>>Hey guys. Welcome back to the Cubes coverage of Ansible Fast 2022. This is day two of our wall to wall coverage. Lisa Martin here with John Ferer. John, we're seeing this world where companies are saying if we can't automate it, we need to, The automation market is transforming. There's been a lot of buzz about that. A lot of technical chops here at Ansible Fest. >>Yeah, I mean, we've got a great guest here coming on Cuba alumni, Dean Newman, future room. He travels every event he's got. He's got his nose to the grindstone ear to the ground. Great analysis. I mean, we're gonna get into why it's important. How does Ansible fit into the big picture? It's really gonna be a great segment. The >>Board do it well, John just did my job for me about, I'll introduce him again. Daniel Newman, one of our alumni is Back Principal Analyst at Future and Research. Great to have you back on the cube. >>Yeah, it's good to join you. Excited to be back in Chicago. I don't know if you guys knew this, but for 40 years, this was my hometown. Now I don't necessarily brag about that anymore. I'm, I live in Austin now. I'm a proud Texan, but I did grow up here actually out in the west suburbs. I got off the plane, I felt the cold air, and I almost turned around and said, Does this thing go back? Yeah. Cause I'm, I've, I've grown thin skin. It did not take me long. I, I like the warm, Come on, >>I'm the saying, I'm from California and I got off the plane Monday. I went, Whoa, I need a coat. And I was in Miami a week ago and it was 85. >>Oh goodness. >>Crazy. So you just flew in. Talk about what's going on, your take on, on Ansible. We've talked a lot with the community, with partners, with customers, a lot of momentum. The flywheel of the community is going around and round and round. What are some of your perspectives that you see? >>Yeah, absolutely. Well, let's you know, I'm gonna take a quick step back. We're entering an era where companies are gonna have to figure out how to do more with less. Okay? We've got exponential data growth, we've got more architectural complexity than ever before. Companies are trying to discern how to deal with many different environments. And just at a macro level, Red Hat is one of the companies that is almost certainly gonna be part of this multi-cloud hybrid cloud era. So that should initially give a lot of confidence to the buying group that are looking at how to automate their environments. You're automating workflows, but really with, with Ansible, we're focused on automating it, automating the network. So as companies are kind of dig out, we're entering this recessionary period, Okay, we're gonna call it what it is. The first thing that they're gonna look at is how do we tech our way out of it? >>I had a wonderful one-on-one conversation with ServiceNow ceo, Bill McDermott, and we saw ServiceNow was in focus this morning in the initial opening session. This is the integration, right? Ansible integrating with ServiceNow. What we need to see is infrastructure automation, layers and applications working in concert to basically enable enterprises to be up and running all the time. Let's first fix the problems that are most common. Let's, let's automate 'em, let's script them. And then at some point, let's have them self resolving, which we saw at the end with Project Wisdom. So as I see it, automation is that layer that enterprises, boards, technologists, all can agree upon are basically here's something that can make our business more efficient, more profitable, and it's gonna deal with this short term downturn in a way that tech is actually gonna be the answer. Just like Bill and I said, let's tech our way out of it. >>If you look at the Red Hat being bought by ibm, you see Project Wisdom Project, not a product, it's a project. Project Wisdom is the confluence of research and practitioners kind of coming together with ai. So bringing AI power to the Ansible is interesting. Red Hat, Linux, Rel OpenShift, I mean, Red Hat's kind of position, isn't it? Kind of be in that right spot where a puck might be coming maybe. I mean, what do you think? >>Yeah, as analysts, we're really good at predicting the, the recent past. It's a joke I always like to make, but Red Hat's been building toward the future. I think for some time. Project Wisdom, first of all, I was very encouraged with it. One of the things that many people in the market probably have commented on is how close is IBM in Red Hat? Now, again, it's a $34 billion acquisition that was made, but boy, the cultures of these two companies couldn't be more different. And of course, Red Hat kind of carries this, this sort of middle ground layer where they provide a lot of value in services to companies that maybe don't use IBM at, at, for the public cloud especially. This was a great indication of how you can take the power of IBM's research, which of course has some of the world's most prolific data scientists, engineers, building things for the future. >>You know, you see things like yesterday they launched a, you know, an AI solution. You know, they're building chips, semiconductors, and technologies that are gonna power the future. They're building quantum. Long story short, they have these really brilliant technologists here that could be adding value to Red Hat. And I don't know that the, the world has fully been able to appreciate that. So when, when they got on stage and they kind of say, Here's how IBM is gonna help power the next generation, I was immediately very encouraged by the fact that the two companies are starting to show signs of how they can collaborate to offer value to their customers. Because of course, as John kind of started off with, his question is, they've kind of been where the puck is going. Open source, Linux hybrid cloud, This is the future. In the future. Every company's multi-cloud. And I said in a one-on-one meeting this morning, every company is going to probably have workloads on every cloud, especially large enterprises. >>Yeah. And I think that the secret's gonna be how do you make that evolve? And one of the things that's coming out of the industry over the years, and looking back as historians, we would say, gotta have standards. Well, with cloud, now people standards might slow things down. So you're gonna start to figure out how does the community and the developers are thinking it'll be the canary in the coal mine. And I'd love to get your reaction on that, because we got Cuban next week. You're seeing people kind of align and try to win the developers, which, you know, I always laugh cuz like, you don't wanna win, you want, you want them on your team, but you don't wanna win them. It's like a, it's like, so developers will decide, >>Well, I, I think what's happening is there are multiple forces that are driving product adoption. And John, getting the developers to support the utilization and adoption of any sort of stack goes a long way. We've seen how sticky it can be, how sticky it is with many of the public cloud pro providers, how sticky it is with certain applications. And it's gonna be sticky here in these interim layers like open source automation. And Red Hat does have a very compelling developer ecosystem. I mean, if you sat in the keynote this morning, I said, you know, if you're not a developer, some of this stuff would've been fairly difficult to understand. But as a developer you saw them laughing at jokes because, you know, what was it the whole part about, you know, it didn't actually, the ping wasn't a success, right? And everybody started laughing and you know, I, I was sitting next to someone who wasn't technical and, and you know, she kinda goes, What, what was so funny? >>I'm like, well, he said it worked. Do you see that? It said zero data trans or whatever that was. So, but if I may just really quickly, one, one other thing I did wanna say about Project Wisdom, John, that the low code and no code to the full stack developer is a continuum that every technology company is gonna have to think deeply about as we go to the future. Because the people that tend to know the process that needs to be automated tend to not be able to code it. And so we've seen every automation company on the planet sort of figuring out and how to address this low code, no code environment. I think the power of this partnership between IBM Research and Red Hat is that they have an incredibly deep bench of capabilities to do things like, like self-training. Okay, you've got so much data, such significant size models and accuracy is a problem, but we need systems that can self teach. They need to be able self-teach, self learn, self-heal so that we can actually get to the crux of what automation is supposed to do for us. And that's supposed to take the mundane out and enable those humans that know how to code to work on the really difficult and hard stuff because the automation's not gonna replace any of that stuff anytime soon. >>So where do you think looking at, at the partnership and the evolution of it between IBM research and Red Hat, and you're saying, you know, they're, they're, they're finally getting this synergy together. How is it gonna affect the future of automation and how is it poised to give them a competitive advantage in the market? >>Yeah, I think the future or the, the competitive space is that, that is, is ecosystems and integration. So yesterday you heard, you know, Red Hat Ansible focusing on a partnership with aws. You know, this week I was at Oracle Cloud world and they're talking about running their database in aws. And, and so I'm kind of going around to get to the answer to your question, but I think collaboration is sort of the future of growth and innovation. You need multiple companies working towards the same goal to put gobs of resources, that's the technical term, gobs of resources towards doing really hard things. And so Ansible has been very successful in automating and securing and focusing on very certain specific workloads that need to be automated, but we need more and there's gonna be more data created. The proliferation, especially the edge. So you saw all this stuff about Rockwell, How do you really automate the edge at scale? You need large models that are able to look and consume a ton of data that are gonna be continuously learning, and then eventually they're gonna be able to deliver value to these companies at scale. IBM plus Red Hat have really great resources to drive this kind of automation. Having said that, I see those partnerships with aws, with Microsoft, with ibm, with ServiceNow. It's not one player coming to the table. It's a lot of players. They >>Gotta be Switzerland. I mean they have the Switzerland. I mean, but the thing about the Amazon deal is like that marketplace integration essentially puts Ansible once a client's in on, on marketplace and you get the central on the same bill. I mean, that's gonna be a money maker for Ansible. I >>Couldn't agree more, John. I think being part of these public cloud marketplaces is gonna be so critical and having Ansible land and of course AWS largest public cloud by volume, largest marketplace today. And my opinion is that partnership will be extensible to the other public clouds over time. That just makes sense. And so you start, you know, I think we've learned this, John, you've done enough of these interviews that, you know, you start with the biggest, with the highest distribution and probability rates, which in this case right now is aws, but it'll land on in Azure, it'll land in Google and it'll continue to, to grow. And that kind of adoption, streamlining make it consumption more consumable. That's >>Always, I think, Red Hat and Ansible, you nailed it on that whole point about multicloud, because what happens then is why would I want to alienate a marketplace audience to use my product when it could span multiple environments, right? So you saw, you heard that Stephanie yesterday talk about they, they didn't say multiple clouds, multiple environments. And I think that is where I think I see this layer coming in because some companies just have to work on all clouds. That's the way it has to be. Why wouldn't you? >>Yeah. Well every, every company will probably end up with some workloads in every cloud. I just think that is the fate. Whether it's how we consume our SaaS, which a lot of people don't think about, but it always tends to be running on another hyperscale public cloud. Most companies tend to be consuming some workloads from every cloud. It's not always direct. So they might have a single control plane that they tend to lead the way with, but that is only gonna continue to change. And every public cloud company seems to be working on figuring out what their niche is. What is the one thing that sort of drives whether, you know, it is, you know, traditional, we know the commoditization of traditional storage network compute. So now you're seeing things like ai, things like automation, things like the edge collaboration tools, software being put into the, to the forefront because it's a different consumption model, it's a different margin and economic model. And then of course it gives competitive advantages. And we've seen that, you know, I came back from Google Cloud next and at Google Cloud next, you know, you can see they're leaning into the data AI cloud. I mean, that is their focus, like data ai. This is how we get people to come in and start using Google, who in most cases, they're probably using AWS or Microsoft today. >>It's a great specialty cloud right there. That's a big use case. I can run data on Google and run something on aws. >>And then of course you've got all kinds of, and this is a little off topic, but you got sovereignty, compliance, regulatory that tends to drive different