>> From The Cube Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data driven insights from The Cube at ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> The reverse momentum in tech stocks caused by rising interest rates, less attractive discounted cash flow models, and more tepid forward guidance, can be easily measured by public market valuations. And while there's lots of discussion about the impact on private companies and cash runway and 409A valuations, measuring the performance of non-public companies isn't as easy. IPOs have dried up and public statements by private companies, of course, they accentuate the good and they kind of hide the bad. Real data, unless you're an insider, is hard to find. Hello and welcome to this week's "Wikibon Cube Insights" powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis", we unlock some of the secrets that non-public, emerging tech companies may or may not be sharing. And we do this by introducing you to a capability from ETR that we've not exposed you to over the past couple of years, it's called the Emerging Technologies Survey, and it is packed with sentiment data and performance data based on surveys of more than a thousand CIOs and IT buyers covering more than 400 companies. And we've invited back our colleague, Erik Bradley of ETR to help explain the survey and the data that we're going to cover today. Erik, this survey is something that I've not personally spent much time on, but I'm blown away at the data. It's really unique and detailed. First of all, welcome. Good to see you again. >> Great to see you too, Dave, and I'm really happy to be talking about the ETS or the Emerging Technology Survey. Even our own clients of constituents probably don't spend as much time in here as they should. >> Yeah, because there's so much in the mainstream, but let's pull up a slide to bring out the survey composition. Tell us about the study. How often do you run it? What's the background and the methodology? >> Yeah, you were just spot on the way you were talking about the private tech companies out there. So what we did is we decided to take all the vendors that we track that are not yet public and move 'em over to the ETS. And there isn't a lot of information out there. If you're not in Silicon (indistinct), you're not going to get this stuff. So PitchBook and Tech Crunch are two out there that gives some data on these guys. But what we really wanted to do was go out to our community. We have 6,000, ITDMs in our community. We wanted to ask them, "Are you aware of these companies? And if so, are you allocating any resources to them? Are you planning to evaluate them," and really just kind of figure out what we can do. So this particular survey, as you can see, 1000 plus responses, over 450 vendors that we track. And essentially what we're trying to do here is talk about your evaluation and awareness of these companies and also your utilization. And also if you're not utilizing 'em, then we can also figure out your sales conversion or churn. So this is interesting, not only for the ITDMs themselves to figure out what their peers are evaluating and what they should put in POCs against the big guys when contracts come up. But it's also really interesting for the tech vendors themselves to see how they're performing. >> And you can see 2/3 of the respondents are director level of above. You got 28% is C-suite. There is of course a North America bias, 70, 75% is North America. But these smaller companies, you know, that's when they start doing business. So, okay. We're going to do a couple of things here today. First, we're going to give you the big picture across the sectors that ETR covers within the ETS survey. And then we're going to look at the high and low sentiment for the larger private companies. And then we're going to do the same for the smaller private companies, the ones that don't have as much mindshare. And then I'm going to put those two groups together and we're going to look at two dimensions, actually three dimensions, which companies are being evaluated the most. Second, companies are getting the most usage and adoption of their offerings. And then third, which companies are seeing the highest churn rates, which of course is a silent killer of companies. And then finally, we're going to look at the sentiment and mindshare for two key areas that we like to cover often here on "Breaking Analysis", security and data. And data comprises database, including data warehousing, and then big data analytics is the second part of data. And then machine learning and AI is the third section within data that we're going to look at. Now, one other thing before we get into it, ETR very often will include open source offerings in the mix, even though they're not companies like TensorFlow or Kubernetes, for example. And we'll call that out during this discussion. The reason this is done is for context, because everyone is using open source. It is the heart of innovation and many business models are super glued to an open source offering, like take MariaDB, for example. There's the foundation and then there's with the open source code and then there, of course, the company that sells services around the offering. Okay, so let's first look at the highest and lowest sentiment among these private firms, the ones that have the highest mindshare. So they're naturally going to be somewhat larger. And we do this on two dimensions, sentiment on the vertical axis and mindshare on the horizontal axis and note the open source tool, see Kubernetes, Postgres, Kafka, TensorFlow, Jenkins, Grafana, et cetera. So Erik, please explain what we're looking at here, how it's derived and what the data tells us. >> Certainly, so there is a lot here, so we're going to break it down first of all by explaining just what mindshare and net sentiment is. You explain the axis. We have so many evaluation metrics, but we need to aggregate them into one so that way we can rank against each other. Net sentiment is really the aggregation of all the positive and subtracting out the negative. So the net sentiment is a very quick way of looking at where these companies stand versus their peers in their sectors and sub sectors. Mindshare is basically the awareness of them, which is good for very early stage companies. And you'll see some names on here that are obviously been around for a very long time. And they're clearly be the bigger on the axis on the outside. Kubernetes, for instance, as you mentioned, is open source. This de facto standard for all container orchestration, and it should be that far up into the right, because that's what everyone's using. In fact, the open source leaders are so prevalent in the emerging technology survey that we break them out later in our analysis, 'cause it's really not fair to include them and compare them to the actual companies that are providing the support and the security around that open source technology. But no survey, no analysis, no research would be complete without including these open source tech. So what we're looking at here, if I can just get away from the open source names, we see other things like Databricks and OneTrust . They're repeating as top net sentiment performers here. And then also the design vendors. People don't spend a lot of time on 'em, but Miro and Figma. This is their third survey in a row where they're just dominating that sentiment overall. And Adobe should probably take note of that because they're really coming after them. But Databricks, we all know probably would've been a public company by now if the market hadn't turned, but you can see just how dominant they are in a survey of nothing but private companies. And we'll see that again when we talk about the database later. >> And I'll just add, so you see automation anywhere on there, the big UiPath competitor company that was not able to get to the public markets. They've been trying. Snyk, Peter McKay's company, they've raised a bunch of money, big security player. They're doing some really interesting things in developer security, helping developers secure the data flow, H2O.ai, Dataiku AI company. We saw them at the Snowflake Summit. Redis Labs, Netskope and security. So a lot of names that we know that ultimately we think are probably going to be hitting the public market. Okay, here's the same view for private companies with less mindshare, Erik. Take us through this one. >> On the previous slide too real quickly, I wanted to pull that security scorecard and we'll get back into it. But this is a newcomer, that I couldn't believe how strong their data was, but we'll bring that up in a second. Now, when we go to the ones of lower mindshare, it's interesting to talk about open source, right? Kubernetes was all the way on the top right. Everyone uses containers. Here we see Istio up there. Not everyone is using service mesh as much. And that's why Istio is in the smaller breakout. But still when you talk about net sentiment, it's about the leader, it's the highest one there is. So really interesting to point out. Then we see other names like Collibra in the data side really performing well. And again, as always security, very well represented here. We have Aqua, Wiz, Armis, which is a standout in this survey this time around. They do IoT security. I hadn't even heard of them until I started digging into the data here. And I couldn't believe how well they were doing. And then of course you have AnyScale, which is doing a second best in this and the best name in the survey Hugging Face, which is a machine learning AI tool. Also doing really well on a net sentiment, but they're not as far along on that access of mindshare just yet. So these are again, emerging companies that might not be as well represented in the enterprise as they will be in a couple of years. >> Hugging Face sounds like something you do with your two year old. Like you said, you see high performers, AnyScale do machine learning and you mentioned them. They came out of Berkeley. Collibra Governance, InfluxData is on there. InfluxDB's a time series database. And yeah, of course, Alex, if you bring that back up, you get a big group of red dots, right? That's the bad zone, I guess, which Sisense does vis, Yellowbrick Data is a NPP database. How should we interpret the red dots, Erik? I mean, is it necessarily a bad thing? Could it be misinterpreted? What's your take on that? >> Sure, well, let me just explain the definition of it first from a data science perspective, right? We're a data company first. So the gray dots that you're seeing that aren't named, that's the mean that's the average. So in order for you to be on this chart, you have to be at least one standard deviation above or below that average. So that gray is where we're saying, "Hey, this is where the lump of average comes in. This is where everyone normally stands." So you either have to be an outperformer or an underperformer to even show up in this analysis. So by definition, yes, the red dots are bad. You're at least one standard deviation below the average of your peers. It's not where you want to be. And if you're on the lower left, not only are you not performing well from a utilization or an actual usage rate, but people don't even know who you are. So that's a problem, obviously. And the VCs and the PEs out there that are backing these companies, they're the ones who mostly are interested in this data. >> Yeah. Oh, that's great explanation. Thank you for that. No, nice benchmarking there and yeah, you don't want to be in the red. All right, let's get into the next segment here. Here going to look at evaluation rates, adoption and the all important churn. First new evaluations. Let's bring up that slide. And Erik, take us through this. >> So essentially I just want to explain what evaluation means is that people will cite that they either plan to evaluate the company or they're currently evaluating. So that means we're aware of 'em and we are choosing to do a POC of them. And then we'll see later how that turns into utilization, which is what a company wants to see, awareness, evaluation, and then actually utilizing them. That's sort of the life cycle for these emerging companies. So what we're seeing here, again, with very high evaluation rates. H2O, we mentioned. SecurityScorecard jumped up again. Chargebee, Snyk, Salt Security, Armis. A lot of security names are up here, Aqua, Netskope, which God has been around forever. I still can't believe it's in an Emerging Technology Survey But so many of these names fall in data and security again, which is why we decided to pick those out Dave. And on the lower side, Vena, Acton, those unfortunately took the dubious award of the lowest evaluations in our survey, but I prefer to focus on the positive. So SecurityScorecard, again, real standout in this one, they're in a security assessment space, basically. They'll come in and assess for you how your security hygiene is. And it's an area of a real interest right now amongst our ITDM community. >> Yeah, I mean, I think those, and then Arctic Wolf is up there too. They're doing managed services. You had mentioned Netskope. Yeah, okay. All right, let's look at now adoption. These are the companies whose offerings are being used the most and are above that standard deviation in the green. Take us through this, Erik. >> Sure, yet again, what we're looking at is, okay, we went from awareness, we went to evaluation. Now it's about utilization, which means a survey respondent's going to state "Yes, we evaluated and we plan to utilize it" or "It's already in our enterprise and we're actually allocating further resources to it." Not surprising, again, a lot of open source, the reason why, it's free. So it's really easy to grow your utilization on something that's free. But as you and I both know, as Red Hat proved, there's a lot of money to be made once the open source is adopted, right? You need the governance, you need the security, you need the support wrapped around it. So here we're seeing Kubernetes, Postgres, Apache Kafka, Jenkins, Grafana. These are all open source based names. But if we're looking at names that are non open source, we're going to see Databricks, Automation Anywhere, Rubrik all have the highest mindshare. So these are the names, not surprisingly, all names that probably should have been public by now. Everyone's expecting an IPO imminently. These are the names that have the highest mindshare. If we talk about the highest utilization rates, again, Miro and Figma pop up, and I know they're not household names, but they are just dominant in this survey. These are applications that are meant for design software and, again, they're going after an Autodesk or a CAD or Adobe type of thing. It is just dominant how high the utilization rates are here, which again is something Adobe should be paying attention to. And then you'll see a little bit lower, but also interesting, we see Collibra again, we see Hugging Face again. And these are names that are obviously in the data governance, ML, AI side. So we're seeing a ton of data, a ton of security and Rubrik was interesting in this one, too, high utilization and high mindshare. We know how pervasive they are in the enterprise