>>From around the globe. It's the cube with digital coverage of IBM. Think 20, 21 brought to you by IBM, >>Welcome back to IBM. Think at 2021, the virtual edition, my name is Dave Volante and you're watching the cubes continuous coverage of think 21. And right now we're going to talk about banking and the post isolation economy. I'm very pleased to welcome our next guests. Look at Wigley's the general manager global banking financial markets at IBM and John diagonal is the global CTO and vice president and distinguished engineer for banking and financial services. Gentlemen, welcome to the cube. That's my pleasure. Look at this current economic upheaval, it's quite a bit different from the last one. Isn't it? I mean, liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem for most banks these days. I mean, if anything, they're releasing loan loss reserves that they didn't need. What's from your perspective, what's the state of banking today and hopefully as we exit this pandemic soon. Okay. >>So, so Dave, I think, like you say, it's a, it's a, it's a state in a picture that, uh, in a significantly different from what people were expecting. And I, and I think some way, in some ways you're seeing the benefits of a number of the regulations that were put into, into place after the, you know, the financial crisis last time round, right? And therefore this time, you know, a health crisis did not become a financial crisis because I think the banks were in better shape. And also, you know, governments clearly have put worldwide a lot of liquidity into the, into the system. Um, I think if you look at it though, um, maybe two or three things ready to call out, firstly, there's a, there's a massive regional variation. So if you look at the U S banking industry, uh, it's extremely buoyant and I'll come back to that in a managing the way in which it's performing. >>Uh, you know, the banks that are starting to report that first quarter results are going to show a profitability that's significantly ahead of where they were last year. And probably some of those, some of that best performance for quite a long time, if you go into Europe, it's a completely different picture. I think the banks are extremely challenged at that. And I think you're going to see a much Bleaker outlook in terms of what those banks report, as far as Asia Pacific is concerned again, you know, because they did, they have come out of the pandemic much faster that consumer businesses back into growth. Again, I think they're showing some pretty buoyant up performance as far as, as far as banking performance is concerned. I think the beast that's particularly interesting. And I think Kim is a bit of a surprise to most, uh, is, is what we've seen in the U S right? >>And in the U S what's actually happened is, uh, the investment banking side of banking businesses has been doing better than they've ever done before. There's been the most unbelievable amount of acquisition activity. You've seen a lot of what's going on with the specs that's driving the res you know, deal based fee income for the banks, the volatility in the marketplace, meaning that trading income is much, much higher than it's ever been. And therefore the banks are very much seeing a profitability on that investment banking side. That was way ahead of what I think they were, they were expecting. Consumer business is definitely down. If you look at the credit card business, it's down, if you look at, uh, you know, lending activity, that's going down, going out, it's substantially less than where it was before. There's hardly any lending growth because the economy is flat at this moment in time. >>But again, the good news that, and I think this is a worldwide, but you're not just in the us. The good news here is that because of the liquidity and some of them are special mentions that government put out that there has not been, uh, the, the level of bankruptcies that people were expecting. Right. And that for most of the provisioning that the banks did, um, in expectation of non-performing loans has been, I think, a much more, much greater than what they're going to need, which is why you're starting to supervision is being released as well, which I kind of flattering, flattering the income flattering. I think going forward though, you're going to see a different picture. >>It's the, thank you for the clarification on the regional divergence is that you're right on, I mean, European central banks are, are not the same, the same position, uh, to, to affect liquidity, but is that nuance, is that variation across the globe? Is that, uh, is that a blind spot? Is that a, is that a, a concern, uh, or the other, other greater concerns, you know, inflation and, and, and the, the, the pace of the, the return to the economy. What are your thoughts on that? >>So I think, I think the, um, the, the, the concern, um, you know, as far as the European marketplace is concerned is, um, you know, whether the, the performance that in particularly, I don't think the level of Verition in there was quite as generous as we saw in other parts of the world. And therefore, um, you know, ease the issue around non-performing loans in, in Europe going to hold the European, uh, European banks back. And are they going to, you know, therefore constrained them under lending that they put into the economy. And that then, um, you know, reduces the level of economic growth that we see in Europe. Right. I think, I think that is certainly that is certainly a concern. Um, I would be surprised and I've been looking at, you know, forecasts that have been brought forward by various people around the world around infection. >>I would be surprised if inflation starts to become a genuine problem in the, in the kind of short to medium term. I think in the industry that are going to be two or three other things that are probably going to be more, you know, going to be more issues. Right. I think the first one, which is becoming top of mind for chief executives is this whole area around operational resiliency. So, you know, regulators universally are making very, very sure that banks do not have a technical debt or a complexity of legacy systems issue. They are. And, you know, the UK has taken the lead