>> Hi, everyone; I am thrilled to personally invite you to a special event created and hosted by "theCUBE." On January 21st, we're holding "theCUBE on Cloud," our first editorial event of the year. We have lined up a fantastic guest list of experts in their respective fields, talking about CIOs, COOs, CEOs, and technologists, analysts, and practitioners. We're going to share their vision of Cloud in the coming decade. Of course, we also have guests from the big three Cloud companies, who are going to sit down with our hosts and have unscripted conversations that "theCUBE" is known for. For example, Mahlon Thompson Bukovec is the head of AWS's storage business, and she'll talk about the future of infrastructure in the Cloud. Amit Zavery is one of Thomas Kurian's lieutenants at Google, and he'll share a vision of the future of application development and how Google plans to compete in Cloud. And J.G. Chirapurath leads Microsoft's data and analytics business. He's going to address our questions about how Microsoft plans to simplify the complexity of tools in the Azure ecosystem and compete broadly with the other Cloud players. But this event, it's not just about the big three Cloud players. It's about how to take advantage of the biggest trends in Cloud, and, of course, data in the coming decade, because those two superpowers along with AI are going to create trillions of dollars in value, and not just for sellers, but for practitioners who apply technology to their businesses. For example, one of our guests, Zhamak Dehghani, lays out her vision of a new data architecture that breaks the decade-long failures of so-called big data architectures and data warehouse and data lakes. And she puts forth a model of a data mesh, not a centralized, monolithic data architecture, but a distributed data model. Now that dovetails into an interview we do with the CEO of Fungible, who will talk about the emergence of the DPU, the data processing unit, and that's a new class of alternative processors that's going to support these massively distributed systems. We also have a number of CXOs who are going to bring practical knowledge and experience to the program. Allen Nance, he led technology transformation for Phillips. Dan Sheehan is a CIO, COO, and CTO and has led teams at Dunkin' brands, Modell's Sporting Goods and other firms. Cathy Southwick has been a CIO at a large firm like AT&T and now is moving at the pace of Silicon Valley at Pure Storage. Automation in the Cloud is another theme we'll hit on with Daniel Dines, who founded and heads the top RPA company. And of course, we'll have a focus on developers in the Cloud with Rachel Stevens of RedMonk. That's a leading edge analyst firm focused exclusively on the developer community. And much more that I just don't have time to go into here, but rest assured, John Furrier and I will be bringing our thoughts, our hard-hitting opinions, along with some special guests that you don't want to miss. So click on the link below and register for this free event, "theCUBE on Cloud." Join us and join the conversation. We'll see you there.

(digital music) >> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The storage business as we know it has changed forever. On-prem storage was once a virtually unlimited and untapped bastion of innovation, VC funding and lucrative exits. Today it's a shadow of its former self and the glory days of storage will not return. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights Powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis, we'll lay out our premise for what's happening in the storage industry, and share some fresh insights from our ETR partners, and data that supports our thinking. We've had three decades of tectonic shifts in the storage business. From the simplified history of this industry shows us there've been five major waves of innovation spanning five decades. The dominant industry model has evolved from what was first the mainframe centric vertically integrated business, but of course by IBM and it became a disintegrated business that saw between like 70 or 80 Winchester disk drive companies that rose and then fell. They served a booming PC industry in this way it was led by the likes of Seagate. Now Seagate supplied the emergence of an intelligent controller based external disc array business that drove huge margins for functions that while lucrative was far cheaper than captive storage from system vendors, this era of course was led by EMC and NetApp. And then this business was disrupted by a flash and software defined model that was led by Pure Storage and also VMware. Now the future of storage is being defined by cloud and intelligent data management is being led by AWS and a three letter company that we'll just call TBD, otherwise known as Jump Ball Incorporated. Now, let's get into it here, the impact of AWS cannot be overstated now while legacy storage players, they're sick and tired of talking about the cloud, the reality cannot be ignored. The cloud has been the most disruptive force in storage over the past 10 years, and we've reported on the spending impact extensively. But cloud is not the only factor pressuring the on-prem storage business, flash has killed what we call performance by spindles. In other words, the practice of adding more disk drives to keep performance from tanking. So much flash has been injected into the data center that that no longer is required. But now as you drill down into the cloud, AWS has been by far the most significant factor in our view. Lots of people talked about object storage before AWS, but there sure wasn't much spending going on, S3 changed that. AWS is getting much more aggressive about expanding its storage portfolio and its offerings. S3 came out in 2006 and it was the very first AWS service and then Elastic Block Service EBS came out a couple of years later, nobody really paid much attention. Well last fall at storage day, we saw AWS announce a number of services, many fire-related and this year we saw four new announcements of Amazon at re:Invent. We think AWS' storage revenue will surpass 8 billion this year and could be as high as 10 billion. There's not much data out there, but this would mean that AWS' storage biz is larger than that of a NetApp, which means AWS is larger