>>From around the globe. It's the cube with digital coverage of IBM. Think 20, 21 brought to you by IBM, >>Welcome back to IBM. Think at 2021, the virtual edition, my name is Dave Volante and you're watching the cubes continuous coverage of think 21. And right now we're going to talk about banking and the post isolation economy. I'm very pleased to welcome our next guests. Look at Wigley's the general manager global banking financial markets at IBM and John diagonal is the global CTO and vice president and distinguished engineer for banking and financial services. Gentlemen, welcome to the cube. That's my pleasure. Look at this current economic upheaval, it's quite a bit different from the last one. Isn't it? I mean, liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem for most banks these days. I mean, if anything, they're releasing loan loss reserves that they didn't need. What's from your perspective, what's the state of banking today and hopefully as we exit this pandemic soon. Okay. >>So, so Dave, I think, like you say, it's a, it's a, it's a state in a picture that, uh, in a significantly different from what people were expecting. And I, and I think some way, in some ways you're seeing the benefits of a number of the regulations that were put into, into place after the, you know, the financial crisis last time round, right? And therefore this time, you know, a health crisis did not become a financial crisis because I think the banks were in better shape. And also, you know, governments clearly have put worldwide a lot of liquidity into the, into the system. Um, I think if you look at it though, um, maybe two or three things ready to call out, firstly, there's a, there's a massive regional variation. So if you look at the U S banking industry, uh, it's extremely buoyant and I'll come back to that in a managing the way in which it's performing. >>Uh, you know, the banks that are starting to report that first quarter results are going to show a profitability that's significantly ahead of where they were last year. And probably some of those, some of that best performance for quite a long time, if you go into Europe, it's a completely different picture. I think the banks are extremely challenged at that. And I think you're going to see a much Bleaker outlook in terms of what those banks report, as far as Asia Pacific is concerned again, you know, because they did, they have come out of the pandemic much faster that consumer businesses back into growth. Again, I think they're showing some pretty buoyant up performance as far as, as far as banking performance is concerned. I think the beast that's particularly interesting. And I think Kim is a bit of a surprise to most, uh, is, is what we've seen in the U S right? >>And in the U S what's actually happened is, uh, the investment banking side of banking businesses has been doing better than they've ever done before. There's been the most unbelievable amount of acquisition activity. You've seen a lot of what's going on with the specs that's driving the res you know, deal based fee income for the banks, the volatility in the marketplace, meaning that trading income is much, much higher than it's ever been. And therefore the banks are very much seeing a profitability on that investment banking side. That was way ahead of what I think they were, they were expecting. Consumer business is definitely down. If you look at the credit card business, it's down, if you look at, uh, you know, lending activity, that's going down, going out, it's substantially less than where it was before. There's hardly any lending growth because the economy is flat at this moment in time. >>But again, the good news that, and I think this is a worldwide, but you're not just in the us. The good news here is that because of the liquidity and some of them are special mentions that government put out that there has not been, uh, the, the level of bankruptcies that people were expecting. Right. And that for most of the provisioning that the banks did, um, in expectation of non-performing loans has been, I think, a much more, much greater than what they're going to need, which is why you're starting to supervision is being released as well, which I kind of flattering, flattering the income flattering. I think going forward though, you're going to see a different picture. >>It's the, thank you for the clarification on the regional divergence is that you're right on, I mean, European central banks are, are not the same, the same position, uh, to, to affect liquidity, but is that nuance, is that variation across the globe? Is that, uh, is that a blind spot? Is that a, is that a, a concern, uh, or the other, other greater concerns, you know, inflation and, and, and the, the, the pace of the, the return to the economy. What are your thoughts on that? >>So I think, I think the, um, the, the, the concern, um, you know, as far as the European marketplace is concerned is, um, you know, whether the, the performance that in particularly, I don't think the level of Verition in there was quite as generous as we saw in other parts of the world. And therefore, um, you know, ease the issue around non-performing loans in, in Europe going to hold the European, uh, European banks back. And are they going to, you know, therefore constrained them under lending that they put into the economy. And that then, um, you know, reduces the level of economic growth that we see in Europe. Right. I think, I think that is certainly that is certainly a concern. Um, I would