on this and they are going so far as even requiring non-executive directors to be liable. If banks are found to not have the right policies in place, this is not being followed by other regulators around the world. Right. So, so that is very much top of mind at this moment in time. >>So I think discretionary investment is going to be, uh, you know, to watch, um, uh, solving that particular problem. I think that that's one issue. I think the other issue is what the pandemic has shown is that, and, and, and this was very evident to me. I mean, I spent the last three years out in Singapore where, you know, banks have become very digital businesses. Right. When I came into the U S in my current role, it was somewhat surprising to me as to where the U S marketplace was in terms of digitization of banking. But if you look in the last 12 months, uh, you know, I think more has been achieved in terms of banks becoming digital businesses. And they've probably done in the last two or three years. Right. And then the real acceleration of that, uh, digitalization, which is going to continue to happen. But the downside of that has been that the threat to the banking industry from essentially fintechs and big decks has exactly, you know, it's really accelerated. Right, right. I mean, just to give you an example, pay Pat is the second largest financial services institution in the us, right. So that's become a real problem of my English. The banking industry is going to have to deal with, >>I want to come back to that, but now let's bring John into the conversation. Let's talk about the tech stack. Look, it was talking about whether it was resiliency going digital. We certainly saw with the pandemic remote work, huge, huge volumes of things like PPP and, and, and, and, and mortgages and with dropping rates, et cetera. So, John, how has the tech stack been altered in the past 14 months? >>Great question, Dave and it's top of mind for almost every single financial services firm, regardless of the sector within the overall industry, every single business has been taking stock of how they handled the pandemic and the economic conditions thereafter, and all of the business needs that were driven by the pandemic. In so many situations, firms were unable to service their clients or were not competitive in serving their clients. And as a result, they've had to do very deep, uh, uh, architectural, uh, transformation and digital transformation around their core platforms, their systems of analytics and their systems, their front end systems of engagement in terms of, uh, the core processing systems that many of these institutions, some in many cases, they're 50 years old. And with any 50 year old application platform, there are inherent limitations as an inflexibility and flexibility as an inability to innovate for the future as a speed of delivery issue. In, in other words, it can be very hard to accelerate delivery of new capabilities onto an aging platform. And so in every single case, um, institutions are looking to hybrid cloud and public cloud technology, and pre-packaged AI and pre-packaged solutions from an ISV ecosystem of software vendor ecosystem to say, as long as we can crack open many of these old monolithic cores and surround them with new digitization, new user experience that spans every channel and automation from the front to back of every interaction, that's where most institutions are prioritizing. Yep. >>Banks, aren't gonna migrate. Uh, they're gonna, they're going to build a abstraction layer. I want to come back to the disruption is so interesting. You had the Coinbase IPO last month, see Tesla and micro strategy. They're putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Jamie diamond says traditional banks are playing a smaller role in the financial system because of the new fintechs. Look at, you mentioned PayPal, the Stripe does Robin hood. You get the Silicon Valley giants have this dual disruptive disruption agenda, Apple, Amazon, even Walmart, Facebook. The question is, are traditional banks going to lose control of the payment systems? >>Yeah, I mean, I think to a large extent that is, that is already happened, right? Because I think if you look at, if you look at the experience in Asia, right, and you look at particularly organizations like iron financial, uh, you know, in India, you look at organizations like ATM the, you know, very substantial trends, particularly on the consumer payment side has actually moved, uh, away from the banks. And I think you're starting to see that in the West as well, right. With organizations like, you know, cloud. Now that's coming out with this, um, you know, pay, you know, buying out the later type of schemes. You've got and then, so you've got PayPal. And as you said, Stripe, uh, and, and others as well, but it's not just, um, you know, in the payment side. Right. I think, I think what's starting to happen is that, that are very core part of the banking business, you know, especially things like lending, for instance, where again, you are getting a number of these, um, fintechs and big, big tech companies entering the marketplace. >>And I, and I think the threat for the banks is, and this is not going to be small chunks of market share that you're going to actually lose. Right. It's, it's, it's actually, uh, it could actually be a Kodak moment. Let me give you an example. Uh, you know, you will have just seen that grab is going to be acquired by one of these facts for about $40 billion. I mean, this organization started like the Uber in Singapore. It very rapidly got into both the payment side, right? So it actually went to all of these mom and pop shops and it offered QR based, um, go out code based payment capabilities to these very small retailers. They were charging about half or a third of what MasterCard or visa were charging to run those payment routes. They took market share overnight. You look at the remittance business, right? >>They, they went into the remittance business, they set up these wallets in 28 countries around the ICR and region. They took huge chunks of business completely away from DBS, which is the local bank out there from Western union and all of these, all of these others. So, so I, I think