from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston connecting with thought leaders all around the world this is a cube conversation on June 23rd the Wall Street Journal reported that Dell is exploring strategic options for its approximately 81% share in VMware both Dell and VMware stocks popped on the news we believe that Dell is floating this trial balloon to really gauge investor customer and partner sentiment and perhaps send a signal to the short sellers that you know what Michael Dell has other arrows in his quiver to unlock in case you want to squeeze me I'm gonna squeeze you back who knows hello everyone and welcome to this week's wiki Bond cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis we'll unpack some of the complicated angles in the ongoing VMware saga and assess five scenarios that we think are possible as it pertains to this story as always we're going to bring in some ETR customer data to analyze what's happening with the spending picture let's take a look at what happened and just do a quick recap The Wall Street Journal story said that Dell was considering spinning off VMware or buying the remaining 19 percent of VMware stock that it doesn't own the Journal article cited unnamed sources and said that a spinoff would not likely happen until 7 September 2021 for tax reasons that would mark of course the 5 year anniversary of Dell acquiring EMC and would allow for a tax free transaction always a good thing what's going on here and what options does Dell really have what does it mean for Dell VMware customers and partners we're gonna try to answer those questions today so first of all why would Dell make such a move well I think there's tweet from your own name Marc he's a portfolio manager at one main capital it kind of sums it up he laid out this chart which shows Dells market cap prior to the stock pop you know it's closer to 38 billion today and the value of its VMware owner which is over 50 billion since the stock pop but let me cut to the chase investors value the core assets of Dell which accounts for around 80 billion dollars in revenue when you exclude vmware somewhere south of negative 10 billion dollars why it's because Dell is carrying more than 30 billion dollars of core debt when you exclude Dell Financial Services and it looks like a conglomerate owning the vast majority of VMware shares Michael Dell has something like a 97 percent voting control Cordell is a low margin low growth business and as some have complained that Michael uses VMware as his piggy bank and many investors just won't touch the stock so the stock generally Dell stock has underperformed I've often said even going back to the EMC days that owning the stock of VMware's owner is actually a cheap way to buy vmware but that's assuming that the value somehow gets unlocked at some point so Dell is perhaps signaling that it has some options and other levers to pull as I said you may be trying to give pause to the shorts now let's have a look at some of the ETR spending data and value and evaluate the respective positions of Dell and VMware in the market place this chart here uses the core ETR methodology that we like to talk about all the time for those not familiar we use the concept of net score net score is a simple metric it's like Net Promoter Score sort of the chart shows element the elements of Dells net score so each quarter ETR goes out and ask customers do you plan to adopt the vendor new that's the lime green at 4% spend more relative to last year more meaning more than 6% that's the forest green and you can see that's at 32% flat spend is the grey meaning plus or minus 5% and then decrease spending by 6 percent or greater that's the pink and that's just 11% for Dell or are you replacing the platform to see that that's the bright red there at 7% so net score is a measure of momentum and it's derived by adding the greens and subtracting the Reds and he can see Dell in the last ETR survey which was taken at the height of the pandemic has a net score of 18% now we we colored that soft red it's not terrible but it's not great either now of course this is across Dells entire portfolio and it excludes vmware so what about vmware so this next graphic that we're showing you it applies the exact same methodology to vmware and as you can see vmware has a much higher net score at 35% which of course shouldn't surprise anybody it's a higher growth company but 46% of vmware customers plan to spend more this year relative to last year and only 11% planned to spend less that's pretty strong now what if we combined dell and vmware and looked at them as a single entity hmm wouldn't that be interesting okay here you go so there were nine hundred and seventy five respondents in the last ETR survey when we matched the two companies together and you can see the combined net score is 27% with 42 percent of respondents planning to spend more this year than they did last year so you may be asking well is this any good how does this compare to dell and vmware competitors well I'm glad you asked so here we show that in this chart the net score comparisons so we take the combined dell and vmware at 27% Cisco as we often reported consistently shows pretty strong relative to the enterprise data center players and you can see HPE is a kind of a tepid 17 percent so it's got some work to do to live up to the promises of the HP HPE split we also we also show IBM red hat at 14% so there's some room for improvement there also and you can see IBM in the danger zone as we break that down and red hat much stronger but you know what it softened somewhat in the EGR survey since last year so we'd like to see better momentum from IBM and RedHat it's kind of unfortunate that kovat hit when it did his IBM was just kind of ramping up its RedHat go to market now just for comparison purposes for kicks we include Nutanix nifty annex is a much smaller company but it's one that's fairly mature and you can see at 52% its net scores much higher than the big whales now we've been reporting for months on high