from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante as we watch an historic election unfold before our eyes we look back at the early days of the millennium with the memorable presidential race of 2000 that decade of course was defined by 911 which permanently reshaped our thinking and we exited that decade at the tail end of a massive financial crisis only to enter the 2010s with the hope and the momentum of fiscal stimulus a flat globe job growth and very importantly the ascendancy of the cloud cloud computing unquestionably powered the innovation engine over the last 10 years and the pandemic marks a new era where adoption of cloud data and ai have been accelerated by at least two to three years and that's what's going to shape the future of the technology industry and frankly all businesses and organizations hello everyone and welcome to this week's episode of thecube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we're going to update you on our latest cloud market share and dig in to some fresh october survey data from our partners over at etr let me start just with a brief summary of the latest action that's going on in cloud now quite interestingly each of the big three cloud players they showed nearly identical year-on-year growth rates in q3 as they did in q2 now we're going to dig into that in a moment but our data suggests that these three companies combined will account for more than 75 billion dollars in infrastructure as a service and platform as a service revenue in 2020 and they're potentially on track to hit 100 billion in 2021. customer survey data indicates that cio's top two infrastructure priorities remain security and cloud migration now that said as we previously reported the cloud it's not immune to the pandemic the remote worker pivot well it's a positive for cloud hasn't completely eradicated certain headwinds now what i mean here is that because the cloud vendors are now so large they're somewhat exposed to the softness in the overall i.t spending climate and also industries that have been hit hardest by the pandemic now would the cloud growth have been better if the pandemic didn't hit we'll never know for sure but our data suggests no covet has definitely been a benefactor to cloud in our view cloud will remain at the center of technological innovation for the foreseeable future the economics of cloud are becoming so compelling that we think the power of the big cloud companies will only increase this decade now importantly we're talking about the costs of running hyper-distributed systems we're not commenting here on what they charge customers that's a different story we believe the cost structure for the hyperscalers is superior to alternative approaches and we believe this advantage will only accelerate over the next several years we also believe that competition is going to continue to drive competitive pricing and innovation all right let's look at our latest market share numbers for the big three this chart shows our estimates of aws azure and the google cloud platform now viewers of this program know that these are is and pass figures and you also know that aws is the only company that provides clean numbers on that sector whereas azure and gcp are estimates that we make based on tidbits of guidance that the companies give us and survey data that we capture and other modeling that we do now as we've said we'll end this year it's about 75 billion in revenue or maybe even a little bit more note that for these three note that we've we've slightly restated some of our earlier estimates for azure to reconcile some differences that we had between constant currency and actual growth we try to keep things in constant currency where possible sorry for that but sometimes that happens azure according to our estimates as we reported last week is now 18 of microsoft's overall revenue number we had it at 19 that last week but when i dug in we made some adjustments so we toned it down a bit aws represents a much smaller percentage of course of amazon's revenues at about 12 percent but it represents 56 percent of amazon's profits gcp on the other hand accounts for less than five percent of google's overall revenue which as we've stated a few weeks ago needs more attention from google but look at the growth rates for these three platforms and the respective size of their is and pass businesses hear all this talk about repatriation i.e that what i mean by that is people go to the cloud but they're unhappy or the bill is too high it's too expensive so then they come back on prem well you just don't see that in the numbers so you gotta be careful when vendor a vendor tries to sell you on that trend i don't buy it except for selective situations now let's bring in some of the etr data and compare the spending momentum for each of the big three you've seen these wheel graphs before they show the breakdown of net score for aws microsoft and google now one note these figures represent these three companies overall within the etr technology taxonomy so for example they don't include amazon's retail business of course but they do include for example microsoft's entire tech portfolio not just the cloud the green portion of the wheel represents increases in spending via new adoptions and increased spending whereas the red sections show decreases via lower spending and defections net score which i've highlighted in the orange is calculated by subtracting the two reds from the two true greens in other words adoptions and increase minus decrease and replacements the takeaway here is these are all pretty strong with aws leading the pack microsoft is exceptionally strong as we pointed out last last week because they're so huge and they still have net scores comparable to aws which is a pure play gcp is a laggard and is showing softness in the data despite a sanguine outlook that we had back in 2019 based on survey data