from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante recent survey data from etr shows that enterprise tech spending is tracking with projected u.s gdp growth at six to seven percent this year many markers continue to point the way to a strong recovery including hiring trends and the loosening of frozen it project budgets however skills shortages are blocking progress at some companies which bodes well for an increased reliance on external i.t services moreover while there's much to talk about well there's much talk about the rotation out of work from home plays and stocks such as video conferencing vdi and other remote worker tech we see organizations still trying to figure out the ideal balance between funding headquarter investments that have been neglected and getting hybrid work right in particular the talent gap combined with a digital mandate means companies face some tough decisions as to how to fund the future while serving existing customers and transforming culturally hello everyone and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we welcome back eric porter bradley of etr who will share fresh data perspectives and insights from the latest survey data eric great to see you welcome thank you very much dave always good to see you and happy to be on the show again okay we're going to share some macro data and then we're going to dig into some highlights from etr's most recent march covid survey and also the latest april data so eric the first chart that we want to show it shows cio and it buyer responses to expected i.t spend for each quarter of 2021 versus 2020. and you can see here a steady quarterly improvement eric what are the key takeaways from your perspective sure well first of all for everyone out there this particular survey had a record-setting number of uh participation we had uh 1 500 i.t decision makers participate and we had over half of the fortune 500 and over a fifth of the global 1000. so it was a really good survey this is the seventh iteration of the covet impact survey specifically and this is going to transition to an over large macro survey going forward so we could continue it and you're 100 right what we've been tracking here since uh march of last year was how is spending being impacted because of covid where is it shifting and what we're seeing now finally is that there is a real re-acceleration in spend i know we've been a little bit more cautious than some of the other peers out there that just early on slapped an eight or a nine percent number but what we're seeing is right now it's at a midpoint of over six uh about six point seven percent and that is accelerating so uh we are still hopeful that that will continue uh really that spending is going to be in the second half of the year as you can see on the left part of this chart that we're looking at uh it was about 1.7 versus 3 for q1 spending year over year so that is starting to accelerate through the back half you know i think it's prudent to be be cautious relative because normally you'd say okay tech is going to grow a couple of points higher than gdp but it's it's really so hard to predict this year okay the next chart is here that we want to show you is we ask respondents to indicate what strategies they're employing in the short term as a result of coronavirus and you can see a few things that i'll call out and then i'll ask eric to chime in first there's been no meaningful change of course no surprise in tactics like remote work and halting travel however we're seeing very positive trends in other areas trending downward like hiring freezes and freezing i.t deployments downward trend in layoffs and we also see an increase in the acceleration of new i.t deployments and in hiring eric what are your key takeaways well first of all i think it's important to point out here that uh we're also capturing that people believe remote work productivity is still increasing now the trajectory might be coming down a little bit but that is really key i think to the backdrop of what's happening here so people have a perception that productivity of remote work is better than hybrid work and that's from the i.t decision makers themselves um but what we're seeing here is that uh most importantly these organizations are citing plans to increase hiring and that's something that i think is really important to point out it's showing a real thawing and to your point in right in the beginning of the intro uh we are seeing deployments stabilize versus prior survey levels which means early on they had no plans to launch new tech deployments then they said nope we're going to start and now that's stalling and i think it's exactly right what you said is there's an i.t skills shortage so people want to continue to do i.t deployments because they have to support work from home and a hybrid back return to the office but they just don't have the skills to do so and i think that's really probably the most important takeaway from this chart um is that stalling and to really ask why it's stalling yeah so we're going to get into that for sure and and i think that's a really key point is that that that accelerating it deployments is some it looks like it's hit a wall in the survey and so but before before we get deep into the skills let's let's take a look at this next chart and we're asking people here how a return to the new normal if you will and back to offices is going to change spending with on-prem architectures and applications and so the first two bars they're cloud-friendly if you add them up at 63 percent of the respondents say that either they'll stay in the cloud for the most part or they're going to lower the on-prem spend when they go back to the office the next three bars are on-prem friendly if you add those up as 29 percent of the respondents say their on-prem spend is going to bounce back to pre-covert levels or actually increase and of course 12 percent of that number by the way say they they've never altered their on-prem spend so eric no surprise but this bodes well for cloud but but it it isn't it also a positive for on-prem this we've had this dual funding premise meaning cloud continues to grow but neglected data center spend also gets a boost what's your thoughts you know really it's interesting it's people are spending on all fronts you and i were talking in a prep it's like you know we're we're in battle and i've got naval i've got you know air i've got land uh i've got to spend on cloud and digital transformation but i also have to spend for on-prem uh the hybrid work is here and it needs to be supported so this spending is going to increase you know when you look at this chart you're going to see though that roughly 36 percent of all respondents say that their spending is going to remain mostly on cloud so this you know that is still the clear direction uh digital transformation is still happening covid accelerated it greatly um you know you and i as journalists and researchers already know this is where the puck is going uh but spend has always lagged a little bit behind because it just takes some time to get there you know inversely 27 said that their on-prem spending will decrease so when you look at those two i still think that the trend is the friend for cloud spending uh even though yes they do have to continue spending on hybrid some of it's been neglected there are refresh cycles coming up so overall it just points to more and more spending right now it really does seem to be a very strong backdrop for it growth so i want to talk a little bit about the etr taxonomy before we bring up the next chart we get a lot of questions about this and of course when you do a massive survey like you're doing you have to have consistency for time series so you have to really think through what that what the buckets look like if you will so this next chart takes a look at the etr taxonomy and it breaks it down into simple to understand terms so the green is the portion of spending on a vendor's tech within a category that is accelerating and the red is the portion that is decelerating so eric what are the key messages in this data well first of all dave thank you so much for pointing that out we used to do uh just what we call a next a net score it's a proprietary formula that we use to determine the overall velocity of spending some people found it confusing um our data scientists decided to break this sector breakdown into what you said which is really more of a mode analysis in that sector how many of the vendors are increasing versus decreasing so again i just appreciate you bringing that up and allowing us to explain the the the reasoning behind our analysis there but what we're seeing here uh goes back to something you and i did last year when we did our predictions and that was that it services and consulting was going to have a true rebound in 2021 and that's what this is showing right here so in this chart you're going to see that consulting and services are really continuing their recovery uh 2020 had a lot of declines and they have the biggest sector over year-over-year acceleration sector-wise the other thing to point out in this which we'll get to again later is that the inverse analysis is true for video conferencing uh we will get to that so i'm going to leave a little bit of ammunition behind for that one but what we're seeing here is it consulting services being the real favorable and video conferencing uh having a little bit more trouble great okay and then let's let's take a look at that services piece and this next chart really is a drill down into that space and emphasizes eric what you were just talking about and we saw this in ibm's earnings where still more than 60 percent of ibm's business comes from services and the company beat earnings you know in part due to services outperforming expectations i think it had a somewhat easier compare and some of this pen-up demand that we've been talking about bodes well for ibm and in other services companies it's not just ibm right eric no it's not but again i'm going to point out that you and i did point out ibm in our in our predictions one we did in late december so it is nice to see one of the reasons we don't have a more favorable rating on ibm at the moment is because they are in the the process of spinning out uh this large unit and so there's a little bit of you know corporate action there that keeps us off on the sideline but i would also want to point out here uh tata infosys and cognizant because they're seeing year-over-year acceleration in both it consulting and outsourced i t services so we break those down separately and those are the three names that are seeing acceleration in both of those so again a tata emphasis and cognizant are all looking pretty well positioned as well so we've been talking a little bit about this skill shortage and this is what's i think so hard for for forecasters um is that you know on the one hand there's a lot of pent up demand you know it's like scott gottlieb said it's like woodstock coming out of the covid uh but on the other hand if you have a talent gap you've got to rely on external services so there's a learning curve there's a ramp up it's an external company and so it takes time to put those together so so this data that we're going to show you next uh is is really important in my view and ties what we're saying we're saying at the top it asks respondents