>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto and Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante. >> The pandemic has changed the way we think about and predict the future. As we enter the third year of a global pandemic, we see the significant impact that it's had on technology strategy, spending patterns, and company fortunes Much has changed. And while many of these changes were forced reactions to a new abnormal, the trends that we've seen over the past 24 months have become more entrenched, and point to the way that's coming ahead in the technology business. Hello and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE Insights powered by ETR. In this Breaking Analysis, we welcome our partner and colleague and business friend, Erik Porter Bradley, as we deliver what's becoming an annual tradition for Erik and me, our predictions for Enterprise Technology in 2022 and beyond Erik, welcome. Thanks for taking some time out. >> Thank you, Dave. Luckily we did pretty well last year, so we were able to do this again. So hopefully we can keep that momentum going. >> Yeah, you know, I want to mention that, you know, we get a lot of inbound predictions from companies and PR firms that help shape our thinking. But one of the main objectives that we have is we try to make predictions that can be measured. That's why we use a lot of data. Now not all will necessarily fit that parameter, but if you've seen the grading of our 2021 predictions that Erik and I did, you'll see we do a pretty good job of trying to put forth prognostications that can be declared correct or not, you know, as black and white as possible. Now let's get right into it. Our first prediction, we're going to go run into spending, something that ETR surveys for quarterly. And we've reported extensively on this. We're calling for tech spending to increase somewhere around 8% in 2022, we can see there on the slide, Erik, we predicted spending last year would increase by 4% IDC. Last check was came in at five and a half percent. Gardner was somewhat higher, but in general, you know, not too bad, but looking ahead, we're seeing an acceleration from the ETR September surveys, as you can see in the yellow versus the blue bar in this chart, many of the SMBs that were hard hit by the pandemic are picking up spending again. And the ETR data is showing acceleration above the mean for industries like energy, utilities, retail, and services, and also, notably, in the Forbes largest 225 private companies. These are companies like Mars or Koch industries. They're predicting well above average spending for 2022. So Erik, please weigh in here. >> Yeah, a lot to bring up on this one, I'm going to be quick. So 1200 respondents on this, over a third of which were at the C-suite level. So really good data that we brought in, the usual bucket of, you know, fortune 500, global 2000 make up the meat of that median, but it's 8.3% and rising with momentum as we see. What's really interesting right now is that energy and utilities. This is usually like, you know, an orphan stock dividend type of play. You don't see them at the highest point of tech spending. And the reason why right now is really because this state of tech infrastructure in our energy infrastructure needs help. And it's obvious, remember the Florida municipality break reach last year? When they took over the water systems or they had the ability to? And this is a real issue, you know, there's bad nation state actors out there, and I'm no alarmist, but the energy and utility has to spend this money to keep up. It's really important. And then you also hit on the retail consumer. Obviously what's happened, the work from home shift created a shop from home shift, and the trends that are happening right now in retail. If you don't spend and keep up, you're not going to be around much longer. So I think the really two interesting things here to call out are energy utilities, usually a laggard in IT spend and it's leading, and also retail consumer, a lot of changes happening. >> Yeah. Great stuff. I mean, I recall when we entered the pandemic, really ETR was the first to emphasize the impact that work from home was going to have, so I really put a lot of weight on this data. Okay. Our next prediction is we're going to get into security, it's one of our favorite topics. And that is that the number one priority that needs to be addressed by organizations in 2022 is security and you can see, in this slide, the degree to which security is top of mind, relative to some other pretty important areas like cloud, productivity, data, and automation, and some others. Now people may say, "Oh, this is obvious." But I'm going to add some context here, Erik, and then bring you in. First, organizations, they don't have unlimited budgets. And there are a lot of competing priorities for dollars, especially with the digital transformation mandate. And depending on the size of the company, this data will vary. For example, while security is still number one at the largest public companies, and those are of course of the biggest spenders, it's not nearly as pronounced as it is on average, or in, for example, mid-sized companies and government agencies. And this is because midsized companies or smaller companies, they don't have the resources that larger companies do. Larger companies have done a better job of securing their infrastructure. So these mid-size firms are playing catch up and the data suggests cyber is even a bigger priority there, gaps that they have to fill, you know, going forward. And that's why we think there's going to be more demand for MSSPs, managed security service providers. And we may even see some IPO action there. And then of course, Erik, you and I have talked about events like the SolarWinds Hack, there's more ransomware attacks, other vulnerabilities. Just recently, like Log4j in December. All of this has heightened concerns. Now I want to talk a little bit more about how we measure this, you know, relatively, okay, it's an obvious prediction, but let's stick our necks out a little bit. And so in addition to the rise of managed security services, we're calling for M&A and/or IPOs, we've specified some names here on this chart, and we're also pointing to the digital supply chain as an area of emphasis. Again, Log4j really shone that under a light. And this is going to help the likes of Auth0, which is now Okta, SailPoint, which is called out on this chart, and some others. We're calling some winners in end point security. Erik, you're going to talk about sort of that lifecycle, that transformation that we're seeing, that migration to new endpoint technologies that are going to benefit from this reset refresh cycle. So Erik, weigh in here, let's talk about some of the elements of this prediction and some of the names on that chart. >> Yeah, certainly. I'm going to start right with Log4j top of mind. And the reason why is because we're seeing a real paradigm shift here where things are no longer being attacked at the network layer, they're being attacked at the application layer, and in the application stack itself. And that is a huge shift left. And that's taking in DevSecOps now as a real priority in 2022. That's a real paradigm shift over the last 20 years. That's not where attacks used to come from. And this is going to have a lot of changes. You called out a bunch of names in there that are, they're either going to work. I would add to that list Wiz. I would add Orca Security. Two names in our emerging technology study, in addition to the ones you added that are involved in cloud security and container security. These names are either going to get gobbled up. So the traditional legacy names are going to have to start writing checks and, you know, legacy is not fair, but they're in the data center, right? They're, on-prem, they're not cloud native. So these are the names that money is going to be flowing to. So they're either going to get gobbled up, or we're going to see some IPO's. And on the other thing I want to talk about too, is what you mentioned. We have CrowdStrike on that list, We have SentinalOne on the list. Everyone knows them. Our data was so strong on Tanium that we actually went positive for the first time just today, just this morning, where that was released. The trifecta of these are so important because of what you mentioned, under resourcing. We can't have security just tell us when something happens, it has to automate, and it has to respond. So in this next generation of EDR and XDR, an automated response has to happen because people are under-resourced, salaries are really high, there's a skill shortage out there. Security has to become responsive. It can't just monitor anymore. >> Yeah. Great. And we should call out too. So we named some names, Snyk, Aqua, Arctic Wolf, Lacework, Netskope, Illumio. These are all sort of IPO, or possibly even M&A candidates. All right. Our next prediction goes right to the way we work. Again, something that ETR has been on for awhile. We're calling for a major rethink in remote work for 2022. We had predicted last year that by the end of 2021, there'd be a larger return to the office with the norm being around a third of workers permanently remote. And of course the variants changed that equation and, you know, gave more time for people to think about this idea of hybrid work and that's really come in to focus. So we're predicting that is going to overtake fully remote as the dominant work model with only about a third of the workers back in the office full-time. And Erik, we expect a somewhat lower percentage to be fully remote. It's now sort of dipped under 30%, at around 29%, but it's still significantly higher than the historical average of around 15 to 16%. So still a major change, but this idea of hybrid and getting hybrid right, has really come into focus. Hasn't it? >> Yeah. It's