>> From "theCube" Studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data-driven insights from "theCube" and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> As an independent pure play company, Palo Alto Networks has earned its status as the leader in security. You can measure this in a variety of ways. Revenue, market cap, execution, ethos, and most importantly, conversations with customers generally. In CISO specifically, who consistently affirm this position. The company's on track to double its revenues in fiscal year 23 relative to fiscal year 2020. Despite macro headwinds, which are likely to carry through next year, Palo Alto owes its position to a clarity of vision and strong execution on a TAM expansion strategy through acquisitions and integration into its cloud and SaaS offerings. Hello and welcome to this week's "Wikibon Cube Insights" powered by ETR and this breaking analysis and ahead of Palo Alto Ignite the company's user conference, we bring you the next chapter on top of the last week's cybersecurity update. We're going to dig into the ETR data on Palo Alto Networks as we promised and provide a glimpse of what we're going to look for at "Ignite" and posit what Palo Alto needs to do to stay on top of the hill. Now, the challenges for cybersecurity professionals. Dead simple to understand. Solving it, not so much. This is a taxonomic eye test, if you will, from Optiv. It's one of our favorite artifacts to make the point the cybersecurity landscape is a mosaic of stovepipes. Security professionals have to work with dozens of tools many legacy combined with shiny new toys to try and keep up with the relentless pace of innovation catalyzed by the incredibly capable well-funded and motivated adversaries. Cybersecurity is an anomalous market in that the leaders have low single digit market shares. Think about that. Cisco at one point held 60% market share in the networking business and it's still deep into the 40s. Oracle captures around 30% of database market revenue. EMC and storage at its peak had more than 30% of that market. Even Dell's PC market shares, you know, in the mid 20s or even over that from a revenue standpoint. So cybersecurity from a market share standpoint is even more fragmented perhaps than the software industry. Okay, you get the point. So despite its position as the number one player Palo Alto might have maybe three maybe 4% of the total market, depending on what you use as your denominator, but just a tiny slice. So how is it that we can sit here and declare Palo Alto as the undisputed leader? Well, we probably wouldn't go that far. They probably have quite a bit of competition. But this CISO from a recent ETR round table discussion with our friend Eric Bradley, summed up Palo Alto's allure. We thought pretty well. The question was why Palo Alto Networks? Here's the answer. Because of its completeness as a platform, its ability to integrate with its own products or they acquire, integrate then rebrand them as their own. We've looked at other vendors we just didn't think they were as mature and we already had implemented some of the Palo Alto tools like the firewalls and stuff and we thought why not go holistically with the vendor a single throat to choke, if you will, if stuff goes wrong. And I think that was probably the primary driver and familiarity with the tools and the resources that they provided. Now here's another stat from ETR's Eric Bradley. He gave us a glimpse of the January survey that's in the field now. The percent of IT buyers stating that they plan to consolidate redundant vendors, it went from 34% in the October survey and now stands at 44%. So we fo we feel this bodes well for consolidators like Palo Alto networks. And the same is true from Microsoft's kind of good enough approach. It should also be true for CrowdStrike although last quarter we saw softness reported on in their SMB market, whereas interestingly MongoDB actually saw consistent strength from its SMB and its self-serve. So that's something that we're watching very closely. Now, Palo Alto Networks has held up better than most of its peers in the stock market. So let's take a look at that real quick. This chart gives you a sense of how well. It's a one year comparison of Palo Alto with the bug ETF. That's the cyber basket that we like to compare often CrowdStrike, Zscaler, and Okta. Now remember Palo Alto, they didn't run up as much as CrowdStrike, ZS and Okta during the pandemic but you can see it's now down unquote only 9% for the year. Whereas the cyber basket ETF is off 27% roughly in line with the NASDAQ. We're not showing that CrowdStrike down 44%, Zscaler down 61% and Okta off a whopping 72% in the past 12 months. Now as we've indicated, Palo Alto is making a strong case for consolidating point tools and we think it will have a much harder time getting customers to switch off of big platforms like Cisco who's another leader in network security. But based on the fragmentation in the market there's plenty of room to grow in our view. We asked breaking analysis contributor Chip Simington for his take on the technicals of the stock and he said that despite Palo Alto's leadership position it doesn't seem to make much difference these days. It's all about interest rates. And even though this name has performed better than its peers, it looks like the stock wants to keep testing its 52 week lows, but he thinks Palo Alto got oversold during the last big selloff. And the fact that the company's free cash flow is so strong probably keeps it at the one 50 level or above maybe bouncing around there for a while. If it breaks through that under to the downside it's ne next test is at that low of around one 40 level. So thanks for that, Chip. Now having get that out of the way as we said on the previous chart Palo Alto has strong opinions, it's founder and CTO, Nir Zuk, is extremely clear on that point of view. So let's take a look at how Palo Alto got to where it is today and how we think you should think about his future. The company was founded around 18 years ago as a network security company focused on what they called NextGen firewalls. Now, what Palo Alto did was different. They didn't try to stuff a bunch of functionality inside of a hardware box. Rather they layered network security functions on top of its firewalls and delivered value as a service through software running at the time in its own cloud. So pretty obvious today, but forward thinking for the time and now they've moved to a more true cloud native platform and much more activity in the public cloud. In February, 2020, right before the pandemic we reported on the divergence in market values between Palo Alto and Fort Net and we cited some challenges that Palo Alto was happening having transitioning to a cloud native model. And at the time we said we were confident that Palo Alto would make it through the knot hole. And you could see from the previous chart that it has. So the company's architectural approach was to do the heavy lifting in the cloud. And this eliminates the need for customers to deploy sensors on prem or proxies on prem or sandboxes on prem sandboxes, you know for instance are vulnerable to overwhelming attacks. Think about it, if you're a sandbox is on prem you're not going to be updating that every day. No way. You're probably not going to updated even every week or every month. And if the capacity of your sandbox is let's say 20,000 files an hour you know a hacker's just going to turn up the volume, it'll overwhelm you. They'll send a hundred thousand emails attachments into your sandbox and they'll choke you out and then they'll have the run of the house while you're trying to recover. Now the cloud doesn't completely prevent that but what it does, it definitely increases the hacker's cost. So they're going to probably hit some easier targets and that's kind of the objective of security firms. You know, increase the denominator on the ROI. All right, the next thing that Palo Alto did is start acquiring aggressively, I think we counted 17 or 18 acquisitions to expand the TAM beyond network security into endpoint CASB, PaaS security, IaaS security, container security, serverless security, incident response, SD WAN, CICD pipeline security, attack service management, supply chain security. Just recently with the acquisition of Cider Security and Palo Alto by all accounts takes the time to integrate into its cloud and SaaS platform called Prisma. Unlike many acquisitive companies in the past EMC was a really good example where you ended up with a kind of a Franken portfolio. Now all this leads us to believe that Palo Alto wants to be the consolidator and is in a good position to do so. But beyond that, as multi-cloud becomes more prevalent and more of a strategy customers tell us they want a consistent experience across clouds. And is going to be the same by the way with IoT. So of the next wave here. Customers don't want another stove pipe. So we think Palo Alto is in a good position to build what we call the security super cloud that layer above the clouds