it's a real threat. I think Jamie Dimon is saying what the banking industry has said always, right? Which is the reason we are losing is because the playing field is not even, this is not about playing fields and even right. All of these businesses have been subject to exactly the same regulation that the bank shop subject to regulations in Singapore and India, more onerous than maybe in other parts of the world. This is around the banking business, recognizing that this is a threat. And exactly, as John was saying, you got to get to delivering the customer experience. >>That juniors are wanting at the level of pasta they're prepared to pay. And you're not going to do that by purely shorting out the channels and having a cool app on somebody's smartphone. Right? If that smartphone is 48 by arcade processes and legacy systems, where can I apply? You know, like, like today, you know, you make a payment, your payment does not clear for five days, right? Whereas in Singapore I make a payment, the payment is instantaneously cleared, right? That's where the banking system is going to have to get to in order to get to that. You need to order the whole stack. And the really good news is there are many examples where this has been done very successfully by incumbent banks. You don't have to set up a digital bank on the side to do it. An incumbent bank could do it, and it can do it in a sense of a period of time, or does sense for level of investment. A lot of IBM's business across our consulting, as well as our, our technology stack is very much trying to do that with our clients. So I am personally very bullish about what the industry >>Yeah. I mean, taking friction out of the system sometimes with the case of crypto taking the middle person out of the system. But I think you guys are savvy. You understand that, you know, like, yeah, Jamie diamonds a couple of years ago said, he'd fire anybody doing crypto Janet Yellen and says, ah, I don't really get it. You know, Warren buffet. But I think as technology people, we look at it and say, okay, wait a minute. This is an interesting Petri dish. There's, there's fundamental technology here that has massive funding that is going to inform, you know, the future. I think, you know, big bags are gonna lean in some of them and others, others. Won't, uh, John, give you the last word here, >>But for sure they're leaning in. Uh, so to just, to, to, to think about, uh, uh, something that Likud said a moment ago, the reason these startups were able to innovate fast was because they didn't have the legacy. They didn't have the spaghetti lying around. They were able to be relentlessly laser focused on building new, using the API ecosystem, going straight to public and hybrid cloud and not worrying about everything that had been built for the last 50 years or so. The benefit for existing institutions, the incumbents is that they can use all of the same techniques and tools and hybrid cloud accelerators in terms. And we're not just thinking about, um, uh, retail banking here, your question around the industry, that disruption from Bitcoin, blockchain technologies, new ways of processing securities. It is playing out in every single securities processing and capital markets organization. Right now I'm working with several organizations right now, exactly on how to build custody systems, to take advantage of these non fungible digital assets. It's a hot, hot topic around which there's, uh, incredible, uh, appetite to invest an incredible appetite to innovate. And we know that the center of all these technologies are going to be cloud forward cloud ready, AI infused data infuse technologies. >>So I want to have you back. I wish you had more time. I want to talk about specs. I want to talk about NFTs. I want to talk about technology behind all this really great conversation and really appreciate your time. I'm sorry. We got to go. >>Thank you. Thanks so much indeed, for having us. >>Oh, really? Pleasure. Was mine. Thank you for watching everybody. This is Dave Volante for IBM. Think 2021. You're watching the cube.

>>from >>around the globe. It's the cube with digital >>Coverage of IBM think 2021 brought to you by IBM. >>Welcome back to IBM Think 2021 The virtual edition. My name is Dave Volonte and you're watching the cubes continuous coverage of think 21. And right now we're gonna talk about banking in the post isolation economy. I'm very pleased to welcome our next guest. Look at wag lee is the general manager, Global banking financial markets at IBM and john Degnan is the global ceo and vice president and distinguished engineer for banking and financial services. Gentlemen, welcome to the cube. >>Thank you. Yeah >>that's my pleasure. Look at this current economic upheaval. It's quite a bit different from the last one, isn't it? I mean liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem for most pecs these days. I mean if anything they're releasing loan loss reserves that they didn't need. What's from your perspective, what's the state of banking today and hopefully as we exit this pandemic soon. >>So so dave, I think, like you say, it's, you know, it's a it's a state and a picture that in a significantly different from what people were expecting. And I think some way, in some ways you're seeing the benefits of a number of the regulations that were put into into place after the, you know, the financial crisis last time around, right? And therefore this time, you know, a health crisis did not become a financial crisis, because I think the banks were in better shape. And also, you know, governments clearly have put worldwide a lot of liquidity into the, into the system. I think if you look at it though, maybe two or three things ready to call out firstly, there's a there's a massive regional variation. So if you look at the U. S. Banking industry, it's extremely buoyant and I'll come back to that in a minute in the way in which is performing, you know, the banks that are starting to report their first quarter results are going to show profitability. That's you know significantly ahead of where they were last year and probably some of the some of their best performance for quite a long time. If you go into europe, it's a completely different