>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> New data from ETR's soon to be released April survey, shows a clear deceleration in spending and a more cautious posture from technology buyers. Just this week, we saw sell side downgrades in hardware companies like Dell and HP and revised guidance from high flyer UiPath, citing exposures to Russia, Europe and certain sales execution challenges, but these headlines, we think are a canary in the coal mine. According to ETR analysis and channel checks in theCUBE, the real story is these issues are not isolated. Rather we're seeing signs of caution from buyers across the board in enterprise tech. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we are the bearers of bad news. Don't shoot the messenger. We'll share a first look at fresh data that suggests a tightening in tech spending calling for 6% growth this year which is below our January prediction of 8% for 2022. Now, unfortunately the party may be coming to an end at least for a while. You know, it's really not surprising, right? We've had a two year record run in tech spending and meteoric rises in high flying technology stocks. Hybrid work, equipping and securing remote workers. The forced march to digital that we talk about sometimes. These were all significant tailwinds for tech companies. The NASDAQ peaked late last year and then as you can see in this chart, bottomed in mid-March of 2022, and it made a nice run up through the 29th of last month, but the mini rally appears to be in jeopardy with FED rate hikes, Russia, supply chain challenges. There's a lot of uncertainty so we should expect the C-suite to be saying, hey, wait slow down. Now we don't think the concerns are confined to companies with exposure to Russia and Europe. We think it's more broad based than that and we're seeing caution from technology companies and tech buyers that we think is prudent, given the conditions. You know, looks like the two year party has ended and as my ETR colleague Erik Bradley said, a little hangover shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. So let's get right to the new spending data. I'm limited to what I can share with you today because ETR is in its quiet period and hasn't released full results yet outside of its client base. But, they did put out an alert today and I can share this slide. It shows the expectation on spending growth from more than a thousand CIOs and IT buyers who responded in the most recent survey. It measures their expectations for spending. The key focus areas that I want you to pay attention to in this data are the yellow bars. The most recent survey is the yellow compared to the blue and the gray bars, which are the December and September '21 surveys respectively. And you can see a steep drop from last year in Q1, lowered expectations for Q2 in the far right, a drop from nearly 9% last September to around 6% today. Now you may think a 200 basis point downgrade from our prediction in January of 8% seems somewhat benign, but in a $4 trillion IT market, that's 80 billion coming off the income statements of some tech companies. Now the good news is that 6% growth is still very healthy and higher than pre pandemic spending levels. And the buyers we've talked to this week are saying, look, we're still spending money. We just have to be more circumspect about where and how fast. Now, there were a few other callouts in the ETR data and in my discussions today with Erik Bradley on this. First, it looks like in response to expected supply chain constraints that buyers pulled forward their orders late last year and earlier this year. You remember when we couldn't buy toilet paper, people started the stockpile and it created this rubber banding effect. So we see clear signs of receding momentum in the PC and laptop market. But as we said, this is not isolated to PCs, UiPath's earning guidance confirm this but the story doesn't end there. This isn't isolated to UiPath in our view, rather it's a more based slowdown. The other big sign is spending in outsourced IT which is showing a meaningful deceleration in the last survey, showing a net score drop from 13% in January to 6% today. Net score remember is a measure of the net percentage of customers in the survey that on balance are spending more than last survey. It's derived by subtracting the percent of customers spending less from those spending more. And there's a, that's a 700 basis point drop in three months. This isn't a market where you can't hire enough people. The percent of companies hiring has gone from 10% during the pandemic to 50% today according to recent data from ETR. And we know there's still an acute skills shortage. So you would expect more IT outsourcing, but you don't see that in the data, it's down. And as this quote from Erik Bradley explains, historically, when outsourced IT drops like this, especially in a tight labor market, it's not good news for IT spending. All right, now, the other interesting callout from ETR were some specific company names that appear to be seeing the biggest change in spending momentum. Here's the list of those companies that all have meaningful exposure to Europe. That's really where the focus was. SAP has big exposure to on-premises installations and of course, Europe as well. ServiceNow has European exposure and also broad based exposure in IT in across the globe, especially in the US. Zoom didn't go to the moon, no surprise there given the quasi return to work and Zoom fatigue. McAfee is a bit of a concern because security seemed to be one of those areas, when you look at some of the other data, that is per actually insulated from all the spending caution. Of course we saw the Okta hack and we're going to