that brings a common experience for devs and operational teams. So of course the obvious question is this, can Palo Alto networks continue on this path of acquire and integrate and still maintain best of breed status? Can it? Will it? Does it even have to? As Holger Mueller of Constellation Research and I talk about all the time integrated suites seem to always beat best of breed in the long run. We'll come back to that. Now, this next graphic that we're going to show you underscores this question about portfolio. Here's a picture and I don't expect you to digest it all but it's a screen grab of Palo Alto's product and solutions portfolios, network cloud, network security rather, cloud security, Sassy, CNAP, endpoint unit 42 which is their threat intelligence platform and every imaginable security service and solution for customers. Well, maybe not every, I'm sure there's more to come like supply chain with the recent Cider acquisition and maybe more IoT beyond ZingBox and earlier acquisition but we're sure there will be more in the future both organic and inorganic. Okay, let's bring in more of the ETR survey data. For those of you who don't know ETR, they are the number one enterprise data platform surveying thousands of end customers every quarter with additional drill down surveys and customer round tables just an awesome SaaS enabled platform. And here's a view that shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis in provision or presence within the ETR data set on the horizontal axis. You see that red dotted line at 40%. Anything at or over that indicates a highly elevated net score. And as you can see Palo Alto is right on that line just under. And I'll give you another glimpse it looks like Palo Alto despite the macro may even just edge up a bit in the next survey based on the glimpse that Eric gave us. Now those colored bars in the bottom right corner they show the breakdown of Palo Alto's net score and underscore the methodology that ETR uses. The lime green is new customer adoptions, that's 7%. The forest green at 38% represents the percent of customers that are spending 6% or more on Palo Alto solutions. The gray is at that 40 or 8% that's flat spending plus or minus 5%. The pinkish at 5% is spending is down on Palo Alto network products by 6% or worse. And the bright red at only 2% is churn or defections. Very low single digit numbers for Palo Alto, that's a real positive. What you do is you subtract the red from the green and you get a net score of 38% which is very good for a company of Palo Alto size. And we'll note this is based on just under 400 responses in the ETR survey that are Palo Alto customers out of around 1300 in the total survey. It's a really good representation of Palo Alto. And you can see the other leading companies like CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler, Forte, Cisco they loom large with similar aspirations. Well maybe not so much Okta. They don't necessarily rule want to rule the world. They want to rule identity and of course the ever ubiquitous Microsoft in the upper right. Now drilling deeper into the ETR data, let's look at how Palo Alto has progressed over the last three surveys in terms of market presence in the survey. This view of the data shows provision in the data going back to October, 2021, that's the gray bars. The blue is July 22 and the yellow is the latest survey from October, 2022. Remember, the January survey is currently in the field. Now the leftmost set of data there show size a company. The middle set of data shows the industry for a select number of industries in the right most shows, geographic region. Notice anything, yes, Palo Alto up across the board relative to both this past summer and last fall. So that's pretty impressive. Palo Alto network CEO, Nikesh Aurora, stressed on the last earnings call that the company is seeing somewhat elongated deal approvals and sometimes splitting up size of deals. He's stressed that certain industries like energy, government and financial services continue to spend. But we would expect even a pullback there as companies get more conservative. But the point is that Nikesh talked about how they're hiring more sales pros to work the pipeline because they understand that they have to work harder to pull deals forward 'cause they got to get more approvals and they got to increase the volume that's coming through the pipeline to account for the possibility that certain companies are going to split up the deals, you know, large deals they want to split into to smaller bite size chunks. So they're really going hard after they go to market expansion to account for that. All right, so we're going to wrap by sharing what we expect and what we're going to probe for at Palo Alto Ignite next week, Lisa Martin and I will be hosting "theCube" and here's what we'll be looking for. First, it's a four day event at the MGM with the meat of the program on days two and three. That's day two was the big keynote. That's when we'll start our broadcasting, we're going for two days. Now our understanding is we've never done Palo Alto Ignite before but our understanding it's a pretty technically oriented crowd that's going to be eager to hear what CTO and founder Nir Zuk has to say. And as well CEO Nikesh Aurora and as in addition to longtime friend of "theCube" and current president, BJ Jenkins, he's going to be speaking. Wendy Whitmore runs Unit 42 and is going to be several other high profile Palo Alto execs, as well, Thomas Kurian from Google is a featured speaker. Lee Claridge, who is Palo Alto's, chief product officer we think is going to be giving the audience heavy doses of Prisma Cloud and Cortex enhancements. Now, Cortex, you might remember, came from an acquisition and does threat detection and attack surface management. And we're going to hear a lot about we think about security automation. So we'll be listening for how Cortex has been integrated and what kind of uptake that it's getting. We've done some, you know, modeling in from the ETR. Guys have done some modeling of cortex, you know looks like it's got a lot of upside and through the Palo Alto go to market machine, you know could really pick up momentum. That's something that we'll be probing for. Now, one of the other things that we'll be watching is pricing. We want to talk to customers about their spend optimization, their spending patterns, their vendor consolidation strategies. Look, Palo Alto is a premium offering. It charges for value. It's expensive. So we also want to understand what kind of switching costs are customers willing to absorb and how onerous they are and what's the business case look like? How are they thinking about that business case. We also want to understand and really probe on how will Palo Alto maintain best of breed as it continues to acquire and integrate to expand its TAM and appeal as that one-stop shop. You know, can it do that as we talked about before. And will it do that? There's also an interesting tension going on sort of changing subjects here in security. There's a guy named Edward Hellekey who's been in "theCube" before. He hasn't been in "theCube" in a while but he's a security pro who has educated us on the nuances of protecting data privacy, public policy, how it varies by region and how complicated it is relative to security. Because securities you technically you have to show a chain of custody that proves unequivocally, for example that data has been deleted or scrubbed or that metadata does. It doesn't include any residual private data that violates the laws, the local laws. And the tension is this, you need good data and lots of it to have good security, really the more the better. But government policy is often at odds in a major blocker to sharing data and it's getting more so. So we want to understand this tension and how companies like Palo Alto are dealing with it. Our customers testing public policy in courts we think not quite yet, our government's making exceptions and policies like GDPR that favor security over data privacy. What are the trade-offs there? And finally, one theme of this breaking analysis is what does Palo Alto have to do to stay on top? And we would sum it up with three words. Ecosystem, ecosystem, ecosystem. And we said this at CrowdStrike Falcon in September that the one concern we had was the pace of ecosystem development for CrowdStrike. Is collaboration possible with competitors? Is being adopted aggressively? Is Palo Alto being adopted aggressively by global system integrators? What's the uptake there? What about developers? Look, the hallmark of a cloud company which Palo Alto is a cloud security company is a thriving ecosystem that has entries into and exits from its platform. So we'll be looking at what that ecosystem looks like how vibrant and inclusive it is where the public clouds fit and whether Palo Alto Networks can really become the security super cloud. Okay, that's a wrap stop by next week. If you're in Vegas, say hello to "theCube" team. We have an unbelievable lineup on the program. Now if you're not there, check out our coverage on theCube.net. I want to thank Eric Bradley for sharing a glimpse on short notice of the upcoming survey from ETR and his thoughts. And as always, thanks to Chip Symington for his sharp comments. Want to thank Alex Morrison, who's on production and manages the podcast Ken Schiffman as well in our Boston studio, Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight they help get the word out on social and of course in our newsletters, Rob Hoof, is our editor in chief over at Silicon Angle who does some awesome editing, thank you to all. Remember all these episodes they're available as podcasts. Wherever you listen, all you got to do is search "Breaking Analysis" podcasts. I publish each week on wikibon.com and silicon angle.com where you can email me at david.valante@siliconangle.com or dm me at D Valante or comment on our LinkedIn post. And please do check out etr.ai. They've got the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Valante for "theCube" Insights powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next week on "Ignite" or next time on "Breaking Analysis". (upbeat music)