already. >> Erik, Alex, keep that up for a second, if you would. So yeah, you mentioned Rubrik. Cohesity's not on there. They're sort of the big one. We're going to talk about them in a moment. Puppet is interesting to me because you remember the early days of that sort of space, you had Puppet and Chef and then you had Ansible. Red Hat bought Ansible and then Ansible really took off. So it's interesting to see Puppet on there as well. Okay. So now let's look at the churn because this one is where you don't want to be. It's, of course, all red 'cause churn is bad. Take us through this, Erik. >> Yeah, definitely don't want to be here and I don't love to dwell on the negative. So we won't spend as much time. But to your point, there's one thing I want to point out that think it's important. So you see Rubrik in the same spot, but Rubrik has so many citations in our survey that it actually would make sense that they're both being high utilization and churn just because they're so well represented. They have such a high overall representation in our survey. And the reason I call that out is Cohesity. Cohesity has an extremely high churn rate here about 17% and unlike Rubrik, they were not on the utilization side. So Rubrik is seeing both, Cohesity is not. It's not being utilized, but it's seeing a high churn. So that's the way you can look at this data and say, "Hm." Same thing with Puppet. You noticed that it was on the other slide. It's also on this one. So basically what it means is a lot of people are giving Puppet a shot, but it's starting to churn, which means it's not as sticky as we would like. One that was surprising on here for me was Tanium. It's kind of jumbled in there. It's hard to see in the middle, but Tanium, I was very surprised to see as high of a churn because what I do hear from our end user community is that people that use it, like it. It really kind of spreads into not only vulnerability management, but also that endpoint detection and response side. So I was surprised by that one, mostly to see Tanium in here. Mural, again, was another one of those application design softwares that's seeing a very high churn as well. >> So you're saying if you're in both... Alex, bring that back up if you would. So if you're in both like MariaDB is for example, I think, yeah, they're in both. They're both green in the previous one and red here, that's not as bad. You mentioned Rubrik is going to be in both. Cohesity is a bit of a concern. Cohesity just brought on Sanjay Poonen. So this could be a go to market issue, right? I mean, 'cause Cohesity has got a great product and they got really happy customers. So they're just maybe having to figure out, okay, what's the right ideal customer profile and Sanjay Poonen, I guarantee, is going to have that company cranking. I mean they had been doing very well on the surveys and had fallen off of a bit. The other interesting things wondering the previous survey I saw Cvent, which is an event platform. My only reason I pay attention to that is 'cause we actually have an event platform. We don't sell it separately. We bundle it as part of our offerings. And you see Hopin on here. Hopin raised a billion dollars during the pandemic. And we were like, "Wow, that's going to blow up." And so you see Hopin on the churn and you didn't see 'em in the previous chart, but that's sort of interesting. Like you said, let's not kind of dwell on the negative, but you really don't. You know, churn is a real big concern. Okay, now we're going to drill down into two sectors, security and data. Where data comprises three areas, database and data warehousing, machine learning and AI and big data analytics. So first let's take a look at the security sector. Now this is interesting because not only is it a sector drill down, but also gives an indicator of how much money the firm has raised, which is the size of that bubble. And to tell us if a company is punching above its weight and efficiently using its venture capital. Erik, take us through this slide. Explain the dots, the size of the dots. Set this up please. >> Yeah. So again, the axis is still the same, net sentiment and mindshare, but what we've done this time is we've taken publicly available information on how much capital company is raised and that'll be the size of the circle you see around the name. And then whether it's green or red is basically saying relative to the amount of money they've raised, how are they doing in our data? So when you see a Netskope, which has been around forever, raised a lot of money, that's why you're going to see them more leading towards red, 'cause it's just been around forever and kind of would expect it. Versus a name like SecurityScorecard, which is only raised a little bit of money and it's actually performing just as well, if not better than a name, like a Netskope. OneTrust doing absolutely incredible right now. BeyondTrust. We've seen the issues with Okta, right. So those are two names that play in that space that obviously are probably getting some looks about what's going on right now. Wiz, we've all heard about right? So raised a ton of money. It's doing well on net sentiment, but the mindshare isn't as well as you'd want, which is why you're going to see a little bit of that red versus a name like Aqua, which is doing container and application security. And hasn't raised as much money, but is really neck and neck with a name like Wiz. So that is why on a relative basis, you'll see that more green. As we all know, information security is never going away. But as we'll get to later in the program, Dave, I'm not sure in this current market environment, if people are as willing to do POCs and switch away from their security provider, right. There's a little bit of tepidness out there, a little trepidation. So right now we're seeing overall a slight pause, a slight cooling in overall evaluations on the security side versus historical levels a year ago. >> Now let's stay on here for a second. So a couple things I want to point out. So it's interesting. Now Snyk has raised over, I think $800 million but you can see them, they're high on the vertical and the horizontal, but now compare that to Lacework. It's hard to see, but they're kind of buried in the middle there. That's the biggest dot in this whole thing. I think I'm interpreting this correctly. They've raised over a billion dollars. It's a Mike Speiser company. He was the founding investor in Snowflake. So people watch that very closely, but that's an example of where they're not punching above their weight. They recently had a layoff and they got to fine tune things, but I'm still confident they they're going to do well. 'Cause they're approaching security as a data problem, which is probably people having trouble getting their arms around that. And then again, I see Arctic Wolf. They're not red, they're not green, but they've raised fair amount of money, but it's showing up to the right and decent level there. And a couple of the other ones that you mentioned, Netskope. Yeah, they've raised a lot of money, but they're actually performing where you want. What you don't want is where Lacework is, right. They've got some work to do to really take advantage of the money that they raised last November and prior to that. >> Yeah, if you're seeing that more neutral color, like you're calling out with an Arctic Wolf, like that means relative to their peers, this is where they should be. It's when you're seeing that red on a Lacework where we all know, wow, you raised a ton of money and your mindshare isn't where it should be. Your net sentiment is not where it should be comparatively. And then you see these great standouts, like Salt Security and SecurityScorecard and Abnormal. You know they haven't raised that much money yet, but their net sentiment's higher and their mindshare's doing well. So those basically in a nutshell, if you're a PE or a VC and you see a small green circle, then you're doing well, then it means you made a good investment. >> Some of these guys, I don't know, but you see these small green circles. Those are the ones you want to start digging into and maybe help them catch a wave. Okay, let's get into the data discussion. And again, three areas, database slash data warehousing, big data analytics and ML AI. First, we're going to look at the database sector. So Alex, thank you for bringing that up. Alright, take us through this, Erik. Actually, let me just say Postgres SQL. I got to ask you about this. It shows some funding, but that actually could be a mix of EDB, the company that commercializes Postgres and Postgres the open source database, which is a transaction system and kind of an open source Oracle. You see MariaDB is a database, but open source database. But the companies they've raised over $200 million and they filed an S-4. So Erik looks like this might be a little bit of mashup of companies and open source products. Help us understand this. >> Yeah, it's tough when you start dealing with the open source side and I'll be honest with you, there is a little bit of a mashup here. There are certain names here that are a hundred percent for profit companies. And then there are others that are obviously open source based like Redis is open source, but Redis Labs is the one trying to monetize the support around it. So you're a hundred percent accurate on this slide. I think one of the things here that's important to note though, is just how important open source is to data. If you're going to be going to any of these areas, it's going to be open source based to begin with. And Neo4j is one I want to call out here. It's not one everyone's familiar with, but it's basically geographical charting database, which is a name that we're seeing on a net sentiment side actually really, really high. When you think about it's the third overall net sentiment for a niche database play. It's not as big on the mindshare 'cause it's use cases aren't as often, but third biggest play on net sentiment. I found really interesting on this slide. >> And again, so MariaDB, as I said, they filed an S-4 I think $50 million in revenue, that might even be ARR. So they're not huge, but they're getting there. And by the way, MariaDB, if you don't know, was the company that was formed the day that Oracle bought Sun in which they got MySQL and MariaDB has done a really good job of replacing a lot of MySQL instances. Oracle has responded with MySQL HeatWave, which was kind of the Oracle version of MySQL. So there's some interesting battles going on there. If you think about the LAMP stack, the M in the LAMP stack was MySQL. And so now it's all MariaDB replacing that MySQL for a large part. And then you see again, the red, you know, you got to have some concerns about there. Aerospike's been around for a long time. SingleStore changed their name a couple years ago, last year. Yellowbrick Data, Fire Bolt was kind of going after Snowflake for a while, but yeah, you want to get out of that red zone. So they got some work to do. >> And Dave, real quick for the people that aren't aware, I just want to let them know that we can cut this data with the public company data as well. So we can cross over this with that because some of these names are competing with the larger public company names as well. So we can go ahead and cross reference like a MariaDB with a Mongo, for instance, or of something of that nature. So it's not in this slide, but at another point we can certainly explain on a relative basis how these private names are doing compared to the other ones as well. >> All right, let's take a quick look at analytics. Alex, bring that up if you would. Go ahead, Erik. >> Yeah, I mean, essentially here, I can't see it on my screen, my apologies. I just kind of went to blank on that. So gimme one second to catch up. >> So I could set it up while you're doing that. You got Grafana up and to the right. I mean, this is huge right. >> Got it thank you. I lost my screen there for a second. Yep. Again, open source name Grafana, absolutely up and to the right. But as we know, Grafana Labs is actually picking up a lot of speed based on Grafana, of course. And I think we might actually hear some noise from them coming this year. The names that are actually a little bit more disappointing than I want to call out are names like ThoughtSpot. It's been around forever. Their mindshare of course is second best here but based on the amount of time they've been around and the amount of money they've raised, it's not actually outperforming the way it should be. We're seeing Moogsoft obviously make some waves. That's very high net sentiment for that company. It's, you know, what, third, fourth position overall in this entire area, Another name like Fivetran, Matillion is doing well. Fivetran, even though it's got a high net sentiment, again, it's raised so much money that we would've expected a little bit more at this point. I know you know this space extremely well, but basically what we're looking at here and to the bottom left, you're going to see some names with a lot of red, large circles that really just aren't performing that well. InfluxData, however, second highest net sentiment. And it's really pretty early on in this stage and the feedback we're getting on this name is the use cases are great, the efficacy's great. And I think it's one to watch out for. >> InfluxData, time series database. The other interesting things I just noticed here, you got Tamer on here, which is that little small green. Those are the ones we were saying before, look for those guys. They might be some of the interesting companies out there and then observe Jeremy Burton's company. They do observability on top of Snowflake, not green, but kind of in that gray. So that's kind of cool. Monte Carlo is another one, they're sort of slightly green. They are doing some really interesting things in data and data mesh. So yeah, okay. So I can spend all day on this stuff, Erik, phenomenal data. I got to get back and really dig in. Let's end with machine learning and AI. Now this chart it's similar in its dimensions, of course, except for the money raised. We're not showing that size of the bubble, but AI is so hot. We wanted to cover that here, Erik, explain this please. Why TensorFlow is highlighted and walk us through this chart. >> Yeah, it's funny yet again, right? Another open source name, TensorFlow being up there. And I just want to explain, we do break out machine learning, AI is its own sector. A lot of this of course really is intertwined with the data side, but it is on its own area. And one of the things I think that's most important here to break out is Databricks. We started to cover Databricks in machine learning, AI. That company has grown into much, much more than that. So I do want to state to you Dave, and also the audience out there that moving forward, we're going to be moving Databricks out of only the MA/AI into other sectors. So we can kind of value them against their peers a little bit better. But in this instance, you could just see how dominant they are in this area. And one thing that's not here, but I do want to point out is that we have the ability to break this down by industry vertical, organization