from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data-driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante you know we've often said that the next 10 years in cloud computing won't be like the last ten cloud has firmly planted its footprint on the other side of the chasm with the momentum of the entire multi-trillion dollar tech business behind it both sellers and buyers are leaning in by adopting cloud technologies and many are building their own value layers on top of cloud in the coming years we expect innovation will continue to coalesce around the three big u.s clouds plus alibaba in apac with the ecosystem building value on top of the hardware saw tooling provided by the hyperscalers now importantly we don't see this as a race to the bottom rather our expectation is that the large public cloud players will continue to take cost out of their platforms through innovation automation and integration while other cloud providers and the ecosystem including traditional companies that buy it mine opportunities in their respective markets as matt baker of dell is fond of saying this is not a zero sum game welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll update you on our latest projections in the cloud market we'll share some new etr survey data with some surprising nuggets and drill into this the important cloud database landscape first we want to take a look at what people are talking about in cloud and what's been in the recent news with the exception of alibaba all the large cloud players have reported earnings google continues to focus on growth at the expense of its profitability google reported that it's cloud business which includes applications like google workspace grew 45 percent to five and a half billion dollars but it had an operating loss of 890 billion now since thomas curion joined google to run its cloud business google has increased head count in its cloud business from 25 000 25 000 people now it's up to 40 000 in an effort to catch up to the two leaders but playing catch up is expensive now to put this into perspective let's go back to aws's revenue in q1 2018 when the company did 5.4 billion so almost exactly the same size as google's current total cloud business and aws is growing faster at the time at 49 don't forget google includes in its cloud numbers a big chunk of high margin software aws at the time had an operating profit of 1.4 billion that quarter around 26 of its revenues so it was a highly profitable business about as profitable as cisco's overall business which again is a great business this is what happens when you're number three and didn't get your head out of your ads fast enough now in fairness google still gets high marks on the quality of its technology according to corey quinn of the duck bill group amazon and google cloud are what he called neck and neck with regard to reliability with microsoft azure trailing because of significant disruptions in the past these comments were made last week in a bloomberg article despite some recent high-profile outages on aws not surprisingly a microsoft spokesperson said that the company's cloud offers industry-leading reliability and that gives customers payment credits after some outages thank you turning to microsoft and cloud news microsoft's overall cloud business surpassed 22 billion in the december quarter up 32 percent year on year like google microsoft includes application software and sas offerings in its cloud numbers and gives little nuggets of guidance on its azure infrastructure as a service business by the way we estimate that azure comprises about 45 percent of microsoft's overall cloud business which we think hit a 40 billion run rate last quarter microsoft guided in its earning call that recent declines in the azure growth rates will reverse in q1 and that implies sequential growth for azure and finally it was announced that the ftc not the doj will review microsoft's announced 75 billion acquisition of activision blizzard it appears ftc chair lena khan wants to take this one on herself she of course has been very outspoken about the power of big tech companies and in recent a recent cnbc interview suggested that the u.s government's actions were a meaningful contributor back then to curbing microsoft's power in the 90s i personally found that dubious just ask netscape wordperfect novell lotus and spc the maker of harvard presentation graphics how effective the government was in curbing microsoft power generally my take is that the u s government has had a dismal record regulating tech companies most notably ibm and microsoft and it was market forces company hubris complacency and self-inflicted wounds not government intervention these were far more effective than the government now of course if companies are breaking the law they should be punished but the u.s government hasn't been very productive in its actions and the unintended consequences of regulation could be detrimental to the u.s competitiveness in the race with china but i digress lastly in the news amazon announced earnings thursday and the company's value increased by 191 billion dollars on friday that's a record valuation gain for u.s stocks aws amazon's profit engine grew 40 percent year on year for the quarter it closed the year at 62 billion dollars in revenue and at a 71 billion dollar revenue run rate aws is now larger than ibm which without kindrel is at a 67 billion dollar run rate just for context ibm's revenue in 2011 was 107 billion dollars now there's a conversation going on in the media and social that in order to continue this growth and compete with microsoft that aws has to get into the sas business and offer applications we don't think that's the right strategy for amp from for amazon in the near future rather we see them enabling developers to compete in that business finally amazon disclosed that 48 of its top 50 customers are using graviton 2 instances why is this important because aws is well ahead of the competition in custom silicon chips is and is on a price performance curve that is far better than alternatives especially those based on x86 this is one of the reasons why we think this business is not a race to the bottom aws is being followed by google microsoft and alibaba in terms of developing custom silicon and will continue to drive down their internal cost structures and deliver price performance equal to or better than the historical moore's law curves so that's the recent news for the big u.s cloud providers let's now take a look at how the year ended for the big four hyperscalers and look ahead to next year here's a table we've shown this view before it shows the revenue estimates for worldwide is and paths generated by aws microsoft alibaba and google now remember amazon and alibaba they share clean eye ass figures whereas microsoft and alphabet only give us these nuggets that we have to interpret and we correlate those tidbits with other data that we gather we're one of the few outlets that actually attempts to make these apples to apples comparisons there's a company called synergy research there's another firm that does this but i really can't map to their numbers their gcp figures look far too high and azure appears somewhat overestimated and they do include other stuff like hosted private cloud services but it's another data point that you can use okay back to the table we've slightly adjusted our gcp figures down based on interpreting some of alphabet's statements and other survey data only alibaba has yet to announce earnings so we'll stick to a 2021 market size of about 120 billion dollars that's a 41 growth rate relative to 2020 and we expect that figure to increase by 38 percent to 166 billion in 2022 now we'll discuss this a bit later but these four companies have created an opportunity for the ecosystem to build what we're calling super clouds on top of this infrastructure and we're seeing it happen it was increasingly obvious at aws re invent last year and we feel it will pick up momentum in the coming months and years a little bit more on that later now here's a graphical view of the quarterly revenue shares for these four companies notice that aws has reversed its share erosion and is trending up slightly aws has accelerated its growth rate four quarters in a row now it accounted for 52 percent of the big four hyperscaler revenue last year and that figure was nearly 54 in the fourth quarter azure finished the year with 32 percent of the hyper scale revenue in 2021 which dropped to 30 percent in q4 and you can see gcp and alibaba they're neck and neck fighting for the bronze medal by the way in our recent 2022 predictions post we said google cloud platform would surpass alibaba this year but given the recent trimming of our numbers google's got some work to do for that prediction to be correct okay just to put a bow on the wikibon market data let's look at the quarterly growth rates and you'll see the compression trends there this data tracks quarterly revenue growth rates back to 20 q1 2019 and you can see the steady downward trajectory and the reversal that aws experienced in q1 of last year now remember microsoft guided for sequential growth and azure so that orange line should trend back up and given gcp's much smaller and big go to market investments that we talked about we'd like to see an acceleration there as well the thing about aws is just remarkable that it's able to accelerate growth at a 71 billion run rate business and alibaba you know is a bit more opaque and likely still reeling from the crackdown of the chinese government we're admittedly not as close to the china market but we'll continue to watch from afar as that steep decline in growth rate is somewhat of a concern okay let's get into the survey data from etr and to do so we're going to take some time series views on some of the select cloud platforms that are showing spending momentum in the etr data set you know etr uses a metric we talked about this a lot called net score to measure that spending velocity of products and services netscore basically asks customers are you spending more less or the same on a platform and a vendor and then it subtracts the lesses from the moors and that yields a net score this chart shows net score for five cloud platforms going back to january 2020. note in the table that the table we've inserted inside that chart shows the net score and shared n the latter metric indicates the number of mentions in the data set and all the platforms we've listed here show strong presence in the survey that red dotted line at 40 percent that indicates spending is at an elevated level and you can see azure and aws and vmware cloud on aws as well as gcp are all nicely elevated and bounding off their october figures indicating continued cloud momentum overall but the big surprise in these figures is the steady climb and the steep bounce up from oracle which came in just under the 40 mark now one quarter is not necessarily a trend but going back to january 2020 the oracle peaks keep getting higher and higher so we definitely want to keep watching this now here's a look at some of the other cloud platforms in the etr survey the chart here shows the same time series and we've now brought in some of the big hybrid players notably vmware cloud which is vcf and other on-prem solutions red hat openstack which as we've reported in the past is still popular in telcos who want to build their own cloud we're also starting to see hpe with green lake and dell with apex show up more and ibm which years ago acquired soft layer which was really essentially a bare metal hosting company and over the years ibm cobbled together its own public cloud ibm is now racing after hybrid cloud using red hat openshift as the linchpin to that strategy now what this data tells us first of all these platforms they don't have the same presence in the data set as do the previous players vmware is the one possible exception but other than vmware these players don't have the spending velocity shown in the previous chart and most are below the red line hpe and dell are interesting and notable in that they're transitioning their early private cloud businesses to dell gr sorry hpe green lake and dell apex respectively and finally after years of kind of staring at their respective navels in in cloud and milking their legacy on-prem models they're finally building out cloud-like infrastructure for their customers they're leaning into cloud and marketing it in a more sensible and attractive fashion for customers so we would expect these figures are going to bounce around for a little while for those two as they settle into a groove and we'll watch that closely now ibm is in the process of a complete do-over arvin krishna inherited three generations of leadership with a professional services mindset now in the post gerschner gerstner era both sam palmisano and ginny rometty held on far too long to ibm's service heritage and protected the past from the future they missed the cloud opportunity and they forced the acquisition of red hat to position the company for the hybrid cloud remedy tried to shrink to grow but never got there krishna is moving faster and with the kindred spin is promising mid-single-digit growth which would be a welcome change ibm is a lot of work to do and we would expect its net score figures as well to bounce around as customers transition to the future all right let's take a look at all these different players in context these are all the clouds that we just talked about in a two-dimensional view the vertical axis is net score or spending momentum and the horizontal axis is market share or presence or pervasiveness in the data set a couple of call-outs that we'd like to make here first the data confirms what we've been saying what everybody's been saying aws and microsoft stand alone with a huge presence many tens of billions of dollars in revenue yet they are both well above the 40 line and show spending momentum and they're well ahead of gcp on both dimensions second vmware while much smaller is showing legitimate momentum which correlates to its public statements alibaba the alibaba in this survey really doesn't have enough sample to make hardcore conclusions um you can see hpe and dell and ibm you know similarly they got a little bit more presence in the data set but they clearly have some work to do what you're seeing there is their transitioning their legacy install bases oracle's the big surprise look what oracle was in the january survey and how they've shot up recently now we'll see if this this holds up let's posit some possibilities as to why it really starts with the fact that oracle is the king of mission critical apps now if you haven't seen video on twitter you have to check it out it's it's hilarious we're not going to run the video here but the link will be in our post but i'll give you the short version some