>>The cube presents HPE discover 2022 brought to you by HPE. >>Hey everyone. Welcome back to the Cube's continuing coverage of HPE. Discover 22 live from Las Vegas, the Venetian expo center at Lisa Martin and Dave Velante have a very special guest. Next one of our esteemed alumni here on the cube, Antonio Neri, the president and CEO of HPE, Antonio. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. >>Well, thanks for free with us today. >>Great to be back here after three years away. Yeah. Sit on stage yesterday in front of a massive sea of people. The energy here is electric. Yeah. Must have felt great yesterday, but you, you stood on stage three years ago and said buy 20, 22. And here it is. Yeah. We're gonna deliver our entire portfolio as a service. What was it like to be on stage and say we've done that. Here's where we are. We are a new company. >>Well, first of all, as always, I love the cube to cover HP discover, as you said, has been many, many years, and I hope you saw a different company yesterday. I'm really proud of what happened yesterday, because it was a pivotable moment in our journey. If I reflect back in my four years as a CEO, we said the enterprise of the future will be edge centric, cloud enable and data driven in 2018. And I pledged to invest 4 billion over four years. And you see the momentum we have at the edge with our business. And then in 19, to your point, Lisa, we said, by the end of 2022, we will offer everything as a service. When you look at the floor behind us, everything is a as a service experience from the moment you log through IHP GreenLake platform to all the cloud services we offer. So for me, it is a proud moment because our team worked really hard to deliver on that province on the face of a lot of challenges, >>Tremendous challenges, the last couple years that nobody could have predicted or even forecast, how can we tolerate this? Talk to me about your customer conversations and how they have changed and evolved as every company today has to be a data company. >>Well, even this morning, up to this interview, I already met four customers in, in less than an hour and a half. And I will say all of them, first of all, really appreciated bringing HP discover back. And what they really appreciated was the fact that they had the opportunity to meet and greet and talk to people. The energy that comes from that engagement is second to none. And I think says something right about the moment we are at this time, where the return to work and everything else. I think this is a wake up call in many ways, but customers are telling us is that they want to engage with a partner that has a vision that can take them to their journey, whatever that journey is. And we know digital transformation is core to everything, but ultimately they are now more focused on delivering outcomes for the organization they're running in it. And that's why HP GreenLake is incredible well positioned to do so, you >>Know, just picking up on that. I, I, I counted Antonio. I think I've been to 14 HP and HPE discovers when you include Europe. Yeah. I mean, Frankford, London, Barcelona Madrid, of course, you know the us, and I've never seen why I've tweeted this out. I've never seen this type of energy. Right. People are excited to get back. That's part of it. The other big part of it is course the focus. Yeah. So that focus on as a service was a burn, the boat moment for HPV. >>I don't think it was a burn the boat moment. It was a moment that we have to decide how we think about the future and how we become even more relevant for customers. And we are very important to all the customers they buy from us. Right. But I think about the next 3, 5, 10 years, how we position the company, enter the future to be relevant to whatever they need to do. >>Well, what I mean by that is you're not turning back. No, the bridge is gone. You go, you're going forward. And so my question is, did the pandemic accelerate that move or did it, did it hinder it? And, and, and how so >>Actually it was an, a moment for us to think about how we go further and faster to what we call this journey to one, one platform, one experience. And, and we felt as a team, as an organization, this was a unique moment in time to go further, faster. So to us, it was a catalyst to accelerate that transformation. >>Yeah. Now I, I want to ask you a question in your keynote. I love this, cuz you say I'm often asked by customers, what workload should we move to the public cloud and what should stay on prem? I'm like, yeah, I get that question all the time. And I was waiting for the answer. You said, that's the wrong question. And I was like, wait, but that's the question everybody's asking. So it was really interesting that you said that. And I wonder if you could, you could comment. And I think you said basically the world's hybrid is your challenge with, with the customers in this initiative to actually get people to stop asking that question. Right. And not think about that. >>No, I think the challenge we all collectively have is that how we think about data and how we drive what I call a data first modernization, you know, strategy for our customers in an age to cloud architecture, which basically says you are living a hybrid world is not a question which workloads are put in the public cloud, which workloads are put OnPrem. You know, the, all the issues around data gravity and whatnot is a question of how I bring the cloud experience to all your workloads of data, wherever they live. And that's where, you know, the opportunity really exists. And as customers understand more and more about the new environments, how they work, how they enable these new experiences is all driven by that data. And that data has enormous value. So it's not about which cloud use is about how you bring the cloud experience to your data in workloads. >>When you're talking to