>> Announcer: From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> The rapid pace of cloud adoption has changed the way organizations approach cybersecurity. Specifically, the cloud is increasingly becoming the first line of cyber defense. As such, along with communicating to the board and creating a security aware culture, the chief information security officer must ensure that the shared responsibility model is being applied properly. Meanwhile, the DevSecOps team has emerged as the critical link between strategy and execution, while audit becomes the free safety, if you will, in the equation, i.e., the last line of defense. Hello, and welcome to this week's, we keep on CUBE Insights, powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis", we'll share the latest data on hyperscale, IaaS, and PaaS market performance, along with some fresh ETR survey data. And we'll share some highlights and the puts and takes from the recent AWS re:Inforce event in Boston. But first, the macro. It's earning season, and that's what many people want to talk about, including us. As we reported last week, the macro spending picture is very mixed and weird. Think back to a week ago when SNAP reported. A player like SNAP misses and the Nasdaq drops 300 points. Meanwhile, Intel, the great semiconductor hope for America misses by a mile, cuts its revenue outlook by 15% for the year, and the Nasdaq was up nearly 250 points just ahead of the close, go figure. Earnings reports from Meta, Google, Microsoft, ServiceNow, and some others underscored cautious outlooks, especially those exposed to the advertising revenue sector. But at the same time, Apple, Microsoft, and Google, were, let's say less bad than expected. And that brought a sigh of relief. And then there's Amazon, which beat on revenue, it beat on cloud revenue, and it gave positive guidance. The Nasdaq has seen this month best month since the isolation economy, which "Breaking Analysis" contributor, Chip Symington, attributes to what he calls an oversold rally. But there are many unknowns that remain. How bad will inflation be? Will the fed really stop tightening after September? The Senate just approved a big spending bill along with corporate tax hikes, which generally don't favor the economy. And on Monday, August 1st, the market will likely realize that we are in the summer quarter, and there's some work to be done. Which is why it's not surprising that investors sold the Nasdaq at the close today on Friday. Are people ready to call the bottom? Hmm, some maybe, but there's still lots of uncertainty. However, the cloud continues its march, despite some very slight deceleration in growth rates from the two leaders. Here's an update of our big four IaaS quarterly revenue data. The big four hyperscalers will account for $165 billion in revenue this year, slightly lower than what we had last quarter. We expect AWS to surpass 83 billion this year in revenue. Azure will be more than 2/3rds the size of AWS, a milestone from Microsoft. Both AWS and Azure came in slightly below our expectations, but still very solid growth at 33% and 46% respectively. GCP, Google Cloud Platform is the big concern. By our estimates GCP's growth rate decelerated from 47% in Q1, and was 38% this past quarter. The company is struggling to keep up with the two giants. Remember, both GCP and Azure, they play a shell game and hide the ball on their IaaS numbers, so we have to use a survey data and other means of estimating. But this is how we see the market shaping up in 2022. Now, before we leave the overall cloud discussion, here's some ETR data that shows the net score or spending momentum granularity for each of the hyperscalers. These bars show the breakdown for each company, with net score on the right and in parenthesis, net score from last quarter. lime green is new adoptions, forest green is spending up 6% or more, the gray is flat, pink is spending at 6% down or worse, and the bright red is replacement or churn. Subtract the reds from the greens and you get net score. One note is this is for each company's overall portfolio. So it's not just cloud. So it's a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple points worth noting. First, anything above 40% or 40, here as shown in the chart, is considered elevated. AWS, as you can see, is well above that 40% mark, as is Microsoft. And if you isolate Microsoft's Azure, only Azure, it jumps above AWS's momentum. Google is just barely hanging on to that 40 line, and Alibaba is well below, with both Google and Alibaba showing much higher replacements, that bright red. But here's the key point. AWS and Azure have virtually no churn, no replacements in that bright red. And all four companies are experiencing single-digit numbers in terms of decreased spending within customer accounts. People may be moving some workloads back on-prem selectively, but repatriation is definitely not a trend to bet the house on, in our view. Okay, let's get to the main subject of this "Breaking Analysis". TheCube was at AWS re:Inforce in Boston this week, and we have some observations to share. First, we had keynotes from Steven Schmidt who used to be the chief information security officer at Amazon on Web Services, now he's the CSO, the chief security officer of Amazon. Overall, he dropped the I in his title. CJ Moses is the CISO for AWS. Kurt Kufeld of AWS also spoke, as did Lena Smart, who's the MongoDB CISO, and she keynoted and also came on theCUBE. We'll go back to her in a moment. The key point Schmidt made, one of them anyway, was that Amazon sees more data points in a day than most organizations see in a lifetime. Actually, it adds up to quadrillions over a fairly short period of time, I think, it was within a month. That's quadrillion, it's 15 zeros, by the way. Now, there was drill down focus on data protection and privacy, governance, risk, and compliance, GRC, identity, big, big topic, both within AWS and the ecosystem, network security, and threat detection. Those are the five really highlighted areas. Re:Inforce is really about bringing a lot of best practice guidance to security practitioners, like how to get the most out of AWS tooling. Schmidt had a very strong statement saying, he said, "I can assure you with a 100% certainty that single controls and binary states will absolutely positively fail." Hence, the importance of course, of layered security. We heard a little bit of chat about getting ready for the future and skating to the security puck where quantum computing threatens to hack all of the existing cryptographic algorithms, and how AWS is trying to get in front of all that, and a new set of algorithms came out, AWS is testing. And, you know, we'll talk about that maybe in the future, but that's a ways off. And by its prominent presence, the ecosystem was there enforced, to talk about their role and filling the gaps and picking up where AWS leaves off. We heard a little bit about ransomware defense, but surprisingly, at least in the keynotes, no discussion about air gaps, which we've talked about in previous "Breaking Analysis", is a key factor. We heard a lot about services to help with threat detection and container security and DevOps, et cetera, but there really wasn't a lot of specific talk about how AWS is simplifying the life of the CISO. Now, maybe it's inherently assumed as AWS did a good job stressing that security is job number one, very credible and believable in that front. But you have to wonder if the world is getting simpler or more complex with cloud. And, you know, you might say, "Well, Dave, come on, of course it's better with cloud." But look, attacks are up, the threat surface is expanding, and new exfiltration records are being set every day. I think the hard truth is, the cloud is driving businesses forward and accelerating digital, and those businesses are now exposed more than ever. And that's why security has become such an important