really creative person they overlaid a data migration narrative on top of this one tooth guy who speaks in spanish gibberish but the setup is he's a pm he's a he's a a project manager at a bank and aws came into the bank this of course all hypothetical and said we can move all your apps to the cloud in 12 months and the guy says but wait we're running mission critical apps on exadata and aws says there's nothing special about exadata and he starts howling and slapping his knee and laughing and giggling and talking about the 23 year old senior engineer who says we're going to do this with microservices and he could tell he was he was 23 because he was wearing expensive sneakers and what a nightmare they encountered migrating their environment very very very funny video and anyone who's ever gone through a major migration of mission critical systems this is gonna hit home it's funny not funny the point is it's really painful to move off of oracle and oracle for all its haters and its faults is really the best environment for mission critical systems and customers know it so what's happening is oracle's building out the best cloud for oracle database and it has a lot of really profitable customers running on-prem that the company is migrating to oracle cloud infrastructure oci it's a safer bet than ripping it and putting it into somebody else's cloud that doesn't have all the specialized hardware and oracle knowledge because you can get the same integrated exadata hardware and software to run your database in the oracle cloud it's frankly an easier and much more logical migration path for a lot of customers and that's possibly what's happening here not to mention oracle jacks up the license price nearly doubles the license price if you run on other clouds so not only is oracle investing to optimize its cloud infrastructure it spends money on r d we've always talked about that really focused on mission critical applications but it's making it more cost effective by penalizing customers that run oracle elsewhere so this possibly explains why when the gartner magic quadrant for cloud databases comes out it's got oracle so well positioned you can see it there for yourself oracle's position is right there with aws and microsoft and ahead of google on the right-hand side is gartner's critical capabilities ratings for dbms and oracle leads in virtually all of the categories gartner track this is for operational dvms so it's kind of a narrow view it's like the red stack sweet spot now this graph it shows traditional transactions but gartner has oracle ahead of all vendors in stream processing operational intelligence real-time augmented transactions now you know gartner they're like old name framers and i say that lovingly so maybe they're a bit biased and they might be missing some of the emerging opportunities that for example like snowflake is pioneering but it's hard to deny that oracle for its business is making the right moves in cloud by optimizing for the red stack there's little question in our view when it comes to mission critical we think gartner's analysis is correct however there's this other really exciting landscape emerging in cloud data and we don't want it to be a blind spot snowflake calls it the data cloud jamactagani calls it data mesh others are using the term data fabric databricks calls it data lake house so so does oracle by the way and look the terminology is going to evolve and most of the action action that's happening is in the cloud quite frankly and this chart shows a select group of database and data warehouse companies and we've filtered the data for aws azure and gcp customers accounts so how are these accounts or companies that were showing how these vendors were showing doing in aws azure and gcp accounts and to make the cut you had to have a minimum of 50 mentions in the etr survey so unfortunately data bricks didn't make it just not enough presence in the data set quite quite yet but just to give you a sense snowflake is represented in this cut with 131 accounts aws 240 google 108 microsoft 407 huge [ __ ] 117 cloudera 52 just made the cut ibm 92 and oracle 208. again these are shared accounts filtered by customers running aws azure or gcp the chart shows a net score lime green is new ads forest green is spending more gray is flat spending the pink is spending less and the bright red is defection again you subtract the red from the green and you get net score and you can see that snowflake as we reported last week is tops in the data set with a net score in the 80s and virtually no red and even by the way single digit flat spend aws google and microsoft are all prominent in the data set as is [ __ ] and snowflake as i just mentioned and they're all elevated over the 40 mark cloudera yeah what can we say once they were a high flyer they're really not in the news anymore with anything compelling other than they just you know took the company private so maybe they can re-emerge at some point with a stronger story i hope so because as you can see they actually have some new additions and spending momentum in the green just a lot of customers holding steady and a bit too much red but they're in the positive territory at least with uh plus 17 percent unlike ibm and oracle and this is the flip side of the coin ibm they're knee-deep really chest deep in the middle of a major transformation we've said before arvind krishna's strategy and vision is at least achievable prune the portfolio i.e spin out kindrel sell watson health hold serve with the mainframe and deal with those product cycles shift the mix to software and use red hat to win the day in hybrid red hat is working for ibm's growing well into the double digits unfortunately it's not showing up in this chart with little database momentum in aws azure and gcp accounts zero new ads not enough acceleration and spending a big gray middle in nearly a quarter of the base in the red ibm's data and ai business only grew three percent this last quarter and the word database wasn't even mentioned once on ibm's earnings call this has to be a concern as you can see how important database is to aws microsoft google and the momentum it's giving companies like snowflake and [ __ ] and others which brings us to oracle with a net score of minus 12. so how do you square the momentum in oracle cloud spending and the strong ratings and databases from gartner with this picture good question and i would say the following first look at the profile people aren't adding oracle new a large portion of the base 25 is reducing spend by 6 or worse and there's a decent percentage of the base migrating off oracle with a big fat middle that's flat and this accounts for the poor net score overall but what etr doesn't track is how much is being spent rather it's an account based model and oracle is heavily weighted toward big spenders running mission critical applications and databases oracle's non-gaap operating margins are comparable to ibm's gross margins on a percentage basis so a very profitable company with a big license and maintenance in stall basin oracle has focused its r d investments into cloud erp database automation they've got vertical sas and they've got this integrated hardware and software story and this drives differentiation for the company but as you can see in this chart it has a legacy install base that is constantly trying to minimize its license costs okay here's a little bit of different view on the same data we expand the picture with the two dimensions of net score on the y-axis and market share or pervasiveness on the horizontal axis and the table insert is how the data gets plotted y and x respectively not much to add here other than to say the picture continues to look strong for those companies above the 40 line that are focused and their focus and have figured out a clear cloud strategy and aren't necessarily dealing with a big install base the exception of course is is microsoft and the ones below the line definitely have parts of their portfolio which have solid momentum but they're fighting the inertia of a large install base that moves very slowly again microsoft had the advantage of really azure and migrating those customers very quickly okay so let's wrap it up starting with the big three cloud players aws is accelerating and innovating great example is custom silicon with nitro and graviton and other chips that will help the company address concerns related to the race to the bottom it's not a race to zero aws we believe will let its developers go after the sas business and for the most part aws will offer solutions that address large vertical markets think call centers the edge remains a wild card for aws and all the cloud players really aws believes that in the fullness of time all workloads will run in the public cloud now it's hard for us to imagine the tesla autonomous vehicles running in the public cloud but maybe aws will redefine what it means by its cloud microsoft well they're everywhere and they're expanding further now into gaming and the metaverse when he became ceo in 2014 many people said that satya should ditch xbox just as an aside the joke among many oracle employees at the time was that safra katz would buy her kids and her nieces and her nephews and her kids friends everybody xbox game consoles for the holidays because microsoft lost money for everyone that they shipped well nadella has stuck with it and he sees an opportunity to expand through online gaming communities one of his first deals as ceo was minecraft now the acquisition of activision will make microsoft the world's number three gaming company by revenue behind only 10 cent and sony all this will be powered by azure and drive more compute storage ai and tooling now google for its part is battling to stay relevant in the conversation luckily it can afford the massive losses it endures in cloud because the company's advertising business is so profitable don't expect as many have speculated that google is going to bail on cloud that would be a huge mistake as the market is more than large enough for three players which brings us to the rest of the pack cloud ecosystems generally and aws specifically are exploding the idea of super cloud that is a layer of value that spans multiple clouds hides the underlying complexity and brings new value that the cloud players aren't delivering that's starting to bubble to the top and legacy players are staying close to their customers and fighting to keep them spending and it's working dell hpe cisco and smaller predominantly on-plan prem players like pure storage they continue to do pretty well they're just not as sexy as the big cloud players the real interesting activity it's really happening in the ecosystem of companies and firms within industries that are transforming to create their own digital businesses virtually all of them are running a portion of their offerings on the public cloud but often connecting to on-premises workloads and data think goldman sachs making that work and creating a great experience across all environments is a big opportunity and we're seeing it form right before our eyes don't miss it okay that's it for now thanks to my colleague stephanie chan who helped research this week's topics remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen just search breaking analysis podcast check out etr's website at etr dot ai and also we publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can get in touch with me email me at david.velante siliconangle.com you can dm me at divalante or comment on my linkedin post this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week stay safe be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from the cube in ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> On Friday, December 10th, Oracle announced a strong earnings beat and raise, on the strength of its licensed business, and slightly better than expected cloud performance. The stock was up sharply on the day and closed up nearly 16% surpassing 280 billion in market value. Oracle's success is due largely to its execution, of a highly differentiated strategy, that has really evolved over the past decade or more, deeply integrating its hardware and software, heavily investing in next generation cloud, creating a homogeneous experience across its application portfolio, and becoming the number one platform. Number one for the world's most mission critical applications. Now, while investors piled into the stock, skeptics will point to the beat being weighed toward licensed revenue and likely keep one finger on the sell button until they're convinced Oracle's cloud momentum, is more consistent and predictable. