from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante semiconductors are the heart of technology innovation for decades technology improvements have marched the cadence of silicon advancements in performance cost power and packaging in the past 10 years the dynamics of the semiconductor industry have changed dramatically soaring factory costs device volume explosions fabulous chip companies greater programmability compressed time to tape out a lot more software content the looming presence of china these and other factors have changed the power structure of the semiconductor business chips today power every aspect of our lives and have led to a global semiconductor shortage that's been well covered but we've never seen anything like it before we believe silicon's success in the next 20 years will be determined by volume manufacturing capabilities design innovation public policy geopolitical dynamics visionary leadership and innovative business models that can survive the intense competition in one of the most challenging businesses in the world hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis it's our pleasure to welcome daniel newman in one of the leading analysts in the technology business and founder of futurum research daniel welcome to the program thanks so much dave great to see you thanks for having me big topic yeah i'll say i'm really looking forward to this and so here's some of the topics that we want to cover today if we have time changes in the semiconductor industry i've said they've been dramatic the shift to nofap companies we're going to talk about volume manufacturing those shifts that have occurred largely due to the arm model we want to cover intel and dig into that and what it has to do to to survive and thrive these changes and then we want to take a look at how alternative processors are impacting the world people talk about is moore's law dead is it alive and well daniel you have strong perspectives on all of this including nvidia love to get your thoughts on on that plus talk about the looming china threat as i mentioned in in the intro but daniel before we get into it do these topics they sound okay how do you see the state of the semiconductor industry today where have we come from where are we and where are we going at the macro level there are a lot of different narratives that are streaming alongside and they're not running in parallel so much as they're running and converging towards one another but it gradually different uh you know degrees so the last two years has welcomed a semiconductor conversation that we really hadn't had and that was supply chain driven the covid19 pandemic brought pretty much unprecedented desire demand thirst or products that are powered by semiconductors and it wasn't until we started running out of laptops of vehicles of servers that the whole world kind of put the semiconductor in focus again like it was just one of those things dave that we as a society it's sort of taken for granted like if you need a laptop you go buy a laptop if you needed a vehicle there'd always be one on the lot um but as we've seen kind of this exponentialism that's taken place throughout the pandemic what we ended up realizing is that semiconductors are eating the world and in fact the next industrial the entire industrial itself the complex is powered by semiconductor technology so everything we we do and we want to do right you went from a vehicle that might have had 50 or 100 worth of semiconductors on a few different parts to one that might have 700 800 different chips in it thousands of dollars worth of semi of semiconductors so you know across the board though yes you're dealing with the dynamics of the shortage you're dealing with the dynamics of innovation you're dealing with moore's law and sort of coming to the end which is leading to new process we're dealing with the foundry versus fab versus invention and product development uh situation so there's so many different concurrent semiconductor narratives that are going on dave and we can talk about any of them and all of them and i'm sure as we do we'll overlap all these different themes you know maybe you can solve this mystery for me there's this this this chip shortage and you can't invent vehicle inventory is so tight but yet when you listen to uh the the ads if the the auto manufacturers are pounding the advertising maybe they're afraid of tesla they don't want to lose their brand awareness but anyway so listen it's by the way a background i want to get a little bit academic here but but bear with me i want to introduce actually reintroduce the concept of wright's law to our audience we know we all know about moore's law but the earlier instantiation actually comes from theodore wright t.p wright he was this engineer in the airplane industry and the math is a little bit abstract to apply but roughly translated says as the cumulative number of units produced doubles your cost per unit declines by a fixed percentage now in airplanes that was around 15 percent in semiconductors we think that numbers more like 20 25 when you add the performance improvements you get from silicon advancements it translates into something like 33 percent cost cost declines when you can double your cumulative volume so that's very important because it confers strategic advantage to the company with the largest volume so it's a learning curve dynamic and it's like andy jassy says daniel there's no compression algorithm for experience and it definitely applies here so if you apply wright's law to what's happening in the industry today we think we can get a better understanding of for instance why tsmc is dominating and why intel is struggling any quick thoughts on that well you have to take every formula like that in any sort of standard mathematics and kind of throw it out the window when you're dealing with the economic situation we are right now i'm not i'm not actually throwing it out the window but what i'm saying is that when supply and demand get out of whack some of those laws become a little bit um more difficult to sustain over the long term what i will say about that is we have certainly seen this found um this fabulous model explode over the last few years you're seeing companies that can focus on software frameworks and innovation that aren't necessarily getting caught up in dealing with the large capital expenditures and overhead the ability to as you suggested in the topics here partner with a company like arm that's developing innovation and then and then um you know offering it uh to everybody right and for a licensee and then they can quickly build we're seeing what that's doing with companies like aws