(upbeat intro music) >> More than a decade ago, the team at Wikibon coined the term Server SAN. We saw the opportunity to dramatically change the storage infrastructure layer and predicted a major change in technologies that would hit the market. Server SAN had three fundamental attributes. First of all, it was software led. So all the traditionally expensive controller functions like snapshots and clones and de-dupe and replication, compression, encryption, et cetera, they were done in software directly challenging a two to three decade long storage controller paradigm. The second principle was it leveraged and shared storage inside of servers. And the third it enabled any-to-any typology between servers and storage. Now, at the time we defined this coming trend in a relatively narrow sense inside of a data center location, for example, but in the past decade, two additional major trends have emerged. First the software defined data center became the dominant model, thanks to VMware and others. And while this eliminated a lot of overhead, it also exposed another problem. Specifically data centers today allocate probably we estimate around 35% of CPU cores and cycles to managing things like storage and network and security, offloading those functions. This is wasted cores and doing this with traditional general purpose x86 processors is expensive and it's not efficient. This is why we've been reporting so aggressively on ARM's ascendancy into the enterprise. It's not only coming it's here and we're going to talk about that today. The second mega trend is cloud computing. Hyperscale infrastructure has allowed technology companies to put a management and control plane into the cloud and expand beyond our narrow server SAN scope within a single data center and support the management of distributed data at massive scale. And today we're on the cusp of a new era of infrastructure. And one of the startups in this space is Nebulon. Hello everybody, this is Dave Vellante, and welcome to this Cube Conversation where we welcome in two great guests, Craig Nunes, Cube alum, co-founder and COO at Nebulon and Tobias Flitsch who's director of product management at Nebulon. Guys, welcome. Great to see you. >> So good to be here Dave. Feels awesome. >> Soon, face to face. Craig, I'm heading your way. >> I can't wait. >> Craig, you heard my narrative upfront and I'm wondering are those the trends that you guys saw when you, when you started the company, what are the major shifts in the world today that, that caused you and your co-founders to launch Nebulon? >> Yeah, I'll give you sort of the way we think about the world, which I think aligns super right with, with what you're talking about, you know, over the last several years, organizations have had a great deal of experience with public cloud data centers. And I think like any platform or technology that is, you know, gets its use in a variety of ways, you know, a bit of savvy is being developed by organizations on, you know, what do I put where, how do I manage things in the most efficient way possible? And there are, in terms of the types of folks we're focused on in Nebulon's business, we see now kind of three groups of people emerging, and, and we sort of simply coined three terms, the returners, the removers, and the remainers. I'll explain what I mean by each of those, the returners are folks who maybe early on, you know, hit the gas on cloud, moved, you know, everything in, a lot in, and realize that while it's awesome for some things, for other things, it was less optimal. Maybe cost became a factor or visibility into what was going on with their data was a factor, security, service levels, whatever. And they've decided to move some of those workloads back. Returners. There are what I call the removers that are taking workloads from, you know, born in the cloud. On-prem, you know, and this was talked a lot about in Martine's blog that, you know, talked about a lot of the growth companies that built up such a large footprint in the public cloud, that economics were kind of working against them. You can, depending on the knobs you turn, you know, you're probably spending two and a half X, two X, what you might spend if you own your own factory. And you can argue about, you know, where your leverage is in negotiating your pricing with the cloud vendors, but there's a big gap. The last one is, and I think probably the most significant in terms of who we've engaged with is the remainers. And the remainers are, you know, hybrid IT organizations. They've got assets in the cloud and on-prem, they aspire to an operational model that is consistent across everything and, you know, leveraging all the best stuff that they observed in their cloud-based assets. And it's kind of our view that frankly we take from, from this constituency that, when people talk about cloud or cloud first, they're moving to something that is really more an operating model versus a destination or data center choice. And so, we get people on the phone every day, talking about cloud first. And when you kind of dig into what they're after, it's operating model characteristics, not which data center do I put it in, and those, those decisions are separating. And so that, you know, it's really that focus for us is where, we believe we're doing something unique for that group of customers. >> Yeah. Cloud first doesn't doesn't mean cloud only. And of course followers of this program know, we talk a lot about this, this definition of cloud is changing, it's evolving, It's moving to the edge, it's moving to data centers, data centers are moving to the cloud. Cross-cloud, it's that big layer that's expanding. And so I think the definition of cloud, even particularly in customer's minds is evolving. There's no question about it. People, they'll look at what VMware is doing in AWS and say, okay, that's cloud, but they'll also look at things like VMware cloud foundation and say oh yeah, that's cloud too. So to me, the beauty of cloud is in the eye of the customer beholder. So I buy that. Tobias. I wonder if you could talk about how this all translates into product, because you guys start up, you got to sell stuff, you use this term smart infrastructure, what is that? How does this all turn into stuff you can sell? >> Right. Yeah. So let me back up a little bit and talk a little bit about, you know, what we at Nebulon do. So we are a cloud based software company, and we're delivering sort of a new category of smart infrastructure. And if you think about things that you would know from your everyday surroundings, smart infrastructure is really all around us. Think smart home technology like Google Nest as an example. And what this all has in common is that there's a cloud control plane that is managing some IOT end points and smart devices in various locations. And by doing that, customers gain benefits like easy remote management, right? You can manage your thermostat, your temperature from anywhere in the world basically. You don't have to worry about automated software updates anymore, and you can easily automate your home, your infrastructure, through this cloud control plane and translating this idea to the data center, right? This idea is not necessarily new, right? If you look into the networking space with Meraki networks, now Cisco or Mist Systems now Juniper, they've really pioneered efforts in cloud management. So smart network infrastructure, and the key problem that they solved there is, you know, managing these vast amount of access points and switches that are scattered across the data centers across campuses, and, you know, the data center. Now, if you translate that to what Nebulon does, it's really applying this smart infrastructure idea, this methodology to application infrastructure, specifically to compute and storage infrastructure. And that's essentially what we're doing. So with smart infrastructure, basically our offering it at Nebulon, the product, that comes with the benefits of this cloud experience, public cloud operating model, as we've talked about, some of our customers look at the cloud as an operating model rather than a destination, a physical location. And with that, we bring to us this model, this, this experience as operating a model to on-premises application infrastructure, and really what you get with this broad offering from Nebulon and the benefits are really circling it out, you know, four areas, first of all, rapid time to value, right? So application owners think people that are not specialists or experts when it comes to IT infrastructure, but more generalists, they can provision on-premise application infrastructure in less than 10 minutes, right? It can go from, from just bare metal physical racks to the full application stack in less than 10 minutes, so they're up and running a lot quicker. And they can immediately deliver services to their end customers, cloud-like operations, this, this notion of zero touch remote management, which now with the last couple of months with this strange time that we're with COVID is, you know, turnout is becoming more and more relevant really as in remotely administrating and management of infrastructure that scales from just hundreds of nodes to thousands of nodes. It doesn't really matter with behind the scenes software updates, with global AI analytics and insights, and basically overall combined reduce the operational overhead when it comes to on-premises infrastructure by up to 75%, right? The other thing is support for any application, whether it's containerized, virtualized, or even bare metal applications. And the idea here is really consistent leveraging server-based storage that doesn't require any Nebulon-specific