>> Narrator: theCUBE's live coverage is made possible by funding from Dell Technologies. Creating technologies that drive human progress. (bright upbeat music) >> Good morning everyone. Welcome to theCUBE. We are live at MWC '23 in Barcelona, Spain. I'm Lisa Martin, and I'm going to have a great conversation next with our esteemed CUBE analyst, Dave Nicholson. Dave, great to have you here. Great to be working this event with you. >> Good to be here with you, Lisa. >> So there are, good to be here with you and about 80,000 people. >> Dave: That's right. >> Virtually and and physically. And it's jammed in, and this is the most jammed show I've seen in years. >> Dave: It's crazy. >> So much going on in the telecom industry. What are some of your expectations for what you're going to hear and see at this year's event? >> So, I expect to hear a lot about 5G. Specifically 5G private networks, and the disaggregation of the hardware and software stacks that have driven telecom for decades. So we're at this transition into 5G. From a consumer perspective, we feel like, oh well 5G has been around for years. In terms of where it's actually been deployed, we're just at the beginning stages of that. >> Right, right. Talk about the changing of the stack. You know, the disaggregation. Why now is it too late? And what are the advantages? That it's going to enable telcos to move faster, I imagine? >> Yeah, so it's really analogous to what we see in the general IT industry that we cover so much. The move to cloud, sometimes you're gaining performance. You're always gaining agility and flexibility. A big concern of the legacy telecom providers is going to be maintaining availability, reliability against a backdrop of increasing agility in the direction that they want to go. So that's going to be the conversation. It's going to be the old school folks, who are interested in maintaining primarily availability and performance, excuse me, contrasted with the open source, OpenStack providers, who are going to be saying, hey this is a path to the future. Without that path to the future, things will stagnate. >> Talk about some of those OpenStack providers. I imagine those are some of the folks that we know quite well? >> Sure, sure. Yeah, so someone like Dell, for example. They're perfectly positioned at this sort of crossroads, because Dell has been creating "cloud stacks," that will live sometimes on-premises. And those stacks of infrastructure, based on cots, commercial off-the-shelf components, integrated within an ecosystem can live at the edge, at literally the base of transmitter towers. So when you think about this whole concept of RAN or a radio access network, think of a cellular tower with an antenna and a transmitter. The transmitter might live on that tower, or it might live in pieces at the base of the tower. But there's always at that base of the tower, forget about the acronyms, it's a box of stuff, teleco stuff. All of these things historically have been integrated into single packages. >> Right. >> For good reason. >> Right. >> Think back to a mainframe, where it was utterly, absolutely reliable. We moved, in the general IT space, from the era of the mainframe to the world of client server, through virtualization, containerization. That exact transition is happening in the world of telecom right now. >> Why is it finally happening now? It seems a bit late, given that in our consumer lives, we have this expectation that we could be mobile 24 by seven. >> Right. Well it's because, first of all, we get mad if a call doesn't go through. How often, when you make, when you try to make a cellular call or when you try to send a text, how often does it not work? >> I can count on one hand. >> Right, rarely. >> Right. >> Now, you may be in an area that has spotty coverage. But when you're in an area where you have coverage it just works all of the time. And you expect it to work all of the time. And the miracle of the services that have been delivered to us over the last decade has really kind of blunted the need for next generation stuff. Well, we're at this transition point. And 5G as a technology enables so much more bandwidth. Think of it as, you know, throughput bandwidth latency. It allows the kind of performance characteristics so that things can be delivered that couldn't be delivered in the past. Virtual reality, augmented reality. We're already seeing you know 4K data streams to our phones. So, it's sort of lagged because of our expectations for absolute, rock solid, reliability. >> Yeah. >> The technology is ahead of that area now. And so this question is how do you navigate from utter reliability to awesome openness without sacrificing performance and reliability? >> Well, and also from a stack perspective, from looking at desegregation, and the opportunities there are for the telcos, but also the public cloud providers, are they friends, are they foes? What's the relationship like? >> They're going to be frenemies. >> Lisa: Frenemies? >> Yeah, coopetition is going to be the word of the day again. Yeah because when you think of a cloud, most people automatically think off-premises. >> Lisa: Yes. >> Maybe they even think automatically you know, hyper scale or Azure, GCP, AWS. In this case, it really is a question of cloud as an operating model. Cloud facilitating agility, cloud adopting cloud native architecture from a software perspective, so that you can rapidly deploy net new capabilities into an