the next 12 months. And if we look at Slack on the next slide, you're really now seeing the exact opposite. Same question, how many folks in your Fortune 500 organization are using Slack today? And what does that look like in 12 months? And the mid point average is actually coming down. And so, it's like Slack is a seat-based model. And so when you have less users that's going to generate less revenue. And so again, this is amongst the existing Fortune 500 customers. This doesn't include new Fortune 500, but this spells problems for Slack, when you kind of think about the next six to 12 months ahead. >> Well it's one thing if you're competing with Microsoft and your AWS. I've not really not worried about AWS, Microsoft, take a note AWS. If you're one of these collaboration platforms, Microsoft, we've seen over the years, first of all, they got great developer affinity. They know how to bundle different products together. Now they got the cloud working so they got their flywheel effect in the cloud. There's just not a ton of room. The thing is they have such a huge software estate, such a giant customer install base and it's just makes it easy for them. The products are good enough or in some cases really good. So that's going to be something to watch, because there's a lot of high valuations going on right now in their collaboration space. >> That's right. And I think, it really hits on the previous slide, or the previous slides on collaboration that we saw, was when you think again about the declines, a lot of that is impacting some of these pure plays. So in security you saw a lot of the legacy names getting in. On the collaboration side, you saw a lot of these pure plays your getting in. And so this is kind of, again when you think about where budgets are going and which vendors are being impacted, it's really concentrated into some specific areas. >> So now, one of the hardest hit areas, and you guys reported on this earlier, was the IT consulting and outsourcing IT. You guys have you bring up that the chart, it's pretty ugly. Maybe you can explain what you're seeing here and why you think that is. >> Yeah, no problem. So again, this is from our technology spending intention survey. We're measuring spend velocity here. Spend intensity, and you can see across, these are just a handful of IT consulting firms. If you look at the blue bars to the yellow bar. So the blue bar is, 2020 spending intent that we captured in January and now we're asking for updated 2020 spending intentions. You can see the deceleration in just the last three months. If you look at our COVID-19 drill down side that we conducted, one of the questions in there we asked was, are you freezing new IT projects or deployments? Almost, 1/4 percentage of customers said they are. And so, that is going to spell problems for this space. When you think about, look, if you're going into uncertain times an easy way to reduce your budget is by, spending less with consulting vendors since you know, you can just less than the number of deliverables, these individuals get paid based on. How many deliverables they can complete. So this is another area that when you kind of think about where the declines are coming from, this is certainly an area to look at. >> A lot of the customers we've talked to have said, we've basically shut down spending on some of the large projects. We're still focusing on some digital transformation, but that's maybe a longer term priority. And then the IBM piece of this chart, guys, if you could bring it back is interesting to me because look, they paid 34 billion for Red Hat. I've always said a key to the Red Hat acquisition was being able to point it at the large consulting base and modernize those applications. IBM actually had a pretty good quarter in services. Although they did mention that respect especially in software that in the month of the quarter software spending shutdown. I don't think we got visibility that this piece of the business, but this could be, somewhat of a concern going forward. I think that's going to be one of the areas that gets slow rolled coming back, Sagar. I don't think it's going to come back tomorrow. So please your thoughts. >> Just to kind of quickly wrap up IBM. So yeah, one of the things we kind of saw in the data was not only eroding spending intention data on a lot of their SaaS portfolio but also eroding market share. And we saw big down takes on Red Hat products and IT services. Even in cloud. And I know they indicated pretty healthy numbers on Red Hat and cloud. But again, we're asking about 2020, forward-looking spending intentions. And of course they pulled their guidance. So we don't know how that's going to look. But in our data, things are really coming down versus three months ago. And so I think just overall, that is a data set that we're quite negative one. >> I think IBM has that sense. Like I said, March was not good for software. That's when the big deals come through. You're right. Red Hat, I think route 20% in the quarter and is now accredited from a cashflow basis, which is one of their targets. I think they beat their target there. Still good cashflow. But I think there's just so much uncertainty, And IBM have to be prepared for that and I'm sure will. That we're at minus 5% now. We're seeing cloud SaaS, we're seeing a bifurcation. We talked about some of the areas that are in trouble. That's kind of part one. Next week we'll be talking about part two. What can we expect? >> Yeah, we'll start going through networking, CDN, ITSM, IT workflows, database, data warehousing, and we'll kind of go through that as well. But again, you're going to see a lot of what we talked about today. Just the bifurcation span where, vendors that are more next gen, more work-from-home friendly like all of the SaaS guys, they're doing really well. And on the on-prem and the legacy, you're just seeing elevated replacements, elevated decreased rates. This is the most bifurcated, I've seen this data set and I've been doing this at ETR for, almost seven, probably going on eight years now. So I think that kind of says