software on the server. So you get the full power of your application servers for your applications. Again, as the servers intended. And then the fourth benefit when it comes to smart infrastructure is, is of course doing this all at a lower cost and with better data center density. And that is really comparing it to three-tier architectures where you have your server, your SAN fabric, and then you have an external storage, but also when you compare it with hyper-converged infrastructure software, right, that is consuming resources of the application servers, think CPU, think memory and networking. So basically you get a lot more density with that approach compared to those architectures. >> Okay, I want to dig into some of that differentiation too, but what exactly do I buy from you? Do I buy a software subscription? Is that right? Can you explain that a little bit? >> Right. So basically the way we do this is it's really leveraging two key new innovations, right? So, and you see why I made the bridge to smart home technology, because the approach is civil, right? The one is, you know, the introduction of a cloud control plane that basically manage this on-premise application infrastructure, of course, that is delivered to customers as a service. The second one is, you know, a new infrastructure model that uses IOT endpoint technology, and that is embedded into standard application servers and the storage within this application servers. Let me add a couple of words to that to explain a little bit more, so really at the heart of smart infrastructure, in order to deliver this public cloud experience for any on-prem application is this cloud-based control plane, right? So we've built this, how we recommend our customers to use a public cloud, and that is built, you know, building your software on modern technologies that are vendor-agnostic. So it could essentially run anywhere, whether it is, you know, any public cloud vendor, or if we want to run in our own data centers, when regulatory requirements change, it's massively scalable and responsive, no matter how large the managed infrastructure is. But really the interesting part here, Dave, is that the customer doesn't really have to worry about any of that, it's delivered as a service. So what a customer gets from this cloud control plane is a single API end point, how they get it with a public cloud. They get a web user interface, from which they can manage all of their infrastructure, no matter how many devices, no matter where it is, can be in the data center, can be in an edge location anywhere in the world, they get template-based provisioning much like a marketplace in a public cloud. They get analytics, predictive support services, and super easy automation capabilities. Now the second thing that I mentioned is this server embedded software, the server embedded infrastructure software, and that is running on a PCIE based offload engine. And that is really acting as this managed IOT endpoint within the application server that I managed that I mentioned earlier. And that approach really further converges modern application infrastructure. And it really replaces the software defined storage approach that you'll find in hyper-converged infrastructure software. And that is really by embedding the data services, the storage data service into silicon within the server. Now this offload engine, we call that a services processing unit or SPU in short. And that is really what differentiates us from hyper-converged infrastructure. And it's quite different than a regular accelerator card that you get with some of the hyper-converged infrastructure offerings. And it's different in the sense that the SPU runs basically all of the shared and local data services, and it's not just accelerating individual algorithms, individual functions. And it basically provides all of these services aside the CPU with the boot drive, with data drives. And in essence provides you with this a separate fall domain from the service, so for example, if you reboot your server, the data plan remains intact. You know, it's not impacted for that. >> Okay. So I want to stay on that for just a second, Craig, if I could, I get very clear how you're different from, as Tobias said, the three-tier server SAN fabric, external array, the HCI thing's interesting because in some respects, the HCI has, you know, guys take Nutanix, they talk about cloud and becoming more friendly with developers and API piece, but what's your point of view Craig on how you position relative to say HCI? >> Yeah, absolutely. So everyone gets what three-tier architecture is and was, and HCI software, you know, emerged as an alternative to the three-tier architectures. Everyone I think today understands that data services are, you know, SDS is software hosted in the operating system of each HCI device and consume some amount of CPU, memory, network, whatever. And it's typically constrained to a hypervisor environment, kind of where we're most of that stuff is done. And over time, these platforms have added some monitoring capabilities, predictive analytics, typically provided by the vendor's cloud, right? And as Tobias mentioned, some HCIS vendors have augmented this approach by adding an accelerator to make things like compression and dedupe go faster, right? Think SimpliVity or something like that. The difference that we're talking about here is, the infrastructure software that we deliver as a service is embedded right into server silicon. So it's not sitting in the operating system of choice. And what that means is you get the full power of the server you bought for your workloads. It's not constrained to a hypervisor-only environment, it's OS agnostic. And, you know, it's entirely controlled and administered by the cloud versus with, you know, most HCIS is an on-prem console that manages a cluster or two on-prem. And, you know, think of it from a automation perspective. When you automate something, you've got to set up your playbook kind of cluster by cluster. And depending what versions they're on, APIs are changing, behaviors are changing. So a very different approach at scale. And so again, for us, we're talking about something that gives you a much more efficient infrastructure that is then managed by the cloud and gives you this full kind of operational model you would expect for any kind of cloud-based deployment. >> You know, I got to go back, you guys obviously have some three-part DNA hanging around and you know, of course you remember well, the three-part ASIC, it was kind of famous at the time and it was unique. And I bring that up only because you've mentioned a couple of times the silicon and a lot of people yeah, whatever, but we have been on this, especially, particularly with ARM. And I want to share with the audience, if you follow my breaking analysis, you know this. If you look at the historical curve of Moore's law with x86, it's the doubling of performance every two years, roughly, that comes out to about 40% a year. That's moderated down to about 30% a year now, if you look at the ARM ecosystem and take for instance, apple A15, and the previous series, for example, over the last five years, the performance, when you combine the CPU, GPU, NPU, the accelerators, the DSPs, which by the way, are all customizable. That's growing at 110% a year, and the SOC costs 50 bucks. So my point is that you guys are riding perfect example of doing offloads with a way more efficient architecture. You're now on that curve, that's growing at 100% plus per year. Whereas a lot of the legacy storage is still on that 30% a year curve, and so cheaper, lower power. That's why I love to buy, as you were bringing in the IOT and the smart infrastructure, this is the future of storage and infrastructure. >> Absolutely. And the thing I would emphasize is it's not limited to storage, storage is a big issue, but we're talking about your application infrastructure and you brought up something interesting on the GPU, the SmartNIC of things, and just to kind of level set with everybody there, there's the HCI world, and then there's this SmartNIC DPU world, whatever you want to call it, where it's effectively a network card, it's got that specialized processing onboard and firmware to provide some network security storage services, and think of it as a PCIE card in your server. It connects to an external storage system, so think Nvidia Bluefield 2 connecting to an external NVME storage device. And the interesting thing about that is, you know, storage processing is offloaded from the server. So as we said earlier, good, right, you get the server back to your application, but storage moves out of the server. And it starts to look a little bit like an external storage approach versus a server based approach. And infrastructure management is done by, you know, the server SmartNIC with some monitoring and analytics coming from, you know, your supplier's cloud support service. So complexity creeps back in, if you start to lose that, you know, heavily converged approach. Again, we are taking advantage of storage within the server and, you know, keeping this a real server based approach, but distinguishing ourselves from the HCI approach. Cause there's a real ROI there. And when we talked to folks who are looking at new and different ways, we talk a lot about the cloud and I think we've done a bit of that already, but then at the end of the day, folks are trying to figure out well, okay, but then what do I buy to enable this? And what you buy is your standard server recipe. So think your favorite HPE, Lenovo, Supermicro, whatever, whatever your brand, and it's going to come enabled with this IOT end point within it, so it's really