i don't know perhaps google's smaller presence muted their customers ability to take advantage of the platform the thinking there is the customers maybe needed to pivot to the cloud so quickly and aws and azure were the incumbents and that was maybe the most expedient path hence the higher increases in the spend more category but you do see gcp um they had 13 new adoptions which is pretty good so we'll keep looking at that regardless again these are not pure play cloud comparisons but they give a good indication of spending momentum i'd also note that all three show very low defections well each is showing solid increases in new adoptions especially google as i mentioned so that's kind of interesting to see but again google much much smaller you would expect that now i want to turn our attention to one of the hottest areas in cloud which is serverless and this is a pure play comparison so serverless let me start there it's a strange term because it's not really accurate but it's stuck serverless computing is a model where the cloud platform dynamically delivers services as the application requires so so you don't have to configure the compute and the containers for example rather when an application needs resources it goes and gets them and you only pay for when the services are actually invoked and in use so it's really good for workloads that spin up and spin down very frequently it kind of reminds me in concept anyway of the component tree that we saw in the days of soa if you remember that services oriented architecture but now this is cloud it's cloud native it's a whole new world and it's increasingly a popular model and as we'll show in a moment there's a lot of spending momentum in this area but before we do that i want to share some comments made by andy jassy a while back about serverless take a listen it's a good question and you know i really the comment i made was really about um directionally what amazon would do you know in this in the very earliest days of aws jeff used to say a lot if i were starting amazon today i'd have built it on top of aws we didn't have all the capability and all the functionality at that very moment but he knew what was coming and he saw what people were still able to accomplish even with where the services were at that point i think the same thing is true here with lambda which is i think if amazon were starting today it's a given they would build it on the cloud and i think with a lot of the applications that comprise amazon's consumer business we would build those on on our serverless capabilities now now lambda of course jesse referring to lambda that's amazon's serverless offering and if you think about amazon's retail business and take for example the frequent spin up and spin down of resources for something like black monday serverless would be a much more cost effective approach same for a managed data warehouse service for example where you know you don't want to pay for the compute if it's idle the app just calls for the compute when it's needed so it's a very popular model and it's got increased momentum today and you see that in this slide it shows the net score breakdown for serverless for azure aws is lambda which is again is their serverless offering and google cloud functions again you're shipping functions to the application that's why it's called functions look at the net scores azure functions nearly 70 aws at 65 google again lagging and that's a bit of a concern because this is a really really hot space all right let's move on and look at the competitive landscape as we like to do often and update you on that this xy graph is one of our favorites and it shows net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share on the horizontal market share is a measure of pervasiveness in the data set in the upper right you also see a table that ranks each vendor my net score and it includes the shared n in other words the number of mentions in this sector for each vendor now you can you can see up top in the middle i've selected on the cloud computing category so this represents only the cloud businesses for each of these players there's a little bit of nuance here and that we've selected on microsoft azure there's a category in the etr taxonomy for that and we're comparing that with aws overall so there's there are things in the aws overall number that fit into the other parts of the taxonomy like maybe ai collaboration etc whereas azures and gcp are just the cloud segments so i i know it's a bit strange because aws is all cloud but don't get caught up in the taxonomical nuance the point is it's good to be azure in aws it's shown there when you look at the upper right of the chart here they stand out and they stand alone in cloud leadership google cloud is they have nice elevated levels but they're much much smaller they don't have the presence in the market now look at that hybrid cloud zone emerging we've talked about this sometimes in the past and and i want to call it vmware cloud on aws red hat open shift and vmware cloud itself like vmware cloud foundation and their other cloud services all of these appear to be gaining traction and you can see in the number of occurrences in the upper right that shared end that i talked about we're starting to see real numbers that are meaningful in this space vmware cloud on aws for example has a net score of 53 percent with 116 accounts within that total respondent sample that you see there in the middle left of 1438 that's how many cios and technology buyers responded to the etr survey in october you look at open shift at 45 net score and that's with 82 accounts now openshift is in beta with what looked to be some really strong offerings on aws and you can see for context i've added dell emc's cloud offerings hpe's cloud offerings and the oracle cloud and ibm cloud and also rackspace dell actually pretty strong with a net score of 20 and 185 