something about the environment that we're in and what to kind of expect in the next three to six months. >> And it's kind of like the stock market is right now. You're actually seeing, some great momentum in certain stocks and terrible in others. Those were great balance sheets and maybe COVID is a tailwind for them. Others, tons of uncertainty, a lot of concern. I know in poking around the data set, like you said, some of the analytics, the data warehouses, you see Snowflake, UiPath, Automation Anywhere. A lot of the automation, RPA, momentum is there. Security, we talked about that. There's some real bright spots there but a lot of the on-prem stuff. We'll see product cycles affect that, in the second half of of 2020. We'll continue to report on this Sagar. Thank you so much for we're coming on and we'll definitely see you next week. >> Thanks for having me again, Dave. Looking forward. >> All right, and thank you for watching, this CUBE insights powered by ETR. We will see you next time. Don't forget, all these episodes are available as podcasts, wherever you listen. Go to etr.plus, checkout what's happening there. Siliconangle.com has all the news I publish in there weekly. I also publish on wikibond.com. Thanks for watching this breaking analysis. This is Dave Vellante and Sagar Kadakia, we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, connecting with our leaders all around the world, this is theCUBE Conversation. >> Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wiki Bond CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're changing the format a little bit, we're going right to the new data from ETR. You might recall that last week, ETR received survey results from over 1000 CIOs and IT practitioners. And they made a call at that time, which said that actually surprisingly, a large number of respondents about 40% said they didn't expect a change in their 2020 IT spending. At the same time about 20% of the survey said they're going to spend more largely related to Work From Home infrastructure. ETR was really the first to report on this. And it wasn't just collaboration tool like zoom and video conferencing. It was infrastructure around that security, network bandwidth and other types of infrastructure to support Work From Home like desktop virtualization. ETR made the call at that time, that it looked like budgets, were going to be flat for 2020. Now, you also might recall consensus estimates for 2020 came into the year at about 4%, slightly ahead of GDP. Obviously, that's all is changed. Last week, ETR took the forecast down, and we're going to update you today. We're now gone slightly negative. And with me to talk about that again, is Sagar Kadakia, who's the Director of Research at ETR. Sagar, great to see you again, thank you for coming on. >> Thanks for having me again David, really appreciate it. >> Let's get right into it. I mean, if you look at the time series chart that we showed last week, you can see how sentiment changed over time. That blue line was basically people who responded to the survey starting at 3/11. Now you've updated that, that forecast, really tracking after the COVID-19 really kicked in. Can you explain what we're seeing here in this chart? >> Yeah, no problem. The last time we spoke, we were around an N or sample size of about 1000. And we were right around that zero percent growth rate. One of the unique things that we've done is we've left this survey open. And so what that allows us to do is really track the impact on annual IP growth, essentially daily. And so as things have progressed, as you look at that blue line, you can really see the growth rate has continued to trend downwards. And as of just a day or two ago, we're now below zero. And so I think because of what's occurring right now, the overall current climate continues to slightly deteriorate. You're seeing that in a lot of the CIOs responses. >> If you bring that slide back up Andrew, I want to just sort of stay on this for a second. What I really like about what you guys are doing is you're essentially bringing event analysis in this. So if you see that blue line, you see on 3/13, a national emergency was declared and that's really when the blue line started to decline. What ETR has done is kind of reset that, reset the data since 3/13. Because it's now a more accurate reflection of what's actually happening happening in the market. Notice in the upper right, it says the US approved... The Senate last night approved a stimulus package. Actually, they're calling it an Aid Package. It's really not a stimulus package. It's an aid package that they're injecting to help. A number of our workers actually sounds like existing workers and small businesses and even large businesses like Boeing. Boeing was up significantly yesterday powering the Dow and potentially airlines. As you can see ETR is going to continue to monitor the impact, and roll this out. Really ETR is the only company that I know of anyway, that can track this stuff on a daily basis. So Sagar, that event analysis is really key, and you're going to be watching the impact of this stimulus slash aid packet. >> Yeah, so here's what we're doing on that chart. If you look at that yellow line again, effectively what you're seeing is, if we remove the first I think six or seven 100 respondents that took the survey and start tracking how budgets are changing as a 3/13, that's when the US declared a national emergency. We can recalculate the growth rate. And we can see it's around... It's almost negative one and a half. And so the beauty of doing this, really polling daily, is it allows us to be just as dynamic, as a lot of these organizations are. I think one of the things we talked about the last time was some of these budget changes are going to be temporary. And organizations are figuring out what they're doing day by day. And a lot of that is dictated based on government actions. And so uniquely here, what we're able to do is kind of give people a range and also say, "based on these events, "this is how things are changing."" And so I think we think the first biggest