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibond CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we'll review Oracle's most recent quarter, and pull in some ETR survey data, to frame the company's cloud business, the momentum of fusion ERP, where the company is winning and some gaps and opportunities that we see. The numbers this quarter was strong, particularly top line growth. Here are a few highlights. Oracle's revenues that grew 6% year on year that's in constant currency, surpassed $10 billion for the quarter. Oracle's non-gap operating margins, were an impressive 47%. Safra Catz has always said cloud is more profitable business and it's really starting to show in the income statement. Operating cash and free cash flow were 10.3 billion and 7.1 billion respectively, for the past four quarters, and would have been higher, if not for charges largely related to litigation expenses tied to the hiring of Mark Hurd, which the company said would not repeat in the future quarters. And you can see in this chart how Oracle breaks down its business, which is kind of a mishmash of items they lump into so-called the cloud. The largest piece of the revenue pie is cloud services, and licensed support, which in reading 10Ks, you'll find statements like the following; licensed support revenues are our largest revenue stream and include product upgrades, and maintenance releases and patches, as well as technical support assistance and statements like the following; cloud and licensed revenue, include the sale of cloud services, cloud licenses and on-premises licenses, which typically represent perpetual software licenses purchased by customers, for use in both cloud, and on-premises, IT environments. And cloud license and on-prem license revenues primarily represent amounts earned from granting customers perpetual licenses to use our database middleware application in industry specific products, which our customers use for cloud-based, on-premise and other IT environments. So you tell me, "is that cloud? I don't know." In the early days of Oracle cloud, the company used to break out, IaaS, PaaS and SaaS revenue separately, but it changed its mind, which really makes it difficult to determine what's happening in true cloud. Look I have no problem including same same hardware software control plane, et cetera. The hybrid if it's on-prem in a true hybrid environment like exadata cloud@customer or AWS outposts. But you have to question what's really cloud in these numbers. And Larry in the earnings call mentioned that Salesforce licenses the Oracle database, to run its cloud and Oracle doesn't count that in its cloud number, rather it counts it in license revenue, but as you can see it varies that into a line item that starts with the word cloud. So I guess I would say that Oracle's reporting is maybe somewhat better than IBM's cloud reporting, which is the worst, but I can't really say what is and isn't cloud, in these numbers. Nonetheless, Oracle is getting it done for investors. Here's a chart comparing the five-year performance of Oracle to some of its legacy peers. We excluded Microsoft because it skews the numbers. Microsoft would really crush all these names including Oracle. But look at Oracle. It's wedged in between the performance of the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, it's up over 160% in that five-year timeframe, well ahead of SAP which is up 59% in that time, and way ahead of the dismal -22% performance of IBM. Well, it's a shame. The tech tide is rising, it's lifting all boats but, IBM has unfortunately not been able to capitalize. That's a story for another day. As a market watcher, you can't help but love Larry Ellison. I only met him once at an IDC conference in Paris where I got to interview Scott McNealy, CEO at the time. Ellison is great for analysts because, he's not afraid to talk about the competition. He'll brag, he'll insult, he'll explain, and he'll pitch his stories. Now on the earnings call last night, he went off. Educating the analyst community, on the upside in the fusion ERP business, making the case that because only a thousand of the 7,500 legacy on-prem ERP customers from Oracle, JD Edwards and PeopleSoft have moved Oracle's fusion cloud ERP, and he predicted that Oracle's cloud ERP business will surpass 20 billion in five years. In fact, he said it's going to bigger than that. He slammed the hybrid cloud washing. You can see one of the quotes here in this chart, that's going on when companies have customers running in the cloud and they claim whatever they have on premise hybrid, he called that ridiculous. I would agree. And then he took an opportunity to slam the hyperscale cloud vendors, citing a telco customer that said Oracle's cloud never goes down, and of course, he chose the same week, that AWS had a major outage. And so to these points, I would say that Oracle really was the first tech company, to announce a true hybrid cloud strategy, where you have an entirely identical experience on prem and in the cloud. This was announced with cloud@customer, two years, before AWS announced outposts. Now it probably took Oracle two years to get it working as advertised, but they were first. And to the second point, this is where Oracle differentiates itself. Oracle is number one for mission critical applications. No other vendor really can come close to Oracle in this regard. And I would say that Oracle is recent quarterly performance to a large extent, is due to this differentiated approach. Over the past 10 years, we've talked to hundreds literally. Hundreds and hundreds of Oracle customers. And while they may not always like the tactics and licensing policies of Oracle in their contracting, they will tell you, that business case for investing and staying with Oracle are very strong. And yes, a big part of that is lock-in but R&D investments innovation and a keen sense of market direction, are just as important to these customers. When you're chairman and founder is a technologist and also the CTO, and has the cash on hand to invest, the results are a highly competitive story. Now that's not to say Oracle is not without its challenges. That's not to say Oracle is without its challenges. Those who follow this program know that when it comes to ETR survey data, the story is not always pretty for Oracle. So let's take a look. This chart shows the breakdown of ETR is net score methodology, Net score measures spending momentum and works ETR. Each quarter asks customers, are you adding in the platform, That's the lime green. Increasing spend by 6% or more, that's the fourth green. Is you're spending E+ or minus 5%, that's the gray. You're spending climbing by 6%, that's the pinkish. Or are you leaving the platform, that's the bright red retiring. You subtract the reds from the greens, and that yields a net score, which an Oracle's overall case, is an uninspiring -4%. This is one of the anomalies in the ETR dataset. The net score doesn't track absolute actual levels, of spending the dollars. Remember, as the leader in mission critical workloads, Oracle commands a premium price. And so what happens here is the gray, is still spending a large amount of money, enough to offset the declines, and the greens are spending more than they would on other platforms because Oracle could command higher prices. And so that's how Oracle is able to grow its overall revenue by 6% for example, whereas the ETR methodology, doesn't capture that trend. So you have to dig into the data a bit deeper. We're not going to go too deep today, but let's take a look at how some of Oracle's businesses are performing relative to its competitors. This is a popular view that we like to share. It shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis, and market share. Market share is a measure of pervasiveness in the survey. Think of it as mentioned share. That's on the x-axis. And we've broken down and circled Oracle overall, Oracle on prem, which is declining on the vertical axis, Oracle fusion and NetSuite, which are much higher than Oracle overall. And in the case of fusion, much closer to that 40% magic red horizontal line, remember anything above that line, we consider to be elevated. Now we've added SAP overall which has, momentum comparable to fusion in the survey, using this methodology and IBM, which is in between fusion and Oracle, overall on the y-axis. Oracle as you can see on the horizontal axis, has a larger presence than any of these firms that are below the 40% line. Now, above that 40% line, you see companies with a smaller presence in the survey like Workday, salesforce.com, pretty big presence still, Google cloud also, and Snowflake. Smaller presence but much much higher net score than anybody else on this chart. And AWS and Microsoft overall with both a strong presence, and impressive momentum, especially for their respective sizes. Now that view that we just showed you excluded on purpose Oracle specific cloud offering. So let's now take a look at that relative to other cloud providers. This chart shows the same XY view, but it cuts the data by cloud only. And you can see Oracle while still well below the 40% line, has a net score of +15 compared to a -4 overall that we showed you earlier. So here we see two key points. One, despite the convoluted reporting that we talked about earlier, the ETR data supports that Oracle's cloud business has significantly more momentum than Oracle's overall average momentum. And two, while Oracle is smaller and doesn't have the growth of the hyperscale giants, it's cloud is performing noticeably better than IBM's within the ETR survey data. Now a key point Ellison emphasized on the earnings call, was the importance of ERP, and the work that Oracle has done in this space. It lives by this notion of a cloud first mentality. It builds stuff for the cloud and then, would bring it on-prem. And it's been attracting new customers according to the company. He said Oracle has 8,500 fusion ERP customers, and 28,000 NetSuite customers in the cloud. And unlike Microsoft, it hasn't migrated its on-prem install base, to the cloud yet. Meaning these are largely new customers. Now this chart isolates fusion and NetSuite, within a sector ETR calls GPP. The very giant, public and private companies. And this is a bellwether of spending in the ETR dataset. They've gone back and it correlates to performance. So think large public companies, the biggest ones, and also privates big privates like Mars or Cargo or Fidelity. The chart shows the net score breakdown over time for fusion and NetSuite going back to 2019. And you can see, a big uptick as shown in the blue line from the October, 2020 survey. So Oracle has done a good job building and now marketing its cloud ERP to these important customers. Now, the last thing we want to show you is Oracle's performance within industry sectors. On the earnings call, Oracle said that it had a very strong momentum for fusion in financial services and healthcare. And this chart shows the net score for fusion, across each industry sector that ETR tracks, for three survey points. October, 2020, that's the gray bars, July 21, that's the blue bars and October, 2021, the yellow bars. So look it confirms Oracles assertions across the board that they're seeing fusion perform very well including the two verticals that are called out healthcare and banking slash financial services. Now the big question is where does Oracle go from here? Oracle has had a history of looking like it's going to break out, only to hit some bumps in the road. And so investors are likely going to remain a bit cautious and take profits off the table along the way. But since the Barron's article came out, we reported on that earlier this year in February, declaring Oracle a cloud giant, the stock is up more than 50% of course. 16 of those points were from Friday's move upward, but still, Oracle's highly differentiated strategy of integrating hardware and software together, investing in a modern cloud platform and selectively offering services that cater to the hardcore mission critical buyer, these have served the company, its customers and investors as well. From a cloud standpoint, we'd like to see Oracle be more inclusive, and aggressively expand its marketplace and its ecosystem. This would provide both greater optionality for customers, and further establish Oracle as a major cloud player. Indeed, one of the hallmarks of both AWS and Azure is the momentum being created, by their respective ecosystems. As well, we'd like to see more clear confirmation that Oracle's performance is being driven by its investments in technology IE cloud, same same hybrid, and industry features these modern investments, versus a legacy licensed cycles. We are generally encouraged and are reminded, of years ago when Sam Palmisano, he was retiring and leaving as the CEO of IBM. At the time, HP under the direction ironically of Mark Hurd, was the now company, Palmisano was asked, "do you worry about HP?" And he said in fact, "I don't worry about HP. I worry about Oracle because Oracle invests in R&D." And that statement has proven present. What do you think? Has Oracle hit the next inflection point? Let me know. Don't forget these episodes they're all available as podcasts wherever you listen, all you do is search it. Breaking Analysis podcast, check out ETR website at etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconANGLE.com. You can get in touch with me on email David.vellante@siliconangle.com, you can DM me @dvellante on Twitter or, comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights. Powered by ETR. Have a great week everybody. Stay safe, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

from around the globe it's the cube with digital coverage of Red Hat summit 2020 brought to you by Red Hat last year in 2019 IBM made the biggest M&A move of the year with a 34 billion dollar acquisition of red hat it positioned IBM for the next decade after what was a very tumultuous tenure by CEO Ginni Rometty who had to shrink in order to grow unfortunately she didn't have enough time to do the grille part that has now gone toward Arvind Krishna the new CEO of IBM this is Dave Volante and I'm here with Stu minimun and this is our Red Hat keynote analysis is our 7th year doing the Red Hat summit and we're very excited to be here this is our first year doing Stu the Red Hat summit post IVM acquisition we've also got IBM think next week so what we want to do for you today is review what's going on at the Red Hat summits do you've been wall-to-wall with the interviews we're gonna break down the announcements IBM had just announced its quarter so we get some glimpse as to what's happening in the business and then we're gonna talk about going forward what the prognosis is for both IBM and Red Hat well and Dave of course our audience understands there's a reason why we're sitting farther apart than normal in our studio and you know why we're not in San Francisco where the show is supposed to be this year last year it's in Boston Red Hat summit goes coast-to-coast every year it's our seventh year doing the show first year doing it all digital of course our community is always online but you know real focus you know we're gonna talk about Dave you know you listen to the keynote speeches it's not the as we sit in our preview it's not the hoopla we had a preview with pork or mayor ahead of the event where they're not making big announcements most of the product pieces we're all out front it's open source anyway we know when it's coming for the most part some big partnership news of course strong customer momentum but a different tenor and the customers that Red Hat's lined up for me their interview all talking you know essential services like medical your your energy services your communication services so you know real focus I think Dave both IBM and right making sure that they are setting the appropriate tone in these challenging times yeah I mean everybody who we talked to says look at the employees and safety comes first once we get them working from home and we know that they're safe and healthy we want to get productive and so you've seen as we've reported that that shift to the work from home infrastructure and investments in that and so now it's all about how do we get closer to clients how do we stay close to clients and be there for them and I actually have you know business going forward you know the good news for IBM is it's got strong cash flow it's got a strong balance sheet despite you know the acquisition I mean it's just you know raise some more you know low low cost debt which you know gives them some dry powder going forward so I think IBM is gonna be fine it's just there's a lot of uncertainty but let's go back to your takeaways from the Red Hat Summit you've done you know dozens of interviews you got a good take on the company what are you top three takeaways - yeah so first of all Dave you know the focus everybody has is you know what does Red Hat do for the cloud story for IBM OpenShift especially is absolutely a highlight over 2,000 customers now from