(gentle synth music) (music ends) >> Welcome back to Supercloud 2, an open industry collaboration between technologists, consultants, analysts, and of course practitioners to help shape the future of cloud. At this event, one of the key areas we're exploring is the intersection of cloud and data. And how building value on top of hyperscale clouds and across clouds is evolving, a concept of course we call "Supercloud". And we're pleased to welcome our friends from Enterprise Technology research, Erik Bradley and Darren Brabham. Guys, thanks for joining us, great to see you. we love to bring the data into these conversations. >> Thank you for having us, Dave, I appreciate it. >> Yeah, thanks. >> You bet. And so, let me do the setup on what is Supercloud. It's a concept that we've floated, Before re:Invent 2021, based on the idea that cloud infrastructure is becoming ubiquitous, incredibly powerful, but there's a lack of standards across the big three clouds. That creates friction. So we defined over the period of time, you know, better part of a year, a set of essential elements, deployment models for so-called supercloud, which create this common experience for specific cloud services that, of course, again, span multiple clouds and even on-premise data. So Erik, with that as background, I wonder if you could add your general thoughts on the term supercloud, maybe play proxy for the CIO community, 'cause you do these round tables, you talk to these guys all the time, you gather a lot of amazing information from senior IT DMs that compliment your survey. So what are your thoughts on the term and the concept? >> Yeah, sure. I'll even go back to last year when you and I did our predictions panel, right? And we threw it out there. And to your point, you know, there's some haters. Anytime you throw out a new term, "Is it marketing buzz? Is it worth it? Why are you even doing it?" But you know, from my own perspective, and then also speaking to the IT DMs that we interview on a regular basis, this is just a natural evolution. It's something that's inevitable in enterprise tech, right? The internet was not built for what it has become. It was never intended to be the underlying infrastructure of our daily lives and work. The cloud also was not built to be what it's become. But where we're at now is, we have to figure out what the cloud is and what it needs to be to be scalable, resilient, secure, and have the governance wrapped around it. And to me that's what supercloud is. It's a way to define operantly, what the next generation, the continued iteration and evolution of the cloud and what its needs to be. And that's what the supercloud means to me. And what depends, if you want to call it metacloud, supercloud, it doesn't matter. The point is that we're trying to define the next layer, the next future of work, which is inevitable in enterprise tech. Now, from the IT DM perspective, I have two interesting call outs. One is from basically a senior developer IT architecture and DevSecOps who says he uses the term all the time. And the reason he uses the term, is that because multi-cloud has a stigma attached to it, when he is talking to his business executives. (David chuckles) the stigma is because it's complex and it's expensive. So he switched to supercloud to better explain to his business executives and his CFO and his CIO what he's trying to do. And we can get into more later about what it means to him. But the inverse of that, of course, is a good CSO friend of mine for a very large enterprise says the concern with Supercloud is the reduction of complexity. And I'll explain, he believes anything that takes the requirement of specific expertise out of the equation, even a little bit, as a CSO worries him. So as you said, David, always two sides to the coin, but I do believe supercloud is a relevant term, and it is necessary because the cloud is continuing to be defined. >> You know, that's really interesting too, 'cause you know, Darren, we use Snowflake a lot as an example, sort of early supercloud, and you think from a security standpoint, we've always pushed Amazon and, "Are you ever going to kind of abstract the complexity away from all these primitives?" and their position has always been, "Look, if we produce these primitives, and offer these primitives, we we can move as the market moves. When you abstract, then it becomes harder to peel the layers." But Darren, from a data standpoint, like I say, we use Snowflake a lot. I think of like Tim Burners-Lee when Web 2.0 came out, he said, "Well this is what the internet was always supposed to be." So in a way, you know, supercloud is maybe what multi-cloud was supposed to be. But I mean, you think about data sharing, Darren, across clouds, it's always been a challenge. Snowflake always, you know, obviously trying to solve that problem, as are others. But what are your thoughts on the concept? >> Yeah, I think the concept fits, right? It is reflective of, it's a paradigm shift, right? Things, as a pendulum have swung back and forth between needing to piece together a bunch of different tools that have specific unique use cases and they're best in breed in what they do. And then focusing on the duct tape that holds 'em all together and all the engineering complexity and skill, it shifted from that end of the pendulum all the way back to, "Let's streamline this, let's simplify it. Maybe we have budget crunches and we need to consolidate tools or eliminate tools." And so then you kind of see this back and forth over time. And with data and analytics for instance, a lot of organizations were trying to bring the data closer to the business. That's where we saw self-service analytics coming in. And tools like Snowflake, what they did was they helped point to different databases, they helped unify data, and organize it in a single place that was, you know, in a sense neutral, away from a single cloud vendor or a single database, and allowed the business to kind of be more flexible in how it brought stuff together and provided it out to the business units. So Snowflake was an example of one of those times where we pulled back from the granular, multiple points of the spear, back to a simple way to do things. And I think Snowflake has continued to kind of keep that mantle to a degree, and we see other tools trying to do that, but that's all it is. It's a paradigm shift back to this kind of meta abstraction layer that kind of simplifies what is the reality, that you need a complex multi-use case, multi-region way of doing business. And it sort of reflects the reality of that. >> And you know, to me it's a spectrum. As part of Supercloud 2, we're talking to a number of of practitioners, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, US West, we got Walmart. And it's a spectrum, right? In some cases the practitioner's saying, "You know, the way I solve multi-cloud complexity is mono-cloud, I just do one cloud." (laughs) Others like Walmart are saying, "Hey, you know, we actually are building an abstraction layer ourselves, take advantage of it." So my general question to both of you is, is this a concept, is the lack of standards across clouds, you know, really a problem, you know, or is supercloud a solution looking for a problem? Or do you hear from practitioners that "No, this is really an issue, we have to bring together a set of standards to sort of unify our cloud estates." >> Allow me to answer that at a higher level, and then we're going to hand it over to Dr. Brabham because he is a little bit more detailed on the realtime streaming analytics use cases, which I think is where we're going to get to. But to answer that question, it really depends on the size and the complexity of your business. At the very large enterprise, Dave, Yes, a hundred percent. This needs to happen. There is complexity, there is not only complexity in the compute and actually deploying the applications, but the governance and the security around them. But for lower end or, you know, business use cases, and for smaller businesses, it's a little less necessary. You certainly don't need to have all of these. Some of the things that come into mind from the interviews that Darren and I have done are, you know, financial services, if you're doing real-time trading, anything that has real-time data metrics involved in your transactions, is going to be necessary. And another use case that we hear about is in online travel agencies. So I think it is very relevant, the complexity does need to be solved, and I'll allow Darren to explain a little bit more about how that's used from an analytics perspective. >> Yeah, go for it. >> Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think any modern, you know, multinational company that's going to have a footprint in the US and Europe, in China, or works in different areas like manufacturing, where you're probably going to have on-prem instances that will stay on-prem forever, for various performance reasons. You have these complicated governance and security and regulatory issues. So inherently, I think, large multinational companies and or companies that are in certain areas like finance or in, you know, online e-commerce, or things that need real-time data, they inherently are going to have a very complex environment that's going to need to be managed in some kind of cleaner way. You know, they're looking for one door to open, one pane of glass to look at, one thing to do to manage these multi points. And, streaming's a good example of that. I mean, not every organization has a real-time streaming use case, and may not ever, but a lot of organizations do, a lot of industries do. And so there's this need to use, you know, they want to use open-source tools, they want to use Apache Kafka for instance. They want to use different megacloud vendors offerings, like Google Pub/Sub or you know, Amazon Kinesis Firehose. They have all these different pieces they want to use for different use cases at different stages of maturity or proof of concept, you name it. They're going to have to have this complexity. And I think that's why we're seeing this need, to have sort of this supercloud concept, to juggle all this, to wrangle all of it. 'Cause the reality is, it's complex and you have to simplify it somehow. >> Great, thanks you guys. All right, let's bring up the graphic, and take a look. Anybody who follows the breaking analysis, which is co-branded with ETR Cube Insights powered by ETR, knows we like to bring data to the table. ETR does amazing survey work every quarter, 1200 plus 1500 practitioners that that answer a number of questions. The vertical axis here is net score, which is ETR's proprietary methodology, which is a measure of spending momentum, spending velocity. And the horizontal axis here is overlap, but it's the presence pervasiveness, and the dataset, the ends, that table insert on the bottom right shows you how the dots are plotted, the net score and then the ends in the survey. And what we've done is we've plotted a bunch of the so-called supercloud suspects, let's start in the upper right, the cloud platforms. Without these hyperscale clouds, you can't have a supercloud. And as always, Azure and AWS, up and to the right, it's amazing we're talking about, you know, 80 plus billion dollar company in AWS. Azure's business is, if you just look at the IaaS is in the 50 billion range, I mean it's just amazing to me the net scores here. Anything above 40% we consider highly elevated. And you got Azure and you got Snowflake, Databricks, HashiCorp, we'll get to them. And you got AWS, you know, right up there at that size, it's quite amazing. With really big ends as well, you know, 700 plus ends in the survey. So, you know, kind of half the survey actually has these platforms. So my question to you guys is, what are you seeing in terms of cloud adoption within the big three cloud players? I wonder if you could could comment, maybe Erik, you could start. >> Yeah, sure. Now we're talking data, now I'm happy. So yeah, we'll get into some of it. Right now, the January, 2023 TSIS is approaching 1500 survey respondents. One caveat, it's not closed yet, it will close on Friday, but with an end that big we are over statistically significant. We also recently did a cloud survey, and there's a couple of key points on that I want to get into before we get into individual vendors. What we're seeing here, is that annual spend on cloud infrastructure is expected to grow at almost a 70% CAGR over the next three years. The percentage of those workloads for cloud infrastructure are expected to grow over 70% as three years as well. And as you mentioned, Azure and AWS are still dominant. However, we're seeing some share shift spreading around a little bit. Now to get into the individual vendors you mentioned about, yes, Azure is still number one, AWS is number two. What we're seeing, which is incredibly interesting, CloudFlare is number three. It's actually beating GCP. That's the first time we've seen it. What I do want to state, is this is on net score only, which is our measure of spending intentions. When you talk about actual pervasion in the enterprise, it's not even close. But from a spending velocity intention point of view, CloudFlare is now number three above GCP, and even Salesforce is creeping up to be at GCPs level. So what we're seeing here, is a continued domination by Azure and AWS, but some of these other players that maybe might fit into your moniker. And I definitely want to talk about CloudFlare more in a bit, but I'm going to stop there. But what we're seeing is some of these other players that fit into your Supercloud moniker, are starting to creep up, Dave. >> Yeah, I just want to clarify. So as you also know, we track IaaS and PaaS revenue and we try to extract, so AWS reports in its quarterly earnings, you know, they're just IaaS and PaaS, they don't have a SaaS play, a little bit maybe, whereas Microsoft and Google include their applications and so we extract those out and if you do that, AWS is bigger, but in the surveys, you know, customers, they see cloud, SaaS to them as cloud. So that's one of the reasons why you see, you know, Microsoft as larger in pervasion. If you bring up that survey again, Alex, the survey results, you see them further to the right and they have higher spending momentum, which is consistent with what you see in the earnings calls. Now, interesting about CloudFlare because the CEO of CloudFlare actually, and CloudFlare itself uses the term supercloud basically saying, "Hey, we're building a new type of internet." So what are your thoughts? Do you have additional information on CloudFlare, Erik that you want to share? I mean, you've seen them pop up. I mean this is a really interesting company that is pretty forward thinking and vocal about how it's disrupting the industry. >> Sure, we've been tracking 'em for a long time, and even from the disruption of just a traditional CDN where they took down Akamai and what they're doing. But for me, the definition of a true supercloud provider can't just be one instance. You have to have multiple. So it's not just the cloud, it's networking aspect on top of it, it's also security. And to me, CloudFlare is the only one that has all of it. That they actually have the ability to offer all of those things. Whereas you look at some of the other names, they're still piggybacking on the infrastructure or platform as a service of the hyperscalers. CloudFlare does not need to, they actually have the cloud, the networking, and the security all themselves. So to me that lends credibility to their own internal usage of that moniker Supercloud. And also, again, just what we're seeing right here that their net score is now creeping above AGCP really does state it. And then just one real last thing, one of the other things we do in our surveys is we track adoption and replacement reasoning. And when you look at Cloudflare's adoption rate, which is extremely high, it's based on technical capabilities, the breadth of their feature set, it's also based on what we call the ability to avoid stack alignment. So those are again, really supporting reasons that makes CloudFlare a top candidate for your moniker of supercloud. >> And they've also announced an object store (chuckles) and a database. So, you know, that's going to be, it takes a while as you well know, to get database adoption going, but you know, they're ambitious and going for it. All right, let's bring the chart back up, and I want to focus Darren in on the ecosystem now, and really, we've identified Snowflake and Databricks, it's always fun to talk about those guys, and there are a number of other, you know, data platforms out there, but we use those too as really proxies for leaders. We got a bunch of the backup guys, the data protection folks, Rubric, Cohesity, and Veeam. They're sort of in a cluster, although Rubric, you know, ahead of those guys in terms of spending momentum. And then VMware, Tanzu and Red Hat as sort of the cross cloud platform. But I want to focus, Darren, on the data piece of it. We're seeing a lot of activity around data sharing, governed data sharing. Databricks is using Delta Sharing as their sort of place, Snowflakes is sort of this walled garden like the app store. What are your thoughts on, you know, in the context of Supercloud, cross cloud capabilities for the data platforms? >> Yeah, good question. You know, I think Databricks is an interesting player because they sort of have made some interesting moves, with their Data Lakehouse technology. So they're trying to kind of complicate, or not complicate, they're trying to take away the complications of, you know, the downsides of data warehousing and data lakes, and trying to find that middle ground, where you have the benefits of a managed, governed, you know, data warehouse environment, but you have sort of the lower cost, you know, capability of a data lake. And so, you know, Databricks has become really attractive, especially by data scientists, right? We've been tracking them in the AI machine learning sector for quite some time here at ETR, attractive for a data scientist because it looks and acts like a lake, but can have some managed capabilities like a warehouse. So it's kind of the best of both worlds. So in some ways I think you've seen sort of a data science driver for the adoption of Databricks that has now become a little bit more mainstream across the business. Snowflake, maybe the other direction, you know, it's a cloud data warehouse that you know, is starting to expand its capabilities and add on new things like Streamlit is a good example in the analytics space, with apps. So you see these tools starting to branch and creep out a bit, but they offer that sort of neutrality, right? We heard one IT decision maker we recently interviewed that referred to Snowflake and Databricks as the quote unquote Switzerland of what they do. And so there's this desirability from an organization to find these tools that can solve the complex multi-headed use-case of data and analytics, which every business unit needs in different ways. And figure out a way to do that, an elegant way that's governed and centrally managed, that federated kind of best of both worlds that you get by bringing the data close to the business while having a central governed instance. So these tools are incredibly powerful and I think there's only going to be room for growth, for those two especially. I think they're going to expand and do different things and maybe, you know, join forces with others and a lot of the power of what they do well is trying to define these connections and find these partnerships with other vendors, and try to be seen as the nice add-on to your existing environment that plays nicely with everyone. So I think that's where those two tools are going, but they certainly fit this sort of label of, you know, trying to be that supercloud neutral, you know, layer that unites everything. >> Yeah, and if you bring the graphic back up, please, there's obviously big data plays in each of the cloud platforms, you know, Microsoft, big database player, AWS is, you know, 11, 12, 15, data stores. And of course, you know, BigQuery and other, you know, data platforms within Google. But you know, I'm not sure the big cloud guys are going to go hard after so-called supercloud, cross-cloud services. Although, we see Oracle getting in bed with Microsoft and Azure, with a database service that is cross-cloud, certainly Google with Anthos and you know, you never say never with with AWS. I guess what I would say guys, and I'll I'll leave you with this is that, you know, just like all players today are cloud players, I feel like anybody in the business or most companies are going to be so-called supercloud players. In other words, they're going to have a cross-cloud strategy, they're going to try to build connections if they're coming from on-prem like a Dell or an HPE, you know, or Pure or you know, many of these other companies, Cohesity is another one. They're going to try to connect to their on-premise states, of course, and create a consistent experience. It's natural that they're going to have sort of some consistency across clouds. You know, the big question is, what's that spectrum look like? I think on the one hand you're going to have some, you know, maybe some rudimentary, you know, instances of supercloud or maybe they just run on the individual clouds versus where Snowflake and others and even beyond that are trying to go with a single global instance, basically building out what I would think of as their own cloud, and importantly their own ecosystem. I'll give you guys the last thought. Maybe you could each give us, you know, closing thoughts. Maybe Darren, you could start and Erik, you could bring us home on just this entire topic, the future of cloud and data. >> Yeah, I mean I think, you know, two points to make on that is, this question of these, I guess what we'll call legacy on-prem players. These, mega vendors that have been around a long time, have big on-prem footprints and a lot of people have them for that reason. I think it's foolish to assume that a company, especially a large, mature, multinational company that's been around a long time, it's foolish to think that they can just uproot and leave on-premises entirely full scale. There will almost always be an on-prem footprint from any company that was not, you know, natively born in the cloud after 2010, right? I just don't think that's reasonable anytime soon. I think there's some industries that need on-prem, things like, you know, industrial manufacturing and so on. So I don't think on-prem is going away, and I think vendors that are going to, you know, go very cloud forward, very big on the cloud, if they neglect having at least decent connectors to on-prem legacy vendors, they're going to miss out. So I think that's something that these players need to keep in mind is that they continue to reach back to some of these players that have big footprints on-prem, and make sure that those integrations are seamless and work well, or else their customers will always have a multi-cloud or hybrid experience. And then I think a second point here about the future is, you know, we talk about the three big, you know, cloud providers, the Google, Microsoft, AWS as sort of the opposite of, or different from this new supercloud paradigm that's emerging. But I want to kind of point out that, they will always try to make a play to become that and I think, you know, we'll certainly see someone like Microsoft trying to expand their licensing and expand how they play in order to become that super cloud provider for folks. So also don't want to downplay them. I think you're going to see those three big players continue to move, and take over what players like CloudFlare are doing and try to, you know, cut them off before they get too big. So, keep an eye on them as well. >> Great points, I mean, I think you're right, the first point, if you're Dell, HPE, Cisco, IBM, your strategy should be to make your on-premise state as cloud-like as possible and you know, make those differences as minimal as possible. And you know, if you're a customer, then the business case is going to be low for you to move off of that. And I think you're right. I think the cloud guys, if this is a real problem, the cloud guys are going to play in there, and they're going to make some money at it. Erik, bring us home please. >> Yeah, I'm going to revert back to our data and this on the macro side. So to kind of support this concept of a supercloud right now, you know Dave, you and I know, we check overall spending and what we're seeing right now is total year spent is expected to only be 4.6%. We ended 2022 at 5% even though it began at almost eight and a half. So this is clearly declining and in that environment, we're seeing the top two strategies to reduce spend are actually vendor consolidation with 36% of our respondents saying they're actively seeking a way to reduce their number of vendors, and consolidate into one. That's obviously supporting a supercloud type of play. Number two is reducing excess cloud resources. So when I look at both of those combined, with a drop in the overall spending reduction, I think you're on the right thread here, Dave. You know, the overall macro view that we're seeing in the data supports this happening. And if I can real quick, couple of names we did not touch on that I do think deserve to be in this conversation, one is HashiCorp. HashiCorp is the number one player in our infrastructure sector, with a 56% net score. It does multiple things within infrastructure and it is completely agnostic to your environment. And if we're also speaking about something that's just a singular feature, we would look at Rubric for data, backup, storage, recovery. They're not going to offer you your full cloud or your networking of course, but if you are looking for your backup, recovery, and storage Rubric, also number one in that sector with a 53% net score. Two other names that deserve to be in this conversation as we watch it move and evolve. >> Great, thank you for bringing that up. Yeah, we had both of those guys in the chart and I failed to focus in on HashiCorp. And clearly a Supercloud enabler. All right guys, we got to go. Thank you so much for joining us, appreciate it. Let's keep this conversation going. >> Always enjoy talking to you Dave, thanks. >> Yeah, thanks for having us. >> All right, keep it right there for more content from Supercloud 2. This is Dave Valente for John Ferg and the entire Cube team. We'll be right back. (gentle synth music) (music fades)

>>Hello, everyone. Welcome to the cubes coverage here. New York city for AWS Amazon web services summit 2022. I'm John furrier, host of the cube with Dave ante. My co-host. We are breaking it down, getting an update on the ecosystem. As the GDP drops, inflations up gas prices up the enterprise continues to grow. We're seeing exceptional growth. We're here on the ground floor. Live at the Summit's packed house, 10,000 people. Eric Bradley's here. Chief STR at ETR, one of the premier enterprise research firms out there, partners with the cube and powers are breaking analysis that Dave does check that out as the hottest podcast in enterprise. Eric. Great to have you on the cube. Thanks for coming on. >>Thank you so much, John. I really appreciate the collaboration always. >>Yeah. Great stuff. Your data's amazing ETR folks watching check out ETR. They have a unique formula, very accurate. We love it. It's been moving the market. Congratulations. Let's talk about the market right now. This market is booming. Enterprise is the hottest thing, consumers kind of in the toilet. Okay. I said that all right, back out devices and, and, and consumer enterprise is still growing. And by the way, this first downturn, the history of the world where hyperscalers are on full pumping on all cylinders, which means they're still powering the revolution. >>Yeah, it's true. The hyperscalers were basically at this two sun system when Microsoft and an AWS first came around and everything was orbiting around it. And we're starting to see that sun cool off a little bit, but we're talking about a gradient here, right? When we say cool off, we're not talking to shutdown, it's still burning hot. That's for sure. And I can get it to some of the macro data in a minute, if that's all right. Or do you want me to go right? No, go go. Right. Yeah. So right now we just closed our most recent survey and that's macro and vendor specific. We had 1200 people talk to us on the macro side. And what we're seeing here is a cool down in spending. We originally had about 8.5% increase in budgets. That's cool down is 6.5 now, but I'll say with the doom and gloom and the headlines that we're seeing every day, 6.5% growth coming off of what we just did the last couple of years is still pretty fantastic as a backdrop. >>Okay. So you, you started to see John mentioned consumer. We saw that in Snowflake's earnings. For example, we, we certainly saw, you know, Walmart, other retailers, the FA Facebooks of the world where consumption was being dialed down, certain snowflake customers. Not necessarily, they didn't have mentioned any customers, but they were able to say, all right, we're gonna dial down, consumption this quarter, hold on until we saw some of that in snowflake results and other results. But at the same time, the rest of the industry is booming. But your data is showing softness within the fortune 500 for AWS, >>Not only AWS, but fortune 500 across the board. Okay. So going back to that larger macro data, the biggest drop in spending that we captured is fortune 500, which is surprising. But at the same time, these companies have a better purview into the economy. In general, they tend to see things further in advance. And we often remember they spend a lot of money, so they don't need to play catch up. They'll easily more easily be able to pump the brakes a little bit in the fortune 500. But to your point, when we get into the AWS data, the fortune 500 decrease seems to be hitting them a little bit more than it is Azure and GCP. I >>Mean, we're still talking about a huge business, right? >>I mean, they're catching up. I mean, Amazon has been transforming from owning the developer cloud startup cloud decade ago to really putting a dent on the enterprise as being number one cloud. And I still contest that they're number one by a long ways, but Azure kicking ass and catching up. Okay. You seeing people move to Azure, you got Charlie bell over there, Sean, by former Amazonians, Theresa Carlson, people are going over there, there there's lift over at Azure. >>There certainly is. >>Is there kinks in the arm or for AWS? There's >>A couple of kinks, but I think your point is really good. We need to take a second there. If you're talking about true pass or infrastructure is a service true cloud compute. I think AWS still is the powerhouse. And a lot of times the, the data gets a little muddied because Azure is really a hosted platform for applications. And you're not really sure where that line is drawn. And I think that's an important caveat to make, but based on the data, yes, we are seeing some kinks in the armor for AWS. Yes. Explain. So right now, a first of all caveat, 40% net score, which is our proprietary spending metric across the board. So we're not like raising any alarms here. It's still strong that said there are declines and there are declines pretty much across the board. The only spot we're not seeing a decline at all is in container, spend everything else is coming down specifically. We're seeing it come down in data analytics, data warehousing, and M I, which is a little bit of a concern because that, that rate of decline is not the same with Azure. >>Okay. So I gotta ask macro, I see the headwinds on the macro side, you pointed that out. Is there any insight into any underlying conditions that might be there on AWS or just a chronic kind of situational thing >>Right now? It seems situational. Other than that correlation between their big fortune 500, you know, audience and that being our biggest decline. The other aspect of the macro survey is we ask people, if you are planning to decline spend, how do you plan on doing it? And the number two answer is taking a look at our cloud spend and auditing it. So they're kind say, all right, you know, for the last 10 years it's been drunken, sail or spend, I >>Was gonna use that same line, you know, >>Cloud spend, just spend and we'll figure it out later, who cares? And then right now it's time to tighten the belts a little bit, >>But this is part of the allure of cloud at some point. Yeah. You, you could say, I'm gonna, I'm gonna dial it down. I'm gonna rein it in. So that's part of the reason why people go to the cloud. I want to, I wanna focus in on the data side of things and specifically the database. Let, just to give some context if, and correct me if I'm, I'm a little off here, but snowflake, which hot company, you know, on the planet, their net score was up around 80% consistently. It it's dropped down the last, you know, quarter, last survey to 60%. Yeah. So still highly, highly elevated, but that's relative to where Amazon is much larger, but you're saying they're coming down to the 40% level. Is that right? >>Yeah, they are. And I remember, you know, when I first started doing this 10 years ago, AWS at a 70%, you know, net score as well. So what's gonna happen over time is those adoptions are gonna get less and you're gonna see more flattening of spend, which ultimately is going to lower the score because we're looking for expansion rates. We wanna see adoption and increase. And when you see flattening a spend, it starts to contract a little bit. And you're right. Snowflake also was in the stratosphere that cooled off a little bit, but still, you know, very strong and AWS is coming down. I think the reason why it's so concerning is because a it's within the fortune 500 and their rate of decline is more than Azure right >>Now. Well, and, and one of the big trends you're seeing in database is this idea of converging function. In other words, bringing transaction and analytics right together at snowflake summit, they added the capability to handle transaction data, Mongo DB, which is largely mostly transactions added the capability in June to bring in analytic data. You see data bricks going from data engineering and data science now getting into snowflake space and analytics. So you're seeing that convergence Oracle is converging with my SQL heat wave and their core databases, couch base couch base is doing the same. Maria do virtually all these database companies are, are converging their platforms with the exception of AWS. AWS is still the right tool for the right job. So they've got Aurora, they've got RDS, they've got, you know, a dynamo DV, they've got red, they've got, you know, going on and on and on. And so the question everybody's asking is will that change? Will they start to sort of cross those swim lanes? We haven't seen it thus far. How is that affecting the data >>Performance? I mean, that's fantastic analysis. I think that's why we're seeing it because you have to be in the AWS ecosystem and they're really not playing nicely with others in the sandbox right now that now I will say, oh, Amazon's not playing nicely. Well, no, no. Simply to your point though, that there, the other ones are actually bringing in others at consolidating other different vendor types. And they're really not. You know, if you're in AWS, you need to stay within AWS. Now I will say their tools are fantastic. So if you do stay within AWS, they have a tool for every job they're advanced. And they're incredible. I think sometimes the complexity of their tools hurts them a little bit. Cause to your point earlier, AWS started as a developer-centric type of cloud. They have moved on to enterprise cloud and it's a little bit more business oriented, but their still roots are still DevOps friendly. And unless you're truly trained, AWS can be a little scary. >>So a common use case is I'm gonna be using Aurora for my transaction system and then I'm gonna ETL it into Redshift. Right. And, and I, now I have two data stores and I have two different sets of APIs and primitives two different teams of skills. And so that is probably causing some friction and complexity in the customer base that again, the question is, will they begin to expand some of those platforms to minimize some of that friction? >>Well, yeah, this is the question I wanted to ask on that point. So I've heard from people inside Amazon don't count out Redshift, we're making, we're catching up. I think that's my word, but they were kind of saying that right. Cuz Redshift is good, good database, but they're adding a lot more. So you got snowflake success. I think it's a little bit of a jealousy factor going on there within Redshift team, but then you got Azure synapse with the Synap product synapse. Yep. And then you got big query from Google big >>Query. Yep. >>What's the differentiation. What are you seeing for the data for the data warehouse or the data clouds that are out there for the customers? What's the data say, say to us? >>Yeah, unfortunately the data's showing that they're dropping a little bit whose day AWS is dropping a little bit now of their data products, Redshift and RDS are still the two highest of them, but they are starting to decline. Now I think one of the great data points that we have, we just closed the survey is we took a comparison of the legacy data. Now please forgive me for the word legacy. We're gonna anger a few people, but we Gotter data Oracle on-prem, we've got IBM. Some of those more legacy data warehouse type of names. When we look at our art survey takers that have them where their spend is going, that spends going to snowflake first, and then it's going to Google and then it's going to Microsoft Azure and, and AWS is actually declining in there. So when you talk about who's taking that legacy market share, it's not AWS right now. >>So legacy goes to legacy. So Microsoft, >>So, so let's work through in a little context because Redshift really was the first to take, you know, take the database to the cloud. And they did that by doing a one time license deal with par XL, which was an on-prem database. And then they re-engineered it, they did a fantastic job, but it was still engineered for on-prem. Then you along comes snowflake a couple years later and true cloud native, same thing with big query. Yep. True cloud native architecture. So they get a lot of props. Now what, what Amazon did, they took a page outta of the snowflake, for example, separating compute from storage. Now of course what's what, what Amazon did is actually not really completely separating like snowflake did they couldn't because of the architecture, they created a tearing system that you could dial down the compute. So little nuances like that. I understand. But at the end of the day, what we're seeing from snowflake is the gathering of an ecosystem in this true data cloud, bringing in different data types, they got to the public markets, data bricks was not able to get to the public markets. Yeah. And think is, is struggling >>And a 25 billion evaluation. >>Right. And so that's, that's gonna be dialed down, struggling somewhat from a go to market standpoint where snowflake has no troubles from a go to market. They are the masters at go to market. And so now they've got momentum. We talked to Frank sluman at the snowflake. He basically said, I'm not taking the foot off the gas, no way. Yeah. We, few of our large, you know, consumer customers dialed things down, but we're going balls to the >>Wall. Well, if you look at their show before you get in the numbers, you look at the two shows. Snowflake had their summit in person in Vegas. Data bricks has had their show in San Francisco. And if you compare the two shows, it's clear, who's winning snowflake is blew away from a, from a market standpoint. And we were at snowflake, but we weren't at data bricks, but there was really nothing online. I heard from sources that it was like less than 3000 people. So >>Snowflake was 1900 people in 2019, nearly 10,000. Yeah. In 2020, >>It's gonna be fun to sort of track that as a, as an odd caveat to say, okay, let's see what that growth is. Because in fairness, data, bricks, you know, a little bit younger, Snowflake's had a couple more years. So I'd be curious to see where they are. Their, their Lakehouse paradigm is interesting. >>Yeah. And I think it's >>And their product first company, yes. Their go to market might be a little bit weak from our analysis, but that, but they'll figure it out. >>CEO's pretty smart. But I think it's worth pointing out. It's like two different philosophies, right? It is. Snowflake is come into our data cloud. That's their proprietary environment. They're the, they think of the iPhone, right? End to end. We, we guarantee it's all gonna work. And we're in control. Snowflake is like, Hey, open source, no, bring in data bricks. I mean data bricks, open source, bring in this tool that too, now you are seeing snowflake capitulate a little bit. They announce, for instance, Apache iceberg support at their, at the snowflake summit. So they're tipping their cap to open source. But at the end of the day, they're gonna market and sell the fact that it's gonna run better in native snowflake. Whereas data bricks, they're coming at it from much more of an open source, a mantra. So that's gonna, you know, we'll see who look at, you had windows and you had apple, >>You got, they both want, you got Cal and you got Stanford. >>They both >>Consider, I don't think it's actually there yet. I, I find the more interesting dynamic right now is between AWS and snowflake. It's really a fun tit for tat, right? I mean, AWS has the S three and then, you know, snowflake comes right on top of it and announces R two, we're gonna do one letter, one number better than you. They just seem to have this really interesting dynamic. And I, and it is SLT and no one's betting against him. I mean, this guy's fantastic. So, and he hasn't used his war chest yet. He's still sitting on all that money that he raised to your point, that data bricks five, their timing just was a little off >>5 billion in >>Capital when Slootman hasn't used that money yet. So what's he gonna do? What can he do when he turns that on? He finds the right. >>They're making some acquisitions. They did the stream lit acquisitions stream. >>Fantastic >>Problem. With data bricks, their valuation is underwater. Yes. So they're recruiting and their MNAs. Yes. In the toilet, they cannot make the moves because they don't have the currency until they refactor the multiple, let the, this market settle. I I'm, I'm really nervous that they have to over factor the >>Valuation. Having said that to your point, Eric, the lake house architecture is definitely gaining traction. When you talk to practitioners, they're all saying, yeah, we're building data lakes, we're building lake houses. You know, it's a much, much smaller market than the enterprise data warehouse. But nonetheless, when you talk to practitioners that are actually doing things like self serve data, they're building data lakes and you know, snow. I mean, data bricks is right there. And as a clear leader in, in ML and AI and they're ahead of snowflake, right. >>And I was gonna say, that's the thing with data bricks. You know, you're getting that analytics at M I built into it. >>You know, what's ironic is I remember talking to Matt Carroll, who's CEO of auDA like four or five years ago. He came into the office in ma bro. And we were in temporary space and we were talking about how there's this new workload emerging, which combines AWS for cloud infrastructure, snowflake for the simple data warehouse and data bricks for the ML AI, and then all now all of a sudden you see data bricks yeah. And snowflake going at it. I think, you know, to your point about the competition between AWS and snowflake, here's what I think, I think the Redshift team is, you know, doesn't like snowflake, right. But I think the EC two team loves it. Loves it. Exactly. So, so I think snowflake is driving a lot of, >>Yeah. To John's point, there is plenty to go around. And I think I saw just the other day, I saw somebody say less than 40% of true global 2000 organizations believe that they're at real time data analytics right now. They're not really there yet. Yeah. Think about how much runway is left and how many tools you need to get to real time streaming use cases. It's complex. It's not easy. >>It's gonna be a product value market to me, snowflake in data bricks. They're not going away. Right. They're winning architectures. Yeah. In the cloud, what data bricks did would spark and took over the Haddo market. Yeah. To your point. Now that big data, market's got two players, in my opinion, snow flicking data, bricks converging. Well, Redshift is sitting there behind the curtain, their wild card. Yeah. They're wild card, Dave. >>Okay. I'm gonna give one more wild card, which is the edge. Sure. Okay. And that's something that when you talk about real time analytics and AI referencing at the edge, there aren't a lot of database companies in a position to do that. You know, Amazon trying to put outposts out there. I think it runs RDS. I don't think it runs any other database. Right. Snowflake really doesn't have a strong edge strategy when I'm talking the far edge, the tiny edge. >>I think, I think that's gonna be HPE or Dell's gonna own the outpost market. >>I think you're right. I'll come back to that. Couch base is an interesting company to watch with Capella Mongo. DB really doesn't have a far edge strategy at this point, but couch base does. And that's one to watch. They're doing some really interesting things there. And I think >>That, but they have to leapfrog bongo in my >>Opinion. Yeah. But there's a new architecture emerging at the edge and it's gonna take a number of years to develop, but it could eventually from an economic standpoint, seep back into the enterprise arm base, low end, take a look at what couch base is >>Doing. They hired an Amazon guard system. They have to leapfrog though. They need to, they can't incrementally who's they who >>Couch >>Base needs to needs to make a big move in >>Leap frog. Well, think they're trying to, that's what Capella is all about was not only, you know, their version of Atlas bringing to the cloud couch base, but it's also stretching it out to the edge and bringing converged database analytics >>Real quick on the numbers. Any data on CloudFlare, >>I was, I've been sitting here trying to get the word CloudFlare out my mouth the whole time you guys were talking, >>Is this another that's innovated in the ecosystem. So >>Platform, it was really simple for them early on, right? They're gonna get that edge network out there and they're gonna steal share from Akamai. Then they started doing exactly what Akamai did. We're gonna start rolling out some security. Their security is fantastic. Maybe some practitioners are saying a little bit too much, cuz they're not focused on one thing or another, but they are doing extremely well. And now they're out there in the cloud as well. You >>Got S3 compare. They got two, they got an S3 competitor. >>Exactly. So when I'm listening to you guys talk about, you know, a, a couch base I'm like, wow, those two would just be an absolute fantastic, you know, combination between the two of them. You mean >>CloudFlare >>Couch base. Yeah. >>I mean you got S3 alternative, right? You got a Mongo alternative basically in my >>Opinion. And you're going and you got the edge and you got the edge >>Network with security security, interesting dynamic. This brings up the super cloud date. I wanna talk about Supercloud because we're seeing a trend on we're reporting this since last year that basically people don't have to spend the CapEx to be cloud scale. And you're seeing Amazon enable that, but snowflake has become a super cloud. They're on AWS. Now they're on Azure. Why not tan expansion expand the market? Why not get that? And then it'll be on Google next, all these marketplaces. So the emergence of this super cloud, and then the ability to make that across a substrate across multiple clouds is a strategy we're seeing. What do you, what do you think? >>Well, honestly, I'm gonna be really Frank here. The, everything I know about the super cloud I know from this guy. So I've been following his lead on this and I'm looking forward to you guys doing that conference and that summit coming up from a data perspective. I think what you're saying is spot on though, cuz those are the areas we're seeing expansion in without a doubt. >>I think, you know, when you talk about things like super cloud and you talk about things like metaverse, there's, there's a, there, there look every 15 or 20 years or so this industry reinvents itself and a new disruption comes out and you've got the internet, you've got the cloud, you've got an AI and VR layer. You've got, you've got machine intelligence. You've got now gaming. There's a new matrix, emerging, super cloud. Metaverse there's something happening out there here. That's not just your, your father's SAS or is or pass. Well, >>No, it's also the spend too. Right? So if I'm a company like say capital one or Goldman Sachs, my it spend has traditionally been massive every year. Yes. It's basically like tons of CapEx comes the cloud. It's an operating expense. Wait a minute, Amazon has all the CapEx. So I'm not gonna dial down my budget. I want a competitive advantage. So next thing they know they have a super cloud by default because they just pivoted their, it spend into new capabilities that they then can sell to the market in FinTech makes total sense. >>Right? They're building out a digital platform >>That would, that was not possible. Pre-cloud >>No, it wasn't cause you weren't gonna go put all that money into CapEx expenditure to build that out. Not knowing whether or not the market was there, but the scalability, the ability to spend, reduce and be flexible with it really changes that paradigm entire. >>So we're looking at this market now thinking about, okay, it might be Greenfield in every vertical. It might have a power law where you have a head of the long tail. That's a player like a capital one, an insurance. It could be Liberty mutual or mass mutual that has so much it and capital that they're now gonna scale it into a super cloud >>And they have data >>And they have the data tools >>And the tools. And they're gonna bring that to their constituents. Yes, yes. And scale it using >>Cloud. So that means they can then service the entire vertical as a service provider. >>And the industry cloud is becoming bigger and bigger and bigger. I mean, that's really a way that people are delivering to market. So >>Remember in the early days of cloud, all the banks thought they could build their own cloud. Yeah. Yep. Well actually it's come full circle. They're like, we can actually build a cloud on top of the cloud. >>Right. And by the way, they can have a private cloud in their super cloud. Exactly. >>And you know, it's interesting cause we're talking about financial services insurance, all the people we know spend money in our macro survey. Do you know the, the sector that's spending the most right now? It's gonna shock you energy utilities. Oh yeah. I was gonna, the energy utilities industry right now is the one spending the most money I saw largely cuz they're playing ketchup. But also because they don't have these type of things for their consumers, they need the consumer app. They need to be able to do that delivery. They need to be able to do metrics. And they're the they're, they're the one spending right >>Now it's an arms race, but the, the vector shifts to value creation. So >>It's it just goes back to your post when it was a 2012, the trillion dollar baby. Yeah. It's a multi-trillion dollar baby that they, >>The world was going my chassis post on Forbes, headline trillion dollar baby 2012. You know, I should add it's happening. That's >>On the end. Yeah, exactly. >>Trillions of babies, Eric. Great to have you on the key. >>Thank you so much guys. >>Great to bring the data. Thanks for sharing. Check out ETR. If you're into the enterprise, want to know what's going on. They have a unique approach, very accurate in their survey data. They got a great market basket of, of, of, of, of data questions and people and community. Check it out. Thanks for coming on and sharing with. >>Thank you guys. Always enjoy. >>We'll be back with more coverage here in the cube in New York city live at summit 22. I'm John fur with Dave ante. We'll be right back.

