>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> In our 2020 predictions post, we said that organizations would begin to operationalize their digital transformation experiments and POCs. We also said that based on spending data that cybersecurity companies like CrowdStrike and Okta were poised to rise above the rest in 2020, and we even said the S&P 500 would surpass 3,700 this year. Little did we know that we'd have a pandemic that would make these predictions a virtual lock, and, of course, COVID did blow us out of the water in some other areas, like our prediction that IT spending would increase plus 4% in 2020, when in reality, we have a dropping by 4%. We made a number of other calls that did pretty well, but I'll let you review last year's predictions at your leisure to see how we did. Hello, everyone. This is Dave Vellante and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. Erik Bradley of ETR is joining me again for this Breaking Analysis, and we're going to lay out our top picks for 2021. Erik, great to see you. Welcome back. Happy to have you on theCUBE, my friend. >> Always great to see you too, Dave. I'm excited about these picks this year. >> Well, let's get right into it. Let's bring up the first prediction here. Tech spending will rebound in 2021. We expect a 4% midpoint increase next year in spending. Erik, there are a number of factors that really support this prediction, which of course is based on ETR's most recent survey work, and we've listed a number of them here in this slide. I wonder if we can talk about that a little bit, the pace of the vaccine rollout. I've called this a forced march to COVID, but I can see people doubling down on things that are working. Productivity improvements are going to go back into the business. People are going to come back to the headquarters and that maybe is going to spur infrastructure on some pent-up demand, and work from home, we're going to talk about that. What are your thoughts on this prediction? >> Well, first of all, you weren't wrong last year. You were just, (laughs) you were just delayed. Just delayed a little bit, that's all. No, very much so. Early on, just three months ago, we were not seeing this optimism. The most recent survey, however, is capturing 4%. I truly believe that still might be a little bit mild. I think it can go even higher, and that's going to be driven by some of the things you've said about. This is a year where a lot of spending was paused on machine learning, on automation, on some of these projects that had to be stopped because of what we all went through. Right now, that is not a nice to have, it's a must have, and that spending is going quickly. There's a rapid pace on that spending, so I do think that's going to push it and, of course, security. We're going to get to this later on so I don't want to bury the lede, but with what's happening right now, every CISO I speak to is not panicked, but they are concerned and there will definitely be increased security spending that might push this 4% even higher. >> Yeah, and as we've reported as well, the survey data shows that there's less freezing of IT, there are fewer layoffs, there's more hiring, we're accelerating IT deployments, so that, I think, 34% last survey, 34% of organizations are accelerating IT deployments over the next three months, so that's great news. >> And also your point too about hiring. I was remiss in not bringing that up because we had layoffs and we had freezes on hiring. Both of that is stopping. As you know, as more head count comes in, whether that be from home or whether that be in your headquarters, both of those require support and require spending. >> All right, let's bring up the next prediction. Remote worker trends are going to become fossilized, settling in at an average of 34% by year-end 2021. Now, I love this chart, you guys. It's been amazingly consistent to me, Erik. We're showing data here from ETR's latest COVID survey. So it shows that prior to the pandemic, about 15 to 16% of employees on average worked remotely. That jumped to where we are today and well into the 70s, and we're going to stay close to that, according to the ETR data, in the first half of 2021, but by the end of the year, it's going to settle in at around 34%. Erik, that's double the pre-pandemic numbers and that's been consistent in your surveys over the past six month, and even within the sub-samples. >> Yeah, super surprised by the consistency, Dave. You're right about that. We were expecting the most recent data to kind of come down, right? We see the vaccines being rolled out. We kind of thought that that number would shift, but it hasn't, it has been dead consistent, and that's just from the data perspective. What we're hearing from the interviews and the feedback is that's not going to change, it really isn't, and there's a main reason for that. Productivity is up, and we'll talk about that in a second, but if you have productivity up and you have employees happy, they're not commuting, they're working more, they're working effectively, there is no reason to rush. And now imagine if you're a company that's trying to hire the best talent and attract the best talent but you're also the only company telling them where they have to live. I mean, good luck with that, right? So even if a few of them decide to make this permanent, that's something where you're going to really have to follow suit to attract talent. >> Yeah, so let's talk about that. Productivity leads us to our next prediction. We can bring that up. Number three is productivity increases are going to lead organizations to double down on the successes of 2020 and productivity apps are going to benefit. Now, of course, I'm always careful to cautious to interpret when you ask somebody by how much did productivity increase. It's a very hard thing to estimate depending on how you measure it. Is it revenue per employee? Is it profit? But nonetheless, the vast majority of people that we talk to are seeing productivity is going up. The productivity apps are really the winners here. Who do you see, Erik, as really benefiting from this trend? This year we saw Zoom, Teams, even Webex benefit, but how do you see this playing out in 2021? >> Well, first of all, the real beneficiaries are the companies themselves because they are getting more productivity, and our data is not only showing more productivity, but that's continuing to increase over time, so that's number one. But you're 100% right that the reason that's happening is because of the support of the applications and what would have been put in place. Now, what we do expect to see here, early on it was a rising tide lifted all boats, even Citrix got pulled up, but over time you realize Citrix is really just about legacy applications. Maybe that's not really the virtualization platform we need or maybe we just don't want to go that route at all. So the ones that we think are going to win longer term are part of this paradigm shift. The easiest one to put out as example is DocuSign. Nobody is going to travel and sit in an office to sign a paper ever again. It's not happening. I don't care if you go back to the office or you go back to headquarters. This is a paradigm shift that is not temporary. It is permanent. Another one that we're seeing is Smartsheet. Early on it started in. I was a little concerned about it 'cause it was a shadow IT type of a company where it was just spreading and spreading and spreading. It's turned out that this, the data on Smartsheet is continuing to be strong. It's an effective tool for project management when you're remotely working, so that's another one I don't see changing anytime. The other one I would call out would be Twilio. Slightly different, yes. It's more about the customer experience, but when you look at how many brick and mortar or how many in-person transactions have moved online and will stay there, companies like Twilio that support that customer experience, I'll throw out a Qualtrics out there as well, not a name we hear about a lot, but that customer experience software is a name that needs to be watched going forward. >> What do you think's going to happen to Zoom and Teams? Certainly Zoom just escalated this year, a huge ascendancy, and Teams I look at a little differently 'cause it's not just video conferencing, and both have done really, really well. How do you interpret the data that you're seeing there? >> There's no way around it, our data is decelerating quickly, really quickly. We were kind of bullish when Zoom first came out on the IPO prospects. It did very well. Obviously what happened in this remote shift turned them into an absolute overnight huge success. I don't see that continuing going forward, and there's a reason. What we're seeing and hearing from our feedback interviews is that now that people recognize this isn't temporary and they're not scrambling and they need to set up for permanency, they're going to consolidate their spend. They don't need to have Teams and Zoom. It's not necessary. They will consolidate where they can. There's always going to be the players that are going to choose Slack and Zoom 'cause they don't want to be on Microsoft architecture. That's fine, but you and I both know that the majority of large enterprises have Microsoft already. It's bundled in in pricing. I just don't see it happening. There's going to be M&A out there, which we can talk about again soon, so maybe Zoom, just like Slack, gets to a point where somebody thinks it's worthwhile, but there's a lot of other video conferencing out there. They're trying to push their telephony. They're trying to push their mobile solutions. There's a lot of companies out there doing it, so we'll see, but the current