some really large ones you know last year I interviewed you know Delta you've got you know forward and Verizon up on stage for the keynote strong partnership with Microsoft talking about what they're doing so OpenShift has really strong momentum if you talk about you know where is the leadership in this whole kubernetes space Red Hat absolutely needs to be in that discussion not only are they you know other than Google the top contributor really there but from a customer standpoint the experience what they've built there but what I really liked from Red Hat standpoint is it's not just an infrastructure discussion it's not OPM's and containers and there's things we want to talk about about VMs and containers and even server lists from Red Hat standpoint but Red Hat at its core what it is it they started out as an operating system company rel Red Hat Enterprise Linux what's the tie between the OS and the application oh my god they've got decades of experience how do you build applications everything from how they're modernizing Java with a project called Korkis through how their really helping customers through this digital transformation I hear a similar message from Red Hat and their customers that I hear from Satya Nadella at Microsoft is we're building lots of applications we need to modernize what they're doing in Red Hat well positioned across the stack to not only be the platform for it but to help all of the pieces to help me modernize my applications build new ones modernize some of the existing ones so OpenShift a big piece of it you know automation has been a critical thing for a while we did the cube last year at ansible fest for the first time from Red Hat took that acquisition has helped accelerate that community in growth and they're really Dave pulling all the pieces together so it's what you hear from Stephanie shirasu ironically enough came over from IBM to run that business inside a Red Hat well you know now she's running it inside Red Hat and there's places that this product proliferate into the IBM portfolio next week when we get where it I didn't think I'm sure we'll hear a lot about IBM cloud packs and look at what's underneath IBM cloud packs there's open shift there's rel all those pieces so you know I know one of the things we want to talk about Davis you know what does that dynamic of Red Hat and IBM mean so you know open shift automation the full integration both of the Red Hat portfolio and how it ties in with IBM would be my top three well red hat is now IBM I mean it's a clearly part of the company it's there's a company strategy going forward the CEO Arvind Krishna is the architect of the Red Hat acquisition and so you know that it's all in on Red Hat Dave I mean just the nuance there of course is the the thing you hear over and over from the Red Hatters is Red Hat remains Red Hat that cultural shift is something I'd love to discuss because you know Jim Whitehurst now he's no longer a Red Hat employee he's an IBM employee so you've got Red Hat employees IBM employees they are keeping that you know separation wall but obviously there's flowing in technology and come on so come on in tech you look at it's not even close to what VMware is VMware is a separate public company has separate reporting Red Hat doesn't I mean yes I hear you yo you got the Red Hat culture and that's good but it's a far cry from you know a separate entity with full transparency the financials and and so I I hear you but I'm not fully buying it but let's let's get into it let's take a look at at the quarter because that I think will give us an indication as to how much we actually can understand about RedHat and and again my belief is it's really about IBM and RedHat together I think that is their opportunity so Alex if you wouldn't mind pulling up the first slide these are highlights from IBM's q1 and you know we won't spend much time on the the the IBM side of the business although we wanted to bring some of that in but hit the key here as you see red hat at 20% revenue growth so still solid revenue growth you know maybe a little less robust than it was you know sequentially last quarter but still very very strong and that really is IBM's opportunity here 2,200 clients using red hat and an IBM container platforms the key here is when Ginni Rometty announced this acquisition along with Arvind Krishna and Jim Whitehurst she said this is going to be this is going to be cash flow free cash flow accretive in year one they've already achieved that they said it's gonna be EPS accretive by year two they are well on their way to achieving that why we talked about this do it's because iBM has a huge services organization that it can plug open shift right into and begin to modernize applications that are out there I think they cited on the call that they had a hundred ongoing projects and that is driving immediate revenue and allows IBM to from a financial standpoint to get an immediate return so the numbers are pretty solid yeah absolutely Dave and you know talking about that there is a little bit of the blurring a line between the companies one of the product pieces that came out at the show is IBM has had for a couple of years think you know MCM multi cloud management there was announced that there were actually some of the personnel and some of the products from IBM has cut have come into Retta of course Red Hat doing what they always do they're making it open source and they're it's advanced cluster management really from my viewpoint this is an answer to what we've seen in the kubernetes community for the last year there is not one kubernetes distribution to rule them all I'm going to use what my platforms have and therefore how do I manage across my various cloud environments so Red Hat for years is OpenShift lives everywhere it sits on top of VMware virtualization environments it's on top of AWS Azure in Google or it just lives in your Linux farms but ACM now is how do I manage my kubernetes environment of course you know super optimized to work with OpenShift and the roadmap as to how it can manage with Azure kubernetes and some of the other environments so you know you now have some former IBM RS that are there and as you said Dave some good acceleration in the growth from the Red Hat numbers we'd seen like right around the time that the acquisition happened Red Hat had a little bit of a down quarter so you know absolutely the services and the the scale that IBM can bring should help to bring new logos of course right now Dave with the current global situation it's a little bit tough to go and be going after new business yeah and we'll talk about that a little bit but but I want to come back to sort of when I was pressing you before on the trip the true independence of Red Hat by the way I don't think that's necessarily a wrong thing I'll give an example look at Dell right now why is Dell relevant and cloud well okay but if Dell goes to market says we're relevant in cloud because of VMware well then why am I talking to you why don't I talk to VMware and so so my point is that that in some regards you know having that integration is there is a real advantage no you know you were that you know EMC and the time when they were sort of flip-flopping back and forth between integrated and not and separate and not it's obviously worked out for them but it's not necessarily clear-cut and I would say in the case of IBM I think it's the right move why is that every Krista talked about three enduring platforms that IBM has developed one is mainframe that's you know gonna here to stay the second was middleware and the third is services and he's saying that hybrid cloud is now the fourth and during platform that they want to build well how do they gonna build that what are they gonna build that on they're gonna build that an open shift they they're there other challenges to kind of retool their entire middleware portfolio around OpenShift not unlike what Oracle did with with Fusion when it when it bought Sun part of the reason - pod Sun was for Java so these are these are key levers not necessarily in and of themselves you know huge revenue drivers but they lead to awesome revenue opportunities so that's why I actually think it's the right move that what IBM is doing keep the Red Hat to the brand and culture but integrate as fast as possible to get cash flow or creative we've achieved that and get EPS accretive that to me makes a lot of sense yeah Dave I've heard you talk often you know if you're not a leader in a position or you know here John Chambers from Cisco when he was running it you know if I'm not number one or number two why am I in it how many places did IBM have a leadership position Red Hat's a really interesting company because they have a leadership position in Linux obviously they have a leadership position now in kubernetes Red Hat culturally of course isn't one to jump up and down and talk about you know how they're number one in all of these spaces because it's about open source it's about community and you know that does require a little bit of a cultural shift as IBM works with them but interesting times and yeah Red Hat is quietly an important piece of the ecosystem let me let me bring in some meteor data Alex if you pull up that that's that second slide well and I've shown this before in braking analysis and what this slide shows in the vertical axis shows net score net score is a measure of spending momentum spending velocity the the horizontal axis is is is called market share it's really not market share it's it's really a measure of pervasiveness the the mentions in the data set we're talking about 899 responses here out of over 1200 in the April survey and this is a multi cloud landscape so what I did here Stu I pulled on containers container platforms of container management and cloud and we positioned the companies on this sort of XY axis and you can see here you obviously have in the upper right you've got Azure in AWS why do I include AWS and the multi cloud landscape you answered that question before but yesterday because Dave even though Amazon might not allow you to even use the word multi cloud you can't have a discussion of multi cloud without having Amazon in that discussion and they've shifted on hybrid expect them to adjust their position on multi-cloud in the future yeah now coming back to this this this data you see kubernetes is on the kubernetes I know is another company but ETR actually tracks kubernetes you can see how hot it is in terms of its net score and spending momentum yeah I mean Dave do you know the thing the the obvious thing to look at there is if you see how strong kubernetes is if IBM plus red hat can keep that leadership in kubernetes they should do much better in that space than they would have on with just their products alone and that's really the lead of this chart that really cuts to the chase do is you see you see red Red Hat openshift has really strong spending momentum although I will say if you back up back up to say April July October 18 19 it actually was a little higher so it's been pushed down remember this is the April survey that what's ran from mid-march to mid April so we're talking right in the middle of the pandemic okay so everybody's down but nonetheless you can see the opportunity is for IBM and Red Hat to kind of meet in the middle leverage IBM's massive install base in its in its services presence in its market presence its pervasiveness so AKA market share in this rubric and then use Red Hat's momentum and kind of meet in the middle and that's the kind of point that we have here with IBM's opportunity and that really is why IBM is a leader in at least a favorite in my view in multi cloud well Dave if you'd look two years ago and you said what was the competitive landscape Red Hat was an early leader in the kubernetes you know multi-cloud discussion today if you ask everybody well who's doing great and kubernetes you have to talk about all the different options that amazon has Amazon still has their own container management with ACS of course IKS is doing strong and well and Amazon whatever they do they we know they're going to be competitive Microsoft's there but it's not all about competition in this space Dave because you know we see Red Hat partnering across these environments they do have a partnership with AWS they do have you know partnership with you know Microsoft up on stage there so where it was really interesting Dave you know one of the things I was coming into this show looking is what is Red Hat's answer to what VMware is really starting to do in this space so vSphere 7 rolled out and that is the ga of project Pacific so taking virtualization in containers and putting them together Red Hat of course has had virtualization for a long time with KVM they have a different answer of how they're doing openshift virtualization and it rather than saying here's my virtual environment and i can also do kubernetes on it they're saying containers are the future and where you want to go and we can bring your VMs into containers really shift them the way you have really kind of a lift and shift but then modernize them Dave customers are good you know you want to meet customers where they are you want to help them move forward virtualization in general has been a you don't want to touch your applications you want to just you know let it ride forever but the real the real driver for companies today is I've got to build new apps I need to modernize on my environment and you know Red Hat is positioning and you know I like what I'm hearing from them I like what I'm hearing from my dad's customers on how they're helping take both the physical the virtual the containers in the cloud and bring them all into this modern era yeah and and you know IBM made an early bet on on kubernetes and obviously around Red Hat you could see actually on that earlier slide we showed you IBM we didn't really talk about it they said they had 23% growth in cloud which is that they're a twenty two billion dollar business for IBM you're smiling yeah look good for IBM they're gonna redefine cloud you know let AWS you know kick and scream they're gonna say hey here's how we define cloud we include our own pram we include Cano portions of our consulting business I mean I honestly have no idea what's in the 22 billion and how if they're growing 22 billion at 23% wow that's pretty awesome I'm not sure I think they're kind of mixing apples and oranges there but it makes for a good slide yeah you would say wait shouldn't that be four billion you added he only added two or three billion you know numbers can tell a story but you can also manipulate but the point is the point is I've always said this near term the to get you know return on this deal it's about plugging OpenShift into services and modernizing applications long term it's about maintaining IBM and red-hats relevance in the hybrid