that are saying we're going to just build it alibaba we're just going to build it these aren't chip makers these aren't companies that were even considered chip makers they are now today competing as chip makers so there's a lot of different dynamics going back to your comment about wright's law like i said as we normalize and we figure out this situation on a global scale um i do believe that the who can manufacture the most will certainly continue to have significant competitive advantages yeah no so that's a really interesting point that you're bringing up because one of the things that it leads me to think is that the chip shortage could actually benefit intel i think will benefit intel so i want to introduce this some other data and then get your thoughts on this very simply the chart on the left shows pc shipments which peaked in in 2011 and then began at steady decline until covid and they've the pcs as we know have popped up in terms of volume in the past year and looks like they'll be up again this year the chart on the right is cumulative arm shipments and so as we've reported we think arm wafer volumes are 10x those of x86 volumes and and as such the arm ecosystem has far better cost structure than intel and that's why pat gelsinger was called in to sort of save the day so so daniel i just kind of again opened up this this can of worms but i think you're saying long term volume is going to be critical that's going to confer low cost advantages but in the in in the near to mid-term intel could actually benefit from uh from this chip shortage well intel is the opportunity to position itself as a leader in solving the repatriation crisis uh this will kind of carry over when we talk more about china and taiwan and that relationship and what's going on there we've really identified a massive gap in our uh in america supply chain in the global supply chain because we went from i don't have the stat off hand but i have a rough number dave and we can validate this later but i think it was in like the 30-ish high 30ish percentile of manufacturing of chips were done here in the united states around 1990 and now we're sub 10 as of 2020. so we we offshored almost all of our production and so when we hit this crisis and we needed more manufacturing volume we didn't have it ready part of the problem is you get people like elon musk that come out and make comments to the media like oh it'll be fixed later this year well you can't build a fab in a year you can't build a fab and start producing volume and the other problem is not all chips are the same so not every fab can produce every chip and when you do have fabs that are capable of producing multiple chips it costs millions of dollars to change the hardware and to actually change the process so it's not like oh we're going to build 28 today because that's what ford needs to get all those f-150s out of the lot and tomorrow we're going to pump out more sevens for you know a bunch of hp pcs it's a major overhaul every time you want to retool so there's a lot of complexity here but intel is the one domestic company us-based that has basically raised its hand and said we're going to put major dollars into this and by the way dave the arm chart you showed me could have a very big implication as to why intel wants to do that yeah so right because that's that's a big part of of foundry right is is get those volumes up so i want to hold that thought because i just want to introduce one more data point because one of the things we often talk about is the way in which alternative processors have exploded onto the scene and this chart here if you could bring that up patrick thank you shows the way in which i think you're pointing out intel is responding uh by leveraging alternative fat but once again you know kind of getting getting serious about manufacturing chips what the chart shows is the performance curve it's on a log scale for in the blue line is x86 and the orange line is apple's a series and we're using that as a proxy for sort of the curve that arm is on and it's in its performance over time culminating in the a15 and it measures trillions of operations per second so if you take the traditional x86 curve of doubling every 18 to 24 months that comes out roughly to about 40 percent improvement per year in performance and that's diminishing as we all know to around 30 percent a year because the moore's law is waning the orange line is powered by arm and it's growing at over a hundred percent really 110 per year when you do the math and that's when you combine the cpu the the the neural processing unit the the the xpu the dsps the accelerators et cetera so we're seeing apple use arm aws to you to your point is building chips on on graviton and and and tesla's using our list is long and this is one reason why so daniel this curve is it feels like it's the new performance curve in the industry yeah we are certainly in an era where companies are able to take control of the innovation curve using the development using the open ecosystem of arm having more direct control and price control and of course part of that massive arm number has to do with you know mobile devices and iot and devices that have huge scale but at the same time a lot of companies have made the decision either to move some portion of their product development on arm or to move entirely on arm part of why it was so attractive to nvidia part of the reason that it's under so much scrutiny that that deal um whether that deal will end up getting completed dave but we are seeing an era where we want we i said lust for power i talked about lust for semiconductors our lust for our technology to do more uh whether that's software-defined vehicles whether that's the smartphones we keep in our pocket or the desktop computer we use we want these machines to be as powerful and fast and responsive and scalable as possible if you can get 100 where you can get 30 improvement with each year and generation what is the consumer going to want so i think companies are as normal following the demand of consumers and what's available and at the same time there's some economic benefits they're they're able to realize as well i i don't want to i don't want to go too deep into nvidia arm but what do you handicap that that the chances that that acquisition actually happens oh boy um right now there's a lot of reasons it should happen but there are some reasons that it shouldn't i still kind of consider it a coin toss at this point because fundamentally speaking um you know it should create more competition but there are some people out there that believe it could cause less and so i think this is going to be hung up with regulators