market cap does not seem to make sense in a permanent remote work situation. >> I think I'm inferring Teams is a little different because it's Microsoft. They've got this huge software estate they can leverage. They can bundle. Now, it's going to be interesting to see how and if Zoom can then expand its TAM, use its recent largesse to really enter potentially new markets. >> It will be, but listen, just the other day there was another headline that one of Zoom's executives out in China was actually blocking content as per directed by the Chinese government. Those are the kind of headlines that just really just get a little bit difficult when you're running a true enterprise size. Zoom is wonderful in the consumer space, but what I do is I research enterprise technology, and it's going to be really, really difficult to make inroads there with Microsoft. >> Yep. I agree. Okay, let's bring up number four, prediction number four. Permanent shifts in CISO strategies lead to measurable share shifts in network security. So the remote work sort of hyper-pivot, we'll call it, it's definitely exposed us. We've seen recent breaches that underscore the need for change. They've been well-publicized. We've talked a lot about identity access management, cloud security, endpoint security, and so as a result, we've seen the upstarts, and just a couple that we called, CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler has really benefited and we expect them to continue to show consistent growth, some well over 50% revenue growth. Erik, you really follow this space closely. You've been focused on microsegmentation and other, some of the big players. What are your thoughts here? >> Yeah, first of all, security, number one in spending overall when we started looking and asking people what their priority is going to be. That's not changing, and that was before the SolarWinds breach. I just had a great interview today with a CISO of a global hospitality enterprise to really talk about the implications of this. It is real. Him and his peers are not panicking but pretty close, is the way he put it, so there is spend happening. So first of all, to your point, continued on Okta, continued on identity access. See no reason why that changes. CrowdStrike, continue. What this is going to do is bring in some new areas, like we just mentioned, in network segmentation. Illumio is a pure play in that name that doesn't have a lot of citations, but I have watched over the last week their net spending score go from about 30 to 60%, so I am watching in real time, as this data comes in in the later part of our survey, that it's really happening Forescout is another one that's in there. We're seeing some of the zero trust names really picking up in the last week. Now, to talk about some of the more established names, yeah, Cisco plays in this space and we can talk about Cisco and what they're doing in security forever. They're really reinventing themselves and doing a great job. Palo Alto was in this space as well, but I do believe that network and microsegmentation is going to be something that's going to continue. The other one I'm going to throw out that I'm hearing a lot about lately is user behavior analytics. People need to be able to watch the trends, compare them to past trends, and catch something sooner. Varonis is a name in that space that we're seeing get a lot of adoptions right now. It's early trend, but based on our data, Varonis is a name to watch in that area as well. >> Yeah, and you mentioned Cisco transitioning, reinventing themselves toward a SaaS player. Their subscription, Cisco's security business is a real bright spot for them. Palo Alto, every time I sit in on a VENN, which is ETR's proprietary roundtable, the CISOs, they love Palo Alto. They want to work, many of them, anyway, want to work with Palo Alto. They see them as a thought leader. They seem to be getting their cloud act together. Fortinet has been doing a pretty good job there and especially for mid-market. So we're going to see this equilibrium, best of breed versus the big portfolio companies, and I think 2021 sets up as a really interesting battle for those guys with momentum and those guys with big portfolios. >> I completely agree and you nailed it again. Palo Alto has this perception that they're really thought leaders in the space and people want to work with them, but let's not rule Cisco out. They have a much, much bigger market cap. They are really good at acquisitions. In the past, they maybe didn't integrate them as well, but it seems like they're getting their act together on that. And they're pushing now what they call SecureX, which is sort of like their own full-on platform in the cloud, and they're starting to market that, I'm starting to hear more about it, and I do think Cisco is really changing people's perception of them. We shall see going forward because in the last year, you're 100% right, Palo Alto definitely got a little bit more of the sentiment, of positive sentiment. Now, let's also realize, and we'll talk about this again in a bit, there's a lot of players out there. There will probably be continued consolidation in the security space, that we'll see what happens, but it's an area where spending is increasing, there is a lot of vendors out there to play with, and I do believe we'll see consolidation in that space. >> Yes. No question. A highly fragmented business. A lack of skills is a real challenge. Automation is a big watch word and so I would expect, which brings us, Erik, to prediction number five. Can be hard to do prediction posts without talking about M&A. We see the trend toward increased tech spending driving more IPOs, SPACs and M&A. We've seen some pretty amazing liquidity events this year. Snowflake, obviously a big one. Airbnb, DoorDash, outside of our enterprise tech but still notable. Palantir, JFrog, number of others. UiPath just filed confidentially and their CEO said, "Over the next 12 to 18 months, I would think Automation Anywhere is going to follow suit at some point." Hashicorp was a company we called out in our 2020 predictions as one to watch along with Snowflake and some others, and, Erik, we've seen some real shifts in observability. The ELK Stack gaining prominence with Elastic, ChaosSearch just raised 40 million, and everybody's going after 5G. Lots of M&A opportunities. What are your thoughts? >> I think if we're going to make this a prediction show, I'm going to say that was a great year, but we're going to even have a better year next year. There is a lot of cash on the balance sheet. There are low interest rates. There is a lot of spending momentum in enterprise IT. The three of those set up for a perfect storm of more liquidity events, whether it be continued IPOs, whether it could be M&A, I do expect that to continue. You mentioned a lot of the names. I think you're 100% right. Another one I would throw out there in that observability space, is it's Grafana along with the ELK Stack is really making changes to some of the pure plays in that area. I've been pretty vocal about how I thought Splunk was having some problems. They've already made three acquisitions. They are trying really hard to get back up and keep that growth trajectory and be the great company they always have been, so I think the observability area is certainly one. We have a lot of names in that space that could be taken out. The other one that wasn't mentioned, however, that I'd like to mention is more in the CDN area. Akamai being the grandfather there, and we'll get into it a little bit too, but CloudFlare has a huge market cap, Fastly running a little bit behind that, and then there's Limelight, and there's a few startups in that space and the CDN is really changing. It's not about content delivery as much as it is about edge compute these days, and they would be a real easy takeout for one of these large market cap names that need to get into that spot. >> That's a great call. All right, let's bring up number six, and this is one that's near and dear to my heart. It's more of a longer-term prediction and that prediction is in the 2020s, 75% of large organizations are going to re-architect their big data platforms, and the premise here is we're seeing a rapid shift to cloud database and cross-cloud data sharing and automated governance. And the prediction is that because big data platforms are fundamentally flawed and are not going to be corrected by incremental improvements in data lakes and data warehouses and data hubs, we're going to see a shift toward a domain-centric ownership of the data pipeline where data teams are going to be organized around data product or data service builders and embedded into lines of business. And in this scenario, the technology details and complexity will become abstracted. You've got hyper-specialized data teams today. They serve multiple business owners. There's no domain context. Different data agendas. Those, we think, are going to be subsumed within the business lines, and in the future, the primary metric is going to shift from the cost and the quality of the big data platform outputs to the time it takes to go from idea to revenue generation, and this change is going to take four to five years to coalesce, but it's going to begin in earnest in 2021. Erik, anything you'd add to this? >> I'm going to let you kind of own that one 'cause I completely agree, and for all the listeners out there, that was Dave's original thought and I think it's fantastic and I want to get behind it. One of the things I will say to support that is big data analytics, which is what people are calling it because they got over the hype of machine learning, they're sick of vendors saying machine learning, and I'm hearing more and