a smart server, if you will, that can then be controlled by our cloud. And so you're effectively buying, you know, from your favorite server vendor, a server option that is this endpoint and a subscription. You don't buy any of this from us, by the way, it's all coming from them. And that's the way we deliver this. >> You know, sorry to get into the plumbing, but this is something we've been on and a facet of it. Is that silicon custom designed or is it pretty much off the shelf, do you guys add any value to it? >> No, there are off the shelf options that can deliver tremendous horsepower on that form factor. And so we take advantage of that to, you know, do what we do in terms of, you know, creating these sort of smart servers with our end point. And so that's where we're at. >> Yeah. Awesome. So guys, what's your sweet spot, you know, why are customers, you know, what are you seeing customers adopting? Maybe some examples you guys can share? >> Yeah, absolutely. So I think Tobias mentioned that because of the architectural approach, there's a lot of flexibility there, you can run virtualized, containerized, bare metal applications. The question is where are folks choosing to get started? And those use cases with our existing customers revolved heavily around virtualization modernization. So they're going back in to their virtualized environment, whether their existing infrastructure is array-based or HCI-based. And they're looking to streamline that, save money, automate more, the usual things. The second area is the distributed edge. You know, the edge is going through tremendous transformation with IOT devices, 5g, and trying to get processing closer to where customers are doing work. And so that distributed edge is a real opportunity because again, it's a more cost-effective, more dense infrastructure. The cloud effectively can manage across all of these sites through a single API. And then the third area is cloud service provider transformation. We do a fair bit of business with, you know, cloud service providers, CTOs, who are looking at trying to build top line growth, trying to create new services and, and drive better bottom line. And so this is really, you know, as much as a revenue opportunity for them as cost saving opportunity. And then the last one is this notion of, you know, bringing the cloud on-prem, we've done a cloud repatriation deal. And I know you've seen a little of that, but maybe not a lot of it. And, you know, I can tell you in our first deals, we've already seen it, so it's out there. Those are the places where people are getting started with us today. >> It's just interesting, you're right. I don't see a ton of it, but if I'm going to repatriate, I don't want to go backwards. I don't want to repatriate to legacy. So it actually does kind of make sense that I repatriate to essentially a component of on-prem cloud that's managed in the cloud, that makes sense to me to buy. But today you're managing from the cloud, you're managing on-prem infrastructure. Maybe you could show us a little leg, share a little roadmap, I mean, where are you guys headed from a product standpoint? >> Right, so I'm not going to go too far on the limb there, but obviously, right. So one of the key benefits of a cloud managed platform is this notion of a single API, right. We talked about the distributed edge where, you know, think of retailer that has, you know, thousands of stores, each store having local infrastructure. And, you know, if you think about the challenges that come with, you know, just administrating those systems, rolling out firmware updates, rolling out updates in general, monitoring those systems, et cetera. So having a single console, a cloud console to administrate all of that infrastructure, obviously, you know, the benefits are easy now. If you think about, if you're thinking about that and spin it further, right? So from the use cases and the types of users that we've see, and Craig talked about them at the very beginning, you can think about this as this is a hybrid world, right. Customers will have data that they'll have in the public cloud. They will have data and applications in their data centers and at the edge, obviously it is our objective to deliver the same experience that they gained from the public cloud on-prem, and eventually, you know, those two things can come closer together. Apart from that, we're constantly improving the data services. And as you mentioned, ARM is, is on a path that is becoming stronger and faster. So obviously we're going to leverage on that and build out our data storage services and become faster. But really the key thing that I'd like to, to mention all the time, and this is related to roadmap, but rather feature delivery, right? So the majority of what we do is in the cloud, our business logic in the cloud, the capabilities, the things that make infrastructure work are delivered in the cloud. And, you know, it's provided as a service. So compared with your Gmail, you know, your cloud services, one day, you don't have a feature, the next day you have a feature, so we're continuously rolling out new capabilities through our cloud. >> And that's about feature acceleration as opposed to technical debt, which is what you get with legacy features, feature creep. >> Absolutely. The other thing I would say too, is a big focus for us now is to help our customers more easily consume this new concept. And we've already got, you know, SDKs for things like Python and PowerShell and some of those things, but we've got, I think, nearly ready, an Ansible SDK. We're trying to help folks better kind of use case by use case, spin this stuff up within their organization, their infrastructure. Because again, part of our objective, we know that IT professionals have, you know, a lot of inertia when they're, you know, moving stuff around in their own data center. And we're aiming to make this, you know, a much simpler, more agile experience to deploy and grow over time. >> We've got to go, but Craig, quick company stats. Am I correct, you've raised just under 20 million. Where are you on funding? What's your head count today? >> I am going to plead the fifth on all of that. >> Oh, okay. Keep it stealth. Staying a little stealthy, I love it. Really excited for you. I love what you're doing. It's really starting to come into focus. And so congratulations. You know, you got a ways to go, but Tobias and Craig, appreciate you coming on The Cube today. And thank you for watching this Cube Conversation. This is Dave Vellante. We'll see you next time. (upbeat outro music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante semiconductors are the heart of technology innovation for decades technology improvements have marched the cadence of silicon advancements in performance cost power and packaging in the past 10 years the dynamics of the semiconductor industry have changed dramatically soaring factory costs device volume explosions fabulous chip companies greater programmability compressed time to tape out a lot more software content the looming presence of china these and other factors have changed the power structure of the semiconductor business chips today power every aspect of our lives and have led to a global semiconductor shortage that's been well covered but we've never seen anything like it before we believe silicon's success in the next 20 years will be determined by volume manufacturing capabilities design innovation public policy geopolitical dynamics visionary leadership and innovative business models that can survive the intense competition in one of the most challenging businesses in the world hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis it's our pleasure to welcome daniel newman in one of the leading analysts in the technology business and founder of futurum research daniel welcome to the program thanks so much dave great to see you thanks for having me big topic yeah i'll say i'm really looking forward to this and so here's some of the topics that we want to cover today if we have time changes in the semiconductor industry i've said they've been dramatic the shift to nofap companies we're going to talk about volume manufacturing those shifts that have occurred largely due to the arm model we want to cover intel and dig into that and what it has to do to to survive and thrive these changes and then we want to take a look at how alternative processors are impacting the world people talk about is moore's law dead is it alive and well daniel you have strong perspectives on all of this including nvidia love to get your thoughts on on that plus talk about the looming china threat as i mentioned in in the intro but daniel before we get into it do these topics they sound okay how do you see the state of the semiconductor industry today where have we come from where are we and where are we going at the macro level there are a lot of different narratives that are streaming alongside and they're not running in parallel so much as they're running and converging towards one another but it gradually different uh you know degrees so the last two years has welcomed a semiconductor conversation that we really hadn't had and that was supply chain driven the covid19 pandemic brought pretty much unprecedented desire demand thirst or products that are powered by semiconductors and it wasn't until we started running out of laptops of vehicles of servers that the whole world kind of put the semiconductor in focus again like it was just one of those things dave that we as a society it's sort of taken for granted like if you need a laptop you go buy a laptop if you needed a vehicle there'd always be one on the lot um but as we've seen kind of this