a little bit longer than we thought we've already sort of had some previews into that dave with the extensions and some of the timelines that have already been given um i know that was a safe answer and i will take credit for being safe this one's going to be a hard one to call but it certainly makes nvidia an amazing uh it gives amazing prospects to nvidia if they're able to get this deal done yeah i i agree with you i think it's 50 50. okay my i want to pose the question is intel too strategic to fail in march of this year we published this article where we posed that question uh you and i both know pat pretty well we talked about at the time the multi-front war intel is waging in a war with amd the arm ecosystem tsmc the design firms china and we looked at the company's moves which seemed to be right from a strategy standpoint the looking at the potential impact of the u.s government intel's partnership with ibm and what that might portend the us government has a huge incentive to make sure intel wins with onshore manufacturing and that looming threat from china but daniel is intel too strategic to fail and is pat gelsinger making the right moves well first of all i do believe at this current juncture where the semiconductor and supply chain shortage and crisis still looms that intel is too strategic to fail i also believe that intel's demise is somewhat overstated not to say intel doesn't have a slate of challenges that it's going to need to address long term just with the technology adoption curve that you showed being one of them dave but you have to remember the company still has nearly 90 of the server cpu market it still has a significant market share in client and pc it is seeing market share erosion but it's not happened nearly as fast as some people had suggested it would happen with right now with the demand in place and as high as it is intel is selling chips just about as quickly as it can make them and so we right now are sort of seeing the tam as a whole the demand as a whole continue to expand and so intel is fulfilling that need but where are they really too strategic to fail i mean we've seen in certain markets in certain uh process in um you know client for instance where amd has gained of course that's still x86 we've seen uh where the m1 was kind of initially thought to be potentially a pro product that would take some time it didn't take nearly as long for them to get that product in good shape um but the foundry and fab side is where i think intel really has a chance to flourish right now one it can play in the arm space it can build these facilities to be able to produce and help support the production of volumes of chips using arm designs so that actually gives intel and inroads two is it's the company that has made the most outspoken commitment to invest in the manufacturing needs of the united states both here in the united states and in other places across the world where we have friendly ally relationships and need more production capabilities if not in intel b and there is no other logical company that's us-based that's going to meet the regulator and policymakers requirements right now that is also raising their hand and saying we have the know-how we've been doing this we can do more of this and so i think pat is leaning into the right area and i think what will happen is very likely intel will support manufacturing of chips by companies like qualcomm companies like nvidia and if they're able to do that some of the market share losses that they're potentially facing with innovation challenges um and engineering challenges could be offset with growth in their fab and foundry businesses and i think i think pat identified it i think he's going to market with it and you know convincing the street that's going to be a whole nother thing that this is exciting um but i think as the street sees the opportunity here this is an area that intel can really lean into so i think i i think people generally would recognize at least the folks i talk to and it'll be interested in your thoughts who really know this business that intel you know had the best manufacturing process in in the world obviously that's coming to question but but but but for instance people say well intel's 10 nanometer you know is comparable to tsm seven nanometer and that's sort of overstated their their nanometer you know loss but but so so they they were able to point as they were able to sort of hide some of the issues maybe in design with great process and and i i believe that comes down to volume so the question i have then is and i think so i think patrick's pat is doing the right thing because he's going after volume and that's what foundry brings but can he get enough volume or does he need for inst for instance i mean one of the theories i've put out there is that apple could could save the day for intel if the if the us government gets apple in a headlock and says hey we'll back off on break up big tech but you got to give pat some of your foundry volume that puts him on a steeper learning curve do you do you worry sometimes though daniel that intel just even with like qualcomm and broadcom who by the way are competitors of theirs and don't necessarily love them but even even so if they could get that those wins that they still won't have the volume to compete on a cost basis or do you feel like even if they're numbered a number three even behind samsung it's good enough what are your thoughts on that well i don't believe a company like intel goes into a business full steam and they're not new to this business but the obvious volume and expansion that they're looking at with the intention of being number two or three these great companies and you know that's same thing i always say with google cloud google's not out to be the third cloud they're out to be one well that's intel will want to to be stronger if the us government and these investments that it's looking at making this 50 plus billion dollars is looking to pour into this particular space which i don't think is actually enough but if if the government makes these commitments and intel being likely one of the recipients of at least some of these dollars to help expedite this process move forward with building these facilities to make increased manufacturing very likely there's going to be some precedent of law a policy that is going to be put in place to make sure that a certain amount of the volume is done here stateside with companies this is a strategic imperative this is a government strategic imperative this is a putting the country at risk of losing its technology leadership if we cannot manufacture and control this process of innovation so i think