be surprised and I've been looking at, you know, forecasts that have been brought forward by various people around the world around infection. >>I would be surprised if inflation starts to become a genuine problem in the, in the kind of short to medium term. I think in the industry that are going to be two or three other things that are probably going to be more, you know, going to be more issues. Right. I think the first one, which is becoming top of mind for chief executives is this whole area around operational resiliency. So, you know, regulators universally are making very, very sure that banks do not have a technical debt or a complexity of legacy systems issue. They are. And, you know, the UK has taken the lead on this and they are going so far as even requiring non-executive directors to be liable. If banks are found to not have the right policies in place, this is not being followed by other regulators around the world. Right. So, so that is very much top of mind at this moment in time. >>So I think discretionary investment is going to be, uh, you know, to watch, um, uh, solving that particular problem. I think that that's one issue. I think the other issue is what the pandemic has shown is that, and, and, and this was very evident to me. I mean, I spent the last three years out in Singapore where, you know, banks have become very digital businesses. Right. When I came into the U S in my current role, it was somewhat surprising to me as to where the U S marketplace was in terms of digitization of banking. But if you look in the last 12 months, uh, you know, I think more has been achieved in terms of banks becoming digital businesses. And they've probably done in the last two or three years. Right. And then the real acceleration of that, uh, digitalization, which is going to continue to happen. But the downside of that has been that the threat to the banking industry from essentially fintechs and big decks has exactly, you know, it's really accelerated. Right, right. I mean, just to give you an example, pay Pat is the second largest financial services institution in the us, right. So that's become a real problem of my English. The banking industry is going to have to deal with, >>I want to come back to that, but now let's bring John into the conversation. Let's talk about the tech stack. Look, it was talking about whether it was resiliency going digital. We certainly saw with the pandemic remote work, huge, huge volumes of things like PPP and, and, and, and, and mortgages and with dropping rates, et cetera. So, John, how has the tech stack been altered in the past 14 months? >>Great question, Dave and it's top of mind for almost every single financial services firm, regardless of the sector within the overall industry, every single business has been taking stock of how they handled the pandemic and the economic conditions thereafter, and all of the business needs that were driven by the pandemic. In so many situations, firms were unable to service their clients or were not competitive in serving their clients. And as a result, they've had to do very deep, uh, uh, architectural, uh, transformation and digital transformation around their core platforms, their systems of analytics and their systems, their front end systems of engagement in terms of, uh, the core processing systems that many of these institutions, some in many cases, they're 50 years old. And with any 50 year old application platform, there are inherent limitations as an inflexibility and flexibility as an inability to innovate for the future as a speed of delivery issue. In, in other words, it can be very hard to accelerate delivery of new capabilities onto an aging platform. And so in every single case, um, institutions are looking to hybrid cloud and public cloud technology, and pre-packaged AI and pre-packaged solutions from an ISV ecosystem of software vendor ecosystem to say, as long as we can crack open many of these old monolithic cores and surround them with new digitization, new user experience that spans every channel and automation from the front to back of every interaction, that's where most institutions are prioritizing. Yep. >>Banks, aren't gonna migrate. Uh, they're gonna, they're going to build a abstraction layer. I want to come back to the disruption is so interesting. You had the Coinbase IPO last month, see Tesla and micro strategy. They're putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Jamie diamond says traditional banks are playing a smaller role in the financial system because of the new fintechs. Look at, you mentioned PayPal, the Stripe does Robin hood. You get the Silicon Valley giants have this dual disruptive disruption agenda, Apple, Amazon, even Walmart, Facebook. The question is, are traditional banks going to lose control of the payment systems? >>Yeah, I mean, I think to a large extent that is, that is already happened, right? Because I think if you look at, if you look at the experience in Asia, right, and you look at particularly organizations like iron financial, uh, you know, in India, you look at organizations like ATM the, you know, very substantial trends, particularly on the consumer payment side has actually moved, uh, away from the banks. And I think you're starting to see that in the West as well, right. With organizations like, you know, cloud. Now that's coming out with this, um, you know, pay, you know, buying out the later type of schemes. You've got and then, so you've got PayPal. And as you said, Stripe, uh, and, and others