fliers like automation anywhere CrowdStrike octa rubric snowflake uipath these emerging companies have net scores you know north of 60% and even in the 70% range but of course they're growing from a much smaller base so you would expect that now let's put this into context with a two-dimensional view that we'd like to show now as you know in addition to net score that metric we like to use so-called market share market share is a measure of pervasiveness in the data set or essentially market share in the survey and it's a proxy for a real market share so what this chart here does it plots several companies with their net scores on the y-axis and market share on the x-axis and you can see that we combine Dell and VMware together and we plotted them in that red highlighted box just for comparison purposes so what does this tell you about the competitive landscape well first everyone would love to be AWS Microsoft - we didn't plot Microsoft because they're so bloody dominant they skew the chart somewhat but they would be way way out to the right on the x-axis because they have such a huge number of products and mentions in the data set so we left them out now you can see vmware and cisco are kind of right on top of each other which is sort of ironic as they're you know kind of increasingly overlapping with their offerings in the marketplace particularly nsx and you can see the other companies and for context we've added a few more competitors like theme and CommVault and you know they're in a pretty strong position as well as the combination of Dell and VMware so let's start there Steve Phil analyst Brad Reebok was quoted in the market watch publication is saying the following we have long believed Dell would ultimately buy in the approximately 19% our 12 and a half billion of VMware that it does not own in order to gain full control over VMware's substantial free cash flow which is about four billion dollars annually and we still expect this to be the ultimate outcome huh you know I don't know I'm not sure about this on the one hand you can see from the previous chart this would be a better outcome for Dell from a competitive standpoint what it did is it pulls Dell up and to the right yeah but perhaps not so much for VMware as it went down and to the left adèle would have to raise a bunch more cash to do this transaction and what take on even more debt you know maybe it could get Silverlake to finance the deal you know then essentially Dell would become the Oracle of infrastructure you know it certainly would make Dell even more strategic to CIOs would that be good for customers well on the one hand I guess it would bring better integration between Dell and VMware yeah but I wonder if that's the critical issue for customers yeah and nearly and I think it would stifle VMware's innovation engine and a little bit further and I wonder how Pat Yeltsin here would react I mean my guess is he would call it a day and what about Sanjay Putin who was the obvious next in line for the CEO job at VMware what he becomes the president of Dells software division and what about the rest of the team at VMware yes they're a Silicon Valley stalwart and that would slowly morph into austin-based Dell with the debt burden growing you know it's gonna mean more of VMware's cash would go to paying down the debt meaning less for R&D or even stock buybacks what you know I'm not a huge fan of and I'm not a huge fan of this scenario for sure the the technology park partner ecosystem would be ice cold on such a deal although you know you could argue there are already less than lukewarm but here I want to explore some other options so the next on the list is Dell could sell VMware to a private equity firm mmm or a strategic it could basically wipe out its debt and have some cash left over to sail into the sunset that would be a big pill for someone to swallow even though Michael Dell has 97 percent voting power I think there's fine print that says he has a responsibility to protect the interest of the minority shareholders so to get approval it would have to sell at a premium you know that could be as high as you know almost seventy billion dollars Microsoft has the cash but they don't need VMware and Amazon I guess could pull it off but that certainly is not likely even if Google who has the cash we're interested in buying VMware Google be the most likely candidate you know it would give Google Cloud instant access to the coveted enterprise but it's really hard to conceive I mean same for a PE company 65 to 70 billion you know they get their money out in 15 to 20 years so I I just I just don't see that as viable all right what's next how about this scenario of spinning off VMware that the Journal reported so in this transaction Dell shareholders would get a bunch of vmware stock now there may be some financial wizardry that tom sweet dell CFCF owned his band of financial geniuses could swing I can't even begin to speculate what that would be but but I've heard there's some magic that they could pull off to maybe pull some cash out of such a transaction and this would unlock the value of both Dell and VMware by removing the conglomerate and liquidity hangover for Dell and it were to definitely attract more sideline investors into VMware stock and Michael Dell would still own a boatload of VMware stock personally so there's an incentive there so this is interesting and certainly possible you know I think in a way it would be good for VMware customers VMware we get full autonomy and control over its destiny without Delvaux guarding its cash so it could freely innovate Dell would become probably less strategic for customers so I don't think that for Dell EMC buyers you know the technology ecosystem partners like HPE IBM Napa cetera would would would they would like it more but they were already kind of down the path of looking to optimize VMware alternatives so you know think about Cisco but you know I think for VMware customers okay I think for for daily MC customers not so much now what about the do-nothing