>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> Much of the discussion around Intel's current challenges, is focused on manufacturing issues and it's ongoing market share skirmish with AMD. Of course, that's very understandable. But the core issue Intel faces is that it has lost the volume game forever. And in Silicon volume is king. As such incoming CEO Pat Gelsinger faces some difficult decisions. I mean, on the one hand he could take some logical steps to shore up the company's execution, maybe outsource a portion of its manufacturing. Make some incremental changes that would unquestionably please Wall Street and probably drive shareholder value when combined with the usual stock buybacks and dividends. On the other hand, Gelsinger could make much more dramatic moves shedding it's vertically integrated heritage and transforming Intel into a leading designer of chips for the emerging multi-trillion dollar markets that are highly fragmented and generally referred to as the edge. We believe Intel has no choice. It must create a deep partnership in our view with a semiconductor manufacturer with aspirations to manufacture on US soil and focus Intel's resources on design. Hello, everyone. And welcome to this week's Wikibon's Cube Insights powered by ETR. In this breaking analysis will put forth our prognosis for what Intel's future looks like and lay out what we think the company needs to do not only to maintain its relevance but to regain the position it once held as perhaps the most revered company in tech. Let's start by looking at some of the fundamental factors that we've been tracking and that have shaped and are shaping Intel and our thinking around Intel today. First, it's really important to point out that new CEO Gelsinger is walking into a really difficult situation. Intel's ascendancy and its dominance it was created by PC volumes. And its development of an ecosystem that the company created around the x86 instruction set. In semiconductors volume is everything. The player with the highest volumes has the lowest manufacturing costs. And the math around learning curves is very clear and it's compelling. It's based on Wright's law named after Theodore Wright T.P Wright. He was an aeronautical engineer and he discovered that for every cumulative doubling of units manufactured, costs are going to fall by a constant percentage. Now in semiconductor way for manufacturing that cost is roughly around 22% declines. And when you consider the economics of manufacturing a next generation technology, for example going from ten nanometers to seven nanometers this becomes huge. Because the cost of making seven nanometer tech for example is much higher relative to 10 nanometers. But if you can fit more circuits on a chip your wafer costs can drop by 30% or even more. Now this learning curve benefit is why volume is so important. If the time it takes to double volume is elongated then the learning curve benefit they get elongated as well and it become less competitive from a cost standpoint. And that's exactly what is happening to Intel. You see x86 PC volumes, they peaked in 2011 and that marked the beginning of the end of Intel's dominance from manufacturing and cost standpoint. You know, ironically HDD hard disk drive volumes peaked around the same time and you're seeing a similar fundamental shift in that market relative to flash. Now because Intel has a vertically integrated model it's designers are limited by the constraints in the manufacturing process. What used to be Intel's ace in the hole its process manufacturing has become a hindrance, frustrating Intel's chip designers and really seeding advantage to a number of competitors including AMD, ARM and Nvidia. Now, during this time we've seen high profile innovators adapting alternative processors companies like Apple which chose its own design based on ARM for the M1. Tesla is a fascinating case study where Intel was really not in the running. AWS probably Intel's largest customer is developing its own chips. You know through Intel, a little bone at the recent reinvent it announced its use of Intel's Habana chips in a practically the same sentence that talked about how it was developing a similar chip that would provide even better price performance. And just last month it was reported that Microsoft Intel's monopoly partner in the PC era was developing its own ARM-based chips for the surface PCs and for its servers. Intel's Zenith was marked by those peak PC volumes that we talked about. Now to stress this point this chart shows x86 PC volumes over time. That red highlighted area shows the peak years. Now, volumes actually grew in 2020 in part due to COVID which is not really reflected in this chart but the volume game was lost for Intel. When it has been widely reported that in 2005 Steve Jobs approached Intel as it was replacing IBM microprocessors with with Intel processors for the Mac and asked Intel to develop the chip for the iPhone Intel passed and the die was cast. Now to the earlier point, PC markets are actually quite good if you're Dell. Here's some ETR data that shows Dell's laptop net score. Net score is a measure of spending momentum for 2020 and into 2021. Dell's client business has been very good and profitable and frankly, it's been a pleasant surprise. You know, PCs they're doing well. And as you can see in this chart, Dell has momentum. There's approximately 275 million maybe as high as 300 million PC units shipped worldwide in 2020, you know up double digits by some estimates. However, ARM chip units shipped exceeded 20 billion units last year worldwide. And it's not apples to apples. You know, we're comparing x86 based PCs to ARM chips. So this excludes x86 servers, but the way for volume for ARM dwarfs that of x86 probably by a factor of 10 times. Back to Wright's law, how long is it going to take Intel to double wafer volumes? It's not going to happen. And trust me, Pat Gelsinger understands this dynamic probably better than anyone in the world and certainly better than I do. And as you look out to the future, the story for Intel and it's vertically integrated approach it's even tougher. This chart shows Wikibon's 2020 forecast for ARM based compared to x86 based PCs. It also includes some other devices but as you can see what happens by the end of the decade is ARM really starts to eat in to x86. As we've seen with the M1 at Apple, ARM is competing in PCs in much better position for these emerging devices that support things like video and virtual reality systems. And we think even will start to eat into the enterprise. So again, the volume game is over for Intel, period. They're never going to win it