to comment on their staffing plans the light blue is we're increasing staff the gray is no change in the magenta or whatever whatever color that is that sort of purplish color anyway that color is is decreasing and the picture is very positive across the board full-time staff offshoring contract employees outsourced professional services all up trending upwards and this eric is more evidence of the services bounce back yeah it certainly is david and what happened is when we caught this trend we decided to go one level deeper and say all right we're seeing this but we need to know why and that's what we always try to do here data will tell you what's happening it doesn't always tell you why and that's one of the things that etr really tries to dig in with through the insights interviews panels and also going direct with these more custom survey questions uh so in this instance i think the real takeaway is that 30 of the respondents said that their outsourced and managed services are going to increase over the next three months that's really powerful that's a large portion of organizations in a very short time period so we're capturing that this acceleration is happening right now and it will be happening in real time and i don't see it slowing down you and i are speaking about we have to you know increase cloud spend we have to increase hybrid spend there are refresh cycles coming up and there's just a real skill shortage so this is a long-term setup that bodes very well for it services and consulting you know eric when i came out of college i somebody told me read read read read as much as you can and and so i would and they said read the wall street journal every day and i so i did it and i would read the tech magazines and back then it was all paper and what happens is you begin to connect the dots and so the reason i bring that up is because i've now been had taken a bath in the etr data for the better part of two years and i'm beginning to be able to connect the dots you know the data is not always predictive but many many times it is and so this next data gets into the fun stuff where we name names a lot of times people don't like it because the marketing people and organizations say well the data's wrong of course that's the first thing they do is attack the data but you and i know we've made some really great calls work from home for sure you're talking about the services bounce back uh we certainly saw the rise of crowdstrike octa zscaler well before people were talking about that same thing with video conferencing and so so anyway this is the fun stuff and it looks at positive versus negative sentiment on on companies so first how does etr derive this data and how should we interpret it and what are some of your takeaways [Music] sure first of all how we derive the data or systematic um survey responses that we do on a quarterly basis and we standardize those responses to allow for time series analysis so we can do trend analysis as well we do find that our data because it's talking about forward-looking spending intentions is really more predictive because we're talking about things that might be happening six months three months in the future not things that a lot of other competitors and research peers are looking at things that already happened uh they're looking in the past etr really likes to look into the future and our surveys are set up to do so so thank you for that question it's an enjoyable lead-in but to get to the fun stuff like you said uh what we do here is we put ratings on the data sets i do want to put the caveat out there that our spending intentions really only captures top-line revenue it is not indicative of profit margin or any other line items so this is only going to be viewed as what we are rating the data set itself not the company um you know that's not what we're in the game of doing so i think that's very important for the marketing and the vendors out there themselves when they when they take a look at this we're just talking about what we can control which is our data we're going to talk about a few of the names here on this highlighted vendors list one we're going to go back to that you and i spoke about i guess about six months ago or maybe even earlier which was the observability space um you and i were noticing that it was getting very crowded a lot of new entrants um there was a lot of acquisition from more of the legacy or standard entrance players in the space and that is continuing so i think in a minute we're going to move into that observability space but what we're seeing there is that it's becoming incredibly crowded and we're possibly seeing signs of them cannibalizing each other uh we're also going to move on a little bit into video conferencing where we're capturing some spend deceleration and then ultimately we're going to get into a little bit of a storage refresh cycle and talk about that but yeah these are the highlighted vendors for april um we usually do this once a quarter and they do change based on the data but they're not usually whipsawed around the data doesn't move that quickly yeah so you can see the some of the big names on the left-hand side some of the sas companies that have momentum obviously servicenow has been doing very very well we've talked a lot about snowflake octa crowdstrike z scalar in all very positive as well as you know several others i i guess i'd add some some things i mean i think if thinking about the next decade it's it's cloud which is not going to be like the same cloud as last decade a lot of machine learning and deep learning and ai and the cloud is extending to the edge in the data center data obviously very important data is decentralized and distributed so data architectures are changing a lot of opportunities to connect across clouds and actually create abstraction layers and then something that we've been covering a lot is processor performance is actually accelerating relative to moore's law it's probably instead of doubling every two years it's quadrupling every two years and so that is a huge factor especially as it relates to powering ai and ai inferencing at the edge this is a whole new territory custom silicon is is really becoming in vogue uh and so we're something that we're watching very very closely yeah i completely completely agree on that and i do think that the the next version of cloud will be very different another thing to point out on that too is you can't do anything that you're talking about without collecting the data and and organizations are extremely serious about that now it seems it doesn't matter what industry they're in every company is a data company and that also bodes well for the storage call we do believe that there is going to just be a huge increase in the need for storage um and yes hopefully that'll become portable across multi-cloud and hybrid as well now as eric said the the etr data's it's it's really focused on that top line spend so if you look at the uh on on the right side of that chart you saw you know netapp was kind of negative was very negative right but there's a company that's in in transformation now they've lowered expectations and they've recently beat expectations that's why the stock has been doing better but but at the macro from a spending standpoint it's still challenged so you have big footprint companies like netapp and oracle is another one oracle's stock is at an all-time high but the spending relative to sort of previous cycles or relative to you know like for instance snowflake much much smaller not as high growth but they're managing expectations they're managing their transition they're managing profitability zoom is another one zoom looking looking negative but you know zoom's got to use its market cap now to to transform and increase its tam uh and then splunk is another one we're going to talk about splunk is in transition it acquired signal fx it just brought on this week teresa carlson who was the head of aws public sector she's the president and head of sales so they've got a go to market challenge and they brought in teresa carlson to really solve that but but splunk has been trending downward we called that you know several quarters ago eric and so i want to bring up the data on splunk and this is splunk eric in analytics and it's not trending in the right direction the green is accelerating span the red is and the bars is decelerating spend the top blue line is spending velocity or net score and the yellow line is market share or pervasiveness in the data set your thoughts yeah first i want to go back is a great point dave about our data versus a disconnect from an equity analysis perspective i used to be an equity analyst that is not what we do here and you you may the main word you said is expectations right stocks will trade on how they do compared to the expectations that are set uh whether that's buy side expectations sell side expectations or management's guidance themselves we have no business in tracking any of that what we are talking about is top line acceleration or deceleration so uh that was a great point to make and i do think it's an important one for all of our listeners out there now uh to move to splunk yes i've been capturing a lot of negative commentary on splunk even before the data turned so this has been about a year-long uh you know our analysis and review on this name and i'm dating myself here but i know you and i are both rock and roll fans so i'm gonna point out a led zeppelin song and movie and say that the song remains the same for splunk we are just seeing uh you know recent spending intentions are taking yet another step down both from prior survey levels from year ago levels uh this we're looking at in the analytics sector and spending intentions are decelerating across every single customer group if we went to one of our other slide analysis um on the etr plus platform and you do by customer sub sample in analytics it's dropping in every single vertical it doesn't matter which one uh it's really not looking good unfortunately and you had mentioned this as an analytics and i do believe the next slide is an information security yeah let's bring that up and it's unfortunately it's not doing much better so this is specifically fortune 500 accounts and information security uh you know there's deep pockets in the fortune 500 but from what we're hearing in all the insights and interviews and panels that i personally moderate for etr people are upset they didn't like the the strong tactics that splunk has used on them in the past they didn't like the ingestion model pricing the inflexibility and when alternatives came along people are willing to look at the alternatives and that's what we're seeing in both analytics and big data and also for their sim in security yeah so i think again i i point to teresa carlson she's got a big job but she's very capable she's gonna she's gonna meet with a lot of customers she's a go to market pro she's gonna have to listen hard and i think you're gonna you're gonna see some changes there um okay so there's more sorry there's more bad news on splunk so bring this up is is is net score for splunk in elastic accounts uh this is for analytics so there's 106 elastic accounts that uh in the data set that also have splunk and it's trending downward for splunk that's why it's green for elastic and eric the important call out from etr here is how