event was on 3/13, where the US effectively declared a national emergency over COVID-19. And now what we're going to start tracking between today and over the weekend, and Monday is: Are people getting more positive? Is there no change? Or is there further deterioration because of this aid package that got passed this morning? >> Now I want to share with our audience. I've been down to ETR's headquarters in New York, it's staffed with a number of data scientists and statistical experts. The ends here are well over 1000. I think we're over 1100 now, is that correct? What is the end that we're at today? >> That's right. Yeah, we're we're pushing right over 1200. And we're going to expect a few more hundred respondents. The good thing is it's balanced, which is important. All these events that are occurring, we want to make sure that we have at least a few hundred more CIOs and IT executives answering. And so every week as we kind of continue to do some of these breaking analysis, there are going to be a few more hundred CIOs. And we'll really be able to zero in or hone in on what they're saying. The growth rate on the IT side, it's going to continue to fluctuate. It's going to continue to be dynamic over the next few weeks, but right now versus (murmurs). We are in negative territory now. >> I want to also explain I mean, the end is important. But in and of itself, it's not the be all end all, what's important about the end, the larger it is, the more cuts you can make. And I want to share... You guys have been doing this for the better part of a decade. And so you have firm level data. And you've got indicators and markers that you've tracked over the years. For example, one of the things that ETR tracks is Giant Public and Private GDP we call it. And that's for example, I'm not saying that, that Mars is one of the companies but Mars is a huge private company, UPS before they went public, huge private company. ETR tracks firm level data, they of course anonymize that, but they can see markers and trackers and trends, and probably have, I don't know dozens of those types of segments. So the bigger the end is, the more... The higher the end within those buckets, and the better the confidence interval. And you guys are experts at really digging into that in trying to understand and read the tea leaves. >> That's right. The key to this survey is, it's not anonymous, we know who is taking the survey. Now to your point, we do anonymize and aggregate it when we display those results. But one of the unique capabilities is we're able to see all of these trend lines. The entire drill down survey that we did on COVID-19 through the lenses of different verticals so we can take a look at industrials materials manufacturing, healthcare, pharma, airlines, delivery services, health, and all these other verticals and get a feel for which ones are deteriorating the most, which ones look stable. And, we talked about last week and it continues to remain true this week. And again, the ends have gone up on all these verticals on the supply chain side. Industrials, materials manufacturing, healthcare, pharma, they continue and they also anticipate to see these things in the next few months, broken supply chains and on the demand side, it's really retail consumer airlines delivery services. That's coming down quite substantial. And I think, based on what United and some of these other airlines have done these last few days in terms of cutting capacity, that's just a reflection of what we're seeing. >> Let's dig into the data a little bit more and bring up the next chart. Last week, we're about 40% actually, exactly 40% where that gray line that said: CIOs and IT practitioners said, "no change." They're like the budget of the green. The green was actually at about 20 21%. So it's slightly up now at 22%. And you can see, most of the the green is in that one to 10% range. And you can see in the left hand side, it's obviously changing. Now we're at 37% in the gray line, slightly up in the green, and a little bit more down and in the red. So take us through what's changed Sagar. >> Yeah, to reiterate what we were talking about last week, and then I'll kind of talk about some of the change is, I think the market and a lot of our clients, they were expecting the growth rate to be more negative. Last week when we talked about zero percent. The reason that, it wasn't more negative is because we saw all these organizations accelerating spend because they had to keep employees productive. They don't want to catastrophe in productivity. And so you saw this acceleration, as you mentioned earlier in the interview around Work From Home tools, like collaboration tools, increasing bandwidth on the VPN networking side, laptops, MDM, so forth and so on. That continues to hold true today. Again, if we use the same example that we talked about last week, (mumbles) organizations, they have 40 50 60,000 employees or more working from home. You have to be able to support these individuals and that's why we're actually seeing some organizations accelerate spend and the majority organizations even though they are declining spend, some of that is still being offset by having to spend more on what we're calling kind of this Work From Home infrastructure. But I will say this: you are seeing more organizations versus last week, which is why the growth rate has come down, moving more and more towards the negative buckets. Again, there is some offset there. But the offset we talked about last week, Work From Home infrastructure is not a one-for-one when it comes to taking down your IT budget, and that continues to hold true. >> Let's talk a little bit about some of the industries retail, airlines, industrials, pharma, healthcare, what are you seeing in terms of the industry impact, particularly when it relates to supply chains, but other industry data that went through? >> I think the biggest takeaway is that healthcare pharma, industry materials, manufacturing organizations, they've indicated the highest levels of broken supply chains today. And they think in three months from now, it's