here to stay. There's no doubt about it. We started this in March of 2020, as soon as the virus hit. This is the 10th iteration of the survey. No one, no one ever thought we'd see a number where only 34% of people were going to be in office permanently. That's a permanent number. They're expecting only a third of the workers to ever come back fully in office. And against that, there's 63% that are saying their permanent workforce is going to be either fully remote or hybrid. And this, I can't really explain how big of a paradigm shift this is. Since the start of the industrial revolution, people leave their house and go to work. Now they're saying that's not going to happen. The economic impact here is so broad, on so many different areas And, you know, the reason is like, why not? Right? The productivity increase is real. We're seeing the productivity increase. Enterprises are spending on collaboration tools, productivity tools, We're seeing an increased perception in productivity of their workforce. And the CFOs can cut down an expense item. I just don't see a reason why this would end, you know, I think it's going to continue. And I also want to point out these results, as high as they are, were before the Omicron wave hit us. I can only imagine what these results would have been if we had sent the survey out just two or three weeks later. >> Yeah. That's a great point. Okay. Next prediction, we're going to look at the supply chain, specifically in how it's affecting some of the hardware spending and cloud strategies in the future. So in this chart, ETRS buyers, have you experienced problems procuring hardware as a result of supply chain issues? And, you know, despite the fact that some companies are, you know, I would call out Dell, for example, doing really well in terms of delivering, you can see that in the numbers, it's pretty clear, there's been an impact. And that's not not an across the board, you know, thing where vendors are able to deliver, especially acute in PCs, but also pronounced in networking, also in firewall servers and storage. And what's interesting is how companies are responding and reacting. So first, you know, I'm going to call the laptop and PC demand staying well above pre-COVID norms. It had peaked in 2012. Pre-pandemic it kept dropping and dropping and dropping, in terms of, you know, unit volume, where the market was contracting. And we think can continue to grow this year in double digits in 2022. But what's interesting, Erik, is when you survey customers, is despite the difficulty they're having in procuring network hardware, there's as much of a migration away from existing networks to the cloud. You could probably comment on that. Their networks are more fossilized, but when it comes to firewalls and servers and storage, there's a much higher propensity to move to the cloud. 30% of customers that ETR surveyed will replace security appliances with cloud services and 41% and 34% respectively will move to cloud compute and storage in 2022. So cloud's relentless march on traditional on-prem models continues. Erik, what do you make of this data? Please weigh in on this prediction. >> As if we needed another reason to go to the cloud. Right here, here it is yet again. So this was added to the survey by client demand. They were asking about the procurement difficulties, the supply chain issues, and how it was impacting our community. So this is the first time we ran it. And it really was interesting to see, you know, the move there. And storage particularly I found interesting because it correlated with a huge jump that we saw on one of our vendor names, which was Rubrik, had the highest net score that it's ever had. So clearly we're seeing some correlation with some of these names that are there, you know, really well positioned to take storage, to take data into the cloud. So again, you didn't need another reason to, you know, hasten this digital transformation, but here we are, we have it yet again, and I don't see it slowing down anytime soon. >> You know, that's a really good point. I mean, it's not necessarily bad news for the... I mean, obviously you wish that it had no change, would be great, but things, you know, always going to change. So we'll talk about this a little bit later when we get into the Supercloud conversation, but this is an opportunity for people who embrace the cloud. So we'll come back to that. And I want to hang on cloud a bit and share some recent projections that we've made. The next prediction is the big four cloud players are going to surpass 167 billion, an IaaS and PaaS revenue in 2022. We track this. Observers of this program know that we try to create an apples to apples comparison between AWS, Azure, GCP and Alibaba in IaaS and PaaS. So we're calling for 38% revenue growth in 2022, which is astounding for such a massive market. You know, AWS is probably not going to hit a hundred billion dollar run rate, but they're going to be close this year. And we're going to get there by 2023, you know they're going to surpass that. Azure continues to close the gap. Now they're about two thirds of the size of AWS and Google, we think is going to surpass Alibaba and take the number three spot. Erik, anything you'd like to add here? >> Yeah, first of all, just on a sector level, we saw our sector, new survey net score on cloud jumped another 10%. It was already really high at 48. Went up to 53. This train is not slowing down anytime soon. And we even added an edge compute type of player, like CloudFlare into our cloud bucket this year. And it debuted with a net score of almost 60. So this is really an area that's expanding, not just the big three, but everywhere. We even saw Oracle and IBM jump up. So even they're having success, taking some of their on-prem customers and then selling them to their cloud services. This is a massive opportunity and it's not changing anytime soon, it's going to continue. >> And I think the operative word there is opportunity. So, you know, the next prediction is something that we've been having fun with and that's this Supercloud becomes a thing. Now, the reason I say we've been having fun is we put this concept of Supercloud out and it's become a bit of a controversy. First, you know, what the heck's the Supercloud right? It's sort of a buzz-wordy term, but there really is, we believe, a thing here. We think there needs to be a rethinking or at least an evolution of the term multi-cloud. And what we mean is that in our view, you know, multicloud from a vendor perspective was really cloud compatibility. It wasn't marketed that way, but that's what it was. Either a vendor would containerize its legacy stack, shove it into the cloud, or a company, you know, they'd do the work, they'd build a cloud native service on one of the big clouds and they did do it for AWS, and then Azure, and then Google. But there really wasn't much, if any, leverage across clouds. Now from a buyer perspective, we've always said multicloud was a symptom of multi-vendor, meaning I got different workloads, running in different clouds, or I bought a company and they run on Azure, and I do a lot of work on AWS, but generally it wasn't necessarily a prescribed strategy to build value on top of hyperscale infrastructure. There certainly was somewhat of a, you know, reducing lock-in and hedging the risk. But we're talking about something more here. We're talking about building value on top of the hyperscale gift of hundreds of billions of dollars in CapEx. So in addition, we're not just talking about transforming IT, which is what the last 10 years of cloud have been like. And, you know, doing work in the cloud because it's cheaper or simpler or more agile, all of those things. So that's beginning to change. And this chart shows some of the technology vendors that are leaning toward this Supercloud vision, in our view, building on top of the hyperscalers that are highlighted in red. Now, Jerry Chan at Greylock, they wrote a piece called Castles in the Cloud. It got our thinking going, and he and the team at Greylock, they're building out a database of all the cloud services and all the sub-markets in cloud. And that got us thinking that there's a higher level of abstraction coalescing in the market, where there's tight integration of services across clouds, but the underlying complexity is hidden, and there's an identical experience across clouds, and even, in my dreams, on-prem for some platforms, so what's new or new-ish and evolving are things like location independence, you've got to include the edge on that, metadata services to optimize locality of reference and data source awareness, governance, privacy, you know, application independent and dependent, actually, recovery across clouds. So we're seeing this evolve. And in our view, the two biggest things that are new are the technology is evolving, where you're seeing services truly integrate cross-cloud. And the other big change is digital transformation, where there's this new innovation curve developing, and it's not just about making your IT better. It's about SaaS-ifying and automating your entire company workflows. So Supercloud, it's not just a vendor thing to us. It's the evolution of, you know, the, the Marc Andreessen quote, "Every company will be a SaaS company." Every company will deliver capabilities that can be consumed as cloud services. So Erik, the chart shows spending momentum on the y-axis and net score, or presence in the ETR data center, or market share on the x-axis. We've talked about snowflake as the poster child for this concept where the vision is you're in their cloud and sharing data in that safe place. Maybe you could make some comments, you know, what do you think of this Supercloud concept and this change that we're sensing in the market? >> Well, I think you did a great job describing the concept. So maybe I'll support it a little bit