splunk's performance in elastic accounts compares with its performance overall the elk stack which obviously elastic is a big part of that is causing pain for splunk as is data dog and you mentioned the pricing issue uh is it is it just well is it pricing in your assessment or is it more fundamental you know it's multi-level based on the commentary we get from our itdms that take the survey so yes you did a great job with this analysis what we're looking at is uh the spending within shared accounts so if i have splunk already how am i spending i'm sorry if i have elastic already how is my spending on splunk and what you're seeing here is it's down to about a 12 net score whereas splunk overall has a 32 net score among all of its customers so what you're seeing there is there is definitely a drain that's happening where elastic is draining spend from splunk and usage from them uh the reason we used elastic here is because all observabilities the whole sector seems to be decelerating splunk is decelerating the most but elastic is the only one that's actually showing resiliency so that's why we decided to choose these two but you pointed out yes it's also datadog datadog is cloud native uh they're more devops oriented they tend to be viewed as having technological lead as compared to splunk so that's a really good point a dynatrace also is expanding their abilities and splunk has been making a lot of acquisitions to push their cloud services they are also changing their pricing model right they're they're trying to make things a little bit more flexible moving off ingestion um and moving towards uh you know consumption so they are trying and the new hires you know i'm not gonna bet against them because the one thing that splunk has going for them is their market share in our survey they're still very well entrenched so they do have a lot of accounts they have their foothold so if they can find a way to make these changes then they you know will be able to change themselves but the one thing i got to say across the whole sector is competition is increasing and it does appear based on commentary and data that they're starting to cannibalize themselves it really seems pretty hard to get away from that and you know there are startups in the observability space too that are going to be you know even more disruptive i think i think i want to key on the pricing for a moment and i've been pretty vocal about this i think the the old sas pricing model where essentially you essentially lock in for a year or two years or three years pay up front or maybe pay quarterly if you're lucky that's a one-way street and i think it's it's a flawed model i like what snowflake's doing i like what datadog's doing look at what stripe is doing look what twilio is doing these are cons you mentioned it because it's consumption based pricing and if you've got a great product put it out there and you know damn the torpedoes and i think that is a game changer i i look at for instance hpe with green lake i look at dell with apex they're trying to mimic that model you know they're there and apply it to to infrastructure it's much harder with infrastructure because you got to deploy physical infrastructure but but that is a model that i think is going to change and i think all of the traditional sas pricing is going to is going to come under disruption over the next you know better part of the decades but anyway uh let's move on we've we've been covering the the apm space uh pretty extensively application performance management and this chart lines up some of the big players here comparing net score or spending momentum from the april 20th survey the gray is is um is sorry the the the gray is the april 20th survey the blue is jan 21 and the yellow is april 21. and not only are elastic and data dog doing well relative to splunk eric but everything is down from last year so this space as you point out is undergoing a transformation yeah the pressures are real and it's you know it's sort of that perfect storm where it's not only the data that's telling us that but also the direct feedback we get from the community uh pretty much all the interviews i do i've done a few panels specifically on this topic for anyone who wants to you know dive a little bit deeper we've had some experts talk about this space and there really is no denying that there is a deceleration in spend and it's happening because that spend is getting spread out among different vendors people are using you know a data dog for certain aspects they're using elastic where they can because it's cheaper they're using splunk because they have to but because it's so expensive they're cutting some of the things that they're putting into splunk which is dangerous particularly on the security side if i have to decide what to put in and whatnot that's not really the right way to have security hygiene um so you know this space is just getting crowded there's disruptive vendors coming from the emerging space as well and what you're seeing here is the only bit of positivity is elastic on a survey over survey basis with a slight slight uptick everywhere else year over year and survey over survey it's showing declines it's just hard to ignore and then you've got dynatrace who based on the the interviews you do in the venn you're you know one on one or one on five you know the private interviews that i've been invited to dynatrace gets very high scores uh for their road map you've got new relic which has been struggling you know financially but they've got a purpose built they've got a really good product and a purpose-built database just for this apm space and then of course you've got cisco with appd which is a strong business for them and then as you mentioned you've got startups coming in you've got chaos search which ed walsh is now running you know leave the data in place in aws and really interesting model honeycomb it's going to be really disruptive jeremy burton's company observed so this space is it's becoming jump ball yeah there's a great line that came out of one of them and that was that the lines are blurring it used to be that you knew exactly that app dynamics what they were doing it was apm only or it was logging and monitoring only and a lot of what i'm hearing from the itdm experts is that the lines are blurring amongst all of these names they all have functionality that kind of crosses over each other and the other interesting thing is it used to be application versus infrastructure monitoring but as you know infrastructure is becoming code more and more and more and as infrastructure becomes code there's really no difference between application and infrastructure monitoring so we're seeing a convergence and a blurring of the lines in this space which really doesn't bode well and a great point about new relic their tech gets good remarks uh i just don't know if their enterprise level service and sales is up to snuff right now um as one of my experts said a cto of a very large public online hospitality company essentially said that he would be shocked that within 18 months if all of these players are still uh standalone that there needs to be some m a or convergence in this space okay now we're going to call out some of the data that that really has jumped out to etr in the latest survey and some of the names that are getting the most queries from etr clients which are many of which are investor clients so let's start by having a look at one of the most important and prominent work from home names zoom uh let's let's look at this eric is the ride over for zoom oh i've been saying it for a little bit of a time now actually i do believe it is um i will get into it but again pointing out great dave uh the reason we're presenting today splunk elastic and zoom are they are the most viewed on the etr plus platform uh trailing behind that only slightly is f5 i decided not to bring f5 to the table today because we don't have a rating on the data set um so then i went one deep one below that and it's pure so the reason we're presenting these to you today is that these are the ones that our clients and our community are most interested in which is hopefully going to gain interest to your viewers as well so to get to zoom um yeah i call zoom the pandec pandemic bull market baby uh this was really just one that had a meteoric ride you look back january in 2020 the stock was at 60 and 10 months later it was like like 580. that's in 10 months um that's cooled down a little bit uh into the mid 300s and i believe that cooling down should continue and the reason why is because we are seeing a huge deceleration in our spending intentions uh they're hitting all-time lows it's really just a very ugly data set um more importantly than the spending intentions for the first time we're seeing customer growth in our survey flattened in the past we could we knew that the the deceleration and spend was happening but meanwhile their new customer growth was accelerating so it was kind of hard to really make any call based on that this is the first time we're seeing flattening customer growth trajectory and that uh in tandem with just dominance from microsoft in every sector they're involved in i don't care if it's ip telephony productivity apps or the core video conferencing microsoft is just dominating so there's really just no way to ignore this anymore the data and the commentary state that zoom is facing some headwinds well plus you've pointed out to me that a lot of your private conversations with buyers says that hey we're we're using the freebie version of zoom you know we're not paying them and so in that combined with teams i mean it's it's uh it's i think you know look zoom has to figure it out they they've got to they've got to figure out how to use their elevated market cap to transform and expand their tan um but let's let's move on here's the data on pure storage and we've highlighted a number of times this company is showing elevated spending intentions um pure announces earnings in in may ibm uh just announced storage what uh it was way down actually so sort of still pure more positive but i'll comment on a moment but what does this data tell you eric yeah you know right now we started seeing this data last survey in january and that was the first time we really went positive on the data set itself and it's just really uh continuing so we're seeing the strongest year-over-year acceleration in the entire survey um which is a really good spot to be pure is also a leading position in among its sector peers and the other thing that was pretty interesting from the data set is among all storage players pure has the highest positive public cloud correlation so what we can do is we can see which respondents are accelerating their public cloud spend and then cross-reference that with their storage spend and pure is best positioned so as you and i both know uh you know digital transformation cloud spending is increasing you need to be aligned with that and among all storage uh sector peers uh pure is best positioned in all of those in spending intentions and uh adoptions and also public cloud correlation so yet again just another really strong data set and i have an anecdote about why this might be happening because when i saw the date i started asking in my interviews what's going on here and there was one particular person he was a director of cloud operations