cover that next week with hopefully some new data from ETR, but generally security's been holding up pretty well. You look at CrowdStrike, you look at Zscaler in particular. Adobe's another company that's had a nice bounce in the last couple of weeks. Accenture, again, speaks to that outsourcing headwinds that we mentioned earlier. And now the Google Cloud platform is a bit of a concern. It's still elevated overall, you know but down and well down in Europe. Under that magic, you know we often show that magic 40% dotted line, that red dotted line of net score anything above that we cite as elevated. Well, some important callouts to hear that you see companies that have Euro exposure. And again, we see this as just not confined to Europe and this is something we're going to pay close attention to and continue to report on in the next several weeks and months. All right, so what should we expect from here? The Ark investment stocks of Cathie Wood fame have been tracking in a downward trend since last November, meaning, you know, these high PE stocks are making lower lows and higher, sorry, lower highs and lower lows since then, right? The trend is not their friend. Investors I talk to are being much more cautious about buying the dip. They're raising cash and being a little bit more patient. You know, traders can trade in this environment but unless you can pay attention to in a minute by minute you're going to get whipsawed. Investors tell me that they're still eyeing big tech even though Apple has been on a recent tear and has some exposure with supply change challenges, they're looking for maybe entry points in, within that chop for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. And look, as I've been stressing, 6% spending growth is still very solid. It's a case of resetting the outlook relative to previous expectations. So when you zoom out and look at the growth in data, getting digital right, security investments, automation, cloud, AI containers, all the fundamentals are really strong and they have not changed. They're all powering this new digital economy and we believe it's just prudence versus a shift in the importance of IT. Now, one point of caution is there's a lot of discussion around a shift in global economies. Supply chain uncertainty, persistent semiconductor shortages especially in areas like, you know driver ICs and boring things like parts for displays and analog and micro controllers and power regulators. Stuff that's, you know, just not playing nice these days and wreaking havoc. And this creates uncertainty, which sometimes can pick up momentum in a snowballing effect. And that's something that we're watching closely and we're going to be vigilant reporting to you when we see changes in the data and in our forecast even when we think our forecast are wrong. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to Alex Merson who does the production and podcasts for Breaking Analysis and Stephanie Chan who provides background research. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight, and all theCUBE writers they help get the word out, and thanks to Rob Hof, our EIC over at SiliconANGLE. Remember I publish weekly on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. These episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you got to do is search Breaking Analysis podcasts. etr.ai that's where you can get access to all this survey data and make your own cuts. It's awesome, check that out. Keep in touch with me. You can email me at dave.vellante@siliconangle.com. You can hit me up on LinkedIn. This is Dave Vellante for theCUBE insights powered by ETR. Be safe, stay well, and we'll see you next time. (gentle music)

>>from around the globe. It's the Cube covering HP Discover. Virtual experience Brought to you by HP >>Everybody welcome back to the Cube's continuous coverage of Discover 2020. That virtual experience. The Cube has been been virtualized really excited to have Marissa Freeman here. She's the chief brand officer, Hewlett Packard Enterprise. And, of course, he joined by Jim Jackson. Who's the CMO of HP? Guys, Great to see you Wish we were face to face. But thanks so much for coming on the Cube. >>Great to be here. Hope that you and your family and your friends are safe and well, >>and we're back at you both. Jim, let me start with you. So, uh, this kind of got dumped on you with this pandemic. Different mindset. You have to do a bit flip to goto virtual you talk about some of the things that you focused in on some of the things you want to keep. And some of the things you knew you couldn't. And you had to do things differently. >>Yeah, You know, we pretty much had to rethink everything about this event platforms, how we thought about messaging, how we thought about content. Um audience acquisition demos, really everything. And for us, it really all boiled down to having a vision. And our vision was to bring the Discover experience, all that energy, the excitement that you get the in person event. We wanted to bring that to all of our customers and our partners and our team members around the world. So for us, it wasn't about virtualized discover. It was about bringing the Discover experience to a 12 inch screen. In many cases for our customers and our partners and our team members, I think another thing that was really eye opening for us. Waas thinking of opening up the aperture and thinking, Hey, we can now take this and drive. This is the true global events and we can reach people all over the world, reach customers and partners that can't come to discover because they can't physically come to the event. That was a couple of things that really we had to put a lot of thought into, and it was