more people just talk about it as we need big data analytics, we need 'em at the edge, we need 'em faster, we need 'em in real time. That's happening, and what we're seeing more is this is happening with vendor-agnostic tools. This isn't just AWS-aligned. This isn't just GCP-aligned or Azure-aligned. The winners are the Snowflakes. The winners are the Databricks. The winners are the ones that are allowing this interoperability, the portability, which fully supports what you're saying. And then the only other comment I would make, which I really like about your prediction, is about the lines of business owning it 'cause I think this is even bigger. Right now, we track IT spending through the CIO, through the CTO, through IT in general. IT spending is actually becoming more diversified. IT spending is coming under the purview of marketing, it's coming under the purview of sales, so we're seeing more and more IT spending, but it's happening with the business user or the business lines and obviously data first, so I think you're 100% right. >> Yeah, and if you think about it, we've contextualized our operational systems, whether it's the CRM or the supply chain, the logistics, the business lines own their respective data. It's not true for the analytics systems, and we talked about Snowflake and Databricks. I actually see these two companies who were sort of birds of a feather in the early days together, applying Databricks machine learning on top of Snowflake, I actually see them going in diverging places. I see Databricks trying to improve on the data lake. I see Snowflake trying to reinvent the concept of data warehouse to this global mesh, and it's going to be really interesting to see how that shakes out. The data behind Snowflake, obviously very, very exciting. >> Yeah, it's just, real quickly to add on that if we have time, Dave. >> Yeah, sure. >> We all know the valuation of Snowflake, one of the most incredible IPOs I've seen in a long time. The data still supports it. It still supports that growth. Unfortunately for Databricks, their IPO has been a little bit more volatile. If you look at their stock chart every time they report, it's got a little bit of a roller coaster ride going on, and our most recent data for Databricks is actually decelerating, so again, I'm going to use the caveat that we only have about 950 survey responses in. We'll probably get that up to 1,300 or so, so it's not done yet, but right now we are putting Databricks into a category where we're seeing it decelerate a little bit, which is surprising for a company that's just right out of the gate. >> Well, it's interesting because I do see Databricks as more incremental on data lakes and I see Snowflake as more transformative, so at least from a vision standpoint, we'll see if they can execute on that. All right, number seven, let's bring up number seven. This is talking about the cloud, hybrid cloud, multi-cloud. The battle to define hybrid and multi-cloud is going to escalate in 2021. It's already started and it's going to create bifurcated CIO strategies. And, Erik, spending data clearly shows that cloud is continuing its steady margin share gains relative to on-prem, but the definitions of the cloud, they're shifting. Just a couple of years ago, AWS, they never talk about hybrid, just like they don't talk about multi-cloud today, yet AWS continues now to push into on-prem. They treat on-prem as just another node at the edge and they continue to win in the marketplace despite their slower growth rates. Still, they're so large now. 45 billion or so this year. The data is mixed. This ETR data shows that just under 50% of buyers are consolidating workloads, and then a similar, in the cloud workloads, and a similar percentage of customers are spreading evenly across clouds, so really interesting dynamic there. Erik, how do you see it shaking out? >> Yeah, the data is interesting here, and I would actually state that overall spend on the cloud is actually flat from last year, so we're not seeing a huge increase in spend, and coupled with that, we're seeing that the overall market share, which means the amount of responses within our survey, is increasing, certainly increasing. So cloud usage is increasing, but it's happening over an even spectrum. There's no clear winner of that market share increase. So they really, according to our data, the multi-cloud approach is happening and not one particular winner over another. That's just from the data perspective that various do point on AWS. Let's be honest, when they first started, they wanted all the data. They just want to take it from on-prem, put it in their data center. They wanted all of it. They never were interested in actually having interoperability. Then you look at an approach like Google. Google was always about the technology, but not necessarily about the enterprise customer. They come out with Anthos which is allowing you to have interoperability in more cloud. They're not nearly as big, but their growth rate is much higher. Law of numbers, of course. But it really is interesting to see how these cloud players are going to approach this because multi-cloud is happening whether they like it or not. >> Well, I'm glad you brought up multi-cloud in a context of what the data's showing 'cause I would agree we're, and particularly two areas that I would call out in ETR data, VMware Cloud on AWS as well as VM Cloud Foundation are showing real momentum and also OpenStack from Red Hat is showing real progress here and they're making moves. They're putting great solutions inside of AWS, doing some stuff on bare metal, and it's interesting to see. VMware, basically it's the VMware stack. They want to put that everywhere. Whereas Red Hat, similarly, but Red Hat has the developer angle. They're trying to infuse Red Hat in throughout everybody's stack, and so I think Red Hat is going to be really interesting to, especially to the extent that IBM keeps them, sort of lets them do their own thing and doesn't kind of pollute them. So, so far so good there. >> Yeah, I agree with that. I think you brought up the good point about it being developer-friendly. It's a real option as people start kicking a little bit more of new, different developer ways and containers are growing, growing more. They're not testing anymore, but they're real workloads. It is a stack that you could really use. Now, what I would say to caveat that though is I'm not seeing any net new business go to IBM Red Hat. If you were already aligned with that, then yes, you got to love these new tools they're giving you to play with, but I don't see anyone moving to them that wasn't already net new there and I would say the same thing with VMware. Listen, they have a great entrenched base. The longer they can kick that can down the road, that's fantastic, but I don't see net new customers coming onto VMware because of their alignment with AWS. >> Great, thank you for that. That's a good nuance. Number eight, cloud, containers, AI and ML and automation are going to lead 2021 spending velocity, so really is those are the kind of the big four, cloud, containers, AI, automation, And, Erik, this next one's a bit nuanced and it supports our first prediction of a rebound in tech spending next year. We're seeing cloud, containers, AI and automation, in the form of RPA especially, as the areas with the highest net scores or spending momentum, but we put an asterisk around the cloud because you can see in this inserted graphic, which again is preliminary 'cause the survey's still out in the field and it's just a little tidbit here, but cloud is not only above that 40% line of net score, but it has one of the higher sector market shares. Now, as you said, earlier you made a comment that you're not necessarily seeing the kind of growth that you saw before, but it's from a very, very large base. Virtually every sector in the ETR dataset with the exception of outsourcing and IT consulting is seeing meaningful upward spending momentum, and even those two, we're seeing some positive signs. So again, with what we talked about before, with the freezing of the IT projects starting to thaw, things are looking much, much better for 2021. >> I'd agree with that. I'm going to make two quick comments on that, one on the machine learning automation. Without a doubt, that's where we're seeing a lot of the increase right now, and I've had a multiple number of people reach out or in my interviews say to me, "This is very simple. These projects were slated to happen in 2020 and they got paused. It's as simple as that. The business needs to have more machine learning, big data analytics, and it needs to have more automation. This has just been paused and now it's coming back and it's coming back rapidly." Another comment, I'm actually going to post an article on LinkedIn as soon as we're done here. I did an interview with the lead technology director, automation director from Disney, and this guy obviously has a big budget and he was basically saying UiPath and Automation Anywhere dominate RPA, and that on top of it, the COVID crisis greatly accelerated automation, greatly accelerated it because it had to happen, we needed to find a way to get rid of these mundane tasks, we had to put them into real workloads. And another aspect you don't think about, a lot of times with automation, there's people, employees that really have friction. They don't want to adopt it. That went away. So COVID really pushed automation, so we're going to see that happening in machine learning and automation without a doubt. And now for a fun prediction real quick. You brought up the IT outsourcing and consulting. This might be a little bit more out there, the dark horse, but based on our data and what