exponentialism that's taken place throughout the pandemic what we ended up realizing is that semiconductors are eating the world and in fact the next industrial the entire industrial itself the complex is powered by semiconductor technology so everything we we do and we want to do right you went from a vehicle that might have had 50 or 100 worth of semiconductors on a few different parts to one that might have 700 800 different chips in it thousands of dollars worth of semi of semiconductors so you know across the board though yes you're dealing with the dynamics of the shortage you're dealing with the dynamics of innovation you're dealing with moore's law and sort of coming to the end which is leading to new process we're dealing with the foundry versus fab versus invention and product development uh situation so there's so many different concurrent semiconductor narratives that are going on dave and we can talk about any of them and all of them and i'm sure as we do we'll overlap all these different themes you know maybe you can solve this mystery for me there's this this this chip shortage and you can't invent vehicle inventory is so tight but yet when you listen to uh the the ads if the the auto manufacturers are pounding the advertising maybe they're afraid of tesla they don't want to lose their brand awareness but anyway so listen it's by the way a background i want to get a little bit academic here but but bear with me i want to introduce actually reintroduce the concept of wright's law to our audience we know we all know about moore's law but the earlier instantiation actually comes from theodore wright t.p wright he was this engineer in the airplane industry and the math is a little bit abstract to apply but roughly translated says as the cumulative number of units produced doubles your cost per unit declines by a fixed percentage now in airplanes that was around 15 percent in semiconductors we think that numbers more like 20 25 when you add the performance improvements you get from silicon advancements it translates into something like 33 percent cost cost declines when you can double your cumulative volume so that's very important because it confers strategic advantage to the company with the largest volume so it's a learning curve dynamic and it's like andy jassy says daniel there's no compression algorithm for experience and it definitely applies here so if you apply wright's law to what's happening in the industry today we think we can get a better understanding of for instance why tsmc is dominating and why intel is struggling any quick thoughts on that well you have to take every formula like that in any sort of standard mathematics and kind of throw it out the window when you're dealing with the economic situation we are right now i'm not i'm not actually throwing it out the window but what i'm saying is that when supply and demand get out of whack some of those laws become a little bit um more difficult to sustain over the long term what i will say about that is we have certainly seen this found um this fabulous model explode over the last few years you're seeing companies that can focus on software frameworks and innovation that aren't necessarily getting caught up in dealing with the large capital expenditures and overhead the ability to as you suggested in the topics here partner with a company like arm that's developing innovation and then and then um you know offering it uh to everybody right and for a licensee and then they can quickly build we're seeing what that's doing with companies like aws that are saying we're going to just build it alibaba we're just going to build it these aren't chip makers these aren't companies that were even considered chip makers they are now today competing as chip makers so there's a lot of different dynamics going back to your comment about wright's law like i said as we normalize and we figure out this situation on a global scale um i do believe that the who can manufacture the most will certainly continue to have significant competitive advantages yeah no so that's a really interesting point that you're bringing up because one of the things that it leads me to think is that the chip shortage could actually benefit intel i think will benefit intel so i want to introduce this some other data and then get your thoughts on this very simply the chart on the left shows pc shipments which peaked in in 2011 and then began at steady decline until covid and they've the pcs as we know have popped up in terms of volume in the past year and looks like they'll be up again this year the chart on the right is cumulative arm shipments and so as we've reported we think arm wafer volumes are 10x those of x86 volumes and and as such the arm ecosystem has far better cost structure than intel and that's why pat gelsinger was called in to sort of save the day so so daniel i just kind of again opened up this this can of worms but i think you're saying long term volume is going to be critical that's going to confer low cost advantages but in the in in the near to mid-term intel could actually benefit from uh from this chip shortage well intel is the opportunity to position itself as a leader in solving the repatriation crisis uh this will kind of carry over when we talk more about china and taiwan and that relationship and what's going on there we've really identified a massive gap in our uh in america supply chain in the global supply chain because we went from i don't have the stat off hand but i have a rough number dave and we can validate this later but i think it was in like the 30-ish high 30ish percentile of manufacturing of chips were done here in the united states around 1990 and now we're sub 10 as of 2020. so we we offshored almost all of our production and so when we hit this crisis and we needed more manufacturing volume we didn't have it ready part of the problem is you get people like elon musk that come out and make comments to the media like oh it'll be fixed later this year well you can't build a fab in a year you can't build a fab and start producing volume and the other problem is not all chips are the same so not every fab can produce every chip and when you do have fabs that are capable of producing multiple chips it costs millions of dollars to change the hardware and to actually change the process so it's not like oh we're going to build 28 today because that's what ford needs to get all those f-150s out of the lot and tomorrow we're going to pump out more sevens for you know a bunch of hp pcs it's a major overhaul every time you want to retool so there's a lot of complexity here but intel is the one domestic company us-based that has basically raised its hand and said we're going to put major dollars into this and by the way dave the arm chart you showed me could have a very big implication as to why intel wants to do that yeah so right because that's that's a big part of of foundry right is is get those volumes up so i want to hold that thought because i just want to introduce one more data point because one of the things we often talk about is the way in which alternative processors have exploded onto the scene and this chart here if you could bring that up patrick thank you shows the way in which i think you're pointing out intel is responding uh by leveraging alternative fat but once again you know kind of getting getting serious about manufacturing chips what the chart shows is the performance curve it's on a log scale for in the blue line is x86 and the orange line is apple's a series and we're using that as a proxy for sort of the curve that arm is on and it's in its performance over time culminating in the a15 and it measures trillions of operations per second so if you take the traditional x86 curve of doubling every 18 to 24 months that comes out roughly to about 40 percent improvement per year in performance and that's diminishing as we all know to around 30 percent a year because the moore's law is waning the orange line is powered by arm and it's growing at over a hundred percent really 110 per year when you do the math and that's when you combine the cpu the the the neural processing unit the the the xpu the dsps the accelerators et cetera so we're seeing apple use arm aws to you to your point is building chips on on graviton and and and tesla's using our list is long and this is one reason why so daniel this curve is it feels like it's the new performance curve in the industry yeah we are certainly in an era where companies are able to take control of the innovation curve using the development using the open ecosystem of arm having more direct control and price control and of course part of that massive arm number has to do with you know mobile devices and iot and devices that have huge scale but at the same time a lot of companies have made the decision either to move some portion of their product development on arm or to move entirely on arm part of why it was so attractive to nvidia part of the reason that it's under so much scrutiny that that deal um whether that deal will end up getting completed dave but we are seeing an era where we want we i said lust for power i talked about lust for semiconductors our lust for our technology to do more uh whether that's software-defined vehicles whether that's the smartphones we keep in our pocket or the desktop computer we use we want these machines to be as powerful and fast and responsive and scalable as possible if you can get 100 where you can get 30 improvement with each year and generation what is the consumer going to want so i think companies are as normal following the demand of consumers and what's available and at the same time there's some economic benefits they're they're