intel is going to have that as a benefit that the government is going to most likely require some of this manufacturing to take place here um especially if this investment is made the last thing they're going to want to do is build a bunch of foundries and build a bunch of fabs and end up having them not at capacity especially when the world has seen how much of the manufacturing is now being done in taiwan so i think we're concluding and i i i correctly if i'm wrong but intel is too strategic to fail and and i i sometimes worry they can go bankrupt you know trying to compete with the likes of tsmc and that's why the the the public policy and the in the in the partnership with the u.s government and the eu is i think so important yeah i don't think bankruptcy is an immediate issue i think um but while i follow your train of thought dave i think what you're really looking at more is can the company grow and continue to get support where i worry about is shareholders getting exhausted with intel's the merry-go-round of not growing fast enough not gaining market share not being clearly identified as a leader in any particular process or technology and sort of just playing the role of the incumbent and they the company needs to whether it's in ai whether it's at the edge whether it's in the communications and service provider space intel is doing well you look at their quarterly numbers they're making money but if you had to say where are they leading right now what what which thing is intel really winning uh consistently at you know you look at like ai and ml and people will point to nvidia you look at you know innovation for um client you know and even amd has been super disruptive and difficult for intel uh of course you we've already talked about in like mobile um how impactful arm has been and arm is also playing a pretty big role in servers so like i said the market share and the technology leadership are a little out of skew right now and i think that's where pat's really working hard is identifying the opportunities for for intel to play market leader and technology leader again and for the market to clearly say yes um fab and foundry you know could this be an area where intel becomes the clear leader domestically and i think that the answer is definitely yes because none of the big chipmakers in the us are are doing fabrication you know they're they're all outsourcing it to overseas so if intel can really lead that here grow that large here then it takes some of the pressure off of the process and the innovation side and that's not to say that intel won't have to keep moving there but it does augment the revenue creates a new profit center and makes the company even more strategic here domestically yeah and global foundry tapped out of of sub 10 nanometer and that's why ibm's pseudonym hey wait a minute you had a commitment there the concern i have and this is where again your point is i think really important with the chip shortage you know to go from you know initial design to tape out took tesla and apple you know sub sub 24 months you know probably 18 months with intel we're on a three-year design to tape out cycle maybe even four years so they've got to compress that but that as you well know that's a really hard thing to do but the chip shortage is buying them time and i think that's a really important point that you brought out early in this segment so but the other big question daniel i want to test with you is well you mentioned this about seeing arm in the enterprise not a lot of people talk about that or have visibility on that but i think you're right on so will arm and nvidia be able to seriously penetrate the enterprise the server business in particular clearly jensen wants to be there now this data from etr lays out many of the enterprise players and we've superimposed the semiconductor giants in logos the data is an xy chart it shows net score that's etr's measure of spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal axis market share is not like idc market share its presence in the data set and as we reported before aws is leading the charge in enterprise architecture as daniel mentioned they're they're designing their own chips nitro and graviton microsoft is following suit as is google vmware has project monterey cisco is on the chart dell hp ibm with red hat are also shown and we've superimposed intel nvidia china and arm and now we can debate the position of the logos but we know that one intel has a dominant position in the data center it's got to protect that business it cannot lose ground as it has in pcs because the margin pressure it would face two we know aws with its annapurna acquisition is trying to control its own destiny three we know vmware has project monterey and is following aws's lead to support these new workloads beyond x86 general purpose they got partnerships with pansando and arm and others and four we know cisco they've got chip design chops as does hpe maybe to a lesser extent and of course we know ibm has excellent semiconductor design expertise especially when it comes to things like memory disaggregation as i said jensen's going hard after the data center you know him well daniel we know china wants to control its own destiny and then there's arm it dominates mobile as you pointed out in iot can it make a play for the data center daniel how do you see this picture and what are your thoughts on the future of enterprise in the context of semiconductor competition it's going to take some time i believe but some of the investments and products that have been brought to market and you mentioned that shorter tape out period that shorter period for innovation whether it's you know the graviton uh you know on aws or the aiml chips that uh with trainium and inferentia how quickly aws was able to you know develop build deploy to market an arm-based solution that is being well received and becoming an increasing component of the services and and uh products that are being offered from aws at this point it's still pretty small and i would i would suggest that nvidia and arm in the spirit of trying to get this deal done probably don't necess don't want the enterprise opportunity to be overly inflated as to how quickly the company's going to be able to play in that space because that would somewhat maybe slow or bring up some caution flags that of the regulators that are that are monitoring this at the same time you could argue that arm offering additional options in competition much like it's doing in client will offer new form factors new designs um new uh you know new skus the oems will be able to create more customized uh hardware offerings that might be able to