shared accounts much much higher than dell overall which is kind of in the red zone oracle ibm you see those rackspace you know organizing not killing it rackspace is kind of in the big negative so that's a concern but anyway we'd like for these guys we'd like to see the data match the marketing rhetoric for the the guys that are in the red and look alibaba is starting to to show up in the server there's only 26 shared ends but we thought we'd we'd put it in there those three key points again aws and microsoft keep on trucking google needs to do better hybrid is becoming real and that bodes well for multi-cloud and the legacy on-prem guys they got a lot of work to do they're under a lot of pressure the pivot to cloud has not been easy for them uh and it's still a case where they're i've talked about this a lot they're they're declines in their on-premises offerings they're not being offset by the new stuff the cloud momentum all right i want to close out by sharing some of the conversations and thoughts that we've had in the community around sas and its impact on cloud we really have been focusing on ias and pass of the sas layer obviously up the stack so let me first share that there's a lot of talk around and has been for years about aws they're slowing growth rates and whether or not they'll have to enter the sas market to expand their total available market and i've said consistently while i never say never about aws i don't think so at least not yet this chart plots the big three cloud players note aws is a bigger piece of this pie now that i've turned off the cloud computing filter and i know more nuances but the data wonks will will find you know see this and they'll ask me about it this is all of aws portfolio and again it's only the microsoft azure portfolio so you see it aws now overtakes azure on the x-axis i.e market share now we've plotted some of the major sas vendors and you can see servicenow and salesforce both very large and they have really strong spending momentum and servicenow's you know pushing 100 billion dollars in market value they've surpassed workday quite some time ago workday's got less presence but they've got really really solid net score and i got to say i'm impressed with sap despite some of the earnings challenges that they've been having they're right up there with splunk and tableau splunk has softened in recent surveys and i've i've also plotted in there netsuite and oracle fusion which are just okay and that is i think for now anyway aws is going to position as the best place and the most friendly and highest quality cloud in which to run your sas for example workday runs on aws aws is salesforce's preferred infrastructure platform so my premise here is just like retail companies might want not want to run on aws a number of sas companies that compete with microsoft they might think twice about running on azure so aws would be better off for now trying to attract those sas players and drive their services and sticking to infrastructure and the pass layer snowflake is actually kind of interesting and i've added them for context because their netscore is always kind of a bellwether it's really off the charts and they're an isv running on the cloud they're different from some of the other sas players and the snowflake is a database okay and most of snowflake's business runs on aws and aws competes with snowflake with redshift but aws has the best cloud and drives a lot of business for snowflake and vice versa so it's kind of interesting snow snowflake to redshift and a much smaller example is kind of like netflix to amazon prime video to compete they both thrive so i think aws is going to continue to grow by attracting sas players as the preferred platform and they'll also attract developers and try to disrupt sas players like servicenow which runs on its own cloud i remember years ago david floyer and i said that servicenow was it was awesome but at some point its infrastructure cost structure its infrastructure cost structure is going to be less competitive than those companies that are running on hyperscale clouds certainly the hyperscale clouds themselves and servicenow they have this multi-instance architecture which just can't easily port over to the cloud but it can charge a lot which it does now at some point some sharp developers are going to look at all this and say whoa see that service now i can build this for less and they'll attack servicenow and their seat base license model maybe with the consumption pricing model and a platform that's perhaps or a set of services that are perhaps less expensive you're seeing this to a you know a certain degree with like elastic inside the application performance management space so there's some some things to watch there but there are those who firmly believe that aws will and must enter the sas space directly we talked last week about how beneficial microsoft's application business is for azure and what a flywheel that is but for me i think we're not there yet let's give it some time i think maybe four to five years before aws may even start to think about filling some of the space up the stack now maybe they'll find some unique opportunities to do that for instance at the edge but i think that's way off okay so bottom line it's good to be in tech these days it's even better to be in the cloud and it's best if you're aws and microsoft and i don't see that changing for a while now remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen i publish each week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can get in touch with me through email it's david at siliconangle.com feel free to dm me on twitter at d vallante i post on linkedin love your comments there thank you and don't forget to check out etr plus for all the survey action thanks for watching this episode of thecube insights powered by etr this is dave vellante stay safe stay sane and we'll see you next time 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>> Welcome back everybody. Jeff Frick here with theCUBE we're in San Francisco at the Minds and Machines conference.  