scenario you know I think this is as possible as any outcome Dell keep chipping away at its debt using VMware as a strategic linchpin with customers sure they continue to pay the liquidity overhang tax and they'll frustrate some shareholders who we're going to remain on the sidelines but you know that's been the pattern anyway now what about delivering some of the VMware ownership so the more I think about it the more I like this scenario what if del sold 20% of its VMware stake and let's say raised ten twelve billion dollars in cash that it could use to really eat into its debt burden a move like this combined with its historical debt pay down could cut its death debt in half by say 2021 and get the company back to investment grade rating something that Tom sweet has aspired towards this one dropped hundreds of millions if not a billion dollars to the bottom line and it would allow Dell to continue to control VMware what I don't know I don't know if there are nuances to this scenario in other words does this dropping ownership from roughly eighty percent to about sixty percent trigger some loss of control or some reporting issue I'm sure it's buried somewhere in the public filings or acquisition Docs but this option to me makes some sense it doesn't really radically alter their relationships with customers or partners so it's kind of stable with VMware maintains its existing autonomy and even somewhat lessens Dale's perceived control over VMware in an attacks Dells debt burden yeah it's still a bit of a halfway house but I think it's a more attractive and as I said stable option in my view okay let's talk about what to look for next you know it looks like the stock market is coming to the reality that we are actually in a recession although it appears that Nasdaq is trying to ignore this or maybe the the markets a little bit off because they're afraid Joe Biden is gonna win the election he's not gonna be good for the for the economy we'll see we'll see what the economic shutdown means for tech companies in this earnings season etrs next survey is in the field and they're gonna have fresh data on the impact of kovat going into the dog days of summer here's what I think let me give you my preview and you'll see in a few weeks you know how accurate is I believe that tech spending is going to be soft broadly I think it's gonna especially be the case for legacy on-prem providers and expect their traditional businesses to to deteriorate somewhat I think there's gonna be bright spots in text protect for sure the ones we've reported on cloud yes absolutely automation you know I'm really looking closely at the battle between the two top our PA vendors automation anywhere in uipath I think there's a really interesting story brewing there and the names that we've been pounding like snowflake the security guys like CrowdStrike and octa and Z scalar I think they're gonna continue to do very well with this work from home pivot we also expect Microsoft to continue to show staying power but because of their size you know they're exposed to soft demand pockets but I think that continue to be very very strong and threatening to a lot of segments in the market now for Dell I think the data center businesses continue to be a tough one despite some of the new product cycles especially in storage but I think dal is gonna continue to benefit from the work from home pivot as I believe there's still some unmet demand and laptops we're gonna see that I believe show up in Dells income statement in the form of their their client revenue I'd love to know what you think you could tweet me at Devante or you can always email me at david dot Volante at Silicon angle com please comment on my LinkedIn post always appreciate I post weekly on silicon angle calm and on wiki bond calm so check out those properties and of course go to e TR dot plus for all the survey action as I say e TR is in the field with the current survey they got fresh Cova data so we're excited the report on that in the coming weeks remember these episodes are all available as podcast wherever you listen this is Dave Volante for the cube insights powered by ETR thanks for watching everyone we'll see you next time [Music]

from the cube studios in Palo Alto in Boston connecting with thought leaders all around the world this is a cube conversation CIOs and CISOs of industries that have been hard hit see significant near term and many permanent shifts to their IT and security strategies this was the consensus of four technology executives at leading companies that are feeling the brunt of the corona virus pandemic welcome to this week's cube insights powered by ETR my name is Dave Volante and in this breaking analysis we want to accomplish three things first we want to tap into a new piece of research from ETR it involves an intimate focus group like set up via an open discussion with leading technology executives we interviewed Eric Bradley the managing director of et ours then program and we'll bring him into this discussion the next thing we want to do is we want to drill in to the various sector commentaries from the four leaders third we're gonna comment an hour take try to add some color and then share with you some of the specific vendor commentary that was called out by the executives let's start by looking at what et our event is et our van is a roundtable discussion it applies a tried-and-true methodology similar to a focus group or in-depth interviews what we sometimes in the research business call ID is ETR invites execs in from its community to participate in a private but open conversation et our clients get to listen in the names of the execs and their companies are transparent but the cube is only allowed to refer to them generically as shown on this slide now we can validate these participants they are legit CIOs and CISOs some and very well-known firms now what I want to do is summarize the CIO and seaso sentiment from this then discussion the overall budget impact for these four organizations is very very severe essentially