back. Well, you might ask what about revenue? Intel still dominates in the data center right? Well, yes. And that is much higher revenue per unit but we still believe that revenue from ARM-based systems are going to surpass that of x86 by the end of the decade. Arm compute revenue is shown in the orange area in this chart with x86 in the blue. This means to us that Intel's last mot is going to be its position in the data center. It has to protect that at all costs. Now the market knows this. It knows something's wrong with Intel. And you can see that is reflected in the valuations of semiconductor companies. This chart compares the trailing 12 month revenue in the market valuations for Intel, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm. And you can see at a trailing 12 month multiple revenue with 3 X compared to about 22 X for Nvidia about 10 X for AMT and Qualcomm, Intel is lagging behind in the street's view. And Intel, as you can see here, it's now considered a cheap stock by many, you know. Here's a graph that shows the performance over the past 12 months compared to the NASDAQ which you can see that major divergence. NASDAQ has been powered part by COVID and all the new tech and the work from home. The stock reacted very well to the appointment of Gelsinger. That's no surprise. The question people are asking is what's next for Intel? How will Pat turn the company's fortunes around? How long is it going to take? What moves can he and should he make? How will they be received by the market? And internally, very importantly, within Intel's culture. These are big chewy questions and people are split on what should be done. I've heard everything from Pat should just clean up the execution issues. It's no.. This is, you know, very workable and not make any major strategic moves all the way to Intel should do a hybrid outsourced model to Intel should aggressively move out of manufacturing. Let me read some things from Barron's and some other media. Intel has fallen behind rivals and the rest of tech Intel is replacing Bob Swan. Investors are cheering the move. Intel would likely turn to Taiwan semiconductor for chips. Here's who benefits most. So let's take a look at some of the opinions that are inside these articles. So, first one I'm going to pull out Intel has indicated a willingness to try new things and investors expect the company to announce a hybrid manufacturing approach in January. Now, if you take a look at that and you quote a CEO Swan, he says, what has changed is that we have much more flexibility in our designs. And with that type of design we have the ability to move things in and move things out. And that gives us a little more flexibility about what we will make and what we might take from the outside. So let's unpack that a little bit. The new Intel, we know is a highly vertically integrated workflow from design to manufacturing production. But to me, the designers are the artists and the flexibility you would think would come from outsourcing manufacturer to give designers more flexibility to take advantage of say seven nanometer or five nanometer process technologies versus having to wait for Intel to catch up. It used to be that Intel's process was the industry's best and it could supercharge a design or even mask certain design challenges so that Intel could maintain its edge but that's no longer the case. Here's a sentiment from an analyst, Daniel Donnelly. Donnelly is at Citi. It says he's confident. Donnelly is confident that Intel's decision to outsource more of its production won't result in the company divesting its entire manufacturing segment. And he cited three reasons. One, it would take roughly three years to bring a chip to market. And two, Intel would have to share IP. And three, it would hurt Intel's profit margins. He said it would negatively impact gross margins by 10 points and would cause a 25% decline in EPS. Now I don't know about this. I would... To that I would say one, Intel needs to reduce its current cycle time, to go from design to production from let's say three to four years where it is today. It's got to get it under you know, at least at two years maybe even less. Second, I would say is what good is intellectual property if it's not helping you win in the market? And three, I think profitability is nuance. So here's another take from a UBS analyst. His name is Timothy Arcuri. And he says, quote, We see but no option but for Intel to aggressively pursue an outsourcing strategy. He wrote that Intel could be 80% outsourced by 2026. And just by going to 50% outsourcing, he said would save the company $4 billion annually in CapEx and 25% would drop to free cashflow. So look, maybe Gelsinger has to sacrifice some gross margin in EPS for the time being. Reduce the cost of goods sold by outsourcing manufacturing lower its CapEx and fund innovation in design with free cash flow. Here's our take, Pat Gelsinger needs to look in the mirror and ask what would Andy Grove do? You know, Grove's quote that only the paranoid survive its famous less well-known are the words that proceeded that quote. Success breeds complacency and complacency breeds failure. Intel in our view is headed on a path to a long drawn out failure if it doesn't act aggressively. It simply can't compete on cost as an integrated manufacturer because it doesn't have the volume. So what will Pat Gelsinger do? You know, we've probably done 30 Cube interviews with Pat and I just don't think he's taking the job to make some incremental changes to Intel to get the stock price back up. Why would that excite Pat Gelsinger? Trends, markets, people, society, he's a dot connector and he loves Intel deeply. And he's a legend at the company. Here's what we strongly believe. We think Intel has to do a deal with TSM or maybe Samsung perhaps some kind of joint venture or other innovative structure that both protects its IP and secures its future. You know, both of these manufacturers would love to have a stronger US presence. In markets where Intel has many manufacturing facilities they may even be willing to take a loss to get this started and deeply partner with Intel for some period of time This would allow Intel to better compete on a cost basis with AMD. It would protect its core data center revenue and allow it to fight the fight in PCs with better cost structures. Maybe even gain some share that could count for, you know another $10 billion to the top line. Intel should focus on reducing its cycle times and unleashing its designers to create new solutions. Let a manufacturing partner who has the learning curve advantages enable Intel designers to innovate and extend ecosystems into new