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> In our 2020 predictions post, we said that organizations would begin to operationalize their digital transformation experiments and POCs. We also said that based on spending data that cybersecurity companies like CrowdStrike and Okta were poised to rise above the rest in 2020, and we even said the S&P 500 would surpass 3,700 this year. Little did we know that we'd have a pandemic that would make these predictions a virtual lock, and, of course, COVID did blow us out of the water in some other areas, like our prediction that IT spending would increase plus 4% in 2020, when in reality, we have a dropping by 4%. We made a number of other calls that did pretty well, but I'll let you review last year's predictions at your leisure to see how we did. Hello, everyone. This is Dave Vellante and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. Erik Bradley of ETR is joining me again for this Breaking Analysis, and we're going to lay out our top picks for 2021. Erik, great to see you. Welcome back. Happy to have you on theCUBE, my friend. >> Always great to see you too, Dave. I'm excited about these picks this year. >> Well, let's get right into it. Let's bring up the first prediction here. Tech spending will rebound in 2021. We expect a 4% midpoint increase next year in spending. Erik, there are a number of factors that really support this prediction, which of course is based on ETR's most recent survey work, and we've listed a number of them here in this slide. I wonder if we can talk about that a little bit, the pace of the vaccine rollout. I've called this a forced march to COVID, but I can see people doubling down on things that are working. Productivity improvements are going to go back into the business. People are going to come back to the headquarters and that maybe is going to spur infrastructure on some pent-up demand, and work from home, we're going to talk about that. What are your thoughts on this prediction? >> Well, first of all, you weren't wrong last year. You were just, (laughs) you were just delayed. Just delayed a little bit, that's all. No, very much so. Early on, just three months ago, we were not seeing this optimism. The most recent survey, however, is capturing 4%. I truly believe that still might be a little bit mild. I think it can go even higher, and that's going to be driven by some of the things you've said about. This is a year where a lot of spending was paused on machine learning, on automation, on some of these projects that had to be stopped because of what we all went through. Right now, that is not a nice to have, it's a must have, and that spending is going quickly. There's a rapid pace on that spending, so I do think that's going to push it and, of course, security. We're going to get to this later on so I don't want to bury the lede, but with what's happening right now, every CISO I speak to is not panicked, but they are concerned and there will definitely be increased security spending that might push this 4% even higher. >> Yeah, and as we've reported as well, the survey data shows that there's less freezing of IT, there are fewer layoffs, there's more hiring, we're accelerating IT deployments, so that, I think, 34% last survey, 34% of organizations are accelerating IT deployments over the next three months, so that's great news. >> And also your point too about hiring. I was remiss in not bringing that up because we had layoffs and we had freezes on hiring. Both of that is stopping. As you know, as more head count comes in, whether that be from home or whether that be in your headquarters, both of those require support and require spending. >> All right, let's bring up the next prediction. Remote worker trends are going to become fossilized, settling in at an average of 34% by year-end 2021. Now, I love this chart, you guys. It's been amazingly consistent to me, Erik. We're showing data here from ETR's latest COVID survey. So it shows that prior to the pandemic, about 15 to 16% of employees on average worked remotely. That jumped to where we are today and well into the 70s, and we're going to stay close to that, according to the ETR data, in the first half of 2021, but by the end of the year, it's going to settle in at around 34%. Erik, that's double the pre-pandemic numbers and that's been consistent in your surveys over the past six month, and even within the sub-samples. >> Yeah, super surprised by the consistency, Dave. You're right about that. We were expecting the most recent data to kind of come down, right? We see the vaccines being rolled out. We kind of thought that that number would shift, but it hasn't, it has been dead consistent, and that's just from the data perspective. What we're hearing from the interviews and the feedback is that's not going to change, it really isn't, and there's a main reason for that. Productivity is up, and we'll talk about that in a second, but if you have productivity up and you have employees happy, they're not commuting, they're working more, they're working effectively, there is no reason to rush. And now imagine if you're a company that's trying to hire the best talent and attract the best talent but you're also the only company telling them where they have to live. I mean, good luck with that, right? So even if a few of them decide to make this permanent, that's something where you're going to really have to follow suit to attract talent. >> Yeah, so let's talk about that. Productivity leads us to our next prediction. We can bring that up. Number three is productivity increases are going to lead organizations to double down on the successes of 2020 and productivity apps are going to benefit. Now, of course, I'm always careful to cautious to interpret when you ask somebody by how much did productivity increase. It's a very hard thing to estimate depending on how you measure it. Is it revenue per employee? Is it profit? But nonetheless, the vast majority of people that we talk to are seeing productivity is going up. The productivity apps are really the winners here. Who do you see, Erik, as really benefiting from this trend? This year we saw Zoom, Teams, even Webex benefit, but how do you see this playing out in 2021? >> Well, first of all, the real beneficiaries are the companies themselves because they are getting more productivity, and our data is not only showing more productivity, but that's continuing to increase over time, so that's number one. But you're 100% right that the reason that's happening is because of the support of the applications and what would have been put in place. Now, what we do expect to see here, early on it was a rising tide lifted all boats, even Citrix got pulled up, but over time you realize Citrix is really just about legacy applications. Maybe that's not really the virtualization platform we need or maybe we just don't want to go that route at all. So the ones that we think are going to win longer term are part of this paradigm shift. The easiest one to put out as example is DocuSign. Nobody is going to travel and sit in an office to sign a paper ever again. It's not happening. I don't care if you go back to the office or you go back to headquarters. This is a paradigm shift that is not temporary. It is permanent. Another one that we're seeing is Smartsheet. Early on it started in. I was a little concerned about it 'cause it was a shadow IT type of a company where it was just spreading and spreading and spreading. It's turned out that this, the data on Smartsheet is continuing to be strong. It's an effective tool for project management when you're remotely working, so that's another one I don't see changing anytime. The other one I would call out would be Twilio. Slightly different, yes. It's more about the customer experience, but when you look at how many brick and mortar or how many in-person transactions have moved online and will stay there, companies like Twilio that support that customer experience, I'll throw out a Qualtrics out there as well, not a name we hear about a lot, but that customer experience software is a name that needs to be watched going forward. >> What do you think's going to happen to Zoom and Teams? Certainly Zoom just escalated this year, a huge ascendancy, and Teams I look at a little differently 'cause it's not just video conferencing, and both have done really, really well. How do you interpret the data that you're seeing there? >> There's no way around it, our data is decelerating quickly, really quickly. We were kind of bullish when Zoom first came out on the IPO prospects. It did very well. Obviously what happened in this remote shift turned them into an absolute overnight huge success. I don't see that continuing going forward, and there's a reason. What we're seeing and hearing from our feedback interviews is that now that people recognize this isn't temporary and they're not scrambling and they need to set up for permanency, they're going to consolidate their spend. They don't need to have Teams and Zoom. It's not necessary. They will consolidate where they can. There's always going to be the players that are going to choose Slack and Zoom 'cause they don't want to be on Microsoft architecture. That's fine, but you and I both know that the majority of large enterprises have Microsoft already. It's bundled in in pricing. I just don't see it happening. There's going to be M&A out there, which we can talk about again soon, so maybe Zoom, just like Slack, gets to a point where somebody thinks it's worthwhile, but there's a lot of other video conferencing out there. They're trying to push their telephony. They're trying to push their mobile solutions. There's a lot of companies out there doing it, so we'll see, but the current market cap does not seem to make sense in a permanent remote work situation. >> I think I'm inferring Teams is a little different because it's Microsoft. They've got this huge software estate they can leverage. They can bundle. Now, it's going to be interesting to see how and if Zoom can then expand its TAM, use its recent largesse to really enter potentially new markets. >> It will be, but listen, just the other day there was another headline that one of Zoom's executives out in China was actually blocking content as per directed by the Chinese government. Those are the kind of headlines that just really just get a little bit difficult when you're running a true enterprise size. Zoom is wonderful in the consumer space, but what I do is I research enterprise technology, and it's going to be really, really difficult to make inroads there with Microsoft. >> Yep. I agree. Okay, let's bring up number four, prediction number four. Permanent shifts in CISO strategies lead to measurable share shifts in network security. So the remote work sort of hyper-pivot, we'll call it, it's definitely exposed us. We've seen recent breaches that underscore the need for change. They've been well-publicized. We've talked a lot about identity access management, cloud security, endpoint security, and so as a result, we've seen the upstarts, and just a couple that we called, CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler has really benefited and we expect them to continue to show consistent growth, some well over 50% revenue growth. Erik, you really follow this space closely. You've been focused on microsegmentation and other, some of the big players. What are your thoughts here? >> Yeah, first of all, security, number one in spending overall when we started looking and asking people what their priority is going to be. That's not changing, and that was before the SolarWinds breach. I just had a great interview today with a CISO of a global hospitality enterprise to really talk about the implications of this. It is real. Him and his peers are not panicking but pretty close, is the way he put it, so there is spend happening. So first of all, to your point, continued on Okta, continued on identity access. See no reason why that changes. CrowdStrike, continue. What this is going to do is bring in some new areas, like we just mentioned, in network segmentation. Illumio is a pure play in that name that doesn't have a lot of citations, but I have watched over the last week their net spending score go from about 30 to 60%, so I am watching in real time, as this data comes in in the later part of our survey, that it's really happening Forescout is another one that's in there. We're seeing some of the zero trust names really picking up in the last week. Now, to talk about some of the more established names, yeah, Cisco plays in this space and we can talk about Cisco and what they're doing in security forever. They're really reinventing themselves and doing a great job. Palo Alto was in this space as well, but I do believe that network and microsegmentation is going to be something that's going to continue. The other one I'm going to throw out that I'm hearing a lot about lately is user behavior analytics. People need to be able to watch the trends, compare them to past trends, and catch something sooner. Varonis is a name in that space that we're seeing get a lot of adoptions right now. It's early trend, but based on our data, Varonis is a name to watch in that area as well. >> Yeah, and you mentioned Cisco transitioning, reinventing themselves toward a SaaS player. Their subscription, Cisco's security business is a real bright spot for them. Palo Alto, every time I sit in on a VENN, which is ETR's proprietary roundtable, the CISOs, they love Palo Alto. They want to work, many of them, anyway, want to work with Palo Alto. They see them as a thought leader. They seem to be getting their cloud act together. Fortinet has been doing a pretty good job there and especially for mid-market. So we're going to see this equilibrium, best of breed versus the big portfolio companies, and I think 2021 sets up as a really interesting battle for those guys with momentum and those guys with big portfolios. >> I completely agree and you nailed it again. Palo Alto has this perception that they're really thought leaders in the space and people want to work with them, but let's not rule Cisco out. They have a much, much bigger market cap. They are really good at acquisitions. In the past, they maybe didn't integrate them as well, but it seems like they're getting their act together on that. And they're pushing now what they call SecureX, which is sort of like their own full-on platform in the cloud, and they're starting to market that, I'm starting to hear more about it, and I do think Cisco is really changing people's perception of them. We shall see going forward because in the last year, you're 100% right, Palo Alto definitely got a little bit more of the sentiment, of positive sentiment. Now, let's also realize, and we'll talk about this again in a bit, there's a lot of players out there. There will probably be continued consolidation in the security space, that we'll see what happens, but it's an area where spending is increasing, there is a lot of vendors out there to play with, and I do believe we'll see consolidation in that space. >> Yes. No question. A highly fragmented business. A lack of skills is a real challenge. Automation is a big watch word and so I would expect, which brings us, Erik, to prediction number five. Can be hard to do prediction posts without talking about M&A. We see the trend toward increased tech spending driving more IPOs, SPACs and M&A. We've seen some pretty amazing liquidity events this year. Snowflake, obviously a big one. Airbnb, DoorDash, outside of our enterprise tech but still notable. Palantir, JFrog, number of others. UiPath just filed confidentially and their CEO said, "Over the next 12 to 18 months, I would think Automation Anywhere is going to follow suit at some point." Hashicorp was a company we called out in our 2020 predictions as one to watch along with Snowflake and some others, and, Erik, we've seen some real shifts in observability. The ELK Stack gaining prominence with Elastic, ChaosSearch just raised 40 million, and everybody's going after 5G. Lots of M&A opportunities. What are your thoughts? >> I think if we're going to make this a prediction show, I'm going to say that was a great year, but we're going to even have a better year next year. There is a lot of cash on the balance sheet. There are low interest rates. There is a lot of spending momentum in enterprise IT. The three of those set up for a perfect storm of more liquidity events, whether it be continued IPOs, whether it could be M&A, I do expect that to continue. You mentioned a lot of the names. I think you're 100% right. Another one I would throw out there in that observability space, is it's Grafana along with the ELK Stack is really making changes to some of the pure plays in that area. I've been pretty vocal about how I thought Splunk was having some problems. They've already made three acquisitions. They are trying really hard to get back up and keep that growth trajectory and be the great company they always have been, so I think the observability area is certainly one. We have a lot of names in that space that could be taken out. The other one that wasn't mentioned, however, that I'd like to mention is more in the CDN area. Akamai being the grandfather there, and we'll get into it a little bit too, but CloudFlare has a huge market cap, Fastly running a little bit behind that, and then there's Limelight, and there's a few startups in that space and the CDN is really changing. It's not about content delivery as much as it is about edge compute these days, and they would be a real easy takeout for one of these large market cap names that need to get into that spot. >> That's a great call. All right, let's bring up number six, and this is one that's near and dear to my heart. It's more of a longer-term prediction and that prediction is in the 2020s, 75% of large organizations are going to re-architect their big data platforms, and the premise here is we're seeing a rapid shift to cloud database and cross-cloud data sharing and automated governance. And the prediction is that because big data platforms are fundamentally flawed and are not going to be corrected by incremental improvements in data lakes and data warehouses and data hubs, we're going to see a shift toward a domain-centric ownership of the data pipeline where data teams are going to be organized around data product or data service builders and embedded into lines of business. And in this scenario, the technology details and complexity will become abstracted. You've got hyper-specialized data teams today. They serve multiple business owners. There's no domain context. Different data agendas. Those, we think, are going to be subsumed within the business lines, and in the future, the primary metric is going to shift from the cost and the quality of the big data platform outputs to the time it takes to go from idea to revenue generation, and this change is going to take four to five years to coalesce, but it's going to begin in earnest in 2021. Erik, anything you'd add to this? >> I'm going to let you kind of own that one 'cause I completely agree, and for all the listeners out there, that was Dave's original thought and I think it's fantastic and I want to get behind it. One of the things I will say to support that is big data analytics, which is what people are calling it because they got over the hype of machine learning, they're sick of vendors saying machine learning, and I'm hearing more and more people just talk about it as we need big data analytics, we need 'em at the edge, we need 'em faster, we need 'em in real time. That's happening, and what we're seeing more is this is happening with vendor-agnostic tools. This isn't just AWS-aligned. This isn't just GCP-aligned or Azure-aligned. The winners are the Snowflakes. The winners are the Databricks. The winners are the ones that are allowing this interoperability, the portability, which fully supports what you're saying. And then the only other comment I would make, which I really like about your prediction, is about the lines of business owning it 'cause I think this is even bigger. Right now, we track IT spending through the CIO, through the CTO, through IT in general. IT spending is actually becoming more diversified. IT spending is coming under the purview of marketing, it's coming under the purview of sales, so we're seeing more and more IT spending, but it's happening with the business user or the business lines and obviously data first, so I think you're 100% right. >> Yeah, and if you think about it, we've contextualized our operational systems, whether it's the CRM or the supply chain, the logistics, the business lines own their respective data. It's not true for the analytics systems, and we talked about Snowflake and Databricks. I actually see these two companies who were sort of birds of a feather in the early days together, applying Databricks machine learning on top of Snowflake, I actually see them going in diverging places. I see Databricks trying to improve on the data lake. I see Snowflake trying to reinvent the concept of data warehouse to this global mesh, and it's going to be really interesting to see how that shakes out. The data behind Snowflake, obviously very, very exciting. >> Yeah, it's just, real quickly to add on that if we have time, Dave. >> Yeah, sure. >> We all know the valuation of Snowflake, one of the most incredible IPOs I've seen in a long time. The data still supports it. It still supports that growth. Unfortunately for Databricks, their IPO has been a little bit more volatile. If you look at their stock chart every time they report, it's got a little bit of a roller coaster ride going on, and our most recent data for Databricks is actually decelerating, so again, I'm going to use the caveat that we only have about 950 survey responses in. We'll probably get that up to 1,300 or so, so it's not done yet, but right now we are putting Databricks into a category where we're seeing it decelerate a little bit, which is surprising for a company that's just right out of the gate. >> Well, it's interesting because I do see Databricks as more incremental on data lakes and I see Snowflake as more transformative, so at least from a vision standpoint, we'll see if they can execute on that. All right, number seven, let's bring up number seven. This is talking about the cloud, hybrid cloud, multi-cloud. The battle to define hybrid and multi-cloud is going to escalate in 2021. It's already started and it's going to create bifurcated CIO strategies. And, Erik, spending data clearly shows that cloud is continuing its steady margin share gains relative to on-prem, but the definitions of the cloud, they're shifting. Just a couple of years ago, AWS, they never talk about hybrid, just like they don't talk about multi-cloud today, yet AWS continues now to push into on-prem. They treat on-prem as just another node at the edge and they continue to win in the marketplace despite their slower growth rates. Still, they're so large now. 45 billion or so this year. The data is mixed. This ETR data shows that just under 50% of buyers are consolidating workloads, and then a similar, in the cloud workloads, and a similar percentage of customers are spreading evenly across clouds, so really interesting dynamic there. Erik, how do you see it shaking out? >> Yeah, the data is interesting here, and I would actually state that overall spend on the cloud is actually flat from last year, so we're not seeing a huge increase in spend, and coupled with that, we're seeing that the overall market share, which means the amount of responses within our survey, is increasing, certainly increasing. So cloud usage is increasing, but it's happening over an even spectrum. There's no clear winner of that market share increase. So they really, according to our data, the multi-cloud approach is happening and not one particular winner over another. That's just from the data perspective that various do point on AWS. Let's be honest, when they first started, they wanted all the data. They just want to take it from on-prem, put it in their data center. They wanted all of it. They never were interested in actually having interoperability. Then you look at an approach like Google. Google was always about the technology, but not necessarily about the enterprise customer. They come out with Anthos which is allowing you to have interoperability in more cloud. They're not nearly as big, but their growth rate is much higher. Law of numbers, of course. But it really is interesting to see how these cloud players are going to approach this because multi-cloud is happening whether they like it or not. >> Well, I'm glad you brought up multi-cloud in a context of what the data's showing 'cause I would agree we're, and particularly two areas that I would call out in ETR data, VMware Cloud on AWS as well as VM Cloud Foundation are showing real momentum and also OpenStack from Red Hat is showing real progress here and they're making moves. They're putting great solutions inside of AWS, doing some stuff on bare metal, and it's interesting to see. VMware, basically it's the VMware stack. They want to put that everywhere. Whereas Red Hat, similarly, but Red Hat has the developer angle. They're trying to infuse Red Hat in throughout everybody's stack, and so I think Red Hat is going to be really interesting to, especially to the extent that IBM keeps them, sort of lets them do their own thing and doesn't kind of pollute them. So, so far so good there. >> Yeah, I agree with that. I think you brought up the good point about it being developer-friendly. It's a real option as people start kicking a little bit more of new, different developer ways and containers are growing, growing more. They're not testing anymore, but they're real workloads. It is a stack that you could really use. Now, what I would say to caveat that though is I'm not seeing any net new business go to IBM Red Hat. If you were already aligned with that, then yes, you got to love these new tools they're giving you to play with, but I don't see anyone moving to them that wasn't already net new there and I would say the same thing with VMware. Listen, they have a great entrenched base. The longer they can kick that can down the road, that's fantastic, but I don't see net new customers coming onto VMware because of their alignment with AWS. >> Great, thank you for that. That's a good nuance. Number eight, cloud, containers, AI and ML and automation are going to lead 2021 spending velocity, so really is those are the kind of the big four, cloud, containers, AI, automation, And, Erik, this next one's a bit nuanced and it supports our first prediction of a rebound in tech spending next year. We're seeing cloud, containers, AI and automation, in the form of RPA especially, as the areas with the highest net scores or spending momentum, but we put an asterisk around the cloud because you can see in this inserted graphic, which again is preliminary 'cause the survey's still out in the field and it's just a little tidbit here, but cloud is not only above that 40% line of net score, but it has one of the higher sector market shares. Now, as you said, earlier you made a comment that you're not necessarily seeing the kind of growth that you saw before, but it's from a very, very large base. Virtually every sector in the ETR dataset with the exception of outsourcing and IT consulting is seeing meaningful upward spending momentum, and even those two, we're seeing some positive signs. So again, with what we talked about before, with the freezing of the IT projects starting to thaw, things are looking much, much better for 2021. >> I'd agree with that. I'm going to make two quick comments on that, one on the machine learning automation. Without a doubt, that's where we're seeing a lot of the increase right now, and I've had a multiple number of people reach out or in my interviews say to me, "This is very simple. These projects were slated to happen in 2020 and they got paused. It's as simple as that. The business needs to have more machine learning, big data analytics, and it needs to have more automation. This has just been paused and now it's coming back and it's coming back rapidly." Another comment, I'm actually going to post an article on LinkedIn as soon as we're done here. I did an interview with the lead technology director, automation director from Disney, and this guy obviously has a big budget and he was basically saying UiPath and Automation Anywhere dominate RPA, and that on top of it, the COVID crisis greatly accelerated automation, greatly accelerated it because it had to happen, we needed to find a way to get rid of these mundane tasks, we had to put them into real workloads. And another aspect you don't think about, a lot of times with automation, there's people, employees that really have friction. They don't want to adopt it. That went away. So COVID really pushed automation, so we're going to see that happening in machine learning and automation without a doubt. And now for a fun prediction real quick. You brought up the IT outsourcing and consulting. This might be a little bit more out there, the dark horse, but based on our data and what we're seeing and the COVID information about, you said about new projects being unwrapped, new hiring happening, we really do believe that this might be the bottom on IT outsourcing and consulting. >> Great, thank you for that, and then that brings us to number nine here. The automation mandate is accelerating and it will continue to accelerate in 2021. Now, you may say, "Okay, well, this is a lay-up," but not necessarily. UiPath and Automation Anywhere go public and Microsoft remains a threat. Look, UiPath, I've said UiPath and Automation Anywhere, if they were ready to go public, they probably would have already this year, so I think they're still trying to get their proverbial act together, so this is not necessarily a lay-up for them from an operational standpoint. They probably got some things to still clean up, but I think they're going to really try to go for it. If the markets stay positive and tech spending continues to go forward, I think we can see that. And I would say this, automation is going mainstream. The benefits of taking simple RPA tools to automate mundane tasks with software bots, it's both awakened organizations to the possibilities of automation, and combined with COVID, it's caused them to get serious about automation. And we think 2021, we're going to see organizations go beyond implementing point tools, they're going to use the pandemic to restructure their entire business. Erik, how do you see it, and what are the big players like Microsoft that have entered the market? What kind of impact do you see them having? >> Yeah, completely agree with you. This is a year where we go from small workloads into real deployment, and those two are the leader. In our data, UiPath by far the clear leader. We are seeing a lot of adoptions on Automation Anywhere, so they're getting some market sentiment. People are realizing, starting to actually adopt them. And by far, the number one is Microsoft Power Automate. Now, again, we have to be careful because we know Microsoft is entrenched everywhere. We know that they are good at bundling, so if I'm in charge of automation for my enterprise and I'm already a Microsoft customer, I'm going to use it. That doesn't mean it's the best tool to use for the right job. From what I've heard from people, each of these have a certain area where they are better. Some can get more in depth and do heavier lifting. Some are better at doing a lot of projects at once but not in depth, so we're going to see this play out. Right now, according to our data, UiPath is still number one, Automation Anywhere is number two, and Microsoft just by default of being entrenched in all of these enterprises has a lot of market share or mind share. >> And I also want to do a shout out to, or a call out, not really a shout out, but a call out to Pegasystems. We put them in the RPA category. They're covered in the ETR taxonomy. I don't consider them an RPA vendor. They're a business process vendor. They've been around for a long, long time. They've had a great year, done very, very well. The stock has done well. Their spending momentum, the early signs in the latest survey are just becoming, starting to moderate a little bit, but I like what they've done. They're not trying to take UiPath and Automation Anywhere head-on, and so I think there's some possibilities there. You've also got IBM who went to the market, SAP, Infor, and everybody's going to hop on the bandwagon here who's a software player. >> I completely agree, but I do think there's a very strong line in the sand between RPA and business process. I don't know if they're going to be able to make that transition. Now, business process also tends to be extremely costly. RPA came into this with trying to be, prove their ROI, trying to say, "Yeah, we're going to cost a little bit of money, but we're going to make it back." Business process has always been, at least the legacies, the ones you're mentioning, the Pega, the IBMs, really expensive. So again, I'm going to allude to that article I'm about to post. This particular person who's a lead tech automation for a very large company said, "Not only are UiPath and AA dominating RPA, but they're likely going to evolve to take over the business process space as well." So if they are proving what they can do, he's saying there's no real reason they can't turn around and take what Appian's doing, what IBM's doing and what Pega's doing. That's just one man's opinion. Our data is not actually tracking it in that space, so we can't back that, but I did think it was an interesting comment for and an interesting opportunity for UiPath and Automation Anywhere. >> Yeah, it's always great to hear directly from the mouths of the practitioners. All right, brings us to number 10 here. 5G rollouts are going to push new edge IoT workloads and necessitate new system architectures. AI and real-time inferencing, we think, require new thinking, particularly around processor and system design, and the focus is increasingly going to be on efficiency and at much, much lower costs versus what we've known for decades as general purpose workloads accommodating a lot of different use cases. You're seeing alternative processors like Nvidia, certainly the ARM acquisition. You've got companies hitting the market like Fungible with DPAs, and they're dominating these new workloads in the coming decade, we think, and they continue to demonstrate superior price performance metrics. And over the next five years they're going to find their way, we think, into mainstream enterprise workloads and put continued pressure on Intel general purpose microprocessors. Erik, look, we've seen cloud players. They're diversifying their processor suppliers. They're developing their own in-house silicon. This is a multi-year trend that's going to show meaningful progress next year, certainly if you measure it in terms of innovations, announcements and new use cases and funding and M&A activity. Your thoughts? >> Yeah, there's a lot there and I think you're right. It's a big trend that's going to have a wide implication, but right now, it's there's no doubt that the supply and demand is out of whack. You and I might be the only people around who still remember the great chip famine in 1999, but it seems to be happening again and some of that is due to just overwhelming demand, like you mentioned. Things like IoT. Things like 5G. Just the increased power of handheld devices. The remote from work home. All of this is creating a perfect storm, but it also has to do with some of the chip makers themselves kind of misfired, and you probably know the space better than me, so I'll leave you for that on that one. But I also want to talk a little bit, just another aspect of this 5G rollout, in my opinion, is we have to get closer to the edge, we have to get closer to the end consumer, and I do believe the CDN players have an area to play in this. And maybe we can leave that as there and we could do this some other time, but I do believe the CDN players are no longer about content delivery and they're really about edge compute. So as we see IoT and 5G roll out, it's going to have huge implications on the chip supply. No doubt. It's also could have really huge implications for the CDN network. >> All right, there you have it, folks. Erik, it's great working with you. It's been awesome this year. I hope we can do more in 2021. Really been a pleasure. >> Always. Have a great holiday, everybody. Stay safe. >> Yeah, you too. Okay, so look, that's our prediction for 2021 and the coming decade. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. You'll find it. We publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, and you got to check out etr.plus. It's where all the survey action is. Definitely subscribe to their services if you haven't already. You can DM me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, everyone. Be well and we'll see you next time. (relaxing music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Spark became a top level Apache project in 2014, and then shortly thereafter, burst onto the big data scene. Spark, along with the cloud, transformed and in many ways, disrupted the big data market. Databricks optimized its tech stack for Spark and took advantage of the cloud to really cleverly deliver a managed service that has become a leading AI and data platform among data scientists and data engineers. However, emerging customer data requirements are shifting into a direction that will cause modern data platform players generally and Databricks, specifically, we think, to make some key directional decisions and perhaps even reinvent themselves. Hello and welcome to this week's wikibon theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we're going to do a deep dive into Databricks. We'll explore its current impressive market momentum. We're going to use some ETR survey data to show that, and then we'll lay out how customer data requirements are changing and what the ideal data platform will look like in the midterm future. We'll then evaluate core elements of the Databricks portfolio against that vision, and then we'll close with some strategic decisions that we think the company faces. And to do so, we welcome in our good friend, George Gilbert, former equities analyst, market analyst, and current Principal at TechAlpha Partners. George, good to see you. Thanks for coming on. >> Good to see you, Dave. >> All right, let me set this up. We're going to start by taking a look at where Databricks sits in the market in terms of how customers perceive the company and what it's momentum looks like. And this chart that we're showing here is data from ETS, the emerging technology survey of private companies. The N is 1,421. What we did is we cut the data on three sectors, analytics, database-data warehouse, and AI/ML. The vertical axis is a measure of customer sentiment, which evaluates an IT decision maker's awareness of the firm and the likelihood of engaging and/or purchase intent. The horizontal axis shows mindshare in the dataset, and we've highlighted Databricks, which has been a consistent high performer in this survey over the last several quarters. And as we, by the way, just as aside as we previously reported, OpenAI, which burst onto the scene this past quarter, leads all names, but Databricks is still prominent. You can see that the ETR shows some open source tools for reference, but as far as firms go, Databricks is very impressively positioned. Now, let's see how they stack up to some mainstream cohorts in the data space, against some bigger companies and sometimes public companies. This chart shows net score on the vertical axis, which is a measure of spending momentum and pervasiveness in the data set is on the horizontal axis. You can see that chart insert in the upper right, that informs how the dots are plotted, and net score against shared N. And that red dotted line at 40% indicates a highly elevated net score, anything above that we think is really, really impressive. And here we're just comparing Databricks with Snowflake, Cloudera, and Oracle. And that squiggly line leading to Databricks shows their path since 2021 by quarter. And you can see it's performing extremely well, maintaining an elevated net score and net range. Now it's comparable in the vertical axis to Snowflake, and it consistently is moving to the right and gaining share. Now, why did we choose to show Cloudera and Oracle? The reason is that Cloudera got the whole big data era started and was disrupted by Spark. And of course the cloud, Spark and Databricks and Oracle in many ways, was the target of early big data players like Cloudera. Take a listen to Cloudera CEO at the time, Mike Olson. This is back in 2010, first year of theCUBE, play the clip. >> Look, back in the day, if you had a data problem, if you needed to run business analytics, you wrote the biggest check you could to Sun Microsystems, and you bought a great big, single box, central server, and any money that was left over, you handed to Oracle for a database licenses and you installed that database on that box, and that was where you went for data. That was your temple of information. >> Okay? So Mike Olson implied that monolithic model was too expensive and inflexible, and Cloudera set out to fix that. But the best laid plans, as they say, George, what do you make of the data that we just shared? >> So where Databricks has really come up out of sort of Cloudera's tailpipe was they took big data processing, made it coherent, made it a managed service so it could run in the cloud. So it relieved customers of the operational burden. Where they're really strong and where their traditional meat and potatoes or bread and butter is the predictive and prescriptive analytics that building and training and serving machine learning models. They've tried to move into traditional business intelligence, the more traditional descriptive and diagnostic analytics, but they're less mature there. So what that means is, the reason you see Databricks and Snowflake kind of side by side is there are many, many accounts that have both Snowflake for business intelligence, Databricks for AI machine learning, where Snowflake, I'm sorry, where Databricks also did really well was in core data engineering, refining the data, the old ETL process, which kind of turned into ELT, where you loaded into the analytic repository in raw form and refine it. And so people have really used both, and each is trying to get into the other. >> Yeah, absolutely. We've reported on this quite a bit. Snowflake, kind of moving into the domain of Databricks and vice versa. And the last bit of ETR evidence that we want to share in terms of the company's momentum comes from ETR's Round Tables. They're run by Erik Bradley, and now former Gartner analyst and George, your colleague back at Gartner, Daren Brabham. And what we're going to show here is some direct quotes of IT pros in those Round Tables. There's a data science head and a CIO as well. Just make a few call outs here, we won't spend too much time on it, but starting at the top, like all of us, we can't talk about Databricks without mentioning Snowflake. Those two get us excited. Second comment zeros in on the flexibility and the robustness of Databricks from a data warehouse perspective. And then the last point is, despite competition from cloud players, Databricks has reinvented itself a couple of times over the year. And George, we're going to lay out today a scenario that perhaps calls for Databricks to do that once again. >> Their big opportunity and their big challenge for every tech company, it's managing a technology transition. The transition that we're talking about is something that's been bubbling up, but it's really epical. First time in 60 years, we're moving from an application-centric view of the world to a data-centric view, because decisions are becoming more important than automating processes. So let me let you sort of develop. >> Yeah, so let's talk about that here. We going to put up some bullets on precisely that point and the changing sort of customer environment. So you got IT stacks are shifting is George just said, from application centric silos to data centric stacks where the priority is shifting from automating processes to automating decision. You know how look at RPA and there's still a lot of automation going on, but from the focus of that application centricity and the data locked into those apps, that's changing. Data has historically been on the outskirts in silos, but organizations, you think of Amazon, think Uber, Airbnb, they're putting data at the core, and logic is increasingly being embedded in the data instead of the reverse. In other words, today, the data's locked inside the app, which is why you need to extract that data is sticking it to a data warehouse. The point, George, is we're putting forth this new vision for how data is going to be used. And you've used this Uber example to underscore the future state. Please explain? >> Okay, so this is hopefully an example everyone can relate to. The idea is first, you're automating things that are happening in the real world and decisions that make those things happen autonomously without humans in the loop all the time. So to use the Uber example on your phone, you call a car, you call a driver. Automatically, the Uber app then looks at what drivers are in the vicinity, what drivers are free, matches one, calculates an ETA to you, calculates a price, calculates an ETA to your destination, and then directs the driver once they're there. The point of this is that that cannot happen in an application-centric world very easily because all these little apps, the drivers, the riders, the routes, the fares, those call on data locked up in many different apps, but they have to sit on a layer that makes it all coherent. >> But George, so if Uber's doing this, doesn't this tech already exist? Isn't there a tech platform that does this already? >> Yes, and the mission of the entire tech industry is to build services that make it possible to compose and operate similar platforms and tools, but with the skills of mainstream developers in mainstream corporations, not the rocket scientists at Uber and Amazon. >> Okay, so we're talking about horizontally scaling across the industry, and actually giving a lot more organizations access to this technology. So by way of review, let's summarize the trend that's going on today in terms of the modern data stack that is propelling the likes of Databricks and Snowflake, which we just showed you in the ETR data and is really is a tailwind form. So the trend is toward this common repository for analytic data, that could be multiple virtual data warehouses inside of Snowflake, but you're in that Snowflake environment or Lakehouses from Databricks or multiple data lakes. And we've talked about what JP Morgan Chase is doing with the data mesh and gluing data lakes together, you've got various public clouds playing in this game, and then the data is annotated to have a common meaning. In other words, there's a semantic layer that enables applications to talk to the data elements and know that they have common and coherent meaning. So George, the good news is this approach is more effective than the legacy monolithic models that Mike Olson was talking about, so what's the problem with this in your view? >> So today's data platforms added immense value 'cause they connected the data that was previously locked up in these monolithic apps or on all these different microservices, and that supported traditional BI and AI/ML use cases. But now if we want to build apps like Uber or Amazon.com, where they've got essentially an autonomously running supply chain and e-commerce app where humans only care and feed it. But the thing is figuring out what to buy, when to buy, where to deploy it, when to ship it. We needed a semantic layer on top of the data. So that, as you were saying, the data that's coming from all those apps, the different apps that's integrated, not just connected, but it means the same. And the issue is whenever you add a new layer to a stack to support new applications, there are implications for the already existing layers, like can they support the new layer and its use cases? So for instance, if you add a semantic layer that embeds app logic with the data rather than vice versa, which we been talking about and that's been the case for 60 years, then the new data layer faces challenges that the way you manage that data, the way you analyze that data, is not supported by today's tools. >> Okay, so actually Alex, bring me up that last slide if you would, I mean, you're basically saying at the bottom here, today's repositories don't really do joins at scale. The future is you're talking about hundreds or thousands or millions of data connections, and today's