picture. I think the banks are extremely challenged out there and I think you're going to see a much bleaker outlook in terms of what those banks report and as far as Asia pacific is concerned again, you know because they they have come out of the pandemic much faster than consumer businesses back into growth. Again, I think they're showing some pretty buoyant performance as far as as far as banking performance is concerned. I think the piece that's particularly interesting and I think him as a bit of a surprise to most is what we've seen in the U. S. Right. And in the US what's actually happened is uh the investment banking side of banking businesses has been doing better than they've ever done before. There's been the most unbelievable amount of acquisition activity. You've seen a lot of what's going on with this facts that's driving deal raised, you know, deal based fee income for the banks. The volatility in the marketplace is meaning that trading income is much much higher than it's ever been. And therefore the banks are very much seeing a profitability on that investment banking side. That was way ahead of what I think they were. They were expecting consumer businesses definitely down. If you look at the credit card business, it's down. If you look at, you know, lending activity that's going down going out is substantially less than where it was before. There's hardly any lending growth because the economy clearly is flat at this moment in time. But again, the good news that, and I think this is a worldwide which are not just in us, the good news here is that because of the liquidity and and some of the special measures the government put out there, there has not been the level of bankruptcies that people were expecting, right. And therefore most of the provisioning that the banks did um in expectation of non performing loans has been, I think, a much more, much greater than what they're going to need, which is why you're starting to see provisions being released as well, which are kind of flattering, flattering the income, flattering the engine. I think going forward that you're going to see a different picture >>is the re thank you for the clarification on the regional divergence, is that and you're right on, I mean, european central banks are not the same, the same position uh to to affect liquidity. But is that nuances that variation across the globe? Is that a is that a blind spot? Is that a is that a concern or the other other greater concerns? You know, inflation and and and the the pace of the return to the economy? What are your thoughts on that? >>So, I think, I think the concern, um, you know, as far as the european marketplace is concerned is um you know, whether whether the performance that and particularly, I don't think the level of provisions in there was quite a generous, as we saw in other parts of the world, and therefore, you know, is the issue around non performing loans in in europe, going to hold the european uh european banks back? And are they going to, you know, therefore, constrain the amount of lending that they put into the economy and that then, um, you know, reduces the level of economic growth that we see in europe. Right? I think, I think that is certainly that is certainly a concern. Um I would be surprised and I've been looking at, you know, forecasts that have been put forward by various people around the world around inflation. I would be surprised if inflation starts to become a genuine problem in the, in the kind of short to medium term, I think in the industry that are going to be two or three other things that are probably going to be more, you know, going to be more issues. Right. I think the first one which is becoming top of mind for chief executives, is this whole area around operational resiliency. So, you know, regulators universally are making very very sure that banks do not have a technical debt or a complexity of legacy systems issue. They are and you know, the U. K. Has taken the lead on this and they are going so far as even requiring non executive directors to be liable if banks are found to not have the right policies in place. This is now being followed by other regulators around the world. Right. So so that is very much drop in mind at this moment in time. So I think discretionary investment is going to be put you know, towards solving that particular problem. I think that's that's one issue. I think the other issue is what the pandemic has shown is that and and and this was very evident to me and I mean I spent the last three years out in Singapore where you know, banks have become very digital businesses. Right? When I came into the U. S. In my current role, it was somewhat surprising to me as to where the U. S. Market place was in terms of digitization of banking. But if you look in the last 12 months, you know, I think more has been achieved in terms of banks becoming digital businesses and they've probably done in the last two or three years. Right. And that the real acceleration of that digitization which is going to continue to happen. But the downside of that has been that the threat to the banking industry from essentially fintech and big tex has exactly, it's really accelerated. Right, Right. Just to give you an example, Babel is the second largest financial services institutions in the US. Right. So that's become a real problem I think with the banking industry is going to have to deal with >>and I want to come back to that. But now let's bring john into the conversation. Let's talk about the tech stack. Look, it was talking about whether it was resiliency going digital, We certainly saw over the pandemic, remote work, huge, huge volumes of things like TPP and and and and and mortgages and with dropping rates, etcetera. So john, how is the tech stack Been altered in the past 14 months? >>Great question. Dave. And it's top of mind for almost every single financial services firm, regardless of the sector within the overall industry, every single business has been taking stock of how they handled the pandemic and the economic conditions thereafter and all of the business needs that were driven by the pandemic. In so many situations, firms were unable to service their clients or we're not competitive in