for a very large public tech company now they have hybrid um but their data center is in colo so they don't own and build their own physical building he pointed out that doran kovid his company wanted to increase storage but he couldn't get into his colo center due to covert restrictions they weren't allowed you had so 250 000 square feet right but you're only allowed to have six people in there so it's pretty hard to get to your rack and get work done he said he would buy storage but then the cola would say hey you got to get it out of here it's not even allowed to sit here we don't want it in our facility so he has all this pent up demand in tandem with pent up demand we have a refresh cycle the ssd you know depreciation uh you know cycle is ending uh you know ssds are moving on and we're starting to see uh new technology in that space nvme sorry for technology increasing in that space so we have pent up demand and we have new technology and that's really leading to a refresh cycle and this particular itdm that i spoke to and many of his peers think this has a long tailwind that uh storage could be a good sector for some time to come that's really interesting thank you for that that extra metadata and i want to do a little deeper dive on on storage so here's a look at storage in the the industry in context and some of the competitive i mean it's been a tough market for the reasons that we've highlighted cloud has been eating away that flash headroom it used to be you'd buy storage to get you know more spindles and more performance and you were sort of forced to buy more flash gave more headroom but it's interesting what you're saying about the depreciation cycle so that's good news so etr combines just for people's benefit here combines primary and secondary storage into a single category so you have companies like pure and netapp which are really pure play you know primary storage companies largely in the sector along with veeam cohesity and rubric which are kind of secondary data or data protection so my my quick thoughts here are that pure is elevated and remains what i call the one-eyed man in the land of the blind but that's positive tailwinds there so that's good news rubric is very elevated but down it's a big it's big competitor cohesity is way off its highs and i have to say to me veeam is like the steady eddy consistent player here they just really continue to do well in the data protection business and and the highs are steady the lows are steady dell is also notable they've been struggling in storage their isg business which comprises service and storage it's been soft during covid and and during even you know this new product rollout so it's notable with this new mid-range they have in particular the uptick in dell this survey because dell so large a small uptick can be very good for dell hpe has a big announcement next month in storage so that might improve based on a product cycle of course the nimble brand continues to do well ibm as i said just announced a very soft quarter you know down double digits again uh and there in a product cycle shift and netapp is that looks bad in the etr data from a spending momentum standpoint but their management team is transforming the company into a cloud play which eric is why it was interesting that pure has the greatest momentum in in cloud accounts so that is sort of striking to me i would have thought it would be netapp so that's something that we want to pay attention to but i do like a lot of what netapp is doing uh and other than pure they're the only big kind of pure play in primary storage so long winded uh uh intro there eric but anything you'd add no actually i appreciate it was long winded i i'm going to be honest with you storage is not my uh my best sector as far as a researcher and analyst goes uh but i actually think a lot of what you said is spot on um you know we do capture a lot of large organizations spend uh we don't capture much mid and small so i think when you're talking about these large large players like netapp and um you know not looking so good all i would state is that we are capturing really big organizations spending attention so these are names that should be doing better to be quite honest uh in those accounts and you know at least according to our data we're not seeing it and it's long-term depression as you can see uh you know netapp now has a negative spending velocity in this analysis so you know i can go dig around a little bit more but right now the names that i'm hearing are pure cohesity uh um i'm hearing a little bit about hitachi trying to reinvent themselves in the space but you know i'll take a wait-and-see approach on that one but uh pure and cohesity are the ones i'm hearing a lot from our community so storage is transforming to cloud as a service you're seeing things like apex and in green lake from dell and hpe and container storage little so not really a lot of people paying attention to it but pure about a company called portworx which really specializes in container storage and there's many startups there they're trying to really change the way david flynn has a startup in that space he's the guy who started fusion i o so a lot a lot of transformations happening here okay i know it's been a long segment we have to summarize and then let me go through a summary and then i'll give you the last word eric so tech spending appears to be tracking us gdp at six to seven percent this talent shortage could be a blocker to accelerating i.t deployments and that's kind of good news actually for for services companies digital transformation you know it's it remains a priority and that bodes well not only for services but automation uipath went public this week we we profiled that you know extensively that went public last wednesday um organizations they've i said at the top face some tough decisions on how to allocate resources you know running the business growing the business transforming the business and we're seeing a bifurcation of spending and some residual effects on vendors and that remains a theme that we're watching eric your final thoughts yeah i'm going to go back quickly to just the overall macro spending because there's one thing i think is interesting to point out and we're seeing a real acceleration among mid and small so it seems like early on in the covid recovery or kovitz spending it was the deep pockets that moved first right fortune 500 knew they had to support remote work they started spending first round that in the fortune 500 we're only seeing about five percent spent but when you get into mid and small organizations that's creeping up to eight nine so i just think it's important to point out that they're playing catch-up right now uh also would point out that this is heavily skewed to north america spending we're seeing laggards in emea they just don't seem to be spending as much they're in a very different place in their recovery and uh you know i do think that it's important to point that out um lastly i also want to mention i know you do such a great job on following a lot of the disruptive vendors that you just pointed out pure doing container storage we also have another bi-annual survey that we do called emerging technology and that's for the private names that's going to be launching in may for everyone out there who's interested in not only the disruptive vendors but also private equity players uh keep an eye out for that we do that twice a year and that's growing in its respondents as well and then lastly one comment because you mentioned the uipath ipo it was really hard for us to sit on the sidelines and not put some sort of rating on their data set but ultimately um the data was muted unfortunately and when you're seeing this kind of hype into an ipo like we saw with snowflake the data was resoundingly strong we had no choice but to listen to what the data said for snowflake despite the hype um we didn't see that for uipath and we wanted to and i'm not making a large call there but i do think it's interesting to juxtapose the two that when snowflake was heading to its ipo the data was resoundingly positive and for uipath we just didn't see that thank you for that and eric thanks for coming on today it's really a pleasure to have you and uh so really appreciate the the uh collaboration and look forward to doing more of these we enjoy the partnership greatly dave we're very very happy to have you in the etr family and looking forward to doing a lot lot more with you in the future ditto okay that's it for today remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you got to do is search breaking analysis podcast and please subscribe to the series check out etr's website it's etr dot plus we also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com at siliconangle.com you can email me david.velante at siliconangle.com you can dm me on twitter at dvalante or comment on our linkedin post i could see you in clubhouse this is dave vellante for eric porter bradley for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week stay safe be well and we'll see you next time

[Music] from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante uipath's recent 750 million dollar raise at a 35 billion valuation underscores investor enthusiasm for robotic process automation rpa and why not the pandemic has fueled a surge in automation as organizations retool their operations and prepare for a post-covered environment but look reasonable people are asking is this market getting overheated welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll explore the current trends in the rpa market and try to address the question is uipath's value supported by the spending data how will the rpa market evolve from a total available market perspective and where do some of the other players like automation anywhere pega systems and blue prism fit let's first summarize what's new in rpa since we last reported in the space we've all beat to death the positive impact that covet has had on many sectors and rpa is one of the beneficiaries from most if not many organizations if you're not a digital business today you're out of business and replacing labor with software is a major factor in the digital transformations that are taking place now uipath has raised about two billion dollars to date and has a value comparable to that of snowflake at its ipo many are predicting that it will in fact be the snowflake of 2021. look i'm optimistic about the future of uipath but in my opinion the operational excellence that frank slootman and mike scarpelli have brought to snowflake is not nearly as baked as at that at uipath and that that said the market conditions are quite good for uipath right now now while cost reduction is still the main driver for rpa adoptions we're seeing more business productivity use cases that point to a broader automation agenda than simply installing some software robots and point applications to eliminate mundane tasks rather we're seeing a much more holistic thinking in within organizations in a large part driven by the covid slap in the face and given the ceos have now a green light to make big changes that would have been culturally more difficult pre-pandemic to wit we're seeing many more centers of excellence pop up around rpa with a more aggressive agenda than we saw pre-covered before covert these efforts they've been met with a lot more