able to realize as well i i don't want to i don't want to go too deep into nvidia arm but what do you handicap that that the chances that that acquisition actually happens oh boy um right now there's a lot of reasons it should happen but there are some reasons that it shouldn't i still kind of consider it a coin toss at this point because fundamentally speaking um you know it should create more competition but there are some people out there that believe it could cause less and so i think this is going to be hung up with regulators a little bit longer than we thought we've already sort of had some previews into that dave with the extensions and some of the timelines that have already been given um i know that was a safe answer and i will take credit for being safe this one's going to be a hard one to call but it certainly makes nvidia an amazing uh it gives amazing prospects to nvidia if they're able to get this deal done yeah i i agree with you i think it's 50 50. okay my i want to pose the question is intel too strategic to fail in march of this year we published this article where we posed that question uh you and i both know pat pretty well we talked about at the time the multi-front war intel is waging in a war with amd the arm ecosystem tsmc the design firms china and we looked at the company's moves which seemed to be right from a strategy standpoint the looking at the potential impact of the u.s government intel's partnership with ibm and what that might portend the us government has a huge incentive to make sure intel wins with onshore manufacturing and that looming threat from china but daniel is intel too strategic to fail and is pat gelsinger making the right moves well first of all i do believe at this current juncture where the semiconductor and supply chain shortage and crisis still looms that intel is too strategic to fail i also believe that intel's demise is somewhat overstated not to say intel doesn't have a slate of challenges that it's going to need to address long term just with the technology adoption curve that you showed being one of them dave but you have to remember the company still has nearly 90 of the server cpu market it still has a significant market share in client and pc it is seeing market share erosion but it's not happened nearly as fast as some people had suggested it would happen with right now with the demand in place and as high as it is intel is selling chips just about as quickly as it can make them and so we right now are sort of seeing the tam as a whole the demand as a whole continue to expand and so intel is fulfilling that need but where are they really too strategic to fail i mean we've seen in certain markets in certain uh process in um you know client for instance where amd has gained of course that's still x86 we've seen uh where the m1 was kind of initially thought to be potentially a pro product that would take some time it didn't take nearly as long for them to get that product in good shape um but the foundry and fab side is where i think intel really has a chance to flourish right now one it can play in the arm space it can build these facilities to be able to produce and help support the production of volumes of chips using arm designs so that actually gives intel and inroads two is it's the company that has made the most outspoken commitment to invest in the manufacturing needs of the united states both here in the united states and in other places across the world where we have friendly ally relationships and need more production capabilities if not in intel b and there is no other logical company that's us-based that's going to meet the regulator and policymakers requirements right now that is also raising their hand and saying we have the know-how we've been doing this we can do more of this and so i think pat is leaning into the right area and i think what will happen is very likely intel will support manufacturing of chips by companies like qualcomm companies like nvidia and if they're able to do that some of the market share losses that they're potentially facing with innovation challenges um and engineering challenges could be offset with growth in their fab and foundry businesses and i think i think pat identified it i think he's going to market with it and you know convincing the street that's going to be a whole nother thing that this is exciting um but i think as the street sees the opportunity here this is an area that intel can really lean into so i think i i think people generally would recognize at least the folks i talk to and it'll be interested in your thoughts who really know this business that intel you know had the best manufacturing process in in the world obviously that's coming to question but but but but for instance people say well intel's 10 nanometer you know is comparable to tsm seven nanometer and that's sort of overstated their their nanometer you know loss but but so so they they were able to point as they were able to sort of hide some of the issues maybe in design with great process and and i i believe that comes down to volume so the question i have then is and i think so i think patrick's pat is doing the right thing because he's going after volume and that's what foundry brings but can he get enough volume or does he need for inst for instance i mean one of the theories i've put out there is that apple could could save the day for intel if the if the us government gets apple in a headlock and says hey we'll back off on break up big tech but you got to give pat some of your foundry volume that puts him on a steeper learning curve do you do you worry sometimes though daniel that intel just even with like qualcomm and broadcom who by the way are competitors of theirs and don't necessarily love them but even even so if they could get that those wins that they still won't have the volume to compete on a cost basis or do you feel like even if they're numbered a number three even behind samsung it's good enough what are your thoughts on that well i don't believe a company like intel goes into a business full steam and they're not new to this business but the obvious volume and expansion that they're looking at with the intention of being number two or three these great companies and you know that's same thing i always say with google cloud google's not out to be the third cloud they're out to be one well that's intel will want to to be stronger if the us government and these investments that it's looking at making this 50 plus billion dollars is looking to pour into this particular space which i don't think is actually enough but if if the government makes these commitments and intel being likely one of the recipients of at least some of these dollars to help expedite this process move forward with building these facilities to make increased manufacturing very likely there's going to be some precedent of law a policy that is going to be put in place to make sure that a certain amount of the volume is done here stateside with companies this is a strategic imperative this is a government strategic imperative this is a putting the country at risk of losing its technology leadership if we cannot manufacture and control this process of innovation so i think intel is going to have that as a benefit that the government is going to most likely require some of this manufacturing to take place here um especially if this investment is made the last thing they're going to want to do is build a bunch of foundries and build a bunch of fabs and end up having them not at capacity especially when the world has seen how much of the manufacturing is now being done in taiwan so i think we're concluding and i i i correctly if i'm wrong but intel is too strategic to fail and and i i sometimes worry they can go bankrupt you know trying to compete with the likes of tsmc and that's why the the the public policy and the in the in the partnership with the u.s government and the eu is i think so important yeah i don't think bankruptcy is an immediate issue i think um but while i follow your train of thought dave i think what you're really looking at more is can the company grow and continue to get support where i worry about is shareholders getting exhausted with intel's the merry-go-round of not growing fast enough not gaining market share not being clearly identified as a leader in any particular process or technology and sort of just playing the role of the incumbent and they the company needs to whether it's in ai whether it's at the edge whether it's in the communications and service provider space intel is doing well you look at their quarterly numbers they're making money but if you had to say where are they leading right now what what which thing is intel really winning uh consistently at you know you look at like ai and ml and people will point to nvidia you look at you know innovation for um client you know and even amd has been super disruptive and difficult for intel uh of course you we've already talked about in like mobile um how impactful arm has been and arm is also playing a pretty big role in servers so like i said the market share and the technology leadership are a little out of skew right now and i think that's where pat's really working hard is identifying the opportunities for for intel to play market leader and technology leader again and for the market to clearly say yes um fab and foundry you know could this be an area where intel becomes the clear leader domestically and i think that the answer is definitely yes because none of the big chipmakers in the us are are doing fabrication you know they're they're all outsourcing it to overseas so if intel can really lead that here grow that large here then it takes