we're seeing and the COVID information about, you said about new projects being unwrapped, new hiring happening, we really do believe that this might be the bottom on IT outsourcing and consulting. >> Great, thank you for that, and then that brings us to number nine here. The automation mandate is accelerating and it will continue to accelerate in 2021. Now, you may say, "Okay, well, this is a lay-up," but not necessarily. UiPath and Automation Anywhere go public and Microsoft remains a threat. Look, UiPath, I've said UiPath and Automation Anywhere, if they were ready to go public, they probably would have already this year, so I think they're still trying to get their proverbial act together, so this is not necessarily a lay-up for them from an operational standpoint. They probably got some things to still clean up, but I think they're going to really try to go for it. If the markets stay positive and tech spending continues to go forward, I think we can see that. And I would say this, automation is going mainstream. The benefits of taking simple RPA tools to automate mundane tasks with software bots, it's both awakened organizations to the possibilities of automation, and combined with COVID, it's caused them to get serious about automation. And we think 2021, we're going to see organizations go beyond implementing point tools, they're going to use the pandemic to restructure their entire business. Erik, how do you see it, and what are the big players like Microsoft that have entered the market? What kind of impact do you see them having? >> Yeah, completely agree with you. This is a year where we go from small workloads into real deployment, and those two are the leader. In our data, UiPath by far the clear leader. We are seeing a lot of adoptions on Automation Anywhere, so they're getting some market sentiment. People are realizing, starting to actually adopt them. And by far, the number one is Microsoft Power Automate. Now, again, we have to be careful because we know Microsoft is entrenched everywhere. We know that they are good at bundling, so if I'm in charge of automation for my enterprise and I'm already a Microsoft customer, I'm going to use it. That doesn't mean it's the best tool to use for the right job. From what I've heard from people, each of these have a certain area where they are better. Some can get more in depth and do heavier lifting. Some are better at doing a lot of projects at once but not in depth, so we're going to see this play out. Right now, according to our data, UiPath is still number one, Automation Anywhere is number two, and Microsoft just by default of being entrenched in all of these enterprises has a lot of market share or mind share. >> And I also want to do a shout out to, or a call out, not really a shout out, but a call out to Pegasystems. We put them in the RPA category. They're covered in the ETR taxonomy. I don't consider them an RPA vendor. They're a business process vendor. They've been around for a long, long time. They've had a great year, done very, very well. The stock has done well. Their spending momentum, the early signs in the latest survey are just becoming, starting to moderate a little bit, but I like what they've done. They're not trying to take UiPath and Automation Anywhere head-on, and so I think there's some possibilities there. You've also got IBM who went to the market, SAP, Infor, and everybody's going to hop on the bandwagon here who's a software player. >> I completely agree, but I do think there's a very strong line in the sand between RPA and business process. I don't know if they're going to be able to make that transition. Now, business process also tends to be extremely costly. RPA came into this with trying to be, prove their ROI, trying to say, "Yeah, we're going to cost a little bit of money, but we're going to make it back." Business process has always been, at least the legacies, the ones you're mentioning, the Pega, the IBMs, really expensive. So again, I'm going to allude to that article I'm about to post. This particular person who's a lead tech automation for a very large company said, "Not only are UiPath and AA dominating RPA, but they're likely going to evolve to take over the business process space as well." So if they are proving what they can do, he's saying there's no real reason they can't turn around and take what Appian's doing, what IBM's doing and what Pega's doing. That's just one man's opinion. Our data is not actually tracking it in that space, so we can't back that, but I did think it was an interesting comment for and an interesting opportunity for UiPath and Automation Anywhere. >> Yeah, it's always great to hear directly from the mouths of the practitioners. All right, brings us to number 10 here. 5G rollouts are going to push new edge IoT workloads and necessitate new system architectures. AI and real-time inferencing, we think, require new thinking, particularly around processor and system design, and the focus is increasingly going to be on efficiency and at much, much lower costs versus what we've known for decades as general purpose workloads accommodating a lot of different use cases. You're seeing alternative processors like Nvidia, certainly the ARM acquisition. You've got companies hitting the market like Fungible with DPAs, and they're dominating these new workloads in the coming decade, we think, and they continue to demonstrate superior price performance metrics. And over the next five years they're going to find their way, we think, into mainstream enterprise workloads and put continued pressure on Intel general purpose microprocessors. Erik, look, we've seen cloud players. They're diversifying their processor suppliers. They're developing their own in-house silicon. This is a multi-year trend that's going to show meaningful progress next year, certainly if you measure it in terms of innovations, announcements and new use cases and funding and M&A activity. Your thoughts? >> Yeah, there's a lot there and I think you're right. It's a big trend that's going to have a wide implication, but right now, it's there's no doubt that the supply and demand is out of whack. You and I might be the only people around who still remember the great chip famine in 1999, but it seems to be happening again and some of that is due to just overwhelming demand, like you mentioned. Things like IoT. Things like 5G. Just the increased power of handheld devices. The remote from work home. All of this is creating a perfect storm, but it also has to do with some of the chip makers themselves kind of misfired, and you probably know the space better than me, so I'll leave you for that on that one. But I also want to talk a little bit, just another aspect of this 5G rollout, in my opinion, is we have to get closer to the edge, we have to get closer to the end consumer, and I do believe the CDN players have an area to play in this. And maybe we can leave that as there and we could do this some other time, but I do believe the CDN players are no longer about content delivery and they're really about edge compute. So as we see IoT and 5G roll out, it's going to have huge implications on the chip supply. No doubt. It's also could have really huge implications for the CDN network. >> All right, there you have it, folks. Erik, it's great working with you. It's been awesome this year. I hope we can do more in 2021. Really been a pleasure. >> Always. Have a great holiday, everybody. Stay safe. >> Yeah, you too. Okay, so look, that's our prediction for 2021 and the coming decade. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. You'll find it. We publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com, and you got to check out etr.plus. It's where all the survey action is. Definitely subscribe to their services if you haven't already. You can DM me @dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Bradley for theCUBE Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching, everyone. Be well and we'll see you next time. (relaxing music)

(lively classical music) >> Hello everyone, welcome to this special Cube conversation, we are here at the Power Panel Conversation. I'm John Furrier, in Palo Alto, California, theCUBE studies we have remote on the line here, talk about the cloud technology's impact on entrepreneurship and startups and overall ecosystem is Jim Long, who's the CEO of Didja, which is a startup around disrupting digital TV, also has been an investor and a serial entrepreneur, Sarbjeet Johal, who's the in-cloud influencer of strategy and investor out of Berkeley, California, The Batchery, and also Joseph Jacks, CUBE alumni, actually you guys are all CUBE alumni, so great to have you on. Joseph Jacks is the founder and general partner of OSS Capital, Open Source Software Capital, a new fund that's been raised specifically to commercialize and fund startups around open source software. Guys, we got a great panel here of experts, thanks for joining us, appreciate it. >> Go Bears! >> Nice to be here. >> So we have a distinguished panel, it's the Power Panel, we're on cloud technos, first I'd like to get you guys' reaction you know, you're to seeing a lot of negative news around what Facebook has become, essentially their own hyper-scale cloud with their application. They were called the digital, you know, renegades, or digital gangsters in the UK by the Parliament, which was built on open source software. Amazon's continuing to win, Azure's doing their thing, bundling Office 365, making it look like they've got more revenue with their catching up, Google, and then you got IBM and Oracle, and then you got an ecosystem that's impacted by this large scale, so I want to get your thoughts on first point here. Is there room for more clouds? There's a big buzzword around multiple clouds. Are we going to see specialty clouds? 