cloud world which is I don't know how big it is it's a probably a trillion-dollar opportunity that really is critical from a strategy standpoint do I want to ask you about the announcements what about any announcements that you saw coming from Red Hat are relevant what do we need to know there yeah so you know one of the bigger ones we already talked about that you know multi cloud manager what Red Hat has the advanced cluster management or ACM absolutely is an era an area we should look VMware Tong's ooh Azure Ark Google anthos and now ACM from Red Hat in partnership with IBM is an area still really early Dave I talked to some of the executives in the space and say you know are we going to learn from the mistakes of multi vendor management Dave you know you think about the CA and BMC you know exactly of the past will we have learned for those is this the right way to do it it is early but Red Hat obviously has a position here and they're doing it um did hear plenty about how Red Hat is plugging into all the IBM environments Dave Z power you know the cloud solutions and of course you know IBM solutions across the board my point of getting a little blue wash but hey it's got to happen I think that's a smart move right you know we talked about you know really modernizing the applications in the environments I talked a bit about the virtualization piece the other one if you say okay how do I pull the virtualization forward what about the future so openshift serverless is the other one it's really a tech preview at this point it's built off of the K native project which is part of the CNC F which is basically how do I still have you know containers and kubernetes underneath can that plug into server list order server let's get it rid of it everything so IBM Oracle Red Hat and others really been pushing hard on this Kay native solution it is matured a lot there's an ecosystem growing as how it can connect to Asher how it can connect to AWS so definitely something from that appdev piece to watch and Dave that's where I had some really good discussions with customers as well as the the Red Hat execs and their partners that boundary between the infrastructure team and the app dev team they're hoping to pull them together and some of the tooling actually helps ansible is a great example of that in the past but you know others in the portfolio and lastly if you want to talk a huge opportunity for Red Hat IBM and it's a jump ball for everyone is edge computing so Red Hat I've talked to them for years about what they were doing in the opened stack community with network function virtualization or NFV Verizon was up on stage I've got an interview for Red Hat summit with Vodafone idea which has 300 million subscribers in India and you know the Red Hat portfolio really helping a lot of the customers there so it's the telco edge is where we see a strong push there it's definitely something we've been watching from the you know the big cloud players and those partnerships Dave so you know last year Satya Nadella was up on the main stage with Red Hat this year Scott Guthrie you know there he's at every Microsoft show and he's not the red head show so it is still ironic for those of us that have watched this industry and you say okay where are some of the important partnerships for Red Hat its Microsoft I mean you know we all remember when you know open-source was the you know evil enemy for from Microsoft and of course Satya Nadella has changed things a lot it's interesting to watch I'm sure we'll talk more at think Dave you know Arvind Krishna the culture he will bring in with the support of Jim Whitehurst comes over from IBM compared to what Satya has successfully done at Microsoft well let's talk about that let's let's talk about let's bring it home with the sort of near-term midterm and really I want to talk about the long term strategic aspects of IBM and Red Hat's future so near-term IBM is suspended guidance like everybody okay they don't have great visibility some some some things to watch by the way a lot of people are saying no just you know kind of draw draw a red line through this quarter you just generally ignore it I disagree look at cash flow look balance sheets look at what companies are doing and how they're positioning that's very important right now and will give us some clues and so there's a couple of things that we're watching with IBM one is their software business crashed in March and software deals usually come in big deals come in at the end of the quarter people were too distracted they they stopped spending so that's a concern Jim Cavanaugh on the call talked about how they're really paying attention to those services contracts to see how they're going are they continuing what's the average price of those so that's something that you got to watch you know near-term okay fine again as I said I think IBM will get through this what really I want to talk about to do is the the prospects going forward I'm really excited about the choice that IBM made the board putting Arvind Krishna in charge and the move that he made in terms of promoting you know Jim Whitehurst to IBM so let's talk about that for a minute Arvind is a technical visionary and it's it's high time that I VM got back to it being a technology company first because that's what IBM is and and I mean Lou Gerstner you know arguably save the company they pivoted to services Sam Palmisano continue that when Ginny came in you know she had a services heritage she did the PWC deal and IBM really became a services company first in my view Arvind is saying explicitly we want to lead with technology and I think that's the right move of course iBM is going to deliver outcomes that's what high-beams heritage has been for the last 20 years but they are a technology company and having a technology visionary at the lead is very important why because IBM essentially is the leader prior to Red Hat and one thing mainframes IBM used to lead in database that used to lead in storage they used to lead in the semiconductors on and on and on servers now they lead in mainframes and and now switch to look at Red Hat Red Hat's a leader you know they got the best product out there so I want you to talk about how you see that shift to more of a sort of technical and and product focus preserving obviously but your thoughts on the move the culture you're putting Jim as the president I love it I think it was actually absolutely brilliant yeah did Dave absolutely I know we were excited because we you know personally we know both of those leaders they are strong leaders they are strong technically Dave when I think about all the companies we look at I challenge anybody to find a more consistent and reliable pair of companies than IBM and Red Hat you know for years it was you know red hat being an open-source company and you know the way their business model said it it's not the you know Evan flow of product releases we know what the product is going to be the roadmaps are all online and they're gonna consistently grow what we've seen Red Hat go from kind of traditional software models to the subscription model and there are some of the product things we didn't get into too much as to things that they have built into you know Red Hat Enterprise Linux and expanding really their cloud and SAS offerings to enhance those environments and that that's where IBM is pushing to so you know there's been some retooling for the modern era they are well positioned to help customers through that you know digital transformation and as you said Dave you and I we both read the open organization by Jim lighters you know he came in to Red Hat you know really gave some strong leadership the culture is strong they they have maintained you know really strong morale and I talked to people inside you know was their concern inside when IBM was making the acquisition of course there was we've all seen some acquisitions that have gone great when IBM has blue washed them they're trying to make really strong that Red Hat stays Red Hat to your point you know Dave we've already seen some IBM people go in and some of the leadership now is on the IBM side so you know can they improve the product include though improve those customer outcomes and can Red Hat's culture actually help move IBM forward you know company with over a hundred years and over 200,000 employees you'd normally look and say can a 12,000 person company change that well with a new CEO with his wing and you know being whitehurst driving that there's a possibility so it's an interesting one to watch you know absolutely current situations are challenging you know red hats growth is really about adding new logos and that will be challenged in the short term yeah Dave I I love you shouldn't let people off the hook for q2 maybe they need to go like our kids this semester is a pass/fail rather than a grid then and then a letter grade yeah yeah and I guess my point is that there's information and you got to squint through it and I think that look at to me you know this is like Arvin's timing couldn't be better not that he orchestrated it but I mean you know when Ginny took over I mean was over a hundred million a hundred billion I said many times that I beams got a shrink to grow she just ran out of time for the Gro part that's now on Arvind and I think that so he's got the cove in mulligan first of all you know the stocks been been pressured down so you know his tenure he's got a great opportunity to do with IBM in a way what such an adela did is doing at Microsoft you think about it they're both deep technologists you know Arvind hardcore you know computer scientist Indian Institute of Technology Indian Institute of Technology different school than Satya went to but still steeped in in a technical understanding a technical visionary who can really Drive you know product greatness you know in a I would with with Watson we've talked a lot about hybrid cloud quantum is something that IBM is really investing heavily in and that's a super exciting area things like blockchain some of these new areas that I think IBM can lead and it's all running on the cloud you know look IBM generally has been pretty good with acquisitions they yes they fumbled a few but I've always made the point they are in the cloud game IBM and Oracle yeah they're behind from a you know market share standpoint but they're in the game and they have their software estate in their pass a state to insulate them from the race to the bottom so I really like their prospects and I like the the organizational structure that they put in place in it by the way it's not just Arvind Jim you mentioned Paul Cormier you know Rob Thomas has been been elevated to senior VP really important in the data analytic space so a lot of good things going on there yeah and Dave one of the questions you've been asking and we've been all talking to leaders in the industry you know what changes permanently after the this current situation you know automation you know more adoption of cloud the importance of developers are there's even more of a spotlight on those environments and Red Hat has strong positioning in that space a lot of experience that they help their customers and being open source you know very transparent there I both IBM and Red Hat are doing a lot to try to help the community they've got contests going online to you know help get you know open source and hackers and people working on things and you know strong leadership to help lead through these stormy weathers so Stuart's gonna be really interesting decade and the cube will be here to cover it hopefully hopefully events will come back until they do will be socially responsible and and socially distant but Stu thanks for helping us break down the the red hat and sort of tipping our toe into IBM more coverage and IBM think and next week this is Dave alotta for Stu minimun you're watching the cube and our continuous coverage of the Red Hat summit keep it right there be back after this short break you [Music]

>> Narrator: Live, from Las Vegas, it's The Cube, covering IBM Think 2018. Brought to you by IBM. >> Hello, everyone and welcome back to our day two of coverage here in Las Vegas, where IBM Think 2018's The Cube's three days of wall-to-wall coverage day two. Yesterday, we had kick-off, kind of partner day. Today's really the kick-off of the event. CEO of IBM up on stage for the keynote. I'm John Furrier with Dave Vellante. Dave, we're doing seven years or so plus all these six shows coming down to one for IBM Think. It's a packed house; you can't even get through the hallways. Looks like they need to go to Sands Convention Center. >> Dave: (laughs) or Moscone. >> Or Moscone, or somewhere bigger, they need a bigger boat, but the keynote kicked off, Ginni Rometty was up there. Interesting, putting smart to work, quantam, blockchain, AI data and she kind of laid out the cloud strategy, you know, using data in public cloud and private. It's clear where they're going with the cloud. Your analysis of the keynote, what's your thoughts? >> Well, first of all, John, as viewers know, I mean, I'm a big fan if Ginni Rometty. I think she's been overly criticized, but I think she's a great presenter. When I compare Ginni's presentation skills with some of the other CEOs in the industry, I think she's far superior. She connects with the audience, she looks great, she's really cogent, she's well prepared, so, I really like her as a presenter and as an executive, and, you know, another women in tech, you know we love that. Yes, you're right, putting smarter to work was her theme. She's talkin' about 30 to 40,000 people at the event. There's too many people to count I guess. You can't really figure that out, and, so, it's big, it's packed. She also did a theater in the round which was different. I noticed last year ServiceNow did that. I really like that style, so that was kind of an interesting thing. Ginni talked about three exponential growth areas. So, I'll lay 'em out and then, we can talk about it. She said they come every 25 years. The first was Moore's law, and we all know what that is, and the second was Metcalfe's law, the value of the network increases exponentially if the nodes in network increase, and then, the third, which is upon us now, is data plus AI. Her supposition was that is going to usher in a next era of incremental growth, because you're going to out-learn the competition, and she used this term of incumbent disruptors, and I heard that and went okay, hold on, (Dave laughs) 'cause I don't see it that way. >> Yeah. >> I don't see the incumbents as the disruptors. So, that was my first reaction, and then, she brought up three customers, Verizon, and I'm like, "Verizon? "A big telco is a disruptor, come on! "They're gettin' a disruptor by over the top.", but the CEO came on, Lowell McAdam, talkin' about 5G, so we'll talk about that, and then, Maersk, IBM