serving their clients. And as a result they've had to do very deep uh architectural transformation and digital transformation around their core platforms. Their systems of analytics and their systems different end systems of engagement In terms of the core processing systems that many of these institutions, some in many cases there are 50 years old And with any 50 year old application platform there are inherent limitations. There's an in flex itty inflexibility. There's an inability to innovate for the future. There's a speed of delivery issue. In other words, it can be very hard to accelerate the delivery of new capabilities onto an aging platform. And so in every single case um institutions are looking to hybrid cloud and public cloud technology and pre packaged a ai and prepackaged solutions from an I. S. V. Ecosystem of software vendor ecosystem to say. As long as we can crack open many of these old monolithic cause and surround them with new digitalization, new user experience that spans every channel and automation from the front to back of every interaction. That's where most institutions are prioritizing. >>Banks aren't going to migrate, they're gonna they're gonna build an abstraction layer. I want to come back to the disruption is so interesting. The coin base I. P. O. Last month see Tesla and microstrategy. They're putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Jamie diamonds. Traditional banks are playing a smaller role in the financial system because of the new fin text. Look at, you mentioned Paypal, the striped as Robin Hood, you get the Silicon Valley giants have this dual disrupt disruption agenda. Apple amazon even walmart facebook. The question is, are traditional banks going to lose control of the payment systems? >>Yeah. I mean I think to a large extent that is that has already happened, right? Because I think if you look at, you know, if you look at the experience in ASia, right? And you look at particularly organizations like and financial, you know, in India, you look at organizations like A T. M. You know, very substantial chance, particularly on the consumer payments side has actually moved away from the banks. And I think you're starting to see that in the west as well, right? With organizations like, you know, cloud, No, that's coming out with this, you know, you know, buying out a later type of schemes. You've got great. Um, and then so you've got paper and as you said, strike, uh and and others as well, but it's not just, you know, in the payment side. Right. I think, I think what's starting to happen is that there are very core part of the banking business. You know, especially things like lending for instance, where again, you are getting a number of these Frontex and big, big tech companies entering the marketplace. And and I think the threat for the banks is this is not going to be small chunks of market share that you're going to actually lose. Right? It's it's actually, it could actually be a Kodak moment. Let me give you an example. Uh, you know, you will have just seen that grab is going to be acquired by one of these facts for about $40 billion. I mean, this organization started like the Uber in Singapore. It very rapidly got into both the payment site. Right? So it actually went to all of these moment pop shops and then offered q are based um, 12 code based payment capabilities to these very small retailers, they were charging about half or a third or world Mastercard or Visa were charging to run those payment rails. They took market share overnight. You look at the Remittance business, right? They went into the Remittance business. They set up these wallets in 28 countries around the Asean region. They took huge chunks of business completely away from DBS, which is the local bank out there from Western Union and all of these, all of these others. So, so I think it's a real threat. I think Jamie Dimon is saying what the banking industry has said always right, which is the reason we're losing is because the playing field is not even, this is not about playing fields. Been even write, all of these businesses have been subject to exactly the same regulation that the banks are subject to. Regulations in Singapore and India are more onerous than maybe in other parts of the world. This is about the banking business, recognizing that this is a threat and exactly as john was saying, you've got to get to delivering the customer experience that consumers are wanting at the level of cost that they're prepared to pay. And you're not going to do that by purely sorting out the channels and having a cool app on somebody's smartphone, Right? If that's not funny reported by arcade processes and legacy systems when I, you know, like, like today, you know, you make a payment, your payment does not clear for five days, right? Whereas in Singapore, I make a payment. The payment is instantaneously clear, right? That's where the banking system is going to have to get to. In order to get to that. You need to water the whole stack. And the really good news is that many examples where this has been done very successfully by incumbent banks. You don't have to set up a digital bank on the site to do it. And incumbent bank can do it and it can do it in a sensible period of time at a sensible level of investment. A lot of IBM s business across our consulting as well as our technology stack is very much trying to do that with our clients. So I am personally very bullish about what the industry >>yeah, taking friction out of the system, sometimes with a case of crypto taking the middle person out of the system. But I think you guys are savvy, you understand that, you know, you yeah, Jamie Diamond a couple years ago said he'd fire anybody doing crypto Janet Yellen and says, I don't really get a Warren Buffett, but I think it's technology people we look at and say, okay, wait a minute. This is an interesting Petri dish. There's, there's a fundamental technology here that has massive funding that is going to inform, you know, the future. And I think, you know, big bags are gonna lean in some of them and others, others won't john give you the last word here >>for sure, they're leaning in. Uh so to just to to think about uh something that lick it said a moment