size. And when I break this down into Fortune 500 and Fortune 1000, both Databricks and Tensorflow are even better than you see here. So it's quite interesting to see that the names that are succeeding are also succeeding with the largest organizations in the world. And as we know, large organizations means large budgets. So this is one area that I just thought was really interesting to point out that as we break it down, the data by vertical, these two names still are the outstanding players. >> I just also want to call it H2O.ai. They're getting a lot of buzz in the marketplace and I'm seeing them a lot more. Anaconda, another one. Dataiku consistently popping up. DataRobot is also interesting because all the kerfuffle that's going on there. The Cube guy, Cube alum, Chris Lynch stepped down as executive chairman. All this stuff came out about how the executives were taking money off the table and didn't allow the employees to participate in that money raising deal. So that's pissed a lot of people off. And so they're now going through some kind of uncomfortable things, which is unfortunate because DataRobot, I noticed, we haven't covered them that much in "Breaking Analysis", but I've noticed them oftentimes, Erik, in the surveys doing really well. So you would think that company has a lot of potential. But yeah, it's an important space that we're going to continue to watch. Let me ask you Erik, can you contextualize this from a time series standpoint? I mean, how is this changed over time? >> Yeah, again, not show here, but in the data. I'm sorry, go ahead. >> No, I'm sorry. What I meant, I should have interjected. In other words, you would think in a downturn that these emerging companies would be less interesting to buyers 'cause they're more risky. What have you seen? >> Yeah, and it was interesting before we went live, you and I were having this conversation about "Is the downturn stopping people from evaluating these private companies or not," right. In a larger sense, that's really what we're doing here. How are these private companies doing when it comes down to the actual practitioners? The people with the budget, the people with the decision making. And so what I did is, we have historical data as you know, I went back to the Emerging Technology Survey we did in November of 21, right at the crest right before the market started to really fall and everything kind of started to fall apart there. And what I noticed is on the security side, very much so, we're seeing less evaluations than we were in November 21. So I broke it down. On cloud security, net sentiment went from 21% to 16% from November '21. That's a pretty big drop. And again, that sentiment is our one aggregate metric for overall positivity, meaning utilization and actual evaluation of the name. Again in database, we saw it drop a little bit from 19% to 13%. However, in analytics we actually saw it stay steady. So it's pretty interesting that yes, cloud security and security in general is always going to be important. But right now we're seeing less overall net sentiment in that space. But within analytics, we're seeing steady with growing mindshare. And also to your point earlier in machine learning, AI, we're seeing steady net sentiment and mindshare has grown a whopping 25% to 30%. So despite the downturn, we're seeing more awareness of these companies in analytics and machine learning and a steady, actual utilization of them. I can't say the same in security and database. They're actually shrinking a little bit since the end of last year. >> You know it's interesting, we were on a round table, Erik does these round tables with CISOs and CIOs, and I remember one time you had asked the question, "How do you think about some of these emerging tech companies?" And one of the executives said, "I always include somebody in the bottom left of the Gartner Magic Quadrant in my RFPs. I think he said, "That's how I found," I don't know, it was Zscaler or something like that years before anybody ever knew of them "Because they're going to help me get to the next level." So it's interesting to see Erik in these sectors, how they're holding up in many cases. >> Yeah. It's a very important part for the actual IT practitioners themselves. There's always contracts coming up and you always have to worry about your next round of negotiations. And that's one of the roles these guys play. You have to do a POC when contracts come up, but it's also their job to stay on top of the new technology. You can't fall behind. Like everyone's a software company. Now everyone's a tech company, no matter what you're doing. So these guys have to stay in on top of it. And that's what this ETS can do. You can go in here and look and say, "All right, I'm going to evaluate their technology," and it could be twofold. It might be that you're ready to upgrade your technology and they're actually pushing the envelope or it simply might be I'm using them as a negotiation ploy. So when I go back to the big guy who I have full intentions of writing that contract to, at least I have some negotiation leverage. >> Erik, we got to leave it there. I could spend all day. I'm going to definitely dig into this on my own time. Thank you for introducing this, really appreciate your time today. >> I always enjoy it, Dave and I hope everyone out there has a great holiday weekend. Enjoy the rest of the summer. And, you know, I love to talk data. So anytime you want, just point the camera on me and I'll start talking data. >> You got it. I also want to thank the team at ETR, not only Erik, but Darren Bramen who's a data scientist, really helped prepare this data, the entire team over at ETR. I cannot tell you how much additional data there is. We are just scratching the surface in this "Breaking Analysis". So great job guys. I want to thank Alex Myerson. Who's on production and he manages the podcast. Ken Shifman as well, who's just coming back from VMware Explore. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight help get the word out on social media and in our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE. Does some great editing for us. Thank you. All of you guys. Remember these episodes, they're all available as podcast, wherever you listen. All you got to do is just search "Breaking Analysis" podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me to get in touch david.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me at dvellante or comment on my LinkedIn posts and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley and The Cube Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. Be well. And we'll see you next time on "Breaking Analysis". (upbeat music)

(upbeat music) >> Welcome to this CUBE Power Panel where we're going to talk about application modernization, also success templates, and take a look at some new survey data to see how CIOs are thinking about digital transformation, as we get deeper into the post isolation economy. And with me are three familiar VIP guests to CUBE audiences. Tony Bear, the principal at DB InSight, Doug Henschen, VP and principal analyst at Constellation Research and Sanjeev Mohan principal at SanjMo. Guys, good to see you again, welcome back. >> Thank you. >> Glad to be here. >> Thanks for having us. >> Glad to be here. >> All right, Doug. Let's get started with you. You know, this recent survey, which was commissioned by Couchbase, 650 CIOs and CTOs, and IT practitioners. So obviously very IT heavy. They responded to the following question, "In response to the pandemic, my organization accelerated our application modernization strategy and of course, an overwhelming majority, 94% agreed or strongly agreed." So I'm sure, Doug, that you're not shocked by that, but in the same survey, modernizing existing technologies was second only behind cyber security is the top investment priority this year. Doug, bring us into your world and tell us the trends that you're seeing with the clients and customers you work with in their modernization initiatives. >> Well, the survey, of course, is spot on. You know, any Constellation Research analyst, any systems integrator will tell you that we saw more transformation work in the last two years than in the prior six to eight years. A lot of it was forced, you know, a lot of movement to the cloud, a lot of process improvement, a lot of automation work, but transformational is aspirational and not every company can be a leader. You know, at Constellation, we focus our research on those market leaders and that's only, you know, the top 5% of companies that are really innovating, that are really disrupting their markets and we try to share that with companies that want to be fast followers, that these are the next 20 to 25% of companies that don't want to get left behind, but don't want to hit some of the same roadblocks and you know, pioneering pitfalls that the real leaders are encountering when they're harnessing new technologies. So the rest of the companies, you know, the cautious adopters, the laggards, many of them fall by the wayside, that's certainly what we saw during the pandemic. Who are these leaders? You know, the old saw examples that people saw at the Amazons, the Teslas, the Airbnbs, the Ubers and Lyfts, but new examples are emerging every year. And as a consumer, you immediately recognize these transformed experiences. One of my favorite examples from the pandemic is Rocket Mortgage. No disclaimer required, I don't own stock and you're not client, but when I wanted to take advantage of those record low mortgage interest rates, I called my current bank and some, you know, stall word, very established conventional banks, I'm talking to you Bank of America, City Bank, and they were taking days and weeks to get back to me. Rocket Mortgage had the locked in commitment that day, a very proactive, consistent communications across web, mobile, email, all customer touchpoints. I closed in a matter of weeks an entirely digital seamless process. This is back in the gloves and masks days and the loan officer came parked in our driveway, wiped down an iPad, handed us that iPad, we signed all those documents digitally, completely electronic workflow. The only wet signatures required were those demanded by the state. So it's easy to spot these transformed experiences. You know, Rocket had most of that in place before the pandemic, and that's why they captured 8% of the national mortgage market by 2020 and they're on track to hit 10% here in 2022. >> Yeah, those are great examples. I mean, I'm not a shareholder either, but I am a customer. I even went through the same thing in the pandemic. It was all done in digital it was a piece of cake and I happened to have to do another one with a different firm and stuck with that firm for a variety of reasons and it was night and day. So to your point, it was a forced merge to digital. If you were there beforehand, you had real advantage, it could accelerate your lead during the pandemic. Okay, now Tony bear. Mr. Bear, I understand you're skeptical about all this buzz around digital transformation. So in that same survey, the data shows that the majority of respondents said that their digital initiatives were largely reactive to outside forces, the pandemic compliance changes, et cetera. But at the same time, they indicated that the results while somewhat mixed were generally positive. So why are you skeptical? >> The reason being, and by the way, I have nothing against application modernization. The problem... I think the problem I ever said, it often gets conflated with digital transformation and digital transformation itself has become such a buzzword and so overused that it's really hard, if not impossible to pin down (coughs) what digital transformation actually means. And very often what you'll hear from, let's say a C level, you know, (mumbles) we want to run like Google regardless of whether or not that goal is realistic you know, for that organization (coughs). The thing is that we've been using, you know, businesses have been using digital data since the days of the mainframe, since the... Sorry that data has been digital. What really has changed though, is just the degree of how businesses interact with their customers, their partners, with the whole rest of the ecosystem and how their business... And how in many cases you take look at the auto industry that the nature of the business, you know, is changing. So there is real change of foot, the question is I think we need to get more specific in our goals. And when you look at it, if we can boil it down to a couple, maybe, you know, boil it down like really over simplistically, it's really all about connectedness. No, I'm not saying connectivity 'cause that's more of a physical thing, but connectedness. Being connected to your customer, being connected to your supplier, being connected to the, you know, to the whole landscape, that you operate in. And of course today we have many more channels with which we operate, you know, with customers. And in fact also if you take a look at what's happening in the automotive industry, for instance, I was just reading an interview with Bill Ford, you know, their... Ford is now rapidly ramping up their electric, you know, their electric vehicle strategy. And what they realize is it's not just a change of technology, you know, it is a change in their business, it's a change in terms of the relationship they have with their customer. Their customers have traditionally been automotive dealers who... And the automotive dealers have, you know, traditionally and in many cases by state law now have been the ones who own the relationship with the end customer. But when you go to an electric vehicle, the product becomes a lot more of a software product. And in turn, that means that Ford would have much more direct interaction with its end customers. So that's really what it's all about. It's about, you know, connectedness, it's also about the ability to act, you know, we can say agility, it's about ability not just to react, but to anticipate and act. And so... And of course with all the proliferation, you know, the explosion of data sources and connectivity out there and the cloud, which allows much more, you know, access to compute, it changes the whole nature of the ball game. The fact is that we have to avoid being overwhelmed by this and make our goals more, I guess, tangible, more strictly defined. >> Yeah, now... You know, great points there. And I want to just bring in some survey data, again, two thirds of the respondents said their digital strategies were set by IT and only 26% by the C-suite, 8% by the line of business. Now, this was largely a survey of CIOs and CTOs, but, wow, doesn't seem like the right mix. It's a Doug's point about, you know, leaders in lagers. My guess is that Rocket Mortgage, their digital strategy was led by the chief digital officer potentially. But at the same time, you would think, Tony, that application modernization is a prerequisite for digital transformation. But I want to go to Sanjeev in this war in the survey. And respondents said that on average, they want 58% of their IT spend to be in the public cloud three years down the road. Now, again, this is CIOs