resistance to change than we're seeing today now in the coming decade we expect two major trends to emerge one is a move from this search and destroy mentality toward process transformation to more of an automated approach around discovering candidates for automation second is low code implementations are likely to lead the rise of the so-called citizen developer now capabilities in this regard today are nascent within most products but we believe they will improve steadily over the next several years years and lead to the democracy democratization of rpa so the big question is are we in an rpa bubble or is this really the next big thing this chart depicts our attempt a while back to assess the total available market for robotic process automation and there are a few important points here first our effort was somewhat narrowly focused on rpa tooling but we did try to take into account a broader automation agenda across enterprises we tried to size the move from back office to front office to enterprise-wide automation efforts leading to this buzzword that ultimately gartner created called hyper automation now when we first published this chart we got feedback that we were too conservative and so you know we've thought about what could we be missing and that's depicted there in that red big question mark we've got to do more work on this but looking at the global automation market we see a multi-hundred billion dollar opportunity however that largely focuses on industrial automation versus replacing human tasks with robots process automation is a much smaller piece of that pie and overall these larger figures they also include drones autonomous vehicles and other innovations that rpa may or may not address is it possible that there's an order of magnitude greater opportunity for rpa than we initially thought well here's another way to look at it rpa generally is targeted at larger organizations which can justify the investment with faster returns according to fortune magazine the 500 largest companies in the world generate more than 30 trillion in revenue is it unreasonable to assume that they could spend one percent of revenue on rpa we don't think that's crazy so there very well could be a tam of hundreds of billions of dollars for this market we would say however to attack that opportunity point rpa tools won't get you there but automation platforms very well could in fact that better be the case because with a 35 billion dollar valuation pre-ipo uipath and its peers will need a massive massive market to justify those investments so we'll keep digging into that expanded opportunity to see if it holds water now another way to look at the opportunity is to look at the spending data so let's do that and bring in our etr friends to that discussion as we've reported for many quarters now rpa is one of the top areas in which organizations are investing and you can see that in this chart here this graphic shows net score or spending momentum across the etr taxonomy and you can see we've highlighted rpa which along with machine learning slash ai cloud and containers lead the pack the big four momentum leaders in the only four that consistently over the last several quarters show a net score in the survey above that dotted red forty percent line now remember that net score is a measure of spending velocity based on looking at the percent of customers in the survey that are spending more and subtracting those that are spending less the calculation is a bit more granular than that but you get the point now one of the components of net score is new adoptions and that's part of the spend more equation and this chart shows that only the new adoptions across that taxonomy in those sectors and you can see that rpa and machine learning slash ai top the charts that yellow line shows the january survey results you can see these two sectors are well ahead of others in terms of new spending albeit they are down somewhat from previous quarters a year ago rather but up from the previous quarter now here's another look at the data let's let's really drill into the the rpa sector and look at those components of net score what this chart shows is that granularity along with market share for the past nine surveys i'll explain that the bright green or that lime green on the bars that's new adoptions the forest green is the percent of customers that are spending more on rpa that means they're spending more than five percent the gray depicts flat spending the pink is spending less meaning less than five percent relative to earlier years and the the earlier year and the bright red is replacing the platform we're chucking it out and the net score blue line at the top it nets out the lesses from the moors so you can see very highly elevated for the rpa sector holding firm over time and now even increasing so very very positive now you see that yellow line at the bottom that shows so-called market share which depicts the pervasiveness of rpa within the overall survey relative to other sectors so the steady uptick over time suggests that buyers continue to allocate more and more budget to rpa so very very positive signs there because let's face it the return has been really positive and the mandate for automation thanks to covid is really staring us in the face now let's drill into some of the vendors and see who's winning in the market and maybe who's got less momentum the chart here shows spending momentum or net score over time for the five companies that we're showing now at the top is power automate from microsoft which last year required softer motive and is integrating rpa into its offerings microsoft look they loom large as we've reported and they're everywhere in so many many sectors and rpa is no different the reality is that power automate is not as mature as products from the leaders a classic microsoft 1.0 version if you will but they're in the game now and they cannot be taken lightly we expect microsoft to steadily improve its functionality and integration with the broader microsoft portfolio making it an easy choice for many if not most of microsoft's customers that either want to dabble in rpa or have it as an item in their portfolio you can see uipath has retaken the lead in net score over rival automation anywhere and is showing a nice uptick from last summer's survey as it has made some acquisitions and is moving toward becoming a platform play versus a product play we'd also note three factors that favor uipath in the marketplace first is its simplicity uipath is probably the easiest to adopt second is its emphasis on training and third is the very robust community and ecosystem that it's developed automation anywhere's line is under pressure and we think that's because the company essentially had to do a major product refresh and like any install based migration it's going to slow down momentum and create maybe some friction in the marketplace but we think from a competitive standpoint it was absolutely the right move by aa you've got to bite the bullet invest in the product and grow from there the company also has a really strong ecosystem good engineering and we expect continued improvement for automation anywhere going forward you also see a big uptick for blue prism it's got a mature product and a strong ecosystem as well and we've seen its momentum pop up and down in the survey over the last several quarters and years but they're clearly a solid player in this market they don't have the momentum of a ui path or an automation anywhere they're they're a smaller company but certainly they're a credible player now pega systems is really interesting to us we don't see them as an rpa player per se they're much more focused on a broader business process play include things like crm and intelligent automation in their portfolio rpa is a bundled offering that pega layers into its broader suite and we like what the company has accomplished we're going to come back to them in a moment and talk a little bit more about them and their performance but before we do that let's take another look at the competitive landscape this view is one of our favorites it's that it's that xy view so so we're plotting net score on the y-axis and market share or the pervasiveness within the survey on the x-axis and you can see uipath is they're literally off the charts in the upper right there with because microsoft looming large with its very strong presence and fast adoption of power automate but microsoft ui path automation anywhere in blue prism they all have shared ends or mentions in the survey of more than 50 and net scores over 50 percent so those stand out to us above the rest with uipath as the leader combining both the most significant market momentum and product excellence notwithstanding microsoft's presence again microsoft and their microsoft and we'd be foolish to minimize their their presence in the marketplace now again pega is in the mix they've got a respectable 31 net score but again they're not an rpa specialist and their strategy is paying off in our view the rpa froth combined with pegas history its vision its solid engineering culture and execution are paying off for the company as you can see in these charts so there's charts so what we're showing here is a graph of pegas stock price over the last five years what's most impressive is the strong upward move very very strong since march of last year peg is a billion dollar company been around for a long time but it's growing it's moving it's shifting into a subscription model so it's going through that process of communicating that to wall street i think doing a very very good job of it as it transitions it's transitioning to a recurring revenue stream that's going to have a much more predictable cash flow and profitability impact on the company and you can see its valuation it's at 12 billion it's about 12x revenue it's significantly lower than uipath's most recent value by a factor of roughly 3x but you know presumably that's due to its slower growth rate but pega they've got to love this dynamic because the market's coming to them they've got a mature business that's thriving through a transition to an arr model with solid growth strong customer base and a culture of innovation so really solid job within pega that management is doing in our opinion now let's close by digging into the two pure play leaders uipath and automation anywhere we do this quite frequently in these updates and we'll look at the so-called wheel charts for each company let's start with uipath so this is a pie if you will or wheel breakdown of what we described earlier in net score it's derived from this view by subtracting the reds from the greens several things stand out first you got a nice chunk of new adoptions at 15 percent supported by 56 percent of its customers spending more and only 5 percent spending less than zero percent replacing so that's a very nice picture now let's compare that to automation anywhere and its profile the chart shows the same picture and and even a larger substantially larger new adoptions so that perhaps is is a function of its new platform resonating with customers now automation anywhere's net score is lower than you ui pass owing to a much larger portion of the customer base that has flat spending and a slightly higher replacement figure but both these companies exhibit strong spending patterns in the etr data now we want to