clouds over, you know, global clouds like Tencent and Alibaba. You know, if your workloads are in China, >>Well, this comes back down at least to the whole complexity issue. I mean, it has to get complex before it gets easier. And I think that's what we're seeing companies opportunities like Ansible to be like, Okay, tame, tame the complexity. >>Yeah. Yeah, I totally agree with you. I mean, look, when I was watching the demonstrations today, my take is there's so many kind of simple, repeatable and mundane tasks in everyday life that enterprises need to, to automate. Do that first, you know? Then the second thing is working on how do you create self-healing, self-teaching, self-learning, You know, and, and I realize I'm a little broken of a broken record at this, but these are those first things to fix. You know, I know we want to jump to the future where we automate every task and we have multi-term conversational AI that is booking our calendars and driving our cars for us. But in the first place, we just need to say, Hey, the network's down. Like, let's make sure that we can quickly get access back to that network again. Let's make sure that we're able to reach our different zones and locations. Let's make sure that robotic arm is continually doing the thing it's supposed to be doing on the schedule that it's been committed to. That's first. And then we can get to some of these really intensive deep metaverse state of automation that we talk about. Self-learning, data replication, synthetic data. I'm just gonna throw terms around. So I sound super smart. >>In your customer conversations though, from an looking at the automation journey, are you finding most of them, or some percentage is, is wanting to go directly into those really complex projects rather than starting with the basics? >>I don't know that you're, you're finding that the customers want to do that? I think it's the architecture that often ends up being a problem is we as, as the vendor side, will tend to talk about the most complex problems that they're able to solve before companies have really started solving the, the immediate problems that are before them. You know, it's, we talk about, you know, the metaphor of the cloud is a great one, but we talk about the cloud, like it's ubiquitous. Yeah. But less than 30% of our workloads are in the public cloud. Automation is still in very early days and in many industries it's fairly nascent. And doing things like self-healing networks is still something that hasn't even been able to be deployed on an enterprise-wide basis, let alone at the industrial layer. Maybe at the company's on manufacturing PLAs or in oil fields. Like these are places that have difficult to reach infrastructure that needs to be running all the time. We need to build systems and leverage the power of automation to keep that stuff up and running. That's, that's just business value, which by the way is what makes the world go running. Yeah. Awesome. >>A lot of customers and users are struggling to find what's the value in automating certain process, What's the ROI in it? How do you help them get there so that they understand how to start, but truly to make it a journey that is a success. >>ROI tends to be a little bit nebulous. It's one of those things I think a lot of analysts do. Things like TCO analysis Yeah. Is an ROI analysis. I think the businesses actually tend to know what the ROI is gonna be because they can basically look at something like, you know, when you have an msa, here's the downtime, right? Business can typically tell you, you know, I guarantee you Amazon could say, Look for every second of downtime, this is how much commerce it costs us. Yeah. A company can generally say, if it was, you know, we had the energy, the windmills company, like they could say every minute that windmill isn't running, we're creating, you know, X amount less energy. So there's a, there's a time value proposition that companies can determine. Now the question is, is about the deployment. You know, we, I've seen it more nascent, like cybersecurity can tend to be nascent. >>Like what does a breach cost us? Well there's, you know, specific costs of actually getting the breach cured or paying for the cybersecurity services. And then there's the actual, you know, ephemeral costs of brand damage and of risks and customer, you know, negative customer sentiment that potentially comes out of it. With automation, I think it's actually pretty well understood. They can look at, hey, if we can do this many more cycles, if we can keep our uptime at this rate, if we can reduce specific workforce, and I'm always very careful about this because I don't believe automation is about replacement or displacement, but I do think it is about up-leveling and it is about helping people work on things that are complex problems that machines can't solve. I mean, said that if you don't need to put as many bodies on something that can be immediately returned to the organization's bottom line, or those resources can be used for something more innovative. So all those things are pretty well understood. Getting the automation to full deployment at scale, though, I think what often, it's not that roi, it's the timeline that gets misunderstood. Like all it projects, they tend to take longer. And even when things are made really easy, like with what Project Wisdom is trying to do, semantically enable through low code, no code and the ability to get more accuracy, it just never tends to happen quite as fast. So, but that's not an automation problem, That's just the crux of it. >>Okay. What are some of the, the next things on your plate? You're quite a, a busy guy. We, you, you were at Google, you were at Oracle, you're here today. What are some of the next things that we can expect from Daniel Newman? >>Oh boy, I moved Really, I do move really quickly and thank you for that. Well, I'm very excited. I'm taking a couple of work personal days. I don't know if you're a fan, but F1 is this weekend. I'm the US Grand Prix. Oh, you're gonna Austin. So I will be, I live in Austin. Oh. So I will be in Austin. I will be at the Grand Prix. It is work because it, you know, I'm going with a number of our clients that have, have sponsorships there. So I'll be spending time figuring out how the data that comes off of these really fun cars is meaningfully gonna change the world. I'll actually be talking to Splunk CEO at the, at the race on Saturday morning. But yeah, I got a lot of great things. I got a, a conversation coming up with the CEO of Twilio next week. We got a huge week of earnings ahead and so I do a lot of work on that. So I'll be on Bloomberg next week with Emily Chang talking about Microsoft and Google. Love talking to Emily, but just as much love being here on, on the queue with you >>Guys. Well we like to hear that. Who you're rooting for F one's your favorite driver. I, >>I, I like Lando. Do you? I'm Norris. I know it's not necessarily a fan favorite, but I'm a bit of a McLaren guy. I mean obviously I have clients with Oracle and Red Bull with Ball Common Ferrari. I've got Cly Splunk and so I have clients in all. So I'm cheering for all of 'em. And on Sunday I'm actually gonna be in the Williams Paddock. So I don't, I don't know if that's gonna gimme me a chance to really root for anything, but I'm always, always a big fan of the underdog. So maybe Latifi. >>There you go. And the data that comes off the how many central unbeliev, the car, it's crazy's. Such a scientific sport. Believable. >>We could have Christian, I was with Christian Horner yesterday, the team principal from Reside. Oh yeah, yeah. He was at the Oracle event and we did a q and a with him and with the CMO of, it's so much fun. F1 has been unbelievable to watch the momentum and what a great, you know, transitional conversation to to, to CX and automation of experiences for fans as the fan has grown by hundreds of percent. But just to circle back full way, I was very encouraged with what I saw today. Red Hat, Ansible, IBM Strong partnership. I like what they're doing in their expanded ecosystem. And automation, by the way, is gonna be one of the most robust investment areas over the next few years, even as other parts of tech continue to struggle that in cyber security. >>You heard it here. First guys, investment in automation and cyber security straight from two analysts. I got to sit between. For our guests and John Furrier, I'm Lisa Martin, you're watching The Cube Live from Chicago, Ansible Fest 22. John and I will be back after a short break. SO'S stick around.

The Cube Presents UI Path Forward five. Brought to you by UI Path. >>I Ready, Dave Ante with David Nicholson. We're back at UI Path forward. Five. We're getting ready for the big guns to come in, the two co CEOs, but we have a really special analyst panel now. We're excited to have Daniel Newman here. He's the Principal analyst at Future and Research. And Andy Dai, who's the Vice president and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research. Guys, good to see you. Thanks for making some time to come on the queue. >>Glad to be here. Always >>Good. So, >>Andy, you're deep into ai. You and I have been talking about having you come to our maor office. I'm, I'm really excited that we're able to meet here. What have you seen at the show so far? What are your big takeaways? You know, day one and a half? >>Yeah, well, so first of all, I'm d AI because my last name has AI and I >>Already talk about, >>So, but, but all jokes aside, there are a lot of good things I heard from the conference, right? I mean, one is the last two years because of the pandemic, the growth has been phenomenal for, for a lot of those robotic automation intelligent automation companies, right? So because the low hanging through position making processes have been already taken care of where they going to find the next growth spot, right? That was the question I was looking answers to. And they have some inverse, one good acquisition. They had intelligent document processing, but more importantly they're trying to move from detrimental rules based RPA automation into AI based, more probabilistic subjective decision making areas. That's a huge market, tons of money involved in it, but it's going to be a harder problem to solve. Love to see the execut. >>Well, it's also a big pivot for the, for the company. It started out as sort of a a point product and now is moving to, to platform. But to end of the macro is not in UI pass favor. It's not really in any, you know, tech company's favor, but especially, you know, a company that's going into a transition transitioning to go to market cetera. What are you seeing, what's your take on the macro? I mean, I know you follow the financial markets very closely. There's a lot of negative sentiment right now. Are you as negative as the sentiment? >>Well, the, the broad sentiment comes with some pretty good historical data, right? We've had probably one of the worst market years in multiple decades. And of course we're coming into a situation where all the, the factors are really not in our favor. You've got in interest rates climbing, you've got wildly high inflation, you've had a, you know, helicopters dumping money on the economy for a period of time. And we're, we're gonna get into this great reset is what I keep talking about. But, you know, I had the opportunity to talk to Bill McDermott recently on one of my shows and Bill's CEO of ServiceNow, in case anybody there doesn't know, but >>Former, >>Yeah, really well spoken guy. But you know, him and I kind of went back and forth and we came up with this kind of concept that we were gonna have to tech our way out of what's about to come. You can almost be certain recession is gonna come. But for companies like UiPath, I actually think there's a tremendous opportunity because the bottom line is companies are gonna be looking at their bottom line. A year ago it was all about growth a deal, like the Adobe Figma deal would've been, been lauded, people would've been excited. Now everybody's looking at going, how are they paying that price? Everybody's discounting the future growth. They're looking at the situation, say, what's gonna happen next? Well, bottom line is now they're looking at that. How profitable are we? Are you making money? Are you growing that bottom line? Are you creating earnings? We're >>Gonna come in >>Era, we're gonna come into an era where companies are gonna say, you know what? People are expensive. The inflationary cost of hiring is expensive. You know, what's less expensive? Investing in the cloud, investing in ai, investing in workflow and automation and things that actually enable businesses to expand, keep costs somewhat contained fixed costs, and scale their businesses and get themselves in a good position for when the economy turns to return to >>Grow. So since prior to the pandemic cloud containers, m l and RPA slash automation have been the big four that from a spending data standpoint have been above the line above all kind of the rest in terms of spending momentum up until last quarter, AI and RPA slash automation declined. So my question is, are those two areas discretionary or more discretionary than other technology investments you heard? >>Well, I, I think we're in a, a period where companies are, I won't say they've stopped spending, but you listened to Mark Benioff, you talked about the elongated sales cycle, right? I think companies right now are being very reflective and they're doing a lot of introspection. They're looking at their business and saying, We hired a lot of people. We hired really fast. Do we need to cut? Do we need to freeze? We've made investments in technology, are we getting a return on 'em? We all know