'Causes Salesforce is a cloud, so is there room for more cloud? Jim, why don't you start? >> Well, I sure hope so. You know, the internet has unfortunately become sort of the internet of monopolies, and that doesn't do anyone any good. In fact, you bring up an interesting point, it'd be kind of interesting to see if Facebook created a social cloud for certain types of applications to use. I've no idea whether that makes any sense, but Amazon's clearly been the big gorilla now, and done an amazing job, we love using them, but we also love seeing, trying out different services that they have and then figuring out whether we want to develop them ourselves or use a specialty service, and I think that's going to be interesting, particularly in the AI area, stuff like that. So I sure hope more clouds are around for all of us to take advantage of. >> Joseph, I want you to weigh in here, 'cause you were close to the Kubernetes trend, in fact we were at a OpenStack event when you started Kismatic, which is the movement that became KubeCon Cloud Native, many many years ago, now you're investing in open source. The world's built on open source, there's got to be room for more clouds. Your thoughts on the opportunities? >> Yeah, thanks for having me on, John. I think we need a new kind of open collaborative cloud, and to date, we haven't really seen any of the existing major sort of large critical mass cloud providers participate in that type of model. Arguably, Google has probably participated and contributed the most in the open source ecosystem, contributing TensorFlow and Kubernetes and Go, lots of different open source projects, but they're ultimately focused on gravitating huge amounts of compute and storage cycles to their cloud platform. So I think one of the big missing links in the industry is, as we continue to see the rise of these large vertically integrated proprietary control planes for computing and storage and applications and services, I think as the open source community and the open source ecosystem continues to grow and explode, we'll need a third sort of provider, one that isn't based on monopoly or based on a traditional proprietary software business like Microsoft kind of transitioning their enterprise customers to services, sort of Amazon in the first camp vertically integrated many a buffet of all these different compute, storage, networking services, application, middleware. Microsoft focused on sort of building managed services of their software portfolio. I think we need a third model where we have sort of an open set of interfaces and an open standards based cloud provider that might be a pure software company, it might be a company that builds on the rails and the infrastructure that Amazon has laid down, spending tens of billions in cap ex, or it could be something based on a project like Kubernetes or built from the community ecosystem. So I think we need something like that just to sort of provide, speed the innovation, and disaggregate the services away from a monolithic kind of closed vendor like Amazon or Azure. >> I want to come back to that whole startup opportunity, but I want to get Sarbjeet in here, because we've been in the B2B area with just last week at IBM Think 2019. Obviously they're trying to get back into the cloud game, but this digital transformation that has been the cliche for almost a couple of years now, if not five or plus. Business has got to move to the cloud, so there's a whole new ball game of complete cultural shift. They need stability. So I want to talk more about this open cloud, which I love that conversation, but give me the blocking and tackling capabilities first, 'cause I got to get out of that old cap ex model, move to an operating model, transform my business, whether it's multi clouds. So Sarbjeet, what's your take on the cloud market for say, the enterprise? >> Yeah, I think for the enterprise... you're just sitting in that data center and moving those to cloud, it's a cumbersome task. For that to work, they actually don't need all the bells and whistles which Amazon has in the periphery, if you will. They need just core things like compute, network, and storage, and some other sort of services, maybe database, maybe data share and stuff like that, but they just want to move those applications as is to start with, with some replatforming and with some changes. Like, they won't make changes to first when they start moving those applications, but our minds are polluted by this thinking. When we see a Facebook being formed by a couple of people, or a company of six people sold for a billion dollars, it just messes up with our mind on the enterprise side, hey we can do that too, we can move that fast and so forth, but it's sort of tragic that we think that way. Well, having said that, and I think we have talked about this in the past. If you are doing anything in the way of systems innovation, if your building those at, even at the enterprise, I think cloud is the way to go. To your original question, if there's room for newer cloud players, I think there is, provided that we can detach the platforms from the environments they are sitting on. So the proprietariness has to kinda, it has to be lowered, the degree of proprietariness has to be lower. It can be through open source I think mainly, it can be from open technologies, they don't have to be open source, but portable. >> JJ was mentioning that, I think that's a big point. Jim Long, you're an entrepreneur, you've been a VC, you know all the VCs, been around for a while, you're also, you're an entrepreneur, you're a serial entrepreneur, starting out at Cal Berkeley back in the day. You know, small ideas can move fast, and you're building on Amazon, and you've got a media kind of thing going on, there's a cloud opportunity for you, 'cause you are cloud native, 'cause you're built in the cloud. How do you see it playing out? 'Cause you're scaling with Amazon. >> Well, so we obviously, as a new startup, don't have the issues the enterprise folks have, and I could really see the enterprise customers, what we used to call the Fortune 500, for example, getting together and insisting on at least a base set of APIs that Amazon and Microsoft et cetera adopt, and for a startup, it's really about moving fast with your own solution that solves a problem. So you don't necessarily care too much that you're tied into Amazon completely because you know that if you need to, you can make a change some day. But they do such a good job for us, and their costs, while they can certainly be lower, and we certainly would like more volume discounts, they're pretty darn amazing across the network, across the internet, we do try to price out other folks just for the heck of it, been doing that recently with CDNs, for example. But for us, we're actually creating a hybrid cloud, if you will, a purpose-built cloud to support local television stations, and we do think that's going to be, along with using Amazon, a unique cloud with our own APIs that we will hopefully have lots of different TV apps use our hybrid cloud for part of their application to service local TV. So it's kind of a interesting play for us, the B2B part of it, we're hoping to be pretty successful as well, and we hope to maybe have multiple cloud vendors in our mix, you know. Not that our users will know who's behind us, maybe Amazon, for something, Limelight for another, or whatever, for example. >> Well you got to be concerned about lock-in as you become in the cloud, that's something that everybody's worried about. JJ, I want to get back to you on the investment thesis, because you have a cutting edge business model around investing in open source software, and there's two schools of thought in the open source community, you know, free contribution's great, and let tha.t be organic, and then there's now commercialization. There's real value being created in open source. You had put together a chart with your team about the billions of dollars in exits from open source companies. So what are you investing in, what do you see as opportunities for entrepreneurs like Jim and others that are out there looking at scaling their business? How do you look at success, what's your advice, what do you see as leading indicators? >> I think I'll broadly answer your question with a model that we've been thinking a lot about. We're going to start writing publicly about it and probably eventually maybe publish a book or two on it, and it's around the sort of fundamental perspective of creating value and capturing value. So if you model a famous investor and entrepreneur in Silicon Valley who has commonly modeled these things using two different letter variables, X and Y, but I'll give you the sort of perspective of modeling value creation and value capture around open source, as compared to closed source or proprietary software. So if you look at value creation modeled as X, and value capture modeled as Y, where X and Y are two independent variables with a fully proprietary software company based approach, whether you're building a cloud service or a proprietary software product or whatever, just a software company, your value creation exponent is typically bounded by two things. Capital and fundraising into the entity creating the software, and the centralization of research and development, meaning engineering output for producing the software. And so those two things are tightly coupled to and bounded to the company. With commercial open source software, the exact opposite is true. So value creation is decoupled and independent from funding, and value creation is also decentralized in terms of the research and