and CTOs, but (mumbles), but that's a big number. And there was no ambiguity because the question wasn't worded as cloud, it was worded as public cloud. So Sanjeev, what do you make of that? What's your feeling on cloud as flexible architecture? What does this all mean to you? >> Dave, 58% of IT spend in the cloud is a huge change from today. Today, most estimates, peg cloud IT spend to be somewhere around five to 15%. So what this number tells us is that the cloud journey is still in its early days, so we should buckle up. We ain't seen nothing yet, but let me add some color to this. CIOs and CTOs maybe ramping up their cloud deployment, but they still have a lot of problems to solve. I can tell you from my previous experience, for example, when I was in Gartner, I used to talk to a lot of customers who were in a rush to move into the cloud. So if we were to plot, let's say a maturity model, typically a maturity model in any discipline in IT would have something like crawl, walk, run. So what I was noticing was that these organizations were jumping straight to run because in the pandemic, they were under the gun to quickly deploy into the cloud. So now they're kind of coming back down to, you know, to crawl, walk, run. So basically they did what they had to do under the circumstances, but now they're starting to resolve some of the very, very important issues. For example, security, data privacy, governance, observability, these are all very big ticket items. Another huge problem that nav we are noticing more than we've ever seen, other rising costs. Cloud makes it so easy to onboard new use cases, but it leads to all kinds of unexpected increase in spikes in your operating expenses. So what we are seeing is that organizations are now getting smarter about where the workloads should be deployed. And sometimes it may be in more than one cloud. Multi-cloud is no longer an aspirational thing. So that is a huge trend that we are seeing and that's why you see there's so much increased planning to spend money in public cloud. We do have some issues that we still need to resolve. For example, multi-cloud sounds great, but we still need some sort of single pane of glass, control plane so we can have some fungibility and move workloads around. And some of this may also not be in public cloud, some workloads may actually be done in a more hybrid environment. >> Yeah, definitely. I call it Supercloud. People win sometimes-- >> Supercloud. >> At that term, but it's above multi-cloud, it floats, you know, on topic. But so you clearly identified some potholes. So I want to talk about the evolution of the application experience 'cause there's some potholes there too. 81% of their respondents in that survey said, "Our development teams are embracing the cloud and other technologies faster than the rest of the organization can adopt and manage them." And that was an interesting finding to me because you'd think that infrastructure is code and designing insecurity and containers and Kubernetes would be a great thing for organizations, and it is I'm sure in terms of developer productivity, but what do you make of this? Does the modernization path also have some potholes, Sanjeev? What are those? >> So, first of all, Dave, you mentioned in your previous question, there's no ambiguity, it's a public cloud. This one, I feel it has quite a bit of ambiguity because it talks about cloud and other technologies, that sort of opens up the kimono, it's like that's everything. Also, it says that the rest of the organization is not able to adopt and manage. Adoption is a business function, management is an IT function. So I feed this question is a bit loaded. We know that app modernization is here to stay, developing in the cloud removes a lot of traditional barriers or procuring instantiating infrastructure. In addition, developers today have so many more advanced tools. So they're able to develop the application faster because they have like low-code/no-code options, they have notebooks to write the machine learning code, they have the entire DevOps CI/CD tool chain that makes it easy to version control and push changes. But there are potholes. For example, are developers really interested in fixing data quality problems, all data, privacy, data, access, data governance? How about monitoring? I doubt developers want to get encumbered with all of these operationalization management pieces. Developers are very keen to deliver new functionality. So what we are now seeing is that it is left to the data team to figure out all of these operationalization productionization things that the developers have... You know, are not truly interested in that. So which actually takes me to this topic that, Dave, you've been quite actively covering and we've been talking about, see, the whole data mesh. >> Yeah, I was going to say, it's going to solve all those data quality problems, Sanjeev. You know, I'm a sucker for data mesh. (laughing) >> Yeah, I know, but see, what's going to happen with data mesh is that developers are now going to have more domain resident power to develop these applications. What happens to all of the data curation governance quality that, you know, a central team used to do. So there's a lot of open ended questions that still need to be answered. >> Yeah, That gets automated, Tony, right? With computational governance. So-- >> Of course. >> It's not trivial, it's not trivial, but I'm still an optimist by the end of the decade we'll start to get there. Doug, I want to go to you again and talk about the business case. We all remember, you know, the business case for modernization that is... We remember the Y2K, there was a big it spending binge and this was before the (mumbles) of the enterprise, right? CIOs, they'd be asked to develop new applications and the business maybe helps pay for it or offset the cost with the initial work and deployment then IT got stuck managing the sprawling portfolio for years. And a lot of the apps had limited adoption or only served a few users, so there were big pushes toward rationalizing the portfolio at that time, you know? So do I modernize, they had to make a decision, consolidate, do I sunset? You know, it was all based on value. So what's happening today and how are businesses making the case to modernize, are they going through a similar rationalization exercise, Doug? >> Well, the Y2K era experience that you talked about was back in the days of, you know, throw the requirements over the wall and then we had waterfall development that lasted months in some cases years. We see today's most successful companies building cross functional teams. You know, the C-suite the line of business, the operations, the data and analytics teams, the IT, everybody has a seat at the table to lead innovation and modernization initiatives and they don't start, the most successful companies don't start by talking about technology, they start by envisioning a business outcome by envisioning a transformed customer experience. You hear the example of Amazon writing the press release for the product or service it wants to deliver and then it works backwards to create it. You got to work backwards to determine the tech that will get you there. What's very clear though, is that you can't transform or modernize by lifting and shifting the legacy mess into the cloud. That doesn't give you the seamless processes, that doesn't give you data driven personalization, it doesn't give you a connected and consistent customer experience, whether it's online or mobile, you know, bots, chat, phone, everything that we have today that requires a modern, scalable cloud negative approach and agile deliver iterative experience where you're collaborating with this cross-functional team and course correct, again, making sure you're on track to what's needed. >> Yeah. Now, Tony, both Doug and Sanjeev have been, you know, talking about what I'm going to call this IT and business schism, and we've all done surveys. One of the things I'd love to see Couchbase do in future surveys is not only survey the it heavy, but also survey the business heavy and see what they say about who's leading the digital transformation and who's in charge of the customer experience. Do you have any thoughts on that, Tony? >> Well, there's no question... I mean, it's kind like, you know, the more things change. I mean, we've been talking about that IT and the business has to get together, we talked about this back during, and Doug, you probably remember this, back during the Y2K ERP days, is that you need these cross functional teams, we've been seeing this. I think what's happening today though, is that, you know, back in the Y2K era, we were basically going into like our bedrock systems and having to totally re-engineer them. And today what we're looking at is that, okay, those bedrock systems, the ones that basically are keeping the lights on, okay, those are there, we're not going to mess with that, but on top of that, that's where we're going to innovate. And that gives us a chance to be more, you know, more directed and therefore we can bring these related domains together. I mean, that's why just kind of, you know, talk... Where Sanjeev brought up the term of data mesh, I've been a bit of a cynic about data mesh, but I do think that work and work is where we bring a bunch of these connected teams together, teams that have some sort of shared context, though it's everybody that's... Every team that's working, let's say around the customer, for instance, which could be, you know, in marketing, it could be in sales, order processing in some cases, you know, in logistics and delivery. So I think that's where I think we... You know, there's some hope and the fact is that with all the advanced, you know, basically the low-code/no-code tools, they are ways to bring some of these other players, you know, into the process who previously had to... Were sort of, you know, more at the end of like a, you know, kind of a... Sort of like they throw it over the wall type process. So I do believe, but despite all my cynicism, I do believe there's some hope. >> Thank you. Okay, last question. And maybe all of you could answer this. Maybe, Sanjeev, you can start it off and then Doug and Tony can chime in. In the survey, about a half, nearly half of the 650 respondents said they could tangibly show their organizations improve customer experiences that were realized from digital projects in the last 12 months. Now, again, not surprising, but we've been talking about digital experiences, but there's a long way to go judging from our pandemic customer experiences. And we, again, you know, some were great, some were terrible. And so, you know, and some actually got worse, right? Will that improve? When and how will it improve? Where's 5G and things like that fit in in terms of improving customer outcomes? Maybe, Sanjeev, you could start us off here. And by the way, plug any research that you're working on in this sort of area, please do. >> Thank you, Dave. As a resident optimist on this call, I'll get us started and then I'm sure Doug and Tony will have interesting counterpoints. So I'm a technology fan boy, I have to admit, I am in all of all these new companies and how they have been able to rise up and handle extreme scale. In this time that we are speaking on this show, these food delivery companies would have probably handled tens of thousands of orders in minutes. So these concurrent orders, delivery, customer support, geospatial location intelligence, all of this has really become commonplace now. It used to be that, you know, large companies like Apple would be able to handle all of these supply chain issues, disruptions that we've been facing. But now in my opinion, I think we are seeing this in, Doug mentioned Rocket Mortgage. So we've seen it in FinTech and shopping apps. So we've seen the same scale and it's more than 5G. It includes things like... Even in the public cloud, we have much more efficient, better hardware, which can do like deep learning networks much more efficiently. So machine learning, a lot of natural language programming, being able to handle unstructured data. So in my opinion, it's quite phenomenal to see how technology has actually come to rescue and as, you know, billions of us have gone online over the last two years. >> Yeah, so, Doug, so Sanjeev's point, he's saying, basically, you ain't seen nothing yet. What are your thoughts here, your final thoughts. >> Well, yeah, I mean, there's some incredible technologies coming including 5G, but you know, it's only going to pave the cow path if the underlying app, if the underlying process is clunky. You have to modernize, take advantage of, you know, serverless scalability, autonomous optimization, advanced data science. There's lots of cutting edge capabilities out there today, but you know, lifting and shifting you got to get your hands dirty and actually modernize on that data front. I mentioned my research this year, I'm doing a lot of in depth looks at some of the analytical data platforms. You know, these lake houses we've had some conversations about that and helping companies to harness their data, to have a more personalized and predictive and proactive experience. So, you know, we're talking about the Snowflakes and Databricks and Googles and Teradata and Vertica and Yellowbrick and that's the research I'm focusing on this year. >> Yeah, your point about paving the cow path is right on, especially over the pandemic, a lot of the processes were unknown. But you saw this with RPA, paving the cow path only got you so far. And so, you know, great points there. Tony, you get the last word, bring us home. >> Well, I'll put it this way. I think there's a lot of hope in terms of that the new generation of developers that are coming in are a lot more savvy about things like data. And I think also the new generation of people in the business are realizing that we need to have data as a core competence. So I do have optimism there that the fact is, I think there is a much greater consciousness within both the business side and the technical. In the technology side, the organization of the importance of data and how to approach that. And so I'd like to just end on that note. >> Yeah, excellent. And I think you're right. Putting data at the core is critical data mesh I think very well describes the problem and (mumbles) credit lays out a solution, just the technology's not there yet, nor are the standards. Anyway, I want to thank the panelists here. Amazing. You guys are always so much fun to work with and love to have you back in the future. And thank you for joining today's broadcast brought to you by Couchbase. By the way, check out Couchbase on the road this summer at their application modernization summits, they're making up for two years of shut in and coming to you. So you got to go to couchbase.com/roadshow to find a city near you where you can meet face to face. In a moment. Ravi Mayuram, the chief technology officer of Couchbase will join me. You're watching theCUBE, the leader in high tech enterprise coverage. (bright music)