large project projects are being put on hold although digital transformation initiatives remain a priority there were really four significant areas of emphasis that were cited by these execs cloud-first on-prem is losing out to cloud SAS and of course remote access solutions in fact the best comment on the panel was as a service is saving our SAS traditional networking is shifting to SD win especially rigid MPLS networks securing endpoints and zero trust solutions are the winners and there are a number of vendors rising to the occasion that will talk about it let's see how Eric Bradley of ETR summarizes the venn to summarize what we're seeing here was the real winners and losers are clear not everyone was prepared to have it work from home strategy not everyone was prepared to send their workers out there VPN wasn't didn't have enough bandwidth so there was a real quick uptick in spending but longer-term we're starting to see that these changes will be become more permanent so the real winners and losers right now we're going to see on the losers side traditional networking the MPLS networking isn't a lot of trouble according to all the data and the commentary that we see it's expensive it's difficult to ramp up bandwidth as quickly as you need and it doesn't support remote ok what I want to do now is I want to take a look at some of the verbatim comments and I'll just I'll read them from this slide all spending is shut down 70% of big projects are cut all next-gen projects have been shelled the relationship with our SAS vendor has been a miracle we're accelerating from MPLS to sd when on top of secure gateway technologies these will win this was interesting our business continuity plans were way too DR focused essentially we weren't prepared now let's unpack the cloud first commentary and give you some additional color I feel like all we do around here sometimes is talk about the cloud but it's clear from the data in the ETR data set surveys and the venn that in other data from the cube that that the cloud is only going to be accelerated we said this in 2008 in the 2009 downturns have been good to cloud one of the execs literally said I would like to see my data centers completely deleted Wow let's listen to Erik Bradley's take on this comment I was also shocked about that comment that gentleman also stated that his executives outside of the eyeteeth area the CEO the CFO had never ever ever wanted to discuss cloud they did not want to discuss work from home they did not want to discuss remote access he said that conversation has changed immediately so we've been talking a lot about those aspects of people and process and technology that might be permanent post kovat and clearly you see c-level execs as having a bit of an awakening for things like cloud and work from home not that they didn't see them before but these things are gonna accelerate in our view I want to spend a minute talking about networks SAS and bring cloud again into the discussion I gotta say the panel members really trashed MPLS networks in a big way let me explain MPLS stands for multi-protocol label switching you find this type of infrastructure in big telecom networks and it's there to route traffic and pls is used to create dedicated and and essentially reliable connections it enables things like VPNs quality a service management traffic engineering or shaping but well MPLS is definitely cheaper than t1 it's more expensive than Ethernet now I came into prominence well before the cloud and these execs see it is as outdated and inflexible and this is where SD wind comes into play software-defined wide area networks they're gaining popularity especially with the Sassa fication of applications and of course the general trend toward cloud here's Eric Bradley again explaining what the panel members said from his perspectives winners there or in the SD web space it's gonna be impossible to ignore that going forward and some of our CIO and even CISO panelists said that change will be also we're seeing at the same time what they were calling a on on SAS and cloud now we know these trends obviously were already happening but there be they're being exacerbated they're happening even more quickly and more strong and I don't see that changing anytime soon that of course is at the expense of network sorry data centers whether it be your own or hosted which has huge ramifications on from on from Hardware even the firewall providers so and it really seems as if as networking refresh starts to come up and it's coming up with a lot of large in writes when your network refresh comes up people are going to do an RFP for SD web they are sick and tired of paying MPLS network vendors and they really want to look at something else that was even prior to this situation now what we're hearing is this is a permanent change I particularly had one person say I wanted to find this quote real quickly by then but basically they were basically saying that from a permanency perspective the freedom from MPLS will reduce our network spend by over half while more than doubling or tripling or bandwidth now the challenge of course is customers have multiple MPLS contracts with several different vendors and often they just rubber-stamp the renewal but what customers are gonna start doing is layering in SD win and letting those agreements expire ok I want to talk about secure endpoints in this notion of zero trust solutions as I've said in the cube many many times the idea of digging a moat around the castle doesn't protect your queen anymore because the Queen ie the data has left the castle so companies that can secure gateways and secure endpoints they are going to have more momentum during and post kovat now in the panel Z scalar came up a lot in this context as well as fortunate who as I've reported has done a good job in getting its cloud products to market and of course the et our data shows that fortunate and Z scalar both have strong net scores or spending momentum and fort net especially has really strong pervasiveness in the et our