development aspect. So you have a sort of decentralized, community-based, crowd-sourced, or sort of internet, global phenomena of contributing to a code base that isn't necessarily owned or fully controlled by a single entity, and those two properties are sort of decoupled from funding and decentralized R and D, are fundamentally changing the value creation kind of exponent. Now let's look at the value capture variable. With proprietary software company, or proprietary technology company, you're primarily looking at two constituents capturing value, people who pay for accessing the service or the software, and people who create the software. And so those two constituents capture all the value, they capture, you know, the vendor selling the software captures maybe 10 or 20% of the value, and the rest of the value, I would would express it say as the customer is capturing the rest of the value. Most economists don't express value capture as capturable by an end user or a customer. I think that's a mistake. >> Jim, you're-- >> So now... >> Okay, Jim, your reaction to that, because there's an article went around this weekend from Motherboard. "The internet was built on free labor "of open source developers. "Is that sustainable?" So Jim, what's your reaction to JJ's comments about the interactions and the dynamic between value creation, value capture, free versus sustainable funding? >> Well if you can sort of mix both together, that's what I would like, I haven't really ever figured out how to make open source work in our business model, but I haven't really tried that hard. It's an intriguing concept for sure, particularly if we come up with APIs that are specific to say, local television or something like that, and maybe some special processes that do things that are of interest to the wider community. So it's something I do plan to look at because I do agree that if you, I mean we use open source, we use this thing called FFmpeg, and several other things, and we're really happy that there's people out there adding value to them, et cetera, and we have our own versions, et cetera, so we'd like to contribute to the community if we could figure out how. >> Sarbjeet, your reactions to JJ's thesis there? >> I think two things. I will comment on two different aspects. One is the lack of standards, and then open source becoming the standard, right. I think open source kind of projects take birth and life in its own, because we have lack of standard, 'cause these different vendors can't agree on standards. So remember we used to have service-oriented architecture, we have Microsoft pushing some standards from one side and IBM pushing from other, SOAP versus xCBL and XML, different sort of paradigms, right, but then REST API became the de facto standard, right, it just took over, I think what REST has done for software in last about 10 years or so, nothing has done that for us. >> well Kubernetes is right now looking pretty good. So if you look at JJ, Kubernetes, the movement you were really were pioneering on, it's having similar dynamic, I mean Kubernetes is becoming a forcing function for solidarity in the community of cloud native, as well as an actual interoperable orchestration layer for multiple clouds and other services. So JJ, your thoughts on how open source continues as some of these new technologies, like Kubernetes, continue to hit the scene. Is there any trajectory change in open source that you see, that you could share, I'd love to get your insights on what's next behind, you know, the rise of Kubernetes is happening, what's next? >> I think more abstractly from Kubernetes, we believe that if you just look at the rate of innovation as a primary factor for progress and forward change in the world, open source software has the highest rate of innovation of any technology creation phenomena, and as a consequence, we're seeing more standards emerge from the open source ecosystem, we're seeing more disruption happen from the open source ecosystem, we're seeing more new technology companies and new paradigms and shifts happen from the open source ecosystem, and kind of all progress across the largest, most difficult sort of compound, sensitive problems, influenced and kind of sourced from the open source ecosystem and the open source world overall. Whether it's chip design, machine learning or computing innovations or new types of architectures, or new types of developer paradigms, you know, biological breakthroughs, there's kind of things up and down the technology spectrum that have a lot to sort of thank open source for. We think that the future of technology and the future of software is really that open source is at the core, as opposed to the periphery or the edges, and so today, every software technology company, and cloud providers included, have closed proprietary cores, meaning that where the core is, the data path, the runtime, the core business logic of the company, today that core is proprietary software or closed source software, and yet what is also true, is at the edges, the wrappers, the sort of crust, the periphery of every technology company, we have lots of open source, we have client libraries and bindings and languages and integrations, configuration, UIs and so on, but the cores are proprietary. We think the following will happen over the next few decades. We think the future will gradually shift from closed proprietary cores to open cores, where instead of a proprietary core, an open core is where you have core open source software project, as the fundamental building block for the company. So for example, Hadoop caused the creation of MapR and Cloudera and Hortonworks, Spark caused the creation of Databricks, Kafka caused the creation of Confluent, Git caused the creation of GitHub and GitLab, and this type of commercial open source software model, where there's a core open source project as the kernel building block for the company, and then an extension of intellectual property or wrappers around that open source project, where you can derive value capture and charge for licensed product with the company, and impress customer, we think that model is where the future is headed, and this includes cloud providers, basically selling proprietary services that could be based on a mixture of open source projects, but perhaps not fundamentally on a core open source project. Now we think generally, like abstractly, with maybe somewhat of a reductionist explanation there, but that open core future is very likely, fundamentally because of the rate of innovation being the highest with the open source model in general. >> All right, that's great stuff. Jim, you're a historian of tech, you've lived it. Your thoughts on some of the emerging trends around cloud, because you're disrupting linear TV with Didja, in a new way using cloud technology. How do you see cloud evolving? >> Well, I think the long lines we discussed, certainly I think that's a really interesting model, and having the open source be the center of the universe, then figure out how to have maybe some proprietary stuff, if I can use that word, around it, that other people can take advantage of, but maybe you get the value capture and build a business on that, that makes a lot of sense, and could certainly fit in the TV industry if you will from where I sit... Bring services to businesses and consumers, so it's not like there's some reason it wouldn't work, you know, it's bound to, it's bound to figure out a way, and if you can get a whole mass of people around the world working on the core technology and if it is sort of unique to what mission of, or at least the marketplace you're going after, that could be pretty interesting, and that would be great to see a lot of different new mini-clouds, if you will, develop around that stuff would be pretty cool. >> Sarbjeet, I want you to talk about scale, because you also have experience working with Rackspace. Rackspace was early on, they were trying to build the cloud, and OpenStack came out of that, and guess what, the world was moving so fast, Amazon was a bullet train just flying down the tracks, and it just felt like Rackspace and their cloud, you know OpenStack, just couldn't keep up. So is scale an issue, and how do people compete against scale in your mind? >> I think scale is an issue, and software chops is an issue, so there's some patterns, right? So one pattern is that we tend to see that open source is now not very good at the application side. You will hardly see any applications being built as open source. And also on the extreme side, open source is pretty sort of lame if you will, at very core of the things, like OpenStack failed for that reason, right? But it's pretty good in the middle as Joseph said, right? So building pipes, building some platforms based on open source, so the hooks, integration, is pretty good there, actually. I think that pattern will continue. Hopefully it will go deeper into the core, which we want to see. The other pattern is I think the software chops, like one vendor has to lead the project for certain amount of time. If that project goes into sort of open, like anybody can grab it, lot of people contribute and sort of jump in very quickly, it tends to fail. That's what happened to, I think, OpenStack, and there were many other reasons behind that, but I think that was the main reason, and because we were smaller, and we didn't have that much software chops, I hate to say that, but then IBM could control like hundred parties a week, at the project >> They did, and look where they are. >> And so does HP, right? >> And look where they are. All right, so I'd love to have a Power Panel on open source, certainly JJ's been in the thick of it as well as other folks in