some of the pressure off of the process and the innovation side and that's not to say that intel won't have to keep moving there but it does augment the revenue creates a new profit center and makes the company even more strategic here domestically yeah and global foundry tapped out of of sub 10 nanometer and that's why ibm's pseudonym hey wait a minute you had a commitment there the concern i have and this is where again your point is i think really important with the chip shortage you know to go from you know initial design to tape out took tesla and apple you know sub sub 24 months you know probably 18 months with intel we're on a three-year design to tape out cycle maybe even four years so they've got to compress that but that as you well know that's a really hard thing to do but the chip shortage is buying them time and i think that's a really important point that you brought out early in this segment so but the other big question daniel i want to test with you is well you mentioned this about seeing arm in the enterprise not a lot of people talk about that or have visibility on that but i think you're right on so will arm and nvidia be able to seriously penetrate the enterprise the server business in particular clearly jensen wants to be there now this data from etr lays out many of the enterprise players and we've superimposed the semiconductor giants in logos the data is an xy chart it shows net score that's etr's measure of spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal axis market share is not like idc market share its presence in the data set and as we reported before aws is leading the charge in enterprise architecture as daniel mentioned they're they're designing their own chips nitro and graviton microsoft is following suit as is google vmware has project monterey cisco is on the chart dell hp ibm with red hat are also shown and we've superimposed intel nvidia china and arm and now we can debate the position of the logos but we know that one intel has a dominant position in the data center it's got to protect that business it cannot lose ground as it has in pcs because the margin pressure it would face two we know aws with its annapurna acquisition is trying to control its own destiny three we know vmware has project monterey and is following aws's lead to support these new workloads beyond x86 general purpose they got partnerships with pansando and arm and others and four we know cisco they've got chip design chops as does hpe maybe to a lesser extent and of course we know ibm has excellent semiconductor design expertise especially when it comes to things like memory disaggregation as i said jensen's going hard after the data center you know him well daniel we know china wants to control its own destiny and then there's arm it dominates mobile as you pointed out in iot can it make a play for the data center daniel how do you see this picture and what are your thoughts on the future of enterprise in the context of semiconductor competition it's going to take some time i believe but some of the investments and products that have been brought to market and you mentioned that shorter tape out period that shorter period for innovation whether it's you know the graviton uh you know on aws or the aiml chips that uh with trainium and inferentia how quickly aws was able to you know develop build deploy to market an arm-based solution that is being well received and becoming an increasing component of the services and and uh products that are being offered from aws at this point it's still pretty small and i would i would suggest that nvidia and arm in the spirit of trying to get this deal done probably don't necess don't want the enterprise opportunity to be overly inflated as to how quickly the company's going to be able to play in that space because that would somewhat maybe slow or bring up some caution flags that of the regulators that are that are monitoring this at the same time you could argue that arm offering additional options in competition much like it's doing in client will offer new form factors new designs um new uh you know new skus the oems will be able to create more customized uh hardware offerings that might be able to be unique for certain enterprises industries can put more focus you know we're seeing the disaggregation with dpus and how that technology using arm with what aws is doing with nitro but what what these different companies are doing to use you know semiconductor technology to split out security networking and storage and so you start to see design innovation could become very interesting on the foundation of arm so in time i certainly see momentum right now the thing is is most companies in the enterprise are looking for something that's fairly well baked off the shelf that can meet their needs whether it's sap or whether it's you know running different custom applications that the business is built on top of commerce solutions and so intel meets most of those needs and so arm has made a lot of sense for instance with these cloud scale providers but not necessarily as much sense for enterprises especially those that don't want to necessarily look at refactoring all the workloads but as software becomes simpler as refactoring becomes easier to do between different uh different technologies and processes you start to say well arm could be compelling and you know because the the bottom line is we know this from mobile devices is most of us don't care what the processor is the average person the average data you know they look at many of these companies the same in enterprise it's always mattered um kind of like in the pc world it used to really matter that's where intel inside was born but as we continue to grow up and you see these different processes these different companies nvidia amd intel all seen as very worthy companies with very capable technologies in the data center if they can offer economics if they can offer performance if they can offer faster time to value people will look at them so i'd say in time dave the answer is arm will certainly become more and more competitive in the data center like it was able to do at the edge in immobile yeah one of the things that we've talked about is that you know the software-defined data center is awesome but it also created a lot of wasted overhead in terms of offloading storage and and networking security and that much of that is being done with general purpose x86 processors which are more expensive than than for instance using um if you look at what as you mentioned great summary of what aws is doing with graviton and trainium and other other tooling what ampere is doing um in in in oracle and you're seeing both of those companies for example particularly aws get isvs to write so they can run general purpose applications on um on arm-based processors as well it sets up well for ai inferencing at the edge which we know arms dominating the edge we see all these new types of workloads coming into the data center if you look at what companies like nebulon and pensando and and others are doing uh you're seeing a lot of their offloads are going to arm they're putting arm in even though they're still using x86 in a lot of cases but but but they're offloading to arm so it seems like they're coming into the back door i understand your point actually about they don't want to overplay their hand there especially during these negotiations but we think that that long term you know it bears watching but intel they have such a strong presence they got a super strong ecosystem and they really have great relationships with a lot of the the enterprise players and they have influence over them so they're going to use that the the the chip shortage benefits them the uh the relationship with the us government pat is spending a lot of time you know working that so it's really going to be interesting to see how this plays out daniel i want to give you the last word your final thoughts on what we talked about today and where you see this all headed i think the world benefits as a whole with more competition and more innovation pressure i like to see more players coming into the fray i think we've seen intel react over the last year under pat gelsinger's leadership we've seen the technology innovation the angstrom era the 20a we're starting to see what that roadmap is going to look like we've certainly seen how companies like nvidia can disrupt come into market and not just using hardware but using software to play a major role but as a whole as innovation continues to take form at scale we all benefit it means more intelligent software-defined vehicles it puts phones in our hands that are more powerful it gives power to you know cities governments and enterprises that can build applications and tools that give us social networks and give us data-driven experiences so i'm very bullish and optimistic on as a whole i said this before i say it again i believe semiconductors will eat the world and then you know you look at the we didn't even really talk about the companies um you know whether it's in ai uh like you know grok or grav core there are some very cool companies building things you've got qualcomm bought nuvia another company that could you know come out of the blue and offer us new innovations in mobile and personal computing i mean there's so many cool companies dave with the scale of data the uh the the growth and demand and desire for connectivity in the world um it's never been a more interesting time to be a fan of technology the only thing i will say as a whole as a society as i hope we can fix this problem because it does create risks the supply chain inflation the economics all that stuff ties together and