(upbeat music) >> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto, in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is braking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Database is the heart of enterprise computing. The market is both exploding and it's evolving. The major force is transforming the space include Cloud and data, of course, but also new workloads, advanced memory and IO capabilities, new processor types, a massive push towards simplicity, new data sharing and governance models, and a spate of venture investment. Snowflake stands out as the gold standard for operational excellence and go to market execution. The company has attracted the attention of customers, investors, and competitors and everyone from entrenched players to upstarts once in the act. Hello everyone and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we'll share our most current thinking on the database marketplace and dig into Snowflake's execution. Some of its challenges and we'll take a look at how others are making moves to solve customer problems and try to get a piece of the growing database pie. Let's look at some of the factors that are driving market momentum. First, customers want lower license costs. They want simplicity. They want to avoid database sprawl. They want to run anywhere and manage new data types. These needs often are divergent and they pull vendors and technologies in different direction. It's really hard for any one platform to accommodate every customer need. The market is large and it's growing. Gardner has it at around 60 to 65 billion with a CAGR of somewhere around 20% over the next five years. But the market, as we know it is being redefined. Traditionally, databases have served two broad use cases, OLTP or transactions and reporting like data warehouses. But a diversity of workloads and new architectures and innovations have given rise to a number of new types of databases to accommodate all these diverse customer needs. Many billions have been spent over the last several years in venture money and it continues to pour in. Let me just give you some examples. Snowflake prior to its IPO, raised around 1.4 billion. Redis Labs has raised more than 1/2 billion dollars so far, Cockroach Labs, more than 350 million, Couchbase, 250 million, SingleStore formerly MemSQL, 238 million, Yellowbrick Data, 173 million. And if you stretch the definition of database a little bit to including low-code or no-code, Airtable has raised more than 600 million. And that's by no means a complete list. Now, why is all this investment happening? Well, in a large part, it's due to the TAM. The TAM is huge and it's growing and it's being redefined. Just how big is this market? Let's take a look at a chart that we've shown previously. We use this chart to Snowflakes TAM, and it focuses mainly on the analytics piece, but we'll use it here to really underscore the market potential. So the actual database TAM is larger than this, we think. Cloud and Cloud-native technologies have changed the way we think about databases. Virtually 100% of the database players that they're are in the market have pivoted to a Cloud first strategy. And many like Snowflake, they're pretty dogmatic and have a Cloud only strategy. Databases has historically been very difficult to manage, they're really sensitive to latency. So that means they require a lot of tuning. Cloud allows you to throw virtually infinite resources on demand and attack performance problems and scale very quickly, minimizing the complexity and tuning nuances. This idea, this layer of data as a service we think of it as a staple of digital transformation. Is this layer that's forming to support things like data sharing across ecosystems and the ability to build data products or data services. It's a fundamental value proposition of Snowflake and one of the most important aspects of its offering. Snowflake tracks a metric called edges, which are external connections in its data Cloud. And it claims that 15% of its total shared connections are edges and that's growing at 33% quarter on quarter. This notion of data sharing is changing the way people think about data. We use terms like data as an asset. This is the language of the 2010s. We don't share our assets with others, do we? No, we protect them, we secure or them, we even hide them. But we absolutely don't want to share those assets but we do want to share our data. I had a conversation recently with Forrester analyst, Michelle Goetz. And we both agreed we're going to scrub data as an asset from our phrasiology. Increasingly, people are looking at sharing as a way to create, as I said, data products or data services, which can be monetized. This is an underpinning of Zhamak Dehghani's concept of a data mesh, make data discoverable, shareable and securely governed so that we can build data products and data services that can be monetized. This is where the TAM just explodes and the market is redefining. And we think is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Let's talk a little bit about the diversity of offerings in the marketplace. Again, databases used to be either transactional or analytic. The bottom lines and top lines. And this chart here describe those two but the types of databases, you can see the middle of mushrooms, just looking at this list, blockchain is of course a specialized type of database and it's also finding its way into other database platforms. Oracle is notable here. Document databases that support JSON and graph data stores that assist in visualizing data, inference from multiple different sources. That's is one of the ways in which adtech has taken off and been so effective. Key Value stores, log databases that are purpose-built, machine learning to enhance insights, spatial databases to help build the next generation of products, the next automobile, streaming databases to manage real time data flows and time series databases. We might've missed a few, let us know if you think we have, but this is a kind of pretty comprehensive list that is somewhat mind boggling when you think about it. And these unique requirements, they've spawned tons of innovation and companies. Here's a small subset on this logo slide. And this is by no means an exhaustive list, but you have these companies here which have been around forever like Oracle and IBM and Teradata and Microsoft, these are the kind of the tier one relational databases that have matured over the years. And they've got properties like atomicity, consistency, isolation, durability, what's known as ACID properties, ACID compliance. Some others that you may or may not be familiar with, Yellowbrick Data, we talked about them earlier. It's going after the best price, performance and analytics and optimizing to take advantage of both hybrid installations and the latest hardware innovations. SingleStore, as I said, formerly known as MemSQL is a very high end analytics and transaction database, supports mixed workloads, extremely high speeds. We're talking about trillions of rows per second that could be ingested in query. Couchbase with hybrid transactions and analytics, Redis Labs, open source, no SQL doing very well, as is Cockroach with distributed SQL, MariaDB with its managed MySQL, Mongo and document database has a lot of momentum, EDB, which supports open source Postgres. And if you stretch the definition a bit, Splunk, for log database, why not? ChaosSearch, really interesting startup that leaves data in S-3 and is going after simplifying the ELK stack, New Relic, they have a purpose-built database for application performance management and we probably could have even put Workday in the mix as it developed a specialized database for its apps. Of course, we can't forget about SAP with how not trying to pry customers off of Oracle. And then the big three Cloud players, AWS, Microsoft and Google with extremely large portfolios of database offerings. The spectrum of products in this space is very wide, with you've got AWS, which I think we're up to like 16 database offerings, all the way to Oracle, which has like one database to do everything not withstanding MySQL because it owns MySQL got that through the Sun Acquisition. And it recently, it made some innovations there around the heat wave announcement. But essentially Oracle is investing to make its database, Oracle database run any workload. While AWS takes the approach of the right tool for the right job and really focuses on the primitives for each database. A lot of ways to skin a cat in this enormous and strategic market. So let's take a look at the spending data for the names that make it into the ETR survey. Not everybody we just mentioned will be represented because they may not have quite the market presence of the ends in the survey, but ETR that capture a pretty nice mix of players. So this chart here, it's one of the favorite views that we like to share quite often. It shows the database players across the 1500 respondents in the ETR survey this past quarter and it measures their net score. That's spending momentum and is shown on the vertical axis and market share, which is the pervasiveness in the data set is on the horizontal axis. The Snowflake is notable because it's been hovering around 80% net score since the survey started picking them up. Anything above 40%, that red line there, is considered by us to be elevated. Microsoft and AWS, they also stand out because they have both market presence and they have spending velocity with their platforms. Oracle is very large but it doesn't have the spending momentum in the survey because nearly 30% of Oracle installations are spending less, whereas only 22% are spending more. Now as a caution, this survey doesn't measure dollar spent and Oracle will be skewed toward the big customers with big budgets. So you got to consider that caveat when evaluating this data. IBM is in a similar position although its market share is not keeping up with Oracle's. Google, they've got great tech especially with BigQuery and it has elevated momentum. So not a bad spot to be in although I'm sure it would like to be closer to AWS and Microsoft on the horizontal axis, so it's got some work to do there. And some of the others we mentioned earlier, like MemSQL, Couchbase. As shown MemSQL here, they're now SingleStore. Couchbase, Reddis, Mongo, MariaDB, all very solid scores on the vertical axis. Cloudera just announced that it was selling to private equity and that will hopefully give it some time to invest in this platform and get off the quarterly shot clock. MapR was acquired by HPE and it's part of HPE's Ezmeral platform, their data platform which doesn't yet have the market presence in the survey. Now, something that is interesting in looking at in Snowflakes earnings last quarter, is this laser focused on large customers. This is a hallmark of Frank Slootman and Mike Scarpelli who I know they don't have a playbook but they certainly know how to go whale hunting. So this chart isolates the data that we just showed you to the global 1000. Note that both AWS and Snowflake go up higher on the X-axis meaning large customers are spending at a faster rate for these two companies. The previous chart had an end of 161 for Snowflake, and a 77% net score. This chart shows the global 1000, in the end there for Snowflake is 48 accounts and the net score jumps to 85%. We're not going to show it here but when you isolate the ETR data, nice you can just cut it, when you isolate it on the fortune 1000, the end for Snowflake goes to 59 accounts in the data set and Snowflake jumps another 100 basis points in net score. When you cut the data by the fortune 500, the Snowflake N goes to 40 accounts and the net score jumps another 200 basis points to 88%. And when you isolate on the fortune 100 accounts is only 18 there but it's still 18, their net score jumps to 89%, almost 90%. So it's very strong confirmation that there's a proportional relationship between larger accounts and spending momentum in the ETR data set. So Snowflakes large account strategy appears to be working. And because we think Snowflake is sticky, this probably is a good sign for the future. Now we've been talking about net score, it's a key measure in the ETR data set, so we'd like to just quickly remind you what that is and use Snowflake as an example. This wheel chart shows the components of net score, that lime green is new adoptions. 29% of the customers in the ETR dataset that are new to Snowflake. That's pretty impressive. 50% of the customers are spending more, that's the forest green, 20% are flat, that's the gray, and only 1%, the pink, are spending less. And 0% zero or replacing Snowflake, no defections. What you do here to get net scores, you subtract the red from the green and you get a net score of 78%. Which is pretty sick and has been sick as in good sick and has been steady for many, many quarters. So that's how the net score methodology works. And remember, it typically takes Snowflake customers many months like six to nine months to start consuming it's services at the contracted rate. So those 29% new adoptions, they're not going to kick into high gear until next year, so that bodes well for future revenue. Now, it's worth taking a quick snapshot at Snowflakes most recent quarter, there's plenty of stuff out there that you can you can google and get a summary but let's just do a quick rundown. The company's product revenue run rate is now at 856 million they'll surpass $1 billion on a run rate basis this year. The growth is off the charts very high net revenue retention. We've explained that before with Snowflakes consumption pricing model, they have to account for retention differently than what a SaaS company. Snowflake added 27 net new $1 million accounts in the quarter and claims to have more than a hundred now. It also is just getting its act together overseas. Slootman says he's personally going to spend more time in Europe, given his belief, that the market is huge and they can disrupt it and of course he's from the continent. He was born there and lived there and gross margins expanded, do in a large part to renegotiation of its Cloud costs. Welcome back to that in a moment. Snowflake it's also moving from a product led growth company to one that's more focused on core industries. Interestingly media and entertainment is one of the largest along with financial services and it's several others. To me, this is really interesting because Disney's example that Snowflake often puts in front of its customers as a reference. And it seems to me to be a perfect example of using data and analytics to both target customers and also build so-called data products through data sharing. Snowflake has to grow its ecosystem to live up to its lofty expectations and indications are that large SIS are leaning in big time. Deloitte cross the $100 million in deal flow in the quarter. And the balance sheet's looking good. Thank you very much with $5 billion in cash. The snarks are going to focus on the losses, but this is all about growth. This is a growth story. It's about customer acquisition, it's about adoption, it's about loyalty and it's about lifetime value. Now, as I said at the IPO, and I always say this to young people, don't buy a stock at the IPO. There's probably almost always going to be