on the vendor level and then kind of give examples of the ones that are doing it. You stole the lead there with Snowflake, right? There is no better example than what we've seen with what Snowflake can do. Cross-portability in the cloud, the ability to be able to be, you know, completely agnostic, but then build those services on top. They're better than anything they could offer. And it's not just there. I mean, you mentioned edge compute, that's a whole nother layer where this is coming in. And CloudFlare, the momentum there is out of control. I mean, this is a company that started off just doing CDN and trying to compete with Okta Mite. And now they're giving you a full soup to nuts with security and actual edge compute layer, but it's a fantastic company. What they're doing, it's another great example of what you're seeing here. I'm going to call out HashiCorp as well. They're more of an infrastructure services, a little bit more of an open-source freemium model, but what they're doing as well is completely cloud agnostic. It's dynamic. It doesn't care if you're in a container, it doesn't matter where you are. They recently IPO'd and they're down 25%, but their data looks so good across both of our emerging technology and TISA survey. It's certainly another name that's playing on this. And another one that we mentioned as well is Rubrik. If you need storage, compute, and in the cloud layer and you need to be agnostic to it, they're another one that's really playing in this space. So I think it's a great concept you're bringing up. I think it's one that's here to stay and there's certainly a lot of vendors that fit into what you're describing. >> Excellent. Thank you. All right, let's shift to data. The next prediction, it might be a little tough to measure. Before I said we're trying to be a little black and white here, but it relates to Data Mesh, which is, the ideas behind that term were created by Zhamak Dehghani of ThoughtWorks. And we see Data Mesh is really gaining momentum in 2022, but it's largely going to be, we think, confined to a more narrow scope. Now, the impetus for change in data architecture in many companies really stems from the fact that their Hadoop infrastructure really didn't solve their data problems and they struggle to get more value out of their data investments. Data Mesh prescribes a shift to a decentralized architecture in domain ownership of data and a shift to data product thinking, beyond data for analytics, but data products and services that can be monetized. Now this a very powerful in our view, but they're difficult for organizations to get their heads around and further decentralization creates the need for a self-service platform and federated data governance that can be automated. And not a lot of standards around this. So it's going to take some time. At our power panel a couple of weeks ago on data management, Tony Baer predicted a backlash on Data Mesh. And I don't think it's going to be so much of a backlash, but rather the adoption will be more limited. Most implementations we think are going to use a starting point of AWS and they'll enable domains to access and control their own data lakes. And while that is a very small slice of the Data Mesh vision, I think it's going to be a starting point. And the last thing I'll say is, this is going to take a decade to evolve, but I think it's the right direction. And whether it's a data lake or a data warehouse or a data hub or an S3 bucket, these are really, the concept is, they'll eventually just become nodes on the data mesh that are discoverable and access is governed. And so the idea is that the stranglehold that the data pipeline and process and hyper-specialized roles that they have on data agility is going to evolve. And decentralized architectures and the democratization of data will eventually become a norm for a lot of different use cases. And Erik, I wonder if you'd add anything to this. >> Yeah. There's a lot to add there. The first thing that jumped out to me was that that mention of the word backlash you said, and you said it's not really a backlash, but what it could be is these are new words trying to solve an old problem. And I do think sometimes the industry will notice that right away and maybe that'll be a little pushback. And the problems are what you already mentioned, right? We're trying to get to an area where we can have more assets in our data site, more deliverable, and more usable and relevant to the business. And you mentioned that as self-service with governance laid on top. And that's really what we're trying to get to. Now, there's a lot of ways you can get there. Data fabric is really the technical aspect and data mesh is really more about the people, the process, and the governance, but the two of those need to meet, in order to make that happen. And as far as tools, you know, there's even cataloging names like Informatica that play in this, right? Istio plays in this, Snowflake plays in this. So there's a lot of different tools that will support it. But I think you're right in calling out AWS, right? They have AWS Lake, they have AWS Glue. They have so much that's trying to drive this. But I think the really important thing to keep here is what you said. It's going to be a decade long journey. And by the way, we're on the shoulders of giants a decade ago that have even gotten us to this point to talk about these new words because this has been an ongoing type of issue, but ultimately, no matter which vendors you use, this is going to come down to your data governance plan and the data literacy in your business. This is really about workflows and people as much as it is tools. So, you know, the new term of data mesh is wonderful, but you still have to have the people and the governance and the processes in place to get there. >> Great, thank you for that, Erik. Some great points. All right, for the next prediction, we're going to shine the spotlight on two of our favorite topics, Snowflake and Databricks, and the prediction here is that, of course, Databricks is going to IPO this year, as expected. Everybody sort of expects that. And while, but the prediction really is, well, while these two companies are facing off already in the market, they're also going to compete with each other for M&A, especially as Databricks, you know, after the IPO, you're going to have, you know, more prominence and a war chest. So first, these companies, they're both looking pretty good, the same XY graph with spending velocity and presence and market share on the horizontal axis. And both Snowflake and Databricks are well above that magic 40% red dotted line, the elevated line, to us. And for context, we've included a few other firms. So you can see kind of what a good position these two companies are really in, especially, I mean, Snowflake, wow, it just keeps moving to the right on this horizontal picture, but maintaining the next net score in the Y axis. Amazing. So, but here's the thing, Databricks is using the term Lakehouse implying that it has the best of data lakes and data warehouses. And Snowflake has the vision of the data cloud and data sharing. And Snowflake, they've nailed analytics, and now they're moving into data science in the domain of Databricks. Databricks, on the other hand, has nailed data science and is moving into the domain of Snowflake, in the data warehouse and analytics space. But to really make this seamless, there has to be a semantic layer between these two worlds and they're either going to build it or buy it or both. And there are other areas like data clean rooms and privacy and data prep and governance and machine learning tooling and AI, all that stuff. So the prediction is they'll not only compete in the market, but they'll step up and in their competition for M&A, especially after the Databricks IPO. We've listed some target names here, like Atscale, you know, Iguazio, Infosum, Habu, Immuta, and I'm sure there are many, many others. Erik, you care to comment? >> Yeah. I remember a year ago when we were talking Snowflake when they first came out and you, and I said, "I'm shocked if they don't use this war chest of money" "and start going after more" "because we know Slootman, we have so much respect for him." "We've seen his playbook." And I'm actually a little bit surprised that here we are, at 12 months later, and he hasn't spent that money yet. So I think this prediction's just spot on. To talk a little bit about the data side, Snowflake is in rarefied air. It's all by itself. It is the number one net score in our entire TISA universe. It is absolutely incredible. There's almost no negative intentions. Global 2000 organizations are increasing their spend on it. We maintain our positive outlook. It's really just, you know, stands alone. Databricks, however, also has one of the highest overall net sentiments in the entire universe, not just its area. And this is the first time we're coming up positive on this name as well. It looks like it's not slowing down. Really interesting comment you made though that we normally hear from our end-user commentary in our panels and our interviews. Databricks is really more used for the data science side. The MLAI is where it's best positioned in our survey. So it might still have some catching up to do to really have that caliber of usability that you know Snowflake is seeing right now. That's snowflake having its own marketplace. There's just a lot more to Snowflake right now than there is Databricks. But I do think you're right. These two massive vendors are sort of heading towards a collision course, and it'll be very interesting to see how they deploy their cash. I think Snowflake, with their incredible management and leadership, probably will make the first move. >> Well, I think you're right on that. And by the way, I'll just add, you know, Databricks has basically said, hey, it's going