environment. You can't do that with proprietary closed systems that might use a waterfall development process and take years to develop. You and I have covered the Kubernetes world pretty closely. And what's the big thing that we hear constantly? The hunger, the thirst for human resources, >> Right. >> people who can actually work in this world of containerization. >> Yes, yes. >> Well guess what? In the macroeconomic environment, a lot of folks in the IT space have recently been disrupted. This is a place to look, if you have that skillset. Look at the telecom space, because they need people who are forward thinking in the era of cloud. But this concept of cloud is really, it's going to be, the telcos are both competing and partnering with what we think of as the traditional, hyper scale public cloud providers. >> And what do you think, one of the things that we know at MWC '23 is virtually every industry is represented here. Every vertical is here, whether it's a sports arena, or a retail outlet, or a manufacturer. Every organization, every industry needs to have networks that deliver what they need to do but also enable them to move faster and deliver what the end user wants. What are some of the industries that you think are really ripe for this disruption? And the ability to use private 5G networks, for example? >> Well, so it's interesting, you mentioned private 5G networks. I think a good example of the transition that's underway is this, the move to 4K video. So, you get a high definition television. The first time you see a 720p TV, it's like oh my gosh, amazing. Then we get 1080p, then it's 4K. People get 4K TVs, they bring them home, and there's no content. >> No. >> The first content, was it from your cable provider? No. >> Yeah. >> Was it over the air? ABC, NBC, CBS? No, it was YouTube. YouTube delivered the first reliable 4K content, over the internet. Similarly, everything comes to us now to our mobile devices. So we're not accessing the world around us so much from a desktop or even a laptop. It's mobile. So if you want to communicate with a customer, it's mobile. If you're creating a private 5G network, you now are standing something up that is net new in a greenfield environment. And you can deploy agility and functionality that the large scale telecom providers can't, because of the massive investment they might need. So the irony is, you have a factory that sits on 20 acres and you have folks traveling around, if you create a private 5G network, it might become, it might be more feature rich than what your employees are used to being able to access through their personal mobile devices. >> Wow. >> Yeah, because you're starting net new, you have the luxury of starting greenfield, as opposed to the responsibility and legacy for supporting a massive system that exists already. >> So then, what's in it for the existing incumbent telcos from an advantage opportunity perspective? Because you mentioned frenemies, coopetition. >> Right. >> There's irony there, as you talked about. >> Right, well you could look at it as either opportunity or headache. And it's both. Because they have very, very real SLAs that they need to meet. >> Right. >> Very, very real expectations that have been set in terms of reliability, availability, and performance. So they can't slip off of that. Making that transition is, I think going to be driven by economics, because the idea of having things be open means that there's competition for every part of the stack. There will be a critical role for integration vendors. Folks like Dell, and the ecosystems that they're creating around this will be critical, because often you would prefer to have one back to pat or one throat to choke instead of many. So, you still want to have that centralized entity to go to when something goes wrong. >> Right. >> Or when you want to implement something new. So, for the incumbents, it's a classic example of what you do in the face of disruption. How do you leverage technology? In my role as adjunct faculty at the Wharton CTO Academy, we talk about the CTO mindset. And the idea that your role is to leverage technology, in the service of your organization's mission, whatever that organization and mission is. So from a telecom provider perspective, they need to stay on top of this. >> Yes. >> Or they will be disrupted. >> Right. >> It's fascinating to think of how this disruption's taking place. >> Lisa: They have no choice, if they want to survive. >> No, yeah they have no choice. >> Lisa: In the next few years. >> They have no choice, but they'll come along, kicking and screaming. I'm sure if you had someone sitting here in the industry, they'd say, well, no, no, no, no, no. >> Yeah, of course. >> We love it! It's like, yeah, well but you're going to have to make some painful changes to adopt these things. >> What are some of the opportunities for those folks like Dell that you mentioned, in terms of coming in, being able to disrupt that stack, open things up? Great opportunities for the Dells, and other similar organizations to really start gaining a bigger foothold in the telecom industry, I imagine. >> Well, I look at it through the lens of sort of traditional IT and the transitions that we've been watching for the last couple of decades. It's exactly the same. I mean you, there is a parallel. It is like coming out of the mainframe era to the client server era. So, you know, we went in that transition, it was mainframe operating