has a joint venture with Maersk, so, Michael White came up, he's the CEO of that. Now, Maersk is using blockchain, and Maersk we all know is the container company and they're attacking inefficiencies with blockchain, so I thought that was actually a really good example, and then, Royal Bank of Canada, RBC, came up. You know, banking, to me, is an industry that has not been disrupted yet, and, so, I, again, was initially negative toward this idea of incumbent disruptors, 'cause I don't think the incumbents are disruptors, and we'll talk about why I think that, but I thought IBM did a pretty good job of showing how incumbents can actually take AI and blockchain and, at least, defend against the disruptors. >> I mean, it's clear to me that she's obviously playing to the crowd with the digital debt transformation. I mean, we talk about these traditional companies, they need to transform, and she brings up Moore's law and Metcalfe's law kind of to take a view of the past, but to look forward, she's kind of saying, "Lookit, Moore's law make things smaller, faster, "cheaper, doubling every six months." That's just on the, I mean, this applies to IoT, quantum makes everything else. Metcalfe's law I think is very relevant, 'cause if you look at blockchains about decentralized internet, you're talkin' about decentralized applications, that's where blockchain will play the major enablement there, that's about network effects, so you bring network effects in with Metcalfe's law, Moore's law on the equipments on the hardware side, I like that, so, that worked for me. The disruptors, I think it's more of overplaying her hand on that, because I just haven't seen any evidence of any incumbents truly disrupting themselves. So, maybe you can talk with Microsoft, IBM's trying to transform, but at the end of the day, they got to look back and learn from the internet era. If you don't jump on these next waves, you could be driftwood, right? So, you got to surf the new waves, and I think that's what I heard her say is IBM is putting data at the center of the value proposition using AI as a front end for that, make it smarter, and then, using blockchain as an infrastructure and protocol level opportunity to take the IBM software and data plane and wrap 'em together. So, if you look at it, you got data at the center, blockchain on one side, and AI on the other, it's the innovation sandwich. That, for me, works for me, now, let's unpack that. How real is it, and that's going to be what we're going to talk about, and I think that's a good strategy. All the elements are in play. >> Well, I think the other piece of that sandwich, maybe it's the dressing on top, is the cloud, 'cause you have to have scale and network effects in order to achieve that innovation. I just want to mention, she talked about three other things that you are going to do as a customer. You're going to, one, leverage digital platforms, you're going to, two, embed learning in, virtually, every process that you do, and, three, you're going to empower humans. So, she put forth this idea of augmented intelligence, and, as I predicted yesterday, she, unlike Larry Olsen, she doesn't come right out and slam her competition, she does it in a classy way. She said, quote, "IBM is not "in conflict with your business." In other words, we're not taking your data and then, remonetizing it at the back end. That's a big deal, IBM makes a lot of noise about that. So, it's really augmenting humans, not in conflict with your business, and bringing advanced security to things like blockchain, >> Yeah. >> and cloud, and AI. >> I like her term security to the core, I like that, but that kind of gives the impression that's core to all things, but if you look at the megatrends that are impacting the incumbents and the people trying to do digital transformation, as well as the new startups, Dave, that are trying to get a new position in the landscape is clear. You got blockchain, you got decentralized apps, you got AI, but the data's critical, and she mentioned some cool things I like with the cloud which was she's saying, "Lookit, we'll make "the data a really big thing for you. "If you want it in public cloud, "you can have it in private cloud." So, she's looking at cloud as much more of a hybrid approach on private, kind of hinting at the GDPR problem that we know's out there. So, if you want to move your data around, that's a critical asset. Also, if you look at what's going on in the news today, these days, is Facebook is getting slammed because how they were hacked with the election, and other weaponization of data, this is a big deal for companies, and I think if IBM can play that card to leverage the data and have the confidence of the companies that they serve to say, "Lookit, data's got to be owned by you, "but has to be managed in a way that's dynamic, "whether it's a GDPR or some other regulatory issue.", and, believe me, blockchain's going to have some. So, you know, they could come out and get in the front of this new wave, and I think that's a good play. So, it wasn't just a recycled cloud show, it wasn't just AI Watson, I like how she put it together. >> So, just touching on a thing, you mentioned Facebook. So she talked about Moore's law ushering in this era of back office productivity. She didn't mention Wintel; I think it's still, probably, too painful for IBM to think about that. Metcalfe's law, she said ushered in, sort of, the Facebook era. I think that's fair, the network effect of Facebook, and then, she said, "Hopefully, you know, "they'll call this Watson's law." I don't know if that's going to happen, but that notion of, >> Wishful thinking. >> hey, hey, you got to be power of positive thinking, but that notion of exponential learning. I want to talk about cloud for a minute. You and I had some interesting debates yesterday in our open about cloud. Oracle announced its earnings yesterday, cloud growth 30%. I see Oracle and IBM as very similar in their cloud strategies; both companies would vehemently disagree with that, >> Yeah. >> but I think they are very similar in that sense. The street didn't like it, because Oracle cloud only grew at 30%, stock's down, okay, great, but, to me, IBM and Oracle are similar in that they're basically cloudifying their business. They're allowing their clients to onboard customers to the cloud, putting their applications portfolios, their SAS products, their middleware into the cloud, IBM putting mainframe class stuff in the cloud, they're putting power into the cloud, storage into the cloud, pretty much everything into the cloud if you want it. Now, that's not easy to do >> Yeah. >> if you've got, you know, legacy businesses, obviously, AWS has a blank sheet of paper, that was kind of your point yesterday, >> Yeah, yeah. >> but I like the differentiation that I see from the companies like IBM and Oracle, and there really aren't many others like that. >> Yeah. I mean, my point yesterday was the definition of cloud has been totally mangled, right? Like, it's different, if you're Amazon, they have a slew of services, they have more services than anyone else on the planet, and they have more people using those services, so, by that standard, Amazon is clearly kicking everyone's butt, but that's just their perspective. If you look at IBM, their services are applications, same with Oracle. So, if you look at what IBM's doing is they're taking the same approach. Services and applications are going to be IBM's view of the cloud, but IBM's taking a multicloud approach, and I think that's different, and, when you put the data as the central component of the architecture, you're basically saying, "I'm going to look "at the cloud as more of a commodity layer. "I'll let the customers decide which cloud to use.", and that's a better strategy, now, it's hard to do multicloud, so maybe they're buying some time, but I think that's a good, solid strategy to take if they're not going to be trying to push their own cloud as 100%, because not all customers will sole source cloud unless there's functionality that that cloud does. For instance, Amazon is winning the public sector business like it's nobody's business, because they have the only cloud that has the ability to do classified and non-classified cloud. Nobody else has it, so, from a log speck standpoint, they're winning everything and from the DOD, CIA, and government. What IBM has to do is go into customer requirement saying, "We're the only company that can provide this." That's a unique opportunity for IBM. I think that's a winning approach rather than going on a frontal arms race of services with Amazon, and that's what all the big guys are doing. Microsoft, Oracle, IBM are not taking on Amazon directly, because they're going to have to match feature for feature, and then, Amazon wins that game every time. >> So, I want to go back to something Sam Palmisano said when he was CEO of IBM in 2012 on his way out. HP was the hot company, Hurd was running the company, and he was asked, "Do you worry about HP?" He said, "I don't worry about HP, "'cause they don't invest in R&D. "I worry about Oracle, 'cause they invest in R&D.", and, again, what I like about Oracle and IBM, they both invest in R&D, IBM even, you know, core stuff around blockchain, certainly quantum computing and the like. So, I think that is a very positive dynamic for both of those companies. >> Well, I mean, IBM's R&D is a secret weapon, I think, for them; they don't overplay that much. They do talk about it, but we look at what blockchain potentially could be, and I think, you know, IBM's certainly doing the messaging on blockchain. It still has a bunch of ads on T.V., and they're trying to make that a kind of a global brand, but blockchain speaks to a new infrastructure, right? It's not just distributed computing, it's decentralized computing, and we were saying on the Cube and we've been reporting there is a new wave of software developers coming on the market that are going to be writing decentralized applications for token economics. The notion of tokens isn't about ICOs and those scams, although there's a lot of those going on. The notion of token economics fit with a mobile cloud decentralized architecture whether it's IoT, or end users, or applications, token economics is going to change the impact in efficiencies up and down the stat. So, to me, the developer community that's rushing into the market on the decentralized applications will be a major opportunity, but you got to nail the blockchain and that tech is just a moving train from a protocol standpoint to an infrastructure. So, to me, I like what IBM's doing with blockchain. I think that's going to be an opportunity to move the ball down the field. >> So, the exponential innovation formula, in my view of the next ten years, is going to, and you nailed it, going to combine data with artificial intelligence, or machine intelligence, and cloud economics, and there is a set of digital services emerging. >> Well, cloud and token economics, both, it's two. >> But, so, yes, but, so, and that's part of it, but there's a set of digital services emerging in this fabric, and they're not bespoke services, they're part of this integrated fabric. The extent to which people leverage those services, those digital services, to create new business models is going to determine success or failure. Data, at the core, is critical. >> Yeah, yeah. >> I think you're right on on that, but what I like is that IBM is trying to solve some hard problems with AI. >> I mean, lookit, I was tweeting yesterday all day on some highlights from my Puerto Rico trip on the cryptocurrency events we've been covering, and one thing that we reported was the killer app for blockchain and cryptocurrency and decentralized apps is money. Money is the killer app, and we see that with the hype cycle with the ICOs, but, if you look at what IBM's doing with the supply chain side of their business, perfect storm for supply chain innovation. Blockchain is about money, marketplaces, and nailing inefficient incumbents. So, if the incumbents want to be disruptive, they're going to have to disrupt themselves by removing inefficiencies out of the system. >> Well, and the Maersk example was a good one where there's inefficiencies, you know, 20% of the cost of moving containers is admin stuff. Sometimes the admin costs exceed the shipping costs. So, that was a good example, but, again, I see blockchain as one component in this fabric, in this puzzle. >> Day two, Cube here, kicking off wall-to-wall coverage. Three days of live broadcast talking to the thought leaders. Extracting the signal from the noise, the Cube, the number one leader in live tech coverage. Go to cube.net to check out all the footage and siliconangle.com to check out all of our articles. We're reporting and the team reporting all week, and that analysis of Ginni's keynote, well done, Dave. More coverage after this short break. (techno beat) >> Narrator: Robert Herjavec.