to be easier for us to come from data lakes into data warehouse. I'm not sure I buy that. I think, again, that semantic layer is a missing ingredient. So it's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out. And to your point, you know, Snowflake's got the war chest, they got the momentum, they've got the public presence now since November, 2020. And so, you know, they're probably going to start making some aggressive moves. Anyway, next prediction is something, Erik, that you and I have talked about many, many times, and that is observability. I know it's one of your favorite topics. And we see this world screaming for more consolidation it's going all in on cloud native. These legacy stacks, they're fighting to stay relevant, but the direction is pretty clear. And the same XY graph lays out the players in the field, with some of the new entrants that we've also highlighted, like Observe and Honeycomb and ChaosSearch that we've talked about. Erik, we put a big red target around Splunk because everyone wants their gold. So please give us your thoughts. >> Oh man, I feel like I've been saying negative things about Splunk for too long. I've got a bad rap on this name. The Splunk shareholders come after me all the time. Listen, it really comes down to this. They're a fantastic company that was designed to do logging and monitoring and had some great tool sets around what you could do with it. But they were designed for the data center. They were designed for prem. The world we're in now is so dynamic. Everything I hear from our end user community is that all net new workloads will be going to cloud native players. It's that simple. So Splunk has entrenched. It's going to continue doing what it's doing and it does it really, really well. But if you're doing something new, the new workloads are going to be in a dynamic environment and that's going to go to the cloud native players. And in our data, it is extremely clear that that means Datadog and Elastic. They are by far number one and two in net score, increase rates, adoption rates. It's not even close. Even New Relic actually is starting to, you know, entrench itself really well. We saw New Relic's adoption's going up, which is super important because they went to that freemium model, you know, to try to get their little bit of an entrenched customer base and that's working as well. And then you made a great list here, of all the new entrants, but it goes beyond this. There's so many more. In our emerging technology survey, we're seeing Century, Catchpoint, Securonix, Lucid Works. There are so many options in this space. And let's not forget, the biggest data that we're seeing is with Grafana. And Grafana labs as yet to turn on their enterprise. Elastic did it, why can't Grafana labs do it? They have an enterprise stack. So when you look at how crowded this space is, there has to be consolidation. I recently hosted a panel and every single guy on that panel said, "Please give me a consolidation." Because they're the end users trying to actually deploy these and it's getting a little bit confusing. >> Great. Thank you for that. Okay. Last prediction. Erik, might be a little out of your wheelhouse, but you know, you might have some thoughts on it. And that's a hybrid events become the new digital model and a new category in 2022. You got these pure play digital or virtual events. They're going to take a back seat to in-person hybrids. The virtual experience will eventually give way to metaverse experiences and that's going to take some time, but the physical hybrid is going to drive it. And metaverse is ultimately going to define the virtual experience because the virtual experience today is not great. Nobody likes virtual. And hybrid is going to become the business model. Today's pure virtual experience has to evolve, you know, theCUBE first delivered hybrid mid last decade, but nobody really wanted it. We did Mobile World Congress last summer in Barcelona in an amazing hybrid model, which we're showing in some of the pictures here. Alex, if you don't mind bringing that back up. And every physical event that we're we're doing now has a hybrid and virtual component, including the pre-records. You can see in our studios, you see that the green screen. I don't know. Erik, what do you think about, you know, the Zoom fatigue and all this. I know you host regular events with your round tables, but what are your thoughts? >> Well, first of all, I think you and your company here have just done an amazing job on this. So that's really your expertise. I spent 20 years of my career hosting intimate wall street idea dinners. So I'm better at navigating a wine list than I am navigating a conference floor. But I will say that, you know, the trend just goes along with what we saw. If 35% are going to be fully remote. If 70% are going to be hybrid, then our events are going to be as well. I used to host round table dinners on, you know, one or two nights a week. Now those have gone virtual. They're now panels. They're now one-on-one interviews. You know, we do chats. We do submitted questions. We do what we can, but there's no reason that this is going to change anytime soon. I think you're spot on here. >> Yeah. Great. All right. So there you have it, Erik and I, Listen, we always love the feedback. Love to know what you think. Thank you, Erik, for your partnership, your collaboration, and love doing these predictions with you. >> Yeah. I always enjoy them too. And I'm actually happy. Last year you made us do a baker's dozen, so thanks for keeping it to 10 this year. >> (laughs) We've got a lot to say. I know, you know, we cut out. We didn't do much on crypto. We didn't really talk about SaaS. I mean, I got some thoughts there. We didn't really do much on containers and AI. >> You want to keep going? I've got another 10 for you. >> RPA...All right, we'll have you back and then let's do that. All right. All right. Don't forget, these episodes are all available as podcasts, wherever you listen, all you can do is search Breaking Analysis podcast. Check out ETR's website at etr.plus, they've got a new website out. It's the best data in the industry, and we publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can always reach out on email, David.Vellante@siliconangle.com I'm @DVellante on Twitter. Comment on our LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for the Cube Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, stay safe, be well. And we'll see you next time. (mellow music)

>> From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto and Boston, Bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR. This is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> Recent survey data from ETR shows that enterprise tech spending is tracking with projected US GDP growth at six to 7% this year. Many markers continue to point the way to a strong recovery, including hiring trends and the loosening of frozen IT Project budgets. However skills shortages are blocking progress at some companies which bodes well for an increased reliance on external IT services. Moreover, while there's much talk about the rotation out of work from home plays and stocks such as video conferencing, VDI, and other remote worker tech, we see organizations still trying to figure out the ideal balance between funding headquarter investments that have been neglected and getting hybrid work right. In particular, the talent gap combined with a digital mandate, means companies face some tough decisions as to how to fund the future while serving existing customers and transforming culturally. Hello everyone, and welcome to this week's Wikibon CUBE's Insights powered by ETR. In this "Breaking Analysis", we welcome back Erik Porter Bradley of ETR who will share fresh data, perspectives and insights from the latest survey data. Erik, great to see you. Welcome. >> Thank you very much, Dave. Always good to see you and happy to be on the show again. >> Okay, we're going to share some macro data and then we're going to dig into some highlights from ETR's most recent March COVID survey and also the latest April data. So Erik, the first chart that we want to show, it shows CIO and IT buyer responses to expected IT spend for each quarter of 2021 versus 2020, and you can see here a steady quarterly improvement. Erik, what are the key takeaways, from your perspective? >> Sure, well, first of all, for everyone out there, this particular survey had a record-setting number of participation. We had a 1,500 IT decision makers participate and we had over half of the Fortune 500 and over a fifth of the Global 1000. So it was a really good survey. This is seventh iteration of the COVID Impact Survey specifically, and this is going to transition to an overlarge macro survey going forward so we can continue it. And you're 100% right, what we've been tracking here since March of last year was, how is spending being impacted because of COVID? Where is it shifting? And what we're seeing now finally is that there is a real re-acceleration in spend. I know we've been a little bit more cautious than some of the other peers out there that just early on slapped an eight or a 9% number, but what we're seeing is right now, it's at a midpoint of over six, about 6.7% and that is accelerating. So, we are still hopeful that that will continue, and really, that spending is going to be in the second half of the year. As you can see on the left part of this chart that we're looking at, it was about 1.7% versus 3% for Q1 spending year-over-year. So that is starting to accelerate through the back half. >> I think it's prudent to be cautious (indistinct) 'cause normally you'd say, okay, tech is going to grow a couple of points higher than GDP, but it's really so hard to predict this year. Okay, the next chart here that we want to show you is we asked respondents to indicate what strategies