from the cube studios in palo alto in boston bringing you data driven insights from the cube and etr this is breaking analysis with dave vellante over the past 150 days virtually everybody that i know in the technology industry has become an expert on covid in some way shape or form we've all lived the reality that covet 19 has accelerated by at least two years many trends that were in motion well before the virus hit the cyber security sector is no exception and one of the best examples where we have witnessed the accelerated change hello everyone and welcome to this week's episode of wikibon cube insights powered by etr in this breaking analysis we'll update you on the all-important security sector which remains one of the top spending priorities for organizations and i want to give you a shout out to my colleague eric bradley from etr who gave me some really good data and some macro insights as well as some anecdotal data from csos for this episode let's take a look at the big picture first now for many years we've talked about the shifting patterns in networking moving from what's often referred to as a north-south architecture meaning a hierarchical network that supports you know age-old organizational structures well today the network is flattening into what they often refer to as an east-west model and the moat or perimeter it's been vaporized the perimeter is now wherever the user is and users are at home or they're at their beach houses thanks to kovid now this is a bad actor's dream as the threat surfaced has expanded by orders of magnitude and as we've said in the past the adversary is well funded extremely capable and highly motivated because the roi of infiltration and exfiltration is outstanding the cso's job quite simply stated is to lower that return on investment now the other big trend that we see is that the cloud and sas are reducing reliance on hardware-based solutions like traditional firewalls because so many workers are now at home they're in their accessing sensitive data identity and endpoint security are exploding xdr or extended detection and response and zero trust networks are on the rise organizations are increasingly relying on analytics and automation to detect and remediate threats you know alerts just don't cut it anymore i need action and so to do so they're turning to a number of best of breed point products that have the potential to become the next great security platforms and this is setting up an epic battle between hot startups that are growing very very quickly and entrenched incumbents that really aren't going to go down without a fight finally while security is clearly a top spending priority customers and their cfos continue to be somewhat circumspect with respect to how much they allocate toward security budgets especially in the context of a shrinking i.t spending climate that we have said is dropping between five and eight percent in 2020. now security is critical but even in these times spending is governed by these tight budgets well cyber remains a top category in the etr taxonomy in terms of its presence in the data set what this chart tells us is that cios and i.t buyers have other priorities that they have to fund this data shows a comparison of net scores over three survey dates october of last year april and july net score remember is an indicator of momentum which is calculated by subtracting the percent of customers spending less on the technology from those spending more it's more complicated than that but that's that's the basics and you can see that at a 29 net score the security sector is just one of many priorities that i.t buyers face now remember this is the july survey and it's asking customers are you planning to spend more or less in the second half of 2020 relative to the first half and it's a forward-looking metric so what may be happening here is that the height of the lockdown and in the u.s anyway and the pivot to work from home organizations were spending heavily and are now fine-tuning those investments and maybe addressing other digital priorities let's look back and do some pre and post-covet assessments of various players within the etr data set i'm gonna go fairly quickly through these next slides but i want to give you a perspective as to how the security landscape and the vendor momentum has changed in the past eight months first i'm going to take you back to the january data set we actually originally did this exercise last year and then we updated it right at the beginning of 2020. the chart shows the top-ranked cyber security companies based on two metrics the left-hand side sorts the data and ranks companies based on net score or spending momentum and the right-hand side shows the ranking by shared n which is a measure of the pervasiveness of a company in the data set i.e the number of mentions that they get in the sector and what we did is we gave four stars to those companies that showed up in the top of both of those rankings and two stars to those that were close so you can see that microsoft splunk palo alto and proofpoint as well as octa and crowdstrike and then we added z scalar in january as new and then cyber arc software all got four stars then we gave cisco and fortinet two stars now this next chart shows the same thing at the height of the u.s lockdown now you may say okay what's the difference there's still microsoft palo alto proof point octa cyber arc z scaler and crowdstrike at four stars with cisco and fortnite having two star stars splunk fell off but that's it well what's different is instead of making the cut the top 22 which we did last time we narrowed it down to the top ten in order for a company to make that grade so if we had done that in january octa crowdstrike zscaler and cyberark they wouldn't have made the cut but in april they did as their presence in the dataset grew and we strongly believe this is a direct result of the work from home pivot crowdstrike endpoint octa identity access management z-scaler cloud security and they're disrupting traditional appliance-based firewalls now just to note we placed dell emc which was rsa and ibm in the list just for context now let's take a look at the most recent july survey now a lot of i'm out on a limb a little bit here because many of these companies they haven't reported yet so we don't have full visibility on their business outlook but we show the same data for the most recent survey the red line that you see there is the top 10 cutoff point and you can see splunk which didn't make the cut in april is back on the four-star list it's very possible buyers took a pause last quarter and focused attention on work from home but splunk continues to impress as it shifts toward the subscription model that we've talked about in the past splunk has a very strong hold on the sim space but everyone wants a piece of splunk especially some of the traditional firewall companies who they're seeing their hardware business dying so we're watching the competition from these players but also some other players like tennable now proof point fell off the four-star list because its net