systems, very, very closed systems to more slightly opened. You know, the worlds of SUN and SGI and HP, and the likes, transitioned to kind of Microsoft based software running with like Dell hardware. >> Yeah. >> And, that stack is now getting deployed into one of the remaining legacy environments which is the telco space. So, the opportunity for Dell is pretty massive because on some fronts they're competing with the move to proper off-premises public cloud. >> Right. >> In this case, they are the future for telecom as opposed to sort of representing legacy, compared to some of the other cloud opportunities that are out there. >> So ultimately, what does a modern telecom network look like? I imagine, cloud native? Distributed? >> Yeah, yeah. So, traditionally, like I said, you've got the tower and the transmitters and the computer hardware that's running it. Those are then networked together. So you can sort of think of it as leaves on a twig, on a branch, on a tree. Eventually it gets into a core network, where there is terrestrial line communication and or communication up to satellites. And that's all been humming along just fine, making the transition from 3G to 4G to 5G. But, the real transition from a cloud perspective is this idea that you're taking these proprietary systems, disaggrevating, disaggrevating them and disaggregating them, carving them up into pieces where now you're introducing virtualization. So there's a VMware play here. Some things are virtualized using that stack. I think more often we're going to be talking about containerized and truly cloud native stacks. So instead of having the proprietary stack, where all the hardware and software is designed together. Now you're going to have Dell servers running some execution layer, orchestration layer, for cloud native, containerized applications and microservices. And that's the way things are going to be developed. >> And who, from a stakeholder perspective is involved here? 'Cause one of the things that I'm hearing is with this disaggregation of the staff, which is a huge change, what you're articulated, that's already happened at enterprise IT, change management is a hard thing to do. If they want to be successful, and well not just survive, they want to thrive. I'm just imagining, who are the stakeholders that are involved in having to push those incumbents to make these decisions, to move faster, to become agile, to compete. >> So, I remember when VMware had the problem that anytime they suggested introducing a hypervisor to to virtualize a physical machine and then run software on top or an operating system on top, and then applications, the big question the customer would have was, well is Microsoft going to support that? What if I can't get support from Microsoft? I dunno if I can do this. Within about a year of those conversations taking place, the question was, can I run this in my production environment? So it was, can I get support in my test environment too? Can I please run this in production? >> Yeah. >> And so, there are folks in the kind of legacy telecom world who are going to be afraid. It's, whatever the dynamic is, there is a no one ever got fired for buying from fill in the blank >> Exactly, yep. >> in the telecom space. >> Yeah, yeah. >> Because they would buy a consolidated, aggregated stack. >> Right. >> And, if something went wrong they could say, boom, blame you. And yeah, that stack doesn't lend itself to the kind of pace of change. >> Right. >> So it doesn't necessarily need the same kind of change management. Or at least it's very, very centralized. >> Okay. Okay. >> We're getting into the brave new world of things where if you let them spin out of control, you can have big problems. And that's where the folks like Dell come in, to make sure that yes, disaggregated, yes best of commercial off-the-shelf stuff, but also the best in terms of performance and reliability and availability. >> Yeah. >> So, that's the execution part, you must execute flawlessly. >> It sounds like from a thematic perspective, the theme of MWC '23 is velocity. But it seems like an underlying theme under that, or maybe an overlying theme is disruption. It's going to be so interesting, we're only on day one. We just started our coverage. Four days of wall to wall coverage on theCUBE. Excited to hear what you're excited about, what you learn over the next few days. We get to host some segments together. >> Yeah. >> But it seems like disruption is the overall theme. And it's going to be so interesting to see how this industry evolves, what the opportunities are, what the coopetition opportunities are. We're going to be learning a lot this week. I'm excited. >> Yeah, and what's fascinating to me about this whole thing is we talk about this, all of this tumultuous, disruptive stuff that's happening. For the average consumer, they're never going to be aware of it. >> Nope. >> Dave: They're just going to see services piled on top of services. >> Which is what we want. >> There are billions of people with mobile devices and the hundreds of billions, I don't know, trillions I guess at some point of connected devices at the edge. >> Lisa: Yes, yes. >> The whole concept of the internet of things. We'll sort of be blissfully unaware of what's happening at the middle. But there's a lot of action there. So we're going to be focusing on that action that's going on. In, you know, in in the middle of it. >> Yeah. >> But there's also some cool consumer stuff out here. >> There is. >> I know I'm going to be checking out the augmented reality and virtual reality stuff. >> Yeah, yeah. Well it's all about that customer experience. We expect things right away, 24/7, wherever we are in the world. And it's enabling that to make that happen. >> Yeah. >> Dave, thank you so much for really sharing what you think you're excited about for the event and some of the trends in telecom. It sounds like it's such an interesting time to be unpacking this. >> It's going to be a great week. >> It is going to be a great week. All right, for Dave Nicholson, I'm Lisa Martin. You're watching theCUBE, the leader in live tech coverage, covering day one of MWC '23. Stick around. We'll be back with our next guest in just a minute. (bright music resumes) (music fades out)