share one other data point that stands out in its early days this new relatively new era of rpa we're still there even though rpa has been around for for decades but the point is that large companies have they got a lot of divisions with a lot of buying autonomy within those divisions and as such you're going to see multiple rpa vendors within the account so the question here is okay how are these accounts doing these where they have multiple vendors in the account what stands out in this chart is uipath's performance in shared accounts the chart looks at microsoft power automate and automation anywhere accounts you can see that in the little pull down there in the in the left hand column and so it's it's it's it's microsoft power automate and aaa accounts that also have ui path installed and you can see that little cut on ui path there in the upper middle and there's 149 of those accounts in the etr data set this last quarter and you can see the performance of uipath since covid hit this is very encouraging it speaks to ui past strong go to market and it's really solid land and expand strategy so by no means is this game over for the other players but the etr data continues to support where investors are placing their bets what customers tell us and anecdotal information within the marketplace that that uipath continues to pave the way for a new wave of growth a well-funded automation anywhere is on its tail and these two continue to vie for leadership and are trying to break out from the pack we expect public offerings from both companies within the next 12 to 24 months in fact as you know probably uipath has filed confidentially to do an ipo and has given a time frame i think of 12 to 18 months and they both companies in our view got to get they got a window of 12 to 24 months to go public prior to microsoft getting its product act together and getting to a point where it could really cause some disruption to these respective businesses so anyway i hope this gives you a good snapshot of how we see the marketplace how do you see it please let me know you can dm me at d vallante or comment on my linkedin posts or email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com remember i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and don't forget to check out etr.plus as well all these episodes are available on podcasts wherever you listen thanks for watching this episode of thecube insights powered by etr this is dave vellante wishing you well stay safe and we'll see you next time you

>> From the SiliconANGLE Media office in Boston, Massachusetts, it's theCUBE. Now here's your host, Dave Vellante. >> Hello everybody and welcome to this week's CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. It is Breaking Analysis, but first I'm coming to you from the floor of Cisco Live in Barcelona, and I want to talk about storage. Storage continues to be soft but there are some bright spots. I've been reporting on this for awhile now and I want to dig in and share with you some of the reasons why, maybe give you some forecasts as to what I think is going to happen in the coming months. And of course, we want to look into some of the ETR spending data, and try to parse through that and understand who's winning, who's losing, who's got the momentum, where are the tailwinds and headwinds. So the first thing I want to show you is let's get right into it. What this slide is showing here is a storage spending snapshot of net score. Now remember, net score in the ETR parlance is an indicator of momentum or spending velocity. Essentially every quarter, what ETR does is they go out to, in this case, 1100 respondents out of the 4500 dataset, and they ask them are you spending more or are you spending less. Essentially they subtract the less from the more and that constitutes net score. It's not that simple but for this purpose, that's what we're showing. Now you can see here on the left hand side, I'm showing all respondents out of 1161. You see the January survey net scores. You've got Rubrik, Cohesity, Nutanix, and Pure, and VMware vSAN are the top five. So Rubrik and Cohesity, very strong, and interesting, Rubrik was very strong last quarter. Cohesity not as strong but really shooting up. It kind of surprised me last quarter, Cohesity being a little low but they were early into the dataset and now they're starting to show what I think is really happening in the marketplace. That's a good indicator. But you can see 75 percent, 72 percent. Nutanix still very strong at 56 percent, driving that hyperconverge piece. You see Pure Storage at 44 percent, down a little bit, talk a little bit more about that in a moment. VMware vSAN, Veeam, et cetera, down the list. The thing about the left hand side and storage in general, you can see the softness. Only about one third of the suppliers are in the green, and that's a problem. If you compare this to security, probably three quarters are in the green. It's a much hotter segment. Now, look on the right hand side. The right hand side is showing what ETR calls GPP, giant, public, and private. You can see there's an N of 403. These are the largest, the very largest public and private companies, private company being a company like Mars Candy. And they say that they are the best indicators of spending momentum in the dataset. So really isolating on some of the large companies. Look what happens here. You can see Rubrik gets even stronger as does Cohesity, they're into the 80 percent range. That's really rarefied air, so very strong. You can see Nutanix drops down. It does better in the smaller companies, it appears. They drop down to 41 percent. Pure gets stronger in the GPP at 68 percent. You can see VMware's vSAN uptick to 45 percent. Nimble gets better, HPE's Nimble, to 54 percent. Dell drops down to 4.8 percent. HPE goes up to 33 percent. HPE was red in the left hand side. You can see Veeam drops, not surprising, Veeam in the biggest companies is not going to be as prevalent. We talked about that in our Breaking Analysis segment after the acquisition of Veeam. You can see NetApp bumps up a little bit but it's still kind of in that red zone. I also want to call your attention to Actifio. They're way down on the bottom in the left hand side, which kind of surprised me. And then I started digging into it because I know Actifio does better in the larger companies. In the right hand side, they pop up to 33 percent. It's only an N of three, but what I'm seeing in the marketplace is Actifio solving some really hard problems in database and copy data management. You're starting to see those results as well. But generally speaking, this picture is not great for storage, with the exception of a few players like Rubrik and Cohesity, Pure, Nutanix. And I'm going to get into that a little bit and try to explain what's going on here. The market's bifurcated. Primary storage has been on the back burner for awhile now, and I've been talking about that. The one exception to that is really been Pure. Little bit for Dell EMC coming back, we'll dig into that a little bit more but Pure has been the stand-out. They're even moderating lately, I'll talk about that some more. Secondary storage is where the market momentum is and you can see that with Rubrik and Cohesity. Again, we'll talk about that some more. Let me dig into the primary side. Cloud, as I've talked about in many Breaking Analysis segments is siphoning off demand from on-prem spend. The second big factor in storage has been there was such an injection of flash into the marketplace, it added headroom. Customers used to buy spindles to get performance, and they don't need to do that so much anymore because so much flash was pushed into the system. The third thing is you're still seeing in primary the consolidation dynamics play out with hyperconverge. So hyperconverge is the software defined bringing together of storage, compute, and networking into a single logical managed unit. That is taking share away from traditional primary storage. You're also seeing tactical NAND pricing be problematic for storage suppliers. You saw that with Pure again this past quarter. NAND pricing comes down, which you'd think would be a good thing from a component standpoint, which it is, but it also lowers prices of the systems. So that hurt Pure's revenue. Their unit volume was pretty good but you're seeing that sort of put pressure on prices, so ASPs are down, average system prices. Let's turn our attention to the secondary market for a moment. Huge injection of venture capital, like a billion dollars, half a billion dollars over the last year, and then another five billion just spent on the acquisition of Veeam. A lot of action going on there. You're seeing big TAM expansions where companies like Rubrik and Cohesity, who have garnered much of that VC spending, are really expanding the notion of data protection from back-up into data management, into analytics, into security, and things of that nature, so a much bigger emphasis on TAM expansion, of course as I talked about the M and A. Let's dig into each of these segments. The chart that I'm showing now really digs into primary storage. You can see here the big players, Pure, Dell EMC, HPE, NetApp, and IBM. And lookit, there's only company in the green, Pure. You can see they're trending down just a little bit from previous quarters but still far and away the company with most spending momentum. Again, here I'm showing net score measure of spending velocity back to the January '18 survey. You can see Dell EMC sort of fell and then is slowly coming back up. NetApp hanging in there, Dell EMC, HP, and NetApp kind of converging, and you can see IBM. IBM announced last quarter about three percent growth. I talked about that actually in September. I predicted that IBM storage would have growth because they synchronized their DS8000 high-end mainframe announcement to the z15, so you saw a little bit of uptick in IBM. Pure, as I said, 15 percent growth. I mean, if you're flat in this market or growing at three percent, you're doing pretty well, you're probably a share gainer. We'll see what happens in February when Dell EMC, HPE, and NetApp announce earnings. We'll update you at that time. So that's what you're seeing now. Same story, Pure outpacing the others, everybody else fighting for share. Let's turn our attention now to secondary storage. What I'm showing here is net score for the secondary storage players. I can't isolate on a drill down for secondary storage, last slide I could do on storage overall, but what I can show is pure plays. What's showing here is Rubrik, Cohesity, Veeam, Commvault, and Veritas. Five pure play, you can argue Veritas isn't a pure play, but I consider it a pure play data protection vendor. Look at Rubrik and Cohesity really shooting up to the right, 75 percent and 72 percent net scores, respectively. You see Veeam hanging in there. This is again, all respondents, the full 1100 dataset. Commvault announced last quarter it beat earnings but it's not growing. You can see some pressure there, and you can see Veritas under some pressure as well. You can see a net score really deep in the red, so that's cause for some concern. We'll keep watching that, maybe dig into some of the larger accounts to see how they're doing there. But you can see clear standouts with Rubrik and Cohesity. I want to look at hyperconverge now. Again, I can't drill into