dataset as I've reported previously I've also analyzed that there's been evaluation divergence between Palo Alto Networks and fortunate and house II scalar as well is a disruptor in this space I want you to listen to what Eric Bradley said specifically about Z scalar in Palo Alto Networks roll the clip yes it is and I'm glad you brought up Z scalar to very recently by client request we did a very in-depth research on Z scale and versus Palo Alto charisma access and they were very interested this is before all this happened you know does Palo Alto have a chance of catching up taking share from Z scalar and I've had the pleasure myself personally hosting J the CEO of Z scalar at an event here at City and I have nothing but incredible respect for the company but what we found out through this research is Z scalar at the moment their technology is still ahead according to their and there is no doubt however there doesn't seem to be any real secret sauce that will stop palo alto from inching up so if I had to choose that in a year from now Palo Alto might have had a better chance so in this panel as you brought up Z scalar was mentioned numerous times as just the wave of the future along with Cosby brokers right whether you're talking about a net scope or a force point they're all those people that also play in The Cosby space to secure your access zero Trust is no longer a marketing hype term it is real and it is becoming more real by the week now I personally agree with Eric that palo alto is is definitely going to be in the mix customers that we've talked to they want to work with palo alto networks but there's a sea change going on and it's being driven by sass and cloud and now accelerating because a co vid of course that the trend of remote workers is we think here to stay now i want to end by talking about some specific vendor mentions in addition to the ones we've talked about already and this chart shows some of the vendors and their logos that were called out as either being really really helpful during the this pandemic or super important to the CIOs and CISOs these executives really stressed how thankful they are to these companies and that the fact that these companies have worked very closely with them they've been flexible on pricing and payments and they also specifically mentioned how off-put they were by you know this notion of ambulance-chasing for example trials that required them to make some kind of commitment or swipe a credit card they just don't have time for that right now and then of the patience for it now let me call out a few of the companies that were cited in a positive light look at microsoft is all for the ETR data set in so many sectors Microsoft teams security solutions cloud really came up a lot on on this ven IBM was mentioned as being a great partner as what's oracle many many times we talked about fortunate and Z scalar already Cisco was called out as a strategic vendor was very helpful both the networking and with Cisco teams for collaboration CrowdStrike came up a number of times from CISOs as did Trend Micro and carbon black got a mention that's the VMware acquisition insecurity of course MobileIron that makes sense as well because they're securing and managing remote worker devices now finally interesting Lee Salesforce was brought up many times as a critical vendor one exec said that before coronavirus multiple workers could share a Salesforce license by you know sharing passwords but with the spike and work from home they had to purchase more licenses now one last thing that I want to bring up is start ups I got this question the other day from a client who said how a start-ups fair you might think that in this climate especially among for hard-hit customers that there might be risk-averse as it pertains to using startups once cio however said the following paraphrasing you always hear about the guy that says we'll pick three companies in the upper right hand corner the Gartner Magic Quadrant will test them out and this C so said that one of the things that he's always done is picked two from the upper right and one from the lower left one of the emerging techs and he gives them a shot let's listen to how Eric Bradley describes this dynamic roll the clip it's a great comment and honestly if you're in charge of procurement you'd be stupid not to do that not only just to see what the technology is but now I can play you off the big guys because I have negotiating leverage and I could say oh well I could always just take their contract so it's silly not to do it from a business perspective so it's really interesting and somewhat non-intuitive these comments on startups which of course means despite all the consolidation and acquisitions that you see in the industry you know there's still gonna be a lot of fragmentations a fragmentation especially as I've said many many times in the security space people still want best to breed and innovation and if it can drive business value they're gonna they're gonna go for it ok so look I realize that these are narrow comments from for CIOs and CISOs but they give us some added texture and flavor and color to the core ETR data set and we're going to continue to report on these trends and share more details as they become available both from the ETR data set and from other vents and remember we're gonna be digging into the latest ETR survey over the over the coming weeks as ETR exits its self-imposed quiet period so you can always check out ETR dot plus I publish weekly on wiki bang calm and on Silicon angle calm and of course our YouTube library has all these videos that's youtube.com slash silicon angle by the way these segments are also available as podcasts you can DM me or tweet me at devil ante and please by all means comment on my LinkedIn posts or email me at David Galante at Silicon angle com always appreciate the feedback thanks for watching everybody this is breaking analysis brought to you by the cube powered by ETR this is Dave Volante and we'll see you next time thanks for watching [Music]