markets. Autonomous vehicles, factory floor use cases, military security, distributed cloud the coming telco explosion with 5G, AI inferencing at the edge. Bite the bullet, give up on yesterday's playbook and reinvent Intel for the next 50 years. That's what we'd like to see. And that's what we think Gelsinger will conclude when he channels his mentor. What do you think? Please comment on my LinkedIn posts. You can DM me at dvellante or email me at david.vellante@siliconangle.com. I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes remember are also available as podcasts for your listening pleasure. Just search Breaking Analysis podcast. Many thanks to my friend and colleague David Floyer who contributed to this episode and that has done great work in the last better part of the last decade and has really thought through some of the cost factors that we talked about today. Also don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action. Thanks for watching this episode of the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Be well. And we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

(techy music) >> Announcer: Live from Las Vegas, it's theCUBE, covering Dell Technologies World 2018. Brought to you by Dell EMC and its ecosystem partners. >> We're back in not-so-sunny Las Vegas. You're watching theCUBE, the leader in live tech coverage. We're here at day three, wall-to-wall coverage of Dell Technologies World, the Inaugural Dell Tech World. I'm here with Tom Sweet, who's the CFO of the 80 billion dollar Dell Technologies empire. Thanks for coming to theCUBE. >> Happy to be here. >> So, really thrilled to have you on. I think it's the first time you've been on theCUBE. >> You guys usually don't let me on, so you know, they're letting me out a little bit, I guess. >> Well, I say, we're happy to have you. So, a lot going on, obviously, in your business. I mean, let's start with, you know, we're a couple of years into the integration, you guys, obviously, you dug in. You've got a pretty good handle on this, like I said, 80 billion. When it started, you guys were in the low 70's, I believe, so you've seen some growth. Not a lot of growth in this business, but you guys are growing. So, give us the rundown of your business. How should we think about the Dell empire, as I called it? >> Look, I think that we're very happy with the progress that we've made since the integration, which was back in September of 16, so over the last 20 months, we've been focused on building velocity within the business, and particularly, as you think about our major tranches of product, if you will. So, you know, our client business is growing quite nicely, as we evidenced by last year, 21 consecutive quarters of share gain. Pleased with our server velocity. Last year, we were number one in servers. Storage has been a bit of a work in process, as you know, but I think we're beginning to see a little bit better velocity in that business. Clearly, we have VMware, and we have Pivotal. So, what's been really interesting is how the companies have come together, and the offerings have come together in a much more integrative fashion, which has been fun to watch and fun to sort of help put this thing together. The customer buy-in and the customer acceptance of the vision and the story has been pretty remarkable, from my perspective. >> And, the client's side of the business surprised me anyway. It's like the gift that keeps on giving. >> Well, you know, what was it, 10 years ago, they said the PC was dead, you know, and today it's roughly half of our revenue and growing nicely. I think the secret, as always, as you know, is work gets done on a keyboard. The tablet and the phone become an and device, a notebook and a tablet, a notebook and a phone. We keep innovating form factors or innovating the interfaces with the device, so we're pretty excited about it. It's just a really good, really great business for us. >> I think what Michael said in his keynote, when IBM announced the end of the PC era, since then there's been four, I think he said four billion PCs shipped. >> Yes, exactly. >> It's astounding. >> Clearly, the overall market for PCs is flat to slightly down, it's going to be in that range, but in that type of market, our point of view, as you well know, is you have to take share, you have to grow. The team's done a nice job. Jeff Clark and his product team have done a really nice job around form factor innovation, 87 CES awards this year for PCs, so really good business. >> And, from a CFO's perspective, it's throwing off cash, you're comfortable with, what is it, a 5% to 6% operating margin, basically? >> We typically think of that as about a 5% op inc business, but it provides huge amount of scale for us, if you think about our supply chain, our ability. It's a nice, predictable, really strong cash flow business for us, so it's a good business. >> And, the higher end, the server business and the storage business is what now, around 7% op inc, and there's a lot of upside there, potentially? >> Yeah, it's a little bit higher than that, but there is upside there as we continue to drive the business and drive efficiency in that business and, as you know, we're doing a lot of work right now in our storage area in terms of how, over time, do we evolve that road map around the solution set, and working more in an integrative fashion with VMware around the convergence of hardware and software, into more thoughtful and more smarter designs or in the storage platforms. So, you know, that business is, that's going to be a really interesting business for us over the next year or so. >> Well, really, VMware, people look at Dell as a hardware company, but VMware is not a hardware company. It's software, marginal economics. It throws off 50% roughly of your operating cash, I mean, it's a gem. >> We're actually huge fans of VMware. It's a great company, growing very nicely, and extraordinarily well-positioned, as you think about the world of Multi-Cloud. And, what we're doing and how they're thinking about any device to any device, any Cloud to any Cloud, that whole story is resonating, and from a CFO perspective, you got to like software margins. It's a good business. >> So, let's talk about the debt a little bit, because I think there are a lot of misconceptions out there. You paid down $10 billion in debt, I think it's roughly around 40 billion now. Is that about right? >> A little bit higher than that, because we've added some debt related to our GFS business, but I think the way you ought to think about our debt load is that very manageable, we're right on the schedule we thought we were going to be on, in terms of