CIOs, especially transformational CIOs, what's the value pro to those CIOs that wanna transform and need to transform with the power of HPE. >>More and more of them are becoming conscious about the fact that they need to go faster in everything they do. We have done some interesting analysis with the brands that have done a better job or have become way more proficient on extracting insight from the data. They are actually the brands that winning the marketplace, not just with customers driving the preference, but also in the market capitalization because they become where more sophisticated in driving better efficiency, which is a necessity today. Second is the fact that also they need to improve their security aspect of it, but they are creating new experiences and new revenue streams. And those transformational CIOs are transforming their business in the way they run it into more an innovation engine. And so that's why, you know, we love working with them because they are advanced and the push has to think differently in the way we think about the innovation. How >>Do you help customers go from data, rich insight, port to data, rich insight, rich actions, new revenue, streams, new services. >>Well, first of all, you have to deploy the right architecture, which starts with a network, obviously because digital transformation requires an on-ramp and the connectivity is the first step. Second is to make sure you have a true end to end visibility of that data. And that's why we announced yesterday with the data fabric, right? A, a revolutionary way to think about that age to cloud architecture from a data driven perspective. And then the third piece of this is, is the aspect of how we bring that intelligence to that data. And that's where, you know, we are enabling all these amazing services with AI machine learning with, with, you know, HP GreenLake, which is ultimately the way we are gonna enable them. >>What's your favorite announcement from this week? >>I think HP GreenLake, you know, I think I >>Mentioned a lot of GreenLake, >>36 times HP GreenLake. And to me, you know, as I think about what comes next, right, is about how we innovate now on the platform at the pace that customers are demanding. And so for me, there is a lot of things there, but obviously the private cloud enterprise edition was a big moment for us because that's the way we bring the cloud operating experience on-prem and at the edge, but also all the hybrid capabilities that Brian showed during the demo is something that I think customers now say, wow, I didn't know. We can do that. >>And thinking about your business, you know, despite some macro headwinds and, and like you, you reaffirmed your guidance on the, on the last earnings call. Does GreenLake give you better visibility or is it harder to predict? >>No, I think the more we get engaged with customers in running their workloads and data, the more visibility we get, you know, I said, you know, customers voted with the workloads and data. And in, in that context, you know, we already have 65,000 customers more than 120,000 users. And the one interesting stat, which I hope it didn't go lost during that transition was the, the fact that we now have under the GreenLake management over an next bite of data. And so to me, right, that's a unique, a unique opportunity for us to learn and improve the whole cycle. >>So obviously a big pillar of your strategy is the data. And I wanted, if you could talk more about that because I, I would observe, you know, we, the cube started in sort of as big data, you know, started to take off and you saw that had ecosystem and, and that ecosystem has dispersed now. Yeah. So gone into the cloud, it's got snowflakes pulling and some in Mongo. Now you have the opportunity with this ecosystem yeah. To have a data ecosystem. How do you look at the ecosystem and the value that your partners can build on top of GreenLake and specifically monetize? Well, >>If you walk through the floor, one of the things we changed this time is that the partners are actually in the flow of all our solutions, not sitting on a corner of the show floor, right? And, and, and that's because what we have done in the last three years has been together with our partners, but we conceive HP GreenLake with the partners in mind, at the core of everything we do in the platform. And that's why on Monday we announced the new partner one ready vantage program that actually opens the platform through our APIs for allowing them to add their own value on the platform, whether in their own services to the marketplace or the other way around they to use our capabilities in their own solutions. Because some of these cloud operating capabilities are hard to develop, whether it is, you know, metering and billing and all the other services, sometimes you don't don't have to build yourself. So that's why, what we love about our strategies, the partners can decide where to participate in this broad ecosystem and then grow with us and we can grow through them as well. >>So GreenLake as a service, the focus is, is very clear. Hybrid is very clear. What's less clear to me is, is that I'll and I'll ask you to comment, is this, we go a term called super cloud and super cloud is different than multi-cloud multi-cloud oh, I run in AWS or, and, or I run in Azure. I run in, in, in GCP, Supercloud builds a layer above that hides the underlying complexity of the primitives and the APIs, and then builds new value on top of that, out to the edge as well. You guys talk about the edge all the time. You have Aruba a as an asset, you got space space born. You're doing some pretty edge. Like, well, >>We have it here. Yeah. Yeah. We are connected to the ISS. So if you were to that show floor, you can actually see what's being processed today. >>I mean, that's, you don't get more edge than that. So my question is, is, is that part of the