(upbeat music) >> The market for enterprise servers is large and it generates well north of $100 billion in annual revenue, and it's growing consistently in the mid to high single digit range. Right now, like many segments, the market for servers is, it's like slingshotting, right? Organizations, they've been replenishing their install bases and upgrading, especially at HQs coming out of the isolation economy. But the macro headwinds, as we've reported, are impacting all segments of the market. CIOs, you know, they're tapping the brakes a little bit, sometimes quite a bit and being cautious with both capital expenditures and discretionary opex, particularly in the cloud. They're dialing it down and just being a little bit more, you know, cautious. The market for enterprise servers, it's dominated as you know, by x86 based systems with an increasingly large contribution coming from alternatives like ARM and NVIDIA. Intel, of course, is the largest supplier, but AMD has been incredibly successful competing with Intel because of its focus, it's got an outsourced manufacturing model and its innovation and very solid execution. Intel's frequent delays with its next generation Sapphire Rapid CPUs, now slated for January 2023 have created an opportunity for AMD, specifically AMD's next generation EPYC CPUs codenamed Genoa will offer as many as 96 Zen 4 cores per CPU when it launches later on this month. Observers can expect really three classes of Genoa. There's a standard Zen 4 compute platform for general purpose workloads, there's a compute density optimized Zen 4 package and then a cache optimized version for data intensive workloads. Indeed, the makers of enterprise servers are responding to customer requirements for more diversity and server platforms to handle different workloads, especially those high performance data-oriented workloads that are being driven by AI and machine learning and high performance computing, HPC needs. OEMs like Dell, they're going to be tapping these innovations and try to get to the market early. Dell, in particular, will be using these systems as the basis for its next generation Gen 16 servers, which are going to bring new capabilities to the market. Now, of course, Dell is not alone, there's got other OEM, you've got HPE, Lenovo, you've got ODMs, you've got the cloud players, they're all going to be looking to keep pace with the market. Now, the other big trend that we've seen in the market is the way customers are thinking about or should be thinking about performance. No longer is the clock speed of the CPU the soul and most indicative performance metric. There's much more emphasis in innovation around all those supporting components in a system, specifically the parts of the system that take advantage, for example, of faster bus speeds. We're talking about things like network interface cards and RAID controllers and memories and other peripheral devices that in combination with microprocessors, determine how well systems can perform and those kind of things around compute operations, IO and other critical tasks. Now, the combinatorial factors ultimately determine the overall performance of the system and how well suited a particular server is to handling different workloads. So we're seeing OEMs like Dell, they're building flexibility into their offerings and putting out products in their portfolios that can meet the changing needs of their customers. Welcome to our ongoing series where we investigate the critical question, does hardware matter? My name is Dave Vellante, and with me today to discuss these trends and the things that you should know about for the next generation of server architectures is former CTO from Oracle and EMC and adjunct faculty and Wharton CTO Academy, David Nicholson. Dave, always great to have you on "theCUBE." Thanks for making some time with me. >> Yeah, of course, Dave, great to be here. >> All right, so you heard my little spiel in the intro, that summary, >> Yeah. >> Was it accurate? What would you add? What do people need to know? >> Yeah, no, no, no, 100% accurate, but you know, I'm a resident nerd, so just, you know, some kind of clarification. If we think of things like microprocessor release cycles, it's always going to be characterized as rolling thunder. I think 2023 in particular is going to be this constant release cycle that we're going to see. You mentioned the, (clears throat) excuse me, general processors with 96 cores, shortly after the 96 core release, we'll see that 128 core release that you referenced in terms of compute density. And then, we can talk about what it means in terms of, you know, nanometers and performance per