debt paydown, and we'll continue to pay down debt, from a capital allocation focus. You know, 60-70% of our capital is focused on debt paydown, doesn't mean we're not investing in the business properly, 'cause I think we are, and we're continuing to fuel those investments, and then we're going to add some debt, because our DFS, or financing business, we use debt to fund that business, but that's a little bit different sort of perspective. We think about that debt separately and different than the core debt of the business, and our analyst community and the credit rating agencies think about that debt differently. And the GFS business is growing very nicely in terms of originations, and it's a great tool for our sales force to help in terms of the financing capacity and credit capacity for our customers. So, it's a good business. >> And, let's talk taxes for a second. I know it's kind of off the normal CUBE interviews, but a lot of people talk about that. All the legislation tax, legislation, that's bad for Dell, you can't write off that debt, but essentially, from what I've read, it's a net neutral to you guys. >> It's generally neutral to maybe slightly negative, as we understand the debt regulatory environment today, with the US tax reform. They did put some limits on how much interest, and there's transition rules around how much you can deduct, but you know, you got to lower corporate tax rate in the US, you also have the immediate expensing of CapX, and then you've got the repatriation toll charge, but when you throw it all together, slightly negative, but it's not a big cash dynamic for us, it's not a driver of, geez, we've got to go do something with our capital structure as a result of that. So, that's just a misconception that's out there right now. >> And then, you've told me earlier that the Pivotal move was not about delevering, it was a move that you guys have been planning for a while. I mean, that was in the works before the merger. Talk about that. >> Look, I mean, Pivotal's done, their growth at Pivotal and the acceptance of Pivotal's been remarkable. So, that conversation around should we IPO, when should we IPO, has been in the works for over a year, and Pivotal needed to continue to grow and mature a little bit in some of its processes and making sure that when you decide to go public that you're ready to go public. For that last year, that's what they've been working on. But in terms of the actual, to go public and the proceeds from that, that's all about giving Pivotal their own capital to fund their business growth and dynamic. We could have done it at the Dell level, Dell technology level, but I thought it was more appropriate, the size of company they are, that they have their own capital. They're doing business with over half of the Fortune 500, so they need some substance, and it's a great retention to 'em, in terms of having currency for their employee base, for both their attracting talent and retaining talent. >> A Silicon Valley company with its own, I've visited those offices. It's not the normal corporate office down on Howard Street, right? >> No, you know, they're doing the huddles in the morning, but that's what's interesting about Dell technology, the family of businesses, the different cultures, the different capabilities, it's a pretty remarkable set of companies with it. >> The market's booming right now, hope it continues, knock wood here, but what are the assumptions you're making in your business, maybe the economy, you could touch on that. >> We look across the top 45 economies right now, where we do business. They're all growing, GDP's growing, so we feel pretty good about the overall economic environment. Interest rates are slightly rising, but not a big issue for us, even with our debt load. We're about, roughly 70% fixed, 30% floating, so the fact that LiveBoard's up a little bit isn't a big deal. Currency's relatively stable, so we're positive, and companies and institutions are spending on IT, the round of innovation that's being driven, the round of investments and the changes in business models. Typically, one of the first things they go do is they invest in IT to help with that digital transformation, that IT transformation. We're bullish on the economics, so it's a good platform for us. >> One of the things I've said for quite some time now is that the merger between Dell and EMC was inevitable. You had these pressures of Cloud, you needed a company who was comfortable, with a lower margin business and had a profitability model that could thrive, and it made a lot of sense. But, you don't have a public cloud, and you're comfortable with that, but you've done a lot of work with, I'll call, utility pricing. Can you talk about that a little bit? >> Well, one of the feedback things we got from our customers is, hey, look, I like the economics of the Cloud. I like this pay-as-you-consume, pay-as-you-grow, that flexibility to scale up, scale down, so through our Dell Financial Services and using our own balance sheet, we have put together flexible consumption models, so I can offer you a pay-as-you-grow, pay-as-you-consume, or we can do a straight out utility where the assets are on my balance sheet and you're paying a monthly fee, if you will. So, all we're trying to do there is to normalize the economics for our customers, say, hey, I want you to take economics out of your decision about whether you want to go to the Cloud or not, because we can offer that capacity and capability. And, let's really talk why, and what's the purpose, and what's the work load, what's the problem that you're trying to solve? >> And, you obviously recognize that as radical revenue. >> Yeah, absolutely. >> I'm guessing it's not meaningful, like a software company shifting from a perpetual model, or is it? >> Well, I think over time you're going to see the rise in these types of models. Customers are interested, as a service models. So, there is interest in that, and I think you'll see that piece of the business grow over time, but I don't think it's going to be a step function change. But, again, it's just another example, I think, of Dell Technologies offering customers what they want and in different and innovative ways to do business with us. >> One of the things that EMC did, was they did a lot of M&A. That's kind of how EMC innovated, no offense to my friends from EMC, but they fill gaps. And, a lot of times, those gaps created huge overlaps. You guys are addressing that carefully, I understand that. How has the merger, the debt, affected your ability to do M&A? How critical is that to you guys, because you are very acquisitive, obviously, as well? >> We are