than every traditional storage player with the exception of Dell. Here's a little glimpse of what's coming at the legacy storage business. It's a clip of the vice-president of AWS storage, her name is Mahlon Thompson Bukovec, watch this. Okay now, you may say Dave, what the heck does that have to do with anything? Yeah, I don't know, but as an older white guy, that's been in this business for awhile, I just think it's badass that this woman boxes and runs a business that we think is approaching $10 billion. Now let's take a quick look at the storage announcements AWS made at re:Invent. The company made four announcements this year, let me try to be brief, the first is EBS io2 Block Express Volumes, got to love the names. AWS was claims this is the first storage area network or sand for the cloud and it offers up to 256,000 IOPS and 4,000 megabytes per second throughput and 64 terabytes of capacity. Hey, sounds pretty impressive right, Well let's dig in a little bit okay, first of all, this is not the first sand in the cloud, at least in my view there may be others but Pure Storage announced cloud block store in 2019 at its annual accelerate customer conference and it's pretty comparable here. Maybe not so much in the speeds and feeds, but the concept of better block storage in the cloud with higher availability. Now, as you may also be saying, what's the big deal? The performance come on, we can smoke that we're on-prem vendor We can bury that. Compared to what we do, AWS' announcement is really not that impressive okay, let me give you a point of comparison there's a startup out there called VAST Data. Just there for you and closure with bundled storage and compute can do 400,000 IOPS and 40,000 megabytes per second and that can be scaled, so yeah, I get it. And AWS also announced that io2 two was priced at 20% less than previous generation volumes, which you might say is also no big deal and I would agree 20% is not as aggressive as the average price decline per gigabyte of any storage technology. AWS loves to make a big deal about its price declines, it's essentially following the industry trends but the point is that this feature will be great for a lot of workloads and it's fully integrated with AWS services meaning for example, it will be very convenient for AWS customers to invoke this capability for example Aurora and other AWS databases through its RDS service, just another easy button for developers to push. This is specially important as we see AWS rapidly expanding its machine learning in AI capabilities with SageMaker, it's embedding ML into things like Redshift and driving analytics, so integration is very key for its customers. Now, is Amazon retail going to run its business on io2 volumes? I doubt it. I believe they're running on Oracle and they need much better performance, but this is a mainstream service for the EBS masses to tap. Now, the other notable announcement was EBS Gp3 volumes. This is essentially a service that lets let you programmatically set SLAs for IOPS and throughput independently without needing to add additional storage. Again, you may be saying things like, well atleast I remember when SolidFire let me do this several years ago and gave me more than 3000 IOPS and 125 megabytes per a second performance, but look, this is great for mainstream customers that want more consistent and predictable performance and that want to set some kind of threshold or floor and it's integrated again into the AWS stack. Two other announcements were made, one that automatically tiers data to colder storage tiers and a replication service. On the former, data migrates to tier two after 90 days of inaccess and tier three, after 180 days. AWS remember, they hired a bunch of folks out of EMC years ago and they put them up in the Boston Seaport area, so they've acquired lots of expertise in a lot of different areas I'm not sure if tiering came out of that group but look, this stuff is not rocket science, but it saves customers money. So these are tried and true techniques that AWS is applying but the important thing is it's in the cloud. Now for sure we'd like to see more policy options than say for example, a fixed 90 day or 180 day policy and more importantly we'd like to see intelligent tiering where the machine is smart enough to elevate and promote certain datasets when they're needed for instance, at the end of a quarter for comparison purposes or at the end of the year, but as NFL Hall of Fame Coach Hank Stram would have said, AWS is matriculating the ball down the field. Okay, let's look at some of the data that supports what we're saying here in our premise today. This chart shows spending across the ETR taxonomy. It depicts the net score or spending velocity for different sectors. We've highlighted storage, now don't put too much weight on the January data because the survey was just launched, but you can see storage continues to be a back burner item relative to some other spending priorities. Now as I've reported, CIOs are really focused on cloud, containers, container orchestration, automation, productivity and other key areas like security. Now let's take a look at some of the financial data from the storage crowd. This chart shows data for eight leading names in storage and we put storage in quotes because as we said earlier, the market is shifting and for sure companies like Cohesity and Rubrik, they're not positioning as storage players in fact, that's the last thing they want to do. Rather they're category creators around data management or intelligent data management but their inadjacency to storage, they're partnering with all the primary storage companies and they're in the ETR taxonomy. Okay, so as you can see, we're showing the year over year, quarterly revenue growth for the leading storage companies. NetApp is a big winner, they're growing at a whopping 2%. They beat expectations, but expectations were way down so you can see in the right most column upper right, we've added the ETR net score from October and net score of 10% says that if you ask customers, are you spending more or less with a company, there are 10% of the customers that are essentially spending more than are spending less, get into that a little further later. For comparison, a company like Snowflake, it has a net