that the analytics, whether it's you know, digital adoption platforms or just analytics in the business, say, What is all this money we've been spending doing for us and how productive are we? But I will tell you universally, the companies are looking at workflow automations that enable things. Whether that's onboarding customers, whether that's delivering experiences, whether that's, you know, full, you know, price to quote technologies, automate, automate, automate. By doing that, they're gonna bring down the cost, they're gonna control themselves as best as possible in a tough macro. And then when they come out of it, these processes are gonna be beneficiary in a, in a growth environment even more so, >>Andy UiPath rocketed to a leadership position, largely due to the, the product and the simplicity of the product relative to the competition. And then as you well know, they expanded into, you know, platform. So how do you see the competitive environment? A UI path is again focusing on that platform play Automation Anywhere couldn't get to public market. They had turnover at the go to market level. Chris Riley joined a lot of, lot of hope left Microsoft joined into the fray, obviously is having an impact that you're certainly seeing spending momentum around Microsoft. Then SAP service Now Salesforce, every software company the planet thinks they should get every dollar spent on software. You know, they, they see UI pass momentum and they say, Hey, we can, we can take some of that off the table. How do you see the competitive environment right now? >>So first of all, in in my mind, UI path is slightly better because of a couple of reasons. One, as you said, it's ease of use. >>They're able to customize it variable to what they want. So that's a real easy development advantage. And then the, when you develop the bots and equal, it takes on an average anywhere between two to maybe six weeks, generally speaking, in some industries regulated government might take more so that it's faster, quicker, easier than others in a sense. So people love using that. The second advantage of what they have in my mind is that not only they are available as a managed SA solution on, on cloud, on Azure Cloud, but also they have this version that you can install, maintain, manage any way you want, whether it's a public cloud or, or your own data center and so on so forth. That's not available with almost, not all of them have it, Few have it, but not all of the competitors have it. So they have an advantage there as well. Where it could become useful would be one of the areas that they haven't even expanded is the government. >>Government is the what, >>Sorry? The government. Yeah, related solutions, right? Defense, government, all of those areas when you go, which haven't even started for various reasons. For example, they're worried about laying off people, worried about cost, worried about automating things. There's a lot of hurdles to overcome. But once you overcome that, if you want to go there, nobody's going to use, or most of them will be very of using something on the cloud. So they have a solution for version variation of that. So they are set up to come to that next level. I mean, I don't know if you guys were at the keynote, the CEO talked about how their plans to go from 1 billion to 5 billion in ar. So they're set up to capture the market. But again, as you said, every big software company saw their momentum, they want to get into it, they want to compete with them. So >>Well, to get to 5 billion, they've gotta accelerate growth. I mean, if you do 20% cer over the next, you know, through the end of the decade, they don't quite get there. So they're gonna have to, you know, they lowered their forecast out of the high 20 or mid twenties to 18%. They're gonna have to accelerate that. And we've seen that before. We see it in cloud where cloud, you know, accelerates growth even though you got the lower large numbers. Go ahead Dave. >>Yeah, so Daniel, then how do we, how do we think of this market? How do we measure the TAM for total addressable market for automation? I mean, you know, what's that? What's that metric that shows how unautomated are we, how inefficient are we? Is there a, is there a 5% efficiency that can be gained? Is there a 40% efficiency that can be gained? Because if you're talking about, you know, how much much of the market can UI path capture, first of all, how big is the market? And then is UI path poised to take advantage of that compared to the actual purveyors of the software that people are interacting with? I'm interacting with an E R p, an ER P system that has built into it the ability to automate processes. Then why do I need 'EM UI path? So first, how do you evaluate TAM? Second, how do you evaluate whether UI Path is gonna have a chance in this market where RPAs built into the applications that we actually use? Yeah, >>I think that TAM is evolving, and I don't have it in front of me right now, but what I'll tell you about the TAM is there's sort of the legacy RPA tam and then there's what I would sort of evolve to call the IPA and workflow automation tam that is being addressed by many of these software companies that you asked in the competitive equation. In the, in the, in the question, what we're seeing is a world where companies are gonna say, if we can automate it, we will automate it. That's, it's actually non-negotiable. Now, the process in the ability to a arrive at automation at scale has long been a battle front within the nor every organization. We've been able to automate things for a long time. Why has it more been done? It's the same thing with analytics. There's been numerous studies in analytics that have basically shown companies that have been able to embrace, adopt, and implement analytics, have significantly better performances, better performances on revenue growth, better performances and operational cost management, better performances with customer experience. >>Guess what? Not everybody, every company can get to this. Now there's a couple of things behind this and I'm gonna, I'm gonna try to close my answer out cause I'm getting a little long winded here. But the first thing is automation is a cultural challenge in most organizations. We've done endless research on companies digitally transforming and automating their business. And what we've found is largely the technology are somewhat comparable. Meaning, you know, I, I've heard what he is saying about some of the advantages of partnership with Microsoft, very compelling. But you know what, all these companies that have automation offerings, whether it's you know, through a Salesforce, Microsoft, whether it's a specialized rpa like an Automation Anywhere or a UI path, their solutions can be deployed and successful. The company's ability to take the investment, implement it successfully and get buy in across the organization tends to always be the hurdle. An old CIO stat, 50% of IT projects fail. That stat is still almost accurate today. It's not 50% of technology is bad, but those failures are because the culture doesn't get behind it. And automation's a tricky one because there's a lot of people that feel on the outside rather than the inside of an automation transformation. >>So, Andy, so how do you think about the, to Dave's question, the SAPs the service nows trying to, you know, at least take some red crumbs off the table. They, they're gonna, they're gonna create these automation stove pipes, but in Automation Anywhere or, or UI path is a horizontal play, are they not? And so how do you think about that progression? Well, so >>First of all, all of this other companies, when they, they, whether it's a build, acquire, what have you, these guys already have what, five, seven years on them. So it's gonna be difficult for them to catch up with the Center of Excellence knowledge on the use cases, what they got to catch up with them. That's gonna be a lot of catch up. Just to give you an idea, Microsoft Power Automate has been there for a while, right? They're supposedly doing well as well, but they still choose to partner with the UiPath as well to get them to the next level. So there's going to be competition coming from all areas, but it's, it's about, you know, highlights. >>So, so who is the competition? Is it Microsoft chipping away an individual productivity? Is it a service now? Who's got a platform play? Is it themselves just being able to execute >>All plus also, but I think the, the most, I wouldn't say competition, but it's more people are not aware of what areas need to be automated, right? For example, one of the things I was talking about with a couple of customers is, so they have a automation hub where you can put the, the process and and task that need to be automated and then you prioritize and start working on it. And, and almost all of them that I speak to, they keep saying that most of the process and task identification that they need to do for automation, it's manual right now. So, which means it's limited, you have to go and execute it. When people find out and tell you that's what need to be fixed, you try to go and fix that. But imagine if there is a way, I mean the have solutions they're showcasing now if it becomes popular, if you're able to identify tasks that are very inefficient or or process that's very inefficient, automatically score them up saying that, you know what, this is what is going to be ROI and you execute on it. That's going to be huge. So >>I think ts right, there's no shortage of, of a market. I would, I would agree with you Rob Sland this morning talked about the progression. He sort of compared it to e R P of the early days. I sort of have a love hate with E R P cuz of the complexity of the implementation and the, and the cost. However, first of all, a couple points and I love to get your thoughts for you. If you went back, I know 25 years, you, you wouldn't have been able to pick SAP out of a lineup and say that's gonna be the leader in E R P and they ended up, you know, doing really, really well. But the more interesting angle is if you could have figured out the customers that were implementing e r p in, in a really high quality fashion, those are the companies that really did well. You buy their stocks, they really took off cuz they were killing their other industry competitors. So, fast forward to automation. Will automation live up to its hype and your opinion, will it be as transformative and will the, the practitioners of automation see the same type of uplift in their markets, in their market caps, in their competitiveness as did sort of the early adopters and the excellent adopters of brp? What are your thoughts? Well, >>I think it's an interesting comparison. Maybe answer it slightly different way. I think the future is that automation is a non-negotiable in every enterprise organization. I think if you're a large organization, we have absolutely filled our, our organizations with waste too much overhead, too much expense, too much technical debt and automation is an answer. This is the way we want to interact, right? We want a chat bot that actually gives us good answers that can answer on a Tuesday at 11:00 PM at night when we want to know if the right dog food, you know, and I'm saying that, you know, that's what we want. That's the outcome we want. And businesses have to be driven by the outcome. Here's what I'm not sure about, Dave, is we have an era where over the last three to five years, a lot of products have become companies and a lot of 'EM products became companies ended up in public markets. >>And so the RPA space is one of those areas that got this explosive amount of growth. And you look at it and there's two ways. Is this horizontally a business rpa or is this going to be something that's gonna be a target of those Microsofts and those SAPs and say, Look, we need hyper automation to be deeply integrated at the E R P crm, hcm SCM level. We're gonna build by this or we're gonna build this. And you're already hearing it in the partnerships, but this is how I think the story ends. I I think either the companies like UiPath get much bigger, they get much more rounded in their, in their offerings. Or you're gonna have a large company like a Microsoft come in and say, you know what? Buy it rather >>Than build can they can, they can, can this company, maybe not so much here, but can a company like Automation Anywhere stay acquisition? Well, >>I use the, I use the Service now as an, as a parallel because they're a company that I thought would always end up inside of a bigger company and now you're like, I think they're too big. I think they've they've dropped >>That, that chart. Yeah, they're acquisition proof. I would agree. But these guys aren't yet Nora's automation. They work for >>A while and it's not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes getting bit bought is good, but what I mean is it's gonna be core and these big companies know it cuz they're all talking >>About, but as independent analysts, we want to see independent companies. >>I wanna see the right thing. >>It just makes it fun. >>The right thing >>Customers. Yeah, but you know, okay, Oracle buy more customers, more >>Customers. >>I'm kidding. Yeah, I guess it's the right thing. It just makes it more fun when you have really good independent competitors that >>We >>Absolutely so, and, and spend way more on r and d than these big companies who spend a lot more on stock buyback. But I know you gotta go. Thanks so much for spending some time, making time for Cube Andy. Great to see you. Good to see as well. All right, we are wrapping up day one, Dave Blan and Dave Nicholson live. You can hear the action behind us, forward in five on the Cube, right back.