still very active, as we look at the technology trends and what type of capabilities and new technologies are on the horizon, so we haven't done a lot of M&A since the acquisition of EMC. We've principally focused on the integration, but if you look at VMware, they've done acquisition, we've done a couple of really small tuck-ins within the family, but we'll continue to look at that. And, one of the other tools in our tool chest, as you know, is Dell Technologies Capital. I think we've got roughly over 81 investments in technology startups, principally on the West Coast, but some overseas, and very focused on security, AI, machine learning, next-generation storage capabilities, and so we get exposed to that type of technology, and we put our R&D teams together with them, so I feel like we're in a reasonable position, and as the business tells me they need something, we'll go evaluate it. >> I want to ask you a question about your peers, the CFOs. I'm getting to know you a little bit. I think you're a rock star CFO. One of our analysts said to us the other day, Tom Sweet is a stud, I said, yeah, it's the make-up on theCUBE. >> I don't know about that. >> So, what's going on in the, well, you've got a big job, and you've got a really good handle on what's going on here. What's going on in the world of CFOs these days? I mean, obviously, you've got stuff like GDPR that gets in there, but digital transformation is obviously a huge theme among the C-Suite. Security is a board level issue. What kind of discussions are you having with your peers these days? >> Look, I mean, most of the conversations tend to be around two or three different areas. One is how do you think about how does the finance function and our capabilities change over the coming three, five years, right? How do you think about the use of AI, machine learning, and in the processes of the company? And, what is everybody doing to innovate around that? That's a pretty common conversation we're having. You know, security cyber is a huge conversation point in terms of how is your board looking at it, how are you thinking about it. Since we're CFOs, we're always talking about how much money, what's that investment profile you need to have there, in terms of what's the right amount? As you well know, you can spend a lot of money there. Are you guaranteed of a perfect defense? Absolutely not, so that tends to be a common area, but more importantly, there's this whole comment, this whole big data conversation that's also happening around how do you help the business make better decisions? How do you add and drive value back to the business? How are you using advanced analytics to drive insight back into the business, the various businesses? So, pretty much the same sort of conversations we're having with our customers, we're having internally, or amongst the CFO community. >> A lot of risk management, obviously, >> Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. >> goes into that equation. >> I mean, inside of tech or outside of tech, are there companies or CFOs that you sort of follow, admire, kind of models that you look at? >> Look, there's some great CFOs that I've had the opportunity to have interactions with. You know, Mark Hawkins at Salesforce is a great CFO, also a good friend, Amy up at Microsoft, really doing a really nice job up there, and then Bob Swan at Intel. So, we tend to sort of be industry-organized, just because that's how we interact, but they're all doing nice jobs and really interesting innovative things within the context of their companies' business models. >> Have you changed the sources of where you guys get information? Obviously, your peers is probably number one, but as the digital world comes forward, have you sort of changed the sources, or still sort of the Wall Street Journal every day? >> Well, it's guys like you, right? We're all watching the blogs and, look, the amount of data and information that's flowing these days can be overwhelming, so I tend to be, I'm looking at industry publications, I'm looking at some of the online blogs in terms of trying to understand where are our competitors headed, where is the industry headed, what are the themes out there? You know, Michael's got a perspective with his leadership team that, hey, he wants us out in front of customers, so I spend roughly 30% of my time with customers and partners. You have to be aware of, obviously, what's going around in the industry, not only to be thoughtful and intelligent, but to also help think about where do you position the company, three and five years down the road? And, helping Michael in that thought process, and helping the leadership team in that thought process. >> Well, Tom, it's been a real pleasure getting to know you a little bit, and watching you guys in action. Wish you best of luck. >> I appreciate it. >> Thank you so much for being on theCUBE. >> It was a lot of fun. >> All right. Keep it right there, buddy. We'll be right back with our next guest, right after this short break. You're watching Dell Technologies World, live on theCUBE. (techy music)

>> Voiceover: Live from Orlando, Florida, it's theCUBE, covering ServiceNow Knowledge17. Brought to you by ServiceNow. (upbeat electronic music) >> Welcome back to sunny Orlando, everybody. This is ServiceNow Knowledge17 #Know17. I'm Dave Vellante with Jeff Frick. John Donahoe is here as the newly-minted CEO and President of ServiceNow, fresh off the keynote, fresh off 49 days in. John, welcome to theCUBE, thanks for coming on. >> Thank you very much, it's great to be here. >> John: So how'd you feel up there? You had the theater in the round, you were working the audience, I loved how you walked on the stage and really got into it. How's it feel? >> Well, what I love about ServiceNow, is it's a community-based business and a community-based company. And so, we had 15,000 members of our community out there, and that community feeling is, I think, one of the real powers of the movement that's called ServiceNow and of the ethos of this company. So, I loved that, I fed off that energy. >> So, at the risk of some repetition, a little bit of background about yourself, a former Bain, former eBay CEO, you shared that with the audience. What is relevant about your background to the ServiceNow experience that you expect to have? >> Well, you know it's funny Dave, I spent the first 20 years of my career at Bain doing business transformation. And a lot of what I talked about today was digital transformation, that is, every company is trying to transform. And I spent the first 20 years of my career focused on that. And then we talked a lot about great customer experiences. Well, the