score approaching 70% Pure Storage used to be that high several years ago or high sixties anyway. So 10% is in the red zone and yet NetApp, is the big winner this quarter. Now Nutanix isn't really again a storage company, but they're an adjacency and they sell storage and like many of these companies, it's transitioning to a subscription pricing model, so that puts pressure on the income statement, that's why they went out and did a deal with Bain, Bain put in $750 million to help Bridge that transition so that's kind of an interesting move. Every company in this chart is moving to an annual recurring revenue model and that as a service approach is going to be the norm by the end of the decade. HPE's doing it with GreenLake, Dell has announced Apex, virtually every company is headed in this direction. Now speaking of HPE, it's Nimble business that has momentum, but other parts of the storage portfolio are quite a bit softer. Dell continues to see pressure on its storage business although VxRail is a bright spot. Everybody's got a bright spot, everybody's got new stuff that's growing much faster than the old stuff, the problem is the old stuff is much much bigger than the new stuff. IBM's mainframe storage cycle, well that's seems to have run its course, they had been growing for the last several quarters that looks like it's over. And so very very cyclical businesses here now as you can see, The data protection data management companies, they are showing spending momentum but they're not public so we don't have revenue data. But you got to wonder with all the money these guys have raised and the red hot IPO and tech markets, why haven't these guys gone public? The answer has to be that they're either not ready or maybe their a numbers weren't where they want them to be, maybe they're not predictable enough, maybe they don't have their operational act together or maybe they need to you get that in order, some combination of those factors is likely. They'll tell you, they'll give other answers if you ask them, but if they had their stuff together they'd be going out right now. Now here's another look at the spending data in terms of net score, which is again spending velocity. The ETR here is measuring the percent of respondents that are adopting new, spending more, spending flat, spending less or retiring the platform. So net score is adoptions, which is the lime green plus the spending more, which is the forest green. Add those two and then subtract spending less, which is the pink and then leaving the platform, which is the bright red, what's left over is net score. So, let's look at the picture here, Cohesity leads all players in the storage taxonomy, the ETR storage taxonomy, again they don't position that way, but that's the way the customers are answering. They've got 55% net score which is really solid and you can see the data in the upper right-hand corner, it's followed by Nutanix. Now they're really not again in the scope of Pure play storage play but speaking of Pure, its net score has come down from its high of 73% in January, 2016. It's not going to climb back up there, but it's going to be interesting to see if Pure net scorecard rebound in a post COVID world. We're also watching what Pure does in terms of unifying file and object and how it's fairing in cloud and what it does with the Portworx acquisition which is really designed to bring forth a new programming model. Now, Dell is doing fine with VxRail, but VSAN is well off its net score highs which we're in the 60% plus range a couple of years ago, VSAN is definitely been a factor from VMware, but again that's come off its highs, HPE with Nimble still has some room to improve, I think it actually will I think that these figures that we're showing here they're are somewhat depressed by the COVID factor, I expect Nimble is going to bounce back in future surveys. Dell and NetApp are the big leaders in terms of presence or market share in the data other than VMware, 'cause VMware has a lot of instances, it's software defined that's why they're so prominent. And with VMware's large share you'd expect them to have net scores that are tepid and you can see a similar pattern with IBM. So Dell, NetApp, tepid net scores as is IBM because of their large market share VMware, kind of a newer entry into the play and so doing pretty well there from a net score standpoint. Now Commvault like Cohesity and Rubrik is really around intelligent data management, trying to go beyond backup into business recovery, data protection, DevOps, bringing that analytics, bringing that to the cloud, we didn't put Veeam in here and we probably should have. They had pre-COVID net scores well in to the thirties and they have a steadily increasing share of the market, so we expect good things from Veeam going forward. They were acquired earlier this year by Insight, capital private equity firm. So big changes there as well, that was their kind of near-term exit maybe more to come. But look, it's all relative, this is a large and mature market that is moving to the cloud and moving to other adjacencies. And the core is still primary storage, that's the main supreme prerequisite and everything else flows from there, data protection, replication, everything else. This chart gives you another view of the competitive landscape, it's that classic XY chart it plots net score in the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal axis, market share remember is a measure of presence in the dataset. Now think about this from the CIO's perspective, they have their on-prem estate, got all this infrastructure and they're putting a brick wall around their core systems. And what do they want out of storage for that class of workload? They want it to perform consistently, they want it to be efficient and they want it to be cost-effective, so what are they going to do? they're going to consolidate, They're going to consolidate the number of vendors, they're going to consolidate the storage, they're going to minimize complexity, yeah, they're going to worry about the blast radius, but there's ways to architect around that. The last thing they want to worry about is managing a zillion storage vendors this business is consolidating, it has been for some time, we've seen the number of independent storage