from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante predictions are all the rage at this time of year now on december 29th 2020 in collaboration with eric porter bradley of enterprise technology research etr we put forth our predictions for 2021 and the focus of our prognostications included tech spending remote work productivity apps cyber security ipos specs m a data architecture cloud hybrid cloud multi-cloud ai containers automation and semiconductors we covered a lot of ground now over the past several weeks we've been inundated with literally thousands of inbound emails pitching us on various predictions and trends in these and other areas here's my predictions folder and this is only a portion of the documents that i've received by email obviously printed them out killed a few trees sorry hello and welcome to this week's wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we're going to review briefly each of our predictions for this past year 2021 and suggest a grade as to how we did we're going to do this as a little warm up for our 2022 predictions which we'll be doing in the next over the next couple of weeks now before we dig in i want to make an observation many of the predictions that we received they were observations of trends and sometimes not really predictions or you know or not surprising we got a lot of self-serving marketing statements you know predictions in our view they should be measurable so you can look back and say okay did they get it right now granted there are gray areas so that's why we'll use a grading system today now there are also many really well done and thought-provoking predictions and there's an example of one that we received that is strong it's from equinix cio milan waglay who said within the decade data centers will be powered by a hundred percent renewable energy okay so you know that's clear and we can measure that but anyway thanks to all the pr folks who sent along like i said literally thousands of predictions we tried to read them all but the volume over the past week or so was just so overwhelming and we'll try to scan them before we do our 2022 predictions but today we want to do that warm up by evaluating how we did in 2021 so let's get started our first prediction was that tech spending would increase by four percent this year coming off of what we had thought was a contraction in 2020 and depending on which data you look at you know best case maybe was flat we definitely correctly called the continuation into 2022 of the remote work trend and the positive impact it would have on pcs and the like but we underestimated the shape of that rebound that that spend back curve idc has tech spending wrote this year at five and a half percent so we feel like while we called the bounce back it was more pronounced than we had thought in fact you know we think that idc number is probably going to go up even higher and we'll address that in our 2022 predictions so so we'll give ourselves a b minus here okay next prediction was remote worker trends become fossilized settling in at an average of 34 percent by year end 2021. so on average 34 of the workers would be remote by the end of this year now you know we made the call but we missed delta no we missed omacrom we said 34 remote which would be 2x the historical norms now the etr data suggests it was 52 in september and it's probably going to be somewhere in the 40 to 45 range by by the end of this month into december and the thing is 75 of the workforce is probably still working either fully remote or in a hybrid model and hybrid work is probably going to be the dominant trend and we're going to have to revisit that framework or how we think about this whole structure and we'll do that again in our 2022 predictions so we'll give ourselves a c on that one we'll take some credit for the permanence of the trend but the percentage was well off the mark you know thanks to the variance as well as some cultural shifts that whole hybrid notion okay so hey not really a great start for eric and me but we rebound with the next one the productivity increases we said seen in 2020 will lead organizations to double down on the successes and certain productivity apps will benefit so to measure this we said let's take a look at the most recent quarterly earnings and gauge the revenue growth year on year as an indicator docusign was up 42 smartsheet who we also called up was up 46 in revenue twilio up 65 zoom growth was 35 down from 325 confirming our layup call the zoom growth would moderate it had nowhere to go but down and microsoft teams has never been more ubiquitous has never seen greater adoption with hundreds of companies having a hundred thousand or more users and thousands of companies with ten thousand users or more so we really feel like we nailed this one so we're gonna give us give ourselves an a plus okay so now on to cyber it's an area that we've been making calls in for a couple of years now and we're really pleased looking back here we said permanent shifts in cso strategies are going to lead to share shifts in network security now we said to give you more detail maybe that sounds like an easy one but we said specifically identity cloud security and endpoint security would continue to benefit and we specifically named crowdstrike octa zscaler and a few others that are targeting their growth rates now gartner has the security market growing at 11 percent octa and zscaler revenues last quarter grew at 62 percent year over year crowdstrike 63 illumia we also called out they raised 225 million dollars on a 2.75 billion valuation on the strength of its growth that was in september now akamai acquired guardiocor for 600 million dollars another company we called out that they would do it they did that as a ransomware protection play and they paid a huge revenue multiple for the company and it seems the guys listed on the last line