>>it's mhm Okay, we're here in the cube unpacking the HPD Green Lake announcements, Daniel neumann series Principal analyst and founder of your um research Damn. You're good to see you again, >>Dave always going to jump jump on with you. It's good to have a minute sit down. So >>what's your favorite announcement from from Green Lake? What do you, what do you make of what they announced today? >>Well, I love the opportunity for the company to position itself up against a growth monster like snowflake. I mean looking at the ability to handle the breath of the data at scale and offer a data service that can compete in that space. That's exactly the kind of narrative that I think the markets, the outside world is going to want to hear from HP is how you're not just competing with your traditional, the doubles, the Ciscos, the IBM, you're going after the, the mega growth cloud players and data services. And for me that's really attractive because I've been really on top of hb saying, hey, you're doing a lot of the right things, but people have to feel and see the growth. >>To me this is a major move toward the tam expansion strategy. It's kind of the job of every Ceo right, is to expand the tam. And I'm interested to see how HP e plays this and communicates this because, you know, traditionally it's a hardware company, uh moving into data management Data services. That's an enormous market. We'll talk about how important data is but the data management is just huge. And to do it in a cloud like fashion, how do you see that as potentially expanding the total available market for HP? >>Well, first, let's just almost walking back a second, Dave HP is a cloud player. Okay. And that's the story that it is trying to get out there. It is not a hardware player that's tinkering in software. Hp has done software, this isn't its first go. But if you want to be a cloud player, you look at the big hyper scale as you look at the AWS, as you look at the google, you look at as the google built, not just on hardware, it's built that big C and I've had this conversation before, all the things that make up the cloud, it's the hardware, it's the software, it's the services, the platform, you got to put all these things together. And if HP wants to be a public cloud experience, taking advantage of where we're moving with hybrid and offering it private, it has to have that same subset of services. Look at the investment, whether it's been a W S or google or Azure in data services, HP has to be in this space. So, seeing this come to fruition, in my opinion, is directionally the right path, getting it to be well received, winning the right customers and showing the growth from these investments is going to be the next important phase. >>Do you see that as a service model as being more margin friendly for HP and and if so why? Well, I think >>universally we found there's two major improvements that moving to the as a service. One is, it does over time create expanded operational margin. It's just economies of scale. You can utilize every resource more efficiently. Of course there are Capex expenses, You've seen the amount that hyper skeletons have had to spend to expand their their footprints globally. So there is some Capex upfront but that also on the back end creates the depreciation and different bottom line profit creators. At the same time though, as a service is huge for the multiples and evaluation, which by the way is one of the things that has been a real in focus point for H. P. E. Is how does it up that that number, You know, you look at the snowflakes, not even profitable but getting huge. You know, um, you know, huge multiples on revenue. And then you see even the other hyper scale is all getting bigger plays on revenue and on E. P. S. Most of it has to do with the fact that recurring revenue is beloved by investors, but it's also really sticky and creates a ton of stability within the company for the culture of the business to say, hey, we have customers, they're going to stay with us. They're not going anywhere. They're subscribed to our services. They're buying into what we're doing and by the way, net revenue expansion as you get them sticky, you layer in new services. We've seen how this has worked across the board with public cloud, with software with SAS, can HP do it as well? And of course it's been something they're doing, but it's something we need to watch really closely and I think it's an opportunity that the company needs to lean into it. And I think they will, >>you mentioned snowflake a couple times, there's a there's a, there's a discussion in the industry, it was sort of prompted by martin casado and sarah wang about repatriation and particularly as it relates to software, saas companies uh that the the the cloud bill is so high at some point, they're giving away margin, so they're going to have to come back on prem, I'm not sure that to date that has applied to the general audience of customer, although there's a lot of debate as well between the expensive cloud, obviously, you know, egress charges. So it's hard sometimes to squint through that when you think about HP E bringing Green Lake to market at scale bringing repeatable processes, driving automation, etcetera. How do you think that that cloud repatriation argument, which frankly, I haven't seen a huge cloud repatriation in in the macro, but how do you think that will play out over time, Do you feel like the on prem play can be as cost effective or more cost effective or maybe you feel like it is already today? >>Well, I also listen to the injuries and Horowitz uh, repatriation narrative as well. I think there are economies of scale with cloud that companies have to look at closely. But I also think that has a lot to do with why hybrid has been sort of the story of the day. That's why hyper sailors are going on prem or, and that's why I'm primes are moving to the cloud is because it's always going to be some, you know, some group of different placements of workloads to ultimately get to that optimized result. And so, you know, when you look at, you know, sort of what you asked in my opinion, you know, ultimately it's all about the efficiency of your organization trying to accomplish what your business is. And will there be some repatriation of workloads possibly. But there will be a very important hybrid mix. And I think we're gonna continue to see that trend and I think that's exactly where everyone's going in. Hp is going as well. >>All right, then we've got to leave it there. Thanks so much for your insights, appreciate it. We're gonna definitely have you back you and I are going to do some cool stuff together. So we'll talk next time. Thanks all right, and thank you for watching, this is Dave Volonte for the keeps coverage of H P E Green Lakes announcement, keep it right there. Mm

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante semiconductors are the heart of technology innovation for decades technology improvements have marched the cadence of silicon advancements in performance cost power and packaging in the past 10 years the dynamics of the semiconductor industry have changed dramatically soaring factory costs device volume explosions fabulous chip companies greater programmability compressed time to tape out a lot more software content the looming presence of china these and other factors have changed the power structure of the semiconductor business chips today power every aspect of our lives and have led to a global semiconductor shortage that's been well covered but we've never seen anything like it before we believe silicon's success in the next 20 years will be determined by volume manufacturing capabilities design innovation public policy geopolitical dynamics visionary leadership and innovative business models that can survive the intense competition in one of the most challenging businesses in the world hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis it's our pleasure to welcome daniel newman in one of the leading analysts in the technology business and founder of futurum research daniel welcome to the program thanks so much dave great to see you thanks for having me big topic yeah i'll say i'm really looking forward to this and so here's some of the topics that we want to cover today if we have time changes in the semiconductor industry i've said they've been dramatic the shift to nofap companies we're going to talk about volume manufacturing those shifts that have occurred largely due to the arm model we want to cover intel and dig into that and what it has to do to to survive and thrive these changes and then we want to take a look at how alternative processors are impacting the world people talk about is moore's law dead is it alive and well daniel you have strong perspectives on all of this including nvidia love to get your thoughts on on that plus talk about the looming china threat as i mentioned in in the intro but daniel before we get into it do these topics they sound okay how do you see the state of the semiconductor industry today where have we come from where are we and where are we going at the macro level there are a lot of different narratives that are streaming alongside and they're not running in parallel so much as they're running and converging towards one another but it gradually different uh you know degrees so the last two years has welcomed a semiconductor conversation that we really hadn't had and that was supply chain driven the covid19 pandemic brought pretty much unprecedented desire demand thirst or products that are powered by semiconductors and it wasn't until we started running out of laptops of vehicles of servers that the whole world kind of put the semiconductor in focus again like it was just one of those things dave that we as a society it's sort of taken for granted like if you need a laptop you go buy a laptop if you needed a vehicle there'd always be one on the lot um but as we've seen kind of this exponentialism that's taken place throughout the pandemic what we ended up realizing is that semiconductors are eating the world and in fact the next industrial the entire industrial itself the complex is powered by semiconductor technology so everything we we do and we want to do right you went from a vehicle that might have had 50 or 100 worth of semiconductors on a few different parts to one that might have 700 800 different chips in it thousands of dollars worth of semi of semiconductors so you know across the board though yes you're dealing with the dynamics of the shortage you're dealing with the dynamics of innovation you're dealing with moore's law and sort of coming to the end which is leading to new process we're dealing with the foundry versus fab versus invention and product development uh situation so there's so many different concurrent semiconductor narratives that are going on dave and we can talk about any of them and all of them and i'm sure as we do we'll overlap all these different themes you know maybe you can solve this mystery for me there's this this this chip shortage and you can't invent vehicle inventory is so tight but yet when you listen to uh the the ads if the the auto manufacturers are pounding the advertising maybe they're afraid of tesla they don't want to lose their brand awareness but anyway so listen it's by the way a background i want to get a little bit academic here but but bear with me i want to introduce actually reintroduce the concept of wright's law to our audience we know we all know about moore's law but the earlier instantiation actually comes from theodore wright t.p wright he was this engineer in the airplane industry and the math is a little bit abstract to apply but roughly translated says as the cumulative number of units produced doubles your cost per unit declines by a fixed percentage now in airplanes that was around 15 percent in semiconductors we think that numbers more like 20 25 when you add the performance improvements you get from silicon advancements it translates into something like 33 percent cost cost declines when you can double your cumulative volume so that's very important because it confers strategic advantage to the company with the largest volume so it's a learning curve dynamic and it's like andy jassy says daniel there's no compression algorithm for experience and it definitely applies here so if you apply wright's law to what's happening in the industry today we think we can get a better understanding of for instance why tsmc is dominating and why intel is struggling any quick thoughts on that well you have to take every formula like that in any sort of standard mathematics and kind of throw it out the window when you're dealing with the economic situation we are right now i'm not i'm not actually throwing it out the window but what i'm saying is that when supply and demand get out of whack some of those laws become a little bit um more difficult to sustain over the long term what i will say about that is we have certainly seen this found um this fabulous model explode over the last few years you're seeing companies that can focus on software frameworks and innovation that aren't necessarily getting caught up in dealing with the large capital expenditures and overhead the ability to as you suggested in the topics here partner with a company like arm that's developing innovation and then and then um you know offering it uh to everybody right and for a licensee and then they can quickly build we're seeing what that's doing with companies like aws that are saying we're going to just build it alibaba we're just going to build it these aren't chip makers these aren't companies that were even considered chip makers they are now today competing as chip makers so there's a lot of different dynamics going back to your comment about wright's law like i said as we normalize and we figure out this situation on a global scale um i do believe that the who can manufacture the most will certainly continue to have significant competitive advantages yeah no so that's a really interesting point that you're bringing up because one of the things that it leads me to think is that the chip shortage could actually benefit intel i think will benefit intel so i want to introduce this some other data and then get your thoughts on this very simply the chart on the left shows pc shipments which peaked in in 2011 and then began at steady decline until covid and they've the pcs as we know have popped up in terms of volume in the past year and looks like they'll be up again this year the chart on the right is cumulative arm shipments and so as we've reported we think arm wafer volumes are 10x those of x86 volumes and and as such the arm ecosystem has far better cost structure than intel and that's why pat gelsinger was called in to sort of save the day so so daniel i just kind of again opened up this this can of worms but i think you're saying long term volume is going to be critical that's going to confer low cost advantages but in the in in the near to mid-term intel could actually benefit from uh from this chip shortage well intel is the opportunity to position itself as a leader in solving the repatriation crisis uh this will kind of carry over when we talk more about china and taiwan and that relationship and what's going on there we've really identified a massive gap in our uh in america supply chain in the global supply chain because we went from i don't have the stat off hand but i have a rough number dave and we can validate this later but i think it was in like the 30-ish high 30ish