really exciting for us. I think one other thing is now customers, and how we think about their experience at the event became very, very important for us because you know, at an in person event, it's three days, and we can you know, there's a lot of things people can do, but you have three days of content, and then people move on for us. Now. Our customers might go through three weeks or three months, and we really needed to think about that experience in a very simple, seamless, easy way for them so that they could to consume the content digitally in a way that made the most sense for them. So a lot of new thinking for us. But we're really excited about the opportunities that virtual brings in that digital brings >>now immerse. So I gotta ask you so No, no meter boards at least know for a physical meter boards, you know, How did you think about continuing that branding in a virtual event? >>Well, it's, uh, it's really a beautiful experience when you look at the the intro of the platform that we're on. It's beautifully branded all the way throughout. The branding is really coming through, though, in the content, um, and in the people, So we always say, Jim and I always say every year, Gosh, if we could just have every estimate on every prospect come to discover they would see our brand come to life they would feel are our purpose. They would understand, just with a new and different energized and fully charged a company, we are they would get to meet Antonio and Security. And Liz and Jennifer Income are honored and Jim and feel for themselves, uh, the power of the company. And now everyone can So the brand really is coming to life through the people. I appreciate that you love the the beautiful graphics, and we work really hard. Um, I'm all of that stuff, Sure, but the real branding is in the content itself. So >>now, Jim asses. Well, you were kind of lucky in the sense that, you know, this show wasn't in March or April. You had some time. So to see what others were doing. And you saw early on when this thing first hit, there were some the missteps there, There's there, still are even. But So what do you What do you tell people that is really unique about the Discover virtual experience? >>Yeah, I think a couple things and you're right. We did have a little more runway, and that was to our advantage. But we feel like we've taken full advantage of it. I think the first is coming back to that global experience that I talked about. So we're delivering this on 10 different with translating into 10 different languages, and that makes it easy for people to consume our key content around the world. We're truly delivering our content on time zones that are very appropriate, or our customers and our partners again, all around the world, in different Geos, we're bringing in our geo MVS where they are now having geo lounges, um, specific addresses and other things locally that really enables us to have that local experience. But derive it is making it part of a global event. I think another thing, Dave and you've been Teoh Discover. But you've seen that amazing Discover Expo Hall that we have out there with, you know, literally thousands of people and lots of demos. We had to figure out How do we bring that to a a ah, digital or a virtual experience? And I think the teams have done just an amazing job here. So what we did is we have 61 demos, and this is part of really 150 sessions. But if you just think of demos, we're going to deliver these live over 1717 100 times the first week. That's really, really powerful. This is >>live, meaning >>somebody from HP, a subject matter expert, talking to our customers, answering questions in real time. So that's unique. I think another thing that we're doing is we're not stopping after the first week. The first week is going to be extremely powerful and we can't wait for it. And but, you know, we're gonna extend, if you will, the value we're gonna double click and follow on Wave focused on SMB. Focus on software and containers for more of a developer, audience, Cloud services and other things like that, as well as data and storage. And then finally, I'll say, You know, we're really excited about the great speakers that we have Marissa >>talks >>about. You know, Antonio Qwerty, Irv etcetera. But we've got some great outside speakers as well. Lewis Hamilton from Mercedes Formula 16 time Formula One champion Simone Biles, uh, who's Olympian and world champion, 25 medals. We've got Steve Kerr and they're going to be part of a panel talking about performing under pressure, and we're all doing that. But it's gonna be again a great story we've got, um, John Chambers is going to be joining Antonio and talking about what great companies do during a crisis and how they prepare to come out of this kind of a situation to deliver better solutions to their customers. Soledad O Brien, who is moderating, are women leaders in I t session, and this is one of our most powerful sessions. In fact, Marissa is part of that as well. So we're really excited about this, the amount of things that we were able to bring together. And of course, we also have our CEO Summit and our Global Partner Summit happening at the same time. So we've got a lot of things that we've been able to coordinate all of this and really think about the experience from a digital in a virtual expect perspective to make it great for our customers and our partners and our attendees. A >>lot of rich content layers. Yeah. So what if you could talk about that here here to help Sort of the cultural aspects of that. What it means to your customers, your clients, your employees and your just broader community. >>Well, you know, Dave one when covert first hit the United States, we