topic to boards and throughout the entire organization. Now, the other epiphany that we had at re:Inforce is that there are new layers and a new trust framework emerging in cyber. Roles are shifting, and as a direct result of the cloud, things are changing within organizations. And this first hit me in a conversation with long-time cyber practitioner and Wikibon colleague from our early Wikibon days, and friend, Mike Versace. And I spent two days testing the premise that Michael and I talked about. And here's an attempt to put that conversation into a graphic. The cloud is now the first line of defense. AWS specifically, but hyperscalers generally provide the services, the talent, the best practices, and automation tools to secure infrastructure and their physical data centers. And they're really good at it. The security inside of hyperscaler clouds is best of breed, it's world class. And that first line of defense does take some of the responsibility off of CISOs, but they have to understand and apply the shared responsibility model, where the cloud provider leaves it to the customer, of course, to make sure that the infrastructure they're deploying is properly configured. So in addition to creating a cyber aware culture and communicating up to the board, the CISO has to ensure compliance with and adherence to the model. That includes attracting and retaining the talent necessary to succeed. Now, on the subject of building a security culture, listen to this clip on one of the techniques that Lena Smart, remember, she's the CISO of MongoDB, one of the techniques she uses to foster awareness and build security cultures in her organization. Play the clip >> Having the Security Champion program, so that's just, it's like one of my babies. That and helping underrepresented groups in MongoDB kind of get on in the tech world are both really important to me. And so the Security Champion program is purely purely voluntary. We have over 100 members. And these are people, there's no bar to join, you don't have to be technical. If you're an executive assistant who wants to learn more about security, like my assistant does, you're more than welcome. Up to, we actually, people grade themselves when they join us. We give them a little tick box, like five is, I walk on security water, one is I can spell security, but I'd like to learn more. Mixing those groups together has been game-changing for us. >> Now, the next layer is really where it gets interesting. DevSecOps, you know, we hear about it all the time, shifting left. It implies designing security into the code at the dev level. Shift left and shield right is the kind of buzz phrase. But it's getting more and more complicated. So there are layers within the development cycle, i.e., securing the container. So the app code can't be threatened by backdoors or weaknesses in the containers. Then, securing the runtime to make sure the code is maintained and compliant. Then, the DevOps platform so that change management doesn't create gaps and exposures, and screw things up. And this is just for the application security side of the equation. What about the network and implementing zero trust principles, and securing endpoints, and machine to machine, and human to app communication? So there's a lot of burden being placed on the DevOps team, and they have to partner with the SecOps team to succeed. Those guys are not security experts. And finally, there's audit, which is the last line of defense or what I called at the open, the free safety, for you football fans. They have to do more than just tick the box for the board. That doesn't cut it anymore. They really have to know their stuff and make sure that what they sign off on is real. And then you throw ESG into the mix is becoming more important, making sure the supply chain is green and also secure. So you can see, while much of this stuff has been around for a long, long time, the cloud is accelerating innovation in the pace of delivery. And so much is changing as a result. Now, next, I want to share a graphic that we shared last week, but a little different twist. It's an XY graphic with net score or spending velocity in the vertical axis and overlap or presence in the dataset on the horizontal. With that magic 40% red line as shown. Okay, I won't dig into the data and draw conclusions 'cause we did that last week, but two points I want to make. First, look at Microsoft in the upper-right hand corner. They are big in security and they're attracting a lot of dollars in the space. We've reported on this for a while. They're a five-star security company. And every time, from a spending standpoint in ETR data, that little methodology we use, every time I've run this chart, I've wondered, where the heck is AWS? Why aren't they showing up there? If security is so important to AWS, which it is, and its customers, why aren't they spending money with Amazon on security? And I asked this very question to Merrit Baer, who resides in the office of the CISO at AWS. Listen to her answer. >> It doesn't mean don't spend on security. There is a lot of goodness that we have to offer in ESS, external security services. But I think one of the unique parts of AWS is that we don't believe that security is something you should buy, it's something that you get from us. It's something that we do for you a lot of the time. I mean, this is the definition of the shared responsibility model, right? >> Now, maybe that's good messaging to the market. Merritt, you know, didn't say it outright, but essentially, Microsoft they charge for security. At AWS, it comes with the package. But it does answer my question. And, of course, the fact is that AWS can subsidize all this with egress charges. Now, on the flip side of that, (chuckles) you got Microsoft, you know, they're both, they're competing now. We can take CrowdStrike for instance. Microsoft and CrowdStrike, they compete with each other head to head. So it's an interesting dynamic within the ecosystem. Okay, but I want to turn to a powerful example of how AWS designs in security. And that is the idea of confidential computing. Of course, AWS is not the only one, but we're coming off of re:Inforce, and I really want to dig into something that David Floyer and I have talked about in previous episodes. And we had an opportunity to sit down with Arvind Raghu and J.D. Bean, two security experts from AWS, to talk about this subject. And let's share what we learned and why we think it matters. First, what is confidential computing? That's what this slide is designed to convey. To AWS, they would describe it this way. It's the use of special hardware and the associated firmware that protects customer code and data from any unauthorized access while the data is in use, i.e., while it's being processed. That's oftentimes a security gap. And there are two dimensions here. One is protecting the data and the code from operators on the cloud provider, i.e, in this case, AWS, and protecting the data and code from the customers themselves. In other words, from admin level users are possible malicious actors on the customer side where the code and data is being processed. And there are three capabilities that enable this. First, the AWS Nitro System, which is the foundation for virtualization. The second is Nitro Enclaves, which isolate environments, and then third, the Nitro Trusted Platform Module, TPM, which enables cryptographic assurances of the integrity of the Nitro instances. Now, we've talked about Nitro in the past, and we think it's a revolutionary innovation, so let's dig into that a bit. This is an AWS slide that was shared about how they protect and isolate data and code. On the left-hand side is a classical view of a virtualized architecture. You have a single host or a single server, and those white boxes represent processes on the main board, X86, or could be Intel, or AMD, or alternative architectures. And you have the hypervisor at the bottom which translates instructions to the CPU, allowing direct execution from a virtual machine into the CPU. But notice, you also have blocks for networking, and storage, and security. And the hypervisor emulates or translates IOS between the physical resources and the virtual machines. And it creates some overhead. Now, companies like VMware have done a great job, and others, of stripping out some of that overhead, but there's still an overhead there. That's why people still like to run on bare metal. Now, and while it's not shown in the graphic, there's an operating system in there somewhere, which is privileged, so it's got access to these resources, and it provides the services to the VMs. Now, on the right-hand side, you have the Nitro system. And you can see immediately the differences between the left and right, because the networking, the storage, and the security, the management, et cetera, they've been separated from the hypervisor and that main board, which has the Intel, AMD, throw in Graviton and Trainium, you know, whatever XPUs are in use in the cloud. And you can see that orange Nitro hypervisor. That