actually going to get worse. And so we spoke about this last time, I don't think this is going to be a V shaped recovery from the standpoint of things are going to get better in the next few weeks or the next month or two. CIOs are indicating that they expect conditions to worsen over the next three months on the supply chain side and even demand the ones that are getting hit the hardest on the retail consumer side airlines, delivery services, they are again indicating that they anticipate demand to be worse three months from now. The goal is to continue serving and pulling these individuals over the next few weeks and months and to see if we can get a better timeline as we get into two edge but for the next few months, conditions look like they're going to get worse. >> I want to highlight some of the industries and let's make some comments here. Retail... You guys called out retail airlines, delivery services, industrials, materials, manufacturing, pharma and healthcare, there's some of the highest impact. I'll just make a few comments here. I think retail really, this accelerates the whole digital transformation. We already saw this starting, I think you'll see further consolidation and some permanence in the way in which companies are pivoting to digital. Obviously, the big guys like Walmart and the like are competing very effectively with Amazon. But, there's going to be some more consolidation there. I would say potentially the same thing in airlines that really are closely watching what the government is going to do. But, do we need this this many airlines? Do we need all this capacity? Maybe yes, maybe no. So watching that. And of course, healthcare right now, as I said last week in the braking analysis, they're just too distracted right now to buy anything. And they're overwhelmed. Now, of course, pharma, they're manufacturing, so they've got disruptions in supply chain and obviously the business. But there could be an upside down the road as COVID-19 vaccines come to the market. >> On the upside, I think you kind of hit it, right on the nail. When you get these type of events that occur. Sometimes it speeds up digital transformation. one of the things that the team and I have been talking about internally is: this is not your father's Keep The Lights On strategy so to speak. Organizations are very focused on maintaining productivity versus significantly cutting costs. What does that mean? Maybe three to five years ago, if this had occurred, you would have seen a lot of infrastructure as a service platform, as a service... A lot of these cloud providers, you'd have seen those projects decline as organization spent more on on plan. And we're not seeing that. We're seeing continued elevated budgets on the Cloud side and Micron just reported this morning and again, cited strong demand on the Cloud and data center side. That just goes to show that organizations are trying to maintain productivity. They want to continue these IT roadmaps and they're going to cut budgets where they can, but it's not going to be on the Cloud side. >> You know what, that's a really important point. This is not post Y2K, not 2008, 2007, 2008, 2009 because we've, pretended but a 10 year bull market, companies are doing pretty well, balance sheets are generally strong. They somewhat in whether, it was used to stronger companies, whether they're so they're not focused right now anyway, on cut cut cut as it was in the last few downturns. Let's go into some of the vendor data and some of the sector data, Andrew if you'd bring up the next chart. What we're showing here is really comparing the the blue is the January survey to the current survey in the yellow, and you're seeing some of the sectors that are up taking. You've identified mobile device management, big data and Cloud, some of the productivity, you mentioned DocuSign, Adobe zoom, Citrix, even VMware with the desktop virtualization. We've talked about security, you've got marketing and LinkedIn, my LinkedIn inbound is going through the roof as people are probably signing up for a LinkedIn premium. Let's talk about this a little bit. What you're seeing... Help us interpret this data. >> Yeah, sure. One of the things that everybody wants to know is, okay, so Work From Home infrastructures getting more spend for the vendors that are benefiting the most. One of the unique things that we can do is because we're kind of collecting all the DNA, from a tech stack aside from these organizations, we can overlap, how they're spending on these vendors. And also with the data that they provide in terms of whether they are increasing or decelerating their IT budgets because of COVID-19. What you're looking at here, is we isolated to all of those organizations and customers that indicated that they're increasing their budgets because of COVID-19. Because of the Work From Home infrastructure. And what we're doing is we're then isolating to vendors that are getting the most upticks in spend. This actually really nicely aligns with a lot of the themes that we were talking about collaboration tools. You see that VMware, they're all right on the virtualization side, MDM with Microsoft. And you're seeing a lot of other vendors with Citrix and Zoom and Adobe. These are the ones that we think are going to benefit from this kind of Work From home infrastructure movement. And again, it's all very... It's not just the qualitative and the commentary. This is all analytics, we really went in and analyzed every single one of these organizations that were increasing their budgets and tried to pinpoint using different data analysis techniques, and to see which vendors were really getting the majority or the largest, pie of that span. >> We had Sanjay Poonen, who's the CEO of VMware on yesterday and he was very sensitive but not trying to hear as your ambulance chasing because obviously they do desktop virtualization and VDI big workload. At the same time. I think he was also being cautious because there's probably portions of their business that are going to get hit, Michael Dell similarly, I think he was quoted in CRN as