vision to actually build that I call super cloud layer? Or is it more to be focused on hybrid and connecting on-prem to the cloud? >>No, I, I don't like to call it super cloud because that means, unless you are a superpower, you can't do what you need to do. I, I think I call it a super straight okay. Right. That we are enabling to our H to cloud architecture. So the customers can build their own experiences and consume the services that they need to compete and win in today's market. So our H to cloud approach is to create that substrate with connectivity, obviously the cloud and the data capability that you need to operate in today's >>Environment. Okay. So they're fair enough. I would say that your customers are gonna build then the super cloud on top of that software. >>Well, actually we want to give it to them. They don't have to build anything. They just need to run the business. Well, they don't have the time to really build stuff. They just need to innovate that's our, our value proposition. So they don't have to waste cycles in doing so if it comes ready to go, why you want to build it? >>Well, when I say build it, I'm talking about building their business on top of it things you're not gonna, I agree with that, bringing their tools, financial services companies with their data, their tools, their ecosystem, connecting OnPrem to the clouds. Yeah. That above that substrate that's their as a digital. >>Yeah. And that's why I said yesterday with our approach, we're actually enabling customers to power the next generation business models that they need. We enable the substrate, they can innovate on the platform, these next gen business models, >>Tap your engineering mind. And I'd like you to talk about how architectures are changing you along with many, many other CEOs signed a letter to, to the us government, you know, urging them to, to, to pass the chips act. As I posted on LinkedIn, there were, there were a few notables missing apple wasn't on there, meta wasn't on there, Tesla wasn't on there. I'd like to see them step up and sign that. Yeah. And so why did you, you know, sign that? Why did you post that? And, and, and why is that important? >>Well, first of all, it's important to customers because obviously they need to get access to technologies in a more ubiquitous way. And second it's important for the United States. We live in a, in a global economy that today is going to a refactoring of sorts where supply chain disruption has caused a lot of consternation and disruption across many industries. And I think, you know, as we think about the next generation supply chains, which are built for resiliency and obviously inclusion, we need to make sure that the United States address this problem. Because once you fall behind, it takes a long time to catch up. Even if we sign the chips act, it's gonna take many years for us, but we need to start now. Otherwise we never get what we need to >>Get. I, I agree. We're late. I think pat Gelsinger has done a very good job laying out the mission, you know, to bring, I mean, to me, it's modest, bring 20% of the manufacturing back to the us by the end of the decade. I mean that that's not gonna be easy, but even so that's, >>That's, we need stuff somewhere. Absolutely. You know, we are great partners with Intel. I really support the vision that path has laid out. And its not just about Intel again, it's about our customers in the United States, >>HP and HPE now cuz H HP labs is part of, of HPE. I believe that's correct state. Well, >>We refocus HP labs as a part of our high performance. Yeah. And AI business. Yes. >>But H HP and, and now HPE possess custom Silicon expertise. We may, we always >>Had. >>Yeah, exactly. And, and you know, with the fabulous world, do you see, I mean, you probably do in some custom Silicon today that I don't really, you know, have visibility on, but do you see getting more into that? Is there a need for >>That? Yeah. Well we already design more than 60 different silicons that are included in our solution. More and more of that. Silicon is actually in support of our other service experience. That's truly programmable for this new way to deploy a cloud or a data fabric or a network in fabric of sorts. When you look our, our age portfolio as a part of green lake through our Aruba set of offerings, we actually have a lot of the Silicon building. Our switching portfolio that's program. Normally give us the ability to drive intelligent routing in the network at the application layer. But also as you know, many years ago, we introduced our own ILO, the lights out technology, the BMC type of support that allows us to provide security to the root of our systems. But now more implement a cloud operating security environment if you will, but there is many more in the analog space for AI at scale. And even the latest introduction with frontier. When you look at frontier that wonderful high performance exit scale system, the, the magic of that is in the Silicon we developed, which is the interconnect fabric. Plus the smart mix at massive massive scale for parallel computing. And then ultimately it's the software environment that we put on top of it. So we can process billion, billion, square transactions per second. >>And when you think about a lot of the AI today is modeling, that's done in the cloud. When you think about the edge actual real time in, you're not gonna send all that back to the cloud. When you have to make a left turn or a right turn, >>Stop sign. I think, you know, people need to realize that 70% of the data today is outside the public cloud and 50% is at the edge. And when you think about the real time use cases, actually 30% of that data will need to be processed real time. So which means you need to establish inference the rate at the edge and at the same time run, you know, the analytics at the edge, whether it's machine learnings