We had a lot of social media out there, a lot of digital media out there. And even before it came to the United States, when Italy and China were really suffering, we gathered as a team and audited every piece of content that we had pulled all back in. I met daily Jim and I and Jennifer temples. Teams met daily to talk about what is our tone of voice? What are we saying? How are we helping our customers get through? This time we knew how difficult it was for us with business continuity, remote workforce, we needed to help our customers and let them know that we were at the ready right now to help. So we chose to speak through the voices of our leaders. Antonio did several blocks and videos, and we rallied and redid the website completely to be all about over response and how we had many solutions for our cost. Most implement immediately from $2 billion financing Teoh setting up remote workforces, too, doing WiFi in parking lots and turning ships into hospitals. It ran the gamut, Um, and so it was really important to us that we conveyed a message of here to help. Ultimately, we ended up doing a television commercial. Antonio's voice. It was a personal letter from Antonio to his fellows, business leaders and engineers and said, Look, we know what you're going through. We're going through it ourselves. We're here to help. Here's how and it's been really motivating and successful and joy and driving people to find out more about what HP could do to help. So >>I would just add >>to what >>Murtha said. She outlined it really well. But we have some great customer examples and great customer stories as well. They're very emotional talking about how customers really needed our help and our combination of technology. People really came together to enable them to get their businesses up and running, or to address a pain point or problem for their audiences. The first point you know, there's the concept of here to help with the recovery and then here to help with the transformation as well as they look to the future. >>So how are you guys thinking about just sort of growth marketing strategies, branding strategies not only for HP but in the spirit of helping customers in this post isolation economy. Merson. Maybe you could start start us off. >>Well, we we've been talking about how this crisis has brought the future forward, nor our doorsteps. So where our customers may have been on a digital transformation path and they were accelerating it. Now there's there's an impetus to do it right now. So whether you're in recovery, um, or whether you're one of the customers for whom this crisis created a surge of demand and you needed to scale way up, these are the moments of transformation that our company is. Is there to help you with Jim? Do you want to build on that? >>Now? I think you hit the highlights there, Marissa, you know, again for us, I think we wanted to just be authentic and true to who we are as a company. And, you know, our purpose is to advance the way people live and work. And I think we live that during this time and will continue to live that as we go forward. It it's really core to who we are. And what we saw is that many of our customers really valued the fact that when they needed us the most, we were there for them and we were there for them all around the world. And, um, you know, and our goal is to continue to do that and continue to delight them and to be the best transformation partner for the future. >>I mean, culturally, we obviously re observe all this stuff, but culturally, you kind of be kind of had a heads down approach to all of this. I mean, there was there was not a hint of ambulance chasing in what you got. How you guys approach this. So I mean, I think I think culturally that here to help message it seemed like a very strong roots in citizenship. Um, you know, And then, of course, with social uprising, respect for individuals that seemed to shine through. I don't know. I know versus deliberate or that's just again cultural. Maybe >>it's it's all of the above. You can't change who you are and we need at Hewlett Packard Enterprise are people who care about other people our purpose. As Jim said, Our purpose is to advance the way people live in or every one of us every day gets up and goes to work or goes to work at home at HP to do just that. That is who we are. And so it would be an authentic for I think, true to this crisis in any other way. >>I think I wanna make an observation and see if you guys to respond. So we always talk about technology disruptions. Mercy you mentioned about, you know, the future was put forward. I'm sure you've seen the wrecking ball. You know, the folks in the building, the executives very complacent. A digital transformation not in my day. And in the 19 wrecking bald covert 19 survey, you probably saw that Who's who's leading your digital transformation CEO CTO or Covert 19. But it's really now. I mean, if you're not digital, you're not doing business. So but my observation is that it seems like despite all this technology that global disruptions are going to probably have a bigger impact in this coming decade, whether it's pandemics of social upheaval, of natural disasters, etcetera. But technology can play a huge role in supporting us through those things. Jim, I wonder if you have any thoughts on that comment. >>I mean, I think it's it's a great question, you know, if you think about it, What what happened with the macro economy Cove? It It's been a catalyst for, I think, everybody to understand that they needed to really accelerate their digital transformation. And, more importantly, they need a partner who can help them on that journey as well. I mean, if you just look at what we're talking about