(upbeat music) >> Covering InterConnect 2017, brought to you by IBM. >> Welcome back. We're here live in Las Vegas from Mandalay Bay for the IBM InterConnect 2017, this is Cube's exclusive coverage with SiliconANGLE media. I'm John Furrier, my co-host Dave Vellante here all week. We missed our kickoff this morning on day two and, because the keynotes went long with Ginni Rometty. Great star line up, you had Marc Benioff, the CEO of AT&T, and CEO of H&R Block, which I love their ad with Mad Men's guy in there. Dave let's wrap up day two. Big day, I mean traffic on the digital site, ibmgo.com was off the charts and the site just performed extremely well, excited about that. Also the keynote from the CEO of IBM, Ginni, really kind of brings us themes we've been talking about on theCUBE. I want to get your reaction to that, which is social good is now a purpose that's now becoming a generational theme, and it's not just social good in terms of equality of pay for women, which is great and of course more STEM, it's everything, it's society's global impact but also the tagline is very tight. Enterprise strong, has a Boston strong feeling to it. Enterprise strong, data first, cognitive to the core, pretty much hits their sweet spot. What did you think of her keynote presentation? >> I thought Ginni Rometty nailed it. I've always been a huge fan of hers, I first met her when she was running strategy, and you know the question you used to always get because IBM 19 quarters of straight declining revenue, how long is Ginni going to get? How long is Ginni going to get? You know when is her tenure going to be up? My answer's always been the same. (laughs) Long enough to prove that she was right. And I think, I just love her presentation today, I thought she was on, she was engaging, she's a real pro and she stressed the innovation that IBM is going through. And this was the strategy that she laid out, you know, five, six years ago and it's really coming to fruition and it was always interesting to me that she never spoke at these conferences and she didn't speak at these conferences 'cause the story was not great you know, it was coming together the big data piece or the analyst piece was not formed yet. >> So you think she didn't come to these events because the story wasn't done? >> Yeah, I think she was not-- >> That is not a fact, you believe that. >> No, this is my belief. She was not ready to showcase you know, the greatness of IBM and I said about a year ago, I said you watch this whole strategy is coming together. You are going to see a lot more of Ginni Rometty than you've seen in the past. You started to see her on CNBC much more, we saw her at the Women in Tech Conference, at the Grace Hopper Conference, we saw her at World of Watson and now we see her here at InterConnect and she's very good on stage. She's extremely engaging, I thought she was good at World of Watson, I thought she was even better today. And a couple of notable things, took a swipe at both AWS and maybe a little bit at HPE, I'm not so sure that they worry about HPE. Sam Palmisano, before he left on a Wall Street Journal interview, said "I don't worry about HPE, they don't invest in RND. "I worry about Oracle." But nonetheless, she said, it's not just a new way, cloud is not just a new way to deliver IT. Right that's the Amazon you know. >> HP. >> And certainly new way of you style by IT. >> You style by IT. >> Is Meg's line. She also took a swipe at Google basically saying, look we're not taking your data to inform some knowledge draft that we're going to take your IP and give it to the rest of the world. We're going to protect your data, we're going to protect your models. They're really making a strong statement in that regard which I think is really important for CIOs and CDOs and CEOs today. Thoughts? >> I agree. I first of all am a big fan of Ginni, I always kind of question whether she came in, I never put it together like you intuitively around her not seeing the story but you go to all the analyists thing, so I think that's legit I would say that I would buy that argument. Here's what I like. Her soundbite is enterprise strong, data first, cognitive to the core. It's kind of gimmicky, but it hits all their points. Enterprise strong is core in the conversations with customers right now. We see it in theCUBE all the time. Certainly Google Nexus was one event we saw this clearly. Having enterprise readiness is not easy and so that's a really tough code to crack. Oracle and Microsoft have cracked that code. So has IBM of the history. Amazon is getting faster to the Enterprise, some of the things they are doing. Google has no clue on the Enterprise, they're trying to do it their way. So you have kind of different dimensions. So that's the Enterprise, very hard to do, table stakes are different than having pure cloud native all the time 100%, lift and shift, rip and replace, whatever you want to call it. Data First is compelling because they have a core data strategy analytics but I thought it was interesting that they had this notion of you own your own data, which implies you're renting everything else, so if you're renting everything else, infrastructure (laughs) and facilities and reducing the cost of doing business, the only thing you really got is data, highlighted by Blockchain. So Blockchain becomes a critical announcement there. Again, that was the key announcement here at the show is Blockchain. IOT kind of a sub-text to the whole show but it's supported through the Data First. And finally Cognitive to the Core is where the AI is going to kind of be the shiny, silly marketing piece with I am Watson, I'm going to solve all your health problems. Kind of showing the futuristic aspect of that but under the hood there is machine learning, under that is a real analytics algorithms that they're going to integrate across their business whether it's a line of business in verticals, and they're going to cross pollinate data. So I think those three pillars, she is a genius (laughs) in strategy 'cause she can hit all three. What I just said is a chockfull of strategy and a chockfull execution. If they can do that then they will have a great run. >> So I go back to Palmisano's statement before Ginni took over and it was a very candid interview that he gave. And as they say, you look at when he left IBM, it was this next wave was coming like a freight train that was going to completely disrupt IBM's business, so it was, it's been a long turn around and they've done it with sort of tax rates, (laughs) stock buybacks, and all kinds of financial engineering that have held the company's stock price up, (laughs) and cash flow has been very strong and so now I really believe they're in a good position. You know to get critical for just a second, yes there's no growth but look who else isn't growing. HPE's not growing, Oracle's not growing, Tennsco's not growing, Cisco's not growing, Microsoft's not growing. The only two companies really in the cartel that are growing showing any growth really are Intel a little bit and SAP. The rest of the cartel is flat (laughs) to down. >> Well they got to get on new markets and I mean the thing is new market penetration is interesting so Blockchain could be an enabler. I think it's going to be some resistance to Blockchain, my gut tells me that but the innovative entrepreneur side of me says I love Blockchain. I would be all over Blockchain if I was an entrepreneur because that really would change the game on identity and value and all that great stuff. That's a good opportunity to take the data in. >> Well the thing I like is IBM's making bets, big bets, Blockchain, quantum computing, we'll see where that goes, cloud, clearly we could talk about, you know you said it (laughs) InterConnect two or three years ago you know SoftLayer's kind of hosting. True, but Blu makes the investments hoping-- >> SoftLayer's is not all Blu makes. >> That's right, well yeah so but any rate, the two billion dollar bet that they made on SoftLayer has allowed them to go to clients and say we have cloud. Watson, NAI, Analytics, IOT these are big bets which I think are going to pay off. You know, we'll see if quantum pays off in the year term, we'll see about Blockchain, I think a lot of the bets they've been making are going to pay off, Stark, et cetera. >> So let's talk about theCUBE interviews Dave, what got your attention? I'll start while you dig up something good from your notes. I loved Willie Tejada talked about this, they're putting in these clouds journey pieces which is not a best practice it's not a reference architecture but it's actually showing the use cases of people who are taking a cross functional journey of architecture and cloud solutions. I love the quantum computing conversation we had with believe it or not the tape person. And so from the tape whatever it was, GS. >> GS8000. >> GS8000. >> It's a storage engineering team. >> But in terms of key points, modernizing IOT relevance was a theme that popped out at me. It didn't come out directly. You start to see IOT be a proof point of operationalizing data. Let me explain, IOT right now is out there. People are focused on it because it's got real business impact, because it's either facilities, it's industrial or customer connected in some sort. That puts the pressure to operationalize that data, and I think that flushes out all the cloud washing and all the data washing, people who don't have any solutions there. So I think the operationalizing of the data with IOT is going to force people to come out with real solutions. And if you don't, you're gone, so that's, you're dead. The cultural issue is interesting. Trust as now table stakes in the equation of whether it's product trusts, operational trusts, and process trusts. That's something I saw very clearly. And of course I always get excited about DevOps and cloud native, as you know. And some of the stuff we did with data as an asset from the chief data architect. >> A couple I would add from yesterday, Indiegogo who I thought had a great case study, and then Mohammed Farooq, talking about cloud brokering. 60% of IBM's business is still services. Services is very very important. And I think that when I look at IBM's big challenge, to me, John, it's when you take that deep industry expertise that they have that competes with Accenture and ENY and Deloitte and PWC. Can you take that deep industry expertise and codify it in software and transform into a more software-oriented company? That's what IBM's doing, trying to do anyway, and challenging. To me it's all about differentiation. IBM has a substantially differentiated cloud strategy that allows them not to have to go head to head with Amazon, even though Amazon is a huge factor. And the last thing I want to say is, it's what IBM calls the clients. It's the customers. They have a logo slide, they bring up the CEOs of these companies, and it's very very impressive, almost in the same way that Amazon does at its conferences. They bring up great customers. IBM brings in the C-Suite. They're hugging Ginni. You know, it was a hug fest today. Betty up on stage. It was a pretty impressive lineup of partners and customers. >> I didn't know AT&T and IBM were that close. That was a surprise for me. And seeing the CEO of AT&T up there really tees it out. And I think AT&T's interesting, and Mobile World Congress, one of the things that we covered at that event was the over the top Telco guys got to get their act together, and that's clear that 5G and wireless over the top is going to power the sensors everywhere. So the IOT on cars, for instance, and life, is going to be a great opportunity for, but Telco has to finally get a business model. So it's interesting to see his view of digital services from a Telco standpoint. The question I have for AT&T is, are they going to be dumped pipes or are they actually going to move up the stand and add value? Interesting to see who's the master in that relationship. IBM with cognitive, or AT&T with the pipes. >> And, you know, you're in Silicon Valley so you hear all the talk from the Silicon Valley elites. "Oh well, Apple and Amazon "and Google and Facebook, "much better AI than Watson." I don't know, maybe. But IBM's messaging-- >> Yes. >> Okay, so yes, fine. But IBM's messaging and positioning in the enterprise to apply their deep industry knowledge and bring services to bear and solve real problems, and protect the data and protect the models. That is so differentiable, and that is a winning strategy. >> Yeah but Dave, everyone who's doing-- >> Despite the technical. >> Anyone who's doing serious AI attempts, first of all, this whole bastardized definition. It's really machine learning that's driving it and data. Anyone who's doing any serious direction to AI is using machine learning and writing their own code. They're doing it on their own before they go to Watson. So Watson is not super baked when it comes to AI. So what I would say is, Watson has libraries and things that could augment traditional custom-built AI as a kernel. Our 13-year-old guest Tanmay was on. He's doing his own customizing, then bring it to Watson. So I don't see Watson being a mutually exclusive, Watson or nothing else. Watson right now has a lot of things that adds to the value but it's not the Holy Grail for all things AI, in my opinion. The innovation's going to come from the outside and meet up with Watson. That to me is the formula. >> Going back to Mohammed Farooq yesterday, he made the statement, roughly, don't quote me on these numbers, I'll quote myself, for every dollar spent on technology, 10 dollars are going to be spent on services. That's a huge opportunity for IBM, and that's where they're going to make Watson work. >> If I'm IBM and Watson team, and I'm an executive there and engineering lead, I'm like, look it, what I would do is target the fusion aspect of connecting with their customers data. And I think that's what they're kind of teasing out. I don't know if they're completely saying that, but I want to bring my own machine learning to the table, or my own custom stuff, 'cause it's my solution. If Watson can connect with that and handshake with the data, then you got the governance problem solved. So I think Seth, the CDO, is kind of connecting the dots there, and I think that's still unknown, but that's the direction that I see. >> And services, it remains critical because of the complexity of IBM's portfolio, but complexity has always been the friend of services. But at the same time, IBM's going to transform its services business and become more software-like, and that is the winning formula. At the end of the day, from a financial perspective, to me it's cash flow, cash flow, cash flow. And this company is still a cash flow cow. >> So the other thing that surprised me, and this is something we can kind of end the segment on is, IBM just reorganized. So that's been reported. The games, people shift it a little bit, but it's still the same game. They kind of consolidated the messaging a little bit, but I think the proof point is that the traffic for on the digital side, for this show, is 2X World of Watson. The lines to get into keynotes yesterday and today were massive. So there's more interest in InterConnect than World of Watson. >> Well we just did. >> Amazing, isn't it? >> Well then that was a huge show, so what that means is, this is hitting an interest point. Cloud and data coming together. And again, I said it on the intro yesterday. IOT is the forcing function. That to me is bringing the big data world. We just had Strata Hadoop and R event at BigDataSV. That's not Hadoop anymore, it's data and cloud coming together. And that's going to be hitting IOT and this cognitive piece. So I think certainly it's going to accelerate at IBM. >> And IBM's bringing some outside talent. Look at Harry Green who came from Thomas Cook, Michelle Peluso. Marketing chops. They sort of shuffled the deck with some of their larger businesses. Put Arvind Krishna in charge. Brought in David Kenny from the Weather Company. Moved Bob Picciano to the cognitive systems business. So as you say, shuffle things around. Still a lot of the same players, but sometimes the organization-- >> By the way, we forgot to talk about Don Tapscott who came on, my favorite of the day. >> Another highlight. >> Blockchain Revolution, but we interviewed him. Check out his book, Blockchain can be great. Tomorrow we got a big lineup as well. We're going to have some great interviews all day, going right up to 5:30 tomorrow for day three coverage. This is theCUBE, here at the Mandalay Bay for IBM InterConnect 2017. I'm John Furrier and Dave Vellante. Stay with us, join us tomorrow, Wednesday, for our third day of exclusive coverage of IBM InterConnect 2017, thanks for watching.