ago, the reason these startups were able to innovate fast was because they didn't have the legacy, They didn't have the spaghetti lying around. They were able to be relentlessly laser focused on building new, using the app ecosystem going straight to public and hybrid cloud and not worrying about everything that had been built for the last 50 years or so. The benefit for existing institutions, the incumbents is that they can use all of the same techniques and tools and hybrid cloud accelerators in terms And we're not just thinking about uh retail banking here. Your question around the industry that disruption from Bitcoin Blockchain technologies, new ways of processing securities. It is playing out in every single securities processing and capital markets organization right now. I'm working with several organizations right now exactly on how to build custody systems to take advantage of these non fungible digital assets. It's a hard, hard topic around which there's an incredible appetite to invest. An incredible appetite to innovate. And we know that the center of all these technologies are going to be cloud forward cloud ready. Ai infused data infused technologies >>Guys, I want to have you back. I wish I had more time. I want to talk about SPAC. So I want to talk about N. F. T. S. I want to talk about technology behind all this. You really great conversation. I really appreciate your time. I'm sorry. We got to go. >>Thank you. Thanks very much indeed for having us. It was a real pleasure. >>Really. Pleasure was mine. Thank you for watching everybody's day. Volonte for IBM think 2021. You're watching the Cube. Mhm.

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCube and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> When a piece of digital art sells for $69.3 million, more than has ever been paid for works, by Gauguin or Salvador Dali, making it created the third most expensive living artists in the world. One can't help but take notice and ask, what is going on? The latest craze around NFTs may feel a bit bubblicious, but it's yet another sign, that the digital age is now fully upon us. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon's CUBE insights, powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we want to take a look at some of the trends, that may be difficult for observers and investors to understand, but we think offer significant insights to the future and possibly some opportunities for young investors many of whom are fans of this program. And how the trends may relate to enterprise tech. Okay, so this guy Beeple is now the hottest artist on the planet. That's his Twitter profile. That picture on the inset. His name is Mike Winkelmann. He is actually a normal looking dude, but that's the picture he chose for his Twitter. This collage reminds me of the Million Dollar Homepage. You may already know the story, but many of you may not. Back in 2005 a college kid from England named Alex Tew, T-E-W created The Million Dollar Homepage to fund his education. And his idea was to create a website with a million pixels, and sell ads at a dollar for each pixel. Guess how much money he raised. A million bucks, right? No, wrong. He raised $1,037,100. How so you ask? Well, he auctioned off the last 1000 pixels on eBay, which fetched an additional $38,000. Crazy, right? Well, maybe not. Pretty creative in a way, way early sign of things to come. Now, I'm not going to go deep into NFTs, and explain the justification behind them. There's a lot of material that's been published that can do justice to the topic better than I can. But here are the basics, NFTs stands for Non-Fungible Tokens. They are digital representations of assets that exist in a blockchain. Now, each token as a unique and immutable identifier, and it uses cryptography to ensure its authenticity. NFTs by the name, they're not fungible. So, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum or other cryptocurrencies, which can be traded on a like-for-like basis, in other words, if you and I each own one bitcoin we know exactly how much each of our bitcoins is worth at any point of time. Non-Fungible Tokens each have their own unique values. So, they're not comparable on a like-to-like basis. But what's the point of this? Well, NFTs can be applied to any property, identities tweets, videos, we're seeing collectables, digital art, pretty much anything. And it's really. The use cases are unlimited. And NFTs can streamline transactions, and they can be bought and sold very efficiently without the need for a trusted third party involved. Now, the other benefit is the probability of fraud, is greatly reduced. So where do NFTs fit as an asset class? Well, they're definitely a new type of asset. And again, I'm not going to try to justify their existence, but I want to talk about the choices, that investors have in the market today. The other day, I was on a call with Jay Po. He is a VC and a Principal at a company called Stage 2 Capital. He's a former Bessemer VC and one of the sharper investors around. And he was talking about the choices that investors have and he gave a nice example that I want to share with you and try to apply here. Now, as an investor, you have alternatives, of course we're showing here a few with their year to date charts. Now, as an example, you can buy Amazon stock. Now, if you bought just about exactly a year ago you did really well, you probably saw around an 80% return or more. But if you want to jump in today, your mindset might be, hmm, well, okay. Amazon, they're going to be around for a long time, so it's kind of low risk and I like the stock, but you're probably going to get, well let's say, maybe a 10% annual return over the longterm, 15% or maybe less maybe single digits, but, maybe more than that but it's unlikely that any kind of reasonable timeframe within any reasonable timeframe you're going to get a 10X return. In order to get that type of return on invested capital, Amazon would have to become a $16 trillion valued company. So, you sit there, you asked yourself, what's the probability that Amazon goes out of business? Well, that's pretty low, right? And what are the chances it becomes a $16 trillion company over the next several years? Well, it's