better buying opportunities ahead. I'm not always right about that, but I often am. Here's a chart of Snowflake's performance since IPO. And I have to say, it's held up pretty well. It's trading above its first day close and as predicted there were better opportunities than day one but if you have to make a call from here. I mean, don't take my stock advice, do your research. Snowflake they're priced to perfection. So any disappointment is going to be met with selling. You saw that the day after they beat their earnings last quarter because their guidance in revenue growth,. Wasn't in the triple digits, it sort of moderated down to the 80% range. And they pointed, they pointed to a new storage compression feature that will lower customer costs and consequently, it's going to lower their revenue. I swear, I think that that before earnings calls, Scarpelli sits back he's okay, what kind of creative way can I introduce the dampen enthusiasm for the guidance. Now I'm not saying lower storage costs will translate into lower revenue for a period of time. But look at dropping storage prices, customers are always going to buy more, that's the way the storage market works. And stuff like did allude to that in all fairness. Let me introduce something that people in Silicon Valley are talking about, and that is the Cloud paradox for SaaS companies. And what is that? I was a clubhouse room with Martin Casado of Andreessen when I first heard about this. He wrote an article with Sarah Wang, calling it to question the merits of SaaS companies sticking with Cloud at scale. Now the basic premise is that for startups in early stages of growth, the Cloud is a no brainer for SaaS companies, but at scale, the cost of Cloud, the Cloud bill approaches 50% of the cost of revenue, it becomes an albatross that stifles operating leverage. Their conclusion ended up saying that as much as perhaps as much as the back of the napkin, they admitted that, but perhaps as much as 1/2 a trillion dollars in market cap is being vacuumed away by the hyperscalers that could go to the SaaS providers as cost savings from repatriation. And that Cloud repatriation is an inevitable path for large SaaS companies at scale. I was particularly interested in this as I had recently put on a post on the Cloud repatriation myth. I think in this instance, there's some merit to their conclusions. But I don't think it necessarily bleeds into traditional enterprise settings. But for SaaS companies, maybe service now has it right running their own data centers or maybe a hybrid approach to hedge bets and save money down the road is prudent. What caught my attention in reading through some of the Snowflake docs, like the S-1 in its most recent 10-K were comments regarding long-term purchase commitments and non-cancelable contracts with Cloud companies. And the companies S-1, for example, there was disclosure of $247 million in purchase commitments over a five plus year period. And the company's latest 10-K report, that same line item jumped to 1.8 billion. Now Snowflake is clearly managing these costs as it alluded to when its earnings call. But one has to wonder, at some point, will Snowflake follow the example of say Dropbox which Andreessen used in his blog and start managing its own IT? Or will it stick with the Cloud and negotiate hard? Snowflake certainly has the leverage. It has to be one of Amazon's best partners and customers even though it competes aggressively with Redshift but on the earnings call, CFO Scarpelli said, that Snowflake was working on a new chip technology to dramatically increase performance. What the heck does that mean? Is this Snowflake is not becoming a hardware company? So I going to have to dig into that a little bit and find out what that it means. I'm guessing, it means that it's taking advantage of ARM-based processes like graviton, which many ISVs ar allowing their software to run on that lower cost platform. Or maybe there's some deep dark in the weeds secret going on inside Snowflake, but I doubt it. We're going to leave all that for there for now and keep following this trend. So it's clear just in summary that Snowflake they're the pace setter in this new exciting world of data but there's plenty of room for others. And they still have a lot to prove. For instance, one customer in ETR, CTO round table express skepticism that Snowflake will live up to its hype because its success is going to lead to more competition from well-established established players. This is a common theme you hear it all the time. It's pretty easy to reach that conclusion. But my guess is this the exact type of narrative that fuels Slootman and sucked him back into this game of Thrones. That's it for now, everybody. Remember, these episodes they're all available as podcasts, wherever you listen. All you got to do is search braking analysis podcast and please subscribe to series. Check out ETR his website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikinbon.com and siliconangle.com. You can get in touch with me, Email is David.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can DM me at DVelante on Twitter or comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week everybody, be well and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> In June of this year, Snowflake filed a confidential document suggesting that it would do an IPO. Now of course, everybody knows about it, found out about it and it had a $20 billion valuation. So, many in the community and the investment community and so forth are excited about this IPO. It could be the hottest one of the year, and we're getting a number of questions from investors and practitioners and the entire Wiki bond, ETR and CUBE community. So, welcome everybody. This is Dave Vellante. This is "CUBE Insights" powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we're going to unpack five critical questions around Snowflake's IPO or pending IPO. And with me to discuss that is Erik Bradley. He's the Chief Engagement Strategists at ETR and he's also the Managing Director of VENN. Erik, thanks for coming on and great to see you as always. >> Great to see you too. Always enjoy being on the show. Thank you. >> Now for those of you don't know Erik, VENN is a roundtable that he hosts and he brings in CIOs, IT practitioners, CSOs, data experts and they have an open and frank conversation, but it's private to ETR clients. But they know who the individual is, what their role is, what their title is, et cetera and it's a kind of an ask me anything. And I participated in one of them this past week. Outstanding. And we're going to share with you some of that. But let's bring up the agenda slide if we can here. And these are really some of the questions that we're getting from investors and others in the community. There's really five areas that we want to address. The first is what's happening in this enterprise data warehouse marketplace? The second thing is kind of a one area. What about the legacy EDW players like Oracle and Teradata and Netezza? The third question we get a lot is can Snowflake compete with the big cloud players? Amazon, Google, Microsoft. I mean they're right there in the heart, in the thick of things there. And then what about that multi-cloud strategy? Is that viable? How much of a differentiator is that? And then we get a lot of questions on the TAM. Meaning the total available market. How big is that market? Does it justify the valuation for Snowflake? Now, Erik, you've been doing this now. You've run a couple VENNs, you've been following this, you've done some other work that you've done with Eagle Alpha. What's your, just your initial sort of takeaway from all this work that you've been doing. >> Yeah, sure. So my first take on Snowflake was about two and a half years ago. I actually hosted them for one of my VENN interviews and my initial thought was impressed. So impressed. They were talking at the time about their ability to kind of make ease of use of a multi-cloud strategy. At the time although I was impressed, I did not expect the growth and the hyper growth that we have seen now. But, looking at the company in its current iteration, I understand where the hype is coming from. I mean, it's 12 and a half billion private valuation in the last round. The least confidential IPO (laughs) anyone's ever seen (Dave laughs) with a 15 to $20 billion valuation coming out, which is more than Teradata, Margo and Cloudera combined. It's a great question. So obviously the success to this point is warranted, but we need to see what they're going to be able to do next. So I think the agenda you laid out is a great one and I'm looking forward to getting into some of those details. >> So let's start with what's happening in the marketplace and let's pull up a slide that I very much love to use. It's the classic X-Y. On the vertical axis here we show net score. And remember folks, net score is an indicator of spending momentum. ETR every quarter does like a clockwork survey where they're asking people, "Essentially are you spending more or less?" They subtract the less from the more and comes up with a net score. It's more complicated than, but like NPS, it's a very simple and reliable methodology. That's the vertical axis. And the horizontal axis is what's called market share. Market share is the pervasiveness within the data set. So it's calculated by the number of mentions of the vendor divided by the number of mentions within that sector. And what we're showing here is the EDW sector. And we've pulled out a few companies that I want to talk about. So the big three, obviously Microsoft, AWS and Google. And you can see Microsoft has a huge presence far to the right. AWS, very, very strong. A lot of Redshift in there. And then they're pretty high on the vertical axis. And then Google, not as much share, but very solid in that. Close to 60% net score. And then you can see above all of them from a vertical standpoint is Snowflake with a 77.5% net score. You can see them in the upper right there in the green. One of the highest Erik in the entire data set. So, let's start with some sort of initial comments on the big guys and Snowflakes. Your thoughts? >> Sure. Just first of all to comment on the data, what we're showing there is just the data warehousing sector, but Snowflake's actual net score is that high amongst the entire universe that we follow. Their data strength is unprecedented and we have forward-looking spending intention. So this bodes very well for them. Now, what you did say very accurately is there's a difference between their spending intentions on a net revenue level compared to AWS, Microsoft. There no one's saying that this is an apples-to-apples comparison when it comes to actual revenue. So we have to be very cognizant of that. There is domination (laughs) quite frankly from AWS and from Azure. And Snowflake is a necessary component for them not only to help facilitate a multi-cloud, but look what's happening right now in the US Congress, right? We have these tech leaders being grilled on their actual dominance. And one of the main concerns they have is the amount of data that they're collecting. So I think the environment is right to have another player like this. I think Snowflake really has a lot of longevity and our data is supporting that. And the commentary that we hear from our end users, the people that take the survey are supporting that as well. >> Okay, and then let's stay on this X-Y slide for a moment. I want to just pull out a couple of other comments here, because one of the questions we're asking is Whither, the legacy EDW players. So we've got in here, IBM, Oracle, you can see Teradata and then Hortonworks and MapR. We're going to talk a little bit about Hortonworks 'cause it's now Cloudera. We're going to talk a little bit about Hadoop and some of the data lakes. So you can see there they don't have nearly the net score momentum. Oracle obviously has a huge install base and is investing quite frankly in R&D and do an Exadata and it has its own cloud. So, it's got a lock on it's customers and if it keeps investing and adding value, it's not going away. IBM with Netezza, there's really been some questions around their commitment to that base. And I know that a lot of the folks in the VENNs that we've talked to Erik have said, "Well, we're replacing Netezza." Frank Slootman has been very vocal about going after Teradata. And then we're going to talk a little bit about the Hadoop space. But, can you summarize for us your thoughts in your research and the commentary from your community, what's going on with the legacy guys? Are these guys cooked? Can they hang on? What's your take? >> Sure. We focus on this quite a bit actually. So, I'm going to talk about it from the data perspective first, and then we'll go into some of the commentary and the panel. You even joined one yesterday. You know that it was touched upon. But, first on the data side, what we're noticing and capturing is a widening bifurcation between these cloud native and the legacy on-prem. It is undeniable. There is nothing that you can really refute. The data is concrete and it is getting worse. That gap is getting wider and wider and wider. Now, the one thing I will say is, nobody's going to rip out their legacy applications tomorrow. It takes years and years. So when you look at Teradata, right? Their market cap's only 2 billion, 2.3 billion. How much revenue growth do they need to stay where they are? Not much, right? No one's expecting them to grow 20%, which is what you're seeing on the left side of that screen. So when you look at the legacy versus the cloud native, there is very clear direction of what's happening. The one thing I would note from the data perspective is if you switched from net score or adoptions and you went to flat spending, you suddenly see Oracle and Teradata move over to that left a little bit, because again what I'm trying to say is I don't think they're going to catch up. No, but also don't think they're going away tomorrow. That these have large install bases, they have relationships. Now to kind of get into what you were saying about each particular one, IBM, they shut down Netezza. They shut it down and then they brought it back to life. How does that make you feel if you're the head of data architecture or you're DevOps and you're trying to build an application for a large company? I'm not going back to that. There's absolutely no way. Teradata on the other hand is known to be incredibly stable. They are known to just not fail. If you need to kind of re-architect or you do a migration, they work. Teradata also has a lot of compliance built in. So if you're a financials, if you have a regulated business or industry, there's still some data sets that you're not going to move up to the cloud. Whether it's a PII compliance or financial reasons, some of that stuff is still going to live on-prem. So Teradata is still has a very good niche. And from what we're hearing from our panels, then this is a direct quote if you don't mind me looking off screen for one second. But this is a great one. Basically said, "Teradata is the only one from the legacy camp who is putting up a fight and not giving up." Basically