consumer world and consumer-based applications like eBay, or PayPal, or many other consumer applications, are defining the new standards of what kind of easy, simple, intuitive experiences are possible. And employees are consumers at home and they're increasingly expecting the same kind of great experiences they have at home at work, and as customers of enterprises. And so I think you're going to see the world of consumer and enterprise converging. And so that's why I'm very excited about being a part of ServiceNow. >> So, you talked to the audience, as I say, about your background. You're a family man, you've got Four children. >> John: Yeah >> Jeff: Pictures on stage; which I love. You know, it really kind of goes with the folksy, you know, history of this company and the community base. Not too many people put their family photo up on the keynote. I thought it was great. >> John: Yeah, well, they're my bosses, so... (all laughing) >> Dave: Well, like you said, they make you humble >> John: Yeah. >> Dave: and you learn a lot from them, so... So I appreciated you starting that. I've got Four kids, Jeff's got kids, and so... >> John: That's great. >> Dave: And you're hosting a women in tech breakfast tomorrow, a real passion of ours, so, maybe talk about that a little bit. >> Well, I just think it's really, really important. And, people ask me: "Why do you think that way?" I think it's good business, right? At the end of the day, the ultimate thing we do to succeed in business is we need to attract, develop, and retain the very best people, >> Dave: Right. >> John: and by definition, 50% of the workforce is female. And so, to not be aggressively trying to cultivate that part of our team is to miss an opportunity. And doing it well is hard, but if you do it well, it could be a source of competitive advantage. So, I care deeply about it professionally, and then also personally as a father of a daughter, the question I ask men that have daughters and say: "Do you want your daughter to grow up and be part of a work environment that's even better than the one they would have been if they'd come at your time?" And almost all of us say, "Yes!" >> Jeff: Of course >> John: So, it's a responsibility we all share. >> So, I want to ask about your management philosophy. You know, I've heard the term, of course you have too, "benevolent dictator". You use the term, >> "servant leadership". >> "servant leadership". >> John: Yeah. >> Dave: Which starts at the customer on top. Explain your philosophy there. >> Well, it's a way I learned to lead early in my career; which is: that it's the opposite of a classic pyramid. Right, where the CEO's on top and everything's underneath. No, this is an upside-down triangle, where the reason we're here is to serve our customers, to serve our employees as they serve our customers, to serve the purpose and to the extent you can, to serve the communities in which we are part of. And my experience is that: building that deeply into the culture of a company breeds a level of commitment and a level of long-term orientation that's really important. And ServiceNow's had that from the beginning. Think about Fred Luddy embodied that. He was a brilliant technologist, and he said, "You know what, I'm going to recruit a CEO" "before the company goes public who has those skills." So, he recruited Frank, right? And Fred stayed involved. Frank embodied servant leadership. Frank could've stayed forever. Frank said I was the right CEO to serve this purpose from 75 million to a Billion Four. And then he started to looking for someone that's the right person to serve for the next generation; which is me. So this notion of stewardship, we're all here to serve our customers and try to make our purpose come alive over a long period of time. And I think it's the most enduring motivation and inspiration we can have. And it keeps the customer front and center. >> Well, so one of the first things you did in your first 100 days, you said you wanted to see 100 customers, you actually accomplished that in 45 days. So, first of all congratulations, first of all how'd you do that? (all laughing) >> Well, I went at a roadshow to 10 cities across the U.S. and just packed my days full of meetings with customers. And they were individual meetings, and we had some group meetings, some lunches and dinners. And those are some of the best because you get a conversation going. I had Four or Five, Six customers around a breakfast table or dinner table and we start talking about their issues. And, the dynamic in every situation was they would start sharing with each other. They would say, "Well, how are you addressing this?" And they'd starting saying they have similar issues, similar challenges, similar ideas of how they're going to address it. So, the power, that community power, I was seeing firsthand in smaller settings. And for me, it was just so energizing because our limitation of how quickly we can get better is well we understand our customer's needs, and also understand their feedback about where we can get better. >> Well it's interesting, you said you were a customer when you ran eBay... >> John: Yes. >> Jeff: of ServiceNow, so that's kind of some of your background knowledge of the company. When you went out on your tour, what were some of the things that surprised you that you didn't know even though you had been kind of a ServiceNow customer in the past? >> Well, I think what I hadn't fully understood was the power of the ServiceNow platform, and how it's getting pulled into new areas across the company. So, it's getting pulled to customer-facing applications, customer-facing processes like Ashley at GE is talking about. >> Jeff: Right. >> John: And it makes sense, right? I know at eBay and PayPal, we really worried a lot about how do we handle inbound contacts from our users. And password reset was the #1 inbound contact. (dave laughing) Well, password reset is a perfect process that can be handled in an automated in a self-help way; which is ultimately what the customer wants. >> Jeff: Right. >> John: And ServiceNow can help enable that. And so, as I was sort of surprised and delighted by how this platform is getting pulled into new use cases, that in many ways are back to what Fred Luddy imagined when he founded the company. The interesting thing is, Fred founded the company as a platform to serve all services, businesses, business processes across the enterprise. And then, but platforms don't generate revenue, They don't sell. So, he found an application: ITSM; which was the first application, and it took off. And so ServiceNow began to be known as the IT company. But that was never what