percentile of manufacturing of chips were done here in the united states around 1990 and now we're sub 10 as of 2020. so we we offshored almost all of our production and so when we hit this crisis and we needed more manufacturing volume we didn't have it ready part of the problem is you get people like elon musk that come out and make comments to the media like oh it'll be fixed later this year well you can't build a fab in a year you can't build a fab and start producing volume and the other problem is not all chips are the same so not every fab can produce every chip and when you do have fabs that are capable of producing multiple chips it costs millions of dollars to change the hardware and to actually change the process so it's not like oh we're going to build 28 today because that's what ford needs to get all those f-150s out of the lot and tomorrow we're going to pump out more sevens for you know a bunch of hp pcs it's a major overhaul every time you want to retool so there's a lot of complexity here but intel is the one domestic company us-based that has basically raised its hand and said we're going to put major dollars into this and by the way dave the arm chart you showed me could have a very big implication as to why intel wants to do that yeah so right because that's that's a big part of of foundry right is is get those volumes up so i want to hold that thought because i just want to introduce one more data point because one of the things we often talk about is the way in which alternative processors have exploded onto the scene and this chart here if you could bring that up patrick thank you shows the way in which i think you're pointing out intel is responding uh by leveraging alternative fat but once again you know kind of getting getting serious about manufacturing chips what the chart shows is the performance curve it's on a log scale for in the blue line is x86 and the orange line is apple's a series and we're using that as a proxy for sort of the curve that arm is on and it's in its performance over time culminating in the a15 and it measures trillions of operations per second so if you take the traditional x86 curve of doubling every 18 to 24 months that comes out roughly to about 40 percent improvement per year in performance and that's diminishing as we all know to around 30 percent a year because the moore's law is waning the orange line is powered by arm and it's growing at over a hundred percent really 110 per year when you do the math and that's when you combine the cpu the the the neural processing unit the the the xpu the dsps the accelerators et cetera so we're seeing apple use arm aws to you to your point is building chips on on graviton and and and tesla's using our list is long and this is one reason why so daniel this curve is it feels like it's the new performance curve in the industry yeah we are certainly in an era where companies are able to take control of the innovation curve using the development using the open ecosystem of arm having more direct control and price control and of course part of that massive arm number has to do with you know mobile devices and iot and devices that have huge scale but at the same time a lot of companies have made the decision either to move some portion of their product development on arm or to move entirely on arm part of why it was so attractive to nvidia part of the reason that it's under so much scrutiny that that deal um whether that deal will end up getting completed dave but we are seeing an era where we want we i said lust for power i talked about lust for semiconductors our lust for our technology to do more uh whether that's software-defined vehicles whether that's the smartphones we keep in our pocket or the desktop computer we use we want these machines to be as powerful and fast and responsive and scalable as possible if you can get 100 where you can get 30 improvement with each year and generation what is the consumer going to want so i think companies are as normal following the demand of consumers and what's available and at the same time there's some economic benefits they're they're able to realize as well i i don't want to i don't want to go too deep into nvidia arm but what do you handicap that that the chances that that acquisition actually happens oh boy um right now there's a lot of reasons it should happen but there are some reasons that it shouldn't i still kind of consider it a coin toss at this point because fundamentally speaking um you know it should create more competition but there are some people out there that believe it could cause less and so i think this is going to be hung up with regulators a little bit longer than we thought we've already sort of had some previews into that dave with the extensions and some of the timelines that have already been given um i know that was a safe answer and i will take credit for being safe this one's going to be a hard one to call but it certainly makes nvidia an amazing uh it gives amazing prospects to nvidia if they're able to get this deal done yeah i i agree with you i think it's 50 50. okay my i want to pose the question is intel too strategic to fail in march of this year we published this article where we posed that question uh you and i both know pat pretty well we talked about at the time the multi-front war intel is waging in a war with amd the arm ecosystem tsmc the design firms china and we looked at the company's moves which seemed to be right from a strategy standpoint the looking at the potential impact of the u.s government intel's partnership with ibm and what that might portend the us government has a huge incentive to make sure intel wins with onshore manufacturing and that looming threat from china but daniel is intel too strategic to fail and is pat gelsinger making the right moves well first of all i do believe at this current juncture where the semiconductor and supply chain shortage and crisis still looms that intel is too strategic to fail i also believe that intel's demise is somewhat overstated not to say intel doesn't have a slate of challenges that it's going to need to address long term just with the technology adoption curve that you showed being one of them dave but you have to remember the company still has nearly 90 of the server cpu market it still has a significant market share in client and pc it is seeing market share erosion but it's not happened nearly as fast as some people had suggested it would happen with right now with the demand in place and as high as it is intel is selling chips just about as quickly as it can make them and so we right now are sort of seeing the tam as a whole the demand as a whole continue to expand and so intel is fulfilling that need but where are they really too strategic to fail i mean we've seen in certain markets in certain uh process in um you know client for instance where amd has gained of course that's still x86 we've seen uh where the m1 was kind of initially thought to be potentially a pro product that would take some time it didn't take nearly as long for them to get that product in good shape um but the foundry and fab side is where i think intel really has a chance to flourish right now one it can play in the arm space it can build these facilities to be able to produce and help support the production of volumes of chips using arm designs so that actually gives intel and inroads two is it's the company that has made the most outspoken commitment to invest in the manufacturing needs of the united states both here in the united states and in other places across the world where we have friendly ally relationships and need more production capabilities if not in intel b and there is no other logical company that's us-based that's going to meet the regulator and policymakers requirements right now that is also raising their hand and saying we have the know-how we've been doing this we can do more of this and so i think pat is leaning into the right area and i think what will happen is very likely intel will support manufacturing of chips by companies like qualcomm companies like nvidia and if they're able to do that some of the market share losses that they're potentially facing with innovation challenges um and engineering challenges could be offset with growth in their fab and foundry businesses and i think i think pat identified it i think he's going to market with it and you know convincing the street that's going to be a whole nother thing that this is exciting um but i think as the street sees the opportunity here this is an area that intel can really lean into so i think i i think people generally would recognize at least the folks i talk to and it'll be interested in your thoughts who really know this business that intel you know had the best manufacturing process in in the world obviously that's coming to question but but but but for instance people say well intel's 10 nanometer you know is comparable to tsm seven nanometer and that's sort of overstated their their nanometer you know loss but but so so they they were able to point as they were able to sort of hide some of the issues maybe in design with great process and and i i believe that comes down to volume so the question i have then is and i think so i think patrick's pat is doing the right thing because he's going after volume and that's what foundry brings but can he get enough volume or does he need for inst for instance i mean one of the theories i've put out there is that apple could could save the day for intel if the if the us government gets apple in a headlock and says hey we'll back off on break up big tech but you got to give pat some of your foundry volume that puts him on a steeper learning curve do you do you worry sometimes though daniel that intel just even with like qualcomm and broadcom who by the way are competitors of theirs and don't necessarily love them but even even so if they could get that those wins that they still won't have the volume to compete on a cost basis or do you feel like even if they're numbered a number three even behind samsung it's good enough what are your thoughts on that well i don't believe a company like intel goes into a business full steam and they're not new to this business but the obvious volume and expansion that they're looking at with the intention of being number two or three these great companies and you know that's same thing i always say with google cloud google's not out to be the third cloud they're out to be one well that's intel will want to to be stronger if the us government and these investments that it's looking at making this 50 plus billion dollars is looking to pour into this particular space which i don't think is actually enough but if if the government makes these commitments and intel being likely one of the recipients of at least some of these dollars to help expedite this process move forward with building these facilities to make increased manufacturing very likely there's going to be some precedent of law a policy that is going to be put in place to make sure that a certain amount of the volume is done here stateside with companies this is a strategic imperative this is a government strategic imperative this is a putting the country at risk of losing its technology leadership if we cannot manufacture and control this process of innovation so i think intel is going to have that as a benefit that the government is going to most likely require some of this manufacturing to take place here um especially if this investment is made the last thing they're going to want to do is build a bunch of foundries and build a bunch of fabs and end up having them not at capacity especially when the world has seen how much of the manufacturing is now being done in taiwan so i think we're concluding and i i i correctly if i'm wrong but intel is too strategic to fail and and i i sometimes worry they can go bankrupt you know trying to compete with the likes of tsmc and that's why the the the public policy and the in the in the partnership with the u.s government and the eu is i think so important yeah i don't think bankruptcy is an immediate issue i think um but while i follow your train of thought dave i think what you're really looking at more is can the company grow and continue to get support where i worry about is shareholders getting exhausted with intel's the merry-go-round of not growing fast enough not gaining market share not being clearly identified as a leader in any particular process or technology and sort of just playing the role of the incumbent and they the company needs to whether it's in ai whether it's at the edge whether it's in the communications and service provider space intel is doing well you look at their quarterly numbers they're making money but if you had to say where are they leading right now what what which thing is intel really winning uh consistently at you know you look at like ai and ml and people will point to nvidia you look at you know innovation for um client you know and even amd has been super disruptive and difficult for intel uh of course you we've already talked about in like mobile um how impactful arm has been and arm is also playing a pretty big role in servers so like i said the market share and the technology leadership are a little out of skew right now and i think that's where pat's really working hard is identifying the opportunities for for intel to play market leader and technology leader again and for the market to clearly say yes um fab and foundry you know could this be an area where intel becomes the clear leader domestically and i think that the answer is definitely yes because none of the big chipmakers in the us are are doing fabrication you know they're they're all outsourcing it to overseas so if intel can really lead that here grow that large here then it takes some of the pressure off of the process and the innovation side and that's not to say that intel won't have to keep moving there but it does augment the revenue creates a new profit center and makes the company even more strategic here domestically yeah and global foundry tapped out of of sub 10 nanometer and that's why ibm's pseudonym hey wait a minute you had a commitment there the concern i have and this is where again your point is i think really important with the chip shortage you know to go from you know initial design to tape out took tesla and apple you know sub sub 24 months you know probably 18 months with intel we're on a three-year design to tape out cycle maybe even four years so they've got to compress that but that as you well know that's a really hard thing to do but the chip shortage is buying them time and i think that's a really important point that you brought out early in this segment so but the other big question daniel i want to test with you is well you mentioned this about seeing arm in the enterprise not a lot of people talk about that or have visibility on that but i think you're right on so will arm and nvidia be able to seriously penetrate the enterprise the server business in particular clearly jensen wants to be there now this data from etr lays out many of the enterprise players and we've superimposed the semiconductor giants in logos the data is an xy chart it shows net score that's etr's measure of spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal axis market share is not like idc market share its presence in the data set and as we reported before aws is leading the charge in enterprise architecture as daniel mentioned they're they're designing their own chips nitro