or some sort of simulation they need to do at the edge. And so that's why, you know, we can provide inference. We can provide machine learning at the edge on top of the connectivity and the edge compute or cloud computing at the edge. But also we can provide on the other side, AI at scale for massive amount of data analytics. And >>Will that be part of the GreenLake? >>We already offered that experience. We already offered that as a HPC, as a service is one of the key services we provide at scale. And then you also have machine learning operations as a service. So we have both and with the data fabric, now we're gonna take it to one step forward so we can connect the data. And I think one of the most exciting services, I actually, I'm a true believer. That is the capability we develop through HP labs. Since you asked for that early on, which is called the swarm learning technology. Of >>Course. Yeah. I've talked to Dr. GU about there you >>Go. >>So, so he >>Will do a better job than me explaining, >>Hey, I don't know. You're pretty, pretty good at it, but he's awesome. I mean, I have to admit on your keynote, you specifically took the time to mention your support for women's rights. Yes. Will HPE pay for women to leave the state to have a medical procedure? >>Yeah. So what happened last week was a sad moment in a history. I believe we, as a company felt compelled to stand up and take a position on the rights of women to choose. And as a part of that, we already offer as a part of our benefits, the ability to travel and pay all the medical expenses related to their choice. >>Yeah. Well thank you for doing that. I appreciate it. As a, as a father of two daughters who have less rights than, than my wife did when she was their age, I applaud you for your bravery and standing up and, and thank you for doing that. How excited are you for Janet Jackson? >>I think is gonna be a phenomenal rap of the HP discover, I think is gonna be a great moment for people to celebrate the coming together. One of the feedback I got from the meetings early on from customers is that put aside the vision, the strategy, the solutions that they actually can experience themselves is the fact that the, the, the one thing that really appreciated it is that they can be together. They can talk to people, they can learn with each other from each other. That energy is obviously very palpable when you go through it. And I think, you know, the celebration tonight and I want to thank the sponsor for allowing us to do so, is, is the fact that, you know, it's gonna be a moment of reuniting ourselves and look at the Fu at the future with optimism, but have some fun. >>Well, that's great, Antonio, as I said, I've been to a lot of HP and HPE discovers. You've brought a new focus clearly to the company, outstanding job of, of getting people aligned. I mean, it's not easy. It's 60,000, you know, professionals a around the globe and the energy is like I've never seen before. So congratulations. Thank you so much for coming back in the queue. >>Thank you, Dave. And as always, we appreciate you covering the, the event. You, you share the news with all the audiences around the globe here and, and that's, that means us means a lot to us. Thank you. Thank you. >>And thank you for watching. This is Dave Velante for Lisa Martin and John furrier. We'll be right back with our next guest. Live from HPE. Discover 2022 in Las Vegas.

(upbeat music) >> Welcome everyone, this is Stephanie Chan with theCUBE. Recently analyst Dave Ross RADIO entitled, Pat Gelsinger has a vision. It just needs the time, the cash and a miracle where he highlights why he thinks Intel is years away from reversing position in the semiconductor industry. Welcome Dave. >> Hey thanks, Stephanie. Good to see you. >> So, Dave you been following the company closely over the years. If you look at Wall Street Journal most analysts are saying to hold onto Intel. can you tell us why you're so negative on it? >> Well, you know, I'm not a stock picker Stephanie, but I've seen the data there are a lot of... some buys some sells, but most of the analysts are on a hold. I think they're, who knows maybe they're just hedging their bets they don't want to a strong controversial call that kind of sitting in the fence. But look, Intel still an amazing company they got tremendous resources. They're an ICON and they pay a dividend. So, there's definitely an investment case to be made to hold onto the stock. But I would generally say that investors they better be ready to hold on to Intel for a long, long time. I mean, Intel's they're just not the dominant player that it used to be. And the challenges have been mounting for a decade and look competitively Intel's fighting a five front war. They got AMD in both PCs and the data center the entire Arm Ecosystem` and video coming after with the whole move toward AI and GPU they're dominating there. Taiwan Semiconductor is by far the leading fab in the world with terms of output. And I would say even China is kind of the fifth leg of that stool, long term. So, lot of hurdles to jump competitively. >> So what are other sources of Intel's trouble sincere besides what you just mentioned? >> Well, I think they started when PC volumes peaked which was, or David Floyer, Wikibon wrote back in 2011, 2012 that he tells if it doesn't make some moves, it's going to face some trouble. So, even though PC volumes have bumped up with the pandemic recently, they pair in comparison to the wafer volume that are coming out of the Arm Ecosystem, and TSM and Samsung factories. The volumes of the Arm Ecosystem, Stephanie they dwarf the output of Intel by probably 10 X in semiconductors. I mean, the volume in semiconductors is everything. And because that's what costs down and Intel they just knocked a little cost manufacture any anymore. And in my view, they may never be again, not without a major