Fred envisioned. It was a company that enabled and empowered IT to simplify and automate and transform the entire company. >> It's interesting, password reset. Because it seems like such a simple process. And it doesn't necessarily seem like a high-value process. But in fact, it's hugely high-value for the customer. It's hugely cumbersome in terms of the time it takes. So, to automate something that seems so simple as password reset, has huge implications in terms of efficiency inside and customer satisfaction on the outside. What a great example. >> Well, and here's what's so interesting about that example: Is, it touches multiple parts of the company. Because, people actually, your password is your security. And you could automate changing it in a way that was insecure. But, you've got to do it in a way that it's the convenience that we want to reset our passwords, but we want to know we're safe. And so, that password reset flow has to touch security, it has to touch engineering, it has to touch operations and customer support, it has to touch the customer's record, and so it's a classic multi-function, multi-discipline flow, but you want to make that easy and simple for a user, and yet also have them feel safe. Simple and safe is hard to do. >> John, you mentioned Ashley from GE, I want to talk about digital transformation. It's one of those terms you hear a lot at these conferences, sometimes it's amorphous, it's kind of like A.I. We'll talk about that if we have time. But Jeff, I love your quote. We follow GE quite closely, and Jeffrey Immelt said: "I went to bed an industrial giant," "and I woke up a software company one day." >> John: Yep. >> Dave: And you see this everywhere. So what is digital transformation to you and the customer's that you've been talking to? >> Well, here's, technology and software in particular on one hand is disrupting every company in every industry. I view that as a motivation. I view that as a wake-up call for all of us, including a software company. And, software is an opportunity. An opportunity to make changes and advancements at a pace and a magnitude that's been unparallelled in business history. So every company needs to define how they're going to use technology, how they're going to use software, how they're going to use digital capability to their advantage. To their advantage with their own consumers, their own customers, either industrial customer or a consumer in a consumer business, and how to use it to change the employee's experience and improve it. So, employees are spending time not on manual tasks; which now can be done by technology, but on higher value-added activities, and then how you can operate a global enterprise in an effective and efficient manner. And so, technology is an offensive weapon if you will, an offensive tool, is something that's on the mind of every CEO, and every company. And that's where they're looking for how do they have a few trusted partners. A few trusted technology partners that help them navigate their way through that, help them drive their way through, and that's ultimately what ServiceNow is. >> So these are big ideas, and they involve a lot of different constituencies within your customer base. Obviously, your IT peeps, as we like to say, but the CIO, who's role is changing, and also the line of business folks. So these are big, heavy lifts that you can't do alone. You've got to have an ecosystem to do that. When we did our first Knowledge in 2013, the SIs were a lot of companies frankly that we never even heard of. And now, you're seeing all the big SIs. I don't even want to name them because I'll forget some. But, your partner strategy is critical to achieving that vision that you just laid out, isn't it? >> Absolutely, Absolutely. Because it takes both of us. It takes our software and then their capabilities to help our shared customers, shared clients, implement the software, and do it increasingly in a way that is as configurable as possible; which means as minimum customization as possible, and also as quickly as possible. And our partner ecosystem's an essential partner in doing that. And there's the big SIs, and then also some of the smaller ones. I spent some time with customers in some smaller cities where they're saying having local capabilities, local teams, that were trained and certified on ServiceNow was really important to them. Often they end up being acquired by or joining the bigger SIs over time, but that sort of grass roots opportunity. Because that's also job creation. That's job creation in communities. I got to see how talented, computer-literate, software-literate people in different cities around the world are seeing an opportunity to create a livelihood by helping customers integrate ServiceNow in the most effective way. >> So two years ago, Frank Slootman in his keynote said that the CIO's role is changing and they're becoming business people. >> John: Yes. >> Dave: And kind of challenged CIOs, if you don't speak wallet you better start learning that language, the "lingua franca" of the business. So, you obviously agree with that. But, how is the CIO role changing, and how does it support other roles within the organization, that you're trying to apply ServiceNow to? >> Well, I have a really, Jeff, a really outside-in... Or, Dave, really outside-in...sorry about that. >> Dave: It's alright. >> John: I've had a lot of names this morning. >> Jeff: I'm sure you have. >> Dave: That's pretty good. >> John: Outside-In view of this. Which is through the eyes of the customer, alright? The CEO is thinking about: "Alright, I've got to serve our customers better," "I've got to retain our customers" "and serve our customers better." "And then I've got to tract and retain employees" as we've been talking about. "And I need the digital capability," "I need technology to help us do that." Their going to turn to the most technically-literate person in the C-suite to help do that. That's the CIO, right? And so the CIO by very definition has to play a broader role of partnering with the business unit leaders, with the functional leaders, to drive that end-to-end business transformation or digital transformation. And the CIOs that I met are ready to take on that challenge. They couldn't have done that before the cloud technologies that give them the ability to play offense. But these cloud technologies now cut across, they don't just sit in IT, they cut across all of the enterprise. >> Jeff: Right, right. >> John: And so, I would say there's almost this gigantic sucking sound, if you will, to use an old Ross Perot-ism, that IT and the CIO are being asked to play this role, be change agents, strategic