hi buddy we're back this is Dave vellante Wikibon org with Stu miniman my co-host in this segment Chad saket just here a long time cube guest good friend of the cube Chad great to see you Dave it's my pleasure as always man Stu it's good to see you my friend you know it's unbelievable right we shot and I've been talking all week we started the cube 2010 at the MC world we did SI p sapphire the week right after and then the big show for us that year was was vmworld 2010 it's the best show in town it really is it's you know we said at that greatest show on earth we're betting the house on on VMware you know as a as a topic because it is the IT economy yeah obviously spent a lot of time and as you know effort and appreciate you know the shout out that you gave us the other day on the research that we just did I appreciate the shout out that you your results found well you know it's it's all legit you know as you know we do our homework but David's do put a lot of time to that Nick Allen as well so we're really proud of that that work and at the same time things are evolving yeah I guess they want to go back to it must have been 2009 maybe we sat in a room and you chuck talked the future storage networking the up security obviously compute yep management and the whole deal and we spent a good four hours in that room yep you know I was spent after that but I was just getting started I know you would just get that much everything you laid on us that day is coming true yeah really it's really true I mean you said storage is going to be invisible eventually going to get to the network I mean you know the security pieces and on and on and on so so you know I think that that's definitely the story of this year's vmworld right the idea of what VMware is done by abstracting the control plane of networking with NSX you know prior to that integration to Sierra having talked with a lot of them to see our customers they're super happy with it but prior to that it only worked with open V switch which meant it was you know reserved for the customers who are going all-in with kvm and with Zen now in vsphere 55 it supports the distributive V switch in vsphere which means that idea of network virtualization can be applied to a large swath of customers and likewise vmware is doing the same thing for the control plane of storage which you know Stu that was starting even when you were intimately involved at it when you were at emc absolutely around control abstraction using Vasa and and the early ideas of V vols and the other thing that's going on is they're disrupting the data services plane by becoming a storage vendor with their own storage stack with v Sam yeah and we're going to talk about that yeah for sure in a second I got some time on gots do so that's it that's just your wheel so on the storage piece you know unpack for us a little bit Chad you know we talked about storage becoming invisible and we'll talk about in the network space you know what is the value of the storage array of the storage stack itself and how does that play with VMware especially as we look down to everybody's showing bball so look the name of the game is hyper automation in the end it's not storage it's not networking it's not even compute right and we talked about in the past that the design and the dream of the software-defined data center we use different words for it back you know four years ago but the vision of joe and and all of the parts of the federation of emc vmware and now the third one pivotal is to try and say how do we make all the infrastructure in essence invisible pivot even takes it further by just saying hey we'll just use paths and and get rid of even all the measures are going service for years ago right I remember it well they so really do that yes so so that the reason for it is is that it sucks when you try to provision something a workload whatever the workload maybe and the tail the long tail in the process is touching the physical infrastructure of storage networking and compute virtualization historically has tackled and I would call that problem for compute in essence solved can there be improvements for compute sure bigger faster stronger right in storage land inevitably you know we move from the stage of you talk to the storage person they provision something to you to the storage person provisions a pool of something and then you can automate that and deuce from vsphere and use it through plugins and automation ultimately though you would not even want to have that step you'd want to have the storage advertise its capabilities and then when the vm gets created it says I want out of that catalog of services this stuff and that's what Vasa and whole storage policy based management stuff from vSphere 50 51 and now 55 we're all about in networking land you don't want to have to configure VLANs you don't want to have to configure firewalls you want it to be all able to be done programmatically an only way to do that is if you can like we're just talked about with storage and with compute abstract out the network topology yeah I mean I really look at it what we've always said is we need to get rid of that undifferentiated heavy lifting so that the question I have there's there's a lot of startups in this space that have built their products for this new generation builds is a vm aware if you will or just just simple simple and the critique on emc is that this is legacy equipment and well it might be integrated and you're updating it you know this was still legacy architectures you know how does that fit into the new world so you know when you are the leader everybody will throw stones at you and occasionally even as the leader sometimes we throw stones at others and I don't like that right but I think you might be talking about our friends at perhaps tintri as an example well that they are one that they are built for virtual environments absolutely and if you take a look at it what everyone who is in this space new players emerging players we're trying to today hack at that problem tintri to write because there's no constructs at the vSphere layer for vm awareness what they do in their Nasdaq we do in our Nasdaq is to say AHA file is an object a file can be snapped a file can be replicated and if we hyper couple it into vSphere using plugins and extensions we can then manage and operate on those files right now again I'm not saying that our implement eight it's up to the customers to decide about whether emcs is better or ten trees is better and ultimately the customers choose right but basically we're all kind of trying to hack at that because right now Vasa which is the official policy communication vehicle only operates on data stores data store unit of granularity right V vols has always been the target of how we would all as an industry do that right so i would i would argue that what we showed today about you know recoverpoint and the splitter driver and being able to do tivo like functionality for a vm or replicate for a vm i would argue we more than hold our own with the competition but the right answer ultimately is actually to keep going down the path of V vols in the evolution of vaasa so that you know it can be done correctly and not fake vm awareness but actually have fundamental vm awareness I so since we started on storage I got to chime in here so a couple things so I asked Pat this this morning and his response was essentially hey it's all good these guys are on board but I'm skeptical so about what here's the here's the about what so as I said sort of off-camera Microsoft and Oracle I've already been grabbing storage function and their narrow little parts of the world but you p.m. seen a nap everybody else you've seen NEP but particularly Mabel to find ways to add value I compete very effectively there iam VMware's this horizontal player mm-hm and doing something like v san yep you know its nose software-defined this is you know the future I said to Pat well don't guys like EMC and netapp and shirts certainly HP and itachi and IBM etc don't they want to do their own software-defined he goes yes but they're sort of bought bought into this and what do you think about that as a salt as emc I think I think I don't know whether it's right to say it on camera or not I think that basically as NSX was announced and v san has been announced and everybody in the industry is known that these things are coming you know you could hear audibly people's uh what this what the you know you know you're kind of a cisco right of these in I mean so V sans idea of saying hey I'm going to glom the storage that's in the server the dads the flash the pcie-based flash and use it as a distributed storage layer is a good idea it's an idea that is real and innovation is non containable as as Pat would say you know he's a super fan of andy grove right you know is his mentor Andy Grove had a famous quote that basically said innovation can't be stopped if the incumbents don't do it new startups will arrive that will do it yeah no that's that's fair right Sam Palmisano as well said you're going to get commoditized no matter what so so but the key thing is that it will take some time for V Santa mature the 10 target was correctly positioned in the in the keynotes as use it for non-persistent VDI use it for tests and Dev customers are slowly starting to grok the idea of hey wait a second this thing by definition has to create multiple copies of the data on multiple servers so it's space efficiency is not as good right but I think what's going to occur is your people are going to start to use it and they're gonna dig it yeah they're going to want more and they're going to want more which is great right now from our standpoint EMC sales reps may not like it but EMC likes it because you know what there are portions in the market where we have had great success taking lots of share continue to outgrow the competition but there's other places where we frankly fail to serve properly and if those customers choose v san kumbaya customer happy shareholder happy it's all good right v san will expand though right and in fact as a company we embrace the idea of a software-only data service and this is a data plane thing not a control plane thing that's why we acquired scale io recently right because we're looking a look v san will be the answer for customers who love vmware and our 100% vmware and i talked to a big one today who are like yep that's us likewise i talked to a huge one that were like nope we need an answer that's like v san but works with kvm Zen and hyper-v and vsphere some people like their stacks to lock in at one point and their trade that off and your surveys showed that yeah yeah others about half a woman to live with that right and get function they get function and simplicity right and V San will be phenomenal at that as people are seeing now right i've been using the beta for a long time so I know what but the reality of it is that it's going to be a broad kind of ecosystem of traditional storage stacks embedded into hypervisor storage stacks ones that are packaged as bring your own server akv San and scale IO type things ones that are packaged as will give you the server to new tannic simplicity we live in a beautiful chaotic works hope so boyer in this piece the piece that he had stew did took a little shot at the cartel and you didn't like that you thought you shot back so no that is absolutely not not how we roll it's not how are you roll so so how do you roll hotel eat what you kill Isaac cuts hit it you know so listen to be very blunt I'd be lying if I didn't said that there weren't moments whereas EMC we don't get frustrated that hey you know VMware you you should always work with us right again it happens more in the in the field rather than from a you know our headquarters standpoint right there's times where VMware gets really grumpy when EMC is supporting hyper V or OpenStack and a customer right there's times where vmware is really angry that pivotal runs on AWS and like the announcement earlier this week was hey it works great on vsphere like so think about how weird that is it's been like running on AWS for a while now it runs on vsphere and I bchs right Joe is I think Joe Tucci i think i have an insane amount of respect for that guy he was wise enough to go i need to resist the temptation to simplify for our own internal purposes and create lock-in from the past stack through the app stack through that you know vmware stack through the emc sec and instead say you must all fight for the customer independently and EMC you have to pursue it assuming that VMware isn't a constant VMware you must pursue it as if EMC is certainly not a constant pivotal you should pursue it as if neither one of them is a constant now the one thing that I would highlight to everybody who's watching is don't understand miss understand what I'm saying at the same time whenever one of them is not the best choice for the other jogos hey hey what's up guys it's got this yeah who's got this ball so when V CHS was being stood up and they were looking at alternate storage choices Pat didn't say you have to use EMC but he knocked and said guys we're looking at different storage choices you better come in here and if you don't win on your own merits we'll go with someone else you know I think thankfully they did right and we made that argument you're saying if part of Pat's 50 billion dollar cam comes out of AMC's hog well that's the MCS problem they got to figure out how to shore it up yeah we have to figure out how to compete Chad wonder if you know you own the global se forth you know for emc in this ever complicated world it was you know it wasn't easy when you created the V specialist force but it was focused on VMware and they got a lot of weight behind that there were product managers marketing people all with vmware yep titles inside emc in this world of OpenStack and you know hyper-v and kvm how do you deal with that in the field so so that's a great question man so the first observation just while there is diversity right your survey reflects what I tend to find at my customers right which is overwhelmingly VMware within the enterprise use of some k VMS and OpenStack you know where they would have used vSphere or or the vcloud suite a little bit of dabbling in the enterprise some enterprise customers more than others the cloud service cloud service providers far more right when we were doing the V specialist thing it was an effort to rapidly ramp things up and so we built small focused team small focused product managers what's now happened over the last four years is you know if you think back man like EMC was like a no-show at vmworld 2006 right we our company got the memo focused in we won the best storage choice for VMware deepest integration blah blah blah the what's HAP makes me very happy now is that's now embedded into the product teams it no longer requires a someone watching it just happens organically gooood from a field standpoint the V specialist role many of those V specialists are now leaders of the SE orgs and all sorts of functions so it's no longer somebody thing it's now on everybody thing right but the V specialist mission which used to be makes sure that emc is the best choice for VMware has broadened out to really be best choice for the vcloud suite and VMware stack and also OpenStack to understand and reflect the fact that it's a it's a dynamic open world so so we brought to get in the hook and made me talk about networking so we're just going to ignore the hook for now and talk about networking so NSX yes awesome we saw Martines yeah a little demo up there but it's not going to be that simple why is networking so so hard and you now remember 2009 yeah showed us the roadmap yep now we're here where's it's so first things first what he demoed it is actually that simple if you can constrain a whole bunch of parameters right so if you can constrain yourself to every endpoint is a distributed virtual switch or an open V switch like that thermodynamics problem you can so know what I'm talking about so so if some assumptions its simplify rate they write it if you can if you can constrain it and say everything is connected to a distributive e switch from VMware or an open V switch from kvm and Zen and you assume that the net physical network layer is a bottomless pit of bandwidth and latency in other words you know that there will never be a contention you know at the core networking layer it actually is really that easy right now that may sound like Chad those two constraints are stupid they're not actually that stupid right within the core data center bandwidth is very easy to apply it's much easier to say I'll deploy 10 gige and then go to 40 gig e than it is to hyper design the data center with qos and manage the you know customers have demonstrated time and time again that they'll just go from one gig to 10 gig to 48 to 100 gig rather than trying to hyper engineer the whole thing inside the data center in the wam different story right right also I mean it is a true statement to say in a service provider and in most enterprises eighty ninety percent of their workloads do finish on a thing that is attached to a distributive virtual switch or a physical switch right now where it's going to get funky is that obviously I think NSX is perhaps out there in front in terms of SDN land but they're not alone you know there were lots of partners and we know that cisco has got some cool stuff that they talked about at Cisco live and that our are coming right and you can't you know this goes an amazing company and they have many beloved customers and CC IES and CCNA s around the globe that you know are going to be very interested to see what since you been see I mean interesting play and you can read all about it online and people speculation sure yeah it's going to it's going to be cool though I mean I think one thing that is fun to remember is like innovation is non-stop about it'sit's disruptions or can't be stopped they're going to happen no matter where and in the end it's fundamentally all good for the customer whether it's real CVM where NSX whatever what I love and I said this the pet and I said this did Paul Moretz when I first heard his you know vision I said you guys vmware is ambitious you know if nothing else its ambitious and it's executed on that ambition so it's toss them to watch oh and you know stay tuned for next week September the fourth speed to lead there's some exciting stuff coming from EMC we generally have learned over the years that it's not a good idea to do mega launches and big things during this week because like you said this is this is vmware show and it's the greatest show on earth right yeah okay so we'll stay tuned for that will be watching hi Chad thanks very much for coming on the cubase oh it's my pleasure guys thank you so much I keep right there buddy we're right back after this quick word