and graviton microsoft is following suit as is google vmware has project monterey cisco is on the chart dell hp ibm with red hat are also shown and we've superimposed intel nvidia china and arm and now we can debate the position of the logos but we know that one intel has a dominant position in the data center it's got to protect that business it cannot lose ground as it has in pcs because the margin pressure it would face two we know aws with its annapurna acquisition is trying to control its own destiny three we know vmware has project monterey and is following aws's lead to support these new workloads beyond x86 general purpose they got partnerships with pansando and arm and others and four we know cisco they've got chip design chops as does hpe maybe to a lesser extent and of course we know ibm has excellent semiconductor design expertise especially when it comes to things like memory disaggregation as i said jensen's going hard after the data center you know him well daniel we know china wants to control its own destiny and then there's arm it dominates mobile as you pointed out in iot can it make a play for the data center daniel how do you see this picture and what are your thoughts on the future of enterprise in the context of semiconductor competition it's going to take some time i believe but some of the investments and products that have been brought to market and you mentioned that shorter tape out period that shorter period for innovation whether it's you know the graviton uh you know on aws or the aiml chips that uh with trainium and inferentia how quickly aws was able to you know develop build deploy to market an arm-based solution that is being well received and becoming an increasing component of the services and and uh products that are being offered from aws at this point it's still pretty small and i would i would suggest that nvidia and arm in the spirit of trying to get this deal done probably don't necess don't want the enterprise opportunity to be overly inflated as to how quickly the company's going to be able to play in that space because that would somewhat maybe slow or bring up some caution flags that of the regulators that are that are monitoring this at the same time you could argue that arm offering additional options in competition much like it's doing in client will offer new form factors new designs um new uh you know new skus the oems will be able to create more customized uh hardware offerings that might be able to be unique for certain enterprises industries can put more focus you know we're seeing the disaggregation with dpus and how that technology using arm with what aws is doing with nitro but what what these different companies are doing to use you know semiconductor technology to split out security networking and storage and so you start to see design innovation could become very interesting on the foundation of arm so in time i certainly see momentum right now the thing is is most companies in the enterprise are looking for something that's fairly well baked off the shelf that can meet their needs whether it's sap or whether it's you know running different custom applications that the business is built on top of commerce solutions and so intel meets most of those needs and so arm has made a lot of sense for instance with these cloud scale providers but not necessarily as much sense for enterprises especially those that don't want to necessarily look at refactoring all the workloads but as software becomes simpler as refactoring becomes easier to do between different uh different technologies and processes you start to say well arm could be compelling and you know because the the bottom line is we know this from mobile devices is most of us don't care what the processor is the average person the average data you know they look at many of these companies the same in enterprise it's always mattered um kind of like in the pc world it used to really matter that's where intel inside was born but as we continue to grow up and you see these different processes these different companies nvidia amd intel all seen as very worthy companies with very capable technologies in the data center if they can offer economics if they can offer performance if they can offer faster time to value people will look at them so i'd say in time dave the answer is arm will certainly become more and more competitive in the data center like it was able to do at the edge in immobile yeah one of the things that we've talked about is that you know the software-defined data center is awesome but it also created a lot of wasted overhead in terms of offloading storage and and networking security and that much of that is being done with general purpose x86 processors which are more expensive than than for instance using um if you look at what as you mentioned great summary of what aws is doing with graviton and trainium and other other tooling what ampere is doing um in in in oracle and you're seeing both of those companies for example particularly aws get isvs to write so they can run general purpose applications on um on arm-based processors as well it sets up well for ai inferencing at the edge which we know arms dominating the edge we see all these new types of workloads coming into the data center if you look at what companies like nebulon and pensando and and others are doing uh you're seeing a lot of their offloads are going to arm they're putting arm in even though they're still using x86 in a lot of cases but but but they're offloading to arm so it seems like they're coming into the back door i understand your point actually about they don't want to overplay their hand there especially during these negotiations but we think that that long term you know it bears watching but intel they have such a strong presence they got a super strong ecosystem and they really have great relationships with a lot of the the enterprise players and they have influence over them so they're going to use that the the the chip shortage benefits them the uh the relationship with the us government pat is spending a lot of time you know working that so it's really going to be interesting to see how this plays out daniel i want to give you the last word your final thoughts on what we talked about today and where you see this all headed i think the world benefits as a whole with more competition and more innovation pressure i like to see more players coming into the fray i think we've seen intel react over the last year under pat gelsinger's leadership we've seen the technology innovation the angstrom era the 20a we're starting to see what that roadmap is going to look like we've certainly seen how companies like nvidia can disrupt come into market and not just using hardware but using software to play a major role but as a whole as innovation continues to take form at scale we all benefit it means more intelligent software-defined vehicles it puts phones in our hands that are more powerful it gives power to you know cities governments and enterprises that can build applications and tools that give us social networks and give us data-driven experiences so i'm very bullish and optimistic on as a whole i said this before i say it again i believe semiconductors will eat the world and then you know you look at the we didn't even really talk about the companies um you know whether it's in ai uh like you know grok or grav core there are some very cool companies building things you've got qualcomm bought nuvia another company that could you know come out of the blue and offer us new innovations in mobile and personal computing i mean there's so many cool companies dave with the scale of data the uh the the growth and demand and desire for connectivity in the world um it's never been a more interesting time to be a fan of technology the only thing i will say as a whole as a society as i hope we can fix this problem because it does create risks the supply chain inflation the economics all that stuff ties together and a lot of people don't see that but if we can't get this manufacturing issue under control we didn't really talk about china dave and i'll just say taiwan and china are very physically close together and the way that china sees taiwan and the way we see taiwan is completely different we have very little control over what can happen we've all seen what's happened with hong kong so there's just so many as i said when i started this conversation we've got all these trains on the track they're all moving but they're not in parallel these tracks are all converging but the convergence isn't perpendicular so sometimes we don't see how all these things interrelate but as a whole it's a very exciting time love being in technology and uh love having the chance to come out here and talk with you i love the optimism and you're right uh that competition in china that's going to come from china as well xi has made it a part of his legacy i think to you know re-incorporate taiwan that's going to be interesting to see i mean taiwan ebbs and flows with regard to you know its leadership sometimes they're more pro i guess i should say less anti-china maybe that's the better way to say it uh and and and you know china's putting in big fab capacity for nand you know maybe maybe people look at that you know some of that is the low end of the market but you know clay christensen would say well to go take a look at the steel industry and see what happened there so so we didn't talk much about china and that was my oversight but but they're after self-sufficiency it's not like they haven't tried before kind of like intel has tried foundry before but i think they're really going for it this time but but now what are your do you believe that china will be able to get self-sufficiency let's say within the next 10 to 15 years with semiconductors yes i would never count china out of anything if they put their mind to it if it's something that they want to put absolute focus on i think um right now china vacillates between wanting to be a good player and a good steward to the world and wanting to completely run its own show the the politicization of what's going on over there we all saw what happened in the real estate market this past week we saw what happened with tech ed over the last few months we've seen what's happened with uh innovation and entrepreneurship it is not entirely clear if china wants to give the more capitalistic and innovation ecosystem a full try but it is certainly shown that it wants to be seen as a world leader over the last few decades it's accomplished that in almost any area that it wants to compete dave i would say if this is one of gigi ping's primary focuses wanting to do this it would be very irresponsible to rule it out as a possibility daniel i gotta tell you i i love collaborating with you um we met face to face just recently and i hope we could do this again i'd love to have you you back on on the program thanks so much for your your time and insights today thanks for having me dave so daniel's website futuram research that's three use in futurum uh check that out for termresearch.com uh the the this individual is really plugged in he's forward thinking and and a great resource at daniel newman uv is his twitter so go follow him for some great stuff and remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you do is search for breaking analysis podcast we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and by the way daniel thank you for contributing your your quotes to siliconangle the writers there love you uh you can always connect on twitter i'm at divalanto you can email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com appreciate the comments on linkedin and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time you

>>Welcome back to the cubes, continuous coverage of HP es latest Green Lake announcement firehose of innovation. We're seeing a >>cadence >>that HP is delivering in cloud services. Daniel Newman is here, he's the principal analyst at the tour, um, extraordinary research company. Daniel great to see you how you doing man. >>Dave Great to, great to be in person again six ft and safe. But it's good to be back. >>Yeah, it really is uh, been a blur. Right? So we're gonna talk about the pivot to cloud based services. We're seeing that everybody is sort of leaning in HP es all in. I want to talk about value and what this all means to investors. We talk about data, but let me start with the whole as a service move. As I said, everybody's doing it. You see it virtually every companies. Hp was certainly the first to say we're all in, It communicated very well to Wall Street. Everybody's in a debate. No, we were first. No, we were first, but you gotta evaluate based upon the actions that they're taking. How do you look at the trends in this space and how do you look at H. P. S performance? >>Yeah, I admired and Antonio's early pivot, you know, when he got on stage and he said, We're gonna move everything to as a service. I believe that was about two years ago now and the ambition was to have it by 2022. It immediately stood out to me because the momentum, the momentum was behind public cloud, you would have believed three years ago that every workload was going to be in the public cloud and unfortunately guys like us knew that wasn't true. But what we did know was the customers, the enterprise, we're all becoming very comfortable and preference was starting to be shown with that consumption of it meaning subscription based, moving from Capex to apex. That to me was a signal that the timing was right now. Once they got the timing right, it was really about how does this all happened right? It's not necessarily just, we're gonna flip a switch and we're going to start to offer everything as a subscription as a service. There's a lot of standing up those services, putting all that compute all that network, all that storage into a data center, making sure that you have a way to accurately price it and make it quickly consumable, which is something by the way I've admired over the past couple of years, watching the evolution of the software that HP has been rolling. Whether that's Green Lake Central as moral, is that, you know, whether that's kubernetes in the orchestration of hybrid cloud using containers or that's just the ability to spin up a single compute workload in a timely fashion. That's the attraction to public cloud. So, you know, take H P E and its strategy aside and what we have now is you have all of the traditional big iron I T O E M all moving in this direction concurrently. They all understand from both evaluation standpoint meeting Wall Street and also meeting the customer where they are, they have to step up. They had to, uh, whether that was what I was doing with apex Cisco with plus iBMS acquisition of red hat. All these companies were going from, you know, public to private, private to public and then of course you gotta go horizontal from edge to cloud as well. It's a lot to undertake Dave but it's an exciting time and knowing that hybrid is the answer the data is proving that it puts a lot of these companies in a good position to compete. >>Now you mentioned that is the customer preference for good reason. Right? That gives them more flexibility but there's also Wall Street's preference, right? You see that, you know, huge valuations companies like snowflake data, dog elastic. It's that annual recurring revenue that is appealing. They want that they want growth. We saw Q3 hp that did a beaten raise I think 1100 customers for green