change in the volume strategy, which of course Gelsinger is doing everything he can to affect that change, but they're years away and they're going to have to spend, north of a 100 billion dollars trying to get there, but it's all about volume in the semiconductor game. And Intel just doesn't have it right now. >> So you mentioned Pat Gelsinger he was a new CEO last January. He's a highly respected CEO and in truth employed more than four decades, I think he has knowledge and experience. including 30 years at Intel where he began his career. What's your opinion on his performance thus far besides the volume and semiconductor industry position of Intel? >> Well, I think Gelsinger is an amazing executive. He's a technical visionary, he's an execution machine, he's doing all the right things. I mean, he's working, he was at the state of the union address and looking good in a suit, he's saying all the right things. He's spending time with EU leaders. And he's just a very clear thinker and a super strong strategist, but you can't change Physics. The thing about Pat is he's known all along what's going on with Intel. I'm sure he's watched it from not so far because I think it's always been his dream to run the company. So, the fact that he's made a lot of moves. He's bringing in new management, he's repairing some of the dead wood at Intel. He's launched, kind of relaunched if you will, the Foundry Business. But I think they're serious about that. You know, this time around, they're spinning out mobile eye to throw off some cash mobile eye was an acquisition they made years ago to throw off some more cash to pay for the fabs. They have announced things like; a fabs in Ohio, in the Heartland, Ze in Heartland which is strikes all the right chords with the various politicians. And so again, he's doing all the right things. He's trying to inject. He's calling out his best Andrew Grove. I like to say who's of course, The Iconic CEO of Intel for many, many years, but again you can't change Physics. He can't compress the cycle any faster than the cycle wants to go. And so he's doing all the right things. It's just going to take a long, long time. >> And you said that competition is better positioned. Could you elaborate on why you think that, and who are the main competitors at this moment? >> Well, it's this Five Front War that I talked about. I mean, you see what's happened in Arm changed everything, Intel remember they passed on the iPhone didn't think it could make enough money on smartphones. And that opened the door for Arm. It was eager to take Apple's business. And because of the consumer volumes the semiconductor industry changed permanently just like the PC volume changed the whole mini computer business. Well, the smartphone changed the economics of semiconductors as well. Very few companies can afford the capital expense of building semiconductor fabrication facilities. And even fewer can make cutting edge chips like; five nanometer, three nanometer and beyond. So companies like AMD and Invidia, they don't make chips they design them and then they ship them to foundries like TSM and Samsung to manufacture them. And because TSM has such huge volumes, thanks to large part to Apple it's further down or up I guess the experience curve and experience means everything in terms of cost. And they're leaving Intel behind. I mean, the best example I can give you is Apple would look at the, a series chip, and now the M one and the M one ultra, I think about the traditional Moore's law curve that we all talk about two X to transistor density every two years doubling. Intel's lucky today if can keep that pace up, let's assume it can. But meanwhile, look at Apple's Arm based M one to M one Ultra transition. It occurred in less than two years. It was more like, 15 or 18 months. And it went from 16 billion transistors on a package to over a 100 billion. And so we're talking about the competition Apple in this case using Arm standards improving it six to seven X inside of a two year period while Intel's running it two X. And that says it all. So Intel is on a curve that's more expensive and slower than the competition. >> Well recently, until what Lujan Harrison did with 5.4 billion So it can make more check order companies last February I think the middle of February what do you think of that strategic move? >> Well, it was designed to help with Foundry. And again, I said left that out of my things that in Intel's doing, as Pat's doing there's a long list actually and many more. Again I think, it's an Israeli based company they're a global company, which is important. One of the things that Pat stresses is having a a presence in Western countries, I think that's super important, he'd like to get the percentage of semiconductors coming out of Western countries back up to at least maybe not to where it was previously but by the end of the decade, much more competitive. And so that's what that acquisition was designed to do. And it's a good move, but it's, again it doesn't change Physics. >> So Dave, you've been putting a lot of content out there and been following Intel for years. What can Intel do to go back on track? >> Well, I think first it needs great leadership and Pat Gelsinger is providing that. Since we talked about it, he's doing all the right things. He's manifesting his best. Andrew Grove, as I said earlier, splitting out the Foundry business is critical because we all know Moore's law. This is Right Law talks about volume in any business not just semiconductors, but it's crucial in semiconductors. So, splitting out a separate Foundry business to make chips is important. He's going to do that. Of course, he's going to ask Intel's competitors to allow Intel to manufacture their chips which they very well may well want to do because there's such a shortage right now of supply and they need those types of manufacturers. So, the