Three thousand people the fifth year of the show. Really everything about GE all the players from GE are here but are really being driven by the digital and the digitization of what was a bunch of stuff and still a bunch of stuff. But now we're digitizing it all. Yeah I'm really excited to get this bill saw you what nine months ago six months ago Timeflies to the Chief Digital Officer of chief power. Welcome. Great to see you again. >> Thank you. Thanks for being here. >> Absolutely. So just first impressions of this event. Pretty amazing. >> Yes it's gotten really bad. Right and I I remember stories of people telling me that hey this is the fifth one we're doing the first one we almost had like pull people to come here. Now we are like figure out how do we get to a bigger location because this is getting mainstream. Everybody is looking at how does digital help their business. Because in the industrial sector productivity had slowed down right over the last four or five years. It had become only 25 percent of what it used to be. So the biggest lever for productivity efficiency and creating new value is through digital transformation. It's not just automation. It's about creating new value new revenue from digital assets and that's why you see the excitement across all of the industries here. What's interesting you came from the I.T. world. >> Yeah there's already kind of been the digital transformation in the I.T. world that a lot of the I.T. stuff has now been Olek been turned into electronic assets right. You have no paper but that that can't happen in the OT world right. We still got generator just for gadget engines. You still got physical things but it's still a digital transformation. So how are those things kind of meshing together. Yeah so you know having worked in software all my career in Silicon Valley you write like you think about Cambridge with a belief that every business every industry will be reimagined with software. We've seen it in retail and music and entertainment and travel but there the software our aid the world. Yes software is going to aid the world but here software is transforming the world too because the physical assets matter. But all of the machines that we make for example in power we make machines that power the world more than one third of the world's electricity comes from a machine. Right. So all of these machines generate electrons but they also generate a lot of data more than you know two terabytes of data a day from a power plant can be generated. That's more data and more consumers will generate across an entire year old social media. So this data matters we can learn a lot from this data and make these machines efficient more productive and kind of like a 360 sexiest word for some of the industrialist is no unplanned downtime right. Element breakdowns which turns into massive productivity and value for our customers. The thing I think that would surprise most people Jeff talked about it in his keynote yesterday is that there has not been the kind of the long traditional productivity gains in the industrial machines themselves and you think wow they've been around for a long time. I would think they would be pretty pretty efficient. But in fact there's still these huge inefficiency opportunities to take advantage of with software which is why there's this huge kind of value creation opportunity. Absolutely. So now also think where the cycle time of innovation. Right. All of these are mechanical machines right. We know with advances in materials science and engineering and you know brilliant manufacturing we can get more out of the physical asset but that requires a big upgrade cycle. What if we agreed to the machine with software and that's really what we did in our businesses across power right where we called them edge applications where it's about improving the flexibility of a machine or they 50 of them. All of these are modeled and algorithms and the way to think about it is all these machines in fact outside we have a giant machine that powers this entire event. And you can see the digital twin version of that machine right here on the screen. All that is is a virtual representation of that machine from the physical world where we have all the thermal models the Trancy models the heat models the performance models all connected. But now we can run the simulation in real time all of the operation data and apply algorithms to get more performance out. A great example as we just launched one of the world's most efficient most flexible gas turbine a giant turbine called H.A.. >> But with the additional software we were able to improve the efficiency it's now the Guinness World Record holder as the most efficient flexible power plant in the world. That was then a brand new unit that was developed with the benefit of software or was that really applying a Software to our approach that was a brand new unit. But overlaid with software was able to eke out more efficiency as well. But we're doing this an older power plants as well. In fact a great story is we had a customer and Italy called A2A their multi utility company in Italy. They have a power plant and Cuba also in northern Italy. They had shut it down because it was no longer competitive to operate that power plant in the modern world where there was so much renewables. Because you got to compete in a market called ancillary services meaning you need to be able to quickly ramp up power when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine bright and shouted down right away. You can't do that with giant power plants. What we did was we completely model that's how plant and software and digital trend we show them that this actually can be competitive. So