they're employing in the short term as a result of coronavirus and you can see a few things that I'll call out and then I'll ask Erik to chime in. First, there's been no meaningful change of course, no surprise in tactics like remote work and holding travel, however, we're seeing very positive trends in other areas trending downward, like hiring freezes and freezing IT deployments, a downward trend in layoffs, and we also see an increase in the acceleration of new IT deployments and in hiring. Erik, what are your key takeaways? >> Well, first of all, I think it's important to point out here that we're also capturing that people believe remote work productivity is still increasing. Now, the trajectory might be coming down a little bit, but that is really key, I think, to the backdrop of what's happening here. So people have a perception that productivity of remote work is better than hybrid work and that's from the IT decision makers themselves, but what we're seeing here is that, most importantly, these organizations are citing plans to increase hiring, and that's something that I think is really important to point out. It's showing a real following, and to your point right in the beginning of the intro, we are seeing deployments stabilize versus prior survey levels, which means early on, they had no plans to launch new tech deployments, then they said, "Nope, we're going to start." and now that stalling, and I think it's exactly right, what you said, is there's an IT skills shortage. So people want to continue to do IT deployments 'cause they have to support work from home and a hybrid back return to the office, but they just don't have the skills to do so, and I think that's really probably the most important takeaway from this chart, is that stalling and to really ask why it's stalling. >> Yeah, so we're going to get into that for sure, and I think that's a really key point, is that accelerating IT deployments, it looks like it's hit a wall in the survey, but before we get deep into the skills, let's take a look at this next chart, and we're asking people here how our return to the new normal, if you will, and back to offices is going to change spending with on-prem architectures and applications. And so the first two bars, they're Cloud-friendly, if you add them up, it's 63% of the respondents, say that either they'll stay in the Cloud for the most part, or they're going to lower their on-prem spend when they go back to the office. The next three bars are on-prem friendly. If you add those up it's 29% of the respondents say their on-prem spend is going to bounce back to pre-COVID levels or actually increase, and of course, 12% of that number, by the way, say they've never altered their on-prem spend. So Erik, no surprise, but this bodes well for Cloud, but isn't it also a positive for on-prem? We've had this dual funding premise, meaning Cloud continues to grow, but neglected data center spend also gets a boost. What's your thoughts? >> Really, it's interesting. It's people are spending on all fronts. You and I were talking in the prep, it's like we're in battle and I've got naval, I've got air, I've got land, I've got to spend on Cloud and digital transformation, but I also have to spend for on-prem. The hybrid work is here and it needs to be supported. So this is spending is going to increase. When you look at this chart, you're going to see though, that roughly 36% of all respondents say that their spending is going to remain mostly on Cloud. So that is still the clear direction, digital transformation is still happening, COVID accelerated it greatly, you and I, as journalists and researchers already know this is where the puck is going, but spend has always lagged a little bit behind 'cause it just takes some time to get there. Inversely, 27% said that their on-prem spending will decrease. So when you look at those two, I still think that the trend is the friend for Cloud spending, even though, yes, they do have to continue spending on hybrid, some of it's been neglected, there are refresh cycles coming up, so, overall it just points to more and more spending right now. It really does seem to be a very strong backdrop for IT growth. >> So I want to talk a little bit about the ETR taxonomy before we bring up the next chart. We get a lot of questions about this, and of course, when you do a massive survey like you're doing, you have to have consistency for time series, so you have to really think through what the buckets look like, if you will. So this next chart takes a look at the ETR taxonomy and it breaks it down into simple-to-understand terms. So the green is the portion of spending on a vendor's tech within a category that is accelerating, and the red is the portion that is decelerating. So Erik, what are the key messages in this data? >> Well, first of all, Dave, thank you so much for pointing that out. We used to do, just what we call a Net score. It's a proprietary formula that we use to determine the overall velocity of spending. Some people found it confusing. Our data scientists decided to break this sector, break down into what you said, which is really more of a mode analysis. In that sector, how many of the vendors are increasing versus decreasing? So again, I just appreciate you bringing that up and allowing us to explain the reasoning behind our analysis there. But what we're seeing here goes back to something you and I did last year when we did our predictions, and that was that IT services and consulting was going to have a true rebound in 2021, and that's what this is showing right here. So in this chart, you're going to see that consulting and services are really continuing their recovery, 2020 had a lot of the clients and they have the biggest sector year-over-year acceleration sector wise. The other thing to point out on this, which we'll get to again later, is that the inverse analysis is true for video conferencing. We will get to that, so I'm going to leave a little bit of ammunition behind for that one, but what we're seeing here is IT consulting services being the real favorable and video conferencing having a little bit more trouble. >> Great, okay, and then let's take a look at that services piece, and this next chart really is a drill down into that space and emphasizes, Erik, what you were just talking about. And we saw this in IBM's earnings, where still more than 60% of IBM's business comes from services and the company beat earnings, in part, due to services outperforming expectations, I think it had a somewhat easier compare and some of this pent-up demand that we've been talking about bodes well for IBM and other services companies, it's not just IBM, right, Erik? >> No, it's not, but again, I'm going to point out that you and I did point out IBM in our predictions when we did in late December, so, it is nice to see. One of the reasons we don't have a more favorable rating on IBM at the moment is because they are in the process of spinning out this large unit, and so there's a little bit of a corporate action there that keeps us off on the sideline. But I would also want to point out here, Tata, Infosys and Cognizant 'cause they're seeing year-over-year acceleration in both IT consulting and outsourced IT services. So we break those down separately and those are the three names that are seeing acceleration in both of those. So again, at the Tata, Infosys and Cognizant are all looking pretty well positioned as well. >> So we've been talking a little bit about this skills shortage, and this is what's, I think, so hard for forecasters, is that in the one hand, There's a lot of pent up demand, Scott Gottlieb said it's like Woodstock coming out of the COVID, but on the other hand, if you have a talent gap, you've got to rely on external services. So there's a learning curve, there's a ramp up, it's an external company, and so it takes time to put those together. So this data that we're going to show you next, is really important in my view and ties what we were saying at the top. It asks respondents to comment on their staffing plans. The light blue is "We're increasing staff", the gray is "No change" and the magenta or whatever, whatever color that is that sort of purplish color, anyway, that color is decreasing, and the picture is very positive across the board. Full-time staff, offshoring, contract employees, outsourced professional services, all up trending upwards, and this Erik is more evidence of the services bounce back. >> Yeah, it's certainly, yes, David, and what happened is when we caught this trend, we decided to go one level deeper and say, all right, we're seeing this, but we need to know why, and that's what we always try to do here. Data will tell you what's happening, it doesn't always tell you why, and that's one of the things that ETR really tries to dig in with through the insights, interviews panels, and also going direct with these more custom survey questions. So in this instance, I think the real takeaway is that 30% of the respondents said that their outsourced and managed services are going to increase over the next three months. That's really powerful, that's a large portion of organizations in a very short time period. So we're capturing that this acceleration is happening right now and it will be happening in real time, and I don't see it slowing down. You and I are speaking about we have to increase Cloud spend, we have to increase hybrid spend, there are refresh cycles coming up, and there's just a real skills shortage. So this is a long-term setup that bodes very well for IT services and consulting. >> You know, Erik, when I came out of college, somebody told me, "Read, read, read, read as much as you can." And then they said, "Read the Wall Street Journal every day." and so I did it, and I would read the tech magazines and back then it was all paper, and what happens is you begin to connect the