is a purpose-built lightweight component for this system. And all the other functions are separated in isolated domains. So very strong isolation between the cloud software and the physical hardware running workloads, i.e., those white boxes on the main board. Now, this will run at practically bare metal speeds, and there are other benefits as well. One of the biggest is security. As we've previously reported, this came out of AWS's acquisition of Annapurna Labs, which we've estimated was picked up for a measly $350 million, which is a drop in the bucket for AWS to get such a strategic asset. And there are three enablers on this side. One is the Nitro cards, which are accelerators to offload that wasted work that's done in traditional architectures by typically the X86. We've estimated 25% to 30% of core capacity and cycles is wasted on those offloads. The second is the Nitro security chip, which is embedded and extends the root of trust to the main board hardware. And finally, the Nitro hypervisor, which allocates memory and CPU resources. So the Nitro cards communicate directly with the VMs without the hypervisors getting in the way, and they're not in the path. And all that data is encrypted while it's in motion, and of course, encryption at rest has been around for a while. We asked AWS, is this an, we presumed it was an Arm-based architecture. We wanted to confirm that. Or is it some other type of maybe hybrid using X86 and Arm? They told us the following, and quote, "The SoC, system on chips, for these hardware components are purpose-built and custom designed in-house by Amazon and Annapurna Labs. The same group responsible for other silicon innovations such as Graviton, Inferentia, Trainium, and AQUA. Now, the Nitro cards are Arm-based and do not use any X86 or X86/64 bit CPUs. Okay, so it confirms what we thought. So you may say, "Why should we even care about all this technical mumbo jumbo, Dave?" Well, a year ago, David Floyer and I published this piece explaining why Nitro and Graviton are secret weapons of Amazon that have been a decade in the making, and why everybody needs some type of Nitro to compete in the future. This is enabled, this Nitro innovations and the custom silicon enabled by the Annapurna acquisition. And AWS has the volume economics to make custom silicon. Not everybody can do it. And it's leveraging the Arm ecosystem, the standard software, and the fabrication volume, the manufacturing volume to revolutionize enterprise computing. Nitro, with the alternative processor, architectures like Graviton and others, enables AWS to be on a performance, cost, and power consumption curve that blows away anything we've ever seen from Intel. And Intel's disastrous earnings results that we saw this past week are a symptom of this mega trend that we've been talking about for years. In the same way that Intel and X86 destroyed the market for RISC chips, thanks to PC volumes, Arm is blowing away X86 with volume economics that cannot be matched by Intel. Thanks to, of course, to mobile and edge. Our prediction is that these innovations and the Arm ecosystem are migrating and will migrate further into enterprise computing, which is Intel's stronghold. Now, that stronghold is getting eaten away by the likes of AMD, Nvidia, and of course, Arm in the form of Graviton and other Arm-based alternatives. Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Alibaba, and others are all designing custom silicon, and doing so much faster than Intel can go from design to tape out, roughly cutting that time in half. And the premise of this piece is that every company needs a Nitro to enable alternatives to the X86 in order to support emergent workloads that are data rich and AI-based, and to compete from an economic standpoint. So while at re:Inforce, we heard that the impetus for Nitro was security. Of course, the Arm ecosystem, and its ascendancy has enabled, in our view, AWS to create a platform that will set the enterprise computing market this decade and beyond. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Morrison, who is on production. And he does the podcast. And Ken Schiffman, our newest member of our Boston Studio team is also on production. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight help spread the word on social media and in the community. And Rob Hof is our editor in chief over at SiliconANGLE. He does some great, great work for us. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcast. Wherever you listen, just search "Breaking Analysis" podcast. I publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. Or you can email me directly at David.Vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante, comment on my LinkedIn post. And please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights, powered by ETR. Thanks for watching. Be well, and we'll see you next time on "Breaking Analysis." (upbeat theme music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is breaking analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Despite fears of inflation, supply chain issues skyrocketing energy and home prices and global instability caused by the Ukraine crisis CIOs and IT buyers continue to expect overall spending to increase more than 6% in 2022. Now, while this is lower than our 8% prediction that we made earlier this year in January, it remains in line with last year's roughly six to 7% growth and is holding firm with the expectations reported by tech executives on the ETR surveys last quarter. Hello and welcome to this week's wiki bond cube insights powered by ETR in this breaking analysis, we'll update you on our latest look at tech spending with a preliminary take from ETR's latest macro drill down survey. We'll share some insights to which vendors have shown the biggest change in spending trajectory. And we'll tap our technical analysts to get a read on what they think it means for technology stocks going forward. The IT spending sentiment among IT buyers remains pretty solid. >> In the past two months, we've had conversations with dozens of CIOs, chief digital officers data executives, IT managers, and application developers, and across the board, they've indicated that for now at least their spending levels remain largely unchanged. The latest ETR drill down data which will share shortly, confirms these anecdotal checks. However, the interpretation of this data it's somewhat nuanced. Part of the reason for the spending levels being you know reasonably strong and holding up is inflation. Stuff costs more so spending levels are higher forcing IT managers to prioritize. Now security remains the number one priority and is less susceptible to cuts, cloud migration, productivity initiatives and other data projects remain top priorities. >> So where are CIO's robbing from Peter to pay Paul to focus on these priorities? Well, we've seen a slight uptick in certain speculative. IT projects being put on hold or frozen for a period of time. And according to ETR survey data we've seen some hiring freezes reported and this is especially notable in the healthcare sector. ETR also surveyed its buyer base to find out where they were adjusting their budgets and the strategies and tactics they were using to do so. Consolidating IT vendors was by far the most cited tactic. Now this makes sense as companies in an effort to negotiate better deals will often forego investments in newer so-called best of breed products and services, and negotiate bundles from larger suppliers. You know, even though they might not be as functional, the buyers >> can get a better deal if they bundle together from one of their larger suppliers. Think Microsoft or a Dell or other, you know, large companies. ETR survey respondents also cited cutting the cloud bill where discretionary spending was in play was another strategy or tactic that they were using. We certainly saw this with some of the largest snowflake customers this past quarter. Where even though they were still growing consumption rapidly certain snowflake customers dialed down their consumption and pushed spending off to future quarters. Now remember in the case of snowflake, anyway, customers negotiate consumption rates and their pricing based on a total commitment over a period of time. So while they may consume less in one quarter, over the lifetime of the contract, snowflake, as do many other cloud companies, have good visibility on the lifetime value of a deal. Now this next chart shows the latest ETR spending expectations among more than 900 respondents. The bars represent spending growth expectations from the periods of December, 2021 that's the gray bars, March of 2022 survey in the blue, and the most recent June data, That's the yellow bar. So you can see spending expectations for the quarter is down slightly in the mid 5% range. But overall for the year expectations remain in the mid 6% range. Now it's down from 8%, 8.3% in December where it looked like 2022 was going to really be a breakout year and have more momentum than even last year. Now, remember this was before Russia