from a CIO perspective, the rest of them aren't an option anymore. But Teradata is still fighting and that's great to hear. They have their own data as a service offering and listen, they're a small market cap compared to these other companies we're talking about. But, to summarize, the data is very clear. There is a widening bifurcation between the two camps. I do not think legacy will catch up. I think all net new workloads are moving to data as a service, moving to cloud native, moving to hosted, but there are still going to be some existing legacy on-prem applications that will be supported with these older databases. And of those, Oracle and Teradata are still viable options. >> I totally agree with you and my colleague David Floyd is actually quite high on Teradata Vantage because he really does believe that a key component, we're going to talk about the TAM in a minute, but a key component of the TAM he believes must include the on-premises workloads. And Frank Slootman has been very clear, "We're not doing on-prem, we're not doing this halfway house." And so that's an opportunity for companies like Teradata, certainly Oracle I would put it in that camp is putting up a fight. Vertica is another one. They're very small, but another one that's sort of battling it out from the old NPP world. But that's great. Let's go into some of the specifics. Let's bring up here some of the specific commentary that we've curated here from the roundtables. I'm going to go through these and then ask you to comment. The first one is just, I mean, people are obviously very excited about Snowflake. It's easy to use, the whole thing zero to Snowflake in 90 minutes, but Snowflake is synonymous with cloud-native data warehousing. There are no equals. We heard that a lot from your VENN panelist. >> We certainly did. There was even more euphoria around Snowflake than I expected when we started hosting these series of data warehousing panels. And this particular gentleman that said that happens to be the global head of data architecture for a fortune 100 financials company. And you mentioned earlier that we did a report alongside Eagle Alpha. And we noticed that among fortune 100 companies that are also using the big three public cloud companies, Snowflake is growing market share faster than anyone else. They are positioned in a way where even if you're aligned with Azure, even if you're aligned with AWS, if you're a large company, they are gaining share right now. So that particular gentleman's comments was very interesting. He also made a comment that said, "Snowflake is the person who championed the idea that data warehousing is not dead yet. Use that old monthly Python line and you're not dead yet." And back in the day where the Hadoop came along and the data lakes turned into a data swamp and everyone said, "We don't need warehousing anymore." Well, that turned out to be a head fake, right? Hadoop was an interesting technology, but it's a complex technology. And it ended up not really working the way people want it. I think Snowflake came in at that point at an opportune time and said, "No, data warehousing isn't dead. We just have to separate the compute from the storage layer and look at what I can do. That increases flexibility, security. It gives you that ability to run across multi-cloud." So honestly the commentary has been nothing but positive. We can get into some of the commentary about people thinking that there's competition catching up to what they do, but there is no doubt that right now Snowflake is the name when it comes to data as a service. >> The other thing we heard a lot was ETL is going to get completely disrupted, you sort of embedded ETL. You heard one panelist say, "Well, it's interesting to see that guys like Informatica are talking about how fast they can run inside a Snowflake." But Snowflake is making that easy. That data prep is sort of part of the package. And so that does not bode well for ETL vendors. >> It does not, right? So ETL is a legacy of on-prem databases and even when Hadoop came along, it still needed that extra layer to kind of work with the data. But this is really, really disrupting them. Now the Snowflake's credit, they partner well. All the ETL players are partnered with Snowflake, they're trying to play nice with them, but the writings on the wall as more and more of this application and workloads move to the cloud, you don't need the ETL layer. Now, obviously that's going to affect their talent and Informatica the most. We had a recent comment that said, this was a CIO who basically said, "The most telling thing about the ETL players right now is every time you speak to them, all they talk about is how they work in a Snowflake architecture." That's their only metric that they talk about right now. And he said, "That's very telling." That he basically used it as it's their existential identity to be part of Snowflake. If they're not, they don't exist anymore. So it was interesting to have sort of a philosophical comment brought up in one of my roundtables. But that's how important playing nice and finding a niche within this new data as a service is for ETL, but to be quite honest, they might be going the same way of, "Okay, let's figure out our niche on these still the on-prem workloads that are still there." I think over time we might see them maybe as an M&A possibility, whether it's Snowflake or one of these new up and comers, kind of bring them in and sort of take some of the technology that's useful and layer it in. But as a large market cap, solo existing niche, I just don't know how long ETL is for this world. >> Now, yeah. I mean, you're right that if it wasn't for the marketing, they're not fighting fashion. But >> No. >> really there're some challenges there. Now, there were some contrarians in the panel and they signaled some potential icebergs ahead. And I guarantee you're going to see this in Snowflake's Red Herring when we actually get it. Like we're going to see all the risks. One of the comments, I'll mention the two and then we can talk about it. "Their engineering advantage will fade over time." Essentially we're saying that people are going to copycat and we've seen that. And the other point is, "Hey, we might see some similar things that happened to Hadoop." The public cloud players giving away these offerings at zero cost. Essentially marginal cost of adding another service is near zero. So the cloud players will use their heft to compete. Your thoughts? >> Yeah, first of all one of the reasons I love doing panels, right? Because we had three gentlemen on this panel that all had nothing but wonderful things to say. But you always get one. And this particular person is a CTO of a well known online public travel agency. We'll put it that way. And he said, "I'm going to be the contrarian here. I have seven different technologies from private companies that do the same thing that I'm evaluating." So that's the pressure from behind, right? The technology, they're going to catch up. Right now Snowflake has the best engineering which interestingly enough they took a lot of that engineering from IBM and Teradata if you actually go back and look at it, which was brought up in our panel as well. He said, "However, the engineering will catch up. They always do." Now from the other side they're getting squeezed because the big cloud players just say, "Hey, we can do this too. I can bundle it with all the other services I'm giving you and I can squeeze your pay. Pretty much give it a waive at the cost." So I do think that there is a very valid concern. When you come out with a $20 billion IPO evaluation, you need to warrant that. And when you see competitive pressures from both sides, from private emerging technologies and from the more dominant public cloud players, you're going to get squeezed there a little bit. And if pricing gets squeezed, it's going to be very, very important for Snowflake to continue to innovate. That comment you brought up about possibly being the next Cloudera was certainly the best sound bite that I got. And I'm going to use it as Clickbait in future articles, because I think everyone who starts looking to buy a Snowflake stock and they see that, they're going to need to take a look. But I would take that with a grain of salt. I don't think that's happening anytime soon, but what that particular CTO was referring to was if you don't innovate, the technology itself will become commoditized. And he believes that this technology will become commoditized. So therefore Snowflake has to continue to innovate. They have to find other layers to bring in. Whether that's through their massive war chest of cash they're about to have and M&A, whether that's them buying analytics company, whether that's them buying an ETL layer, finding a way to provide more value as they move forward is going to be very important for them to justify this valuation going forward. >> And I want to comment on that. The Cloudera, Hortonworks, MapRs, Hadoop, et cetera. I mean, there are dramatic differences obviously. I mean, that whole space was so hard, very difficult to stand up. You needed science project guys and lab coats to do it. It was very services intensive. As well companies like Cloudera had to fund all these open source projects and it really squeezed their R&D. I think Snowflake is much more focused and you mentioned some of the background of their engineers, of course Oracle guys as well. However, you will see Amazon's going to trot out a ton of customers using their RA3 managed storage and their flash. I think it's the DC two piece. They have a ton of action in the marketplace because it's just so easy. It's interesting one of the comments, you asked this yesterday, was with regard to separating compute from storage, which of course it's Snowflakes they basically invented it, it was one of their climbs to fame. The comment was what AWS has done to separate compute from storage for Redshift is largely a bolt on. Which I thought that was an interesting comment. I've had some other comments. My friend George Gilbert said, "Hey, despite claims to the contrary, AWS still hasn't separated storage from compute. What they have is really primitive." We got to dig into that some more, but you're seeing some data points that suggest there's copycatting going on. May not be as functional, but at the same time, Erik, like I was saying good enough is maybe good enough in this space. >> Yeah, and especially with the enterprise, right? You see what Microsoft has done. Their technology is not as good as all the niche players, but it's good enough and I already have a Microsoft license. So, (laughs) you know why am I going to move off of it. But I want to get back to the comment you mentioned too about that particular gentleman who made that comment about RedShift, their separation is really more of a bolt on than a true offering. It's interesting because I know who these people are behind the scenes and he has a very strong relationship with AWS. So it was interesting to me that in the panel yesterday he said he switched from Redshift to Snowflake because of that and some other functionality issues. So there is no doubt from the end users that are buying this. And he's again a fortune 100 financial organization. Not the same one we mentioned. That's a different one. But again, a fortune 100 well known financials organization. He switched from AWS to Snowflake. So there is no doubt that right now they have the technological lead. And when you look at our ETR data platform, we have that adoption reasoning slide that you show. When you look at the number one reason that people are adopting Snowflake is their feature set of technological lead. They have that lead now. They have to maintain it. Now, another thing to bring up on this to think about is when you have large data sets like this, and as we're moving forward, you need to have machine learning capabilities layered into it, right? So they need to make sure that they're playing nicely with that. And now you could go open source with the Apache suite, but Google is doing so well with BigQuery and so well with their machine learning aspects. And although they don't speak enterprise well, they don't sell to the enterprise well, that's changing. I think they're somebody to really keep an eye on because their machine learning capabilities that are layered into the BigQuery are impressive. Now, of course, Microsoft Azure has Databricks. They're layering that in, but this is an area where I think you're going to see maybe what's next. You have to have machine learning capabilities out of the box if you're going to do data as a service. Right now Snowflake doesn't really have that. Some of the other ones do. So I had one of my guest panelist basically say to me, because of that, they ended up going with Google BigQuery because he was able to run a machine learning algorithm within hours of getting set up. Within hours. And he said that that kind of capability out of the box is what people are going to have to use going forward. So that's another thing we should dive into a little bit more. >> Let's get into that right now. Let's bring up the next slide which shows net score. Remember this is spending momentum across the major cloud players and plus Snowflake. So you've got Snowflake on the left, Google, AWS and Microsoft. And it's showing three survey timeframes last October, April 20, which is right in the middle of the pandemic. And then the most recent survey which has just taken place this month in July. And you can see Snowflake very, very high scores. Actually improving from the last October survey. Google, lower net scores, but still very strong. Want to come back to that and pick up on your comments. AWS dipping a little bit. I think what's happening here, we saw this yesterday with AWS's results. 