with the addition of software we were able to reopen a power plant that was mothballed and jobs were reinstated and the Paul plan is actually flexible in the open competitive ancillary services market. So all of this is possible because of software we're able to breathe new life into big giant heavy machines. So just a year in the power space I'm just tired. You know we've seen kind of in the US. No the nukes are being turned turned off. >> I grew up in Portland got trojan on the Columbia River we could take field trips with the smoke come out the cooling tower. We've got the rise of renewables are really really really going crazy. He's got this crazy dynamics and the price of oil. How's that played. How are you guys helping kind of deal with this multimodal. It's interesting here that oil and gas is still its own separate group. I'm like they got it like we want to be part of the renewables and didn't just become energy and not renewables oil and gas nuclear etc.. So you know that's a great question the industry is oil and gas has lots of other things and downstream stream and so on. And but at least across all of the electricity businesses we're coming together. And we call this the electricity Value Network. Think about where we used to think about a value chain where the Greens got generated and they traveled to the consumer. It was a linear model. And we know from Silicon Valley when digital anchors industries they all become network model. Right. Right. So we're calling this the electricity Value Network. And the interesting thing is our customers have different mix of fuel. And every part of the geography in the world in North America is still a good mix. Renewables is on the rise in California. We're going to have 50 percent power from renewables by 2030. But you still have to balance and optimize the mix of power from gas and nuclear and other sources of fuel and hydro and steam and so on. Right. And in Europe it's our abundance of renewables. >> They're struggling to integrate them into the great abundance of renewables or abundant capacity right. Renewables are growing and so they have to integrate them better in China and India for example still coal and steam is the big source of power because that's the fuel they have. They don't have as much gas. So the mix of fuel will change the world. The beauty of software as we can help optimize the mix. In the past we always talked about renewables as a silver bullet or gas silver bullet. Now we're saying software is a silver bullet regardless of what the mix of fuel we can optimize the generation of electrons and we're seeing this entire industry of electricity being transformer and digital and we call that the electricity Value Network. It's crazy interesting times so big show any big announcements happening here at the show yeah we know lots of big announcements one of the biggest ones is we're just dying day big enterprise wide digital transformation and relationship with Exelon Exelon is the largest utility in North America and they so are 10 million customers but they also generate a lot of power over 35000 megawatts of cross nuclear wind solar hydro gas and you know a year and a half ago we started a journey with them on understanding what the value of vigilance. There is such a believer and we learned a lot working with them as well and now they're deploying our Predix platform the industrial platform and APM which is our asset command and software and our food speed of operations optimization business optimization and cyber across the entire enterprise. >> So it's a big strategic agreement with them and where we're allowed to tell people is that you know a year and a half ago we were talking about what would happen if a wind farm went digital or a power plant. When you don't right now we're talking about what happens an entire utility goes digital or an entire industry of electricity goes digital and leaders like Exelon have the opportunity to create that tipping point in the industry. It does feel like this is the moment I think digital transformation of the electricity industry went real and this is it I presume not everything that they own is jii equipment no software is agnostic. Right. Right so this is really a software deal with their existing infrastructure that probably has a blend of G gear and who knows what other year that are generating. This is no different than how we in Silicon Valley would think about a enterprise software deal. It is the Enterprise subscription deal for them except it's to our cloud and our edge solutions and it's every machine right every single asset whether it's a giant gas turbine or a small little pump every machine has some sense or we will sense the rise or does the environment but all that data is being put into Predix. We will build digital twins of their entire power plants and give them more new insight and help them you know eliminate unplanned downtime and reduce operational costs citing times. We've got to get on buses to get those batteries done right till we get stored where we can we can connect them and optimize them as well. Right. Absolutely. >> I look forward to catching up six months from now and see where you guys are going out fast Bill and you and the team have grown you know from from a little bit of these kind of software skunkworks out there. Yeah I know many people are in San Ramon now. Now I think we're about a hundred people I think we're diversifying I think and it's a great challenge. So when we get the Adsit camping on the horizon. Oh and Sarah will be there. You can hit me up on Twitter again as well if you're interested in working in meaningful purposeful things like energy and the coolest things and software super. All right good. Thanks for stopping by. All right. Thank you. You have been asking us belum Jeffrey. You're watching the queue. We'll be back with our next segment after this short break.