change agents, across the enterprise. And they're ready to do that, but they do need to speak business in business terms, and business value, and business value means: Are we serving our customers better? What's our customer NPS? What's our customer response time? What's our customer retention? They need to speak employee value terms: What's our ability to retain our best employees? What's their satisfaction? And then of course they have to speak the business terms of efficiency, right? Are we being more productive and more efficient as we're serving our customers and as we're serving our employees? And so, the CIOs I met and the IT professionals I met, are asking for help to translate what they do into that business language. And the very best ones are doing it. And I think you'll see that trend continue more and more. >> And they've got to have automation, and they've got to have efficiency because their budgets aren't going up commiserately with their increased responsibility to drive this digital transformation. So they've got to wring that extra value out of the tools and processes and people that they have, and that's where you really help them quite a bit. I think I saw a quote the other day that someone went from 60 days to Two days in a business process, amazing. >> Well, and it's interesting because companies are investing more in technology than they ever have. If you take the broad technology spend, they're investing more in technology. But, they expect to get productivity and efficiency, not just out of IT, but across the entire enterprise. >> Jeff: Across the board. >> John: And that's the opportunity: More investment, greater productivity, greater value for customers and employees. >> You talked yesterday to the financial analyst about the sort of execution machine that you inherited. Personally, I think you have a great CFO, one of the best if not the best in the business. So I presume you're not going to be spending a lot of your time trying to restructure reporting and counting beans, no pejorative intended there. So, what do you bring to the organization? Where are you going to spend your time? And what are your main goals over the next mid-term and long-term? >> Well, as you said, I'm blessed. Mike Scarpelli, I think, is a world-class CFO and the best in the industry and I'm honored and thrilled to work with him. Same with Dave Schneider and Kevin Haverty who run our sales force. And now CJ Desai, our Chief Product Officer, Dan Rogers, we've got a really strong team. My focus is to have us continue our current momentum, continue the current execution that we're focusing on. But then, to begin to sort of chart a course for 2018, 2019, 2020, and beyond as we go from being a billion-dollar company, to a four, to five-billion dollar company, to beyond to a 10-billion dollar company. And the nice news is that it's building on top of this very solid foundation. As we evolve from being what has been an IT-focused platform company to be more of a digital transformation platform and company. And helping our clients, helping our customers, achieve their aims and their goals, and being one of the few trusted technology partners. Every company has a few trusted technology partners and we want ServiceNow to be one of those. And, to do that, you've got to be viewed as mission-critical and adding real value, both of which I think we are. >> Dave: So you could joke, you know, don't mess it up. >> John: Yes. >> Dave: Okay, and take it to another level; which really is kind of what seems to be your expertise. Bringing it into the line of business is talking to the CEO and other C-level executives. And actually, marrying the expertise of the CIO has cross-organizational purview, leveraging that capability and super-powering that. >> Exactly. Exactly. You know, it's interesting. If I were to look back on the last 15 years, the C-suite role that has changed the most in the last 15 years has been that of the CFO. 15 years ago CFOs were being counters. >> Dave: Yeah. >> John: Right? Today, as you said, as Mike Scarpelli and Bob Swan, my previous CFO at eBay and the best CFOs, they drive value across the enterprise. Right? They're almost COOs in their mindset. They work with business units, and they add enormous value. So that job has become significantly more important and powerful. I see the same thing happening with the CIO over the next Five to 10 years where the CIOs role with grow, and expand, and broaden. And that's exciting. >> Well, you know, one of the things, actually, you know, we come to these conferences, and there's obviously a lot of messaging, but we try to understand how that messaging actually fits with what customers are doing. One of the things that you guys are messaging this year is light speed. And so, when you talk about the CFO and the changing role, it brings up, to my mind anyway, light speed requires a new set of metrics, and listening to, like Scarpelli, talk yesterday, he's all over the metrics. And these aren't, you know, your typical, you know, EBITDA metrics, they are just a new set. Do you see that happening within, not only ServiceNow, but within your customer base, where the so-called, I'll call them, "light speed" metrics are emerging? >> Absolutely. I mean, you saw the example of Dave Wright going through the machine learning, and how the machine learning capability, when applied to the ServiceNow platform, applied to specific problems, helps you fix problems before they happen in an automated fashion. Imagine that, right? That's light speed. Dave said it so well on stage. (all laughing) That's even faster than light speed. And so, you begin to see, alright, how do you measure, in delivering a great customer experience, how do you measure the reductions of problems? How do you measure the prevention of problems that provides greater availability, greater reliability, greater consistency, of a customer's experience? Now, ultimately that measure will be in customer NPS or some other customer metrics. But, some of the subordinate metrics I think you will see a growing number of what I would call L2, L3 metrics, that is, a dashboard of how to run a great company around customers, employees, and financials. >> Alright John, I know you're super busy, we've got to leave it there. Thank you so much for coming on theCUBE and congratulations on the role, great keynote, and best of luck. We'll be watching. >> John: Thanks very much Dave, thanks >> You're welcome, alright. >> From me, congratulations. Keep it right there, buddy, we'll be right back with our next guest. This is theCUBE, we're live from ServiceNow, Knowledge17. Be right back. (upbeat electronic music)