invaded Ukraine which occurred in mid-February of this year. So expectations were a little higher. So look, generally speaking CIOs have told us that their CFOs and CEOs have lowered their earnings outlooks and communicated that to Wall Street. They've told us that unless and until these revised forecasts appear at risk, they continue to expect their budget levels to remain pretty constant. Now there's still plenty of momentum and spending velocity on specific vendor platforms. Let's take a look at that. >> This chart shows the companies with the greatest spending momentum as measured by ETRs proprietary net score methodology. Net score essentially measures the net percent of customers spending more on a particular platform. That measurement is shown on the Y axis. The red line there that's inserted that red dotted line at 40%, we consider to be a highly elevated mark. And the green dots are companies in the ETR survey that are near or above that line. The X axis measures the presence in the data set, how much, you know sort of pervasiveness, if you will, is in the data. It's kind of a proxy for market presence. Now, of course we all know Kubernetes is not a company, but it remains an area where organizations are spending lots of resources and time particularly to modernize and mobilize applications. Snowflake remains the company which leads all firms in spending velocity, but as you'll see momentarily, despite its highest position relative to everybody else in the survey, it's still down from its previous levels in the high seventies and low 80% range. AWS is incredibly impressive because it has an elevated level but also a big presence in the data set in the survey. Same with Microsoft, same with ServiceNow which also stands out. And you can see the other smaller vendors like HashiCorp which is increasingly being seen as a strategic cross cloud enabler. They're showing, spending momentum. The RPA vendors you see in there automation anywhere and UI path are in the mix with numerous security companies, CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Netskope, Cloudflare, Tenable Okta, Zscaler Palo Alto networks, Sale Point Fortunate. A big number of cybersecurity firms hovering at or above that 40% mark you can see pure storage remains elevated as do PagerDuty and Coupa. So plenty of good news here, despite the recent tech crash. So that was the good, here's the not so good. So >> there is no 40% line on this chart because all these companies are well below that line. Now this doesn't mean these companies are bad companies. They just don't have the spending velocity of the ones we showed earlier. A good example here is Oracle. Look how they stand out on the X axis with a huge market presence. And Oracle remains an incredibly successful company selling to high end customers and really owning that mission critical data and application space. And remember ETR measures spending activity, but not actual spending dollars. So Oracle is skewed as a result because Oracle customers spend big bucks. But the fact is that Oracle has a large legacy install base that pulls down their growth rates. And that does show up in the ETR survey data. Broadcom is another example. They're one of the most successful companies in the industry, and they're not going after growth at all costs at all. They're going after EBITDA and of course ETR doesn't measure EBIT. So just keep that in mind, as you look at this data. Now another way to look at the data and the survey, is exploring the net score movement over the last period amongst companies. So how are they moving? What's happening to the net score over time. And this chart shows the year over year >> net score change for vendors that participate in at least three sectors within the ETR taxonomy. Remember ETR taxonomy has 12, 15 different segments. So the names above or below the gray dotted line are those companies where the net score has increased or decreased meaningfully. So to the earlier chart, it's all relative, right? Look at Oracle. While having lower net scores has also shown a more meaningful improvement in net score than some of the others, as have SAP and Teradata. Now what's impressive to me here is how AWS, Microsoft, and Google are actually holding that dotted line that gray line pretty well despite their size and the other ironically interesting two data points here are Broadcom and Nutanix. Now Broadcom, of course, as we've reported and dug into, is buying VMware and, and of, of course most customers are concerned about getting hit with higher prices. Once Broadcom takes over. Well Nutanix despite its change in net scores, in a good position potentially to capture some of that VMware business. Just yesterday, I talked to a customer who told me he migrated his entire portfolio off VMware using Nutanix AHV, the Acropolis hypervisor. And that was in an effort to avoid the VTEX specifically. Now this was a smaller customer granted and it's not representative of what I feel is Broadcom's ICP the ideal customer profile, but look, Nutanix should benefit from the Broadcom acquisition. If it can position itself to pick up the business that Broadcom really doesn't want. That kind of bottom of the pyramid. One person's trash is another's treasure as they say, okay. And here's that same chart for companies >> that participate in less than three segments. So, two or one of the segments in the ETR taxonomy. Only three names are seeing positive movement year over year in net score. SUSE under the leadership of amazing CEO, Melissa Di Donato. She's making moves. The company went public last year and acquired rancher labs in 2020. Look, we know that red hat is the big dog in Kubernetes but since the IBM acquisition people have looked to SUSE as a possible alternative and it's showing up in the numbers. It's a nice business. It's going to do more than 600 million this year in revenue, SUSE that is. It's got solid double digit growth in kind of the low teens. It's profitability is under pressure but they're definitely a player that is found a niche and is worth watching. The SolarWinds, What can I say there? I mean, maybe it's a dead cat bounce coming off the major breach that we saw a couple years ago. Some of its customers maybe just can't move off the platform. Constant contact we really don't follow and don't really, you know, focus on them. So, not much to say there. Now look at all the high priced earning stocks or infinite PE stocks that have no E and divide by zero or a negative number and boom, you have infinite PE and look at how their net scores have dropped. We've reported extensively on snowflake. They're still number one as we showed you earlier, net score, but big moves off their highs. Okta, Datadog, Zscaler, SentinelOne Dynatrace, big downward moves, and you can see the rest. So this chart really speaks to the change in expectations from the COVID bubble. Despite the fact that many of these companies CFOs would tell you that the pandemic wasn't necessarily a tailwind for them, but it certainly seemed to be the case when you look back in some of the ETR data. But a big question in the community is what's going to happen to these tech stocks, these tech companies in the market? We reached out to both Eric Bradley of ETR who used to be a technical analyst on Wall Street, and the long time trader and breaking analysis contributor, Chip Symington to get a read on what they thought. First, you know the market >> first point of the market has been off 11 out of the past 12 weeks. And bare market rallies like what we're seeing today and yesterday, they happen from time to time and it was kind of expected. Chair Powell's testimony was broadly viewed as a positive by the street because higher interest rates appear to be pushing commodity prices down. And a weaker consumer sentiment may point to a less onerous inflation outlook. That's good for the market. Chip Symington pointed out to breaking analysis a while ago that the NASDAQ has been on a trend line for the past six months where its highs are lower and the lows are lower and that's a bad sign. And we're bumping up against that trend line here. Meaning if it breaks through that trend it could be a buying signal. As he feels that tech stocks are oversold. He pointed to a recent bounce in semiconductors and cited the Qualcomm example. Here's a company trading at 12 times forward earnings with a sustained 14% growth rate over the next couple of years. And their cash flow is able to support their 2.4, 2% annual dividend. So overall Symington feels this rally was absolutely expected. He's cautious because we're still in a bear market but he's beginning to, to turn bullish. And Eric Bradley added that He feels the market is building a base here and he doesn't expect a 1970s or early 1980s year long sideways move because of all the money that's still in the system. You know, but it could bounce around for several months And remember with higher interest rates there are going to be more options other than equities which for many years has not been the case. Obviously inflation and recession. They are like two looming towers that we're all watching closely and will ultimately determine if, when, and how this market turns around. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to my colleagues, Stephanie Chan, who helps research breaking analysis topics sometimes, and Alex Myerson who is on production in the podcast. Kristin Martin and Cheryl Knight they help get the word out and do all of our newsletters. And Rob Hof is our Editor in Chief over at siliconangle.com and does some wonderful editing for breaking analysis. Thank you. Remember, all these episodes are available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search breaking analysis podcasts. I publish each week on wikibon.com and Siliconangle.com. And of course you can reach me by email at david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me at DVellante comment on my LinkedIn post and please do check out etr.ai for the best survey data in the enterprise tech business. This is Dave Vellante for the CUBE insights powered by ETR. Stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (soft music)