be unique for certain enterprises industries can put more focus you know we're seeing the disaggregation with dpus and how that technology using arm with what aws is doing with nitro but what what these different companies are doing to use you know semiconductor technology to split out security networking and storage and so you start to see design innovation could become very interesting on the foundation of arm so in time i certainly see momentum right now the thing is is most companies in the enterprise are looking for something that's fairly well baked off the shelf that can meet their needs whether it's sap or whether it's you know running different custom applications that the business is built on top of commerce solutions and so intel meets most of those needs and so arm has made a lot of sense for instance with these cloud scale providers but not necessarily as much sense for enterprises especially those that don't want to necessarily look at refactoring all the workloads but as software becomes simpler as refactoring becomes easier to do between different uh different technologies and processes you start to say well arm could be compelling and you know because the the bottom line is we know this from mobile devices is most of us don't care what the processor is the average person the average data you know they look at many of these companies the same in enterprise it's always mattered um kind of like in the pc world it used to really matter that's where intel inside was born but as we continue to grow up and you see these different processes these different companies nvidia amd intel all seen as very worthy companies with very capable technologies in the data center if they can offer economics if they can offer performance if they can offer faster time to value people will look at them so i'd say in time dave the answer is arm will certainly become more and more competitive in the data center like it was able to do at the edge in immobile yeah one of the things that we've talked about is that you know the software-defined data center is awesome but it also created a lot of wasted overhead in terms of offloading storage and and networking security and that much of that is being done with general purpose x86 processors which are more expensive than than for instance using um if you look at what as you mentioned great summary of what aws is doing with graviton and trainium and other other tooling what ampere is doing um in in in oracle and you're seeing both of those companies for example particularly aws get isvs to write so they can run general purpose applications on um on arm-based processors as well it sets up well for ai inferencing at the edge which we know arms dominating the edge we see all these new types of workloads coming into the data center if you look at what companies like nebulon and pensando and and others are doing uh you're seeing a lot of their offloads are going to arm they're putting arm in even though they're still using x86 in a lot of cases but but but they're offloading to arm so it seems like they're coming into the back door i understand your point actually about they don't want to overplay their hand there especially during these negotiations but we think that that long term you know it bears watching but intel they have such a strong presence they got a super strong ecosystem and they really have great relationships with a lot of the the enterprise players and they have influence over them so they're going to use that the the the chip shortage benefits them the uh the relationship with the us government pat is spending a lot of time you know working that so it's really going to be interesting to see how this plays out daniel i want to give you the last word your final thoughts on what we talked about today and where you see this all headed i think the world benefits as a whole with more competition and more innovation pressure i like to see more players coming into the fray i think we've seen intel react over the last year under pat gelsinger's leadership we've seen the technology innovation the angstrom era the 20a we're starting to see what that roadmap is going to look like we've certainly seen how companies like nvidia can disrupt come into market and not just using hardware but using software to play a major role but as a whole as innovation continues to take form at scale we all benefit it means more intelligent software-defined vehicles it puts phones in our hands that are more powerful it gives power to you know cities governments and enterprises that can build applications and tools that give us social networks and give us data-driven experiences so i'm very bullish and optimistic on as a whole i said this before i say it again i believe semiconductors will eat the world and then you know you look at the we didn't even really talk about the companies um you know whether it's in ai uh like you know grok or grav core there are some very cool companies building things you've got qualcomm bought nuvia another company that could you know come out of the blue and offer us new innovations in mobile and personal computing i mean there's so many cool companies dave with the scale of data the uh the the growth and demand and desire for connectivity in the world um it's never been a more interesting time to be a fan of technology the only thing i will say as a whole as a society as i hope we can fix this problem because it does create risks the supply chain inflation the economics all that stuff ties together and a lot of people don't see that but if we can't get this manufacturing issue under control we didn't really talk about china dave and i'll just say taiwan and china are very physically close together and the way that china sees taiwan and the way we see taiwan is completely different we have very little control over what can happen we've all seen what's happened with hong kong so there's just so many as i said when i started this conversation we've got all these trains on the track they're all moving but they're not in parallel these tracks are all converging but the convergence isn't perpendicular so sometimes we don't see how all these things interrelate but as a whole it's a very exciting time love being in technology and uh love having the chance to come out here and talk with you i love the optimism and you're right uh that competition in china that's going to come from china as well xi has made it a part of his legacy i think to you know re-incorporate taiwan that's going to be interesting to see i mean taiwan ebbs and flows with regard to you know its leadership sometimes they're more pro i guess i should say less anti-china maybe that's the better way to say it