the community. I want to just kind of end on lightweight question for you guys. What have you guys learned? Go down the line, start with Jim, Sarbjeet, and then JJ we'll finish with you. Share something that you've learned over the past three months that moved you or that people should know about in tech or cloud trends that's notable. What's something new that you've learned? >> In my case, it was really just spending some time in the last few months getting to know our end users a little bit better, consumers, and some of the impact that having free internet television has on their lives, and that's really motivating... (distorted speech) Something as simple as you might take for granted, but lower income people don't necessarily have a TV that works or a hotel room that has a TV that works, or heaven forbid they're homeless and all that, so it's really gratifying to me to see people sort of tuning back into their local media through television, just by offering it on their phone and laptops. >> And what are you going to do as a result of that? Take a different action, what's the next step for you, what's the action item? >> Well we're hoping, once our product gets filled out with the major networks, et cetera, that we actually provide a community attachment to it, so that we have over-the-air television channels is the main part of the app, and then a side part of the app could be any IP stream, from city council meetings to high schools, to colleges, to local community groups, local, even religious situations or festivals or whatever, and really try to tie that in. We'd really like to use local television as a way to strengthening all local media and local communities, that's the vision at least. >> It's a great mission you guys have at Didja, thanks for sharing that. Sarbjeet, what have learned over the past quarter, three months that was notable for you and the impact and something that changed you a little bit? >> What actually I have gravitated towards in last three to six months is the blockchain, actually. I was light on that, like what it can do for us, and is there really a thing behind it, and can we leverage it. I've seen more and more actually usage of that, and sort of full SCM, supply chain management and healthcare and some other sort of use cases if you will. I'm intrigued by it, and there's a lot of activity there. I think there's some legs behind it, so I'm excited about that. >> And are doing a blockchain project as a result, or are you still tire-kicking? >> No actually, I will play with it, I'm a practitioner, I play with it, I write code and play with it and see (Jim laughs) what does that level of effort it takes to do that, and as you know, I wrote the Alexa scale couple of weeks back, and play with AI and stuff like that. So I try to do that myself before I-- >> We're hoping blockchain helps even out the TV ad economy and gets rid of middle men and makes more trusting transactions between local businesses and stuff. At least I say that, I don't really know what I'm talking about. >> It sounds good though. You get yourself a new round of funding on that sound byte alone. JJ, what have you learned in the past couple months that's new to you and changed you or made you do something different? >> I've learned over the last few months, OSS Capital is a few months and change old, and so just kind of getting started on that, and it's really, I think potentially more than one decade, probably multi-decade kind of mostly consensus building effort. There's such a huge lack of consensus and agreement in the industry. It's a fascinatingly polarizing area, the sort of general topic of open source technology, economics, value creation, value capture. So my learnings over the past few months have just intensified in terms of the lack of consensus I've seen in the industry. So I'm trying to write a little bit more about observations there and sort of put thoughts out, and that's kind of been the biggest takeaway over the last few months for me. >> I'm sure you learned about all the lawyer conversations, setting up a fund, learnings there probably too right, (Jim laughs) I mean all the detail. All right, JJ, thanks so much, Sarbjeet, Jim, thanks for joining me on this Power Panel, cloud conversation impact, to entrepreneurship, open source. Jim Long, Sarbjeet Johal and Joseph Jacks, JJ, thanks for joining us, theCUBE Conversation here in Palo Alto, I'm John Furrier, thanks for watching. >> Thanks John. (lively classical music)

>> Narrator: Live from Las Vegas, it's the Cube, covering IBM Think 2018, brought to you by IBM. >> We're back at IBM Think 2018. You're watching the Cube, the leader in live tech coverage. My name is Dave Vellante and I'm here with my co-host, Peter Burris. Ken King is here; he's the general manager of OpenPOWER from IBM, and Sumit Gupta, PhD, who is the VP, HPC, AI, ML for IBM Cognitive. Gentleman, welcome to the Cube >> Sumit: Thank you. >> Thank you for having us. >> So, really, guys, a pleasure. We had dinner last night, talked about Picciano who runs the OpenPOWER business, appreciate you guys comin' on, but, I got to ask you, Sumit, I'll start with you. OpenPOWER, Cognitive systems, a lot of people say, "Well, that's just the power system. "This is the old AIX business, it's just renaming it. "It's a branding thing.", what do you say? >> I think we had a fundamental strategy shift where we realized that AI was going to be the dominant workload moving into the future, and the systems that have been designed today or in the past are not the right systems for the AI future. So, we also believe that it's not just about silicon and even a single server. It's about the software, it's about thinking at the react level and the data center level. So, fundamentally, Cognitive Systems is about co-designing hardware and software with an open ecosystem of partners who are innovating to maximize the data and AI support at a react level. >> Somebody was talkin' to Steve Mills, probably about 10 years ago, and he said, "Listen, if you're going to compete with Intel, "you can copy them, that's not what we're going to do." You know, he didn't like the spark strategy. "We have a better strategy.", is what he said, and "Oh, strategies, we're going to open it up, "we're going to try to get 10% of the market. "You know, we'll see if we can get there.", but, Ken, I wonder if you could sort of talk about, just from a high level, the strategy and maybe go into the segments. >> Yeah, absolutely, so, yeah, you're absolutely right on the strategy. You know, we have completely opened up the architecture. Our focus on growth is around having an ecosystem and an open architecture so everybody can innovate on top of it effectively and everybody in the ecosystem can profit from it and gains good margins. So, that's the strategy, that's how we design the OpenPOWER ecosystem, but, you know, our segments, our core segments, AIX in Unix is still a core, very big core segment of ours. Unix itself is flat to declining, but AIX is continuing to take share in that segment through all the new innovations we're delivering. The other segments are all growth segments, high growth segments, whether it's SAP HANA, our cognitive infrastructure in modern day to platform, or even what we're doing in the HyperScale data centers. Those are all significant growth opportunities for us, and those are all Linux based, and, so, that is really where a lot of the OpenPOWER initiatives are driving growth for us and leveraging the fact that, through that ecosystem, we're getting a lot of incremental innovation that's occurring and it's delivering competitive differentiation for our platform. I say for our platform, but that doesn't mean just for IBM, but for all the ecosystem partners as well, and a lot of that was on display on Monday when we had our OpenPOWER summit. >> So, to talk about more about the OpenPOWER summit, what was that all about, who was there? Give us some stats on OpenPOWER and ecosystem. >> Yeah, absolutely. So, it was a good day, we're up to well over 300 members. We have over 50 different systems that are coming out in the market from IBM or our partners. Over 20 different manufacturers out there actually developing OpenPOWER systems. A lot of announcements or a lot of statements that were made at the summit that we thought were extremely valuable, first of all, we got the number one server vendor in Europe, Atos, designing and developing P9, the number on in Japan, Hitachi, the number one in China, Inspur. We got top ODMs like Super Micro, Wistron, and others that are also developing their power nine. We have a lot of different component providers on the new PCIe gen four, on the open cabinet capabilities, a lot of announcements made by a number of component partners and accelerator partners at the summit as well. The other thing I'm excited about is we have over 70 ISVs now on the platform, and a number of statements were made and announcements on Monday from people like MapD, Anaconda, H2O, Conetica and others who are leveraging those innovations bought on the platform like NVLink and the coherency between GPU and CPU to do accelerated analytics and accelerated GPU database kind of capabilities, but the thing that had me the most excited on Monday were the end users. I've always said, and the analysts always ask me the questions of when are you going to start penetration in the market? When are you going to show that you've got a lot of end users deploying this? And there were a lot of statements by a lot of big players on Monday. Google was on stage and publicly said the IO was amazing, the memory bandwidth is amazing. We are deploying Zaius, which is the power nine server, in our data centers and we're ready for scale, and