core and everything else. But yeah, no, that's the main thing I would say, is just people shouldn't look at this like a new car's being released on Saturday. This is going to happen over the next 18 months, really. >> All right, so to that point, you think about Dell's next generation systems, they're going to be featuring these new AMD processes, but to your point, when you think about performance claims, in this industry, it's a moving target. It's that, you call it a rolling thunder. So what does that game of hopscotch, if you will, look like? How do you see it unfolding over the next 12 to 18 months? >> So out of the gate, you know, slated as of right now for a November 10th release, AMD's going to be first to market with, you know, everyone will argue, but first to market with five nanometer technology in production systems, 96 cores. What's important though is, those microprocessors are going to be resident on motherboards from Dell that feature things like PCIe 5.0 technology. So everything surrounding the microprocessor complex is faster. Again, going back to this idea of rolling thunder, we expect the Gen 16 PowerEdge servers from Dell to similarly be rolled out in stages with initial releases that will address certain specific kinds of workloads and follow on releases with a variety of systems configured in a variety of ways. >> So I appreciate you painting a picture. Let's kind of stay inside under the hood, if we can, >> Sure. >> And share with us what we should know about these kind of next generation CPUs. How are companies like Dell going to be configuring them? How important are clock speeds and core counts in these new systems? And what about, you mentioned motherboards, what about next gen motherboards? You mentioned PCIe Gen 5, where does that fit in? So take us inside deeper into the system, please. >> Yeah, so if you will, you know, if you will join me for a moment, let's crack open the box and look inside. It's not just microprocessors. Like I said, they're plugged into a bus architecture that interconnect. How quickly that interconnect performs is critical. Now, I'm going to give you a statistic that doesn't require a PhD to understand. When we go from PCIe Gen 4 to Gen 5, which is going to be featured in all of these systems, we double the performance. So just, you can write that down, two, 2X. The performance is doubled, but the numbers are pretty staggering in terms of giga transactions per second, 128 gigabytes per second of aggregate bandwidth on the motherboard. Again, doubling when going from 4th Gen to 5th Gen. But the reality is, most users of these systems are still on PCIe Gen 3 based systems. So for them, just from a bus architecture perspective, you're doing a 4X or 8X leap in performance, and then all of the peripherals that plug into that faster bus are faster, whether it's RAID control cards from RAID controllers or storage controllers or network interface cards. Companies like Broadcom come to mind. All of their components are leapfrogging their prior generation to fit into this ecosystem. >> So I wonder if we could stay with PCIe for a moment and, you know, just understand what Gen 5 brings. You said, you know, 2X, I think we're talking bandwidth here. Is there a latency impact? You know, why does this matter? And just, you know, this premise that these other components increasingly matter more, Which components of the system are we talking about that can actually take advantage of PCIe Gen 5? >> Pretty much all of them, Dave. So whether it's memory plugged in or network interface cards, so communication to the outside world, which computer servers tend to want to do in 2022, controllers that are attached to internal and external storage devices. All of them benefit from this enhancement and performance. And it's, you know, PCI express performance is measured in essentially bandwidth and throughput in the sense of the numbers of transactions per second that you can do. It's mind numbing, I want to say it's 32 giga transfers per second. And then in terms of bandwidth, again, across the lanes that are available, 128 gigabytes per second. I'm going to have to check if it's gigabits or gigabytes. It's a massive number. And again, it's double what PCIe 4 is before. So what does that mean? Just like the advances in microprocessor technology, you can consolidate massive amounts of work into a much smaller footprint. That's critical because everything in that server is consuming power. So when you look at next generation hardware that's driven by things like AMD Genoa or you know, the EPYC processors, the Zen with the Z4 microprocessors, for every dollar that you're spending on power and equipment and everything else, you're getting far greater return on your investment. Now, I need to say that we anticipate that these individual servers, if you're out shopping for a server, and that's a very nebulous term because they come in all sorts of shapes and sizes, I think there's going to be a little bit of sticker shock at first until you run the numbers. People will look at an individual server and they'll say, wow, this is expensive and the peripherals, the things that are going into those slots are more expensive, but you're getting more bang for your buck. You're getting much more consolidation, lower power usage and for every dollar, you're getting a greater amount of performance and transactions, which translates up the stack through the application layer and, you