uh and and and you know china's putting in big fab capacity for nand you know maybe maybe people look at that you know some of that is the low end of the market but you know clay christensen would say well to go take a look at the steel industry and see what happened there so so we didn't talk much about china and that was my oversight but but they're after self-sufficiency it's not like they haven't tried before kind of like intel has tried foundry before but i think they're really going for it this time but but now what are your do you believe that china will be able to get self-sufficiency let's say within the next 10 to 15 years with semiconductors yes i would never count china out of anything if they put their mind to it if it's something that they want to put absolute focus on i think um right now china vacillates between wanting to be a good player and a good steward to the world and wanting to completely run its own show the the politicization of what's going on over there we all saw what happened in the real estate market this past week we saw what happened with tech ed over the last few months we've seen what's happened with uh innovation and entrepreneurship it is not entirely clear if china wants to give the more capitalistic and innovation ecosystem a full try but it is certainly shown that it wants to be seen as a world leader over the last few decades it's accomplished that in almost any area that it wants to compete dave i would say if this is one of gigi ping's primary focuses wanting to do this it would be very irresponsible to rule it out as a possibility daniel i gotta tell you i i love collaborating with you um we met face to face just recently and i hope we could do this again i'd love to have you you back on on the program thanks so much for your your time and insights today thanks for having me dave so daniel's website futuram research that's three use in futurum uh check that out for termresearch.com uh the the this individual is really plugged in he's forward thinking and and a great resource at daniel newman uv is his twitter so go follow him for some great stuff and remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you do is search for breaking analysis podcast we publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and by the way daniel thank you for contributing your your quotes to siliconangle the writers there love you uh you can always connect on twitter i'm at divalanto you can email me at david.velante at siliconangle.com appreciate the comments on linkedin and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr be well and we'll see you next time you

from around the globe it's thecube with digital coverage of exascale day made possible by hewlett packard enterprise welcome everyone to the cube celebration of exascale day ben bennett is here he's an hpc strategist and evangelist at hewlett-packard enterprise ben welcome good to see you good to see you too son hey well let's evangelize exascale a little bit you know what's exciting you uh in regards to the coming of exoskilled computing um well there's a couple of things really uh for me historically i've worked in super computing for many years and i have seen the coming of several milestones from you know actually i'm old enough to remember gigaflops uh coming through and teraflops and petaflops exascale is has been harder than many of us anticipated many years ago the sheer amount of technology that has been required to deliver machines of this performance has been has been us utterly staggering but the exascale era brings with it real solutions it gives us opportunities to do things that we've not been able to do before if you look at some of the the most powerful computers around today they've they've really helped with um the pandemic kovid but we're still you know orders of magnitude away from being able to design drugs in situ test them in memory and release them to the public you know we still have lots and lots of lab work to do and exascale machines are going to help with that we are going to be able to to do more um which ultimately will will aid humanity and they used to be called the grand challenges and i still think of them as that i still think of these challenges for scientists that exascale class machines will be able to help but also i'm a realist is that in 10 20 30 years time you know i should be able to look back at this hopefully touch wood look back at it and look at much faster machines and say do you remember the days when we thought exascale was faster yeah well you mentioned the pandemic and you know the present united states was tweeting this morning that he was upset that you know the the fda in the u.s is not allowing the the vaccine to proceed as fast as you'd like it in fact it the fda is loosening some of its uh restrictions and i wonder if you know high performance computing in part is helping with the simulations and maybe predicting because a lot of this is about probabilities um and concerns is is is that work that is going on today or are you saying that that exascale actually you know would be what we need to accelerate that what's the role of hpc that you see today in regards to sort of solving for that vaccine and any other sort of pandemic related drugs so so first a disclaimer i am not a geneticist i am not a biochemist um my son is he tries to explain it to me and it tends to go in one ear and out the other um um i just merely build the machines he uses so we're sort of even on that front um if you read if you had read the press there was a lot of people offering up systems and computational resources for scientists a lot of the work that has been done understanding the mechanisms of covid19 um have been you know uncovered by the use of very very powerful computers would exascale have helped well clearly the faster the computers the more simulations we can do i think if you look back historically no vaccine has come to fruition as fast ever under modern rules okay admittedly the first vaccine was you know edward jenner sat quietly um you know smearing a few people and hoping it worked um i think we're slightly beyond that the fda has rules and regulations for a reason and we you don't have to go back far in our history to understand the nature of uh drugs that work for 99 of the population you know and i think exascale widely available exoscale and much faster computers are going to assist with that imagine having a genetic map of very large numbers of people on the earth and being able to test your drug against that breadth of person and you know that 99 of the time it works fine under fda rules you could never sell it you could never do that but if you're confident in