lake, they announced the orders were up well over 40%. I think revenue was up 30 30 plus percent. So those are the kind of metrics that Wall Street wants to see interestingly though Daniel of course the shift to an A. R. R. Model hurts the income statement but it makes it more predictable and that's what investors today want, what your thoughts. >>Absolutely. I had a chance to speak multiple times over the past few years with the leadership at HP. And it was the exact thing. David that I that I raised, I said you realize that it might be a sidestep or even a half a step backwards before you start to gain momentum. And the real problem with Wall Street is there's no patients. So you mentioned a couple of names like data dog and snowflake. These companies have exponential valuations to earnings because they don't earn anything yet. But most of the market is forward looking and the market tries to anticipate where growth is going to come and saAS companies tend to drive fast growth and fast multiples. This is also left for somewhat slow growth evaluation for companies like HP. Despite the fact that it's doing a lot of the right things you mentioned of course mid double digit growth in green lake, large customer growth numbers. You know, I believe you're serving a billion dollars in revenue or in subscription dollars. Um, fact check that on their >>way to a billion on their way to be honest. I think >>it's booked maybe over >>700 million in revenue that way. >>And so as all those, the confluence of all those events, the market has to be able to basically cherry pick though a part of the business. And I think that's been a little bit of a problem. Not just for HP, but just for all these companies that are, that are struggling with smaller multiples of their P. E ratios. This is true for Cisco? This is true for IBM this is true for for HP and I'll kind of close my thought here. But as the company continues to talk about green Lake and it continues to lean into this, this is the part that has to rise to the front front of the Wall Street investor of the business media to say that existing part of the business is stable, It's solid. They have great customers. However, concurrently the part of the business that is the future, the subscription part that attaches to the public cloud that is enabling companies to grow. That is where they're at. And that is why we see more value. There's a lot of value to unlock and it's because, you know, these small multiples and the business is heading in what I believe is the right >>direction. And HPV last quarter cited, they hit almost 35% gross margin, which is, which is a high mark, high water mark for them if you extract VM ware out of Dell there in the mid twenties. So these are two different businesses and I think that's a big reason why Dell's moving into the space. I almost think like the board conversation at HP was, hey, let's, let's not keep thinking about building boxes. Let's build services and let's add value to those services that are software based and then we can kind of control our own destiny as opposed to kind of intel getting all the margins and or M. D. Or whatever it is. So so that so how do you see as a service driving value for H. P. E. It's customers and ultimately what do they have to do to convince Wall street >>recurring revenue companies drive higher multiples? It's not even a debate and companies that have a large percentage of their business as recurring tend to drive much higher evaluation and tend to also be more beloved by shareholders. The performance of HP has been good, it's been solid, it's been in the right place especially given the circumstances of the pandemic and the impact of on prem it we all saw the explosion of SAS the explosion of cloud, you know, SAS and chips are hot, they're always hot. But everything that was sort of sandwiched in the middle became a little bit more murky throughout the pandemic times. And the ability for HP. And these companies that are in this space are operating to be able to bridge this gap. The companies have 25 or so percent of workload during the public cloud. That means the rest need services from companies like HP. So the tam is growing because the overall size of the workload, the volumes of data are all growing exponentially and that's an opportunity but the market wants to see fast growth. Dave I mean they're not going to accept the single digit overall growth if you want to get the kind of multiples of a, you know, even a Microsoft at a 40 or a sales force at 100. But HPV with its software is starting to play in those spaces where investors in the market maybe can start to recognize that it is undervalued. >>So we live in a data centric world, Antonio talks about this all the time and we're seeing HP makes some moves in terms of data data management, you see what they're doing with his moral and that's a big part of the software place. So to the extent that you can lean into that wave have a higher contribution from software, higher margin business obviously and a more predictable revenue stream. That seems to be the right direction in my view. Um it's gonna take some time to play out. They're not gonna overnight, you know, they don't have a green sheet of paper, they clean sheet of paper, they have a business that they have to manage and they have to service their customers. But to the extent that the majority of their business over time can become as a service, shouldn't that confer higher margins and and greater value to investors? Yeah, it's sticky >>for enterprise users when you move to that subscription model, it's not as easy as just lifting and shifting you build your entire business process around these investments in these technologies. Software. It's sticky, it's organizationally complex because where HP sits in the stack, where their analytic solutions and software help you more successfully deploy S. A. P type workloads. The entire company runs on that. So the involvement and the importance of the role that HP is playing is huge. The challenge for customers isn't as big customers get this, the enterprise users, the C I O. S. They get the importance Wall Street though it's a little harder for them sometimes to digest. Whereas they might be looking at something like a snowflake that you mentioned. That's fairly straightforward. Almost all of its revenue is pure subscription and it's looked at as 20 years in a perpetuity where people are still trying to wonder is HP gonna be sticky? Are these customers not only going to keep with HP but are they going to increase? Right. Is that net revenue expansion going to take place across the portfolio? And HP rolls out more services right. Started with storage and then it moves to compute and then it adds edge layer services. Are people going to buy the whole stack? Because that of course, also as we've seen with some of the bigger players can be an extremely attractive value proposition. >>Well, I also think as they move into cloud, HP has always been about optionality. So I feel as though with their day to play, for example, they can get deeper into data management but they can also partner with others, you're leaning into open source so that means you can expand your portfolio that's kind of what the cloud game is is you know, here's the cloud, we got all these different options, choose what you want, we'll manage it for you, charge you for that but we'll take away that headache. That's a good business, >>choose your own cloud adventure last week oracle reported. Um and I'm only pointing this out because you know, you look at the company and everybody was what's with their i as number? Why is it not big or smaller? Why don't we know right. But over the last couple of years we've realized that it's no longer little seeing big see little C which I would call infrastructure as a service no longer exists. Cloud is one big number. So H P E being in the cloud through its hybrid services, its software, its platform support is just as much about being in the cloud is a company that offers I. S. Or company that offers SAs however convincing the market that this is the case is the trick. We're starting to see companies because you you hear when IBM reports how their numbers are, you know, they're they're tying in all kinds of global business services and they're tying in you know, red hat numbers and they're telling in their public cloud numbers but what I'm saying is up to this point, a lot of these hybrid services are kind of not necessarily being bucket ID like this big sea of cloud but it really is the entire stack of of infrastructure platform software and then of course all those attached services for companies to deploy this that equal a cloud number. And so the subscription number grows. Green Lakes customer account grows. And I think convincing the street and everybody in between that this is a cloud number and not a on prem or a attached to the cloud number is going to really help boomer boom, the overall value that people see and what HP is doing. >>And I think not only H P E but I think others are I think finally they're starting to realize that wow, you know, we all know everything is not going to public cloud. We understand it's a hybrid world Public cloud spend a company's the hyper scale is collectively spent $100 billion dollars last year on Capex. That's like a gift to a company like HP that can connect the dots and create that abstraction layer that hides the underlying complexity. We'll take care of that for you will make everything cloud native. We can bring cloud native on prem and go out to the edge, which is like the Wild West that is a that's a trillion dollar opportunity that there's no limit to market potential for companies out there and HP specifically. >>Well the edges a massive opportunity and that's what I said, you know, a lot of us are and we do this ourselves as both analysts and sometimes media personalities is we like to debate how big the opportunity of cloud is. And of course there are some firms that try to market size this, but I actually think it's extraordinarily difficult to market sizes, especially because of the edge. You talk about data and analytics. I recently attended the a event. It's a car event in Munich and you just look at the amount of data that vehicles are going to be creating in the in the coming years. They're basically massive rolling data centers full of chips, compute networking storage. This is all going to take significant infrastructure investments at scale and it's creating this humongous opportunity at the edge and you look at five Gs impact and as we roll out five G it's scale. Every one of these things brings more data connects, more devices and all that intelligence needs infrastructure, It needs software, it needs services. So the overall tam Dave is going to continue to grow and I think if anything it tends to be underestimated because it's really hard to define just how big the data equation is actually going to be in the market. >>Digital changes the equation. It's not, it's no longer servers, storage, networking database, its cloud services that are enabling digital transformations. I'll give you one more >>thing that just crossed my mind. But I think is important is if you even look at the the S. G. And sustainability efforts that most companies are going to be taking the amount of investment in trying to capture, comprehend manage just the data and analytics to understand your footprint and understand how you are going to achieve carbon neutrality and how you're going to do this up and down. And I mean that's just one thing and of course that's a, I wouldn't call it table stakes at this point, the market expects every company to be making this kind of investment well, when you run a multi national global enterprise that has edge, that has data centers that has manufacturing facilities, there is just unbelievable requirements on technology. And again, we've got to connect that public cloud somehow. So we can't ignore the fact that those public cloud players are all addressing this, they're all bringing solutions out. But companies like HP, this is where their sweet spot is, and this is where I believe they're going to have to compete very aggressively and efficiently to show we are a great partner to the public cloud, but our legacy and our capabilities mean we understand this part of the business, we believe we're the right fit and trust me, the Azure and AWS are, they're not going to make this easy, they're going to be competitive but they're also going to going to be very cooperative >>well, and they're coming into the home court of the on prem vendors. So that's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out as an observer, as an analyst, what do you want to see from HP, Green Lake cloud services? What are the, what are the areas that you're gonna be watching that could serve as indicators of success and momentum? >>Well, we didn't even talk because we did talk about some of that, but we didn't even talk about aI and amount for instance, all this data itself has to be managed and processed. So the fact that you're getting to that data management at scale, the fact that you're building out orchestration for containers. Well this is because of that data delusion conundrum, whatever word we want to use for it. But the best companies in the world are going to find a way to extract more value from that data and that's going to be through the application of aI of ml of neural networks, deep learning and other important capabilities. Having a foot into that Dave is something I want to see HP and it already does, but I want to see the participation there. This is an area that I think public cloud is doing really well there. They really made big investments both with homegrown chips with partnering with the likes of videos and intel to, to offer a lot of enhancement acceleration, um Ml and AI services. I think this is gonna be an area that on prem and through hybrid offerings. We're gonna want to see the company compete. Uh and then of course, I think back to the one thing Dave, I'll just kind of wrap on this, is that that customer growth, I mean you talked about how to get evaluation, how to get the street up, people get excited about overall growth. They need to get that narrative carved out about green, like about the subscription growth, the service growth point next and all that stuff, but all that has to start to equate to overall growth. Um you know, I think it needs to be made at least single high digits, single overall percentage growth, especially because the whole portfolio supposed to be there. You know, companies get those big multiples are growing >>fast growth on, on that large of a base would get people's attention. You mentioned custom chips, H P >>E, you >>know, H P S H P S heritage and HP. They have chops in custom silicon. So be interesting to see if, if you know the future, you talk about ai inference at the edge, huge disruptive potential opportunities and I'm really curious as to see how that plays out because that is another trillion dollar market opportunity. Daniel, thanks so much for coming to the cubes. Great to have you looking forward to working with you in the future. >>Yeah, it's great to be here. And sorry, we didn't get to those chips earlier. We could have gone down a whole, another whole, another >>half hour. Great, great to talk to you. All right, thank you for watching everybody. This is the cubes, continuous coverage of HBs, Big Green Lake announcement. Keep it right there for more, great content. Mhm.