dots. And so the reason I bring that up is because I've now taken a bath in the ETR data for the better part of two years and I'm beginning to be able to connect the dots. The data is not always predictive, but many, many times it is. And so this next data gets into the fun stuff where we name names. A lot of times people don't like it because they're either marketing people at organizations, say, "Well, data's wrong." because that's the first thing they do, is attack the data. But you and I know, we've made some really great calls, work from home, for sure, you're talking about the services bounce back. We certainly saw the rise of CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler, well before people were talking about that, same thing with video conferencing. And so, anyway, this is the fun stuff and it looks at positive versus negative sentiment on companies. So first, how does ETR derive this data and how should we interpret it, and what are some of your takeaways? >> Sure, first of all, how we derive the data, are systematic survey responses that we do on a quarterly basis, and we standardize those responses to allow for time series analysis so we can do trend analysis as well. We do find that our data, because it's talking about forward-looking spending intentions, is really more predictive because we're talking about things that might be happening six months, three months in the future, not things that a lot of other competitors and research peers are looking at things that already happened, they're looking in the past, ETR really likes to look into the future and our surveys are set up to do so. So thank you for that question, It's a enjoyable lead in, but to get to the fun stuff, like you said, what we do here is we put ratings on the datasets. I do want to put the caveat out there that our spending intentions really only captures top-line revenue. It is not indicative of profit margin or any other line items, so this is only to be viewed as what we are rating the data set itself, not the company, that's not what we're in the game of doing. So I think that's very important for the marketing and the vendors out there themselves when they take a look at this. We're just talking about what we can control, which is our data. We're going to talk about a few of the names here on this highlighted vendors list. One, we're going to go back to that you and I spoke about, I guess, about six months ago, or maybe even earlier, which was the observability space. You and I were noticing that it was getting very crowded, a lot of new entrants, there was a lot of acquisition from more of the legacy or standard players in the space, and that is continuing. So I think in a minute, we're going to move into that observability space, but what we're seeing there is that it's becoming incredibly crowded and we're possibly seeing signs of them cannibalizing each other. We're also going to move on a little bit into video conferencing, where we're capturing some spend deceleration, and then ultimately, we're going to get into a little bit of a storage refresh cycle and talk about that. But yeah, these are the highlighted vendors for April, we usually do this once a quarter and they do change based on the data, but they're not usually whipsawed around, the data doesn't move that quickly. >> Yeah, so you can see some of the big names in the left-hand side, some of the SAS companies that have momentum. Obviously, ServiceNow has been doing very, very well. We've talked a lot about Snowflake, Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, all very positive, as well as several others. I guess I'd add some things. I mean, I think if thinking about the next decade, it's Cloud, which is not going to be like the same Cloud as the last decade, a lot of machine learning and deep learning and AI and the Cloud is extending to the edge and the data center. Data, obviously, very important, data is decentralized and distributed, so data architectures are changing. A lot of opportunities to connect across Clouds and actually create abstraction layers, and then something that we've been covering a lot is processor performance is actually accelerating relative to Moore's law. It's probably instead of doubling every two years, it's quadrupling every two years, and so that is a huge factor, especially as it relates to powering AI and AI inferencing at the edge. This is a whole new territory, custom Silicon is really becoming in vogue and so something that we're watching very, very closely. >> Yeah, I completely, agree on that and I do think that the next version of Cloud will be very different. Another thing to point out on that too, is you can't do anything that you're talking about without collecting the data and organizations are extremely serious about that now. It seems it doesn't matter what industry they're in, every company is a data company, and that also bodes well for the storage goal. We do believe that there is going to just be a huge increase in the need for storage, and yes, hopefully that'll become portable across multi-Cloud and hybrid as well. >> Now, as Erik said, the ETR data, it's really focused on that top-line spend. So if you look on the right side of that chart, you saw NetApp was kind of negative, was very negative, right? But it is a company that's in transformation now, they've lowered expectations and they've recently beat expectations, that's why the stock has been doing better, but at the macro, from a spending standpoint, it's still stout challenged. So you have big footprint companies like NetApp and Oracle is another one. Oracle's stock is at an all time high, but the spending relative to sort of previous cycles are relative to, like for instance, Snowflake, much, much smaller, not as high growth, but they're managing expectations, they're managing their transition, they're managing profitability. Zoom is another one, Zoom looking negative, but Zoom's got to use its market cap now to transform and increase its TAM. And then Splunk is another one we're going to talk about. Splunk is in transition, it acquired SignalFX, It just brought on this week, Teresa Carlson, who was the head of AWS Public Sector. She's the president and head of sales, so they've got a go-to-market challenge and they brought in Teresa Carlson to really solve that, but Splunk has been trending downward, we called that several quarters ago, Erik, and so I want to bring up the data on Splunk, and this is Splunk, Erik, in analytics, and it's not trending in the right direction. The green is accelerating spend, the red is in the bars is decelerating spend, the top blue line is spending velocity or Net score, and the yellow line is market share or pervasiveness in the dataset. Your thoughts. >> Yeah, first I want to go back. There's a great point, Dave, about our data versus a disconnect from an equity analysis perspective. I used to be an equity analyst, that is not what we do here. And the main word you said is expectations, right? Stocks will trade on how they do compare to the expectations that are set, whether that's buy-side expectations, sell-side expectations or management's guidance themselves. We have no business in tracking any of that, what we are talking about is the top-line acceleration or deceleration. So, that was a great point to make, and I do think it's an important one for all of our listeners out there. Now, to move to Splunk, yes, I've been capturing a lot of negative commentary on Splunk even before the data turns. So this has been a about a year-long, our analysis and review on this name and I'm dating myself here, but I know you and I are both rock and roll fans, so I'm going to point out a Led Zeppelin song and movie, and say that the song remains the same for Splunk. We are just seeing recent spending attentions are taking yet another step down, both from prior survey levels, from year ago levels. This, we're looking at in the analytics sector and spending intentions are decelerating across every single group, and we went to one of our other slide analysis on the ETR+ platform, and you do by customer sub-sample, in analytics, it's dropping in every single vertical. It doesn't matter which one. it's really not looking good, unfortunately, and you had mentioned this is an analytics and I do believe the next slide is an information security. >> Yeah, let's bring that up. >> And unfortunately it's not doing much better. So this is specifically Fortune 500 accounts and information security. There's deep pockets in the Fortune 500, but from what we're hearing in all the insights and interviews and panels that I personally moderate for ETR, people are upset, that they didn't like the strong tactics that Splunk has used on them in the past, they didn't like the ingestion model pricing, the inflexibility, and when alternatives came along, people are willing to look at the alternatives, and that's what we're seeing in both analytics and big data and also for their SIM and security. >> Yeah, so I think again, I pointed Teresa Carlson. She's got a big job, but she's very capable. She's going to meet with a lot of customers, she's a go-to-market pro, she's going to to have to listen hard, and I think you're going to see some changes there. Okay, so sorry, there's more bad news on Splunk. So (indistinct) bring this up is Net score for Splunk and Elastic accounts. This is for analytics, so there's 106 Elastic accounts in the dataset that also have Splunk and it's trending downward for Splunk, that's why it's green for Elastic. And Erik, the important call out from ETR here is how Splunk's performance in Elastic accounts compares with its performance overall. The ELK stack, which obviously Elastic is a big part of that, is causing pain for Splunk, as is Datadog, and you mentioned the pricing issue, well, is it pricing in your assessment or is it more fundamental? >> It's multi-level based