hope is that that's going to drive the volume necessary for Intel to compete cost effectively. And there's the chips act. And it's EU cousin where governments are going to possibly put in some money into the semiconductor manufacturing to make the west more competitive. It's a key initiative that Pat has put forth and a challenge. And it's a good one. And he's making a lot of moves on the design side and committing tons of CapEx in these new fabs as we talked about but maybe his best chance is again the fact that, well first of all, the market's enormous. It's a trillion dollar market, but secondly there's a very long term shortage in play here in semiconductors. I don't think it's going to be cleared up in 2022 or 2023. It's just going to be keep being an explotion whether it's automobiles and factory devices and cameras. I mean, virtually every consumer device and edge device is going to use huge numbers of semiconductor chip. So, I think that's in Pat's favor, but honestly Intel is so far behind in my opinion, that I hope by the end of this decade, it's going to be in a position maybe a stronger number two position, and volume behind TSM maybe number three behind Samsung maybe Apple is going to throw Intel some Foundry business over time, maybe under pressure from the us government. And they can maybe win that account back but that's still years away from a design cycle standpoint. And so again, maybe in the 2030's, Intel can compete for top dog status, but that in my view is the best we can hope for this national treasure called Intel. >> Got it. So we got to leave it right there. Thank you so much for your time, Dave. >> You're welcome Stephanie. Good to talk to you >> So you can check out Dave's breaking analysis on theCUBE.net each Friday. This is Stephanie Chan for theCUBE. We'll see you next time. (upbeat music)

>> From theCUBE Studios in Palo Alto in Boston, bringing you data-driven insights from theCUBE and ETR, this is "Breaking Analysis" with Dave Vellante. >> If it weren't for Pat Gelsinger, Intel's future would be a disaster. Even with his clear vision, fantastic leadership, deep technical and business acumen, and amazing positivity, the company's future is in serious jeopardy. It's the same story we've been telling for years. Volume is king in the semiconductor industry, and Intel no longer is the volume leader. Despite Intel's efforts to change that dynamic With several recent moves, including making another go at its Foundry business, the company is years away from reversing its lagging position relative to today's leading foundries and design shops. Intel's best chance to survive as a leader in our view, will come from a combination of a massive market, continued supply constraints, government money, and luck, perhaps in the form of a deal with apple in the midterm. Hello, and welcome to this week's "Wikibon CUBE Insights, Powered by ETR." In this "Breaking Analysis," we'll update you on our latest assessment of Intel's competitive position and unpack nuggets from the company's February investor conference. Let's go back in history a bit and review what we said in the early 2010s. If you've followed this program, you know that our David Floyer sounded the alarm for Intel as far back as 2012, the year after PC volumes peaked. Yes, they've ticked up a bit in the past couple of years but they pale in comparison to the volumes that the ARM ecosystem is producing. The world has changed from people entering data into machines, and now it's machines that are driving all the data. Data volumes in Web 1.0 were largely driven by keystrokes and clicks. Web 3.0 is going to be driven by machines entering data into sensors, cameras. Other edge devices are going to drive enormous data volumes and processing power to boot. Every windmill, every factory device, every consumer device, every car, will require processing at the edge to run AI, facial recognition, inference, and data intensive workloads. And the volume of this space compared to PCs and even the iPhone itself is about to be dwarfed with an explosion of devices. Intel is not well positioned for this new world in our view. Intel has to catch up on the process, Intel has to catch up on architecture, Intel has to play catch up on security, Intel has to play catch up on volume. The ARM ecosystem has cumulatively shipped 200 billion chips to date, and is shipping 10x Intel's wafer volume. Intel has to have an architecture that accommodates much more diversity. And while it's working on that, it's years behind. All that said, Pat Gelsinger is doing everything he can and more to close the gap. Here's a partial list of the moves that Pat is making. A year ago, he announced IDM 2.0, a new integrated device manufacturing strategy that opened up its world to partners for manufacturing and other innovation. Intel has restructured, reorganized, and many executives have boomeranged back in, many previous Intel execs. They understand the business and have a deep passion to help the company regain its prominence. As part of the IDM 2.0 announcement, Intel created, recreated if you will, a Foundry division and recently acquired Tower Semiconductor an Israeli firm, that is going to help it in that mission. It's opening up partnerships with alternative processor manufacturers and designers. And the company has announced major investments in CAPEX to build out Foundry capacity. Intel is going to spin out Mobileye, a company it had acquired for 15 billion in 2017. Or does it try and get a $50 billion valuation? Mobileye is about $1.4 billion in revenue, and is likely going to be worth more around 25 to 30 billion, we'll see. But Intel is going to maybe get $10 billion in cash from that, that spin out that IPO and it can use that to fund more FABS and more equipment. Intel is leveraging its 19,000 software engineers to move up the stack and sell more subscriptions and high