a lot of people don't see that but if we can't get this manufacturing issue under control we didn't really talk about china dave and i'll just say taiwan and china are very physically close together and the way that china sees taiwan and the way we see taiwan is completely different we have very little control over what can happen we've all seen what's happened with hong kong so there's just so many as i said when i started this conversation we've got all these trains on the track they're all moving but they're not in parallel these tracks are all converging but the convergence isn't perpendicular so sometimes we don't see how all these things interrelate but as a whole it's a very exciting time love being in technology and uh love having the chance to come out here and talk with you i love the optimism and you're right uh that competition in china that's going to come from china as well xi has made it a part of his legacy i think to you know re-incorporate taiwan that's going to be interesting to see i mean taiwan ebbs and flows with regard to you know its leadership sometimes they're more pro i guess i should say less anti-china maybe that's the better way to say it uh and and and you know china's putting in big fab capacity for nand you know maybe maybe people look at that you know some of that is the low end of the market but you know clay christensen would say well to go take a look at the steel industry and see what happened there so so we didn't talk much about china and that was my oversight but but they're after self-sufficiency it's not like they haven't tried before kind of like intel has tried foundry before but i think they're really going for it this time but but now what are your do you believe that china will be able to get self-sufficiency let's say within the next 10 to 15 years with semiconductors yes i would never count china out of anything if they put their mind to it if it's something that they want to put absolute focus on i think um right now china vacillates between wanting to be a good player and a good steward to the world and wanting to completely run its own show the the politicization of what's going on over there we all saw what happened in the real estate market this past week we saw what happened with tech ed over the last few months we've seen what's happened with uh innovation and entrepreneurship it is not entirely clear if china wants to give the more capitalistic and innovation ecosystem a full try but it is certainly shown that it wants to be seen as a world leader over the last few decades it's accomplished that in almost any area that it wants to compete dave i would say if this is one of gigi ping's primary focuses wanting to do this it would be very irresponsible to rule it out as a possibility daniel i gotta tell you i i love collaborating with you um we met face to face just recently and i hope we could do this again i'd love to have you you back on on the program thanks so much for your your time and insights today thanks for having me dave so daniel's website futuram research that's three use in futurum uh check that out for termresearch.com uh the the this individual is really plugged in he's forward thinking and and a great resource at daniel newman uv is his twitter so go follow him for some great stuff and remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you do is search for breaking analysis podcast we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and by the way daniel thank you for contributing your your quotes to siliconangle the writers there love you uh you can always connect on twitter i'm at divalanto you can email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com appreciate the comments on linkedin and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time you

>> From the SiliconANGLE Media office in Boston, Massachusetts, it's theCUBE. Now here's your host, Dave Vellante. >> Hello everybody and welcome to this week's CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. It is Breaking Analysis, but first I'm coming to you from the floor of Cisco Live in Barcelona, and I want to talk about storage. Storage continues to be soft but there are some bright spots. I've been reporting on this for awhile now and I want to dig in and share with you some of the reasons why, maybe give you some forecasts as to what I think is going to happen in the coming months. And of course, we want to look into some of the ETR spending data, and try to parse through that and understand who's winning, who's losing, who's got the momentum, where are the tailwinds and headwinds. So the first thing I want to show you is let's get right into it. What this slide is showing here is a storage spending snapshot of net score. Now remember, net score in the ETR parlance is an indicator of momentum or spending velocity. Essentially every quarter, what ETR does is they go out to, in this case, 1100 respondents out of the 4500 dataset, and they ask them are you spending more or are you spending less. Essentially they subtract the less from the more and that constitutes net score. It's not that simple but for this purpose, that's what we're showing. Now you can see here on the left hand side, I'm showing all respondents out of 1161. You see the January survey net scores. You've got Rubrik, Cohesity, Nutanix, and Pure, and VMware vSAN are the top five. So Rubrik and Cohesity, very strong, and interesting, Rubrik was very strong last quarter. Cohesity not as strong but really shooting up. It kind of surprised me last quarter, Cohesity being a little low but they were early into the dataset and now they're starting to show what I think is really happening in the marketplace. That's a good indicator. But you can see 75 percent, 72 percent. Nutanix still very strong at 56 percent, driving that hyperconverge piece. You see Pure Storage at 44 percent, down a little bit, talk a little bit more about that in a moment. VMware vSAN, Veeam, et cetera, down the list. The thing about the left hand side and storage in general, you can see the softness. Only about one third of the suppliers are in the green, and that's a problem. If you compare this to security, probably three quarters are in the green. It's a much hotter segment. Now, look on the right hand side. The right hand side is showing what ETR calls GPP, giant, public, and private. You can see there's an N of 403. These are the largest, the very largest public and private companies, private company being a company like Mars Candy. And they say that they are the best indicators of spending momentum in the dataset. So really isolating on some of the large companies. Look what happens here. You can see Rubrik gets even stronger as does Cohesity, they're into the 80 percent range. That's really rarefied air, so very strong. You can see Nutanix drops down. It does better in the smaller companies, it appears. They drop down to 41 percent. Pure gets stronger in the GPP at 68 percent. You can see VMware's vSAN uptick to 45 percent. Nimble gets better, HPE's Nimble, to 54 percent. Dell drops down to 4.8 percent. HPE goes up to 33 percent. HPE was red in the left hand side. You can see Veeam drops, not surprising, Veeam in the biggest companies is not going to be as prevalent. We talked about that in our Breaking Analysis segment after the acquisition of Veeam. You can see NetApp bumps up a little bit but it's still kind of in that red zone. I also want to call your attention to Actifio. They're way down on the bottom in the left hand side, which kind of surprised me. And then I started digging into it because I know Actifio does better in the larger companies. In the right hand side, they pop up to 33 percent. It's only an N of three, but what I'm seeing in the marketplace is Actifio solving some really hard problems in database and copy data management. You're starting to see those results as well. But generally speaking, this picture is not great for storage, with the exception of a few players like Rubrik and Cohesity, Pure, Nutanix. And I'm going to get into that a little bit and try to explain what's going on here. The market's bifurcated. Primary storage has been on the back burner for awhile now, and I've been talking about that. The one exception to that is really been Pure. Little bit for Dell EMC coming back, we'll dig into that a little bit more but Pure has been the stand-out. They're even moderating lately, I'll talk about that some more. Secondary storage is where the market momentum is and you can see that with Rubrik and Cohesity. Again, we'll talk about that some more. Let me dig into the primary side. Cloud, as I've talked about in many Breaking Analysis segments is siphoning off demand from on-prem spend. The second big factor in storage has been there was such an injection of flash into the marketplace, it added headroom. Customers used to buy spindles to get performance, and they don't need to do that so much anymore because so much flash was pushed into the system. The third thing is you're still seeing in primary the consolidation dynamics play out with hyperconverge. So hyperconverge is the software defined bringing together of storage, compute, and networking into a single logical managed unit. That is taking share away from traditional primary storage. You're also seeing tactical NAND pricing be problematic for storage suppliers. You saw that with Pure again this past quarter. NAND pricing comes down, which you'd think would be a good thing from a component standpoint, which it is, but it also lowers prices of the systems. So that hurt Pure's revenue. Their unit volume was pretty good but you're seeing that sort of put pressure on prices, so ASPs are down, average system prices. Let's turn our