saying, "hey, are we seeing momentum in our laptop "business in our mobile business?" But as you guys pointed out, the flip side of that is their on prem business is probably going to suffer somewhat. It's a kind of like the Work From Home is a partial offset, but it's not a total offset. You're seeing that with a lot of these companies. Obviously, Microsoft, AWS, a lot of the cloud companies are very well positioned, how about some of the guys that are going to get impacted? Obviously, as I said that the on-prem folks, you guys talked about earlier it's not your father's Keep Your Lights On strategy. Okay but this... You asked the question, is this a reprieve for the legacy guys? Not quite, was your conclusion. What did you mean by that? >> I think a lot of times when you have these sub-events, the clients a lot of the market think okay, "some of the legacy vendors are going to do well "because, we're in malicious times, "and we don't want to keep on this kind "of next generation strategy." We're not seeing that and to the point that you highlighted earlier. There are... Even though these companies like Dell, like Cisco, where they're seeing some products accelerate, there are products to your point that are not doing as well The desktops, right? As an example for Dell or the storage. On the negative side or the legacy side where we're just not seeing any traction, the IBM's the Oracle on-prem, Symantec, which got acquired by Broadcom, checkpoint MicroStrategy. And there's another half dozen other vendors that we're seeing where they are not capitalizing. There is no reprieve for these legacy names. And we don't anticipate them getting additional spend, because of this Work From Home infrastructure kind of movement. >> Let's unpack that a little bit. It's interesting Symantec and checkpoint in security, security you think would get an uplift there, but what you're seeing here is... Let me just tell the audience who you called out. Symantec Teradata MicroStrategy, NET app Checkpoint Oracle and IBM, and I know there are others. But I would say this: These are companies that are getting impacted in a big way by the Cloud. Particularly like Symantec and checkpoint. That's a Cloud security companies are actually probably still doing pretty well. You take Teradata, their data is getting impact by the Cloud from folks like Snowflake and Redshift, MicroStrategy a lot of modern BI coming out. NetApp here's a company that's embraced the Cloud, but the vast majority of the business changess to be on-prem. I think IBM and Oracle are interesting. They're somewhat different. Actually a lot different IBM has services exposure, and you guys call that out, particularly around outsourcing. At the same time, it's going to be interesting to see IBM is going to get a lot of resources. Going to be interesting to see if they start coming out with corona virus related services. So watching for that, and then Oracle, their whole story is, "okay, we got Gen 2 Cloud and Mission Critical in the Cloud, but they're on-prem businesses, I think clearly going to be affected here is kind of what you guys pointed out, and I would agree with your thoughts. >> I think what we're seeing is organizations they had a Cloud roadmap, and that roadmap is continuing. The one thing that is changing in some of that roadmap is we need to be able to support employees as they work from home as we achieve this roadmap. And so that's why we're not seeing a reprieve on the legacy side. But we are seeing upticks and spin where we just wouldn't anticipate them right on maybe on Citrix, on Dell laptops, Adobe and a few other areas. Now, in terms of security side, some of the next gen security vendors like CrowdStrike APi, which is an MFA, those vendors are doing well. It makes sense, where you have more people working from home, you have more devices that are connecting to data applications. Just a component itself. And so you would expect spend to continue going up as you need more authentication, more Endpoint Protection. Cisco Meraki they do Cloud Networking. That piece is looking very good, even though Hardware networking is not looking very good at all. The Cloud Networking is looking good, which again makes sense, as you're increasing bandwidth on that side. >> Definitely stories of two sides of that coin. >> That's right >> I want to... Andrew, if you want to... If you wouldn't mind bringing up the next job, we're going to go back to the first one that we showed you with the time series. This is a very important point. Again, we can't stress it enough. We want to understand the impact of the stimulus or aid package. And ETR is going to continue to track that. What can we expect from you guys over the next week or so? >> The goal is to determine whether or not the stimulus is having an impact on how people are responding to our survey as a relates to how they're changing their budgets. The next four or five days, if we start seeing an uptick in this yellow and blue lines here, I think that's a positive. I think that shows that people are kind of wrapping their heads around, great government is taking action here. There is a roadmap in place to help us get out of this. But if the line continues coming down, it just may be that the last few weeks or the last month or so, there was just so much damage. There's not really... There's no coming back from this at least in the near term. So we are kind of watching out for that. >> Well, the Fed is definitely active. >> They're doing right what they can, they're pushing liquidity into the marketplace. People think out of bullets. I don't agree with the Fed. Fed has a quite a bit of of headroom and some dry powder, (murmurs) which is awesome. But the Fed itself, can't do it. You needed to have this fiscal stimulus. So we're excited to see that come to market. I think what I would say to our audiences, my concern is uncertainty. The markets don't like uncertainty and right now there's a lot of uncertainty. If you saw the piece on medium of The Hammer And The Dance it lays out some scenarios about what could happen to the healthcare system. You see