your testing if you can demonstrate that you can keep the one percent away for whom that drug doesn't work bingo you now have a drug for the majority of the people and so many drugs that have so many benefits are not released and drugs are expensive because they fail at the last few moments you know the more testing you can do the more testing in memory the better it's going to be for everybody uh personally are we at a point where we still need human trials yes do we still need due diligence yes um we're not there yet exascale is you know it's coming it's not there yet yeah well to your point the faster the computer the more simulations and the higher the the chance that we're actually going to going to going to get it right and maybe compress that time to market but talk about some of the problems that you're working on uh and and the challenges for you know for example with the uk government and maybe maybe others that you can you can share with us help us understand kind of what you're hoping to accomplish so um within the united kingdom there was a report published um for the um for the uk research institute i think it's the uk research institute it might be epsrc however it's the body of people responsible for funding um science and there was a case a science case done for exascale i'm not a scientist um a lot of the work that was in this documentation said that a number of things that can be done today aren't good enough that we need to look further out we need to look at machines that will do much more there's been a program funded called asimov and this is a sort of a commercial problem that the uk government is working with rolls royce and they're trying to research how you build a full engine model and by full engine model i mean one that takes into account both the flow of gases through it and how those flow of gases and temperatures change the physical dynamics of the engine and of course as you change the physical dynamics of the engine you change the flow so you need a closely coupled model as air travel becomes more and more under the microscope we need to make sure that the air travel we do is as efficient as possible and currently there aren't supercomputers that have the performance one of the things i'm going to be doing as part of this sequence of conversations is i'm going to be having an in detailed uh sorry an in-depth but it will be very detailed an in-depth conversation with professor mark parsons from the edinburgh parallel computing center he's the director there and the dean of research at edinburgh university and i'm going to be talking to him about the azimoth program and and mark's experience as the person responsible for looking at exascale within the uk to try and determine what are the sort of science problems that we can solve as we move into the exoscale era and what that means for humanity what are the benefits for humans yeah and that's what i wanted to ask you about the the rolls-royce example that you gave it wasn't i if i understood it wasn't so much safety as it was you said efficiency and so that's that's what fuel consumption um it's it's partly fuel consumption it is of course safety there is a um there is a very specific test called an extreme event or the fan blade off what happens is they build an engine and they put it in a cowling and then they run the engine at full speed and then they literally explode uh they fire off a little explosive and they fire a fan belt uh a fan blade off to make sure that it doesn't go through the cowling and the reason they do that is there has been in the past uh a uh a failure of a fan blade and it came through the cowling and came into the aircraft depressurized the aircraft i think somebody was killed as a result of that and the aircraft went down i don't think it was a total loss one death being one too many but as a result you now have to build a jet engine instrument it balance the blades put an explosive in it and then blow the fan blade off now you only really want to do that once it's like car crash testing you want to build a model of the car you want to demonstrate with the dummy that it is safe you don't want to have to build lots of cars and keep going back to the drawing board so you do it in computers memory right we're okay with cars we have computational power to resolve to the level to determine whether or not the accident would hurt a human being still a long way to go to make them more efficient uh new materials how you can get away with lighter structures but we haven't got there with aircraft yet i mean we can build a simulation and we can do that and we can be pretty sure we're right um we still need to build an engine which costs in excess of 10 million dollars and blow the fan blade off it so okay so you're talking about some pretty complex simulations obviously what are some of the the barriers and and the breakthroughs that are kind of required you know to to do some of these things that you're talking about that exascale is going to enable i mean presumably there are obviously technical barriers but maybe you can shed some light on that well some of them are very prosaic so for example power exoscale machines consume a lot of power um so you have to be able to design systems that consume less power and that goes into making sure they're cooled efficiently if you use water can you reuse the water i mean the if you take a laptop and sit it on your lap and you type away for four hours you'll notice it gets quite warm um an exascale computer is going to generate a lot more heat several megawatts actually um and it sounds prosaic but it's actually very important to people you've got to make sure that the systems can be cooled and that we can power them yeah so there's that another issue is the software the software models how do you take a software model and distribute the data over many tens of thousands of nodes how do you do that efficiently if you look at you know gigaflop machines they had hundreds of nodes and each node had effectively a processor a core a thread of application we're looking at many many tens of thousands of nodes cores parallel threads running how do you make that efficient so is the software ready i think the majority of people will tell you that it's the software that's the problem not the hardware of course my friends in hardware would tell you ah software is easy it's the hardware that's the problem i think for the universities and the users the challenge is going to be the software i think um it's going to have to evolve you you're just you want to look at your machine and you just want to be able to dump work onto it easily we're not there yet not by a long stretch of the imagination