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante aws is pointing the way to a revolution in system architecture much in the same way that aws defined the cloud operating model last decade we believe it is once again leading in future systems design the secret sauce underpinning these innovations is specialized designs that break the stranglehold of inefficient and bloated centralized processing and allows aws to accommodate a diversity of workloads that span cloud data center as well as the near and far edge hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll dig into the moves that aws has been making which we believe define the future of computing we'll also project what this means for customers partners and aws many competitors now let's take a look at aws's architectural journey the is revolution it started by giving easy access as we all know to virtual machines that could be deployed and decommissioned on demand amazon at the time used a highly customized version of zen that allowed multiple vms to run on one physical machine the hypervisor functions were controlled by x86 now according to werner vogels as much as 30 of the processing was wasted meaning it was supporting hypervisor functions and managing other parts of the system including the storage and networking these overheads led to aws developing custom asics that help to accelerate workloads now in 2013 aws began shipping custom chips and partnered with amd to announce ec2 c3 instances but as the as the aws cloud started to scale they really weren't satisfied with the performance gains that they were getting and they were hitting architectural barriers that prompted aws to start a partnership with anaperta labs this was back in 2014 and they launched then ec2 c4 instances in 2015. the asic in c4 optimized offload functions for storage and networking but still relied on intel xeon as the control point aws aws shelled out a reported 350 million dollars to acquire annapurna in 2015 which is a meager sum to acquire the secret sauce of its future system design this acquisition led to a modern version of project nitro in 2017 nitro nitro offload cards were first introduced in 2013 at this time aws introduced c5 instances and replaced zen with kvm and more tightly coupled the hypervisor with the asic vogels shared last year that this milestone offloaded the remaining components including the control plane the rest of the i o and enabled nearly a hundred percent of the processing to support customer workloads it also enabled a bare metal version of the compute that spawned the partnership the famous partnership with vmware to launch vmware cloud on aws then in 2018 aws took the next step and introduced graviton its custom designed arm-based chip this broke the dependency on x86 and launched a new era of architecture which now supports a wide variety of configurations to support data intensive workloads now these moves preceded other aws innovations including new chips optimized for machine learning and training and inferencing and all kinds of ai the bottom line is aws has architected an approach that offloaded the work currently done by the central processing unit in most general purpose workloads like in the data center it has set the stage in our view for the future allowing shared memory memory disaggregation and independent resources that can be configured to support workloads from the cloud all the way to the edge and nitro is the key to this architecture and to summarize aws nitro think of it as a set of custom hardware and software that runs on an arm-based platform from annapurna aws has moved the hypervisor the network the storage virtualization to dedicated hardware that frees up the cpu to run more efficiently this in our opinion is where the entire industry is headed so let's take a look at that this chart pulls data from the etr data set and lays out key players competing for the future of cloud data center and the edge now we've superimposed nvidia up top and intel they don't show up directly in the etr survey but they clearly are platform players in the mix we covered nvidia extensively in previous breaking analysis and won't go too deep there today but the data shows net scores on the vertical axis that's a measure of spending velocity and then it shows market share in the horizontal axis which is a measure of pervasiveness within the etr data set we're not going to dwell on the relative positions here rather let's comment on the players and start with aws we've laid out aws how they got here and we believe they are setting the direction for the future of the industry and aws is really pushing migration to its arm-based platforms pat morehead at the 6-5 summit spoke to dave brown who heads ec2 at aws and he talked extensively about migrating from x86 to aws's arm-based graviton 2. and he announced a new developer challenge to accelerate that migration to arm instances graviton instances and the end game for customers is a 40 better price performance so a customer running 100 server instances can do the same work with 60 servers now there's some work involved but for the by the customers to actually get there but the payoff if they can get 40 improvement in price performance is quite large imagine this aws currently offers 400 different ec2 instances last year as we reported sorry last year as we reported earlier this year nearly 50 percent of the new ec2 instances so nearly 50 percent of the new ec2 instances shipped in 2020 were arm based and aws is working hard to accelerate this pace it's very clear now let's talk about intel i'll just say it intel is finally responding in earnest and basically it's taking a page out of arm's playbook we're going to dig into that a bit today in 2015 intel paid 16.7 billion dollars for altera a maker of fpgas now also at the 6.5 summit nevin shenoy of intel presented details of what intel is calling an ipu it's infrastructure processing unit this is a departure from intel norms where everything is controlled by a central processing unit ipu's are essentially smart knicks as our dpus so don't get caught up in all the acronym soup as we've reported it's all about offloading work and disaggregating memory and evolving socs system-on-chip and sops system on package but just let this sink in a bit a bit for a moment intel's moves this past week it seems to us anyway are designed to create a platform that is nitro like and the basis of that platform is a 16.7 billion dollar acquisition just compare that to aws's 350 million dollar tuck-in of annapurna that is incredible now chenoy said in his presentation rough quote we've already deployed ipu's using fpgas in a in very high volume at microsoft azure and we've recently announced partnerships with baidu jd cloud and vmware so let's look at vmware vmware is the other you know really big platform player in this race in 2020 vmware announced project monterrey you might recall that it's based on the aforementioned fpgas from intel so vmware is in the mix and it chose to work with intel most likely for a variety of reasons one of the obvious ones is all the software that's running on on on vmware it's been built for x86 and there's a huge install base there the other is pat was heading vmware at the time and and you know when project monterey was conceived so i'll let you connect the dots if you like regardless vmware has a nitro like offering in our view its optionality however is limited by intel but at least it's in the game and appears to be ahead of the competition in this space aws notwithstanding because aws is clearly in the lead now what about microsoft and google suffice it to say that we strongly believe that despite the comments that intel made about shipping fpgas and volume to microsoft that both microsoft and google as well as alibaba will follow aws's lead and develop an arm-based platform like nitro we think they have to in order to keep pace with aws now what about the rest of the data center pack well dell has vmware so despite the split we don't expect any real changes there dell is going to leverage whatever vmware does and do it better than anyone else cisco is interesting in that it just revamped its ucs but we don't see any evidence that it has a nitro like plans in its roadmap same with hpe now both of these companies have history and capabilities around silicon cisco designs its own chips today for carrier class use cases and and hpe as we've reported probably has some remnants of the machine hanging around but both companies are very likely in our view to follow vmware's lead and go with an intel based design what about ibm well we really don't know we think the best thing ibm could do would be to move the ibm cloud of course to an arm-based nitro-like platform we think even the mainframe should move to arm as well i mean it's just too expensive to build a specialized mainframe cpu these days now oracle they're interesting if we were running oracle we would build an arm-based nitro-like database cloud where oracle the database runs cheaper faster and consumes less energy than any other platform that would would dare to run oracle and we'd go one step further and we would optimize for competitive databases in the oracle cloud so we would make oci run the table on all databases and be essentially the database cloud but you know back to sort of fpgas we're not overly excited about about the market amd is acquiring xi links for 35 billion dollars so i guess that's something to get excited about i guess but at least amd is using its inflated stock price to do the deal but we honestly we think that the arm ecosystem will will obliterate the fpga market by making it simpler and faster to move to soc with far better performance flexibility integration and mobility so again we're not too sanguine about intel's acquisition of altera and the moves that amd is making in in the long term now let's take a deeper look at intel's vision of the data center of the future here's a chart that intel showed depicting its vision of the future of the data center what you see is the ipu's which are intelligent nixed and they're embedded in the four blocks shown and they're communicating across a fabric now you have general purpose compute in the upper left and machine intelligent on the bottom left machine intelligence apps and up in the top right you see storage services and then the bottom right variation of alternative processors and this is intel's view of how to share resources and go from a world where everything is controlled by a central processing unit to a more independent set of resources that can work in parallel now gelsinger has talked about all the cool tech that this will allow intel to incorporate including pci and gen 5 and cxl memory interfaces and or cxl memory which are interfaces that enable memory sharing and disaggregation and 5g and 6g connectivity and so forth so that's intel's view of the future of the data center let's look at arm's vision of the future and compare them now there are definite similarities as you can see especially on the right hand side of this chart you've got the blocks of different process processor types these of course are programmable and you notice the high bandwidth memory the hbm3 plus the ddrs on the two sides kind of bookending the blocks that's shared across the entire system and it's connected by pcie gen 5 cxl or ccix multi-die socket so you know you may be looking to say okay two sets of block diagrams big deal well while there are similarities around disaggregation and i guess implied shared memory in the intel diagram and of course the use of advanced standards there are also some notable differences in particular arm is really already at the soc level whereas intel is talking about fpgas neoverse arms architecture is shipping in test mode and we'll have end market product by year end 2022 intel is talking about maybe 2024 we think that's aspirational or 2025 at best arm's road map is much more clear now intel said it will release more details in october so we'll pay attention then maybe we'll recalibrate at that point but it's clear to us that arm is way further along now the other major difference is volume intel is coming at this from a high data center perspective and you know presumably plans to push down market or out to the edge arm is coming at this from the edge low cost low power superior price performance arm is winning at the edge and based on the data that we shared earlier from aws it's clearly gaining ground in the enterprise history strongly suggests that the volume approach will win not only at the low end but eventually at the high end so we want to wrap by looking at what this means for customers and the partner ecosystem the first point we'd like to make is follow the consumer apps this capability the capabilities that we see in consumer apps like image processing and natural language processing and facial recognition and voice translation these inference capabilities that are going on today in mobile will find their way into the enterprise ecosystem ninety percent of the cost associated with machine learning in the cloud is around inference in the future most ai in the enterprise and most certainly at the edge will be inference it's not today because it's too expensive this is why aws is building custom chips for inferencing to drive costs down so it can increase adoption now the second point is we think that customers should start experimenting and see what you can do with arm-based platforms moore's law is accelerating at least the outcome of moore's law the doubling of performance every of the 18 to 24 months it's it's actually much higher than that now when you add up all the different components in these alternative processors just take a look at apple's a5 a15 chip and arm is in the lead in terms of performance price performance cost and energy consumption by moving some workloads onto graviton for example you'll see what types of cost savings you can drive for which applications and possibly generate new applications that you can deliver to your business put a couple engineers in the task and see what they can do in two or three weeks you might be surprised or you might say hey it's too early for us but you'll find out and you may strike gold we would suggest that you talk to your hybrid cloud provider as well and find out if they have a nitro we shared that vmware they've got a clear path as does dell because they're you know vmware cousins what about your other strategic suppliers what's their roadmap what's the time frame to move from where they are today to something that resembles nitro do they even think about that how do they think about that do they think it's important to get there so if if so or if not how are they thinking about reducing your costs and supporting your new workloads at scale now for isvs these consumer capabilities that we discussed earlier all these mobile and and automated systems and cars and and things like that biometrics another example they're going to find their way into your software and your competitors are porting to arm they're embedding these consumer-like capabilities into their apps are you we would strongly recommend that you take a look at that talk to your cloud suppliers and see what they can do to help you innovate run faster and cut costs okay that's it for now thanks to my collaborator david floyer who's been on this topic since early last decade thanks to the community for your comments and insights and hey thanks to patrick morehead and daniel newman for some timely interviews from your event nice job fellas remember i published each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com these episodes are all available as podcasts just search for breaking analysis podcasts you can always connect with me on twitter at d vallante or email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com i appreciate the comments on linkedin and clubhouse so follow us if you see us in a room jump in and let's riff on these topics and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time