systems, we're talking about, I don't know, 6, 8, 10 joins and that is the fundamental problem you're saying, is a new data error coming and existing systems won't be able to handle it? >> Yeah, one way of thinking about it is that even though we call them relational databases, when we actually want to do lots of joins or when we want to analyze data from lots of different tables, we created a whole new industry for analytic databases where you sort of mung the data together into fewer tables. So you didn't have to do as many joins because the joins are difficult and slow. And when you're going to arbitrarily join thousands, hundreds of thousands or across millions of elements, you need a new type of database. We have them, they're called graph databases, but to query them, you go back to the prerelational era in terms of their usability. >> Okay, so we're going to come back to that and talk about how you get around that problem. But let's first lay out what the ideal data platform of the future we think looks like. And again, we're going to come back to use this Uber example. In this graphic that George put together, awesome. We got three layers. The application layer is where the data products reside. The example here is drivers, rides, maps, routes, ETA, et cetera. The digital version of what we were talking about in the previous slide, people, places and things. The next layer is the data layer, that breaks down the silos and connects the data elements through semantics and everything is coherent. And then the bottom layers, the legacy operational systems feed that data layer. George, explain what's different here, the graph database element, you talk about the relational query capabilities, and why can't I just throw memory at solving this problem? >> Some of the graph databases do throw memory at the problem and maybe without naming names, some of them live entirely in memory. And what you're dealing with is a prerelational in-memory database system where you navigate between elements, and the issue with that is we've had SQL for 50 years, so we don't have to navigate, we can say what we want without how to get it. That's the core of the problem. >> Okay. So if I may, I just want to drill into this a little bit. So you're talking about the expressiveness of a graph. Alex, if you'd bring that back out, the fourth bullet, expressiveness of a graph database with the relational ease of query. Can you explain what you mean by that? >> Yeah, so graphs are great because when you can describe anything with a graph, that's why they're becoming so popular. Expressive means you can represent anything easily. They're conducive to, you might say, in a world where we now want like the metaverse, like with a 3D world, and I don't mean the Facebook metaverse, I mean like the business metaverse when we want to capture data about everything, but we want it in context, we want to build a set of digital twins that represent everything going on in the world. And Uber is a tiny example of that. Uber built a graph to represent all the drivers and riders and maps and routes. But what you need out of a database isn't just a way to store stuff and update stuff. You need to be able to ask questions of it, you need to be able to query it. And if you go back to prerelational days, you had to know how to find your way to the data. It's sort of like when you give directions to someone and they didn't have a GPS system and a mapping system, you had to give them turn by turn directions. Whereas when you have a GPS and a mapping system, which is like the relational thing, you just say where you want to go, and it spits out the turn by turn directions, which let's say, the car might follow or whoever you're directing would follow. But the point is, it's much easier in a relational database to say, "I just want to get these results. You figure out how to get it." The graph database, they have not taken over the world because in some ways, it's taking a 50 year leap backwards. >> Alright, got it. Okay. Let's take a look at how the current Databricks offerings map to that ideal state that we just laid out. So to do that, we put together this chart that looks at the key elements of the Databricks portfolio, the core capability, the weakness, and the threat that may loom. Start with the Delta Lake, that's the storage layer, which is great for files and tables. It's got true separation of compute and storage, I want you to double click on that George, as independent elements, but it's weaker for the type of low latency ingest that we see coming in the future. And some of the threats highlighted here. AWS could add transactional tables to S3, Iceberg adoption is picking up and could accelerate, that could disrupt Databricks. George, add some color here please? >> Okay, so this is the sort of a classic competitive forces where you want to look at, so what are customers demanding? What's competitive pressure? What are substitutes? Even what your suppliers might be pushing. Here, Delta Lake is at its core, a set of transactional tables that sit on an object store. So think of it in a database system, this is the storage engine. So since S3 has been getting stronger for 15 years, you could see a scenario where they add transactional tables. We have an open source alternative in Iceberg, which Snowflake and others support. But at the same time, Databricks has built an ecosystem out of tools, their own and others, that read and write to Delta tables, that's what makes the Delta Lake and ecosystem. So they have a catalog, the whole machine learning tool chain talks directly to the data here. That was their great advantage because in the past with Snowflake, you had to pull all the data out of the database before the machine learning tools could work with it, that was a major shortcoming. They fixed that. But the point here is that even before we get to the semantic layer, the core foundation is under threat. >> Yep. Got it. Okay. We got a lot of ground to cover. So we're going to take a look at the Spark Execution Engine next. Think of that as the refinery that runs really efficient batch processing. That's kind of what disrupted the DOOp in a large way, but it's not Python friendly and that's an issue because the data science and the data engineering crowd are moving in that direction, and/or they're using DBT. George, we had Tristan Handy on at Supercloud, really interesting discussion that you and I did. Explain why this is an issue for Databricks? >> So once the data lake was in place, what people did was they refined their data batch, and Spark has always had streaming support and it's gotten better. The underlying storage as we've talked about is an issue. But basically they took raw data, then they refined it into tables that were like customers and products and partners. And then they refined that again into what was like gold artifacts, which might be business intelligence metrics or dashboards, which were collections of metrics. But they were running it on the Spark Execution Engine, which it's a Java-based engine or it's running on a Java-based virtual machine, which means all the data scientists and the data engineers who want to work with Python are really working in sort of oil and water. Like if you get an error in Python, you can't tell whether the problems in Python or where it's in Spark. There's just an impedance mismatch between the two. And then at the same time, the whole world is now gravitating towards DBT because it's a very nice and simple way to compose these data processing pipelines, and people are using either SQL in DBT or Python in DBT, and that kind of is a substitute for doing it all in Spark. So it's under threat even before we get to that semantic layer, it so happens that DBT itself is becoming the authoring environment for the semantic layer with business intelligent metrics. But that's again, this is the second element that's under direct substitution and competitive threat. >> Okay, let's now move down to the third element, which is the Photon. Photon is Databricks' BI Lakehouse, which has integration with the Databricks tooling, which is very rich, it's newer. And it's also not well suited for high concurrency and low latency use cases, which we think are going to increasingly become the norm over time. George, the call out threat here is customers want to connect everything to a semantic layer. Explain your thinking here and why this is a potential threat to Databricks? >> Okay, so two issues here. What you were touching on, which is the high concurrency, low latency, when people are running like thousands of dashboards and data is streaming in, that's a problem because SQL data warehouse, the query engine, something like that matures over five to 10 years. It's one of these things, the joke that Andy Jassy makes just in general, he's really talking about Azure, but there's no compression algorithm for experience. The Snowflake guy started more than five years earlier, and for a bunch of reasons, that lead is not something that Databricks can shrink. They'll always be behind. So that's why Snowflake has transactional tables now and we can get into that in another show. But the key point is, so near term, it's struggling to keep up with the use cases that are core to business intelligence, which is highly concurrent, lots of users doing interactive query. But then when you get to a semantic layer, that's when you need to be able to query data that might have thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of joins. And that's a SQL query engine, traditional SQL query engine is just not built for that. That's the core problem of traditional relational databases. >> Now this is a quick aside. We always talk about Snowflake and Databricks in sort of the same context. We're not necessarily saying that Snowflake is in a position to tackle all these problems. We'll deal with that separately. So we don't mean to imply that, but we're just sort of laying out some of the things that Snowflake or rather Databricks customers we think, need to be thinking about and having conversations with Databricks about and we hope to have them as well. We'll come back to that in terms of sort of strategic options. But finally, when come back to the table, we have Databricks' AI/ML Tool Chain, which has been an awesome capability for the data science crowd. It's comprehensive, it's a one-stop shop solution, but the kicker here is that it's optimized for supervised model building. And the concern is that foundational models like GPT could cannibalize the current Databricks tooling, but George, can't Databricks, like other software companies, integrate foundation model capabilities into its platform? >> Okay, so the sound bite answer to that is sure, IBM 3270 terminals could call out to a graphical user interface when they're running on the XT terminal, but they're not exactly good citizens in that world. The core issue is Databricks has this wonderful end-to-end tool chain for training, deploying, monitoring, running inference on supervised models. But the paradigm there is the customer builds and trains and deploys each model for each feature or application. In a world of foundation models which are pre-trained and unsupervised, the entire tool chain is different. So it's not like Databricks can junk everything they've done and start over with all their engineers. They have to keep maintaining what they've done in the old world, but they have to build something new that's optimized for the new world. It's a classic technology transition and their mentality appears to be, "Oh, we'll support the new stuff from our old stuff." Which is suboptimal, and as we'll talk about, their biggest patron and the company that put them on the map, Microsoft, really stopped working on their old stuff three years ago so that they could build a new tool chain optimized for this new world. >> Yeah, and so let's sort of close with what we think the options are and decisions that Databricks has for its future architecture. They're smart people. I mean we've had Ali Ghodsi on many times, super impressive. I think they've got to be keenly aware of the limitations, what's going on with foundation models. But at any rate, here in this chart, we lay out sort of three scenarios. One is re-architect the platform by incrementally adopting new technologies. And example might be to layer a graph query engine on top of its stack. They could license key technologies like graph database, they could get aggressive on M&A and buy-in, relational knowledge graphs, semantic technologies, vector database technologies. George, as David Floyer always says, "A lot of ways to skin a cat." We've seen companies like, even think about EMC maintained its relevance through M&A for many, many years. George, give us your thought on each of these strategic options? >> Okay, I find this question the most challenging 'cause remember, I used to be an equity research analyst. I worked for Frank Quattrone, we were one of the top tech shops in the banking industry, although this is 20 years ago. But the M&A team was the top team in the industry and everyone wanted them on their side. And I remember going to meetings with these CEOs, where Frank and the bankers would say, "You want us for your M&A work because we can do better." And they really could do better. But in software, it's not like with EMC in hardware because with hardware, it's easier to connect different boxes. With software, the whole point of a software company is to integrate and architect the components so they fit together and reinforce each other, and that makes M&A harder. You can do it, but it takes a long time to fit the pieces together. Let me give you examples. If they put a graph query engine, let's say something like TinkerPop, on top of, I don't even know if it's possible, but let's say they put it on top of Delta Lake, then you have this graph query engine talking to their storage layer, Delta Lake. But if you want to do analysis, you got to put the data in Photon, which is not really ideal for highly connected data. If you license a graph database, then most of your data is in the Delta Lake and how do you sync it with the graph database? If you do sync it, you've got data in two places, which kind of defeats the purpose of having a unified repository. I find this semantic layer option in number three actually more promising, because that's something that you can layer on top of the storage layer that you have already. You just have to figure out then how to have your query engines talk to that. What I'm trying to highlight is, it's easy as an analyst to say, "You can buy this company or license that technology." But the really hard work is making it all work together and that is where the challenge is. >> Yeah, and well look, I thank you for laying that out. We've seen it, certainly Microsoft and Oracle. I guess you might argue that well, Microsoft had a monopoly in its desktop software and was able to throw off cash for a decade plus while it's stock was going sideways. Oracle had won the database wars and had amazing margins and cash flow to be able to do that. Databricks isn't even gone public yet, but I want to close with some of the players to watch. Alex, if you'd bring that back up, number four here. AWS, we talked about some of their options with S3 and it's not just AWS, it's blob storage, object storage. Microsoft, as you sort of alluded to, was an early go-to market channel for Databricks. We didn't address that really. So maybe in the closing comments we can. Google obviously, Snowflake of course, we're going to dissect their options in future Breaking Analysis. Dbt labs, where do they fit? Bob Muglia's company, Relational.ai, why are these players to watch George, in your opinion? >> So everyone is trying to assemble and integrate the pieces that would make building data applications, data products easy. And the critical part isn't just assembling a bunch of pieces, which is traditionally what AWS did. It's a Unix ethos, which is we give you the tools, you put 'em together, 'cause you then have the maximum choice and maximum power. So what the hyperscalers are doing is they're taking their key value stores, in the case of ASW it's DynamoDB, in the case of Azure it's Cosmos DB, and each are putting a graph query engine on top of those. So they have a unified storage and graph database engine, like all the data would be collected in the key value store. Then you have a graph database, that's how they're going to be presenting a foundation for building these data apps. Dbt labs is putting a semantic layer on top of data lakes and data warehouses and as we'll talk about, I'm sure in the future, that makes it easier to swap out the underlying data platform or swap in new ones for specialized use cases. Snowflake, what they're doing, they're so strong in data management and with their transactional tables, what they're trying to do is take in the operational data that used to be in the province of many state stores like MongoDB and say, "If you manage that data with us, it'll be connected to your analytic data without having to send it through a pipeline." And that's hugely valuable. Relational.ai is the wildcard, 'cause what they're trying to do, it's almost like a holy grail where you're trying to take the expressiveness of connecting all your data in a graph but making it as easy to query as you've always had it in a SQL database or I should say, in a relational database. And if they do that, it's sort of like, it'll be as easy to program these data apps as a spreadsheet was compared to procedural languages, like BASIC or Pascal. That's the implications of Relational.ai. >> Yeah, and again, we talked before, why can't you just throw this all in memory? We're talking in that example of really getting down to differences in how you lay the data out on disk in really, new database architecture, correct? >> Yes. And that's why it's not clear that you could take a data lake or even a Snowflake and why you can't put a relational knowledge graph on those. You could potentially put a graph database, but it'll be compromised because to really do what Relational.ai has done, which is the ease of Relational on top of the power of graph, you actually need to change how you're storing your data on disk or even in memory. So you can't, in other words, it's not like, oh we can add graph support to Snowflake, 'cause if you did that, you'd have to change, or in your data lake, you'd have to change how the data is physically laid out. And then that would break all the tools that talk to that currently. >> What in your estimation, is the timeframe where this becomes critical for a Databricks and potentially Snowflake and others? I mentioned earlier midterm, are we talking three to five years here? Are we talking end of decade? What's your radar say? >> I think something surprising is going on that's going to sort of come up the tailpipe and take everyone by storm. All the hype around business intelligence metrics, which is what we used to put in our dashboards where bookings, billings, revenue, customer, those things, those were the key artifacts that used to live in definitions in your BI tools, and DBT has basically created a standard for defining those so they live in your data pipeline or they're defined in their data pipeline and executed in the data warehouse or data lake in a shared way, so that all tools can use them. This sounds like a digression, it's not. All this stuff about data mesh, data fabric, all that's going on is we need a semantic layer and the business intelligence metrics are defining common semantics for your data. And I think we're going to find by the end of this year, that metrics are how we annotate all our analytic data to start adding common semantics to it. And we're going to find this semantic layer, it's not three to five years off, it's going to be staring us in the face by the end of this year. >> Interesting. And of course SVB today was shut down. We're seeing serious tech headwinds, and oftentimes in these sort of downturns or flat turns, which feels like this could be going on for a while, we emerge with a lot of new players and a lot of new technology. George, we got to leave it there. Thank you to George Gilbert for excellent insights and input for today's episode. I want to thank Alex Myerson who's on production and manages the podcast, of course Ken Schiffman as well. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our EIC over at Siliconangle.com, he does some great editing. Remember all these episodes, they're available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, all you got to do is search Breaking Analysis Podcast, we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, or you can email me at David.Vellante@siliconangle.com, or DM me @DVellante. Comment on our LinkedIn post, and please do check out ETR.ai, great survey data, enterprise tech focus, phenomenal. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time on Breaking Analysis.

>> From The Cube Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data driven insights from The Cube at ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> The reverse momentum in tech stocks caused by rising interest rates, less attractive discounted cash flow models, and more tepid forward guidance, can be easily measured by public market valuations. And while there's lots of discussion about the impact on private companies and cash runway and 409A valuations, measuring the performance of non-public companies isn't as easy. IPOs have dried up and public statements by private companies, of course, they accentuate the good and they kind of hide the bad. Real data, unless you're an insider, is hard to find. Hello and welcome to this week's "Wikibon Cube Insights" powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis", we unlock some of the secrets that non-public, emerging tech companies may or may not be sharing. And we do this by introducing you to a capability from ETR that we've not exposed you to over the past couple of years, it's called the Emerging Technologies Survey, and it is packed with sentiment data and performance data based on surveys of more than a thousand CIOs and IT buyers covering more than 400 companies. And we've invited back our colleague, Erik Bradley of ETR to help explain the survey and the data that we're going to cover today. Erik, this survey is something that I've not personally spent much time on, but I'm blown away at the data. It's really unique and detailed. First of all, welcome. Good to see you again. >> Great to see you too, Dave, and I'm really happy to be talking about the ETS or the Emerging Technology Survey. Even our own clients of constituents probably don't spend as much time in here as they should. >> Yeah, because there's so much in the mainstream, but let's pull up a slide to bring out the survey composition. Tell us about the study. How often do you run it? What's the background and the methodology? >> Yeah, you were just spot on the way you were talking about the private tech companies out there. So what we did is we decided to take all the vendors that we track that are not yet public and move 'em over to the ETS. And there isn't a lot of information out there. If you're not in Silicon (indistinct), you're not going to get this stuff. So PitchBook and Tech Crunch are two out there that gives some data on these guys. But what we really wanted to do was go out to our community. We have 6,000, ITDMs in our community. We wanted to ask them, "Are you aware of these companies? And if so, are you allocating any resources to them? Are you planning to evaluate them," and really just kind of figure out what we can do. So this particular survey, as you can see, 1000 plus responses, over 450 vendors that we track. And essentially what we're trying to do here is talk about your evaluation and awareness of these companies and also your utilization. And also if you're not utilizing 'em, then we can also figure out your sales conversion or churn. So this is interesting, not only for the ITDMs themselves to figure out what their peers are evaluating and what they should put in POCs against the big guys when contracts come up. But it's also really interesting for the tech vendors themselves to see how they're performing. >> And you can see 2/3 of the respondents are director level of above. You got 28% is C-suite. There is of course a North America bias, 70, 75% is North America. But these smaller companies, you know, that's when they start doing business. So, okay. We're going to do a couple of things here today. First, we're going to give you the big picture across the sectors that ETR covers within the ETS survey. And then we're going to look at the high and low sentiment for the larger private companies. And then we're going to do the same for the smaller private companies, the ones that don't have as much mindshare. And then I'm going to put those two groups together and we're going to look at two dimensions, actually three dimensions, which companies are being evaluated the most. Second, companies are getting the most usage and adoption of their offerings. And then third, which companies are seeing the highest churn rates, which of course is a silent killer of companies. And then finally, we're going to look at the sentiment and mindshare for two key areas that we like to cover often here on "Breaking Analysis", security and data. And data comprises database, including data warehousing, and then big data analytics is the second part of data. And then machine learning and AI is the third section within data that we're going to look at. Now, one other thing before we get into it, ETR very often will include open source offerings in the mix, even though they're not companies like TensorFlow or Kubernetes, for example. And we'll call that out during this discussion. The reason this is done is for context, because everyone is using open source. It is the heart of innovation and many business models are super glued to an open source offering, like take MariaDB, for example. There's the foundation and then there's with the open source code and then there, of course, the company that sells services around the offering. Okay, so let's first look at the highest and lowest sentiment among these private firms, the ones that have the highest mindshare. So they're naturally going to be somewhat larger. And we do this on two dimensions, sentiment on the vertical axis and mindshare on the horizontal axis and note the open source tool, see Kubernetes, Postgres, Kafka, TensorFlow, Jenkins, Grafana, et cetera. So Erik, please explain what we're looking at here, how it's derived and what the data tells us. >> Certainly, so there is a lot here, so we're going to break it down first of all by explaining just what mindshare and net sentiment is. You explain the axis. We have so many evaluation metrics, but we need to aggregate them into one so that way we can rank against each other. Net sentiment is really the aggregation of all the positive and subtracting out the negative. So the net sentiment is a very quick way of looking at where these companies stand versus their peers in their sectors and sub sectors. Mindshare is basically the awareness of them, which is good for very early stage companies. And you'll see some names on here that are obviously been around for a very long time. And they're clearly be the bigger on the axis on the outside. Kubernetes, for instance, as you mentioned, is open source. This de facto standard for all container orchestration, and it should be that far up into the right, because that's what everyone's using. In fact, the open source leaders are so prevalent in the emerging technology survey that we break them out later in our analysis, 'cause it's really not fair to include them and compare them to the actual companies that are providing the support and the security around that open source technology. But no survey, no analysis, no research would be complete without including these open source tech. So what we're looking at here, if I can just get away from the open source names, we see other things like Databricks and OneTrust . They're repeating as top net sentiment performers here. And then also the design vendors. People don't spend a lot of time on 'em, but Miro and Figma. This is their third survey in a row where they're just dominating that sentiment overall. And Adobe should probably take note of that because they're really coming after them. But Databricks, we all know probably would've been a public company by now if the market hadn't turned, but you can see just how dominant they are in a survey of nothing but private companies. And we'll see that again when we talk about the database later. >> And I'll just add, so you see automation anywhere on there, the big UiPath competitor company that was not able to get to the public markets. They've been trying. Snyk, Peter McKay's company, they've raised a bunch of money, big security player. They're doing some really interesting things in developer security, helping developers secure the data flow, H2O.ai, Dataiku AI company. We saw them at the Snowflake Summit. Redis Labs, Netskope and security. So a lot of names that we know that ultimately we think are probably going to be hitting the public market. Okay, here's the same view for private companies with less mindshare, Erik. Take us through this one. >> On the previous slide too real quickly, I wanted to pull that security scorecard and we'll get back into it. But this is a newcomer, that I couldn't believe how strong their data was, but we'll bring that up in a second. Now, when we go to the ones of lower mindshare, it's interesting to talk about open source, right? Kubernetes was all the way on the top right. Everyone uses containers. Here we see Istio up there. Not everyone is using service mesh as much. And that's why Istio is in the smaller breakout. But still when you talk about net sentiment, it's about the leader, it's the highest one there is. So really interesting to point out. Then we see other names like Collibra in the data side really performing well. And again, as always security, very well represented here. We have Aqua, Wiz, Armis, which is a standout in this survey this time around. They do IoT security. I hadn't even heard of them until I started digging into the data here. And I couldn't believe how well they were doing. And then of course you have AnyScale, which is doing a second best in this and the best name in the survey Hugging Face, which is a machine learning AI tool. Also doing really well on a net sentiment, but they're not as far along on that access of mindshare just yet. So these are again, emerging companies that might not be as well represented in the enterprise as they will be in a couple of years. >> Hugging Face sounds like something you do with your two year old. Like you said, you see high performers, AnyScale do machine learning and you mentioned them. They came out of Berkeley. Collibra Governance, InfluxData is on there. InfluxDB's a time series database. And yeah, of course, Alex, if you bring that back up, you get a big group of red dots, right? That's the bad zone, I guess, which Sisense does vis, Yellowbrick Data is a NPP database. How should we interpret the red dots, Erik? I mean, is it necessarily a bad thing? Could it be misinterpreted? What's your take on that? >> Sure, well, let me just explain the definition of it first from a data science perspective, right? We're a data company first. So the gray dots that you're seeing that aren't named, that's the mean that's the average. So in order for you to be on this chart, you have to be at least one standard deviation above or below that average. So that gray is where we're saying, "Hey, this is where the lump of average comes in. This is where everyone normally stands." So you either have to be an outperformer or an underperformer to even show up in this analysis. So by definition, yes, the red dots are bad. You're at least one standard deviation below the average of your peers. It's not where you want to be. And if you're on the lower left, not only are you not performing well from a utilization or an actual usage rate, but people don't even know who you are. So that's a problem, obviously. And the VCs and the PEs out there that are backing these companies, they're the ones who mostly are interested in this data. >> Yeah. Oh, that's great explanation. Thank you for that. No, nice benchmarking there and yeah, you don't want to be in the red. All right, let's get into the next segment here. Here going to look at evaluation rates, adoption and the all important churn. First new evaluations. Let's bring up that slide. And Erik, take us through this. >> So essentially I just want to explain what evaluation means is that people will cite that they either plan to evaluate the company or they're currently evaluating. So that means we're aware of 'em and we are choosing to do a POC of them. And then we'll see later how that turns into utilization, which is what a company wants to see, awareness, evaluation, and then actually utilizing them. That's sort of the life cycle for these emerging companies. So what we're seeing here, again, with very high evaluation rates. H2O, we mentioned. SecurityScorecard jumped up again. Chargebee, Snyk, Salt Security, Armis. A lot of security names are up here, Aqua, Netskope, which God has been around forever. I still can't believe it's in an Emerging Technology Survey But so many of these names fall in data and security again, which is why we decided to pick those out Dave. And on the lower side, Vena, Acton, those unfortunately took the dubious award of the lowest evaluations in our survey, but I prefer to focus on the positive. So SecurityScorecard, again, real standout in this one, they're in a security assessment space, basically. They'll come in and assess for you how your security hygiene is. And it's an area of a real interest right now amongst our ITDM community. >> Yeah, I mean, I think those, and then Arctic Wolf is up there too. They're doing managed services. You had mentioned Netskope. Yeah, okay. All right, let's look at now adoption. These are the companies whose offerings are being used the most and are above that standard deviation in the green. Take us through this, Erik. >> Sure, yet again, what we're looking at is, okay, we went from awareness, we went to evaluation. Now it's about utilization, which means a survey respondent's going to state "Yes, we evaluated and we plan to utilize it" or "It's already in our enterprise and we're actually allocating further resources to it." Not surprising, again, a lot of open source, the reason why, it's free. So it's really easy to grow your utilization on something that's free. But as you and I both know, as Red Hat proved, there's a lot of money to be made once the open source is adopted, right? You need the governance, you need the security, you need the support wrapped around it. So here we're seeing Kubernetes, Postgres, Apache Kafka, Jenkins, Grafana. These are all open source based names. But if we're looking at names that are non open source, we're going to see Databricks, Automation Anywhere, Rubrik all have the highest mindshare. So these are the names, not surprisingly, all names that probably should have been public by now. Everyone's expecting an IPO imminently. These are the names that have the highest mindshare. If we talk about the highest utilization rates, again, Miro and Figma pop up, and I know they're not household names, but they are just dominant in this survey. These are applications that are meant for design software and, again, they're going after an Autodesk or a CAD or Adobe type of thing. It is just dominant how high the utilization rates are here, which again is something Adobe should be paying attention to. And then you'll see a little bit lower, but also interesting, we see Collibra again, we see Hugging Face again. And these are names that are obviously in the data governance, ML, AI side. So we're seeing a ton of data, a ton of security and Rubrik was interesting in this one, too, high utilization and high mindshare. We know how pervasive they are in the enterprise already. >> Erik, Alex, keep that up for a second, if you would. So yeah, you mentioned Rubrik. Cohesity's not on there. They're sort of the big one. We're going to talk about them in a moment. Puppet is interesting to me because you remember the early days of that sort of space, you had Puppet and Chef and then you had Ansible. Red Hat bought Ansible and then Ansible really took off. So it's interesting to see Puppet on there as well. Okay. So now let's look at the churn because this one is where you don't want to be. It's, of course, all red 'cause churn is bad. Take us through this, Erik. >> Yeah, definitely don't want to be here and I don't love to dwell on the negative. So we won't spend as much time. But to your point, there's one thing I want to point out that think it's important. So you see Rubrik in the same spot, but Rubrik has so many citations in our survey that it actually would make sense that they're both being high utilization and churn just because they're so well represented. They have such a high overall representation in our survey. And the reason I call that out is Cohesity. Cohesity has an extremely high churn rate here about 17% and unlike Rubrik, they were not on the utilization side. So Rubrik is seeing both, Cohesity is not. It's not being utilized, but it's seeing a high churn. So that's the way you can look at this data and say, "Hm." Same thing with Puppet. You noticed that it was on the other slide. It's also on this one. So basically what it means is a lot of people are giving Puppet a shot, but it's starting to churn, which means it's not as sticky as we would like. One that was surprising on here for me was Tanium. It's kind of jumbled in there. It's hard to see in the middle, but Tanium, I was very surprised to see as high of a churn because what I do hear from our end user community is that people that use it, like it. It really kind of spreads into not only vulnerability management, but also that endpoint detection and response side. So I was surprised by that one, mostly to see Tanium in here. Mural, again, was another one of those application design softwares that's seeing a very high churn as well. >> So you're saying if you're in both... Alex, bring that back up if you would. So if you're in both like MariaDB is for example, I think, yeah, they're in both. They're both green in the previous one and red here, that's not as bad. You mentioned Rubrik is going to be in both. Cohesity is a bit of a concern. Cohesity just brought on Sanjay Poonen. So this could be a go to market issue, right? I mean, 'cause Cohesity has got a great product and they got really happy customers. So they're just maybe having to figure out, okay, what's the right ideal customer profile and Sanjay Poonen, I guarantee, is going to have that company cranking. I mean they had been doing very well on the surveys and had fallen off of a bit. The other interesting things wondering the previous survey I saw Cvent, which is an event platform. My only reason I pay attention to that is 'cause we actually have an event platform. We don't sell it separately. We bundle it as part of our offerings. And you see Hopin on here. Hopin raised a billion dollars during the pandemic. And we were like, "Wow, that's going to blow up." And so you see Hopin on the churn and you didn't see 'em in the previous chart, but that's sort of interesting. Like you said, let's not kind of dwell on the negative, but you really don't. You know, churn is a real big concern. Okay, now we're going to drill down into two sectors, security and data. Where data comprises three areas, database and data warehousing, machine learning and AI and big data analytics. So first let's take a look at the security sector. Now this is interesting because not only is it a sector drill down, but also gives an indicator of how much money the firm has raised, which is the size of that bubble. And to tell us if a company is punching above its weight and efficiently using its venture capital. Erik, take us through this slide. Explain the dots, the size of the dots. Set this up please. >> Yeah. So again, the axis is still the same, net sentiment and mindshare, but what we've done this time is we've taken publicly available information on how much capital company is raised and that'll be the size of the circle you see around the name. And then whether it's green or red is basically saying relative to the amount of money they've raised, how are they doing in our data? So when you see a Netskope, which has been around forever, raised a lot of money, that's why you're going to see them more leading towards red, 'cause it's just been around forever and kind of would expect it. Versus a name like SecurityScorecard, which is only raised a little bit of money and it's actually performing just as well, if not better than a name, like a Netskope. OneTrust doing absolutely incredible right now. BeyondTrust. We've seen the issues with Okta, right. So those are two names that play in that space that obviously are probably getting some looks about what's going on right now. Wiz, we've all heard about right? So raised a ton of money. It's doing well on net sentiment, but the mindshare isn't as well as you'd want, which is why you're going to see a little bit of that red versus a name like Aqua, which is doing container and application security. And hasn't raised as much money, but is really neck and neck with a name like Wiz. So that is why on a relative basis, you'll see that more green. As we all know, information security is never going away. But as we'll get to later in the program, Dave, I'm not sure in this current market environment, if people are as willing to do POCs and switch away from their security provider, right. There's a little bit of tepidness out there, a little trepidation. So right now we're seeing overall a slight pause, a slight cooling in overall evaluations on the security side versus historical levels a year ago. >> Now let's stay on here for a second. So a couple things I want to point out. So it's interesting. Now Snyk has raised over, I think $800 million but you can see them, they're high on the vertical and the horizontal, but now compare that to Lacework. It's hard to see, but they're kind of buried in the middle there. That's the biggest dot in this whole thing. I think I'm interpreting this correctly. They've raised over a billion dollars. It's a Mike Speiser company. He was the founding investor in Snowflake. So people watch that very closely, but that's an example of where they're not punching above their weight. They recently had a layoff and they got to fine tune things, but I'm still confident they they're going to do well. 