from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante snowflake they love the stock at 400 and hated at 165 that's the nature of the business i guess especially in this crazy cycle over the last two years of lockdowns free money exploding demand and now rising inflation and rates but with the fed providing some clarity on its actions the time has come to really dig into the fundamentals of companies and there's no tech company that's more fun to analyze than snowflake hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we look at the action of snowflake stock since its ipo why it's behaved the way it has how some sharp traders are looking at the stock and most importantly what customer demand looks like the stock has really provided some great theater since its ipo i know people who got in at 120 before the open and i know lots of people who kind of held their noses and bought the stock on day one at over 300 a day when it closed at around 240 that first day of trading snowflake hit 164 this week it's all-time low as a public company as my college roommate chip simonton a long time trader told me when great companies trade at all times time lows because of panic it's worth taking a shot he did now of course the stock could go lower there's geopolitical risk and the stock with a 64 billion market cap is expensive for a company that's forecast to do around 2 billion in product revenue this year and remember i don't recommend stocks you shouldn't take my advice and my comments you got to do your own research but i have lots of data and i have opinions and i'm willing to share that with you stocks like snowflake crowdstrike z-scaler octa and companies like this are highly volatile when markets are moving up they're going to move up faster than the mean when they're declining they're going to drop more severely and that's clearly what's happened to snowflake so with a company like this you when you see panic selling you'll also see panic buying sometimes like we we've seen with this name it went from 220 to 320 in a very short period earlier snowflake put in a short-term bottom this week and many traders feel the issue was oversold so they bought okay but not everyone felt this way and you can see this in the headlines snowflake hits low but cloud stocks rise and we're going to come back to that is it a buy don't buy the dip buy the dip and what snowflake investors can learn from microsoft and from the street.com snow stock is sliding on the back of ill-conceived guidance and to that i would say that conservative guidance these days is anything but ill-conceived now let's unpack all this a bit and to do so i reached out to ivana delevska who has been on this program before she's with spear invest a female-led etf that goes deep into understanding supply chains she came on breaking analysis and laid out her thesis to buy the dip on snowflake this is a while ago she told me currently spear still likes snowflake and has doubled its position let me share her analysis she called out two drivers for the downside interest rates you know rising of course in snowflakes guidance which my own publication called weak in that previous chart that i just showed you so let's dig into that a bit snowflake guided for product revenues of 67 year on year which was below buy side expectations but i believe within sell side consensus regardless the guide was nuanced and driven by snowflake's decision to pass along price efficiencies to customers from optimizing processor price performance predominantly from aws's graviton too this is going to hit snowflakes revenue a net of about a hundred million dollars this year but the timing's not precise because it's going to hit 165 million but they're going to make up 65 million in increased demand frank slootman on the earnings call made this very clear he said quote this is not philanthropy this stimulates demand classic slootman the point is spear and other bulls believe that this will result in a gain for snowflake over the medium term and we would agree price goes down roi gets better you throw more projects at snowflakes customers going to buy more snowflake and when that happens and it gives the company an advantage as they continue to build their moat it's a longer term bet on cloud and data which are good bets now some of this could also be competitive pressures there have been you know studies that are out there from competitors attacking snowflakes pricing and price performance and they make comparisons oracle's been pretty aggressive as have others but so far the company's customers continue to consume now at a very fast rate now on on this front what can we learn from microsoft that applies to snowflake that's the headline here from benzinga so the article quoted a wealth manager named josh brown talking about what happened to microsoft after the dot-com bubble burst and how they quadrupled earnings over the next decade and the stock went sideways suggesting the same thing could happen to snowflake now i'd like to make a couple of comments here first at the time microsoft was a 23 billion dollar company and it had a monopoly and was already highly profitable steve ballmer became the ceo of microsoft right after the dot-com bubble burst and he hugged onto windows for dear life and lived off of microsoft's pc software monopoly microsoft became an extremely profitable and remarkably uninteresting caretaker of a pc in on-prem software estate during balmer's tenure so i just don't see the comparison as relevant snowflake you know they're going to make struggle for other reasons but that one didn't really resonate with me what's interesting is this chart it poses the question do cloud and data markets behave differently it's a chart that shows aws growth rates over time and superimposes the revenue in the red in q1 2018 aws generated 5.4 billion dollars in revenue and that was growing at the time at nearly a 50 rate now that rate as you can see decelerated quite significantly as aws grew to a 50 billion dollar run rate company that down below where you see it bottoms now it makes sense right law of large numbers you can't keep growing that fast when you get that big well oops look what happened in 2021 aws's growth rate bottoms in the high 20s and then rockets back up to 40 this past quarter as aws surpasses a 70 billion dollar run rate so you have to ask is cloud different is data different is cloud data different or data cloud different let's put it in the snowflake parlance can cloud because of its consumption model and the speed of innovation and ecosystem depth and breadth enable snowflake to exhibit lots of variability in its growth rates versus a say progressive and somewhat linear decline as the company grows revenue which is what you would expect historically and part of the answer relates to its market size here's a chart we've shared before with some additions it's our version of snowflake's total available market they're tam which snowflake's version that that blue data cloud thing superimposed on the right it shows the various layers of market opportunity that we came up with that that snowflake and others we think have in front of them emerging from the disruption of legacy data lakes and data warehouses to what snowflake refers to as its data cloud we think about the data mesh concept and decentralized data architectures with domain ownership and data product and service builders as consistent with snowflake's data cloud vision where snowflake data stores are nodes they're just simply discoverable nodes on the mesh you could have you know data bricks data lakes you know s3 buckets on that mesh it doesn't matter they can be discovered they can be shared and of course they're governed in a federated model now in snowflake's model it's all inside the snowflake data cloud that's fine then you'll go to the out years it gets a little fuzzy you know from edge locations and ai inference it becomes massive and decision making occurs in