are all talking about subscriptions sas arr remaining performance obligations or rpo so we feel very good about this look back we'll take an a on this one no it's not an a plus because we're too conservative on the growth of octa crowdstrike and zscaler topping at 50 they they blew that away by another 10 points or so 10 to 15. but look pretty good call nonetheless okay again the next one you might feel like is a layup but not really so we said the increased tech spend would drive even more ipos spax and m a according to spac analytics ipos were up 109 this year the spac attack continued up 109 percent in 2021 on top of a record 2020 and according to kpmg m a dollar volume was up 19 okay you might say uh that was easy call but there was much more underneath this prediction we called out uipass ipo which was a lock but also said automation anywhere would go public uipath did aa didn't we did correctly call the hashicorp ipo we said they'd either get go ipo or get acquired and cloud flare grew revenue 219 percent last quarter but akamai was not acquired so the degree of difficulty on the overall prediction wasn't high but the automation anywhere in akamai events we made those calls that didn't happen and those were you know obviously tougher calls so we think this still deserves a b grade all right as you know data is one of our favorite subjects and we've reported extensively in the successes and failures of so-called big data we said next in the next prediction that in the 2020s 75 percent of large organizations will re-architect their big data platforms and we said this would occur you know in earnest over the next four to five years now again you may say duh dave but you have to evaluate the prediction based on the underlying comments here the jury is still out on things like snowflakes data cloud but we absolutely believe that it's the right direction but then you have then you have data bricks coming in taking a different approach they're coming at the problem from a data science angle trying to take on traditional bi and then you get snowflake coming from the analytics space and moving into ai and data science and you know we asked at aws aws re invent we asked benoit dejaville on the cube if there needs to be a semantic layer to bring these two worlds together and he said yes and that's what he claims snowflake is building meanwhile you got the big whales like oracle they continue to invest in their capabilities to try to eliminate data movement and then there's aws taking a totally different approach to data where it gives customers maximum optionality of offerings and database and other services and you can't forget microsoft and google so many customers might not take the steps that we predicted because they're comfortable where they are specifically we're talking about here a shift toward domain ownership and data product thinking and the reorganization of hyper-specialized technical teams many of the principles put forth by data mesh and we've said this change is going to take a number of years to play out four to five years so we start noticing in 2021 that that's clearly been the case as we reported on parts of jpmorgan chase uh rethinking its data architecture hellofresh and many others so this is still an incomplete the professor we'll give ourselves an incomplete on this one but we think it's trending in the right direction okay the next one is always fun discussion that's the battle to define hybrid and multi-cloud we said that's going to escalate in 2021 and we'll create bifurcated cio strategies now here we go aws sees the world as bringing its apis and primitives and model to the edge and the data center to aws is just another edge node and the company says that in still believes in the fullness of time that all data will be in the cloud however that's defined and aws awareness would say all this talk about hybrid of connecting on-prem to a cloud they would flat out say adam silipsky told us this that's not cloud is what he said then on the other side of the table you have the likes of cisco dell hpe etc saying hold on cloud is an operating model it's not a place and aws might say yeah and aws along with its customers is defining that operating model and these other guys would say no actually you're not we are with our customers and this battle 100 percent escalated in 2021 with the launch of apex by dell hp e double down on green lake cisco's as the service models and then of course oracle which actually announced a true same same public to on-prem hybrid capability two years before aws announced outpost and of course oracle's executing on that strategy in earnest in 2021 and the other nuance here is a concept that we introduced called super cloud which refers to the notion that look something like for example multi-cloud is not about running within a respective cloud it's not about cloud compatibility rather it's about abstracting the complexity of the underlying cloud primitives and building value on top of those cloud services on top of the investments in capex that the hyperscalers have made now some people didn't like the term super cloud maybe uber cloud would be a better term we're going to continue to use it to describe this capability we think it has meaning and we're seeing new examples like goldman sachs's financial cloud running on top of aws so a super cloud is not as an application or a suite of applications running on a single cloud now if those applications span multiple clouds like like snowflake is trying to do okay that's a service that could span multiple clouds or in the case of goldman sachs it's a portfolio of data tools and software that's made accessible as a service that floats on top of a single or even multiple clouds regardless we feel that this was a correct call given the evidence and we'll give ourselves an a minus taking points off for the somewhat anecdotal and observational