'Cause they're approaching security as a data problem, which is probably people having trouble getting their arms around that. And then again, I see Arctic Wolf. They're not red, they're not green, but they've raised fair amount of money, but it's showing up to the right and decent level there. And a couple of the other ones that you mentioned, Netskope. Yeah, they've raised a lot of money, but they're actually performing where you want. What you don't want is where Lacework is, right. They've got some work to do to really take advantage of the money that they raised last November and prior to that. >> Yeah, if you're seeing that more neutral color, like you're calling out with an Arctic Wolf, like that means relative to their peers, this is where they should be. It's when you're seeing that red on a Lacework where we all know, wow, you raised a ton of money and your mindshare isn't where it should be. Your net sentiment is not where it should be comparatively. And then you see these great standouts, like Salt Security and SecurityScorecard and Abnormal. You know they haven't raised that much money yet, but their net sentiment's higher and their mindshare's doing well. So those basically in a nutshell, if you're a PE or a VC and you see a small green circle, then you're doing well, then it means you made a good investment. >> Some of these guys, I don't know, but you see these small green circles. Those are the ones you want to start digging into and maybe help them catch a wave. Okay, let's get into the data discussion. And again, three areas, database slash data warehousing, big data analytics and ML AI. First, we're going to look at the database sector. So Alex, thank you for bringing that up. Alright, take us through this, Erik. Actually, let me just say Postgres SQL. I got to ask you about this. It shows some funding, but that actually could be a mix of EDB, the company that commercializes Postgres and Postgres the open source database, which is a transaction system and kind of an open source Oracle. You see MariaDB is a database, but open source database. But the companies they've raised over $200 million and they filed an S-4. So Erik looks like this might be a little bit of mashup of companies and open source products. Help us understand this. >> Yeah, it's tough when you start dealing with the open source side and I'll be honest with you, there is a little bit of a mashup here. There are certain names here that are a hundred percent for profit companies. And then there are others that are obviously open source based like Redis is open source, but Redis Labs is the one trying to monetize the support around it. So you're a hundred percent accurate on this slide. I think one of the things here that's important to note though, is just how important open source is to data. If you're going to be going to any of these areas, it's going to be open source based to begin with. And Neo4j is one I want to call out here. It's not one everyone's familiar with, but it's basically geographical charting database, which is a name that we're seeing on a net sentiment side actually really, really high. When you think about it's the third overall net sentiment for a niche database play. It's not as big on the mindshare 'cause it's use cases aren't as often, but third biggest play on net sentiment. I found really interesting on this slide. >> And again, so MariaDB, as I said, they filed an S-4 I think $50 million in revenue, that might even be ARR. So they're not huge, but they're getting there. And by the way, MariaDB, if you don't know, was the company that was formed the day that Oracle bought Sun in which they got MySQL and MariaDB has done a really good job of replacing a lot of MySQL instances. Oracle has responded with MySQL HeatWave, which was kind of the Oracle version of MySQL. So there's some interesting battles going on there. If you think about the LAMP stack, the M in the LAMP stack was MySQL. And so now it's all MariaDB replacing that MySQL for a large part. And then you see again, the red, you know, you got to have some concerns about there. Aerospike's been around for a long time. SingleStore changed their name a couple years ago, last year. Yellowbrick Data, Fire Bolt was kind of going after Snowflake for a while, but yeah, you want to get out of that red zone. So they got some work to do. >> And Dave, real quick for the people that aren't aware, I just want to let them know that we can cut this data with the public company data as well. So we can cross over this with that because some of these names are competing with the larger public company names as well. So we can go ahead and cross reference like a MariaDB with a Mongo, for instance, or of something of that nature. So it's not in this slide, but at another point we can certainly explain on a relative basis how these private names are doing compared to the other ones as well. >> All right, let's take a quick look at analytics. Alex, bring that up if you would. Go ahead, Erik. >> Yeah, I mean, essentially here, I can't see it on my screen, my apologies. I just kind of went to blank on that. So gimme one second to catch up. >> So I could set it up while you're doing that. You got Grafana up and to the right. I mean, this is huge right. >> Got it thank you. I lost my screen there for a second. Yep. Again, open source name Grafana, absolutely up and to the right. But as we know, Grafana Labs is actually picking up a lot of speed based on Grafana, of course. And I think we might actually hear some noise from them coming this year. The names that are actually a little bit more disappointing than I want to call out are names like ThoughtSpot. It's been around forever. Their mindshare of course is second best here but based on the amount of time they've been around and the amount of money they've raised, it's not actually outperforming the way it should be. We're seeing Moogsoft obviously make some waves. That's very high net sentiment for that company. It's, you know, what, third, fourth position overall in this entire area, Another name like Fivetran, Matillion is doing well. Fivetran, even though it's got a high net sentiment, again, it's raised so much money that we would've expected a little bit more at this point. I know you know this space extremely well, but basically what we're looking at here and to the bottom left, you're going to see some names with a lot of red, large circles that really just aren't performing that well. InfluxData, however, second highest net sentiment. And it's really pretty early on in this stage and the feedback we're getting on this name is the use cases are great, the efficacy's great. And I think it's one to watch out for. >> InfluxData, time series database. The other interesting things I just noticed here, you got Tamer on here, which is that little small green. Those are the ones we were saying before, look for those guys. They might be some of the interesting companies out there and then observe Jeremy Burton's company. They do observability on top of Snowflake, not green, but kind of in that gray. So that's kind of cool. Monte Carlo is another one, they're sort of slightly green. They are doing some really interesting things in data and data mesh. So yeah, okay. So I can spend all day on this stuff, Erik, phenomenal data. I got to get back and really dig in. Let's end with machine learning and AI. Now this chart it's similar in its dimensions, of course, except for the money raised. We're not showing that size of the bubble, but AI is so hot. We wanted to cover that here, Erik, explain this please. Why TensorFlow is highlighted and walk us through this chart. >> Yeah, it's funny yet again, right? Another open source name, TensorFlow being up there. And I just want to explain, we do break out machine learning, AI is its own sector. A lot of this of course really is intertwined with the data side, but it is on its own area. And one of the things I think that's most important here to break out is Databricks. We started to cover Databricks in machine learning, AI. That company has grown into much, much more than that. So I do want to state to you Dave, and also the audience out there that moving forward, we're going to be moving Databricks out of only the MA/AI into other sectors. So we can kind of value them against their peers a little bit better. But in this instance, you could just see how dominant they are in this area. And one thing that's not here, but I do want to point out is that we have the ability to break this down by industry vertical, organization size. And when I break this down into Fortune 500 and Fortune 1000, both Databricks and Tensorflow are even better than you see here. So it's quite interesting to see that the names that are succeeding are also succeeding with the largest organizations in the world. And as we know, large organizations means large budgets. So this is one area that I just thought was really interesting to point out that as we break it down, the data by vertical, these two names still are the outstanding players. >> I just also want to call it H2O.ai. They're getting a lot of buzz in the marketplace and I'm seeing them a lot more. Anaconda, another one. Dataiku consistently popping up. DataRobot is also interesting because all the kerfuffle that's going on there. The Cube guy, Cube alum, Chris Lynch stepped down as executive chairman. All this stuff came out about how the executives were taking money off the table and didn't allow the employees to participate in that money raising deal. So that's pissed a lot of people off. And so they're now going through some kind of uncomfortable things, which is unfortunate because DataRobot, I noticed, we haven't covered them that much in "Breaking Analysis", but I've noticed them oftentimes, Erik, in the surveys doing really well. So you would think that company has a lot of potential. But yeah, it's an important space that we're going to continue to watch. Let me ask you Erik, can you contextualize this from a time series standpoint? I mean, how is this changed over time? >> Yeah, again, not show here, but in the data. I'm sorry, go ahead. >> No, I'm sorry. What I meant, I should have interjected. In other words, you would think in a downturn that these emerging companies would be less interesting to buyers 'cause they're more risky. What have you seen? >> Yeah, and it was interesting before we went live, you and I were having this conversation about "Is the downturn stopping people from evaluating these private companies or not," right. In a larger sense, that's really what we're doing here. How are these private companies doing when it comes down to the actual practitioners? The people with the budget, the people with the decision making. And so what I did is, we have historical data as you know, I went back to the Emerging Technology Survey we did in November of 21, right at the crest right before the market started to really fall and everything kind of started to fall apart there. And what I noticed is on the security side, very much so, we're seeing less evaluations than we were in November 21. So I broke it down. On cloud security, net sentiment went from 21% to 16% from November '21. That's a pretty big drop. And again, that sentiment is our one aggregate metric for overall positivity, meaning utilization and actual evaluation of the name. Again in database, we saw it drop a little bit from 19% to 13%. However, in analytics we actually saw it stay steady. So it's pretty interesting that yes, cloud security and security in general is always going to be important. But right now we're seeing less overall net sentiment in that space. But within analytics, we're seeing steady with growing mindshare. And also to your point earlier in machine learning, AI, we're seeing steady net sentiment and mindshare has grown a whopping 25% to 30%. So despite the downturn, we're seeing more awareness of these companies in analytics and machine learning and a steady, actual utilization of them. I can't say the same in security and database. They're actually shrinking a little bit since the end of last year. >> You know it's interesting, we were on a round table, Erik does these round tables with CISOs and CIOs, and I remember one time you had asked the question, "How do you think about some of these emerging tech companies?" And one of the executives said, "I always include somebody in the bottom left of the Gartner Magic Quadrant in my RFPs. I think he said, "That's how I found," I don't know, it was Zscaler or something like that years before anybody ever knew of them "Because they're going to help me get to the next level." So it's interesting to see Erik in these sectors, how they're holding up in many cases. >> Yeah. It's a very important part for the actual IT practitioners themselves. There's always contracts coming up and you always have to worry about your next round of negotiations. And that's one of the roles these guys play. You have to do a POC when contracts come up, but it's also their job to stay on top of the new technology. You can't fall behind. Like everyone's a software company. Now everyone's a tech company, no matter what you're doing. So these guys have to stay in on top of it. And that's what this ETS can do. You can go in here and look and say, "All right, I'm going to evaluate their technology," and it could be twofold. It might be that you're ready to upgrade your technology and they're actually pushing the envelope or it simply might be I'm using them as a negotiation ploy. So when I go back to the big guy who I have full intentions of writing that contract to, at least I have some negotiation leverage. >> Erik, we got to leave it there. I could spend all day. I'm going to definitely dig into this on my own time. Thank you for introducing this, really appreciate your time today. >> I always enjoy it, Dave and I hope everyone out there has a great holiday weekend. Enjoy the rest of the summer. And, you know, I love to talk data. So anytime you want, just point the camera on me and I'll start talking data. >> You got it. I also want to thank the team at ETR, not only Erik, but Darren Bramen who's a data scientist, really helped prepare this data, the entire team over at ETR. I cannot tell you how much additional data there is. We are just scratching the surface in this "Breaking Analysis". So great job guys. I want to thank Alex Myerson. Who's on production and he manages the podcast. Ken Shifman as well, who's just coming back from VMware Explore. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE. Does some great editing for us. Thank you. All of you guys. Remember these episodes, they're all available as podcast, wherever you listen. All you got to do is just search "Breaking Analysis" podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me to get in touch david.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me at dvellante or comment on my LinkedIn posts and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley and The Cube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. Be well. And we'll see you next time on "Breaking Analysis". (upbeat music)

>> From the theCUBE studios in Palo Alto, in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis", with Dave Vellante. >> The recent security breach of an Okta third party supplier has been widely reported. The criticisms of Okta's response have been harsh, and the impact on Okta's value has been obvious, investors shaved about $6 billion off the company's market cap during the week the hack was made public. We believe Okta's claim that the customer technical impact was, "Near zero," may be semantically correct. However, based on customer data, we feel Okta has a blind spot. There are customer ripple effects that require clear action which are missed in Okta's public statements, in our view. Okta's product portfolio remains solid, it's a clear leader in the identity space. But in our view, one part of the long journey back to credibility requires Okta to fully understand and recognize the true scope of this breach on its customers. Hello, and welcome to this week's Wikibon "CUBE Insights", powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis", we welcome our ETR colleague, Erik Bradley, to share new data from the community. Erik, welcome. >> Thank you, Dave, always enjoy being on the show, particularly when we get to talk about a topic that's not being well covered in the mainstream media in my opinion. >> Yeah, I agree, you've got some new data, and we're going to share some of that today. Let's first review the timeline of this hack. On January 20th this year, Okta got an alert that something was amiss at one of its partners, a company called Sitel, that provides low-level contact center support for Okta. The next day, Sitel retained a forensic firm to investigate, which was completed, that investigation was completed on February 28th. A report dated March 10th was created, and Okta received a summary of that from Sitel on March 17th. Five days later, Lapsus$ posted the infamous screenshots on Twitter. And later that day, sheesh, Okta got the full report from Sitel, and then responded publicly. Then the media frenzy in the back and forth ensued. So Erik, you know, there's so much wrong with this timeline, it's been picked apart by the media. But I will say this, what appeared to be a benign incident and generally has turned into a PR disaster for Okta, and I imagine Sitel as well. Who I reached out to by the way, but they did not provide a comment, whereas Okta did. We'll share that later. I mean, where do we start on this, Erik? >> It's a great question, "Where do we start?" As you know, our motto here is opinions only exist due to a lack of data, so I'm going to start with the data. What we were able to do is because we had a survey that was in the field when the news broke, is that we were able to observe the data in realtime. So we sequestered the data up until that moment when it was announced, so before March 23rd and then after March 23rd. And although most of the responses came in prior, so it wasn't as much of an end as we would've liked. It really was telling to see the difference of how the survey responses changed from before the breach was announced to after, and we can get into a little bit more- >> So let's... Sorry, sorry to interrupt, let's bring that up, let's look at some of that data. And as followers of this program know... Let me just set it up, Erik. Every quarter, ETR, they have a proprietary net score methodology to determine customer spending momentum, and that's what we're talking about here. Essentially measuring the net number of customers spending more on a particular product or platform. So apologize for interrupting, but you're on this data right here. >> Not at all. >> So take us through this. >> Yeah, so again, let's caveat. Okta is still a premier company in our work. Top five in overall security, not just in their niche, and they still remained extremely strong at the end of the survey. However, when you kind of look at that at a more of a micro analysis, what you noticed was a true difference between before March 23rd and after. Overall, their cumulative net score or proprietary spending intention score that we use, was 56% prior. That dropped to 44% during the time period after, that is a significant drop. Even a little bit more telling, and again, small sample size, I want to be very fair about that. Before March 23rd, only three of our community members indicated any indication of replacing Okta. That number went to eight afterwards. So again, small number, but a big difference when you're talking about a percentage change. >> Yeah, so that's that sort of green line that was shown there. You know, not too damaging, but definitely a noticeable downturn with the caveat that it's a small end. But here's the thing that I love working with you, we didn't stop there. You went out, you talked to customers, I talked to a number of customers. You actually organized a panel. This week, Erik hosted a deep dive on the topic with CISOs. And we have, if we could bring up that next slide, Alex. These are some of the top CISOs in the community, and I'm going to just summarize the comments and then turn it over to you, Erik. The first one was really concerning, "We heard about this in the media," ooh, ooh, ouch. Next one, "Not a huge hit, but loss of trust." "We can't just shut Okta off like SolarWinds." So there's definitely a lock in effect there. "We may need to hire new people," i.e, "There's a business impact to us beyond the technical impact." "We're rethinking contract negotiations with Okta." And bottom line, "It's still a strong solution." "We're not really worried about our Okta environment, but this is a trust and communications issue." Erik, these are painful to read, and in the end of the day, Okta has to own this. Todd McKinnon did acknowledge this. As I said at the top, there are domino business impacts that Okta may not be seeing. What are your thoughts? >> There's a lot we're going to need to get into in a little bit, and I think you were spot on earlier, when McKinnon said there was no impact. And that's not actually true, there's a lot of peripheral, derivative impact that was brought up in our panel. Before we even did the panel though, I do want to say we went out quickly to about 20 customers and asked them if they were willing to give an opinion. And it was sort of split down the middle where about, you know, half of them were saying, "You know, this is okay. We're going to stand by 'em, Okta's the best in the industry." A few were cautious, "Opinion's unchanged, but we're going to take a look deeper." And then another 40% were just flat out negative. And again, small sample size, but you don't want to see that. It's indicative of reputational damage right away. That was what led us to say, "You know what, let's go do this panel." And as you know, from reading it and looking at the panel, well, a lot of topics were brought up about the derivative impact of it. And whether that's your own, you know, having to hire people to go look into your backend to deal with and manage Okta. Whether it's cyber insurance ramifications down the road, there's a lot of aspects that need to be discussed about this. >> Yeah now, so before I go on... And by the way, I've spent a fair amount of time just parsing, listening very carefully to Todd McKinnon's commentary. He did an interview with Emily Chang, it was quite useful. But before I go on, I reached out to Okta, and they were super responsive and I appreciate that. And I do believe they're taking this seriously, here's a statement they provided to theCUBE. Quote, "As a global leader in identity, we recognize the critical role Okta plays for our customers and our customers' end users. Okta has a culture of learning and improving, and we are taking the steps to prevent this from happening again. We know trust is earned, and building back our customers' trust in Okta through our actions and our ongoing support as their secure identity partner is our top priority." Okay, so look, you know, what are you going to say, right? I mean, I think they do own it. Again, the concern is the blind spots. So we put together this visual to try to explain how Okta is describing the impact, and maybe another way to look at it. So let me walk you through this. Here's a simple way in which organizations think about the impact of a breach. What's the probability of a breach, that's the vertical axis, and what's the impact on the horizontal. Now I feel as though business impact really is the financial, you know, condition. But we've narrowed this to map to Todd McKinnon's statements of the technical impact. And they've said the technical impact in terms of things customers need to do or change, is near zero, and that's the red dot that you see there. Look, the fact is, that Okta has more than 15,000 customers, and at most, 366 were directly impacted by this. That's less than 3% of the base, and it's probably less than that, they're just being conservative. And the technical impact which Todd McKinnon described in an interview, again, with Emily Chang, was near zero in terms of actions the customers had to take on things like reporting and changes and remediation. Basically negligible. But based on the customer feedback outside of that 366, that's what we're calling that blind spot and that bracket. And then we list the items that we are hearing from customers on things that they have to do now, despite that minimal exposure. Erik, this is new information that we've uncovered through the ETR process, and there's a long list of collateral impacts that you just referred to before, actions that customers have to take, right? >> Yeah, there's a lot, and the panel really brought that to life even more than I expected to be quite honest. First of all, you're right, most of them believe that this was a minimal impact. The true damage here was reputational, and the derivatives that come from it. We had one panelist say that they now have to go hire people, because, and I hate to say this, but Okta isn't known for their best professional support. So they have to go get people now in to kind of do that themselves and manage that. That's obviously not the easiest thing to do in this environment. We had other ones express concern about, "Hey I'm an Okta customer. When I have to do my cyber insurance renewal, is my policy going to go up? Is my premium going to go up?" And it's not something that they even want to have to handle, but they do. There were a lot of concerns. One particular person didn't think the impact was minimal, and I just think it's worth bringing up. There was no demand for ransom here. So there were only two and a half percent of Okta customers that were hit, but we don't know what the second play is, right, this could just be stage one. And I think that there was one particular person on the panel who truly believes that, that could be the case, that this was just the first step. And in his opinion, there wasn't anything specific about those 366 customers that made him feel like the bad actor was targeting them. So he does believe that this might be a step one of a step two situation. Now that's a, you know, bit of an alarmist opinion and the rest of the panel didn't really echo it, but it is something that's kind of worth bringing up out there. >> Well, you know, it just pays to be paranoid. I mean, you know, it was reported that supposedly, this hack was done by a 16-year-old in England, out of his, you know, mother's house, but who knows? You know, other actors might have paid that individual to see what they could do. It could have been a little bit of reconnaissance, throw the pawn in there and see how, you know, what the response is like. So I want to parse some of Todd McKinnon's statements from that Bloomberg interview. Look, we've always, you and I both have been impressed with Okta, and Todd McKinnon's management. His decisions, execution, leadership, super impressive individual. You know, big fans of the company. And in the interview, it looked like (chuckles) the guy hadn't slept in three weeks, so really you have to feel for him. But I think there are some statements that have to be unpacked. The first one, McKinnon took responsibility and talked about how they'll be transparent about steps they're taking in the future to avoid you know, similar problems. We talked about the near-zero technical impact, we don't need to go there anymore. But Erik, the two things that struck me as communication misfires were the last two. Especially the penultimate statement there, quote, "The competitor product was at fault for this breach." You know, by the way, I believe this to be true. Evidently, Sitel was not using Okta as its identity access platform. You know, we're all trying to figure out who that is. I can tell you it definitely was not CyberArk, we're still digging to find out who. But you know, you can't say in my view, "We are taking responsibility," and then later say it was the competitor's fault. And I know that's not what he meant, but that's kind of how it came across. And even if it's true, you just don't say that later in a conversation after saying that, "We own it." Now on the last point, love your thoughts on this, Erik? My first reaction was Okta's throwing Sitel under the bus. You know, Okta's asking for forgiveness from its customers, but it just shot its partner, and I kind of get it. This shows that they're taking action but I would've preferred something like, "Look, we've suspended our use of Sitel for the time being pending a more detailed review. We've shut down that relationship to block any exposures. Our focus right now is on customers, and we'll take a look at that down the road." But I have to say in looking at the timeline, it looks like Sitel did hide the ball a little bit, and so you can't blame 'em. And you know, what are your thoughts on that? >> Well, I'll go back to my panelists again, who unanimously agreed this was a masterclass on how not to handle crisis management. And I do feel for 'em, they're a fantastic management team. The acquisition of Auth0 alone, was just such a brilliant move that you have to kind of wonder what went wrong here, they clearly were blindsided. I agree with you that Sitel was not forthcoming quickly enough, and I have a feeling that, that's what got them in this position, in a bad PR. However, you can't go ahead and fire your partner and then turn around and ask other people not to fire you. Particularly until a very thorough investigation and a root cause analysis has been released to everyone. And the customers that I have spoken to don't believe that, that is done yet. Now, when I ask them directly, "Would you consider leaving Okta?" Their answers were, "No, it is not easy to rip and replace, and we're not done doing our due diligence." So it's interesting that Okta's customers are giving them that benefit of the doubt, but we haven't seen it, you know, flow the other way with Okta's partner. >> Yeah, and that's why I would've preferred a different public posture, because who knows? I mean, is Sitel the only partner that's not using Okta as its identity management, who knows? I'd like to learn more about that. And to your point, you know, maybe Okta's got to vertically integrate here and start, you know, supporting the lower level stuff directly itself, you know, and/or tightening up those partnerships. Now of course, the impact on Okta obviously has been really serious, big hit on the stock. You know, they're piling on inflation and quantitative tightening and rate hikes. But the real damage, as we've said, is trust and reputation, which Okta has earned, and now it has to work hard to earn back. And it's unfortunate. Look, Okta was founded in 2009 and in over a decade, you know, by my count, there have been no major incidents that are obvious. And we've seen the damage that hackers can do by going after the digital supply chain and third and fourth party providers. You know, rules on disclosure is still not tight and that maybe is part of the problem here. Perhaps the new law The House just sent over to President Biden, is going to help. But the point, Erik, is Okta is not alone here. It feels like they got what looked like a benign alert. Sitel wasn't fully transparent, and Okta is kind of fumbling on the comms, which creates this spiraling effect. Look, we're going to have to wait for the real near-term and midterm impacts, but longterm, I personally believe Okta is going to be fine. But they're going to have to sacrifice some margin possibly in the near to midterm, and go through more pain to regain the loyalty of its customers. And I really would like to hear from Okta that they understand that customers, the impact of this breach to customers, actually does go beyond the 366 that were possibly compromised. Erik, I'll give you the final word. >> Yeah, there's a couple of things there if I can have a moment, and yes, Okta... Well, there was a great quote, one of the guys said, "Okta's built like a tank, but they just gave the keys to a 16 year old valet." So he said, "There is some concern here." But yes, they are best of breed, they are the leader, but there is some concern. And every one of the guys I spoke to, all CISOs, said, "This is going to come up at renewal time. At a minimum, this is leverage. I have to ask them to audit their third parties and their partners. I have to bring this up when it comes time." And then the other one that's a little bit of a concern is data-wise. We saw Ping Identity jump big, from 9% net score to 24% net score. Don't know if it's causative or correlated, but it did happen. Another thing to be concerned about out there, is Microsoft is making absolutely massive strides in security. And all four of the panelists said, "Hey, I've got an E5 license, why don't I get the most out of it? I'm at least going to look." So for Okta to say, you know, "Hey, there's no impact here," it's just not true, there is an impact, they're saying what they need to say. But there's more to this, you know, their market cap definitely got hit. But you know, I think over time if the market stabilized, we could see that recover. It's a great management team, but they did just open the door for a big, big player like Microsoft. And you and I also both know that there's a lot of emerging names out there too, that would like to, you know, take a little bit of that share. >> And you know, but here's the thing, I want to keep going here for a minute. Microsoft got hit by lapses, Nvidia got hit by lapses. But I think, Erik, I feel like people, "Oh yeah, Microsoft, they get hit all the time." They're kind of used to it with Microsoft, right? So that's why I'm saying, it's really interesting here. Customers want to consolidate their security portfolio and the number of tools that they have, you know. But then you look at something like this and you say, "Okay, we're narrowing the blast radius. You know, maybe we have to rethink that and that creates more complexity," and so it's a very complicated situation. But you know, your point about Microsoft is ironic, right. Because you know, when you see Microsoft, Amazon, you know, customers get hit all the time and it's oftentimes the fault of the customer, or the partner. And so it seems like, again, coming back to the comms of this, is that really is the one thing that they just didn't get right. >> Yeah, the biggest takeaway from this without a doubt is it's not the impact of the breach, it was the impact of their delay and how they handled it and how they managed it. That's through the course of 25 CISOs I've spoken to now, that's unanimous. It's not about that this was a huge damaging hit, but the damage really came from their reaction or lack thereof. >> Yeah, and it's unfortunate, 'cause it feels like a lot of it was sort of, I want to say out of their control because obviously they could have audited the partners. But still, I feel like they got thrown a curve ball that they really had a, you know, difficult time, you know, parsing through that. All right, hey, we got to leave it there for now. Thank you, Erik Bradley, appreciate you coming on, It's always a pleasure to have you >> Always good talking to you too, Dave, thanks a lot. >> ETR team, you guys are amazing, do some great work. I want to thank Stephanie Chan, who helps me with background research for "Breaking Analysis". Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, help get the word out, as do some others. Alex Myerson on production, Alex, thank you. And Rob Hof, is our EIC at SiliconANGLE. Remember, all these episodes, they are available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, just search, "Breaking Analysis podcast." I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Check out etr.ai, it's the best in the business for real customer data real-time, near real-time, awesome platform. You can reach out to me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com, or @DVellante, or comment on my LinkedIn post. This is Dave Vellante, for Erik Bradley, and "theCUBE Insights", powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, be well, and we'll see you next time. (bright music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> New data from ETR's soon to be released April survey, shows a clear deceleration in spending and a more cautious posture from technology buyers. Just this week, we saw sell side downgrades in hardware companies like Dell and HP and revised guidance from high flyer UiPath, citing exposures to Russia, Europe and certain sales execution challenges, but these headlines, we think are a canary in the coal mine. According to ETR analysis and channel checks in theCUBE, the real story is these issues are not isolated. Rather we're seeing signs of caution from buyers across the board in enterprise tech. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we are the bearers of bad news. Don't shoot the messenger. We'll share a first look at fresh data that suggests a tightening in tech spending calling for 6% growth this year which is below our January prediction of 8% for 2022. Now, unfortunately the party may be coming to an end at least for a while. You know, it's really not surprising, right? We've had a two year record run in tech spending and meteoric rises in high flying technology stocks. Hybrid work, equipping and securing remote workers. The forced march to digital that we talk about sometimes. These were all significant tailwinds for tech companies. The NASDAQ peaked late last year and then as you can see in this chart, bottomed in mid-March of 2022, and it made a nice run up through the 29th of last month, but the mini rally appears to be in jeopardy with FED rate hikes, Russia, supply chain challenges. There's a lot of uncertainty so we should expect the C-suite to be saying, hey, wait slow down. Now we don't think the concerns are confined to companies with exposure to Russia and Europe. We think it's more broad based than that and we're seeing caution from technology companies and tech buyers that we think is prudent, given the conditions. You know, looks like the two year party has ended and as my ETR colleague Erik Bradley said, a little hangover shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. So let's get right to the new spending data. I'm limited to what I can share with you today because ETR is in its quiet period and hasn't released full results yet outside of its client base. But, they did put out an alert today and I can share this slide. It shows the expectation on spending growth from more than a thousand CIOs and IT buyers who responded in the most recent survey. It measures their expectations for spending. The key focus areas that I want you to pay attention to in this data are the yellow bars. The most recent survey is the yellow compared to the blue and the gray bars, which are the December and September '21 surveys respectively. And you can see a steep drop from last year in Q1, lowered expectations for Q2 in the far right, a drop from nearly 9% last September to around 6% today. Now you may think a 200 basis point downgrade from our prediction in January of 8% seems somewhat benign, but in a $4 trillion IT market, that's 80 billion coming off the income statements of some tech companies. Now the good news is that 6% growth is still very healthy and higher than pre pandemic spending levels. And the buyers we've talked to this week are saying, look, we're still spending money. We just have to be more circumspect about where and how fast. Now, there were a few other callouts in the ETR data and in my discussions today with Erik Bradley on this. First, it looks like in response to expected supply chain constraints that buyers pulled forward their orders late last year and earlier this year. You remember when we couldn't buy toilet paper, people started the stockpile and it created this rubber banding effect. So we see clear signs of receding momentum in the PC and laptop market. But as we said, this is not isolated to PCs, UiPath's earning guidance confirm this but the story doesn't end there. This isn't isolated to UiPath in our view, rather it's a more based slowdown. The other big sign is spending in outsourced IT which is showing a meaningful deceleration in the last survey, showing a net score drop from 13% in January to 6% today. Net score remember is a measure of the net percentage of customers in the survey that on balance are spending more than last survey. It's derived by subtracting the percent of customers spending less from those spending more. And there's a, that's a 700 basis point drop in three months. This isn't a market where you can't hire enough people. The percent of companies hiring has gone from 10% during the pandemic to 50% today according to recent data from ETR. And we know there's still an acute skills shortage. So you would expect more IT outsourcing, but you don't see that in the data, it's down. And as this quote from Erik Bradley explains, historically, when outsourced IT drops like this, especially in a tight labor market, it's not good news for IT spending. All right, now, the other interesting callout from ETR were some specific company names that appear to be seeing the biggest change in spending momentum. Here's the list of those companies that all have meaningful exposure to Europe. That's really where the focus was. SAP has big exposure to on-premises installations and of course, Europe as well. ServiceNow has European exposure and also broad based exposure in IT in across the globe, especially in the US. Zoom didn't go to the moon, no surprise there given the quasi return to work and Zoom fatigue. McAfee is a bit of a concern because security seemed to be one of those areas, when you look at some of the other data, that is per actually insulated from all the spending caution. Of course we saw the Okta hack and we're going to cover that next week with hopefully some new data from ETR, but generally security's been holding up pretty well. You look at CrowdStrike, you look at Zscaler in particular. Adobe's another company that's had a nice bounce in the last couple of weeks. Accenture, again, speaks to that outsourcing headwinds that we mentioned earlier. And now the Google Cloud platform is a bit of a concern. It's still elevated overall, you know but down and well down in Europe. Under that magic, you know we often show that magic 40% dotted line, that red dotted line of net score anything above that we cite as elevated. Well, some important callouts to hear that you see companies that have Euro exposure. And again, we see this as just not confined to Europe and this is something we're going to pay close attention to and continue to report on in the next several weeks and months. All right, so what should we expect from here? The Ark investment stocks of Cathie Wood fame have been tracking in a downward trend since last November, meaning, you know, these high PE stocks are making lower lows and higher, sorry, lower highs and lower lows since then, right? The trend is not their friend. Investors I talk to are being much more cautious about buying the dip. They're raising cash and being a little bit more patient. You know, traders can trade in this environment but unless you can pay attention to in a minute by minute you're going to get whipsawed. Investors tell me that they're still eyeing big tech even though Apple has been on a recent tear and has some exposure with supply change challenges, they're looking for maybe entry points in, within that chop for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. And look, as I've been stressing, 6% spending growth is still very solid. It's a case of resetting the outlook relative to previous expectations. So when you zoom out and look at the growth in data, getting digital right, security investments, automation, cloud, AI containers, all the fundamentals are really strong and they have not changed. They're all powering this new digital economy and we believe it's just prudence versus a shift in the importance of IT. Now, one point of caution is there's a lot of discussion around a shift in global economies. Supply chain uncertainty, persistent semiconductor shortages especially in areas like, you know driver ICs and boring things like parts for displays and analog and micro controllers and power regulators. Stuff that's, you know, just not playing nice these days and wreaking havoc. And this creates uncertainty, which sometimes can pick up momentum in a snowballing effect. And that's something that we're watching closely and we're going to be vigilant reporting to you when we see changes in the data and in our forecast even when we think our forecast are wrong. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Merson who does the production and podcasts for Breaking Analysis and Stephanie Chan who provides background research. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, and all theCUBE writers they help get the word out, and thanks to Rob Hof, our EIC over at SiliconANGLE. Remember I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcasts. etr.ai that's where you can get access to all this survey data and make your own cuts. It's awesome, check that out. Keep in touch with me. You can email me at dave.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can hit me up on LinkedIn. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Be safe, stay well, and we'll see you next time. (gentle music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The pandemic precipitated what is shaping up to be a permanent shift in cybersecurity spending patterns. As a direct result of hybrid work, CSOs have vested heavily in endpoint security, identity access management, cloud security, and further hardening the network beyond the headquarters. We've reported on this extensively in this Breaking Analysis series. Moreover, the need to build security into applications from the start rather than bolting protection on as an afterthought has led to vastly high heightened awareness around DevSecOps. Finally, attacking security as a data problem with automation and AI is fueling new innovations in cyber products and services and startups. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we present our quarterly findings in the security industry, and share the latest ETR survey data on the spending momentum and market movers. Let's start with the most recent news in cybersecurity. Nary a week goes by without more concerning news. The latest focus in the headlines is, of course, Russia's relentless cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in the Ukraine, including banking, government websites, weaponizing information. The hacker group, BlackByte, put a double whammy on the San Francisco 49ers, meaning they exfiltrated data and they encrypted the organization's files as part of its ransomware attack. Then there's the best Super Bowl ad last Sunday, the Coinbase floating QR code. Did you catch that? As people rushed to scan the code and participate in the Coinbase Bitcoin giveaway, it highlights yet another exposure, meaning we're always told not to click on links that we don't trust or we've never seen, but so many people activated this random QR code on their smartphones that it crashed Coinbase's website. What does that tell you? In other news, Securonix raised a billion dollars. They did this raise on top of Lacework's massive $1.3 billion raise last November. Both of these companies are attacking security with data automation and APIs that can engage machine intelligence. Securonix, specifically in the announcement, mentioned the uptake from MSSPs, managed security service providers, something we've talked about in this series. And that's a trend that we see as increasingly gaining traction as customers are just drawing in and drowning in security incidents. Peter McKay's company, Snyk, acquired Fugue, a company focused on making sure security policies are consistent throughout the software development life cycle. It's a really an example of a developer-defined security approach where policy can be checked at the dev, deployment, and production phases to ensure the same policies are in place at all stages, including monitoring at runtime. Fugue, according to Crunchbase, had raised $85 million to date. In some other company news, Cisco was rumored to be acquiring Splunk for not much more than Splunk is worth today. And the talks reportedly broke down. This would be a major move in security by Cisco and underscores the pressure to consolidate. Cisco would get an extremely strong customer base and through efficiencies could improve Splunk's profitability, but it seems like the premium Cisco was willing to pay was not enough to entice board to act. Splunk board, that is. Datadog blew away its earnings, and the stock was up 12%. It's pulled back now, thanks to Putin, but it's one of those companies that is disrupting Splunk. Datadog is less than half the size of Splunk, revenue-wise, but its valuation is more than 2 1/2 times greater. Finally, Elastic, another Splunk disruptor, settled its trademark dispute with AWS, and now AWS will now stop using the name Elasticsearch. All right, let's take a high level look at how cyber companies have performed in the stock market over time. Here's a graph of the Cyber ETF, and you can see the March 1st crosshairs of 2020 signifying the start of the lockdown. The trajectory of cybersecurity stocks is shown by the orange and blue lines, and it surely has steepened post March of 2020. And, of course, it's been down with the market lately, but the run up, as you can see, was substantial and eclipsed the trajectory of the previous cycles over the last couple of years, owing much of the momentum to the spending dynamics that we talked about at our open. Let's now drill into some of the names that we've been following over the last few years and take a look at the firm level. This chart shows some data that we've been tracking since before the pandemic. The top rows show the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ prices, and the bottom rows show specific stocks. The first column is the index price or the market cap of the company just before the pandemic, then the same data one year later. Then the next column shows the peak value during the pandemic, and then the current value. Then it shows in the next column where it is today, in percentage terms, i.e., how far has it pulled back from the peak, then the delta from pre-pandemic, in other words, how much did the issue earn or lose during the pandemic for investors? We then compare the pre-pandemic revenue multiple using a trailing 12-month revenue metric. Sorry, that's what we used. It's easy to get. (laughs) And that's the revenue multiple compared to the August in 2020, when multiples were really high, and where they are today, and then a recent quarterly growth rate guide based on the last earnings report. That's the last column. Okay, so I'm throwing a lot of data at you here, but what does it tell us? First, the S&P and the NAS are well up from pre-pandemic levels, yet they're off 9% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks today. That was earlier on Friday morning. Now let's look at the names more closely. Splunk has been struggling. It definitely had a tailwind from the pandemic as all boats seem to rise, but its execution has been lacking. It's now 30% off from its pre-pandemic levels. (groans) And it's multiple is compressing, and perhaps Cisco thought it could pick up the company for a discount. Now let's talk about Palo Alto Networks. We had reported on some of the challenges the company faced moving into a cloud-friendly model. that was before the pandemic. And we talked about the divergence between Palo Alto's stock price and the valuations relative to Fortinet, and we said at the time, we fully expected Palo Alto to rebound, and that's exactly what happened. It rode the tailwinds of the last two years. It's up over 100% from its pre-COVID levels, and its revenue multiple is expanding, owing to the nice growth rates. Now Fortinet had been doing well coming into the pandemic. In fact, we said it was executing on a cloud strategy better than Palo Alto Networks, hence that divergence in valuations at the time. So it didn't get as much of a boost from the pandemic. Didn't get that momentum at first, but the company's been executing very well. And as you can see, with 155% increase in valuation since just before the pandemic, it's going more than okay for Fortinet. Now, Okta is a name that we've really followed closely, the identity access management specialist that rocketed. But since it's Auth0 acquisition, it's pulled back. Investors are concerned about its guidance and its profitability. And several analyst have downgraded their price targets on Okta. We still really like the company. The Auth0 acquisition gives Okta a developer vector, and we think the company is going hard after market presence and is willing to sacrifice short-term profitability. We actually like that posture. It's very Frank Slupin-like. This company spends a lot of money on R&D and go-to-market. The question is, does Okta have inherent profitability? The company, as they say, spends a ton in some really key areas but it looks to us like it's going to establish a footprint. It's guiding revenue CAGR in the mid-30s over the mid to long-term and near term should beat that benchmark handily. But you can see the red highlights on Okta. And even though Okta is up 59% from its pre-pandemic levels, it's far behind its peers shown in the chart, especially CrowdStrike and Zscaler, the latter being somewhat less impacted by the pullback in stocks recently, of course, due to the fears of inflation and interest rates, and, of course, Russian invasion escalation. But these high flyers, they were bound to pull back. The question is can they maintain their category leadership? And for the most part, we think they can. All right, let's get into some of the ETR data. Here's our favorite XY view with net score, or spending momentum on the Y-axis, and market share or pervasiveness in the data center on the horizontal axis. That red 40% line, that indicates a highly elevated spending level. And the chart inserts to the right, that shows how the data is plotted with net score and shared N in each of the columns by each company. Okay, so this is an eye chart, but there really are three main takeaways. One is that it's a crowded market. And this shows only the companies ETR captures in its survey. We filtered on those that had more than 50 mentions. So there's others in the ETR survey that we're not showing here, and there are many more out there which don't get reported in the spending data in the ETR survey. Secondly, there are a lot of companies above the 40% mark, and plenty with respectable net scores just below. Third, check out SentinelOne, Elastic, Tanium, Datadog, Netskope, and Darktrace. Each has under 100 N's but we're watching these companies closely. They're popping up in the survey, and they're catching our attention, especially SentinelOne, post-IPO. So we wanted to pare this back a bit and filter the data some more. So let's look at companies with more than 100 mentions in the same chart. It gets a little cleaner this picture, but it's still crowded. Auth0 leads everyone in net score. Okta is also up there, so that's very positive sign since they had just acquired Auth0. CrowdStrike SalePoint, Cyberark, CloudFlare, and Zscaler are all right up there as well. And then there's the bigger security companies. Palo Alto Network, very impressive because it's well above the 40% mark, and it has a big presence in the survey, and, of course, in the market. And Microsoft as well. They're such a big whale. They skew the data for everybody else to kind of mess up these charts. And the position of Cisco and Splunk make for an interesting combination. They get both decent net scores, not above the 40% line but they got a good presence in the survey as well. Thinking about the acquisition, Al Shugart was the CEO of of Seagate, and founder. Brilliant Silicon valley icon and engineer. Great business person. I was asking him one time, hey, you thinking about buying this company or that company? And of course, he's not going to tell me who he's thinking about buying or acquiring. He said, let me just tell you this. If you want to know what I'm thinking, ask yourself if it were free, would you take it? And he said the answer's not always obviously yes, because acquisitions can be messy and disruptive. In the case of Cisco and Splunk, I think the answer would be a definitive yes It would expand Cisco's portfolio and make it the leader in security, with an opportunity to bring greater operating leverage to Splunk. Cisco's just got to pay more if it wants that asset. It's got to pay more than the supposed $20 billion offer that it made. It's going to have to get kind of probably north of 23 billion. I pinged my ETR colleague, Erik Bradley, on this, and he generally agreed. He's very close to the security space. He said, Splunk isn't growing the customer base but the customers are sticky. I totally agree. Cisco could roll Splunk into its security suite. Splunk is the leader in that space, security information and event management, and Cisco really is missing that piece of the pie. All right, let's filter the data even more and look at some of the companies that have moved in the survey over the past year and a half. We'll go back here to July 2020. Same two-dimensional chart. And we're isolating here Auth0, Okta, SalePoint CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Cyberark, Fortinet, and Cisco. No Microsoft. That cleans up the chart. Okay, why these firms? Because they've made some major moves to the right, and some even up since last July. And that's what this next chart shows. Here's the data from the January 2022 survey. The arrow start points show the position that we just showed you earlier in July 2020, and all these players have made major moves to the right. How come? Well, it's likely a combination of strong execution, and the fact that security is on the radar of every CEO, CIO, of course, CSOs, business heads, boards of directors. Everyone is thinking about security. The market momentum is there, especially for the leaders. And it's quite tremendous. All right, let's now look at what's become a bit of a tradition with Breaking Analysis, and look at the firms that have earned four stars. Four-star firms are leaders in the ETR survey that demonstrate both a large presence, that's that X-axis that we showed you, and elevated spending momentum. Now in this chart, we filter the N's. Has to be greater than 100. And we isolate on those companies. So more than 100 responses in the survey. On the left-hand side of the chart, we sort by net score or spending velocity. On the right-hand side, we sort by shared N's or presence in the dataset. We show the top 20 for each of the categories. And the red line shows the top 10 cutoffs. Companies that show up in the top 10 for both spending momentum and presence in the data set earn four stars. If they show up in one, and make the top 10 in one, and make the top 20 in the other, they get two stars. And we've added a one-star category as honorable mention for those companies that make the top 20 in both categories. Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Okta make the four-star grade. Okta makes it even without Auth0, which has the number one net score in this data set with 115 shared N to boot. So you can add that to Okta. The weighted average would pull Okta's net score to just above Cyberark's into fourth place. And its shared N would bump Okta up to third place on the right-hand side of the chart Cisco, Splunk, Proofpoint, KnowBe4, Zscaler, and Cyberark get two stars. And then you can see the honorable mentions with one star. Now thinking about a Cisco, Splunk combination. You'd get an entity with a net score in the mid-20s. Yeah, not too bad, definitely respectable. But they'd be number one on the right-hand side of this chart, with the largest market presence in the survey by far. Okay, let's wrap. The trends around hybrid work, cloud migration and the attacker escalation that continue to drive cybersecurity momentum and they're going to do so indefinitely. And we've got some bullet points here that you're seeing private companies, (laughs) they're picking up gobs of money, which really speaks to the fact that there's no silver bullet in this market. It's complex, chaotic, and cash-rich. This idea of MSSPs on the rise is going to continue, we think. About half the mid-size and large organization in the US don't have a SecOps, a security operation center, and outsourcing to one that can be tapped on a consumption basis, cloud-like, as a service just makes sense to us. We see the momentum that companies that we've highlighted over the many quarters of Breaking Analysis are forming. They're forming a strong base in the market. They're going for market share and footprint, and they're focusing on growth, at bringing in new talent. They have good balance sheets and strong management teams and we think they'll be leading companies in the future, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Okta, SentinelOne, Cyberark, SalePoint, over time, joining the ranks of billion dollar cyber firms, when I say billion dollar, billion dollar revenue like Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, and Splunk, if it doesn't get acquired. These independent firms that really focus on security. Which underscores the pressure and consolidation and M&A in the whole space. It's almost assured with the fragmentation of companies and so many new entrants fighting for escape velocity that this market is going to continue with robust M&A and consolidation. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to my colleague, Stephanie Chan, who helped research this week's topics, and Alex Myerson on the production team. He also manages the Breaking Analysis podcast. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, who get the word out. Thank you to all. Remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. Check out ETR's website at etr.ai. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. @dvellante is my DM. Comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week. Be safe, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE in ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Every CEO is figuring out the right balance for new hybrid business models. Now, regardless of the chosen approach, which is going to vary, technology executives, they understand they have to accelerate their digital and build resilience as well as optionality into their platforms. Now, this is driving a dramatic shift in IT investments. And at the macro level, we expect total spending to increase at as much as 8% or even more in 2021, compared to last year's contraction. Investments in cybersecurity, cloud collaboration that are enabling hybrid work as well as data, including analytics, AI, and automation are at the top of the spending priorities for CXOs. Hello everyone. And welcome to this week's Wiki Bond Cube insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we're pleased to welcome back Erik Bradley, who is the chief engagement strategist at our partner, ETR. Now in this segment, we're going to share some of the latest findings from ETR's surveys and provide our commentary on what it means for the markets, for sellers, and for buyers. Erik, great to see you, my friend. Welcome back to Breaking Analysis. >> Thank you for having me, always enjoy it. We've got some fresh data to talk about on this beautiful summer Friday, so I'm ready to go. >> All right. I'm excited too. Okay, last year we saw a contraction in IT spending by at least 5%. And now we're seeing a snapback to, as I said, at least 8% growth relative to last year. You got to go back to 2007 just before the financial crisis to see this type of top line growth. The shift to hybrid work, it's exposed us to new insidious security threats. And we're going to discuss that in a lot more detail. Cloud migration of course picked up dramatically last year, and based on the recent earnings results of the big cloud players, for now we got two quarters of data, that trend continues as organizations are accelerating their digital platform build-outs, and this is bringing a lot of complexity and a greater need for so-called observability solutions, which Erik is going to talk about extensively later on in this segment. Data, we think is entering a new era of de-centralization. We see organizations not only focused on analytics and insights, but actually creating data products. Leading technology organizations like JP Morgan, they're heavily leaning into this trend toward packaging and monetizing data products. And finally, as part of the digital transformation trend, we see no slow down in spending momentum for AI and automation, generally in RPA specifically. Erik, anything you want to add to that top level narrative? >> Yeah, there's a lot to take on the macro takeaways. The first thing I want to state is that that 8, 8.5% number that started off at just 3 to 4% beginning of the year. So as the year has continued, we are just seeing this trend in budgets continue to accelerate, and we don't have any reason to believe that's going to stop. So I think we're going to just keep moving on heading into 2021. And we're going to see a banner year of spend this year and probably next as well. >> All right, now we're going to bring up a chart that shows kind of that progression here of spending momentum. So Erik, I'm going to let you comment on this chart that tracks those projections over time. >> Erik: Yeah. Great. So thank you very much for pulling this up. As you can see in the beginning part of the year, when we asked people, "What do you plan to spend throughout 2021?" They were saying it would be about a 4% increase. Which we were happy with because as you said last year, it was all negative. That continues to accelerate and is only hyper accelerating now as we head into the back half of the year. In addition, after we do this data, I always host a panel of IT end users to kind of get their feedback on what we collected, to a man, every one of them expects continued increase throughout next year. There are some concerns and uncertainty about what we're seeing right now with COVID, but even with that, they're planning their budgets now for 2022 and they're planning for even further increases going forward. >> Dave: Great, thank you. So we circled that 8%. That's really kind of where we thought it was going to land. And so we're happy with that number, but let's take a look at where the action is by technology sector. This chart that we're showing you here, it tracks spending priorities back to last September. When I believe that was the point, Erik, that cyber became the top priority in the survey, ahead of cloud collaboration, analytics, and data, and the other sectors that you see there. Now, Erik, we should explain. These areas, they're the top seven, and they outrank all the other sectors. ETR tracks many, many other sectors, but please weigh in here and share your thoughts on this data. >> Erik: Yeah. Security, security, security. It hasn't changed. It had really hasn't. The hybrid work. The fact that you're behind the firewall one day and then you're outside working from home the next, switching in and out of networks. This is just a field day for bad actors. And we have no choice right now, but to continue to spend, because as you're going to talk about in a minute, hybrid's here to stay. So we have to figure out a way to secure behind the firewall on-prem. We also have to secure our employees and our assets that are not in the office. So it is a main priority. One of the things that point out on this chart, I had a couple of ITN users talk to me about customer experience and automation really need to move from the right part of that chart to the left. So they're seeing more in what you were talking about in RPA and automation, starting to creep up heading into next year. As cloud migration matures, as you know, cybersecurity spending has been ramping up. People are going to see a little bit more on the analytics and a little bit more on the automation side going forward. >> Dave: Great. Now, this next data view- well, first of all, one of the great things about the ETR dataset is that you can ask key questions and get a time series. And I will tell you again, I go back to last March, ETR hit it. They were the first on the work from home trend. And so if you were on that trend, you were able to anticipate it. And a lot of investors I think took advantage of that. Now, but we've shown this before, but there's new data points that we want to introduce. So the data tracks how CIOs and IT buyers have responded to the pandemic since last March. Still 70% of the organizations have employees working remotely, but 39% now have employees fully returning to the office and Erik, the rest of the metrics all point toward positives for IT spending, although accelerating IT deployments there at the right peaked last year, as people realized they had to invest in the future. Your thoughts? >> Erik: Yeah, this is the slide for optimism, without a doubt. Of the entire macro survey we did, this is the most optimistic slide. It's great for overall business. It's great for business travel. This is well beyond just IT. Hiring is up. I've had some people tell me that they possibly can't hire enough people right now. They had to furlough employees, they had to stop projects, and they want to re accelerate those now. But talent is very hard to find. Another point to you about your automation and RPA, another underlying trend for there. The one thing I did want to talk about here is the hybrid workplace, but I believe there's another slide on it. So just to recap on this extremely optimistic, we're seeing a lot of hiring. We're seeing increased spending, and I do believe that that's going to continue. >> Yeah I'm glad you brought that up because a session that you and I did a while ago, we pointed out, it was earlier this year, that the skill shortage is one potential risk to our positive scenario. We'll keep an eye on that, but so I want to show another set of data that we've showed previously, but ETR again, has added some new questions in here. So note here that 60% of employees still work remotely with 33% in a hybrid model currently, and the CIO's expect that to land on about 42% hybrid workforce with around 30% working remotely, which is around, it's been consistent by the way on your surveys, but that's about double the historic norm, Eric. >> Erik: Yeah, and even further to your point Dave, recently I did a panel asking people to give me some feedback on this. And three of those four experts basically said to me, if we had greed run this survey right now, that even more people would be saying remote. That they believe that that number, that's saying they're expecting that number of people to be back in office, is actually too optimistic. They're actually saying that maybe if we had- cause as a survey launched about six, seven weeks ago before this little blip on the radar, before the little COVID hiccup we're seeing now, and they're telling me that they believe if we reran this now that it would be even more remote work, even more hybrid and less returned to the office. So that's just an update I wanted to offer on this slide. >> Dave: Yeah. Thank you for that. I mean, we're still in this kind of day to day, week to week, month to month mode, but I want to do a little double click on this. We're not going to share this data, but there was so much ETR data. We got to be selective. But if you double click on the hybrid models, you'll see that 50% of organizations plan to have time roughly equally split between onsite and remote with again around 30 or 31% mostly remote, with onsite space available if they need it. And Erik, very few don't plan to have some type of hybrid model, at least. >> Yeah, I think it was less than 10% that said it was going to be exclusively onsite. And again, that was a more optimistic scenario six, seven weeks ago than we're seeing right now throughout the country. So I agree with you, hybrid is here to stay. There really is no doubt about it. from everyone I speak to when, you know, I basically make a living talking to IT end users. Hybrid is here to stay. They're planning for it. And that's really the drive behind the spending because you have to support both. You have to give people the option. You have to, from an IT perspective, you also have to support both, right? So if somebody is in office, I need the support staff to be in office. Plus I need them to be able to remote in and fix something from home. So they're spending on both fronts right now. >> Okay. Let's get into some of the vendor performance data. And I want to start with the cloud hyperscalers. It's something that we followed pretty closely. I got some Wiki bond data, that we just had earnings released. So here's data that shows the Q2 revenue shares on the left-hand side in the pie and the growth rates for the big four cloud players on the right hand side. It goes back to Q1 2019. Now the first thing I want to say is these players generated just under $39 billion in the quarter with AWS capturing 50% of that number. I said 39, it was 29 billion, sorry, with AWS capturing 50% of that in the quarter. As you're still tracking around a third in Alibaba and GCP in the, you know, eight or 9% range. But what's most interesting to me, Erik, is that AWS, which generated almost 15 billion in the quarter, was the only player to grow its revenue, both sequentially and year over year. And Erik, I think the street is missing the real story here on Amazon. Amazon announced earnings on Thursday night. The company had a 2% miss on the top line revenues and a meaningful 22% beat on earnings per share. So the retail side of the business missed its revenue targets, so that's why everybody's freaked out. But AWS, the cloud side, saw a 4% revenue beat. So the stock was off more than 70% after hours and into Friday. Now to me, a mix shift toward AWS, that's great news for investors. Now, tepid guidance is a negative, but the shift to a more profitable cloud business is a huge positive. >> Yeah, there's a lot that goes into stock price, right? I remember I was a director of research back in the day. One of my analysts said to me, "Am I crazy for putting a $1,000 target on Amazon?" And I laughed and I said, "No, you're crazy if you don't make it $2,000." (both chuckling) So, you know, at that time it was basically the mix shift towards AWS. You're a thousand percent right. I think the tough year over year comps had something to do with that reaction. That, you know, it's just getting really hard. What's that? The law of large numbers, right? It's really hard to grow at that percentage rate when you're getting this big. But from our data perspective, we're seeing no slowdown in AWS, in cloud, none whatsoever. The only slowdown we're seeing in cloud is GCP. But to, you know, to focus on AWS, extremely strong across the board and not only just in cloud, but in all their data products as well, data and analytics. >> Yeah and I think that the AWS, don't forget folks, that funds Amazon's TAM expansion into so many different places. Okay. As we said at the top, the world of digital and hybrid work, and multi-cloud, it's more complicated than it used to be. And that means if you need to resolve issues, which everybody does, like poor application performance, et cetera, what's happening at the user level, you have to have a better way to sort of see what's going on. And that's what the emergence of the observability space is all about. So Erik, let me set this up and you have a lot of comments here because you've recently had some, and you always have had a lot of round table discussions with CXOs on this topic. So this chart plots net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis, and market share or pervasiveness in the dataset on the horizontal axis. And we inserted a table that shows the data points in detail. Now that red dotted line is just sort of Dave Vellante's subjective mark in the sand for elevated spending levels. And there are three other points here. One is Splunk as well off is two-year peak, as highlighted in the red, but Signal FX, which Splunk acquired, has made a big move northward this last quarter. As has Datadog. So Erik, what can you share with us on this hot, but increasingly crowded space? >> Yeah. I could talk about the space for a long time. As you know, I've gotten some flack over the last year and a half about, you know, kind of pointing out this trend, this negative trend in Splunk. So I do want to be the first one to say that this data set is rebounding. Splunk has been horrific in our data for going back almost two years now, straight downward trend. This is the first time we're seeing any increase, any positivity there. So I do want to be fair and state that because I've been accused of being a little too negative on Splunk in the past. But I would basically say for observability right now, it's a rising tide lifts all boats, if I can use a New England phrase. The data across the board in analytics for these observability players is up, is accelerating. None more so than Datadog. And it's exactly your point, David. The complexity, the increased cloud migration is a perfect setup for Datadog, which is a cloud native. It focuses on microservices. It focuses on cloud observability. Old Splunk was just application monitoring. Don't get me wrong, they're changing, but they were on-prem application monitoring, first and foremost. Datadog came out as cloud native. They, you know, do microservices. This is just a perfect setup for them. And not only is Datadog leading the observability, it's leading the entire analytics sector, all of it. Not just the observability niche. So without a doubt, that is the strongest that we're seeing. It's leading Dynatrace new Relic. The only one that really isn't rebounding is Cisco App Dynamics. That's getting the dreaded legacy word really attached to it. But this space is really on fire, elastic as well, really doing well in this space. New Relic has shown a little bit of improvement as well. And what I heard when I asked my panelists about this, is that because of the maturity of cloud migration, that this observability has to grow. Spending on this has to happen. So they all say the chart looks right. And it's really just about the digital transformation maturity. So that's largely what they think is happening here. And they don't really see it getting, you know, changing anytime soon. >> Yeah, and I would add, and you see that it's getting crowded. You saw a service now acquired LightStep, and they want to get into the game. You mentioned, you know, last deck of the elk stack is, you know, the open source alternative, but then we see a company who's raised a fair amount of money, startup, chaos search, coming in, going after kind of the complexity of the elk stack. You've got honeycomb, which has got a really innovative approach, Jeremy Burton's company observes. So you have venture capital coming in. So we'll see if those guys could be disruptive enough or are they, you know, candidates to get acquired? We'll see how that all- you know that well. The M and A space. You think this space is ripe for M and A? >> I think it's ripe for consolidation, M and A. Something has to shake out. There's no doubt. I do believe that all of these can be standalone. So we shall see what's happened to, you mentioned the Splunk acquisition of Signal FX, just a house cleaning point. That was really nice acceleration by Signal FX, but it was only 20 citations. We'd looked into this a little bit deeper. Our data scientists did. It appears as if the majority of people are just signaling spunk and not FX separately. So moving forward for our data set, we're going to combine those two, so we don't have those anomalies going forward. But that type of acquisition does show what we should expect to see more of in this group going forward. >> Well that's I want to mention. That's one of the challenges that any data company has, and you guys do a great job of it. You're constantly having to reevaluate. There's so much M and A going on in the industry. You've got to pick the right spots in terms of when to consolidate. There's some big, you know, Dell and EMC, for example. You know, you've beautifully worked through that transition. You're seeing, you know, open shift and red hat with IBM. You just got to be flexible. And that's where it's valuable to be able to have a pipeline to guys like Erik, to sort of squint through that. So thank you for that clarification. >> Thank you too, because having a resource like you with industry knowledge really helps us navigate some of those as well for everyone out there. So that's a lot to do with you do Dave, >> Thank you. It's going to be interesting to watch Splunk. Doug Merritt's made some, you know, management changes, not the least of which is bringing in Teresa Carlson to run go to market. So if you know, I'd be interested if they are hitting, bouncing off the bottom and rising up again. They have a great customer base. Okay. Let's look at some of the same dimensions. Go ahead. You got a comment? >> A few of ETR's clients looked at our data and then put a billion dollar investment into it too. So obviously I agree. (Dave laughing) Splunk is looking like it's set for a rebound, and it's definitely something to watch, I agree. >> Not to rat hole in this, but I got to say. When I look back, cause theCUBE gives us kind of early visibility. So companies with momentum and you talk to the customers that all these shows that we go to. I will tell you that three companies stood out last decade. It was Splunk. It was Service Now and Tableau. And you could tell just from just discussions with their customers, the enthusiasm in that customer base. And so that's a real asset, and that helps them build them a moat. So we'll see. All right, let's take a look at the same dimensions now for cyber. This is cybersecurity net score in the vertical, and market share in the horizontal. And I filtered by in greater than a hundred shared in because just gets so crowded. Erik, the only things I would point out here is CrowdStrike and Zscaler continue to shine, CyberArk also showing momentum over that 40% line. Very impressively, Palo Alto networks, which has a big presence in the market. They've bounced back. We predicted that a while back. Your round table suggested people like working with Palo Alto. They're a gold standard. You know, we had reported earlier on that divergence with four to net in terms of valuation and some of the challenges they had in cloud, clearly, you know, back with the momentum. And of course, Microsoft in the upper, right. It's just, they're literally off the charts and obviously a major player here, but your thoughts on cyber? >> Erik: Yeah. Going back to the backdrop. Security, security, security. It has been the number one priority going back to last September. No one sees it changing. It has to happen. The threat vectors are actually expanding and we have no choice but to spend here. So it is not surprising to see. You did name our three favorite names. So as you know, we look at the dataset, we see which ones have the most positive inflections, and we put outlooks on those. And you did mention Zscaler, Okta and CrowdStrike, by far the three standouts that we're seeing. I just recently did a huge panel on Okta talking about their acquisition of Auth Zero. They're pushed into Sale Point space, trying to move just from single sign on and MFA to going to really privileged account management. There is some hurdles there. Really Okta's ability to do this on-prem is something that a little bit of the IT end users are concerned about. But what we're seeing right now, both Okta and Auth Zero are two of the main adopted names in security. They look incredibly well set up. Zscaler as well. With the ZTNA push more towards zero trust, Zscaler came out so hot in their IPO. And everyone was wondering if it was going to trail off just like Snowflake. It's not trailing off. This thing just keeps going up into the right, up into the right. The data supports a lot of tremendous growth for the three names that you just mentioned. >> Yeah. Yeah. I'm glad you brought up Auth Zero. We had reported on that earlier. I just feel like that was a great acquisition. You had Okta doing the belly to belly enterprise, you know, selling. And the one thing that they really lacked was that developer momentum. And that's what Auth Zero brings. Just a smart move by Todd McKinnon and company. And I mean, so this, you know, I want to, I want to pull up another chart show a quick snapshot of some of the players in the survey who show momentum and have you comment on this. We haven't mentioned Snowflake so far, but they remain again with like this gold standard of net score, they've consistently had those high marks with regard to spending velocity. But here's some other data. Erik, how should we interpret this? >> Erik: Yeah, just to harp on Snowflake for a second. Right, I mean the rich get richer. They came out- IPO was so hyped, so it was hard for us as a research company to say, "Oh, you know, well, you know, we agree." But we did. The data is incredible. You can't beat the management team. You can't beat what they're doing. They've got so much cash. I can't wait to see what they do with it. And meanwhile, you would expect something that debuted with that high of a net score, that high of spending velocity to trail off. It would be natural. It's not Dave, it's still accelerating. It's gone even higher. It's at all time highs. And we just don't see it stopping anytime soon. It's a really interesting space right now. Maybe another name to look at on here that I think is pretty interesting, kind of a play on return to business is Kupa. It's a great project expense management tool that got hit really hard. Listen, traveling stopped, business expense stopped, and I did a panel on it. And a lot of our guys basically said, "Yeah, it was the first thing I cut." But we're seeing a huge rebound in spending there in that space. So that's a name that I think might be worth being called out on a positive side. Negative, If you look down to the bottom right of that chart, unfortunately we're seeing some issues in RingCentral and Zoom. Anything that's sort of playing in this next, you know, video conferencing, IP telephony space, they seem to be having really decelerating spending. Also now with Zoom's acquisition of five nine. I'm not really sure how RingCentral's going to compete on that. But yeah, that's one where we debuted for the first time with a negative outlook on that name. And looking and asking to some of the people in our community, a lot of them say externally, you still need IP telepany, but internally you don't. Because the You Cast communication systems are getting so sophisticated, that if I have Teams, if I have Slack, I don't need phones anymore. (chuckling) That you and I can just do a Slack call. We can do a Teams call. And many of them are saying I'm truly ripping out my IP Telepany internally as soon as possible because we just don't need it. So this whole collaboration, productivity space is here to stay. And it's got wide ranging implications to some of these more legacy type of tools. >> You know, one of the other things I'd call out on this chart is Accenture. You and I had a session earlier this year, and we had predicted that that skill shortage was going to lead to an uptick in traditional services. We've certainly seen that. I mean, IBM beat its quarter on the strength of services largely. And seeing Accenture on that is I think confirmation. >> Yeah that was our New Year prediction show, right Dave? When we made top 10 predictions? >> That's right. That was part of our predictions show. Exactly, good memory. >> The data is really showing that continue. People want the projects, they need to do the projects, but hiring is very difficult. So obviously the number one beneficiary there are going to be the Accentures of the world. >> All right. So let's do a quick wrap. I'm going to make a few comments and then have you bring us home, Erik. So we laid out our scenario for the tech spending rebound. We definitely believe last year tracked downward, along with GDP contraction. It was interesting. Gardner doesn't believe, at least factions of Gardner don't believe there's a correlation between GDP and tech spending. But, you know, I personally think there generally is some kind of relatively proportional pattern there. And I think we saw contraction last year. People are concerned about inflation. Of course, that adds some uncertainty. And as well, as you mentioned around the Delta variant. But I feel as though that the boards of directors and CEOs, they've mandated that tech execs have to build out digital platforms for the future. They're data centric. They're highly automated, to your earlier points. They're intelligent with AI infused, and that's going to take investment. I feel like the tech community has said, "Look, we know what to do here. We're dealing with hybrid work. We can't just stop doing what we're doing. Let's move forward." You know, and as you say, we're flying again and so forth. You know, getting hybrid right is a major priority that directly impacts strategies. Technology strategies, particularly around security, cloud, the productivity of remote workers with collaboration. And as we've said many times, we are entering a new era of data that's going to focus on decentralized data, building data products, and Erik let's keep an eye on this observability space. Lot of interest there, and buyers have a number of choices. You know, do they go with a specialist, as we saw recently, we've seen in the past, or did they go with the generalist like Service Now with the acquisition of LightStep? You know, it's going to be interesting. A lot of people are going to get into this space, start bundling into larger platforms. And so as you said, there's probably not enough room for all the players. We're going to see some consolidation there. But anyway, let me give you the final word here. >> Yeah, no, I completely agree with all of it. And I think your earlier points are spot on, that analytics and automation are certainly going to be moving more and more to that left of that chart we had of priorities. I think as we continue that survey heading into 2022, we'll have some fresh data for you again in a few months, that's going to start looking at 2022 priorities and overall spend. And the one other area that I keep hearing about over and over and over again is customer experience. There's a transition from good old CRM to CXM. Right now, everything is digital. It is not going away. So you need an omni-channel support to not only track your customer experience, but improve it. Make sure there's a two way communication. And it's a really interesting space. Salesforce is going to migrate into it. We've got Qualtrics out there. You've got Medallia. You've got FreshWorks, you've got Sprinkler. You got some names out there. And everyone I keep talking to on the IT end user side keeps bringing up customer experience. So let's keep an eye on that as well. >> That's a great point. And again, it brings me back to Service Now. We wrote a piece last week that's sort of, Service Now and Salesforce are on a collision course. We've said that for many, many years. And you've got this platform of platforms. They're just kind of sucking in different functions saying, "Hey, we're friends with everybody." But as you know Erik, software companies, they want to own it all. (both chuckling) All right. Hey Erik, thank you so much. I want to thank you for coming back on. It's always a pleasure to have you on Breaking Analysis. Great to see you. >> Love the partnership. Love the collaboration. Let's go enjoy this summer Friday. >> All right. Let's do. Okay, remember everybody, these episodes, they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis Podcast, click subscribe to the series. Check out ETR's website at etr.plus. They've just launched a new website. They've got a whole new pricing model. It's great to see that innovation going on. Now remember we also publish a full report every week on WikiBond.com and SiliconAngle.com. You can always email me, appreciate the back channel comments, the metadata insights. David.Vellante@SiliconAngle.com. DM me on Twitter @DVellante or comment on the LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley and theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, a good rest of summer, be well. And we'll see you next time. (inspiring music)

>> From theCube Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCube and ETR, this is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> As we reported in our last episode tech spending overall continues to be significantly muted relative to 2019. Now, our forecast continues to project a 4 to 5% decline in 2020 spending, and a tepid 2% increase in 2021. This is based on the latest data from ETR surveys of CIOs and other it buyers. Nonetheless, there continues to be some sectors and vendor bright spots in what is generally an overall challenging market. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. My name is Dave Vellante, and in this breaking analysis, we welcome back Erik Bradley from ETR to provide added color from my solo flight from last time. Erik always a pleasure to see you, thanks so much for coming back in theCube. >> I always enjoy it. Happy Friday Dave, We're almost through. >> Happy Friday. They just blend together. Guys, if you would bring up the first slide, I just want to summarize the situation. This is from ETR's latest findings, I just extracted some. And I want to go down very quickly, Erik, and then get your take. As I said, technology buyers expect the downturn for 2020, but this quarter, coming into fourth quarter, minus 3.2% was ETR's forecast, that's year to year spending decline and a 2% uptick in 2021. Now, Erik this is slightly, what I call it slightly less bad, relative to last quarter. So sequentially it's less bad. >> Yeah, there's a couple of things to break down there. So first to begin with, beginning of the year, when we launched not only our spending attention surveys, we did a simultaneous COVID impact survey, and that's where we caught originally a 5% decline was expected. So although negative 3.2 was probably the worst quarter over quarter lapse we've seen, as a matter of fact it is the lowest drop we've had theory, going into 2021, the IT people that we've actually surveyed are actually expecting a 2% increase. So there is a reason for optimism, but if we're looking at the current data set, there is no doubt the picture remains a little bit bleak. We can go into different sectors and vendors where they are impacted, but I think maybe if you're willing, I think it might be worth just sort of breaking down the demographics of the survey a little bit and how we got to that 3.2% survey over survey decline. >> Yeah, and we have a chart on that. But before we get that, I just wanted to lay out some of the other key points of your analysis. The other one, which is we talked about this in the last episode, we call it a slow thawing. Hiring an IT project freezes are thawing, with fewer companies expecting layoffs. So that gives us some bright spots, but there are definitely a widening bifurcation between vendors gaining share and those who are donating share. And then, you know, again, relative to last quarter survey we're seeing government and education and fortune 100, you guys are showing the deepest cuts from the last survey. Where's IT Telco, retail and retail consumer are showing a little bit more stability. And then of course you talked about the work from home which we've covered doubling from pre pandemic. Pretty interesting findings from your COVID survey. >> Yeah, it's a fantastic, and this is the fourth iteration of this survey that we've done now. So we've been able to track it very quickly, launched it in the field when we realized the true impact of what was happening in early March. This is our fourth version, and we've been able to track it overall. Yes, without a doubt government, education are being the biggest impact, the biggest declines without a doubt. Now, clearly the caveat to that is if there's any sort of government policy maybe those could actually help a little bit, but for right now, those are getting hit the most. Retail consumer is fairing much, much better, and the IT companies, as generally, we're seeing in the market as well, they can, you know, are still spending money and still moving. But the reason for optimism actually comes from multiple metrics. And I will say, we have caught a bottom on all of the negative metrics at this point. Now, who knows what will happen the next time we do it, right? The world is always fluid. But based on this, this is our fourth iteration of this survey, whether it be IT projects being frozen, whether it be layoffs, whether it be just overall expected budget increase, everything looks like it is already bottomed and there is some optimism going into 2021. Of course, the January survey that we launched will be able to corroborate that hopefully, and we'll have much more granularity into those findings at that time. >> Great. Okay, now let's get into the demographics that you referenced for. This next slide shows those. The record number of respondents Erik, congratulations on that. And so take us through the makeup of the survey respondents guys, if you bring up this next slide. >> Yeah. So for the October 20, what we're really doing here is we're asking the it decision makers to update the survey responses they gave us in July. We're basically saying, okay, you thought you were going to spend this in the back half, what did you actually do? And in this particular survey we had 1,438 qualified IT decision makers get involved. That's 60% of the fortune 100 is represented, almost a quarter of the global 1000, and we had about 35% of the fortune 500. The industry breakdown is all across the board, whether it's financials/insurance, IT/Telco, we have industrials/manufacturing, we have energy/utilities, we have government. So it's really a great cross section. Now, geographically, that tends to be about 80% North America. We are heavily concentrated in that area, but we also have a 12% EMEA, 5% APAC and remainder is Latin AmErika. If there were any visibility concerns at all would probably be in China. It's just not that easy to get qualified IT decision makers from China to respond to us. But that's an area we are working on going forward, but overall a huge survey response, certainly meaningful end, and we're very happy with the data that we collected this time. >> Okay, thank you for that. Now, I want to go into the next graphic here, and I want to look at how net score has changed over time. And I want to remind people that, so this slide basically goes back to 2016, and shows some ebbs and flows and then some real strength coming in, 'cause you see 17 and 18, and you may forget going into Q4'19 and into 2020, the ETR data was telling us, hey, things are going to slow down a little bit. It's hard to remember that. And so, and the thinking back then was okay, last couple of years, people have spent a lot on digital transformation, and would a lot of experimentation, they were hanging on to their legacy stuff, and with all that technical debt and they were experimenting with a lot of the new technologies. And what we saw coming into Q4 2019 was people beginning to unplug some of that and making bets basically, unplugging some of the legacy stuff. Oh, and by the way, maybe saying hey, the new stuff that we tried didn't work, we're going to do less experimentation. So we saw a somewhat depressed next score, and you can see that in here coming into 2020, and then of course COVID hit and you can see the bottom fell out. But wow what a drop, I mean, that says it all, a lot different than what we're seeing in the stock market. >> Yeah, first of all, just a great recap on what we caught last year. Really well done. So at that time there was concurrent spending. There was a lot of proof of concepts being done. People weren't exactly sure how to transition off, how fast they were going to get into the cloud, how fast they could make that digital transformation. And they were kicking the tires on everything, and there was a ton of spend. It was the golden era of IT spending at the time. But we did catch that some of that was coming down. So what we will see now is obviously that spending was going to cool off either way, but now with the global pandemic impact hitting what we've caught, of course, is the biggest survey over survey decline. 