on the commentary we get from our ITDMs teams that take the survey. So yes, you did a great job with this analysis. What we're looking at is the spending within shared accounts. So if I have Splunk already, how am I spending? I'm sorry if I have Elastic already, how am I spending on Splunk? And what you're seeing here is it's down to about a 12% Net score, whereas Splunk overall, has a 32% Net score among all of its customers. So what you're seeing there is there is definitely a drain that's happening where Elastic is draining spend from Splunk and usage from them. The reason we used Elastic here is because all observabilities, the whole sector seems to be decelerating. Splunk is decelerating the most, but Elastic is the only one that's actually showing resiliency, so that's why we decided to choose these two, but you pointed out, yes, it's also Datadog. Datadog is Cloud native. They're more dev ops-oriented. They tend to be viewed as having technological lead as compared to Splunk. So a really good point. Dynatrace also is expanding their abilities and Splunk has been making a lot of acquisitions to push their Cloud services, they are also changing their pricing model, right? They're trying to make things a little bit more flexible, moving off ingestion and moving towards consumption. So they are trying, and the new hires, I'm not going to bet against them because the one thing that Splunk has going for them is their market share in our survey, they're still very well entrenched. So they do have a lot of accounts, they have their foothold. So if they can find a way to make these changes, then they will be able to change themselves, but the one thing I got to say across the whole sector is competition is increasing, and it does appear based on commentary and data that they're starting to cannibalize themselves. It really seems pretty hard to get away from that, and you know there are startups in the observability space too that are going to be even more disruptive. >> I think I want to key on the pricing for a moment, and I've been pretty vocal about this. I think the old SAS pricing model where you essentially lock in for a year or two years or three years, pay up front, or maybe pay quarterly if you're lucky, that's a one-way street and I think it's a flawed model. I like what Snowflake's doing, I like what Datadog's doing, look at what Stripe is doing, look at what Twilio is doing, you mentioned it, it's consumption-based pricing, and if you've got a great product, put it out there and damn, the torpedoes, and I think that is a game changer. I look at, for instance, HPE with GreenLake, I look at Dell with Apex, they're trying to mimic that model and apply it to infrastructure, it's much harder with infrastructure 'cause you've got to deploy physical infrastructure, but that is a model that I think is going to change, and I think all of the traditional SAS pricing is going to come under disruption over the next better part of the decades, but anyway, let's move on. We've been covering the APM space pretty extensively, application performance management, and this chart lines up some of the big players here. Comparing Net score or spending momentum from the April 20th survey, the gray is, sorry, the gray is the April 20th survey, the blue is Jan 21 and the yellow is April 21, and not only are Elastic and Datadog doing well relative to Splunk, Erik, but everything is down from last year. So this space, as you point out, is undergoing a transformation. >> Yeah, the pressures are real and it's sort of that perfect storm where it's not only the data that's telling us that, but also the direct feedback we get from the community. Pretty much all the interviews I do, I've done a few panels specifically on this topic, for anyone who wants to dive a little bit deeper. We've had some experts talk about this space and there really is no denying that there is a deceleration in spend and it's happening because that spend is getting spread out among different vendors. People are using a Datadog for certain aspects, they are using Elastic where they can 'cause it's cheaper. They're using Splunk because they have to, but because it's so expensive, they're cutting some of the things that they're putting into Splunk, which is dangerous, particularly on the security side. If I have to decide what to put in and whatnot, that's not really the right way to have security hygiene. So this space is just getting crowded, there's disruptive vendors coming from the emerging space as well, and what you're seeing here is the only bit of positivity is Elastic on a survey-over-survey basis with a slight, slight uptick. Everywhere else, year-over-year and survey-over-survey, it's showing declines, it's just hard to ignore. >> And then you've got Dynatrace who, based on the interviews you do in the (indistinct), one-on-one, or one-on-five, the private interviews that I've been invited to, Dynatrace gets very high scores for their roadmap. You've got New Relic, which has been struggling financially, but they've got a really good product and a purpose-built database just for this APM space, and then of course, you've got Cisco with AppD, which is a strong business for them, and then as you mentioned, you've got startups coming in, you got ChaosSearch, which Ed Walsh is now running, leave the data in place in AWS and really interesting model, Honeycomb is getting really disruptive, Jeremy Burton's company, Observed. So this space is it's becoming jumped ball. >> Yeah, there's a great line that came out of one of them, and that was that the lines are blurring. It used to be that you knew exactly that AppDynamics, what they were doing, it was APM only, or it was logging and monitoring only, and a lot of what I'm hearing from the ITDM experts is that the lines are blurring amongst all of these names. They all have functionality that kind of crosses over each other. And the other interesting thing is it used to be application versus infrastructure monitoring, but as you know, infrastructure is becoming code more and more and more, and as infrastructure becomes code, there's really no difference between application and infrastructure monitoring. So we're seeing a convergence and a blurring of the lines in this space, which really doesn't bode well, and a great point about New Relic, their tech gets good remarks. I just don't know if their enterprise level service and sales is up to snuff right now. As one of my experts said, a CTO of a very large public online hospitality company essentially said that he would be shocked that within 18 months if all of these players are still standalone, that there needs to be some M and A or convergence in this space. >> Okay, now we're going to call out some of the data that really has jumped out to ETR in the latest survey, and some of the names that are getting the most queries from ETR clients, many of which are investor clients. So let's start by having a look at one of the most important and prominent work from home names, Zoom. Let's look at this. Erik is the ride over for Zoom? >> Ah, I've been saying it for a little bit of a time now actually. I do believe it is, and we'll get into it, but again, pointing out, great, Dave, the reason we're presenting today Splunk, Elastic and Zoom, they are the most viewed on the ETR+ platform. Trailing behind that only slightly is F5, I decided not to bring F5 to the table today 'cause we don't have a rating on the data set. So then I went one deep, one below that and it's pure. So the reason we're presenting these to you today is that these are the ones that our clients and our community are most interested in, which is hopefully going to gain interest to your viewers as well. So to get to Zoom, yeah, I call Zoom the pandemic bull market baby. This was really just one that had a meteoric ride. You look back, January in 2020, the stock was at $60 and 10 months later, it was like 580, that's in 10 months. That's cooled down a little bit into the mid-300s, and I believe that cooling down should continue, and the reason why is because we are seeing huge deceleration in our spending intentions. They're hitting all-time lows, it's really just a very ugly dataset. More importantly than the spending intentions, for the first time, we're seeing customer growth in our survey flatten. In the past, we knew that the deceleration of spend was happening, but meanwhile, their new customer growth was accelerating, so it was kind of hard to really make any call based on that. This is the first time we're seeing flattening customer growth trajectory, and that in tandem with just dominance from Microsoft in every sector they're involved in, I don't care if it's IP telephony, productivity apps or the core video conferencing, Microsoft is just dominating. So there's really just no way to ignore this anymore. The data and the commentary state that Zoom is facing some headwinds. >> Well, plus you've pointed out to me that a lot of your private conversations with buyers says that, "Hey, we're, we're using the freebie version of Zoom, and we're not paying them." And that combined with Teams, I mean, it's... I think, look, Zoom, they've got to figure out how to use their elevated market cap to transform and expand their TAM, but let's move on. Here's the data on Pure Storage and we've highlighted a number of times this company is showing elevated spending intentions. Pure announced it's earnings in May, IBM just announced storage, it was way down actually. So still, Pure, more positive, but I'll on that comment in a moment, but what does this data tell you, Erik? >> Yeah, right now we started seeing this data last survey in January, and that was the first time we really went positive on the data set itself, and it's just really continuing. So we're seeing the strongest year-over-year acceleration in the entire survey, which is a really good spot to be. Pure