as well, but it's not just, um, you know, in the payment side. Right. I think, I think what's starting to happen is that, that are very core part of the banking business, you know, especially things like lending, for instance, where again, you are getting a number of these, um, fintechs and big, big tech companies entering the marketplace. >>And I, and I think the threat for the banks is, and this is not going to be small chunks of market share that you're going to actually lose. Right. It's, it's, it's actually, uh, it could actually be a Kodak moment. Let me give you an example. Uh, you know, you will have just seen that grab is going to be acquired by one of these facts for about $40 billion. I mean, this organization started like the Uber in Singapore. It very rapidly got into both the payment side, right? So it actually went to all of these mom and pop shops and it offered QR based, um, go out code based payment capabilities to these very small retailers. They were charging about half or a third of what MasterCard or visa were charging to run those payment routes. They took market share overnight. You look at the remittance business, right? >>They, they went into the remittance business, they set up these wallets in 28 countries around the ICR and region. They took huge chunks of business completely away from DBS, which is the local bank out there from Western union and all of these, all of these others. So, so I, I think it's a real threat. I think Jamie Dimon is saying what the banking industry has said always, right? Which is the reason we are losing is because the playing field is not even, this is not about playing fields and even right. All of these businesses have been subject to exactly the same regulation that the bank shop subject to regulations in Singapore and India, more onerous than maybe in other parts of the world. This is around the banking business, recognizing that this is a threat. And exactly, as John was saying, you got to get to delivering the customer experience. >>That juniors are wanting at the level of pasta they're prepared to pay. And you're not going to do that by purely shorting out the channels and having a cool app on somebody's smartphone. Right? If that smartphone is 48 by arcade processes and legacy systems, where can I apply? You know, like, like today, you know, you make a payment, your payment does not clear for five days, right? Whereas in Singapore I make a payment, the payment is instantaneously cleared, right? That's where the banking system is going to have to get to in order to get to that. You need to order the whole stack. And the really good news is there are many examples where this has been done very successfully by incumbent banks. You don't have to set up a digital bank on the side to do it. An incumbent bank could do it, and it can do it in a sense of a period of time, or does sense for level of investment. A lot of IBM's business across our consulting, as well as our, our technology stack is very much trying to do that with our clients. So I am personally very bullish about what the industry >>Yeah. I mean, taking friction out of the system sometimes with the case of crypto taking the middle person out of the system. But I think you guys are savvy. You understand that, you know, like, yeah, Jamie diamonds a couple of years ago said, he'd fire anybody doing crypto Janet Yellen and says, ah, I don't really get it. You know, Warren buffet. But I think as technology people, we look at it and say, okay, wait a minute. This is an interesting Petri dish. There's, there's fundamental technology here that has massive funding that is going to inform, you know, the future. I think, you know, big bags are gonna lean in some of them and others, others. Won't, uh, John, give you the last word here, >>But for sure they're leaning in. Uh, so to just, to, to, to think about, uh, uh, something that Likud said a moment ago, the reason these startups were able to innovate fast was because they didn't have the legacy. They didn't have the spaghetti lying around. They were able to be relentlessly laser focused on building new, using the API ecosystem, going straight to public and hybrid cloud and not worrying about everything that had been built for the last 50 years or so. The benefit for existing institutions, the incumbents is that they can use all of the same techniques and tools and hybrid cloud accelerators in terms. And we're not just thinking about, um, uh, retail banking here, your question around the industry, that disruption from Bitcoin, blockchain technologies, new ways of processing securities. It is playing out in every single securities processing and capital markets organization. Right now I'm working with several organizations right now, exactly on how to build custody systems, to take advantage of these non fungible digital assets. It's a hot, hot topic around which there's, uh, incredible, uh, appetite to invest an incredible appetite to innovate. And we know that the center of all these technologies are going to be cloud forward cloud ready, AI infused data infuse technologies. >>So I want to have you back. I wish you had more time. I want to talk about specs. I want to talk about NFTs. I want to talk about technology behind all this really great conversation and really appreciate your time. I'm sorry. We got to go. >>Thank you. Thanks so much indeed, for having us. >>Oh, really? Pleasure. Was mine. Thank you for watching everybody. This is Dave Volante for IBM. Think 2021. You're watching the cube.