players that are going public as consolidated over the years, and it's going to continue. so on-prem storage arrays are not giving CIOs the innovation and strategic advantage back when things like storage virtualization, space efficient snapshots, data de-duplication and other storage services were worth maybe taking a flyer on a feature product like for example, a 3PAR or even a Data Domain. Now flash gave the CIOs more headroom and better performance and so as I said earlier, they're not just buying spindles to increase performance, so as more and more work gets pushed to the cloud, you're seeing a bunkering in on these large scale mission-critical workloads. As you saw earlier, the legacy storage market is consolidating and has been for a while as I just said, it's essentially becoming a managed decline business where RnD is going to increasingly get squeezed and go to other areas, both from the vendor community and on the buy-side where they're investing on things like cloud, containers and in building new layers in their business and of course the DX, the Digital Transformation. I mentioned VAST Data before, it is a company that's growing and another company that's growing is Infinidat and these guys are traditional storage on-prem models they don't bristle If I say traditional they're nexgen if you will but they don't own a cloud, so they were selling to the data center. Now Infinidat is focused on petabyte scale and as they say, they're growing revenues, they're having success consolidating storage that thing that I just talked about. Ironically, these are two Israeli founder based companies that are growing and you saw earlier, this is a share shift the market is not growing overall the part of that's COVID, but if you exclude cloud, the market is under pressure. Now these two companies that I'm mentioning, they're kind of the exception to the rule here, they're tiny in the grand scheme of things, they're really not going to shift the market and their end game is to get acquired so they can still share, but they're not going to reverse these trends. And every one on this chart, every on-prem player has to have a cloud strategy where they connect into the cloud, where they take advantage of native cloud services and they help extend their respective install bases into the cloud, including having a capability that is physically proximate to the cloud with a colo like an Equinix or some other approach. Now, for example at re:Invent, we saw that AWS has hybrid strategy, we saw that evolving. AWS is trying to bring AWS to the edge and they treat the data center as just another edge note, so outposts and smaller versions of outposts and things like local zones are all part of bringing AWS to the edge. And we saw a few companies Pure, Infinidant, Veeam come to mind that are connecting to outpost. They saw the Qumulo was in there, Clumio, Commvault, WekaIO is also in there and I'm sure I'm missing some so, DM me, email me, yell at me, I'm sorry I forgot you but you get the point. These companies that are selling on-prem are connecting to the cloud, they're forced to connect to the cloud much in the same way as they were forced to join the VMware ecosystem and try to add value, try to keep moving fast. So, that's what's going on here, what's the prognosis for storage in the coming year? Well, where've of all the good times gone? Look, we would never bet against data but the days of selling storage controllers that masks the deficiencies of spinning disc or add embedded hardware functions or easily picking off a legacy install base with flash, well, those days are gone. Repatriation, it ain't happening it's maybe tiny little pockets. CIOs are rationalizing their on-premises portfolios so they can invest in the cloud, AI, machine learning, machine intelligence, automation and they're re-skilling their teams. Low latency high bandwidth workloads with minimal jitter, that's the sweet spot for on-prem it's becoming the mainframe of storage. CIOs are also developing a cloud first strategy yes, the world is hybrid but what does that mean to CIOs? It means you're going to have some work in the cloud and some work on-prem, there's a hybrid We've got both. Everything that can go to the cloud, will go to the cloud, in our opinion and everything that can't or shouldn't won't. Yes, people will make mistakes and they'll "repatriate" but generally that's the trend. And the CIOs they're building an abstraction layer to connect workloads from an observability and manageability standpoint so they can maintain control and manage lock-in risk, they have options. Everything that doesn't go to the cloud will likely have some type of hybridicity to it, the reverse won't likely be the case. For vendors, cloud strategies involve supporting your install basis migration to the cloud, that's where they're going, that's where they want to go, they want your help there's business to be made there so enabling low latency hybrids in accommodating subscription models, well, that's a whole another topic, but that's the trend that we see and you rethink the business that you're in, for instance, data management and developing an edge strategy that recognizes that edge workloads are going to require new architecture and that's more efficient than what we've seen built around general purpose systems, and wow, that's a topic for another day. You're seeing this whole as a service model really reshape the entire cultures in the way in which the on-prem vendors are operating no longer is it selling a box that has dramatically marked up controllers and disc drives, it's really thinking about services that could be invoked in the cloud. Now remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts, wherever you listen, just search Breaking Analysis podcasts and please subscribe, I'd appreciate that checkout etr.plus for all the survey action. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. A lot of ways to get in touch. You can email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. you could DM me @dvellante on Twitter, comment on our LinkedIn posts, I always appreciate that. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE Insights Powered by ETR. Thanks for watching everyone stay safe and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)