know, out to the end user's desire to get work done. >> So I want to come back to that, but let me stay on performance for a minute. You know, we all used to be, when you'd go buy a new PC, you'd be like, what's the clock speed of that? And so, when you think about performance of a system today and how measurements are changing, how should customers think about performance in these next gen systems? And where does that, again, where does that supporting ecosystem play? >> So if you are really into the speeds and feeds and what's under the covers, from an academic perspective, you can go in and you can look at the die size that was used to create the microprocessors, the clock speeds, how many cores there are, but really, the answer is look at the benchmarks that are created through testing, especially from third party organizations that test these things for workloads that you intend to use these servers for. So if you are looking to support something like a high performance environment for artificial intelligence or machine learning, look at the benchmarks as they're recorded, as they're delivered by the entire system. So it's not just about the core. So yeah, it's interesting to look at clock speeds to kind of compare where we are with regards to Moore's Law. Have we been able to continue to track along that path? We know there are physical limitations to Moore's Law from an individual microprocessor perspective, but none of that really matters. What really matters is what can this system that I'm buying deliver in terms of application performance and user requirement performance? So that's what I'd say you want to look for. >> So I presume we're going to see these benchmarks at some point, I'm hoping we can, I'm hoping we can have you back on to talk about them. Is that something that we can expect in the future? >> Yeah, 100%, 100%. Dell, and I'm sure other companies, are furiously working away to demonstrate the advantages of this next gen architecture. If I had to guess, I would say that we are going to see quite a few world records set because of the combination of things, like faster network interface cards, faster storage cards, faster memory, more memory, faster cache, more cache, along with the enhanced microprocessors that are going to be delivered. And you mentioned this is, you know, AMD is sort of starting off this season of rolling thunder and in a few months, we'll start getting the initial entries from Intel also, and we'll be able to compare where they fit in with what AMD is offering. I'd expect OEMs like Dell to have, you know, a portfolio of products that highlight the advantages of each processor's set. >> Yeah, I talked in my open Dave about the diversity of workloads. What are some of those emerging workloads and how will companies like Dell address them in your view? >> So a lot of the applications that are going to be supported are what we think of as legacy application environments. A lot of Oracle databases, workloads associated with ERP, all of those things are just going to get better bang for their buck from a compute perspective. But what we're going to be hearing a lot about and what the future really holds for us that's exciting is this arena of artificial intelligence and machine learning. These next gen platforms offer performance that allows us to do things in areas like natural language processing that we just couldn't do before cost effectively. So I think the next few years are going to see a lot of advances in AI and ML that will be debated in the larger culture and that will excite a lot of computer scientists. So that's it, AI/ML are going to be the big buzzwords moving forward. >> So Dave, you talked earlier about this, some people might have sticker shocks. So some of the infrastructure pros that are watching this might be, oh, okay, I'm going to have to pitch this, especially in this, you know, tough macro environment. I'm going to have to sell this to my CIO, my CFO. So what does this all mean? You know, if they're going to have to pay more, how is it going to affect TCO? How would you pitch that to your management? >> As long as you stay away from per unit cost, you're fine. And again, we don't have necessarily, or I don't have necessarily insider access to street pricing on next gen servers yet, but what I do know from examining what the component suppliers tell us is that, these systems are going to be significantly more expensive on a per unit basis. But what does that mean? If the server that you're used to buying for five bucks is now 10 bucks, but it's doing five times as much work, it's a great deal, and anyone who looks at it and says, 10 bucks? It used to only be five bucks, well, the ROI and the TCO, that's where all of this really needs to be measured and a huge part of that is going to be power consumption. And along with the performance tests that we expect to see coming out imminently, we should also be expecting to see some of those ROI metrics, especially around power consumption. So I don't think it's going to be a problem moving forward, but there will be some sticker shock. I imagine you're going to be able to go in and configure a very, very expensive, fully loaded system on some of these configurators online over the next year. >> So it's consolidation, which means you could do more with less. It's going to be, or more with the same, it's going to be lower power, less cooling, less floor space and lower management overhead, which is kind