3.2% was matched at one other point in our survey's history, but that was at very elevated spendings, so that drop was not as meaningful. When we're seeing from a more baseline that drop right now is extremely seasonal, and extremely meaningful, my apologies. Now, I do want to make a quick caveat that usually the October survey catches some seasonality, because a lot of people have expected spend in the back half that doesn't always materialize. But make no mistake, this is way beyond our normal seasonality. This trough is a real metric. >> Yeah, and when I talk to buyers and I talk to even salespeople, for if you want the truth, you'll talk to salespeople, if you can get the truth out of them, which you usually can. Sales and engineering, that's really if we want to know what's happening in companies, but they will tell you that their visibility, same with the buyers, they're saying, look, I think I'm going to spend and I think I'm going to get approval on it, but the normal buying signals, you kind of have to take with a grain of salt because it's, the buyers don't know the sellers don't really know. I mean, they think they've got reasonable visibility but things change so fast as we know. So you have to be really, really careful. All right, let's drill in to some of the sectors, and that's really the next two slides, guys, if you bring up the first of the next two. So this shows the change from July to October. So the last survey to this survey, 2020, and the green bars of July, yellow bars are October. And you can see right away, jumps out at you, container orchestration and ML and AI, and we've got some other data on this jump right off the charts. They're still elevated levels, so that's a real positive. You can see AI actually, maybe waning a bit, and I think that's probably, Erik, is a lot of it is just, you don't even see it, it's just embedded. But take us through this first chart and then we'll dig into some of these sectors. What are you seeing? >> Yeah, certainly. So from a sector breakdown point of view, that lesson, none of them were spared, let's be honest, right? There's a slow down in spending. But containers and containerization were by far the most stable. So clearly this is a priority. People are recognizing that they need to go that route. Nobody wants to be tied to any particular cloud provider. So container and containers are moving the best, they are looking about as stable as they can be. When we drill down a little bit further in there, we're seeing Kubernetes of course, Microsoft and AWS really supporting in that sector. Now, when you talk about the ones that had the biggest survey over survey declines, we are looking at ML/AI, but like you said, still elevated spend. So even though there was a big survey over survey decline, the overall spending intentions are healthy. Nobody is getting away from it. Also to corroborate that in the COVID impact study, we asked people, given the current situation where their priorities are, and unfortunately in that area ML/AI and the RPA we're actually not positioned as well. So it actually corroborates the COVID impact survey, corroborates what we're seeing here in our larger intentions. Now, when you look at ML/AI, Microsoft is still very well suited in that area. Virtualization was another big area that dropped, which was interesting because I think the immediate COVID impact and the work from home, we saw a little spike there. I think we definitely saw companies like Citrix, right? F5 and Nutanix and AWS workspaces. They all had a really good impact, positive, when we first hit, but virtualization is dropping quite a bit there. And again, no surprise, Microsoft is well positioned as well. And then lastly, enterprise content management also had a big, big drop-off, and there you're looking at Adobe Box, Open Text, those are the type of companies that seem to be having the biggest survey over survey decline and ECM. >> Yeah. And I just want to make a comment on this first of the two slides. Is you see security, it's okay, there's a little bit of decline, but there's the story of the haves and the have nots. If you're an end point security, you're in cloud security, you're in identity access management, there's some real tailwinds for you right now. You're seeing that with Octa, CrowdStrike and Zscaler, SailPoint, you know, had a really good quarter. So that's the story of kind of the, a mixed bag. If you go to the next slide, guys, what jumps out here on the second sector breakdown, and Erik you alluded to this as RPA, very elevated, although down, somewhat still, again, very elevated and cloud computing. I mean, that's all everybody wants to talk about. This is a large market that continues to grow very, very fast. >> Yeah. It's a A2 cloud, right? I mean, even the cloud, we're kind of shocked and we saw that too. But, you know, again, it's still a healthy survey at 4Cloud. Spending is still there, but what we are seeing is a pretty big survey over-serving decline that is probably, if you had to translate that, it's going to show slower growth. Still double digit growth, but slower than we expected. And interestingly in the cloud, again, Microsoft is very steady, GCP steady. We saw AWS soften a little bit, and that's something that I think we need to keep an eye on there, we are seeing some softening trends. IBM and Oracle, unfortunately, no matter how hard they push, it doesn't really seem to be making a dent, at least with our it decision makers that respond to the survey. But one thing that was interesting was VMware on AWS actually looked much, much better than VMware alone. So on the cloud side, those are pretty interesting takeaways. >> Yeah, we talked about that a couple of episodes back as the, well, couple of things to pick up on your comments. You mentioned IBM and Oracle, they're just so large, they're growing businesses are not growing fast enough and they're not large enough to offset the decline and their declining businesses. Yet they're huge, they have, they throw off a lot of cash and so maybe their stock's not going through the roof, but they're pretty stable companies from that regard. I wonder, maybe AWS is starting to hit some of those, the law of large numbers. I mean, it's still growing very, very rapidly for a 45 plus billion dollar organization, still growing well into the double digits, so it just gets harder. And then, but the other thing I wanted to pick up on is you mentioned VMware cloud on AWS, we're seeing those hybrid solutions really start to pick up the multi-cloud solutions, which I was a real skeptic a couple of years ago 'cause it wasn't really real, now becoming real. And I think when you talk to, you know this well from your Ven discussions, people are looking at options for cloud. They want multiple clouds, the right horse for the right course, they want to reduce their risk, they want to ensure exit strategies and some clouds are just better at some things than others. >> Yeah, completely agree. And as you know, I do interview a lot of these IT decision makers that we survey to get a little more granularity and to dig into the details, and you and I just, great example. We did a session on Data Warehousing as a Service, we're at Snowflake. And the main reason that people love them is 'cause they have cloud portability. They can move across multiple clouds. Nobody wants to be tied to one cloud provider, they need to be agnostic. And if you look at, you know, something like Microsoft, right? Their Software Suite is fantastic. So most people are going to be aligned for them. They provide great active directory, the enterprise applications are absolutely incredible. But if you're looking to do straight ML/AI or straight data warehousing, maybe AWS Redshift, maybe Google Big Query might be a better fit for you. There's no reason to be tied into one. So what we're seeing more and more is those vendors that offer cloud portability or hybrid availability to do some on-prem for security, some cloud, they're really taking a step up in our recent surveys. Another comment you made Dave, if I can just backtrack to it is, you kind of mentioned how some of the vendors are taking more and more share. We are continuing to see this theme of a widening bifurcation, where although the overall spend that pie is shrinking, the leading vendors are taking much bigger slices from that pie. And that is continuing across the entire year. >> Yeah, definitely a time of disruption. So thank you for bringing that up. Okay, the next graphic I want to show you is actually a motion graphic, and what we're showing here is one of our favorite views. On the vertical axis you've got net score, remember, net score, essentially ETR, every quarter like clockwork asks customers are you spending more you're spending less, it's more granular than that, but essentially they subtract the red from the green and that leaves you with net score. So the higher the net score the better on the vertical axis, on the on the horizontal is axis is market share, its presence, its pervasiveness in the dataset. So you want to be up into the right, of course, like all these charts and XY's. And what we're showing here is, we go back to October, 2018. Remember this is the October survey and you can see the movement and what's happening. And a couple of points here really is one is container orchestration and container platforms, cloud, RPA, ML, they all stand out. And now we, you can see the the context of their "market share" as well, and you see that bunching, you see some of the Legacy stuff, the more mature markets like storage and PC tablets and laptops. They don't have a huge next or outsourcing, not a big net score, but they're there and they're kind of bunched up, down in the middle. But you can also see how they've slowly got depressed over time, even the elevated ones. Nobody in the recent survey is over a 60% net net score. I think you guys said that the overall net score was the lowest in history. So this is just a good way to visualize the various sectors and how spending, momentum and share is shifting. >> Yeah, that's a very good point, and you are right. The overall survey net score is actually 25.3% and it is the lowest ever we've captured. So that actually is translating into what we expect to be single digit declines in overall growth in IT budgets, which again is in line with what we've been saying. We caught early on about negative 5 1/2, that is improved now it's in this quarter to about negative 3 1/2, but if you look at the mid point here, we're very clearly in mid single digit declines, and the entire area is being impacted. Now, there are certainly some areas that are more important than others, there's no doubt about it. But yeah, outsourcing is one you mentioned, absolutely getting decimated. Nobody really has the money right now to be doing IT outsourcing, that's just not a priority. The priority is remote connectivity, remote security, how do I get identity access and governance to make sure that my employees are doing what they're supposed to be doing, even though they're not on my network anymore. All of those things are continuing. And as you saw on the COVID-19 Impact Survey, they're not going away. You had mentioned on a solo session you did, I think a week ago, where you have cited our data saying that permanent workforce is going to double from where it was in pre-pandemic levels. So that means a lot of the people that slapped a bandaid on their networking to get their employees to work from home, that bandaid solution is not going to work. They need to find one that's permanent now. So the areas of spend, although it is declining, there are very clear delineations of where that spend is going. >> Yeah, I want to just pick up on something you said about the work from home doubling, 'cause I've shared that data with some folks and had some discussions. We're talking about people that work from home, not come in a couple of times a week, this is the work from home component. And so I think the hybrid is going to increase as well, but the hardcore work from home, I think it was mid-teens, 16% or something doubling in the post pandemic was the expectation. And again, I just wanted to sort of clarify that I think your data there is quite good. How about some of the vendors? I think, now that's Snowflakes public, you guys may be doing some forecasts there. Let's start there. >> Sure, yeah. So it's fun to talk about the high level, right? And talk about the sector breakdown and where we're seeing things, but at the end of the day, people just love to talk about the individual vendors. So there's a few things that were interesting, yeah. We were able to finally come out with a real viewpoint on Snowflake now that they're out in public, and we kind of launched with a positive to neutral viewpoint. I don't think there's going to be anything here that shocks you. We're absolutely outstanding expansion rates. All the commentary we get from our CIOs are just incredible, the market share gains are about as high as you're going to see in the survey, they are extremely well positioned to continue executing, and this is not in the data set, but we also know that that management team is fantastic. I would think that they had set themselves up coming out as a public company not to completely disappoint. And everything in our data set shows absolutely no reason why they would disappoint. >> Well, and so you may be wondering folks, like, well, wait a minute, with all that great news, I mean, how could they be positive to neutral. Maybe it maybe neutral, the reason is because they have a 66, roughly $66 billion valuation. And what ETR is doing is they're taking that into consideration as well relative to, so they're looking at the street forecast, the consensus forecast and saying, okay, how does the data line up to that? And so a lot of people are asking the question, can Snowflake live up to its valuation. I don't think there's any lack of total available market here. I mean, it's very, very large, the data market, it's enormous. And as, just a plug for an event that we're doing on November 17th, it starts, we're doing a global event, and we're going to be looking at this issue very closely, interviewing customers and partners and executives and, you know, you can judge for yourself if you think the vision, they're putting out this vision of a data cloud. You see this, if this vision, you think is going to have a big enough term that they can grow into, and as Erik said, great management team, will they be able to execute? Decide for yourself, but very exciting IPO obviously that we've tracked quite closely. Elastic is another one that you guys have followed quite closely. I know you've got some data there that you want to share as well. >> Yeah, I certainly do. The APM spaces is really interesting. One last quick point on Snowflake. We don't have regression forecasts on them, because they haven't been out public long enough for us to be able to do that sort of back-testing. So without that data science behind us, we will never really go with a full positive. So to your point that saying positive to neutral is not negative or neutral stance whatsoever, it's just without that regression support behind our data, that's what we just tend to do. Because at the end of the day, we're a data science company, so.. >> Yeah. You need some some history there to really make those calls. But yeah, let's talk about Elastic. >> Yeah, sure, you got it. So recently I hosted a panel on the APM and monitoring space. It was incredibly enlightening. It's a very crowded space that our CIOs told us is right for disruption. And it ended up being a little bit of an avalanche in our data, because it wasn't just Elastic, but it was also Splunk and Dynatrace that we ended up putting ratings on. Now, Elastic as we know is an open source model, a freemium to pay type of model. And we normally try to stay away from open source models, 'cause it's kind of hard to predict how that converts to revenue, but the data was so strong that again, we came out with a positive to neutral rating on Elastic. It was based on just elevated spend levels across, there was almost no negativity, we weren't seeing any decrease or replacement indications, really solid positioning in the fortune 500 accounts, which I was a bit surprised about. And the other thing here is that Elastic tends to be really expanding in the information security. This is no longer just about monitoring and logging, they are becoming a very relevant infosec play and they are breathing down the necks of Splunk. They can do the same thing and they can do it much cheaper. The caveat being, you need to have the IT and the human skillset to run Elastic. So it really comes down to, are you sophisticated enough with the human capital management to run it? But everything we saw here just incredibly improved competitive positioning, they actually had the number one net score in all of information security in any vendor that had over 50 citations. It was just too hard to ignore, we had to come out with a positive neutral. >> That's super interesting Erik, and of course, yeah, we covered that space recently. Everybody wants a piece of Splunk and have for a number of years, but, you know, you see in Datadog come after it, then you see some startups getting into the space. Jeremy Burton launched his company, Observe, Honeycomb is in that, they kind of coined the term observability. Kakao Search is another one. Ed Wall's joined that company, and so you see a lot of folks really going after that space, why not? I mean, it's such a successful company. The pickup of SignalFX filling some holes, we talked about that on the Ven, and it's a very interesting space, and one I think has some somewhat depressed levels from a net score standpoint but as some of your Ven observers said, this market is here to stay and it becoming much more important as part of digital transformation, as part of a dashboard of digital transformation. >> Yeah. Coining that term observability really just hit it on the nail on the head. When we just talked about monitoring an application, that's not what it's about anymore, right? You need to have observability in multi hybrid cloud environments, whether it's your infrastructure or people actually writing code for your application. And so that single pane of glass, end-to-end is the holy grail of monitoring, and that's what these guys are pushing for. The New Relics, the Datadog's, the Elastics, they're getting there more quickly than Splunk and Dynatrace or AppDynamics from Cisco are. That's what the people are telling us, the ones I speak to, the CIOs that use it in the field. They're getting there more quickly and they're doing it more cheaply. Now, this is not to say Splunk is not a great company, we know it is. And also Splunk has more API integration into any ecosystem you want. They're not getting pulled or ripped out anytime soon, we're not saying that. But when we look at our data, we had no choice but to come out with a neutral to negative. They are deteriorating and their spending intentions, their customer growth is completely stalling, we're not seeing any more increased perversion in our dataset or among customers. There just wasn't really anything we could really do. Looking at the data set and that's what we do, we had no choice. There's a lot of skepticism heading into the back half of this year and next year, there's so much competition coming after them, and some of these people are just giving it away for free. It's pretty hard to compete with free. >> Yeah, free is very powerful. All right, speaking of skepticism, Rackspace had their IPO, what do you see in there? >> Oh man, I'm not really sure how to start there. But listen, I don't want to beat a company while it's down, but their net scores are actually negative. I think at the negative 20% range, if I could possibly recall that. But listen, Rackspace, when they were private, let's give them some credit, right? They decided to go out and buy a bunch of different managed service providers, they tried to align themselves with AWS, with Oracle. So they've got this whole bundle thing right now that isn't just straight cloud computing anymore. We'll see if that plays out. But clearly we saw that the IPO was not a very special IPO. In this environment the valuations in the technology stocks being very elevated, having a negative IPO was very telling. But sticking straight to the data, basically we're seeing negativity across several years, it's the worst position vendor in cloud computing that we even cover. We just had to take a look at it right now, and just be honest and say according to the data, this is a very negative data set, there just isn't much we can do about it. Wish them the best, I hope their MSP revenue starts kicking in, and hopefully it'll change. But for right now the snapshot of our data was quite dire. >> Okay, Erik, Well, thanks so much. So let's update folks, so the ETR is exiting, it's quiet, period, which I love, because that means I can have the data and share with you. So we'll be updating our cloud scenarios, security, automation, our infrastructure, and many other segments as well. Certainly the data piece, we've been tracking snowflake very closely. And of course, Erik, you guys are already gearing up for your January survey. So, you know... >> It never ends Dave. And I've... >> Well, I got a really... I've got a sizzle panel that I'm doing next week as well, where we got four sizzles talking about security threats and priorities for 2021. So as soon as I wrap that, you'll be the first one I get my summary to. >> Oh, those are great. I mean, there's such deep dives with practitioners, and it's just an open discussion. So Erik Bradley, thanks so much for coming back in theCube. >> Have a great weekend Dave. >> Yeah, you too. And thank you for watching everybody this episode of Cube Insights powered by ETR. Go to etr.plus, that's where all the survey action is. I publish every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. All these episodes are available on podcast. Wherever you watch, you can DM me, I'm @DVelllante. I post on LinkedIn, you can comment there or email me @david.vellanteat, @siliconangle.com. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley. Thanks for watching everybody, we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Application performance management AKA APM, you know it's been around since the days of the mainframe. Now, as systems' architectures became more complex, the technology evolved to accommodate client-server, web-tier architectures, mobile and now of course, cloud-based systems. A spate of vendors have emerged to solve the sticky problems associated with ensuring consistent and predictable user experiences. The market has grown, I mean it's decent size, it's about $5 billion globally. It's growing at a consistent 10% CAGR. It's got a variety of established companies and new entrants that are attacking this space. Hi everyone, welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights powered by ETR. My name is Dave Vellante and today, we welcome back ETR's Erik Bradley, who was the chief engagement strategist at Aptiviti which is the holding company of our data partner, ETR. Erik, my friend, great to see you. Thanks so much for coming on and spending some time with us. >> Oh, always enjoy it Dave. Great to see you too and I'm just glad I got some fresh material for ya. >> As always, you have fresh data. Now, Erik just recently hosted an ETR VENN session and on this particular topic, APM. Now VENNs are an open round table, they're exclusively available to ETR's clients and what we do is we sometimes come in theCUBE and we summarize those sessions in our Breaking Analysis. Now Erik, yo let's start with a summary slide here, guys, if you could bring that up, we just want to make a couple of points and... So as I said Erik, I mean this started back, you know in the System/390 days. Now, distributed systems and cloud of course create a lot more complexity, you got data that's really fragmented. You got user data, you got application data, you have infrastructure data and it gets complicated and you've got guys in lab coats having to come in and diagnose these stuff, lot of tribal knowledge. What are you seeing in the space? >> Well yeah, you know to start back, you know it's funny when the panel I hosted, one of the guys even brought up Tivoli, how long ago that was right? Then of course you get, you know you have the solar winds and you had people like that trying to just kind of monitor your network. You know what we've heard a lot about now is infrastructure has really become code-based. So when that happens, you really start wondering to yourself the lines are blurring between infrastructure and application because at the end of the day, what you're really monitoring is code. So it has gotten incredibly complex, you have OnPrem, you have hybrid, you have multi-cloud approach so it has gotten extremely complex and there's also now a third wave of next-gen vendors getting involved in the mix as well. As you're aware, New Relic and Datadog, obviously, Splunk has been in logging and monitoring for a long time. You also had some of the traditional players throw their hat in the ring through acquisition, that you know AppDynamics gobbled up by Cisco and obviously Splunk trying to continue to reinvent themselves a little bit by SignalFx. So it is a very crowded, complex space, it is a complicated problem but it's also a problem that needs to be solved. You know, we were looking at, you said in your intro about, it's only about a $5 billion market right now but there's been a lot of data out there from industry analysts saying that that's going to grow quite handsomely over the next five years and it could get up to 13, 14, 15 billion. And when I asked my panel about that, I had one gentleman say without a doubt, they see the next 10 years that spending in this space will continue. And when you pry and ask why, they simply state that digital transformation is not going to stop, it's marching forward, whether anyone likes it or not and as it does, monitoring is going to be critical, it's only going to increase and increase and increase. So right now, to your point, it's a small market but it's a growing market and there's a lot of entrance in there and their whole goal is to reduce this complexity that you're talking about. >> Now, one of the things we heard from the panel, guys if you bring up that same slide again, you know the third point on that slide was what's closely tied to digital transformation. You heard a number of individuals say, "Look, your digital business is critical, it's all about monitoring your applications and your data and your infrastructure. And we heard a lot that they wanted a, a single pane of glass and you made a number of points about the market. What are your thoughts on both the digital transformation, maybe the COVID acceleration of that mandate and that notion of a single pane of glass, is that aspirational or is it, in your view, something that is actually technically feasible? >> Not only is it technically feasible, it has to happen. It's going to be demanded by the large enterprise, they can't continue to monitor hundreds and hundreds of applications. They need something that not only can give them observability through their entire stack, but they need to be able to view it in one way, there's enough fatigue in monitoring and logging. And actually it goes even further than one pane of glass, they're demanding that these systems can now actually employ machine learning algorithms to be proactive. It's not enough to just say, "Okay, I observed this," you have to let me know that this may happen in the future and what to do about it. So not only is it feasible, it's something that is being demanded by the end-user market and the players that survive are the ones that already have that in their roadmap. >> Now, as we always like to do in these sessions, we're going to bring up some ETR data and we like to position the companies. So what we do is, we're going to bring up some of the pure players, pure-play companies and you can see them on this slide. But Erik, and when we talk about companies in this space, they are well over a dozen. It's just again for reference, you know it's Cisco with AppD, you mentioned that before Dynatrace is one of the leaders, New Relic has been around for awhile and is doing well, Splunk, Datadog. Now of course, and we're not showing them here, AWS, Microsoft and Google cause they just sort of, they pollute the chart. But so I want to start with the guys that are on this view and maybe talk about a few. Elastic came up a lot, certainly AppD came up a little, Dynatrace was obviously mentioned, especially in large organizations. Lot of conversations about New Relic. So let's go through them. Where do you want to start here? >> Yeah there's a lot to go through and we did spend the majority of the panel talking about the individual players, the differences between them and also what we thought their longer term prospects were but yeah, we'll go through each one. I think maybe to start with, let's go back in time a little bit, right? Cisco is a wonderful acquirer, they do a great job at M&A. A lot of companies will acquire something and let it die on the vine. Cisco has proven recently that they are reinventing themselves as a full platform play, whether that be through, you know, kind of, their networking reach or whether it be through the security. And AppDynamics is one of those that actually kind of gives you a little bit of both with being able to monitor. It is a great play for people that are already involved with Cisco. Now, I don't think you're going to see too many people that are non-Cisco customers run out and buy it. There you're going to see some of them, maybe the pure plays or one of my guests called the third wave of vendors. And that third wave is really about a Datadog and a New Relic. Let's talk about Datadog first. >> Yeah let's bring that back up guys, if you would. Now let me just, sorry to interrupt you Erik (indistinct) The vertical axis here is net score, that's the ETR's primary metric, and that's an indication of spending velocity, the higher, the better. And on the horizontal axis is market share. Now we're showing the July data, the October data is in the field, you know once ETR releases that to its clients, then we'll share that with you. But the first thing that jumps out at me is other than Elastic Erik, I mean, I'm not blown away by the spending momentum in this space but let's talk about that and then some of your thoughts on the specific vendors. >> Yeah, you know I'll go back because you asked a little bit about the digital transformation, I don't think I answered it fully. So to your comment about maybe not being impressed with the spend, I think this is one where the spend is going to come, kind of as a laggard because you're not going to rush out and go buy the software to monitor until you've built out the, what needs to be monitored. So as we're seeing this increase in the digital transformation, and I think you and I had a conversation in the past, but when COVID first hit and I did a series of panels, we had one person say that this virus is going to increase digital transformation by five to 10 years. Now that was an amazing statement. Basically, if you were on the fence, if you didn't, if you weren't already heading down to digital transformation, you needed to play catch up quickly. So now that you are doing that right, now that you're moving from OnPrem to a multicloud or a hybrid cloud environment, you have to get observability, you have to get monitoring into it. So now these players start to play catch up and this is where you're going to see the proof of concepts and you're going to see people trying to decide which direction they're going to take their company. Now back to the actual vendors. I believe that there is some differentiation, right? So we'll just take, for instance, Splunk. Splunk is obviously probably the biggest boy on the block when it comes to just straight up logging and monitoring. They've leveraged that big boy position to really, you know, add some costs, kind of intimidate their customers they've been compared in the past of the type of things that Oracle used to do from their cost perspective. And that's opened up some new competition, Datadog is one of those. According to my panel, Datadog is viewed more for logging and monitoring than it is truly full end-to-end observability throughout your entire network and application system. So that is one of the areas that's there. Now, to stay on those two names for a quick second, Splunk obviously has some holes in what they're trying to offer, they went out and tried to buy SignalFx to fill one of those holes. Now according to my panel again, did a great job filling that hole, problem is if you have a boat with three holes, you can't put your fingers everywhere. So they think, hey listen, Splunk scrape, they're going to keep the company they have and I know that we can talk a little bit more about valuations and the equity side later, but I think it's very clear that their sales and revenue are trending flat to down, whereas some of these other names still have great acceleration in their sales. So Splunk and Datadog both are really facing pressure from Elastic or generally just open-source. >> I was struck by the panel and how much emphasis they, how much complaining they did about Splunk pricing. Generally, I feel like hey, if your price is too high is the biggest objection, that's actually not a bad thing for a company but the way they kept hitting on it and said, "Hey, we're actively looking for alternatives" and Datadog was one of those and given the momentum that Datadog has, I don't think that that's necessarily a positive. But you know Splunk has a lot of loyal customers but you know to your point if you go back to the slide, Elastic came up very, very strong and they are head and shoulders from a spending momentum above the rest of the crowd here. >> Right. And you know, so you're right. If the only problem with a vendor or a technology is cost, usually you live with it because that means it's giving you what you need. So okay, it's expensive but it's also the best in breed and that's where Splunk has been for a very long time. And I think they're resting on their laurels knowing that. Enter Elastic and you say to these guys, the panel, I asked them, well okay, you can make Elastic work but is it truly a viable alternative from a technology standpoint? And the answer to that was not only is it viable, it's half the price. So if you can bring something in that can do the job the same and it's half the cost, it's really difficult not to at least try. And I had one of the other gentlemen who was a Datadog customer said, "Listen, we love Datadog, we were a huge customer and then I started getting enormous bills and I just switched over to open-source, I switched to Elastic, I switched to Kibana, I switched to Kafka and I can do this search myself. Now the difference is not every enterprise has the human skillset to do so and I'm not saying Splunk's going to turn around to disappear tomorrow, not even close. Because there is a difference in spending that money with the vendor or spending that money developing the human skillset to use open-source. But the bigger backdrop here is there are more alternatives than there used to be, there's more competition and the space is getting very crowded. >> Yeah, comment on open-source. I mean open-source is free like a puppy. But the thing about that, and we had one of the panelists was a very senior consultant, exclusively work with very large companies, he told a story about one of the companies years ago, he came in to solve a problem. The problem was they had 70% availability and then they had no visibility on their infrastructure and there's really no great, no good monitor, they get them up to whatever, five nines or two, three nines or wherever they got them to, but dramatic improvement. And so, but he said, "Look it, I work with companies with billions of dollars, $3 billion IT budgets so they don't rely on open-source for this stuff, they're happy to spend." But there's a huge market, particularly in the mid size where we heard that New Relic plays in a big way, it might be more receptive to open-source. >> Couple of great points there Dave, honestly. I'm going to jump over to the use case that was given by that person who was in a healthcare role. And essentially the part I didn't write into my summary was that his CEO was two days away from shutting down the entire business because he was so frustrated that he had no observability and Dynatrace was the one that was able to step in and fix that. And this gentleman did say that the majority of the companies that he does work with which are all in the Fortune 100, Dynatrace has a stranglehold in that spot. So that's really interesting to note. Now on the flip side, when pushed a little bit more later in the panel, he said, "Dynatrace is sort of resting on its laurels from a product roadmap standpoint and that's going to open up the possibility of a New Relic getting in," a transition to New Relic as you mentioned on their small to medium sized business. They recently launched a new pricing strategy which is basically a free version to get you involved to kind of get their hooks into you and see if you can work it out. And basically what they're trying to do there I think is, you know, make up for their lack of marketing. As you saw the panel that we spoke about said, "New Relic's technology is fantastic." They have the ability to provide a single pane of glass which is the Holy Grail in this space and they have the ability to provide machine learning and proactive type of ability which again are the two things that all of the end-users are asking for. The problem is that most people might not be aware of it because New Relic doesn't have as flashy a marketing department, they don't have the dollars as much as the others to go out there and compete with the Splunk and Dynatrace and Cisco. But from a roadmap perspective, it was almost unanimous that our panel agreed, New Relic is by far, one of the leaders from a functionality standpoint. >> Yeah, if you guys bring that slide up one more time, the X Y. I mean, I look at where New Relic is and I'm like wow, I'm surprised. I mean this company, I mean they were the hot company for awhile and I think still have the capability. You're talking about the technology. NRDB, New Relic database is like, it kicks ass. In fact, you know Erik, somebody brought up in the panel that they thought that snowflake could compete in this market because essentially Snowflake's positioning is this data cloud. But you know, here's New Relic, they have a purpose-built database specifically for monitoring an APM so you would think that with that technology, they could really make some moves. And then I just want to bring in two other companies to the mix here. Honeycomb who I think even their founder and former CEO now CTO, she coined the term I believe, observability. And there's another company that is run by Jeremy Burton, company's called Observe, okay (indistinct) and it's funded by the Silicon Valley Mafia. So that's going to be an interesting one to watch, they're coming out, well they're out of stealth but they're doing a launch on October 7th. So I think those are two companies that could disrupt this space and I would expect to see, as you said, it's a latent momentum in net score from a dataset standpoint because people are trying to plug the holes cause of COVID, you know security, work from home, that pivot and now it's really on to digital transformation and that's where APM really comes in. >> It really does and again, it comes back to that comment someone made a long time ago that everything's becoming code as software eats the world and everything becomes code, you need the ability to kind of monitor that code, enter Honeycomb. And as you know, we have two different studies at ETR, one of them is for emerging technology. Honeycomb is in our emerging technology study that's more of a private series B to series E round stage whereas our main study is for companies that are pre IPO or already public. But Honeycomb is a little bit different in my opinion, that they're focused very much so on the developers or the software engineers. They're a very microservices oriented type of product whereas some of the other ones may have started as an infrastructure monitoring and then kind of work their way backward into application. But Honeycomb certainly needs to be observed and it's funny when you talk about that, the one thing I think is, "Oh great, more players." The crowded space gets even more crowded. And I think well you know, kind of foreshadowing something you and I will be speaking about in a little bit but there's a lot of players in this space and there's a lot of other possible interest in there. You mentioned Snowflake. It actually wasn't brought up from our panelists, it was a question that came from one of my clients that said, "Hey, I'm curious, can snowflake play in this space?" And the panel thought about it for a second and said, "There's absolutely no reason why they can't, they most certainly can." And we all know the cash they have so I mean the easiest way to play in that would maybe be to buy some of the technology, integrate it in and yeah, they have that portability. And if I can real quickly, they've just, one of the things that came out that was so important about this, we haven't spoken about the vendors is, is the public cloud. The public cloud offers this. They offer monitoring, they'll give it to you for free. If I'm going to run Kubernetes at Google, I'm going to get the monitoring for free which is super nice, right? But if I have an enterprise that has multicloud or hybrid cloud, and I'm working outside of that public cloud silo, it doesn't work. This is the exact conversation you and I had about Snowflake. AWS Redshift's fantastic but it doesn't work outside of AWS. So if every one of our enterprises continues on the digital transformation, they need portability. They have to be able to go across any architecture structure and that's why these independent providers are really starting to gain steam when you would think they could never compete with the public cloud. >> Yeah man, that's a great point. And we've talked about this in the context of Snowflake that who are you going to trust with your multi-cloud strategy? Are you going to trust AWS? Are you going to trust Google? Yeah, okay, they got Anthos but we kind of know why they're taking that posture. Microsoft, look, I'm probably going to partner with somebody who can, who's maybe I have a relationship with them with my OnPrem and that is really sort of agnostic to the various clouds so I'm glad you brought that up. And you know the point you're making about Honeycomb is a good one and I'll add that, again, it gets more complex with microservices and containers, that's spinning them up, spinning them down. Sometimes these, first of all, these microservices, sometimes aren't that micro and second of all, you're sometimes talking about hundreds of thousands of containers so it's a really increasingly complex environment. All right. What I want to do is-- >> You didn't even touch on serverless, we'll do that some other day. >> Oh, yeah, I mean absolutely. A hundred percent, right. So, now let's take a look at some of the valuations, guys if you bring that up for me. So I put this little chart together and it's always instructive. Now I like to, simple guy Erik so I like to... So you see, the company, I take a trailing 12-month revenue and then the market cap as of 9/25. And then just a simple revenue multiple, just to get a sense, it's not a hardcore valuation model but it's interesting and there usually is a correlation to the growth rate, I just pulled that off the latest quarterly growth rate. I mean, look at Datadog. I mean that's like Snowflake pre IPO valuations. I mean you're really, right around there with smaller revenue, smaller growth rate, Snowflakes up in the whatever 120% range but well eye-popping. You know the same valuation as Splunk, I mean that's just amazing. What do you make of this data? >> Well, you know I was an equity analyst for almost 15 years on the Wall Street side. So the, my first caveat is a trailing revenue to the multiple is not always the same because people are looking at what the forward expected revenue will be but I actually do see the correlation here. And when you brought this up, my eyes popped open. I do not understand why Datadog has a 27 billion market cap on a trailing 350 million in revenue. I just don't know if their forward looking growth really warrants that and at the same time, then you look at a Splunk, right? I mean they have two and a half billion in revenue but their growth rate's down and truthfully, when I see a -5% growth rate, I don't know why you weren't at 12% sales either. I would argue that there's quite a few names on here that could be in for a reckoning, ETR actually as far back as a year ago caught this in our data and said, "Hey, there's some inflection points here and I think investors need to pay attention to them." And since we came out with the July report, a lot of these names we're talking about, despite insane valuations in the equity markets are flat to down. And, you know I do think that, hey if they stay stagnant and their technology is right but it's a crowded space, I think we're really leading to the point where as one of my panelists said, this industry is ripe for consolidation. These players are not all going to be here in 12 months, it's that simple. >> Yeah and by the way, thank you for mentioning that as a former equity analyst, you were right (indistinct) 12 months, it's kind of the rear-view mirror. But I'll tell you, two reasons why I do that. One is, I put the growth rate in there so you can pick your own growth rate and your own forward revenue. The other is it's really easy for me to get TTM off a Yahoo as opposed to >> Right exactly. >> And so truth be told. But, guys bring that back up one more time cause I want to make a point about New Relic. I mean I think they are potentially right for an M&A because they got great technology. Now remember Elliot Management is in there and when Elliot's is in there, stuff's going to happen. They're going to start cleaning house, they're going to really create changes, they don't just get in in a big way and sit back and watch, they are extremely active. And the New Relic, leader in this space, great technology, great heritage. So either they got to clean up and get that valuation back up maybe as you pointed out, little bit better marketing posture, et cetera or they get taken out. >> Yeah and let's think about the two things that coincide, right? You have one of the world's best activist funds get involved in Elliot Management. And as you said, they don't get involved to just sort of watch or observe as we're talking about here today, they are very active in trying to get some sort of a, you know, corporate action done. And at the same time, all of a sudden New Relic comes out with a new pricing model. They're trying to create a moat around the small to medium business, right? They're trying to grow their footprint. Now the great thing about getting involved in small to medium businesses, it starts off for free but you grow with them. So I don't think those two are a coincidence, let me just put it that way. I think that they're coming in, they're trying to entrench themselves in a new market and set themselves up for future growth and I truly believe that based on the product roadmap and the feedback we were getting from the end-users in my panel, New Relic has the ability to look across all architecture, it has the ability to provide a single pane of glass and it has the ability to incorporate machine learning for proactive response. Their roadmap is fantastic, they have an active manager inside as an investor, I don't think they're going to be around for much, much longer. And obviously that you look around and you wonder who the acquirers will be and it might be one of the major cloud players. >> Yeah that would be interesting. I mean it gives them a play in a multicloud world and either they're going to just use that for their own advantage or they will actually see that as an opportunity, we'll be itching to watch. Alright, anything we didn't cover that you want to touch on or give us your final thoughts, please Erik. >> You know I would also just sort of mention a little bit about Splunk. This is a company that has a tremendous amount of revenue, a tremendous installed customer base but many, many times we've seen it before and Oracle is the greatest example. They kind of forget about their customers and they don't treat them properly. And I can't tell you how many people I have mentioned to me said, "Hey when this all went down in the viral pandemic and I went to Splunk and I asked for a little bit of pricing flexibility, I asked for this, I asked for that and they just wouldn't give it to me." And I wrote an article once called (indistinct) never forget similar to an elephant. And when they come out the other side, they're going to find a way to replace them. And today I also wrote an article that it was our 200th interview and I entitled it, The Splunk Funk. And basically it's about all the alternatives that are now out there, not just open source, but other vendors, even the vulnerability management players like a Rapid7, like a Tenable are getting into this space now. Fortinet, which one guy called "Fortaeverything" is a company that's really expanding. So I would just really kind of caution some of those vendors out there that don't rest on your laurels, don't take your customers for granted because sooner or later, they're going to be in a position to bite the back. >> Well I'll say this about Splunk, I've been following the company since the early part of last decade and I've done a lot of Cube interviews at their shows. They do have a passionate, passionate customer base, they got the experts that run around with that crazy hat and I've seen Splunk killers emerge for the last decade and so... But I think your point is right. I mean they've, the SignalFx acquisition was something that, it was a hole to fill and it gets them into a subscription-based model, they're going through that transition now. But I think they have some real gravity with their customer base. So, all right, let me summarize. For years, the application monitoring and management, it's really relied on alerts, logs, traces and even what I call tribal knowledge. In that world of pre-distributed systems, that was fine, like I said a trace can tell you what was going on. But things have begotten much more complicated architecturally with cloud and mobile and they're really changing fast now. Erik mentioned serverless, we talked about containers. So, today it's much harder to understand the customer experience because it's difficult to get a full picture of the data. And what I mean by that is that the user data, the application data, the infrastructure data, they're all fragmented and the Holy Grail solution really takes all this disparate data, it ingests it, it transforms it. Connects the dots if you will, across clouds, Onprem and then it shapes it, brings in machine intelligence, really creating an organic systems view that can proactively tell you that there's a problem coming. And finally, nearly absolute Nirvana is doing this in a way that non-technical people are going to be able to understand the true user experience. You know in theory, this is going to allow organizations to remediate in 110th the time with much, much lower costs and that's going to be critical in this world of digital transformation. So thank you Erik, really appreciate you coming on today. >> Always enjoy it Dave, it's always great talking to you and hopefully we'll do it again soon. >> All right, I can't wait. And thank