here >>with >>this event, right, most of h p e. And, um, you know, our >>competitors to >>cancel their virtual events >>are canceled their physical >>events rather, and they're moving now to a digital event in any way. This is going to be the new normal for us, right? So I think as we go >>forward, we're gonna >>see this only continue to accelerate. And for us, you know, our edge to cloud platform as a service strategy plays really well to helping customers accelerate that digital transformation. And, you know, it just kind of comes back to what Marissa said. You know, here to help is very very HP in terms of it's authentic and it's here. We want to be here to help our customers in their biggest hour of need. And we're doing everything we can and will continue to do that for the future as well. >>Versus, you know, having done many, many discovers we've noticed over the last several years you guys made a much bigger emphasis on the sort of post discover which a lot of organizations don't have a big physical event, and it's sort of on to the next thing. And how do you see the post from a branding standpoint? Messaging, etcetera. How do you see taking advantage of that from a virtual standpoint? And what have you learned? >>Well, we've been on our own digital transformation journey, and, you know, through Jim's leadership, we have built a pretty serious digital engine, which allows us to have a personal relationship with the customer, meet them where they are on their terms. For example, with this platform, it's even using your now because we we actually will know what content would see what sessions, what demos someone interested in. Maybe they put it, you know, on their schedule, and then didn't get to do it. So we'll go back to them later and say, Hey, we saw that you wanted to do this. It's still here. Why don't you come and have a look and then watch to that We do sort of the Netflix engine, the been newsworthy playlist of If you like that, you like this. And if you like this, you like that and we bring them through the breadcrumbs all the way through. And it's a self directed journey, but we're there to help. And that is really the true power of digital is to have that interaction, that conversation with the customer and where they want to be and with what they want to learn and read about. We'll see. >>Yeah, And everything, of course, is instrumented gym. We'll give you the last word and you were involved, as was Marissa in sort of the new HP. The new branding and the whole purpose of that was really to get Hewlett Packard enterprise focus and really back to sort of the roots of innovation. And I wonder if you could comment on from a strategy standpoint, innovation and from a competitive standpoint, you know where you're at over the last several years, we've obviously transformed as a company and where you see your competitive posture going forward. >>Yeah, you know, for us, um, we're so excited about this event because this is a great opportunity for us to showcase progress against our edge to cloud platform as a service strategy, and we roll this out last year. It's differentiated. It's unique in the marketplace. It demonstrates the transformation happening across as a service and software at Hewlett Packard Enterprise. So we are a company in transition, aligned to what we feel, our companies, our customers, biggest pain points. And when you look at some of the acquisitions that we've made some of the organic investments that we've done, we're just very well positioned to deliver against, you know, some very unique pain points that our customers have. Plus, I think another thing is, at the end of the day, really, what our customers are saying is, help me take all this data and translate that data into insight and that insight into action. You're going to hear us talk about the age of insight and how we're really again unifying across edge the cloud to deliver that for our customers. Stone. We're excited for this event because you're going to hear a significant industry revealed, focused around cloud services around software and really a lot of the things that we've been talking about. And we're going to show a lot of progress as we continue on that journey. And then, you know, Murtha mentioned digital. I'm really excited about digital because that enables us to understand and learn and help our customers and deliver a better experience for them. And then finally, you know, huge opportunity for us. Two. Take this message out globally, you know? Ah, great opportunity for people all around the world who maybe haven't heard from HP for a while to see our message, to feel the new energy to see who we are to see. Uh, you know that we're doing some very interesting things that we can help them. So we're excited. There's a lot of energy right now inside the company, and, uh, we're ready to kick it off and get rolling here. >>Well, it's quite amazing. I mean, we started off 2020 with the gut punch, but the reality is, is that 20 twenties? A lot different than 20 pens. If it weren't for technology and companies like HP here to help center, you know, we would not be in such such good shape and good in quotes. But think about it. The technology is really helping his power through this. So Jim Morrison, Thanks so much for coming on the Cube. Thank you, HB. Everything you're doing for customers in the community. Really? Thank >>you for having us. Thank you for having me. Good to see you. >>Great to see you guys to and keep it right there. Everybody, this is Dave Volante for the Cube. Our continuous coverage of hpe discover virtual experience in 2020. We're right back right after this short break. >>Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.