of now you get into staff, so you're going to have to sort of identify how the staff can be productive in other areas. You're probably not going to fire people hopefully. But yeah, it sounds like it's going to be a really consolidation play. I talked at the open about Intel and AMD and Intel coming out with Sapphire Rapids, you know, of course it's been well documented, it's late but they're now scheduled for January. Pat Gelsinger's talked about this, and of course they're going to try to leapfrog AMD and then AMD is going to respond, you talked about this earlier, so that game is going to continue. How long do you think this cycle will last? >> Forever. (laughs) It's just that, there will be periods of excitement like we're going to experience over at least the next year and then there will be a lull and then there will be a period of excitement. But along the way, we've got lurkers who are trying to disrupt this market completely. You know, specifically you think about ARM where the original design point was, okay, you're powered by a battery, you have to fit in someone's pocket. You can't catch on fire and burn their leg. That's sort of the requirement, as opposed to the, you know, the x86 model, which is okay, you have a data center with a raised floor and you have a nuclear power plant down the street. So don't worry about it. As long as an 18-wheeler can get it to where it needs to be, we'll be okay. And so, you would think that over time, ARM is going to creep up as all destructive technologies do, and we've seen that, we've definitely seen that. But I would argue that we haven't seen it happen as quickly as maybe some of us expected. And then you've got NVIDIA kind of off to the side starting out, you know, heavy in the GPU space saying, hey, you know what, you can use the stuff we build for a whole lot of really cool new stuff. So they're running in a different direction, sort of gnawing at the traditional x86 vendors certainly. >> Yes, so I'm glad- >> That's going to be forever. >> I'm glad you brought up ARM and NVIDIA, I think, but you know, maybe it hasn't happened as quickly as many thought, although there's clearly pockets and examples where it is taking shape. But this to me, Dave, talks to the supporting cast. It's not just about the microprocessor unit anymore, specifically, you know, generally, but specifically the x86. It's the supporting, it's the CPU, the NPU, the XPU, if you will, but also all those surrounding components that, to your earlier point, are taking advantage of the faster bus speeds. >> Yeah, no, 100%. You know, look at it this way. A server used to be measured, well, they still are, you know, how many U of rack space does it take up? You had pizza box servers with a physical enclosure. Increasingly, you have the concept of a server in quotes being the aggregation of components that are all plugged together that share maybe a bus architecture. But those things are all connected internally and externally, especially externally, whether it's external storage, certainly networks. You talk about HPC, it's just not one server. It's hundreds or thousands of servers. So you could argue that we are in the era of connectivity and the real critical changes that we're going to see with these next generation server platforms are really centered on the bus architecture, PCIe 5, and the things that get plugged into those slots. So if you're looking at 25 gig or 100 gig NICs and what that means from a performance and/or consolidation perspective, or things like RDMA over Converged Ethernet, what that means for connecting systems, those factors will be at least as important as the microprocessor complexes. I imagine IT professionals going out and making the decision, okay, we're going to buy these systems with these microprocessors, with this number of cores in memory. Okay, great. But the real work starts when you start talking about connecting all of them together. What does that look like? So yeah, the definition of what constitutes a server and what's critically important I think has definitely changed. >> Dave, let's wrap. What can our audience expect in the future? You talked earlier about you're going to be able to get benchmarks, so that we can quantify these innovations that we've been talking about, bring us home. >> Yeah, I'm looking forward to taking a solid look at some of the performance benchmarking that's going to come out, these legitimate attempts to set world records and those questions about ROI and TCO. I want solid information about what my dollar is getting me. I think it helps the server vendors to be able to express that in a concrete way because our understanding is these things on a per unit basis are going to be more expensive and you're going to have to justify them. So that's really what, it's the details that are going to come the day of the launch and in subsequent weeks. So I think we're going to be busy for the next year focusing on a lot of hardware that, yes, does matter. So, you know, hang on, it's going to be a fun ride. >> All right, Dave, we're going to leave it there. Thanks you so much, my friend. Appreciate you coming on. >> Thanks, Dave. >> Okay, and don't forget to check out the special website that we've set up for this ongoing series. Go to doeshardwarematter.com and you'll see commentary from industry leaders, we got analysts on there, technical experts from all over the world. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)