you everybody for watching this episode of theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Remember these episodes, they're all available on podcasts. We publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com so you got to check that out. And don't forget, go to etr.plus for all the survey action. Would appreciate if you kindly comment on my LinkedIn post or tweet me @dvellante or email at david.vellante@siliconangle.com This is Dave Vellante. Thanks so much to Erik Bradley, be well and we'll see you next time. (bouncy music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> In June of this year, Snowflake filed a confidential document suggesting that it would do an IPO. Now of course, everybody knows about it, found out about it and it had a $20 billion valuation. So, many in the community and the investment community and so forth are excited about this IPO. It could be the hottest one of the year, and we're getting a number of questions from investors and practitioners and the entire Wiki bond, ETR and CUBE community. So, welcome everybody. This is Dave Vellante. This is "CUBE Insights" powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're going to unpack five critical questions around Snowflake's IPO or pending IPO. And with me to discuss that is Erik Bradley. He's the Chief Engagement Strategists at ETR and he's also the Managing Director of VENN. Erik, thanks for coming on and great to see you as always. >> Great to see you too. Always enjoy being on the show. Thank you. >> Now for those of you don't know Erik, VENN is a roundtable that he hosts and he brings in CIOs, IT practitioners, CSOs, data experts and they have an open and frank conversation, but it's private to ETR clients. But they know who the individual is, what their role is, what their title is, et cetera and it's a kind of an ask me anything. And I participated in one of them this past week. Outstanding. And we're going to share with you some of that. But let's bring up the agenda slide if we can here. And these are really some of the questions that we're getting from investors and others in the community. There's really five areas that we want to address. The first is what's happening in this enterprise data warehouse marketplace? The second thing is kind of a one area. What about the legacy EDW players like Oracle and Teradata and Netezza? The third question we get a lot is can Snowflake compete with the big cloud players? Amazon, Google, Microsoft. I mean they're right there in the heart, in the thick of things there. And then what about that multi-cloud strategy? Is that viable? How much of a differentiator is that? And then we get a lot of questions on the TAM. Meaning the total available market. How big is that market? Does it justify the valuation for Snowflake? Now, Erik, you've been doing this now. You've run a couple VENNs, you've been following this, you've done some other work that you've done with Eagle Alpha. What's your, just your initial sort of takeaway from all this work that you've been doing. >> Yeah, sure. So my first take on Snowflake was about two and a half years ago. I actually hosted them for one of my VENN interviews and my initial thought was impressed. So impressed. They were talking at the time about their ability to kind of make ease of use of a multi-cloud strategy. At the time although I was impressed, I did not expect the growth and the hyper growth that we have seen now. But, looking at the company in its current iteration, I understand where the hype is coming from. I mean, it's 12 and a half billion private valuation in the last round. The least confidential IPO (laughs) anyone's ever seen (Dave laughs) with a 15 to $20 billion valuation coming out, which is more than Teradata, Margo and Cloudera combined. It's a great question. So obviously the success to this point is warranted, but we need to see what they're going to be able to do next. So I think the agenda you laid out is a great one and I'm looking forward to getting into some of those details. >> So let's start with what's happening in the marketplace and let's pull up a slide that I very much love to use. It's the classic X-Y. On the vertical axis here we show net score. And remember folks, net score is an indicator of spending momentum. ETR every quarter does like a clockwork survey where they're asking people, "Essentially are you spending more or less?" They subtract the less from the more and comes up with a net score. It's more complicated than, but like NPS, it's a very simple and reliable methodology. That's the vertical axis. And the horizontal axis is what's called market share. Market share is the pervasiveness within the data set. So it's calculated by the number of mentions of the vendor divided by the number of mentions within that sector. And what we're showing here is the EDW sector. And we've pulled out a few companies that I want to talk about. So the big three, obviously Microsoft, AWS and Google. And you can see Microsoft has a huge presence far to the right. AWS, very, very strong. A lot of Redshift in there. And then they're pretty high on the vertical axis. And then Google, not as much share, but very solid in that. Close to 60% net score. And then you can see above all of them from a vertical standpoint is Snowflake with a 77.5% net score. You can see them in the upper right there in the green. One of the highest Erik in the entire data set. So, let's start with some sort of initial comments on the big guys and Snowflakes. Your thoughts? >> Sure. Just first of all to comment on the data, what we're showing there is just the data warehousing sector, but Snowflake's actual net score is that high amongst the entire universe that we follow. Their data strength is unprecedented and we have forward-looking spending intention. So this bodes very well for them. Now, what you did say very accurately is there's a difference between their spending intentions on a net revenue level compared to AWS, Microsoft. There no one's saying that this is an apples-to-apples comparison when it comes to actual revenue. So we have to be very cognizant of that. There is domination (laughs) quite frankly from AWS and from Azure. And Snowflake is a necessary component for them not only to help facilitate a multi-cloud, but look what's happening right now in the US Congress, right? We have these tech leaders being grilled on their actual dominance. And one of the main concerns they have is the amount of data that they're collecting. So I think the environment is right to have another player like this. I think Snowflake really has a lot of longevity and our data is supporting that. And the commentary that we hear from our end users, the people that take the survey are supporting that as well. >> Okay, and then let's stay on this X-Y slide for a moment. I want to just pull out a couple of other comments here, because one of the questions we're asking is Whither, the legacy EDW players. So we've got in here, IBM, Oracle, you can see Teradata and then Hortonworks and MapR. We're going to talk a little bit about Hortonworks 'cause it's now Cloudera. We're going to talk a little bit about Hadoop and some of the data lakes. So you can see there they don't have nearly the net score momentum. Oracle obviously has a huge install base and is investing quite frankly in R&D and do an Exadata and it has its own cloud. So, it's got a lock on it's customers and if it keeps investing and adding value, it's not going away. IBM with Netezza, there's really been some questions around their commitment to that base. And I know that a lot of the folks in the VENNs that we've talked to Erik have said, "Well, we're replacing Netezza." Frank Slootman has been very vocal about going after Teradata. And then we're going to talk a little bit about the Hadoop space. But, can you summarize for us your thoughts in your research and the commentary from your community, what's going on with the legacy guys? Are these guys cooked? Can they hang on? What's your take? >> Sure. We focus on this quite a bit actually. So, I'm going to talk about it from the data perspective first, and then we'll go into some of the commentary and the panel. You even joined one yesterday. You know that it was touched upon. But, first on the data side, what we're noticing and capturing is a widening bifurcation between these cloud native and the legacy on-prem. It is undeniable. There is nothing that you can really refute. The data is concrete and it is getting worse. That gap is getting wider and wider and wider. Now, the one thing I will say is, nobody's going to rip out their legacy applications tomorrow. It takes years and years. So when you look at Teradata, right? Their market cap's only 2 billion, 2.3 billion. How much revenue growth do they need to stay where they are? Not much, right? No one's expecting them to grow 20%, which is what you're seeing on the left side of that screen. So when you look at the legacy versus the cloud native, there is very clear direction of what's happening. The one thing I would note from the data perspective is if you switched from net score or adoptions and you went to flat spending, you suddenly see Oracle and Teradata move over to that left a little bit, because again what I'm trying to say is I don't think they're going to catch up. No, but also don't think they're going away tomorrow. That these have large install bases, they have relationships. Now to kind of get into what you were saying about each particular one, IBM, they shut down Netezza. They shut it down and then they brought it back to life. How does that make you feel if you're the head of data architecture or you're DevOps and you're trying to build an application for a large company? I'm not going back to that. There's absolutely no way. Teradata on the other hand is known to be incredibly stable. They are known to just not fail. If you need to kind of re-architect or you do a migration, they work. Teradata also has a lot of compliance built in. So if you're a financials, if you have a regulated business or industry, there's still some data sets that you're not going to move up to the cloud. Whether it's a PII compliance or financial reasons, some of that stuff is still going to live on-prem. So Teradata is still has a very good niche. And from what we're hearing from our panels, then this is a direct quote if you don't mind me looking off screen for one second. But this is a great one. Basically said, "Teradata is the only one from the legacy camp who is putting up a fight and not giving up." Basically from a CIO perspective, the rest of them aren't an option anymore. But Teradata is still fighting and that's great to hear. They have their own data as a service offering and listen, they're a small market cap compared to these other companies we're talking about. But, to summarize, the data is very clear. There is a widening bifurcation between the two camps. I do not think legacy will catch up. I think all net new workloads are moving to data as a service, moving to cloud native, moving to hosted, but there are still going to be some existing legacy on-prem applications that will be supported with these older databases. And of those, Oracle and Teradata are still viable options. >> I totally agree with you and my colleague David Floyd is actually quite high on Teradata Vantage because he really does believe that a key component, we're going to talk about the TAM in a minute, but a key component of the TAM he believes must include the on-premises workloads. And Frank Slootman has been very clear, "We're not doing on-prem, we're not doing this halfway house." And so that's an opportunity for companies like Teradata, certainly Oracle I would put it in that camp is putting up a fight. Vertica is another one. They're very small, but another one that's sort of battling it out from the old NPP world. But that's great. Let's go into some of the specifics. Let's bring up here some of the specific commentary that we've curated here from the roundtables. I'm going to go through these and then ask you to comment. The first one is just, I mean, people are obviously very excited about Snowflake. It's easy to use, the whole thing zero to Snowflake in 90 minutes, but Snowflake is synonymous with cloud-native data warehousing. There are no equals. We heard that a lot from your VENN panelist. >> We certainly did. There was even more euphoria around Snowflake than I expected when we started hosting these series of data warehousing panels. And this particular gentleman that said that happens to be the global head of data architecture for a fortune 100 financials company. And you mentioned earlier that we did a report alongside Eagle Alpha. And we noticed that among fortune 100 companies that are also using the big three public cloud companies, Snowflake is growing market share faster than anyone else. They are positioned in a way where even if you're aligned with Azure, even if you're aligned with AWS, if you're a large company, they are gaining share right now. So that particular gentleman's comments was very interesting. He also made a comment that said, "Snowflake is the person who championed the idea that data warehousing is not dead yet. Use that old monthly Python line and you're not dead yet." And back in the day where the Hadoop came along and the data lakes turned into a data swamp and everyone said, "We don't need warehousing anymore." Well, that turned out to be a head fake, right? Hadoop was an interesting technology, but it's a complex technology. And it ended up not really working the way people want it. I think Snowflake came in at that point at an opportune time and said, "No, data warehousing isn't dead. We just have to separate the compute from the storage layer and look at what I can do. That increases flexibility, security. It gives you that ability to run across multi-cloud." So honestly the commentary has been nothing but positive. We can get into some of the commentary about people thinking that there's competition catching up to what they do, but there is no doubt that right now Snowflake is the name when it comes to data as a service. >> The other thing we heard a lot was ETL is going to get completely disrupted, you sort of embedded ETL. You heard one panelist say, "Well, it's interesting to see that guys like Informatica are talking about how fast they can run inside a Snowflake." But Snowflake is making that easy. That data prep is sort of part of the package. And so that does not bode well for ETL vendors. >> It does not, right? So ETL is a legacy of on-prem databases and even when Hadoop came along, it still needed that extra layer to kind of work with the data. But this is really, really disrupting them. Now the Snowflake's credit, they partner well. All the ETL players are partnered with Snowflake, they're trying to play nice with them, but the writings on the wall as more and more of this application and workloads move to the cloud, you don't need the ETL layer. Now, obviously that's going to affect their talent and Informatica the most. We had a recent comment that said, this was a CIO who basically said, "The most telling thing about the ETL players right now is every time you speak to them, all they talk about is how they work in a Snowflake architecture." That's their only metric that they talk about right now. And he said, "That's very telling." That he basically used it as it's their existential identity to be part of Snowflake. If they're not, they don't exist anymore. So it was interesting to have sort of a philosophical comment brought up in one of my roundtables. But that's how important playing nice and finding a niche within this new data as a service is for ETL, but to be quite honest, they might be going the same way of, "Okay, let's figure out our niche on these still the on-prem workloads that are still there." I think over time we might see them maybe as an M&A possibility, whether it's Snowflake or one of these new up and comers, kind of bring them in and sort of take some of the technology that's useful and layer it in. But as a large market cap, solo existing niche, I just don't know how long ETL is for this world. >> Now, yeah. I mean, you're right that if it wasn't for the marketing, they're not fighting fashion. But >> No. >> really there're some challenges there. Now, there were some contrarians in the panel and they signaled some potential icebergs ahead. And I guarantee you're going to see this in Snowflake's Red Herring when we actually get it. Like we're going to see all the risks. One of the comments, I'll mention the two and then we can talk about it. "Their engineering advantage will fade over time." Essentially we're saying that people are going to copycat and we've seen that. And the other point is, "Hey, we might see some similar things that happened to Hadoop." The public cloud players giving away these offerings at zero cost. Essentially marginal cost of adding another service is near zero. So the cloud players will use their heft to compete. Your thoughts? >> Yeah, first of all one of the reasons I love doing panels, right? Because we had three gentlemen on this panel that all had nothing but wonderful things to say. But you always get one. And this particular person is a CTO of a well known online public travel agency. We'll put it that way. And he said, "I'm going to be the contrarian here. I have seven different technologies from private companies that do the same thing that I'm evaluating." So that's the pressure from behind, right? The technology, they're going to catch up. Right now Snowflake has the best engineering which interestingly enough they took a lot of that engineering from IBM and Teradata if you actually go back and look at it, which was brought up in our panel as well. He said, "However, the engineering will catch up. They always do." Now from the other side they're getting squeezed because the big cloud players just say, "Hey, we can do this too. I can bundle it with all the other services I'm giving you and I can squeeze your pay. Pretty much give it a waive at the cost." So I do think that there is a very valid concern. When you come out with a $20 billion IPO evaluation, you need to warrant that. And when you see competitive pressures from both sides, from private emerging technologies and from the more dominant public cloud players, you're going to get squeezed there a little bit. And if pricing gets squeezed, it's going to be very, very important for Snowflake to continue to innovate. That comment you brought up about possibly being the next Cloudera was certainly the best sound bite that I got. And I'm going to use it as Clickbait in future articles, because I think everyone who starts looking to buy a Snowflake stock and they see that, they're going to need to take a look. But I would take that with a grain of salt. I don't think that's happening anytime soon, but what that particular CTO was referring to was if you don't innovate, the technology itself will become commoditized. And he believes that this technology will become commoditized. So therefore Snowflake has to continue to innovate. They have to find other layers to bring in. Whether that's through their massive war chest of cash they're about to have and M&A, whether that's them buying analytics company, whether that's them buying an ETL layer, finding a way to provide more value as they move forward is going to be very important for them to justify this valuation going forward. >> And I want to comment on that. The Cloudera, Hortonworks, MapRs, Hadoop, et cetera. I mean, there are dramatic differences obviously. I mean, that whole space was so hard, very difficult to stand up. You needed science project guys and lab coats to do it. It was very services intensive. As well companies like Cloudera had to fund all these open source projects and it really squeezed their R&D. I think Snowflake is much more focused and you mentioned some of the background of their engineers, of course Oracle guys as well. However, you will see Amazon's going to trot out a ton of customers using their RA3 managed storage and their flash. I think it's the DC two piece. They have a ton of action in the marketplace because it's just so easy. It's interesting one of the comments, you asked this yesterday, was with regard to separating compute from storage, which of course it's Snowflakes they basically invented it, it was one of their climbs to fame. The comment was what AWS has done to separate compute from storage for Redshift is largely a bolt on. Which I thought that was an interesting comment. I've had some other comments. My friend George Gilbert said, "Hey, despite claims to the contrary, AWS still hasn't separated storage from compute. What they have is really primitive." We got to dig into that some more, but you're seeing some data points that suggest there's copycatting going on. May not be as functional, but at the same time, Erik, like I was saying good enough is maybe good enough in this space. >> Yeah, and especially with the enterprise, right? You see what Microsoft has done. Their technology is not as good as all the niche players, but it's good enough and I already have a Microsoft license. So, (laughs) you know why am I going to move off of it. But I want to get back to the comment you mentioned too about that particular gentleman who made that comment about RedShift, their separation is really more of a bolt on than a true offering. It's interesting because I know who these people are behind the scenes and he has a very strong relationship with AWS. So it was interesting to me that in the panel yesterday he said he switched from Redshift to Snowflake because of that and some other functionality issues. So there is no doubt from the end users that are buying this. And he's again a fortune 100 financial organization. Not the same one we mentioned. That's a different one. But again, a fortune 100 well known financials organization. He switched from AWS to Snowflake. So there is no doubt that right now they have the technological lead. And when you look at our ETR data platform, we have that adoption reasoning slide that you show. When you look at the number one reason that people are adopting Snowflake is their feature set of technological lead. They have that lead now. They have to maintain it. Now, another thing to bring up on this to think about is when you have large data sets like this, and as we're moving forward, you need to have machine learning capabilities layered into it, right? So they need to make sure that they're playing nicely with that. And now you could go open source with the Apache suite, but Google is doing so well with BigQuery and so well with their machine learning aspects. And although they don't speak enterprise well, they don't sell to the enterprise well, that's changing. I think they're somebody to really keep an eye on because their machine learning capabilities that are layered into the BigQuery are impressive. Now, of course, Microsoft Azure has Databricks. They're layering that in, but this is an area where I think you're going to see maybe what's next. You have to have machine learning capabilities out of the box if you're going to do data as a service. Right now Snowflake doesn't really have that. Some of the other ones do. So I had one of my guest panelist basically say to me, because of that, they ended up going with Google BigQuery because he was able to run a machine learning algorithm within hours of getting set up. Within hours. And he said that that kind of capability out of the box is what people are going to have to use going forward. So that's another thing we should dive into a little bit more. >> Let's get into that right now. Let's bring up the next slide which shows net score. Remember this is spending momentum across the major cloud players and plus Snowflake. So you've got Snowflake on the left, Google, AWS and Microsoft. And it's showing three survey timeframes last October, April 20, which is right in the middle of the pandemic. And then the most recent survey which has just taken place this month in July. And you can see Snowflake very, very high scores. Actually improving from the last October survey. Google, lower net scores, but still very strong. Want to come back to that and pick up on your comments. AWS dipping a little bit. I think what's happening here, we saw this yesterday with AWS's results. 30% growth. Awesome. Slight miss on the revenue side for AWS, but look, I mean massive. And they're so exposed to so many industries. So some of their industries have been pretty hard hit. Microsoft pretty interesting. A little softness there. But one of the things I wanted to pick up on Erik, when you're talking about Google and BigQuery and it's ML out of the box was what we heard from a lot of the VENN participants. There's no question about it that Google technically I would say is one of Snowflake's biggest competitors because it's cloud native. Remember >> Yep. >> AWS did a license one time. License deal with PowerShell and had a sort of refactor the thing to be cloud native. And of course we know what's happening with Microsoft. They basically were on-prem and then they put stuff in the cloud and then all the updates happen in the cloud. And then they pushed to on-prem. But they have that what Frank Slootman calls that halfway house, but BigQuery no question technically is very, very solid. But again, you see Snowflake right now anyway outpacing these guys in terms of momentum. >> Snowflake is out outpacing everyone (laughs) across our entire survey universe. It really is impressive to see. And one of the things that they have going for them is they can connect all three. It's that multi-cloud ability, right? That portability that they bring to you is such an important piece for today's modern CIO as data architects. They don't want vendor lock-in. They are afraid of vendor lock-in. And this ability to make their data portable and to do that with ease and the flexibility that they offer is a huge advantage right now. However, I think you're a hundred percent right. Google has been so focused on the engineering side and never really focusing on the enterprise sales side. That is why they're playing catch up. I think they can catch up. They're bringing in some really important enterprise salespeople with experience. They're starting to learn how to talk to enterprise, how to sell, how to support. And nobody can really doubt their engineering. How many open sources have they given us, right? They invented Kubernetes and the entire container space. No one's really going to compete with them on that side if they learn how to sell it and support it. Yeah, right now they're behind. They're a distant third. Don't get me wrong. From a pure hosted ability, AWS is number one. Microsoft is yours. Sometimes it looks like it's number one, but you have to recognize that a lot of that is because of simply they're hosted 365. It's a SAS app. It's not a true cloud type of infrastructure as a service. But Google is a distant third, but their technology is really, really great. And their ability to catch up is there. And like you said, in the panels we were hearing a lot about their machine learning capability is right out of the box. And that's where this is going. What's the point of having this huge data if you're not going to be supporting it on new application architecture. And all of those applications require machine learning. >> Awesome. So we're. And I totally agree with what you're saying about Google. They just don't have it figured out how to sell the enterprise yet. And a hundred percent AWS has the best cloud. I mean, hands down. But a very, very competitive market as we heard yesterday in front of Congress. Now we're on the point about, can Snowflake compete with the big cloud players? I want to show one more data point. So let's bring up, this is the same chart as we showed before, but it's new adoptions. And this is really telling. >> Yeah. >> You can see Snowflake with 34% in the yellow, new adoptions, down yes from previous surveys, but still significantly higher than the other players. Interesting to see Google showing momentum on new adoptions, AWS down on new adoptions. And again, exposed to a lot of industries that have been hard hit. And Microsoft actually quite low on new adoption. So this is very impressive for Snowflake. And I want to talk about the multi-cloud strategy now Erik. This came up a lot. The VENN participants who are sort of fans of Snowflake said three things: It was really the flexibility, the security which is really interesting to me. And a lot of that had to do with the flexibility. The ability to easily set up roles and not have to waste a lot of time wrangling. And then the third was multi-cloud. And that was really something that came through heavily in the VENN. Didn't it? >> It really did. And again, I think it just comes down to, I don't think you can ever overstate how afraid these guys are of vendor lock-in. They can't have it. They don't want it. And it's best practice to make sure your sensitive information is being kind of spread out a little bit. We all know that people don't trust Bezos. So if you're in certain industries, you're not going to use AWS at all, right? So yeah, this ability to have your data portability through multi-cloud is the number one reason I think people start looking at Snowflake. And to go to your point about the adoptions, it's very telling and it bodes well for them going forward. Most of the things that we're seeing right now are net new workloads. So let's go again back to the legacy side that we were talking about, the Teradatas, IBMs, Oracles. They still have the monolithic applications and the data that needs to support that, right? Like an old ERP type of thing. But anyone who's now building a new application, bringing something new to market, it's all net new workloads. There is no net new workload that is going to go to SAP or IBM. It's not going to happen. The net new workloads are going to the cloud. And that's why when you switch from net score to adoption, you see Snowflake really stand out because this is about new adoption for net new workloads. And that's really where they're driving everything. So I would just say that as this continues, as data as a service continues, I think Snowflake's only going to gain more and more share for all the reasons you stated. Now get back to your comment about security. I was shocked by that. I really was. I did not expect these guys to say, "Oh, no. Snowflake enterprise security not a concern." So two panels ago, a gentleman from a fortune 100 financials said, "Listen, it's very difficult to get us to sign off on something for security. Snowflake is past it, it is enterprise ready, and we are going full steam ahead." Once they got that go ahead, there was no turning back. We gave it to our DevOps guys, we gave it to everyone and said, "Run with it." So, when a company that's big, I believe their fortune rank is 28. (laughs) So when a company that big says, "Yeah, you've got the green light. That we were okay with the internal compliance aspect, we're okay with the security aspect, this gives us multi-cloud portability, this gives us flexibility, ease of use." Honestly there's a really long runway ahead for Snowflake. >> Yeah, so the big question I have around the multi-cloud piece and I totally and I've been on record saying, "Look, if you're going looking for an agnostic multi-cloud, you're probably not going to go with the cloud vendor." (laughs) But I've also said that I think multi-cloud to date anyway has largely been a symptom as opposed to a strategy, but that's changing. But to your point about lock-in and also I think people are maybe looking at doing things across clouds, but I think that certainly it expands Snowflake's TAM and we're going to talk about that because they support multiple clouds and they're going to be the best at that. That's a mandate for them. The question I have is how much of complex joining are you going to be doing across clouds? And is that something that is just going to be too latency intensive? Is that really Snowflake's expertise? You're really trying to build that data layer. You're probably going to maybe use some kind of Postgres database for that. >> Right. >> I don't know. I need to dig into that, but that would be an opportunity from a TAM standpoint. I just don't know how real that is. >> Yeah, unfortunately I'm going to just be honest with this one. I don't think I have great expertise there and I wouldn't want to lead anyone a wrong direction. But from what I've heard from some of my VENN interview subjects, this is happening. So the data portability needs to be agnostic to the cloud. I do think that when you're saying, are there going to be real complex kind of workloads and applications? Yes, the answer is yes. And I think a lot of that has to do with some of the container architecture as well, right? If I can just pull data from one spot, spin it up for as long as I need and then just get rid of that container, that ethereal layer of compute. It doesn't matter where the cloud lies. It really doesn't. I do think that multi-cloud is the way of the future. I know that the container workloads right now in the enterprise are still very small. I've heard people say like, "Yeah, I'm kicking the tires. We got 5%." That's going to grow. And if Snowflake can make themselves an integral part of that, then yes. I think that's one of those things where, I remember the guy said, "Snowflake has to continue to innovate. They have to find a way to grow this TAM." This is an area where they can do so. I think you're right about that, but as far as my expertise, on this one I'm going to be honest with you and say, I don't want to answer incorrectly. So you and I need to dig in a little bit on this one. >> Yeah, as it relates to question four, what's the viability of Snowflake's multi-cloud strategy? I'll say unquestionably supporting multiple clouds, very viable. Whether or not portability across clouds, multi-cloud joins, et cetera, TBD. So we'll keep digging into that. The last thing I want to focus on here is the last question, does Snowflake's TAM justify its $20 billion valuation? And you think about the data pipeline. You go from data acquisition to data prep. I mean, that really is where Snowflake shines. And then of course there's analysis. You've got to bring in EMI or AI and ML tools. That's not Snowflake's strength. And then you're obviously preparing that, serving that up to the business, visualization. So there's potential adjacencies that they could get into that they may or may not decide to. But so we put together this next chart which is kind of the TAM expansion opportunity. And I just want to briefly go through it. We published this stuff so you can go and look at all the fine print, but it's kind of starts with the data lake disruption. You called it data swamp before. The Hadoop no schema on, right? Basically the ROI of Hadoop became reduction of investment as my friend Abby Meadow would say. But so they're kind of disrupting that data lake which really was a failure. And then really going after that enterprise data warehouse which is kind of I have it here as a 10 billion. It's actually bigger than that. It's probably more like a $20 billion market. I'll update this slide. And then really what Snowflake is trying to do is be data as a service. A data layer across data stores, across clouds, really make it easy to ingest and prepare data and then serve the business with insights. And then ultimately this huge TAM around automated decision making, real-time analytics, automated business processes. I mean, that is potentially an enormous market. We got a couple of hundred billion. I mean, just huge. Your thoughts on their TAM? >> I agree. I'm not worried about their TAM and one of the reasons why as I mentioned before, they are coming out with a whole lot of cash. (laughs) This is going to be a red hot IPO. They are going to have a lot of money to spend. And look at their management team. Who is leading the way? A very successful, wise, intelligent, acquisitive type of CEO. I think there is going to be M&A activity, and I believe that M&A activity is going to be 100% for the mindset of growing their TAM. The entire world is moving to data as a service. So let's take as a backdrop. I'm going to go back to the panel we did yesterday. The first question we asked was, there was an understanding or a theory that when the virus pandemic hit, people wouldn't be taking on any sort of net new architecture. They're like, "Okay, I have Teradata, I have IBM. Let's just make sure the lights are on. Let's stick with it." Every single person I've asked, they're just now eight different experts, said to us, "Oh, no. Oh, no, no." There is the virus pandemic, the shift from work from home. Everything we're seeing right now has only accelerated and advanced our data as a service strategy in the cloud. We are building for scale, adopting cloud for data initiatives. So, across the board they have a great backdrop. So that's going to only continue, right? This is very new. We're in the early innings of this. So for their TAM, that's great because that's the core of what they do. Now on top of it you mentioned the type of things about, yeah, right now they don't have great machine learning. That could easily be acquired and built in. Right now they don't have an analytics layer. I for one would love to see these guys talk to Alteryx. Alteryx is red hot. We're seeing great data and great feedback on them. If they could do that business intelligence, that analytics layer on top of it, the entire suite as a service, I mean, come on. (laughs) Their TAM is expanding in my opinion. >> Yeah, your point about their leadership is right on. And I interviewed Frank Slootman right in the heart of the pandemic >> So impressed. >> and he said, "I'm investing in engineering almost sight unseen. More circumspect around sales." But I will caution people. That a lot of people I think see what Slootman did with ServiceNow. And he came into ServiceNow. I have to tell you. It was they didn't have their unit economics right, they didn't have their sales model and marketing model. He cleaned that up. Took it from 120 million to 1.2 billion and really did an amazing job. People are looking for a repeat here. This is a totally different situation. ServiceNow drove a truck through BMCs install base and with IT help desk and then created this brilliant TAM expansion. Let's learn and expand model. This is much different here. And Slootman also told me that he's a situational CEO. He doesn't have a playbook. And so that's what is most impressive and interesting about this. He's now up against the biggest competitors in the world: AWS, Google and Microsoft and dozens of other smaller startups that have raised a lot of money. Look at the company like Yellowbrick. They've raised I don't know $180 million. They've got a great team. Google, IBM, et cetera. So it's going to be really, really fun to watch. I'm super excited, Erik, but I'll tell you the data right now suggest they've got a great tailwind and if they can continue to execute, this is going to be really fun to watch. >> Yeah, certainly. I mean, when you come out and you are as impressive as Snowflake is, you get a target on your back. There's no doubt about it, right? So we said that they basically created the data as a service. That's going to invite competition. There's no doubt about it. And Yellowbrick is one that came up in the panel yesterday about one of our CIOs were doing a proof of concept with them. We had about seven others mentioned as well that are startups that are in this space. However, none of them despite their great valuation and their great funding are going to have the kind of money and the market lead that Slootman is going to have which Snowflake has as this comes out. And what we're seeing in Congress right now with some antitrust scrutiny around the large data that's being collected by AWS as your Google, I'm not going to bet against this guy either. Right now I think he's got a lot of opportunity, there's a lot of additional layers and because he can basically develop this as a suite service, I think there's a lot of great opportunity ahead for this company. >> Yeah, and I guarantee that he understands well that customer acquisition cost and the lifetime value of the customer, the retention rates. Those are all things that he and Mike Scarpelli, his CFO learned at ServiceNow. Not learned, perfected. (Erik laughs) Well Erik, really great conversation, awesome data. It's always a pleasure having you on. Thank you so much, my friend. I really appreciate it. >> I appreciate talking to you too. We'll do it again soon. And stay safe everyone out there. >> All right, and thank you for watching everybody this episode of "CUBE Insights" powered by ETR. This is Dave Vellante, and we'll see you next time. (soft music)

from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston connecting with thought leaders all around the world this is a cube conversation CIOs and CISOs of industries that have been hard hit see significant near term and many permanent shifts to their IT and security strategies this was the consensus of four technology executives at leading companies that are feeling the brunt of the corona virus pandemic welcome to this week's cube insights powered by ETR my name is Dave Volante and in this breaking analysis we want to accomplish three things first we want to tap into a new piece of research from ETR it involves an intimate focus group like set up via an open discussion with leading technology executives we interviewed Eric Bradley the managing director of et ours then program and we'll bring him into this discussion the next thing we want to do is we want to drill in to the various sector commentaries from the four leaders third we're gonna comment an hour take try to add some color and then share with you some of the specific vendor commentary that was called out by the executives let's start by looking at what et our event is et our van is a roundtable discussion it applies a tried-and-true methodology similar to a focus group or in-depth interviews what we sometimes in the research business call ID is ETR invites execs in from its community to participate in a private but open conversation et our clients get to listen in the names of the execs and their companies are transparent but the cube is only allowed to refer to them generically as shown on this slide now we can validate these participants they are legit CIOs and CISOs some and very well-known firms now what I want to do is summarize the CIO and seaso sentiment from this then discussion the overall budget impact for these four organizations is very very severe essentially large project projects are being put on hold although digital transformation initiatives remain a priority there were really four significant areas of emphasis that were cited by these execs cloud-first on-prem is losing out to cloud SAS and of course remote access solutions in fact the best comment on the panel was as a service is saving our SAS traditional networking is shifting to SD win especially rigid MPLS networks securing endpoints and zero trust solutions are the winners and there are a number of vendors rising to the occasion that will talk about it let's see how Eric Bradley of ETR summarizes the venn to summarize what we're seeing here was the real winners and losers are clear not everyone was prepared to have it work from home strategy not everyone was prepared to send their workers out there VPN wasn't didn't have enough bandwidth so there was a real quick uptick in spending but longer-term we're starting to see that these changes will be become more permanent so the real winners and losers right now we're going to see on the losers side traditional networking the MPLS networking isn't a lot of trouble according to all the data and the commentary that we see it's expensive it's difficult to ramp up bandwidth as quickly as you need and it doesn't support remote ok what I want to do now is I want to take a look at some of the verbatim comments and I'll just I'll read them from this slide all spending is shut down 70% of big projects are cut all next-gen projects have been shelled the relationship with our SAS vendor has been a miracle we're accelerating from MPLS to sd when on top of secure gateway technologies these will win this was interesting our business continuity plans were way too DR focused essentially we weren't prepared now let's unpack the cloud first commentary and give you some additional color I feel like all we do around here sometimes is talk about the cloud but it's clear from the data in the ETR data set surveys and the venn that in other data from the cube that that the cloud is only going to be accelerated we said this in 2008 in the 2009 downturns have been good to cloud one of the execs literally said I would like to see my data centers completely deleted Wow let's listen to Erik Bradley's take on this comment I was also shocked about that comment that gentleman also stated that his executives outside of the eyeteeth area the CEO the CFO had never ever ever wanted to discuss cloud they did not want to discuss work from home they did not want to discuss remote access he said that conversation has changed immediately so we've been talking a lot about those aspects of people and process and technology that might be permanent post kovat and clearly you see c-level execs as having a bit of an awakening for things like cloud and work from home not that they didn't see them before but these things are gonna accelerate in our view I want to spend a minute talking about networks SAS and bring cloud again into the discussion I gotta say the panel members really trashed MPLS networks in a big way let me explain MPLS stands for multi-protocol label switching you find this type of infrastructure in big telecom networks and it's there to route traffic and pls is used to create dedicated and and essentially reliable connections it enables things like VPNs quality a service management traffic engineering or shaping but well MPLS is definitely cheaper than t1 it's more expensive than Ethernet now I came into prominence well before the cloud and these execs see it is as outdated and inflexible and this is where SD wind comes into play software-defined wide area networks they're gaining popularity especially with the Sassa fication of applications and of course the general trend toward cloud here's Eric Bradley again explaining what the panel members said from his perspectives winners there or in the SD web space it's gonna be impossible to ignore that going forward and some of our CIO and even CISO panelists said that change will be also we're seeing at the same time what they were calling a on on SAS and cloud now we know these trends obviously were already happening but there be they're being exacerbated they're happening even more quickly and more strong and I don't see that changing anytime soon that of course is at the expense of network sorry data centers whether it be your own or hosted which has huge ramifications on from on from Hardware even the firewall providers so and it really seems as if as networking refresh starts to come up and it's coming up with a lot of large in writes when your network refresh comes up people are going to do an RFP for SD web they are sick and tired of paying MPLS network vendors and they really want to look at something else that was even prior to this situation now what we're hearing is this is a permanent change I particularly had one person say I wanted to find this quote real quickly by then but basically they were basically saying that from a permanency perspective the freedom from MPLS will reduce our network spend by over half while more than doubling or tripling or bandwidth now the challenge of course is customers have multiple MPLS contracts with several different vendors and often they just rubber-stamp the renewal but what customers are gonna start doing is layering in SD win and letting those agreements expire ok I want to talk about secure endpoints in this notion of zero trust solutions as I've said in the cube many many times the idea of digging a moat around the castle doesn't protect your queen anymore because the Queen ie the data has left the castle so companies that can secure gateways and secure endpoints they are going to have more momentum during and post kovat now in the panel Z scalar came up a lot in this context as well as fortunate who as I've reported has done a good job in getting its cloud products to market and of course the et our data shows that fortunate and Z scalar both have strong net scores or spending momentum and fort net especially has really strong pervasiveness in the et our dataset as I've reported previously I've also analyzed that there's been evaluation divergence between Palo Alto Networks and fortunate and house II scalar as well is a disruptor in this space I want you to listen to what Eric Bradley said specifically about Z scalar in Palo Alto Networks roll the clip yes it is and I'm glad you brought up Z scalar to very recently by client request we did a very in-depth research on Z scale and versus Palo Alto charisma access and they were very interested this is before all this happened you know does Palo Alto have a chance of catching up taking share from Z scalar and I've had the pleasure myself personally hosting J the CEO of Z scalar at an event here at City and I have nothing but incredible respect for the company but what we found out through this research is Z scalar at the moment their technology is still ahead according to their and there is no doubt however there doesn't seem to be any real secret sauce that will stop palo alto from inching up so if I had to choose that in a year from now Palo Alto might have had a better chance so in this panel as you brought up Z scalar was mentioned numerous times as just the wave of the future along with Cosby brokers right whether you're talking about a net scope or a force point they're all those people that also play in The Cosby space to secure your access zero Trust is no longer a marketing hype term it is real and it is becoming more real by the week now I personally agree with Eric that palo alto is is definitely going to be in the mix customers that we've talked to they want to work with palo alto networks but there's a sea change going on and it's being driven by sass and cloud and now accelerating because a co vid of course that the trend of remote workers is we think here to stay now i want to end by talking about some specific vendor mentions in addition to the ones we've talked about already and this chart shows some of the vendors and their logos that were called out as either being really really helpful during the this pandemic or super important to the CIOs and CISOs these executives really stressed how thankful they are to these companies and that the fact that these companies have worked very closely with them they've been flexible on pricing and payments and they also specifically mentioned how off-put they were by you know this notion of ambulance-chasing for example trials that required them to make some kind of commitment or swipe a credit card they just don't have time for that right now and then of the patience for it now let me call out a few of the companies that were cited in a positive light look at microsoft is all for the ETR data set in so many sectors Microsoft teams security solutions cloud really came up a lot on on this ven IBM was mentioned as being a great partner as what's oracle many many times we talked about fortunate and Z scalar already Cisco was called out as a strategic vendor was very helpful both the networking and with Cisco teams for collaboration CrowdStrike came up a number of times from CISOs as did Trend Micro and carbon black got a mention that's the VMware acquisition insecurity of course MobileIron that makes sense as well because they're securing and managing remote worker devices now finally interesting Lee Salesforce was brought up many times as a critical vendor one exec said that before coronavirus multiple workers could share a Salesforce license by you know sharing passwords but with the spike and work from home they had to purchase more licenses now one last thing that I want to bring up is start ups I got this question the other day from a client who said how a start-ups fair you might think that in this climate especially among for hard-hit customers that there might be risk-averse as it pertains to using startups once cio however said the following paraphrasing you always hear about the guy that says we'll pick three companies in the upper right hand corner the Gartner Magic Quadrant will test them out and this C so said that one of the things that he's always done is picked two from the upper right and one from the lower left one of the emerging techs and he gives them a shot let's listen to how Eric Bradley describes this dynamic roll the clip it's a great comment and honestly if you're in charge of procurement you'd be stupid not to do that not only just to see what the technology is but now I can play you off the big guys because I have negotiating leverage and I could say oh well I could always just take their contract so it's silly not to do it from a business perspective so it's really interesting and somewhat non-intuitive these comments on startups which of course means despite all the consolidation and acquisitions that you see in the industry you know there's still gonna be a lot of fragmentations a fragmentation especially as I've said many many times in the security space people still want best to breed and innovation and if it can drive business value they're gonna they're gonna go for it ok so look I realize that these are narrow comments from for CIOs and CISOs but they give us some added texture and flavor and color to the core ETR data set and we're going to continue to report on these trends and share more details as they become available both from the ETR data set and from other vents and remember we're gonna be digging into the latest ETR survey over the over the coming weeks as ETR exits its self-imposed quiet period so you can always check out ETR dot plus I publish weekly on wiki bang calm and on Silicon angle calm and of course our YouTube library has all these videos that's youtube.com slash silicon angle by the way these segments are also available as podcasts you can DM me or tweet me at devil ante and please by all means comment on my LinkedIn posts or email me at David Galante at Silicon angle com always appreciate the feedback thanks for watching everybody this is breaking analysis brought to you by the cube powered by ETR this is Dave Volante and we'll see you next time thanks for watching [Music]