30% growth. Awesome. Slight miss on the revenue side for AWS, but look, I mean massive. And they're so exposed to so many industries. So some of their industries have been pretty hard hit. Microsoft pretty interesting. A little softness there. But one of the things I wanted to pick up on Erik, when you're talking about Google and BigQuery and it's ML out of the box was what we heard from a lot of the VENN participants. There's no question about it that Google technically I would say is one of Snowflake's biggest competitors because it's cloud native. Remember >> Yep. >> AWS did a license one time. License deal with PowerShell and had a sort of refactor the thing to be cloud native. And of course we know what's happening with Microsoft. They basically were on-prem and then they put stuff in the cloud and then all the updates happen in the cloud. And then they pushed to on-prem. But they have that what Frank Slootman calls that halfway house, but BigQuery no question technically is very, very solid. But again, you see Snowflake right now anyway outpacing these guys in terms of momentum. >> Snowflake is out outpacing everyone (laughs) across our entire survey universe. It really is impressive to see. And one of the things that they have going for them is they can connect all three. It's that multi-cloud ability, right? That portability that they bring to you is such an important piece for today's modern CIO as data architects. They don't want vendor lock-in. They are afraid of vendor lock-in. And this ability to make their data portable and to do that with ease and the flexibility that they offer is a huge advantage right now. However, I think you're a hundred percent right. Google has been so focused on the engineering side and never really focusing on the enterprise sales side. That is why they're playing catch up. I think they can catch up. They're bringing in some really important enterprise salespeople with experience. They're starting to learn how to talk to enterprise, how to sell, how to support. And nobody can really doubt their engineering. How many open sources have they given us, right? They invented Kubernetes and the entire container space. No one's really going to compete with them on that side if they learn how to sell it and support it. Yeah, right now they're behind. They're a distant third. Don't get me wrong. From a pure hosted ability, AWS is number one. Microsoft is yours. Sometimes it looks like it's number one, but you have to recognize that a lot of that is because of simply they're hosted 365. It's a SAS app. It's not a true cloud type of infrastructure as a service. But Google is a distant third, but their technology is really, really great. And their ability to catch up is there. And like you said, in the panels we were hearing a lot about their machine learning capability is right out of the box. And that's where this is going. What's the point of having this huge data if you're not going to be supporting it on new application architecture. And all of those applications require machine learning. >> Awesome. So we're. And I totally agree with what you're saying about Google. They just don't have it figured out how to sell the enterprise yet. And a hundred percent AWS has the best cloud. I mean, hands down. But a very, very competitive market as we heard yesterday in front of Congress. Now we're on the point about, can Snowflake compete with the big cloud players? I want to show one more data point. So let's bring up, this is the same chart as we showed before, but it's new adoptions. And this is really telling. >> Yeah. >> You can see Snowflake with 34% in the yellow, new adoptions, down yes from previous surveys, but still significantly higher than the other players. Interesting to see Google showing momentum on new adoptions, AWS down on new adoptions. And again, exposed to a lot of industries that have been hard hit. And Microsoft actually quite low on new adoption. So this is very impressive for Snowflake. And I want to talk about the multi-cloud strategy now Erik. This came up a lot. The VENN participants who are sort of fans of Snowflake said three things: It was really the flexibility, the security which is really interesting to me. And a lot of that had to do with the flexibility. The ability to easily set up roles and not have to waste a lot of time wrangling. And then the third was multi-cloud. And that was really something that came through heavily in the VENN. Didn't it? >> It really did. And again, I think it just comes down to, I don't think you can ever overstate how afraid these guys are of vendor lock-in. They can't have it. They don't want it. And it's best practice to make sure your sensitive information is being kind of spread out a little bit. We all know that people don't trust Bezos. So if you're in certain industries, you're not going to use AWS at all, right? So yeah, this ability to have your data portability through multi-cloud is the number one reason I think people start looking at Snowflake. And to go to your point about the adoptions, it's very telling and it bodes well for them going forward. Most of the things that we're seeing right now are net new workloads. So let's go again back to the legacy side that we were talking about, the Teradatas, IBMs, Oracles. They still have the monolithic applications and the data that needs to support that, right? Like an old ERP type of thing. But anyone who's now building a new application, bringing something new to market, it's all net new workloads. There is no net new workload that is going to go to SAP or IBM. It's not going to happen. The net new workloads are going to the cloud. And that's why when you switch from net score to adoption, you see Snowflake really stand out because this is about new adoption for net new workloads. And that's really where they're driving everything. So I would just say that as this continues, as data as a service continues, I think Snowflake's only going to gain more and more share for all the reasons you stated. Now get back to your comment about security. I was shocked by that. I really was. I did not expect these guys to say, "Oh, no. Snowflake enterprise security not a concern." So two panels ago, a gentleman from a fortune 100 financials said, "Listen, it's very difficult to get us to sign off on something for security. Snowflake is past it, it is enterprise ready, and we are going full steam ahead." Once they got that go ahead, there was no turning back. We gave it to our DevOps guys, we gave it to everyone and said, "Run with it." So, when a company that's big, I believe their fortune rank is 28. (laughs) So when a company that big says, "Yeah, you've got the green light. That we were okay with the internal compliance aspect, we're okay with the security aspect, this gives us multi-cloud portability, this gives us flexibility, ease of use." Honestly there's a really long runway ahead for Snowflake. >> Yeah, so the big question I have around the multi-cloud piece and I totally and I've been on record saying, "Look, if you're going looking for an agnostic multi-cloud, you're probably not going to go with the cloud vendor." (laughs) But I've also said that I think multi-cloud to date anyway has largely been a symptom as opposed to a strategy, but that's changing. But to your point about lock-in and also I think people are maybe looking at doing things across clouds, but I think that certainly it expands Snowflake's TAM and we're going to talk about that because they support multiple clouds and they're going to be the best at that. That's a mandate for them. The question I have is how much of complex joining are you going to be doing across clouds? And is that something that is just going to be too latency intensive? Is that really Snowflake's expertise? You're really trying to build that data layer. You're probably going to maybe use some kind of Postgres database for that. >> Right. >> I don't know. I need to dig into that, but that would be an opportunity from a TAM standpoint. I just don't know how real that is. >> Yeah, unfortunately I'm going to just be honest with this one. I don't think I have great expertise there and I wouldn't want to lead anyone a wrong direction. But from what I've heard from some of my VENN interview subjects, this is happening. So the data portability needs to be agnostic to the cloud. I do think that when you're saying, are there going to be real complex kind of workloads and applications? Yes, the answer is yes. And I think a lot of that has to do with some of the container architecture as well, right? If I can just pull data from one spot, spin it up for as long as I need and then just get rid of that container, that ethereal layer of compute. It doesn't matter where the cloud lies. It really doesn't. I do think that multi-cloud is the way of the future. I know that the container workloads right now in the enterprise are still very small. I've heard people say like, "Yeah, I'm kicking the tires. We got 5%." That's going to grow. And if Snowflake can make themselves an integral part of that, then yes. I think that's one of those things where, I remember the guy said, "Snowflake has to continue to innovate. They have to find a way to grow this TAM." This is an area where they can do so. I think you're right about that, but as far as my expertise, on this one I'm going to be honest with you and say, I don't want to answer incorrectly. So you and I need to dig in a little bit on this one. >> Yeah, as it relates to question four, what's the viability of Snowflake's multi-cloud strategy? I'll say unquestionably supporting multiple clouds, very viable. Whether or not portability across clouds, multi-cloud joins, et cetera, TBD. So we'll keep digging into that. The last thing I want to focus on here is the last question, does Snowflake's TAM justify its $20 billion valuation? And you think about the data pipeline. You go from data acquisition to data prep. I mean, that really is where Snowflake shines. And then of course there's analysis. You've got to bring in EMI or AI and ML tools. That's not Snowflake's strength. And then you're obviously preparing that, serving that up to the business, visualization. So there's potential adjacencies that they could get into that they may or may not decide to. But so we put together this next chart which is kind of the TAM expansion opportunity. And I just want to briefly go through it. We published this stuff so you can go and look at all the fine print, but it's kind of starts with the data lake disruption. You called it data swamp before. The Hadoop no schema on, right? Basically the ROI of Hadoop became reduction of investment as my friend Abby Meadow would say. But so they're kind of disrupting that data lake which really was a failure. And then really going after that enterprise data warehouse which is kind of I have it here as a 10 billion. It's actually bigger than that. It's probably more like a $20 billion market. I'll update this slide. And then really what Snowflake is trying to do is be data as a service. A data layer across data stores, across clouds, really make it easy to ingest and prepare data and then serve the business with insights. And then ultimately this huge TAM around automated decision making, real-time analytics, automated business processes. I mean, that is potentially an enormous market. We got a couple of hundred billion. I mean, just huge. Your thoughts on their TAM? >> I agree. I'm not worried about their TAM and one of the reasons why as I mentioned before, they are coming out with a whole lot of cash. (laughs) This is going to be a red hot IPO. They are going to have a lot of money to spend. And look at their management team. Who is leading the way? A very successful, wise, intelligent, acquisitive type of CEO. I think there is going to be M&A activity, and I believe that M&A activity is going to be 100% for the mindset of growing their TAM. The entire world is moving to data as a service. So let's take as a backdrop. I'm going to go back to the panel we did yesterday. The first question we asked was, there was an understanding or a theory that when the virus pandemic hit, people wouldn't be taking on any sort of net new architecture. They're like, "Okay, I have Teradata, I have IBM. Let's just make sure the lights are on. Let's stick with it." Every single person I've asked, they're just now eight different experts, said to us, "Oh, no. Oh, no, no." There is the virus pandemic, the shift from work from home. Everything we're seeing right now has only accelerated and advanced our data as a service strategy in the cloud. We are building for scale, adopting cloud for data initiatives. So, across the board they have a great backdrop. So that's going to only continue, right? This is very new. We're in the early innings of this. So for their TAM, that's great because that's the core of what they do. Now on top of it you mentioned the type of things about, yeah, right now they don't have great machine learning. That could easily be acquired and built in. Right now they don't have an analytics layer. I for one would love to see these guys talk to Alteryx. Alteryx is red hot. We're seeing great data and great feedback on them. If they could do that business intelligence, that analytics layer on top of it, the entire suite as a service, I mean, come on. (laughs) Their TAM is expanding in my opinion. >> Yeah, your point about their leadership is right on. And I interviewed Frank Slootman right in the heart of the pandemic >> So impressed. >> and he said, "I'm investing in engineering almost sight unseen. More circumspect around sales." But I will caution people. That a lot of people I think see what Slootman did with ServiceNow. And he came into ServiceNow. I have to tell you. It was they didn't have their unit economics right, they didn't have their sales model and marketing model. He cleaned that up. Took it from 120 million to 1.2 billion and really did an amazing job. People are looking for a repeat here. This is a totally different situation. ServiceNow drove a truck through BMCs install base and with IT help desk and then created this brilliant TAM expansion. Let's learn and expand model. This is much different here. And Slootman also told me that he's a situational CEO. He doesn't have a playbook. And so that's what is most impressive and interesting about this. He's now up against the biggest competitors in the world: AWS, Google and Microsoft and dozens of other smaller startups that have raised a lot of money. Look at the company like Yellowbrick. They've raised I don't know $180 million. They've got a great team. Google, IBM, et cetera. So it's going to be really, really fun to watch. I'm super excited, Erik, but I'll tell you the data right now suggest they've got a great tailwind and if they can continue to execute, this is going to be really fun to watch. >> Yeah, certainly. I mean, when you come out and you are as impressive as Snowflake is, you get a target on your back. There's no doubt about it, right? So we said that they basically created the data as a service. That's going to invite competition. There's no doubt about it. And Yellowbrick is one that came up in the panel yesterday about one of our CIOs were doing a proof of concept with them. We had about seven others mentioned as well that are startups that are in this space. However, none of them despite their great valuation and their great funding are going to have the kind of money and the market lead that Slootman is going to have which Snowflake has as this comes out. And what we're seeing in Congress right now with some antitrust scrutiny around the large data that's being collected by AWS as your Google, I'm not going to bet against this guy either. Right now I think he's got a lot of opportunity, there's a lot of additional layers and because he can basically develop this as a suite service, I think there's a lot of great opportunity ahead for this company. >> Yeah, and I guarantee that he understands well that customer acquisition cost and the lifetime value of the customer, the retention rates. Those are all things that he and Mike Scarpelli, his CFO learned at ServiceNow. Not learned, perfected. (Erik laughs) Well Erik, really great conversation, awesome data. It's always a pleasure having you on. Thank you so much, my friend. I really appreciate it. >> I appreciate talking to you too. We'll do it again soon. And stay safe everyone out there. >> All right, and thank you for watching everybody this episode of "CUBE Insights" powered by ETR. This is Dave Vellante, and we'll see you next time. (soft music)