is also a leading position among its sector peers, and the other thing that was pretty interesting from the data set is among all storage players, Pure has the highest positive public Cloud correlation. So what we can do is we can see which respondents are accelerating their public Cloud spend and then cross-reference that with their storage spend and Pure is best positioned. So as you and I both know, digital transformation Cloud spending is increasing, you need to be aligned with that. And among all storage sector peers, Pure is best positioned in all of those, in spending intentions and adoptions and also public Cloud correlation. So yet again, to start another really strong dataset, and I have an anecdote about why this might be happening, because when I saw the data, I started asking in my interviews, what's going on here? And there was one particular person, he was a director of Cloud operations for a very large public tech company. Now, they have hybrid, but their data center is in colo, So they don't own and build their own physical building. He pointed out that during COVID, his company wanted to increase storage, but he couldn't get into his colo center due to COVID restrictions. They weren't allowed. You had 250,000 square feet, right, but you're only allowed to have six people in there. So it's pretty hard to get to your rack and get work done. He said he would buy storage, but then the colo would say, "Hey, you got to get it out of here. It's not even allowed to sit here. We don't want it in our facility." So he has all this pent up demand. In tandem with pent up demand, we have a refresh cycle. The SSD depreciation cycle is ending. SSDs are moving on and we're starting to see a new technology in that space, NVMe sorry, technology increasing in that space. So we have pent up demand and we have new technology and that's really leading to a refresh cycle, and this particular ITDM that I spoke to and many of his peers think this has a long tailwind that storage could be a good sector for some time to come. >> That's really interesting, thank you for that extra metadata. And I want to do a little deeper dive on storage. So here's a look at storage in the industry in context and some of the competitive. I mean, it's been a tough market for the reasons that we've highlighted, Cloud has been eating away that flash headroom. It used to be you'd buy storage to get more spindles and more performance and we're sort of forced to buy more, flash, gave more headroom, but it's interesting what you're saying about the depreciation cycle. So that's good news. So ETR combines, just for people's benefit here, combines primary and secondary storage into a single category. So you have companies like Pure and NetApp, which are really pure play primary storage companies, largely in the sector, along with Veeam, Cohesity and Rubrik, which are kind of secondary data or data protection. So my quick thoughts here that Pure is elevated and remains what I call the one-eyed man in the land of the blind, but that's positive tailwinds there, so that's good news. Rubrik is very elevated but down, it's big competitor, Cohesity is way off its highs, and I have to say to me, Veeam is like the Steady Eddy consistent player here. They just really continue to do well in the data protection business, and the highs are steady, the lows are steady. Dell is also notable, they've been struggling in storage. Their ISG business, which comprises servers and storage, it's been softer in COVID, and during even this new product rollout, so it's notable with this new mid range they have in particular, the uptick in Dell, this survey, because Dell is so large, a small uptick can be very good for Dell. HPE has a big announcement next month in storage, so that might improve based on a product cycle. Of course, the Nimble brand continues to do well, IBM, as I said, just announced a very soft quarter, down double digits again, and they're in a product cycle shift. And NetApp, it looks bad in the ETR data from a spending momentum standpoint, but their management team is transforming the company into a Cloud play, which Erik is why it was interesting that Pure has the greatest momentum in Cloud accounts, so that is sort of striking to me. I would have thought it would be NetApp, so that's something that we want to pay attention to, but I do like a lot of what NetApp is doing, and other than Pure, they're the only big kind of pure play in primary storage. So long-winded, intro there, Erik, but anything you'd add? >> No, actually I appreciate it as long-winded. I'm going to be honest with you, storage is not my best sector as far as a researcher and analyst goes, but I actually think that a lot of what you said is spot on. We do capture a lot of large organizations spend, we don't capture much mid and small, so I think when you're talking about these large, large players like NetApp not looking so good, all I would state is that we are capturing really big organization spending attention, so these are names that should be doing better to be quite honest, in those accounts, and at least according to our data, we're not seeing it in. It's longterm depression, as you can see, NetApp now has a negative spending velocity in this analysis. So, I can go dig around a little bit more, but right now the names that I'm hearing are Pure, Cohesity. I'm hearing a little bit about Hitachi trying to reinvent themselves in the space, but I'll take a wait-and-see approach on that one, but pure Cohesity are the ones I'm hearing a lot from our community. >> So storage is transforming to Cloud as a service. You've seen things like Apex in GreenLake from Dell and HPE and container storage. A little, so not really a lot of people paying attention to it, but Pure bought a company called Portworx which really specializes in container storage, and there's many startups there, they're trying to really change the way. David Flynn, has a startup in that space, he's the guy who started Fusion-io. So a lot of transformations happening here. Okay, I know it's been a long segment, we have to summarize, and let me go through a summary and then I'll give you the last word, Erik. So tech spending appears to be tracking US GDP at 6 to 7%. This talent shortage could be a blocker to accelerating IT deployments, so that's kind of good news actually for services companies. Digital transformation, it remains a priority, and that bodes, well, not only for services, but automation. UiPath went public this week, we profiled that extensively, that went public last Wednesday. Organizations that sit at the top face some tough decisions on how to allocate resources. They're running the business, growing the business, transforming the business, and we're seeing a bifurcation of spending and some residual effects on vendors, and that remains a theme that we're watching. Erik, your final thoughts. >> Yeah, I'm going to go back quickly to just the overall macro spending, 'cause there's one thing I think is interesting to point out and we're seeing a real acceleration among mid and small. So it seems like early on in the COVID recovery or COVID spending, it was the deep pockets that moved first, right? Fortune 500 knew they had to support remote work, they started spending first. Around that in the Fortune 500, we're only seeing about 5% spend, but when you get into mid and small organizations, that's creeping up to eight, nine. So I just think it's important to point out that they're playing catch up right now. I also would point out that this is heavily skewed to North America spending. We're seeing laggards in EMEA, they just don't seem to be spending as much. They're in a very different place in their recovery, and I do think that it's important to point that out. Lastly, I also want to mention, I know you do such a great job on following a lot of the disruptive vendors that you just pointed out, with Pure doing container storage, we also have another bi-annual survey that we do called Emerging Technology, and that's for the private names. That's going to be launching in May, for everyone out there who's interested in not only the disruptive vendors, but also private equity players. Keep an eye out for that. We do that twice a year and that's growing in its respondents as well. And then lastly, one comment, because you mentioned the UiPath IPO, it was really hard for us to sit on the sidelines and not put some sort of rating on their dataset, but ultimately, the data was muted, unfortunately, and when you're seeing this kind of hype into an IPO like we saw with Snowflake, the data was resoundingly strong. We had no choice, but to listen to what the data said for Snowflake, despite the hype. We didn't see that for UiPath and we wanted to, and I'm not making a large call there, but I do think it's interesting to juxtapose the two, that when snowflake was heading to its IPO, the data was resoundingly positive, and for UiPath, we just didn't see that. >> Thank you for that, and Erik, thanks for coming on today. It's really a pleasure to have you, and so really appreciate the collaboration and look forward to doing more of these. >> Yeah, we enjoy the partnership greatly, Dave. We're very happy to have you on the ETR family and looking forward to doing a lot, lot more with you in the future. >> Ditto. Okay, that's it for today. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen. All you have to do is search "Breaking Analysis" podcast, and please subscribe to the series. Check out ETR website it's etr.plus. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You can email me, david.vellante@siliconangle.com, you can DM me on Twitter @dvellante or comment on our LinkedIn posts. I could see you in Clubhouse. This is Dave Vellante for Erik Porter Bradley for the CUBE Insights powered by ETR. Have a great week, stay safe, be well and we'll see you next time. (bright music)