people who say, "hey, we should shut down for 10 weeks." The president saying, "hey, we want "to get back to work by by April." The big concern that I have is: okay, maybe we can stamp it out in the near term and get back to work by late April, early May. But then what happens? Are people going to start traveling again? Are people going to start holding events again? And I think there's going to be some real question marks around that. That uncertainty I think, is something that we obviously have to watch. I think there is light at the end of the tunnel, when you look at China and some of the other things that are happening around the world, but we still don't know how long that tunnel is. I'll give you final thoughts before we wrap. >> I think and that's the biggest thing here is the uncertainty, which is why we're doing a lot of this event analysis. We're trying to figure out: after each one of these big events, is there more certainty in people's responses? And just we were talking about, sectors and verticals and vendors that are not doing well. Because the uncertainty we're seeing a lot of down ticks and spend amongst outsource IT and IT consulting vendors. And as long as the uncertainty continues, you're going to see more and more IT projects frozen, less and less spend on those outsource IT and IT consulting vendors and others. And until there's something really in place here where people feel comfortable, you're going to probably see budgets remain where they are, which right now they're negative. >> Folks as we said last week, Sagar and I, ETR is committed, theCUBE is committed to keep you updated on a regular basis. Right now on a weekly cadence. As we have new information, we will bring it to you. Sagar, thanks so much for coming on and supporting us. >> You're welcome and thanks for having me again. >> You're welcome. Thank you for watching this CUBE Insights powered by ETR. And remember all these breaking analysis available on podcast, go to etr.plus that's where all the action is in terms of the survey work. siliconangle.comm covers these breaking analysis and I published weekly on wikibond.com. Thanks for watching everybody. Stay safe. And we'll see you next time.

>> (Announcer) From Boston, Massachusetts, it's the Cube! Covering LiveWorx 18. Brought to you by PTC. >> Welcome back to the Seaport in Boston, everybody. This is day one of the LiveWorx show, PTC's big IoT user conference, but it's much, much more than that. My name's Dave Vellante, Stu Miniman. You're watching the Cube, the leader in LiveTech coverage. It's really our pleasure to have Devin Cleary here, he's the Director of Events at PTC. Dev, thanks so much for coming on The Cube, and thanks for putting together such a great show. >> Oh, thank you so much for having me. This is great. >> You're welcome. So, I say it's a user conference, but it's so much more. I mean, talk about what your intent was and what you've created, you and your team at LiveWorx. >> Absolutely. So for us, we take a step back in corporate events. And we're really trying to bring sort of a unique flair to the corporate events world. In a nutshell, we at PTC have a 25 year legacy of doing really powerful user events, and it was really an inspiration two years ago to kind of shake the mold. And again, no pun intended, be disruptive in the marketplace. So for us, we sort of coined a new term or strategy that we call Industry Inclusiveness. And this is something where we wanted to sort of break down the four walls of the company, and invite industry influencers, individuals who are leading the charge, inclusive of actual competitors, 'cause for us, it's better together. And the whole story and talk track around LiveWorx is collaboration accelerates innovation. So for us, we want to make sure we embrace a lot of different people, walks of life, and diversity, and the intent is to create a one time a week a year, successful program that focuses and profiles nine of the most disruptive technologies on the planet. So this is everything from robotics to AI, to IoT, to AR, blockchain, and so much more. And for us, this is really the essence of what LiveWorx has become, which again for us, we want everyone to know that this event is sort of the world's most respected digital transformation conference. >> So, couple things I want to point out. Well, so over 6,000 people here, the kickoff was in the theater-in-the-round I've only seen that-- We do over a hundred events every year, I've only seen it done twice, and it's worked both times. I think it's a home run when you do the theater-in-the-round. The intro was like, I tweeted out this morning, it was like an Olympic opening ceremony. I mean really, where do you get your inspiration from that? >> So, you know what, for us, I have a really amazing team that works with me and collaboratively. And for us, we really want to sort of challenge the status quo. So, we always look for things actually outside of the tech bubble, if you will. We look at music. We look at fashion. We look at art. We look at a lot of pop culture sort of references and that sort of stems our ideas of how we sort of nurture and create what we call the apex, or LiveWorx or what you saw this morning. And for us, I'm all about what I call delight moments. So these are moments that frankly are sort of above and beyond the core content of what the conference offers and just making people have a great time. Showmanship and entertainment is just as much important as the core again content that we offer at LiveWorx. >> Dev, you've got a big tent here with a lot of different topics. There's a show I go to, we talk about the random collision of unusual suspects, which this reminded me of. Can you talk a little bit about how in these diverse communities, yet we should see some overlap and some bumping together. >> Yeah. Absolutely. So, again with LiveWorx, and sort of again profiling these nine to ten most disruptive technologies out there, we're always trying to recruit people that are very diverse from various backgrounds. You know, one specific goal that we have, just from a geographic