measurement system that we apply to look back at this prediction okay the next prediction was we made was cloud containers ai and ml automation uh are gonna power that those big four are gonna power 2021 spending here's a graphic we use to predict that it plots survey data for the various technologies within the etr taxonomy net score or spending momentum on the vertical axis and market share or presence in the data set it's a pervasive measurement on the horizontal axis the one that matters here is the vertical that dotted line of 40 percent anything above that is considered highly elevated and these four areas have held served this year based on recent etr survey data that we're not showing here we'll we'll bring that into our 2022 prediction so this prediction came in correctly for the most recent survey data and that's our measurement system on this one so we're going to take an a for this one too now on the penelope ultimate prediction here we came back to automation saying that the automation mandate accelerates in 2021 uipath and automation anywhere we said would go public but microsoft remains a threat to these pure play rpa vendors well we gave ourselves a b on this one doubling down on automation anywhere going public you know that was wrong but we definitely saw this year companies leaning hard into automation and microsoft despite the fact that it doesn't have as feature rich a product and offering as uipath and automation anywhere microsoft remains a very large presence you know we spoke to a lot of customers at the uipath forward four event in october in las vegas physical event and they confirmed you know this is true but at the same time so they're using power automate from microsoft but also using in this case uipath so they've kind of confirmed that yeah it's not the same we use that for some of our productivity we're an azure customer it's easy for us but they're still leaning heavily and investing heavily into uipath and i think the same can be said for automation anywhere but autom but power automate shows up as a big time leader in the magic gartner magic quadrant so it can't be ignored but clearly the two leaders in rpa have a sizable product advantage relative to the legacy software players now if you look at the comment on pega systems they cooled off a bit as measured by their stock price their revenue grew 13 percent last quarter on a year-on-year basis but perhaps we overestimated the tailwind effect and the company's momentum so we'll take a b on this prediction correct call on the automation trend and the big software vendors piling in ibm et cetera but the chance we took on automation anywhere again was a miss so we'll dig ourselves on that and our last prediction for 2021 was 5g rollouts push new edge iot workloads and necessitate new system architectures now much of this prediction you can see in the underlying bullets here really related to the observation that arm was dominating at the edge it would find its way into the mainstream enterprise workloads and we've been asking a lot of the mainstream you know companies the oems you know what do you what do you see with with arm in the enterprise and they say yeah we don't see it yet but very clearly this came into focus in 2021 is aws announced graviton 3 now and new inference and new training silicon these are different types of workloads that are emerging in the enterprise these are all based on arm microsoft google alibaba oracle and others are now shipping or readying arm-based systems for the enterprise when you look at new storage network and security appliances and other systems they're very offering and often including arm-based processors to assist with the offloads and look intel is definitely under product under pressure as we've predicted many times not just in our predictions post even pat gelsinger has admitted this is a turnaround it's going to take at least five years that's kind of new and recent data that he's made public so we're going to take an a minus on this one we're going to take off some points for the fact that you know 5g rollouts in edge are evolving and this is a longer term trend but the underlying points that we made on this slide are still pretty solid now if we use the following scale where a plus is a hundred out of a hundred a minus is a 90 a b is an 85 a b minus is an 80 and a c is a 75 out of 100 and we exclude that incomplete prediction on data architectures we average out to an 87.8 so that's a solid b plus and so the professor in us said hey little yellow sticky good effort as most of the predictions could be quantified and or you know we tried to object objectively score them there were some layups in there so yeah maybe we'll try to take more risks uh you know or not you know we we we'll see we like winning and so you know you always have to couch some of these things with some obvious ones but but really try to give some detail underneath that's maybe non-obvious um and we'll try to keep it down in the legs we did this year to one or two multi-year predictions so what's next well eric bradley and i were working on our 2022 predictions we're going to release those in the next couple of weeks so stay tuned for that you know what do you think how did we do you know we're grading ourselves here love to know you know for we're off base on base we're too hard on ourselves too easy give us your feedback don't forget these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen all you do is search breaking analysis podcast check out etr's website at etr dot plus remember we also publish a full report every week on wikibon.com and siliconangle.com you can always get in touch with email david.velante at siliconangle.com you can dm me at divalante or comment on our linkedin posts this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr have a great week everybody stay safe be well we'll see you next time [Music] you