margin software. He got to sell what he got. And finally Pat is playing politics beautifully. Announcing for example, FAB investments in Ohio, which he dubbed Silicon Heartland. Brilliant! Again, there's no doubt that Pat is moving fast and doing the right things. Here's Pat at his investor event in a T-shirt that says, "torrid, bringing back the torrid pace and discipline that Intel is used to." And on the right is Pat at the State of the Union address, looking sharp in shirt and tie and suit. And he has said, "a bet on Intel is a hedge against geopolitical instability in the world." That's just so good. To that statement, he showed this chart at his investor meeting. Basically it shows that whereas semiconductor manufacturing capacity has gone from 80% of the world's volume to 20%, he wants to get it back to 50% by 2030, and reset supply chains in a market that has become important as oil. Again, just brilliant positioning and pushing all the right hot buttons. And here's a slide underscoring that commitment, showing manufacturing facilities around the world with new capacity coming online in the next few years in Ohio and the EU. Mentioning the CHIPS Act in his presentation in The US and Europe as part of a public private partnership, no doubt, he's going to need all the help he can get. Now, we couldn't resist the chart on the left here shows wafer starts and transistor capacity growth. For Intel, overtime speaks to its volume aspirations. But we couldn't help notice that the shape of the curve is somewhat misleading because it shows a two-year (mumbles) and then widens the aperture to three years to make the curve look steeper. Fun with numbers. Okay, maybe a little nitpick, but these are some of the telling nuggets we pulled from the investor day, and they're important. Another nitpick is in our view, wafers would be a better measure of volume than transistors. It's like a company saying we shipped 20% more exabytes or MIPS this year than last year. Of course you did, and your revenue shrank. Anyway, Pat went through a detailed analysis of the various Intel businesses and promised mid to high double digit growth by 2026, half of which will come from Intel's traditional PC they center in network edge businesses and the rest from advanced graphics HPC, Mobileye and Foundry. Okay, that sounds pretty good. But it has to be taken into context that the balance of the semiconductor industry, yeah, this would be a pretty competitive growth rate, in our view, especially for a 70 plus billion dollar company. So kudos to Pat for sticking his neck out on this one. But again, the promise is several years away, at least four years away. Now we want to focus on Foundry because that's the only way Intel is going to get back into the volume game and the volume necessary for the company to compete. Pat built this slide showing the baby blue for today's Foundry business just under a billion dollars and adding in another $1.5 billion for Tower Semiconductor, the Israeli firm that it just acquired. So a few billion dollars in the near term future for the Foundry business. And then by 2026, this really fuzzy blue bar. Now remember, TSM is the new volume leader, and is a $50 billion company growing. So there's definitely a market there that it can go after. And adding in ARM processors to the mix, and, you know, opening up and partnering with the ecosystems out there can only help volume if Intel can win that business, which you know, it should be able to, given the likelihood of long term supply constraints. But we remain skeptical. This is another chart Pat showed, which makes the case that Foundry and IDM 2.0 will allow expensive assets to have a longer useful life. Okay, that's cool. It will also solve the cumulative output problem highlighted in the bottom right. We've talked at length about Wright's Law. That is, for every cumulative doubling of units manufactured, cost will fall by a constant percentage. You know, let's say around 15% in semiconductor world, which is vitally important to accommodate next generation chips, which are always more expensive at the start of the cycle. So you need that 15% cost buffer to jump curves and make any money. So let's unpack this a bit. You know, does this chart at the bottom right address our Wright's Law concerns, i.e. that Intel can't take advantage of Wright's Law because it can't double cumulative output fast enough? Now note the decline in wafer starts and then the slight uptick, and then the flattening. It's hard to tell what years we're talking about here. Intel is not going to share the sausage making because it's probably not pretty, But you can see on the bottom left, the flattening of the cumulative output curve in IDM 1.0 otherwise known as the death spiral. Okay, back to the power of Wright's Law. Now, assume for a second that wafer density doesn't grow. It does, but just work with us for a second. Let's say you produce 50 million units per year, just making a number up. That gets you cumulative output to $100 million in, sorry, 100 million units in the second year to take you two years to get to that 100 million. So in other words, it takes two years to lower your manufacturing cost by, let's say, roughly 15%. Now, assuming you can get wafer volumes to be flat, which that chart showed, with good yields, you're at 150 now in year three, 200 in year four, 250 in year five, 300 in year six, now, that's four years before you can take advantage of Wright's Law. You keep going at that flat wafer start, and that simplifying assumption we made at the start and 50 million units a year, and well, you get to the point. You get the point, it's now eight years before you can get the Wright's Law to kick in, and you know, by then you're cooked. But now you can grow the density of transistors on a chip, right? Yes, of course. So let's come back to Moore's Law. The graphic on the left says