hyperconverge but what I can do is show some of the pure plays. So what this slide shows is the net score for some of the pure play hyperconverge vendors led by Nutanix. The relative newcomer here is vSAN with VMware. You can see Dell EMC, VxRail, and Simplivity. I would say this. A lot of the marketing push that you hear out of Dell and out of VMware says Nutanix is in big trouble, they're dying and so forth. Our data definitely shows something different. The one caution is, you can see Nutanix and larger accounts, not as strong. And you can see both vSAN and Dell EMC stronger in those larger accounts. Maybe that's kind of their bias and their observation space, but it's something that we've got to watch. But you can see the net scores here. Everybody's in the green because overall, this is a strong market. Everybody is winning. It's taking share as I said from primary. We're watching that very closely. Nutanix continues to be strong. Watching very carefully that competitive dynamic and the dynamics within those larger companies which are a bellwether. Now the big question that I want to ask here is can storage reverse the ten-year trend of the big cloud sucking sound that we have heard for the past decade. I've been reporting with data on how cloud generally has hurt that storage spend on-prem. So what I'm showing here in this slide is the net score for the cloud spenders. Many hundreds of cloud spenders in the dataset. What we're showing here is the net score, the spending velocity over the last 10 years for the leaders. You can see Dell EMC, the number one. NetApp, right there in terms of market share, IBM as well. I didn't show HPE because the slide got too busy but they'd be up there as well. So these are the big spenders, big on-prem players and you can see, well, it's up and down. The highs are lower and the lows tend to be lower. You can see on the latest surveys, maybe there's some upticks here in some of the companies. But generally speaking, the trend has been down. That siphoning away of demand from the cloud guys. Can that be reversed, and that's something that we're going to watch, so keeping an eye on that. Let me kind of summarize and I'll make some other comments here. One of the things we're going to watch here is Dell EMC, NetApp, and HPE earnings announcements in February. That's going to be a clear indicator. We'll look for what's happening with overall demand, what the growth trajectory looks like, and very importantly, what NAND pricing looks like. As a corollary to that, we're going to be watching elasticity. I firmly believe as prices go down, that more storage is going to bought. That's always been the case. Flash is still only about 20, 25, 30 percent of the market, about 30 percent of the spending, about 20 percent of the terabytes. But as prices come down, expect people to buy more. That's always been the case. If there's an elasticity of demand, it hasn't shown up in the earning statements, and that's a bit of a concern. But we'll keep an eye on that. We're also going to watch the cloud siphoning demand from on-prem spend. Can the big players and guys like Pure and others, new start-ups maybe, reverse that trend. Multi-cloud, there's an opportunity for these guys. Multi-cloud management, TAM expansion into new areas. Actually delivering services in the cloud. You saw Pure announce block storage in the cloud. So that's kind of interesting that we'll watch. Other players may be getting into the data protection space, but as it relates to the cloud, one of the things I'm watching very closely is the TAM expansion of the cloud players. What do I mean by that. Late last year, Amazon announced a broader set of products or services really in its portfolio. Let's watch for Amazon's moves and other big cloud players into the storage space. I fully expect they're going to want to get a bigger piece of that pie. Remember, much if not most of Amazon's revenue comes from compute. They really haven't awakened to the great storage opportunity that's out there. Why is that important. You saw this play out on-prem. Servers became a really tough market. Intel made all the money. Amazon is a huge customer of Intel, and Intel's getting a big piece of Amazon's EC2 business. That's why you see, in part, Amazon getting into its own chip design. I mean, in the server business, you're talking about low gross margin business. If you're in the 20s or low 30s, you're thrilled. Pure last quarter had 70 plus percent gross margins. It's been a 60 plus percent gross margin business consistently. You're going to see the cloud guys wake up to that and try to grab even more share. It's going to be interesting to see how the traditional on-prem vendors respond to that. Coming into last decade, you saw tons of start-ups but only two companies really reached escape velocity: Nutanix and Pure. At the beginning of the century, you saw Data Domain, Isilon, Compellent, 3PAR all went public. EqualLogic and LeftHand got taken out. There are a bunch of other companies that got acquired. Storage was really a great market. Coming into this decade, mid part of the decade, you had lots of VC opportunity here. You had Fusion and Violin, Intentury went public. They all flamed out. You had a big acquisition with SolidFire, almost a billion dollars, but really Pure and Nutanix were the only ones to make it, so the question is, are you going to see anyone reach escape velocity in the next decade, and where's that going to come from. The likely players today would be Cohesity and Rubrik. Those unicorns would be the opportunity. You could argue Veeam, I guess reached it, but hard to tell because Veeam's a private company. By escape velocity, we're talking large companies who go public, have a big exit in the public market and become transparent so we really know what's going on there. Will it come from a cloud or a cloud native play. We'll see. Are there others that might emerge, like a Nebulon or a Clumio. A company like Infinidat's doing well, will they hit escape velocity and do an IPO and again, become more transparent. That's again something that we're watching, but you're clearly seeing moves up the stack where there's a lot more emphasis in spending on cloud, cloud native. We clearly saw it with hyperconverge consolidation but up the stack towards the apps, really driving digital transformations. People want to spend less on heavy lifting like storage. They're always going to need storage. But is it going to be the same type of market it has been for the last 30 or 40 years, of great investment opportunities. We're starting to see that wane but we'll keep track of it. Thank you for watching this Breaking Analysis, this is CUBE Insights powered by ETR. This is Dave Vellante. We'll see you next time.

>> Announcer: Live from Chicago, Illinois, it's theCUBE. Covering VeeamOn 2018 brought to you by Veeam. >> We're back at VeeamOn 2018, you're watching theCUBE, the leader in live tech coverage. I'm Dave Vellante with my cohost Stu Miniman. Stu, always great working with you. Bruce Shaw is here, he's the Senior Director of Global Alliances and Industry Solutions at NetApp. Great to see you, thanks for coming on theCUBE. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, I got to start out with NetApp, I mean, we've followed NetApp for decades, ya know, from the very beginning back when I was at IDC, Stu, you were probably still in your mother's womb. (laughing) But you guys are back in a big way, I mean, for a while there it looked vulnerable. You took advantage of the Dell EMC merger. You're gaining share again, you're growing, stock price is up, there's a spring in your step, what's going on? >> Well, a lot of things are going on. I think we've had a lot of leadership additions to the company, Henri Richard joined and took over as the CSO with the company. We've got a new CMO in Jean English. But more importantly, a lot of the areas that we were late to the market, and candidly we've admitted we were late. We didn't have a good Flash story a couple years ago. We've been very aggressive with Flash over the last 24 to 18 months. We're now the fastest growing Flash storage provider out in the market, and we think we'll exit this year as number one. In fact, we think that's the current course and trajectory. We're very happy with where that's going. The FlexPod partnership with Cisco was great this past year. We had a record year in Converged infrastructure, which was a down market, we picked up about 13 points a share according to IDC, so a lot of the cylinders are starting to fire, but the one that is probably the biggest and the most shocking for folks is three, four years ago, the belief was that cloud was going to kill on-prem storage for companies like NetApp. I think the one thing that they did right ahead of the curve was they embraced the cloud. They've got great partnerships with Google, Amazon, the hyperscalers, and cloud strategy and the business that drives the company there is the fastest part of the company, and Anthony Lye runs that team, and it's doing an amazing job. >> Explain how, and you're absolutely right, many, most, frankly myself at times, felt that way. Explain how cloud is a tailwind and not just a one-way street into the roach motel. >> Oh well, there isn't an enterprise today that isn't thinking about cloud in some way, shape, or form, right? Now, ya have prognosticators on either side saying it's all going to the cloud or something less than that, but the truth is when you look at a strategy like ONTAP and the ability to move your data, whether it's on-prem or to the cloud and manage it through our data fabric story, that's where NetApp really starts coming into their own. I think, again, that's where we've been able to take advantage, and it's not just having it one way or the other or being good just with the hyperscalers or good with the guys that want to be secure because most companies do a hybrid story, and they want to bit of both. >> Well, I think the one thing that I would observe about NetApp, having followed the company for many, many years, which I think gives you an advantage, is NetApp really has always had storage services in software that were largely decoupled from the hardware, and that allowed you to get into cloud early, don't ya think, Stu? >> Yeah, absolutely, and Bruce, we're here at VeeamOn, and their message sounds a lot like that to me, so maybe help explain, we were just talking to Veeam's CMO, when you hear some of the descriptions of storage services, software, multicloud, and everything, NetApp and Veeam sound alike. How are they complementary in, ya know, maybe where do they bump up against each other, yeah? >> Yeah, well, we both compete in the same market, which is storage, so of course, there's areas where we're going to compete with each other, but we are very complementary in terms of the story and the markets that we serve, right? NetApp is incredible strong in the enterprise. Veeam has great commercial channel presence, so from a route to market there's a lot of complementary stuff we do with each other. Price point, in terms of where we hit the market and the things that we go after, we have a lot of opportunity where there's not overlap to help each out to the point they're now, the relationship's evolved over the last four years where we're actually doing OEM of each other's products. We've got our E-Series we just