persepective is making sure that over half our audience is from international markets outside of the United States. So again, when you're bumping shoulders or walking the halls everywhere around us, you're guaranteed to hear someone that comes from a different walk of life, a different experience, a different educational background and that adds a lot of value to the overall conference. Now, again, we target everyone from administrators to engineers, developers and more because really this show runs the gamut on everything from product design and sort of the ideas of what you want to do, all the way through service, manufacturing, it is the full scope of industry 4.0. So, to your point, there's a lot of intersection and a lot of overlapping because every company, every person, every individual, wants to experience and learn how to embrace what we call disruptive tech. >> You know, again, we do a lot of shows and the vast majority, when someone like you guys brings us to a show, they want to showcase their products and basically pimp up their own stuff. You chose a different approach. First of all, thank you for that. So, this today has been all about thought leadership. Stu and I were saying it reminds us of some of the stuff we do with MIT. Where you have professors, you have thought leaders, talking about not, kind of frankly, some boring products. >> And it's not a sales pitch. >> Right, it's not a sales pitch. But, why that decision and what's your vision for where you want to take this thing? >> Yeah, so again, I would say that a lot of conferences, and this is no offense to my brothers and my sisters in the events world out there, but people are so sick and tired of going to the standard trade show. The days of pipe-and-drape and aisles of just being pitched to and receiving free stress balls, and hiring staff that might not even be employed by the company, but they just frankly look good, those days are completely over. In our audience, the technologists who really matter in this world, who are doing a lot of great work, they want that substance and that core content. So, for us, it's really a vision about that's embraced and sort of evolved into give back and let the content lead your success. And that is going to help amplify the voice and further the mission. We look at LiveWorx as a catalyst well beyond the company that employs me and the people that work for just these companies. We have a vision to make Boston an epicenter, a headquarters, a world-renown attraction for technologists world-wide knowing this city for IoT and for AR. And for us, we embrace the innovation district as that pallet, that backdrop, that environment to allow us to really accomplish that. So, LiveWorx is growing exponentially. We experienced double digit growth this year, which was amazing. Starting where I was only with this company two years ago and less than 25 hundred attendees and we're at 6,100 right now live on the show floor at LiveWorx. So the future is really bright for us, and we're embracing this notion of the convention center is only going to be constricting for so long. It's time that we also implode those four walls and we embrace the outside. And what our plans are going for, which I'm really excited to sort of announce, is we're going to be now becoming more of an industrial innovation week in Boston, and taking our plans mainstream. So, that means taking the content that we focus on, and the partners that we work with, and the industry thought leaders and now you start to actually replicate these events throughout the entire seaport. So, think of it, and again most of you know South by Southwest, I'm a big fan and an avid follower, think of it South by Southwest meets Industrial, and that is the future of this show. >> Love it, and you know, we're thrilled to be part of it. And it's palpable. You actually see now, in the seaport... You know, we were talking off camera, you can't compete with Silicon Valley or on terms with Silicon Valley does. You shouldn't even try. We're bicoastal, we have an office in Palo Alto we know it well. It's a unique vortex. But certainly, IoT, Blockchain, VR, there really is some clear innovation going on here so, if you can focus on that, you can actually really blossom an ecosystem and that's really what you're doing. >> Oh, absolutely. And, again, PTC has been headquartered here for over 25 years, they're a leader in industrial innovation. They're a company that believes in giving back. We have curated and nurtured through partnerships with Harvard Business School, with MIT Innovation Lab, etc. We have cultivated some of the greatest startups of our time right now, who are creating groundbreaking technology in IoT, in AR, that is changing the world. We're even actually doing work right now in our backyard with Boston Children's Hospital, for example. Doing incredible work with our Vuforia product in AR that's helping actually find a cure for Alzheimer's. So, again, the possibilities are endless, and the innovation is limitless. >> Well, you're the hot company right now, obviously growing very rapidly, you're kind of like the Comeback Kid. You're clearly punching above your weight. The Scott Kirsner article in the Globe was unbelieveable. >> (Devin) Thank you I know we're very... Shout out to Scott. >> And so, you got to be thrilled with that. But, what's interesting to me, Dev, is you're not... You could ride that wave, and just pump up PTC but you're doing things that will allow you to sustain this as a community member, paying it forward, you know, it's kind of a cliche, but that's what I see. Thoughts? >> A hundred percent. And, again, the way that we sort of frame LiveWorx is I want you to think of PTC as the presenting sponsor. They are an investor in the vision that this team has to carry forward the community and the movement all around industrial innovation. And again, we feel that Boston being sort of our headquarters in our backyard, it's important that we're giving back and again, furthering that opportunity to further solidify our right as a rightful heir of IoT and AR, as a city, as