real time where machines and machine data take over the world instead of you know clicks and keystrokes sounds out there but it's real and how exactly snowflake plays there at this point is unclear but one thing's for sure there'll be a lot of data and it's going to find its way into snowflake you know snowflake's not a real-time engine it's an analytical system it's moving into the realm of data science and you know we've talked about the need for you know semantic layer between those those two worlds of analytics and data science but expanding the scope further out we think that snowflake is a big role to play in this future and the future is massive okay check you got the big tam now as someone that looks at companies through a fundamentals prism you've got to look obviously at the markets in the tan which we just did but you also want to understand customers and it's not hard to find snowflake customers capital one disney micron alliance sainsbury sonos and hundreds of other companies i've talked to snowflake customers who have also been customers of oracle teradata ibm neteza vertica serious database practitioners and they tell me it's consistent soulflake is different they say it's simpler it's more agile it's less complicated to secure and it's disruptive to their traditional ways of doing data management now of course there are naysayers i've spoken to a number of analysts that feel snowflake is deficient in areas like workload management and course complex joins and it's too specialized in a world where we're seeing the convergence of analytics and transactional workloads our own david floyer believes that what oracle is doing with mysql heatwave is radically disruptive to many of the database architectures and blows away anything out there and he believes that snowflake and the likes of aws are going to have to respond now this the other criticism here is that snowflake is not architected for real-time inference where a lot of that edge activity is is going to happen it's a multi-hundred billion dollar market and so look snowflake has a ton of competition that's the other thing all the major cloud players have very capable and competitive database platforms even though they all partner with snowflake except oracle of course but companies like databricks and have garnered tons of vc other vc funded companies have raised billions of dollars to do this kind of elastic consumption based separate compute from storage stuff so you have to always keep an open mind and be aware of potential blind spots for these companies but to the criticisms i would say look snowflake they got there first and watch their ecosystem it's a real key to its continued success snowflake's not going to go it alone and it's going to use its ecosystem partners to expand its reach and accelerate the network effects and fill those gaps and it will acquire its stock is valuable so it should be doing that just as it did with streamlit a zero revenue company that it bought for 800 million dollars in stock and cash just recently streamlit is an open source python library that gets snowflake further deeper into that data science space that data brick space and look watch what snowflake is doing with snowpark it's an api library for processing data and building data intensive applications we've talked about snowflake essentially being becoming the super cloud and building this sort of path-like layer across clouds rather than trying to do it all themselves it seems snowflake is really staring at the api economy and building its ecosystem to plug those holes so let's come back to the customers here's a chart that shows snowflakes customer spending momentum or net score on the the top line that's the vertical axis and pervasiveness in the data or market share and that bottom brown line snowflake has unprecedented net scores and held them up for many many quarters as you can see here going back you know a couple years all leading to its expanded market penetration and measured as pervasiveness of so-called market share within the etr survey it's not like idc market share it's pervasiveness in the data set now i'll say this i don't see how this is sustainable i've been waiting for this to moderate i wouldn't be surprised to see snowflake come back to earth a little bit i think they'll clearly still be highly elevated based on the data that i've seen but but i could see in in one or more of the etr surveys this year this starting to moderate as they get they get big it's just it has to happen um but i would again expect them to have a high spending velocity score but i think we're going to see snowflake you know maybe porpoise a bit here meaning you know it moderates it comes back up it's just really hard to sustain this piece of momentum and higher train retain and scale without absorbing some some friction and some head woods that's going to slow you down but back to the aws growth example it's entirely possible that we could see a similar dynamic with snowflake that you saw with aws and you kind of see it with salesforce and servicenow very successful large entrenched entrenched companies and it's very possible that snowflake could pull back moderate and then accelerate that growth even though people are concerned about the moderated guidance of 80 percent growth yeah that's that's the new definition of tepid i guess i look i like to look at other some other metrics the one that really called you know my my my attention was the remaining performance obligations this last quarter rpo snowflakes is up to something like 2.6 billion and that is a forward-looking indicator of of future revenues so i want to i'd like to see that growing and it's growing at a fast pace so you're going to see some ups and downs with snowflake i have no doubt but i think things are still looking pretty solid for the company growth companies like snowflake and octa and z scalar those other ones that i mentioned earlier have probably been repriced and refactored by investors while there's always going to be market and of course geopolitical risk especially in these times fundamentals matter you've got huge market well capitalized you got a leadership position great products and strong customer adoption you also have a great team team is something else that we look for we haven't touched on that but i'll leave you with this thought everyone knows about frank slootman mike scarpelli and what they've accomplished in their years of working together that's why the stock you know in ipo was was so overvalued they had seen these guys do it before slootman just documented in all this in his book amp it up which gives great insight into the history of of that though you know that pair and and the teams that they've built the companies that they've built how he thinks about building companies and markets and and how you know total available markets super important but the whole philosophy and culture that that he's building in his management style but you got to wonder right how long is this guy going to keep going what keeps him motivated you know i asked him that one time here's what he said why i mean are you in this for the sport what's the story here uh actually that that's not a bad way of characterizing it i think i am in it uh you know for the sport uh you know the only way to become the best version of yourself is to be uh to be under the gun and uh you know every single day and that's that's certainly uh what we are it sort of has its own rewards building great products building great companies uh you know regardless of you know uh what the spoils may be uh it has its own rewards and i i it's hard for people like us to get off the field and uh you know hang it up so here we are so there you have it he's in it for the sport how great is that he loves building companies and that my opinion that's how frank slootman thinks about success it's not about money money's the byproduct of success as earl nightingale would say success is the progressive realization of a worthy ideal i love that quote building great companies building products that change the world changing people's lives with data and insights creating jobs creating life-altering wealth opportunities not for himself but for thousands of employees and partners i'd say that's a pretty worthy ideal and i hope frank slootman sticks with it for a while okay that's it for today thanks to stephanie chan for the background research she does for breaking analysis alex meyerson on production kristen martin and cheryl knight on social with rob hoff on siliconangle and thanks to ivana delevska of spear invest and my friend chip symington for the angles from the money side of things remember all these episodes are available as podcasts just search breaking analysis podcast i publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com and don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey data you can reach me at devolante or david.velante siliconangle.com and this is dave vellante for cube insights powered by etrbsafe stay well and we'll see you next time [Music] you