it's now Google strong which is basically saying that this thing is hardened and ready for production, but we also (laughs) had a number of other significant ones, Tencent talkin' about deploying OpenPOWER, 30% better efficiency, 30% less server resources required, the cloud armor of Alibaba talkin' about how they're putting on their on their X-Dragon, they have it in a piler program, they're asking everybody to use it now so they can figure out how do they go into production. PayPal made statements about how they're using it, but the machine learning and deep learning to do fraud detection, and we even had Limelight, who is not as big a name, but >> CDN, yeah. >> They're a CDN tool provider to people like Netflix and others. We're talkin' about the great capability with the IO and the ability to reduce the buffering and improve the streaming for all these CDN providers out there. So, we were really excited about all those end users and all the things they're saying. That demonstrates the power of this ecosystem. >> Alright, so just to comment on the architecture and then, I want to get into the Cognitive piece. I mean, you guys did, years ago, little Indians, recognizing you got to get software based to be compatible. You mentioned, Ken, bandwidth, IO bandwidth, CAPI stuff that you've done. So, there's a lot of incentives, especially for the big hyperscale guys, to be able to do more with less, but, to me, let's get into the AI, the Cognitive piece. Bob Picciano comes over from running a $15 billion analytics business, so, obviously, he's got some knowledge. He's bringin' in people like you with all these cool buzzwords in your title. So, talk a little bit about infrastructure for AI and why power is the right platform. >> Sure, so, I think we all recognize that the performance advantages and even power advantages that we were getting from Dennard scaling, also known as Moore's law, is over, right. So, people talk about the end of Moore's Law, and that's really the end of gaining processor performance with Dennard scaling and the Moore's Law. What we believe is that to continue to meet the performance needs of all of these new AI and data workloads, you need accelerators, and not just computer accelerators, you actually need accelerated networking. You need accelerated storage, you need high-density memory sitting very close to the compute power, and, if you really think about it, what's happened is, again, system view, right, we're not silicon view, we're looking at the system. The minute you start looking at the silicon you realize you want to get the data to where the computer is, or the computer where the data is. So, it all becomes about creating bigger pipelines, factor of pipelines, to move data around to get to the right compute piece. For example, we put much more emphasis on a much faster memory system to make sure we are getting data from the system memory to the CPU. >> Coherently. >> Coherently, that's the main memory. We put interfaces on power nine including NVLink, OpenCAPI, and PCIe gen four, and that enabled us to get that data either from the network to the system memory, or out back to the network, or to storage, or to accelerators like GPUs. We built and embedded these high-speed interconnects into power nine, into the processor. Nvidia put NVLink into their GPU, and we've been working with marketers like Xilinx and Mellanox on getting OpenCAPI onto their components. >> And we're seeing up to 10x for both memory bandwidth and IO over x86 which is significant. You should talk about how we're seeing up to 4x improvement in training of MLDL algorithms over x86 which is dramatic in how quickly you can get from data to insight, right? You could take training and turn it from weeks to days, or days to hours, or even hours to minutes, and that makes a huge difference in what you can do in any industry as far as getting insight out of your data which is the competitive differentiator in today's environment. >> Let's talk about this notion of architecture, or systems especially. The basic platform for how we've been building systems has been relatively consistent for a long time. The basic approach to how we think about building systems has been relatively consistent. You start with the database manager, you run it on an Intel processor, you build your application, you scale it up based on SMP needs. There's been some variations; we're going into clustering, because we do some other things, but you guys are talking about something fundamentally different, and flash memory, the ability to do flash storage, which dramatically changes the relationship between the processor and the data, means that we're not going to see all of the organization of the workloads around the server, see how much we can do in it. It's really going to be much more of a balanced approach. How is power going to provide that more balanced systems approach across as we distribute data, as we distribute processing, as we create a cloud experience that isn't in one place, but is in more places. >> Well, this ties exactly to the point I made around it's not just accelerated compute, which we've all talked about a lot over the years, it's also about accelerated storage, accelerated networking, and accelerated memories, right. This is really, the point being, that the compute, if you don't have a fast pipeline into the processor from all of this wonderful storage and flash technology, there's going to be a choke point in the network, or they'll be a choke point once the data gets to the server, you're choked then. So, a lot of our focus has been, first of all, partnering with a company like Mellanox which builds extremely high bandwidth, high-speed >> And EOF. >> Right, right, and I'm using one as an example right. >> Sure. >> I'm using one as an example and that's where the large partnerships, we have like 300 partnerships, as Ken talked about in the OpenPOWER foundation. Those partnerships is because we brought together all of these technology providers. We believe that no one company can own the agenda of technology. No one company can invest enough to continue to give us the performance we need to meet the needs of the AI workloads, and that's why we want to partner with all these technology vendors who've all invested billions of dollars to provide the best systems and software for AI and data. >> But fundamentally, >> It's the whole construct of data centric systems, right? >> Right. >> I mean, sometimes you got to process the data in the network, right? Sometimes you got to process the data in the storage. It's not just at the CPU, the GPUs a huge place for processing that data. >> Sure. >> How do you do that all coherently and how do things work together in a system environment is crucial versus a vertically integrated capability where the CPU provider continues to put more and more into the processor and disenfranchise the rest of the ecosystem. >> Well, that was the counter building strategies that we want to talk about. You have Intel who wants to put as much on the die as possible. It's worked quite well for Intel over the years. You had to take a different strategy. If you tried to take Intel on with that strategy, you would have failed. So, talk about the different philosophies, but really I'm interested in what it means for things like alternative processing and your relationship in your ecosystem. >> This is not about company strategies, right. I mean, Intel is a semiconductor company and they think like a semiconductor company. We're a systems and software company, we think like that, but this is not about company strategy. This is about what the market needs, what client workloads need, and if you start there, you start with a data centric strategy. You start with data centric systems. You think about moving data around and making sure there is heritage in this computer, there is accelerated computer, you have very fast networks. So, we just built the US's fastest supercomputer. We're currently building the US's fastest supercomputer which is the project name is Coral, but there are two supercomputers, one at Oak Ridge National Labs and one at Lawrence Livermore. These are the ultimate HPC and AI machines, right. Its computer's a very important part of them, but networking and storage is just as important. The file system is just as important. The cluster management software is just as important, right, because if you are serving data scientists and a biologist, they don't want to deal with, "How many servers do I need to launch this job on? "How do I manage the jobs, how do I manage the server?" You want them to just scale, right. So, we do a lot of work on our scalability. We do a lot of work in using Apache Spark to enable cluster virtualization and user virtualization. >> Well, if we think about, I don't like the term data gravity, it's wrong a lot of different perspectives, but if we think about it, you guys are trying to build systems in a world that's centered on data, as opposed to a world that's centered on the server. >> That's exactly right. >> That's right. >> You got that, right? >> That's exactly right. >> Yeah, absolutely. >> Alright, you guys got to go, we got to wrap, but I just want to close with, I mean, always says infrastructure matters. You got Z growing, you got power growing, you got storage growing, it's given a good tailwind to IBM, so, guys, great work. Congratulations, got a lot more to do, I know, but thanks for >> It's going to be a fun year. comin' on the Cube, appreciate it. >> Thank you very much. >> Thank you. >> Appreciate you having us. >> Alright, keep it right there, everybody. We'll be back with our next guest. You're watching the Cube live from IBM Think 2018. We'll be right back. (techno beat)