attention to the secondary market for a moment. Huge injection of venture capital, like a billion dollars, half a billion dollars over the last year, and then another five billion just spent on the acquisition of Veeam. A lot of action going on there. You're seeing big TAM expansions where companies like Rubrik and Cohesity, who have garnered much of that VC spending, are really expanding the notion of data protection from back-up into data management, into analytics, into security, and things of that nature, so a much bigger emphasis on TAM expansion, of course as I talked about the M and A. Let's dig into each of these segments. The chart that I'm showing now really digs into primary storage. You can see here the big players, Pure, Dell EMC, HPE, NetApp, and IBM. And lookit, there's only company in the green, Pure. You can see they're trending down just a little bit from previous quarters but still far and away the company with most spending momentum. Again, here I'm showing net score measure of spending velocity back to the January '18 survey. You can see Dell EMC sort of fell and then is slowly coming back up. NetApp hanging in there, Dell EMC, HP, and NetApp kind of converging, and you can see IBM. IBM announced last quarter about three percent growth. I talked about that actually in September. I predicted that IBM storage would have growth because they synchronized their DS8000 high-end mainframe announcement to the z15, so you saw a little bit of uptick in IBM. Pure, as I said, 15 percent growth. I mean, if you're flat in this market or growing at three percent, you're doing pretty well, you're probably a share gainer. We'll see what happens in February when Dell EMC, HPE, and NetApp announce earnings. We'll update you at that time. So that's what you're seeing now. Same story, Pure outpacing the others, everybody else fighting for share. Let's turn our attention now to secondary storage. What I'm showing here is net score for the secondary storage players. I can't isolate on a drill down for secondary storage, last slide I could do on storage overall, but what I can show is pure plays. What's showing here is Rubrik, Cohesity, Veeam, Commvault, and Veritas. Five pure play, you can argue Veritas isn't a pure play, but I consider it a pure play data protection vendor. Look at Rubrik and Cohesity really shooting up to the right, 75 percent and 72 percent net scores, respectively. You see Veeam hanging in there. This is again, all respondents, the full 1100 dataset. Commvault announced last quarter it beat earnings but it's not growing. You can see some pressure there, and you can see Veritas under some pressure as well. You can see a net score really deep in the red, so that's cause for some concern. We'll keep watching that, maybe dig into some of the larger accounts to see how they're doing there. But you can see clear standouts with Rubrik and Cohesity. I want to look at hyperconverge now. Again, I can't drill into hyperconverge but what I can do is show some of the pure plays. So what this slide shows is the net score for some of the pure play hyperconverge vendors led by Nutanix. The relative newcomer here is vSAN with VMware. You can see Dell EMC, VxRail, and Simplivity. I would say this. A lot of the marketing push that you hear out of Dell and out of VMware says Nutanix is in big trouble, they're dying and so forth. Our data definitely shows something different. The one caution is, you can see Nutanix and larger accounts, not as strong. And you can see both vSAN and Dell EMC stronger in those larger accounts. Maybe that's kind of their bias and their observation space, but it's something that we've got to watch. But you can see the net scores here. Everybody's in the green because overall, this is a strong market. Everybody is winning. It's taking share as I said from primary. We're watching that very closely. Nutanix continues to be strong. Watching very carefully that competitive dynamic and the dynamics within those larger companies which are a bellwether. Now the big question that I want to ask here is can storage reverse the ten-year trend of the big cloud sucking sound that we have heard for the past decade. I've been reporting with data on how cloud generally has hurt that storage spend on-prem. So what I'm showing here in this slide is the net score for the cloud spenders. Many hundreds of cloud spenders in the dataset. What we're showing here is the net score, the spending velocity over the last 10 years for the leaders. You can see Dell EMC, the number one. NetApp, right there in terms of market share, IBM as well. I didn't show HPE because the slide got too busy but they'd be up there as well. So these are the big spenders, big on-prem players and you can see, well, it's up and down. The highs are lower and the lows tend to be lower. You can see on the latest surveys, maybe there's some upticks here in some of the companies. But generally speaking, the trend has been down. That siphoning away of demand from the cloud guys. Can that be reversed, and that's something that we're going to watch, so keeping an eye on that. Let me kind of summarize and I'll make some other comments here. One of the things we're going to watch here is Dell EMC, NetApp, and HPE earnings announcements in February. That's going to be a clear indicator. We'll look for what's happening with overall demand, what the growth trajectory looks like, and very importantly, what NAND pricing looks like. As a corollary to that, we're going to be watching elasticity. I firmly believe as prices go down, that more storage is going to bought. That's always been the case. Flash is still only about 20, 25, 30 percent of the market, about 30 percent of the spending, about 20 percent of the terabytes. But as prices come down, expect people to buy more. That's always been the case. If there's an elasticity of demand, it hasn't shown up in the earning statements, and that's a bit of a concern. But we'll keep an eye on that. We're also going to watch the cloud siphoning demand from on-prem spend. Can the big players and guys like Pure and others, new start-ups maybe, reverse that trend. Multi-cloud, there's an opportunity for these guys. Multi-cloud management, TAM expansion into new areas. Actually delivering services in the cloud. You saw Pure announce block storage in the cloud. So that's kind of interesting that we'll watch. Other players may be getting into the data protection space, but as it relates to the cloud, one of the things I'm watching very closely is the TAM expansion of the cloud players. What do I mean by that. Late last year, Amazon announced a broader set of products or services really in its portfolio. Let's watch for Amazon's moves and other big cloud players into the storage space. I fully expect they're going to want to get a bigger piece of that pie. Remember, much if not most of Amazon's revenue comes from compute. They really haven't awakened to the great storage opportunity that's out there. Why is that important. You saw this play out on-prem. Servers became a really tough market. Intel made all the money. Amazon is a huge customer of Intel, and Intel's getting a big piece of Amazon's EC2 business. That's why you see, in part, Amazon getting into its own chip design. I mean, in the server business, you're talking about low gross margin business. If you're in the 20s or low 30s, you're thrilled. Pure last quarter had 70 plus percent gross margins. It's been a 60 plus percent gross margin business consistently. You're going to see the cloud guys wake up to that and try to grab even more share. It's going to be interesting to see how the traditional on-prem vendors respond to that. Coming into last decade, you saw tons of start-ups but only two companies really reached escape velocity: Nutanix and Pure. At the beginning of the century, you saw Data Domain, Isilon, Compellent, 3PAR all went public. EqualLogic and LeftHand got taken out. There are a bunch of other companies that got acquired. Storage was really a great market. Coming into this decade, mid part of the decade, you had lots of VC opportunity here. You had Fusion and Violin, Intentury went public. They all flamed out. You had a big acquisition with SolidFire, almost a billion dollars, but really Pure and Nutanix were the only ones to make it, so the question is, are you going to see anyone reach escape velocity in the next decade, and where's that going to come from. The likely players today would be Cohesity and Rubrik. Those unicorns would be the opportunity. You could argue Veeam, I guess reached it, but hard to tell because Veeam's a private company. By escape velocity, we're talking large companies who go public, have a big exit in the public market and become transparent so we really know what's going on there. Will it come from a cloud or a cloud native play. We'll see. Are there others that might emerge, like a Nebulon or a Clumio. A company like Infinidat's doing well, will they hit escape velocity and do an IPO and again, become more transparent. That's again something that we're watching, but you're clearly seeing moves up the stack where there's a lot more emphasis in spending on cloud, cloud native. We clearly saw it with hyperconverge consolidation but up the stack towards the apps, really driving digital transformations. People want to spend less on heavy lifting like storage. They're always going to need storage. But is it going to be the same type of market it has been for the last 30 or 40 years, of great investment opportunities. We're starting to see that wane but we'll keep track of it. Thank you for watching this Breaking Analysis, this is CUBE Insights powered by ETR. This is Dave Vellante. We'll see you next time.