announced yesterday that we're OEMing with these guys, which again is targeted at exactly those markets. The story between the two that we're both at our core not hardware companies, not storage companies, but data management companies really is where this starts to come together and play well. The fact that they're mutually supportive of each other makes for a really strong value proposition for the customer and the channel, especially the guys like the service providers or ya know, hybrid cloud providers, it's a big time story for them. >> So you're growing with, the partnership with Veeam is growing. >> Right. >> Ya got a combination of trends that become tailwinds, but then you've got execution. Can you explain what are those tailwinds, and what's the execution ethos with the partnership? >> We are a channel-only company for all intents and purposes. >> Dave: Oh yeah, I don't know what the number is now, but you've always been very, very high performing. >> Yeah, I know, so we look at businesses that we drive, and channel is at the core of what we do, so when you have a tailwind like, ya know, where we are with Flash and the growth there, the channel partners are making more money, the programs that are coming for them, we're not taking business that they're doing today and pushing it towards the cloud. Again, we're talking about the story that's transitory between the two, so for a lot of the channel providers that are out there getting in the market, that's a very powerful story for them. That it's not a competitive business, we're not going to try to create our own cloud service to take away from them. We want to help them as they migrate between the two. >> All right, Bruce, one of the other areas we're hearing a lot about at this show that I think lines up with NetApp is the analytics and AI, can you maybe talk about how that ties into the products? >> Yeah, I mean, you look at a lot of these markets like AI, like analytics in terms of what companies are doing, it sheds off a tremendous amount of data, right? And that data is at the heart of what they want to analyze and go through, and when they bring those things to market, the goal is how I quickly move it from where I'm capturing it to where I need it, and ONTAP does a really good job of doing that in terms of being able to take the data to where they need it, whether it's at the edge or whether it's back at the core of the company, so that you can actually do the real work with it and gain the insights that drive the business. >> Bruce, what's the resale agreement that you have with Veeam, can you explain that? >> We have Veeam on our price list. Our sales reps can sell Veeam, can be compensated for it, vice versa, they can absolutely hook in and drive away with NetApp, and now that we're getting products like E-Series where their product is embedded in ours, that only strengthens that kind of motion. So for a NetApp sales rep today, if they have an opportunity where Veeam is needed on it as part of the offering, it's absolutely in their wheelhouse to go sell it, and they get the sale level of love and attention from quote and comp standpoint that they would if it was NetApp only products. >> So this is kind of interesting innovation that Veeam, I think, has been out in front of, they, and I dunno how they do it, Stu, but I think Veeam understands the lifetime value of a customer and is willing to make, put sweat equity into a deal as part of a partnership to make it transparent to a partner sales force. >> Yeah absolutely. >> That's innovation in business model. >> Absolutely, we're very proud of our sales force and the work that they're able to do. We view ourselves as kind of the last big enterprise standalone storage company that's out there doing this, and I run strategic alliances, and some partners integrate really well with our sales guys. Others, it's more of a, ya know, it requires more work. To your point, Veeam has done a superb job at identifying how and where they play with our folks and getting together where we go to market together. >> It's interesting, we used to, ya know, several years ago now, ask the question can NetApp remain independent. We've seen all these independent storage companies kind of go away. Used to have this conversation with David Scott at 3PAR all the time, EMC itself wasn't able to maintain it, and then NetApp got to the point where it was almost too big for an acquisition, and although stock price was down, everybody, NetApp was the rumor of MNA more than any company I can think of in the storage business, but now you're seeing sort of antithetical to what most people expected, it's kind of like the cloud we were talking about before, storage companies emerged. Pure was the first one over a billion since NetApp. What are your thoughts, and what's that, I wonder what, you guys must talk in the hallways about that whole, the dynamics of the industry. It seems like it's still a viable business model to be best of breed. >> It's very viable, so I took over running the strategic alliances at the beginning of January, and my dance card's full. I can't believe the number of folks that are calling up wanting to partner. I think we've gotten much more mature in terms of how we view the market and our ability to get strategically with other companies to be successful, and there absolutely is always going to be a place out there for a best of breed story. Customers want the best technology that they can get to handle their business needs, and if we partner with great partners, whether it's Veeam or others to provide that for them, I think the viability of NetApp only gets stronger not weaker. >> It's interesting because now ya got NetApp, Pure, Nutanix, soon to be Veeam, as billion dollar independent pure play companies in the storage business. Isilon couldn't get there, Data Domain couldn't get there, Compellent couldn't get there, 3PAR couldn't get there, Lefthand couldn't get, EqualLogic, I can go down the list. They were never able to reach that escape velocity, and maybe it is cloud, maybe cloud is that weird tailwind for people who can figure out how to take advantage of cloud and hybrid cloud, your thoughts? >> Yeah, I think it is, number one. I think also the companies that you mentioned at various times, and I'm a hardware industry dinosaur, I've been around forever. A lot of those companies you talk about the difficult moment from them was hey, we're a storage company, now we want to add compute or now we want to go into this part of the market that put them at odds with the guys they were partnering with. George, our CEO, has been absolutely maniacal with his vision of our path forward is managing data, period. Whatever that form takes, we don't need to be a compute company, we don't need to be a networking company, we want to be a data company. I think how that then drives the decisions, whether it's partnering with cloud, whether it's going into new markets with HCI, even if it's things about transforming the legacy data center from traditional data center and how it's managed on-prem to something that's all Flash driven and much more efficient and much more programmable than it was in the past, so it's easier to administer, those are the areas that we can go innovate, and as long as we're partnering with the right partners out in the industry, that makes us a very good viable destination for the customer without worrying about well, do we have a compute node, are we in the server business now, are we suddenly in the switch business? Those are things that are not even on our radar. >> Yeah, I mean, you guys are in a unique position from that standpoint. You're very large now, you're the largest independent storage company, so everybody wants to work with you. You don't bump up into these adjacencies, and you can make bets, you can place your chips in areas whereas some of the startups, there's tons of innovation, but it's really hard to hit that escape. The amount of resources that you need, the money you need for promotion, the talent war that's going on out there, the go-to-market challenges, the partner challenges, so you guys are in a pretty good position right now. >> We really are, and I think we've actually done a lot of the restructuring internally to continue that and capitalize on it. Probably the biggest change, which outside the company, most folks wouldn't notice immediately, is that we moved at the beginning of this year to a three distinct business unit structure where we're focusing on three parts of the business to go forward. We've got our cloud business unit, which is driving into, as I said, the hyperscalers under Anthony Lye. We've got cloud data center, which is more of the new technologies like HCI and Converge and object storage technology like StorageGRID, and that's, right now that's an incredibly fast growing business for us. Then, of course, we've got our traditional storage software infrastructure business where we have products like E-Series and modernizing the data center, which is primarily driven with this transition to Flash. You've got three BUs now that are maniacally focused on the different areas of the market where we see here's an immediate opportunity in Flash. Here's a slightly longer opportunity in things like hybrid cloud and HCI and Converge infrastructure and a much longer term bet was how does the cloud really become a piece where we're managing between all of those. It lets us be a lot nimble between it. It's almost like three subbusinesses where we're going to market. >> Yeah, Dave, and actually that aligns perfectly with the research we've been doing for over five years from server stand and true private cloud, you've got the hyperscale, you've got the transformation locally in spanning those two, and then you've got that transition from the traditional. >> Oh, I think it's a sound strategy, and it'll serve us well in the years to come. >> There's obviously a lot of noise about artificial intelligence in the marketplace. You've got some companies trying to position to be the platform for machine intelligence or artificial intelligence, what's NetApp's point of view on that? >> Well certainly, we share some of that, but again, I think at the end of the day for us, it's much more important about fine, wherever I'm capturing that artificial intelligence is not likely the place where I'm going to do a lot of the analytics and work on it, so it really does come down to, ya know, am I moving it up to the cloud to do that work, where am I making my big insights, where am I mining through it, and then how am I relating that back, whether it's at the edge or whether it's at the core data center, and again, we think with ONTAP, with the partners that we're going to market with for AI, for ML, IoT, that's the difference maker for us at the end of the day. It's not that we're just another storage company storing the telemetry data off of a car for AI, we're putting it into a format and a form that's usable quickly, efficiently, real time, where Tesla can go make a decision on the car right now, not days, weeks, months from now. >> All right, Bruce, well hey, thanks for coming on theCUBE. Really appreciate your time and good luck. >> Enjoyed having me, thank you. >> All right, great. >> Good to see you guys. >> All right, keep it right there everybody. We'll be back with our next guest. You're watching VeeamOn 2018, this is theCUBE.