a community and as the state of Massachusetts. >> Dev, wondering if you could give our audience that didn't come to this event a quick flavor of what's going on, flavoring and I loved you had the Boston food trucks all right outside. They're a little warm. My friends from the west coast are like, "This isn't warm." But for Boston, it hit summer. But, give us a quick tour around what people missed. >> Yeah, so we're all about an immersive experience at LiveWorx. Again, you're going to have sort of a checklist of what you absolutely need to have at an event to sustain someone's expectations. So, the content, the networking, the value. But again, we like to take it a step further and things that I call delight moments. So, for example, this year in Extropolis, and Extropolis, for those of you at home, that is our sort of expectation shattering, ground-breaking, playground for adults in technology. So, every corner, every ounce, every inch of this show floor has something to engage, ignite the 5 senses and tell our story. And one example specifically that I love to highlight this year is I've actually created the vision with a whole slew of individuals from PTC and partners and whatnot. Something we call the X-factory. Manufacturing is one of the biggest industries in business in the world. Mostly every company at an enterprise level has some sort of manufacturing component to it. And what we wanted to do this year is create the factory of the future. Meaning, working with the leaders like McKinsey, and again HeroTech and global brands in Germany who are defining manufacturing and who founded manufacturing in our history, we have partnered with them to say, "What does that factory of the future look like? What are companies going to be doing five, ten, fifteen years from now and what can we expect?" You're getting that first at LiveWorx, which is awesome, and the whole process is "Let's not have a standard kiosk. Let's not do a laptop with a video. Let's actually build out a 20,000 square foot industrial factory with multiple stations from digital engineering to service to again, AR induced digital twins and everything else in between. And let's actually have every single attendee create, design and manufacture a smart connected product. We're working with our partner, Bell and Howell, from a shipping, service and supply chain perspective, and again, we are blowing the roof off this show on that one activation, and there's over a hundred in total throughout this entire show this week. So, that's a little bit of a flavor of LiveWorx. And beyond that, we do things, everything from a puppy daycare hour to sort of do a high tech low touch feel. We do incredible food presentations and we're going to be ending with a big bang tomorrow with our closing party called the Mix-It Six, which is one of my favorite programs the entire week. And that is actually a superhero themed event where we're actually having a guest host and a personal friend, Paul Rudd, who was the Ant Man for Marvel, he'll be hosting our event. And the whole notion around superheroes is that we tell everyone this week "Unleash your inner superhero". Take advantage of the technology that is on display, and realize how it can enable and empower you to now have superhuman powers. So, everything from AR giving you the power to see the invisible, to IoT helping you get the power to predict the future. Everything is possible and everything is creative at LiveWorx. >> Well, it's obviously working. And so, I'm sure the execs are seeing this going, "Great. Good Job. Way to go. We've got some momentum. Let's double down." But, you back up two years ago, how did you sell this to the folks? Cause we see a lot of guys like, "Alright, how many leads we going to get out. How much revenue we going to drive" How'd you get through that knothole? >> So, let's put it in this perspective. There's a lot of intrinsic and intangible ways to measure the success of a show, and the value and the impact brought to a company. One thing I would actually say, I've worked in the tech industry for over six years now, I've been in the events business for over a decade, I've worked for some of the most incredible and impressive, and media-driven startups in the world right now. PTC, though, is a very interesting ecosystem. Their executives actually embrace the notion of what I presented first and foremost, about again, industry inclusiveness as we call that term. And for us, we have a vision at PTC to be disruptive, to be ground-breaking. If we do not embrace that ourselves, as our culture and our business model, how do we hope someone else to believe in the product, and the vision and the mission that we set forth in the marketplace. >> And from that, you got a response of, "Yeah, let's do it." >> So, again, am I going to be a hundred percent honest and transparent? Was everyone embracing that a hundred percent? No. But again, I think the proof is in the pudding and I think again it's a leap of faith in saying, "Listen, take a chance. Be disruptive, and see what the product of our fruits of our labor could be." And again, here you have it three years later, triple the size of the audience, tripling the size of the success, seeing multiple customers, multiple partners multiple industry leaders now attaching themselves to this brand. So for us, LiveWorx is nothing greater than a record breaking success this year, and I'm so excited for the rest of you at home to experience on the live stream, or again check out 2019 June 10-13. >> June 10, right here. Right? >> (Devin) Right here again. >> Dev, first of all thanks so much for having The Cube here and making us a part of this awesome event and look forward to working with you in the future. Congratulations on all your success. >> Thank you so much. >> You're very welcome. By the way, check out thecube.net that's where all the videos here will be. Check out siliconangle.com all the editorial coverage. Wikibond.com is where the research is. We're a wrap here from LiveWorx day one. Dave Vellante, for Stu Miniman. Thanks so much for watching, we'll see you next time.