score didn't make the top ten crowdstrike cyber arc and zscaler also fell back because they dropped below the top 10 in shared in but we still really like these companies and expect them to continue to do well you know it could be some anomalies in the survey but we're trying to be as transparent as possible with you share the data listen to it interpret it and really adjust our models accordingly each quarter now let me make a few points and try to interpret what might be happening here first i want to point out octa pops to the top of the net score ranking overtaking crowdstrike's momentum from the last survey now one customer in the financial services sector told eric bradley on a recent then we're seeing amazing things from octa but the traditional firewall companies are stepping into identity they may not be best of breed but they have a level of integration and that's appealing to this individual this person also specifically called out palo alto and fortinet is trying to encroach on that space so keep your eyes on that now crowdstrike has declined noticeably which surprised us z z scalar is actually showing more momentum relative to the last survey so that's a positive palo alto and microsoft are consistently holding serve and continue to be leaders proof point and cyber arc are showing a bit of a velocity drop and sales point and tenable are also catching our attention in this survey and of course sales sale point which is identity management had a great quarter and reinstituted its guidance giving us the benefit of hindsight on its performance so it was actually pretty easy to give them two stars now just a side note by the way we've cut the data here with those companies that have more than 50 mentions in the sector we didn't do that the first time we did this we allowed companies with less than 50. so we're trying to tighten that up a bit so we still maintain strongly that you're seeing cloud endpoint and identity as the big security themes here csos need tools to be responsive they don't want to just get an alert secops pros would rather immediately shut off access and risk pissing off a user than getting hacked and companies are increasingly turning to ai to detect and they're relying on automation to remediate or protect and fence off critical resources let's now look at the two players or players in our two-dimensional view followers of this program know that we like to plot vendors within a sector across two of our favorite metrics net score or spending momentum which is a simple metric that tracks those spending more versus less on the technology and market share which measu measures a vendor's pervasiveness in the data set and it's calculated by taking the number of mentions a vendor gets within a sector divided by the total responses what we show here are the key security players that we've highlighted over the last several quarters let me start with microsoft microsoft has consistently performed well in the security sector as well as other parts of the etr taxonomy as you know they have a huge presence in the survey which is indicated on the horizontal axis and you can see they have a very solid net score which is shown on the y-axis impressive for a company their size now one interesting thing is you don't see aws in this chart and it's because aws and microsoft at least so far have somewhat different strategies with respect to security microsoft with its long application software history and sas presence across office 365 and sharepoint etc with active directory has been really focused on selling security solutions to directly protect its apps they have offerings like defender atp which is advanced threat protection sentinel which is microsoft sim cloud offering azure identity access management and the company's really going hard after this space now aws of course prioritizes security but they don't show an etr data set the same way microsoft does it's almost like aws is hiding in plain sight look aws has always put a great deal of emphasis on security and securing its infrastructure like the s3 buckets and it's you know it announced iam for ec2 way back in 2012. and last year at its reinforced conference you saw an impressive focus on security in a burgeoning security ecosystem in fact when you think of getting started in aws you really think about three things ec2 s3 and iam so i'd expect to see aws really become more prominent over time in the data set now i'll spend a minute talking about octa for the first time since we've been analyzing the security space with etr data octa has the highest net score at 58 percent it had consistently been crowdstrike with this moniker and the momentum lead the company though is dropped in this quarter survey and that's something that we're watching and by the way we're not implying that octa and crowdstrike are direct competitors they're not now as you can see nonetheless that crowdstrike z scalar and sales point sale sale point show very elevated net scores and we've plotted tenable here which is also showing some strength so you can see the respective positions of proof point and fortinet these are more mature companies they were founded in the early part of the century so you'd expect them to have somewhat lower net scores given their history and maturity and then there's cisco they've got a huge presence in the data and big in security cisco's doing really well in that space it consistently grows its security business in the double digits each quarter and it's a real feather in the cisco portfolio cap this is important because cisco's traditional hardware business continues to come under pressure splunk we talked about a lot and it's no surprise at their leadership position but i want to talk a little bit more about palo alto networks here's a company that we've talked about quite a bit in the past they are a tier one player in security they got great service csos want to work with them because they are thought leaders they're like a gold standard and have an impressive portfolio of great solutions but their traditional firewall business is coming under pressure for the reasons that we discussed earlier now palo alto has expanded its portfolio into the cloud and with prisma the company's suite of security services it will maintain a leadership position in our view but palo alto networks as we've discussed had some missteps with its product transition its sales execution and some of some challenges with its pricing models and it hurt their stock price but we've always said that they would work through these issues and that that was a buying opportunity the other thing about palo alto is you know they're considered the expensive choice you got to pay for that gold standard but that's what customers you know will tell us and so you're paying up for those top tier offerings but that's a sort of two-edged sword for palo alto here's an example why people often compare fortinet to palo alto and as we've shared in previous segments the valuation divergence between palo alto and fortinet where the the latter was making a smoother transition to its future and people often tell