probably more likely that it continues to grow at that more stable rate that I talked about. Okay, now let's talk about Snowflake. Now, as you know, we've covered the company quite extensively. We watched this company grow from an early stage startup and then saw its valuation increase steadily as a private company, but you know, even early last year it was valued around $12 billion, I think in February, and as late as mid September right before the IPO news hit that Marc Benioff and Warren Buffett were going to put in $250 million each at the IPO or just after the IPO and it was projected that Snowflake's valuation could go over $20 billion at that point. And on day one after the IPO Snowflake, closed worth more than $50 billion, the stock opened at 120, but unless you knew a guy, you had to hold your nose and buy on day one. And you know, maybe got it at 240, maybe you got it at 250, you might have got it at higher and at the time you might recall, I said, You're likely going to get a better price than on day one, which is usually the case with most IPOs, stock today's around 230. But you look at Snowflake today and if you want to buy in, you look at it and say, Okay, well I like the company, it's probably still overvalued, but I can see the company's value growing substantially over the next several years, maybe doubling in the near to midterm [mumbles] hit more than a hundred billion dollar valuation back as recently as December, so that's certainly feasible. The company is not likely to flame out because it's highly valued, I have to probably be patient for a couple of years. But you know, let's say I liked the management, I liked the company, maybe the company gets into the $200 billion range over time and I can make a decent return, but to get a 10X return on Snowflake you have to get to a valuation of over a half a trillion. Now, to get there, if it gets there it's going to become one of the next great software companies of our time. And you know, frankly if it gets there I think it's going to go to a trillion. So, if that's what your bet is then you know, you would be happy with that of course. But what's the likelihood? As an investor you have to evaluate that, what's the probability? So, it's a lower risk investment in Snowflake but maybe more likely that Snowflake, you know, they run into competition or the market shifts, maybe they get into the $200 billion range, but it really has to transform the industry execute for you to get in to that 10 bagger territory. Okay, now let's look at a different asset that is cryptocurrency called Compound, way more risky. But Compound is a decentralized protocol that allows you to lend and borrow cryptocurrencies. Now, I'm not saying go out and buy compound but just as a thought exercise is it's got an asset here with a lower valuation, probably much higher upside, but much higher risk. But so for Compound to get to 10X return it's got to get to $20 billion valuation. Now, maybe compound isn't the right asset for your cup of tea, but there are many cryptos that have made it that far and if you do your research and your homework you could find a project that's much, much earlier stage that yes, is higher risk but has a much higher upside that you can participate in. So, this is how investors, all investors really look at their choices and make decisions. And the more sophisticated investors, they're going to use detailed metrics and analyze things like MOIC, Multiple on Invested Capital and IRR, which is Internal Rate of Return, do TAM analysis, Total Available Market. They're going to look at competition. They're going to look at detailed company models in ARR and Churn rates and so forth. But one of the things we really want to talk about today and we brought this up at the snowflake IPO is if you were Buffet or Benioff and you had to, you know, quarter of a dollars to put in you could get an almost guaranteed return with your late in the game, but pre IPO money or a look if you were Mike Speiser or one of the earlier VCs or even someone like Jeremy Burton who was part of the inside network you could get stock or options, much cheaper. You get a 5X, 10X, 50X or even North of a hundred X return like the early VCs who took a big risk. But chances are, you're not one of these in one of these categories. So how can you as a little guy participate in something big and you might remember at the time of the snowflake IPO we showed you this picture, who are these people, Olaf Carlson-Wee, Chris Dixon, this girl Sono. And of course Tim Berners-Lee, you know, that these are some of the folks that inspired me personally to pay attention to crypto. And I want to share the premise that caught my attention. It was this. Think about the early days of the internet. If you saw what Berners-Lee was working on or Linus Torvalds, in one to invest in the internet, you really couldn't. I mean, you couldn't invest in Linux or TCP/IP or HTTP. Suppose you could have invested in Cisco after its IPO that would have paid off pretty big time, for sure. You know, he could have waited for the Netscape IPO but the core infrastructure of the internet was fundamentally not directly a candidate for investment by you or really, you know, by anybody. And Satya Nadella said the other day we have reached maximum centralization. The main protocols of the internet were largely funded by the government and they've been co-opted by the giants. But with crypto, you actually can invest in core infrastructure technologies that are building out a decentralized internet, a new internet, you know call it web three Datto. It's a big part of the investment thesis behind what Carlson-wee is doing. And Andreessen Horowitz they have two crypto funds. They've raised more than $800 million to invest and you should read the firm's crypto investment thesis and maybe even take their crypto startup classes and some great content there. Now, one of the people that I haven't mentioned in this picture is Camila Russo. She's a journalist she's turned into hardcore crypto author is doing great job explaining the white hot defining space or decentralized finance. If you're just at read her work and educate yourself and learn more about the future and be happy perhaps you'll find