yeah consequently you know we one of the things that we're doing is that we have a lot of centers of excellence is we will provide well i hate say the word provide we we sell super computers and once the machine has gone in we work very closely with the establishments create centers of excellence to get the best out of the machines to improve the software um and if a machine's expensive you want to get the most out of it that you can you don't just want to run a synthetic benchmark and say look i'm the fastest supercomputer on the planet you know your users who want access to it are the people that really decide how useful it is and the work they get out of it yeah the economics is definitely a factor in fact the fastest supercomputer in the planet but you can't if you can't afford to use it what good is it uh you mentioned power uh and then the flip side of that coin is of course cooling you can reduce the power consumption but but how challenging is it to cool these systems um it's an engineering problem yeah we we have you know uh data centers in iceland where it gets um you know it doesn't get too warm we have a big air cooled data center in in the united kingdom where it never gets above 30 degrees centigrade so if you put in water at 40 degrees centigrade and it comes out at 50 degrees centigrade you can cool it by just pumping it round the air you know just putting it outside the building because the building will you know never gets above 30 so it'll easily drop it back to 40 to enable you to put it back into the machine um right other ways to do it um you know is to take the heat and use it commercially there's a there's a lovely story of they take the hot water out of the supercomputer in the nordics um and then they pump it into a brewery to keep the mash tuns warm you know that's that's the sort of engineering i can get behind yeah indeed that's a great application talk a little bit more about your conversation with professor parsons maybe we could double click into that what are some of the things that you're going to you're going to probe there what are you hoping to learn so i think some of the things that that are going to be interesting to uncover is just the breadth of science that can be uh that could take advantage of exascale you know there are there are many things going on that uh that people hear about you know we people are interested in um you know the nobel prize they might have no idea what it means but the nobel prize for physics was awarded um to do with research into black holes you know fascinating and truly insightful physics um could it benefit from exascale i have no idea uh i i really don't um you know one of the most profound pieces of knowledge in in the last few hundred years has been the theory of relativity you know an austrian patent clerk wrote e equals m c squared on the back of an envelope and and voila i i don't believe any form of exascale computing would have helped him get there any faster right that's maybe flippant but i think the point is is that there are areas in terms of weather prediction climate prediction drug discovery um material knowledge engineering uh problems that are going to be unlocked with the use of exascale class systems we are going to be able to provide more tools more insight [Music] and that's the purpose of computing you know it's not that it's not the data that that comes out and it's the insight we get from it yeah i often say data is plentiful insights are not um ben you're a bit of an industry historian so i've got to ask you you mentioned you mentioned mentioned gigaflop gigaflops before which i think goes back to the early 1970s uh but the history actually the 80s is it the 80s okay well the history of computing goes back even before that you know yes i thought i thought seymour cray was you know kind of father of super computing but perhaps you have another point of view as to the origination of high performance computing [Music] oh yes this is um this is this is one for all my colleagues globally um you know arguably he says getting ready to be attacked from all sides arguably you know um computing uh the parallel work and the research done during the war by alan turing is the father of high performance computing i think one of the problems we have is that so much of that work was classified so much of that work was kept away from commercial people that commercial computing evolved without that knowledge i uh i have done in in in a previous life i have done some work for the british science museum and i have had the great pleasure in walking through the the british science museum archives um to look at how computing has evolved from things like the the pascaline from blaise pascal you know napier's bones the babbage's machines uh to to look all the way through the analog machines you know what conrad zeus was doing on a desktop um i think i think what's important is it doesn't matter where you are is that it is the problem that drives the technology and it's having the problems that requires the you know the human race to look at solutions and be these kicks started by you know the terrible problem that the us has with its nuclear stockpile stewardship now you've invented them how do you keep them safe originally done through the ascii program that's driven a lot of computational advances ultimately it's our quest for knowledge that drives these machines and i think as long as we are interested as long as we want to find things out there will always be advances in computing to meet that need yeah and you know it was a great conversation uh you're a brilliant guest i i love this this this talk and uh and of course as the saying goes success has many fathers so there's probably a few polish mathematicians that would stake a claim in the uh the original enigma project as well i think i think they drove the algorithm i think the problem is is that the work of tommy flowers is the person who took the algorithms and the work that um that was being done and actually had to build the poor machine he's the guy that actually had to sit there and go how do i turn this into a machine that does that and and so you know people always remember touring very few people remember tommy flowers who actually had to turn the great work um into a working machine yeah super computer team sport well ben it's great to have you on thanks so much for your perspectives best of luck with your conversation with professor parsons we'll be looking forward to that and uh and thanks so much for coming on thecube a complete pleasure thank you and thank you everybody for watching this is dave vellante we're celebrating exascale day you're watching the cube [Music]