us that fortinet well you know maybe it's considered not as elite as palo alto they are a value choice their stuff just works and fortinet is a great alternative to palo alto and that has served them very well now let's take a closer look at the valuations of some of these companies we started off this segment by saying that the pandemic has affected every sector and especially cyber security so the next chart that we're showing here is the progression of key valuation metrics since earlier this year what we show are the valuations of nine of the companies in the sector since mid-february the data tracks their respective valuations their revenue multiples their growth rates in both value and revenue revenue growth is shown in the last column for the most recent quarterly report now the companies in red have yet to report the report any day now so he said i'm flying a little bit blind here and we'll have to take a look after the earnings to see how the survey data aligns with the actual results but let me make a few points here first here's the s p in nasdaq performance you see it in february in june and august pandemic recession what are you talking about you'd never know it looking at this data the nasdaq especially is up 14 said since mid february which is quite astounding next i want to come back to the discussion about palo alto and fortinet fortinet already has reported this quarter and palo alto has not but you can see based on the revenue multiples highlighted in red that the valuation divergence is starting to shrink a little bit and we'll see if that holds up after palo alto reports now the big eye popper in this chart is the valuation increases from february to august for octa crowdstrike and z scalar 52 67 and 104 percent increase respectively now you can't say we didn't warn you that these companies were all well positioned when we reported last year and in our january episode but i did say actually to be honest in the last episode that these three i thought were getting a little expensive that was a couple months ago and since then they've continued to run up so if you've been waiting for an entry point based on my advice well i'm sorry for that but look at the revenue multiples look at the expansion in the orange octa goes from 34x to 52x crowdstrike from 39x to 66x z scalar 25x to 43x i mean wow let's see what happens after these three report by this time i would have hoped that they'd taken a little breather maybe over the summer and you could have jumped in to these stocks but they just keep going up and despite the decline in net score for crowdstrike i still really like all three of these companies and feel that they're very well positioned from a product standpoint and customer feedback perspective and finally i want to mention sale point which we said last time was one to watch sale point crushed its quarter bringing in some large deals and providing forward guidance nearly a 50 percent valuation increase since february in a revenue multiple expansion from last quarter where the street last quarter wasn't really thrilled with their numbers but identity management is hot and so now is sales point from the streets perspective the last thing i'll say here is watch the growth rates expectations are very high for some of these companies and the street will cream any of them that misses now that may be your opportunity to jump in because i like these companies i think they're disruptors but as always do your research and watch out for the big whales trying to freeze the markets on these guys all right let's wrap up we've covered a lot of ground today and surf the landscape a little bit so look the trend is plain as day the move to sas is entrenched and by the way this isn't necessarily all good news for buyers cios and cfos tell me that the dark side of capex to opex is unpredictable bills but the flexibility and business value gained is outweighing the downside and every vendor in this space is transitioning into a sas and annual recurring revenue model we believe the remote work trend is here to stay organizations are re-architecting their business around work from home and we think that they're seeing some real benefits they've made investments and it's driving new modes of work and productivity they're not just going to throw away those investments why should they what just to go back to the old way it's not going to happen and if we as we've said previously look the internet it's like the new private network so you've got a question vpns and sd-wan they start to look like stop gaps and of course you know the cloud endpoint security cloud-based iam they are clearly winning in the marketplace you know we're also seeing new security regimes emerge where the cso and the secops team are not this island we we've seen even some csos falling back under the cio which used to be taboo he used to be thought of that's like the fox guarding the hen house but this idea of shared responsibility is not just between the cloud providers and the secops teams because security is a board level priority everyone in the business is becoming more aware more attuned and despite the millennials fascination with and undotted courage when it comes to tick tock i digress now the last two points are interesting i remember reading a post by john oltzek who was an esg security analyst and he predicted last year that integrated suites would win out over the buffet of point products on the market and you know generally i i agreed with that assessment but look at least in the near term and probably mid-term that doesn't seem to be happening as we we've seen these hot companies really take off the ones that we've highlighted now these companies have ambitions beyond selling products and they would bristle at me lumping them into point products their boards are going after platform plays so they're on a collision course with each other and the big guys this should be fun to watch because the big integrated companies are well funded they got great cash flow they got large customer bases and and i've said they're not going down without a fight so i would expect eventually there's going to be more of an equilibrium to what seems to be right now a bifurcated and unbalanced market today so you're going to see more m a activity expect that however at these valuations some of these companies that we've highlighted they're becoming acquisition proof as such they'd better keep innovating or they're going to be in big trouble all right that's it for today remember these episodes are all available as podcasts wherever you listen so please subscribe i publish weekly on wikibon.com we've added in the wikibon menu bar a breaking analysis link that has all the episodes in there i also publish on siliconangle.com so check that out and please do comment on my linkedin posts don't forget to check out etr.plus for all the survey action get in touch on twitter i'm at d vellante or email me at david.vellante at siliconangle.com this is dave vellante for the cube insights powered by etr thanks for watching everybody be well and we'll see you next time [Music] you