some 10X or even hundred X opportunities. So look, there's so much innovation going around going on around blockchain and crypto. I mean, you could listen to Warren Buffet and Janet Yellen who implied this is all going to end badly. But while look, these individuals they're smart people. I don't think they would be my go-to source on understanding the potential of the technology and the future of what it could bring. Now, we've talked earlier at the, at the start here about NFTs. DeFi is one of the most interesting and disruptive trends to FinTech, names like Celsius, Nexo, BlockFi. BlockFi let's actually the average person participate in liquidity pools is actually quite interesting. Crypto is going mainstream Tesla, micro strategy putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets. We have a 2017 Jamie diamond. He called Bitcoin a tulip bulb like fraud, yet just the other day JPM announced a structured investment vehicle to give its clients a basket of stocks that have exposure to crypto, PayPal allowing customers to buy, sell, and Hodl crypto. You can trade crypto on Robin Hood. Central banks are talking about launching digital currencies. I talked about the Fedcoin for a number of years and why not? Coinbase is doing an IPO will give it a value of over a hundred billion. Wow, that sounds frothy, but still big names like Mark Cuban and Jamaat palliate Patiala have been active in crypto for a while. Gronk is getting into NFTs. So it goes to have a little bit of that bubble feel to it. But look often when tech bubbles burst they shake out the pretenders but if there's real tech involved, some contenders emerge. So, and they often do so as dominant players. And I really believe that the innovation around crypto is going to be sustained. Now, there is a new web being built out. So if you want to participate, you got to do some research figure out things like how PolkaWorks, make a call on whether you think avalanche is an Ethereum killer dig in and find out about new projects and form a thesis. And you may, as a small player be able to find some big winners, but look you do have to be careful. There was a lot of fraud during the ICO. Craze is your risk. So understand the Tokenomics and maybe as importantly the Pump-a-nomics, because they certainly loom as dangers. This is not for the faint of heart but because I believe it involves real tech. I like it way better than Reddit stocks like GameStop for example, now not to diss Reddit. There's some good information on Reddit. If you're patient, you can find it. And there's lots of good information flowing on Discord. There's people flocking to Telegram as a hedge against big tech. Maybe there's all sounds crazy. And you know what, if you've grown up in a privileged household and you have a US Education you know, maybe it is nuts and a bit too risky for you. But if you're one of the many people who haven't been able to participate in these elite circles there are things going on, especially outside of the US that are democratizing investment opportunities. And I think that's pretty cool. You just got to be careful. So, this is a bit off topic from our typical focus and ETR survey analysis. So let's bring this back to the enterprise because there's a lot going on there as well with blockchain. Now let me first share some quotes on blockchain from a few ETR Venn Roundtables. First comment is from a CIO to diversified holdings company who says correctly, blockchain will hit the finance industry first but there are use cases in healthcare given the privacy and security concerns and logistics to ensure provenance and reduce fraud. And to that individual's point about finance. This is from the CTO of a major financial platform. We're really taking a look at payments. Yeah. Do you think traditional banks are going to lose control of the payment systems? Well, not without a fight, I guess, but look there's some real disruption possibilities here. And just last comment from a government CIO says, we're going to wait until the big platform players they get into their software. And so that is happening Oracle, IBM, VMware, Microsoft, AWS Cisco, they all have blockchain initiatives going on, now by the way, none of these tech companies wants to talk about crypto. They try to distance themselves from that topic which is understandable, I guess, but I'll tell you there's far more innovation going on in crypto than there is in enterprise tech companies at this point. But I predict that the crypto innovations will absolutely be seeping into enterprise tech players over time. But for now the cloud players, they want to support developers who are building out this new internet. The database is certainly a logical place to support a mutable transactions which allow people to do business one-on-one and have total confidence that the source hasn't been hacked or changed and infrastructure to support smart contracts. We've seen that. The use cases in the enterprise are endless asset tracking data access, food, tracking, maintenance, KYC or know your customer, there's applications in different industries, telecoms, oil and gas on and on and on. So look, think of NFTs as a signal crypto craziness is a signal. It's a signal as to how IT in other parts of companies and their data might be organized, managed and tracked and protected, and very importantly, valued. Look today. There's a lot of memes. Crypto kitties, art, of course money as well. Money is the killer app for blockchain, but in the future the underlying technology of blockchain and the many percolating innovations around it could become I think will become a fundamental component of a new digital economy. So get on board, do some research and learn for yourself. Okay, that's it for today. Remember all of these episodes they're available as podcasts, wherever you listen. I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Please feel free to comment on my LinkedIn post or tweet me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. Don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action and data science. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Be well, be careful out there in crypto land. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time. (soft music)