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, connecting with thought leaders all around the world, this is a CUBE Conversation. >> Hello, everybody, this is Dave Vellante, and welcome to this breaking analysis. I'm here with Erik Bradley, who's the managing director of ETR and runs their VENN program. Erik, good to see you. >> Very nice to see you too, Dave. Hope you're doing well. >> Yeah, I'm doing okay, hanging in there. You know, you guys in New York are fighting the battle, looks like we're making some progress here, so all the best to you and your family and the wider community. I'm really excited to have you on today because I had the pleasure of sitting in on a CIO/CISO panel last week and we're going to explain sort of what that's all about but one of the things that ETR does that I really like is they go deeper with anecdotal information, and it's almost like in depth interviews in these round tables. So they compliment their quarterly surveys and their other drilldown surveys with other anecdotal information from people in their communities, so it's a tried and true survey practice that adds some color to the data set. So guys, if you'd bring up the agenda, I want to share with the audience what we're going to talk about today. So, we'll talk a little bit about, you know, we just did intros. I wanted to ask Erik what ETR VENN is and then we will go through some of the guests, but if we go back to Erik, explain a little bit about VENN and the whole process, and how you guys do that? >> Yes, sure we should hire you for marketing, you just did a great job actually describing that, but about three years ago, what we decided was, ETR does an amazing job collecting the data. It can tell you what's happening, who it's happening to, and when it's happening, but it can't always tell you why it's happening. So leveraging a lot of my background in 20 plus years in journalism and the institution of Wall Street research, we decided to take the ETR community, the people that actually take the surveys and start doing interviews with them, and start doing events with them. And in enable to doing that, we're basically just trying to complement the survey findings and the data. So what we always say is that ETR will give you the quantitative answer and VENN will give you the qualitative answer. >> Now guys, let's bring up the agenda slide again, let's take a look at the folks that participated in the round table, now, for ETR's clients, they actually know the names and the titles and well the company that these guys work for. We've anonymized it for the public, but you had a CIO of a global auto supplier, a CISO of a diversified holdings firm who actually had some hospitality exposure, but also some government contract manufacturing exposure, a chief architect of a software ISV, and a VP and CISO of a global hospitality resort chain. So you had three out of the four, Erik were really in industries that are getting hit hard, obviously you know the software company, may be a little bit better but, maybe you could add some color to that? >> Well actually the software company unfortunately was getting hit hard as well because they're a software ISV that actually plays into the manufacturing space as well so this particular panel of CIOs and CISOs were actually in a very hard hit industries and are going to make sure we do two more follow ups with different industry verticals to make sure we're getting a little bit of a wider berth and collect all of that information in a better way. But coming back to this particular call the whole reason we did this and as you know you spoke to my colleague and friend Sagar Kadakia who is the director of research for ETR. And we were nimble enough to actually change our survey while it was in the field to start collecting data on what the real time impact was on the COVID-19 pandemic. We were able to take that information, extrapolate it and then say, okay, let's start reaching out to these people and dig deeper, find out why it's happening and even more so is it permanent? And which vendors are going to win and which vendors might lose from it? So that was the whole reason we set up a series of calls, we've only conducted one so far, we have another one this coming Tuesday as well with four entirely new panelists that are going to be from different industry verticals 'cause as you astutely pointed out, these verticals were very hard hit and not all of them are as hard as others, so it's important to get a wider cross-section. >> So guys, let's take a look at some of the budget impacts, the anecdotal sort of evidence that we gathered here, so let me just scan through it and then Erik, I'll ask you to comment. So, I mean like Erik said, some hard hit industries. All major projects, anything sort of next-gen have been essentially shelved, that was the ISV and then another one we cut at least 70% of the big projects moving forward, he mentioned ServiceNow actually called him out, but ServiceNow is a SaaS company, probably you know weather the storm here, but he did say, we've put that on hold. The best comment you know As-a-Service has Saved our Saas, (laughs) that one's great. And then we're going to get into some of the networking commentary, some really interesting things about how to support the work from home, you know we're kind of shifting from a hardened top into users, remote workers and then a lot of commentary on security, so you know that's sort of a high level scan and there's just so much information here, Erik but maybe you could sort of summarize on some of those, that commentary? >> Yeah, we should definitely dig in to each of those sectors a little more, but to summarize what we're seeing here was the real winners and losers are clear. Not everyone was prepared to have a work from home strategy. Not everyone was prepared to send their workers out, their VPN didn't have enough bandwidth so there was a real quick uptake in spending, but longer term we're starting to see that these changes will become more permeant. So the real winners and losers right now, we're going to see on the losers side traditional networking, the MPLS networking is in a lot of trouble according to all the data and the commentary that we're seeing, it's expensive, it's difficult to ramp up bandwidth as quickly as you need and it doesn't support remote. So we're seeing that lose out and the winners there are in the SD-WAN space, it's going to be impossible to ignore that going forward and some of our CIO and even CISO panelists said that change will be permanent. Also we're seeing at the same time, what they were calling a run SaaS and cloud, now we know these trends obviously were already happening but they're being exacerbated, they're happening even more quickly and more strong and I don't see that changing any time soon. That of course is at the expense of data centers, whether it be your own or hosted. Which has huge ramifications on on-prem hardware, even the firewall providers. So what we're seeing here is obviously we know things are going to be impacted by this situation, we didn't necessarily expect all of our community members and IT decision makers to talk about them being possibly permanent, so that on a high level was something that was extremely interesting. And the last one that I would bring up is that as we make this shift towards working from home, towards remote access, you also have to align yourself with the security that can support that. And one of the things that we're seeing in our data side on ETR, is a widening bifurcation between the next-gen security vendors and the more traditional security or the legacy security players, that bifurcation just keeps getting wider and wider and this situation could be the last straw. >> So I want to follow up on a couple of those things, you talked about sort of the network shift and toward SD-WAN, what people have described to me is that they've got a hardened top, it's a hierarchal network, it's very well understood, and it's safe right, and now all of a sudden you got all these remote workers and so you've got to completely sort of rethink your whole network architecture, the other thing I want to grill into is your cloud commentary. There's a comment that I saw Erik, that really stood out, one of the folks said, I would like to see the data centers be completely deleted, if you will or closed down, I mean I think we're going to see you know, a lot more of this, obviously. Not only from the standpoint of, and you heard this a lot the kind of pay by the drink, but just generally getting rid of all that sort of so called non-differentiated heavy lifting as we often hear about. >> That is a extreme comment, I don't think everyone feels that way, but yes, the comment was made and we've heard that comment from other people as you and I both know the larger the enterprise the harder that is to go completely SaaS, but yeah, when a situation like this happens and seeing the inflexibility of their on-prem infrastructure, yes it becomes something that really has to be addressed and it can become a permanent change, I was also shocked about that comment. That gentleman also stated that his executives outside of the IT area, the CEO, the CFO had never ever, ever wanted to discuss cloud, they did not want to discuss work from home, they did not want to discuss remote access. He said that conversation has changed immediately and to the credit of the actual IT companies out there, the technology companies, they're doing everything they can with this opportunity to make that happen. >> Yeah and so, right, I mean the whole work from home conversation that's to your point earlier, Erik, big chunks of COVID, you know the post COVID world are going to remain permanent, guys bring up the SaaS slide if you will, the SaaS commentary "As-a-Service-Saved our SaaS" as the wittiest quip award according to ETR, you know but you had, it was very interesting to hear folks, in fact I think somebody even called out, hey you know we expected Oracle to be auditing us but they're actually being very supportive as is IBM, SalesForce was an interesting comment Erik, one of the folks said they would share accounts you know on-prem but when they all do the work from home they had to actually buy some more. You also got Cisco with big props, Microsoft was called out, a lot of organizations actually allowing them to defer payments, so the SaaS vendors actually got very high marks, didn't they? >> They really did and even I wrote that summary and it was difficult to write that about Oracle because we all know that they're infamous for auditing their own customers in 2009, right after we we came out of the financial crisis. They have notoriously been a bad act, I don't know if they found religion and they decided to be nice to their customers, but every single person mentioned them as one of the vendors that was actually helping. That was very shocking. And then we all know that when bad situations happen people become opportunistic and right now it's really seeming that the SaaS vendors understand that they need a longterm relationship with these customers and they're being altruistic instead which is really nice to see. >> Yeah, I think the, I think anybody with a cloud realizes that hey, we have an opportunity here, the lifetime value of that customer whereas maybe in 2009 when Oracle didn't have a cloud they had to get people in a headlock to try to preserve their you know income statement. If we, let's go to the networking drilldown guys, that next slide, because Fortinet, some of the things that we've been reporting on is the sort of divergence in valuations between Fortinet and Palo Alto before this whole thing hit. Fortinet has done a really good job with it's cloud offerings, Palo Alto struggled a little bit with trying to figure out the sales compensation, is maybe a little bit behind, although both companies got strong props and I've talked to a number of customers and Palo Alto's going to be in the mix, but Fortinet from a cloud standpoint seems to be doing quite well, obviously networking, you know Cisco is the big gorilla there, but so and we also got call outs from guys like Trend Micro, which was interesting from some of the folks so your thoughts on this Erik? >> Yeah, I'll start in the networking side because this is something that I really, I've dug into quite amount in not only this panel but a lot of interviews and it really seems as if as networking refresh starts to come up and it's coming up with a lot of large importers, when your network refresh comes up, people are going to do an RFP for SD-WAN. They are sick and tired of paying MPLS network vendors and they really want to look at something else. That was even prior to this situation. Now what we're hearing is this is a permanent change, I particularly had one person say, I wanted to find this quote real quickly if I can, but basically they were basically saying that from a permanency perspective, the freedom from MPLS will reduce our network spend by over half, while more than doubling or tripling our bandwidth. You can't ignore that, you're going to save me money and triple my bandwidth. And hey, by the way, my refresh is due, it's something that's coming and it's going to happen. And yes you mentioned a few, right, there's Viptela, there's VeloCloud, there's some big players like Cisco. But Palo Alto just acquired CloudGenix in the midst of all of this. They just went and got an SD-WAN player themselves and they just keep acquiring a portfolio to shift from their on-prem to next-gen. It's going to take some time, 'cause 70% plus of their revenue is still on-prem hardware, but I do believe that their portfolio that they're creating is the way the world is moving and that's just one comment on the traditional networking versus the next-gen SD-WAN. >> And the customers have indicated you know it's not easy just to get off of their MPLS networks. I mean it takes time, it's like slowly pulling off the bandaid, but like many things COVID-19 is sort of accelerating that, we haven't talked about digital transformation, that came up. As a maybe more strategic initiative, but one that you know very clearly has legs. >> You know David, it's very simple, you just said it, people, when things are going well and they're comfortable they don't change and that's the same for an enterprise or a company, hey everything's great, our revenue's fine, why would we do this? We'll worry about that next year. Then something like this happens and you realize wow, we've been dragging our feet. That digital transformation that we've been talking about and we've been a little bit slow to accept, we need to accept it, we need to move now. And yes, it was another one of the major themes and it sounds silly for researchers like you and I, because we know this is a theme, we know cloud adoption is there, we know digital transformation is there, but there are still a lot of people that haven't moved as quickly as they should and this is going to be that final catalyst to get them there without a doubt. Quickly on your point of Fortinet, I was actually very impressed with the commentary that came from that because Fortinet is sometimes one of those names that you think of that maybe plays in a smaller pool or isn't as big as some of the 800 pound gorillas out there, but in other interviews besides this I heard the phrase point of 40 everything, so through our R&D and through acquisitions, Fortinet has really expanded their portfolio. And right now is their time to shine because when you have smaller satellite you know offices and branches that you need to connect, they're really, really good at it. And you don't always want to call a Palo Alto and pay that price, when you have smaller branch offices and I actually I was glad you brought up Fortinet because it's not a name that we get to herald that often and it was deserving from this panel. >> Yeah and you know companies that can secure gateways, secure endpoints are obviously going to have momentum, Zscaler came up, you know I think that's and I tell you looking at I've done a couple of breaking analysis on security, and Fortinet has been strong in two dimensions, you know ETR as our audience is I think getting to know, we really look at two key metrics, one is a net score which is a measure of spending momentum and the other is market share, which is a measure of pervasiveness, and companies like Fortinet in security, you know show up on both of those dimensions so it's notable. >> Yes, it certainly is, it is and I'm glad you brought up Zscaler too, very recently by strong request we did a very in depth research on Zscaler versus Palo Alto Prisma access. And they were very interested and this was before all this happened. You know does Palo Alto have a chance of catching up, taking share from Zscaler? And I've had the pleasure myself personally hosting Jay, the CEO of Zscaler at an event in New York City. And I have nothing but incredible respect for the company. But what we found out through this research is Zscaler at the moment their technology is still ahead according to their answers there is no doubt, however there doesn't seem to be any real secret sauce that will stop Palo Alto from catching up. So we do believe that parody of a feature set will shrink over time and then it'll come down to Palo Alto who obviously has a wider end-user interface. Now, what's happening today might change that because if I had to make a decision right now for my company on secure web gateway, I'm still probably going to got to Zscaler, it's the name. If I had to choose that in a year from now, Palo Alto might have had a better chance, so in this panel as you brought up, Zscaler was mentioned numerous times as just the wave of the future along with CASB Brokers, right, whether you're talking about a Netskope or Forcepoint, all those people that also play in the CASB space, to secure your access, zero trust is no longer a marketing hype term, it is real and it is becoming more real by the week. >> And so I want to kind of end on one of the other comments that really struck me because we're constantly talking about okay, do you go with a portfolio of a suite of services or do you go with best of breed, what about startups? Are startups more risky in a crisis like this? And one of your panelists, I just loved his comment, he said, one of the things that I've always done, he said, you always hear about the guy, oh we're going to to the garden, we're going to check out the magic water, we'll pick out three guys in the upper right hand corner and test them out, he says, one of the things that I've always liked to do, is I'll pick two from the upper right, and I'll take one from the lower left, one of the emerging techs and I'll give them a shot, they won't win every time but then he called out FireEye as one of the organizations that he found early that gave them competitive advantage. >> Right. >> Love that comment. >> It's a great comment and honestly if you're in charge of procurement, you'd be stupid not to do that. Not only just to see what the technology is, but now I can play you off the big guys because I have negotiation leverage and I can say, oh well I can always just take their contract. So it's silly not to do it from a business perspective, but from a technology perspective what we kept hearing from these people with the smaller vendors and my partner Peter Steube, my colleague and I we did the host together, we asked this question, really believing that the financial insecurity of the moment in the times would make smaller vendors not viable. We heard the exact opposite, what our panelists said was no, I'd be happy to work with a smaller vendor right now because they're going to give me pricing flexibility, they're going to work with me right now, I don't need to pay them upfront because we're seeing a permanent shift from CAPEX to OPEX and the smaller vendors are willing to work with me and I can pay them later. So we were actually surprised to hear that and glad to hear it because to connect to your other point, the other person who was talking about security in a platform approach versus best of breed, he said listen, platform approaches you're already with the vendor you can bundle a little bit, but the problem is if you're just going to acquire a new technology every time there's a new threat, the bad guys are just going to switch the threat and you can't acquire indefinitely so therefore best of breed with security will always beat platform and that's kind of a message to Palo Alto and Cisco in my opinion because they seem to be the ones fighting that out, even Microsoft now trying to say that they're a platform approach in security. >> Wow and it says to me the security business is going to as we predicted is going to stay fragmented because you're still going to get that best of breed, you know just like cloud is going to be fragmented and it's you know multiple vendors, ever since I've been in this business people are trying to consolidate the number of vendors but technology moves so quickly, it gives competitive advantage, Erik, awesome thank you so much for joining us, I'm looking forward to next Tuesday with the next VENN and love to have you back and talk about it any time, you're a great guest, thanks so much. >> Certainly! I'll do my best to get a better AV connection the next time guys, I apologize for that, but it was great talking to you guys. >> Hey, we're all learning you know, so thank you everybody for watching, this Dave Vellante for theCUBE and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto, in Boston connecting with alt leaders all around the world, This is a CUBE conversation. >> Hello everybody, this is Dave Vellante and welcome to this Breaking Analysis. I'm here with Erik Bradley, who's the managing director of ETR and runs their VEN program. Erik good to see you. >> Very nice to see you too Dave. Hope you're doing well. >> Yeah, I'm doing okay hanging in there. You know, you guys in New York are fighting the battle. Looks like we're making some progress here so, you know, all the best, you and your family and the wider community. I'm really excited to have you on today because I had the pleasure of sitting in on a CIO/ CISO panel last week. And we're going to explain sort of what that's all about, but one of the things ETR does that I really like is they go deeper with anecdotal information and it's almost like in-depth interviews in these round tables. So they compliment their quarterly surveys, and their other drill down surveys, with other anecdotal information for people in their community. So it's a tried and true survey practice that adds some color to the dataset. So guys if you bring up the agenda, I want to share with the audience what we're going to talk about today. So, we'll talk a little bit about, you know we just did intros, I want to ask Erik, what ETR VENN is and then we'll go through some of the guests, but if we go back to Erik, explain a little bit about VENN and the whole process and how you guys do that. >> Yeah sure, we should hire you for marketing. You just did a great job, actually, describing that, but about three years ago what we decided was, ETR does an amazing job collecting the data. It can tell you what's happening, who it's happening to and when it's happening. But it can't always tell you why it's happened. So leveraging a lot of my background in twenty-plus years in journalism and institutional Wall Street research, we decided to take the ETR community, the people that actually take the surveys, and start doing interviews with them and start doing events with them. And enable to doing that, we're basically just trying to compliment the survey findings and the data. So what we always say is that ETR will always give you the quantitative answer and VENN will give you the qualitative answer. >> Now guys, let's bring up the agenda slide again, let's take a look at the folks that participated in the round table. Now, for ETR's clients, they actually know the names and the titles and well the company that these guys work for. We've anonymized it for the public. But you had a CIO of a Global Auto Supplier, a CISO of a Diversified Holdings Firm, who actually had some hospitality exposure but also some government contract manufacturing exposure. Chief Architect of a Software ISV and a VP and CISO of a Global Hospitality Resort Chain. So you had three out of the for, Erik, were really in industries that are getting hit hard. Obviously the software company maybe a little bit better. But maybe you can add some color to that. >> Well actually the software company, unfortunately, was getting hit hard as well because they're a software ISV that actually plays into the manufacturing space as well. So, this particular panel of CIOs and CISOs were actually in a very hard hit industries. And are going to make sure we do two more follow-ups with different industry verticals to make sure we're getting a little bit of a wider berth and collect all of that information in a better way. But coming back to this particular call, the whole reason we did this, and as you know, you spoke to my colleague and friend, Sagar Kadakia, who is the Director of Research for ETR, and we were nimble enough to actually change our survey while it was in the field, to start collecting data on what the real-time impact was on the COVID-19 pandemic. We were able to take that information, extrapolate it, and then say okay let's start reading out to these people and dig deeper. Find out why it's happening and even more so, is it permanent? And which vendors are going to win and which vendors might lose from it. So that was the whole reason we set up the series of calls. We've only conducted on so far. We have another one this coming Tuesday as well with four entirely new panelists that are going to be from different industry verticals because, as you astutely pointed out, these verticals were very hard hit and not all of them are as hard as others. So it's important to get a wider cross-section. >> So, guys let's take a look at some of the budget impacts the anecdotal evidence that we gathered here. So let me just scan through it and then Erik, I'll ask you to comment. So, you know, like Erik said, some hard hit industries. All major projects, anything sort of next-generation, have been essentially shelved. That was the ISV. And then another one, we cut at least 70% of the big projects moving forward. He mentioned ServiceNow actually calls them out, but the ServiceNow is a SaaS company they'll probably, you know, weather the storm here. But he did say we've put that on hold. The best comment, you know, "As-a-service has Saved our SaaS." (Erik laughs) That one's great. And then we're going to get into some of the networking commentary. Some really interesting things about how to support the work from home. You know, kind of shifting from a hardened top into remote workers. And then a lot of commentary on security. So, you know, that's sort of a high level scan and there's just so much information here Erik, but maybe you could sort of summarize on some of that commentary. >> Yeah, we should definitely dig into each of those sectors a little more, but to summarize what we're seeing here was the real winners and losers are clear. Not everyone was prepared to have a work from home strategy. Not everyone was prepared to send their workers out. Their VPN wasn't, they didn't have enough bandwidth. So there was a real quick uptick in spending, but longer term we're starting to see that these changes will become more permanent. So the real winners and losers right now, we're going to see on the loser's side traditional networking. The MPLS networking is in a lot of trouble according to all the data and the commentary that we're seeing. It's expensive, it's difficult to ramp to up bandwidth as quickly as you need and it doesn't support remote. So we're seeing that lose out and the winners there are in the SD-WAN space. It's going to be impossible to ignore that going forward and some of our CIO and CISO panelists said that change will be permanent. Also, we're seeing, at the same time, what they were calling a "SaaS and Cloud". Now, we know these trends obviously were already happening but they're being exacerbated. They're happening even more quickly and more strong. And I don't see that changing any time soon. That, of course, is at the expense of network, I'm sorry, data centers. Whether it be your own or hosted. Which has huge ramifications on on-prem hardware. Even the firewall providers. So what we're seeing here is obviously we know things are going to be impacted by this situation. We didn't necessarily expect all of our community members and IT decision-makers to talk about them being possibly permanent. So that on a high level was something that was extremely interesting. And the last one that I would bring up is that as we make this shift towards working from home, towards remote access, you also have to align yourself with the security that can support that. And one of the things that we're seeing in our data side on ETR, is a widening bifurcation between the next-generation security vendors and the more traditional security or the legacy security players. That bifurcation just keeps getting wider and wider and this situation could be the last straw. >> So I want to follow up on a couple of those things. You're talking about sort of the network shift you know, towards the SD-WAN. What people have described to me is that they got a, you know, a hardened top. It's a hierarchical network. It's very well understood and it's safe, right? And now all of a sudden you got all those remote workers and so you've got to completely soft of rethink your whole network architecture. The other thing I want to drill into is your Cloud commentary. There's a comment that I saw, Erik, that really stood out. One of the folks said, "I would like to see the data centers "be completely deleted, if you will, or closed down." I think we're going to see, you know, a lot more of this obviously. Not only from the standpoint of, and you heard this a lot, the kind of paid by the drink. But just generally getting rid of all that sort of so-called non-differentiated heavy-lifting as we often hear about. >> That is a extreme comment. I don't think everyone feels that way. But, yes, the comment was made and we've heard the comment from other people. As you and I both know, the larger the enterprise the harder that is to go completely SaaS. But yeah, when a situation like this has and see the inflexibility of their on-prem infrastructure, yes it becomes something that really has to be addressed and it can become a permanent change. I was also shocked about that comment. That gentleman also stated that his executives outside of the ITs area, the CEO, the CFO, had never ever, ever wanted to discuss Cloud. They did not want to discuss work from home. They did not want to discuss remote access. He said that conversation has changed immediately and to the credit of the actual IT companies out there, the technology companies, they're doing everything they can with this opportunity to make that happen. >> Yeah, and so you're right the whole work from home conversation. To your point earlier, Erik, big chunks of COVID, the post-COVID world are going to remain permanent. Guys bring up the SaaS slide if you will. The SaaS commentary, "As-a-Service Saved our SaaS." "The wittiest quip award" going to the ETR. You know, but you had, what's very interesting to hear folks, in fact I think somebody even called out, "Hey," you know, "we expected Oracle to," you know, "be auditing us but they're actually being supportive "as is IBM." Salesforce was an interesting common, Erik. One of the folks said they would share accounts on-prem, but when they all do the work from home they had to actually buy some more. You also got Cisco with big props. Microsoft was called out. A lot of organizations actually allowing them to defer payments. So the SaaS vendors actually got very high marks didn't they? >> They really did and even I wrote that summary and it was difficult to write that about Oracle because we all know that they're infamous for auditing their own customers in 2009 right after we came out of financial crisis. They have notoriously been a-- I don't know if they found religion and they decided to be nice to their customers, but every-single person mentioned them as one of the vendors that was actually helping. That was very shocking. And we all know that when bad situations happen people become opportunistic. And right now it's really seeming that the SaaS vendors understand that they need a longterm relationship with these customers and they're being altruistic instead. Which is really nice. >> Yeah I think that anybody with a Cloud realizes that hey, we have an opportunity here that the lifetime value of that customer, whereas maybe in 2009 when Oracle didn't have a Cloud, they had to get people in a headlock to try to persevere their, you know, income statement. Let's go to the networking drill down guys, that next slide because Fortinet, some of the things we've been reporting on is the sort of divergence in evaluations between Fortinet and Palo Alto before this whole thing hit, Fortinet has done a really good job with its Cloud offerings. Palo Alto struggles a little bit with trying to figure out the sales compensation, is maybe a little bit behind. Although both companies got strong props and I've talked to a number of customers, Palo Alto is going to be in the mix. Fortinet, from a Cloud standpoint, seems to be doing quite well? Obviously networking, Cisco is the big gorilla there. But we also got call outs from guys like Trend Micro which was interesting, from some of the folks. So, your thoughts on this Erik. >> Yeah, I'll start on the networking side because this is something that I've really, I've dug into quite amount, in not only this panel, but a lot of interviews and it really seems as if as networking refresh starts to come up, and it's coming up with a lot of large enterprises, when your network refresh comes up people are going to do an RFP for SD-WAN. They are sick and tired of paying MPLS network vendors and they really want to look at something else. That was even prior to this situation. Now what we're hearing is this is a permanent change. I particularly had one person say, I wanted to find this quote real quickly if I can, but basically they basically saying that, "From a permanency perspective, the freedom from MTLS "will reduce our networks spend by over half "while more than doubling or tripling our bandwidth." You can't ignore that. You're going to save me money and triple my bandwidth, and hey by the way, my refresh is due. It's something that's coming and it's going to happen. And yes, you mentioned the few right? There's Viptela, there's Velocloud, there's some big players like Cisco. The Palo Alto just acquired CloudGenix in the midst of all of this. They just went and got an SD-WAN player themselves. And they just keep acquiring a portfolio to shift from their on-prem to next-generation. It's going to take some time, because 70% plus of their revenues is still on-prem hardware, but I do believe that their portfolio that they're creating is the way the world is moving. And that's just one comment on the traditional networking versus the next-generation SD-WAN. >> And the customers have indicated, you know it's not easy just to get off of their MPLS network. I mean it takes time, it's like slowly pulling of the bandaid. But, like many things, COVID-19 is sort of accelerating that. We haven't talked about digital transformation. That came up as a maybe more strategic initiative. But one that very clearly has legs. >> You know, David, it's very simple. You just said it. People, when things are going well and they're comfortable, they don't change. And that's the same for an enterpriser company. Hey, everything's great, our revenue's fine. Why would we do this? We'll worry about that next year. Then something like this happens and you realize wow, we've been dragging our feet. That digital transformation that we've been talking about, and we've been a little bit slow to accept, we need to accept it, we need to move now. And yes, it was another one of the major themes and it sounds silly for researchers like you and I because we know this is a theme. We know Clouded option is there, we know digital transformation is there. But, there are still a lot of people that haven't moved as quickly as they should and this is going to be that final catalyst to get them there, without a doubt. Quickly on your point of Fortinet, I was actually very impressed with the commentary that came from that because Fortinet is sometimes one of those names that you think of that maybe plays in a smaller pool or isn't as big as some of the 800 pound gorillas out there. But in other other interviews besides this I've heard the phrase coined of "Forti-everything". So through RND and through acquisition, Fortinet has really expanded the portfolio and right now is their time to shine because when you have smaller satellite, you know, offices and branches that you need to connect, they're really, really good at it. And you don't always want to call a Palo Alto and pay that price when you have smaller branch offices. And I actually, I was glad you brought up Fortinet because it's not a name that we get to herald that often and it was deserving from this panel. >> Yeah and, you know, companies that can secure gateways, secure endpoints, obviously going to have momentum. Zscaler came up, you know I think that, and I'll tell ya, looking at, I've done a couple of breaking analysis on security and Fortinet has been strong in two dimensions. You know ETR is, as our audience is I think getting to know. We really look at two key metrics. One is net score, which is a measure of spending momentum, and the other is market share, which is a measure of pervasiveness. And companies like Fortinet, in security, show up on both of those dimensions so it's notable. >> Yes, it certainly is, it is. And I'm glad you brought up Zscaler too. Very recently by client request, we did a very in-depth research on Zscaler versus Palo Alto Prisma Access and they were very interested. This was before all this happened, you know. Does Palo Alto have a chance of catching up, taking share from Zscaler. And I've had the pleasure, myself, personally hosting Jay the CEO of Zscaler at an event in New York City. And I have nothing but incredible respect for the company. But what we found out through this research is Zscaler, at the moment, their technology is still ahead, according to their answers. There's no doubt. However, there doesn't seem to be any real secret sauce that will stop Palo Alto from catching up. So we do believe the parody of feature set will shrink over time. And then it will come down to Palo Alto obviously has a wider and user base. Now, what's happening today might change that. Because if I had to make a decision right now, for my company on secure web gateway, I'm still probably going to go to Zscaler. It's the name. If I had to choose that in a year from now, Palo Alto might have had a better chance. So in this panel, as you brought up, Zscaler was mentioned numerous times as just the wave of the future. Along with CASB brokers right? Whether you're talking about a Netskoper or Forcepointer. All those people that also play in CASB space to secure your access. Zero trust is no longer a marketing-hype term. It is real and it is becoming more real by the week. >> And so, I want to kind of end on one of the other comments that really struck me because we're constantly talking about okay, do you go with a portfolio of a suite of services or do you go with best of breed? What about startups? Are startups more risky in a crisis like this? And one of your panelists, I just love this comment, he said, "One of things that I've always done," he said, "You always hear about the guy, "oh we're going to go to the gardener, we're going to "check out the magic water, we'll pick out three guys "in the upper right hand corner and test them out." He says, "One of the things I always like to do, "I'll pick two from the upper right "and I'll take one from the lower left." One of the emerging, text, "And I'll give em a shot." It won't win every time, but then he called out FireEye as one of the organizations that he found early that gave them competitive advantage. >> Right. >> Love that comment. >> It's a great comment. And honestly if you're in charge of procurement you'd be stupid not to do that. Not only just to see what the technology is, but now I can play you off the big guys because I have negotiating leverage and I can say oh, well I could always just take their contract. So it's silly not to do it from a business perspective. But from technology perspective, what we kept hearing from these people with the smaller vendors. My partner Peter Steube, my colleague and I, we did the host together, we asked this question really believing that the financial insecurity of the moment and the times would make smaller vendors not viable. We heard the exact opposite. What our panelists said was, "No, I'd be happy "to work with a smaller vendor right now "because they're going to give me pricing flexibility, "they're going to work with me right now. "I don't need to pay them upfront "because we're seeing a permanent shift from CapEx to OpEX, "and the smaller vendors are willing to work with me and I can pay them later." So we were actually surprised to hear that and glad to hear it because, to connect to your other point, the other person who was talking about security and the platform approach versus best of breed, he said "Listen, platform approaches you're already "with the vendor, you can bundle a little bit. "But the problem is, if you're just going to acquire "a new technology every time there's a new threat, "the bad guys are just going to switch the threat. "And you can't acquire indefinitely. "So therefore, best of breed with security "will always beat platform." And that's kind of a message to Palo Alto and Cisco, in my opinion, because they seem to be the ones fighting that out. Even Microsoft now, trying to say they're a platform approach in security. >> Well and this says to me the security business, as we predicted, is going to stay fragmented because you're still going to get that best of breed. You know, just like Cloud is going to be fragmented and it's, you know, multiple vendors. Ever since I've been in this business people are trying to consolidate the number of vendors, but technology moves so quickly, it gives competitive advantage. Erik, awesome! Thank you so much for joining us. I'm looking forward to next Tuesday with the next vendor and love to have you back and talk about it anytime. You're a great guest, thanks so much. >> Certainly, I'll do my best to get a better AV connection the next time guys, I apologize for that. But it was great talking to you tonight. >> Hey we're all learning, you know so, thank you everybody for watching, this is Dave Vellante for theCUBE and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)