that all the growth is in the new stuff. Totally agree with that. Huge term that Pat presented. Now he also said that until we exhaust the periodic table of elements, Moore's Law is alive and well, and Intel is the steward of Moore's Law. Okay, that's cool. The chart on the right shows Intel going from 100 billion transistors today to a trillion by 2030. Hold that thought. So Intel is assuming that we'll keep up with Moore's Law, meaning a doubling of transistors every let's say two years, and I believe it. So bring that back to Wright's Law, in the previous chart, it means with IDM 2.0, Intel can get back to enjoying the benefits of Wright's Law every two years, let's say, versus IDM 1.0 where they were failing to keep up. Okay, so Intel is saved, yeah? Well, let's bring into this discussion one of our favorite examples, Apple's M1 ARM-based chip. The M1 Ultra is a new architecture. And you can see the stats here, 114 billion transistors on a five nanometer process and all the other stats. The M1 Ultra has two chips. They're bonded together. And Apple put an interposer between the two chips. An interposer is a pathway that allows electrical signals to pass through it onto another chip. It's a super fast connection. You can see 2.5 terabytes per second. But the brilliance is the two chips act as a single chip. So you don't have to change the software at all. The way Intel's architecture works is it takes two different chips on a substrate, and then each has its own memory. The memory is not shared. Apple shares the memory for the CPU, the NPU, the GPU. All of it is shared, meaning it needs no change in software unlike Intel. Now Intel is working on a new architecture, but Apple and others are way ahead. Now let's make this really straightforward. The original Apple M1 had 16 billion transistors per chip. And you could see in that diagram, the recently launched M1 Ultra has $114 billion per chip. Now if you take into account the size of the chips, which are increasing, and the increase in the number of transistors per chip, that transistor density, that's a factor of around 6x growth in transistor density per chip in 18 months. Remember Intel, assuming the results in the two previous charts that we showed, assuming they were achievable, is running at 2x every two years, versus 6x for the competition. And AMD and Nvidia are close to that as well because they can take advantage of TSM's learning curve. So in the previous chart with Moore's Law, alive and well, Intel gets to a trillion transistors by 2030. The Apple ARM and Nvidia ecosystems will arrive at that point years ahead of Intel. That means lower costs and significantly better competitive advantage. Okay, so where does that leave Intel? The story is really not resonating with investors and hasn't for a while. On February 18th, the day after its investor meeting, the stock was off. It's rebound a little bit but investors are, you know, they're probably prudent to wait unless they have really a long term view. And you can see Intel's performance relative to some of the major competitors. You know, Pat talked about five nodes in for years. He made a big deal out of that, and he shared proof points with Alder Lake and Meteor Lake and other nodes, but Intel just delayed granite rapids last month that pushed it out from 2023 to 2024. And it told investors that we're going to have to boost spending to turn this ship around, which is absolutely the case. And that delay in chips I feel like the first disappointment won't be the last. But as we've said many times, it's very difficult, actually, it's impossible to quickly catch up in semiconductors, and Intel will never catch up without volume. So we'll leave you by iterating our scenario that could save Intel, and that's if its Foundry business can eventually win back Apple to supercharge its volume story. It's going to be tough to wrestle that business away from TSM especially as TSM is setting up shop in Arizona, with US manufacturing that's going to placate The US government. But look, maybe the government cuts a deal with Apple, says, hey, maybe we'll back off with the DOJ and FTC and as part of the CHIPS Act, you'll have to throw some business at Intel. Would that be enough when combined with other Foundry opportunities Intel could theoretically produce? Maybe. But from this vantage point, it's very unlikely Intel will gain back its true number one leadership position. If it were really paranoid back when David Floyer sounded the alarm 10 years ago, yeah, that might have made a pretty big difference. But honestly, the best we can hope for is Intel's strategy and execution allows it to get competitive volumes by the end of the decade, and this national treasure survives to fight for its leadership position in the 2030s. Because it would take a miracle for that to happen in the 2020s. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks to David Floyer for his contributions to this research. Always a pleasure working with David. Stephanie Chan helps me do much of the background research for "Breaking Analysis," and works with our CUBE editorial team. Kristen Martin and Cheryl Knight to get the word out. And thanks to SiliconANGLE's editor in chief Rob Hof, who comes up with a lot of the great titles that we have for "Breaking Analysis" and gets the word out to the SiliconANGLE audience. Thanks, guys. Great teamwork. Remember, these episodes are all available as podcast wherever you listen. Just search "Breaking Analysis Podcast." You'll want to check out ETR's website @etr.ai. We also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com. You could always get in touch with me on email, david.vellante@siliconangle.com or DM me @dvellante, and comment on my LinkedIn posts. This is Dave Vellante for "theCUBE Insights, Powered by ETR." Have a great week. Stay safe, be well, and we'll see you next time. (upbeat music)